thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Prices Are Stuck In The Snow And The Wheels Are Spinning

A report from DS News. “What might make delinquencies rise a long decline into historically low levels after the Great Recession? Mike Rawls, EVP of Servicing for Mr. Cooper points to slowdowns in home prices across the country. ‘Home price appreciation has slowed across the country and we are starting to see early stage delinquencies rising from historic lows,’ Rawls told DS News.”

“A consumer-led recession is unlikely, Kurt Johnson, Chief Credit Officer for Mr. Cooper noted, as incomes have risen steadily through 2019, while unemployment has stayed historically low. This was offset, he noted, by slow home price appreciation. ‘This should increase delinquency rates, particularly with low-down-payment, first-time homebuyers in FHA products—an historically more labor-intensive product to service,’ Johnson said.”

From Magic Valley in Idaho. “New housing continues to pop up in the Magic Valley. Twin Falls permitted more housing in fiscal year 2019 than it has since before the Great Recession. In some ways, the city is just as busy today as it was in 2006 when developers built many spec homes, properties constructed before they’ve been sold. ‘We’re as busy, if not busier,’ Twin Falls Building Official Jarrod Bordi said, noting that many housing projects are bigger and more complex than they were 14 years ago.”

“The uptick isn’t just for single-family homes. There has been a boom in multifamily housing, too. In FY 2019, the city permitted 42 multifamily buildings. That’s up from 27 last year. Jerome Building Official Dave Richey said there were 46 new single-family homes permitted in 2019, up from 42 in 2018. That’s a new record. Back in 2005 and 2006, Richey said, there were about 30 new homes built in Jerome. Richey doesn’t expect construction to slow down.”

The Post and Courier in South Carolina. “The City of Columbia zoning board gave an approval that will make way for the construction of a long-discussed private student housing tower on Assembly Street. Commercial real estate broker Jim Daniel said he’s worried the demand for student housing will soften in years to come. Numerous private student dormitories have been built across Columbia in recent years, with more under construction. And USC has announced big plans to build more on-campus housing. ‘This market appears to be over-saturated,’ Daniel said.”

From KATU in Oregon. “Portland Housing Bureau hosted an informational meeting Tuesday night for landlords. Some landlords aren’t happy with the changes. ‘Stories of people who are selling because they can’t do all these rules and regulations on the big guys,’ said Deborah Imse from Multifamily NW. ‘Well, the big guys have stopped investing in the city of Portland. There’s been a 38 percent drop off on investment in the city of Portland.'”

From Bklyner in New York. “A behemoth looms over Voorhies Avenue in Sheepshead Bay. But some real estate professionals say the Avalon Brooklyn Bay tower will always stand alone. Michael Geraci, a real estate agent and a Sheepshead Bay native, says that the development craze will fade due to a larger plateau of Brooklyn of property values. Data provided by Douglas Elliman Real Estate shows that the average sale price for a condominium in Brooklyn has gone down 5.7% since last year. The average sales price for new developments in Brooklyn also fell over 10% between each quarter in 2019, according to the agency.”

“Touted as a sign of major change in the area, it actually has vacancies in its condominiums after being open for over a year. ‘I think the boom, as far as condo development down here, is pretty much right now the highest point it will be,’ Geraci said. ‘And if anything, it’s going to slow as we go.'”

The Staten Island Advance in New York. “Work has been delayed at Lighthouse Point — a $250 million luxury apartment building to be equipped with retail, office space and a Westin Hotel in St. George — after the developer’s contractor filed for bankruptcy protection, the Advance has learned. Hollister Construction Services didn’t return several Advance phone calls for comment regarding the bankruptcy protection or the partial stop work order issued by the DOB.”

The Wall Street Journal on California. “Lachlan Murdoch has paid roughly $150 million for Chartwell, a Bel-Air estate, according to people familiar with the deal. When it listed in 2017 for $350 million, the château-style home was the most expensive in the country. Agents say Los Angeles has been the best performing luxury market in the country this year, in terms of ultra-high price tags. Other segments of the market, such as the $10 million to $40 million price category, have suffered from an oversupply of spec homes, which has been a drag on prices.”

The Union Tribune in California. “Homebuilding is down throughout much of Southern California, but San Diego had the second-biggest year-over-year drop behind Santa Barbara County, which is down 32 percent. Real estate analyst Gary London pointed to a slight slowdown from developers downtown as one of the reasons for the reduction this year. For at least the last five years, building numbers throughout the county have been dominated by downtown apartment construction. London said downtown, which has the highest vacancy numbers in the county, could be reaching market saturation.”

“Gary Kent, a La Jolla-based real estate agent, said he keeps running into nervous builders with a 6,846-square-foot lot he is selling in Pacific Beach for $799,000. ‘A lot of the builders I’m talking to say they are not sure about buying a lot now,’ he said, ‘because they don’t know what the market will be like in a year when they try to sell the house.'”

From Socket Site in California. “Purchased for $1.18 million in late 2014, the lavishly remodeled unit #1 in the former Smitty Knitting Factory building at 75 Lansing Street, returned to the market priced at $1.295 million this past June. Reduced to $1.198 million in September and then to $1.145 million last month, at which point the listing was updated to note that the seller would also pre-pay one year worth of HOA dues ($496 per month) along with one year of parking fees ($300 per month) or grant a comparable credit toward closing costs, the re-sale of 75 Lansing Street #1 has now closed escrow with a contact price of $1.1 million.”

The Chicago Tribune in Illinois. “A five-bedroom, 5,299-square-foot vintage ‘Chateau-esque Revival’ -style mansion in Evanston sold Thursday for $1.85 million. The sellers paid $2.25 million for the mansion in 2013. They first listed it in April 2018 for $2.65 million and cut their asking price to $2.49 million in November 2018 and then to $2.2 million in May. They made their final price reduction, to just under $2 million, in October.”

The Boulder Daily Camera in Colorado. “The real estate market in Boulder County completely stagnated in 2019, according to data recently released by the Colorado Association of Realtors, and with a projected slowing of the economy and a presidential election, which often causes consumer confidence to dip, it doesn’t appear the market will be on the rise again anytime soon.”

“‘Boulder County’s homes prices are stuck in the snow and the wheels are spinning,’ Boulder-area Realtor Kelly Moye stated in a Colorado Association of Realtors news release. ‘It’s like someone just held it in time and nothing changed. I think it’s a trend we are going to see continue, too.'”

“‘Wages aren’t keeping up with home prices in Boulder, so people are going to the outlying areas, like Broomfield, and enjoying Boulder on the weekends,’ Moye said. ‘Boulder likes to think their city is insulated from these market fluctuations, and in a lot of senses, they’re right, because of the university and (the city’s) no growth policies, but they’re not as insulated as they think.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 131 Comments

    1. Labour was resoundingly rejected by heritage Britons, while its support base came overwhelmingly from the benefits spongers the globalists and their quislings have imported in massive numbers recent decades. Likewise, when the collectivists in America sent out communist hippies to try to recruit American construction workers, they ended up getting their asses beat, and realized they’d have to import voters if their “fundamental transformation” was to succeed. In places like Virginia, the plan has succeeded, as foreign born voters and government workers switched the state from Red to Blue, and are now ramming through the usual globalist agendas like disarming the populace. It’s no accident that Comrade Pelosi and the DNC are going all-out to import as many millions of Third World dependency voters as they can and resettle them in the red states, at the behest of their globalist oligarch wire-pullers.

      1. “In places like Virginia, the plan has succeeded, as foreign born voters and government workers switched the state from Red to Blue, and are now ramming through the usual globalist agendas like disarming the populace.”

        Saw a comment recently: “I am about to turn in my weapons barrel first to these treasonous politicians.”

    2. Yeah, it is 2015 all over again. Celebrities stomping their little feet. Resist, he’s not my prime minister. Boris is a racist! Urban so-called elites calling for another vote. Meanwhile Labour is accused of not listening – to working people – the irony!

      So like Labour, these people have doubled down. I watched a Democratic meeting a year ago where this guy in Chicago asked, “when did our party become the illegal immigration party?” It sure as heck wasn’t under Obammie-Biden, cuz they deported 3 million illegals.

      1. FWIW, the Dems control the House and they might be able to hang onto it, and even if they don’t, I’m not expecting a GOP landslide in Congress next year, nothing like the Tories’ victory.

        1. It depends on which states these voters are in:

          New polls show black support for Trump surging | Newsday
          https://www.newsday.com › Opinion › Commentary
          Dec 3, 2019 – “We’ve got three polls today showing Donald Trump at 30 percent or higher with black voters,”… The new Emerson poll puts Trump at 35 percent with black voters and 38 percent with Hispanics. …

          3. “What if the Dems put up a black/Hispanic VP pick?”

            Not gonna work this time around. Blacks aren’t stupid, and they’re not going to be taken for fools anymore.

            “While some members of the self-involved black bourgeoisie nauseatingly praised her, younger blacks and black progressives were taking deeper, dispassionate dives into Harris’ real-world record. They didn’t like what they found.”

            “Shockingly, some black people are even beginning to reevaluate Barack Obama, who was once seen as almost divine and untouchable. One black voter from Atlanta said of Obama types to reporter Astead Herndon, “I’m not falling for that again.””

            https://news.yahoo.com/kamala-harris-flames-black-people-100015483.html

          4. “What if the Dems put up a black/Hispanic VP pick?”

            Haven’t we learned that Identity Politics fail to produce substantive results?

        2. Most globalist media outlets have long since banned their comments section, since they were invariably overrun with pugnacious truth-tellers disputing and mocking The Narrative and calling out Real Journalists on their lies, omissions, and dissembling.

          1. Exactly. The only reason I look at yahoo is for the comments on their stories. MSN did away with comments.

      3. Did he Ben or did he change the definition of deport, so people just merely turn around at the border get counted as deported? I accept your main point, he did briefly increase deportations but it was to provide cover for the gang of eight plan. When that failed things like the Dreamer’s act followed. Obama was the last of the left who hid their agendas and were trying to boil the frog slowly. The new generation has no patience and Trump has gotten them all to drop the masks.

        1. Well, I listen to the Green Line radio show and they had a lot to say about it. But it sure wasn’t off the table, like the anti-ICE people are now. Without border patrol and ICE, these borders would be run by the cartels. Who are BTW, some of the worst people to ever breathe air.

      5. “I watched a Democratic meeting a year ago where this guy in Chicago asked, “when did our party become the illegal immigration party?””

        The Democrats are a sick joke anymore. They were supposed to be the party for the working man – the blue collar guy. Now they are importing as many illegals as they can to displace those blue collar workers while driving down their wages, and satiating corporate cheaters who hire them.

      6. Celebrities stomping their little feet. Resist, he’s not my prime minister.

        No-talent celebrities trying to curry favor with their globalist masters by virtue-signaling their outrage on Twitter are getting scorched by UK voters fed up to the back teeth with such vapid useless creatures parroting their approved Narrative talking points.

        https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7789693/Lily-Allen-DELETES-Twitter-account-amid-furious-backlash-saying-Tories-won-UK-racism.html

          1. They’re losing badly. Globalist propaganda outlets have been forced to shut virtually all of their comment sections due to the overwhelming majority of comments calling BS on The Narrative, and even with heavy censorship in Oligopoly sites like YouTube and Facebook, the few globalist shills and virtue signalers are vastly outnumbered by red-pilled posters.

      7. Yeah, it is 2015 all over again. Celebrities stomping their little feet. Resist, he’s not my prime minister.

        This is how the Left always reacts to not getting its way. Every.single.time. And these collectivist control freaks think that once they’ve got a majority of dependency voters, those of us who despise such far-left Pol Pot wanna-bes are going to meekly give up our 2nd Amendment rights? Think again.

        https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/12/14/exclusive-video-this-is-what-democracy-looks-like-mob-chants-during-violent-clashes-with-police-over-losing-election/

    3. “Get woke, go broke.”

      I’m not sure who coined the phrase. But the first time I heard it was in reference to Hollywood effing up movies — notably Ghostbusters and the new Star Wars — to push an identity politics agenda. I didn’t realize it had leaked into politics.

      It will interesting to see whether the Democrats’ demographic gamble pays off. They think that the young and POC will vote Dem forever. It’s going to depend heavily on whether the immigrant kids (and Millenials) will assimilate the American value of individual merit, or whether they will vote to tax what’s left of the middle class to death in the name of providing for their families. If they believe in merit, the old GOP might fade away but you’ll see a massive split in the Dem party as those who worked for their wealth finally red pill. If the young voters stick with the victimhood and the freebies, I expect to see the US turn into Argentina or even Venezuela within my lifetime.

      1. notably Ghostbusters and the new Star Wars

        Disney has an interesting problem on its hands. It has a Star Wars based live action series, The Mandalorian, which for the most part eschews the SJW dreck that has infected the current movies, and people are saying that it’s better than the new movies (well, not that hard to do as the bar was very low).

        The next SW movie opens in a few days and i will be interesting to see how it does. I expect it will do OK, as most SW fans will go to see it, but how many will go back to see it again? How will the merchandise sell? Whoever was in charge of merchandising The Mandalorian dropped the ball, big time, as people are searching for non existent “Baby Yoda” merchandise at stores.

        I have seen The Last Jedi just once, even though it was on Netflix. I thought it was so bad that I passed on watching it again. I think I will pass altogether on watching The Rise of Skywalker.

        1. seen The Last Jedi just once, even though it was on Netflix. I thought it was so bad that I passed on watching it again. I think I will pass altogether on watching The Rise of Skywalker.

          Same here, though I watched all the others from the first one in the theater.

      2. If the young voters stick with the victimhood and the freebies, I expect to see the US turn into Argentina or even Venezuela within my lifetime.

        It will be breathtaking to see how quickly everything unravels when we reach that stage.

      3. Read the book “Militant Normals” by Kurt Schlichter.

        He writes for Townhall dot com and has been banned for life from appearing on CNN.

        Twitter blue checkmarks don’t win elections, they lose civil wars.

  2. DS News is a website for the foreclosure biz:

    ”Home price appreciation has slowed across the country and we are starting to see early stage delinquencies rising from historic lows’

    At the edge o the credit envelope, the riskiest buyers fold first. Especially if they go to refi 3 months after buying and find out they are underwater.

    ‘offset, he noted, by slow home price appreciation. ‘This should increase delinquency rates, particularly with low-down-payment, first-time homebuyers in FHA products—an historically more labor-intensive product to service’

    More labor intensive cuz you have to kick them out. Wealthier FB’s probably don’t live in the first shacks they walk away from.

    What a guy this Mel Watt is, eh? Fudge it all up, year after year and retires.

    1. “At the edge o the credit envelope, the riskiest buyers fold first. Especially if they go to refi 3 months after buying and find out they are underwater.”

      How could they even refi when they didn’t put a nickel down?

  3. ‘Purchased for $1.18 million in late 2014, the lavishly remodeled unit…has now closed escrow with a contact price of $1.1 million’

    A little over 5 years of bubble – poof!

    ‘sold Thursday for $1.85 million. The sellers paid $2.25 million for the mansion in 2013’

    6 years!

  4. “Wages aren’t keeping up with home prices in Boulder”

    What happens when there are literally zero options of real estate for sale that someone would want to buy? I don’t mean that one would qualify for a mortgage for to buy, I mean want to buy.

    If I could buy my current rental in South Denver for $125,000 with a monthly HOA of $200 or less, I would buy it, for cash. But I can’t.

    I don’t even want more living space (that I’d have to pay for increased heat or electricity) or a yard and landscaping that requires maintenance. The only additional space I’d want is a garage for a workshop and storage of tools and recreational gear.

    Denver is like a prison of traffic and overpriced used housing where you make too much money to make escaping from jail even worth it.

    P.S. Debt is slavery.

    1. You need a wife-n-kids, 401. You’d be so broke that you’d have to put the Christmas tree on your charge card.

    2. Denver is like a prison of traffic and overpriced used housing where you make too much money to make escaping from jail even worth it.

      A apt description of any metro area with jobs.

  5. ‘Well, the big guys have stopped investing in the city of Portland. There’s been a 38 percent drop off on investment in the city of Portland.’”

    Nobody in their right mind is going to “invest” in progressive-maladministered cesspools like Portland that are sinking into dystopia.

    1. Especially when returns at the going rate are negative. These apartment people have painted themselves into a corner.

  6. “‘Boulder County’s homes prices are stuck in the snow and the wheels are spinning,’ Boulder-area Realtor Kelly Moye stated in a Colorado Association of Realtors news release. ‘

    Bounder is controlled by a far-left cabal that is all about extracting wealth by any means necessary to buy the votes of the social parasites that comprise its support base. If you own a shack in Bolshevik-maladministered municipalities like Boulder or Denver, you better get ready to pay through the nose once the tax base starts to shrink as the productive portion of the population starts to flee to the free states.

    1. Two years ago I was thinking of changing jobs. A lot of potential employers are located in downtown Boulder, where they cram desks in sweatshop style. At one place I asked what they did for parking.

      “We just ride our bicycles.” The skinny jeans kid told me. “What do people who don’t live in Boulder do?” I asked. “They pay $12 a day to park in a parking garage.” He cheerfully replied. “But you need to arrive early, cuz they fill up fast.”

      From what I could tell, there are basically four types of people in Boulder: well to do olds, college people (faculty, staff and students). STEM millennials, and the unwashed who make their lunches.

      1. Boulder in 2017 per city-data:

        80.6% white
        9.3% Hispanic
        5.4% Asian
        1.1% black

        Boulder is the state capital of the virtue signal, i.e. the COEXIST sticker on the Prius, the Tibetan prayer flags fluttering on the front porch, the “hate has no home here” yard sign.

          1. When is the last time conservatives prevented a woke warrior from speaking? Who really is filled with hate?

        2. 9.3% Hispanic.

          Come to places like Wheaton or Silver Spring MD and we’ll see how fast those yard signs disappear.

      3. From what I could tell, there are basically four types of people in Boulder: well to do olds, college people (faculty, staff and students). STEM millennials, and the unwashed who make their lunches.

        When I was there it was those types plus a few like me…older than millennials but part of the old school tech that had been there since the 80s but never at the right place at the right time to become a “well to do old”.

  7. “Home price appreciation has slowed across the country and we are starting to see early stage delinquencies rising from historic lows,’ Rawls told DS News.”

    Check.

    “A consumer-led recession is unlikely, Kurt Johnson, Chief Credit Officer for Mr. Cooper noted, as incomes have risen steadily through 2019, while unemployment has stayed historically low.”

    Let’s take a look at this:

    Home price appreciation has slowed across the country. This means the magical forces of equity wealth production has slowed. If this is true then this Consumer-led recession is not only likely, it seems to be baked in the cake.

    Yeah, income have risen steadily through 2019, while unemployment has stayed historically low because consumer spending was strong. But consumer spending will not remain strong if consumers run out of money to spend, and they will run out of money to spend if the magic of continuous home equity wealth production halts or (the horror!) moves into reverse.

    Stay tuned.

    1. Gosh, Mr. Banker, it’s a good thing that everyone who signed on the dotted line for an overpriced shack are exemplars of moral rectitude who as a point of honor would never walk away from their financial obligations, despite watching the value of their “investment” sinking like a mob informant in the East River.

      Oh, wait….

      1. It’s a good thing that no matter what happens to the loans I float to deadbeats and other assorted dummies I and my buddies are guaranteed to be bailed out by ignorant taxpayers.

        As for the hefty fees that were extracted from these loans? Those I get to keep.

        Bankers reap, taxpayers weep.

        Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaha.

    2. “Home price appreciation has slowed across the country. This means the magical forces of equity wealth production has slowed. If this is true then this Consumer-led recession is not only likely, it seems to be baked in the cake.”

      True, eventually. However, we are at record amounts of home equity right now that can be tapped so it is not imminent.

      1. True, eventually. However, we are at record amounts of home equity right now that can be tapped so it is not imminent.

        You don’t think that which will ever be tapped hasn’t already been tapped?

        1. My guess is that it’s been tapped, but people are still able to keep up the minimum payments. I give it a year.

          1. The HELOC rates are likely extremely low because of the low rate environment. Probably making interest only payments.

          1. Brokers are liars.

            3% doesn’t cover the losses to depreciation. Add in the fact that housing prices are falling and it makes what is always a loss even more severe.

            Kaaawa, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 23% YOY Hawaii Housing Market Slips Into The Abyss

            https://www.movoto.com/kaaawa-hi/market-trends/

            As one noted economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”

          4. Math: $200,000 house, being paid back around 5% per year due to 20 year mortgage. Thus average year during mortgage $10,000 gets paid back, of course less during early years more during later years. Assume you have reached a point where the equity has reached 30 percent of the house. Or $60,000 dollars now assume during a year the house value declines by 2%. Thus you have lost $4,000 in equity. But you have paid off $10,000. You still have added $6,000 in equity. Thus at the start of the year you had $60,000 at the end you have $66,000. Thus a ten percent gain. Donkey math no, reality math, you bet your azz.

          5. ‘Donkey math no, reality math’

            This is some of the thickest horsesh!t I’ve ever read. No broken furnaces, no roof replacement, no insurance or taxes or interest payments.

          6. “This is some of the thickest horsesh!t I’ve ever read. No broken furnaces, no roof replacement, no insurance or taxes or interest payments.”

            Ben, in another post I even said that people going into retirement do not have paid off houses since they are using home equity loans to fund repairs which they used to be able to pay for cash flow so I do not disagree with you on things like roof replacement or broken furnaces. The issue was whether it was possible to have equity rising in houses at the same time housing prices were dropping slowly and the answer is yes. Now, I have not ignored interest payments they are a part of every mortgage payment, as you well know it is why the mortgage gets paid off fastest at the end because increasingly the share of the payment going to interest decreases. I am not ignoring taxes, but they really do not impact just the building of equity argument. Of course, for those under the SALT limits taxes and interest paid provide a tax break. Of course, only a small percentage of the amount paid but nevertheless some of it. Roofs and furnaces do not have to be purchased every year. Of course, under true accounting the depreciation should be reflected but most people are not going to consider it until they buy the furnace or replace the roof, and if they use a home equity loan start to pay the extra each month. Of course, if we consider true accounting the new roof or furnace should increase the equity of the house.

            In sum, I am not arguing that it makes sense to buy a house when the value of the house is dropping. Of course, that is not wise. However, if people can make their payments, they can be building equity even in a slight down market and that is particularly true when more of the houses value is in the land and not the structure.

    3. “A consumer-led recession is unlikely…”

      I hear this paraphrased daily on Bloomberg News, etc. “The consumer is very strong!” Maybe they’re hoping if they repeat it enough times, it will come true.

    2. Well, since it sold for more than it did last time (it is, as the article documents, the highest price for an LA shack ever) then it didn’t really drop, did it? All that happened is that the seller couldn’t find a sucker willing to pay $350M.

      1. ‘it didn’t really drop, did it?’

        Oh only $200 M. Like the guy said the other day, “Denver is to the moon Alice!”

        Sure.

        1. From the LA Times: “The famously private Perenchio, who died in 2017 at 86, acquired the main estate for nearly $14 million in 1986, and added three contiguous parcels in the 1980s. Under his direction, the main residence was enhanced and restored by designer Henri Samuel and architect Pierre Barbe to create a Versailles-like palace that accommodated his growing art collection and a cellar for one of California’s largest private wine collections.”

          So there’s no good way to compare this sale to the previous sales since the property was expanded and restored.

          1. “So there’s no good way to compare this sale to the previous sales since the property was expanded and restored.”

            It’s a simple comparison. If New Sale Price < Old Sale Price + Expansion and Restoration Costs, they fooked up.

        2. Let’s not forget that this was suppose to be a billion dollar sale and ended up being around a $200 million sale due to the assumption of debt. The $350 million dollar price was considered reasonable by some people at the time. It is clear that there has been a titanic shift in valuation in the LA area. I sure Murdoch thinks he has obtained a bargain but I think history may make him think again. LA is the new Detroit, it has a long way to fall.
          https://www.businessinsider.com/los-angeles-billion-dollar-mountain-for-sale-2018-7

  12. O/T but fun article of local interest.

    A Colorado avalanche instructor’s survey of backcountry skiers’ preparedness had “shocking” results:

    https://coloradosun.com/2019/12/12/colorado-backcountry-avalanche-unprepared-skiers/

    As much as I condone millennial Instagram whores winning some more Darwin awards, their actions endanger the lives of search and rescue. I completed my level 1 avalanche training with the Colorado Mountain School in Rocky Mountain National Park a few years ago, and with that additional training and knowledge, my level of risk tolerance has dropped, not increased.

    1. I don’t know what the protocol is, but I am in favor of sending a bill to all of these adrenaline junkies for the entire search and rescue operation.

    2. To be fair, GenXers have had their share of daredevils. It was young Xers who did all the skateboarding and bungee-jumping. The inaugural summer X-games was held in 1995, with winter games in 1996.

        1. I rode my bike in the snow and slush in a Midwestern college town for 5+ years. That was an X-game in itself.

          3. Could be Northwestern, Washington University, Carlton, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, etc. There are a number of fine educational institutions in the Midwest where one can freeze during the winter months en route to a degree.

      2. Cool. Although daredevils in civilization are not the problem to the system that backcountry daredevils are. Search and rescue operations are insanely expensive, mostly due to helicopters I think.

        1. “Search and rescue operations are insanely expensive, mostly due to helicopters I think.”

          It’s really a dangerous profession, and keeping those professionals trained in first-responder medical skills combined with cold weather, rope mountaineering, scuba, wild animals, etc., isn’t cheap. Neither is a 24-hr all weather aircraft fitted with search and rescue equipment as well as the trained crew chiefs and pilots. However, these expenses pale in comparison to maintaining a 24/7 tier-1 medical trauma center like Harborview Medical Center in Seattle.

  13. Which one? Isn’t there a security issue when someone is so open to blackmail? There was a deep throat in the Watergate scandal. So is she the deep throat of this impeachment?

  15. Glenn Greenwald is one of an infinitesimally small number of left-leaning journalists who boldly and at great personal risk has taken a principled stand against the Deep State’s Orwellian proclivities and unscrupulous targeting of political opponents. He has also called out the MSM on its craven journalistic omertà when it comes to exposing such malfeasance.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ig-report-fbi-spying-exposes-scandal-historic-magnitude-us-media

  16. I was looking the English versions of the Chinese press and I found it very reassuring. Virtually, nothing but a few platitudes about the trade deal. The Chinese did what they said they would never do. They stopped punishing our farmers without the tariffs being removed. There really isn’ t any pressure on Trump to remove or even reduce the tariffs now.

    2. Was in Berlin for the first time this summer. It was quite remarkable to stumble across these larger-than-life statues in the middle of a public park. I was the only member of my group who instantly recognized them for who they were, a testimonial vestige of the failed communistic state which commissioned them.

      1. Discussion of the Industrial Revolution is usually associated with its benefits, and environmental impact as the negative cost. Rarely mentioned is the widening gap of the economic classes that took place. Indeed, witness today’s “winner take all” bounty of the Information Age giants.

      2. Was in Berlin for the first time this summer. It was quite remarkable to stumble across these larger-than-life statues in the middle of a public park.

        Were you there in the evening? Just curious if things have gotten worse in regard to the unemployed immigrants hanging out in the parks in the evenings. While we were there 3 years ago the big news was a sexual assault on one of the zoo animals in the park.

        1. the big news was a sexual assault on one of the zoo animals in the park.

          This is probably not the appropriate follow-up question but I can’t help be curious…*which* animal??

          1. It’s been three years. I remember thinking at the time it would be funnier if it was a goat…but I believe it was a donkey.

  18. In another article in the same publication the Chinese press this about property speculation, I think the authorities are trying to cover their butts by pointing out what was said in 2016:

    The annual Central Economic Work Conference, which ended on Thursday, has set the tone for the real estate market for the coming year, stressing the need to stabilize land and home prices as well as market expectations to ensure the steady and healthy development of the property market, which analysts see as a signal that China’s economy will further trim its heavy reliance on property.
    “To make sure the property market develops steadily and healthily, we must uphold the principle that ‘housing is for living in, not speculation’, and implement policies in accordance with each city’s requirements whilst the long-term mechanism for stabilizing land prices, home prices and market expectations is being created,” noted the Central Economic Work Conference.
    Despite slower economic growth, the central authorities reaffirmed that property speculation will be strictly controlled, leaving little room to maneuver for local policies to make any adjustment in this regard, said Yan Yuejin, research director at the EHouse China R&D Institute.
    Since the Central Economic Work Conference held in 2016 raised the principle that housing is for living in, not speculation, the country has reiterated the principle, especially during the second half of this year, when several local governments relaxed their restrictions on home purchases.

    1. Gay men and lesbian women are beginning to wake up and realize they are just pawns in the game of the globalist push toward the acceptance (now in the legal system, and soon, at gunpoint) of a myriad stew of degeneracy that has nothing to do with same-sex attraction.

      Same way black Americans got thrown under the bus in favor of tens of millions of illegal invaders.

      This country doesn’t have a future 🙁

      2. they are just pawns

        The term “useful idiots” comes to mind. Not just for them, though. For every interest group who thought the Ds really cared about them in contrast to the cold hearted Rs. I can’t stand the R sleaze sometimes but it has always paled in comparison to what goes on in the name of compassion.

  21. Just opened the mail, letter from PM. Went from no lease to a new one year lease with a start date of February 1, $100 increase. Maybe those “to the moon” articles the other day tipped it. All of LA is moving here, I hear.
    I was sure it was going to be the “get out” letter. I don’t like the house, but the thought of moving…😐

    1. Tell them you’d like to stay but the $100 is too much and you’re seeing free 1st month rent at a lot of apartments and are thinking of just moving unless they keep the rent the same.

      1. In the past I’ve been pretty kamikaze as far as negotiating goes, even living rent free for a year, but I’m old (chronologically) now. I didn’t realize the last downturn was my last chance for stability here. I made an offer in 2011 but the owner p!ssed me off by asking $40K over market. However, in retrospect, the house was very cheap (so-so neighborhood.) I should have eaten it, since the place has more than doubled since. Woulda, coulda, blah blah.
        Every move costs $$$ even locally and a lot of your stuff gets dinged if not outright ruined. I’m so tired of it. Last time we moved in 2015 it was 108°. I threw up for two days after we landed in the new place from heatstroke and still had to take care of my mother (she was very sick.) Good times.
        I am weirdly happy that I know we’re good for the next year. Maybe I’ll ask for two, even though I’m not into Vegas anymore.
        I’ve adjusted my expectations. I think all the stress of the past years kind of knocked me down, but I’m starting to shake it off.
        Jeff, you know what I’m talking about.

        1. I feel bad for both of you. It is criminal how a basic need has been inflated in price just to promote globalism. PTB saw it as the only way to maintain spending while sending good paying jobs overseas. Housing is shelter and the working class deserves a home which is paid off by retirement. Now, it is has become impossible to buy for many and even if they do buy the low wages mean home equity loans are constantly being used either to maintain it or to meet unexpected bills. Thus, retirement does not mean a debt free home. I have escaped that fate because lawyers did not pour across the Rio Grande. Perhaps if they did globalism would have been fought earlier. However, I come from a blue collar family, my father worked in a woolen mill, was a police office and then an interstate bus driver. All the time, the PTB were making it more difficult for blue collar workers. Union mill closed to run to the non-union south etc. However, the interesting in the early 70’s he bought a starter home in Vermont for less than he was making, house $13,000 and he was making $20,000 a year. That same house sold recently for about $230,000. Most lawyers are not making near that in the area never mind around 50% higher than the price of the house. To me that shows just how distorted housing prices have become.

          1. lawyers did not pour across the Rio Grande

            The impact of globalism on patent attorneys employed by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies was noticeable.

    2. We received our “get out” letter this fall after fifteen years of renting the same place. Assuming they sold at their list price, they made a nominal capital gain of 15% (1% per year) which was overshadowed by inflation of 34.6%, based on the CPI-U over the period, a real loss of nearly 10% before considering transaction or holding costs or the opportunity cost of not investing in something with a better return. I’m not sure what they made due to paying down principle, but it was offset by covering maintenance and repair, HOA dues, groundskeepers, property taxes, insurance, real estate sales commissions, etc.

      Meanwhile we got to rent a place in a nice area for around 20% of our household income, without physical or financial responsibility for yardwork or maintenance issues. Moving sux, but I feel ok about the financial outcome of the decision to rent. And we’re getting into a nicer place less than a mile away for only slightly more rent (still below 20% of household income).

      1. PS One more comparison: The amount of money we saved by not owning a home and investing our spare change elsewhere is nearly enough to purchase the place at the current price with a 100% downpayment.

        2. Professor Bear,

          Years ago I often wondered if you were ever going to buy. Your boycott of a real estate market that’s built on sand has paid off for you based on the math you gave in your post.

          If people would of just refused to buy when crazy prices start, than these speculator bubbles would burn out sooner.

          Would you pay 100 thousand for a 10 thousand dollar car just because you got good financing on the car?

          Anyway, my hat off to you for holding your ground and refusing to be a stupid ass.

      2. Sorry about your inconvenience and expense. Of course, you have made the right decision to rent a new place instead of buying now.

        1. Since moving to California in the mid-1990s, the real estate market has been a constant background distraction. We spent eight years as condo owners, riding the bubble up, then fifteen years as renters, watching the first wave of housing bubble collapse, followed by the Fed’s housing market reflation initiative, from the sidelines. It’s been irritating at times, but also fascinating, to watch a historic mania unfold from a front row seat.

      3. “Meanwhile we got to rent a place in a nice area for around 20% of our household income…”

        That’s a good place to be. I was never close to that level of comfort in California, so we moved to eastern Washington state.

        1. I’ve been out there, to visit a professor friend in Pullman. I have to say the drive from Spokane to Pullman is some of the most barren terrain I’ve ever seen.

          1. In our defense, from Spokane to Pullman there are endless dry-land (non-irrigation) wheat fields that provide the ingredients for your morning toast. You are probably used to seeing liquor stores, laundromats and storefront churches every few blocks.

  26. “There were 6,491 building permits issued in the first nine months of the year, said the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California, down 24 percent from the same time last year.

    Homebuilding is down throughout much of Southern California, but San Diego had the second-biggest year-over-year drop behind Santa Barbara County, which is down 32 percent.

    Experts give a variety of reasons for the slowdown: Increasing costs of construction, concern over a slowing economy and public opposition to new projects.”

    It sure as hell sounds like another SoCal real estate bust is taking shape, especially when you factor in recent news of the first year-over-year price declines in seven years for San Diego, plus an increasing net flow of Californians out of the state.

    1. “sure as hell sounds like another SoCal real estate bust is taking shape“

      Agreed. the restrictions on chinese money entering our RE market are what i believe to be the black swan but the REIC / realtor parrots keep chirping the same “shortage, RE only goes up” BS, the remaining knife catchers are digging there Loan owner graves. I jist wish we could bury them a bit faster… slow moving train wreck going on, patience is key.

  28. the restrictions on chinese money entering our RE market are what i believe to be the black swan

    Major part but I think it a little broader. Trump has delivered a one/ two punch to high end housing. One is the restrictions on SALT. But the second is his efforts to address unfair trade. It was not just China which was creating millionaires and billionaires. The key to becoming wealth quick was to pay workers ten cents an hour but then sell their production to wealthy countries at prices not much different from items produced with $12 an hour later. Then, these newly rich owners of these factories would buy multiple homes. They would have a house in their home countries, a house in the U.S. and perhaps London etc. Now, due to Trump’s restrictions and just the fact that wage levels have narrowed between countries, getting rich quick is not so easy. When China was at 10 cents an hour, a US company could be three times as efficient but if it was paying $10 an hour, it was still competing against 30 cents labor costs. Now if it is paying $15 and China is paying $5 it is a fair fight. Put on tariffs and China loses bigly.

Comments are closed.