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More And More People Are Seeking To Sell And Move Out

A weekend topic starting with Senior Housing News. “Senior housing capital markets remain unstable. Titan SenQuest Management CEO Kevin Kaseff believes that, while the pandemic hastened a bear market, this is actually the beginning of a market correction. ‘This [looks like] a classic cycle. Everybody is more conservative,’ he said.”

“‘We’ve had to speak to twice as many lenders per deal as we used to, and we’re getting about half as many term sheets. Arguably, you could say it’s four or fiver times harder to get things done,’ said Carnegie Capital Managing Partner JD Stettin.”

“Even the strongest sponsors are feeling the pressure. Titan SenQuest received a lending quote from one of the agencies on a deal that required the owner to set aside nine months of cash operational reserves in what it called a ‘Covid holdback’ valued at $450,000. ‘The only [sponsor] would do that deal is somebody who is incredibly desperate,’ Kaseff said.”

“‘One of the things we’ve seen people freezing on is folks who are used to or only comfortable with non-recourse terms. They either have to start getting comfortable with signing on recourse debt, or we’ll have to wait out this term in the market,’ Stettin said. ‘If you’re willing to write a 30% equity check and post maybe six, nine or 12 months of reserves, then I think you have a great opportunity.'”

The Wall Street Journal. “Just when many owners of hotels in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California thought the worst of the pandemic was behind them, a surge of Covid-19 cases in those states is spoiling any near-term recovery hopes. ‘We saw a nosedive in our reservation trend,’ said Heiko Dobrikow, general manager of the 231-room Riverside Hotel in downtown Fort Lauderdale.”

“Travellers can show up at the last minute and get a room because hotels are operating at such high vacancy rates compared with normal times. ‘There’s plenty of availability,’ said Andreas Ioannou, chief executive of hotel owner Orchestra Hotels + Resorts, whose properties include the Hilton Fort Lauderdale Beach Resort. ‘People know they can walk in and get a room.'”

From Boston.com on Massachusetts. “Along with disrupting higher education, one of Boston’s key industries, the change in how courses are instructed also stands to reduce drastically the number of students who actually need to live in Boston in the fall. The years of landlords increasing rents by hundreds of dollars annually are likely in the rearview mirror, however. ‘Typically, independent landlords and luxury buildings raised rent by $100 to $300 every year for the last few years,’ said DJ Gendreau, a realtor with Douglas Elliman. ‘This year we’re seeing rents decrease.'”

From Bisnow Washington DC. “Apartment landlords felt a sharp impact from the coronavirus pandemic last quarter, with D.C.-area rents experiencing their greatest decrease since the turn of the millennium. The previous quarters with the highest rent drops this century were in Q3 2009 and Q4 2013, which each experienced roughly 3% declines, Delta Associates President Will Rich said. The drop in rents was caused by a significant decline in apartment demand, especially in the District, where absorption was down 25%, according to the report.”

“‘The apartment vacancy rate in the District was 6.8% at the end of Q2, up from 4.1% the same time last year. ‘There has been an impact on absorption, on rents, on vacancy, basically all of the metrics were impacted in some fashion by the pandemic,’ Rich said.”

From KVUE in Texas. “A new report by CoStar Group Inc. shows Austin has the sixth biggest drop in rent prices since the start of the pandemic in March. The director of analytics Sam Tenenbaum said over the past year, vacancies in Austin increased by about 2%, mostly due to construction. CoStar Group found in the second quarter of this year alone, the Austin area gained 4,000 new apartment units with about 14,000 more units under construction. Because of this, the Austin area has the fifth highest apartment vacancy rate of any large market in the country.”

From Patch New York. “Rents in Manhattan are becoming cheaper. Median one-bedroom apartment rents dropped 5 percent year-over-year in RentHop’s analysis of New York City’s rental market at the end of the second quarter of 2020. The plunge was driven by large dips in the median rent for one-bedrooms in neighborhoods such as the Flatiron District (10 percent decrease), Lincoln Square (9.2 percent) the Bowery (9.1 percent), Chelsea (8.8 percent) and Lenox Hill (8.6 percent).”

“‘Many neighborhoods across the five boroughs experienced price reduction due to reduced demand. Specifically, in Manhattan, one of the most expensive real estate markets in the nation, rent dropped in most luxury neighborhoods,’ the RentHop study reads.”

The Loveland Reporter Herald in Colorado. “A Chicago-based development company faces a foreclosure action and millions of dollars in mechanic’s liens over a stalled apartment project in Old Town Fort Collins. Contractors have filed liens totaling several million dollars against the property. Great Western Bank, which holds a deed of trust on the property, also filed a notice of election and demand July 13, citing an additional debt of almost $1.5 million. A notice of election and demand is the first step in the foreclosure process.”

“Doug Dohn, CEO of Dohn Construction, told BizWest that some of the other liens are encompassed in his $2.2 million lien. Dohn said CA Ventures lost financing for the project.”

The Greater Baton Rouge Business Report in Louisiana. “While some downtown office building owners are weighing whether to pump more outside air into their buildings, others aren’t even considering it, given the fact that hardly anyone is coming into the office. For Rich Major, who owns the side-by-side Providence and Orphanage buildings on Main Street, the thought of changing his air filter hasn’t even entered his mind. However, he says he also doesn’t plan to raise rents for his tenants.”

“‘The number of people going into my commercial buildings is so minimal these days,’ says Major, whose tenants are largely still working from home. ‘This is new to me.'”

From KOMO News in Washington. “More and more people are seeking to sell their homes and move out of Seattle area, according to a newly released report. The report by Redfin, found that the number of home sellers looking to leave the Seattle metro area has jumped to 13.7%, compared with 11.2% at the same time last year. Meanwhile, the net outflow of homeowners from Seattle has soared from 363 in the second quarter of last year to 6,007 in the second quarter of this year – a jump of more than 1,500%.”

From KCRW in California. “KCRW speaks with Evelyn Garcia, who manages a seven-unit apartment building in South LA. Her father owns the building and lives in it too. KCRW: Tell us about this building. How did your father come to own it? Evelyn Garcia: ‘My father got laid off. And he went ahead and refinanced his home and decided that perhaps this was something he could get himself to keep himself busy while he stopped working. … His regular employment … was sheet metal. And he decided to purchase this. … This is his only source of income. Yes, he went ahead and purchased it with the funding from his primary home and his retirement savings.'”

“Did anyone stop paying the rent in your building? ‘Yes, they certainly did. A lot of my tenants were unfortunately unable to pay the rent because of COVID. It’s been affecting us, but we’re willing to work with our tenants, and we’ve been really flexible with them.'”

“Are you working out mortgage payments out with the bank? ‘Yes, we’ve already spoken to the mortgagor. And thankfully we got a six month extension. And since our bank isn’t federally owned, or it’s not Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, unfortunately it’s a private bank. Everything is kind of up in the air. And I know that they have no obligation to assist us. I just don’t know what’s going to happen after six months, because we haven’t gotten a straight answer from them. So anything could happen. We could go into foreclosure after six months from now.'”

From Socket Site in California. “Back in 2007, the 1,670-square-foot, two-bedroom unit #27C in the St. Regis Museum Tower building at 188 Minna Street quickly fetched the $2.75 million price at which it was listed, financed by the Hong Kong-based Bank of East Asia. The unit returned to the market priced at $3.08 million in March of last year. Reduced to $2.7 million [in June of last year], the luxury unit was then withdrawn from the MLS at the end of [2019] and re-listed anew in January with a (further reduced) price tag of $2.53 million and an official ‘1’ day on the market.”

“And the sale of 188 Minna Street #27C has now closed escrow with a contract price of $2.3 million, representing a 16.4 percent ($450K) drop below its 2007-era value on an apples-to-apples, versus ‘median price,’ basis.”

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  1. ‘a 16.4 percent ($450K) drop below its 2007-era value on an apples-to-apples, versus ‘median price,’ basis’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

    1. “Back in 2007, the 1,670-square-foot, two-bedroom unit #27C in the St. Regis Museum Tower building at 188 Minna Street quickly fetched the $2.75 million price at which it was listed,
      …
      And the sale of 188 Minna Street #27C has now closed escrow with a contract price of $2.3 million, representing a 16.4 percent ($450K) drop below its 2007-era value on an apples-to-apples, versus ‘median price,’ basis.”

      Uhm…no. Sometimes I’m not really sure if these Realtors are liars, or just ignorant. For an apples-to-apples comparison, one needs to also factor in the corrosive effect of 13 years worth of Fed-engineered inflation on the value of the dollar. I’ll post the calculation in a bit.

      1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
        July 2007 207.603
        July 2020 256.087

        Drop in the value of a dollar since June 2007:

        207.603 / 256.087 – 1 = -18.9%

        Value of 2020 sale in 2013 dollars = $2.3 million ×207.603/256.087 = $1.86 million

        Apples-to-apples loss in 2013 dollars = $2.75 million – $1.86 million = $890,000.

  2. ‘This [looks like] a classic cycle. Everybody is more conservative’…‘We’ve had to speak to twice as many lenders per deal as we used to, and we’re getting about half as many term sheets. Arguably, you could say it’s four or fiver times harder to get things done’

    ‘Even the strongest sponsors are feeling the pressure. Titan SenQuest received a lending quote from one of the agencies on a deal that required the owner to set aside nine months of cash operational reserves in what it called a ‘Covid holdback’ valued at $450,000. ‘The only [sponsor] would do that deal is somebody who is incredibly desperate’

    This is a credit event.

    ‘‘One of the things we’ve seen people freezing on is folks who are used to or only comfortable with non-recourse terms. They either have to start getting comfortable with signing on recourse debt, or we’ll have to wait out this term in the market…If you’re willing to write a 30% equity check and post maybe six, nine or 12 months of reserves, then I think you have a great opportunity’

    By opportunity, he means foreclosures. And how many operators who gorged on non-recourse loans will qualify for recourse loans and have a huge stack of cash? Probably a handful across the US.

  3. “Grandmaster Jay” may or may not be a publicity-seeking rabble rouser, but he sure cracked the code on why the Founding Fathers bequeathed us a Second Amendment. Hope the planned NFAC rally in Louisville to press for long-overdue accountability in yet another needless “no knock” warrant shooting death goes off peacefully, and serves to remind the Powers that Be – especially the would-be gun grabbers – that the 2nd Amendment is the ultimate check on tyranny.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/black-armed-militia-planning-louisville-march-claims-its-not-f-ing-around

    “Once it gets to that point where it looks like the government is non-responsive to the will of the people, the Constitution says to [form a] militia to address the grievances of the people,” he told Louisville FOX affiliate WDRB-TV.

    “I didn’t write it,” he says about one of America’s founding documents. “They wrote it. We just abide by it. So that’s our destination, because when it looks like the government is being indifferent to the people, the people have the right to form themselves – and arm themselves — to ask those questions.”

    1. ‘he sure cracked the code’

      I watched a video of this clown claiming all of his “militia” were ex-military and they wanted the guberment to give them Texas. The video creator, pointed out they were mostly fat, didn’t know how to march, and one guy had his scope on backwards. They are mostly carrying 22’s BTW.

      1. I think he’s posturing, and his ultimate objective is to gain notoriety and maybe shake down some quaking spineless local Democrat municipal administrators. But I can respect the fact that after years of unchecked abuses and the trampling of the 4th Amendment in middle-of-the-night no knock raids, someone has finally said “enough.” Most of his guys might be posers, but at least they got off their a$$es and reminded the Powers that Be why we have a 2nd Amendment.

          1. Texas is the home of the redoubtable Comrade Beto, who would rally the soy bois for an Alamo-like stand against any attempt to turn their beloved state into a NFAC homeland.

            I slay me….

      2. The video creator, pointed out they were mostly fat, didn’t know how to march, and one guy had his scope on backwards.

        This just in:

        Gunshots erupted during a planned protest in Louisville, Ky., Saturday and three members of the heavily armed militia group, the “Not F—ing Around Coalition” (NFAC), were injured by shots fired from one of their own member’s guns, police told Fox News.

        Something tells me that they don’t have a military background or grew up in the country side and learned how to handle a weapon.

    2. Breonna was a tragedy, In the affidavit seeking a search warrant for Taylor’s house, Detective Joshua Jaynes wrote that he had seen Glover leave Taylor’s apartment in January with a USPS package before driving to a “known drug house” more than ten miles away.

      1. So that made it okay to execute her in her own bed after kicking down her door in the middle of the night?

      2. Boo……no but every single one of these shootings there is always a criminal element involved. ….If george floyd was a college professor i would be marching too, but not a low life drug addict criminal deadbeat excuse for a “father” content of character means a lot to me.

  4. Titan SenQuest Management CEO Kevin Kaseff believes that, while the pandemic hastened a bear market, this is actually the beginning of a market correction.

    Whoa, Kevin, you really went out on a limb making that call. You really earned your big bucks making such cogent assessments. I’d have never figured that out on my own.

  5. Arguably, you could say it’s four or fiver times harder to get things done,’ said Carnegie Capital Managing Partner JD Stettin.”

    This is unfair. Debt donkeys shouldn’t have to jump through so many hoops to sign away their financial future.

  6. ‘If you’re willing to write a 30% equity check and post maybe six, nine or 12 months of reserves, then I think you have a great opportunity.’”

    Nah, the “great opportunities” won’t present themselves until after the Everything Bubble has cooked off like a Supernova. Strategic patience will be well-rewarded once the long-deferred financial reckoning day lays waste to the Fed’s Ponzi markets and asset bubbles.

      1. A friend’s wife works on a higher-end elder care facility, part of a national chain. I’ve been aghast at the stories she tells of how the corporate management wants to extract every bit of wealth from the olds and their families, while maximizing profits and cutting corners on patient care. I hope to God I never end up in such a place – it’s bad enough to work there, much less be a resident.

        1. IMHO,
          The medical system, which includes nursing homes, is designed to gouge every last penny out of the olds. This is another form of looting from the offspring of old people.

          When you have price fixing monopoly medical care you get gouge care .

          Because people have to work it’s difficult to avoid the system of care for.
          Not only were these nursing homes a hot bed for respestory deaths yearly, but the cost savings was at the expense of the patient and their family.

          This is all a greedy racket and it’s part of the looting of USA citizens by the monopolists.
          Medicare for all would be bad care for all with monopoly prices remaining for the Looter monopolist with their co conspirators being Big Government.

          And your taxes would be raised to pay for less care .
          Anytime the Government wants to tie a product into taxes you choice is gone. Run for the hills when they want to tie something into Fed taxes, as ObamaCare clearly did.
          It’s all a rip like all the rigged markets are. Go back to real Capitalism and get the corrupt Government out of commerce.

        2. The way things are going, it looks like I’m going to eat a bullet at the end. I refuse to end up in such place.

          2. Be aware that the tyrants want to discourage and dishearten you. It’s part of their plan to take over.

            They have also made it as hard on preppers as they can. Before Trump they didn’t want people storing more than a month’s supply of food. They wanted us completely dependent on them.

            Don’t let them get you down. Lots of people are waiting for the right moment to resist them. We won’t be alone.

          3. I misinterpreted your post. I thought you were talking about the near future, not the natural end of life. Maybe Ben could delete my previous post.

          4. I refuse to end up in such place. At the point where one of your main options is “such place” you may find you suddenly lack the means to make the choice. Not everyone is able to wander off from the village in the dead of winter and conveniently disappear forever.

          5. Be aware that the tyrants want to discourage and dishearten you. It’s part of their plan to take over.

            Which is the very core of anarcho-tyranny. They want the law abiding to drop to their knees and whimper “please, make it stop.”

        3. My folks live in a church affiliated retirement community. It’s pricey for the Midwest, but the care seems decent. However, the advent of COVID-19 has greatly reduced social life, and commensurately increased the level of isolation for those living alone.

          1. pricey for the Midwest, but the care seems decent. There is still a lot of room for mis / mal / non/ and dumbfeasance on the part of the management. Residents of these places often have to commit alot of $ to be housed there, which leaves room for their resources to be siphoned away or looted outright.

    1. Rip and Boo,

      I didn’t mean to depress you all. There is always hope that that things will get better for all.

  8. The years of landlords increasing rents by hundreds of dollars annually are likely in the rearview mirror, however.

    Suck it, you greedy bashturds.

  9. ‘My father got laid off. And he went ahead and refinanced his home and decided that perhaps this was something he could get himself to keep himself busy while he stopped working. … His regular employment … was sheet metal. And he decided to purchase this. … This is his only source of income. Yes, he went ahead and purchased it with the funding from his primary home and his retirement savings’

    ‘Did anyone stop paying the rent in your building? ‘Yes, they certainly did’

    ‘Are you working out mortgage payments out with the bank? ‘Yes, we’ve already spoken to the mortgagor. And thankfully we got a six month extension. And since our bank isn’t federally owned, or it’s not Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, unfortunately it’s a private bank. Everything is kind of up in the air. And I know that they have no obligation to assist us. I just don’t know what’s going to happen after six months, because we haven’t gotten a straight answer from them. So anything could happen. We could go into foreclosure after six months from now’

    That train keeps a rollin’ Evelyn!

  10. “Apartment landlords felt a sharp impact from the coronavirus pandemic last quarter, with D.C.-area rents experiencing their greatest decrease since the turn of the millennium.

    Oh dear. I fear that in such a scenario, any speculators who overpaid for multifamily housing based on the assumption that the $16 trillion in funny money the Fed pumped into the financial system would continue indefinitely might be getting their heads handed to them.

  11. ‘The plunge was driven by large dips in the median rent for one-bedrooms in neighborhoods such as the Flatiron District (10 percent decrease), Lincoln Square (9.2 percent) the Bowery (9.1 percent), Chelsea (8.8 percent) and Lenox Hill (8.6 percent)’

    How are those 5% cap rates looking now?

  12. A Chicago-based development company faces a foreclosure action and millions of dollars in mechanic’s liens over a stalled apartment project in Old Town Fort Collins.

    “Luxury” apartments have been popping up in Fort Collins and Loveland like mushrooms after a long rain. Yet wages in both communities are low, far lower than Denver wages, which aren’t that great to begin with. Hundreds of apartments were built in downtown Loveland last year and most remain empty.

    Even during “good times” there were few who could afford those rents, but now?

    All those contractors, who are no doubt hurting for business, are going to get stiffed and will have to be content to get pennies on the dollar when the dust settles.

    1. This is how a recession unfolds. The problem with all these things, hotels, lux apartments, student housing, was it became a commodity. Detached from the supply and demand these guys jabber about non-stop. It was probably 4 years ago I posted an article on Phoenix saying they were building 15,000 senior units and that 95% of them were “luxury.” They just paid too much for the land.

      1. The thing I don’t get is why anyone thought that downtown Loveland or Old Town Fort Collins would be great places to live. I can drive to downtown Loveland in under 10 minutes, if I wanted to eat at a restaurant there, or visit the museum (yawn) or catch a live performance at the Rialto.

        Living there means I have to deal with the bums, whose numbers have been increasing.

        1. “numbers have been increasing”

          Arapahoe County is getting worse. The bus stop by the Englewood King Soopers is a beehive of bum fights and overdoses. Off Broadway Liquor (I know the owner) has a sign on the front door that says NO TALL CANS NO 40 OZ and tweakers come in there anyway arguing about why they can’t get a tallboy of Steel Reserve LOL.

          1. Compared to Denver, Loveland is still the Sea of Tranquility. But vagrants used to be rare. Now they are much more visible.

        2. “Living there means I have to deal with the bums, whose numbers have been increasing.”

          My Dad works at a local lumber yard near there and has been talking about the homeless moving in and screwing up the place for years.

      2. “ The problem with all these things, hotels, lux apartments, student housing, was it became a commodity. Detached from the supply and demand these guys jabber about non-stop.”

        Commodities are strictly subjected to supply and demand pressures, as interpreted (bet on) in the futures markets, no?

        I wish housing were *more* of a commodity, as I think the pressures on producing standardized, high-quality products while ruthlessly cutting costs amid greater transparency and the pressures of competition would drive up quality while driving down prices for consumers.

        How do you see this differently?

        1. What I mean is these things have become trades. Meant to be milked for tax deductions and cash out refis. Then they are sold, 1031 exchange and they do it again. These people aren’t in the hotel business or the apartment business really. They are in the RE flipping business. It has little to do with the underlying use. And they think it’s normal. The prices have gone up for so long they couldn’t see it ending. Until the market gets horribly oversupplied or there’s a recession. This is why they ignored historic ratios for cash flow and profit. It was meaningless to their true model.

          So much of the industry was in on it that they actually were able to force rents up for many years: what wasn’t built as luxury was value-added. We can thank Mel Watt for that: he insisted on pushing government backed loans of over $1 trillion in just a few years to value-add outfits. Up and up it went, til it started to fall apart a few years ago due to oversupply. Now throw in the recession disruption and there’s a bunch of CRE defaults piling up.

          1. Yeah, it’s the biggest government-sponsored scam going. It’s got to be the most corrupt industry in the world. The problem is, most of the citizens are in favor of it, as well as all of the non-citizens here. Nearly everyone wants money for nothing and no one thinks they will be the one left holding the bag. As long as “the other guy” is the one getting fleeced, your average flag-waving American will invent any moral justification for it they can.

  14. Prices are falling like choo choo trains and hotcakes!🤣

    South Lake Tahoe, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY As Foreclosures Rot Southern California Housing Market

    https://www.zillow.com/south-lake-tahoe-ca/home-values/

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As one Los Angeles broker conceded, “If you’re a buyer, the broker is lying to you. I know a liar when I hear one. I’ve been lying my entire life.

  15. In Boston it is obvious to everyone but deluded sellers that condo prices are in for a massive drop.

    Hopefully we can get back to a point where working people can afford a condo at a fair price that appreciates modestly each year as opposed to boom and busts.

    Insane commoditizing and applying Wall Street principals to housing has harmed the general public on many many levels.

    1. But they were massively overpriced to begin with. So if it drops massively we are only at where we should be if everyone was working and could afford it.

      But those people’s incomes have also massively dropped, so proportionally we’re at square one.

      1. Exactly right and in many cases condo and house prices in Boston and greater Boston have inexplicably doubled in the last several years.

      3. Housing prices are cratering.

        Agoura Hills, CA Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Foreclosures Rot Southern California Housing Market

        https://www.zillow.com/agoura-hills-ca/home-values/

        *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

        As one Los Angeles broker conceded, “If you’re a buyer, the broker is lying to you. I know a liar when I hear one. I’ve been lying my entire life.”

  16. Raleigh is still selling quickly
    Put up for sale And 3 days later an offer. Not full price offer so 7 people scheduled to look today.

    1. The ADA (Americans With Disabilities) act would cover him not wearing a mask.

      Certain conditions like COPD MIGHT (but not always) mean he is unable to breathe properly with a mask. Therefore any place of public accommodation, must make an accommodation for him.

      2. I’m surprised that no one has mentioned clear plastic facial shields. A previous study from 2012 tested how well facial shields blocked droplets and particles with a simulated sneeze. The shield blocked 96% of immediate sneeze and cough droplets. Admittedly, after a few minutes about 40% particles would circulate in the air and go under and around the shield. However, that’s almost as good as a surgical mask and probably good enough for COVID purposes.

    2. because he has a certain medical condition

      I suspect he’s being facetious. Between ADA and HIPAA, people think they can assert a disability for accommodation without having to prove the disability. Given my experiences getting disability access passes at amusement parks, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is true.

  19. I watched it happen inch by inch after living in the USA when free market capitalism was operative and Globalist didn’t give our jobs and manufacturing to China.

    I live here when health care was cheap and paid for by employers, and it was based on risk, and certainly not based on ilegals crossing the border, or paying for services you don’t want, or based on your income rather than your health risk .
    And amazing enough, the system still took care of health care of the poverty stricken by the various methods they had in those days. And the system wasn’t being overburdened by Big Pharma writing all the magic pills meds at outrageous prices. 30 % of the college students weren’t on anti depression meds like today, and stress was a acceptable byproduct of living where you didn’t need to be turned into a zombie by meds.

    You didn’t need safe places or trigger warnings and free speech actually developed your mind not stunted it.

    And in spite of World history being riddled with injustices by every ethic group in every Country, only America and White people are evil.

    African warriors captured other tribes and sold off their own kind to slavely in far off lands No mention of their evil or that the practice of slavery was going on World wide.

    BLM is a front for a Commie group that goal is to overthrown America by any false narrative possible.
    They want to demoralize the culture, attack law and order, go after Western Civilization and White people as the perceived enemy. This is in spite of the fact that none of the ethnic groups had a spotless history.
    The whole movement is a enemy of the USA and the Constitutional Republic , and no doubt a big Communist Country wants takeover also.

    But, the worse part is the Dem Party has become aligned with this insurrection, along with the Globalist..
    Under Covid-19 the evil fractions made their move, even willing to cause great harm to people. it’s sinister and evil.

    1. When I first started working it was like that with medical insurance but its been a steady slide ever since.

  20. “Senior housing capital markets remain unstable. Titan SenQuest Management CEO Kevin Kaseff believes that, while the pandemic hastened a bear market, this is actually the beginning of a market correction. ‘This [looks like] a classic cycle. Everybody is more conservative,’ he said.”

    Who wants to watch their parents enter an overpriced, COVID-19 infested senior living complex?

    1. The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      Education
      US universities under pressure to cut fees because of remote learning
      Georgetown joins Princeton among just a handful of elite institutions to make concessions to students
      Georgetown University is offering a 10% tuition discount to its students
      © Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty
      Andrew Jack in London yesterday

      Jackson Butler received an unexpected boost this week after growing frustration that his final year at Georgetown University would be largely taught online with limited access to its Washington DC base.

      “It’s very clear we’ll have a diminished experience,” he said. “There will be no extracurricular activities and we won’t be able to access resources on campus.”

      But after organising a petition of 2,000 students accusing Georgetown of “highway robbery” for maintaining its tuition fees at nearly $58,000 a year, the university backed down and offered a 10 per cent discount.

      Georgetown has become one of just a handful of elite US institutions to make such a gesture, with most resisting calls for discounts as they brace themselves for the hefty impact of coronavirus on their own budgets.

      Georgetown’s move adds to pressure on institutions around the world to make concessions to students who feel short-changed by what they say will be an inferior online university experience. Some hope it would strengthen efforts to seek reimbursements on fees for the year just ended, but which was curtailed when the pandemic struck.

      Princeton University last month reduced annual fees by 10 per cent to $48,500 to compensate for offering undergraduates half their normal time on campus in the coming year and half remotely.

      “We recognise there’s a difference in what we can deliver remote and on campus. It wasn’t possible for us to offer all students a place on campus for both semesters,” said Christopher Eisgruber, Princeton’s president.
      …

      1. Needless to add, the student housing bubble is charred toast, prepared using a flamethrower.

        1. using a flamethrower Speaking of which, I have a scarcely used HarborFreight flamethrower I am going to use to clear a patch of my back yard down to bare earth so I can plant a few more tomatoes. Local garden store had a 1/2 off scale of some great looking seedlings. Nothing clears unwanted weedy vegetation faster than this gizmo. Have to wait for the temps to get well below 90 deg F, though.

      2. A measly 10% off? These jackals take the cake. If these kids take that deal (or rather their parents), theyre dumber than I thought.

        Maybe they can gear up and start trashing the schools like the clowns are doing to downtown portland and seattle. That would be glorious.

      3. I would assume that big name schools like Georgetown and Princeton will ultimately be fine, as will state schools and community colleges. Small bougie liberal arts schools, on the other hand, seem to have a bleak future. Several have already closed here in the Boston area.

    2. Is the higher education bubble yet another casualty of the COVID-19 pandemic?

      Not likely, because their mission is to indoctrinate, not educate. They will be subsidized, one way or another.

      1. “Not likely, because their mission is to indoctrinate, not educate.”

        Maybe both, Wolf Gang the morbidly obese disabled “protester” seems to have quite the mastery of the English language.

        BLM Protester to Portland Cop: “Hope someone kills your family!”, “Hope Your Precinct burns down”

        Jul 12, 2020

        https://youtu.be/24ap9ffPKqY

      2. I agree with CedarApple. We will see the demise a dozens small bougie liberal arts schools. Their main advantage is individualized attention, which they can’t provide without their shady old in-person campuses. As for online learning, they won’t be able to compete with the major privates and state schools, all of whom have name recognition and massive online presence.

    1. “Economists polled by MarketWatch expect a contraction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33% in the second quarter. That’s much deeper than the previous worst-ever quarterly contraction of 10% seen in the first quarter of 1958.”

      1. RE: “…previous worst-ever quarterly contraction of 10% seen in the first quarter of 1958.”

        I have an elderly friend from my work circle. He’s somewhere between 85 and 95 years old…I haven’t seen him in a few years.

        Anyway, I once complained to him about the high price of housing in San Diego. He hearkened back to the time when he got a great deal on a house in SD…back in 1959.

        Reading how the real economy may have just experienced its largest drop since 1958 makes me wonder whether a golden age of affordable housing lies in store for California within the foreseeable future.

        1. makes me wonder whether a golden age of affordable housing lies in store for California within the foreseeable future.

          There is no such thing because of the taxes. The houses could be free, but they’re still not affordable.

        2. Curious… what made the economy drop in 1958? No hot wars, millions of factory jobs, women in the home instead of competing in the labor force, strong unions, few immigrants… 1958 was the Leave it to Beaver heyday. What happened?

          1. From Wikipedia …

            The Recession of 1958, also known as the Eisenhower Recession, was a sharp worldwide economic downturn in 1958.[1] The effect of the recession spread beyond United States borders to Europe and Canada, causing many businesses to shut down.[2] It was the most significant recession during the post-World War II boom between 1945 and 1970 and had a sharp economic decline that only lasted eight months. By the time recovery began in May 1958, most lost ground had been regained. As 1958 ended, the economy was heading towards new high levels of employment and production. Overall, the recession was regarded as a moderate one based on the duration and extent of declines in employment, production, and income.[1]

            Causes
            There were many major factors in the decline that exerted a growing downward pressure on production and employment, resulting in a general reduction of economic activity.[1]

            New car sales took a sharp dive.[why?] Auto sales fell 31% over 1957, making 1958 the worst auto year since World War II.[1] In just three short years, car sales fell from almost 8 million purchases in 1955 to 4.3 million purchases in 1958. Ford Motor Company’s failure of the Edsel was a major contribution to this problem within the industry.[3] In an effort to overcome declining auto sales, one of the hardest hit sectors of the slump, the Beyer DeSoto dealership of St. Louis put its salesmen on duty for 64 hours straight, as part of a sell-a-thon that raised sales 73%.[2]
            Housing construction slowed due to higher interest rates in 1955 and 1956. By 1957, new house construction had fallen to about 1.2 million units.[3]
            There was a gradual decrease in incoming business of capital goods industries,[1] which resulted in the ending of an expansive boom. The initial trouble began in 1956 with a deceleration in business planning for replacement of equipment and expansion of manufacturing facilities, resulting in a drop in new orders for equipment.[3] This created a widening gap between the supply and the use of industrial capacity.[1] Federal Reserve economists believed that the administration had contributed to the recession by cutting back on Department of Defense purchases in 1957.[3]

        3. Sadly probably not and not because I wouldn’t like it to be true. San Diego is both highly desirable and generally somewhat counter cyclical.

  23. I’m seeing some small multifamily “luxury” buildings being put up for sale lately. This one had rents around $8k-$11k per month when I lived nearby, but before covid I saw one apartment there available for around $5k per month, so it seems they had trouble getting luxury renters even before the pandemic. So much for 5% cap rates.

    8755 Shoreham Dr, West Hollywood, CA 90069
    https://www.redfin.com/CA/West-Hollywood/8755-Shoreham-Dr-90069/home/7120499

    Now check out the price history for the building –

    7/24/2020 Listed $12,995,000
    2/27/2013 Sold $460,000
    11/10/2011 Sold $4,000,000

    Guessing the 2013 was a refi to value add? Not sure, but asking price today is triple price paid 9 years ago. Any bets on whether that $13mil is close to what the owners refied out of the property over that time?

  25. I am in Palm Beach Gardens FL and the housing market in the past 30 days has been crazy here. Everything is going under contract and prices are continuing to increase while average time on market is decreasing. Don’t know whether it’s due to North easters moving from down south but whatever it is the market here seems to be on fire lately.

  27. Gotta love it. In two separate incidents, one in Louisville, KY and the other in Aurora, CO, “protesters” shot each other.

    In the Aurora incident, knuckleheads blocked I-225. A driver barreled through and they got out of the way. As the car passed a thug pulled out a gun and shot at the car, missing it while hitting two fellow thugs. I have no idea if the shooter has been apprehended or charged.

    1. Maybe they oughta lose on one of their BLM, I CAN’T BREATHE, DEFUND THE POLICE, NO JUSTICE NO PEACE signs and print this…

      Assume all guns are loaded all the time.

      Always keep the gun pointed in a safe direction.

      Never point the gun at anything you are not willing to shoot.

      Keep your finger off the trigger until your sights are on target and you are ready to shoot.

      Know your target and what lies beyond.

      2. BLM = “the gang that can’t shoot straight”?

        Nearly all the Aurora rioters are white soibois and whatever their female counterparts are called.

    3. There was a shooting last night in Dumver at what the media calls “a large gathering”. Shooters’ and victims’ races were not disclosed (we know what that means). I also suspect that “large gathering” is a new euphemism for rioting and looting.

  28. Liam Halligan
    Quantitative easing is a dangerous addiction
    We are hooked on the economic equivalent of crack cocaine
    From magazine issue: 11 July 2020

    The FTSE-100 index of leading stocks is over 20 per cent up since Britain went into lockdown — ‘bull market’ territory. The government borrowed £55 billion in May, nine times more than the same month last year — yet borrowing costs are down, with some investors now paying to lend to an increasingly indebted nation.

    Who cares if the UK economy will shrink some 10 per cent this year, as our national debt rockets above 100 per cent of GDP? Stocks are up, bond prices are up and the laws of economics have been suspended. It’s different this time — and all because of quantitative easing.

    Back in 2009, with the global banking system on the brink of collapse, QE was a justifiable emergency measure. But this one-off post-crisis necessity has now morphed into a lifestyle choice. For a decade since the financial crisis, QE has pumped up share prices and suppressed bond yields, allowing governments to borrow cheaply. But as state spending has surged post-Covid, we’ve become dependent. QE is now the economic equivalent of crack cocaine.
    …

  29. This is a good article …

    Valuation Inflation | Mauldin Economics
    https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/valuation-inflation

    (a snip or two)

    “Just three stocks make up more than 16% of the S&P 500 Index and over a third of the Nasdaq 100 Index. I bet you can guess which three. Apple, Amazon and Microsoft together are now valued at nearly $5 trillion. That’s larger than the entire economy of Germany and nearly the size of the Japanese economy.

    “What is really most astounding, though, is the aggregate valuation of these three behemoths relative to their free cash flow. Only at the peak of the Dotcom Mania did we see anything like it. The difference today is that these companies are growing free cash flow at a tiny fraction of the rate they grew it back then. If that was a bubble, then what is this?”

    (snip)

    “Extra Cash
    Back in March as the coronavirus spread in the US, organizations started cancelling large events. We didn’t know as much about the virus then but it was clear that crowds were hazardous. That includes sporting events.

    “On Wednesday, March 11, the National Basketball Association suspended its season after a player tested positive. But it was headed that direction anyway. Earlier the same day, the Golden State Warriors announced the team would play home games without fans present.

    “That was clearly the right move, health-wise, but it had a side effect no one considered at the time. Thousands of people who work for the teams and arenas, or in other related businesses, lost income. But sports gambling is a giant business in itself. The millions of people who wager billions of dollars suddenly had nothing to bet on. That proved important, for reasons we will see in a minute.

    “A few weeks later, Congress passed the bipartisan CARES Act which, among other things, gave most American adults a $1,200 one-time stimulus payment and added a $600 weekly federal payment to state unemployment benefits. This occurred as most of the country was in various levels of lockdown and many businesses closed. The payments were intended to help people through what we thought would be a short interruption.

    “All this happened very fast—so fast that it had to be simplified. Why not $500 or $700 for the unemployment benefit? I don’t know—but any number they chose would have been too little for some workers and more than enough for others.

    “As it turned out, the $600 from the federal government plus state benefits left many jobless workers making more than they did while working. This has helped. People are mostly making their rent and mortgage payments, for instance. Consumer spending held up better than expected, though its composition changed significantly.
    Still, that left a lot of extra money in the hands of people accustomed to spending whatever they have. The lower-earning half of the population has little experience with saving or investing.

    “As noted above, sports betting was also unavailable. So where did all that money go?

    “Enter Robin Hood
    Financial markets have been slowly “democratizing” for decades. In the 1960s, mutual funds gave the middle class a convenient way to own a diversified stock portfolio. Then came many more mutual funds, discount brokers, exchange-traded funds, and other innovations. All had the same effect: More people could invest more money in more kinds of markets.

    “Now we have a new stage in that process: commission-free stock trading, quickly accessible over the mobile device you already have, and in small amounts. Apps like Robinhood make investing simple and affordable. They do the same for day trading. But while they simplify the process, you still have to make the right decisions at the right time.

    “So now we have large numbers of small, inexperienced investors with spare cash from the government and an app in their pockets that looks a lot like a video game. And then there’s the sports connection, personified by now-famous blogger Dave Portnoy, who colorfully insists stocks can only go up and urges his large audience (which includes many idled sports bettors) to throw more money into the market. What could go wrong?”

    There’s more but I don’t want to eat up all of Ben’s bandwidth by posting it. I suggest everyone click on the link.

    FWIW.

    1. As it turned out, the $600 from the federal government plus state benefits left many jobless workers making more than they did while working.

      So why can’t they pay the rent?

    1. “Jeep drives through BLM/Antifa mob blocking I-25; idiot “protestor” (insurrectionist) shoots at vehicle, hits a fellow globalist minion. Priceless.”

      This comment fits, it’s from the video below.

      Robert Booker
      4 hours ago
      “Play stupid games, umm, you know the thing”!

    2. Homie didn’t miss 3 times, he missed 5 times. He shoulda took one of those fifty protests off and went to the damn range.

      1. In that first picture, aside from the fact that none of those “peaceful protesters” seem to have a problem with one of their regulars standing there with an AK-47, has anyone else noticed that many of these thugs are how shall I say it, well fed?

        At first I thought it was just those lagging behind when law enforcement was herding them out of an area that were pretty damn porky.

        Case in point

        https://youtu.be/24ap9ffPKqY

        1. Not to mention the protesting cow has her mask down to her triple chin and she’s spraying COVID spit all over her fellow “protester” Snoop Dog who is also maskless every time she tells the cops that she hopes their whole family burns.

          1. How deadly is Covid?

            Every day one out of 300,000 Americans die with a positive covid test. That’s about one in ten of all the people that die every day.

            One in ten healthy people test positive for Covid.

            It’s not glaringly obvious if Covid is having any impact at all on the mortality rate at present.

            Ironic.

          3. “One in ten healthy people test positive for Covid.”

            Man, ET could come back and he’d test test positive for Covid.

      2. The leftist who got shot had been out protesting (with his quadriplegic wife) for the past 50 nights.

        While collecting over $50,000 per year in UE bennies.

      1. I’m getting the feeling that the homeless kinda teamed up with BLM because they were on the streets already.

        I think homeless people would be game for Commies ideas. The fact that in so many of these Cities you had this increase of homeless and the health problems associated with it was already making Cities hellholds.
        It’s just evidence of a Society that has failed as the numbers of homeless and drug addicted increase.
        And the trillons from the welfare State hasn’t solved these expanding problems .
        And the outrageous looting going on by the systems in place is at breaking point.

        And Washington DC just double downs on protecting the corruption and long term failures.

        1. I think homeless people would be game for Commies ideas.

          They both have similar mental health issues. The Commies just have a bigger more accepting support network so they still think of themselves as part of productive society.

    4. 2nd YouTube link:

      “too big of a p*ssy to stop and do something about it”

      Garrett Foster, somebody did, and now you’re dead.

      Nothing of value was lost.

      1. Looks like Bolshevik Boy initiated the confrontation. F**ked around and found out. Scratch one Biden voter.

        1. The thing that is different today is people feel like the system is rigged against them, and it is. The corruption and looting and rigged markets put people in a no win box. The Government is picking the winners and losers and it has nothing to do with people’s efforts. The encouraging of being a debt slave is sinister.
          It’s going to take a lot to turn the USA ship around. It is not going to be turned around by a Biden election.
          The Commies and the Globalist/Monopolist where the most threatened by the Trump election. You have powerful forces that want to proceed with their looting of America , or overthrow of America.
          So, if they don’t want Trump that’s exactly who you vote for.

          1. The Government is picking the winners and losers and it has nothing to do with people’s efforts.

            Don’t confuse the monkey with the organ grinder.

    6. When I started college in Austin in 1965 I was surprised how many of my liberal professors carried pistols in their cars. Most all profs were WWII and Korean war veterans back then.

    7. First video at 0:59, the distraught “protester” fails to mention that the caretaker of the quadriplegic who had been out for all 50 days of the “protests” and had been shot was wielding an AK-47.

  34. How do governmental authorities expect to control the COVID-19 outbreak with BLM protesters constantly spreading it throughout the streets of American cities?

    1. Health mandates don’t apply to Protestors, so that in itself makes it political. Law and order isn’t even applying to these lawbreaker Looters in these left winged cities.

      Again, the true colors coming out which is confirmation of
      left wing Government being aligned with bizarre un-american groups,

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