The Rationale With A Lot Of These Investors Is That Prices Will Keep Going Up
A report from Morningstar. “Real Estate sales in Canada are booming and as a result, prices are being pushed higher. For those who can’t afford to buy investment properties though, at these prices, does it even make sense to invest in Canadian real estate? With me to discuss this is John Pasalis, President of Realosophy. Saldanha: Some people say that prices in Canada will never fall. And even if they do, they’ll quickly recover. Does this make sense at all?”
“Pasalis: I mean, I think, it can, and it cannot make sense. I mean, it really depends on what’s happening. In the context of some of the bigger cities like Toronto, is that we did have a rapid acceleration in 2017, prices ended up falling and have quickly recovered. You know, we hit this soft landing. But the question is, if there is a decline tomorrow, what drives it and is it going to be a soft landing again? And of course, that we don’t know. I mean, two years ago, it was really a suburban detached home speculative bubble that we saw. And if we see something similar, but in downtown Toronto condos, we might be a little bit harder hit.”
“Saldanha: Speaking of preconstruction condos, earlier, you could get these at a discount, but now the future value is being baked in and preconstruction condos are much more expensive. At these prices, does it even make sense for buyers to consider them?”
“Pasalis: The premium that preconstruction condo investors are paying today is significantly higher than it has been in the past and also anywhere from 30% to 40%. And certainly, it kind of does not really make much sense because you’re basically paying a significant premium over resale. And again, the rationale with a lot of these investors is that, you know, they’re just going to park their money, prices will keep going up, they don’t have to worry about stress test, they don’t have to worry about tenants, they don’t have to worry about all of that stuff. They just put down the $100,000 deposit and they’ll double their money in five years. And that’s really what’s driving preconstruction sales. And of course, the risk is, what if resale prices don’t catch up to the prices that investors are paying? And then, the one risk, of course, is that all these investors actually are going to close on their units when resale prices end up being a lot lower than what they actually pay for their units.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The listing agent says that Vancouver Specials like this home are sought-after because ‘you can do anything you want with them.’ Listing agent Ian Watt received five offers, all conditional. The house sold five days after listing, but because it was an estate sale and had to clear probate, the deal didn’t close until much later. The buyers are a young family.”
“‘Local money is on fire right now,’ Mr. Watt says. ‘Definitely the under $1.2-million market is really busy. People want to buy because they’ve noticed that we’ve hit the bottom. Buyers know they’ve already dropped 10 per cent and they won’t go down anymore.'”
From Vice Magazine on the UK. “An estate agent walks up to the window of a luxury apartment, looking down over east London‘s Hoxton Street Market. The flat is available for £2.2 million. The owner describes how he came to set the place up. ‘When I first got here, I drove away,’ he says. ‘It was a shit-hole, but it was an affordable shithole.’ A former City trader shows us round a large warehouse that used to be a studio for artists. Some of their work has been kept on the walls to add character to what is now a collection of properties. ‘This is now just an investment,’ he says.”
From ENCA in South Africa. “Gauteng’s housing market is in the doldrums. Home owners looking to sell their properties in the country’s economic heartland are being forced to slash their prices. ‘It’s a cross-section of the market. Whether they paid R1-million or R10-million three or four years ago, we are selling at between 20% and 30% less,’ says Denes Zaslansky, Firtz Realty.”
The New Zealand Herald. “Fifteen suburbs have tumbled out of Auckland’s ‘magic million-dollar club’ after a year of sliding house prices in the country’s biggest city. Homes in inner city Ellerslie now typically sold for $60,000 less than a year ago after the suburb’s median sales price fell from $1.015m to $955,000, according to the data. Browns Bay homes in the North Shore were now also going for $60,000 less after its sales price fell to $995,000.”
“James Wilson, from Valocity, said the falls were because of more first-home buyers buying and fewer established homeowners – also known as movers – looking to sell and buy better properties. ‘People wanting to sell and upgrade to larger homes are now often finding mainly first-home buyers in the market, meaning they may have to soften their sale price a wee bit to meet that demand,’ he said. ‘By no means are all homes crashing in value. This data is just showing what kinds of stock is selling.'”
From Smart Property in Australia. “The number of residential properties advertised for sale this spring has been lower than last year across every capital city despite stronger selling conditions, according to CoreLogic. The lower numbers in Sydney and Melbourne are surprising. CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless attributed this to overall lower consumer confidence in the economy and future household finances.”
“‘It was only five months ago that housing values were still broadly falling. Preparing a property for sale involves a number of processes that take some time, including making the decision to sell, finding an agent, preparing the home for sale and commencing a marketing campaign,’ Mr Lawless said.”
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “The Reserve Bank is under renewed pressure over its interest rate settings after the biggest surge in Australian dwelling values in 16 years, while retailers struggle to entice shoppers through their doors amid more signs the jobs market is slipping. The bank has defended its three rate cuts since June, arguing it wants to drive down the unemployment rate to at least 4.5 per cent in a bid to put upward pressure on wages growth.”
“But ANZ’s closely watched measure of job advertisements, released on Monday, showed a 1.7 per cent drop in November to be 12.6 per cent down over the past year. Ads are now down to where they were at the end of 2016 and point to a modest lift in unemployment. Separate figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics also point to general softness in the economy.”
“Dwelling approvals across the country dropped by 8.1 per cent in October, with house approvals alone down by 7 per cent. Private sector house approvals in Sydney recorded their worst monthly performance since late 2013 while in Melbourne they dropped to a five year low. The bureau also reported manufacturing sales dropped by 0.3 per cent in the September quarter while wholesale trade levels fell by 0.5 per cent. The retail sector reported its worst quarterly performance since 2006.”
“There is clear evidence of interest rates aiding the property market, with CoreLogic’s house values index showing a 1.7 per cent lift in dwelling values through November. It was the largest national increase since 2003. MP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said the strong lift in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets would pose a problem for the Reserve Bank as it considered future rate cuts and unconventional monetary policies.”
“‘It may have to return to tighter regulatory controls again if housing credit growth starts to get out of hand again,’ Oliver said.”
From Bloomberg on Singapore. “Singapore’s developers have expressed alarm over the high supply of private apartments amid slowing demand, with the glut threatening to suppress property prices. President of the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore, Chia Ngiang Hong, said home builders are concerned about the fat pipeline and subdued demand.”
From Bloomberg on India. “Brookfield Asset Management Inc., the Canadian money manager, is holding more cash and sees distressed debt as ‘highly attractive’ as it girds for the next recession, said Chief Executive Officer Bruce Flatt. The firm is looking to make more investments in places like India, which is facing financial stress much like the U.S. in 2008-2009.”
“‘India, for example, has a financial crisis situation going on which is similar to what happened in the United States in 2009, probably not quite as bad, but the banks are not in great shape and non-bank financials are in trouble,’ he said. ‘And what that means is that entrepreneurs don’t have access to capital and therefore they’re selling assets.'”
The Bay Area Newsgroup in California. “The empty new home at 1500 Cowper St. in Old Palo Alto fills all the right boxes — and then some. But listed at $27.8 million, how long will it take to sell? Bay Area luxury home sales are turning sluggish. Purchases in the top five percent of the market — above roughly $2.8 million in Santa Clara County and $3.6 million in San Mateo County — have slowed this year in the core Silicon Valley counties, according to an analysis by Realtor.com.”
“‘It’s a natural re-balancing of the market,’ said Realtor.com senior economist George Ratiu. ‘Luxury home buyers in the Bay Area seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach.'”
“The broad Bay Area housing market has leveled off after nearly eight years of rising prices across the nine-county region. The median sale price for a home in the nine-county region was $810,000 in September, down 4.7 percent from the previous year, according to CoreLogic and DQNews.”
Comments are closed.
‘The buyers are a young family’
These REIC devils will sell their grandmothers for one more months commission.
‘Local money is on fire right now…Definitely the under $1.2-million market is really busy. People want to buy because they’ve noticed that we’ve hit the bottom. Buyers know they’ve already dropped 10 per cent and they won’t go down anymore’
Jeebus, detached shacks in Vancouver fell more than 10% in the one month after the parabolic blow out in the spring of 2016. It took a while but condos have followed.
Buyers know they’ve already dropped 10 per cent and they won’t go down anymore
Can you say that with a straight face?
‘The empty new home at 1500 Cowper St. in Old Palo Alto’
Spec housing, check!
‘It’s a natural re-balancing of the market…Luxury home buyers in the Bay Area seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach’
Everybody is behaving like speculators. Big surprise.
“The median sale price for a home in the nine-county region was $810,000 in September, down 4.7 percent from the previous year”
And down it goes. Recently Had a realtor tell me if i wanted to make an offer on his clients shack i would have to get it in asap because the seller will remove and list in spring when prices go up. I think ill hold off and speculate a bit longer like all the other cash briefcase holding IPO millionaires
“…leveling off…down 4.7 percent…”
One of those things is not like the other.
Note that 4.7% off a $1 million BayArea shack is $47,000…not pocket change for most American households. Home equity wealth effects are great until they turn negative.
Datum only, but friends’ San Jose sale price was 16% off the peak. Just closed Black Friday. Sidenote: Probably the worst Black Friday deal ever, buyer just doesn’t know it yet.
It is beyond pathetic that the buying and selling of homes has sunk to this level of casino gambling.
I would have told said realtor to go intercourse themself.
“I would have told said realtor to go intercourse themself.“
Lol. Yeah i tend to say that to them in other ways such as a 50% off offer
Much more tactful.
It is sad but governments have trained people to catch the falling knives. it does make home prices far more sticky on the way down. This is far different than normal human behavior where study after study has shown that people want to avoid a loss far more than they want a gain. Of course, as we discuss regularly on this blog, what limitations does a government have when it can produce “money” out of thin air. Precisely, why the founding fathers wanted gold backing any currency issued. However, the constitution has and is being ignored and the ability of people to put roofs over their heads have been reduced.
1) The FIRE sector of the eCONomy is now disproportionately large vis a vis the actual economy.
2) This is true for gov’t. as well. See Rahn Curve and Laffer Curve. This includes The Administrative/Deep State (think coup d’etat).
3) The crony capitalism between (1) and (2) is destroying free markets.
4) The Federal Reserve Bank (aka The Fed) private banking cartel is also killing free markets and the economy due to graft, corruption, central planning, and malfeasance.
We used to have Congress looking out for us.
We used to have checks and balances along with regulation and enforcement. The SEC is a joke. Monopolies and cartels are rampant. Remember the Sherman Antitrust Act? Neither do I.
We used to have only 3 branches of gov’t., but now 5, including Admin./Deep State + The Fed, which are unelected and unaccountable.
It’s no wonder the system is a mess.
A day of reckoning is coming.
Got gold?
“…FIRE sector of the eCONomy is now disproportionately large vis a vis the actual economy…”
Perhaps it should now be called FIRE+S = FIRES to account for the incredible amount of outstanding student loans [1].
Student loans in present form didn’t even exist in 1982 when the FIRE economy term was first used [2].
“…A day of reckoning is coming…”
And not a day too soon, IMO.
[1]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=14T9
[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy
I thought FIRE was Financial Independence Retire Early.
RPE… Sad but 100% true, IMHO. 🙁
A day of reckoning is coming.
Got gold?
If you do keep it secret and hidden. The Deep State will want to take it off your hands.
“…the ability of people to put roofs over their heads have been reduced.”
And hence the explosion in homelessness. For every street person you see, there’s another 1 or 2 living in their car, many who are the working poor. The FED’s easy money scam has led to an oligarch orgy of speculation in all assets, but they piled deep and wide into real estate. This completely removed all affordable rentals from the marketplace, and moved them up into a price point that is no longer affordable for the low-wage earners, where the cheapest apartment is more than an entire month’s wages. Heckuva job, Obama/Bernanke/Yellen, heckuva job.
“…completely removed all affordable rentals from the marketplace, and moved them up into a price point that is no longer affordable…”
Exactly correct.
And what is extra scary is other organizations, (most notoriously state and local government) benefit from this scam by collecting more in taxes (ie. property) which fuels outrageous public sector salaries and pension benefits.
And don’t forget our friends in the insurance industry who can charge increased premium (ie. fire) because inflated R/E now is “worth” more.
Scams on top of scams on top of scams.
Is it possible for all of this to unwind in an orderly manner or is the ‘big one’ meltdown staring us in the face?
“And what is extra scary is other organizations, (most notoriously state and local government) benefit from this scam by collecting more in taxes (ie. property) which fuels outrageous public sector salaries and pension benefits.“
+1000
Exactly why all the “beneficiaries” of this bubble run up turn their heads and avoid acknowledging this isn’t normal.
Public pensions were counting on 8% returns, and they’re lucky to see 2% these days. So yes, they desperately need those inflated property tax receipts!
They are keeping it going, because the melt-down will be worse than anyone feared.
Is it possible for all of this to unwind in an orderly manner or is the ‘big one’ meltdown staring us in the face?
My guess is that it’s door #2 even if that takes a while more. I think 2008 was our last chance to unwind in an orderly manner and it was rejected as too painful for People Who Matter.
“…For every street person you see, there’s another 1 or 2 living in their car”
Recently, I made an early-morning trip to a nearby Lowe’s (in Las Vegas). I got there about 6:30. I was amazed at the number of vehicles in their parking lot that appeared to be serving as residences. Everything from small cars up to a big “class A” motor home. Multiple Vans and truck campers were in the mix.
Perhaps the people in the RVs were just staying overnight, but I doubt it. This is in the middle of the city, not near a highway or freeway. And not in a tourist area.
Which Lowes?
New law on January 1:
reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas/las-vegas-passes-controversial-homeless-camping-ban-1887290/
Post on Nextdoor says those without vehicles are already starting to migrate outside the city limits to the neighborhood north of us in Paradise.
And the war on poverty continues. It’s a sick, sick country full of fawked up people – in both directions.
And the war on poverty continues.
Ha, yeah. When we got here in 2006, and for the next couple of years, you could get hit up three times a day – gas stations, parking lots – people begging everywhere. Then it stopped. I noticed it ramping up again about a year ago.
One time I got a little lost in the downtown area and saw an encampment of at least 100 people (a bad guess, there might have been more, but I was shocked seeing it.) Those are the people that will be on the move.
I noticed this phenomena when watching a recent episode of Jay Lenos Garage online, featuring an old carbon fiber bugatti. As Jay drove down one busy thoroughfare in socal you could see vehicles ranging from trucks to full sized RVs cheek to jowl along this major road. They aint going nowhere.
Here in da islands, they are projecting the number of tourists to visit this year at 10 million for the first time. For reference, the population comes in at about 1.4 million. When I went to buy some fishing floats the other day I noticed at all the stores they’re now locked up – a $2 item! – along with all the other gear.
Any house in reasonable shape that comes in around 750K or less gets snapped up pretty quick. Above 1M there are a ton of places for sale and more coming onto market every day. Winter is the hot season for RE as people fly out here for vacation to escape the snow and decide they gotta have a piece of da rock.
I was amazed at the number of vehicles in their parking lot that appeared to be serving as residences.
WalMart too. The two local ones in my little burg have plenty of campers every night.
“three times a day”
Try 20+ if you’re driving and working in central Denver.
Wow.
So every time you hit a light.
When I was thinking of changing jobs two years ago I interviewed with a couple of firms located in downtown Denver. No one hit me up for cash, but I suppose that I can look unfriendly when I try.
Nevertheless I didn’t like what I saw. Lots of dirty looking bums everywhere. And a lot of people who work in “tech” downtown resembled the bums on the street. I walked out of the second interview and resolved to never again interview for a job downtown.
When I used to attend the local comic con at the convention center, at first I parked in an open parking lot (not free) and walked a few blocks to the convention center. Later I stopped doing that and paid more to park in the convention center’s parking garage, just to avoid walking the streets. Of course the local comic con became so insufferably woke that I stopped going altogether.
Lots of dirty looking bums everywhere. And a lot of people who work in “tech” downtown resembled the bums on the street.
I was surprised to read the transcript of the 60 minutes segment that aired on homelessness a couple of days ago and there was a homeless database coordinator that was profiled. Not the typical image you imagine when you think of homelessness.
“Jeff Gold was unable to pay the rent on his apartment and was evicted nearly six years ago. When we met him in August, he’d just started a new job as a database coordinator. He was 58 years old and a graduate of the University of Illinois. This is where Jeff was sleeping — beside a church, on a sheet of cardboard. Each morning, he gathered his few possessions, stuffed them in a plastic bag, and stored them in a friend’s truck. Then he headed for work at the Environmental Protection Agency.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homeless-in-america-the-issues-forcing-people-in-seattle-onto-the-street-60-minutes-2019-12-01/
Oh dear….
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3040265/third-bond-default-chinese-electronics-firm-within-month
Investment decisions were made by politically well connected globalists based on the premise globalism would continue. Thus, it provided a partial justification for housing prices in places such as Australia and Brazil, However when China moved from 14% growth to 6% growth many of the assumptions about the needs for raw material inputs have proven wrong. Without the US to act like uncle sucker it hard to justify a belief that wages in the developing world will reach levels to afford the housing prices which the well connected globalist bankers have used as collateral:
https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/most-expensive-cities
Wait, are you implying a person in the third world earning $10,000 a year can’t afford a $500,000 apartment?
Policing the banks – what a joke that has become, with captured and co-opted regulators, enforcers, and policymakers all in bed with the gold collar criminals they should be locking up.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/01/banks-behaving-badly-why-australia-lags-in-policing-its-financial-sector
The only joke is that anybody believed the banks would ever be called on the carpet in the first place. Lloyd Blandfein was laughing and telling everybody he was “doing God’s work” when he should have been in handcuffs.
India, for example, has a financial crisis situation going on…
I guess we can count them out of driving the world economy with the next big credit expansion miracle.
Canton, MA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Boston Housing Market Tanks On Ballooning Mortgage Loan Losses
https://www.movoto.com/canton-ma/market-trends/
A noted economist stated, “A housing ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”
“The Globe and Mail in Canada.”
“The buyers are a young family.”
3035 Charles St., Vancouver
Previous selling prices:
$1,265,000 (2017);
$147,600 (1999);
$149,000 (1982)
In 5-yrs this young family will be well-off, buoyed by equity! 🙂
Of all the central bankers’ crimes and swindles, none are worse than making housing so unaffordable for young families just starting out.
Phoenix, AZ Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY On Surging Mortgage Loan Losses Across US
https://www.zillow.com/phoenix-az-85012/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
As a noted economist stated, “Why buy a house when you can rent one for half the monthly cost. Buy it later after prices crater for 70% less
Hedge fund billionaire buys Florida mansion for $111 million
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/billionaire-steven-schonfeld-buys-florida-mansion-for-111-million.html
Hedge Fund Founder Builds Quant Paradise
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-03/homebody-in-a-hoodie-hedge-fund-founder-builds-quant-paradise
The owner describes how he came to set the place up. ‘When I first got here, I drove away,’ he says. ‘It was a shit-hole, but it was an affordable shithole.’
Yellen Bux in action.
Plunging currency valuations and liquidity crises in Lebanon and Syria as Lebanon’s social unrest, aimed against corrupt elites, hits the banking system. I bet a lot of Syrians and Lebanese who put their misplaced faith in fiat currency wish they would’ve bought gold instead. A preview of coming attractions as the public loses confidence in fiat currencies debased into worthlessness by central bankers.
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/syrian-pound-drops-at-unprecedented-rate-is-lebanons-financial-crisis-to-blame-1.68137781
Renters never find themselves co-habitating unhappily under the same roof as mortgage slaves.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7750157/Secretary-stuck-living-unhappily-ex-told-hand-HALF-1-5million-home-judge.html
Buh-bye. Kamala Harris pulls the plug on her floundering campaign. She never recovered from being destroyed by Tulsi Gabbard in the primaries, and her support base of Gimme Dats, while all about the redistribution of the wealth she promised, weren’t about to part with any of their own to fund her campaign, which was plagued by infighting and rife with incompetence (these are progressives, after all). Will this clear the way for a Warren-Harris ticket, aka The Squaw-Skank Redemption?
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-drops-out-out-of-presidential-race-074902
“[Harris] put more than 1,500 marijuana users in prison, then laughed when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana.” Goodbye and good riddance, hypocrite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cfp_IIdVnXs
https://dailycaller.com/2019/12/03/democrats-2020-candidates-white-males/
LOL
while a smart but wildly inexperienced, centrist white mayor of teeny tiny city is surging,
They forgot to mention that he’s a card carrying member of the velvet mafia. And he’s only a “centrist” thanks to the Overton window.
I’m not sure which is more hilarious: how their obsession with skin color completely negates this — or, at a higher level, how the pre-primary jockeying has completely laid bare which political party is really the home for rich, white Americans now.
“I’ve taken stock and looked at this from every angle, and over the last few days have come to one of the hardest decisions of my life. My campaign for president simply doesn’t have the financial resources we need to continue. I’m not a billionaire. I can’t fund my own campaign. And as the campaign has gone on, it’s become harder and harder to raise the money we need to compete.”
Yeah, it’s hard to raise money all right when your constituency consists of deadbeats and freeloaders.
In reporting Kamala Harris’ throwing in the towel (and Trump’s gleeful kick in the rear as she exited), the fake news purveyors at CNN naturally failed to mention the pivotal moment in Kamala’s downfall: Tulsi Gabbard torching her during the debates. Both that incident, and Tulsi herself, have been consigned to the memory hole by the globalist news network.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fITxSGUzqok
I’m surprised that Senator Running Deer still has so much support. Then again, when you look at the other choices it isn’t that surprising.
I guess our first female president could be a pale, blond, blue eyed “person of color”. But why not? I mean if tampons can be for men too, why can’t she be a “person of color”?
Honk, honk!
Will this clear the way for a Warren-Harris ticket, aka The Squaw-Skank Redemption?
Har-de-har. But seriously, I can’t imagine anybody wanting Harris for VP either. I’m sure she has no problem working for TPTB though, so I suppose anything is possible.
What about a Bloomberg/Harris ticket?
Sounds like the worst of all worlds to me. There isn’t a single D I like because they are all anti gun. But if I had to rank them I’d put Gabbard and Warren near the top and those two near the bottom.
Ever since the last SNL, I can’t stop thinking about Gabbard as Cruella De Vil:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8EQFhj8ca4
Airbnb crackdown in Boston:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/in-boston-airbnb-tasked-with-removing-thousands-of-illegal-listings.html
Long before the FBI and MSM conspired to take down Donald Trump, they had aligned to railroad an innocent man named Richard Jewel. Kudos to Clint Eastwood for bringing the story to the silver screen.
https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/richard-jewell-review/
He also received some compensation for the MSM’s attempt to rape him with a microphone. Not nearly enough, IMHO, as some of the scum like CNN should’ve been eviscerated.
flickers of Red State awareness can’t be contained
Good for you Clint.
This railroad job reminded me of the young sailor in the Iowa’s gun turret who was blamed when the powder bags ignited before the breech was closed and locked.
NCIS (Naval Criminal Investigative Service) has a long, inglorious history of shoddy investigations and pre-determining guilt before trying to make the evidence fit their narrative. Absolutely vile people, according to every Navy veteran I know. I remember when the USS New Jersey blew up because the sailors were ramming unstable 50-year-old bags of gunpowder into a 16-in gun, and the NCIS concocted a ludicrous claim that unrequited gay love between two shipmates had caused one to initiate the explosion. The families and friends of the two smeared sailors eventually forced the NCIS to admit its case was a crock, but they have run roughshod over countless navy personnel with their gestapo-like tactics and sham investigations.
The Iowa investigation was done by the Navy. People get “railroded” all the time without any conspiracy. It seems to be a aflaw in human nature to “pin it on someone.” The term scapegoat comes from the ancient religious tradition of casting all the village’s problems/evil spirits on a sacrificial goat. Most people like certainty. CNN/FOX feed them what they want
Kaaawa, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 23% YOY Hawaii Housing Market Slips Into The Abyss
https://www.movoto.com/kaaawa-hi/market-trends/
As one noted economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”
Australia’s economy sputters despite RBA stimulus. Oh dear. What happens when the financial crack cocaine mainlined into addicted financial sectors by central banks no longer has any effect?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-economy-sputters-despite-stimulus-2019-12-03?mod=mw_latestnews
Oh dear. Bond defaults in China since November are setting new records. Looks to me like despite the rosy official data, the pace of the unraveling is quickening. Will China be the first major country where the central bankers lose control?
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3040476/chinas-tsunami-bond-defaults-topped-us17-billion-november
Stock markets
Markets in tailspin amid fears US-China trade deal is in peril
Asian markets plunge after Trump comments about trade deal delay made worse by possible Xinjiang sanctions
Martin Farrer
Wed 4 Dec 2019 00.32 EST
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/04/markets-in-tailspin-amid-fears-us-china-trade-deal-is-in-peril
Trader Talk
How the market sell-off could get much worse: ‘Better put on your helmet’
Published Tue, Dec 3 2019 2:13 PM EST
Updated Tue, Dec 3 2019 3:49 PM EST
Bob Pisani
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/how-the-market-sell-off-could-get-worse-better-put-on-your-helmet.html
Plunge protection fail
Credit Markets
Fed Adds $95.56 Billion in Short-Term Liquidity to Markets
Central bank is using temporary operations to tamp down any possible wild moves
The repo market shook the financial world in September when an unexpected rate spike choked short-term lending, spurring the Federal Reserve to intervene. WSJ explains how this critical, but murky part of the financial system works, and why some banks say the crunch could have been prevented. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds for The Wall Street Journal
By Michael S. Derby
Updated Dec. 3, 2019 6:37 pm ET
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added $95.56 billion in temporary liquidity to financial markets Tuesday.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-adds-99-557-billion-in-short-term-liquidity-to-markets-11575387820
‘How the Grinch stole Christmas’
Then the last thing he took
Was the log for their fire.
Then he went up the chimney himself, the old liar.
On their walls he left nothing but hooks, and some wire.
And the one speck of food
The he left in the house
Was a crumb that was even too small for a mouse.
Then
He did the same thing
To the other Whos’ houses
Leaving crumbs
Much too small
For the other Whos’ mouses!
– Great allegory for the Fed!
Lower-than-anticipated rates are on the way.
Market will give Fed a ‘punch to the mouth’ in 2020, a top market analyst says
Published Tue, Dec 3 2019 8:38 AM EST
Michael Affigne
The market has yet to punch Fed in the mouth, top expert Jim Bianco says
The Federal Reserve could be in store for some pain.
That’s according to Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, who says the recent market narrative reminds him of the former boxer Mike Tyson’s quote that “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Bianco says that while markets have been hitting new all-time highs and the Fed seems poised to hold off on continuing to cut interest rates, it hasn’t been tested with a “punch to the mouth” that could drastically alter its “plan.”
“We’ll have to see if this will hold up on a 5% to 7% correction. I kind of have my doubts,” Bianco said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday, a day that saw the markets close lower. “The markets [are] looking for one cut maybe next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it winds up being two or three once all is said and done.”
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/market-will-give-fed-a-punch-to-the-mouth-in-2020-jim-bianco-says.html
Sometimes witch hunts identify witches.
CRIME
Published 11 hours ago
Rep. Duncan Hunter, in reversal, pleads guilty in campaign funds case
By Andrew O’Reilly |
Fox News
…
Definitionally it’s not a witch hunt if you believe witches actually exist. Felons and felonies….well, there seem to be plenty of them around
The Minister of Realtor Propaganda continues to beat the “shortage” drum:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/04/harsh-housing-forecast-for-2020-especially-in-these-big-cities.html
The situation will only be exacerbated by the Baby Boom generation, which, according to the forecast, will have little incentive to sell, given weaker home prices.
“Not gonna give it away! You’re funding my retirement, damn it!”
Millennials will dominate the housing market, accounting for 50% of all mortgages by spring, according to the forecast. Just short of 5 million millennials will turn 30, which is when many people buy their first home, and the oldest will turn 39, generally when family dynamics kick in, and people move to larger homes in the suburbs.
Erm:
https://www.mnn.com/your-home/remodeling-design/blogs/housing-market-millennials-arent-buying-what-boomers-are-selling
The student, Diana Olick, has surpassed The Master, Baghdad Bob.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sFAtDw44yA
Housing economics are an interesting thing. Prices will be driven lower next year by a worsening shortage.
I could see this happening somewhat. But then again, there will be some smart boomers that realize that they better get out sooner rather than later if they want to actually cash in on that equity. The smart money will capitalize on getting out of the market and into a nice rental in an urban area near good medical before housing prices collapse, not after.
https://alphabetastock.com/2019/12/03/is-senior-housing-properties-trust-heading-toward-bankruptcy/
These senior housing projects are dropping nearly as fast as people who have dirt on the Clintons.
3260 Ishi-Pishi Road
3260 Ishi-Pishi Road, Orleans
$159,500
*Opportunity knocks, huge price reduction with a highly motivated seller!* Stunning setting for this cozy country cabin in sunny and scenic Orleans. Private gated 2.5 acres with no visible neighbors, and park like grounds with an open meadow and fenced garden areas with good exposure. Relax on your front porch with the soothing sounds of the heavy flowing creek and enjoy views of the near-by mountains! Right off Hwy 96 on paved Ishi-Pishi Rd only minutes to the Klamath River and the Orleans post office and market. Close proximity to Six Rivers National Forest and the Marble Mountains Wilderness for world class fishing, hiking, and kayaking. A true paradise for the lover of the outdoors! Perfect for an urban escape, rural homestead or mountain AirBnB vacation rental. Owner may carry!
https://lostcoastoutpost.com/realestate/
Knock knock.
Who’s there?
Opportunity.
Opportunity to catch a falling knife? No thanks. I’ll wait for the Great Reset and buy that shack for a song. Beat it, REIC shill.
There’s a used car salesman, a lawyer and a real estate agent. You have a gun with only two bullets. What do you do?
Shoot the real estate agent twice to make sure.
Realtors are liars
Right on cue, here come the “light at the end of the tunnel” REIC shills claiming housing has bottomed out and it’s rainbows and unicorns ahead. Hate to break it to you dissemblers, but the real carnage still lies ahead with the bursting of the central bankers’ Everything Bubble.
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/07/article/australias-housing-market-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/?_=8779552
After a couple days off, the PPT is propping the markets back up. Trade deal news is certainly not driving this run up
Fremont, CA Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Bay Area Staggers Under Weight Of Mortgage Defaults And Spiraling Layoffs
https://www.zillow.com/fremont-ca-94539/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
As one noted economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”