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In The Boom, Homes Sold Quickly, That’s Unlikely To Happen Now

A report from CTV Vancouver in Canada. “There are dire warnings that the condo real estate market in B.C. could collapse unless the province steps in to stop it. A representative of a condo owners’ association says recent changes to insurance rates mean that not only are buildings having to pay more for coverage – some are being denied altogether. ”This is something no one had foreseen,’ said Tony Gioventu, executive director of the Condominium and Homeowners Association of B.C. ‘This will collapse our real estate industry because no one will be able to get mortgages and there will be no buyers and no sellers.'”

“The buildings that are being hardest hit are those that are the most expensive: buildings with a high number of recent claims and strata corporations that have failed to keep up with maintenance and repairs. The Insurance Bureau of Canada says it’s a complex issue that won’t be solved quickly. A lack of insurance puts buyers looking to get back in the market at risk of losing their financing, and means sellers may struggle to sell their homes.”

“Zafar Khan is one of those sellers. Khan had an offer on his condo in Surrey, B.C.’s Cloverdale neighbourhood, and the deal was to close Feb. 3. But at the last minute it all fell apart, as the buyer pulled out of the sale. ‘I found out the strata ran out of insurance,’ said Khan. ‘If my lender finds out they’ll pull the mortgage.'”

The Kelowna Daily Courier. “What’s normal? It’s average. It’s neither high nor low, boom nor bust. And it’s what the Kelowna housing market is currently experiencing. ‘The consensus within the industry is this is a positive outlook for the year ahead and shows signs of the housing market normalizing,’ said Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board president Michael Loewen, a realtor with Royal LePage Kelowna.”

“Buyers from Vancouver and Alberta are fewer and that contributes to the market not overheating. A normal market also means there’s more balance for both buyer and seller. Sellers have to price their home competitively to attract buyers and buyers have time to shop around and negotiate. In 2017’s boom, homes sold quickly, sometimes with multiple offers driving up the price. That’s unlikely to happen now as homes take an average of 73 days to sell and buyers have the chance to bargain for a deal below list price.”

From Vice Magazine. “Remember a couple months ago when everyone got really mad about that developer placing a $5 million chandelier under a bridge in Vancouver? Now the same douche canoe behind that glittering monstrosity, Westbank, is throwing a Lunar New Year Party at the Shangri-La Hotel in Toronto, with an opportunity to purchase condos in their new luxury development: King Toronto. The best part is, if you purchase a condo worth around $2 million or more, you get to spin a wheel for a chance to win totally normal prizes like a Porsche or a Rolex.”

The Globe and Mail. “1 St. Thomas St., Townhouse C, Toronto. Asking price: $4,898,000 (October, 2019). Listing price history: $5.2-million (September, 2019); $5.5-million (June, 2019), under previous agent. Selling price: $4,888,000. Agent Andre Kutyan sold this two-bedroom townhouse in 2015 and 2010, so the current owners requested his assistance when they couldn’t find a buyer when listed with another agent in the summer and fall of 2019. Mr. Kutyan combed through his database to find six interested buyers, and one was quick to mobilize with a bid late October.”

“‘The most recent sale in this complex was a couple of years ago – an end unit similar to this, but a little bigger – and it sold for $5.5-million,’ Mr. Kutyan said. ‘We had to be less than that in the asking price and the market had softened too, so we had to be positioned better under $5-million.'”

From CBC News. “The general manager of MCL Construction Ltd., says it should be easy for a northern country like Canada to get into the kind of home that is so efficient it makes more energy than it uses. Brad McLaughlin is beginning to wonder if reducing residential greenhouse gases is really a priority in this country. His certified net-zero home has maxed out energy efficiency. The house has insulated concrete walls, triple glazed windows, 44 solar panels and a backup rechargeable battery system.”

“But the three-bedroom, two-bath home stubbornly refuses to sell. It has been on and off the real estate market since 2017. Starting out, McLaughlin’s asking price was $695,000. By May, 2019 he lowered it to $570,000. This week he put the two-storey Quispamsis house back on the market at $495,000. ‘It hasn’t moved,’ he said. ‘We had a lot of people through it.'”

“McLaughlin points to mortgage ‘stress tests’ and indifference from bank-hired appraisers as obstacles pushing buyers away from these higher than average priced homes. He said appraisers hired by lenders to determine the value of homes are at a loss when it comes to this sort of construction. ‘Around here they just don’t know how to value it. …They just say, ‘Well there’s a similar house down the street,’ he said. ‘Well, sure it might look the same but it’s a lot different.'”

The Calgary Herald. “Overall, resales in Calgary’s luxury market declined by about 13 per cent in 2019 over 2018. All told 531 homes across all types priced $1 million or more sold last year in Calgary compared with 611 the previous year. Single-family homes made up 92 per cent of all luxury sales. And sales overall in the high-end market account for only five per cent of all resales in the city. The report notes less than five per cent of sales went over asking price in Calgary. The report also notes weakness in agriculture and energy weighed down the economy overall with Calgary’s unemployment rate remaining relatively steady at 6.9 per cent compared with the national rate at 5.9 per cent.”

“On a bright note, however, the city did see its highest priced sale last year since 2015. The home located in the northwest sold for about $8.6 million — one of two properties selling over $4 million in the city. According to media reports and previous MLS listings on the web, the property had previously been purchased in 2013 for about $11 million, a record high at a time when the market was strong.”

“Don Kottick, CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada adds given the slow pace of sales, many luxury market sellers are likely willing to negotiate on price. ‘So the upper end still very much remains a buyers’ market.'”

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This Post Has 126 Comments

  1. ‘The home located in the northwest sold for about $8.6 million — one of two properties selling over $4 million in the city. According to media reports and previous MLS listings on the web, the property had previously been purchased in 2013 for about $11 million, a record high at a time’

    Tha’ winnah! Well it was cheaper than renting…

    1. “it was cheaper than renting”

      Sure it was, REALTOR, sure it was.

      As a renter, my monthly out of pocket expenses are internet $45, phone $35, electricity $25 (winter) and $75-100 (summer). I pay $10 a month on top of rent for parking, which pays for prompt and complete snow removal. Heat is included in my rent.

      I can save 50% or more of my after tax income.

      Why is that, REALTOR?

        1. Less than half.

          Anyone who “bought” with less than 20% down on a note longer than 15 years is, in fact, a subprime borrower.

  2. ‘‘The most recent sale in this complex was a couple of years ago – an end unit similar to this, but a little bigger – and it sold for $5.5-million,’ Mr. Kutyan said. ‘We had to be less than that in the asking price and the market had softened too, so we had to be positioned better under $5-million’

    Wa? Toronto to the moon Alice? Free cars and watches? Somebody is a lion.

    1. I dont care about someone buying a $5M home.

      When regular folks buying a $300K or $400K or $500K house are getting rigged, i am very upset

  3. ‘It has been on and off the real estate market since 2017. Starting out, McLaughlin’s asking price was $695,000. By May, 2019 he lowered it to $570,000. This week he put the two-storey Quispamsis house back on the market at $495,000. ‘It hasn’t moved’

    500k Canadian pesos is a sh$t-load of money Brad.

  4. Letters: Richmond has too many vacant, grandiose homes

    Dear Editor,

    ‘Re: “Compact living is greener living,” Letters, Jan. 23.’

    ‘While reading Jiangyi He’s excellent letter, my eyes screeched to a stop at “However, the housing supply has not kept pace….Canada’s housing/cost-to-income ratio is the highest in the developed world” and “Increasing the supply of housing is a critical step to bringing housing costs to a more affordable level.”

    ‘With these two simplistic paragraphs, Jiangyi He, although living in Richmond, very surprisingly did not reiterate the reason why this has been occurring in this city and across the country.’

    ‘Over the past 15-plus years in the Richmond subdivision where I live, every house that would have been eagerly moved into by a first-time detached home buyer was instead sold for out-of-average-reach price, torn down, and replaced by a grandiose house built solely as a commodity for financial gain.’

    ‘All stand empty. On just my short block there are 14 such houses and one tear-down vacant lot eyesore.’

    https://www.richmond-news.com/opinion/letters/letters-richmond-has-too-many-vacant-grandiose-homes-1.24065419

    1. ‘Increasing the supply of housing is a critical step to bringing housing costs to a more affordable level’

      Now we got gluts and empty oversupply round the round world. And we still have to put up with this shortage horse-hockey every day. Oh and there’s no foreclosures, except I can pull them up all day in every corner of the US.

      1. I was reading an article about housing the other day and in the comments section there was a random person saying they had two vacant foreclosures on their street for over 10 years, and they’re still vacant. The whole market is artificial. Until the banks stop this, I really don’t see how we’ll ever get back to normal. In fact, I’m realizing I could be dead before it happens.

    2. Read a few of the other letters. They have been totally brainwashed by the globalists and their press. They are starting to get an attitude adjustment as they realized they have borrowed $600,000 for an asset that at best has an intrinsic value of $200,000. People like Bloomberg have gotten rich off their stupidity. However, there is hope. Saw this article:
      https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-spending-2020-election-2ceac839-1efc-4914-afe2-66016ac20faf.html

      This type of article is going to create a backlash. Trump spent his money just to level the playing field. He still was tremendously outspent by Hillary but he spent enough. People understood that he was using his money just so he would not have to seek money from people who wanted something in return. Bloomberg is trying to straight out buy the election and create a very unlevel playing field. Probably why $300 million dollars has only resulted in 10 percent support.

      1. ‘A Florida man was arrested after allegedly driving his vehicle into a Republican voter registration tent in Jacksonville on Saturday, according to local officials and the county GOP office, which said that the suspect intentionally targeted the tent in what may be an act of politically motivated violence. Gregory William Loel Timm, 27, was identified as the suspect in the case, according to the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office. Timm is accused of driving a van through a tent where workers were trying to register voters.’

        ‘He was charged with two counts of aggravated assault on a person over the age of 65, criminal mischief, and driving with a suspended license, said the sheriff’s office. The office wrote that a dispute was reported around a Walmart store on Atlantic Boulevard, and when police responded, victims said he drove a van through the tent. The Republican Party of Duval County, in a statement, said that six Trump campaign volunteers were “intentionally targeted while registering voters.” It added: “Thankfully, Republican volunteers narrowly avoided being struck by the accelerating van. The driver sped away after making an obscene gesture toward the crowd.”

        https://www.theepochtimes.com/man-arrested-after-allegedly-driving-through-gop-voter-registration-tent-police_3232238.html

        1. “aggravated assault on a person over the age of 65”

          Is that like a hate crime now? What are us young folks, chopped liver?

          1. Oxide, you are road kill. I am included in the road kill group but a lot closer to being protected than you are.

      2. It gets to the point you ignore Bloomberg adds because there is just to many of them. At least this add campaign by Bloomberg is .
        creating jobs in America. These Globalist like Bloomberg usually don’t care if they invest in America, except around voting time.

        1. The globalist oligarchs who fund and control the Democrat Party must be unnerved by indications that being a stooge of Wall Street and the corporatocracy is starting to be viewed as a liability by grassroots Democrats screwed over by the crony capitalist status quo. Since the globalists’ anointed ones, Biden, Fauxahontus, and Mayor Pete all have the stink of Wall Street money on them, any “awakening” among the Democrat rank-and-file as to the pernicious role of the globalists and their political hirelings could seriously upset the apple cart before the November elections.

          https://www.foxnews.com/politics/buttigieg-and-sanders-supporters-trade-jeers-and-cheers-3-days-before-nh-primary

          Sanders – a self-described democratic socialist U.S. senator from Vermont who’s fueling his massive campaign cash haul with small-dollar grass roots donations – had targeted Buttigieg — a former mayor of South Bend, Ind. — at Friday night’s Democratic presidential nomination debate in Manchester.

          “Unlike some of the folks up here,” Sanders said, “I don’t have 40 billionaires, Pete, contributing to my campaign, coming from the pharmaceutical [industry], Wall Street and all the big-money interests.”

          On Saturday night, as Buttigieg spoke at the Shaheen-McIntyre 100 Club Dinner, Sanders supporters in the crowd inside the Southern New Hampshire University Arena showered the candidate with jeers of “Wall Street Pete!”

          1. a self-described democratic socialist

            I do wonder if any of his enthusiastic supporters have a clue what the abbreviation for that is in German.

          1. If you watch CNN you will see them. Lucky I do not have to listen to them
            I see them at my gym while I am working out. To be fair they have multiple channels including Fox. However I prefer OAN..

    3. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1080-Pleasant-St-Birmingham-MI-48009/2091153459_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1975-Cole-St-Birmingham-MI-48009/24533143_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1389-Pilgrim-Ave-Birmingham-MI-48009/24498311_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/118-Waterfall-Ln-Birmingham-MI-48009/125757978_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1743-Derby-Rd-Birmingham-MI-48009/24531010_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2229-Manchester-Rd-Birmingham-MI-48009/24531920_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1515-Webster-St-Birmingham-MI-48009/24532845_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/832-Ann-St-Birmingham-MI-48009/24506391_zpid/

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2413-Manchester-Rd-Birmingham-MI-48009/24531947_zpid/

      Same thing happening here — some listed, some no longer listed, none have ever been sold or occupied.

      I wonder how those two $1,000/sqft condo owners in The Forefront (what I posted yesterday) feel about rubbing elbows with 30 renters instead of eight more like themselves now.

      1. $4,995,0004 bd
        7,145 sqft
        118 Waterfall Ln, Birmingham, MI 48009

        1/10/2019 Listed for sale $4,995,000
        9/30/2018 Listing removed $4,995,000
        7/29/2016 Listed for sale $4,995,000
        5/16/2016 Listing removed $4,995,000
        3/28/2016 Listed for sale $4,995,000(+603.5%)
        4/25/2013 Sold $710,000

        $1,169,0004 bd
        3,372 sqft
        2413 Manchester Rd, Birmingham, MI 48009

        Year built:2019

        1. We’ll see if it sells this year — little to nothing above $600,000-$700,000 is moving in 48009 right now.

          I left this falling knife off because it’s not new construction — look at that last price cut:

          https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/968-Arlington-St-Birmingham-MI-48009/24504937_zpid/

          https://www.nytimes.com/real-estate/usa/mi/birmingham/homes-for-sale/968-arlington-st/12987-F2146859929?channel=sale&priceMax=50000000&priceMin=100000

          They can’t seem to agree on exactly what the square footage is, however.

    1. Plenty of pricey coastal properties with mobile home parks down through Carlsbad and Encinitas. The development with that $1.25M overly peachy home I posted on Friday is adjacent to one.

  6. “There are dire warnings that the condo real estate market in B.C. could collapse unless the province steps in to stop it.

    When did it become the province’s job to protect speculators and fools who overpaid from their own greed and recklessness?

    1. Now that prices are set to crater, it’s time for the goobermint to pump in support.

      Why wasn’t the BC REIC warning back when prices were shooting up to stratospheric levels?

      “There are dire warnings that the condo real estate market in B.C. could collapse unless the province steps in to stop it. A representative of a condo owners’ association says recent changes to insurance rates mean that not only are buildings having to pay more for coverage – some are being denied altogether. ”This is something no one had foreseen,’ said Tony Gioventu, executive director of the Condominium and Homeowners Association of B.C. ‘This will collapse our real estate industry because no one will be able to get mortgages and there will be no buyers and no sellers.’”

    2. “A representative of a condo owners’ association says recent changes to insurance rates mean that not only are buildings having to pay more for coverage – some are being denied altogether.”

      My latest homeowner insurance renewal has a sharp increase, which is likely the result of recent huge losses due to California wildfires and flooding in other states. The only other (larger) rate increase was back in 2009 right after the financial crisis.

  7. ”This is something no one had foreseen,’ said Tony Gioventu, executive director of the Condominium and Homeowners Association of B.C. ‘This will collapse our real estate industry because no one will be able to get mortgages and there will be no buyers and no sellers.’”

    Two things, Tony: 1) Someone (hint: Ben & Co. on the HBB) DID in fact foresee this dire scenario, but our repeated warnings went unheeded; and 2) true price discovery is a thing of terrible beauty that is going to lay waste to housing bubbles and fake Yellen Bux valuations, punishing speculators and restoring affordability and sanity to the housing (shelter) market. So untwist panties, Tony, you drama queen – you and everyone else who overpaid might meet your financial Waterloo, but the end result will be affordable housing for the prudent and responsible, and ultimately a healthier, more sustainable housing market.

    1. ‘If my lender finds out they’ll pull the mortgage’

      Guess what Zafar? They just found out! Sux to be you.

  8. “The buildings that are being hardest hit are those that are the most expensive: buildings with a high number of recent claims and strata corporations that have failed to keep up with maintenance and repairs.

    Oh dear. What if “luxury” buildings thrown up by developers using cowboy contractors and illegal labor to maximize profits start developing serious structural issues, as well as a myriad of other issues due to substandard construction overlooked by captured regulators and appraisers, necessitating endless costly maintenance and repair levies on hapless owners? Why, I fear that such a scenario, replicated over tens and thousands of apartments, condos, and shacks hastily thrown up during Housing Bubble 2.0, could result in rapidly depreciating condo prices, followed by millions of FBs with no skin in the game walking away from their underwater “investments.” These same FBs, bitter but wiser, would be much more judicious in future housing “investments,” which means Housing Bubble 3.0 is a forlorn hope.

    In addition, the implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 and the accompanying Great Financial Crisis 2.0, will almost certainly be of sufficient magnitude that tens of millions of red-pilled FBs and defrauded, pauperized retail investor muppets will finally do what they should’ve done in 2008, and demand accountability for those who caused the crash, starting with the Fed and captured regulators, enforcers, and policymakers.

    I’m sure glad I’m a renter when I think of how this is likely to play out.

    1. “What if “luxury” buildings thrown up by developers using cowboy contractors and illegal labor to maximize profits start developing serious structural issues”

      I’ve worked in several of these around Denver, “luxury” rentals not condos for sale. There is so much hack work hiding in the walls and ceilings, you don’t even want to know 🙁

      1. It’s just mind blowing to me that people just didn’t reject the Ponzi Scheme housing market. Must be something in the water.

        1. “Must be something in the water.”

          It’s not the water, it’s the educational system. We are surrounded by a population of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes.

          2. Actually the core problem is faulty lending. Use to be in the old days if someone overpaid by even 10% the lender would make the dumb buyer put more money down.

            Now you got lenders going on any sales price that comes in.

            In a similar way the Government backed higher education cost . For years now price fixing monopoly pricing in health care was backed by Obama care where people were forced to pay high prices or pay a tax penalty.

            Does anybody have any doubts that big government isn’t going to screw you royal.

  9. Brad McLaughlin is beginning to wonder if reducing residential greenhouse gases is really a priority in this country. His certified net-zero home has maxed out energy efficiency. The house has insulated concrete walls, triple glazed windows, 44 solar panels and a backup rechargeable battery system.”

    “But the three-bedroom, two-bath home stubbornly refuses to sell.

    Two suggestions, Brad:

    1. Bury a figurine of St. Greta in your backyard
    2. Slash the price

  11. Chinese are starting to crack under the strain of enforced imprisonment in their homes and quarantine zones. About 400 million Chinese (at least) have been affected by these lock-downs – which is a huge pool of potentially disaffected people who might take a much more adversarial view of their feckless Communist Party overlords by the time they emerge from their enforced isolation. “Are you humans, or are you devils?” one distraught Chinese lady asked on social media after the loss of a family member early in the crisis – if millions of her countrymen conclude the CCP are in fact devils, the Party will have lost the “Mandate of Heaven” – and social unrest is likely to ensue.

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1226281659861028864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1226344377687121925&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fwere-totally-dark-japan-not-doing-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers

    1. Some vacation!

      This is life under coronavirus quarantine on a cruise ship, military base, in a hotel or at home
      By Dakin Andone, CNN
      Updated 10:50 AM ET, Sun February 9, 2020

      (CNN) More and more people face 14-day quarantines as health officials around the world try to stem the tide of the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed more than 800 people and infected more than 37,000 worldwide.

      Those being monitored for signs of infection are ordinary people who now find themselves in an extraordinary circumstance. Some are honeymooners or students who went on vacation, but are now confined to their cabins aboard a cruise ship. Some are evacuees being monitored on US military bases, while others are reporters doing their jobs in a Beijing hotel room.

      As they’re sequestered for two weeks, some of these evacuees, patients and passengers are sharing their stories. This is what they told CNN about life under quarantine.

      ‘Beyond frightening’
      …

      1. The virus is spreading like wildfire on the cruise ship. And yet there are still only three cases in India. Something is clearly screwy with the method of transmission.

          1. The count in India has stagnated at “3” for days. Surely the relatively transparent government of India would have reported more cases by now.

      1. So close to four hundred cases outside of China and exactly two deaths. There are only ten people in serious condition. If all of those died, you will still have only 12 deaths. If it occurred you would have a death rate of around 3%. To reach the estimates of some on this blog that the disease was going to kill a third of its victims, you would need an additional 118 deaths. Hardly looks remotely likely. Looks like that estimates of the CDC of a 2 to 4 percent death rate was pretty damn accurate. Since they had a handful of cases outside of China to work with to provide the estimate. The CDC then revised it to 2 to 3 percent but said it would probably fall even more. Do not get me wrong, it is a very serious virus and a disease with even a 2 percent death rate is horrible. But it is not the second coming of the black death.

        Latest numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

        1. How do you explain the deaths which come over a month after contraction? Because, those diagnosed abroad haven’t even reached that point.

        2. estimates of the CDC

          This is exactly like your long time use of the CIA Worldbook statistics to support China’s GDP published numbers. The CIA used the China CCP published numbers directly without modification.

          On another tack, the virus probably doesn’t kill most of the victims, the bacterial pneumonia which follows does. If the patients are housed in unsanitary conditions, crowded together, have no doctors, no medicine, no hot water, no heat, no toilet, they’re screwed. Put that in your formulae.

          2. Funny you would mention that. The papers are filled with stories how this virus will have a much more dramatic impact on world growth than Sars because China’s economy is four times the size it was in 2003. How is that possible unless China’s figures were in the ballpark? Now a lot of growth did not make the country stronger and has left the country deep in debt but not the CIA and me thought that is was not dramatically overstated. I thought it was in the neighborhood of 1 to 1.5 percent overstated. You were saying when the Chinese were claiming 7 percent that they might even be in contraction. It just made no sense given trade balances, commodity imports etc.

    1. Isn’t floating ships the #1 method of global heavy.duty trade for most every Nation? … T$k, T$k

      Health | Asia Pacific |Virus Outbreak China

      The Latest: US funneling flights from China to 11 airports
      2 hours ago

      “Wolf said the Coast Guard is monitoring cargo ships carrying crew who have been to China to make sure they are not carrying the virus. If any show symptoms, they won’t be allowed in, he said”

      The acting head of U.S. Homeland Security says the U.S. is taking the necessary steps to protect Americans with a “multilayered strategy” at air, land and maritime ports of entry to stem the spread of the new virus.

      Secretary Chad Wolf said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that the U.S. is now funneling flights from China to 11 airports, including any individual who has been in China in the last 14 days, to ensure they get medical screening and medical care. If needed, potentially affected individuals may be government-quarantined or self-quarantined.

      (Ma$$ human vector tran$portation mode$ … Inter$ect$ with … “Ju$t.in.time” global di$tribution dependabilitie$.)

    2. Per the video: MORE than 50,000 already dead, over 1.5 million confirmed infected. Think about it – you don’t rush to build new hospitals and quarantine 400 million people if something REAL BAD isn’t happening.

      1. Agreed. When you consider that 19 million Americans had the flu so far this season with 10,000 deaths, shutting down a large part of China for an illness with under 40,000 cases and less than 1000 deaths so far seems like overkill, unless the problem is a lot worse than reported.

        1. Agreed. When you consider that 19 million Americans had the flu so far this season with 10,000 deaths, shutting down a large part of China for an illness with under 40,000 cases and less than 1000 deaths so far seems like overkill, unless the problem is a lot worse than reported.

          Question for everyone here. Would you think or expect that US Intelligence agencies have a more (potentially very) accurate picture of what’s going on, or an ability to confirm or deny the official reports coming out of China?

          1. I think are intelligence agencies do know. We knew in the late 50’s or early 1960’s when there was mass famine in China and no one reported it. People in this country were defending communism by saying at the same time tens of millions were actually starving that at least people were not starving in China.

          2. People in this country were defending communism by saying at the same time tens of millions were actually starving that at least people were not starving in China.

            Sorry Dan, the CIA book on China GDP is a copy and paste of the official CCP release. Exact.

            People in this country were defending communism by saying at the same time tens of millions were actually starving that at least people were not starving in China.

            Sorry Dan (again). Everybody knew. I was just a kid, but my mother used it as a criticism at the dinner table if we didn’t clean our plates.

  14. I have grown weary of hearing people yammering on about how much their house price has increased, how well their stock market and crypto “investments” are doing, etc. Meanwhile, my boring self just saves and lives frugally, but my savings are being destroyed. Will a saver ever be rewarded again? This stuff is nutty.

    1. I hear you Headless. My savings along with some other things was destroyed.

      It’s just really nuts to reward gamblers and debt addicts.its just a real house of cards. I’m just hoping that a strong job market might start floating all boats. They have to be decent paying jobs I think.

    2. “my boring self just saves and lives frugally”

      LOL@ loanowners and their sense of entitlement. Most of these blowhards are a couple missed paychecks away from loosing EVERYTHING. Foreclosure, divorce, bankruptcy, suicide is their only fate, all because they believed the lie of REALTOR.

      Having f*** you money is really nice. Imagine life without the nagging, soul-sucking, emotional and spiritual rot that is the inescapable pit of having debt. Another world is possible…

    3. I will admit to becoming much more ‘head down/ don’t care’ about how local real estate is faring, or how other peoples investments are faring since making the purchase and long-term commitment to Casa Spiffy.

      Our situation and long term security is what we’re focused on, and there isn’t as much energy left over to go around given all the other things going on. I’m not unsympathetic to all those things, but it interesting to note how I concern myself less with things that I expect to personally impactful.

    4. They haven’t made anything if they haven’t sold. History suggests most will ride it all the way down and sell near the bottom and default on one or more loans. “Nobody could have seen it coming. Black swan!!!”, they will say.

  15. “…Tony: 1) Someone (hint: Ben & Co. on the HBB) DID in fact foresee this dire scenario, but our repeated warnings went unheeded…”

    “…that have failed to keep up with maintenance and repairs…”

    Holding costs were completely ignored during the mania.

    Now, instead of a HELOC enabled money machine, ‘owners’ are finding what they really signed up for was a financial boat anchor.

    Sometimes, it’s just not possible to get through to people.

    1. Now, instead of a HELOC enabled money machine, ‘owners’ are finding what they really signed up for was a financial boat anchor.

      AKA, the hungry alligator.

  16. In lane 4 driving for the Maxine Waters racing team…

    Man accused of driving van into Republican voter registration tent in Florida

    Sunday, February 9, 2020 11:13AM

    JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Florida investigators arrested a man accused of driving his van into a voter registration tent full of President Donald Trump’s supporters in a shopping center parking lot.

    Mark Alfieri, a volunteer inside the tent, said the driver missed him and five other volunteers by inches.

    https://abc11.com/5915350

    Maxine Waters

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJCDe7vdFfw

    1. I’ve been wondering, why does that scdave realtor guy always tell us if we didn’t vote for his candidate we’re in the Party of Hate? Just wondering.

  17. As an outside observer, how can you know where the truth lies?

    Published: February 9, 2020 3:54 PM UTC
    Billionaire Whistleblower: Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Is Over 50,000
    Exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui recently revealed leaks from Wuhan crematoriums. He claims based on the number of bodies their furnaces are burning, the death toll could be as high as 50,000.
    Author: W. E. Messamore
    Coronavirus
    — A Chinese billionaire and whistleblower who lives in U.S. exile says Wuhan crematoriums have burned 50,000 coronavirus victims. | Credit: Chinatopix via AP
    — The official coronavirus death toll in China is a little over 800. But an exiled Chinese businessman says crematoriums are leaking the real figure.
    — A billionaire whistleblower alleges Wuhan has crematoriums working 24/7. He claims they’ve cremated some 50,000 coronavirus victims.
    — Guo Wengui is a Chinese billionaire living in exile in the United States.
    …

      1. Case in point: The Epoch Times has covered this extensively, and if you follow their articles, it’s clear 50k isn’t physically possible:

        ‘A senior official at a crematorium in the coronavirus epicenter of Wuhan, China, says their intake has skyrocketed in recent weeks, suggesting that more people are dying of the disease than officially reported.’

        ‘Beginning around Jan. 22, the number of dead bodies received by the government-operated funeral home has drastically increased—peaking at 127 bodies on Feb. 3, the official said, adding that he’s been seeing about four to five times the usual workload.’

        ‘The official made the revelations during a Feb. 4 phone call by an undercover reporter for the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times, who posed as a member of the central government task force overseeing the outbreak response. This publication is withholding the name of the official and funeral home to protect his identity.’

        https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-funeral-homes-in-coronavirus-ground-zero-cremating-dozens-of-bodies-a-day_3228938.html

        If you want to know what’s going on in China, get an e-subscription to ET. It’s inexpensive, they are well connected on the mainland and they do top notch journalism.

        1. It’s hard to know what to believe. In life, I tend to go with my gut. I wouldn’t be surprised if 50,000 are dead already. Why? Because you don’t rush to build new hospitals and quarantine almost half a billion people unless the situation is absolutely dire. 50,000 wouldn’t really be a lot when you consider their population size.

          1. What I said, based on what I’ve read, is that cremating 50k isn’t possible. Also, I’m sure that the ET would have caught news about that high a total if it were the case. Sure, it is possible, but one wing-nut comment about that many cremations is uninformed.

          2. …one wing-nut comment about that many cremations is uninformed.

            I’m skeptical of any Chinese billionaire who’s “in exile.” Starts sounding like a thief who stole a bunch of Yuan and fled.

            Having said that, I think what’s clear is that we’ll never get the true story from China. Ever. Remember, they were lying about SARS the whole time, too.

          3. “…they were lying about SARS the whole time…”

            It can also be hard to tell lying apart from ignorance. There is a pretty good chance that the full truth of the situation is unknown and unknowable, given the size of the problem.

          5. It’s hard to know what to believe. In life, I tend to go with my gut. I wouldn’t be surprised if 50,000 are dead already.

            I’ve had that exact same topic pop up in conversation with multiple people in the last week. With all of the mis-information campaigns and general manipulation that’s occurred online over the last 5 years, combined with the Chinese government’s reputation, lots of people are assuming that a majority of the information they are hearing is false or manipulated. They just don’t know what they can believe anymore.

      3. Ben, I applaud that move. Look there is a check on the Chinese government and that is what is happening to the victims outside of China. Allowing the posting of the impossible just discredits this blog. China has plenty to answer for, it is clear that they failed to report this virus to the world for months and have allowed probably thousands of their people to die unnecessarily since the delay and the coverup allowed it to spread unnecessarily. The possible link of the Wuhan lab certainly needs to be investigated. A virus that can be spread as least as easily as common flu with 20 times the death rate certainly justifies the measures the Chinese are using now. They should have been used far earlier and someone does need to explain whether they were not and whether and why the coverup was more important than the containment.

  18. The whole strata condo thing has me wondering what will happen to private developments when major infrastructure systems come up for replacement, and the development is occupied by people who are there because they don’t like sharing? Will they look to already-broke localities to bail them out?

    1. copper is probably the closest thing left

      Copper is a monetary metal. It is counter-intuitive, but in a world where debt denominated in fiat is defaulting, the collateral Money gets liquidated at a discount. It is indeed a crazy world.

    2. Business News
      February 9, 2020 / 5:33 PM / Updated 2 hours ago
      Oil prices fall on oversupply worries as virus hits China demand
      Florence Tan
      FILE PHOTO: An oil pump is seen just after sunset outside Saint-Fiacre, near Paris, France September 17, 2019. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

      SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil prices on Monday extended their decline from an early January peak above $70 as the specter of excess supplies loomed over the market after the spreading coronavirus outbreak hit demand in China, the world’s largest oil importer.

      Brent crude hit a low of $53.63 a barrel and was at $54.09 by 0100 GMT, down 38 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 38 cents to $49.94 a barrel after striking a low of $49.56.
      …

    3. Oil, dry bulk shipping, and sovereign bond yields come to mind as other gauges of real economic activity besides copper.

      1. In stimulus we trust.

        Bonds News
        February 7, 2020 / 4:00 AM / 2 days ago
        UPDATE 2-Euro zone bond yields fall as dire German data fans economic worries
        Dhara Ranasinghe, Yoruk Bahceli
        * Euro zone periphery govt bond yields tmsnrt.rs/2ii2Bqr (Updates throughout, adds payrolls data, quotes)
        By Dhara Ranasinghe and Yoruk Bahceli

        LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) – Euro zone bond yields fell on Friday after data showing German industrial output in December suffered its biggest fall since January 2009 fanned concerns about the economic outlook for the bloc’s biggest economy.

        While bond yields across the region have risen this week, in part because of a sense that the outbreak of coronavirus could be contained, a sense of caution returned as the weekend approached — encouraging investors back to safe-haven assets.

        German industrial production tumbled by 3.5% on the month, undershooting expectations for a 0.2% fall, in the biggest drop since January 2009.

        Data from France meanwhile showed French industrial production fell much more sharply than expected in December as factories contended with nationwide transport strikes and a broader European slowdown.

        “Industrial production figures from Germany and France were shockingly poor,” analysts at Daiwa said in a note.

        “The German data significantly raise the probability that the GDP report due a week today will… show a contraction in the fourth quarter.”

        Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield fell to as low as -0.368%, before rising slightly in late trade following a report that raised the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the euro area.
        …

        1. Streetwise
          The Market’s Favorite Recession Signal Probably Has It Wrong
          Fears over the coronavirus outbreak have pushed the yield curve negative, but this may reflect something more benign
          By James Mackintosh
          Updated Feb. 4, 2020 5:43 pm ET

          The market’s most-popular recession warning is flashing red again as fears about the economic impact of China’s coronavirus outbreak prompt a big drop in Treasury yields.

          Yet the warning—a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below the three-month bill, known as an inverted yield curve—is signaling something much more benign: the expectation of Federal Reserve support later this year.

          The inversion was also small enough that a bout of optimism leading to higher bond yields saw the 10-year yield edge above the three-month again on Tuesday. The 10-year yield’s rise to 1.603% reversed a recent downward trend, while the three-month yield stood at 1.571%.

          In fact, the yield curve is increasingly likely to miss the next recession anyway, because the Fed is already so close to zero.
          …

    4. Baltic Exchange Dry Index

      The Baltic index, which tracks freight rates for world’s largest cargo ships, sank to the lowest level since March 2016 in early February, with the capesize segment falling to an all-time low amid weak demand for ships and muted activity in China as the coronavirus outbreak deepened. The dry bulk index has plunged around 83 percent after touching a multi-year high of 2,518 points last September. Baltic Exchange Dry Index – data, forecasts, historical chart – was last updated on February of 2020.
      …

  21. This is beyond horrible. It’s a cautionary tale of what can happen when the hospital system of a major urban area is overwhelmed by an unchecked epidemic.

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus
    A family at the heart of the coronavirus epidemic
    ‘I didn’t realise they would just die like that, so quickly and so easily’
    Family portrait of Salia Yang, back left, with her husband, mother and grandparents. Her mother and grandfather died within two days of each other in Wuhan
    Robin Yu and Sue-Lin Wong in Hong Kong 2 hours ago

    The last conversation Salia Yang had with her mother was when she was lying in hospital in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of the deadly coronavirus outbreak. Her mother, too weak and feverish to type, whispered halting voice messages into the family chat group. She was brainstorming how to get her parents — Salia’s grandparents — admitted to hospital. They were also infected with the virus but had been sent home to self-quarantine because the hospital had run out of beds. Four hours later, Ms Yang’s mother died. Two days later, her grandfather died too.

    Ms Yang’s mother and grandfather are two of more than 800 people to have died from coronavirus. Anger among Chinese is growing as it becomes clear that city authorities knew the virus was spreading for at least three weeks before Ms Yang’s mother died but suppressed the information. More than three-quarters of the deaths have been in Wuhan, a city buckling under the stress of dealing with the epidemic and reeling from the government cover-up.

    On January 18, about six weeks after the coronavirus started to spread in Wuhan, Ms Yang’s mother had dinner with five relatives to celebrate China’s lunar new year, the country’s most important holiday. Three days later, she started feeling feverish. Soon after, the rest of her family fell sick too. Over four days, she sought medical help at five hospitals but was turned away each time. Gasping for breath and unable to stand upright, she was finally admitted at a sixth hospital — but it was too late.
    …

    1. It sure sounds like the confirmed case count is constrained by testing kit availability. This problem is likely to increase as long as the growth rate of the true number of cases continues to rise.

      “Very ill people came to the hospital begging us to help them but we couldn’t. We only have so much space in the hospital and we didn’t have enough testing kits, there was no way for us to admit them all,”…

      1. case count is constrained by testing kit availability

        I don’t believe that. In the old days, before DNA test kits for viruses, what was that like 10 years ago, the diagnosis would be based on symptoms. Having a quota set as to how many cases each precinct is allowed to report each day seems more likely. I think the death toll is decided a day or two before it happens. JMO

        1. How can you distinguish novel coronavirus from other seasonal outbreaks (e.g. flu) without a test to ID the virus?

        2. before DNA test kits for viruses, what was that like 10 years ago

          When I went in-house in 2004, Roche’s foundational PCR patents were just about to expire after roughly a 17y life-span. Nucleic acid testing has been around longer than you think.

          1. Nucleic acid testing has been around longer than you think.

            I concede that. My undergrad Biology studies were in the early 70s.

    1. Odd how it seems to go up when certain foreign peoples are trying to get their $$$ out of their country (gov restrictions and now WUHAN VIRUS)

      No correlation im sure…

  23. OAN is reporting that the Thai shooter was upset over a real estate deal. I am serious about this.

  25. Let’s see 19 million cases with 10,000 deaths vs 90,000 cases with 1000 deaths and you cannot see the difference in the response ? If you allow 19 million cases in China with even a 1 percent death rate you will have 190,000 deaths. We would take much more draconian efforts in this country too. Nothing as severe as China, since we do have a democracy but very similar to what we are doing now.

  26. Well living in Sacramento now, I am waiting for deals and inventory to improve in the Sacramento area. Midtown, East Sacramento, Land Park, Curtis Park and even ghetto Oak park prices have been skyrocketing and shortage of inventory and house horny humper buyers creating prices to skyrocket. When will this madness end?

  28. Ok well midtown, Curtis Park and East Sacramento prices are sky high, why? For example this place is nutso pricing!

    https://mckinleyvillage.com/

    Elsewhere prices are high as well selling close to 400k+ for new construction

    https://www.drhorton.com/california/sacramento/sacramento?_vsrefdom=p.1717&npclid=CjwKCAiA-P7xBRAvEiwAow-VaaseHmc4oeLN5QbLo6xob8NabEvVvCpuwd237AQTxcXAtmmJBQRd0BoCrocQAvD_BwE&utm_source=google_centro&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=drhorton&utm_campaign=Sacramento:%20Brand&gclid=CjwKCAiA-P7xBRAvEiwAow-VaaseHmc4oeLN5QbLo6xob8NabEvVvCpuwd237AQTxcXAtmmJBQRd0BoCrocQAvD_BwE#

    So when will this madness end? Average houshold income in Sacramento is ONLY 70k

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MHICA06067A052NCEN

    So this smells like bubble trouble if 3.5x income is what one should spend on a home, right?

  31. Here’s why one longtime market bull is keeping powder dry even with the Fed giving a green light to buy stocks
    By Shawn Langlois
    Published: Feb 9, 2020 8:46 p.m. ET
    Getty Images
    How worried should investors be about the coronavirus?

    Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, has seen plenty over his long Wall Street career, but it appears as if the coronavirus outbreak, which he sees as the biggest risk to this bull market, has him a bit flummoxed.

    The longer that this virus threat continues to weigh on the global economy, the more it poses a risk for at least a correction in the stock market.

    That’s Yardeni pointing to the possibility of a 10% drop from recent market highs in an interview on CNBC on Friday.

    A longtime bull, Yardeni is more hesitant on this market than usual due to the lofty valuations that continue to increase risk. This latest catalyst, however, could deliver the shock that triggers a noticeable hit, he warned.

    “The markets have done remarkably well in the face of headline news that’s still unsettling like cruise ships being quarantined and China basically being completely quarantined because of cancellations of flights,” he said. “That’s got to be disruptive for supply chains.”

    Yes, there’s no denying that stocks have done well, with the S&P 500 (SPX, -0.54%) up about 3% since the start of the year, even after Friday’s decline put an end to a four-day win streak. The Dow (DJIA, -0.94%) is up 2% year-to-date.

    Yardeni, who says he’s going to keep cash on the sidelines until he gets more clarity on the coronavirus, remains bullish longer term.

    “Interest rates are so extraordinarily low,” he said. “The central banks have basically provided no interesting reasons to buy in the fixed-income markets and lots of reasons to buy in the stock market.”
    …

    1. Just when the last bear threw in the towel and decided to back up the truck…

      Opinion: Excessive optimism in the stock market suggests there are more declines ahead
      By Mark Hulbert
      Published: Feb 7, 2020 10:31 a.m. ET
      Mark Hulbert on a contrarian analysis of stock market sentiment

      CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Stock-market sentiment among short-term market timers is only barely more favorable today than it was two weeks ago.

      And that’s worrisome, since the timers were exuberant at that time. The dip that contrarians forecast culminated in the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s (DJIA, -0.94%) 600-plus point plunge on the last day of January.

      Now, however, just one week later, the Dow is back to new all-time highs (though it’s down Friday). Was the market’s late-January decline enough to work off the timers’ excessive optimism?

      I’m afraid not.
      …

  33. Coronavirus spread outside of China may be ‘tip of the iceberg,’ says WHO chief
    By Barbara Kollmeyer
    Published: Feb 10, 2020 8:09 a.m. ET
    A previous version of this report misstated the number of individuals infected by the coronavirus on a Japan cruise ship. The story has been corrected.
    AFP via Getty Images
    View of Les Contamines-Montjoie, near Mont Blanc in the French Alps, where five British nationals including a child have tested positive for the new coronavirus.

    The director-general of the World Health Organization warned Sunday that countries outside of China should be prepared for the spread of the deadly new coronavirus to accelerate, saying that it’s possible only the tip of the iceberg has been seen:

    The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.

    — Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, World Health Organization

    Ghebreyesus, who heads the WHO , made the comments in a tweet on Sunday, where he discussed the coronavirus’s contagion between people who had not traveled to China.

    His comments came as the death toll from the virus rose to over 900. China reported 3,062 new virus cases in the 24 hours through midnight Sunday, raising the total on the mainland to 40,171. Fresh cases were also reported in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, the U.K. and Spain.
    …

    2. I am sure his opinion has nothing to do with the fact that WHO is trying to raise hundreds of millions of dollars off this situation. I am also sure that the the vast majority of the money will be well spent and not go to the bureaucracy.

      Seriously, if the virus continues to act like flu, we may soon see a peak in cases everywhere. It will be interesting if it comes back in the Fall.

  34. Regulators on both sides of the Atlantic are belatedly beginning to fret about leveraged loans that have been central to the central bankers’ asset bubbles and Ponzi markets. Oh dear. Back in 2007-2008, when these same captured regulators started to shift into CYA mode, it was clear that the bubbles were about to burst.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/overheated-rapid-growth-of-leveraged-loans-sparks-debate-about-the-long-bull-run-2020-02-10?mod=mw_latestnews

    1. My professor buddy in a big city said classes will be cancelled until March 1 at the earliest, and the entire semester may be cancelled.

      That’s a lot of potential missed paychecks for everyone that works there — professors, teachers, administrators, cleaning people, cafeteria workers, and so on. The good news is the Party and CNBC told me every Chinese saves 50% of their income xD.

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