There Are Major Holes In All The Buildings, Where’s The Demand?

1. ‘On the market for a New York City apartment and wondering why rents are the highest in years? Blame the luxury condo glut. New York City is littered with unsold luxury apartments which has become an expensive problem for developers. In order to make their money back, they’re converting the units into rentals’

   Prices and rents in NYC are sinking like a turd in a well, and have been for years. But we have to put up with this horse-hockey from NPR. The main-stream media are living in la-la land anymore. They have their own reality.

   1. “New York City is littered with unsold luxury apartments which has become an expensive problem for developers“

      – Majority of product is lux, but market is mid/lower tier. How did these genius developers miss this major disconnect? Cheap credit and ultra-low rates (for far too long) from the Fed have massively distorted markets. Called “malinvestment.” Same as last time only worse. Every major MSA in the nation has similar issue. Same root cause.

      – Expensive problem for developers and everyone else tied to this market. Not me, fortunately.

      1. It’s all the same “product”. There is no distinction other than some are price at a more grossly inflated level than others.

      2. Similarly, in the Phoenix area much of the commercial office space from the pre-GFC bubble *never* sold. Instead, in this new bubble they have built new (still-)vacant commercial office space next to the old (still-)vacant commercial office space.

         Courtesy of the Federal Reserve, and REITs determined not to recognize a loss until there is such a crash that they can claim it was ‘unforeseeable’.

2. CRE prices in NYC doubled from 2014 to 2016. But there’s no bubble:

   http://www.rstreet.org/2017/07/24/is-the-real-estate-double-bubble-back/

3. ‘Student housing – especially luxury student housing – is a big business, said Margaret Kaplan, president of…a Twin Cities-based housing advocacy organization. ‘Students, in a lot of ways, are a bit of a captive market, because they want to be near their universities. So folks are willing to really, in some ways pay more than they can afford’

   Now that’s some advocacy right there!

   1. – In a normal world there’s no lux student housing. Oxymoronic (or just moronic). But in our bizzaro world, everything is upside-down. The Fed + Gov’t. student loan guarantees (read taxpayer) enabled this mess.

      – With advocates like these, who needs enemies?

4. Bend, OR Housing Prices Crater 25% YOY As Mortgage Defaults And Foreclosures Skyrocket

   https://www.movoto.com/bend-or/market-trends/

   As one noted economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”

5. ‘could be yours for the recently reduced price of $1.015 million. In that bedroom, a built-in closet (with shoe storage!) includes a ladder so items can be stored all the way to the top of the wall. The HOA fee is $995 a month’

   ‘Even though the price of this loft has been reduced from $1.025 million in October to $1.015 million this November, Belltown homes have been selling for 98.2 percent sale-to-list ratio in the last 30 days. And as long as we’re looking at history, the condo sold for $570,000 in 2011’

   Out here in the fields, 570k pesos is a bunch of money. This box of air was over-priced in 2011 – and over 1M is insanity. But no bubble here.

   1. Quick price history shows it was for rent for $3600 per month in 2017. Or you could own it for $5600 a month. What a deal. Either way you probably get the ladder.

6. ‘the estimated $50 million-valued project will be 17 stories tall with 320 units. The apartment projects completion by August 2020, just in time for move-in week. Due to the oversupply of housing, there remains a high rate of vacancy in local apartments, in which landlords have responded to by calling for decreased taxes’

   I’ll point out again: not one market or sector pulled back in time. Almost all are still starting projects, including New York which is swimming in foreclosures now. How could the entire REIC get things so wrong?

   That’s how mania’s go.

   ‘Colorado Springs has 2,700 apartment units under construction with another 2,800 units planned…Absorption in apartments with 50 or more units totaled 600 units the past year with 370 during the past quarter. The overall vacancy rate, including properties in lease-up, increased to 9.7% due to new construction. This is a 10-year high’

   1. The bright side of this is that electricians that live in Colorado Springs who work in construction can work down there instead of driving to Denver every day.

      Driving over Monument Hill every day in winter is a dice roll…

7. “…the tagline for FloCo Fusion, an apartment that offers tanning beds, party buses and Apple TVs in each apartment: ‘Quit dreaming about how the other half lives. At FloCo, you are the other half….’”

   Message to FloCo college “students”:

   Sounds like the perfect pad for you kids whose parents have an extra $500K lying around to bribe your way into admissions.

   So college is just one giant party?

   Try getting a job when you graduate. (Assuming you do graduate)

   1. And Elizabeth Warren wants to take MY tax money to pay for this…

8. “Manhattan’s three-year downturn in retail real estate may have claimed its biggest victim yet. A group of international lenders filed on Monday to foreclose on the company controlling 20 Times Square, a 42-story hotel and retail tower once valued at $2.4 billion. The group said that 90% of the property’s retail space has been sitting vacant, according to the filing.

   Oh dear. That’s a rather large domino to topple over. Sure hope it doesn’t take any other dominoes with it.

   I’m guessing its safe to say the previous Yellen Bux valuation of $2.4 billion has plummeted, meaning the underlying collateral on all those loans is in a state of serious decay. No wonder the Fed is frantically pumping $100 billion a day into the repo market.

9. ‘Students, in a lot of ways, are a bit of a captive market, because they want to be near their universities. So folks are willing to really, in some ways pay more than they can afford,’

   Speaking from personal experience, it’s a lot cheaper to have your college student children live at home and attend a commuter school across town than to have them live in “luxury student housing” near campus.

   1. “Speaking from personal experience, it’s a lot cheaper to have your college student children live at home and attend a commuter school across town than to have them live in “luxury student housing” near campus.”

      Did the girl(s) put you through the “Look who’s coming to dinner” experience? 🙂

10. “On their websites, many of these apartments intersperse photos of young, vibrant, smiling models with photos of their apartments and amenities. They are selling not just an apartment, but a dreamy lifestyle.”

    Close, but not quite. Here: They are selling dreamy lifestyles dressed up as apartments. There, more better.

    Our culture in infected with mass despair and unhappiness among a population who have never had it so good. This is by design. People who are happy do not spend big bucks in search of happiness, people who are unhappy do. Add mass stupidity to this mass unhappiness and – presto! – you have before you a population of people who can easily be exploited.

    And this is where I come in to the picture.

    1. “…People who are happy do not spend big bucks in search of happiness, people who are unhappy do…”

       Exactly, profoundly correct.

       People spending money they don’t have to buy things they don’t need to impress people they don’t know.

       Personal College Footnote:

       When I went to college (early 70’s) a real big deal for us dorm-mates was to scrape enough cash together to go off campus to get a sandwich. Most of us had jobs in addition to school. We had no free time. We all graduated. We all have good jobs.

       Now I read about tanning booths, doggie walks, and the incredible entitlement BS that goes on at colleges these days. What a complete crock. These “students” should be disgusted with themselves. The shucksters who sell “luxury” student housing and all the other nonsense should be even more disgusted with themselves.

       1. I went to Cal State Northridge 1998-2000 (transferred from Community College) and we had what were “nice” dorms at the time since they had just been rebuilt after the earthquake. Ours were built like apartments with 2 beds and 1 bathroom and a kitchen and living room. We even had a parking structure. Still there was no “luxury.” Formica counter tops, cheap plywood cabinets and basic furniture and appliances were featured in these units.

          I thought I was living large though compared to my buddies at other schools who had to share a room and had a communal bathroom down the hall.

          I wish I could recall exactly how much I paid but IIRC it was something around $2000 a SEMESTER and that included a meal plan that I could use next door at the Satellite Student Union and other spots on campus.

          1. Mine in 1970 was a two room suite, three beds each, connected by the shared bathroom. Meals were at the meal hall. Co-eds had their own fortress and meal hall.

11. “The shucksters who sell ‘luxury’ student housing and all the other nonsense should be even more disgusted with themselves.”

    I am trying to conjure up some self disgust about my involvement in the matter but it doesn’t seem to be happening. I don’t think it will be happening for other “shucksters” either.

    Some guiding words to live by: “If God did not want them to be sheared He would not have made them sheep.” – Calveras

    1. Lenders took the a$$-pounding on these NYC loans above.

12. More savvy Chinese money coming to Live and Die in LA?

    https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-12-10/chinese-developer-buys-land-for-mega-project-in-downtown-la

    There’s a good piece of the article devoted to the failing Oceanwide Plaza in there.

    1. Fiat money is little different from the money created in that movie. In fact it is not money it is currency. It is too bad progressives cannot see the true genius of the founding fathers. They did their best to create a system where the FSA would not ruin the system. Corrupt politicians in Rome used them to obtain power and looted the treasury for their own and the FSA’s benefit. Unfortunately we have not heard the intent of the founders outside the impeachment hearings, normally we hear the living constitution which means the judges will do whatever they want.

    2. “The sale by a group of physicians who owned the 3.3-acre parcel at Olympic and Georgia Street, formerly occupied by a HealthCare Partners facility, had been in escrow since 2015 because it was contingent on City Century securing city approval for the project. That approval has been secured.”

       It was a good thing the city is fast and efficient at approval. The quicker they build it, the quicker the buyers can buy and enjoy their sweet equity!!!

    3. https://www.latimes.com/business/real-estate/story/2019-10-25/century-citys-revamped-century-plaza-moves-ahead

       “Although the homes won’t be completed until spring 2021, sales are underway with prices starting at $2 million and ranging beyond $50 million. Including both condo tower and hotel residences, the developer has closed more than $200 million in pre-sales.”

       It’s a big club and you ain’t in it.

13. “These subleased offices are a shadow market that indicates the real supply of office space is much larger than thought. In fact, the top Class A buildings are at about 80 percent to 85 percent occupancy, meaning office vacancies are at least 10 percent to 15 percent in each building ‘There are major holes in all the buildings,’ said one real estate broker who asked not to be named. ‘Where’s the demand?’”

    Did WeWork ran out of money again? Someone call the Idiot at Softbank and ask for a few more billions!

    “Real estate sources say the space glut, and new office buildings coming to the market, are starting to spook some buildings owners who want out. In fact, word is the Phillips Point office complex might go on the market for sale next year, as might other buildings. ‘The market is getting nervous,’ one source said.”

    Remember, there is only one exit door and thousands of speculators LOL

14. Realtors are liars.

15. A priest throwing water from Mar-a-Lago on Nancy Pelosi.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpGnt0otbjo

    1. Mar-a-Lago

       Like him or not, that’s one gorgeous piece of property!

       1. “Like him or not, that’s one gorgeous piece of property!”

          +1 He has a good eye for fine grass!

          1. Yes, he does. 😉

16. is yacht stretching a sign of a top?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-04/why-cruise-lines-keep-cutting-their-ships-in-half-for-stretching?utm_source=pocket-newtab

17. San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As One Broker Quietly Admits, “Mortgage And Appraisal Fraud Is The Norm.”

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    https://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92037/home-values/

    As one noted economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”

18. ALBDan – What is the best area in ABQ? Did it ever boom? Is the crime in the south a big problem? The crime stats are off the charts. I like Boise too, but ruined by the CA refugees.

    1. The crime in Albuquerque is a big problem however it is worse in the southern parts of the city. It is definitely more widespread than ten years ago. Cities right around Albuquerque are safe and pretty nice, Corrales, Rio Rancho to the north and where I live to the South in Los Lunas are nice. Rio Rancho has Intel and Los Lunas has Facebook. Was not here when I moved here about ten years ago but I think that it saw the same potential that I saw.

19. https://therealdeal.com/la/2019/12/02/can-influencers-and-college-students-save-greenlands-metropolis/

    Rich college students will save the market! I swear!

    1. “Amid sluggish condo sales, Greenland put two of the four Metropolis towers up for sale last year. The firm sought $280 million for the Hotel Indigo, but the tower never sold and a spokesperson said it has been taken off the market. Greenland also tried to sell Metropolis III, the largest of the four towers at 685 units, at an undisclosed asking price, rumored to be $450 million. That too didn’t sell, and Greenland is projected to finish construction this month. Except instead of condos, it’s now slated to be a rental building.”

       Don’t worry, an expert REIC told me real estate always goes up. ALWAYS

       “A move to rentals could make profitability a distant goal.

       “It could have cost about $600 per square foot to build the units,” USC’s Green said. “Most apartments around there, the entire unit rents for around $2,000 a month, so that could be a pretty big loss.”

       Fake NEWS! Rich people don’t care about burning money. That’s why they are rich! See this is the WeWork business model and they are just waiting out the market or until some idiot from China buys these at higher price. I like to call this the “Greater Genius Theory”.

       1. No rich people want the tax write-off. Sarcasm for the people who for some reason cannot recognize it.

       2. “Rich people don’t care about burning money.”

          Exactly! Some ultra sophistimicated D00med realtor once let me in on this secret, i was informed that they use paper money to keep the fire in the fireplace going when its cold out and leave all doors and windows on with the AC running when its hot. They also like to buy stawks like Uber, Peleton, BeyondMeat, Slack, and would have bought WeWork if it ever evolved. Multi million $ houses with homeless people sleeping and defecating on the front porch is also a good investment for them because this adds diversity. Remember, now is the best time to buy EVERYTHING, FED PRINTS FREE MONEY, FREE FREE FREE!

20. Attorney General Barr Details Significant Problems With FBI’s Surveillance of Trump Campaign

    FBI ‘misled the FISA court, omitted critical exculpatory facts,’ and ignored unreliability of principal source

    ‘Barr noted that the evidence collected by the FBI from the beginning of the investigation was “consistently exculpatory” but despite the ongoing lack of evidence of wrongdoing by the Trump campaign, the FBI continued its investigation, along with active surveillance of four individuals within the Trump campaign, while pushing “forward for the duration of the campaign and deep into President Trump’s administration.”

    ‘The AG claimed that in the FBI’s “rush to obtain and maintain FISA surveillance of Trump campaign associates, FBI officials misled the FISA court, omitted critical exculpatory facts from their filings, and suppressed or ignored information negating the reliability of their principal source.”

    ‘Barr pointed out that rather than going to members of the Trump campaign and simply speaking with them directly, the FBI elected to instead send in confidential human sources to wiretap members of the Trump campaign—specifically campaign advisers George Papadopoulos and Carter Page—along with a “high-level Trump campaign official who was not a subject of the investigation.” And rather than finding any information that might have confirmed some of the FBI’s suspicions or provided reasons for continuing their investigation, the information the FBI got back was exculpatory:

    “Remember, they [the FBI] say, ‘okay, we’re not going to go in and talk to the campaign, we’re going to send people in and wire them up and have them talk to the individuals’. That happened. That happened in August, September, and October [2016]. And it all came back exculpatory.”

    ‘Barr noted that the information the FBI received was “not only exculpatory as to the relationship with the Russians but as to the specific facts.”

    ‘Barr noted that despite receiving exculpatory, rather than incriminating, information, the FBI “never did anything about that—they just pressed ahead” and equally importantly, the FBI never informed the [FISA] court” of this exculpatory information.’

    ‘The IG noted that the initial January 2017 interview with the primary sub-source “raised doubts about the reliability of Steele’s descriptions of information in his election reports.” The IG noted that the primary sub-source specifically told the FBI “that he/she had not seen Steele’s reports until they became public that month, and that he/she made statements indicating that Steele misstated or exaggerated the primary sub-source’s statements in multiple sections of the reporting.”

    ‘As Barr noted in his interview, “When they finally got around to talking to him he said, ‘I don’t know what Steele’s talking about. I didn’t tell him this stuff. It was mostly barroom talk and rumor. I made it clear to him that this was my own suppositions and theories.’”

    ‘Worth noting is that the FBI received this information from Steele’s singular source of information “shortly after the FBI filed the Carter Page FISA Renewal Application No. 1 and months prior to Renewal Application No. 2” but failed to inform the FISA Court of this highly material information.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/attorney-general-barr-details-problems-with-fbis-surveillance-of-trump-campaign_3171512.html

    1. Layers and layers of law breaking by our top cops with an agenda to not only turn the election, but to overturn the elected President. How is this not treason?

       1. Orange Man Bad.

          Blue checkmark Twitter thinks comments and re-tweets win elections. They don’t. And they won’t.

          Censor and ban any deviation from your own personally scripted narrative, and then wonder why Trump won in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin.

          1. https://westernrifleshooters.files.wordpress.com/2019/09/be153327bdfd0e63.png

       2. Oh, it is!

       3. +1

       4. How is the belief that global government is the answer and the promotion of not only trade but open borders not treason? I was a pretty lonesome voice on this blog ten years ago when I said the purpose of the AGW scare was to provide a tax base to create a structure for world government and the transfer of wealth from the developed countries. Now it is a commonly held view.

    2. I watched the hearings today. It was mind-boggling. Never been a fan of Lindsey Graham, but gotta give credit where credit is due: without grandstanding, he forced the DoJ IG to admit there were serious irregularities in the way the FISA warrant was obtained on that Page guy, and systemic abuses of power and authority by multiple FBI and DoJ figures. Of course the Democrats uniformly defended the corrupt status quo and were apologists for egregious abuses that call into question how the FBI and DoJ can ever be trusted to conduct an impartial, professional, legally sound counterintelligence investigation.

       1. Oh, and with the FBI acting as the NKVD for the Deep State and the DNC, and with Democrats 100% on board with egregious abuse of power and authority, and zero accountability for the partisan political hacks at the corrupt DoJ and FBI running roughshod over the falsely accused, it’ll be a cold day in hell before I ever give up my AR-15. (Once I retrieve it from the depths of the lake where I had that tragic boating accident…the first of several, I fear….)

          Watch the movie “The Chekist” if you want to see the road the collectivists are taking us down.

          1. zero accountability

             Consider this exchange between Lindsey Graham and Brett Kavanaugh regarding enemy combatants: https://youtu.be/3_gmOsnjrZw

       2. ‘Just went to a Southern Virginia Walmart. I could smell the Trump support.’

          FBI was justified in opening Trump campaign probe, but case plagued by ‘serious failures,’ inspector general finds

          Dec. 9, 2019 at 6:47 p.m. EST

          A Justice Department inspector general’s report examining the FBI investigation of President Trump’s 2016 campaign rebutted conservatives’ accusations that top FBI officials were driven by political bias to illegally spy on Trump advisers but also found broad and “serious performance failures” requiring major changes.

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/inspector-general-report-trump-russia-investigation/2019/12/09/d5940d88-184c-11ea-a659-7d69641c6ff7_story.html

          Representative Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, led the combined session with House Oversight. He repeatedly prodded Strzok over his messages with former FBI lawyer Lisa Page while trying to determine if Strzok held any bias toward Trump while he investigated alleged collusion with Russia during the 2016 election as well as Hillary Clinton’s private email server.

          “So let’s discuss a text that hits home for me,” Goodlatte said. “On August 26, 2016, you texted Ms. Page ‘Just went to a Southern Virginia Walmart. I could smell the Trump support.’ And smell is in capital letters, all capital letters. What does Trump support smell like Mr. Strzok?”

          Strzok said he was noting to Page the difference in “expression of political opinion” between different parts of the state.

          https://www.newsweek.com/peter-strzok-trump-smell-hillbillies-1020892

          1. IG Horowitz found no bias. I wonder what the threshold of evidence would have to have been for the IG report to find otherwise. If IG Horowitz ever found himself falsely implicated for serious crimes and learned the agents investigating him were spewing anti-Semitic venom among themselves, I suspect his perspective on FBI bias might shift.

             1. This was addressed in the hearings yesterday. In an exchange with John Kennedy (R-LA), it was noted that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Other than the Strzok-Page texts, FBI employees would have had to admit that they were biased. FBI employees aren’t that stupid.

             2. absence of evidence

                There is plenty of evidence that they didn’t follow the law. Jail is for both those who can’t and those who won’t follow the law.

             3. Jail is for both those who can’t and those who won’t follow the law.

                Assuming the element of intent has been satisfied. 🧠 🕸

    3. “…exculpatory…”

       Gotta look-up that one! 🙂

       1. Evidence favorable to the defendant.

          1. This exchange. Staggering.

             Cruz: “A lawyer at the FBI creates fraudulent evidence, alters an email that is in turn used as the basis for a sworn statement to the court that the court relies on. Am I stating that accurately?”

             Horowitz: “That’s correct. That’s what occurred”

             1. Yes no bias there. The email was just altered for no reason.

       2. I just learned a new word from Ken Starr: capacious. At first, I thought he meant capricious.

          1. “…capacious.”

             That’s grandma’s house!

             1. My mother’s house! Now packed up along with the detached cottage and ready to move into a storage unit. Still need to finish the garage. And then my house. Sigh.

    4. CNN and MSNBC should block out a week for retractions.

21. US economy is expected to be in a recession in the second half of 2020 – Rabobank
    NEWS | Dec 10, 15:33 GMT | By Felipe Erazo

    While the coincident and lagging indicators show that the US economy is still going strong, the leading indicators suggest that the future looks less bright, according to analysts at Rabobank.

    Key quotes

    “The un-inversion of the yield curve, strong employment growth, solid growth in consumer spending, the low unemployment rate and a possible US-China trade deal do not change our forecast that the US economy is heading for a recession next year.”

    https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-economy-is-expected-to-be-in-a-recession-in-the-second-half-of-2020-rabobank-201912101533

22. By giving five dollars a day – less than the cost of Cinnamon Dolce Latte – you can help alleviate suffering and provide opportunity to a starving Realtor so they can live to lie again.

    Please call
    1 – 800 – P R I C E R E D U C E D

    1. I always flip starving homeless realtors a quarter. Of course I heat it up with a cigarette lighter first.

       1. 😂👍

23. Realtors can use their skills to sell electric cars. Apparently, that 280 mile range Porsche Taycon Turbo only gets 201 miles. Electric cars they are the future and have been since 1828. Pretty soon people will be comparing them to Brazil and saying they are the future and always will be.

    1. Porsche Taycon Turbo only gets 201 miles.

       until you use heat or ac

24. “Bay Area residents may feel that everything is becoming more expensive, all the time. But one thing that is not more expensive this year, surprisingly, is rent. Oakland also experienced a dip in rents. Even San Jose felt the pinch.”

    Can’t wait for rent decline eeebola to reach San Diego!

25. One of the Jersey City shooters was an FB. Probably didn’t help her state of mind losing “her” condo.

    https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/jersey-city-shootout-developing-details-3-2/2239660/

    A year ago, the neighbor says Graham stopped paying her condo fees and left. Jersey City tells News 4 the mortgage was assumed by a bank in November 2018.

    1. More proof realtors Destroy lives. On a side note BREAKING NEWS: stawks surge on news that fed is keeping rates the same. This is great news and wouldnt be any different if they skipped announcement of the nothing they are doing today. So to sum it up, stawk went up on the news of no news.. did i miss a tweeter?

    2. Another fruit of homedebtorship.

    3. “Probably didn’t help her state of mind losing “her” condo.”

       I fly a fair amount. Ain’t gonna lie, I have wondered about the state of mind of pilots should they be in a similar situation, a la that suicidal Lufthansa pilot years ago.

26. The Woke Media: Apologists for the State

    William L. Anderson
    12/09/2019

    When the New York Times calls for curtailing free speech or when its reporters actively work to promote a corrupt prosecutor in order to frame innocent people for rape, as the NYT did in the infamous Duke Lacrosse Case, when the press wrongly accused the high school boys from Covington Catholic School of harassing a Native American, which led to active death threats against the students, or when media outlets recklessly repeat false statements by government officials, as was done in the Jewell case, such transgressions are open attacks on a free society. When these things happen, a media outlet then becomes an advocate for oppressive government, which seems to openly conflict with the media’s self-declared label of “government watchdog.” As I wrote a decade ago:

    https://mises.org/wire/woke-media-apologists-state

27. Are you ready for a decade of abysmal returns on financial assets?

    1. The Financial Times
       Equities
       Investors grit their teeth for a ‘low return decade’
       Loose monetary policy has benefited today’s asset owners at the expense of tomorrow’s
       Robin Wigglesworth yesterday

       Wall Street’s forecasts for the coming year make for fairly glum reading. But the real horror-show lies in the smattering of long-term forecasts, which indicate that the coming decade could be as terrible for investors as this one has been terrific.

       After the pain of 2018, this year has been a welcome healing process for investors. Pretty much everything has notched up robust gains, helped by the dovish tilt of central banks, and, more recently, hopes that the global economic slowdown has been halted.

       However, that means more demanding valuations for new investors. The price-to-earnings ratio for US stocks constructed by Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, which adjusts for economic cycles, has climbed back to 30 times — roughly twice its long-term average. Meanwhile, $11.6tn of bonds are trading at negative yields.

       “I think this will be an abnormally low-return decade,” warned Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley. “For bonds it’s just arithmetic, but for equities there are also valuation challenges.”
       …

       1. I agree with that analysis, abnormally low interest rates and deficit spending robs future growth.

       2. Sounds like “permanently high plateau” in negative language. Assumes no crash first.

    2. – Yes. Next question. Got gold?

       – Free markets, we hardly knew ya.

       – “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” – JP Morgan

       1. +1

       2. +10, inflation you know.

28. I’ve been too busy to pay attention, but are new China tariffs off the table for December 15?

    1. Dec 15 2050

       1. “unpossible” the world is going to end due to CAGW in twelve years.

          1. What? We’ve got a couple of extra years now? Wooohooooooo!

29. How is the Chinese economy holding up in the wake of its massive debt binge?

    1. China Suffers Biggest Dollar Bond Default By State-Owned Company in Two Decades
       Bloomberg News
       Bloomberg
       December 11, 2019, 11:51 PM PST

       (Bloomberg) — A major Chinese commodities trader became the biggest dollar bond defaulter among the nation’s state-owned companies in two decades, in a moment of reckoning for Beijing as it struggles to contain credit risk in a weakening economy.

       Tewoo Group Corp. announced results of its unprecedented debt restructuring, which saw a majority of its investors accepting heavy losses. This is expected to reshape investors’ perceptions about government-owned borrowers whose identity has for years offered a relatively strong sense of security.

       It’s also seen offering a road-map for resolving similar debt crises in the future as the prospect of more failures by state-backed firms looms.
       …

    2. China’s Companies Binged on Debt. Now They Can’t Pay the Bill.
       Rising bond defaults raise new questions about whether Beijing can effectively address its huge debt problem.
       By Alexandra Stevenson
       Dec. 12, 2019, 5:00 a.m. ET
       阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版

       HONG KONG — China’s companies racked up some towering bills as they expanded, and the world’s investors and lenders rushed to offer them even more money.

       Now the bills are coming due, and a growing number of Chinese companies can’t pay up, in a sign that the world’s No. 2 economy is feeling the stress from its worst slowdown in nearly three decades.

       Two high-profile companies — a giant government-run trading firm and a conglomerate backed by China’s most distinguished university — are the latest to join a long list of Chinese businesses that have run short of cash when it was time to pay back their debts. Chinese corporate borrowers have defaulted on nearly $20 billion in loans this year.
       …

    3. I’m more concerned about how the U.S. economy is holding up given our massive and ongoing debt binge, not to mention the Fed’s open-ended repo operations that despite bland assurances to the contrary, signal that something is seriously amiss in the financial system. Even our fake CPI and employment data and the permabull shills on CNBC can’t forever conceal the extent of the downturn.

       https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-soar-to-a-more-than-2-year-high-of-252000-in-wake-of-thanksgiving-2019-12-12?mod=bnbh

       1. News like this puts the stawk market in the red. Luckily a tweeter reversed That news and shot stawks back to the green where they belong forever. China deal close! 2050 china deal looking good

       2. I didn’t mean to suggest that China is the only developed country economy where a recent massive debt binge has created the inexorable prospect of a day of reckoning.

30. “Two bullet holes in an apartment window are eerie reminders of an early Sunday morning shooting that has Urban Enclave residents rattled. In between angst and sleepless nights from the shooting, several residents said they can hardly concentrate and have been bunking with each other. They don’t want to be alone — even in their own apartments — and question security measures at one of Tallahassee’s newest student housing complexes.” HA! Come to St. Louis Mo The above blurb is nothing! https://www.kmov.com/news/study-st-louis-named-most-dangerous-city-in-america/article_ee6d2b5e-f6f7-11e8-8421-673232c8242c.html

    1. I grew up there. Among other memorable experiences, I once showed up to a music rehearsal in East St. Louis where I noticed bullet holes in the window above the front entrance to the building where we rehearsed.

       1. I always thought Mike Tyson had some sort of massive speech impediment. He does have a small one, but when I met another guy from East Saint Louis in the army I realized that most of it was just a local “accent”.

31. As the central bankers double down on their radical Keynesian monetary experiments, the fight to quality has begun. Once the average dumbed-down ‘Murican belatedly figures out that the Fed is hurtling us down the road to Weimar 2.0, the stampede out of the Fed’s doomed Ponzi markets and into the safety of precious metals is going to be epic.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-price-rises-as-dovish-central-banks-and-uk-elections-lift-metal-2019-12-12?mod=mw_latestnews

32. Bold Predictions for 2020: Shrinking Homes and a More Stable Market https://www.zillow.com/research/2020-predictions-26100/

    1. As if Zillow would ever admit anything that would scare away their investors.

33. Oh dear. Winners of Vancouver bidding wars of recent years are experiencing involuntary bowel movements as previous headlines about “shifting markets” are giving way to the more blunt and accurate “home values plunge” headlines. Always Be Closing gets a lot harder when FB tales of woe start filling the papers.

    https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/metro-vancouver-single-family-home-values-plunge

34. The mansion used for the Beverly Hillbillies just sold for $150 million. At one time it was priced at $350 million. More than half off but the media has the story being about it selling at a record price for California.

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