thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

This Really Feels Like A Historic Moment

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Credit tightening is becoming more evident according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting explained. ‘Mortgage credit supply dropped again in June, as investors further reduced their willingness to purchase jumbo loans and those with lower credit scores. The overall credit availability index decreased 3.3 percent to its lowest level since April 2014, with all of the sub-indexes falling to lows not seen since 2014-2015. Credit supply has fallen over 30 percent since February – before the pandemic – with an 18 percent decrease in government loan availability, and a 57 percent drop in jumbo loan availability.'”

“Wells Fargo is now requiring new customers to bring at least $1 million in balances if they want to refinance a jumbo mortgage, up from a previous level of $250,000, according to people with knowledge of the policy. The bank also tightened lending standards in its mortgage business in the July 1 overhaul, which impacts everyone applying for a home loan, not just jumbo refinancings, according to one of the people. For primary and secondary home mortgages, the bank lowered by 5% the size of loans it would approve relative to a property’s value.”

“It also boosted the amount of cash that buyers need to have on hand after they’ve purchased a home, called a ‘post-closing liquidity requirement,’ from 12 months of expenses to 18 months, said the person. And in other areas of the business, the bank is still taking precautions. A moratorium on home equity lines of credit, which are a popular way for homeowners to extract equity from their home, is still in place, said the people. The bank stopped taking HELOC applications in late April, CNBC reported at the time.”

“And the bank has not resumed its third-party mortgage business, where it purchases jumbo loans underwritten by other banks and credit unions, the people said. Wells Fargo shut down that part of its correspondent lending business in April.”

“ATTOM Data Solutions‘ second-quarter 2020 Special Report says the stretch of states running from Connecticut to Washington, D.C., as well as Illinois had 43 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to the economic impact of COVID-19. These counties include 11 suburban areas around New York City, seven in Chicago, five in the Washington, D.C. area and four around Baltimore. Only four of the vulnerable counties exist in the West, all of which are within California.”

“ATTOM determines counties more or less at risk by exploring the percentage of homes currently facing possible foreclosure, the number of homes with mortgage balances that exceed the property value and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major homeownership expenses. ‘Home-sales data from around the country is starting to show that eight years of price gains may be coming to an end amid the economic damage flowing from the virus pandemic. It’s still too early to make any definitive calls, but the latest numbers show storm clouds gathering over the market,’ said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions.”

“ATTOM’s report revealed the most vulnerable clusters are around New York City, Chicago, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. In these most at-risk areas, there are higher levels of unaffordable housing, mortgages underwater and foreclosure activity has been found.”

“Jeff Ostrowski, analyst, Bankrate.com, said he created an index—the House Hardship Index—which combines mortgage delinquency rates and unemployment rates on a state-by-state basis. He found Nevada and Hawaii were the two most impacted markets, with Nevada having a delinquency rate of 9.9% and an unemployment rate of 25%. Hawaii had a mortgage delinquency rate of 9.3% with 22.3% unemployment.”

“‘That’s more about the structure of their economy. Those are both very tourism heavy states and there was really no tourism in April and May,’ he said, adding both Michigan and New Jersey were hit hard by the virus.”

“A new Honolulu Board of Realtors survey paints an alarming picture of the scope of financial pain Oahu renters are feeling. It found that 4 in 10 Realtors have tenants who couldn’t pay their rent in June. Nearly half of Realtors, meanwhile, had tenants who asked for a discount or rent reduction. It also found 14% of Realtors who responded said they had rental property owners who asked lenders for forbearance or deferrals. 16% said their tenants had difficulty finding rental assistance programs, and 45% said they didn’t expect their tenants ability to pay to improve in July.”

“A housing crunch was already well-established in the Puget Sound area well before COVID-19, but it is clear that people are extremely desperate. Mom-and-pop landlords are also struggling. KING 5 viewer Jo said she invested in three rental properties as a source of retirement income. She said it’s a modest income, but it’s worked these past years. Her tenants became unemployed and were unable to pay rent due to the pandemic. This put Jo into such tough times, that they, too, decided to sell their properties.”

“From southeast Houston to West Harris County, and from Pasadena to Humble, Harris County Justice of the Peace courts have dockets filled with eviction cases. On the other side of the issue are landlords who say eviction is not their goal, but argue they have bills to pay too. ‘As a landlord, I have to pay mortgage, I have to pay taxes, I have to pay everything,’ said Doina Berea. Another landlord outside of court on Griggs Road who said he tries to be flexible with his tenants but points out he has to support his family as well. ‘If I don’t pay after two or three months, they go to foreclosure,’ said Mehdi Naghabi.”

“The coronavirus pandemic has squeezed New York City renters so badly that a quarter of them have gone four months without paying rent, a new report says. The lack of income from rent has landlords struggling to pay their own bills. A survey found that 39 percent of Big Apple building owners could only make partial property tax payments this month, while another 6 percent couldn’t afford to pay at all, as The Post reported last week.”

“With a growing number of residents leaving the city, the New York City rental market took a beating in June, a new report has found. The number of apartments listed for rent in Manhattan also made a record jump, with inventory up nearly 85% from last year. Available listings in Brooklyn and Queens grew, too, with inventory up 57% and 41%, respectively, from last year.”

“Meanwhile, the median rental price in Manhattan, $3,378 a month, dropped by 4.7% from last month, reversing all the gains seen in 2019 and 2020. June also saw the lowest number of new lease signings for that month in a decade, with landlords and brokers offering incentives to entice renters. The report found that 45% of new rental transactions in June included some sort of owner-paid incentives, like one or two months of free rent.”

“‘Being a landlord is tough at the moment,’ said Jason Kennedy, a property owner with four buildings in Manhattan. Many tenants have left their apartments for a second home or an alternative living situation outside the city, he said. Other renters who have lost their job or have taken a pay cut are having difficulty affording their rent. And some renters who can pay are asking for breaks on the rent, he said.”

“The Long Beach City Council will hear a report from our city attorney that requests policy direction to either extend the eviction moratorium or let it expire on July 31. Sadly, non-paying renters are continuing to grow, making it difficult for housing providers to pay mortgages, property taxes and maintenance.”

“Data shared by Zumper last week showed that one-bedroom rents are down 11.8% across the city, beating the previous month’s record of largest decline ever in San Francisco. The largest rent decreases were found in neighborhoods within walking distance to San Francisco start-up hubs — SoMa saw a decrease year-over-year of 19%, and the Lower Pac Heights neighborhood saw a whopping 21% dip. Downtown and Financial District rents dropped by 15% and 14% respectively.”

“‘This really feels like a historic moment. With rents down 11.8% year on year, this is the first time this generation of renters in San Francisco has seen a shift like this,’ said Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades. ‘We believe that rents will continue to drop for a while and then plateau. We do not believe we will see any form of immediate recovery to previous highs for a long time. This is without question a reset, driven in part by the recession, in part by an influx of supply, and in part by the future of remote work.'”

“After surviving cancer of the head and neck, Kelly Estavillo lost the ability to operate his business. Now he may lose his home to SPS, a mortgage servicing company, according to a Santa Clarita realtor. Estavillo is among several individuals facing foreclosure by a mortgage servicing company called Select Portfolio Servicing (SPS), and is being represented by Richard Szerman of Alta Realty Group, who offers free foreclosure defense services to the public.”

“Szerman said he believes this lack of communication is intentional on SPS’s part to force properties such as Estavillo’s into foreclosure when a short sale would otherwise be possible. One of the reasons Szerman believes the actions by SPS are intentional has to do with the reasoning SPS gave for their denial of Estavillo’s short sale — ‘the counter offer was insufficient.'”

“Szerman said that Estavillo is one of ‘half a dozen foreclosures scheduled (with SPS) in the next two weeks for clients who had files in process prior to the pandemic.’ ‘If you think homelessness is bad in the state of California now,’ Szerman said, ‘try what it looks like in six months if we do not stop banks from foreclosing.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 139 Comments

    1. Nobody wants to catch themself a falling knife.

      A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.

      — Mark Twain

  2. ‘This is without question a reset, driven in part by the recession, in part by an influx of supply, and in part by the future of remote work’

    Shortage, shortage, glut. History shows entire cities can go into decline.

    1. “History shows entire cities can go into decline”

      Cleveland went from 1,000,000 population in 1950 to less than 400,000 today. When I left there in 2009 the building I was renting in was less than 40% occupied.

  3. BTW, there’s so much crater I decided to post what’s above, but I have plenty of international, CRE and US crater to follow this weekend.

  4. ‘Szerman said that Estavillo is one of ‘half a dozen foreclosures scheduled (with SPS) in the next two weeks for clients who had files in process prior to the pandemic’

    So the lawyer says a short sale would prevent this guy from qualifying for a rental. Maybe, there’s no shortage of rentals in California these days. But how did these people end up owing more than the value if loans are tight?

    ‘It also boosted the amount of cash that buyers need to have on hand after they’ve purchased a home, called a ‘post-closing liquidity requirement,’ from 12 months of expenses to 18 months’

    And how many people have that? Tighter lending, more defaults, down the stairs the bowling ball goes. This is a credit event.

    2. ‘It also boosted the amount of cash that buyers need to have on hand after they’ve purchased a home, called a ‘post-closing liquidity requirement,’ from 12 months of expenses to 18 months’

      I would guess that much less than 50% of people have that. Probably less than 20%.

    3. Even *I* only have six months of expenses sitting in cash. If I need more than that, I’ll have time to access the Roth IRA, or sell the house and start over somewhere else if need be.

      12-18 months is a real red flag. They either clearly do not want to make any loans, or they are looking to steal that cash. I would have jingle mailed, declared BK, and gone Oil CIty before taking up with an outfit like this.

      1. ‘They either clearly do not want to make any loans’

        A few months ago I posted a loan guy saying they just didn’t call people back to avoid making loans.

      2. They either clearly do not want to make any loans

        I spoke with a trust attorney who had a bank representative admit as much after his refi closed.

    1. I’ve never bought any of their stuff, but I might just go out later and buy a can or two of refried beans.

      1. I buy the low /no salt ones of pretty much everything these days, so i can add Himalayan pink salt or cayenne pepper or Vietnamese cinnamon among other spices

      2. I highly recommend their recaito sauce, if you can find it. Warning, it has cilantro in it which some people dont like (poor bashtards, lol!). But the key IMO is the culantro – you dont find that used too often. So good. F the haters!

        1. recaito sauce

          Thanks for the recommendation. Something new! How do you personally use it?

          culantro

          Another something new! I also need to figure out how to use the tagine I inherited.

  6. “Tighter lending, more defaults, down the stairs the bowling ball goes. This is a credit event.”

    “It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger.”
    Mortgage News Daily
    by: Jann Swanson
    Sure, Rates Are Low, But It’s Getting Harder to Get a Loan
    Jul 9 2020, 3:03PM

    Credit tightening is becoming more evident according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Its Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell to a reading of 125.0 in June, a loss of 3.3 percent. A decline in the index indicates stricter lending standards.

    Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting explained. “Mortgage credit supply dropped again in June, as investors further reduced their willingness to purchase jumbo loans and those with lower credit scores. Lenders are navigating a gradual economic and housing market recovery that is still facing headwinds from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The overall credit availability index decreased 3.3 percent to its lowest level since April 2014, with all of the sub-indexes falling to lows not seen since 2014-2015.”

    Added Kan, “Credit supply has fallen over 30 percent since February – before the pandemic – with an 18 percent decrease in government loan availability, and a 57 percent drop in jumbo loan availability.”

    – Yes, credit is tightening due to a turn in the credit cycle, which was accelerated/brought forward by the pandemic. Sales are pretty strong currently due to the lowest rates in history (3.125%-3.500% for 30 yr. fixed rate mortgage) and a major exodus from the metros. However, house price is inversely proportional to mortgage interest rates. Prices are up, which is again limiting affordability esp. for low end and first time buyers.

    – Let’s see how things look after deferrals and forbearance wind down. Initial/continuing claims are high. Permanent job losses are high and rising. Credit is tightening, as it does at the end of every cycle. The Fed can extend, but not prevent the business/credit cycle.

    – There will likely be more can-kicking stimulus late July/early August to attempt to push the pain out past the Nov. 3rd elections, but I don’t see any “V”-shaped recovery in 2020, or at any time afterwards. “Embrace the suck.” The economy hasn’t experienced much pain yet, but it’s coming. I expect 2021 to be the year when reality bites. For now it’s still the bizzaro world of fantasy finance and economics.

    ————————–|

    https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1281221920864772097
    Jim Bianco
    @biancoresearch
    Initial/Continuing claims are the basic program. The Gov’t has many more programs.

    All told, 32.9m received some sort of unemployment benefit last week.

    This is 23.77% of the workforce. But the official unemployment rate (U-3) is 11.10%.

    This does not compute.

    ————————–|

    1. Things haven’t computed for a long time. It’s the new math. 2+2 will equal whatever number serves the state.

    2. to push the pain out past the Nov. 3rd elections

      I just need 45-60 days. The Encinitas property went on the market yesterday late afternoon. Four people accessed the lockbox without submitting the COVID PEAD form.

    3. and a 57 percent drop in jumbo loan availability

      How long are preapproval letters good for? Might someone find him/herself without a mortgage after having an offer accepted?

  7. I am waiting to buy in Bay Area forever. Can not compete with FAANG stock owners. My study says that following factors holding the housing 1.Low interest rates
    2.Low inventory
    3. CARES act (forbearance of a year).
    4. Stock market high.
    So it will take at least 1 year (probably 2 years) to see a correction of 20 or 30% in Bay Area.

      1. Thanks, but it shows only till Jan 2020, do you see any different data? dropdown menu has “Median sale price” grayed out for me Peak . Do I need to login or need a special account to see it? I see that they gray out a lot of recent months of data for many zip codes. Does it mean not significant volume to report/show up in charts or does it mean that they want to hide the reality .

        I am interested in Milpitas, shows little downtrend. I can afford only that place (it has a jail, it stinks with a garbage recycle plant smell and not top school district – so hoping the prices should come down faster for this and more affordable than other better area of bay area, also proximity to work.

        1. I see that they gray out a lot of recent months of data for many zip codes. Does it mean not significant volume to report/show up in charts or does it mean that they want to hide the reality .

          Yes. Because the entire industry is built on fraud.

          1. i have been thinking that myself. been wanting to read some more internet info about that possible reality. can you elaborate alittle about the details of the whole industry is built on fraud. thanks.

          2. Fraudulent mortgages, fraudulent appraisals, fraudulent sales quantity and price data from the REIC, fraudulent cap rates hiding incentives, fraudulent foreclosure information, fraudulent inventory numbers (shadow inventory)….need I go on?

          3. need I go on?

            It’s not like Ben hasn’t covered all these things for over a decade here.

        2. I have been using zillow since the last housing crash and I remember when prices were going up and selling over listing the price sold data was top front and center. I believe they amplify whatever data makes it look like its still a good time to buy and repress anything that doesn’t.

  8. Not impressed.

    Opinion: The cost of Biden’s economic plan to the stock market is more than you might think
    Published: July 10, 2020 at 1:11 p.m. ET
    By Nigam Arora
    Higher taxes and more regulations would cut corporate profits

    While momentum investors are increasingly focused on ever-higher stock prices, prudent investors should start focusing on the presidential election.

    Democratic front-runner Joe Biden released his “Buy American” economic plan to challenge President Trump. Still, investors need to ask how Biden would pay for the plan. He could take away Trump’s tax cuts for corporations and the rich. But Biden and Trump might also share a strategy: Borrow more and influence the Federal Reserve to print more money.

    Readers know that I am politically agnostic. My sole job is to help investors. Let’s explore the issue with the help of a chart.
    …

    1. ‘…“Buy American” economic plan to challenge President Trump…’

      Biden is copying Trump’s plan in order to beat Trump at his own game?

      That’s gotta be one of the dumbest ideas I’ve ever heard since unsuccessfully beginning long ago to try to ignore politics.

    2. Brace yourself for a return to power of the climate extremists.

      The Biden-Sanders climate-change policy pact: 8 key features
      Published: July 10, 2020 at 9:49 p.m. ET
      By Rachel Koning Beals
      Former Secretary of State John Kerry and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were co-chairs of the climate-change task force
      Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders take part in a debate earlier this year. The two have just released their Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force plan, which includes goals for slowing climate change. Getty Images

      Presidential candidate Joe Biden has advanced environmental policy recommendations that most analysts find more ambitious than his stance in favor of curbing man-made climate change earlier in his campaign.

      The climate goals — including a call to eliminate carbon emissions from power plants by 2035 and modernizing the electric grid to help achieve this — were part of the presumptive Democratic nominee’s collaboration with former contender Sen. Bernie Sanders and his more progressive platform.

      Biden is now running on the recommendations advanced as part of the Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force, which were submitted by six policy areas covering climate change, health care, criminal justice, education and more. The recommendations will be submitted to the Democratic National Committee’s party committee as a “starting point” for their consideration.
      …

    3. So, Unemployment soars to record highs, stock market has largest gains in history?

      How is Biden going to fix or even affect this statement?

    1. The Tesla shorts are getting crushed. This is Robinhood momentum-chasers and Powell Bux, not fundamentals.

      1. Shenanigans in options market. ZeroHedge has an article on it. Or, check out @TeslaCharts on Twitter.

      2. Someday, someone is going to get fabulously wealthy on The Big Tesla Short, and probably will even make a movie out of it later on. But with so many trillions in Powell Bux flooding the market, the timing of any reversion of stock prices to fundamentals has never been more tricky to guess.

        1. probably will even make a movie out of it later on

          In progress. @evdefender “Investigative developer and documentarian on the collapse of the Elon Musk empire. evdefender @ https://t.co/LpPvQHdIi0, ask for Signal #”

  10. The Well Fargo thing, a clarification: I think the idea is that WFC will lose interest income on the low/er refi mortgage rates, so they are forcing new customers to bring deposits (or investments) on which WFC can pay a low interest rate and make money on the spread (or fees). That’s what “bring balances” meant. To me it seemed counter-intuitive that someone with 1M cash and investments would NEED a jumbo loan, but of course jumbo loans can be quite big. An some people like debt :).

    More from the CBC article:

    Last week, the bank issued an “expansion of guidelines” that did away with the $250,000 requirement for existing customers: People with a Wells Fargo bank or brokerage account of any level, or those who already had a mortgage with the firm, as of the end of June were granted access to jumbo refinances.

    “The changes we implemented on July 1 substantially increased the number of borrowers from which we’ll accept applications for non-conforming refinances,” Wells Fargo spokesman Tom Goyda said in an emailed statement.

    But for new customers, who could previously bring $250,000 to the bank if they wanted a jumbo refinance, the lender has become more discerning. The $1 million requirement can be satisfied with a combination of deposits or investment balances, the people said.

    1. counter-intuitive that someone with 1M cash and investments would NEED a jumbo loan

      Preserving liquidity.

          1. No, it doesn’t. Perhaps you should attend a naturalization ceremony and speak with our new citizens about their reasons for coming here.

  13. This put Jo into such tough times, that they, too, decided to sell their properties.”

    Gosh, I wonder if all these landlords jettisoning their money-bleeding properties is going to put downward pressure on rents and shack prices.

  14. With a growing number of residents leaving the city, the New York City rental market took a beating in June, a new report has found.

    De Blasio has a plan to remedy this. More lockdowns and more BLM protests.

    Under thy shadow by the piers I waited;
    Only in darkness is thy shadow clear.
    The City’s fiery parcels all undone,
    Already snow submerges an iron year . . .
    From To Brooklyn Bridge by Hart Crane

    so painfully to this
    countryside, this graveyard
    this stillness
    on deathbed or mountain
    once seen
    never regained or desired
    in the mind to come
    where all Manhattan that I’ve seen must disappear.
    From My Sad Self Allen Ginsberg

    My eyes grew dim, and I could no more gaze;
    A wave of longing through my body swept,
    And, hungry for the old, familiar ways,
    I turned aside and bowed my head and wept.
    From Claude McKay, The Tropics in New York

  15. The number of apartments listed for rent in Manhattan also made a record jump, with inventory up nearly 85% from last year. Available listings in Brooklyn and Queens grew, too, with inventory up 57% and 41%, respectively, from last year.”

    Is that a lot?

  16. More Gimme Dats occupying vacant investor-owned homes in blue cities like Philly where the rule of law is crumbling. Now all BLM has to do is declare it’s rayciss to evict them, and the municipal Democrat administrations will take a knee and declare such occupations are legal and justified.

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/935dy5/homeless-people-are-moving-into-vacant-homes-in-philly-and-fixing-them-up

    Around the time Philadelphia issued its “stay-at-home order” for the coronavirus, in late March, local activists quietly moved about 40 homeless people, including Jay’s family, into 10 vacant homes. But all of the properties are owned by the Philadelphia Housing Authority (PHA), organizers say, and the public agency — which is independent of the city’s government — has decried the protest as illegal and dangerous.

  17. HCQ battle du jure: After the Henry Ford study provided the best evidence yet for early administration of HCQ, Trump and Pete Navarro are again fighting for the FDA to reconsider pulling their authorization for HCQ. The Washington Compost, of course, is fighting back. Their newest take is that if the director of the FDA “caves in” to the White House and re-authorizes HCQ, the flip flop would be a hit to the FDA’s credibility. Evidently WaPo can’t figure out that “early” and “late” are not the same thing.

    The comment section is apoplectic with TDS. A third the commenters say that Trump just wants to make money — off of a generic drug that costs 20 cents 🙄 — another third are saying that Trump is doing this to commit genocide against Americans in general and African Americans in particular, the last third are criticizing that Navarro isn’t a doctor. Because all those commenters are esteemed MD?

    1. More drugs. More vaccines. More drugs. More vaccines. Because Americans aren’t consuming enough pharmaceuticals and aren’t vaccinated enough already.

      1. and aren’t vaccinated enough already

        Just how many vaccines doe the average American adult get every year? I’m gonna guess it’s not even 1 vaccine. Remove the flu shot and I’ll bet that number is close to zero. Per a U.S. News poll, about half of all adults get a flu shot.

        And I’m gonna guess there will never be a covid-19 vaccine.

          1. Some years ago we were signing up one of the kids for high school and were asked about vaccination records. I asked the clerk what they did with illegals, who had no records. She told us that they would get a waiver.

          2. Waivers? What BS. When I was going to college (late 80s), they didn’t hand out waivers. They sent you away with a couple scrips and said “don’t come back until you’re done.” I had to get a couple shots in the days before classes started.

          3. She told us that they would get a waiver.

            Nice! I was told earlier this month by a friend with a 9-month-old that it’s much harder for US citizens to obtain them here in Commiefornia.

          4. it’s much harder for US citizens to obtain them here in Commiefornia

            Pretty hard out here too. But if you’re here illegally, no problem.

    2. And Donald Rumsfeld just sits back and smiles and waits to make his billions on remdesivir.

      1. Shopping at WALMART is much cheaper than remdesivir. No one ever gets sick from CV shopping at WALMART. No matter how many booger-picking fingers press the same numbers on the same pad, no matter how many unwashed vagabonds are coughing in the parking lot, no matter how many nerdy greasy gamer teenagers who haven’t showered in a week fondle the same electronics and video games, no matter how many unkempt toddlers with runny noses and diarrhea handle the same toys, no matter how many frugal shoppers rifle through the same clothes on the same clothing rack, no one ever gets CV at WALMART. it’s a magical place where you are always safe.

        1. 15 days to flatten the curve has turned into lockdowns and masks forever. You don’t need a degree in biochemistry or epidemiology to understand this because it’s not a pandemic. It’s an agenda.
          :
          The Milgram Experiment
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdrKCilEhC0
          The Asch Experiment
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYIh4MkcfJA
          The Stanford Prison Experiment
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPO6BrFTsWM
          The Bystander Experiment
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdpdUbW8vbw

    3. Trump should immediately order the FDA to absolutely, positively, under no circumstances recommend thalidomide for the treatment of wuflu.

      The deranged would be popping them like tic-tacs and within a decade we’d clear them out of the gene pool.

      1. thalidomide for the treatment of wuflu

        It’s a cancer therapeutic.

        within a decade we’d clear them out of the gene pool

        We’d have a generation of children with limb deformities.

      3. we’d clear them out of the gene pool

        So much love. We’ll kill you we love you so much.

        1. The level of effort being put into the fake love lately seems pretty low. Feels to me like things will get really honest pretty soon.

          1. Feels to me like things will get really honest pretty soon.

            Especially if the elections don’t go the way the Dems would like. They could decide to go for broke and flat out try to overthrow the government, with the Deep State’s help. Of course, that’s a gamble for all the marbles. If they fail, they’re gone.

          2. “Especially if the elections don’t go the way the Dems would like.”

            Just imagine the YouTube piglets squealing!

          3. Especially if the elections don’t go the way the Dems would like.

            They’re not going to. Once they decided to declare war on whitey, their voters started disappearing in droves.

    1. In a few years Seattle’s leadership will be wonder why many employers will have relocated to Bellevue, Redmond and other friendlier locales, while they demand a Federal bailout to pay the bills.

      1. Yep. We were just discussing this today in my team’s leadership meeting. Everyone wins if the jobs move to the east side — those of us living here don’t have to commute, real-estate is (presumably) cheaper, and tax burden is less.

  21. Goodbye, extra $600… Unemployment benefits won’t exceed former wages in next stimulus bill, Treasury’s Mnuchin says.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goodbye-extra-600-unemployed-workers-should-not-get-benefits-higher-than-their-old-wages-in-next-stimulus-bill-mnuchin-says-2020-07-09?mod=home-page

    “The House has passed legislation that would extend the $600 in extra weekly payments until December.

    Supporters say the add-on has been key in keeping families out of poverty as the jobless rate shot up, noting it typically only goes beyond offsetting a previously earned wage when that wage was very low. Critics claim companies are experiencing difficulty in recruitment, despite a national unemployment rate above 11%. ”

    At first I had mixed feelings about this, but now I don’t. Even if a waiter loses his job for the next two years (likely) he’ll still get his wages for doing NO WORK. Anyone who’s in poverty is already getting government assistance for NO WORK. No it’s not great, but it’s something.

      1. I was enjoying the thought that some of the many thousands of dollars in California state income taxes my wife and I have forked over since moving here were coming back to our unemployed young adult children instead of going towards welfare payments to support illegal immigrants.

      2. Oops sorry. When I said “it’s not great” I was referring to government poverty assistance.

        I don’t object to unemployment replacing low wages. After all, in a pandemic, you’re sort of doing “work” by staying home and/or wearing masks. But yeah, unemployment should not exceed the original wages. (for some higher-pay layoffs maybe they’ll still get the full $600?) My guess is they’ll pass something, but it will be on some formula or sliding scale.

    2. Most of these people are making over $50,000 in unemployment in a year. That is lunacy. Who’s paying for this? You guessed it – you and I. Cut this sh!t off immediately.

  24. It turns out that central banks pumping trillions in Unlimited QE balance sheet expansion into the markets at a record pace can lead to asset prices that make no sense whatsoever in light of economic fundamentals. Major shocker!

    The Financial Times
    Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
    Markets Briefing US Treasury bonds
    Treasury yields hit two-month lows in jittery week
    Disconnect amplified between bond and equity markets
    © AP
    Eric Platt and Colby Smith in New York 2 hours ago

    A fresh burst of demand for US government bonds pushed yields on 10- and 30-year debt down this week to the lowest level since states began loosening lockdown restrictions, as a rise in deaths linked to the pandemic raised concerns over reopening the economy too soon.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid as low as 0.56 per cent on Friday before rebounding, while the yield on the five-year note hit a record low of 0.26 per cent.

    The potential for fresh lockdowns has increased demand for the safety of Treasuries and amplified the disconnect between nervous bond markets and equity markets that have held on to their gains since a nadir in March and continue to trade near highs for the year.

    “We don’t agree with what the bond market is telling us, but we respect it,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities.

    The US government secured record-low interest rates on three- and 10-year debt at auctions this week even as its borrowing needs swelled. A $19bn 30-year bond auction was also met with elevated interest from investors.

    The strong demand for haven assets emerged after several US states reported further increases in coronavirus cases, after Florida on Thursday recorded its largest death toll since the crisis spread to the US.

    Some succour was provided to nervous investors on Friday after Gilead released data showing its potential coronavirus treatment remdesivir had reduced mortality rates in early trials. That provided a bump to stocks and tempered the gains in Treasuries.

    Some economists believe that even if the US death rate does accelerate, markets should be able to absorb the shock.
    …

    1. The Financial Times
      Peter Wells 2 hours ago
      US reports record increase in new coronavirus cases

      The US reported a record increase in new coronavirus cases on Friday, while deaths rose by more than 800 for the fourth day in a row.

      A further 66,645 people in the US tested positive for coronavirus over the past 24 hours, according to Covid Tracking Project data, up from 58,836 on Thursday and about 4,500 more than the previous record on Wednesday.

      Florida (11,433) and Texas (9,765) had the biggest increases since Thursday, but were both less than recent record jumps.

      Georgia reported a record 4,484 new cases over the past day, besting its previous record from earlier this month by more than 1,000. The data came as the mayor of Atlanta, the state’s capital, would roll back its reopening plan to phase one.

      A record 15 states reported one-day increases of more than 1,000 new cases, according to Financial Times analysis of Covid Tracking Project data.

      Florida revealed 6,974 people were hospitalised with coronavirus in the state, the first time it has reported that figure to Covid Tracking Project. Only Texas, where the number of currently hospitalised people topped 10,000 for the first time, and California, with 7,896 have more patients receiving care.

      A further 854 people died from coronavirus over the past 24 hours, the fourth day in a row fatalities have risen by more than 800, and compared with an increase of 624 last Friday.

      1. So the lockdown didn’t work to mitigate the risk. Damn. I guess they won’t be asking us to do that again. Or should we just stay locked down FOREVER?

    3. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Lunch with the FT Life & Arts
      Anthony Fauci: ‘We are living in the perfect storm’
      The straight-talking scientist on keeping the peace … and the hunt for a Covid-19 vaccine
      © James Ferguson
      Hannah Kuchler 17 hours ago

      I hear Anthony Fauci before I see him. Out of view of our video call, he asks his tech assistant: “Have you wiped down the table?” The assistant, who has already sprayed down the 79-year-old’s chair, hurries to disinfect the desk. The top adviser on the White House’s coronavirus task force cannot afford to fall ill.

      Of all the unenviable jobs in this pandemic, Dr Fauci may have the trickiest. He is a leading public health scientist in a world growing suspicious of expertise; an affable self-described humanist in a society where soundbites get more play than sound advice. After 36 years as director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, he is facing a challenge that eclipses even the epidemics he has previously battled — Aids and Sars.
      …
      We meet this week as the situation is becoming even more dire. Overflowing hospitals in Houston are beginning to look like New York’s in April, while areas of states including Texas, California, Arizona and Florida are starting to shut back down.

      “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say we have a serious ongoing problem, right now, as we speak,” Fauci says, in an accent tinged by his native Brooklyn. He warned Congress late last month that the number of new cases could rise to 100,000 a day. “What worries me is the slope of the curve,” he explains, using his fingers to draw a chart in the air. “It still looks like it’s exponential.”

      Fauci arrived on screen by bouncing into his padded beige chair at his office in Bethesda, Maryland, wearing a blue shirt and tie. Energetic in spite of his advancing years, he still has more wrinkles and grey hairs than Brad Pitt, who played him on Saturday Night Live, a sign of his sudden popularity with Americans craving sober leadership.

      He displays his turkey and provolone sandwich to the camera. “You destroyed my routine!” he jokes.
      …

    4. PCR vs antibody? Big difference re: transmissibility. Antibody tests specific for SARS-CoV-2? Presumed number of positive cases via contract tracing? Hospitalizations “with” vs “of” COVID? Deaths “with” vs “of” COVID?

      1. The Narrative is not for people who can think.

        Why there is a coordinated messaging of misinformation is the big question.

  27. “These counties include 11 suburban areas around New York City, seven in Chicago, five in the Washington, D.C. area and four around Baltimore. ”

    LOL@broke ass DebtDonkeys 🤣

  28. I’m taking the impression that California’s economic reopening, beach reopenings, and BLM lootfest have completely unraveled the curve flattening achieved by Governor Newsom’s Stay at Home order earlier this year. The economy was clobbered by a wrecking ball for nothing.

    1. Los Angeles Apparel factory ordered closed after over 300 coronavirus cases and 4 deaths
      By Sarah Moon and Jon Passantino, CNN
      Updated 8:07 AM ET, Sat July 11, 2020

      (CNN) A garment manufacturer in downtown Los Angeles with over 300 confirmed coronavirus cases among employees has been ordered closed after an investigation into the deaths of four workers, county health officials said Friday.

      The Los Angeles Apparel had three deaths in June and one in July, prompting an investigation, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health announced in a statement.

      “The death of four dedicated garment workers is heartbreaking and tragic,” said Dr. Barbara Ferrer of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. “Business owners and operators have a corporate, moral and social responsibility to their employees and their families to provide a safe work environment.”
      …

    3. California, After Riding a Boom, Braces for Hard Times
      Early hopes for a quick rebound from the pandemic have yielded to worries about its long-term impact on state finances and the governor’s ambitious agenda.
      Businesses in California had hoped that the state’s early pandemic restrictions would lead to a quicker, stronger recovery. That hasn’t happened.
      By Conor Dougherty
      July 10, 2020

      OAKLAND, Calif. — When California shut down its economy in March, it became a model for painful but aggressive action to counter the new coronavirus. The implicit trade-off was that a lot of upfront pain would help slow the spread, allowing the state to reopen sooner and more triumphantly than places that failed to act as decisively.

      But the virus had other plans, and now the state’s economy is in retrenchment mode again. For the nation, this means that an important center of its output — a magnet of summer tourism and home to the technology and entertainment industries along with the world’s busiest port operation — is unlikely to regain momentum soon when growth is needed most.

      For the state, it means a progressive agenda predicated on the continuation of good times will be hampered as governments move from expansion to cuts. Voters had mostly been open to paying for expanding services and priorities like affordable housing, but they seem to be turning wary of new taxes.
      …

    4. California
      California sees two deadliest days since pandemic began as Covid-19 cases rise
      State has now reported 296,500 infections and 6,700 deaths, while Newsom said seven-day average topped 8,000 new cases a day
      Mario Koran
      Fri 10 Jul 2020 18.16 EDT
      Last modified on Sat 11 Jul 2020 04.30 EDT

      California has experienced one of its toughest weeks yet in the battle against coronavirus, with the state chalking up its two deadliest days since the start of the pandemic as cases continue to rise.

      On Wednesday the state topped its previous single day death toll, reporting 149 fatalities. That was followed a day later by the second-deadliest day, when the state tallied 137 fatalities.

      California has now reported 296,500 coronavirus cases and 6,700 deaths, according to public health data. The governor, Gavin Newsom, said on Thursday the state’s seven-day average had topped 8,000 new cases a day, its highest yet.
      …

    6. Ideas
      Vigilance Had a Three-Month Shelf Life
      The end of California’s coronavirus miracle holds sobering lessons.
      July 10, 2020
      Robert M. Wachter
      Professor of medicine at University of California, San Francisco
      An illustration of the California bear with a coronavirus map.
      NIH / The Atlantic

      On March 1, California seemed destined to be pummeled by the coronavirus. America’s most populous state has large, crowded cities and a diverse population, and travel between it and Asia and Europe is prodigious. Seattle, another West Coast hub, had just become the first U.S. city to be hit by the virus, and a cruise ship crawling with COVID-19 was about to enter San Francisco Bay.

      Three months later, California had weathered the virus’s first storm. By June 1, the state had experienced a total of 115,000 cases and 4,200 deaths. In contrast, New York State, its population half that of California, had seen 372,000 cases and 29,900 deaths, not counting thousands more who died at home. Had California’s per capita mortality rate equaled New York’s, 55,000 more people would have died.

      I and others dubbed it the “California miracle.”

      A month later, the miracle has evaporated. Case and hospitalization rates in California have doubled since early June. Although mortality rates have lagged, deaths will invariably follow. So will finger-pointing. How did the Golden State manage to screw things up after such a promising start? California’s experience shows that doing the right thing matters—but gives you no special privilege when you stop doing it.
      …

      1. Case and hospitalization rates in California have doubled since early June. Although mortality rates have lagged

        The number of tests in California has doubled since early June. The number of people in the ICU who test positive has increased, but the number of people in the ICU has not increased at all. The number of empty ICU beds in California is dead flat.

        …deaths will invariably follow.

        Still appears to be an invariably fraudulent narrative.

    7. Opinion Commentary
      Cross Country
      California Wants a Federal Bailout? Tax Reform Must Come First
      Washington can help fill Sacramento’s budget hole, but the money should come with strings attached.
      By Gerald L. Parsky
      July 10, 2020 5:56 pm ET
      Los Angeles

      California is facing a $54 billion budget deficit—equivalent to 37% of the total budget. To help address the shortfall, Gov. Gavin Newsom wants billions of federal dollars. Not so fast. Any bailout should come with strings attached. Washington should tie assistance to tax reform, putting the Golden State’s finances on stable footing while also stimulating investment and growth.
      …

      1. “California wants a Federal Bailout…”

        Absofawkinglutely NOT. Make Governor Nuisance crawl on his hands and knees and beg, while apologizing to ICE and the American people for the damage he has done. Then, after he’s done deporting all the illegals, a conversation can be STARTED.

        1. Make Governor Nuisance crawl on his hands and knees and beg

          … over broken glass. Don’t forget that part

        2. He and other super broke blue state governors know that they are in huge trouble. They desperately need to get Biden elected and take control of the senate, then the milk and honey will flow their way. But if that doesn’t come to pass, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth.

          3. “Or the gallows for some.”

            Angry mobs don’t have time for a gallows; they settle for the nearest thing that’ll support the weight.

          4. Angry mobs don’t have time for a gallows

            The gallows are for those who betrayed our nation and their oaths of office. It has nothing to do with anger or mob rule.

    8. You also need to consider the D614G mutation. It’s probably that Cali and Washington were first subjected to the original Wuhan virus. That curve flattened, but then the European mutation — which is more contagious — swept through even faster. That’s what we saw in March. China was hiding numbers, yes, but when it hit Italy and Iran it lit on fire. Early skeptics suspected a new mutation for Iran and Italy and they were right.

    9. “Flattening the curve” is only beneficial if there’s a vaccine coming. I doubt there is, meaning all they’re doing is destroying the economy.

      2. “Flattening the curve” is only beneficial if there’s a vaccine coming.

        It’s also helpful even if you’re trying to get to herd immunity just to avoid overloading the medical system. That’s the original reason we were told to do it and then everyone got their hopes up that we could medicate the problem away and not have to take the losses required to get to herd immunity.

  29. Sounds like urban housing demand in the U.S. is toast.

    Wonder Land: After months of the pandemic, protests and failing progressive leadership, many are going to move out of U.S. centers. Images: Getty Images Composite: Mark Kelly

  30. The Financial Times
    Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
    Coronavirus economic impact
    US heads for fiscal cliff as stimulus fades
    Economists worry that political stand-off over extension of aid could damage recovery as pandemic rages
    A closed store front in New York on July 6
    US economists have criticised Washington’s failure to renew the jobless benefits
    © JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
    James Politi in Washington 5 hours ago

    Peter Griesar, the founder of Brazos Tacos in downtown Charlottesville, Virginia, was so disturbed this week that the US might rein in its fiscal stimulus as the pandemic continued to rage that he fired off a tweet from his restaurant’s account.

    The $600 per week emergency jobless benefits helping millions of Americans — and some 10 to 15 of his former employees — to stay financially solvent were not a “disincentive to work”, he wrote. The payments, which are due to expire this month if Congress does not act, were needed because of “demand suppressed” by coronavirus.

    “We don’t see that changing for the rest of the year. Extend it,” he wrote, tagging Virginia’s two Democratic senators and the area’s Republican member of the House of Representatives.

    Mr Griesar’s lament is echoed by many US economists, who decry Washington’s failure to renew the jobless benefits. These payments have been pumping about $18bn per week into the world’s largest economy since the crisis began. According to a study by economists at the University of Chicago and the National Bureau of Economic Research released this week, the unemployment support has even exceeded prior earnings for 68 per cent of workers, and doubled them for the lowest-wage workers.

    While Democrats have pushed to maintain them until the economy improves, the White House and Congressional Republicans are resisting on the grounds that they discourage employment. The stand-off risks creating a dangerous economic cliff unless it is soon resolved.
    …

    1. At the end of the day, the black, brown, white, etc., looters are not going to put in the effort to study for a slot in today’s complex workplace. It’ll be right back to living with some welfare ho with a litter from multiple dads in her section-8 crib, and spending the days hanging with ‘da homies.

  32. New poor ilegals that can’t speak the language are going to be at a disadvantage. This is just built in to all poor immigrants that came to America. To suggest that it’s racism rather than starting from scratch in new foreign lands is the big lie. The ability to assimilate is also key for success. Also Commerce has always taken advantage of the starting from scratch poor. It’s a money thing, they don’t care what race a person is.

    Now it’s considered that the English language and institutions of Western Civilization is a product of White Privilege.

    If I went to Africa broke and didn’t know the language I would not expect to be a overnight success and call the Africans racist because the dominate culture was African.
    Yet, the nut Commies are saying that it’s White Privilege and racism.

    The Commies are just using the Racism claim to break down the Society so a Communist regime can replace our Constitutional Republiic.
    In Germany they are having a problem with the immigrants from war torn places assimilation. The language difference, the religion and culture differences.

    The original immigrants that came to Ellis Island had to work their ass off because they were not given welfare. They wanted to become Americans because they were fleeing worse situations.
    To suggest that the USA is bad and white people are bad is absurd.
    The current immigrants are the give me types claiming that it’s their right to take tax benefits from the established culture. Further they claim that America should be given back to them because the USA is really theirs.so we are suppose to burn the USA flag.
    The Welfare State created gang infested Communities that didn’t assimilate. The entire welfare system was corrupted and hijacked by a Political party to bribe votes.
    It’s really Political corruption that’s at fault and the rich Globalist bribe to keep the racism theme goin to take the heat off their looting of the USA.
    So, we have class warfare mislabeled as racism so the Looters can continue to Rio off the American pie.
    Now they want reverse discrimination to Whites as they greatest diversion in history of the power factions hijacking the USA by the Political class.
    Now we are being attacked by the mobs and Commie groups like BLM with the full endorsement of the Dem party and Corporate America. It couldn’t be any clearer what powers are in bed with each other.

    1. Yet, the nut Commies are saying that it’s White Privilege and racism.

      Yeah, we’ve got to stop listening to them. I have some hope of that since they annoyed everyone overplaying their hand in Seattle.

Comments are closed.