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There Are A Lot Of People Who Would Love To Sell But They Are Too Exposed Financially

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The Corcoran Group Founder and Shark on ABC’s Shark Tank Barbara Corcoran joins Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman to break down her latest outlook on real estate amid the coronavirus. Corcoran: You’re going to have a phenomenal housing year. Prices are going to continue to go up. So even in states where you have excess inventory, it’s going to be gobbled up because people have a tremendous appetite right now for the word and the concept and the love that they call home, H-O-M-E.”

“The commercial market is where my eye is. And fortunately, I don’t invest in commercial buildings. But if I was investing in commercial buildings, I’d be worried if I’m the bank supporting the mortgages there. I’m really worried about the value of commercial properties in every city and every town.”

“Landlords have been offering discounts on the Upper West Side, and one section of the neighborhood is seeing the highest number of selling-price decreases of any part of the city, according to two recent reports. Real estate listing site realtyhop analyzed selling trends throughout the city, and found that the Upper West Side had a particularly large number of price drops this month as compared to other parts of the city. In Lincoln Square, the southern part of the neighborhood, there were 47 price drops, the most in the city. The median size of the drop was 4.9%, or $80,000.”

“There is a record number of arrests in a housing scheme connected to CBS2’s award-winning investigation that uncovered New York City paying bad landlords in New Jersey to take in homeless families, CBS2’s Lisa Rozner reported Thursday. ‘These unscrupulous individuals were able to entice people who probably would not ordinarily been able to buy a home. With their assistance, they lent the money and they got into the home ownership market,’ said Theodore Stephens, the Essex County prosecutor.”

“The prosecutor says suspects defrauded homeowners, as well as banks. Loan applications were allegedly manipulated. 2016 online records show a home in Newark sold for $320,000 – almost double the price is was listed for. Another home in East Orange, worth around $150,000, sold for $215,000. In all, the suspects allegedly obtained more than $1.8 million by deceiving mortgage lenders. The homes fell into foreclosure.”

“A South Florida real estate agent has found himself at the center of yet another lawsuit. This time, a commission advance company is alleging Dedric Copeland conned the firm out of advances totaling $420,000 by bringing fake buyers to the company. Copeland has been sued at least four times before. Peter Zalewski, a condo market consultant and investor in Miami, said that in this case, ‘the company taking the risk is the one getting screwed’ and a lawsuit like this calls into question the company’s policies.”

“A surprising number of San Francisco renters are breaking their leases and leaving the city. Over the last three months, 7.5% of the city’s renters, or one in 13 tenants, walked away from their leases, according to the San Francisco Apartment Association. And the trend might not be limited to San Francisco. A recent report from Zillow found that about 2.7 million U.S. adults moved back in with parents or grandparents in March and April. A vast majority of them are from Gen Z, 18 to 25 years of age.”

“All those broken leases could also mean thousands of empty apartments, which may help bring down the city’s rents. ‘Rents are generally tied to the local economy and with the economy struggling, we expect rents to go down inevitably,’ said Charley Goss, spokesperson for the SF Apartment Association.”

“For the third consecutive month, Toronto rents have decreased. ‘Most of the data suggests the rental market is on a major downward trend, as many tenants have lost work because of COVID-19 and not looking for a place to rent, while tenants are moving back in with parents or relatives to save money,’ the report states. ‘With many colleges and universities choosing to announce that classes will be held exclusively online in the fall, rental housing around these institutions has fallen off significantly.'”

“Most developers in Delhi-NCR, Mumbai and Bengaluru are being forced to offer residential units at a 10 percent to 25 percent discount due to the slowdown. In case of new projects launched online, some builders are also offering deferred payment plans such as 10:90 – book the unit by paying 10 percent upfront and the rest on possession.”

“Property companies are struggling to get back on track after their revenues plummeted and many had to lay off most of their staff. A deputy director of a developer of apartment complexes near Ho Chi Minh City, who asked for anonymity, said his company ‘nearly died’ in the second quarter after the pandemic froze all activities. ‘We had cut our workforce from 2,000 last year to 500 now, meaning 75 percent of sales agents are gone.'”

“Another company, headquartered in District 3, has not launched a single housing project so far this year, something that has not happened in the last five years. A senior executive said the company had to spend contingency funds to retain staff and cut prices by 20 percent to push sales. ‘We had to accept reduced profits to survive.’ Nguyen Loc Hanh, CEO of Asia Gem Real Estate Investment Jsc, said the pandemic has cut demand, leading to plummeting revenues for real estate firms, which therefore could not pay back bank loans.”

“‘The one-bedroom apartment is the toughest market [right now]. There’s just been an oversupply for some time … and now a lot of inner-city investors are looking to sell and when that rent gap widens we will see more apartment stock come on the market – particularly after September,’ said Dean Yesberg from Ray White Brisbane CBD.”

“Listings have jumped in the inner city as the lockdown eases, with 40 per cent more homes for sale over the four weeks to June 14, compared to the previous four weeks, Domain data shows. ‘There are a lot of people who would love to sell but they are too exposed financially … they are probably not in a position to reborrow on the same terms or are struggling to get through the rental checks. People are laying low financially,’ said Robin McIlwain from Belle Property Toowong.”

“While reporting a drop in sales across all its major counties, The Orlando Regional Realtors Association says Osceola County saw the steepest decline at just over 50%, followed by Orange County at 46%. You could compare our current housing market to what we saw in 2007 and 2008 but realtors say that’s not entirely accurate.”

“‘The whole world is experiencing the same thing. this isn’t like what happened before where it’s pockets around the country or pockets around the world of a bubble market or a recession market. This is global,’ real estate agent Katherine Bordelon said.”

This Post Has 151 Comments
  1. ‘You could compare our current housing market to what we saw in 2007 and 2008 but realtors say that’s not entirely accurate. ‘The whole world is experiencing the same thing. this isn’t like what happened before where it’s pockets around the country or pockets around the world of a bubble market or a recession market. This is global’

    Kathy said a mouthful there. I’ve been watching this thing closely and it is sinking in. Like yesterday the people in India talking about missed revenue. So multiply that by many thousands, and you get a big pull-back in the multiplier. It adds up to recession, but how deep?

    What I am seeing is people hoarding money, what they have of it. The REIC will say (all together now) this is a health crisis, not a shack crisis. (The fact you see this repeated so much is a sign of talking points). So why all the long faces and “struggle” around real estate? In the first link Babs carries on with the fairy tale. But I see a serious bust, here and now.

    1. Lenders don’t seem very eager to lend against falling knife collateral. How will the economy survive without a steady influx of HELOC monies?

    2. How will the economy survive when home equity ATM cash dries up?

      Finance
      The Economy Is in Disarray. But Borrowers Aren’t Getting Home-Equity Lines.
      New home-equity lines of credit declined after pandemic hit as lenders tightened standards
      By Updated June 18, 2020 3:55 pm ET

      Millions of Americans are out of work. But for many, tapping their home equity isn’t an option.

      New home-equity lines of credit dropped 19% from March through May compared with the same time last year, according to preliminary data from credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc.

      Many lenders are getting stricter about offering the credit lines, …

  2. ‘All those broken leases could also mean thousands of empty apartments’

    Wa happened to my shortage California?

    ‘2016 online records show a home in Newark sold for $320,000 – almost double the price is was listed for. Another home in East Orange, worth around $150,000, sold for $215,000. In all, the suspects allegedly obtained more than $1.8 million by deceiving mortgage lenders. The homes fell into foreclosure’

    Eat yer crowz jingle.

    1. “… the suspects allegedly obtained more than $1.8 million by deceiving mortgage lenders. The homes fell into foreclosure’ … ”

      This scam is not new. It happened hundreds of times in places like Fresno, Stockton, and Bakersfield last bubble. The supposed victims — the mortgage lenders — are in on the con. They know the loan applications are total BS! These lenders look the other way and collect huge fees. The supposed buyers don’t care about the fees because they’re just strawmen who have no intention of paying (they usually get to live in a nice house rent free for a year or so). Indeed its usually the main conspirators who make the minimum three months of payment that qualify the mortgages to be bundled and sold. Once that happens the entire local crew is good — everybody got their frees and/or commission and/or cash out. The soon to default mortgages become someone else’s problem (ultimately the tax payer).

      1. did you remember the scene in the ‘Big Short’ where they were talking to the stripper that had 5 homes by qualifying for liar loans?

        Has anything changed

        1. The thing to remember is that the mortgage brokers and underwriters are in on the lying. You don’t think strippers figure out exactly what to say and which creative documents to present all by themselves do you?

  3. ‘A South Florida real estate agent has found himself at the center of yet another lawsuit. This time, a commission advance company is alleging Dedric Copeland conned the firm out of advances totaling $420,000 by bringing fake buyers to the company. Copeland has been sued at least four times before’

    The never ending stream of fraud out of South Florida. Check out this article for all the tales of woe.

    1. “The never ending stream of fraud out of South Florida.”

      +1 A sunny place for shady characters.

  4. ‘Most developers in Delhi-NCR, Mumbai and Bengaluru are being forced to offer residential units at a 10 percent to 25 percent discount due to the slowdown’

    ‘We had cut our workforce from 2,000 last year to 500 now, meaning 75 percent of sales agents are gone’

    Similar stories are piling up all over the world. So how do you think these laid off people are spending? They aren’t, any more than necessary. This CCP virus was just the catalyst that exposed all the shenanigans.

    1. From Crain’s New York this morning:

      “Concessions become the norm as rental market swoons”

      There is a slaughter going on in CBMS.

      Also:

      “Covid-19 fuels largest price drop for Brooklyn homes in nine years

  5. “One of the problems we face in the United States is that unfortunately, there is a combination of an anti-science bias that people are — for reasons that sometimes are, you know, inconceivable and not understandable — they just don’t believe science and they don’t believe authority,” Fauci said.’

    “So when they see someone up in the White House, which has an air of authority to it, who’s talking about science, that there are some people who just don’t believe that — and that’s unfortunate because, you know, science is truth,” Fauci said.’

    https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/06/fauci-warns-of-anti-science-bias-being-a-problem-in-us/

    How about another flip-flop Tony? How many times have your “models” been off by 80 or 90%? I’m still going by the bring out yer dead cart guy, who hasn’t been seen on my street for months.

    1. Ironically, those 2 million predicted beer flu deaths got washed away by the rising ocean levels, so sez the “scientists”.

      Political scientists, that is. Like Albert Gore, who kind of reminds me of batmans nemesis, penguin. Consuming a lot of resources, he is.

      1. “those 2 million predicted beer flu deaths”

        Wait for it. Things are just getting started.

        My prediction is 1.3 million in the USA by the time its all over in about three years. If I’m right (and still alive) someone can buy me a beer.

          1. It’s pretty early. With 800 or so additional U.S. COVID-19 deaths a day, the body count is steadily rising, and we’re still only in the first wave.

            We are certainly a long way from back when ‘Mericans had supposed immunity to the Wuhan flu.

          2. ‘Mericans had supposed immunity

            Must have missed that news flash.

            Sorry, the daily body count in the USA is falling, and has been for quite some time. The Total can never fall, even when deaths go to zero, obviously.

            What’s the hustle anyway?

        1. By whose measure? The statistics are so conflated with comorbidities it’s impossible to separate the relevant data. In San Diego, a county of over three million people, I read recently that the health department could only find 6 cases that appeared to be unambiguous CV fatalities. I’d guess more people died from falling down the stairs in the same time period. You have to build an ark constructed from what you can see with your own eyes and hear with your own ears to save yourself from the flood of disinformation, subterfuge, and legerdemain.

          1. So many lies have been written about the Revolution that no one will ever know what actually happened.

          2. Yep, as stated before in my state there have been less than a few dozen deaths, all in the 70+ age range. Many were in the hospital for months prior. The media even announced that one of the deaths did not die from Covid, but they were counting it as a covid death anyway (did a hard double take when I did that – what you talkin bout willis?). My state even counts cases where the person tested positive elsewhere but is a state resident, so there’s likely double counting.

            Ive been reading that this “spike” is in some part related to problems in mexico (and possibly other countries in latin/south America) where the hospitals are overwhelmed and those with green cards are told to go over the border to get care. Apparently hospitals like Scripps in San Diego are at critical levels now due to this, but this is all from a doctor. The lamestream media is content to blame Orange man and old statues probably.

          3. By the end of the year the math will be easy. Actual total deaths – the deaths that would have been otherwise expected. Public records will provide the first number and actuaries can easily provide the second.

      1. It isn’t bias against science — it’s bias against “science” being used not as an open forum for debate, but as the exact opposite, a co-opted political tool to silence dissent.

        1. it’s bias against “science” being used I would not call the process “bias” but simple good sense. “Science” has turned into a “hustle”

  6. I won’t be buying a house and paying property taxes in any city that won’t keep its citizens, taxpayers, property owners safe:

    “More than half of Democratic voters approve of cutting police funding as a means of reducing fatal encounters while 48 percent disapprove, according to a new Hill-HarrisX poll.

    Fifty-two percent of Democratic voters approve of cutting police funding, according to the recent survey, while 78 percent of Republican voters and 70 percent of independent voters disapprove of the measure.

    However, cutting police funding was the least popular reform compared to other proposals, receiving 36 percent support among voters overall.”

    https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/503028-poll-52-percent-of-democratic-voters-support-cutting-police

    This happened last night, and Portland Police didn’t lift a finger to stop it:

    https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/2020/06/george-washington-statue-toppled-during-22nd-consecutive-day-of-portland-protests.html

    “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

    1. It occurs to me they could stage a memorable (peaceful) protest by making a bonfire of all their US Dollars.

    2. Fifty-two percent of Democratic voters approve of cutting police funding

      Why, do they think they could then go out looting every night?

      Thatcher’s “eventually you run out of other people’s money” quote just popped into my head, for some reason…

        1. Or the people who maintained, furnished, and occupied the places you used to be able to burn down run away from you.

      1. Fifty-two percent of Democratic voters

        This is total BS. Besides, shouldn’t it read “Democrat voters”?

        1. Besides, shouldn’t it read “Democrat voters”?

          Exactly. The Republican party is a “democratic” party too. The Democrats aren’t “Democratics” they’re “Democrats”.

          Calling them the “Democratic” party artificially makes them sound benign. It is more properly referred to as the Democrat party. The party of socialists, tyrants, racists and corruption.

    3. Funny thing is that Republicans have no problem rolling back enforcement that actually makes Americans safer. They’ve all for rolling back enforcement of environmental laws, workplace safety laws, agricultural inspection laws, drug safety laws …

  7. ABC’s Shark Tank Barbara Corcoran

    “…So even in states where you have excess inventory, it’s going to be gobbled up because people have a tremendous appetite right now for the word and the concept and the love that they call home, H-O-M-E….”

    Thanks Barbara for a nice TENET movie time travel back to a 1960’s love fest.

    Your sayin’ that the birds will be chirping, the squirrels will be nesting, the sky will always be blue and we will be all feasting on pizza and beer. [courtesy of unlimited free Fed money]

    Now I can enjoy my weekend.

    1. I wish someone in the media would hold Corcoran accountable.

      She is just talking her book – to save her agency and her investments. What kind of bullshit is this? Maybe outside NYC might have demand – NJ suburbs etc that are deemed to be safer. But NYC with the subways and tall office buildings – no way

    2. I’m Irish Catholic and Irish Catholic lives matter!

      Britain starved my ancestors and they owe me Big Time!

      Irish Potato Famine

      Although the Penal Laws were largely repealed by 1829, their impact on Ireland’s society and governance was still being felt at the time of the Potato Famine’s onset. English and Anglo-Irish families owned most of the land, and most Irish Catholics were relegated to work as tenant farmers forced to pay rent to the landowners.

      Great Hunger Begins

      When the crops began to fail in 1845, as a result of P. infestans infection, Irish leaders in Dublin petitioned Queen Victoria and Parliament to act—and, initially, they did, repealing the so-called “Corn Laws” and their tariffs on grain, which made food such as corn and bread prohibitively expensive.

      Still, these changes failed to offset the growing problem of the potato blight. With many tenant farmers unable to produce sufficient food for their own consumption, and the costs of other supplies rising, thousands died from starvation, and hundreds of thousands more from disease caused by malnutrition.

      Complicating matters further, historians have since concluded, was that Ireland continued to export large quantities of food, primarily to Great Britain, during the blight. In cases such as livestock and butter, research suggests that exports may have actually increased during the Potato Famine.

      In 1847 alone, records indicate that commodities such as peas, beans, rabbits, fish and honey continued to be exported from Ireland, even as the Great Hunger ravaged the countryside.

      The potato crops didn’t fully recover until 1852. By then, the damage was done. Although estimates vary, it is believed as many as 1 million Irish men, women and children perished during the Famine, and another 1 million emigrated from the island to escape poverty and starvation, with many landing in various cities throughout North America and Great Britain.

      The exact role of the British government in the Potato Famine and its aftermath—whether it ignored the plight of Ireland’s poor out of malice, or if their collective inaction and inadequate response could be attributed to incompetence—is still being debated.

      However, the significance of the Potato Famine (or, in the Irish language, An Gorta Mor) in Irish history, and its contribution to the Irish diaspora of the 19th and 20th centuries, is beyond doubt.

      Tony Blair, during his time as British Prime Minister, issued a statement in 1997 offering a formal apology to Ireland for the U.K. government’s handling of the crisis at the time.

      https://www.history.com/topics/immigration/irish-potato-famine

      1. You do realize that the Irish rose up and violently drove the English out of 26 of Ireland’s 32 counties.

  8. Just got this email from a realtor in the Cambridge/greater Boston area. Buy now or be priced out forever, it seems:

    “My company and I are constantly adjusting to the current challenges that Covid-19 has created, and as we move forward into a new phase of “getting back to business” we will continue to follow the current state and local guidelines for conducting business during the upcoming ‘re-opening’ phases.

    Even though we are far from seeing an end to the pandemic, home prices are on the rise. Applications for home mortgages shot up 12.7% last week, and according to recent reports from from the National Association of Realtors the pent-up demand for homes combined with historically-low interest rates and a lack of inventory means prices are expected to climb over the next few months.”

    1. Suzeb:

      I was waiting for “Realtors are Liars” to comment, but this one has got to get the pinocchio liars club of the year award, me thinks.

      1. Fear not! There’s more and heck, now I’m convinced, it is a GREAT TIME to BUY:

        “I’ve specialized in selling homes in this area for over 20 years, and I fully appreciate the impact that this Covid-19 situation has had on our market. Buying or selling Real Estate can be difficult, especially now during the current coronavirus situation. The whole process can be very overwhelming, but it can definitely be a lot easier if you’re working with a professional who has a lot of experience and knowledge.”

        1. Netting 1% of a million dollar condo sale is a very motivating reason to say things are doing better.

    2. “according to recent reports from from the National Association of Realtors”

      🤣🤣🤣

    3. Actually those with full time, full benefits jobs are doing quite well. Feeling flush actually. And probably ready to flush some of that away.

  9. Corcoran: You’re going to have a phenomenal housing year. Prices are going to continue to go up. So even in states where you have excess inventory, it’s going to be gobbled up because people have a tremendous appetite right now for the word and the concept and the love that they call home, H-O-M-E.”

    Realtors are L-I-A-R-S.

  10. ‘We had cut our workforce from 2,000 last year to 500 now, meaning 75 percent of sales agents are gone.’”

    Cà phê cho người đóng cửa (Coffee’s for closers)

  11. “‘The whole world is experiencing the same thing. this isn’t like what happened before where it’s pockets around the country or pockets around the world of a bubble market or a recession market. This is global,’ real estate agent Katherine Bordelon said.”

    Of course it’s global. Heckova job, central bankers.

    1. The view from behind the curtain makes bubbles very challenging to spot.

      Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock market right now is in the 4th ‘real McCoy’ bubble of his career
      Shalini Nagarajan
      Jun. 18, 2020, 12:06 PM
      Fairfax Media/Getty
      – The renowned investor Jeremy Grantham told CNBC on Wednesday that the US stock market seemed to be forming a “real McCoy” bubble that might end up hurting investors.
      – Grantham said the strong rebound in US stocks from lows in March was “crazy” and might be the fourth major market bubble in his long career.
      – The investing legend is notable for calling three previous market bubbles: Japan’s in 1989, the tech bubble in 2000, and the US housing crash in 2008.

      The investing legend Jeremy Grantham seems certain that the US stock market’s strong recovery from its historic lows in March will end in pain for investors.

      “My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career,” he told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday.

      “The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”

    2. Has there ever been another point in history when free markets were more overridden by governments supposedly acting in the interest of the “greater good”?

      I’m thinking perhaps the World War II era?

      1. Streetwise
        Thank Stimulus for the Market’s Whiplash
        The winners and losers of the latest boom have been twisted by the extraordinary power of money from central banks and governments
        By June 20, 2020 9:00 am ET

        From a high enough vantage point, this year’s move from boom to bust to boom looks much like a normal market response to an outside shock, only far faster. But examine it more closely and it becomes clear that the winners and losers have been twisted by the extraordinary power of money from central banks and governments.

    1. Boo ok you found one…thats how rare these are, but again she had an drug dealer ex-BF who used her address as a drop so police figured it was a stash house.

      1. Even if that’s true I don’t want them doing no-knock raids on a stash house or any other house and killing anybody who accidentally thinks about defending themselves against unknown invaders. If she really was just asleep it’s even worse.

        1. If she really was just asleep it’s even worse.

          It’s awful. Shoot them all and sort them out later isn’t an appealing police strategy.

          1. It’s awful.

            Yeah. The gray area is the dogs. Everyone gets bad at the cops for shooting the family dogs. And I’m sure they’ve shot a few that they shouldn’t have. But when people have these dogs that attack uncontrolled at cops doing their jobs I don’t see a solution. Maybe the end of no-knock would solve most of that, though.

          2. Who wants to live in Stalin’s America?

            I recall reading that when the Soviet secret police came for you, they would knock on the door in the middle of the night, and that’s how your neighbors knew why you disappeared.

          3. My college Russian teacher shared her firsthand account of life in Stalin’s Russia with our class. It definitely left a lasting impression on me.

          4. they would knock on the door in the middle of the night

            Seems oddly courteous compared to how we like to do things. Maybe they were more interested than us in keeping their police alive and working. Or maybe that’s actually just the easiest way if you know everybody inside is defenseless and has nowhere to run.

          5. Or maybe that’s actually just the easiest way if you know everybody inside is defenseless and has nowhere to run.

            Most likely that. Plus if you’re in an apartment building, you really are trapped. Plus if you go quietly, your family will live to see another day.

            I do remember reading that few things instilled more fear in Russians than a midnight knock on the door.

          6. I do remember reading that few things instilled more fear in Russians than a midnight knock on the door.

            I know my old relatives in Poland still get really nervous when you pull up unannounced in a black rental car with Warsaw plates until they figure out who it is.

    1. Sounds about right.

      William Kristol will get a cabinet seat in the Biden administration, need more drone strikes in undeclared wars that “real journalists” don’t report on. Sigh, #Forward…

    2. Me too. I disagree with her on many things but I think congress needs at least one of her.

    1. If you are in debt, don’t buy gold. When this comedy of an economy falls in on itself you’ll be selling any assets you might have at liquidation-sale prices.

  12. Did you read that excellent Washington Post investigative piece on Joe Biden’s cognitive decline?

    Oh wait, you couldn’t have. Real Journalists and globalist progaganda outlets would never cover such a story.

    1. James Kunstler today on cognitive decline:

      Now that all the old statues are torn down, beheaded, or drowned, will future statues of statesman Joe Biden portray him at his most heroic, with a face-mask dangling from one ear as he scours the vacant chambers of his prefrontal cortex for a fugitive homily?

      1. He should go all in and pick a black tranny. We already had one for first “lady”, lol!

  13. Went to the bank drive through about 3 pm today. Nobody there, just a sign that read…

    In observance of Junteenth, we will close at 2:00 p.m. on Friday, June 19, 2020

    That sign wasn’t there last Friday.

  14. “…about 2.7 million U.S. adults moved back in with parents or grandparents in March and April. A vast majority of them are from Gen Z, 18 to 25 years of age.””

    Hmm, 18-25 year olds moving in with the grandparents, might that cause a “spike” in coronavirus infections?

    1. 18-25 year olds moving in with the grandparents, might that cause a “spike” in coronavirus infections? Poor grandparents’ stress levels may then accelerate their cognitive decline.

  15. I found out last night that they have been using the wrong kinds of mouses in Pharma studies. This makes it look like the drugs are safer than they are. With Mal practice and Pharma deaths adding up to about 250 thousand a year in the USA, it appears that SCIENCE has been compromised .

    The story about the mice or mouses is on Eric Weinstein’s podcast.

    1. Excuse me I mean Bret Weinstein DARK HORSE PODCASTS.

      These are a couple of college professors that go over the takeover of Colleges and how they are even trying to take over Science as something to be eliminated. .

    2. “I found out last night that they have been using the wrong kinds of mouses in Pharma studies.”

      And this will not be corrected because too much money has been invested in these faulty studies, too many research papers have been written, too many reputations have been put on the line.

      If anyone of influence would stand up and challenge the validity of any of these studies he/she will be thoroughly trashed.

      So, it is party on, Garth.

  16. “While reporting a drop in sales across all its major counties, The Orlando Regional Realtors Association says Osceola County saw the steepest decline at just over 50%, followed by Orange County at 46%. You could compare our current housing market to what we saw in 2007 and 2008 but realtors say that’s not entirely accurate.”

    “‘The whole world is experiencing the same thing. this isn’t like what happened before where it’s pockets around the country or pockets around the world of a bubble market or a recession market. This is global,’ real estate agent Katherine Bordelon said.”

    It’s a global housing bubble along with everything bubble. Now go find some cardboard boxes.

    1. “The housing market is hot, and realtors suggest if you plan on looking for a home soon then be prepared to act fast.

      “This is absolutely a seller’s market. We’re begging you basically to put your home on the market,” said realtor Adam Kruse, owner of Hermann London Group.”

      Realtors are liars

  17. The Corrs – Breathless

    They are from Dundalk, County Louth, Ireland.

    https://youtu.be/vzerbXFwGCE

    Breathless (The Corrs song)
    From Wikipedia
    Music video

    The music video for the song was filmed in the Mojave Desert, California, at Trona Airport (TRH) in Inyo County on 24 May 2000, and was directed by Nigel Dick. Two days of on-location filming were required. Both Andrea and Sharon succumbed to heat exhaustion during the two-day shoot and were rushed to hospital, although they were fine the day after.[4] “We shot the video in the Mojave Desert, just outside Los Angeles,” Jim described, “and it was shot by a friend of ours, Nigel Dick. We’ve worked with him on quite a number of videos. We spent about two days out in the desert sun, and we kind of weren’t really prepared for that type of heat.”[4]

  18. Well Finally! I mentioned some time ago that I was expecting to eventually see a nice payout from work I already did, and now it’s finally happening. I will have the details and first payment in the next 2-3 weeks.

    With all the craziness going on this year – pandemic, fed super stimulus, riots, elections looming, etc… I have no idea what’s a good action to take with extra cash (est $10-20k/month)

    Should I keep it as cash? jump into the market? buy rental prop^h^h^h^h^h^h^h^h no scratch that last one, buy one-way tickets to South America?

    Spitball time – if you were me, what would you do and why?

    1. It depends on whether you expect inflation or deflation. Will the Fed keep churning out cash by the trillions? Will there be UBI to keep the newly unemployed fat and content?

      Or will the Fed come to its senses?

      If we go Wiemar, then cash will be trash, otherwise it will be king.

      At this point I think they won’t stop printing. Reparations? Print it! Make state pensions whole? Print it. Social Security and Medicare underfunded? Print it!

        1. Watch out below once everyone is all in. It’s definitely a Terminator market.

          Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
          Equity valuation
          Relentless stocks on track for best quarter in a decade
          Global rally has shaken off a health crisis, an economic downturn and political tensions
          ‘I’ll be back’: the power and pace of the recovery stands in contrast to a murky economic and political backdrop © FT montage; Getty
          Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo and Katie Martin in London yesterday

          The stock market advance since late March could be termed the Terminator rally. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger’s cyborg assassin, nothing seems able to stop it.

          On June 11, global equities dropped almost 5 per cent in the biggest aftershock from the sharp declines of March, as investors were spooked by renewed Covid-19 cases and a gloomy US Federal Reserve. Even so, the FTSE All-World index has since recovered and remains on track to complete its best quarter in more than a decade.

          US equities continue to lead the charge. The S&P 500 is up 21 per cent since April, on course for its best quarter in more than 20 years. The worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression, plummeting corporate earnings and rising geopolitical tensions have done little to slow the remorseless moves upwards.

          “It’s the equity market that won’t die,” said James Athey, an investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

          The power and pace of the recovery stands in contrast to the murky economic and political backdrop. Add in recent signs that some places are seeing coronavirus infections tick up again after ending lockdowns, and many veteran investors are stumped.

          “I have been completely amazed,” Jeremy Grantham, the founder of money manager GMO, told CNBC this week. “The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain but at least I think we know now that we’re in one. And the chutzpah involved in having a bubble at a time of massive economic and financial uncertainty is substantial.”

      1. What do I expect? Chaos

        What do I think is likely?

        inflation? yes

        deflation? Yes

        Will the Fed keep churning out cash by the trillions? Yes

        Will there be UBI to keep the newly unemployed fat and content? Yes

        Or will the Fed come to its senses? No

        Will the markets crash? Likely

        Will a there be a second wave? Don’t you mean third…

        More civil unrest? yes

        Something we haven’t even predicted regarding the elections? absolutely

        The markets seem like a trap right now. Cash seems like best of a bunch of bad options.

      2. “Will the Fed keep churning out cash by the trillions?”

        Your post suggests the idea that they can continue forever with Unlimited Quarantinive Easing, indefinitely ramping up to ever greater degrees of unlimitedness as necessary, with a steadfast Shock and Awe effect that buoys the stock market regardless of underlying fundamental economic collapse.

        Have you considered the possibility that at some point, they might either run out of ammunition or find themselves pushing on a string?

        1. Omitted info- QE and variations of it simply drive demand(and prices) lower which is exactly what we’re seeing.

          Skilled narrative writers never omit pertinent info.

        2. Have you considered the possibility that at some point, they might either run out of ammunition or find themselves pushing on a string?

          At some point there will be hyperinflation, and they will be out of ammo. The only question is how long will they keep pushing the string once that happens. I fear that it will be for quite a while.

          So state employees will get their pensions, which won’t be able to keep up with inflation and will eventually be worthless. Ditto Social Security and if it’s created, UBI too.

          1. At some point there will be hyperinflation, and they will be out of ammo. The only question is how long will they keep pushing the string once that happens. I fear that it will be for quite a while.

            As many have suggested, they likely already have an electronic currency in the pipeline – globally. The world’s central bankers are working in concert. They are not stupid, they understand they are devaluing the currency. But they don’t care. As long as all the assets and wealth remains in the hands of the chosen ones, it’s mission accomplished.

          2. At some point there will be hyperinflation, and they will be out of ammo. The only question is how long will they keep pushing the string once that happens. I fear that it will be for quite a while.

            If/when that does happen, all hell breaks loose inside America. So far, almost all the QE money seems to be going into propping up equity and other financial asset prices.

            I am just barely old enough to remember the inflation of the 1970s, and what we are doing now make the monetary policy of that era look like small potatoes. The difference is that it then it immediately filtered down in to higher prices for nearly everything most of the country consumed, while wages stagnated.

            This time around we have 1) avoided consumer price inflation that resembles the inflation of the money supply, 2) we have even more government subsidies and handouts for the lower half of the country economically. The unfortunate side effect of massive inflation in the prices of financial instruments with its resultant increase in income inequality and the destruction of traditional savings is ironically a blessing – it’s the least worst outcome.

            The worse outcome comes with the ability to maintain their standard of living, or even pay the rent, for a majority of the country suddenly drops through the floor. The potential for civil unrest would go up exponentially compared to what we just seen.

          3. Union contracts with cost of living adjustments
            plus many more manufacturing jobs than today meant a good part of the workforce was buffered against inflation. And homeowners saw their debt inflated away by rising prices. It was mainly retirees, whose fixed income pensions and bonds went down in value with rising interest rates, who bore the brunt.

      1. We’re pretty close to debt free. Have car loans, but those are collateralized by cars which are not physically depreciating very quickly, due to mostly sitting in the garage. Have enough saved mone to cover decades of rent. The only big issue is how to hedge against central banker currency manipulation shenanigans. I’m working on a long-term diversification strategy to deal with that.

      2. Ok, I’m going to give a serious reply to explain where we are at.

        We have but a single debt, Casa Spiffy, and that’s been refi’d down just over 3%.

        Cars? 2008 and 2006 models very well maintained with 5-10 years life left in them and no plans to replace anytime soon.

        Student Loans? Mrs Spiffy paid off her Masters degree finally and they’re gone.

        Credit Cards? Get Serious. Haven’t paid a penny in consumer debt interest in almost 5 years now. (remember that Spiffy had a negative net worth until 2016 due to divorce court)

        Emergency Fund? That got raided to purchase Casa Spiffy, but checking with Mrs Spiffy (we have separate accounts) we should be back over $100K in cash between us within a month or so when a couple outstanding invoices are paid.

        Kids College Fund? Ironically, the kids college funds, setup before the divorce back in the mid 2000s were left alone post divorce, and did rather well. All the kiddos pursuing higher education should be covered for the next 3-4 years.

        Durable Consumer goods? We’ve got pretty much everything we need/really want.

        the tl;dr is that we’ve finally gotten the rest of our financial house in order, and now the focus turns to savings and investing. Only it feels like we were that couple that’s late to the party and shows up just after the police and SWAT teams are busting everything up.

        I’m genuinely feeling paralysis given how crazy bonkers things are right now, and the forecast for the next 6 months (elections in Nov, more QE to the moon, Covid and the Economy world tour 2020, etc). The obvious answer seem like ‘just hold on to cash for now’, which is what I’ll think we have to do, but even that comes with risks.

        1. a single debt, Casa

          In other words, deeply in debt.

          Piling up cash (probably not actually cash) while in significant long term debt might be a strategy if you are planning a strategic default.

          1. I’d argue that ‘deeply’ is relative when you consider alternatives for shelter services. 🙂 At this point we’re a bit ahead of renting in terms of raw cash flow, and it should only improve over the long run.

            I know that just by being here and recently having purchased a house, I’ve opened myself up for quite a few pokes from the peanut gallery, which I don’t mind at all. To counter, I don’t think I need to rehash all the details as to why I’m viewing the house as a very long term play yet another time. It’s the home we hope to stay in for good and that’s good enough.

            That disclaimer out of the way, paying off the house sooner than later IS one of our bigger goals, The question is.. can the new money coming in be invested elsewhere, other than a mortgage curtailment, and return more than 3.125%? If so, and it can be safely enough it makes sense to pursue. The problem is that nothing seems safe – the volatility and threat of major collapse/unwinding/defaults/etc in the markets & economy are as great as I can ever remember them. Uncertain enough that I would argue it between curtailments and holding extra cash, just holding on to cash seems more prudent. And I guess that frustrates me.

            Maybe there is no good answer, but it still seems worth it to get other opinions and ideas, and many of the posters here 1) hold similar concerns, 2) have a diverse set of experiences in such matters.

          2. paying off the house sooner than later IS one of our bigger goals, The question is.. can the new money coming in be invested elsewhere, other than a mortgage curtailment, and return more than 3.125%?

            I didn’t throw peanuts at you for “buying” a house (this time).

            In the ’70s my FIL had a 3% mortgage from 1960 when he bought. Mortgage rates were then in the upper teens. No way he would pay down that mortgage.

            I’ve made and spent some millions, and yes I still consider six digit debts significant. Expected income can evaporate, things happen. Investments can be unexpectedly moth eaten. Debt is rather persistent. I’ve had the apple cart upset while I was stretched on debt payments and it made an impression on me. I never missed a payment OR feeding the kids, but extreme measures were required.

            3.125%. You go chase yield all you want. I’ve been a responsible adult probably twice as long as you and just offer the friendly advice that retiring debt is always a sure investment in your own security.

            Actually, now I’m an irresponsible adult.

          3. BlueSkye, I think I’ve gotten our conversation off on the wrong path. We really do see almost completely eye-to-eye on these issues.

            and yes I still consider six digit debts significant. Expected income can evaporate, things happen. Investments can be unexpectedly moth eaten. Debt is rather persistent. I’ve had the apple cart upset while I was stretched on debt payments and it made an impression on me. I never missed a payment OR feeding the kids, but extreme measures were required.

            Paying off the house and putting us into a position where external events can’t drive a truck over our ‘apple cart’ is the #1 thing I’d like to accomplish. I’ve been through the proverbial wringer over the last 20 years – from sitting pretty with 8+ years of operating funds in a portfolio to raped in divorce court to bringing a check to closing to sell a house to being unemployed and just a week away from being evicted (just 7 years ago). I’ve worked my tail off, making a lot by making even more for other people, and fighting for a piece of the action in a world that deems people like me very, very disposable. Like you, I’ve never missed providing for my kids, or even been late on a payment.

            I’m looking hard at number of personal scenarios and factors, and doing most passive reading at various places (and active discussion here) to try and see what I can’t see and learn what I don’t know.

            This royalty stream won’t be quite enough on its own to eliminate the mortgage before it caps. (it’s not the first one I’ve had, btw, just the largest by far), and I’m racing the clock, anticipating that employment may become more difficult as I approach age 60. And I would much, much prefer to not have to stay in this rat race through my 60s and 70s, so I look for ways to get to that independence sooner.

            It’s really hard to look at all the QE that’s inflated other market assets over the last 12 years when participating wasn’t an option, and now wonder if there isn’t a way to take advantage of it.

            Talk to most people outside of here, and all I get is a variation on the standard “put it in the market, it’ll return 7%+, etc”, but I’m worried about black swans and personal tragedy when most people don’t want to even think about it. You, me and other regulars wouldn’t be here if we didn’t see that possibility.

            I don’t talk about it much here, (partly because it would take so much writing), but we have solid backup plans if our fortunes suffer in the future in unexpected ways. Our own mortality and health, the world going to heck, problems with family etc, and balance that with how we’d prefer to spend the days we have left.

            I’ve been a responsible adult probably twice as long as you

            I suspect that depends on the threshold for the word ‘responsible’ :)- I’ve got the AARP pestering me and 35 years of earnings on my social security statement.

          4. 35 years of earnings

            Apparently I exaggerated. I only have 53. Oops.

            A very good friend and former customer offered me a nice job last month. I thought about it. Told him I just didn’t have the time anymore!

            If you have a good woman with you, when you’re 60 they will think you are 50.

          5. Apparently I exaggerated. I only have 53. Oops.

            I had no doubt you’re my senior… just didn’t think you were in your in your mid 90s ;P

            A very good friend and former customer offered me a nice job last month. I thought about it. Told him I just didn’t have the time anymore!

            I most likely have fewer tomorrows than yesterdays, and my focus has shifted toward making the best of them. It’s a complicated game of navigating the waters ahead.

            If you have a good woman with you, when you’re 60 they will think you are 50.

            I totally failed that the first time, and am still paying dearly for it.

            The second time around, I got it right. Fortunately, when I am 60, Mrs Spiffy will be 48, so hopefully she will mistake for me 50. For some reason she still has the hots for me – I don’t know what she sees in me… 😀

        2. Spiffy I’ve mentioned this before, but check out the Permanent Portfolio.

          IMO it’s perfect for situations like this where you can easily see any of a number of scenarios playing out (inflation, deflation, currency crisis, etc)

          1. check out the Permanent Portfolio.

            Looking at them now. Looks like the pitch is ‘let us handle the diversification’

          2. @drumminj – yeah, spread the risk around but not try to overthink it.

            One thing that seems possible right now that was previously considered ‘unthinkable’ is a dollar crash.

            @Redpilled Redhead – appreciated. Already subscribed to r/boggleheads

            You know it’s funny in a way – a year ago when I thought about reaching this point I was envisioning a much simpler economy to deal with. Not necessarily the best one, just not as many huge variables.

            The more I think about it, the more I focus on the next 6 months as being deciding. Who winds up in office next year could send the markets in very different directions, and a second wave of corona (and the fed/govt response to it) could have similar wild-card impact.

          3. portfoliocharts.com is a great website for researching, looking at historical behavior, and comparative outcomes in different environments.

            If you’re interested in looking into the PP, check out the GyroscopicInvesting forums. Good quality conversation and analysis over there.

  19. Newtown CT Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Fairfield County Housing Bust Accelerates

    https://www.movoto.com/newtown-ct/market-trends/

    As one Fairfield broker put it, “We’ve been directed to flat out lie about and conceal falling prices and collapsing demand. Whatever you hear about the market, it’s a lie.”

  20. ‘Wirecard’s chief executive quit on Friday as the German payments firm’s search for $2.1 billion of missing cash hit a dead end in the Philippines and it scrambled to secure a financial lifeline from its banks.’

    ‘Markus Braun, who built Wirecard into one of the hottest financial technology investments in Europe before questions over accounting saw it crash in value, leaves the firm facing a looming cash crunch and mired in allegations of fraud.’

    ‘Braun, who has aggressively defended Wirecard against allegations of accounting fraud, had earlier said that the firm could itself have been the victim, without giving details. “Attempts by Wirecard to appear as the victim in the missing 1.9 billion euros have been undone within hours of Wirecard management’s video yesterday evening,” said Neil Campling at Mirabaud, the only analyst to have a price target of zero.’

    ‘EY had regularly approved Wirecard’s accounts in recent years, and its refusal to sign off for 2019 confirms failings found in an external probe by KPMG in April.’

    ‘While Wirecard did not give any details of where the missing money is alleged to have gone, statements by the two Philippine banks denying any involvement spooked investors in the firm. “The document claiming the existence of a Wirecard account with BDO is a falsified document and carries forged signatures of bank officers,” BDO said, adding that it had reported the matter to the Philippines’ central bank.’

    https://nypost.com/2020/06/19/wirecard-ceo-markus-braun-quits-amid-fraud-allegations-missing-2b/

    Missing? It didn’t exist. Heck of a job auditors.

  21. “‘The whole world is experiencing the same thing. this isn’t like what happened before where it’s pockets around the country or pockets around the world of a bubble market or a recession market. This is global,’ real estate agent Katherine Bordelon said.”

    This shows how we are making progress.

    1987: Regional housing bubble, in the Northeast and California. National commercial real estate bubble.

    2007: National housing bubble, throughout the U.S.

    2017: Global housing and commercial real estate bubble.

    1. I recall that the housing bubble last time was also global. I think the main difference this time is intensity. Prices are much higher now than in 2007.

      1. Prices are much higher now than in 2007.

        Yes, they are. In fact, they’re more than 50% higher than 2006 prices in some areas.

  22. ‘Sheriff Don Barnes previously said he wouldn’t enforce the mask order as Orange County had its own order briefly, issued abruptly just before Memorial Day weekend by former Health Officer Dr. Nichole Quick late last month as restaurants and shopping malls began reopening. ‘

    “We are not the mask police nor do I intend to be the mask police,” Barnes told Supervisors at the May 26 meeting.’

    “So I know there is a ‘shall’ order. Our deputies always have … fallen back on education first to take appropriate measures. But we are not and have not dealt through these issues through enforcement. And I will direct my staff not to direct any enforcement towards the shall issue mask requirement,” Barnes said.’

    ‘Quick faced a wave of pushback from County Supervisors and residents following her order. She abruptly resigned June 8, following threats from residents and at least one protest in front of her house.’

    https://voiceofoc.org/2020/06/coronavirus-mask-enforcement-in-oc-remains-unclear-as-two-largest-cities-are-being-hit-hard/

    Go pound sand Nikkie, you natzi. Farce!

    1. ‘Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, who is a member of the emergency policy group, says whether or not the county passes a face mask mandate, she will at least do something sooner within the city of Tampa. The city is drafting a mask ordinance for people who live there.’

      ‘Those without a mask will be supplied with one, according to Castor. “If we wear masks, we can put an end to the spread of it. That is the bottom line,” Castor said.’

      https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/mask-ordinance-tampa-coronavirus/67-ae0b41f1-37e3-4597-b306-718d1933e194

      End the spread? Uh, show me the science Jane! Farce!

  23. Note that this article was published in November 2019, before all the Chinese corona layoffs. Just think how much worse off millennials are now, and the absolute non-existent “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:

    “Despite making up nearly a quarter of the population, millennials — defined as those born between 1981 and 1996 — own a scant 3% of the country’s wealth, according to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances. In comparison, when baby boomers were the age millennials are today (around 1989), they controlled 21% of all national wealth. Generation-X’ers at the same age (in 2004) held 6%.

    And it’s not simply that millennials aren’t amassing much wealth — they’re also sinking deeper into debt, carrying a disproportionately high 16% of the nation’s liabilities, the Fed data show.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/millennials-have-just-3-of-us-wealth-boomers-at-their-age-had-21/

  24. https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/06/police-and-crowd-control-tactics-left-the-scene-but-residents-near-capitol-hill-protest-zone-contend-with-ongoing-occupancy/

    100% peaceful!

    ‘Residents living in apartment buildings in and around the Capitol Hill protest zone are voicing ongoing concerns about demonstrators staging in the area, and increasingly drawing a distinction between current occupancy and the protesting against police brutality and inequality that has take place in Seattle since the end of May.’

    ‘One Packard resident, who has chosen to remain anonymous out of safety concerns, is leading efforts among 18 residents in the building to formulate a list of joint safety and security concerns to be sent to Mayor Durkan, Seattle City Council and other city department officials. According to the resident, residents in five of the other apartments in the building moved out in the past 48 hours because of these concerns.’

    Remain anonymous? So peaceful!

    “90% of residents and business in our portfolio are not for occupation. 99% is fully supportive of protests and police reform,” a person involved with property in the area, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, told CHS. “But Residents and tenants don’t feel safe at all from about 10:00PM one at night. It’s a warzone feel in the wee hours – it’s pretty crazy.”

    ‘@MayorJenny @cmkshama @SeattlePD this guy just drove into Cal-Anderson park and started shooting arrows at his car. As a neighbor of the park I can confirm that you’ve completely failed at your job. I get that you’re trying to setup #BLM to fail but seriously. #CHOP #Seattle pic.twitter.com/w7jfrwRejm’

    1. This would all be hilarious if it wasn’t so pathetic.

      Do the inhabitants / occupiers of CHUD think that any taxpaying adults in the country take them seriously?

  25. Look, the time has come in this Country for a third party because to many people aren’t represented by the Reb or Dems.

    I think a new party would be a Workers Party. This is the segment of the population that has been the most abused by both Political parties in the catering to the Globalist looters and the free shit Looters.
    The LOOTERS have something in common that they they are the parasites of the tax coffers in DC.

    Trump as a outsider got elected based on the private sector workers being dewealthed for years now. The Resistance to TRUMP has been so profound that it’s obvious that the working class private sector is meaningless to the Powers that be today.

    Any attempt to empower this sector of working people has been attacked with racism claims, open borders are good BS , and Commie talk .
    The free shit welfare/Commie
    group and the Globalist Looters are the parasites
    that took over DC.

    The only thing that can really save the USA is for it to become a productive private sector working class, which would mean bringing back all the jobs lost to places like China. A return to capitalism is needed as opposed to price setting monopolies and free shit Commies.

    As it stands now Ponzi Schemes of fake pricing is the norm, along with Commie takeover of higher education.

    All this discontent could be reversed and we could go back to what made America strong to begin with.

    It’s getting pretty bad when the protesters want to defund law and order and have those funds directed to more free Gov. Cheese.
    This revolution is stupid because it’s not addressing the Globalist and Commie Looters of the productive working class

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