thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

What May Look Like A Bargain Today May Actually Be Too High

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Some banks are offering borrowers a break, but it’s not really a break, Octavio Espinoza says. Espinoza: ‘They can hold the payment up to 90 days, but at the end of the 90 days, you have to pay it all at once. What kind of help is that?’ After we talked to Octavio’s bank, they reached out to him. Octavio said they gave him three options, including moving the loan payments to the end of the mortgage. He would then have to pay the insurance and property taxes at the end of that period. He is happy his bank worked with him but warns if other banks don’t, watch out.”

“Espinoza: ‘Everybody is going to be in foreclosure, I guess, because if you can’t pay, like I said, you have to choose between feeding your kids or paying the mortgage, you’re going to lose the house.'”

“An Arizona couple can no longer afford their monthly mortgage payment. They contacted their loan servicer to talk about their options. They were told they could miss payments for three months. Then came the catch. All of their back payments would need to be paid in a lump sum once the three months were over. Mike and his wife live in Southern Maryland and run a photo-booth rental business. The couple managed to make April’s mortgage payment, but they’ll struggle in the months to come. The forbearance allows them to pause their mortgage payments for three months. But under the agreement, they will have to come up with $4,800 at the end of that span.”

“We’ve been here before. And it didn’t end so well for a lot of borrowers.”

“Some sellers are adjusting their expectations. Sadie Mackay, a 29-year-old product manager for Amazon.com Inc. who recently bought a single-family home in Seattle, is getting ready to list her one-bedroom condo close to the company’s headquarters. Mackay said she’s not planning to price her condo aggressively. ‘It’s going to become a hot potato if I can’t sell it for a few months,’ she added.”

“The experience of Michelle Medina Bunting, 34, and her husband, Tim, 35, who rent on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, suggests that sellers are in a mood to discount. The couple last month made a $990,000 offer on a renovated two-home property in Jersey City that was listed for $1.3 million. After some negotiation, they couldn’t reach agreement and moved on. ‘Now, that agent has been calling us and saying, ‘Do you want to make another offer?’ Michelle Bunting said.”

“Jim Morris is on the hunt for a South Florida mansion, at a bargain price. He considered a nine-bedroom Fort Lauderdale property before coronavirus shut down the economy. The owner insisted he was firm at $15 million. But last month the owner called him to knock off 20%. ‘I am expecting more of that — there are going to be distressed situations and distressed situations lead to opportunities,’ Morris said. ‘I don’t want to overpay because we don’t know what the new market will look like when this is all over. What may look like a bargain today may actually be too high.'”

“Having purchased a 6,230-square-foot home in Mequon right before the 2008 housing crash, no one needs to remind Josh Liberman about the ups and downs of the real estate market. So it was a ‘pretty nerve-wracking’ experience when he listed the same home for sale on March 14 ‘when the bottom kind of started falling out of the financial world,’ Liberman said. Liberman was fortunate, though. He got an offer within a week, albeit below the sale price from 2008.”

“Q: The median home price in San Diego County was $587,000 in February. Will it be higher or lower by the end of the year (and why)? Norm Miller, University of San Diego: LOWER: High-end homes, often owned with no mortgages, are getting hit from the stock market declines, which reduces the ability to buy up. Middle to lower-tier homes will be hit by unemployment and increases in foreclosures. Ray Major, SANDAG: LOWER: Even before the crisis, housing prices were nearing their peak. The COVID-19 disruption has wiped out many people’s investment and retirement portfolios, consumer confidence is down, and many people will return to struggling businesses or find themselves out of work.”

“Gary London, London Moeder Advisors: LOWER: The activity counts and listings in home sales have already plunged. Soon we will see distressed listings, further eroding value.”

“Julian Castro and his partner found the perfect first home — a two-bedroom, single-bath house just east of Santa Rosa’s Montgomery Village shopping center. In fact, the couple made a $499,000 offer for the house on March 14. Since then, the economy locally and nationwide has experienced a free fall, and the bottom remains unclear. They’re just reluctant to buy their first house at the ‘top of the market,’ Castro said. ‘We’re kinda going back and forth every day,’ Castro said. ‘If there is a recession, how much will it affect home prices? Buying now means we can’t buy later.'”

“More than six in 10 Realtors say that homebuyers are already expecting a drop in home prices and less competition for properties. The median price of homes for sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area was down 3% in March from a year ago — one of the first such declines seen in a major market, according to Realtor.com.”

“Just before the coronavirus pandemic hit, Denver was booming with construction. But many contractors are already taking a major hit and bracing for the full impact of the outbreak. Joshua Vandenbrinck runs Colorado Metal Fabrication and One Nation Designs. Somehow, he’s holding out hope that he can work all this out, but as each day goes by Vandenbrinck says it’s going to be harder to stay afloat. ‘For personal example, we’re in several $60,000-$70,000 contracts, and if this doesn’t come back online we’ll have to file bankruptcy.'”

“Over the last few weeks, Q13 FOX has been sharing ways for renters to stay afloat during these hard times. But it’s also tough for homeowners and landlords who rely on rental income for their livelihoods. People like Lorraine Weeks and Ed Doyne are in that situation. The couple has worked hard for decades and they say their road to retirement was only possible because of their rental properties. ‘Hope is not a business plan but we hope things will smooth out sooner than later,’ Weeks said.”

“They are losing sleep over how they are going to pay their mortgages and those kinds of concerns are causing many to call people like Dan Golden, with Cornerstone Home Lending. But refinancing isn’t for everyone leaving many landlords without a safety net. People who own rental properties may not be able to lock in the lowest interest rates compared to those refinancing a home they live in. Also anyone with a jumbo loan in Washington state or a loan more than $741,000 may find it harder to qualify for a refinance.”

“The Nags Head Planning Board held a virtual meeting via the Zoom platform on April 1. David Elder asked to revisit the topic of additional dwelling units (ADUs). ‘We have a residual level of structures that are being utilized as Airbnbs and since they have become a bit of a glut on the market, there is an amount of interest to move that into longer term rentals [or] seasonal rentals for workers,’ Elder added.”

“The people responsible for selling New York’s most expensive homes are sounding the alarm on what coronavirus has done to the luxury market. ‘The sky has fallen,’ said Frances Katzen, a residential broker at real estate agent Douglas Elliman. As New York City became the epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak in the U.S., brokers saw their pool of potential buyers disappear—and watch as clients with agreed-upon, but not-yet-closed, deals walk away. The knock-on effect may see developers miss sales milestones, which could in turn move lenders to seek recourse.”

“A US housing crisis is coming and although it won’t be anything like the last one, that won’t make it any less painful. Even though there has been no rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud, housing is still overvalued. And the dearth of inventory that’s plagued the current cycle will reverse in violent fashion once the worst of the virus has passed as financially strapped homeowners seek to raise cash. And as affordability collapses with fewer buyers eligible to buy a home, the only way to rectify the mismatch between supply and demand will be via declining prices.”

“Home prices historically meandered in a range of three to four times median incomes, jumping to 5.1 times in December 2005 before collapsing. The ratio is now at 4.4 times, a level that was unprecedented prior to June 2004. At the start of the last decade, about a fifth of the homes in the US were priced at $300,000 or higher. Ten years on, that’s true for more than half of all homes.”

“The capping of deductions at $10,000 has already led to a 10-25 per cent discount on home prices in high tax states relative to their lower-tax counterparts. Anticipated increases in property taxes to offset collapsing state and municipal budgets will amplify the damage inflict on those on fixed incomes. A complete unknown that could increase the coming surge in supply is the pool of single-family rentals. About eight million landlords who own between one and 10 properties accounting for half the nation’s rental properties, according to Avail, a software company that caters to landlords.”

“Financial duress will come swiftly for those carrying multiple mortgages. Also, a small cohort of institutional investors own roughly 250,000 of the roughly 16 million pool of rental homes, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. Making matters worse is the crash in demand for jumbo mortgages, which are those over the $510,400 conforming loan ceiling.”

“It’s also impossible to quantify how Americans will perceive homeownership given the hardship so many will endure. If frugality is embraced as it was after the Great Depression, homes will once again be viewed as a utility. The McMansion mentality is at risk of extinction.”

“The reason why the collapse in the subprime mortgage market hit the housing market so hard was because the lead up was predicated on the fact that there had never been a nationwide decline in home prices. But now for the second time in a little more than a decade, Americans are poised to witness the impossible.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 206 Comments

  2. ‘Norm Miller, University of San Diego: LOWER: High-end homes, often owned with no mortgages, are getting hit from the stock market declines, which reduces the ability to buy up. Middle to lower-tier homes will be hit by unemployment and increases in foreclosures’

    Wa?

    ‘Ray Major, SANDAG: LOWER: Even before the crisis, housing prices were nearing their peak. The COVID-19 disruption has wiped out many people’s investment and retirement portfolios, consumer confidence is down, and many people will return to struggling businesses or find themselves out of work’

    ‘Gary London, London Moeder Advisors: LOWER: The activity counts and listings in home sales have already plunged. Soon we will see distressed listings, further eroding value.’

    Gary, you ol’ doom and gloomer. Just remind everybody about those gold nuggets under the truck in the dirt driveway!

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg!

    1. NO ma$$ unemployment, NO HB.B ll $helter$.$hack$.Debacle$!
      BY Chri$$y.”thorn.in.yer.$ide”.Berg

      I$ it 16+ million$ U$ former.working$.citizen$ filing fer “no.job$.now” a$$istance this last few week$?

      $ad.

    3. Even before the crisis, housing prices were nearing their peak.

      Already passed it around here — peak was spring of 2018 in these parts. Delusional sellers are still listing homes at spring 2018 prices, but they close for substantially less now, 10% at least.

      It feels like everything is in a holding pattern here, existing listings sitting, no new ones, few price drops.

      1. Everyone tries to holdout — but sooner or later a few people come to see the new reality — then we’ll see the prices on those listings that have been sitting forever start to drop.

        Hasn’t happened just yet here in Northern California. Nothing has sold in my neighborhood for months (i.e. even before the virus) despite lots of listings.

        1. It is very, very early to see capitulation. That being said, with the amount of job losses we’ve seen in such a short window, I’d expect that to speed it up a little bit. I’m not sure how the forbearance period might affect things. Many people are in limbo with their jobs, with I’d suspect a great many hoping things are “going back to normal” this summer. I don’t see that happening.

          1. “It is very, very early to see capitulation.”

            The kind of cuts that need to happen will only come from the bank’s REO distress sales or your local county’s property tax lien sales. That 2008 “floor under house prices” prevented both from happening.

  3. ‘Having purchased a 6,230-square-foot home in Mequon right before the 2008 housing crash, no one needs to remind Josh Liberman about the ups and downs of the real estate market. …He got an offer within a week, albeit below the sale price from 2008’

    Under the 2008 price?

    DONG!

    1. Any $tategie$ to offer these POOR folk$ Mr. Ben?

      (There’s that word again: “$nap.up!”)

      Wealth:

      Ultra-Wealthy Pull Ca$h From Man$ions to Buy Beaten-Down A$$ets

      From London townhou$es to Pari$ian apartment$, some of the world’$ riche$t homeowner$ are turning to their real e$tate holding$ to acce$$ ca$h.

      Enness, a mortgage broker that caters to the wealthy, said more clients are seeking loans backed by real estate to help them repay other debt, invest in businesses and snap up cheap assets in the wake of a pandemic-driven rout of global markets.

      Bloomberg / By Tom Metcalf / April 9, 2020

      Wealthy find cheap capital at home as pandemic pounds markets

      Real e$tate a$$ets helping some investor$ avoid margin call$

      One Asian family drew down about 40 million pounds ($50 million) against a collection of homes in London’s upscale Knightsbridge neighborhood to fund property purchases and private equity investments in the U.K. A Middle Eastern client borrowed 15 million pounds against a plot on the city’s north side to acquire other sites. An owner from Eastern Europe is tapping liquidity from his Paris home

      “We have individuals from all over the world contacting us for this very purpose,” said Islay Robinson, chief executive officer of London-based Enness. “There is an abundance of mortgage finance available, and using real estate to secure a funding line can open plenty of opportunity — especially if you are borrowing at record low rates.”

      Quentin Marshall, head of private banking at Weatherbys, said many of its clients are doing the same. They’re borrowing to diversify holdings and to avoid dismantling existing portfolios when markets are down.”

      People have got other investment assets that they don’t want to disturb,” Marshall said. “Rather than seek to do anything on that side of their balance sheet they are looking to borrow.”

      Attractive A$$et$:

      Real estate is one of the largest asset classes held by rich families, comprising more than a fifth of holdings at family offices, according to a survey by UBS Group AG and Campden Research. They’re often not heavily mortgaged — if at all — making it an attractive asset to leverage.

      The ability of the wealthy to unlock home equity contrasts with the wider housing market, where new lending has dried up because in-person property valuations, a cornerstone of the process, have ground to a halt. U.K. home sales plunged by two-thirds in the week ended April 4, compared with the five-year average, according to real estate consultant Knight Frank. The decline has been more muted at the top end of the market, where bespoke deals and lower loan-to-value ratios are common

      For those with sizable property empires, real estate is a cheap source of capital. Robinson said interest on a five-year loan is generally 1.5% to 3% over the Bank of England’s base rate, currently 0.1%. While global equity markets have tumbled — the MSCI All-Country World Index is down 18% this year — property values may fare better.

      Rare Diamond$:

      An ability to acce$$ ca$h is proving key in the current climate, where some investors are seeing opportunities after weeks of falling equity prices. A variety of assets have been collateralized. Art-financing firms have made loans against works by Jean-Michel Basquiat and rare diamonds. Like property, valuations for fine art don’t necessarily correlate with equities.

      In some cases, wealthy families have even started lending to banks. Credit Suisse Group AG turned to its own wealthy clients to bolster its ability to lend as markets sank last month.

  4. ‘Even though there has been no rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud, housing is still overvalued’

    I’m going to disagree with writer Danielle DiMartino Booth, and I’ll break out some recent examples of mass mortgage fraud later.

    1. No longer a hottie who can afford to disagree and still survive comfortably, she now has to run with the herd for protection and something to eat.

          1. Falling housing prices sure aren’t getting old.

            Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Demand Plummets On Skyrocketing Inventory And Plunging Rental Rates

            https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98102/home-values/

            *select price from dropdown menu on first chart

            As a leading economist advises, “Mortgage debt is the most toxic and damaging debt of all. Avoid it at all costs.”

      2. Real Estate televangelist Chris Thornberg decided to swallow the Blue Pill and run with the herd too. Corruption, fraud and government bail-outs are regular features in his business plan.

        1. Sad. It’s kind of like running into an old acquaintance who’s peddling Herbalife or something.

    2. March 26, 2020

      “Before Covid-19 started roiling China, a November FHA report found that 27% of borrowers last year spent more than half their incomes on debt, a level it describes as ‘unprecedented.’ The share of FHA loans souring in their first six months has doubled over the last three years to almost 1%.”

      “Not long ago, Alex Castillo drove his shiny black Infiniti SUV through an office park north of the San Antonio airport, along a busy seven-mile stretch of highway that loan officers call ‘Mortgage Row’ because of its abundance of small independent mortgage companies that dominate FHA lending. Castillo, who has the words ‘The Dream Starts Here’ stitched into his jacket, works for Pennsylvania-based American Residential Lending. Oddly, amid the pandemic, his business is booming. His customers locked in FHA mortgages after interest rates plunged this month — adding to federally backed mortgage debt.”

      “‘If the government tells me you’re good enough to get a loan, I have to trust and believe in the government,’ Castillo said. ‘Then we just hope and pray that the client doesn’t get foreclosed on.’”

      “In downtown San Antonio, scores of investors stood on a parched lawn beside the city’s historic granite-and-red-sandstone courthouse. It was the first Tuesday of February, the day of the foreclosure auction. Matt Badders, a San Antonio lawyer who represents lenders, auctioned off two houses. The failed mortgages remind him of the run-up to the financial crisis 12 years ago, when lending to customers with spotty credit nearly brought down the world’s financial system. ‘We’re almost back to 2007, when mortgage originators are waking people up on park benches, saying sign here,’ Badders said.”

      “At the auction, the crowd bid on 338 homes, a third with FHA mortgages, according to Roddy’s Foreclosure Listing Service. One house had dual master bedrooms, a game room and granite kitchen counters. It sold for $202,000 — $52,000 less than the homeowner borrowed only two years ago. The taxpayer-backed FHA insurance fund will take a loss.”

      “Dave Stevens, FHA commissioner under President Barack Obama and former chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said a recession will expose hidden risks in home lending. ‘This should be an alarm bell to policymakers,’ Stevens said. ‘Sometimes you get blinded by a good economy and suddenly look at it and see a bubble of defaults coming.’”

      “The federal government has decided it doesn’t want to pursue — and has asked a judge to dismiss — a lawsuit against Utah-based Academy Mortgage Corp. The judge refused. The suit claims the company’s staff would repeatedly feed information into an automated federal underwriting system, manipulating it until the computer gave the green light. ‘Decline is a curse word,’ Plaintiff Gwen Thrower, a former underwriter, quoted a manager as saying. ‘We don’t use it.'”

      http://housingbubble.blog/?p=3070

  5. Went to the grocery store this morning. Was there when it opened, and was wearing mask and gloves.

    The store had implemented 1-way isles and was playing constant reminders to social distance on the speakers. Maybe 30% of the people shopping there totally didn’t give a flying flip – not distancing, pushing past people, shoving their carts the wrong way down the center of the isle and refusing to budge for people going the right way, practically getting in other faces.

    I have zero faith left in humanity.

          2. Marge Schott

            Were you a Midwesterner in a former life? (That’s not a name typically tossed around in casual conversation. She was front and center when I attended college in Cincinnati in the early 90s.)

          3. “Were you a Midwesterner in a former life?”

            No, California kid. I was thinking of strong personalities who have been lambasted publicly, but remained defiant and ignored the criticism like geese in the rain.

        2. Some things never change.

          We don’t pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes.

          — Leona Helmsley

    2. Went to Safeway yesterday afternoon. One door was closed. The other door had a guy counting entries and exits. There was no line to get in. The store was fairly well stocked. Plain white mass produced eggs and milk were available, though they were pretty low on yogurt. Anyway, nothing like it was a few weeks ago after the panic buying.

      They also had the one way aisles. Some people didn’t observe it, but given the low density of shoppers it didn’t really matter. The majority of shoppers were not wearing any kind of mask, and those who did tended to be older.

      1. If the governments act responsibly, there will be no shortage of food in the stores. That’s a big if….actually.

        1. Maybe more people ending up losing their homes is a good thing? The homeless seem to be faring well in this beer flu pandemic – I haven’t read anything about them getting hit hard. Plus they don’t seem to have the lockdown rules enforced on them – they enjoy more freedom than the average landowner.

          1. “I haven’t read anything about them getting hit hard.”

            Check out the graves being filled in NY bye inmates @ rikers prison in thee waste.lands near the Bronx.

            Good material for this Holy Week:

            John.Doe & Jane.Doe

            “We hardly.Knew.ya!”

            🙏 Jesus, will remember who they was. This.eye.Believe!

            GOD’s Day, this.day.✌

          2. Mozart met a similar fate, tossed into an unmarked grave. The poor are soon forgotten unless they leave behind immortal works of art.

          3. Homeless Crisis
            Published 1 day ago
            San Diego’s move to shelter homeless in convention center will create coronavirus ‘powder keg,’ activist warns
            By Andrew O’Reilly | Fox

            Outreach workers in San Diego are calling the city’s plan to bring more than 800 homeless individuals into a temporary shelter in the San Diego Convention Center amid the coronavirus outbreak “a powder keg” that could permit the contagion to rapidly spread among one of the most vulnerable segments of the population.

            City officials in San Diego on Wednesday opened the doors of the convention center to 829 homeless people who previously had been staying in shelters, and the city could eventually have up to 1,500 people living there. While living conditions at the center will be less cramped than in shelters, some homeless outreach workers say even one positive case of COVID-19 could wreak havoc on the people staying on the convention center’s floor.
            …

          4. “The poor are soon forgotten unless they leave behind immortal works of art.”

            If eye recollect, “they” are immortal works of art, from their beginnings.

            Art they knot?

      3. Other than toilet paper and hand sanitizer our Northern California Coast Safeway is fully stocked. Including lots of fresh seafood. Milk was even on sale.

        1. We haven’t really had trouble locating anything except sanitizer, but I happened to have a large quantity of 99% isopropyl alcohol down the basement (I use it for cleaning electronics work), so we were able to make a homemade batch. We stocked up on paper products when we saw the panic buying start, and are flush with that as well, so to speak.

          The real dumb luck on my part was that I had a box of 3M N95 masks I bought last fall for a home improvement project. I could have just gotten some cheapies,. but something possessed me to splurge for the good ones that day.

      1. Gloves are not as important as masks. Nose and mouth are the main pathways for the virus to enter. Also, the mask blocks, even a bandanna with an equivalent of N-50 will block enough virus to result in a low inoculation and thus a mild case. If I can’t avoid this thing entirely, then my secondary goal is to contract a mild case and sit with bed rest, tonic water, tylenol, Vitamin C and D, and zinc, and hope for the best.

          2. If masks only protected the uninfected from the infected, then the medical staff would not need them. Masks protect everybody.

            Next.

          3. If masks only protected the uninfected from the infected, then the medical staff would not need them. Masks protect everybody.

            People act like they’re a one way valve, only filtering what leaves, not what comes in. That would actually render them useless for what they were initially designed – to protect the wearer.

          4. I remain unconvinced that wearing an old scarf over one’s face provides the wearer protection against anything besides the glares of self-appointed health vigilantes. If you believe it confers COVID-19 protection, then there may be an added “peace of mind” benefit, but I don’t.

          5. Define “protection.” That bandanna might not protect you from *infection,* but it might lessen the severity and protect you from *death.* Since your’e so interested in death rate, maybe the bandanna will be useful for you.

          6. I experienced my first mask-shaming tonight, by one of the gatekeepers at the entrance to our local Von’s grocery store.

            She: “Do you have a mask?”

            I: “No. I don’t need one, as I have been living under quarantine for three weeks, and am perfectly healthy.”

            She (with air of disdain): “After today, you will have to wear one.”

            I: “I won’t be back anytime soon.”

            So far as I could tell, I was the only shopper in the store without a mask.

          7. an old scarf over one’s face provides the wearer protection

            Because you’re not a gambler. It’s all about the odds.

          8. How bad are the odds when everyone else has on a mask and I don’t have COVID-19? Pretty good, I think. Much better than my odds on two flights for work taken in February then March, after the outbreak was already underway.

          9. Bandana, scarves, etc, could at least lessen the amount of viral load a person gets if theres contact with an infected person or object. Viral load seems to correlate with survival rate, based on the little that’s known now, as well as what might be considered common sense.

        2. “…as well as what might be considered common sense.”

          Common sense is increasingly displaced by irrational fear the longer people are forced to sequester themselves from society.

    4. So far this week ive been to Home Depot, target, orchard supply which is now called outdoor supply, ate a couple times at my fav taco stand, tonight we needed some sourdough bread so i went to a small produce market and got it. gloves or masks were not required anywhere just the distance, no lines, plenty of TP, workers mixed 50/50 on wearing masks but majority with gloves. Im adhering to the distance rule and i guess “chancing” my luck with no protection. I am noticing (because now everyone looks at everyone like they are lepers) that the younger 30 and below and descent to good shape are walking around with much more confidence than the rest. If we get anything good out of all this, mabye it will be some better health or motivation to be more healthy.. oh and of course the real estate market crater!

    1. Found an article in English on fox news:

      “Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Friday that his country will cut its crude oil output by 100,000 barrels per day, joining OPEC and other producers in efforts to stabilize the market.

      Lopez Obrador, speaking at his daily press briefing, said President Trump “generously” offered for the U.S. to reduce output by an additional 250,000 barrels a day, according to The Wall Street Journal.

      OPEC was hoping Mexico would lower its output by 400,000 barrels a day, and the country’s initial delay in joining the pact had jeopardized the arrangement.

      “The United States will help Mexico along and they’ll reimburse us some time at a later date when they’re pepared to do so,” Trump said at a press conference on Friday.

      1. Lopez Obrador, speaking at his daily press briefing, said President Trump “generously” offered for the U.S. to reduce output by an additional 250,000 barrels a day, according to The Wall Street Journal.

        Trump was just touting the decline in gas prices. Now he’s joining OPEC in cuts? What?

          2. Guess you haven’t been paying attention. They’ve been filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve!

        3. the decline in gas prices

          Right. Checking Gas Buddy app, there is one, ONE, station within 5 miles of me with sub $2 gas ($1.99). The others are within $.15 of where they were 2 months ago.

          1. Prices have also been very sticky in my neck of the woods, not that it matters. I filled up about 3 weeks ago and still have 3/4 of a tank.

          2. Not buying again until gasoline prices align with oil prices (other than the energy mutual fund shares I bought a couple of weeks ago).

          3. My company this week bought gas for .04 cents a gallon on the Wholesale market. Most stations right now are making .50 cents to $1 per gallon gross margin after tax. They usually make a few cents per gallon.

      2. $mells like “re.election” porridge.

        democrapt, … repubican different $hades of thee $ame color.

        1. Two heads of the same snake and all that. Yet, we see the partisan bickering day in and day out.

        2. Article 1, Section 11 of the U.S. Constitution established the 2 political parties. I trust the wisdom of the founding fathers on that matter.

  7. he couple last month made a $990,000 offer on a renovated two-home property in Jersey City that was listed for $1.3 million.

    The simplest way to avoid the mansion tax is to purchase a home for under $1 million. If you buy a condo or co-op for $999,999 – a dollar under $1 million – you pay no Mansion Tax. However, if you pay one dollar more, rounding up to $1 million, your tax is $10,000.

  8. San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As Southern California Chokes On Decades Of Subprime Mortgage Lending

    https://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92109/home-values/

    *Select price from drop down menu on first chart

    As a noted economist said, “I can $50k for my run down Chevy truck but where is the buyer at that price? So it is with all depreciating assets like houses and cars.”

  9. Fun! & (cool shared practice videos too!)

    Roger Federer Is Giving Free Tennis Lessons in Quarantine

    Yahoo / By Philip Ellis
    Men’s Health / April 8, 2020

    With plenty of time on our hands as quarantine shutdown continues, many of us are stepping up our home fitness game or working on new skills and hobbies. If you’re a keen would-be tennis player, now might not seem like the ideal time to practice; ideally a partner is needed. But Swiss tennis pro Roger Federer is proving that you can make the most of this downtime to work on your technique.

    In addition to donating more than $1 million to families affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland, the Grand Slam champion has been keeping himself occupied by offering his services as a tennis coach on Twitter. Federer, who has been posting videos of himself practicing trick-shots while self-isolating, shared a clip yesterday in which he demonstrated a solo drill that players can try themselves at home.

  10. How much more Unlimited Quarantinive Easing “Shock and Awe” will it take to turn Doubting Thomases into True Believers that there has never been a better time for dips to buy?

    1. The Financial Times
      Equities
      Why some investors think more big falls are coming
      ‘There’s no such thing as a bear market without a bear market rally,’ says one CIO
      Aggressive central bank intervention led to market rallies but some analysts fear there may be further falls later
      © FT montage; Bloomberg
      Katie Martin in London and Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo 11 hours ago

      When markets were in freefall under the pressure of coronavirus last month, Gregory Perdon was tempted to fall back on a tried-and-tested maxim that has assured investors a healthy profit for the past decade.

      “Every portfolio manager is mindful of the mantra to ‘buy the dip’,” said the co-chief investment officer at London-based private bank Arbuthnot Latham. At first, that included him.

      “Initially, I thought this would be a V-shaped recovery,” he said — a speedy return to health for the global economy and the capital markets after a short spell of distress triggered at the end of February by virus outbreaks and lockdowns in Europe. “What changed my view was when the Fed came in all guns blazing, and the markets still went red.”

      The US central bank slashed interest rates by a full percentage point, among a series of other supportive measures, before markets opened on March 16. The grand intervention was followed by the deepest stock market declines since 1987, triggering Mr Perdon’s change of heart.

      Now he focuses his efforts on what he describes as “curbing the enthusiasm” of some colleagues. “There’s no such thing as a bear market without a bear market rally,” he said.

      Since their mid-March low, US stocks have gained about 25 per cent, technically lifting them back into a new bull market, albeit one tinged with extreme uncertainty over the outlook for companies and the global economy.

      This presents a dilemma for investors. Is it wise to piggyback on the government and central bank support pouring into financial markets and snap up assets while their prices are still beaten up? This could, in years to come, end up being seen as the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Or is the epic shake-out in markets in March just the start of a long, slow decline in riskier assets?

      Deep pullbacks are, after all, a common feature of markets in the immediate aftermath of abrupt crises, as was evident in 2001, 2008, and even back to the great US stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression. US stocks did not reclaim their 1929 highs until 1958. Some analysts therefore reckon that the rally since late March is what is often dubbed a “bear market trap”.

      Robert Buckland, chief global equity strategist at Citi, points out that a decent rule of thumb is that stock markets fall roughly as much as corporate earnings do. The depth and extent of the global recession indicates that profits should halve this year — but the FTSE All-World index is now back within 20 per cent of its peak.

      Fund managers must try to balance the huge scale of central banks’ support — underlined again on Thursday when the Fed announced yet another big support package to the tune of $2.3tn — against economies in deep distress, as seen in a record-breaking acceleration in US job losses.
      …

    2. They’re playing indoor frisbee golf over @ Sven office for dre$$.down Friday!

      Federal Re$erve comment$

      Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader

      The Fed’s message to the market today: If you are careless and invest in high risk debt we will bail you out. If you are prudent and hedged in any way given the risk environment we’re in we will destroy your hedges. The Fed is encouraging risky behavior and punishing prudence.

      How do you value assets based on fundamentals when entities who have been assigned unlimited buying power buy everything they can regardless of fundamentals?

      Hey you the 16M+ freshly unemployed, the top 1% who own most stocks are celebrating.

      Support to individuals is less than 10 cents on the dollar. “We are misallocating vast swaths of money that has nothing to do with how people recover and everything to do with how balance sheets and assets are valued.”

      (It’$ only $6+ Trillion$ + “UNLIMITED” + (0%) a$ in Zero … Ea$y.Pea$y!)

      “We don’t need$ no $tinkin’ “Over.$ight$!” … mi$.u$e axoh!”

      Here’$ thee.$hort.ver$ion:

      💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲💰💲=

      🙈🙉🙊

    3. Completely irrelevant. As Chamath Palihapitiya so succinctly put it, “on Main St. today, people are getting wiped out, and right now rich CEOs are not, boards that had horrible governance are not, hedge funds are not, people are.”

      You can see who the benefactors are. This entire stimulus or bailout or whatever you call it is a sham. It’s the greatest ripoff of the American public in history. Oh yeah, there’s supposedly $1,200 coming for everybody. You’ll just have to wait until as late as July in some instances.

      1. “You’ll just have to wait until as late as July in some instances.”

        Rumor$ ha$ it:
        Free Check$ for those with <$10,000 income on April 17th

        Then other "Free" check$ every week following by increa$ed income$ of + $10,000 …

        All$.thee.way$ through thee $ummer, … into September

    4. “Quarantinive Ea$ing “$hock and Awe$”

      Excellent twist.on.word$ dear Professor!

      Eye like$ it!

  12. ‘They can hold the payment up to 90 days, but at the end of the 90 days, you have to pay it all at once. What kind of help is that?’

    Who do you think you are, Octavio, one of the Fed’s Wall Street grifter cronies? You proles will take what you’re given and like it.

  13. ‘Everybody is going to be in foreclosure, I guess, because if you can’t pay, like I said, you have to choose between feeding your kids or paying the mortgage, you’re going to lose the house.’”

    Not me. I paid my bills, lived within my means, and saved for a rainy day. But I might be buying a foreclosure or short sale once the bottom is in.

        2. Aka Indentured Servitude. That’s the correct term for otherwise free folk who choose to sell themselves into Debt Slavery.

  14. Mackay said she’s not planning to price her condo aggressively. ‘It’s going to become a hot potato if I can’t sell it for a few months,’ she added.”

    What if starving realtors refuse to waste their time with your overpriced listing?

    1. going to become a hot potato

      As a noted economist states, “Not really. Not at all.”

      A hot potato is something you can just toss aside. Better get some oven mitts. And boxes.

  15. ‘Now, that agent has been calling us and saying, ‘Do you want to make another offer?’ Michelle Bunting said.”

    If you don’t mind, Michelle, I’d like to take that call.

  16. ‘We’re kinda going back and forth every day,’ Castro said. ‘If there is a recession, how much will it affect home prices? Buying now means we can’t buy later.’”

    Buying now means you’ll be dining on cat food later, Julian.

  17. Also anyone with a jumbo loan in Washington state or a loan more than $741,000 may find it harder to qualify for a refinance.”

    Notwithstanding what the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed are doing, piling on more debt is never the solution.

      2. The ebola came to CS long ago.

        September 28, 2018

        The first of two Friday desk clearing posts starting with the US. “Local housing industry experts said the red-hot Colorado Springs real estate market is finally cooling off after several years of record sales and construction. Last week, the website realtors.com rated the 80922 ZIP code in northeast Colorado Springs as the second-hottest nationally for home purchases but that likely will change as ‘for sale’ signs become more common.”

        “Bill McAfee, of Empire Title, who has been closing home sales since 1991, said he doesn’t expect a market correction to be as significant as during the 2008 economic recession. ‘The market was so hot, it really had nowhere to go but down,’ he said. ‘What we saw the last few years here, and particularly this year, is nothing we’ve seen before.’”

        “The changing trend could help buyers like Aslan Guthrie, who closed on a home Thursday after looking for almost a year. ‘I finally got someone to accept my offer on a house that I liked,’ he said. ‘I guess other people offered more when I tried before. It’s been quite an experience, and I’m glad it’s over. I found what I wanted.’”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=121

        November 3, 2018

        The Colorado Springs Gazette. “Colorado Springs-area home prices rose again last month. Other key points in the October report include: Home sales totaled 1,320, a 7.8 percent, year-over-year decline and the eighth straight monthly drop in sales. The supply of homes for sale totaled 2,374 in October, up almost 23 percent on a year-over-year basis.”

        “Rick Van Wieren, a real estate agent with Re/Max Properties in Colorado Springs, said the overall single-family housing market remains ‘super healthy.’”

        “Yet, the 1.8-month supply of homes for sale is ‘well below what is typically termed a normal market,’ Van Wieren wrote. One result of the tight inventory: a ‘growing disparity’ between the median list price of homes for sale and the median price of properties that actually wind up selling, he said.”

        “‘This could point to a new affordability gap at the low end of the market,’ Van Wieren said. ‘As more affordable homes become scarce, buyers may be finding it more difficult to purchase the homes that are actually for sale.’”

        “The situation, however, isn’t a crisis, he said. Homes continue to sell even as mortgage rates have risen, Van Wieren said. And in some cases, sellers have recognized that buyers might have less purchasing power and therefore are dropping their asking prices — although sellers continue to have the upper hand for the most part, he said.”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=356

        December 5, 2018

        The Colorado Springs Gazette. “In November, Colorado Springs-area home sales totaled 1,096, down nearly 13 percent from the same month last year, says a new report by the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors. Sales now have fallen for nine straight months on a year-over-year basis.”

        “The city had 2,153 homes listed for sale in November, a 31 percent increase from a year earlier, the report showed.”

        “A tight supply of homes available for purchase has contributed to a months-long decline in sales, as has a traditional late-year slowdown in buying and selling, said Joe Clement, broker-owner of Re/Max Properties in Colorado Springs.”

        “‘It’s winter, it’s snowing, I’m not buying a house,’ he said of the mindset that takes hold late in the year.”

        “‘If you look back at 2012 or 2010, we’re looking good,’ Clement said. ‘It’s strong. The last couple of years have been extremely strong; 2017 was phenomenal. So to say we’re off from 2017, it’s not like it’s a time to panic because we’re not that far off.’”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=533

        January 9, 2019

        The Colorado Springs Gazette. “Though the pace of price hikes and sales slowed in the second half, the local market should remain healthy heading into the new year and even begin to favor buyers a little more after years of sellers having the upper hand, some real estate agents say.”

        “‘If things are overpriced, then they’re just not selling,’ said Donna Major, board chairwoman of the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors. ‘Buyers, I think, are wising up and not willing to overpay for a house. They’re willing to wait.’”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=729
        May 15, 2019

        The Colorado Springs Gazette. “Here’s a head-scratcher about the local housing market — and one that many homebuyers probably will find hard to believe. A National Association of Realtors report shows Colorado Springs median home prices actually declined during the first quarter of this year — dipping 0.1% to $296,400 from $296,600 during the same period last year.”

        “‘I don’t buy that,” said Harry Salzman of ERA Shields Real Estate and Salzman Real Estate Services, who tracks the national group’s reports. ‘There’s no way.’”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=1687

        April 4, 2020

        The Colorado Springs Gazette. “If home seekers who’ve lost jobs can’t qualify for mortgages or if jittery buyers stay put in rental properties rather than taking on hundreds or even thousands of dollars in monthly house payments, the single-family market could see its first downturn since the Great Recession.”

        “‘March seemed to be still strong, but I have a feeling it’s coming,’ said Carrie Bartow, board president of the Housing & Building Association of Colorado Springs. ‘People are not going to be able to qualify for mortgages or the person that could have qualified in February for a mortgage may not be able to qualify for a mortgage in May because of the change in their employment situation.’”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=3111

        1. The moral of this story is the HBB knows what’s happening, and you should learn here instead of opening your know nothing pie-hole.

          My comment to the September 2015 link:

          Ben Jones
          September 28, 2018

          Eeee-bola Colorado Springs and San Fernando Valley!

          1. That’s all great great but I live in 80922. Prices are not declining, certainly not cratering. Median sale prices rose 5.5% YOY Feb 19 to Feb 20.

            I am not trying to pick a fight but I live here, I see the houses go up for sale and close almost immediately at higher prices than the year before.

            As much as I would like to see a correction the market in Colorado Springs continues to rise. There is no crash, there is no crater.

          4. No Ii don’t think 80922 is immune. I am simply stating that is not happening now. I

            I am pointing out that the guy who keeps posting “Colorado Springs Cratering” is cherry picking one very expensive area in the forest with large plots (5+ acres and large house) OUTSIDE the city of Colorado Springs. The house are always above the CS median average home price.

            I see when I walk through my neighborhood and houses close within 2 weeks of being listed.
            Yes, I “See” it right here.
            https://www.zillow.com/colorado-springs-co-80922/home-values/
            Median Sale 80922 Price Feb 2019 301K
            Median Sale 80922 Price Feb 2020 327K
            8.6% increase in sales price.

          6. Eye likes Joe Kenda … solved alot of murders in Colorado Spring$!

            “Joseph Patrick Kenda is a retired Colorado Springs Police Department detective lieutenant who was involved in 387 homicide cases over a 23-year career, solving 356, a closure rate of 92%. He is featured on the Investigation Discovery television show Homicide Hunter, where he recounts stories of cases he has solved.”

            Retired & became a school bus driver! Awesome!

          7. “ I am simply stating that is not happening now”

            In other words “its different this time!” Every realtor knows that real estate only goes up, duh!

          8. Robert, I strongly suggest that you install the drumminj’s Joshua Tree extension for your browser. One of it’s features is that you can hide posts from people you find unhelpful.

        2. Prices fell 10% and cratering fast.

          It is what it is my good friend… It is what it is.

          1. Repeating the same lie over and over again does not make it true.

            I never said “It’s different this time” I am simply stating the “Cratering” everyone who doesn’t live in Colorado Springs thinks is happening here is not happening.

            As someone who would eventually like to buy a home here no one wants the bubble to burst more than me.

            It is simply not happening. I don’t understand why this is so hard to understand. Look at actual CS zip codes, median sale prices are up YOY 2019 to now.

          2. “Repeating the same lie over and over again does not make it true“

            Well you passed the realtor identifier test question #1 Bob. I will take my xray realtor vision goggles off here for a minute and respond. The key thing to look at is median sold price, do not focus on list prices because sellers have it in theirs heads that they have golden shacks and everyone is lined up to buy them. If you work with realtors you will be fed the fluff/ hype that they need to implant in your skull to get their commission checks. There are many people on this blog that are in CO and they also see the dream price listings but they also see the crater. Our current situation is providing the pin that will prick this over inflated bubble, eventually it will deflate and thats when youll see the FBs and banks pricing more realistically. Best advise i can offer is wait it out, it aint going to happen overnight but it’s happening!

          3. Ok, one more time for those you don’t actually read, they just respond:
            “Well you passed the realtor identifier test question #1 Bob. I will take my xray realtor vision goggles off here for a minute and respond. The key thing to look at is median sold price, ”

            I am not a realtor. Look at what I wrote:

            Median Sale 80922 Price Feb 2019 301K
            Median Sale 80922 Price Feb 2020 327K
            8.6% increase in sales price.

            SALES Price. Why so hard to understand?

          4. Median Sale 80922 Price Feb 2019 301K
            Median Sale 80922 Price Feb 2020 327K

            First, welcome aboard.

            Over on the east coast in places like Greenwich, Connecticut (and likely your lofty Colorado market too) the largest haircuts are happening at the top end of the market due to the $10k mortgage deduction cap. This blog, like myself, is counting on financial gravity to eventually pull housing prices back down to earth.

            Regarding the median prices cited above, are rising household incomes driving the increase in housing prices in your area?

          7. “Half the sales over the FHA loan limit?”

            What is the FHA loan guarantee limit in, “Rocky Mountain High, Colorado?”

          8. I don’t know what is driving the increases. I don’t think it’s rising pay. Most of the folks I work with and around did not receive more than a 2-3% pay increase last year.

            I suspect a lot of it folks priced out of Denver moving the Springs area. Higher median pay than here and after looking at Denver housing, houses in CS are a bargain. Also a steady jobs base (Air Force Academy +3 more AF bases +a huge Army base) may contribute a bit.

            Unless is all Denver folks I don’t have a clue who is affording these houses. I said the same thing when I lived in Phoenix just before the last bust. “Who the hell can afford 10% housing price increase every year”

            No idea what the FHA loan limit, doesn’t seem matter though, the houses here continue to sell fast (before the lock down)

            Again, I am not denying a slowdown, i am not cheer-leading “prices can only go up” I am simply stating it has not hit Colorado Springs, yet.

          9. “Again, I am not denying a slowdown…”

            You’ll need a few calluses to survive as the “thin-skinned” folks don’t last around these parts.

          10. Theme (unsure about exact frequency but guessing about every 2-3 months)
            Newcomer: “MB, you’re cherry picking data. That’s not happening in my neck of the woods.”
            Ben et al.: “Newcomer, it is. Get over it.” (references given)

          11. my neck of the woods

            Don’t dismiss how very very special Colorado Springs is. It’s different there. The (CS) UHS are pimping everything is up in March. Sure, the country in lockdown and it’s to the moon in CS.

            A daily commute from there to Denver would be worse than the CCP Flu.

          12. the country in lockdown

            And people losing jobs, but the UHS think/say people are pining for homes sitting from their couches just waiting to jump back in.

          13. “Theme (unsure about exact frequency but guessing about every 2-3 months)
            Newcomer: “MB, you’re cherry picking data. That’s not happening in my neck of the woods.”
            Ben et al.: “Newcomer, it is. Get over it.” (references given)”

            Except the articles Ben cited is years old and does not hold up to actual sales data in Colorado Springs. In the City of Colorado Springs, not some sifted through and cherry picked affluent area (Black Forest) with home prices WELL above the CS average.

            ”

            my neck of the woods

            “Don’t dismiss how very very special Colorado Springs is. It’s different there. The (CS) UHS are pimping everything is up in March. Sure, the country in lockdown and it’s to the moon in CS.
            A daily commute from there to Denver would be worse than the CCP Flu”
            Some one mentioned thin skin, it’s more like thick skulls. Does anyone actually read anything before commenting?

            I never said CS is special. I simply stated that the actual facts do not support the nonsensical statement that the market here is “Cratering” It is not. Look at the sales data for CS Zip codes from ’19-’20

            Take 5 mins and actually read, or do some actual a research instead of just smugly declaring a crash that must be true cause you believe it is.

          14. “I don’t know what is driving the increases“

            You answered it here:

            “I suspect a lot of it folks priced out of Denver moving the Springs area“.

            You can also factor in the CA and other states equity locusts infesting CS as 300-400k is a bargain for a shelter shack for them. Used home sale people love these out of towner easy commissions. Responding to Mr Blocks is a dead end road. I look at his comments as amusement rather than factual data points, there are plenty of other commenters here that provide undoubtedly accurate real estate news, particularly in respects to the cratering / bubble, as well as intellectual financial and world news. If your one of the smart financial savers out there you should fare well with your goal if you are patient.

          16. Responding to Mr Blocks is a dead end road.

            And we go down that road with newcomers every few months.

  19. ‘The sky has fallen,’ said Frances Katzen, a residential broker at real estate agent Douglas Elliman.

    I just took a look outside, Frances, and the sky is where it’s always been.

    1. Although she is a hard core lefty she did have a beautiful voice, not to mention she was good friends with Lowell George and she did possess many of the qualities coveted by the superficial heterosexual male, so even with the Jerry Brown fling I still like a lot of her songs and covers.

      Linda Ronstadt – It Doesn t Matter Anymore

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGQXTJQTLM0

  21. Does anyone else feel like there are parallels between what is happening with the covid virus and what is happening in the economy? I watched what was happening in China, and saw so many people in the US kind of aware but in denial that something so awful can happen here. I also sense that people can’t really imagine the worst that can happen in our lives. It’s like our country is full of frogs who have been sitting in a pot full of water that has been gradually going up in temperature for years. And there’s no concept of what it means to be boiled alive. People either don’t bother to look at documentaries about the 1918 epidemic, or they look and they can’t even imagine that such a thing can happen here. Those movies are all in black and white. That was different.
    Also with the virus, even after what we saw happen in China, the public was coddled and told all is good, just continue on as usual and wash your hands. No one wants to be responsible for alarming the public, for warning them that something bad that they’ve never experienced before can happen in their communities. Instead, we’re supposed to have faith that this will be solved and things will be back up and running again in a few months. Aside from the fact that Trump did warn that the economy was in a bubble 4 years ago and that it would burst if the interest rates went up, no one in authority will step up and warn people that the real hard times are coming, and what they would look like.

    1. I also sense that people can’t really imagine the worst that can happen in our lives.

      I think the working class that has been taking it in the shorts for decades now can make a much more accurate estimate of how bad things can get than the upper class bubble surfers. Although you’re right that even they might be quite surprised before it’s over.

      1. I would totally agree. I spent most of my life in the working class and only in the last 3 years have live as upper middle class. These people up here are crazy optimistic about their fortunes.

        1. They have an entitlement mentality and a general cluelessness about the financial difficulties in the lives of “regular” people.

        2. These people up here are crazy optimistic about their fortunes.

          I can see how it’s easy to be optimistic when the Fed always has your back and therefore everything you try makes money. They just need a little more imagination when it comes to what might happen if/when that stops workout out so well.

    2. “Those movies are all in black and white. ”

      That’s because back then the WORLD was black and white. Everything turned to color sometime in the 1930s.
      (sorry, couldn’t resist. Bonus points if you get the reference.)

      OK that said, I don’t believe this was all some nefarious plot. The public was told all was good because the idiots at the CDC treated this like the flu. That is, they didn’t believe the stories of asymptomatic transmission coming from China. So their advice was based on every other disease: no fever no sickie (false), stay home if you have symptoms (too late), wash your hands (nope, droplet-borne).

      But I do agree that the powers that be are clearly spending their quarantine time hatching nefarious plots to use the virus to bail them out of their debauchery. The problem is, at some level they control almost everybody’s 401K and they are holding us all hostage.

      1. “Everything turned to color sometime in the 1930s.”

        It was immediately following the twister that picked up Dorothy from Kansas and gently transported her to the Land of Oz.

          1. In the case of TV, yes. I grew up in envy of the neighborhood kid whose parents who could afford a color TV and my cousins who had a microwave.

      3. “Everything turned to color sometime in the 1930s….Bonus points if you get the reference.”

        Calvin and Hobbes, yes? Still have the books and I credit that particular strip with my motivation for lobbing similar head-scratchers at my son!

    1. I think all of this stuff really begs the question: What is an acceptable rate of death, if there is one, and who determines it? Should we ever shut the economy down?

      1. What is an acceptable rate of death

        3 million. That’s what we’re used to.

        It’s more a question of what’s an acceptable level of fear.

        1. Hospital capacity is a consideration. Once it is overwhelmed, the death rate goes up due to the lack of available treatment resources. That’s where curve flattening matters.

      2. It’s a good question. I’ve often wondered about the 50k or so historical annual auto accident deaths in the US (now down to around 35k). No one seems to call for banning cars and trucks, so apparently this level is acceptable.

        Not only that, but we get constant harangues from politicians about needing to “invest” in “infrastructure” such as roads and bridges. The effect of all this government spending on roads is to make car travel a practical necessity for most people.

      3. “3 million. That’s what we’re used to.”

        88,000 because liquor stores are considered ‘essential’ business during the COVID-19 pandemic.

        Alcohol Use in the United States:

        An estimated 88,000 people (approximately 62,000 men and 26,000 women die from alcohol-related causes annually, making alcohol the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States. The first is tobacco, and the second is poor diet and physical inactivity.

        In 2014, alcohol-impaired driving fatalities accounted for 9,967 deaths (31 percent of overall driving fatalities).

        https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/brochures-and-fact-sheets/alcohol-facts-and-statistics

    2. Alex Berenson
      ✔
      @AlexBerenson
      “Yes. But. In February I was worried about the virus. By mid-March I was more scared about the economy. But now I’m starting to get genuinely nervous. This isn’t complicated. The models don’t work. The hospitals are empty. WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INDEFINITE LOCKDOWNS?”

      Amen

      1. WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INDEFINITE LOCKDOWNS?”

        Because:

        1. Moar bailout can be had
        2. FED not done with power grab
        3. Vote by mail

        1. Vote by mail is great. Have done it as long as I’ve lived here. Super convenient and I get an email tracking when it’s been received and counted.

          “The U.S. state of Oregon established vote-by-mail as the standard mechanism for voting with Ballot Measure 60, a citizen’s initiative, in 1998. The measure made Oregon the first state in the United States to conduct its elections exclusively by mail. The measure passed on November 3, 1998, by a margin of 69.4% to 30.6%.”

    3. I still have yet to hear anyone that I know or have talked to that knows anyone that has this thing. Colleges from work based out if china said the same but they are following peotocol. It seems like some big social experiment to me but of course i am bias to base my conclusions with zero first hand evidence and my level of trust for the media and our governments is dismal at best.

      1. Just yesterday I learned through the family grapevine that there’s a case in the Assisted Living section of my parents’ retirement community. I am not sure how worried to be, as my parents are walled off under quarantine in an Independent Living apartment in a different building. But it’s not a good development.

        1. Are they providing tests to all the folks living and working there? What preventative measures are they taking aside from walled off quarantine? If this is as contagious as we are led to believe i would think disinfectant and isolation will prevent further spreading and your parents and others will hopefully avoid exposure.

      2. Hopkins counts about a half-million confirmed cases in the US. Even if you assume that only 1/10 of the cases are being tested and confirmed, that’s at most 5 million infections. Out of a country of 320 million, that’s still only 3 people out of every 200 who are infected, and some of those were completely asymptomatic.

        How many people do you know? If you have something like 200 friends, family, coworkers, acqaintences total, maybe 2 of them will have this. So it’s easy to see why you wouldn’t know anyone.

        By the way, % of infections who are asymptomatic or very mild cases is all over the map, depending on the study. I really think this is an inoculation issue.

    4. It would appear from the data that the lockdown is saving today’s seniors, the richest generations in U.S. history.

      And sacrificing those coming after, whose life expectancy was already falling.

      Thus being consistent with everything that had gone before.

      At least this should be said.

      1. Us seniors will have to come out from under our beds eventually.

        I don’t see how I’m throwing my younger generation under the bus.

  24. “A US housing crisis is coming and although it won’t be anything like the last one.”

    Lots of qualifiers in that paragraph. I see we’re still in the denial phase…

    1. I wouldn’t call what’s coming a “crisis” by any stretch of the imagination. Loanowners will enter financial purgatory, but that was the gamble they signed up for. Cheap housing is a blessing, not a curse.

      1. Housing crisis: my children might be able to save on their rent, and perhaps at least buy a 2 BR condo some day. But the financial sector will take losses and older sellers will settle for less money.

        That is what they are trying to avoid.

  26. “Mike and his wife live in Southern Maryland and run a photo-booth rental business…The couple managed to make April’s mortgage payment, but they’ll struggle in the months to come. ”

    It doesn’t sound like “photo-booth rental business” is very lucrative. They’re small business owners yet that quickly they’re broke? I guess they saved nothing for a rainy day.

    1. Lots of HS and college reunions had them, corporate functions, used to be a requirement at bat/bar mitzvahs

    2. Given that everyone has a smartphone and a selfie stick, wouldn’t these photo booths go the way the buggie whip?

      I was once shopping at the mall and saw a “selfie spot.” Wha? It was basically a booth with good lighting and a gold glitter background. Evidently you were supposed to stand there and take a selfie so you could post your mall haul later on Instagram, or some such nonsense.

      1. I was once shopping at the mall and saw a “selfie spot.”

        Most likely the Marketing team in action.

        -“How do we drum up more business?”
        -“I know, teenage girls love shopping. They also love posting selfies. Combine the two and bam more volume.”

      2. How many casualties have been caused by idiots trying to capture selfies from bridges, balconies and cliffs? Let’s ban Instagram.

  27. Pyramid scheme remember, early participants made out, middle and late to the game lost it all.

    If you sold your home in Jan to very early March you made out, after that I’m afraid many are now late to the game and will be pancaked, this will be housing and bank disaster?

  31. The FED has “gone 2008 on steroids.” I am having a hard time understanding how that wall of liquidity can’t prop up a lot of asset prices.

    2. We will revisit this topic when the unemployment rate for April comes out in a few weeks, probably somewhere north of 15%. Asset bubbles never last through depressions.

  32. (Just thought.)

    Concerning the wearing of protective masks while out in public:

    If everyone is wearing masks then the virus has to overcome the protective qualities of two masks in order for it to be transmitted from one person to another. But if one person is not wearing a mask then the virus only has to overcome the protective quality of only one mask.

    This rule applies whether the one who is not wearing the mask is the transmitter of the virus or is the receiver of the virus.

    1. “Concerning the wearing of protective masks while out in public:”

      Police release video of deadly home invasion in Chicago area involving masked men

      Published 8 hours ago
      Arlington HeightsSun-Times Media Wire

      ARLINGTON HEIGHTS – Arlington Heights police have released home surveillance video that shows a home invasion in which a homeowner shot and killed one of the armed assailants.

      Doorbell video of the April 4 fatal encounter in the north suburb, obtained through a Freedom of Information, shows two men wearing surgical masks and gloves ring the doorbell of a home on North Evergreen Avenue. Unedited video was leaked on the internet days ago.

      Police say the two assailants, Bradley Finnan and Larry Brodacz, were armed with a gun and knife when they forced their way into the home with the intent to rob the family.

      But the homeowner fought back, chasing Finnan outside and punching him to the ground, as seen in the video.

      The homeowner then returns inside the home, out of view of the camera, where police said he found Brodacz pointing a gun at his wife and two children, police said.

      The homeowner retrieved the family gun from a safe and confronted Brodacz, police said. During a struggle, the homeowner fired a single shot into Brodacz’s abdomen. He fell to the ground and died in the home, police said.

      https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/police-release-video-of-deadly-home-invasion-in-chicago-area-involving-masked-men

      1. “He fell to the ground and died in the home, police said.”

        +1 One less vote from the free schitt army!

  33. I have not haunted this forum for awhile, since I no longer plan to buy US housing. But the crisis and how to protect one’s assets (and thereby one’s family) rests on whether this becomes (and stays) a deflationary bust or whether the money printing orgy leads to (hyper)inflation.

    The best argument I have seen for stagflation or worse is George Gammon’s video ‘Is the US the Japan?’.
    When you’re making an assessment about which way this thing goes, I find information like this (backed by substantial, relevant data) to be indispensable.

    1. It reads a lot like the forbearance deal — if you had the ability to pay that much back that quickly, why would you even need to do it in the first place?

    3. “entertaining overflow” “this 4 bedroom home will wow you when it is complete” “exceptional finishes will be as if it was a custom home”

      Quite the imagination.

  36. I’m hearing Doctors on the web saying that the only way to get rid of C19 is to allow the herd immunity.

    The high risk for death need to be isolated and anti vitals can help with treatment.

    A big campaign on how to improve your immune health is in order, as opposed to a vaccine .

    About 300 million die per year in the USA from all causes and we don’t shut down for this.

    It’s just getting nuts that these Doctors with their false models think they can just shut down the World and prevent this virus from it cycle of herd immunity.
    And now you are getting this burden on industry that if they get any cases of this virus they are subject to law suits.
    Doctors running the World would be weird. It’s fine to shore up the medical system and give them the equipment they need. Give them moon suits if need.be.

    Now in California they have announced shut down until at least May 15th. Governors that want to open earlier are being accused of being killers.

    I’m just so shocked and dismayed over 20 million jobs being dumped.

    1. Correct me if I’m wrong , but these Doctors in control right now seem to be saying to shut down Society until a cure or vaccine is developed.

      If this virus had a 50 percent death rate I could see some extreme measures needed

      1. Hopefully this calculation is misleading due to bad data, etc. But:

        U.S. coronavirus deaths 20,601

        U.S. recovered cases 32,026

        U.S. death rate as a share of resolved cases
        20601/(20601+32026) = 39%

        I know there are various reasons why this calculation may be misleading as an estimate of the death rate:
        – imperfect count of coronavirus deaths
        – error in test results that determines case counts
        – deaths happen sooner than recoveries on average, implying that a higher proportion of the unresolved cases will eventually recover than the 61% of resolved cases.

        1. recovered cases

          As far as I can figure, a meaningless number. Tested positive, ICU, tested negative, sent home? Who knows.

          1. You seem to suggest that if numbers cannot be precisely nailed down, they should be ignored.

            With an estimated half a million cases and 20,000 deaths over a couple of months, we can’t afford to ignore the data, however imperfect it may be.

          2. “…tested negative…”

            Unless I’m totally missing something, people who tested negative don’t count as recovered, which means “had coronavirus and got better.” Am I oversimplifying this?

          3. tested negative don’t count as recovered

            Even after recovery?

            I mean that I don’t know what the “recovered” statistic is, how it’s determined, or even if it is regularly kept. We all have different perspectives, some want a “%” display, some want meaning, and when I told my GF I bought a new truck, she wanted to know what color.

    2. at least May 15th

      AFAIK, that’s only LA county. Does a mayor even have that kind of power?

      2. Newsom’s original stay at home order was until further notice. Again, not sure why or with what authority Garcetti is acting.

    3. About 300 million die per year in the USA from all causes and we don’t shut down for this

      3 million.

      2. 3 million U.S. deaths due to diverse uncontrollable causes is not a relevant comparison to a pandemic death toll.

        We’d shut down if 3 million deaths were anticipated to occur due to a pandemic, and apparently even if the anticipated number of deaths without shutting down was over 100,000.

        1. It is relevant. Three months into this and the supposed death toll due to CCP-V is 20,000.

          20,000/3,020,000 = 0.007

          Is that a number that should make the USA go hide under the bed?

          If the total deaths in the US comes in below 3,000,000, then what were we doing? Governor Cuomo is certainly asking this question already. So is the President, God help him.

          2. Comparing the deaths due to a specific, controllable cause over a few weeks’ time to the national number of deaths due to all causes, including uncontrollable ones like old age, is like comparing apples to oranges. If you put the number of U.S. coronavirus deaths over the past week on an annual basis (52 × 10,000 = 520,000), you get closer to a relevant comparison.

          4. If you don’t like annualized numbers, you turn the 3 million into a weekly average rate:

            3 million / 52 = 57,700

            10,000/57,700 = 17% bump in the average weekly U.S. death rate.

          5. A couple of more dangerous maths ideas to ponder:

            1) The weekly COVID-19 U.S. death rate is up to around 10,000 (520,000 annualized) and was growing rapidly the last time I checked.
            2) It would presumably be higher without quarantine measures. If you want to know how much higher, you’ll have to rely on the estimates of mathematical modelers who do counterfactual analysis, as we can’t rerun history with a different policy in effect to compare outcomes.

  37. jeff
    March 14, 2020 at 9:34 am
    “but it’s still a shockingly high infection rate.”

    Since the CDC didn’t know (and still doesn’t) the umber of those infected and killed by the 2009 – 2010 H1N1 virus, I was wondering how you and the people you are quoting already know the infection rate and death rates of the coronavirus?

    1. Let’s agree the data are imperfect but are correct to within an order of magnitude (i.e. “about” half a million of those who were tested were / are infected).

Comments are closed.