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What A Buyer Knows Is, They Have To Sell

A report from Bloomberg. “The nascent market for private U.S. mortgages is teetering on the brink of collapse as the coronavirus crisis imperils years of work to lessen the government’s role in home lending. Several firms that issue mortgage bonds without federal guarantees have laid off most of their staffs and stopped doing business as the economy grinds to a halt. And the once-burgeoning market for securities that shift risk from government-backed agencies to private investors has also stalled, with some traders saying they’ve had trouble even getting prices.”

“Many of the companies that led growth in privately-backed mortgages aren’t doing business at all right now. Part of the problem for private mortgage lenders is that their own banks, which give them short-term loans to fund mortgages, either cut their credit lines or made them significantly more expensive.”

“Some credit-risk transfer security investors have also lobbied the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie and Freddie, to let the mortgage giants either buy back some of the securities at a discount or establish their own short-term lending facilities, according to one investor who requested anonymity to discuss the private conversations.”

“The investor acknowledged that such a move could seem counter to the point of transferring risk, which was to have private investors bear the risk of losses in downturns. But the person said the market is still so nascent and relatively illiquid that this crunch could drive some investors away permanently.”

From Realtor.com. “When Nicholas Dahl, 36, called Chase Bank to find out about his options for mortgage forbearance at the end of March, an automated voice informed him the wait time would be 43 hours and 45 minutes. Dahl, who runs his family’s art transportation business, hasn’t been able to draw a paycheck since all nonessential businesses in Illinois were shuttered on March 21 due to the coronavirus pandemic. And he doesn’t know how much longer he and his wife will be able to keep making payments on the three-bedroom house in the Chicago suburbs where they’re raising their 8-year-old daughter.”

“After three hours and 45 minutes on hold, and several times where he heard a woman saying ‘hello’ before going back to the call music, he finally hung up. He emailed the bank for information instead. Chase responded that he could receive mortgage forbearance for 90 days. During those three months, Dahl wouldn’t have to make his payments and wouldn’t incur late fees, get reported to credit agencies, or risk foreclosure. But once that period was over? All of the missed payments would come due at once.”

“‘I don’t really think it’s worth it,’ says Dahl, who’s losing about $5,000 in income each month his business is closed. ‘I don’t really want to pay four mortgage payments in one.'”

“Since the crisis began, Seattle-area business owner and author Debrena Jackson Gandy’s income has dropped by about 30%. Her husband, an Uber driver, has seen his take-home pay fall by about 40%. And the couple were worried about paying both the first and second mortgages on their four-bedroom home in the Seattle suburb of Des Moines, WA.”

“So in late March, Jackson Gandy, 53, called her mortgage companies. The first one, where she has her primary mortgage, agreed to defer her April payment and add an extra payment onto the end of her loan. But her experience with Bank of America, where she has her smaller, second mortgage, didn’t go as smoothly. The representative she spoke with offered her three months of forbearance instead. She could apply for a loan modification at the end of that period. There was no guarantee it would be granted.”

“‘It was really shocking,’ says Jackson Gandy. She runs Masterminds, a personal and organizational development company that hosts events, some of which have been moved online while others have been cancelled. ‘If one month is a challenge, then how can I pay four months at once?’ she asks.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Roughly half of U.S. households have no emergency savings, according to a Federal Reserve survey released last year. Those that do may not have enough. Almost 60% said they couldn’t tap into rainy-day funds, borrow from family and friends or sell something to cover three months of living expenses. Before the coronavirus spread, when work was plentiful, it was easy to look past the savings shortage. But after at least 17 million people lost their jobs in recent weeks, many of those without much financial cushion will struggle to make ends meet.”

“Economists point to two main reasons for the savings shortage. First, incomes for all but the highest-income Americans have been stagnant or falling for decades. Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%. The second reason has to do with the continuing effects of the debt households accumulated before the 2007-09 recession.”

“After losing her job in the 2007-09 recession, Tureka Dixon, 43, studied to become a certified glazier, learning how to sheath office buildings in glass. As recently as a few weeks ago she was earning enough to support herself and her two sons in Philadelphia while setting a little bit aside. A divorce and an unexpected surgery last year cost her some of her savings, but she had a plan to rebuild. On March 20, she got laid off and by the middle of last week was down to $600, enough for groceries through the end of the month but not much more. The mortgage and other bills would have to wait.”

“‘I was on the road to get myself back on track,’ she said. ‘I had it all figured out but then this happened. And it’s like a shock. It sets all your plans back.'”

From CNBC. “A crucial indicator of homebuilder sentiment just suffered its biggest monthly drop in the index’s 35-year history as the coronavirus pandemic hammered the American economy. Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to a reading of 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012, according to the latest National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Looking at builder sentiment regionally, the HMI in the Northeast fell 45 points to 19. In the Midwest it dropped 42 points to 25, in the South it fell 42 points to 34, and in the West it dropped 47 points to 32.”

From CBS 5 in Arizona. “Take a look around, and it appears the housing market in the Phoenix area is still steady. But many real estate professionals say the pandemic has actually brought a change the Phoenix market has been needing. Lance Billingsley, a realtor, says before the coronavirus, there were just 10,000 homes available for sale in the area. ‘Before COVID-19 hit, we were at record low levels of 10,000 houses in a city that has 7 million people in it. Ten thousand is a shrunken market,’ he said. But since the pandemic, the number of homes has jumped to more than 14,000 available for sale.”

“‘What a buyer knows is that the seller is serious. They have to sell. I mean, who wants to sell when there’s a pandemic going on,’ Billingsley said. With more homes for sale, prices are expected to stabilize. ‘It’s still a seller’s market. Let’s not be confused by that. But in a month, the leverage has very much changed to the other team,’ he said.”

From Arlington Now in Virginia. “Haven’t seen your dream property pop up on our Just Reduced list? A proactively reduced price shouldn’t deter your aspirations and goals. In many cases, sellers are willing to negotiate on price, even if they aren’t the ones making the first move publicly. And, in some cases, sellers are willing to budge even more (sometimes much more) from a Just Reduced price to make a sale happen.”

From Forbes. “If your idea of bliss is embarking to a place where you can watch stars twinkling in the night sky or a fast-running stream winding its way through a meadow, a sprawling estate in a remote corner of the Sierra Nevada mountain range is the perfect place to start. Known as The Cedars, the 93.6-acre property is about five miles south of Graeagle, California, and about an hour from Lake Tahoe. The property, which was subdivided from an 800-acre ranch, has been relisted for $25 million after a $30 million price cut.”

From Patch Massachusetts. “This foreclosed property on Winthrop Street has dropped to under $700,000. The West Medford home features five bedrooms, cathedral ceilings, a spiral staircase, finished basement and more. It just needs some TLC from the new owner. Features: Foreclosure property. Seller wants to assign contract. This is a very rare opportunity to own an expansive home in a premier West Medford location. Custom built circa 1930s. Yes, this property needs work, but this is a property every smart, capable and adventurous home seeker should see.”

This Post Has 111 Comments
  1. Housing Market
    Pandemic Hits Local Housing Market: Listings Down and Taking Longer to Sell
    “It’s certainly a setback,” one broker said. “Everything has stopped or slowed.”
    By Alexis Rivas
    • Published April 13, 2020
    • Updated on April 13, 2020 at 10:14 pm
    San Diego Realtors Feeling the Pinch During Pandemic
    NBCUniversal, Inc.

    NBC 7’s Alexis Rivas spoke to realtors who said the market has slowed considerably.

    The coronavirus pandemic has claimed another victim: San Diego’s once red-hot housing market has at least temporarily hit the ice, said Andy Nelson, president of Willis Allen Real Estate.

    “With the pandemic, everything has stopped or slowed, to the point where there is minimal activity,” said Nelson, a long-time local real estate broker.

    Nelson said the housing slowdown is fueling anxiety in the local real estate community, where agents until recently enjoyed bigger and more frequent commissions, in a very active housing market.

    1. There are a lot of people and businesses in what could be called a “holding pattern.” They are simply waiting to see what’s going to happen with this virus, the economy, etc.

      While stimulus has stemmed some of the bleeding, it has not entirely replaced cash flow, so there is still a need for it. In turn, it seems rather foolish to not cut pricing or, worse, actually remove a product from the for sale market. Most are taking a shotgun to their own foot.

  2. Last decade it took the MSM a few months to realize they had to shape history to exonerate the various scumbags involved. Not now, they are distorting it real time.

    The title from UHS.com article:

    Mortgage Forbearance Is Not All It’s Cracked Up To Be—Here’s the Ugly Truth

    Not a word about their shameless boosterism, fear of missing out horse-hockey. Refund the commissions – oh hell no.

    I’ll point out an even big whopper in the WSJ report later. I have so much material I plan on a CRE post later and an international post after that.

    1. From the WSJ article:

      ‘Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%.’

      Wages haven’t meaningfully increased in decades.

      ‘The second reason has to do with the continuing effects of the debt households accumulated before the 2007-09 recession. A new paper by Atif Mian, of Princeton University, Ludwig Straub of Harvard University and Amir Sufi of The University of Chicago found that rising income inequality over the past few decades created the conditions that fed the rise in debt held by lower-income households in the early 2000s.’

      ‘As higher-earning families saw their incomes grow, they amassed more and more savings. Those savings helped keep interest rates low and spark a borrowing boom that inflated the housing bubble, the paper said.’

      This is just horsesh$t and the WSJ knows it. We all know who suppressed interest rates for decades. You can see them building a narrative as we go along.

      ‘The debt of the poorest Americans more than doubled during the housing bubble of the 2000s, Fed data show. After the bubble burst, borrowers spent several years paying down those loans, which reduced their ability to save.’

      ‘The longer the economy remains shut down, the harder it will be for people to get back on their feet, said Abigail Wozniak, a senior economist at the Minneapolis Fed.’

      We’ll add your name to the scumbag list Abigail. You and the other globalists set up this fine mess and this blog isn’t going to let you forget it.

      1. She is a scumbag. I don’t even think a Fed Chairman would try blaming low interest rates on savers.

        It really feels like the tide is still going out before the 500 foot Tsunami hits. Is the 90 day forbearance really just a way for the banks to say they did something while merely putting off the reckoning?

        1. “…Is the 90 day forbearance really just a way for the banks to say they did something…”

          The [lending] climate is sure going to be interesting 90 days from now.

          Me thinks the banks will just stack (90, 180, 270, etc) more forbearances. Problem is, when the ballon finally pops (and it will) its going to be even louder and more [financially] destructive.

          I just don’t see an escape route, save additional multi-multi-multi trillions handed out by Congress, so we all can pay?

      2. ‘Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%.’

        A very painful truth bomb, which highlights just how ludicrous these house prices really are.

        1. That’s with more household members in the workforce and higher educational attainment, by the way.

          “I was on the road to get myself back on track,’ she said. ‘I had it all figured out but then this happened. And it’s like a shock. It sets all your plans back.”

          What happens when hundreds of millions of people realize they are permanently, irrevocably screwed? And all they got out of voting for Trump was more tax cuts for the rich and corporations, and another asset price bailout.

          1. Housing prices are falling irrespective of “bailouts”.

            Indian Shores, FL Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Gulf Coast Housing Market Shrinks On Rampant Mortgage And Appraisal Fraud

            https://www.movoto.com/indian-shores-fl/market-trends/

            As one Tampa area broker conceded, “If you’re a buyer, the broker is lying to you. I know a liar when I hear one. I’ve been lying my entire life.”

          2. “And all they got out of voting for Trump was more tax cuts for the rich and corporations, and another asset price bailout.”

            That means po’ folks should be in an S&P500 fund, and like the retired they’re in a really low tax bracket. It’s all doable if you can get your spending in order.

        2. Don’t forget that the price bid in recent years has been set by the likes of subprime borrowers, all-cash Chinese investors, and AirBnB moguls, to name a few of the transient categories of demand which recently disappeared. Without these categories of fly-by-night buyers in the game, the bid distribution has effectively collapsed.

  3. Going to rank Texas as ground zero for this housing bust…Don’t come back to California

      1. With the way housing prices are tanking in California, it’s likely to be the low cost destination for a generation or more.

      2. And if they can, they were spoiled by what they got for their money in TX regarding quality, square footage and acreage.

        1. “The junkiest construction I have ever seen was in California.”

          AZ has some “cheap-ash” low-pitch tar roof Eichler home neighborhoods that were quite literately slapped-up 40-yrs ago that today have ZERO curb appeal. Add some chickens walking around on top of dead cars and dogs at large, and…yeah, you get the idea.

          1. Yeah, I saw some shite construction when I lived in Phoenix during the last bust. I the house I lived in (old GF at the time) was brand new and total junk. Slapped together as fast as possible to supply the bubble. Outlets not wired correctly, 1/2 the breakers melted in the first 6 months due to incorrect wiring, leaky roof, failed AC compressor in the 2nd year, etc.

            Total junk, total money pit.

  4. “Features: Foreclosure property. Seller wants to assign contract. This is a very rare opportunity to own an expansive home in a premier West Medford location. Custom built circa 1930s. Yes, this property needs work,…”

    Sounds like a steal at only $700,000.

  5. ‘Many of the companies that led growth in privately-backed mortgages aren’t doing business at all right now. Part of the problem for private mortgage lenders is that their own banks, which give them short-term loans to fund mortgages, either cut their credit lines or made them significantly more expensive’

    Over-night borrowing facilities, making 30 year loans. And this wasn’t mentioned a gazillion times, including before congress?

    ‘Some credit-risk transfer security investors have also lobbied the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie and Freddie, to let the mortgage giants either buy back some of the securities at a discount or establish their own short-term lending facilities, according to one investor who requested anonymity to discuss the private conversations’

    See, the cry-baby, “bail me out, whaaa!” is in full stride. Eat yer sh$t sandwiches, you greedy pigs!

    1. http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/04142020-jumbo-loans.aspx

      ‘Doc Products; Jumbo and Specialty Products Continue to Crumble; 3.74% Loans in Forbearance’

      See, it isn’t 25% as the MBA says. These clowns can’t handle under 4% for 90 days? Give me a break.

      ‘The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans in forbearance jumped from 2.73% to 3.74% during the week of March 30 to April 5. To no one’s surprise mortgages backed by Ginnie Mae showed the largest weekly growth (1.58%) and the largest overall share in forbearance requests by investor type (5.89%), while independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers continue to have a higher share of loans in forbearance (4.17%).’

      Ginnie Mae is FHA which is subprime.

      ‘Flagstar’s correspondent clients received a note about it products. “… we believe it is prudent to focus resources on our core products. As a result, Flagstar will be temporarily suspending the following products. We will honor loans which have already been submitted to underwriting and are locked on or before Friday, April 17. Lock extensions and re-locks will not be permitted after April 17; please manage your pipeline accordingly. No new submissions to underwriting will be accepted.’

      ‘Caliber spread the word that for loans closed on or after April 23, 2020, all borrowers must execute its COVID-19 Attestation or similar attestation within 3 days of closing. The attestation must be signed by the borrower and must contain: Income used to qualify is unchanged and not impacted, borrower is not aware of any future changes in employment status or income that will affect the ability to repay, and language that informs the borrower that forbearance is not a substitute for the ability to repay. Such attestation must be included in the closed loan delivery file.’

      ‘Due to the ongoing impact of COVID-19, Caliber Home Loans is temporarily suspending its renovation products effective with Commitment Confirmations issued on or after April 5, 2020. New submissions for renovation loans will not be accepted as of April 5, 2020. The suspension is effective for all renovation products including FHA 203(K) and FNMA Homestyle.’

      ‘As a result of risks resulting from COVID-19, Wells Fargo Funding will not purchase Loans where a Borrower has requested forbearance, or is currently in a forbearance plan, effective for all Loans purchased on and after April 4, 2020. Wells Fargo will conduct a review of previously purchased Loans to validate investor salability.’

      Rats and a sinking ship.

      1. “Rats and a sinking ship.”

        Exactly what I would expect from those engage in fraud of that scope and size.

        1. Rats and a sinking ship. Recent news articles mention that NYC rats are warring on each other and eating each other due to rat food shortages.

  6. ‘The nascent market for private U.S. mortgages is teetering on the brink of collapse as the coronavirus crisis imperils years of work to lessen the government’s role in home lending’

    Jeebus it’s getting deep. ‘imperils years of work to lessen the government’s role in home lending’? Just who in the swamp was doing a gotdam thing to get rid of the guberment loan scam except the current administration, with congress doing everything to keep the current situation in place? Bloomberg is globalist too.

    Wages have been too low because of globalism. Gambling on shacks was the one casino where you didn’t have to have money. And when it blows up, blame it on a virus, or whatever is convenient. Not the central banks, not globalism itself.

    1. “Just who in the $wamp was doing a gotdam thing to get rid of the guberment loan $cam except the current admini$tration”

      Ju$t.thee.tax.fact$, mame!
      $ad. … “$wamp$.knot.drained!” $ad.

      Trump and Ku$hner could reap a pandemic windfall$

      WP / By Dana Milbank
      Columnist / April 14, 2020

      As the du$t settle$ on the $2.2 trillion$ legi$lation, it has become clear that one of its large$t provision$, a $170 billion tax giveaway, appears to be tailor-made for the benefit of wealthy real e$tate investor% such as President Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who is running one of Trump’s coronaviru$ task forces.

      Worse, the bonanza for these millionaires and billionaires has little to do with the coronavirus: It lets them offset losses not just from 2020 but from 2018 and 2019, before the pandemic.
      But this provision gives tax filers who earn more than $1 million a year an average windfall of $1.6 million this year alone. (Compare that with the $1,200 break the average wage earner gets.), the Joint Committee on Taxation found that 82 percent of the benefit of this and another tax giveaway in the coronavirus relief bill will go to the 43,000 taxpayers who earn more than $1 million — and just 3 percent to those who earn less than $100,000.

      But the president is free to benefit from the tax break in the package, negotiated by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin with congressional leaders, for pass-throughs (which are taxed via the individual income of their owners rather than in the form of corporate income taxes).
      Real estate developers, a major component of pass-through businesses, received $67 billion in tax breaks in the 2017 Trump tax cuts, partially offset by new limits on the losses that could be deducted. The new law gets rid of the limits — a conservative goal for the past few years.

  7. ‘While there have been very few silver linings to the coronavirus pandemic, one that has emerged is a massive over-supply of cheap avocado in supermarkets at the moment. It makes sense if you think about it, with millennials well-known for loving buying smashed avo on toast from cafes instead of saving for housing deposits.’

    ‘According to Pedestrian, between 10% and 20% of all avocado sales in Australia usually go straight to cafes, restaurants and the hospitality business in general. Obviously that’s not happening now, what with the wide-spread closures of heaps of small businesses including cafes.’

    ‘In addition, plenty of Aussie avos that are usually exported are finding their way to stores near you. So what’s the result of all of this? Well there’s a surplus of avos in supermarkets and they’re cheaper than ever!’

    https://thebrag.com/coronavirus-panic-buying-avocado-surplus/

    1. ‘Cucumbers: from a flying start to not selling at auction’

      “The Dutch cucumber season was off to a flying start. Cucumbers of good quality and color came from under the lights. Until week 9, there were low, unpredictable Dutch and Spanish supplies. In Spain, that was caused by low temperatures and the storm, “Gloria”. It hit at the beginning of the year. From week 6 to 10, almost every week started with slight pressure on the prices. Disappointing volumes would follow. And a price increase would be noted at the end of the week.”

      “We saw an increase in smaller sizes this year. That is due to the gloomy weather. The m2 yield has been low too. In short, until week 10, cucumber prices were good. This was combined with somewhat lower yields and normal sales. From week 10, Spanish production was at normal levels for that time of year. The Netherlands was also in full production,” says Ton, in retrospect.’

      “But, the uncertainty struck the market during week 11. The coronavirus turned the market upside down. In week 12’s first days, we witnessed the panic-buying at retailers. That pushed prices up. That was partly due to not knowing if Spain would close its borders. But, this upward trend was short-lived. Prices plummetted midway through week 12 already.”

      https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9207596/cucumber-market-went-from-a-flying-start-to-not-selling-at-auction/

      1. ‘North Dakota pasture land values decline in 2020’

        ‘Statewide pasture land values and rents are down in 2020, after peaking in 2019, said Bryon Parman, North Dakota State University Extension agricultural finance specialist.’

        ‘Cash rents are down across all regions of North Dakota from 2019 to 2020. The largest drops are in the northwestern region falling 8.2 percent, the south-central region falling 8.7 percent and the southeastern region falling 7.6 percent.’

        https://www.wahpetondailynews.com/news/north-dakota-pasture-land-values-decline-in-2020/article_ee0d1360-7dd6-11ea-96d5-47b8db447d99.html

        1. ‘China’s top lithium miner eyes stake sales as losses deepen’

          ‘China’s Tianqi Lithium Corp., the country’s top producer of the battery metal, said on Wednesday it would post a net loss in the first quarter of 2020, adding pressure to take aggressive measures, including stake sales, to pay back over $6 billion in debt.’

          ‘The Shenzhen-listed miner warned losses for the first three months of the year will amount to between 450 and 510 million yuan ($64-$72 million) compared with net profit of 111 million yuan ($16 million) in 2019.’

          ‘It attributed the estimate mainly to weak lithium prices, coronavirus-related disruptions that effected sales, and foreign exchange factors.’

          https://www.mining.com/chinas-top-lithium-miner-eyes-stake-sales-as-losses-deepens/

          1. ‘Fleet lessors becoming alarmed as falling used car prices threaten residuals’

            ‘The challenge for the Western fleet leasing industry during the Covid-19 pandemic will be to manage the current volatility in the market whilst respecting the fact that there may be no short-term recovery in residual values (RVs).’

            ‘Fleets cannot stop the sale of used vehicles (particularly in a downturn). Whilst run-on strategies may happen, the economics of vehicle fleets mean that de-fleeting cannot stop 100%. Indeed, as leasing and rental companies’ customer demand shrinks, more units are forced to market.’

            https://www.assetfinanceinternational.com/index.php/fleet-finance/fleet-emea/fleet-emea-articles/19342-fleet-lessors-becoming-alarmed-as-falling-used-car-prices-threaten-residuals

      1. Yay! 🥝 … yum, yum (eye thinks they grow$ ’em in America$ large$t farm.$tate Calif. too!)
        🇺🇸 Buy local!

    2. a massive over-supply of cheap avocado

      I was in King Soopers earlier. They had huge Haas avocados priced at what the small ones were just a few weeks ago.

      Also, almost everyone in the store was masked. more than 99%, I would say.

  8. CNBC Diana …
    was June 2014 bad? or is it going to get much worse

    Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to a reading of 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012, according to the latest National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The survey dates to January 1985.

    The HMI reading was expected to drop to 55. Anything above 50 is considered positive. The last negative reading was in June 2014.

    This month’s survey was conducted from April 1 to April 13, after millions of Americans had been issued orders to stay home to stem the spread of the virus, prompting historic waves of business closures, layoffs and furloughs.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-homebuilder-confidence-takes-biggest-one-month-dive-in-history.html

    1. The housing market was already starting to tank again in 2014, then Mel Watt stepped up his housing heroin distribution.

  9. ‘JOHNSON COUNTY, Iowa (KWWL) – Decreased demand from the restaurant industry as well as less production capacity at food processing plants has tanked the price of pork since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. “The price has basically been cut in half over a very short time,” Chad Hart said, an agriculture economics professor at Iowa State University.’

    ‘Hart says the futures market for pork was around 70 to 80 dollars for 100 pounds of meat to start the year; now, it’s hovering around $35-40.’

    ‘Meat-packers are turning to their suppliers and saying “we don’t need as many pigs,” who are re-iterating that message to local farmers. “So, you’re seeing hog producers across the country all deal with this price cut by looking at how they can shrink production on their own individual farms,” Hart said.’

    ‘Emily Snider, a hog and grain farmer in Cedar and Johnson County, says it’s been harder to sell undersized pigs since the outbreak (ones that may have had trouble getting to their feeders). “Where are our hogs going to go now?” Snider said.’

    https://kwwl.com/2020/04/14/livestock-farmers-closely-watching-outbreaks-at-food-processing-plants/

    1. ‘Coronavirus idles Keys fishing fleet’

      ‘The crippling clutch of the COVID-19 global health crisis has hit the Florida Keys fishing industry particularly hard, leaving both charter and commercial operators dead in the water during normally bonanza months.’

      ‘The sportfishing charter fleet typically relies heavily on the winter-to-spring tourist season for the bulk of their annual earnings, but because of the coronavirus pandemic, the closing of lodges and non-essential businesses have dried up nearly all of their revenue stream.’

      “We are normally cranking and firing on all cylinders right now,” said Capt. Kit Carson Mobley, owner of DirtyBoat Charters in Islamorada, which caters to offshore recreational anglers. “I’ve canceled more than 30 trips from now until May 1, and I probably have another 30 trips scheduled after that which are probably going to cancel. People are starting to cancel the June and July dates. The losses are unspeakable.”

      https://keysnews.com/article/story/coronavirus-idles-keys-fishing-fleet/

      1. ‘Asparagus Prices Reflect Out-of-Whack Food Chain’

        ‘Veggie is cheap in the US because Mexico must send it here amid virus outbreak’

        ‘Dairy farmers dumping milk is just one sign of an out-of-sync food chain. Another is the low price of asparagus in the US, writes Chase Purdy at Quartz. The veggie generally sold for $3 a pound in early January, but the price dropped to $2 early this month. A buck a pound may not mean a huge difference on the micro level, but the drop nonetheless has “big implications” in the grand scheme of world food prices, writes Purdy. In this case, asparagus in the US is cheap because Mexico—a major world supplier of the vegetable—can no longer ship as much to Asia because of coronavirus restrictions. Instead, that excess asparagus is flooding the US market and driving down prices.’

        https://www.newser.com/story/289549/asparagus-prices-reflect-out-of-whack-food-chain.html

        1. I was thinking about this food thing, and I think part of the reason we’re seeing so much excess now, resulting in price collapses, is because of the amount of waste there was in the system prior to the restaurant and cruise ship shutdown.

          If you think about buffets on cruise ships and in Vegas casinos, as well as restaurants which load plates high where you can’t eat it all – a lot of that goes straight into the trash. Not as much of that happening now.

          1. I concur – there must have been a lot of waste. I also think there was a lot of supermarket waste in the flush times too, and now that supermarket usage is up bigly, their wastage is going down. I know my local market got some sort of write off by donating old food to a food bank for the poor. There may be some tax write offs too because sometimes they would leave food out where most of it was starting to rot and they would not lower the price. Idiocy!

      2. Illusion$, Delusion$ … Rece$$ion Depre$$ion … the xaoh.deeth.👾.munche$.&.munche$.$tealthly.progre$$ively.uncea$ingly.invi$ibly towards its ultimate de$tiny!

    2. “Where are our hogs going to go now?”

      Doesn’t China need them? Remember the swine fever that was killing their porkers?

    3. Funny how prices at the stores aren’t dropping.

      News item: local JBS pork processing plant in Greeley is shut down for two weeks after covid breakout. IIRC, two workers from that plant, both elderly, have died. Other plants around the country are also closing.

    1. They got$ their $timulu$ ga$ monie$ for their rented vehicle$, now it’$ “Hangin’.Chad! … Hangin’ Chad!” Horn.honking party time!

    1. I got a txt msg from my bank yesterday saying that my Treasury Direct account redeemed my last 4 week Tbill and deposited proceeds back into my source account. Nice to know that part of govt financing is still operating. Nil heard about stimulus check.

      1. “Nil heard about $timulu$ check.”

        This is old.$school “Cult.leader$” method$ of keepin’ the flock a$ “True.Believer$” … $ad.

        BREAKING|Apr 14, 2020

        $timulu$ Check$ May Be Delayed Because Trump Want$ Hi$ Name Printed On Them,

        By Rachel Sandler / Forbes Staff

        KEY FACTS
        The Treasury Department on Monday finalized a decision to have Trump’s name appear in the memo line of the $1,200 stimulus checks each American will receive as part of the coronaviru$ relief bill passed by Congress last month, the Washington Post reported.

        Engineers have to make a computer programming change and then test the system in order to insert Trump’s name on the checks, which will take time and likely cause a delay in the first batch of checks,

  10. “where she has her primary mortgage, agreed to defer her April payment and add an extra payment onto the end of her loan. But her experience with Bank of America, where she has her smaller, second mortgage, didn’t go as smoothly…It was really shocking,’ says Jackson Gandy. ‘If one month is a challenge, then how can I pay four months at once?”

    I love debt. I love debt. Debt, debt, debt. -Debrena, Ron Burgundy style.

    What’s shocking to me, Debrena, is that someone would only have 1 month’s ability to pay a mortgage.

  11. Part of the problem for private mortgage lenders is that their own banks, which give them short-term loans to fund mortgages, either cut their credit lines or made them significantly more expensive.”

    Short-term loans to fund 30-year mortgages is mind-boggling. When the dust settles after the implosion of the Fed’s Everything Bubble causes a full-scale economic collapse, there needs to be a reckoning for the captured policymakers, regulators, and enforcers who let such financial chicanery flourish.

    1. “Short-term loans to fund 30-year mortgages is mind-boggling.”

      “I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. This is my dream; this is my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor, and surviving.” —Colonel Kurtz

  12. Several firms that issue mortgage bonds without federal guarantees have laid off most of their staffs and stopped doing business as the economy grinds to a halt.

    Gosh, I sure hope all those jobless mortgage brokers put away enough money in their high-interest savings accounts to cover their mortgages while they wait for another job to come along.

  13. Now that the human revelers have all left town or gone into hiding, New Orleans rats are engaged in a Hunger Games version of Mardi Gras.

    Rats swarm New Orleans’ streets as coronavirus precautions leave them empty
    Updated on: March 29, 2020 / 11:42 AM / CBS News

    Precautions put in place to slow the rise of coronavirus cases in New Orleans has inadvertently led to a rat problem for the Louisiana city. With restaurants closed save for take-out service, far less food waste is being discarded in the city’s alleyways, driving the local rodent population out into the open to search for scraps.

    New Orleans’ famous Mardi Gras celebration brought thousands of tourists to the city, and medical experts believe it might be a big factor in the city’s COVID-19 outbreak. Now with Bourbon Street’s famous bars all closed and people social distancing, videos show dozens of rats scurrying through the empty streets.

  14. “After three hours and 45 minutes on hold, and several times where he heard a woman saying ‘hello’ before going back to the call music, he finally hung up.

    A lot of sheeple are going to have plenty of time to ruminate over their stupidity in running with the herd and swallowing all the “advice” they got from the financial media and realtors, and how they’re being treated by the banks now that their circumstances have changed. If they turn off their TeeVee and discover truth-tellers on the Internet, millions could become red-pilled as the 3rd Great Muppet Reaping pauperizes what’s left of the middle class.

  15. “Roughly half of U.S. households have no emergency savings, according to a Federal Reserve survey released last year. Those that do may not have enough.

    I’m guessing the Fed authors didn’t delve too deeply into WHY ‘Muricans don’t have savings, between the Fed’s destruction of their purchasing power and its pitiless War on Savers for the past 11 years.

  16. <em.“Economists point to two main reasons for the savings shortage. First, incomes for all but the highest-income Americans have been stagnant or falling for decades.

    These charlatan “economists” never point out the role of globalism and its offshoring of our wealth-creating manufacturing base to China, Mexico, etc. for the pauperization of the American middle and working classes.

  17. “‘I was on the road to get myself back on track,’ she said. ‘I had it all figured out but then this happened. And it’s like a shock. It sets all your plans back.’”

    Better start looking for vacant investor-owned shacks to occupy, Tureka.

  18. In many cases, sellers are willing to negotiate on price, even if they aren’t the ones making the first move publicly.

    The day is coming when realtors and buyers won’t waste their time with greedheads who don’t price their shacks to sell.

  19. Custom built circa 1930s. Yes, this property needs work, but this is a property every smart, capable and adventurous home seeker should see.”

    Overpay for a money pit? No thanks.

  20. “‘I don’t really think it’s worth it,’ says Dahl, who’s losing about $5,000 in income each month his business is closed. ‘I don’t really want to pay four mortgage payments in one.’”

    My recollection from the last bust is that this is the perfect time to stop paying and start banking the excess (or mattress stuffing it). All these people are focused on the best way to keep “their” heavily mortgaged property. The smartest ones already know the future won’t look like the past and are going into money accumulation/squatter mode instead. But they’ll probably keep a lower profile than all these people getting interviewed.

    1. “My recollection from the last bust is that this is the perfect time to stop paying and start banking the excess (or mattress stuffing it).”

      +1 Crystal.

    1. Does the approval$ of this legi$lation fund$ 📝require$ the $ignature 🖍of thee.🍊.jesus?

  21. Got a text message from someone saying she was interested in making an offer on the Encinitas property but the number won’t accept my realtor’s call. BeenVerified doesn’t find a name when searching the number. Any suggestions on figuring out who this person is? I have a first name along with the number.

    1. Any suggestions

      Answer the text message? What’s your name?

      Tell them to contact your realtor.

        1. Person had no familiarity with the property and was looking for an off-market, no commission, no showings, no repairs transaction. I thought it might have originated from a neighbor who knew the situation.

    2. Text back: iffin’ ya hurry 53% off! Offer Expires in 5 mins, call me.

      (Iffin she calls, say “oh, eye thoughts yer were wanting my childs doll.hou$e! My bad.”)

  22. Re forbearance: “All of the missed payments would come due at once”

    Indeed, it will be interesting to see what happens when all the unpaid rent and mortgage payments come due.

  23. 1)
    A report from Bloomberg. “The nascent market for private U.S. mortgages is teetering on the brink of collapse as the coronavirus crisis imperils years of work to lessen the government’s role in home lending. Several firms that issue mortgage bonds without federal guarantees have laid off most of their staffs and stopped doing business as the economy grinds to a halt. And the once-burgeoning market for securities that shift risk from government-backed agencies to private investors has also stalled, with some traders saying they’ve had trouble even getting prices.”

    – So after nationalizing the GSEs the last time around, there’s now less government involvement in the U.S. housing industry? I think I missed something here.

    Markets operating absent major interventions will self-regulate and minimize moral hazard. Without other people’s money (OPM), specifically taxpayers, any losses would be borne by investors directly. Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time.

    2)
    The Wall Street Journal. “Roughly half of U.S. households have no emergency savings, according to a Federal Reserve survey released last year. Those that do may not have enough. Almost 60% said they couldn’t tap into rainy-day funds, borrow from family and friends or sell something to cover three months of living expenses. Before the coronavirus spread, when work was plentiful, it was easy to look past the savings shortage. But after at least 17 million people lost their jobs in recent weeks, many of those without much financial cushion will struggle to make ends meet.”

    “Economists point to two main reasons for the savings shortage. First, incomes for all but the highest-income Americans have been stagnant or falling for decades. Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%. The second reason has to do with the continuing effects of the debt households accumulated before the 2007-09 recession.”

    – Yes, mid- to lower-tier incomes have been stagnant or declining in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, while higher-tier incomes have been rising. This is due to a) globalization, and b) the “wealth effect”: stock and housing asset prices targeted by central banks to “boost” wealth and confidence after the 2008/9 GFC. Unfortunately, not everyone owns stocks and houses, and so wealth has become concentrated at the top. Add to this stock buybacks enabled by cheap debt boosting already stratospheric C-Suite compensation, and it’s not surprising where we are with high income and wealth inequality. Add to this that the mid- to lower-tier cohorts have used debt (by choice or necessity) to fill the void in incomes left by declining salaries.

    I’ve seen many articles showing low to no emergency fund balances for large swaths of the population. Now that employment and easy credit are getting whacked, the current outcomes shouldn’t be surprising.

    – Credit-driven asset bubbles always burst. Housing isn’t going to be immune from this, since easy credit and artificially low interest rates again sent false signals to the marketplace and resulted again in artifically high prices, gross misallocation of capital, and malinvestment.

    The healthy response at this point in the cycle would be to deleverage/write off/restructure the bad debt and force the financially weak and zombie companies to fail. This would normally be done through bankruptcy (BK), auctions, etc.

    The current central bank policy is now to do the complete opposite of the prudent response, and attempt to reflate the bubble as rapidly and with the largest bazooka as possible. Without ever-increasing debt levels, the entire system collapses. We’ll see how this works out, but it didn’t the last two times in 2000 or 2008/9, with essentially the same policies, just smaller bazookas.

  24. The Wall Street Journal article is sobering, and it’s something I’ve brought up with people since this pandemic started. About 50% of people don’t have $1000 for a rainy day. This was new to me thought: ‘ ‘Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%. ’

    I keep thinking about odd details from the past year or so. And one thing that popped to my mind today were the Shocking stories and videos of flash mob style shoplifters?

    20-30 years ago I didn’t believe people who complained that the rich were getting richer and the poor we’re getting poorer. But here we are.

      1. I mentioned a couple of years ago when I moved to Folsom that I saw the strangest thing at the outlet mall, a weird game of hockey between “shoppers” and staff at the Nike store where the “shoppers” were trying to throw inventory out the door past the waving arms of staff acting as goalies. On the outside, accomplices were gathering up all the goods and leisurely walking off with them. Turns out there was a policy that you couldn’t touch people, you could only try to prevent the goods from leaving without being paid for. Mall security had been called but they didn’t show up for another 10 minutes or so.

        This was during “good times”. In a “nice” suburban town. 2017. And rule of law was already seen as only for suckers. Seems like a bad omen for the next year or two with the good times behind us.

        1. A few months ago I was at one of the local WalMarts. As I entered I passed a sign warning the local Police were at the store to arrest shop lifters. Lo and behold there was one of our local boys in blue, standing by. I haven’t been to a WallyMart for a few months. I wonder what the shoplifting is like now.

    1. This was new to me thought: ‘ ‘Median household income in 2018 was only about 3% higher than in 2000 after adjusting for inflation, according to the Census. For the poorest 20%, incomes had declined 2%. ’

      And then think about this…it’s probably even worse than that. Why? Because who gets to define what the rate of inflation was during that time? And would they have any incentive to make it look lower than it actually was?

    2. ” …were the $hocking $tories and videos of fla$h mob $tyle $hoplifter$?

      20-30 years ago I didn’t believe people who complained that the rich were getting richer and the poor we’re getting poorer.”

      How long does ye think it take$ the Federal.Re$erve to digitally created x$6 Trillion$ U$ dollar$ + (0%) a$ in Zero% + ” UNLIMITED!” in the current era?

      How old i$ ye? Exactly?

      (Got$ to learn the$e youngin’$!)

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