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It Feels Like 2008, Where Banks Did Not Understand The Risks

A report from Housing Wire. “It looks like borrowers who don’t fit neatly into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s lending criteria could soon be running out of options if they want to buy a house. Over the last week, many (if not all) of the biggest lenders specializing in lending to borrowers outside the Qualified Mortgage lending box paused their activities due to uncertainty in the market. And now it appears that Federal Housing Administration lending as we know it is disappearing from the market too.”

“Scuttlebutt in the mortgage industry over the last few days pointed to lenders raising their FHA requirements, and that’s just what appears to be happening. In fact, it seems that many lenders are raising their minimum FICO scores for FHA loans to as high as 660, which would prevent a large section of borrowers from accessing an FHA loan. For lenders and the secondary market, it’s all about pricing the risk. They don’t want to lend to super-risky borrowers because those borrowers are far more likely to default on their loans and the lenders and investors would end up losing a lot of money per loan.”

“There are millions of people who just lost their jobs as the coronavirus shuts down the country. And many more people are expected to hit unemployment in the coming weeks. Many of those people don’t have massive amounts of money in savings and that’s going to be an issue for them and for everyone they owe money to. That will likely lead to massive mortgage delinquencies. Here’s how the mortgage industry laid out that problem in a letter sent to federal decision-makers earlier this week: ‘To give one a sense of scale, if 25% of the nation receives forbearance for only 3 months, servicers will have to cover payments of roughly $36 billion. If they received it for 9 months, then the cost would exceed $100 billion.'”

The Wall Street Journal. “Among the hardest-hit victims of funding-market troubles have been mortgage-investment firms. What happens to them will shed light on what may be in store for the rest of the market. A handful of real-estate investment trusts that buy mortgages or mortgage-backed securities, called mortgage REITs, have reported margin calls by the banks that finance them. These firms are doubly exposed to the market right now.”

“If banks are indeed lenient with the mortgage REITs, it is a hopeful sign for the containment of risk to individual companies, for banks’ risk management, and for the Fed’s backstopping success. It also would be an important read-through for banks’ exposures to a much wider range of nonbank lenders through other forms of leverage, such as warehouse financing, which clients draw on to fund loans until they are sold via securitizations. ‘Liquidating collateral doesn’t behoove anybody,’ says Eric Hagen, analyst at KBW. ‘Banks are certainly capable of doing that, but it’s not what they want to do.'”

The World Property Journal. “‘The U.S. housing market has entered truly uncharted territory, shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic and a corresponding, sharp economic contraction that has already caused millions of Americans to lose their jobs,’ said Zillow Economist Jeff Tucker. ‘Rock-bottom mortgage rates have provided some small financial relief for homeowners and buyers, but it hasn’t been enough to avoid a slowdown. The big question at the moment is to what degree measures being taken by local, state and national legislators will help limit the number of foreclosures in the months ahead.'”

The Commercial Observer. “The niche market got a shock earlier this week when a Related subsidiary, Related Commercial Portfolio, warned that it could default on a roughly $200 million bond payment due in September. The Related subsidiary, which has issued one bond on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, was facing liquidity issues due to the outbreak, the company reported in its year-end financial statement on March 24, and would be unable to refinance the debt if market conditions didn’t improve in time. During the call, a representative for Related said they expect their residential tenants to be in a better position to pay rent, as their inventory primarily consists of luxury units.”

The Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico. “As in many other tourist destinations in the United States, a large portion of Santa Fe’s housing market is short-term rentals. But the demand for these vacation rentals, as in so many other sectors of the economy, has dropped off dramatically. Shane Morris tracks online traffic for short-term rentals across the country and said the market has evaporated in a short span of time. In Santa Fe, he said, internet searches for terms like ‘places to stay in Santa Fe’ fell by 97%. ‘When you lose 97% of your searches on a term, that’s deadly,’ he said. ‘They’ve all cratered in the past two weeks.'”

“Morris said those who own multiple short-term units will be affected most by the lack of demand. One of those people is Mary Ann Kaye, who owns 12 units. ‘We went from a sold-out situation to a ghost town situation,’ she said. Her company purchased all the units several years ago and converted them from apartments into short-term rentals. Now, she has to figure out how to pay for a dozen mortgages with few or no guests.”

“‘We made all our payments for the month of March, but if this continues into April and May, it’s going to be really difficult,’ said Kaye. In response to the crisis, many owners of short-term rentals are attempting to lease their units month to month to make up the difference, listing their properties on such websites as Craiglist. One of those owners is Brenda Wall, who has mortgages on two properties she used as short-term rentals. However, with most New Mexicans now ordered to stay home, she remains unsure she can rent them out for the long term. Wall said she took out the cash value on one of her life insurance policies – around $16,000 – to avoid foreclosure on her properties.”

“Based on statistics from a study last year, around 5% of homes in Santa Fe were listed on Airbnb last November alone, a large industry supported by various managers, cleaners and other employers. Morris said the potential for so many closures is reminiscent of the Great Recession and that he expects a spike in foreclosures over the next few months. ‘It feels like 2008, where banks did not understand the risks with lending money to people who owned so many properties,’ he said.”

The Orange County Register in California. “Coronavirus is slowing Southern California homebuying, with new signed sales contracts for existing homes plummeting 16% in the past week. Looking at conditions as of Thursday, March 26, ReportsOnHousing found 10,642 new escrows opened in the previous 30 days in San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange and Los Angeles counties, a 16% drop in demand from a week ago. Sellers, on the other hand, didn’t react as negatively to all the coronavirus news, listing 23,292 residences for sale. The good news is there’s no sign of panic selling and surging supply.”

The Marin Independent Journal in California. “The coronavirus pandemic is threatening to put a damper on the Marin County real estate market as it enters its normally busy spring season, local brokers say. ‘We’re all in uncharted territory right now,’ said Thomas Henthorne, a Marin agent. ‘The market was hot before this happened. I had my busiest winter and early spring ever. But now it’s all put on hold.'”

From Curbed Boston in Massachusetts. “New Massachusetts Association of Realtors numbers for February how a marked decline in single-family home sales compared with February 2019, but a generally healthy market for sellers due to a lack of inventory of available homes for buyers. As for single-family prices, the median was up 4.2 percent annually in February, to $395,000. That’s a rare bright spot for buyers as it was the first time in nine months where the median sales price was below $400,000.”

The Northwest Arkansas Business Journal. “Recent reporting would lead most people to believe the Washington County housing market is in fabulous shape and that everything is selling. While there are some bright spots, there are plenty of properties that are not selling. Student housing is overbuilt. We can already see signs of significant softening with the new mega-student housing projects. We have too many expensive new four-bedroom apartments for affluent students from the Dallas-Fort Worth area, while at the same time, university enrollment has taken its first dip in 20 years. And we are seeing fewer Texas students.”

“There are too many new houses on small lots priced from $500,000 to $600,000. Couple this excess supply with garage-centric, earth tone-colored builder designs that look exactly like they came out of 2004, and it’s no wonder they aren’t selling. Traditional design is one thing, but haven’t we had enough craftsman-styled tapered columns by now?”

“We have too many multifloor expensive townhouses in town. When you consider the typical buyer who wants to live close-in — and can afford to — is at least 55 years old, it baffles me why developers would keep building narrow units with too few windows and bedrooms on the second and third floors. No wonder they don’t sell. Older people want single-floor living.”

“We have too many modern, expensive houses and townhouses in south Fayetteville. When you go modern, you immediately lose about 95% of the market for the people who can afford houses of at least $400,000. When those units are built in the areas with the highest crime rates, you lose most of the two-income families with children that could actually afford to buy them. When it costs no more (and maybe even less) per square foot to live in the suburbs with the best-rated schools, traditional designs, larger yards and less crime, it’s no wonder sellers are having a tough time finding enough urban pioneers to buy these expensive south Fayetteville homes.”

“And when will builders here stop using the cheapest HVAC systems made, installing inoperable windows in all but the bedrooms where they have to open by code, and rough cedar columns on houses that shouldn’t have them? And when will they stop using the ‘peel and stick’ fake rock, or even worse, brick applied over the lower 2 feet of house and foundation where it can create water problems and future rot? Dang. I’m out of space here. And I’m just getting started.”

This Post Has 289 Comments
  1. ‘Over the last week, many (if not all) of the biggest lenders specializing in lending to borrowers outside the Qualified Mortgage lending box paused their activities due to uncertainty in the market. And now it appears that Federal Housing Administration lending as we know it is disappearing from the market too’

    Annnd they’re fooked. Subprime is vanishing, good bye bubble.

    1. When Fannie and Freddie got the qualifying DTI up to 50 percent of stable income I didn’t know there was anything left outside the box.

      I guess those consigned to the “gig economy,” because their income isn’t stable.

        1. Annnnnnnnnd its gone! Whats a better gamble for such specuvestors with these vacant investment properties

          A) put up for rent, risking a renter who doesn’t pay?

          Or

          B) dropping their pants and hopefully selling to the next knife catcher??

          Both options seem bad but I would lean towards B

        2. “Remember the poster from Utah with his airbnb “empire”? You’re fooked a$$hat!”

          Maybe him. Maybe the rest of us, with more pain the longer you will live going forward. TBD. Again.

    2. FHA lending disappearing from the market… That may hurt the typical american buyer. But wait! China is cured from the flu, cant they just purchase our shelter shacks!

      1. China is far from “cured.” They’re still in the abyss, whether they want to admit it or not.

    3. This reminds me of when one of those huge slabs of ice calves off into the sea from the Antartic ice sheet. A major slice of Housing Bubble demand is now melting away into the Southern Ocean. Good luck to sellers hoping to attract subprime-funded buyers who can outbid anyone of similar means.

  2. ‘new signed sales contracts for existing homes plummeting 16% in the past week. ..as of Thursday, March 26, ReportsOnHousing found 10,642 new escrows opened in the previous 30 days in San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange and Los Angeles counties, a 16% drop in demand from a week ago. Sellers, on the other hand, didn’t react as negatively to all the coronavirus news, listing 23,292 residences for sale. The good news is there’s no sign of panic selling and surging supply’

    Click!

    1. I see a lot of properties coming on the market at peak pricing and beyond. It’s like these people fail to grasp reality. Who in their right mind would think that during a time like this you’d actually get a higher price than anybody ever paid?

      1. Probably not the Zillow people who suddenly withdrew their blanket offer to buy anyone’s house who wanted to sell it to them.

  3. ‘The niche market got a shock earlier this week when a Related subsidiary, Related Commercial Portfolio, warned that it could default on a roughly $200 million bond payment due in September’

    How the mighty have fallen. So Related, pull out your check book and pay up. What’s that? This is some throw off subsidiary that you aren’t obligated to cover?

    Hear ye, hear ye, observe as the shack and airbox people screw everybody and anybody around them when things turn to SH!T.

    ‘a representative for Related said they expect their residential tenants to be in a better position to pay rent, as their inventory primarily consists of luxury units’

    Jeebus…

  4. ‘Mary Ann Kaye, who owns 12 units. ‘We went from a sold-out situation to a ghost town situation,’ she said. Her company purchased all the units several years ago and converted them from apartments into short-term rentals. Now, she has to figure out how to pay for a dozen mortgages with few or no guests’

    It’s like shooting fish in a barrel. Oh there’s no subprime, there’s no fraud! This isn’t even a legal business, and she gets 12 mortgages? Maybe a lot more than that, if she’s 2nds and 3rds.

    1. This isn’t even a legal business, and she gets 12 mortgages?

      That’s the kicker, isn’t it? I also wonder how many Uber and Lyft drivers will lose their cars.

    2. ” she gets 12 mortgages”

      No it’s difficult to get mortgage loans. They have been stringent…you need a job…you need 20% down payment…blah blah blah…

      It’s fooking subprime country and people talk $hit all the time.

      1. Had a yesterday call from a friend whom qualified and purchased using one of these loans last year. 3% down on a loan with a 4k mo mortgage not including hoa, insurance, and tax. Well his 60k income just got wiped away due to layoffs at his company and his wife work from home business has also come to a halt. He said he reached out for guidance from his friend / realtor who helped them buy it and she told him it wont sell for what they owe in todays market and best to stop making payments and let the bank take it. He said looks like his family of 5 will be moving in with the parents and walking away from the airbox they bought just 6 months ago.

        Realtor Is this time still different?

          1. One good cat-fight with the mother-in-law, and it will be time to get serious and install the Tinder app.

        1. This guy never had a prayer, in more ways than one. $60k income in CA and he has 3 kids and signed up for a $4k+ per month shack? This guy better look up MGTOW, ’cause that’s where he’s going like it or not.

          1. I will refrain from jabbing at him to hard but i had a feeling this was coming when he committed to the loan purchase. Yes his partner talked him into it while pregnant with kid #3. My warnings were not headed and for his sake i hope her legs do stay closed.

          2. Have you ever told your friend about this amazing invention called birth control pills?

      2. You didn’t need a down payment even in 2012 when Fannie was stingy. (Then again, I had a higher FICO, which is what allowed me to put 10% down)

  5. October 4, 2019

    We Call It The Real Estate Casino

    “The federal government has dramatically expanded its exposure to risky mortgages. In 2019, there is more government-backed housing debt than at any other point in U.S. history, according to the Urban Institute. A growing number of homeowners faces debt payments that amount to nearly half of their monthly income.”

    “‘There is a point here where, in an effort to create access to homeownership, you may actually be doing it in a manner that isn’t sustainable and it’s putting more people at risk,’ said David Stevens, a former commissioner of the Federal Housing Administration. ‘Competition, particularly in certain market conditions, can lead to a false narrative, like ‘housing will never go down’ or ‘you will never lose on mortgages.’”

    “The Federal Housing Finance Agency, at the time under Director Mel Watt, began working on plans to direct Fannie Mae to purchase loans with higher debt-to-income thresholds, Watt said. ‘It is intuitive – you think the higher somebody’s debt-to-income ratio, the more problems they are going to have,’ he said from his home in North Carolina, where he is now retired. ‘But that’s just not the best criteria to apply to be quite honest.’”

    http://housingbubble.blog/?p=2452

    1. Won’t Unlimited Quantitative Easing enable the Fed to gobble up all the toxic subprime mortgage backed securities and bury them in their balance sheet forever?

      This is where my understanding of finance reaches its limits. I don’t really understand what “Unlimited” means in this context.

      1. Unlimited Quantitative Easing

        Unlimited willingness to lend and pump perhaps, but there’s a limit on the other end of this proposition. With 10%, 20% or more of potential borrowers suddenly dropping out the business of lending goes off the rails.

        1. That’s good news, because the Fed already has plenty of toxic mortgage debt on its plate to gobble up as it is.

  6. ‘Democrats are coming down with a sudden case of buyers’ remorse. While Joe Biden stumbles around to wrap up the Democratic nomination, it’s another Democratic pol — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo — who’s emerged as the No. 1 political star of the coronavirus era.’

    ‘Biden’s victories on Super Tuesday and Super Tuesday 2 put him on the path toward the nomination but the former vice president virtually disappeared when the crisis began to take a turn for the worse. He has struggled to become relevant in the past few weeks, appearing on soft shows like “The View” and delivering a strange livestream speech in his library that did not inspire optimism.’

    “We have to take care of the cure,” Biden said in another of his nonsensical ramblings. “That will make the problem worse no matter what.”

    https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/25/joe-biden-replaced-by-andrew-cuomo-not-so-far-fetched/

    1. He’s a senile as Trump will be in another year or two. Reminder to self — shut up starting on your 70th birthday.

      This is the generation that won’t let go, because once they do the politicians coming after — in order to avoid getting all the blame themselves — might spend a lot of time talking about about how much of our diminished future is a result of self dealing by Generation Greed.

      Cuomo isn’t that young either. And he has no chance of a nomination because at one time he asserted that in exchange for the highest school spending in the nation, the people of NY were owed something. He has since backed off, but the teachers’ union doesn’t forget.

      How about that energy dominance?

      https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2020/03/29/imported-oil-american-gutlessness-means-perpetual-slavery/

      “We have too many expensive new four-bedroom apartments for affluent students from the Dallas-Fort Worth area, while at the same time, university enrollment has taken its first dip in 20 years. And we are seeing fewer Texas students.”

      Might be a problem for Aspen too, once people are allowed to go there again.

      1. The response to the oil price collapse is even more feckless than the response to the coronavirus.

        At least we can say the coronavirus situation is something new. OPEC slashes the price of oil to get rid of domestic U.S. supply, conservation and alternative energy, and then jacks it up again, over and over.

        All because we don’t have the guts to say “for national security reasons, oil is going to cost this, and gasoline is going to cost that” any time it could, briefly, be a little cheaper.

        1. we don’t have the guts

          Fixing the price of things doesn’t take guts, it takes crazy.

          If the “we” that runs this place would stop trying to imitate real growth with cheap and easy credit there would be fewer speculative bubbles. With fewer bubbles there would be fewer wild swings in resource production/scarcity.

          1. The point is THEY are fixing the price, manipulating it down to drive out U.S. producers and alternatives, then manipulating it up to cash in.

            Over and over and over again.

          2. “The point is THEY are fixing the price, manipulating it down to drive out U.S. producers and alternatives, then manipulating it up to cash in”

            American Exceptionalism at work.

  7. Why are viruses considered to be non-living?

    ‘Viruses are responsible for some of the most dangerous and deadly diseases including influenza, ebola, rabies and smallpox. Despite their potential to kill, these potent pathogens are in fact considered to be non-living.’

    ‘How is this possible? How can something as nasty as a virus spread so fast, reproduce and infect other living things but not be considered a living creature? The answer is complex and has been a subject of debate since the moment they were first named in 1898.’

    ‘The argument hinges on what we mean by ‘alive’.’

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/biology/why-are-viruses-considered-to-be-non-living

    1. ‘The argument hinges on what we mean by ‘alive’.’

      (Two boys fishin’ along a river bank comes upon a turtle crawlin’ around with no head attached, theys commence to argue, makin’ a nickle bet about who’s more correct about the turtles sit.u.a.shun. after much debate, they’s agree to let Uncle Willy be the arbitrator)

      Bobby:
      “That turkle ain’t daid Uncle Willy, why’s he’s stills acrawlin’s around! Anythang that’s a crawlin’ around can’t bees daid! Eye want’s my nickle!”

      Jimmy:
      “Of course he’s daid Uncle Willy, anything with its head clean cut off ain’ts alive!, eye wins that nickle!”

      Uncle Willy (slow smokin’ on a corn pipe, ponderin’ the merits of each boy’s pov) says:

      “Boys, did like tis, that turkles, he’s daid … he just doesn’t knows it!”

      J.Frank Dobie, Texan

      👾 … xaoh.knob.handle.deeth.germ$ don’t need no stinkin’ badges!

  8. Interesting posts Ben. There seems to be very low probability of a v shaped recovery in stocks or housing. Normalcy bias has yet to be overcome.

  9. Where did all the many trillions of dollars spent through Quantitative Easing to purchase assets since 2009 go?

    1. The Financial Times
      Corporate bonds
      Big companies raise record sums from bond market in dash for cash
      Investment-grade borrowers topped up their coffers by $244bn even as costs soared
      Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate controlled by Warren Buffett, above, came to the bond market twice in March
      © REUTERS
      Joe Rennison in London and Eric Platt in New York
      6 hours ago

      The world’s highest-rated companies, including Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Disney and the drugmaker Pfizer, have bolstered their ability to weather the economic downturn, swallowing higher borrowing costs to raise hundreds of billions of dollars of debt while lower-rated issuers struggle.

      Global corporate bond issuance by “investment grade” companies has surged to $244bn so far in March, the highest monthly total since a record $252bn was sold in September, according to Dealogic. The US has led the charge with a record $150bn of new bonds sold, and $28bn has been raised in Europe. Adding in a raft of new bank bond sales from the likes of Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs takes the global tally to $408bn this month, separate data from Refinitiv showed.

      Issuance was particularly prolific last week, after central banks and governments around the world announced further supportive measures for financial markets, including the Fed taking the unprecedented step of announcing that it would begin to buy corporate bonds.

      The coronavirus outbreak has prompted a general dash for cash from companies around the globe, with groups drawing down emergency credit lines alongside the spate of debt issuance. Corporate treasurers are trying to shore up balance sheets so they can outlast any drag on revenues from the economic slowdown.

      “People want to build a cushion for economic uncertainty,” said Andrew Karp, who runs Bank of America’s global investment grade capital markets business, who noted that previous weeks had seen a virtual drying-up of issuance, as alarm over the virus spread. “When you get the opportunity to access the market, people will jump through that window.”

      The past week’s US corporate issuance also made records, topping $73bn, according to the Dealogic data. The sum is extraordinary because unlike previous weeks of hefty issuance, it has not included financing for a big acquisition, said bankers.

      1. “Swallowing higher borrowing costs to raise hundreds of billions of dollars of debt.”

        You mean 3.0%, thanks to central bank intervention?

        1. I’m sure it’s in their financial statements. I’m not bored enough yet to wade through them to figure it out though.

          1. They’ve promised to pay their employees through April 18. But there is no way it’s going to reopen shortly after that. At some point they will begin layoffs.

    2. Silly Bear, it’$ $tuffed between the wall $tick$ in these $tructure$: 🏘🏘🏘🏘🏘🏘🏘

  10. Behind the Orange Curtain:
    👾 xaoh.viru$ … fast spreading news, read all about:

    Orange County passes 400 coronaviru$ cases, reports fourth death

    By Ian Wheeler / PUBLISHED: March 28, 2020 / OC Register

    The number of known coronavirus cases in Orange County passed 400 on Saturday, as county health officials reported 85 new cases, and one death, since Friday.

    The update, on Saturday, March 28, brings the county’s coronavirus death count to four. It also shows that the number of known cases in the county — a figure that’s dependent, in part, on the availability of testing — has doubled since Wednesday. Health experts believe there are many more cases, locally and globally, than have been confirmed.

    The county’s new report also shows that Anaheim now has the most known cases (37) of any city in Orange County. Irvine and Newport Beach, each with 36 cases of COVID-19 — the disease caused by the new coronavirus — have the second most cases locally.

    (Maybee the distribution will be slowed down due to the CON$ervative aspirations of this long time “John.Wayne airport” enclave)

  11. Speaking of Viruses, the “digital.device” industry is providing parent’s with a “bored teenager’s” in-house with a dream solution: getting boys & girls to play together disease free!

    WHO and game companies launch #PlayApartTogether to promote physical distancing

    VentureBeat / Dean Takahashi MARCH 28, 2020

    That signals a big mainstream moment for games, which have become even more popular as people are isolated in their homes without the chance to engage in physical entertainment. And it’s also a turnaround for the WHO, which last year branded “gaming disorder” as an illness that can be clinically treated. That move was greeted with dismay by game companies, but prompted a lot of discussion about addiction.

    Ray Chambers, United States Ambassador to the WHO, said in a statement that, during the challenging time of the coronavirus, he applauds the “ingenuity of partners from all sectors who are stepping up to assist in efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.”

    The WHO is enlisting the global gaming industry to reach millions with important messages to help prevent the spread of COVID-19. The games sector will launch #PlayApartTogether, an initiative to inform and encourage the vast network of users to follow the WHO’s important health guidelines, including physical distancing, hand hygiene, and other powerful preventive actions to slow the spread of COVID-19.

    1. “Boys & girls playing with each other disease free…”

      Culture
      03.12.2020 10:00 AM
      Covid-19 Can’t Stop People From Looking for Love (or Hookups)
      Sharing meals, hand-holding, and kissing can spread the coronavirus. That hasn’t stopped anyone from checking their dating apps.
      A man and woman kiss while wearing protective face masks
      As concerns about Covid-19 grow, many people’s minds have turned to romance. Photograph: Georgii Boronin/Getty Images

      Teens cough theatrically while their crushes spring away from them, retreating into their hoodies like turtles into their shells. Men and women walk up to each other on the street, stretch their arms out for hugs and their faces forward for kisses, only to jump back at the last moment and bump their feet together instead. A man walks down the street in a full hazmat suit, hand in hand with a coughing woman in shorts and a T-shirt while TikTok’s most ubiquitous new earworm—”It’s Corona Time”—honks and drones in the background. His caption: “When your girlfriend has coronavirus but you still love her.” Intimacy and social distancing do not mix.

      1. “A man and woman kiss while wearing protective face masks”

        Haha…can’t even rub noses with the N95 deployed.

      2. There’s a new study out that 6 feet isn’t enough social distancing. It’s something like 18-24 feet. And this virus is airborne — at least on droplets.

        At some point, the only solution to let this thing run its course, test everyone for antibodies and/or vaccinate, and issue an immunity certificate. Only then will life go back to normal.

        1. Poor saps standing in line six feet apart for half an hour, waiting to get into the grocery store, wherein social distancing measures only allow in a few customers at a time…but I’m sure they all feel good about their shared sacrifice to stop the spread of COVID-19.

        2. +1 Indeed. Airborne as an aerosol, e.g., a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas. Reminds me of pollen wafting in the air.

  12. Let’s hope this one-day doubling time is an anomaly, and not the start of a trend.

    ME OFFER | $1 for 8 weeks
    California
    Coronavirus patients in California’s ICU beds double overnight
    California Gov. Gavin Newsom
    Gov. Gavin Newsom in front of the Navy hospital ship Mercy, which arrived at the Port of Los Angeles on Friday.
    (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)
    By Taryn Luna, Rong-Gong Lin II, Sean Greene
    March 28, 2020
    7:06 PM
    SACRAMENTO —

    The number of coronavirus patients in California’s intensive care unit beds doubled overnight, rising from 200 on Friday to 410 on Saturday, Gov. Gavin Newsom said.

    The number of hospitalized patients testing positive for the coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease known as COVID-19 rose by 38.6% — from 746 on Friday to 1,034 on Saturday, Newsom said.

    “We’re blessed that we’re just at 410, devastating for the individuals there and their family members and loved ones,” Newsom said at a press conference in Sunnyvale on Saturday. “But by comparison and contrast to other parts of this country, that number seems relatively modest.”

    1. NYC coronavirus death toll was 222 yesterday. NYC averaged about 420 deaths a day before it hit.

      Things are still more or less under control at this level. But whatever Cuomo and DeBlasio are being told is scaring the s__t out of them.

      1. Is the daily death count fairly constant, growing exponentially, or somewhere in between?

        Math matters alot in this context!

        1. Daily count fluctuating. Moving average exponential. That’s more than double any prior day.

          1. The MSM gets distracted by the shiny object of daily fluctuations. But it’s the moving average that matters, as well as the eventual point of inflection in the cumulative case count curve. Most places aren’t there yet.

          2. the cumulative case count curve.

            This statistic can be very misleading as in some places the amount of testing is rapidly ramping up (or down).

            The death rate here is 0.000007

        2. The numbers we’re seeing today lag at least a week behind actual cases. It takes days between the swab and officially recording a case. Not to mention the 2-3 days of symptoms before someone goes for a test, and the 2-14 days of incubation before that. Today’s numbers are still Spring Break and Mardi Gras.

          1. “The numbers we’re seeing today lag at least a week behind actual cases.”

            What percentage of Americans have been tested? And is there any effort to estimate the number of cases among those who were not tested?

      2. ‘February 13: Mayor de Blasio conducted a taped interview with NBC News that ran during MSNBC’s Morning Joe. He said, “We have an extraordinary public health apparatus here in New York City . . . and what became clear to me was it was really about telling the people of our city, this is something we can handle, but you got to follow some basic rules. . . . This should not stop you from going about your life. It should not stop you from going to Chinatown and going out to eat. I am going to do that today myself.”

        ‘Later that day, New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson said, “It is important to support the Chinese community in New York City. Unfortunately many businesses and restaurants in Chinatown, Flushing, and Sunset Park are suffering because some customers are afraid of the coronavirus. But those fears are not based on facts and science. The risk of infection to New Yorkers is low. There is no need to avoid public spaces. I urge everyone to dine and shop as usual.”

        ‘March 2 Governor Andrew Cuomo, Mayor de Blasio, and city health officials held a press briefing about the city’s first confirmed case. Governor Cuomo declared, “In this situation, the facts defeat fear, because the reality is reassuring. It is deep-breath time.” Discussing the fatality rate, he said, “1.4 percent, that’s extrapolating from China and other countries. 80 percent, it’ll resolve on their own. The woman who has now tested positive, she’s at home, she’s not even in a hospital, so the perspective here is important. And the facts, once you know the facts, once you know the reality, it is reassuring, and we should relax, because that’s what’s dictated by the reality of the situation. I get the emotion, I understand; I understand the anxiety. I’m a native-born New Yorker, we live with anxiety. But the facts don’t back it up here. . . . What happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”

        ‘De Blasio concurred. “We have a lot of information now, information that is actually showing us things that should give us more reason to stay calm and go about our lives. . . . This is not, so far, something that you get through casual contact. There has to be some prolonged exposure. And I think it’s really important to get that information out to all New Yorkers.”

        ‘He also declared on Twitter, “I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives and get out on the town despite Coronavirus.”

        https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/the-timeline-of-how-bill-de-blasio-prepared-new-york-city-for-the-coronavirus/

          1. Glad we had hit the Chinese restaurant earlier. I though if we don’t do it now, who knows when we will be able to? And that was correct.

  13. ‘The shutdown of shows and sporting events has turned Paz Brennan’s world upside down. Brennan runs Spartan Crew, which erects equipment at venues such as Wembley Arena. As revenues vanish, he has had to tell 80 sub-contractors that there is no work for them.’

    ‘At first, the landlord of Spartan’s office, in the railway arches in Deptford, southeast London, played hardball. Blackstone, which has a $325bn (£260bn) global property portfolio, said it would have to keep paying the £2,000 monthly rent. Late last week, Blackstone backed down and allowed a three-month rent holiday. “It would have been carnage” otherwise, Brennan said.’

    ‘The disruption wreaked by the coronavirus has torn up the rulebook of landlord and tenant negotiations. Having been forced to close, shops and restaurants are scrapping for every penny. Only about 30% of this quarter’s £2.5bn rent bill was paid last week.’

    ‘Property lobby groups held talks with the Treasury last week, trying to thrash out a relief package for landlords, some of which could be left unable to service the interest payments on their debt. “We are facing cashflow issues,” one landlord admitted. “If we lose a quarter’s rent, some property owners will go to the wall. It’s as simple as that.”

    ‘Smaller landlords are not immune to the turmoil. Property agent Daniel Mendoza and his business partner bought a portfolio of 12 properties in London and the home counties to provide income for their pensions.’

    “People assume that property owners are extremely wealthy, but a lot will breach covenants with their lenders,” Mendoza, 51, said. “A lot of retailers won’t pay their rent and we’ll never get that back. Will our lenders accept we can’t pay them? I doubt that very much.”

    ‘The Bank of England has urged lenders to be lenient over breached covenants. Lobbyists are pushing the Treasury to make a pot of money available to landlords with temporary cashflow issues, pointing out that real estate accounts for £183bn of pension fund and insurance company investments.’

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/now-the-coronavirus-infects-property-giants-as-their-tenants-go-on-strike-over-rent-8dzkx22jp

  14. Are we running out of dollars?

    The New York Times
    A Bank in Midtown Is Cleaned Out of $100 Bills
    Large-denomination bills were in such high demand this week that at least one Bank of America branch wasn’t able to satisfy some customers pulling out tens of thousands of dollars at a time.
    The fear that has gripped Wall Street spilled over into the personal lives of some of Bank of America’s most affluent clients.
    Credit…Carlo Allegri/Reuters
    By Stacy Cowley and Anupreeta Das
    March 14, 2020

    As the stock market was having its worst day in 30 years on Thursday, customers at a Bank of America branch in Midtown Manhattan, the financial heart of New York, were lining up to take cash out of their accounts — sometimes tens of thousands of dollars at a time.

        1. Not necessarily. The virus may cling, but it doesn’t live long on natural fibers such as cardboard. Bills are woven of cotton and linen. The virus would live longer on plastic fibers such as polyester. The chance of spreading the virus through money isn’t any greater than grabbing a cart handle, or worse, the touch screens and push buttons when you use a debit card.

          And anyway, for a bank run on cash, how would that work? Physical currency is for when there isn’t electricity or computers. But we still have those. So couldn’t I still get cash back at the grocery store, or better yet, just use my debit to buy stuff from Amazon? Or put things on credit and pay the bill electronically?

          1. “And anyway, for a bank run on cash, how would that work?”

            The same way a run on physical gold can happen on the same day the electronically posted and manipulated spot price is fallung.

          2. Want to buy gold coins or bars? Good luck finding any
            by Hanna Ziady, CNN Business
            Updated 9:47 AM ET, Thu March 26, 2020

            London (CNN Business) Investors are snapping up gold bars and coins, seeking the security offered by the precious metal as the coronavirus pandemic trashes economies and forces central banks to print trillions of dollars in new money.

            But with major gold refineries across Europe shut because of government-ordered lockdowns, online shops out of stock and many of the passenger planes that move bullion grounded, physical gold is becoming harder to track down.
            “There is gold around, it’s just either in the wrong location or in the wrong form,” said Ross Norman, an independent analyst and former senior bullion dealer at Credit Suisse (CS). “Anyone looking to buy a physical bar or settle a futures contract has an issue.”

  15. Looks like “Prince” mB$ got$ “Czar” Putain to blink$, gue$$ it was either that or $uffer.the.Contract$.$hredding.Con$equence$!

    Home /Busine$$ / New$

    Ru$$ia says OPEC+ deal revival po$$ible if “other: countrie$ join in

    RT /28 Mar, 2020

    A new agreement to stabilize oil markets is possible if more nations support the initiative, according to the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev.
    In an interview to Reuters, the sovereign wealth fund chief said that coronavirus epidemic has become a “perfect storm” to trigger a new global financial crisis that will result in recession. To offset the economic fallout of the outbreak, countries should unite, including in imposing new output curbs to end the oil market turbulence.

    Russia, which is not a member of the the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was one of the key supporters of the production cut pact with the alliance, Dmitriev stressed, adding that the deal brought more than 10 trillion rubles (nearly $127 billion) to the country’s budget. Earlier this month Moscow and the OPEC kingpin, Riyadh, failed to agree on a new deal, sending oil prices to multi-year lows.

    “It was not Russia that made decision to boost output and withdraw from the OPEC+, but we [the RDIF] believe that we can back to the deal,” Dmitriev said, adding that Russia maintains dialogue with Saudi Arabia, as well as with some other nations.

    (Where’$ Jared @, exactly?)

    1. It will be interesting to see whether anything done at this point on the supply side can dent the impact of cratering demand.

        1. I filled up yesterday out of boredom. Gas on base here in Germany is still $2.95 a gallon. Oil down over 60% and gas is down $.09 since I got here 16 months ago.

          1. rms I think you have the wrong Mug. Mugsy is obviously military (weren’t you in Sri Lanka at one point?) The teacher from the Pinellas area in Florida is Muggy. I wonder how he’s doing. He was in the process of relocating to Rochester.

      1. Editors’ Pick | 21,991 views|
        Mar 26, 2020,1:22pm EDT
        Oil Headed To $10 A Barrel As Virus Lockdown Eradicates Fuel Demand
        Christopher Helman
        Forbes Staff
        Energy

        Oil prices have collapsed by more than half this year, to $23 per barrel today for West Texas Intermediate crude. But now is not yet the time to buy oil—because the worst is yet to come. Gasoline demand is set to plunge 50%, while jet fuel consumption has all but evaporated, with 87% fewer flyers taking to the air than a year ago.

        Every doomsday forecast is more dire than the last. Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects this week forecast a 10 million barrel per day drop in petroleum demand this April. Jim Burkhard at IHS Markit sees a gap between oil supply and demand widening to 12 million bpd in the second quarter. Analyst Damien Courvalin and his team at Goldman Sachs now see a worldwide drop in demand of nearly 19 million barrels per day.

        1. 15 Mar 2020

          ‘Saudi Arabia may need to borrow money to fill the gap between what it spends and the revenue it receives. It needs oil prices of around $82 a barrel to balance its budget. And Russia, according to the International Monetary Fund, needs oil at $42 a barrel. “They can’t keep up this fight for long,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, tells Al Jazeera, about the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. He adds: “Why? Because it is killing the economies of both countries.”

          https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2020/03/saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-russia-200315114308947.html

          1. What if they start calling all that money they have lent us to buy their oil home?

            We have been in the era of the global savings glut, with unlimited credit at low interest rates to buy unlimited goods produced by poor workers in the developed world, since 1995.

            No one can imagine anything different. No one is even talking about what something different might be.

          2. What if they start calling all that money they have lent us to buy their oil home?

            I suppose the FedRes will just buy those bonds.

          3. What happens if one of these hits a refinery?

            Valves, pumps and furnaces are all shut down automatically. Everybody from manager to janitor goes to hoses and “fire monitors” to save what’s left.

      2. Free markets in action are a beautiful thing to behold. If only the U.S. housing market could follow oil’s example, the world would become a better place.

        Welcome to a Truly Free Oil Market
        Julian Lee
        Bloomberg
        March 28, 2020, 10:00 PM PDT

        (Bloomberg Opinion) — At the point we’re now at, postponing the oil-price war won’t make a lot of difference for an industry that’s already breaking down under the weight of demand destruction. It’s too late to use diplomacy and artful negotiations to share the burden of output cuts that are now inevitable.

        The pumping free-for-all unleashed by Saudi Arabia and Russia is important for the long-term shape of the oil industry, but, as my colleague Javier Blas pointed out here, it’s a sideshow to the havoc being wrought by the lockdowns crippling economies worldwide in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Forecasts of a catastrophic drop in oil demand abound, with estimates of a whopping 20% year-on-year reduction in global consumption in April becoming more common. That’s 20 million barrels a day, equivalent to the entire consumption of the United States.

        It would be impossible for any small group of producers to mitigate that kind of impact by reducing output, unless Saudi Arabia and Russia were both to slash their production to almost zero. And that’s not going to happen.

        1. Reminds me of that episode of Star Trek where they shrug their shoulders at diamonds…we can make those.

    2. Opinion
      Donald Gasper
      As oil industry nears collapse, Saudi Arabia may have no option but to blink first in its price war with Russia
      – Given coronavirus-weakened demand, and with Russia in a better financial position to ride out the price rout, a heavily indebted Saudi Arabia simply cannot afford to sell at such low prices for much longer, unless it wishes to take the oil industry down with it
      Donald Gasper
      Published: 1:00am, 30 Mar, 2020
      Updated: 1:13am, 30 Mar, 2020

      A black swan is an unpredictable event, beyond what is normally expected of a situation and with potentially severe consequences. Such events are characterised by their extreme rarity and severe impact. The term was popularised by the 2007 book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

      As if the coronavirus crisis was not enough, this month, another black swan hit “black gold” – a reference which reflects the high value of petroleum – as a sharp fall
      in global oil prices took the world’s markets by surprise and sent the oil industry reeling.

      Since the beginning of March, oil prices have tumbled by roughly half. The industry is confronting what the financial press calls its biggest crisis in 100 years, as demand for petroleum shrinks.

      The fall came as Saudi Arabia on March 8 tore up the agreement
      it had made with Russia in September 2016 to cooperate in managing the price of oil. This agreement, due to be renegotiated in April, created an informal alliance between the Saudi-led oil cartel Opec and non-Opec producers. As of January, this Opec+ alliance had reduced oil production by 2.1 million barrels per day.

    3. I’m quickly adjusting to teleworking, and not missing my daily commute at all. I doubt that I will ever return to my previous level of gasoline consumption.

      In other words, my personal oil consumption needs are probably going to be permanently lower compared with just two weeks ago. But I’m sure that I am the only American commuter who feels that way…

      1. With world running out of storage, crude oil prices in tailspin
        in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2020

        Global oil prices continue to be in a tailspin amid nationwide lockdowns to stop the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and a deluge of production from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

        With a slowing world economy, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) touched recent record low of $21.51 per barrel on Friday, while the international benchmark Brent traded at $27.95 per barrel, far below the highs of $147 per barrel of July 2008.

        Despite pressures from the Donald Trump administration to reach a compromise with Russia, Saudi Arabia continues with its surplus production targets. Growing concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak and a growing glut from producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have roiled global crude oil markets, with the build-up affecting US shale oil producers. Goldman Sachs expects crude prices to touch the $20 per barrel mark.

        “The current $20/b crude environment is putting roughly 5 million b/d of high-cost crude production at risk of being shut in,” said Rob Stier, senior manager of petrochemical analytics at S&P Global Platts in a statement.

        Experts are of the opinion that global oil demand for the March-April period could come down by around 10 million barrels per day (mbpd). This is significant as the daily global demand was around 101 mbpd.

        With the world running out of place to store surplus oil, there has been a scramble to book storage capacities on supertankers and even in pipelines.

        “Over the next few months, S&P Global Platts Analytics sees global “massive” crude stock builds of 500 million barrels in its best-case scenario, compared with the 1 billion-barrel build in its worst-case scenario, relative to end-February levels,” Rob Stier added.

        The unprecedented rout has turned the oil market on its head, with major energy-consuming economies recalibrating their sourcing strategy against the backdrop of growing concerns over a deep global recession. Chinese oil giants are also keen to offload their share of so-called equity oil to Indian refiners as the viral outbreak has squeezed demand in their home market.

        However, Indian refiners have also slashed their production due to the transportation fuel demand shrinking with citizens cooped indoors, though there has been an increase in the demand for domestic cooking gas against the backdrop of the three-week nationwide lockdown in the world’s largest such exercise aimed at stemming the spread of the virus.

        “Over the longer term, the global response to COVID-19 could have significant structural effects on mobility patterns around the world. A key variable will be to what extent the remote working patterns established in the response period will become entrenched in the future,” IHS Markit said in a report.

        1. The Financial Times
          Commodities
          US crude oil price falls below $20
          Fall in demand due to virus creates surplus that could overwhelm storage capacity within weeks
          © AFP via Getty Images
          David Sheppard in London an hour ago

          US crude oil prices fell below $20 a barrel shortly after trading reopened on Sunday, close to the lowest level in 18 years, as traders bet production will need to shut to cope with the collapse in demand from the coronavirus pandemic.

          The US benchmark, known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, hit a low of $19.92 a barrel, losing more than 6 per cent.

          Brent, the international benchmark, lost 6 per cent to hit a low of $23.03 a barrel, the lowest since 2002.

          WTI briefly traded below $20 a barrel earlier this month as the April contract expired, dipping violently in thin trading. But this is the first time WTI has traded sub-$20 a barrel since 2002 in normal trading conditions.

      2. I doubt that I will ever return to my previous level of gasoline consumption.

        I permanently changed my driving habits after the price spike in 2007-2008. Never before had I planned my trips to stores, etc. I was able to cut my consumption by over 50%, and it’s been permanent.

  16. Trumpy’$ gonna $how “Czar” Putain who$e thee Bo$$!
    $cram, “We’ll take$ the monie$ & thee oil!”

    WORLD NEW$ /MARCH 28, 2020

    Ro$neft $ells Venezuelan a$$ets to Ru$$ia after U.$. $anctions ramp$ up

    Reuters / By Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Olesya Astakhova

    The change of owner$hip announced on Saturday means any future U.S. $anctions on Ru$$ian-controlled oil operation$ in Venezuela would target the Russian government directly.

    Russia, via the state company Rosneftegaz, owns slightly over 50% of Kremlin-controlled Rosneft’s capital. International shareholders include BP (BP.L), which has 19.75%, and Qatar via QH Oil Investments LLC, which owns another 18.93%.By withdrawing from Venezuela and passing its assets to an entity owned by Moscow, Rosneft, headed by Igor Sechin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, tran$fers the ri$ks related to its Venezuelan operation$ to the Ru$$ian government.

    The U.S. State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

  17. I have been following the Portland, Oregon housing market since we have moved here 5 years ago. We’ve rented the same house the whole time in one of the suburbs.

    From what I have observed, I’m seeing lots of shacks back on the market after going pending. Sometimes on multiple occasions. I’m guessing people got scared and backed out or their ninja 0 down financing fell through. Lots of folks who bought in 2019 are putting their houses on the market. I’m guessing they bought with low or no down payments so they were underwater to begin with with no bottom in sight. With FHA (deep subprime) and non-qualified financing (deep deep subprime) drying up, the next shoe to drop will be Fannie and Freddie increasing LTV and DTI requirements. Non-bank lenders are going down the toilet with the banks going down on the next flush.

    What I’ve concluded in Portland is that it’s much more restrictive to rent than buy homes. The rental requirements for the best properties are pretty simple—usually 3 times monthly income (sometimes 2.5 times), 660 credit score, no or limited criminal background. To own, you can practically borrow as much money as you want, and the poorer you are, the more money people will grant you for a down payment.

    1. ‘the next shoe to drop will be Fannie and Freddie increasing LTV and DTI requirements’

      I listen in to the AEI conference calls and this has been happening since Mel Watt got run off. Even FHA has been pulling back. The first article above shows that lenders got spooked with the CCP virus and are now tightening more than the official guidelines. They were all risk layering, so there are a lot of levers being pulled. Credit scores, etc. The article the other day about subprime told about a woman who got a loan even though she was recently out of a job!

      1. Good point. I haven’t listened to the AEI conference calls for a couple of years but still periodically check out housingrisk.org. Will be interesting to see what the housing risk index will be.

      2. “The article the other day about subprime told about a woman who got a loan even though she was recently out of a job!”

        It makes no sense for a qualified buyer with a decent credit score to compete for owner occupied housing when people with no income or credit are handed out massive loans like candy.

        It’s no different now than it was in 2007, including the denial.

    2. “…I’m seeing lots of shacks back on the market after going pending. Sometimes on multiple occasions….”

      Ditto here in SoCal (Irvine).

      Whats interesting, many of the re-lists are >>2mm$.

      What that tells me is that a many potential buyers are pushing the limit to qualify, and have little/no cash headroom.

      Amazing that so many people would push themselves to the financial limit to own such expensive properties.

      Wait until they get that first property tax bill, insurance costs (especially fire and liability), and discover maintenance costs on one of these monsters.

      But this is SoCal Orange County, where the fake rich are the norm.

      1. Whats interesting, many of the re-lists are >>2mm

        At 3% interest the monthly nut would be about $8000. Plus property tax and insurance, so about $10,000 a month.

        How many people, even in Orange County, can afford that?

        1. ‘How many people, even in Orange County, can afford that?’

          Or even Sedona! Something like 20% of the shacks in that town are short-term rentals. And there’s two industries: buying/selling shacks and tourism.

          Oh dear…

          1. Eddie Maddock: To Buy or Not To Buy
            sedona times / March 27, 2020 / 27 Comments

            SedonaEye.com columnist Eddie Maddock reports on the Sedona closed to the public March 24, 2020 City Council Meeting.

            Sedona AZ – Due to the prevailing COVID-19 pandemic mandate requiring individuals to remain socially distanced by at least ten feet, the Sedona City Council meeting on March 24, 2020 was, perhaps as an understatement, peculiar if not downright eerie. In center seat at the dais as usual was Mayor Sandy Moriarty flanked by City Councilwoman Jessica Williams in her typical end seat far to the Mayor’s left and Councilman John Currivan seated at the opposite end. Vice Mayor John Martinez and remaining Council members, Bill Chisholm and Scott Jablow, were strategically located in seats generally occupied by Sedona residents. At the onset of the meeting Mayor Moriarty acknowledged that in conforming to the proclamation of March 18, 2020, this City Council Meeting would not be open to the public in compliance with Coronavirus restrictions.

            In order to address some public concerns, Councilman Currivan made the request for more discussion relating to consent agenda AB 2570 – Approval of a Resolution authorizing a Real Estate Purchase and Sale Agreement for the City of Sedona to purchase the property located at 430 Forest Road (APN 401-160-71) located in Coconino County, City of Sedona, Arizona, for the sum of $480,000 for use as a parking structure. Specifically he cited concerns relating to a possible scope of unknown results, particularly with regard to the potential for economic decline and even a recession.

            With current lodging occupancy dropping 70% to 75%, essentially shuttered restaurants except for takeout or delivery and other businesses slipping toward the brink of closing and, with Sedona’s primary source of revenue, its sales tax obviously in jeopardy, wasn’t Councilman Currivan’s question exceptionally timely and appropriate?

    3. ORDER OF BlAME- for the parasite virus called C-19:

      (1) Life itself is to blame. The virus has been around since life itself looking for a host to hijack The virus has plauged humans from the beginning of evidence of civilizations.

      (2) CHINA- China could of contained the virus, but instead China sought to cover up the new virus. This resulted in the virus spread World wide.

      (3) Health Care systems were not prepared for a pandemic in terms of supplies or manpower. These were the choices made by local Government and Insurance Companies, and society. Greedy for profit entities didn’t want to invest in possible outbreaks because there wasn’t profit in preparing. This is in spite of evidence of a decade of flu killing a lot of people yearly. Big Pharma was not putting big money into research and development for this sort of health threat.

      Note: instead of even talking about this health threat, the bogus CLIMATE CHANGE narrative was marketed as the evil we needed to prepare for and change our society over.

      Well, the climate changers got their shut down
      of airplanes, how do they like it now?

      (4) Commie health care systems that can’t handle pandemic like Italy. Poor health care systems like Africa that already have problems with clean water etc.

      (5) The inherent fact that high population cities with mass transit would be a hotbed for virus, therefore they should of allowed more funds toward potential pandemics

      (6) To much taxpayer bucks put towards paying for ilegals leaving to little funds when a real emergency comes.

      (7) Globalism and Casino markets with faulty lending and Fed policy that put people in bad spot for weathering any storm or Black Swan event, requiring a bail out.

      (8) The public accepting being screwed by Politicians for decades now and not voting these traitors and liars, Commies and Globalist out. Dumb shits that would rather be politically correct than self protective . No doubt mass brainwashing.

      (9) Fake news. Again, the brainwashing of people by fake news so special interest groups like Globalist, Commies, the Elite, the one percent and the greedheads and bubble speculators can keep their gravy trains coming, at the expense of the greater population. These groups should be higher up on the list because there has always been great evil that can be traced to the Power Brokers calling the shots.

      Ok, I could go on and on but I’m just trying to make a point about the blame. Of course the Dems are trying to transfer blame to Trump for any deaths right now while taking the heat off themselves.

      It does deserve a mention that on a yearly basis people die, especially seniors. Just a fact of life.

  18. Morning fellow HBB’rs.

    I barely have time to read the boards right now – working up against an end of the month deadline. But I did take a break and notice this thread on reddit yesterday:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/fqqqyy/new_listings_suddenly_hitting_the_market_at/

    Been keeping an eye on houses in the city we’re moving to and tons of new listings have been added in the past week. They’re all priced higher than comps and have horrible pictures like they were rushed to be listed. Anyone notice something similar in their city?

    Sounds like a lot of shacks being rushed on the market with musical-chairs-stopping wishing prices. AirBnB inventory? People HELOCed to the Maxx? Panicked Flippers?

    Can you taste the panic?

    1. “Can you ta$te the panic?”

      MGSpiffy, it’s been reported that the 👾 … xaoh.knob.handle.deeth.germ$ can make the sense.of.ta$te di$appear!

      What.a.bummer! 🍫🍇🍷

    2. New listings

      I noticed a fair number of Fannie Mae loans in Florida were listed as back on the market.

      also, lots of “active” houses relative to pendings. Florida appears to be down in Sales Pending and up in Active/back on Markets in Fannie Mae’s portfolio.

  19. In other news, Mrs. Spiffy is doing better – lots of sleep seems to have been the best medicine.

    We’ve gone out for walks when the weather has permitted and there are way too many people who DGAF about Social Distancing and will smash through other people’s personal space without even looking. Had to give up walking through Ellis Pond, as the trails are too narrow to avoid the entitled old fu*ks shoving people out of the way. Already had at least 1 death and 35+ confirmed here on the island, and I can see why.

    I went out for the first time in 2 weeks to the south-end grocery store and as I was checking out, I heard one of the employees (who I always chat with about gaming) catching up on the store news with the checker. As I was being totaled up (self-checkout closed) he said “oh, so-and-so has (bad) pneumonia” like it was no big deal.

    Ok, enough venting for this hour about people not taking it seriously.

    1. ‘venting for this hour about people not taking it seriously’

      This is a point about the current situation. Hoarding indicates some amount of hysteria. You are near a lot of cases, I’m not. As I watched the behavior, I started to pick through what was hysteria and what wasn’t – from my point of view. I posted about “risk selection bias”, where people try to eliminate one risk (not being able to wipe their a$$es, hoarding toilet paper, for example) rather than address the larger risk. We’re seeing a lot of scolding on this or that. That’s what I would consider an aspect of hysteria. What are larger risks? Not much venting about all the business being put down. And we’ve seen the media playing up worst case scenarios. What’s their purpose in doing that?

      What I’m getting at is perhaps this virus risk has been exaggerated. I take every flu season seriously. But I don’t sit home for weeks. Much of the world is shutdown, yet we see new cases. Italy and Spain have or had skyrocketing deaths. I’ve read much of that was due to under investment in acute care beds compared to neighboring countries. Madrid and Catalonia had just 600 beds when this thing hit. They have people sitting in wheelchairs for days, sick. The US has the most acute care beds per capita in the world. One of the reasons this thing spread so badly was we had hundreds of flights coming in from Wuhan.

      It’s important at times like this to see things for what they are. There is fear of the invisible. It’s a perfect atmosphere to create panic. But panic is exactly what we shouldn’t do. For myself I’m not afeared. We’ve got mid-80’s temperatures coming in Arizona this week. That always knocks the flu season down, so I hope we can end the shutdown soon and save some businesses for post-corona virus. That’s my two cents.

      1. I’d read the other day that ERs in Northern Italy were at 98% capacity before the virus even hit.

        1. COVID-19 will be a long-overdue wake up call for local and state governments that they need to bolster their own capabilities to deal with public health crises, and promote resilience instead of dependency (sorry, Democrats) among the population.

          1. Oh, I’m anticipating an announcement at any moment of a Pandemic Defense Corps or some such alphabet jumble to form. There’s probably a team feverishly working on one with a snappy name and attending acronym.

      2. Dis.information can cause panic

        “Alernate.Non.facts” can cause panic

        📣🎙”it’s just the common.cold folks!” … to x10’s of millions of “True.Believers” folks can cause “diminished.awareness” of a dangerous situation & AMPLIFY that very danger.

        Eye’m knot afearin’ either.

        Eye’m knot anxious nor panicky

        Eye’s “believe’s” this 👾 xaoh.knob.handle.deeth.germs is a killa!

        The LIE is it’s “a common.cold!”
        The LIE is it’s just “the.flu!”

        “avoidance”: is simple tool/strategy to utilize (for myself, ain’t eye a “lucky” one! retired&all)

        Knot so easy for my 12th grader son.

        Knot so easy for x100 of 100 millions of “good citizens” in “all.places”

        That’s the i$$ue with MA$$ Tran$portation, it’$ exi$tence is created for MA$$ #’$ of two.legged$ mobilitie$ via $ocial interaction$.

        Eye’m sure there’s a cowboy/cowgirl 🏕up on “Broke.back.Mountain” in Wyoming lookin’ @ the sliver of a moon, tendin’ their “doggies” knot a fearin’ the 👾, sweatin’ only a unseen snow.flake🦄 or hungry realtor or ol’ mean grizz.

        That’s my spoken.feather

      3. I happen to agree with your two cents right above me Ben Jones.

        The fact that they have these big boards montering the lastest count of a case of flu on the news is making panic. It reminds me of the way they cover elections.

        The big World map on the news with all the red spots reminds you of a movie where everybody gets nuked .

        After Russian hoax, impeachment and non stop Resistance by the Dems party, now they are saying Trump is responsible for any death that takes place by the flu.

        I don’t think anything can make Biden a electable President , the man is senile.
        You judge a party sometimes by who they hold up as their best. So, the choice of Biden means that party is mindless, corrupt, just want a puppet riding on past steam not relevant to real life, lacking any priority to perceive USA needs.

          1. “If you have a 20 year old and ten 80 year olds hospitalized, the median age is about 50 I think.”

            No, the median age would be 80.

        1. “You judge a party sometimes by who they hold up as their best.”

          repubicans: Kneel, 🙏 🍊.jesus 💖

        2. I don’t think anything can make Biden a electable President , the man is senile.

          That tells me the DNC prefers Trump to Sanders.

      4. “so I hope we can end the shutdown soon and save some businesses for post-corona virus.

        Hear, hear

  20. What doe$ the “Landy.lord$” $ay when YOU hit$ a payment $nag:

    “mu$t $uck.to.bee.you.” pay up or $cram!

    … well, turn$ about$ $eem$ like “fair.play”!

    RETAIL$
    U$ mall owner Taubman is telling tenant$ they mu$t pay rent$ amid coronaviru$

    CNBC / By Lauren Thomas / SUN, MAR 29 2020

    KEY POINT$:

    U.S. mall owner Taubman is telling its tenants that they must pay rent amid the coronaviru$ pandemic.

    It says it still has its own obligation$ to meet, such as paying lender$ on mortgage$ and paying for utilitie$.

    Notably, earlier this week, The Cheesecake Factory said it will not be paying rent in April.

    “The rental income that we receive from tenants is essential in order to meet these obligations,” Taubman said. “All tenants will be expected to meet their lease obligations.” (See the full memo below.)

    Notably, earlier this week, national restaurant chain The Cheesecake Factory said it will not be paying rent in April, as its shops remain shut to the public because of COVID-19. It has 294 locations across North America, many of which are in enclosed shopping malls. Cheesecake Factory also is furloughing roughly 41,000 hourly workers.

    “We are in various stages of discussions with our landlords regarding ongoing rent obligations, including the potential deferral, abatement and/or restructuring of rent otherwise payable during the period of the COVID-19 related closure,” Cheesecake Factory said in an SEC filing.

    Real estate analysts tell CNBC that Cheesecake Factory’s decision — to forego making rent payments — will likely set a precedent for other restaurant operators and retailers to follow suit. Many have been in talks, CNBC previously reported, over what to do about paying these bills. The consequences of still having to pay rent on a location that is not in business could deal a huge blow to some retailers that are already strained for cash.

    But landlords, such as Taubman, are also still on the hook, even if their malls are entirely shut down for the time being. Many of them have properties backed by mortgages that must be paid on.

    “I have no idea where this is going to shake out,” Vince Tibone, a lead retail analyst at commercial real estate services firm Green Street Advisors, said in an interview. But landlords and tenants will end up “sharing the burden,” in some way, he said.

    Taubman announced earlier this month that all of its properties will be closed through at least the end of March, except for two centers, which are open-air. The announcement by Taubman came a day after its larger rival, Simon, said it was shutting all of its malls and outlet centers temporarily, to try to help halt the spread of COVID-19.

    Simon in February said it would be acquiring Taubman, in a deal valued at $3.6 billion. The transaction is still expected to close in 2020.

    “We are attempting to navigate through this situation in the best way we can, while being as flexible as we can with our tenants in light of our ongoing obligations,” a Taubman spokeswoman told CNBC in an emailed statement on Sunday.

    “The tenant memo does not replace our willingness to talk to each tenant about their respective challenges and help them chart an appropriate course for the future,” she said. “In fact, we’ve had numerous calls with our long-standing tenants and most fully understand our position as it is a challenging time for all involved. Naturally, the environment is much harder for smaller, less-established temporary occupants that may only be operating in one center.”

    “Landlord’s obligation to pay its lenders, utility companies, insurance companies and the like, to ensure the safety and security of the building and maintain the appropriate level of operations, remains. The rental income that we receive from Tenants is essential in order to meet these obligations. All Tenants will be expected to meet their Lease obligations. Further, Tenants are encouraged to look to their business interruption insurance policies to assist in making the Tenant whole.”

    Landlord’$ obligation to pay its lender$, utility companie$, in$urance companie$ and the like, to ensure the safety and security of the building and maintain the appropriate level of operations, remains. The rental income that we receive from Tenant$ is e$$ential in order to meet these obligation$. All Tenant$ will be expected to meet their Lea$e obligation$. Further, Tenants are encouraged to look to their business interruption insurance policies … to a$$ist in making the Tenant whole.

  21. “U.S. mall owner Taubman is telling its tenants that they must pay rent amid the coronaviru$ pandemic. It says it still has its own obligation$ to meet, such as paying lender$ on mortgage$ and paying for utilitie$.”

    Congress could have made an effort to modify the contracts clause of the constitution, essentially freezing contracts like these during shut-downs due to epidemics. If you are shut for six months, you don’t have to pay for six months, because it is as if those six months didn’t exist. But the contract is six months longer.

    But that would mean people around today would end up paying for it, instead of just people around in the future.

    1. I can recall the impact from the OPEC crisis as parcel delivery services, automotive businesses, air travel, etc., anything connected to needing fuel, which skyrocketed in price, were going out of business every week, it seemed. Leases and rent payments were expected, or get out so that a paying customer could move in and get established. Housewives began entering the workforce in greater numbers. Very brutal times!

  22. Maybee the results would have been the same iffin’ he only had caught the Ra$h.limbaugh$ “commom.cold folk$” … maybee

    Former Saints QB Bobby Hebert’s father dies from COVID-19

    Vincent Frank, Sportsnaut 22 hrs ago

    Unfortunately, this pandemic has hit one former NFL player pretty hard. The father of former quarterback Bobby Hebert has died from COVID-19 at the age of 81, per Nola.com.

    Hebert Jr. just recently opened up about his father, Bobby Hebert Sr., battling the illness:

    “He’s tough. You can be tough and the virus can overwhelm you, but I know he’s a fighter. He’s fighting, he’s trying to hang in there. They’re giving him oxygen, he’s breathing and he’s trying to fight through it.”

    COVID-19 has hit the elderly especially hard during these trying times. The state of Louisiana is also expected to be the next epicenter of COVID-19. As of Saturday, 3,315 people have tested positive with 137 deaths in the state.

  23. The Financial Times
    Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
    Live
    Coronavirus latest: UK could take more than 6 months to get ‘back to normal’

    Global death toll passes 30,000 as infections rise to more than 665,000. Spread of virus slows in Spain. South Africa weighs approaching IMF for support
    – Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spread
    – No room for bullshit in the time of coronavirus
    – The ventilator challenge will test ingenuity to the limit
    George Russell, Amy O’Brien, Myles McCormick, Alice Hearing, Peter Wells 4 minutes ago

    Be the first to know about every new Coronavirus story
    Peter Wells 4 minutes ago

    Global coronavirus cases exceed 700,000

    Steve Bernard in London

    The total number of cases worldwide has surpassed 700,000 on Sunday as an additional 44,279 people were confirmed to have contracted coronavirus.

    The US has so far added 9,516 cases in the past day to about 133,000, with 21 states still to report their numbers.
    Peter Wells 31 minutes ago

    Moscow to impose full quarantine upon residents from Monday

    Henry Foy in Moscow

    Moscow’s mayor has ordered a full quarantine of citizens from Monday, banning all residents from leaving their homes except for absolute necessities.

    People will be permitted to leave their homes for “requests for urgent medical aid and any other direct threat to the life and health; trips to your workplace, if you must go to work; making purchases at the nearest opened shop or pharmacy,” Sergei Sobyanin said in a statement on Sunday evening.

    Citizens would also be permitted to walk their pets up to 100m from their front door and drop household garbage in bins.

    Russia’s rate of coronavirus infections has soared over the past week, forcing authorities who had previously played down the threat from the virus to crack down on free movement of people.

    A “smart system of control” to ensure people obey the rules would be deployed “within the next week,” Mr Sobyanin added without providing details.

    Russia’s government has used facial recognition cameras to detect people breaking quarantine in the past and called on mobile operators to help build a system to track people by their telephones.
    Peter Wells 53 minutes ago

    Ireland reports a further 10 deaths from Covid-19

    Arthur Beesley in Dublin

    Dublin has reported 10 further coronavirus deaths on Sunday evening, taking the total number of fatalities to 46 as 200 new cases brought the overall number in the Irish republic to 2,615.

    In Northern Ireland the authorities reported six new deaths, the highest yet in a single day, bringing the total to 21. There were 86 new coronavirus cases in the region, with the total now at 410.
    Peter Wells an hour ago

    Signs of slowdown in countries’ death rates

    Steve Bernard in London

    Earlier we posted a chart showing the rate of growth of cases in countries is starting to slow. The same also looks to be true with deaths.

    Among countries with more than 100 deaths, this slowing down is most visible in Spain, which two weeks ago had a growth rate above 50 per cent per day on average, and has seen this number fall to about 20 per cent.
    Myles McCormick 2 hours ago

    New York fatalities climb towards 1,000

    Joshua Chaffin in New York

    New York recorded an additional 237 coronavirus deaths over the last 24 hours, bringing the state’s total to 965.

    Governor Andrew Cuomo reported some progress in the rate of hospitalisations, a key metric as New York — the US epicentre for the pandemic — scrambles to try to keep its healthcare system form being overwhelmed by the virus.

    The rate of hospitalisations had been doubling every two days. While still growing, it now appears to be doubling every six days. “The doubling rate is slowing. That is good news,” the governor said on Sunday.

    Still, he predicted “thousands” of fatalities for the state. Altogether, New York’s Coronavirus caseload has risen to 59,513, with 32,308 in New York City.

    Governor Cuomo reported that neighbouring Rhode Island has repealed an order to have its police stop all cars with New York licence plates as part of an effort to prevent the virus from spreading across the border.

    He said he discussed the policy with his Rhode Island counterpart, Gina Raimondo. “I don’t think the order was called for. I don’t think it was legal. I don’t think it was neighbourly,” he said on Sunday.
    Myles McCormick 2 hours ago

    1. “New York fatalities climb towards 1,000”

      This pandemic won’t be accused of being a ‘quiet killer.’

      The last pandemic was a ‘quiet killer.’ Ten years after swine flu, no one can predict the next one

      By HELEN BRANSWELL
      JUNE 11, 2019

      Since it started circulating in the spring of 2009, H1N1 has infected about 100 million Americans, killing about 75,000 and sending 936,000 to the hospital, the CDC estimates.

      https://www.statnews.com/2019/06/11/h1n1-swine-flu-10-years-later/

      1. The Financial Times
        Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
        Coronavirus
        Senior official warns of up to 200,000 US coronavirus deaths
        Anthony Fauci’s bleak assessment comes as states run low on critical medical equipment
        Mercedes Flores of the National Guard holds up a sign for patients driving through a coronavirus disease testing site at Kean University in Union, New Jersey
        © via REUTERS
        Kiran Stacey in Washington 3 hours ago

        Between 100,000 and 200,000 people in America could die as a result of coronavirus, one of the doctors leading the US response has warned, after a weekend on which the global death toll surpassed 30,000.

        The US death toll climbed above 2,000 over the weekend, with local politicians warning they are fast running out of medical equipment. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that the disease was starting to spread quickly in cities other than New York, the epicentre of the American outbreak. “We are going to be seeing places like Detroit and other places getting into trouble,” he told CNN on Sunday.

        “I expect 100,000 to 200,000 deaths and we are going to see millions of cases.”

        New York state reported another jump in fatalities over the weekend, with 965 people having died as of Sunday — up from 518 just 48 hours earlier.

        1. “I expect 100,000 to 200,000 deaths”

          Didn’t you post the same prediction by somebody else last week?

  24. $urprise!, $urprise!, $urprise! Mr. Carter!

    (Who’$ gonna maintain the $quirrel feeder$?)

    Coronaviru$ economy: California real e$tate $ale$ now deemed ‘e$$ential’ indu$try

    OC Register / By Jonathan Lansner / 1 day ago

    The real estate industry, struggling with coronavirus-linked limitations, got a boost with its sales business reclassified as an “essential” industry.

    The California Association of Realtors said Saturday, March 28, that commercial and residential real estate services were included on an updated list of essential services from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

    The association’s advisory noted the challenges present by the virus: “Notwithstanding this new development, all real estate licensees must take into account the health and safety of their clients and fellow licensees, and follow the existing protocols for protecting against the spread of COVID-19. If such health safeguards and protocols are not followed, the rule for the state could easily change to stop or restrict all real estate activity.”

  25. Wall said she took out the cash value on one of her life insurance policies – around $16,000 – to avoid foreclosure on her properties.”
    I don’t know why but I just love seeing the AIRBNB crowd get burnt!

    Bank Risk relative to 2008-2011
    I know most large banks were “light” on FHA loans after the bubble burnt them.
    In fact some banks, like the one I used to work at, did not do FHAs for years after the pop.
    Not sure if they started doing them after I left.

    1. This “save the seniors” BS is getting a little absurd. Seniors have been dying for years now in huge numbers by this or that virus.

      Seniors should protect themselves around flu time.
      As a senior I don’t expect the whole world to shut down because seniors are higher risk. Nursing homes maybe should have higher standards but those elderly are always high risk for anything. Not a very high quality life being in a nursing home and I hope I don’t end up in a prison like that some day.

      Also ,people don’t talk about the higher risk of catching a bug at the hospital where the germs are. Also, the Doctors office has the bugs

      Actually, I’m more concerned about a virus that kills the young and vital that might come along. That being said, as a senior I’m washing my hands and protecting myself, as anybody should.

  26. Now, she has to figure out how to pay for a dozen mortgages with few or no guests.”

    Or she can declare bankruptcy and let those dwellings go to foreclosure auctions, emerging as reasonably priced apartments for long-term tenants like they were before the speculators got involved.

    1. “reasonably priced apartments for long-term tenants”

      This. More of this. Alot more of this.

    2. I’ve read several economists today sounding the “asset deflation” alarm, that it must be stopped at any cost, or the earth’s orbit will decay drawing us into the sun’s fiery hell.

      1. Asset HODLers are sounding the doom alarms on full blast, for fear of losing their ASSEtS.

  27. And when will they stop using the ‘peel and stick’ fake rock, or even worse, brick applied over the lower 2 feet of house and foundation where it can create water problems and future rot?

    A fitting analogy for the fake “greatest economy ever” created by Fed funny money and binging on cheap debt that will never be repaid.

  28. 1) October 4, 2019
    We Call It The Real Estate Casino
    The federal government has dramatically expanded its exposure to risky mortgages. In 2019, there is more government-backed housing debt than at any other point in U.S. history, according to the Urban Institute. A growing number of homeowners faces debt payments that amount to nearly half of their monthly income. [There’s that 50% DTI thingy again…]

    “‘There is a point here where, in an effort to create access to homeownership, you may actually be doing it in a manner that isn’t sustainable and it’s putting more people at risk,’ said David Stevens, a former commissioner of the Federal Housing Administration. ‘Competition, particularly in certain market conditions, can lead to a false narrative, like ‘housing will never go down’ or ‘you will never lose on mortgages.’”

    2) A report from Housing Wire.
    [ March 27, 2020, 4:19 pm By Ben Lane]
    “Scuttlebutt in the mortgage industry over the last few days pointed to lenders raising their FHA requirements, and that’s just what appears to be happening. In fact, it seems that many lenders are raising their minimum FICO scores for FHA loans to as high as 660, which would prevent a large section of borrowers from accessing an FHA loan. For lenders and the secondary market, it’s all about pricing the risk. They don’t want to lend to super-risky borrowers because those borrowers are far more likely to default on their loans and the lenders and investors would end up losing a lot of money per loan.

    – What a difference a day makes.
    – How does the 2019 article not describe late-stage housing bubble expansion, with increasing risk-taking behavior (by our government and its proxies) to attempt to “keep the game going” just a little longer? It was OK as the bubble expanded, I guess.
    – How does the 2020 article not describe it’s aftermath of tightening lending standards/credit, FICO scores, etc.? It’s NOT OK on the way down, I guess.
    – How is this not a hard evidence of another housing bubble (housing bubble 2.0), both on the way up, and on the way down?
    – Wasn’t Dodd-Frank supposed to be something like Glass-Steagall Act. How about the Senator Running Deer and the CFPB? What about Naomi? Can we have another Pecora Commission, please?
    – Don’t let anyone tell you that history doesn’t repeat, or rhyme.
    – We are so screwed this time because now the numbers are an order of magnitude bigger than 10 years ago (i.e. $Ts vs. $Bs).

    – Stay healthy and be safe out there.

  29. Is eight to ten weeks the new COVID-19 outbreak duration outlook?

    Treasury Secretary says Americans can expect stimulus checks to be direct deposited within 3 weeks
    By Kristen Holmes, CNN White House Correspondent
    Updated 11:47 AM ET, Sun March 29, 2020

    Mnuchin noted that his “number one objective is now delivering to the American workers and American companies the needed money that will put this economy in a position where it get through the next eight to 10 weeks.”

    1. “Mnuchin noted that his “number one objective is now delivering to the (1) American workers companies [incuding hedge funds, investment banks, and any company that make large purchases of their own stocks via share buybacks] and (2) American companies workers the needed money that will put this economy in a position where it get through the next eight to 10 weeks.” [in that order]

      -RE: $6T stimulus bill.

      – As was the case the last time, but with larger numbers this time, the 1% get bailed out with $T’s, while the 99% get $1000 each. per adult. It will be tough to live on $1K bucks for 10 weeks for many/most, IMHO.

      – Some math on this:
      Approx. 350M American citizens, assuming all are adults=3.5e8
      $1000=1e3
      3.5e8*1e3=3.5e11=$350B=$0.35T
      $0.35T/$6T=5.8%

      So 99% of Americans are going to receive a one-time payment of $1000 per person (adults), which is less than (<) 6% of the "stimulus" monies. Whom does Congress really represent, when the 1% are going to receive ~94.2% of these funds (rhetorical)? Does Congress have your back?

      – Let's be frank. This is just another bailout by any other name, with <6% going to appease the masses in an attempt to prevent civil unrest. Let's see how this plays out over the next couple of years. Remember that the $1000 is a one time payment only, and yet we’re still under lock-down, and probably will be for at least a couple of more months. Over 3M weekly unemployment claims were filed this week. This is only the beginning.

      – Note that the global economy was already slowing prior to the pandemic, which only accelerated to downturn. The current economic contraction was “baked into the cake” due to over ten years of stimulus and money printing since the last downturn, which created “The Everything Bubble.” (Asset) bubbles always pop. It’s not different this time. Yes, housing is part of this greater bubble.

      “We’re essentially continuing a system where profits are privatized and…losses socialized,” – Nouriel Roubini

      “When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.” – Frederic Bastiat

      “The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks.” – Lord Acton

      1. “Whom does Congre$$ really repre$ent, when the 1% are going to receive ~94.2% of these fund$”

        Does the approval$ of this legi$lation fund$ 📝require the $ignature 🖍of thee.🍊.jesus?

      2. It will be tough to live on $1K bucks for 10 weeks for many/most, IMHO.

        FWIW, the maximum weekly unemployment benefit is about $1100. Still, small potatoes compared to the corp bail outs.

        1. Thanks BHW. There are many posters and head honcho blogger here that are more savvy and knowledgeable than me about the housing market. I think we all complement each other. Everyone brings a unique perspective, point of view, and useful info. to the table here that’s completely missing from the MSM and many other venues. This blog is kind of like a town hall meeting that never happens anymore, even prior to the virus. Let’s continue to “keep it real.”

          1. Yep, this has always been a great blog going back for years.

            I found this blog way back in 2005 by accident one day. Back in those days people on the blog were trying to warn people of the upcoming real estate crash and the fraud in lending, etc

            Anyway, your right that’s it’s like a town hall. I like everybody.

      3. “…we’re still under lock-down, and probably will be for at least a couple of more months.”

        The tidal wave of “doubling infections” will have swept through the country by the end of April. I expect that protective measures like N95 masks and gloves at the grocery store will linger, but the worst will be behind us. Maintaining social order will be the next challenge since lacking any real savings many Americans will lose everything material and likely their dignity too.

    2. “position where it get through the next eight to 10 weeks“

      Guess the kiddos wont be going back to school until after summer

      1. Guess the kiddos wont be going back to school until after summer

        if predictions of a second wave come true, they might not be heading back to school until next year.

      2. Someone on Nextdoor posted their son’s 3rd grade home school report:

        “It is not going good. My mom’s getting stressed out. My mom is really getting confused. We took a break so my mom can figure this stuff out, and I’m telling you it is not going good.”

        This may be the nail in the coffin for Commie Core.

    3. Trump extends federal social distancing guidelines to April 30
      By Paul LeBlanc, Jason Hoffman and Kevin Liptak, CNN
      Updated 7:38 PM ET, Sun March 29, 2020

      Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump said Sunday he would extend nationwide social distancing guidelines for another 30 days, an abrupt back-down from his push to reopen the country as coronavirus continues to spread.

      The 15-day guidelines Trump announced two weeks ago were set to expire on Monday, and the President had suggested over the past week that he was looking to relax them, at least in some parts of the country. He even floated Easter, on April 12, as a potential date by which the country could return to normal.

      But on Sunday he said he’d decided to extend the guidelines — which include suggested limits on large gatherings — to April 30, a sign his earlier predictions were overly rosy.

      1. a sign his earlier predictions were overly rosy

        “Aspirational.” CNN got an a$$-chewing at that press conference.

        Ugh on April 30. Today’s the first day I’m feeling cabin fever.

    1. Now laid off from her job at an apparel exporter in Hangzhou — one of China’s most prosperous cities — the 23-year-old is missing payments on 12,000 yuan ($1,700) of debt from her credit card and an online lending platform operated by Jack Ma’s Ant Financial. “I’m late on all the bills and there’s no way I can pay my debt in full,” Zhang said.

      Oh, there’s a way, Zhang. But it involves monetizing your assets and considerable moral compromise.

      1. Yes, but a “workout session” is coming.

        There was a chapter called, Saddlebags in Tom Wolfe’s book, ”A Man in Full.” The reference was a debtor’s sweating armpits soiling his shirt during negotiations with his bankers, one of whom wore his “skull and cross bones” suspenders for the occasion.

      1. Our national debt might swiftly collapse along the lines of a binomial distribution. Recall those zombie infections in World War Z with Brad Pitt.

        1. They are piling on trillions more in debt as we type, suggesting that low or negative rates may be the only way to keep it together going forward.

          Of course inflation is another option…

    1. China: qua$i.capitali$t

      USA: qua$i.Capitali$t

      Thee.🍊.jesus = 👑.of.debt💲

      Mnuchin best get$ use to his new title: “acting.$ecretary”

    2. Stimulus bill includes provision essentially merging the Fed and Treasury into one organization

      The Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each acronym to conduct these operations. The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a “first loss” position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.

      In other words, the federal government is nationalizing large swaths of the financial markets. The Fed is providing the money to do it. BlackRock will be doing the trades.

      Sounds like the American people just got hoodwinked.

    1. Hidden Brain
      An Unfinished Lesson: What The 1918 Flu Tells Us About Human Nature
      March 23, 2020 7:05 PM ET
      49-Minute Listen

      SHANKAR VEDANTAM, HOST:

      From NPR, this is HIDDEN BRAIN. I’m Shankar Vedantam. For months, people were afraid. The virus outbreak started out small but then grew exponentially. Within days, every part of the country, every part of the world, was affected. Uncertainty and confusion abounded. Misjudgments about how to fight the pandemic proved catastrophic. All this rings true today, but it was also true a century ago. Almost exactly 100 years ago, a new infectious disease swept the world. My guest this week says the lessons from that outbreak are instructive if we only stop to listen.

      VEDANTAM: Nancy Bristow is a historian at the University of Puget Sound. She’s the author of “American Pandemic: The Lost Worlds Of The 1918 Influenza Epidemic.” Nancy, thank you for joining me today on HIDDEN BRAIN.

      NANCY BRISTOW: Thank you so much.

      VEDANTAM: Give me a sense of the scale of the 1918 pandemic, Nancy.

      BRISTOW: This was a massive event. Inside the United States, more than a quarter of Americans were sickened. By the time the pandemic was through, 675,000 Americans would die, and the estimates vary for the world for somewhere between 50 and 100 million people, and a third of people on the globe were likely infected.

      VEDANTAM: So this was not the first time the country had been affected by an influenza outbreak. What is it that made this strain so dangerous, Nancy?

      BRISTOW: The influenza virus is a very clever virus. It’s constantly changing, drifting through limited but frequent changes in its genetic makeup during the reproduction process. But sometimes, there’s a thing called antigenic shift. It’s a much more dramatic transformation when a single cell hosts two separate and distinct strains of influenza and during the reproduction process recombines those two parental strains into a new hybrid virus, a virus for which no one is prepared. No one has immunity.

      VEDANTAM: So, of course, because the virus sort of strikes with some regularity every year, people have developed some immunity, your point is that when the virus mutates in this fashion, it essentially is striking a naive population.

      BRISTOW: Exactly.

      VEDANTAM: So many people believe the 1918 outbreak in the United States first began at an army camp in Kansas. Tell me about Camp Funston.

      BRISTOW: Well, Camp Funston was one of many places in the United States where American soldiers were training for the First World War. And that spring, they experienced a somewhat unusual example of influenza. And as it traveled through the army camps, a few pathologists noticed that there was something unusual. The postmortem exams of the victims showed a kind of soggy lung, but in general, most Americans didn’t notice it. And this first wave, with its origins in Kansas, would pass the United States almost entirely unnoticed except by a few military epidemiologists.

      1. “called antigenic shift. It’s a much more dramatic transformation when a single cell hosts two separate and distinct strains of influenza and during the reproduction process recombines those two parental strains into a new hybrid virus, a virus for which no one is prepared. No one has immunity”

        👾 … “Howdy partner!” minds iffin’s eye rides along with ya for a spell?

        1. logo
          logo
          Health and Science
          The coronavirus may be deadlier than the 1918 flu: Here’s how it stacks up to other pandemics
          Published Thu, Mar 26 20201:45 PM EDTUpdated Fri, Mar 27 20201:24 AM EDT
          Berkeley Lovelace Jr.
          @BerkeleyJr
          GP: coronavirus Italy medical workers
          Medical workers stretch a patient from an Italian Red Cross ambulance into an intensive care unit set up in a sports center outside the San Raffaele hospital in Milan, on March 23, 2020 during the COVID-19 new coronavirus pandemic.
          Miguel Medina | AFP | Getty Images

          Three months after the coronavirus emerged in China, it has quickly spread to nearly half a million people across the globe, killing more than 22,000 people and bringing the world economy to a near-grinding halt.

          Some scientists estimate that millions will ultimately die before COVID-19 runs its course. There’s a lot that infectious disease specialists and scientists still don’t know about the virus. Exactly how deadly and contagious COVID-19 is, is still a matter of debate.

          We break down what we know about the virus and how it compares with some of history’s deadliest pandemics and diseases. First, you’ll have to bone up on a bit of epidemiology.
          Chart: Coronavirus breakdown 200327
          “COVID-19

          R naught (a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is): 2
          Mortality rate: 4.5% (this number is in flux)
          World population: 7.8 billion”

        2. “The current global mortality rate now stands at around 4.5%, which is calculated by dividing the 22,295 deaths by the 495,086 confirmed cases as of Thursday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Most scientists agree the mortality rate will fall by the time the disease runs its course.”

          I believe the logic here is that those who are getting tested are more likely to have COVID-19 than those not getting tested, and also will die at higher rates. If you could identify all the untested mild cases in the population, you would establish a much higher case rate. But you would also detect a lower mortality rate among those mild cases. Averaging these in with those already tested would reduce the overall estimate of the case fatality rate.

        3. The mortality rate is also very high, somewhere between 2 and 2 1/2%.

          Sure. What’s in the denominator actually matters, more than the “math”.

          If you put the population of the US in the denominator the mortality rate is 0.000007. Of course, the year is young.

          1. Are you at least satisfied that I changed my percentage calculation notation in response to your nonstop drum beat?

      2. According to the NPR story, there were three waves, with the middle wave the deadliest, and the third wave unexpected.

    1. My lease is up for renewal at the end of May. I’ve never been late paying rent since I’ve lived here. I may ask to sign a 24 month renewal lease at my current rate.

      REALTOR, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

  30. Knuckled headed scientists? … or … Ra$h.limpbaugh$?

    Decisions, decisions …

    A patient in Italy receives intensive care for COVID-19. Human geneticists are coming together to look for genes that make some people more vulnerable to the disease.

    How sick will the coronavirus make you? The answer may be in your genes

    Science / By Jocelyn Kaiser / Mar. 27, 2020

    COVID-19, caused by the new pandemic coronaviru$, is strangely—and tragically—selective. Only some infected people get sick, and although most of the critically ill are elderly or have complicating problems such as heart disease, some killed by the disease are previously healthy and even relatively young. Researchers are now gearing up to scour the patients’ genomes for DNA variations that explain this mystery. The findings could be used to identify those most at risk of serious illness and those who might be protected, and they might also guide the search for new treatments.

    Another effort to identify protective or susceptibility DNA variants is the Personal Genome Project led by Harvard University’s George Church, which recruits people willing to share their full genome, tissue samples, and health data for research. Earlier this month, it sent questionnaires to its thousands of participants, asking about their COVID-19 status. More than 600 in the United States responded within 48 hours. “It seems that most people want to do their part,” says Church, whose group isn’t yet part of Ganna’s collaboration.

  31. Does Unlimited Quantitative Easing authorize the Fed to use its unlimited fire power to set stock prices at the level it deems appropriate?

    1. CNBC TV
      Federal Reserve
      ‘Nothing is out of the question’: What it would take for the Fed to start buying stocks
      Published Sun, Mar 29 2020 5:50 PM EDT
      Jeff Cox
      Key Points
      – Should market conditions deteriorate, the Federal Reserve could venture into the stock market, several market analysts and economists said.
      – Such a move likely would come in the form of a big ETF that tracks major market indexes.
      – Congressional approval would be needed to take such a step.
      – The Fed already has launched an historically aggressive use of its various powers.
      RT: Jerome Powell, 190918 3
      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference following a closed two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, September 18, 2019.
      Sarah Silbiger | Reuters

      The Federal Reserve thus far has unleashed what’s frequently been called a bazooka in its efforts to calm markets. Its next step could be to go nuclear.

      Should conditions on Wall Street deteriorate significantly, the central bank could go where it’s never gone before, into the equity market where it would take a passive interest in the performance of stocks, according to market analysts and economists.

      The Fed already has unloaded an unprecedented level of ammunition against the tumult brought on by the coronavirus, so doing more would take it even further into uncharted waters.

      However, interviews with a variety of market pros over the past week showed that the idea of the Fed venturing into the stock market seems anything but far-fetched. The Fed would need congressional permission to extend its operations, but already has received wide latitude from the Treasury Department through emergency provisions in the Federal Reserve Act.

      If there were any major dislocations, it is clear that they will go into whatever nook and cranny in the market that starts to choke,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “We know that when you have choking in one part of the market, you have choking in another part of the market that leads to dislocation. As soon as you cross that line, you are now facing something else that you could conceivably buy.”

      1. Dumb question of the day:

        If the Fed can afford to protect the wealthy, by protecting them from losses in the stock market, could they potentially make rent payments or mortgage payments or cover medical insurance costs for less fortunate Americans who just lost their income streams? (Still trying to grasp the Fed’s definition of Unlimited…)

        1. Eye’ve likewi$e been pondering the debt$ of “UNLIMITED!”

          We $hould get together & call$ our$elves an in$titute.

          (Credit to Paul Simon)

      2. If they venture down this path, will the Fed publicly announce its stock market price targets, the way it announces short-term interest rate decisions?

        1. That’s what I’m wondering. I hope it gets reported how much executive compensation would increase if the targets are hit.

          1. It would also be useful to know how much hedge fund losses are erased by targeted stock purchases.

    1. In light of your post, does it seem surprising that oil is nonetheless under $20 / bbl?

        1. If he did, then that helps explain why we are still waiting for AlbuquerqueDan’s predicted recovery to $80/BBC to occur. The world is drowning in oil, at the very time we are collectively learning that we can live with far less of it.

    2. Search: US govt required to sell oil from strategic reserve.

      Does the right hand, know what the left hand is doing?

  32. Market Snapshot
    U.S. stock-index futures slump as investors keep focus on coronavirus numbers
    Published: March 29, 2020 at 7:14 p.m. ET
    By William Watts
    Trump extends virus guidelines to April 30
    An empty restaurant at Grand Central Station in New York City last week.
    AFP/Getty Images

    Stock-index futures fell Sunday, pointing to a lower start for Wall Street on Monday, as the number of coronavirus cases and deaths continues to rise and investors brace for data in the week ahead expected to underline the sharp economic toll of the pandemic.

    Futures on the Dow jones Industrial Average (YM00, -1.22%) fell 437 points, or 2%, to 21,000, while S&P 500 futures (ES00, -1.25%) lost 2.1% to 24,71. Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00, -1.13%) were down 89.50 points, or 1.7%, at 7,443.

    1. Guau…those futures losses reported in that story magically vanished.

      Curiouser and curiouser!

      1. Volatility is great as long as prices are rising. It’s a melt up! Time to unchain your FOMO!!

        “Futures on the Dow jones Industrial Average (YM00, +0.44%) fell 437 points, or 2%, to 21,000, while S&P 500 futures (ES00, +0.38%) lost 2.1% to 24,71. Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00, +0.21%) were down 89.50 points, or 1.7%, at 7,443.”

        1. It looks like near 1% gains are baked in across the board for tomorrow. Come on, MarketWatch peops…keep up! Worser and worser coronavirus news is bullish for Wall Street!

          Fair is foul and foul is fair,
          Hover through the fog and filthy air.

          – The Witch Hecate, Shakespeare’s Macbeth

          “Futures on the Dow jones Industrial Average (YM00, 1.008%) fell 437 points, or 2%, to 21,000, while S&P 500 futures (ES00, 0.868%) lost 2.1% to 24,71. Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00, 0.879%) were down 89.50 points, or 1.7%, at 7,443.”

    2. Bloomberg
      Markets
      U.S. Stock Futures Slide With Virus Spread Stoking Volatility
      By Vildana Hajric and Claire Ballentine
      March 29, 2020, 3:03 PM PDT
      Updated on March 29, 2020, 9:01 PM PDT
      S&P 500 slid into Friday close, still notched 10% weekly rally
      Volatility has gripped financial markets since pandemic

      U.S. stock futures fell, rolling back more of last week’s surge, as traders reacted to weekend news that included U.S. coronavirus cases topping 132,000 and warnings that U.K. lockdowns could last six months.

      Contacts on the S&P 500 expiring in June fell 0.4% at 12:57 p.m. in Tokyo on Monday, paring a drop that exceeded 3% in early trading. Friday’s session had a turbulent end, with the cash market tumbling about 3% in the last half hour. The S&P 500 still managed to end the week with a 10% gain, its biggest in 11 years, boosted by a historic three-day rally.

      Dramatic swings have been the rule in global markets for five weeks as investors tried to price in an outbreak that has shut down economies, put millions out of work and made it all but certain corporate earnings will drop. The S&P 500 is trading at just under 17 times combined profits in the last year, down from 22 times last month.

      “We have to get used to the fact that we will have some high volatility and we will have multiple retests of lows before we find one.,” said Ed Campbell, portfolio manager and managing director at QMA. “We’re pricing in a recession. That doesn’t mean there isn’t more downside from here. Bottoming is a process.”

      1. China / Diplomacy
        Do China’s expulsions of US journalists harm its relationship with the world?
        – Cancellation of US reporters’ credentials followed the US designating five Chinese state media outlets as ‘foreign missions’ of their government
        – A ‘step forward’ for media freedom in 2008 has been replaced by another arena for the tensions between Beijing and Washington
        Topic | US-China relations
        Sarah Zheng
        Published: 10:00pm, 29 Mar, 2020

        1. I think The West got woke when Xi Jinping declared himself “emperor for life.” The immutable issue has been the “supply chains,” or we would have severed the relationship.

          1. I think The West got woke when Xi Jinping declared himself “emperor for life.”

            Nobody seemed very concerned about that to me. Not as long as there was money to be made and China kept filling those orders at the right price with no pesky labor issues.

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus
      China’s effort to end coronavirus lockdown meets local opposition
      Provincial authorities defy instructions to lift restrictions as distrust deepens
      People from Hubei wait at a checkpoint on the bridge from Huangmei to Jiujiang
      © REUTERS
      Sun Yu in Beijing 4 hours ago

      Beijing’s efforts to get people back to work in China have been met with widespread opposition from citizens who do not trust government assurances that the virus outbreak is under control.

      The problem is most acute for residents of Hubei, the province worst affected by coronavirus. A strict lockdown of the province ended on Wednesday, but many of its 6m residents who work in other parts of China are finding it impossible to leave as other local authorities defy central government orders and refuse to lift travel restrictions.

      On Friday that opposition erupted into violence as thousands of Hubei migrant workers tried to cross over a bridge linking Huangmei in Hubei to Jiujiang in neighbouring Jiangxi province. Video footage posted online showed police officers from Jiujiang and Huangmei wrestling with each other and hundreds of people attacking police and overturning their vehicles.

  33. COVID-19
    Coronavirus Prevention Measures Turn Violent in Parts of Africa as Nations Go Into Lockdown
    South African National Defence Forces take up positions outside the hostel in a densely populated Alexandra township east of Johannesburg, South Africa, on March 28, 2020. South African National Defence Forces take up positions outside the hostel in a densely populated Alexandra township east of Johannesburg, South Africa, on March 28, 2020.
    Themba Hadebe—AP
    By Cara Anna / AP
    March 28, 2020

    (JOHANNESBURG) — Police fired tear gas at a crowd of Kenyan ferry commuters as the country’s first day of a coronavirus curfew slid into chaos. Elsewhere, officers were captured in mobile phone footage whacking people with batons.

    Virus prevention measures have taken a violent turn in parts of Africa as countries impose lockdowns and curfews or seal off major cities. Health experts say the virus’ spread, though still at an early stage, resembles the arc seen in Europe, adding to widespread anxiety. Cases across Africa were set to climb above 4,000 on Saturday.

  34. Whatever challenges U.S. citizens on lockdown face are small in comparison to thise of third world citizens under similar measures.

    1. India
      Modi seeks ‘forgiveness’ from India’s poor over COVID-19 lockdown

      Modi apologises as 21-day lockdown stings millions, leaving the poor hungry and forcing migrant workers to flee cities.
      13 hours ago

      Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked the nation’s poor for forgiveness, as the economic and human toll from his 21-day nationwide lockdown deepens and criticism mounts over a lack of adequate planning ahead of the decision.

      1. The Indian lockdown may look like a bad idea in retrospect. What works in a wealthy country may fail in the Third World.

        For example, closing the economy may lead to economic hardship, triggering a mass migration that rapidly spreads the outbreak to remote corners of the country.

        The Financial Times
        Indian politics & policy
        Indian coronavirus lockdown triggers exodus to rural areas
        Migrant workers head home in battle to survive after losing jobs
        Migrant workers walk back to their villages along the Mumbai Pune highway during the lockdown in Mumbai, India
        © AP
        Jyotsna Singh, Amy Kazmin and Benjamin Parkin in New Delhi 5 hours ago

        Sunny Kumar, a 25-year-old construction worker, set out at dawn on Sunday morning, his wife carrying their three-month-old baby, to walk 230km from a Delhi suburb to their village in the state of Uttar Pradesh after running out of money for food and rent.

        Construction at Mr Kumar’s building site was suspended last weekend, along with all India’s other economic activity and public transport, for what was touted as a one-day “people’s curfew” to show resolve to fight coronavirus. Neither work nor transport services ever resumed, as Mr Modi then imposed a 21-day nationwide curfew to slow the spread of the deadly pathogen.

        Trudging along the highway snaking towards India’s rural heartland under the hot sun with friends, Mr Kumar said his family had no choice but to join the mass exodus of migrant workers now pouring out of India’s cities for long, arduous treks to distant rural villages — all in violation of the curfew. He said they hoped to reach their village in Etah district, in rural Uttar Pradesh in two days, walking day and night.

        1. walk 230km…in two days, walking day and night.

          Remind me not to complain about sitting here with a full gas tank.

          My Ex’s grandmother told of how she walked behind her parent’s Conestoga wagon from Colorado to central Kansas in the early 1900s at age 4. Their farm and orchard had failed due to weather changes.

  35. This is the house listed for auction from our favorite RHOC jerk Jim Bellino and his fake, hoarder wife Alexis

    27453 Ortega Hwy
    San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675

    See the price history

    He brought in 2016 for $3.65 M

    DATE EVENT PRICE
    3/19/2020 Listing removed $3,500,000
    1/24/2020 Listed for sale $3,500,000
    12/21/2019 Listing removed $5,895,000
    12/4/2019 Price change $5,895,000
    10/10/2019 Listed for sale $4,450,000
    8/24/2019 Listing removed $6,488,000
    5/23/2019 Price change $6,488,000
    4/8/2019 Price change $6,988,000
    3/21/2019 Price change $7,488,000
    2/23/2019 Listed for sale $7,990,000
    7/22/2016 Sold $3,650,000
    7/15/2016 Pending sale $3,800,000
    5/9/2016 Listed for sale $3,800,000
    11/29/2012 Sold $3,004,500
    9/26/2011 Listing removed $4,499,000
    3/26/2011 Listed for sale $4,499,000
    2/7/2011 Listing removed $4,449,000
    10/31/2010 Listed for rent $18,000
    6/8/2010 Listed for sale $4,499,000
    6/9/2008 Sold $5,000,000
    7/14/2000 Sold $750,000

      1. https://www.bravotv.com/the-real-housewives-of-orange-county/most-wanted/alexis-jim-bellino-buy-4-million-mansion-pre-divorce

        They have another $1.3 M house in San Juan. At some point, this must have seen like a wise decision. Why do you need 3 houses? This is before the divorce. We talked about Mania here. We talked about sound lending too. Jim had a real estate business that went bankrupted during the last bubble. He now has a trampoline business which doesnt look like a business model now, with this social distancing.

  36. Got risk asset price correlation? It’s a natural consequence of too many debt-funded gamblers choking on the great leverage unwind now underway.

    The Financial Times
    Markets Briefing Asia-Pacific equities
    Asian stocks fall as oil prices drop to 18-year low
    Crude tumbles after US warns that 200,000 people could die from coronavirus outbreak
    The price of Brent fell to its lowest level in 18 years
    © AP
    Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong 18 minutes ago

    Stocks across Asia fell after oil prices dropped to their lowest level in nearly two decades on fears that coronavirus would cause a collapse in global demand.

    Oil prices have now plummeted by about two-thirds this year, with a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia compounding the impact of the virus pandemic.

    In early Asia trading on Monday, West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, slid as much as 7.4 per cent to an 18-year low of $19.92 per barrel. Brent crude, the international marker, fell as much as 7.6 per cent to $23.03 a barrel.

    The latest slump in oil prices came after a senior government medical adviser in the US warned on Sunday that up to 200,000 people in the country could die as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak. President Donald Trump has extended social distancing guidelines in the US until the end of April, raising new concerns over the pandemic’s economic impact.

    “The bearishness in the market continues to grow,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. He said the surplus of crude in the markets during the second quarter of the year was likely to be “enormous” as Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree on production cuts.

  37. If an insurance policy doesn’t cover pandemics, can the company still be forced to pay pandemic-related claims?

    1. The Financial Times
      US insurance industry
      US legal battle looms over coronavirus insurance payouts
      Industry says claims excluded from its policies and pose an ‘existential threat’
      Insurers insist they don’t cover pandemics and that retroactive amendments would leave the industry insolvent
      © Spencer Platt/Getty
      Robert Armstrong in New York, Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and Oliver Ralph in London 12 hours ago

      US state legislators and lawyers have threatened to force the payment of coronavirus-related insurance claims that the industry insists are excluded from its policies and could pose an “existential threat” to their business.

      Members of Congress are also debating the need for legislation requiring insurers to pay for shutdowns caused by the virus, and bills that would have the same effect have been introduced in several states.

      Insurers, which in the US are largely regulated at the state level, insist that their policies exclude pandemic coverage and that retroactive amendments would leave the industry insolvent.

      “The losses involved would simply swamp the ability to pay,” said Joseph Wayland, general counsel for the US insurer Chubb. “It is an existential threat to the industry if it had to take responsibility for a risk it never underwrote and never charged for.” The chair of Lloyd’s of London, Bruce Carnegie-Brown, said that such a change would put the industry “in jeopardy”.

      Earlier this month, a bipartisan group of US Congress people wrote to insurance trade associations urging them to “work with your member companies . . . to recognise financial loss due to Covid-19 as part of policyholders’ business interruption coverage”.

      Will Kiley, spokesman for Republican Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, who signed the letter, said the congressman was working with a bipartisan group from the House small business and financial services committees on a bill that would include federal support for insurers.

      “The business interruption provision we are drafting is prospective, not retroactive, and will be federally backstopped in a public-private partnership,” said Mr Kiley.

      1. I knew this was coming about the health insurance companies claiming they aren’t liable on this C-19 flu.

        The insurance Companies covered flu outbreaks before and this is just trying to get. out because it’s going to be expensive. ICU care is really costly. They no doubt want a bail out. This is going to be another bizarre twist when people find out their costly health insurance doesn’t want to pay.

        1. It’s a bummer when you realize the premiums you thought the insurance company was investing in a fund to cover future claims instead get diverted to pay attorneys for providing the legal reasons for not paying out when an insured event occurs.

        2. This is going to be another bizarre twist when people find out their costly health insurance doesn’t want to pay.

          That’ll be the last straw. The only thing keeping the majority of voters from wanting universal health care is (was?) the fact that they felt more secure with their employer provided plan. If that’s gone, the insurance companies will have nothing left to offer to prevent their destruction. Everybody has hated them for a long time.

          1. “That’ll be the last straw.”

            Yes, and with millions out of work their health insurance will be the next thing to go.

          2. Yes, and with millions out of work their health insurance will be the next thing to go.

            I suspect that many of them had no insurance to begin with.

  38. 📣🎙: “it’s the common.cold folks! 👾

    (Since it’s CNN & knot faux.new$, just ignore it.)

    (Roger, my good friend & neighbor, his cousin)

    Singer-songwriter John Prine critically ill with Covid-19

    By Susannah Cullinane, CNN, Sun March 29, 2020

    (CNN) Musician John Prine is in a critical condition in hospital after a “sudden onset” of coronavirus symptoms, his family says.

    Prine, 73, was hospitalized on Thursday and intubated Saturday night and continues to receive care but “his situation is critical,” according to a family statement posted on his verified Twitter account.

    “This is hard news for us to share. But so many of you have loved and supported John over the years, we wanted to let you know, and give you the chance to send on more of that love and support now. And know that we love you, and John loves you,” the statement said.

    “We are going through a time that reminds us not to take anything for granted. We tell people we love them. This one today goes out to @JohnPrineMusic as we pray for his healing,” he wrote.

    Prine’s official website describes Prine’s trademark as an “ability to speak to the everyday experience of ordinary people with a simple honesty.”

    The Grammy Award-winning singer and songwriter has had nearly 50-year career playing a blend of country and folk music.

    Born in 1946, the Songwriters Hall of Fame says that Prine began his career in Chicago in the late 1960s after learning guitar aged 14.

    Songs from his 1971 debut album were later covered by musicians including Johnny Cash, Bonnie Raitt, John Denver and Norah Brown. In a 2009 interview, Bob Dylan listed Prine as one of his favorite songwriters.

  39. Yep, this has always been a great blog going back for years.

    I found this blog way back in 2005 by accident one day. Back in those days people on the blog were trying to warn people of the upcoming real estate crash and the fraud in lending, etc

    Anyway, your right that’s it’s like a town hall. I like everybody.

  40. Professor Bear,

    Based on all these posts of yours it’s making me wonder how much is being hidden.

    Also, they discovered they can use a C-pack for air at a fraction of cost and easy to produce quickly.

  41. COVID-19 deaths are merely a blip in the global total annual death count. Who knew?

    And it’s good to know that we aren’t alone in our confusion over the true COVID-19 death rate.

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus
    The mystery of the true coronavirus death rate
    Without comprehensive testing and more precision over the cause of fatalities global comparisons should be treated with caution
    The coffin of a victim of coronavirus is loaded on to a military funeral car by police and other officials in northern Italy on Saturday
    © Marco Ottico/EPA/Shutterstock
    Camilla Hodgson 3 hours ago

    The figure at the root of so much global angst about coronavirus is currently 4.7 per cent. That is the proportion of people, as of Sunday afternoon, who have died after being diagnosed with the virus — 32,137 out of the 685,623 who have tested positive for Covid-19 around the world.

    It compares with a death rate of around 0.1 per cent for seasonal flu and 0.2 per cent for pneumonia in high-income countries. However, 4.7 per cent is not only changeable but frustratingly unreliable, both for governments seeking to calibrate their policy response and for citizens trying to gauge how much they should worry.

    The proportion of people who have died from the disease varies strikingly from country to country. Researchers warn that there are so many uncertainties — not least over the true number of infections — that it remains almost impossible to draw firm conclusions about the death rate.

    Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organisation’s health emergencies programme, has outlined four factors that might contribute to the differing mortality rates: who becomes infected, what stage the epidemic has reached in a country, how much testing a country is doing, and how well different healthcare systems are coping.

    But there are other sources of doubt too, including how many coronavirus victims would have died of other causes if no pandemic had occurred. In a typical year, around 56m people die around the world — an average of about 153,000 per day.

    1. NYC is now over 100 coronavirus deaths every day, with a peak of over 200.

      The average had been 420 deaths per day.

      Temporary hospitals have now been built in the Javits Center and Central Park, and a hospital ship has arrived. The bring out your dead trucks are in place.

      I guess we will now find out if we are over or underprepared. It is now two weeks since the city essentially shut down.

      1. over or under

        Sounds like Manhattan is prepared. What about the other half of the city population?

        1. Manhattan is only 1.5 million out of 8.5 million city residents, and 20 million metro area residents.

          But it accounts for a much bigger share of jobs, including hospital jobs.

          That raises an interesting question, however. People from the other boroughs go to Manhattan for care that can be scheduled — operations, cancer treatments, and the like. The big Manhattan hospitals own hospitals in the other boroughs and outside the city and use them as feeders. The hospitals outside Manhattan are not sized to provide care in proportion to the local population.

  42. 1h ago 02:30
    Introduction: Oil price sinks

    Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

    With the world economy in crisis, oil prices have sunk to fresh 17-year lows this morning.

    Traders are ditching crude amid signs that energy demand will sink this year, just as the ongoing Saudi-Russia price war leaves the market saturated with supply.

    Brent crude, sourced from the North Sea, has fallen 5% to just $23 per barrel — its lowest level since November 2002. US crude oil is also tumbling, dropping below $20 towards the 17-year low hit last week.

    This extends the stunning slump in crude prices over the recent weeks – Brent crude hit $70 in January, before Covid-19 struck the global economy.

    1. ‘There is potential this could go even lower’: Oil prices plunge to 17-year lows as demand drop threatens to overwhelm storage facilities
      Callum Burroughs
      Mar. 30, 2020, 04:27 AM
      REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
      – Crude oil prices tanked Monday as continued fears over the coronavirus pandemic slammed energy demand.
      – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) the US benchmark dropped below $20 a barrel in Asian trading while Brent crude hit $23.03, its lowest price since 2002.
      – The ongoing price war between producers Russia and Saudi Arabia alongside concerns over storage capacity has sunk prices.

      Global crude oil prices tanked Monday amid continued concerns over the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on energy demand and the ongoing price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

      West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark dropped below $20 a barrel in Asian trading while Brent crude hit $23.03, its lowest price since 2002.

      Both sets of futures regained some of their early losses in European trading hours but remain down. Brent crude is down 6.2% at $26.23 while WTI is down 5.7% at $20.21 as of 9.00 a.m. in London (4.00 a.m. ET).

    1. Before Fed Acted, Leverage Burned Hedge Funds in Treasury Market
      Sonali Basak, Liz Capo McCormick, Donal Griffin and Hema Parmar
      Bloomberg
      March 19, 2020, 2:47 PM PDT
      Traders Dread Getting Sent Home as Markets Move Faster Than WiFi

      (Bloomberg) — When coronavirus panic kicked off unprecedented turmoil in Treasuries last week, hedge fund leverage was lurking.

      The firms use borrowed money from the repurchase market for the popular basis trade, which exploits price differences between cash Treasuries and futures. Though individual firms’ borrowing is a closely guarded metric, people familiar with the transactions said some of them levered up as much as 50 times their own wagers. Leveraged funds’ exposure to the basis strategy could be as much as $650 billion, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said.

      Investors seeking safety rushed into Treasury futures on March 12, and hedge funds got hammered. A difficulty in completing trades ensued, and was a contributing factor to the Federal Reserve’s decision to pledge $5 trillion to keep markets running smoothly.

  43. “True.Believers” gotta “True.Believe!”
    (Live, up close, in.person, all together now!)

    Busine$$

    Some Megachurche$ Are Still Packing In Crowds

    Blomberg / By Polly Mosendz / March 29, 2020

    Live service for 550 in Central, La.; virus is ‘not a concern’

    Os$teen’s $ervices are streamed, via $ocial media and his$ app

    Congregants of megachurche$ in Louisiana, Ohio and Florida attended services in defiance of social distancing orders on Sunday morning, even as politicians and doctors took to weekly news shows to warn of coronavirus’s spread in the U.S.

    In Louisiana, which has seen a spike in cases and has a shelter-in-place order, the Life Tabernacle Church in the town of Central held services at 10 a.m. More than 550 parishioners attended, about half as many as the week before, pastor Tony Spell told a local news reporter.

  44. Parrish, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Manatee County
    Sinks Into An Abyss Of Foreclosures And Mortgage Fraud

    https://www.zillow.com/parrish-fl/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated, “If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”

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