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Only A Fool Trips On Something That Is Behind Them

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Florida condo owners are stuck in a rut as prices drop and mounting insurance rates and condo fees are scaring away buyers. It’s led to more condos sitting on the market for longer than single-family homes according to realtors in the Bay Area. ‘What you’re seeing here is flood insurance rates have impacted not only single-family homes, but they’ve really impacted a lot of condominiums, especially if they’re on the water. And as these insurance policies rise, HOA payments have gone really high,’ said Mark Middleton from Silver Trident Realty. ‘You can clearly see that condos are staying on the market longer. And some of those prices are significantly lower price than they were a year ago.'”

“Blame the rich, said Mariya Letdin, a business professor at Florida State University. Homebuyers with deep pockets are driving the South Florida residential market, buying pricey homes and pushing median sales prices to historic highs. ‘Activity is at the higher end of the market,’ Letdin said. ‘It’s a tale of two cities within one city. The higher market is insulated from what’s going on. In the rest of the market, we’ll see decreases in prices, because interest rates are holding steady and people can’t afford to stretch their budget.’ Some good news for buyers? They have more options on the table with rising inventory. Miami-Dade has 4.4 months supply of houses and 7.8 months of condos; Broward has 3.8 months supply of houses and 6.8 months of houses.”

“The increase in area home sales seems to be in contrast to rest of the state, at least during the early part of the year, where home sales continued to decline statewide, according to the Alabama Association of Realtors. Home prices were cheaper, on average, in the Huntsville and Decatur markets than they were a year ago. In Athens, it almost stayed flat. ‘New listings are up 29.8%, and I expect this number to increase into March and April as we’ve seen the largest number of signed listings in January and February that we’ve seen in the last two years,’ said Realtor Matt Curtis. ‘The two figures that some may see as a negative are days on market being up and inventory being up are actually positives in my eyes,’ Redstone Family Realty’s Ben Wales said. ‘Those support a buyer friendly market and let’s face it, we don’t have much of a market without those buyers, right?'”

“Many believe the real estate market in North Idaho is going to pivot in 2024. A real estate pivot is a shift in market conditions including metrics such as prices or inventory. In this scenario, you too will need to remain stable, confident and calm. Fun fact. In 2019, 75% of North Idaho locals could afford to live here. Last year, that number plunged to 20%. Only a fool trips on something that is behind them. Three percent mortgages are behind us and I have only seen mortgage rates below 3% once in my lifetime and don’t believe I will live to see it again. I am willing to bet you won’t either. What caused rates to dip below 3%? Can you say C-O-V-I-D? Sure ya can. If you are waiting for 3% to return, you may be better off buying a lotto ticket. Your chances of success are about the same.”

“Austin was the place to be during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, four years since the start of the pandemic, the city is becoming a relative housing market wasteland, experts said—or, at the very least, declining in market value significantly. According to Apartment List, Austin’s rents declined by 7 percent over the last year, and home prices fell by 11 percent since 2022, the Freddie Mac House Price Index says. ‘The metro was attracting technology companies, both old and new, to have the appeal of the next Silicon Valley without those California real estate prices and population density,’ Alan Chang, the founder and president of Vested Title & Escrow, told Newsweek. ‘That only lasted a few months before real estate started to grow astronomically. I was seeing homes sell over more than twice the purchase price from 18 months prior.'”

“State Farm, California‘s largest insurer, announced that it will discontinue coverage for 72,000 homes and apartments starting this summer, a move likely to sharply inflate housing costs for affected residents in a state that’s reeling from a series of destructive recent wildfires. The announcement comes less than a year after State Farm announced it would not issue new policies in California, citing similar concerns. Karl Susman, an independent broker and industry expert based in Los Angeles, said those who will be dropped are almost certainly properties in and around wildland areas considered at greater risk of wildfires, where standard coverage has become nearly impossible to get. ‘You get rid of the worst risks,’ Susman said.”

“A luxury Toronto condo project that’s been sitting idle for at least two years is irking its Forest Hill neighbours, bringing into focus a problem experts say has been fuelling the city’s housing shortage: multi-residential building projects that start—then appear to stall. The site on Russell Hill Road used to be a single-family home, before it was demolished in 2017. Construction of a four-storey condo project started, then stalled. Frustrated neighbours say the concrete shell draped in blue and green building wrap has sat on a muddy construction site that’s seen little activity for at least two years. ‘It’s pretty awful,’ resident Carol Roup told CBC Toronto. ‘And I know a lot of other residents feel the same way … I’d like it finished, built and looking like a real house, or demolished.'”

“Ontario’s cottage real estate market has been decidedly hot and cold over the past four years. In 2022, we wrote about a couple who purchased a cottage in Sault Ste. Marie. during the pandemic. A realtor reported bare-bones places with no septic, no toilets, and more off-grid situations that used to sell for $119,000 or $129,000, were going for $250,000 during the bubble. Due northeast from Toronto, the Kawartha Lakes region is within a three-hour drive of the city centre. It includes the towns of Fenelon Falls and Burnt River. Buyers will want to pay attention to this region. It experienced the highest price drop out of all the Ontario regions for single-family waterfront properties, declining by 25 per cent to $733,300 in 2023. Peterborough County is an ideal cottage region for boating enthusiasts. Prices have fluctuated in the county, from a high of $1,023,800 in 2022 to $875,000 in 2023 for single-family waterfront properties.”

“British billionaire John Caudwell placed a big wager on London’s property boom in 2011 when he stumped up about £150 million ($191 million) for a car park in the exclusive Mayfair district to build some of the UK’s priciest homes. The 1 Mayfair project — with a gross development value of £2 billion and each of the 29 stately home-inspired apartments averaging about £70 million — is now nearing completion and is set to hit the market soon. But the timing couldn’t be more awkward. Real estate valuations in the city’s high-end postcodes have tumbled from their peak reached about 10 years ago. One of Caudwell’s local peers recently sold his Belgravia mansion at a loss of about 30%, as more signs of weakness in luxury London housing emerge.”

“Some recent deals struck at deep discounts already point to a slump. British billionaire Bobby Arora sold his London townhouse in November for £23.5 million, about 10 years after buying it for £34 million. A South African investor sold a luxury housing site in neighboring Kensington for about £80 million at the end of last year — a discount of roughly £30 million from the price paid in 2017. ‘These super prime properties are becoming a real bargain,’ Caudwell said. ‘The risk is that the margin we expect to make is not made because the world is in a depressive state.'”

“Residential property prices in Germany dropped 8.4% in 2023 from a year earlier, data on Friday showed, in a further grim sign for the real-estate sector in Europe’s largest economy. The fall was the biggest since Germany’s statistics office began keeping records in the year 2000, underscoring the nation’s biggest property crisis in decades. It was also the first annual decline since 2007. For years, the property sector in Germany and elsewhere in Europe boomed as interest rates were low and demand strong. But a sharp rise in rates and costs has put an end to the run, tipping developers into insolvency as bank financing dries up and deals freeze.”

“An independent building company that is part of a major national construction chain has collapsed. News.com.au can reveal that Victorian-based building company Station 293 Pty Ltd went into liquidation last Friday with money owed to ‘lots and lots of tradies.’ The construction firm traded under Cavalier Homes Geelong and as its namesake would suggest, it was a franchise business in the Cavalier Homes network. Cavalier Homes was established in 2001 and has 19 franchises all along the East Coast, spanning across four Australian states. The Geelong branch no longer appears on its website.”

“Australian property prices continue to climb at an impressive rate. AMP’s deputy chief economist, Diana Mousina, said it was an impressive result. ‘It’s a very good return if you’re thinking about other asset classes,’ she said. ‘At the same time, you don’t really realise that increase in prices unless you sell your home. Really, it’s Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane where the price of houses in particular, but I guess also units to some extent, just looks completely overvalued,’ Ms Mousina said. ‘It’s quite difficult to not be close to the CBD and work close to the CBD, which means that people are pressured into a few spots within 100 kilometres of the CBDs, and that’s what’s kept prices booming. At the same time, we’ve run very high levels of immigration now for 20 years — and that just adds to our problems in housing supply. So I don’t think it’s a Ponzi scheme. I think there are genuine reasons why property prices are overvalued.'”

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This Post Has 88 Comments

  2. ‘The metro was attracting technology companies, both old and new, to have the appeal of the next Silicon Valley without those California real estate prices and population density…That only lasted a few months before real estate started to grow astronomically. I was seeing homes sell over more than twice the purchase price from 18 months prior’

    So where were the appraisers Alan?

    1. Sure enough, my friend who moved to Austin in late 2021/early 2022 (along with her parents and brother) lost her job with the AI/ML healthcare startup and is meeting with a realtor this week about selling her house. She moved in June 2022.

    2. “So where were the appraisers Alan?”

      Great question!

      I’d like to know more about the lender’s due diligence prior to funding these mortgages.

  3. ‘Fun fact. In 2019, 75% of North Idaho locals could afford to live here. Last year, that number plunged to 20%. Only a fool trips on something that is behind them. Three percent mortgages are behind us and I have only seen mortgage rates below 3% once in my lifetime and don’t believe I will live to see it again. I am willing to bet you won’t either. What caused rates to dip below 3%? Can you say C-O-V-I-D? Sure ya can. If you are waiting for 3% to return, you may be better off buying a lotto ticket. Your chances of success are about the same’

    Those SUV payments aren’t going to make themselves!

    1. Minor respiratory illness didn’t destroy the economy, government destroyed the economy.

  4. And as these insurance policies rise, HOA payments have gone really high,’ said Mark Middleton from Silver Trident Realty. ‘You can clearly see that condos are staying on the market longer. And some of those prices are significantly lower price than they were a year ago.’”

    Florida is finished.

  6. Are lower interest rates right around the corner, like so many upbeat REIC spokespeople steadfastly insist?

    1. Last Updated:
      March 20, 2024 at 7:22 PM EDT
      Live Coverage Feed
      1 day ago
      Fed Officials Increase Forecasts for Level of Rates in 2025, 2026
      By Nicholas Jasinski

      “Higher for longer” remains the name of the game for interest rates in the U.S.

      Federal Reserve officials continue to expect three quarter-point interest-rate reductions this year. But they now predict higher rates in the coming years than they did three months ago.

      The median estimate in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, published on Wednesday afternoon, calls for a target range for the federal-funds rate of 4.5% to 4.75% at the end of 2024. That is unchanged from the last so-called dot plot, published in December.

      The median dots for 2025, 2026, and beyond moved higher, however. It is a sign that officials collectively expect the U.S. economy to be able to withstand more restrictive monetary policy without a drag on growth, and that inflationary pressures will be tougher to bring down.

      The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December. For the end of 2026, the median dot now shows a target range of 3% to 3.25%, versus 2.75% to 3% three months ago. And officials’ median longer-run estimate was for a target range of 2.5% to 2.75%, also a quarter of a percentage point higher than in December.

      That longer-run estimate is seen as officials’ collective estimate of the so-called neutral rate of interest, which neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/fed-fomc-meeting-rate-decision-powell-speech-today/card/fed-officials-increase-forecasts-for-level-of-rates-in-2025-2026

      1. Federal Reserve officials continue to expect three quarter-point interest-rate reductions this year.

        Yep, it’s an election year.

        But they now predict higher rates in the coming years than they did three months ago.

        Some relief for savers.

    2. Yahoo Finance
      Homebuyers adjusting to ‘new normal’ for mortgage rates: NAHB CEO
      Seana Smith and Brad Smith
      Tue, Mar 19, 2024, 8:31 AM PDT
      In this article:

      Ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, CEO and President of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Jim Tobin joins Yahoo Finance Live to share his insights on the outlook for the housing market.

      Tobin expresses optimism, describing 2024 as “this pivot year,” where he expects rates to come down and demand to start rebounding in the housing market. He believes “the economy will keep moving along at a nice pace,” with rates potentially declining in the second half of the year. While acknowledging concerns about shelter inflation, Tobin encourages “people to get used to the new normal” of mortgage rates, rather than hoping for a return to the 3-4% range.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/video/homebuyers-adjusting-normal-mortgage-rates-153100141.html

    3. Personal Finance
      Mortgage Interest Rates Today, March 22, 2024 | Rates Rose This Week, But Could Trend Lower in Coming Months
      Written by Molly Grace; edited by Richard Richtmyer
      Mar 22, 2024, 3:00 AM PDT
      Read in app

      Mortgage rates increased this week. But the latest news from the Federal Reserve suggests that we could see them start to tick down in the coming months.

      On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it will keep the federal funds rate steady as it waits for more data showing that inflation is nearing its 2% goal. The central bank also released the latest Summary of Economic Projections, which showed that Fed officials still expect to cut rates three times this year. This would likely lead to lower mortgage interest rates as well.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/best-mortgage-refinance-rates-today-friday-22-2024-3

    4. MoneyWatch: Managing Your Money
      Why you should get a home equity loan with interest rates paused
      By Matt Richardson
      Edited By Angelica Leicht
      March 21, 2024 / 12:21 PM EDT / CBS
      With interest rates paused, now could be an opportune time for homeowners to tap into their home equity.
      Getty Images

      Borrowers hoping for some quick relief were left disappointed this week after the Federal Reserve elected to keep interest rates paused. While the benchmark interest rate range will stay the same between 5.25% and 5.50% — a 23-year high — there were indications that rate cuts could come later this year and into 2025. Against this backdrop, borrowers should remain judicious about how they access credit and which credit forms they use.

      Homeowners, for example, have a great resource at their disposal: their home equity. Considering that the average homeowner has around $200,000 to utilize in today’s market, right now may be a great time to do so, even with elevated interest rates on pause. Below, we’ll break down three reasons why you should get a home equity loan now.
      …
      The bottom line

      With interest rates on pause — and cuts likely for later in the year — now is an opportune time for homeowners to tap into their home equity. By doing so now they can still get a relatively low rate and save money versus using alternatives with much higher rates. And if they use a HELOC over a home equity loan, owners can position themselves for further savings due to the HELOC’s variable rate nature. As is the case when considering home equity borrowing, however, owners should thoroughly consider all options as their home will be used as collateral. If they can’t adequately pay back what they borrow, then they could risk losing their home in the transaction.
      …
      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-you-should-get-a-home-equity-loan-with-interest-rates-paused/

      1. “Considering that the average homeowner has around $200,000 to utilize in today’s market, right now may be a great time to do so, even with elevated interest rates on pause.”

        Unstated assumptions:

        1. Real estate always goes up.

        2. That $200,000 in untapped equity can only increase

        3. Taking out a loan against your home equity doesn’t increase the risk that your mortgage may soon be underwater.

      2. ‘Why you should get a home equity loan…’

        These clowns never quit. Spend, SPEND, S P E N D ! !

    5. Central Banks
      Top U.S. asset manager Vanguard doesn’t believe the Fed will cut interest rates this year
      Published Thu, Mar 21 2024
      7:45 AM EDT
      Updated 6 hours ago
      Sam Meredith

      Key Points

      – Top U.S. asset manager Vanguard doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, defying the view from Fed officials that rates will be reduced three times in 2024.

      – Vanguard isn’t alone in predicting zero rate cuts this year.

      – Sycamore Tree Capital Partners’ Mark Okada told CNBC last week that there’s a “good chance” the U.S. central bank doesn’t cut in 2024.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/vanguard-doesnt-believe-the-fed-will-cut-interest-rates-this-year.html

  7. California’s Jobs Market Is in Trouble
    Published Mar 21, 2024 at 4:00 AM EDT
    Updated Mar 21, 2024 at 6:19 AM EDT
    By Giulia Carbonaro
    US News Reporter

    California’s jobs market has been struggling, despite the U.S. economy booming, with the state trailing behind the rest of the country for job growth and reporting a higher unemployment rate than the national average.
    …
    As of January 2024, the U.S. had about the same number of openings as the previous month, according to BLS—around 8.9 million—and the unemployment rate was 3.7 percent seasonally adjusted for the third month in a row. At the start of this year, California’s unemployment rate was much higher, at 5.2 percent.
    California job market

    John Blevins, a guest lecturer at Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, told Newsweek that there are several reasons why California’s job growth is trailing the rest of the country. Some have to do with the lingering effects of the pandemic shutdown, which severely affected small businesses.

    “Some have not fully recovered and some went out of business and have been lost,” Blevins said. “Higher business operation hurdles make it harder for small businesses to weather this storm more than other states.”

    Blevins also cited factors “including higher labor costs, regulatory requirements and employment rules that make it harder to do business in California.” While some firms might have moved out of the state to seek lower operational costs and reduced regulations, former employees who were happy living in California may have chosen to stay—leading to the higher unemployment rate.
    …
    https://www.newsweek.com/california-jobs-market-trouble-1880412

    1. Bay Area
      California’s unemployment rate rises to the highest level in the U.S.
      By Roland Li
      March 22, 2024
      The continued layoffs of tech industry workers contributed to California’s rising unemployment numbers.
      Jessica Christian/The Chronicle

      California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in February, the highest level among all U.S. states, as it lost 3,400 non-farm jobs during the month.

      California’s unemployment rate was up 0.1 percentage points from January as it surpassed Nevada, which previously had the nation’s highest unemployment rate. Nevada’s rate fell to 5.2%, from 5.3%, in the same time, according to data released Friday. The national unemployment rate was 3.9% in February, a two-year high.

      Underscoring a faltering job market, California’s job growth in January was revised downward to 25,600 jobs compared to an earlier estimate of 58,100 jobs, according to the California Employment Development Department.

      San Francisco’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 3.8% in February, from 4% in January, after seeing a jump at the start of the year, according to state data.

      Statewide, the construction sector saw the heaviest losses of 9,600 jobs, and trade, transportation and utilities lost 7,300 jobs in February. Private education and health services gained 15,400 jobs, the most of any sector.

      “Job losses occurred in nearly all of the major sectors, and would have been greater if not for the gains in health care,” said Michael Bernick, special counsel at law firm Duane Morris.
      Construction saw the heaviest loss of workers in California in February, according to the most recent unemployment numbers.

      Construction saw the heaviest loss of workers in California in February, according to the most recent unemployment numbers.

      Bernick, the former director of the state EDD, cited California’s high cost of living for fueling a shortage of entry-level workers, as well as layoffs in tech.

      “The tech sector, especially major firms, over-hired in the first post-pandemic year, and has been shedding jobs since,” he said. “The Bay Area is the new epicenter of artificial intelligence startups. But these start-ups so far are creating a small number of jobs.”

      Cisco, Instacart and Grammarly were among the Bay Area tech companies that slashed jobs in February.

      More severe pandemic business lockdowns compared to other states and higher regulations are also factors dampening the job market, Bernick said.

      The state’s unemployment rate is seasonally adjusted, while individual counties’ rates are not.

      The San Francisco metro division, which includes San Mateo County, lost 1,300 jobs in February. The tech-heavy information sector lost 800 jobs and retail trade was down by 700 jobs. Professional and business services gained 1,600 jobs, and private educational services gained 2,000 jobs.

      The San Francisco region has lost 16,700 jobs between February 2023 and February 2024, including 14,300 jobs in information amid heavy tech layoffs.

      Across the Bay Area, Contra Costa County’s unemployment was 5% in February; Alameda County was at 4.9%; Napa was at 4.5%; Sonoma at 4.4%; Santa Clara was at 4.3%; Marin was at 4%; and San Mateo was at 3.7%, the lowest level in the state.
      …
      https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/california-unemployment-rate-19363313.php

  8. Are all the recent new record highs on Wall Street a sure sign that stocks can only go up from here on out?

    1. The 1929 Stock Market Crash
      Harold Bierman, Jr., Cornell University
      Overview

      The 1929 stock market crash is conventionally said to have occurred on Thursday the 24th and Tuesday the 29th of October. These two dates have been dubbed “Black Thursday” and “Black Tuesday,” respectively. On September 3, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high of 381.2. At the end of the market day on Thursday, October 24, the market was at 299.5 — a 21 percent decline from the high. On this day the market fell 33 points — a drop of 9 percent — on trading that was approximately three times the normal daily volume for the first nine months of the year. By all accounts, there was a selling panic. By November 13, 1929, the market had fallen to 199. By the time the crash was completed in 1932, following an unprecedentedly large economic depression, stocks had lost nearly 90 percent of their value.
      …
      https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-1929-stock-market-crash/

      1. Would be great to see it happen again. Let all the fakeness of our economy fade away.

        1. Can you imagine the howling of debt donkeys and casino gamblers if risk assets like stocks, housing, and cryptocurrency all headed for the CR8R?

          1. The only thing worse than losing a significant amount of money on something is if it is borrowed money.

          2. “The only thing worse than losing a significant amount of money on something is if it is borrowed money.”

            Real businessmen lose other people’s money.

    2. Yahoo Finance
      Stock market today: Stocks climb to new records after Fed sticks to the plan on rates
      Josh Schafer and Karen Friar
      Updated Wed, Mar 20, 2024, 2:11 PM PDT
      In this article:

      US stock indexes hit record highs on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged and stuck to its projection of three rate cuts this year.

      The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.8%, finishing at 5,224.62, its first-ever close above 5,200. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped about 1% to close at a record of 39,512. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, rising more than 1% to close at a record level of 16,369.

      All three of the major averages rallied from small declines before the Fed decision.

      Along with its policy announcement, the Fed released updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its “dot plot,” which maps out policymakers’ expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future.

      Fed officials see the fed funds rate falling to 4.6% by the end of 2024. That suggests the Fed will cut rates by 0.75% this year. Notably, this falls in line with market pricing from investors entering Wednesday.

      Bonds were little changed on the news. Yields on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) were slightly lower at around 4.28% after rising over 20 basis points in the past two weeks.

      In sum, the market’s reaction to the Fed meeting furthered signs of broadening in the market rally, exemplified by the small cap benchmark index (^RUT) rallying nearly 2% and six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rallying more than 1%.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-stocks-climb-to-new-records-after-fed-sticks-to-the-plan-on-rates-194104364.html

    3. Stock valuations mirror the extremes of 1929 and the market is at risk of a steep crash, legendary investor John Hussman says
      Jennifer Sor
      Mar 22, 2024, 10:01 AM PDT

      – Stocks look like they’re in the most extreme bubble in history, investor John Hussman said.

      – The legendary investor thinks stocks look as overvalued as they were in 1929 and in 2021.

      – That means the market could be at risk for a steep correction, he said in a recent note.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-1929-prediction-sp500-outlook-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-3

  10. Ethics Council: “Restricting Freedoms” May Be Necessary To Fight Climate Change

    https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/german-ethics-council-restricting-freedoms-may-be-necessary-to-fight-climate-change/

    German government advisors say if exercise of freedom interferes with climate welfare of future generations, the authorities “may intervene with restrictions.”

    The government may be forced to limit the available choices for citizens in order to battle predicted ‘devastating consequences’ of climate change. That’s the message in an opinion titled “Climate Justice,” published on March 13th by the German Ethics Council.

    In the opinion, the Ethics Council—a board of expert advisors established by German law—recommends actions to be taken by corporations, individuals, and the government to ensure the effects of climate change do not unjustly burden “those who are not so well-off.”

    Primarily, the Ethics Council says, this should be done on a voluntary basis—through individual ”self-commitment as an expression of one’s individual freedom”—by, for example, “voluntarily abandoning certain vacation, consumption, or mobility practices.”

    However, the Council’s statement continues (emphasis added),

    On grounds of justice, it can be morally required to contribute to measures to tackle climate change. If one’s own exercise of freedom interferes in an unjust manner with the freedom and welfare of others or of future generations, for example through consumption that is harmful to the climate, the authorities may intervene with restrictions of freedom.

    In other words: If you cannot be shamed into behaving in a way deemed morally correct by the elite, the government may simply have to force you. Flugscham, from the original Swedish flygskam, meaning “flight shame”—guilt about flying experienced by environmentally conscious travelers—is now an established word in the German vocabulary.

    While the opinion states that the Ethics Council is opposed to suspending “democratic freedoms and processes” to reach the desired climate goals, the group says it largely falls to the government to provide the “supportive framework conditions” under which individuals can—as we say to the kids—make good choices.

    These framework conditions, the opinion says, should among other things include lowered speed limits, increased “electromobility,” and increased CO2 taxes. The Council suggests a personal emissions limit that cannot be exceeded, and even “the ban on particularly climate-damaging products or services”—or, as Apollo News puts it: “a regulation as to who can buy what and to what extent.”

    Defining climate change as a man-made (“due to, among other factors, the combustion of fossil fuels and the destruction of forests and moors since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution”) phenomenon, the organization also says Germany needs to take into account “the long history of colonialism and industrialisation” as well as “ongoing neo-colonial dependencies,” meaning a distinction must be made between growth in countries of the global South that are catching up on development, and further growth of consumption and resource use in industrialised countries, and appropriate compensatory payments must be negotiated.

    At a time when the former European industrial powerhouse barely has its nose above water, it’s questionable whether “compensatory payments” to the Global South is on the traffic light coalition’s radar, regardless of Ethics Council recommendations.

    1. Ethics Council: “Restricting Freedoms” May Be Necessary To Fight Climate Change

      Once that is cemented in place, then rapid depopulation will become necessary to “save the world”.

      2. “…voluntarily abandoning certain vacation, consumption, or mobility practices….”

        This is how it works: Invent a crisis, the use that ‘crisis’ to create restrictive rules to your own advantage.

        Of course, those making the rules, aren’t going to give up their private jets, limos or vacation villas anytime soon.

        These practices are already being put incrementally into place in Los Angeles under the guise of ‘road diets’ which forces individuals to use public transportation in lieu of driving personal autos. Just announced a few days ago, entire stretches of LA Wilshire Blvd are to be converted funded by a Calif state grant.

        1. Of course, those making the rules, aren’t going to give up their private jets, limos or vacation villas anytime soon.

          By definition, The People Who Matter are always exempt from the rules they create. And this will be accomplished via financial incentives. So things like meat, dairy, owning a car, travel, home climate control, etc. won’t be outright banned, but via regulation they will become utterly unaffordable for the masses. Sure, if you want to splurge $200 on a double cheeseburger you can, but you won’t. For the Davos crowd that is chump change and their lives will be unaffected.

          1. “…For the Davos crowd that is chump change and their lives will be unaffected….”

            And that plan appears to be working quite well.

            Only real surprise is how quickly…

          2. Only real surprise is how quickly…

            Indeed. I don’t even want to think what it will be like in 2030 if Brandon is “reelected”

  11. After 625 Days, The Longest Yield Curve Inversion In History

    https://talkmarkets.com/content/after-625-days-the-longest-yield-curve-inversion-in-history?post=437893

    Today is a historic day, as last night – DB’s Jim Reid reminds us – we quietly passed the longest continuous US 2s10s inversion in history. After the 2s10s first inverted at the end of March 2022, it has now been continuously inverted for 625 days since July 5th 2022. That exceeds the 624 day inversion from August 1978, which previously held the record.

    [A chart appears here …]

    As regular readers are aware, an inverted yield curve has been the best predictor of a US downturn of any variable through history: the yield curve has always inverted before all of the last 10 US recessions, with a lag that is usually 12-18 months, but some cycles – certainly this one – take longer…. much longer.

    [Another chart appears here …]

    In fact, the lack of a recession so far has prompted Red to ask – in his latest Chart of the Day note – if the inverted yield curve recession indicator has failed this cycle?

    “Possibly”, the DB strategist responds, “but in many ways the yield curve has already accurately predicted many of the drivers that would normally lead to a recession. However, these variables haven’t then created recessionary conditions as they normally would have done.” He explains:

    It led, as it always does, the very sharp deterioration in bank lending standards, and led the declines in bank credit and money supply that are almost unique to this cycle. It was also at the heart of why we had some of the largest bank failures on record with SVB, Signature Bank and First Republic collapsing. A significant part of their failure was a big carry trade that went wrong when the curve inverted.

    However, even with the above, a recession – according to the highly political “recession authority” known as the NBER – hasn’t materialised. This is perhaps because of the following.

    When lending standards were at their tightest, the borrowing needs of the economy were low relative to previous cycles.
    Excess savings have been unusually high in this cycle (and were revised higher with the GDP revisions last September), so consumers haven’t been as exposed to tight credit as they normally are.
    The Fed unveiled a huge series of measures to ensure the regional bank crisis didn’t naturally unravel as it would have done in a free market or perhaps in many previous cycles.
    Whilst the Fed’s tightening has been reducing demand, the supply-side of the economy has bounced back strongly from the pandemic disruption, which has further supported growth and made this cycle unique.
    So far so good, however, an inverted yield curve should ultimately be a significant headwind for an economy, as capitalism works best when there is a positive return for taking more risk with lending and investments further out the curve. As such, Reid notes, “the rational investor should be prepared to keep more of their money at the front end, or not lend long-term when the curve is inverted” as you are not giving up yield for being able to sleep at night.

    So thanks to a historic flood of fiscal stimulus and a daily orgy of new record debt as discussed earlier…

    [Chart …]

    … which means that the US is now running a 6.5% deficit with unemployment near “historical lows”, an unheard of event….

    [Chart …]

    … the economy has not succumbed to the inverted yield curve to date, but while it remains inverted the Fed is encouraging more defensive behavior at some point if sentiment changes. As such, the DB strategist concludes that “the quicker we get back to a normal sloping yield curve the safer the system is.”

    1. “Possibly”, the DB strategist responds, “but in many ways the yield curve has already accurately predicted many of the drivers that would normally lead to a recession. However, these variables haven’t then created recessionary conditions as they normally would have done.” He explains:

      Amazing what a $3T deficit can do. So it creates painful price inflation, So what? That only hurts the little people. We’ll just tell them to work a third job.

    2. The Ookland In N Out is closing at the end of this week. (In N Out has never had to close a store in it’s history.) A couple blocks away the Dennys looks like it has been closed for years from the tagging that covers it. A block from there sits a vacant Walmart Super Center. Down the street from that is a midsize office building that was featured on this blog as going into default because they can’t find tenants. At the end of that block is an entire street lined with vagrant RV’s. I could go on but you get the picture. This is all happening in the busy airport corridor. I’m not from around there but it kind of seems a bit recessionary, no? City officials are now reporting that over 14,000 stripped and abandoned cars are scattered around the city. Their abatement lots are all full and these cost over a million a year to lease. A Google review on the former Denny’s reports that the food was good but it was unnerving watching cars get stripped while you eat.

      Ookland is actually in the process of economically collapsing and we could easily make a list of other cities where this process is well underway too. Perhaps some day the masters of the universe will acknowledge what the rest of us already know. For many folks a recession sounds quaint at this point.

      1. “City officials are now reporting that over 14,000 stripped and abandoned cars are scattered around the city.”

        Is 14,000 alot?

    3. Apparently the yield curve can stay forever inverted without a recession.

      Or so the MSM financial writers suggest…

  12. “Jason Riley, the father of Laken Riley, spoke to the Georgia State Senate on Wednesday during an event honoring her memory.

    Jason Riley said that his daughter’s murder had left him “heartbroken.”

    “I stand before you, a heartbroken man,” he said. “Part of my purpose has been taken. God gave me a beautiful daughter to father, protect, provide for, and nurture.

    “A man with an evil heart stole her life,” he added, apparently referring to Ibarra. “He was in this country and in this state illegally. My vision for every senator in this chamber is that you protect citizens from this illegal invasion.”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/laken-rileys-heartbroken-father-issues-request-georgia-governor/

    Open borders is TREASON.

  13. Bunch of articles out today on population projections.I will try to summarize.
    Basically the previous projection was by mid century there would be 11 billion.
    Now they are changing their projection to a decline to 6 billion by end of Century.
    They also throw in Climate Change BS by saying that it’s not population itself that the problem but over consumption by certain populations.
    First, IMHO this is programing for their deprivation of humans agenda for the control of all resources and consumption. You will own nothing, eat bugs, enslaved in 15 minutes cities, etc.
    Now it’s over consumption that’s the culprit in Climate change, to Justify deprivation of consumption.
    The Great Reset 2030 UN, Sustainable Earth Agenda to force deprivation of resources on consumption.
    They are going to give you bugs, so what are you complaining about. IMHO, bugs are not a healthy mainstay diet for humans.
    They are going into Great Narrative fake news push of their agenda to enslave humanity under a control grid of deprivation tyranny.
    The roll out of their AI/Robot agenda, to replace 40 % of jobs in next 10 years, rendering masses being useless eaters. KLAUS Schwab saying “whoever controls technology controls the world.” And you think this technology is going to be used to enhance human existence, or rather a replacement, just like the US Border invasion is?
    The themes ongoing from these psychopaths is that humans should be eliminated, deprived of consumption, and they have a new Superior Intelligence with AI and Robots that will supercede humans.
    And humans will be hacked and merge with the machine because the Great Reset says so.

    1. Now they are changing their projection to a decline to 6 billion by end of Century.

      Given the collapsing birth rates around the globe, even in the third world, this is not surprising. The real question is whether the globalists will be patient enough to wait for this to happen or if they will engineer famines and other disasters to accelerate it.

  14. Also, as the Speaker at recent Davos meeting declared in summary was that disinformation and misinformation was their greatest threat. They also uttered that “restoring trust” was necessarily for their objectives.
    So, you see this enacting of laws in a number of Countries attacking free speech, hate speech, or anything that disputes the Great Narratives.
    Pretty hard to restore trust when you pulled off mass genocide and disability by poison fake vaccines globally. Compliance to vaccines is way under 10 % that shows a rejection of the “safe and effective” fraud.
    They actually expected that they would have people willingly taking 5 or 6 booster shots a year, of a EUA expiermental vaccine. THAT they could have this massive death and injury , cover it up, and people wouldn’t notice. Oh, the vaccine doesn’t stop you from getting Covid, or transmitting covid, but it keeps you from dying from Covid, so time for you next booster shot.
    I know someone who has taken 5 shots, and has only had Covid 4 times now, plus new heart damage they are treating.

    1. I know of a young adult who has been boosted and who had a shingles outbreak. From what I have read, young pups can get shingles if their immune systems are compromised.

      1. “restoring trust”

        They won’t even keep perverts out of the girls locker room.

        Gutfeld cracked a joke about the woman who was kicked out of Planet Fitness when she complained about a man in the women’s locker room. He said that since it’s next to impossible to cancel your membership there, that’s a great trick to make ot easy. Complain and you’re cancelled!

  15. Also, today articles trying to protray “Deep State” as Government Organizations as being agencies that are just concerned about protection , welfare and.safety of US Citizens. THIS MUST BE the ” restoring trust” campaign Davos spoke of.
    Oh these are just Government agencies working to do all these good things for US Citizens.
    But don’t look at the US health Agencies, or FBI, or CIA, or military countermeasures to gain of function viruses deep state funds.
    No, they point out some Government Agency in charge of making sure clean water is distributed to Citizens.

    1. No, they point out some Government Agency in charge of making sure clean water is distributed to Citizens.

      I doubt they can even do that. If your tap water is potable, it’s most likely because the local water works people are still competent, and not because of any federal agency oversight.

      1. Indeed. The federal government is primarily interested in DEI hiring, not the best and brightest achievers. The complicated stuff is subcontracted these days.

        1. The complicated stuff is subcontracted these days.

          I have shared this story: I know a woman with the title of “Chief” at the USDA’s IT department. When I once asked her how to get a job there she referred me to a contractor. I asked her if USDA employees did any actual IT work and her answer was “no”. So I guess she and her USDA fellow Chiefs have lots of meetings, but don’t do any actual work.

    1. Getting down to the wet garbage layer under all the soot and shingles, I’m not getting paid to do this work, but I probably should be getting taxed on it, because reasons.

      Sour grapes would rather whine about interest rates than take on a project themselves.

  18. Covid: Don’t Let Them Off The Hook
    John Stossel

    Mar 19, 2024
    4 years ago, we were told we had “15 days to slow the spread.”

    Covid’s “15 days” turned into years, and the loss of our freedoms increased. It’s important we don’t forget what happened.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVqS0kb5waY

    6:42.

  19. Colorado,
    Will the Globolist be patient about collapse in population?
    IMHO, no way. One Wotld Order has very specific timelines to accomplish their agendas. 203O is major timeline for them.
    They launched their attack and they have to achieve One World Order dictorship by 2030.

  20. ‘You can clearly see that condos are staying on the market longer. And some of those prices are significantly lower price than they were a year ago’

    It’s a good thing everybody put 20% down Mark!

  21. ‘It’s a tale of two cities within one city. The higher market is insulated from what’s going on. In the rest of the market, we’ll see decreases in prices, because interest rates are holding steady and people can’t afford to stretch their budget’

    I’d bet every one of those could-have-been winnahs! are eating expensive food Mariya, probably more than once a day.

  22. ‘A South African investor sold a luxury housing site in neighboring Kensington for about £80 million at the end of last year — a discount of roughly £30 million from the price paid in 2017. ‘These super prime properties are becoming a real bargain,’ Caudwell said. ‘The risk is that the margin we expect to make is not made because the world is in a depressive state’

    That’s the spirit John, under-cut those money laundering fools!

    1. ‘The risk is that the margin we expect to make is not made because the world is in a depressive state’

      Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.

    2. ‘The risk is that the margin we expect to make is not made because the world is in a depressive state’

      Who in his right mind would buy a mansion in Londonistan?

      1. Who in his right mind would buy a mansion in Londonistan?
        The same people who would buy one in LA or San Fran. I have no clue who would do that.

    1. Money
      Reddit’s IPO Surges on Back of AI Hype, But It May Not Last ForeverInvestors are pumped about the social platform’s ability to train large language models, but will they stay for the long haul?
      By Sam Blum, Senior writer
      Mar 22, 2024
      Reddit co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman during the company’s IPO at the New York Stock Exchange.
      Reddit co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman during the company’s IPO at the New York Stock Exchange.
      Photo: Getty Images

      Reddit shares soared upon the social media company’s Initial Public Offering on Thursday, jumping 48 percent from its initial asking price of $34, in a rare glimpse of optimism for an IPO market that’s seen lackluster returns in recent months.
      …
      https://www.inc.com/sam-blum/reddits-ipo-surges-on-back-of-ai-hype-but-it-may-not-last-forever.html

  24. ‘So I don’t think it’s a Ponzi scheme. I think there are genuine reasons why property prices are overvalued’

    Denial <- Diana you are here.

  25. Some Seller’s Can’t Afford To Close (Brampton, Mississauga, & Durham Real Estate Market Update)
    Team Sessa Real Estate

    37 minutes ago

    In this episode we take a look at the current Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate home prices and market trends for week ending Mar 13, 2024. We also discuss why sellers need to be more in tune with their financial situation before selling. Not knowing the real numbers could leave you in a position where you can’t even afford to sell.

    Chapters:
    0:00 Introduction
    0:37 Know Your Numbers When Selling
    6:46 Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate Market Update
    16:38 Our New Townhouse Listing

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3bMDE0mjiQ

    17:44.

  29. Fortune
    Housing market data suggests the most optimistic buyers during the pandemic are more likely to stop paying their mortgages
    The wave of optimistic homebuyers in 2021 and the first half of 2022 are particularly vulnerable to drops in price expectations.
    BY Christos Makridis AND William D. Larson
    March 22, 2024 3:05 PM EDT
    During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a period when confidence in future housing price increases waned, despite actual prices still rising. Michaela Vatcheva – Bloomberg – Getty Images

    Traditional methods for forecasting housing prices and broader economic indicators are proving insufficient. In our recent research, we explored an overlooked aspect of home buying: the significance of buyers’ expectations. We found that the anticipations of mortgage borrowers regarding future housing prices are crucial for understanding the health of the economy.

    There’s a consensus that the expectations about future increases in housing prices and interest rates significantly influence housing market dynamics. The logic is straightforward: If individuals believe the value of homes will rise, they are more inclined to take on more debt. This effect is amplified in the housing market because you cannot bet against market downturns, making the positive outlooks of buyers more influential. Previous studies have indicated that this optimism can drive rapid increases in housing prices, creating “bubbles.” These bubbles often lead to inflated house prices, fueled by speculation.

    What occurs, however, when housing prices remain elevated but expectations begin to decline?

    Our findings indicate that expectations are critical in the decision-making processes of mortgage borrowers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a period when confidence in future housing price increases waned, despite actual prices still rising.

    We observed that borrowers who were initially the most optimistic about price increases were significantly more likely to request mortgage forbearance–a pause or reduction in payments–by about 50% more than the broader mortgage-borrowing population (6% versus 4% in our study) during this episode. This underscores the significant impact of borrower expectations on the housing market and economic stability.

    Expectations trump reality

    We began our research with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, specifically the National Mortgage Database, and noticed something intriguing: Before 2020, people who were positive about the future increase in house prices were more likely to pause their mortgage payments early in the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the fact that house prices were still going up. This observation led us to understand that these borrowers were reacting more to their expectations about the future than to the actual market conditions at the time. When their outlook on house prices temporarily worsened, they opted for forbearance. However, as their optimism returned towards the end of 2020 and throughout the pandemic, these same borrowers began resuming their mortgage payments.

    This pattern underscores how crucial expectations are in shaping how borrowers act, which, in turn, has significant effects on the broader economy. After our study period, which ended in 2022, expectations dropped substantially heading into 2023. Our findings suggest that the wave of optimistic borrowers between 2021 and mid-2022 may be particularly vulnerable to such drops in expectations if paired with negative equity or job loss. Thankfully for the mortgage market, the economy–and house prices–remained strong throughout this most recent episode of falling expectations.

    Our research serves as a warning to those involved in housing policy and finance: It’s essential to consider what borrowers are thinking and expecting, not just the usual financial indicators like interest rates, monthly payments, or how much debt they’re taking on compared to the value of their home.
    …
    https://fortune.com/2024/03/22/housing-market-data-suggests-most-optimistic-buyers-during-pandemic-likely-stop-paying-mortgage-real-estate-finance

    1. “If individuals believe the value of homes will rise, they are more inclined to take on more debt.”

      Is it supposed to be some kind of major academic finding that highly-levereged debt donkeys who believe that real estate aleays goes up are a major driver of housing bubbles and crashes?

      “This effect is amplified in the housing market because you cannot bet against market downturns, making the positive outlooks of buyers more influential.”

      It seems like buying a home with a monthly mortgage at over 2X comparable rent IS a bet against a market downturn.

      Imagine the effect on home prices when millions of highly-leveraged gamblers make the exact same bet. It’s almost like a Ponzi scheme.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vgqG3ITMv1Q

  30. Real Estate
    The mortgage ‘lock-in effect’ could worsen wealth inequality and is likely to last for years to come, researchers say
    Jennifer Sor
    Mar 20, 2024, 10:53 AM ET

    – High mortgage rates could end up freezing the housing market for a long time, according to a group of researchers.

    – Unless rates fall dramatically, the mortgage “lock-in” effect could last for years, they warned in a recent paper.

    – That could result in higher home prices and end up worsening the wealth gap.
    …
    https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-mortgage-rates-outlook-home-prices-affordability-wealth-gap-2024-3

    1. “High mortgage rates could end up freezing the housing market for a long time, according to a group of researchers.”

      Technically isn’t it the abnormally low mortgage rates that preceded today’s normal rate levels that explains the conundrum?

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