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We’ve Been Behind The Market And Chasing It Downward

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “‘Brace yourself!’ warned Judi Desiderio, the C.E.O. of Town and Country Real Estate, as a lead-in to her analysis, which showed a 44-percent decrease in overall home sales during the quarter. ‘In my three decades of reporting on Hamptons real estate statistics, this is the first time we’ve experienced such declines without the catalyst of a financial crisis such as the ’87 crash or when Bear [Stearns] and Lehman [Brothers] fell,’ she said.”

“Town and Country found that, compared to the same quarter of 2018, sales were down 56 percent in Montauk, 68 percent in Amagansett, 43 percent in East Hampton and Wainscott, 50 percent in East Hampton Village, and 71 percent in Sag Harbor Village.”

“The prewar duplex had five bedrooms, two fireplaces and herringbone-patterned floors. But the co-op apartment at 730 Park Avenue was, nonetheless, a flop with buyers. There were no takers at $6.75 million in 2017, when Corcoran first listed it. There were still none at $5.95 million, in 2018, when Sotheby’s got the listing. Or, at $5.5 million. Or, at $4.95 million. In fact, the magic number would be $4 million, which is what the apartment sold for in mid-January after being marketed for three years.”

“‘Welcome to the new normal,’ said Nikki Field, the Sotheby’s agent behind the deal. While the Upper East Side apartment was hindered by a ground-floor location and dated interiors, a bigger challenge was pricing, she said. ‘We’ve been behind the market and chasing it downward.'”

“As the city’s real estate market continues to struggle, with values seeming to erode within the course of months, figuring out how much to charge for apartments has become increasingly difficult, according to sellers, brokers and appraisers. ‘You would be amazed by all the times we hear the phrase, ‘Well, I need to get this amount,’ said Frederick Peters, the chief executive of the brokerage Warburg Realty. ‘But markets don’t work that way. The market doesn’t care what you need.'”

“Slashing prices isn’t just a high-end phenomenon. ‘Sellers are making cuts to their list price more frequently than last year, regardless of their homes’ initial price,’ said Nancy Wu, a StreetEasy economist. ‘The weakness we’ve seen in Manhattan’s sales market has trickled down from the top of the market.'”

“Compound, a real estate investment app , is in contract to buy a one-bedroom unit at the Faena House condo in Miami Beach for $2.6 million. The 1,185-square-foot, eighth floor pad last sold for $3.4 million in 2015.”

“Former Goldman Sachs partner Jonathan Sobel got a deal on two luxury condos in Surfside. Property records show Sobel’s Surfside N815 LLC and Surfside S610LLC paid a combined $9.25 million for two units at the Four Seasons Residences at The Surf Club. Each unit traded for about $1 million less than its previous sale.”

“The Northfield mansion lost in foreclosure last year by former Chicago Bears linebacker Lance Briggs sold this week for less than half what he paid for it dozen years ago, records show. Briggs bought the six-bedroom, 5,200-square-foot brick and stone English-style home as new construction for $2.3 million in 2008. In June 2017, Citibank filed for foreclosure on the 1.04-acre property which was being offered for sale for over $2 million at the time, according to court and property records.”

“Nearly two years later, CitiMortgage took over the property following a court-ordered sale. The asking price was lowered to below $1 million in November 2019, according to its listing. The sale closed Tuesday for $1.1 million. Briggs lost another North Shore property in foreclosure last year, when Deutsche Bank National Trust Company took control of a Northbrook townhome he purchased in 2006, according to court and property records. That property was auctioned last month, but its sale has yet to close.”

“A 13,000-square-foot estate home in Coto de Caza that hit the market in April 2019 for $4.995 million, according to the Multiple Listings Service, has sold as a short sale. It fetched $3.7 million.”

“The Brentwood home of late character actor Karl Malden just sold for $2.695 million. That’s $800,000 shy of the asking price, records show.”

“Year in Review: 2019 vs 2018. 2018 Madison Park/Washington Park/Broadmoor: Average price per square foot: $739. Average days on market: 26. 2019 Madison Park/Washington Park/Broadmoor: Average price per square foot: $699. Average days on market: 69.”

“The $500,000 home in North Texas is changing fast, says Lisa Birdsong, an agent in the Frisco office of Coldwell Banker Realty. And so are the buyers of homes priced at or near the half-million dollar mark, she adds. ‘What we’re seeing right now is buyers are so much more patient than they were even a year-and-a-half ago,’ Birdsong said in an interview with the Dallas Business Journal. ‘We saw such a frenzy back in the high years. Everything was moving fast. They aren’t doing that anymore.'”

“Builders in the suburbs are ‘spoiling’ the buyers, Birdsong said, with features on newly constructed homes at the $500,000 price such as granite or quartz countertops, hardwood flooring throughout, high-end appliances and outdoor fireplaces. Three and even four-car garages have become a staple at the half-million mark in the suburbs, Birdsong added. The combination of a getting a new-build and extras like those make it difficult for resale homes to compete, even if they’re closer in, Birdsong said.”

“Charles El-Moussa, president of Coldwell Banker Realty Texas, said $500,000 homes are a solid move-up market. ‘The average price here (in North Texas) is in the $300s,’ El-Moussa said. ‘So when you go to $500,000, you’re tailoring to a little higher buyer. It’s in the middle block. It’s a sweet spot, and there are quite a few homes in that price category.’ Because of new, speculative home construction in northern locales like Prosper, it has become a buyer’s market, she said.”

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This Post Has 170 Comments

  1. Ahem…

    ‘Slashing prices isn’t just a high-end phenomenon. ‘Sellers are making cuts to their list price more frequently than last year, regardless of their homes’ initial price… ‘The weakness we’ve seen in Manhattan’s sales market has trickled down from the top of the market’

  2. ‘We saw such a frenzy back in the high years. Everything was moving fast. They aren’t doing that anymore’

    Gosh, I hope nobody overpaid in such an environment…

    ‘Builders in the suburbs are ‘spoiling’ the buyers, Birdsong said, with features on newly constructed homes at the $500,000 price such as granite or quartz countertops, hardwood flooring throughout, high-end appliances and outdoor fireplaces. Three and even four-car garages have become a staple at the half-million mark in the suburbs, Birdsong added. The combination of a getting a new-build and extras like those make it difficult for resale homes to compete, even if they’re closer in’

    Seen this movie a few times. Builders pushing their own customers underwater month after month – check!

    1. Spoiling buyers? I’ll agree that “high end” appliances and outdoor fireplaces are extravagances. But durable, timeless flooring and quality countertops seem pretty darn reasonable if you are spending $500,000. Would laminate and Formica be “not spoiling”? What is the opposite of spoiling–gouging?

      1. pretty darn reasonable if you are spending $500,000
        along with a design extremely resistant to fire along with installed fire suppression systems. Those items never seem to be included, probably because they’re don’t show the superiority of the would-be owner.

      1. I have it on good authority if the young people just stopped drinking Starbucks they could all afford a half a million dollar mortgage no problem.

      2. In 2014 I said on this blog, “I have seen the bubble and it’s Prosper Texas.” Billboard all over offering zero down on 700-900k shacks on tiny lots. Thing is, it’s way out there. Back in the 80’s when I was studying RE near Big D, they told us the greatest money is made turning pastures into development. And that’s what they are doing north Of Dallas. Just past Prosper on the way to Oklahoma? Cows. And past those cows? More cows.

        1. Cows? & more cows … Sounds like a good billboard oppoortunity for Chic.Fil.A, eat more “beyond chicken$!”

          Hurry, get in on the $tock whilst it’$ cheap!

        2. “Back in the 80’s when I was studying RE near Big D, they told us the greatest money is made turning pastures into development.”

          Yep. Been the same around here since I was born. It goes like this: Developer buys a chunk of acreage out of town, anywhere from 20 acres up to several hundred. Usually they’re zoned R10 where you’re only allowed a single house for every 10 acres. Then, the developer miraculously buys off a zoning change to where he can all of a sudden slam 8 houses per acre onto the dirt. Boom, he’s just made a mint.

  3. Coronavirus is cratering oil prices.

    I want cheap gas to take some road trips before the pigmen raise prices again.

    1. “Coronavirus is cratering oil prices.”

      Impossible!

      We are going to have $5 a gallon rationed gas with lines like the 1970s and a war with Iran.

      I was told this by a poster on this blog at the beginning of this month.

      1. “We are going to have $5 a gallon rationed gas with lines like the 1970s and a war with Iran.”

        Thee $audi’$ & Putin would bee: $ad

        There will bee NO pi$$ing off America’$ be$t friend$!

  4. Dumb question of the day: Will the wealthy all-cash Chinese investors scale back their housing investment activities on the U.S. West Coast due to the coronavirus outbreak?

    1. Not a dumb question. Two things are likely to happen and they tend to offset. Chinese will have less money to buy US property. However things like the coranavirus and the economic slowdown encourage Chinese to leave the country with as much wealth as they can sneak out of the country and buy homes in the US. Which trend will be predominant? I do not know.

      1. Good point about capital flight. I wonder how California homesellers will receive investors who number among the 5 million Wuhan citizens who got out ahead of the lockdown?

          3. hold their breath

            Aren’t these things done electronically by now? I’ve managed to do quite a bit using DocuSign.

    2. “….Dumb question of the day: Will the wealthy all-cash Chinese investors scale back their housing investment activities…”

      Not dumb question at all. Happened to be thinking the same thing coming into the office today listening to news reports about the widening Corona virus pandemic.

      Here is what I have come up with thus far.

      One argument is that the Chinese gov’t will stop movement of money just like they are currently stopping movement of people either internally in China or cross borders.

      Another argument is that *existing* Chinese USA R/E owners will *sell* because cash is need to prop up failing Chinese businesses due to trade/travel restrictions.

      If the *existing* Chinese owners start selling, that could trigger a sell panic in some local markets. (At least here in Irvine in which Chinese own a large % of residential R/E).

      HBB readers have long predicted that some sort of ‘Black Swan’ event could unwind this overpriced R/E market faster than a ball of dried out rubber-bands.

      Maybe this is it. Who knows? One thing for sure, fasten your seat belts, ’cause the next couple of weeks could become very interesting.

    3. Well, iffin’ they could, they’d actually move in. Then go $hopping @ lumber.liquidater$ & K-Mart

    4. Will the wealthy all-cash Chinese investors scale back their housing investment activities on the U.S. West Coast

      I thought they already did.

      2. Ye$, “Thee.Oh, $ee! ” is con$idered We$t.Coa$t!

        $orry, this is WEEK old new$!

        BUSINE$$ HOU$ING
        $outhern California home price$ set$ record high as Orange County hit$ $732,750
        19,337 residences — new and existing — sold in December in six SoCal counties.

        JONATHAN LANSNER | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
        PUBLISHED: January 22, 2020

        Cheaper mortgage rates, a shrinking supply of existing homes to choose from, plus a resilient economy got house hunters in a buying mood as 2019 ended. Here are 13 local housing trends within the report …

      3. I guess asymptomatic transmission was not ruled out as a possible problem.

        Oxide, any news on this?

        2. There has been at least one superspreader. Evidently one patient went to a hospital for neurosurgery and infected 14 health care workers there and developed a fever only later. Maybe that’s the origin of the comment that the virus can be spread before symptoms appear.

          https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7921509/Coronavirus-SUPER-SPREADER-China-infected-14-health-care-workers.html

          And wasn’t there a patient in Germany that infected four people? Another superspreader?

          1. sort of like AIDS 1 guy infected i think 11 of the 12 people sharing a summer rental on fire island 1 never got it.

        3. This is why the current coronavirus outbreak may prove much more problematic and economically disruptive than SARS was to contain.

          ‘There’s no doubt’: Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
          By Elizabeth Cohen and John Bonifield, CNN
          Updated 12:40 PM ET, Fri January 31, 2020

          (CNN) The nation’s top infectious disease doctor says a new study published Thursday night shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in.

          German researchers found that the virus was transmitted by people without symptoms in five instances in one cluster of people: from a parent to a daughter; from that daughter to two colleagues; and from one of those colleagues to two other coworkers.

          “There’s no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “This study lays the question to rest.”
          …

          2. The first, an otherwise healthy 33-year-old, developed a fever of 102.4 degrees, and felt ill for a few days. “He stayed in bed for the weekend, but by Monday he felt fine,” Rothe said. The second one had a “mildly sore throat and a minimal cough,” Rothe said. “He was clinically unspectacular.”

            How strange. This virus is easier to catch than a common cold, but it ranges from a sore throat all the way to being lethal?

          3. How strange. This virus is easier to catch than a common cold, but it ranges from a sore throat all the way to being lethal? Nothing strange to that at all. N. meningitidis sometimes acts just like that. Some human carriers / transmitters may have no symptoms at all, at any time. One of the few bacterial diseases that can take a healthy young adult & turn him/her into dead meat in 24 hours.

          5. That’s how cholera can spread so explosively.

            What is the history of cholera?

            Cholera has likely been affecting humans for many centuries. Reports of cholera-like disease have been found in India as early as 1000 AD. Cholera is a term derived from Greek khole (illness from bile) and later in the 14th century to colere (French) and choler (English). In the 17th century, cholera was a term used to describe a severe gastrointestinal disorder involving diarrhea and vomiting. There were many outbreaks of cholera, and by the 16th century, some were being noted in historical writings. England had several in the 19th century, the most notable being in 1854, when Dr. John Snow did a classic study in London that showed a main source of the disease (resulting in about 500 deaths in 10 days) came from at least one of the major water sources for London residents termed the “Broad Street pump.” The pump handle was removed, and the cholera deaths slowed and stopped. The pump is still present as a landmark in London. Although Dr. Snow did not discover the cause of cholera, he did show how the disease could be spread and how to stop a local outbreak. This was the beginning of modern epidemiologic studies. The last reference shows the map Dr. Snow used to identify the pump site.
            …

          7. From Shine article which should be posting soon, more information which suggests while this virus is not to taken lightly it is no Ebola in terms of lethality:

            So far, Shanghai has reported altogether 169 infections, aged between 7 and 88, and cleared 342 suspected cases, said the commission.
            Among those infected, only two have no known close contact with people from Hubei. Seventy-three are from outside of Shanghai, including 51 from Wuhan, 20 from other cities in Hubei, and one each from Anhui and Heilongjiang provinces.
            Currently, 149 patients are stable, three are considered in a serious condition and six are critical. Ten patients have been discharged from hospital upon recovery and there has been one fatality. Another 166 suspected cases are undergoing tests.

          8. “Although Dr. Snow did not discover the cause of cholera, he did show how the disease could be spread and how to stop a local outbreak.”

            Years ago there was a bright young reporter named Linda Vester who covered a massive cholera outbreak at a refugee camp in Goma, Zaire. It was an incredible humanitarian disaster that left indelible emotional scars on even the hardened doctors.

  5. At least mortgage rates are headed lower.

    30-year Treasury yield plumbs key 2% support level
    By Sunny Oh
    Published: Jan 31, 2020 11:26 a.m. ET

    Long-term Treasury yields beat a steady retreat on Thursday, pushing the rate for the 30-year Treasury bond to its lowest level since early September. The 30-year Treasury yield (TMUBMUSD30Y, -2.24%) fell 2.6 basis points to 2%, a key technical support level that if breached could presage further yield declines. The 10-year note yield (TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.62%) fell 2.8 basis points to 1.527%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yield.
    …

    1. How much lower can yields drop before we switch to counting kernels of rice as currency à la James Clavell’s novel King Rat?

  7. So the MSM is saying that the stock correction is all due to coranavirus. How about the role that the increasing chance of big Bernie win in Iowa is having? Even on the national level Bernie is ascending. Read that Mayor Pete is being leaped frogged by Bloomberg. Much more a case of Pete crashing than Bloomberg rising. Cannot wait to when the PTB get Obama to trash Bernie. Hope that leads the left to understand how much they have been played by the globalists.

    1. I don’t think Wall Street gives Bernie a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. Apparently they are panicky about the coronavirus outbreak, and forgetting that Uncle Fed is there to help.

      1. ‘Panic-selling’ reached on the stock market as coronavirus sparks Friday tumble
        By Mark DeCambre
        Published: Jan 31, 2020 11:44 a.m. ET

        Selling on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday midday touched levels considered panic-like by technical traders, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -1.53%) slumped more than 450 points, sliding beneath a short-term moving average. The Arms index on the NYSE hit around 2.2 Friday midday. The index is a volume-weighted breadth measure, that tends to rise when the broader market falls, as the intensity of the selling in declining stocks is usually greater than the intensity of buying in rising stocks. Levels above 2.000 are considered panic-like activity.
        …

          1. Oh geez, come on … they will knot / cannot exceed their credit.limit$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$, right?

          1. The Financial Times
            Coronavirus
            Coronavirus latest: S&P 500 turns negative for 2020 on economic fears

      2. To be clear, I am not talking about Bernie winning the general election, I am talking about being nominated. As I said before if it is Bernie vs Trump the globalists have already lost.

          1. I’m sure the Davos crowd are already making plans for 2024

            Yes, and how to punish Britain now.

        2. ” …if it is Bernie vs Trump the globalists have already lost. ”

          lo$ers, kinda like Coal & Boeing right aq?

        3. If the Democrats coronated Hillary over Bernie in a one-off in 2016, doesn’t it seem likely they will settle on one of the fifty-or-so more establishment Democrat candidates this time?

          1. I sent him another $25 donation. Worth every penny to feel like I contributed to the monkey wrenching of the corrupt crony-capitalist DNC establishment.

        2. Just announced: “Emergencie$.meeting$!”

          OPEC+ moving up $cheduled March oil.gu$hers gang gathering! : $ad

          Too bad fake.journalist Khashoggi is unable to give a live.report. $ad

    2. It’s always interesting how power plays backfire. I predict that the Globalist will push Bloomberg with a women VP in the final analysis

      1. “Globalist will push Bloomberg with a women VP in the final analysis”

        Don’t you want $helter.$hack.hou$ing.price$ to $hrink $uddenly?

        (After Nov 3rd 2020, no matter$ who is fake.elected, the FederalRe$erve$aviour$ will have their credit limit$ $everely dimimmi$hed!) … Just.you.wait.&.$ee!

      2. All of the male Dem candidates will push a woman — preferably a POC — for VP. Warren might pick up Cory Booker.

      3. I predict that the Globalist will push Bloomberg with a women VP in the final analysis

        Hillary keeps sending up trial balloons to see if anybody wants her to step in. Each time the silence is deafening.

        2. I hoping that one day one of her lead balloons will land on her like the house in the Wizard of Oz.

  9. “In June 2017, Citibank filed for foreclosure on the 1.04-acre property which was being offered for sale for over $2 million at the time, according to court and property records.” “Nearly two years later, CitiMortgage took over the property following a court-ordered sale.”

    That would be June 2019.

    “The asking price was lowered to below $1 million in November 2019, according to its listing. The sale closed Tuesday for $1.1 million.”

    Some rich person got to buy at market price, seven months after the foreclosure auction.

    How come the banks kept, and were allowed to keep, hundreds of thousands of modest homes off the market for years after the last bubble burst, to keep average people from buying at a non-inflated price?

    1. Good question with many hypothetical answers. One i believe to to be worth mentioning is the amount of taxes collected on todays median priced home. Highly doubt the tax assessors offices are having any current budget issues

    2. How come the banks kept, and were allowed to keep, hundreds of

      Easy. One word, Amerikka, the fraud capital in the universe.

      1. “Amerika’$ Greed” … It’$ like “Thee Apprentice”, a $treamable digital realitie$ $how. $ad

      2. The real answer is FASB 57 (I don’t recall the exact rule). IIUC, nobody can force anyone to sell an asset unless the gov invokes eminent domain. The real problem is that FASB allows them to continue to value the asset at the previous sale price. If they had to decrease the value of the asset on their books to similar comps, thus showing a loss, they would have greater incentive to sell instead of HODL.

    3. “How come the banks kept, and were allowed to keep, hundreds of thousands of modest homes off the market for years after the last bubble burst, to keep average people from buying at a non-inflated price?“

      – See definitions for “crony capitalism” and “foaming the runway.”

    4. It’s time to get rates up into the market level range of 12-15% and get this economy going again….

      Right?

      1. $peaking of thee $uper.Bowl$ … Elon will bee $haking.in.his.boot$ when he see’s the ad for this up.yer.no$e.with.a.GM.ho$e:

        The Hummer is coming back as a 1,000-horsepower electric truck
        Ahead of a Super Bowl ad

        By Sean O’Kane on January 30, 2020

        General Motors has confirmed it’s resurrecting the Hummer nameplate for a new all-electric truck that will have 1,000 horsepower on offer and go from 0 to 60 miles per hour in three seconds, according to new teaser images and videos released today. The new electric Hummer truck will break cover during a Super Bowl ad this coming Sunday, and will be treated to a full reveal on May 20th. It’s due out in late 2021.

        1. Sorry, forgot the link: (made.in.America = no tariff$!)

          https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/1/30/21115040/gm-hummer-ev-truck-gmc-horsepower

          ” While there are plenty of electric SUVs already on the road, the electric truck market is still wide open. That won’t be the case for long. Ford is working on an all-electric F-150 that it promises will be just as capable a truck as people have come to expect from its most popular nameplate, and Tesla’s Cybertruck will serve as an option for more contrarian customers. A number of startups are entering the space, too. Most notably, Michigan’s Rivian plans to release its luxury electric pickup truck later this year. Others, like Bollinger, Karma, and Lordstown Motors, are all trying to be among the first to sell electric pickup trucks as well. “

  11. It’$ a good thing dtRumpsis got Thee “evil” & underfunded gubermint’$ CDC $pokesperson$ out there on the podium 15 mins before Thee Stawk.Market$ clo$ing!

    FAKE.Vi$us! & Chine$e HOAX!

    1. $tay focu$ed dear Professor, like x$1+,000,000,000,00.0$ U$A deficit’$, decoupling the China economy of x1,390,000,000.86+ human$ from the $lowing Globali$t “Ju$t.in.time” Trade $y$tem for a mere few week$… “Does.knot.matter!”

    2. I notice that but have assumed that it takes a long time and a note from God to get declared “recovered”. In the meantime lots of less severe cases are probably recovering at home and never making it into either statistic. But yes…if it turns out that it’s killing more than 5% of the people who show symptoms that would be a total disaster. For all of us I think.

      1. But the fact remains that 213 deaths out of 10,000 reported cases exceeds 2% mortality, and is a hard lower bound estimate which can only increase as the vast majority of unresolved cases either end in recovery or the alternative.

    3. Recovered is much more subjective than dead. All the credible reports have the mortality rates between 2 and 4 percent and it has been tracking lower. The amazing statistic is there have been no deaths outside of China at least that was the case this morning.

      1. Since there are virtually no cases outside of China, and they are generally among the latest, it is absolutely unamazing that no deaths have been reported outside China.

        1. “Since there are virtually no cases outside of China … ”

          Well, never.thee.less, eye would knot want to bee a visiting Chinese tourist walking around Mar.A.Lago eating chocolate cake & trying to repress a sneeze.

      2. “All the credible reports have the mortality rates between 2 and 4 percent and it has been tracking lower.”

        Roughly speaking, 10,000 cases are confirmed, with just over 200 (2%) recovered and 200 (2%) unrecovered. This leaves about 9600 (96%) of cases unresolved. If all of them recovered, the 2% mortality rate would be confirmed. If none recovered, the rate would turn out to be 98%. Neither of these extremes is a plausible outcome.

        So based on the available data, I buy the 2% lower bound, but the 4% upper bound seems wildly optimistic.

          1. AND I think the “confirmed” cases both good and bad will only be a fraction of the total number of infected people. But hopefully as it all becomes more clear the fatality numbers stay low-ish. I do believe that virtually everyone will get exposed over the course of this. I will be shocked if countries like the USA are able to contain it to tiny numbers.

          2. Unless there is some systematic difference between announced and unannounced cases, the reported data is informative regarding the overall situation.

          3. I think “announced” “confirmed” numbers will be heavily biased toward the more severe cases. Which gives me hope that the true fatality rate won’t be that high. On a pessimistic note, though, some reports from China are the people that died too fast or never got a bed in a hospital are just cremated and listed as pneumonia deaths. Which of course skews the numbers the other way.

          4. Latent carriers who never display symptoms but nonetheless can spread the disease will confound the contagion and mortality rate statistics.

            There also may be a motive to hide cases (e.g. underreport deaths) to avoid sparking a panic.

          5. “Latent carriers who never display symptoms but nonetheless can spread the disease will confound the contagion and mortality rate statistics.”

            +1 Especially if they’re attractive.

        2. Is it my imagination, or did the number of confirmed cases just spontaneously jump by another 1700 or so? That 1700 number is starting to seem as consistent as China’s miraculously, consistently high rate of economic growth.

    4. Buy moar stocks. Watch the Souper Bowl. And go buy a house the day after, lest you be caught in the wake of the annually promised Souper Bowl Bounce and loose alot of money because you didn’t listen to the REALTOR and buy.

    5. recovering…

      Actually, they used the word “cured”. The rest of the thousands infected may have recovered.

      1. Cured… Thank you for noticing. I was waiting for one of you to mention that. Cured, as if the almighty communist party hand was waived over the infected lying in hospital and all was well. Cured. You couldn’t make this shit up…

  13. It will be interesting to see what the Chinese Plunge Protection authorities will throw at their stock market reopening next Monday.

    1. Investors brace for vicious plunge in Chinese stocks when exchanges re-open
      By Sunny Oh
      Published: Jan 31, 2020 3:31 p.m. ET
      Chinese stock exchanges will reopen on Feb. 3

      The whirlwind selloff in global stock markets has left the epicenter of the coronavirus mostly unscathed as Chinese equity exchanges have stayed shuttered this week.

      But analysts expect Chinese equities to catch up with swooning stocks in Asia and the U.S. when their local bourses resume business on Feb. 3, as local traders return back to their desks from the Lunar New Year holiday. A plunge in Chinese equities could spur another vicious round of selling in global stocks amid worries that the global economic rebound expected this year may fall flat due to the viral outbreak.

      “Financial markets, in Asia in particular, have reacted negatively to news reports of the virus spreading in recent days,” wrote Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer for UBS Wealth Management. “Chinese equities may suffer further declines when they re-open after the Lunar New Year holiday.”
      …

  14. This will make it hard for real estate investors fleeing China to invest in US housing.

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus
    Coronavirus latest: US to bar entry to foreigners recently in China
    …

  15. Really? Not amazing? if you have over a hundred people and you are trying to assert that the mortality rate approaches 50 percent it is pretty Damm amazing. Now if it is 2 percent or less as I believe than yes that is far less amazing. However my point is this has been going on for weeks and it is amazing both how few cases there are outside of China and no deaths. My suspicion is the Chinese tried to cover this up for far longer than they are admitting.

    1. I don’t claim to know what the exact mortality rate is, but I have some idea about what it isn’t, which excludes both 2% and 50% as unlikely extremes. (See post above for the logic…)

      1. Is that a known unknown? … or … A unknown known?

        Any one have Rummy’s LinkedIn contact info?

    2. My suspicion is the Chinese tried to cover this up for far longer than they are admitting.

      They are saying for sure it goes back at least to November…back when the numbers were similar to the American numbers now.

      1. Something I found out yesterday really is unfair.

        Trump has to pay the bulk of his Attorney fees in Defense against Mulner investigation or the Impeachment attacks.

        At the same time the FBI investigation and the Impeachment by House is paid for by taxpayers.

        So these nonstop bogus investigations by Dems and FBI are paid for by us.

        I’m adding up at least 80million or more by now on the House/FBI side and maybe 30 million on Trump side.

        While it is true that Trump can take donations regarding his Defense, the fact remains that these investigations are a weapon against a setting President .

        So if you have a House and FBI engaging in meritless attacks like this, the Taxpayers pay for it. Just the abuse of this is .mind-blowing.

        Also there is no penalty to a House that brings a meritless case. In regular law they would have to pay for both sides if they lost.

        The Dems might have to pay political price, but they just move on to the next attack.

        I have seen three Impeachments in my lifetime so far. I have never seen this level of harassment of a Sitting President paid for by the taxpayers. It really is a serious abuse of public funds.

        But, my greater point is for all those that want bigger Government , think twice about what that entails.

        1. a weapon against a setting President .

          Seeing as how we actually elected the guy, it’s a weapon against us.

    1. A comment from ZeroHedge article “SARS Versus Wuhan: The Difference Between Then & Now”: “Gonna guess the difference between SARS and Wuhan is better splicing techniques.”

      1. Might have to buy some “$pecial $tawk$ …😷

        (Hwy scours TD Ameritrade search for CRI$Pr $tocks),

        Tyvek = Dupont?

    2. Eye hope this information does knot get “faux.new$.di$torted” & goes viral on Fake.$ocial.Media di$tribution pathway$!

      Mark $Uckerberg: “We don’t need to bee liked, we just have to be under$tood”

      No worrie$, Marky has yer $ocial profile back$! Hone$t!

    3. Let’s try this for a theory a number of months ago far longer than China is admitted an engineered virus escaped from the lab 20 miles from Wuhan. China did not want any one to find out so it tried low profile containment strategies. Despite this the infection spread to ten of thousands of Chinese who were impacted by the virus and a handful actually made it out of the country. Then China admitted hundreds of infections and has been raising the number quickly to mimic a rapidly increasing number so it can explain tens of thousands of cases without admitting it kept it from the world so long and why. The theory is consistent with both the low number of cases outside of China with no sign of exponential growth and no deaths but thousands of deaths in China. There just are far more people infected there than the government is admitting. The virus is neither extraordinarily deadly nor extraordinarily infectious. As I said a few days ago sum ting Wong in China for it to be so hard hit and the world to be so lightly hit right now.

      1. ” … far longer than China is admitted an engineered virus escaped from the lab 20 miles from Wuhan. China did not want any one to find out so it tried low profile containment strategies”

        “Oh, there you go again …” Ronald Raygun

        China: “Bad China! Bad!”
        U$A: “What, we didn’t do anything!”

        HEALTH
        Blood & Fog: The Military’s Germ Warfare Tests in San Francisco

        Body Horrors |By Rebecca Kreston|June 28, 2015

        It was estimated that the city’s 800,000 residents had each received a heavy dose of Serratia, inhaling millions of bacteria throughout the testing period. In its report, the military further concluded “that Serratia marcescens is so rarely a cause of illness, and the illness resulting is predominantly so trivial, that its use as a simulant should be continued, even over populated areas”

        However, Serratia can cause illness and the repercussions of this experiment extended far beyond a slightly foggier week for San Franciscans. A week after the spraying, eleven patients were admitted to the now defunct Stanford University Hospital in San Francisco with severe urinary tract infections, resistant to the limited antibiotics available in that era. One gentlemen, recovering from prostate surgery, developed complications of heart infection as Serratia colonized his heart valves. His would be the only death during the aftermath of the experiment.

        Stanford University Hospital doctors culturing the patients’ urine on petri dishes found an unusual and unexpected discovery: microbes blushing with a cherry red pigment . Infection with Serratia was so rare that the outbreak was extensively investigated by the University to identify the origins of this scarlet letter bug. Though the source of this unusual organism could not be located despite an exhaustive epidemiological search, Stanford published a report on the outbreak, noting that “the isolation of a red pigment-producing [bacterium] from the urine of human beings was of interest, at first, as a curious clinical observation. Later, the repeated occurrence of urinary-tract infection by this organism, with bacteremia in two patients and death in one, indicated the potential clinical importance of this group of bacteria” . It was the first recorded outbreak of Serratia in the history of microbiology.

        This would not be the last time that such “simulation” experiments would be carried out on American citizens. From 1950 to 1966, the military performed open-air testing of potential terrorist weapons at least 239 times in at least eight American cities, including New York City, Key West, and Panama City, FL, exposing still unknown numbers of Americans to Serratia and other microbial organisms (4). In the majority of those cases, exposure to the microbe was nothing more catastrophic than exposure to other microbes in a dust cloud. For a minority, including the elderly, young children, and immunocompromised, such exposure posed serious health risks.

        Following President Nixon’s 1969 order unequivocally ending both offensive germ warfare research activity and the stockpile of biological agents, the military ceased all simulation tests on the American public. But it is this one event, the Serratia spray of San Francisco, that stands out among the many covert experimentations on uninformed American citizens committed by the US government, largely due to the scale and scope of the operation as well as the diligence of Stanford Hospital in identifying the homegrown outbreak and publishing their findings. It is one of the largest offenses of the Nuremberg Code since its inception, a deplorable betrayal of the of public health and safety, of informed consent and civil liberties.

        The Nuremberg Code was drafted in 1947 following the appalling revelations of human experimentation committed in Nazi concentration camps. The overarching goal of the Code was to establish a set of rules for the ethical conduct of research using human subjects, guaranteeing that the rights and welfare of such participants would be protected. Two important principles guide and define this Code: the concept of voluntary, informed consent and that no experiment shall be conducted in which “there is an a priori reason to believe that death or disabling injury will occur.”

        Just four short years later, the government of the United States would violate the Code as it undertook one of the largest human experiments in history, spraying the city of San Francisco with a microbe, Serratia marcescens, in a simulated germ warfare attack.

        The genus Serratia are a group of soil and water-dwelling microbes with one very neat party trick: the manufacture of a red pigment known as “prodigiosin,” derived from the Latin prodigiosus for its marvelous and seemingly supernatural coloring; this color ranges from a lurid vermillion to a washed-out pink depending upon the microbe’s age. This unique property has been regularly exploited in microbiology as a biological marker, tracking metabolic behavior and transmission of bacteria in various environments. For this reason, the microbe is an ideal tool for such work, a showy microbe that naturally flies a very noticeable red flag.

        The origins of Serratia are, despite the microbe’s technical laboratory applications, often quite prosaic. The bacteria thrives in wet environments and may be seen forming pink streaks on the insides of shower curtains and along toilet bowls in the homes (surely not mine or yours) of the sanitationally challenged

        1. Ironic post since the left sees Putin under every bed but refuses to acknowledge that China is the real threat to the US.
          Trump is still standing and Biden is collapsing, life is good. KAGA.

      1. This is part of the globalist tech companies’ broader purge of any independent media outlet that fails to comply with The Narrative. It’s also another example of the tech companies kow-towing before the Chinese so as not to offend the CCP tyrants.

        2. I’m well aware of this. Twitter is a very manipulated platform. I don’t have an account but I’ve followed a handful of others over the last 1.5 years.

  17. Eye heard dtRumpsis (just yesterday) encouraged farmers to hurry up a go buy big tractor$ & purcha$e acre$ & acre$ of cheap land.dirt! Pronto!

    POLICY
    China Viru$ Raise$ Question$ About Its Trade Deal With U.$.

    by Bloomberg |Jan 30, 2020

    As the novel coronavirus spreads, attention is focusing on Article 7.6 of the agreement, which states the U.S. and China will consult:

    “in the event that a natural disa$ter or other unfore$eeable event” delay$ either nation from complying with the agreement$.

    In the first year of the deal, which takes effect in mid-February, China committed to buy an extra $76.7 billion worth of American goods beyond what it purchased in 2017, and an additional $123.3 billion in the second year.

    “It obviously is going to have some ramifications economy-wide, which we hope will not inhibit the purchase goal that we have for this year,” U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said Wednesday. “We’ll have to look ahead and see. But the honest answer is we just don’t know yet. But we’re hoping for a very quick conclusion.”

    As the economic dislocation from coronavirus becomes clearer, economists are ratcheting up their estimates of the blow to economic growth. Nomura International Ltd. says the drag could exceed that seen during the SARS outbreak of 2003.

    1. Cheers!!!

      (Last knight was my “4th night”🎾 🎉🍷🍷🍷… V8 & pomegranate Gatorade ’till mid.knight)

  19. The Financial Times
    Coronavirus latest: More deaths reported in Hubei province
    As the outbreak worsens, the US bars entry to foreign nationals who have recently been in China. Live updates on how countries around the world are responding
    Myles McCormick, Sarah Provan, Philip Georgiadis, Adam Samson 57 minutes ago
    Peter Wells 57 minutes ago
    Hubei reports 45 new deaths from coronavirus

    A further 45 people have died from, and more than 1,300 new patients have been infected by, coronavirus in the Chinese province at the centre of the disease outbreak, according to the local health commission.

    The province of Hubei reported 45 new coronavirus deaths by the end of January 31, taking the total number of deaths there to 249, state media reported.
    …

    2. The US just confirmed its 7th coronavirus case: a man in the San Francisco Bay Area.
      Here’s what we know about all the US patients.
      Aria Bendix
      19 hours ago
      Wuhan coronavirus
      Medical staff with a patient in Wuhan, China. THE CENTRAL HOSPITAL OF WUHAN VIA WEIBO /via REUTERS
      — A deadly coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, has spread to 22 other countries.
      — The US has confirmed seven cases: two in Illinois, three in California, one in Arizona, and one in Washington.
      — The seventh case, a man in the San Francisco Bay Area county that’s home to Silicon Valley, was confirmed on Friday.
      — A case in Chicago reported Thursday was the first human-to-human transmission in the US.
      …

      1. Last night Tucker Carlson said it was either Bernie or someone who should be eating dinner at Golden Corral at 4:30

        1. I have been in areas where that was the best option and other places where you are glad to find a Family Dollar. The same places are where you find the most unspoiled nature. Really like Tucker but even conservatives can be guilty of subtle elitism.

          1. Tucker Carlson was implying that Joe Biden should be eating dinner at the early bird special with the other retirees.

          2. “Tucker Carlson was implying that Joe Biden should be eating dinner at the early bird special with the other retirees.”

            Certainly I get that, however it is a subtle jab at older blue collar Americans and the life they live even if he was not thinking in those terms and I do not think he was. But after the blatant CNN attack on Trump voters, people on the right should be careful about giving them cover for their elitism.

  23. But the co-op apartment at 730 Park Avenue was, nonetheless, a flop with buyers.

    According from a friend who lived at 7XX Park avenue in the 1990’s, Co-OP boards can be brutal. I wonder if anyone offered $6+ or more and the board just turned down the potential buyer.

    Keep in mind the board can turn down anyone they want to. If the board does not like you they can prevent you from selling your co-op.

    Of course, it could have been the apartment and the price. But one other thought is the Condo board.

    1. If the board does not like you they can prevent you from selling your co-op. This makes buying into a co-op sound like a financial suicide pact.

    1. Not to worry! Stocks are headed higher and rates lower, just as they always do. Chillax, and buy the dip.

      An analysis of the market sell-off: What’s likely causing it and how worried you should be
      Published Sat, Feb 1 20208:09 AM EST
      Michael Santoli
      Key Points
      — The S&P 500 has dropped 3% from its record high. Economically cyclical groups have been purged. Bonds are leading stock returns one month into the year.
      — Something was bound to come along and prompt a pullback. As it happened, the viral outbreak arrived to do the job.
      — Given that a perfectly routine decline following a strong multi-month rally could amount to 2% to 5%, a further drop of 2% to 3% would not compromise the broader uptrend.
      — Bond markets pricing in a high likelihood of another Fed rate cut around mid-year.
      …

      1. Honestly, I cannot disagree with that article. In fact, I think a ten percent correction would be perfectly normal as I said above. What set up the crash in 2008 was the absence of such corrections despite plenty of excuses for such corrections.

        1. I can’t disagree with it either, although I submit that it is a reflection of the central bank fueled mania that seems destined to continue raging until they run out of fuel.

          I also expect the coronavirus outbreak to continue turning out “worse than expected” for a while, given the recent confirmation that it can be spread by latent carriers. But don’t take my warning on this too seriously, as I am a professed bear.

          Got MOMO?

          1. Opinion: How the coronavirus scare has driven dangerous arrogance and greed in the stock market
            By Nigam Arora
            Published: Jan 30, 2020 11:07 a.m. ET
            A slight pullback in the stock market, following a huge rally, may not be a buying opportunity
            Bloomberg
            Pedestrians walk on a road near the Bund, one of the Shanghai’s major tourist attractions, ion Jan. 20 2020.

            It is no secret that the stock market is driven by greed and fear. Normally I measure levels of greed and fear in the market using proven algorithms. At extremes, greed is a sell signal and fear is a buy signal for stocks.

            The reaction to the coronavirus shows that there is an unprecedented amount of arrogance among the momo (momentum) crowd and the people who influence them. The stock market these days is controlled by the momo crowd. This combination of greed and arrogance may prove to be dangerous for investors. Let’s examine the danger with the help of two charts.
            …

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