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More Units Are Coming Onto The Market, And We’ll Have An Excess Of Inventory Well Into Next Year

A report from CNBC on California. “Greg Tribulato is having trouble getting buyers interested in two extensively renovated condominiums he’s trying to sell in San Francisco’s Mission district. They’ve been on the market for three months. The one with two bedrooms is going for $1.5 million, and the four-bedroom unit costs $2.3 million. He said he and his father, Gary, are talking with the seller about renting out the homes or lowering their prices.”

“They staged the homes, they created websites with custom domain names, videos and 3D digital tours, and they sent out flyers and emails to get people’s attention. ‘We did everything under the planet that’s humanly possible,’ he said.”

From USA Today. “Rents are falling across most major cities, like New York and San Francisco, after the coronavirus pandemic battered the U.S. economy in the spring, forcing landlords to offer incentives to attract new tenants following an exodus from urban areas. Compared with last year, rent in New York as of August is down 4.6% to a median of $2,716. In San Francisco, it has dropped 4% to $3,167, and in San Jose, California, it has declined by 3.8% to $3,129. In Boston, the fifth-most expensive metro area within the top 50, rents are down 2.8% to $2,490 since last year. Rents in Washington, D.C., Chicago, Austin, Houston, and Denver have also dropped since last year.”

“As landlords vie for new tenants, concessions on listings are now nearly twice as common as they were in February, according to Zillow. Concessions are often viewed by housing experts as a leading indicator of a coming price drop since landlords will often offer them first before reducing rent, said Joshua Clark, economist at Zillow. If owners feel they are no longer moving the needle, they’ll reduce prices, he added.”

“‘Big cities are losing demand because people are having a hard time finding jobs during the pandemic,’ says Clark. ‘Many recent graduates aren’t moving to big cities to start their dream jobs since hiring has frozen at many companies, and job losses have forced others to move back in with their families.’ Further drops in rental prices are likely this year, he said.”

“Bill Kowalczuk, a broker at Warburg Realty in New York City, said the drop in rental prices in Manhattan is the worst he’s seen in his more than two decades of work in the real estate industry. ‘No matter where I look, an amazing deal can be found. People are throwing ridiculous offers at me to see what landlords will do,’ says Kowalczuk, who added that he’s seen some landlords offer a few months of free rent to entice potential tenants.”

“Some are even willing to install new appliances like refrigerators, dishwashers and laundry units; and to build out closets to tenants’ specifications or add a fresh coat of paint. ‘Until companies start forcing employees to work in the office and people come back to Manhattan as their primary residence, we could see high inventory for a while,’ said Kowalczuk, adding, ‘If landlords want to stop the bleeding, they’ll have to hold their nose and jump in. At this point, something is better than nothing.'”

The New York Times. “So, how should renters seize this moment? ‘If you’re looking to get a deal, my biggest advice is to learn your market,’ said Eric Brown, an agent for Compass. Look at how long homes have been sitting empty. If many of them have gone unrented for weeks or months, then you’re in luck. ‘When tons of buildings have apartments available, then it’s a pretty safe bet that landlords are desperate for tenants and willing to negotiate,’ Mr. Brown said.”

“‘Most of the people who have left New York City this year tend to be younger renters — more transient people in their early 20s and 30s who have older family members they can go live with, or jobs where they can work remotely,’ Mr. Brown said. ‘These people are more likely to live in big, no-fee rental buildings that are owned by commercial landlords, and those buildings haven’t been doing well since the pandemic hit.'”

“‘Landlords would almost always rather give you a few months free than reduce your actual rent,’ Ms. said Elizabeth Donoghue, a tenants’ rights lawyer in Manhattan. Offering concessions — like a rent-free period — allows landlords to keep their so-called ‘face rent’ high and stable, which affects what they can charge in the future as well as how much their property is worth if they refinance it.”

“The good news is that many landlords are handing out concessions like candy these days. ‘In July, 30.4 percent of all rental listings had concessions, which is huge,’ said Cheryl Young, an economist at Zillow. ‘In Washington, D.C., it was 57.5 percent of listings.’ And 90 percent of the concessions she has seen have involved free rent. ‘So you may not see rent go down, but you will be able to get a few months off.'”

“‘There’s twice the number of rentals on the market in Manhattan this September compared to last year,’ said Nancy Wu, an economist at StreetEasy. ‘We’re not going to see that number of people moving back to New York all at once. If anything, more leases are expiring every month, more units are coming onto the market, and we’ll have an excess of inventory well into next year.'”

“While you’re waiting, Ms. Young recommended going month-to-month on your current lease, if you can. ‘That will allow you more time to look for something specific,’ she said. Then you can pounce when the price is right.”

From Bisnow. “Some major student housing markets are reporting higher than usual vacancy rates as fewer students see the need to live near campuses they will not be visiting that much. In Boston, about 13,000 of the market’s roughly 250,000 rental units were still available as of Sept. 1, according to data compiled by the Boston Globe, an unusually high number that reflects a lower influx of students than is usual at this time of year. Rents are also down.”

“The delinquency rate for CMBS loans associated with student housing reached a record high of 13.66% in July, much higher than the 2.19% rate for all other multifamily, Trepp reports (delinquent in this case meaning more than 30 days past due). In August, student housing delinquencies slipped to a still-elevated level of 13.06%.”

From Reuters. “The economic effects of the coronavirus are battering the U.S. commercial-backed securities market, raising the question of the value of hotels, malls, and other buildings that act as collateral for mortgages, according to a report in the Financial Times on Sunday. Wells Fargo estimates that U.S. properties that have gotten into trouble are being written down by 27% on average, according to the report. Declining appraisal values could hammer portfolio managers that have moved into the commercial mortgage-backed securities market in search for yield.”

From WVIR on Virginia. “As part of a fall speaker series, experts explored the current impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Charlottesville housing market. ‘Everyone sees the low mortgage rates and that seems like good news for folks looking to buy a home, but what we’re finding is the criteria for qualifying for mortgages has tightened up during coronavirus where lenders are looking for higher credit scores,’ Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Laura Sturtevant said.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “Emilio Bustamante was online teaching fifth graders when the constable knocked. The 47-year-old math and science teacher knew an eviction had been ordered, but on that Monday morning nearly a month ago, he thought he had more time. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey‘s executive order helped Pima County Constable Marge Cummings delay an eviction during the weeks it took Bustamante’s court case to reach its end, but the outcome was still the same: The Bustamante family became homeless during the pandemic because of lost income.”

“‘I was naive I guess,’ Bustamante said. ‘I felt safe, I felt like the order was protecting me and the constable was protecting me, which she was up to that point.'”

“But nothing worked in Bustamante’s favor: not the state’s moratorium, not the judge on his case, not the timing of a new federal moratorium and not the system for getting money to cash-strapped landlords. Bustamante says he applied for rental assistance in June and heard they were eligible in July. He was offered money three days after being evicted.”

“Of the Arizonans who are very likely to be evicted in the next two months, 91% said they were using credit cards or loans to meet their financial needs, 88% were using savings or selling assets, and 100% said they were borrowing money from relatives or friends, reports research professor Keith Gunnar Bentele.”

“Courtney Gilstrap LeVinus, president of the Arizona Multihousing Association, said many’mom-and-pop’ rental owners rely on rent for retirement income, and they haven’t been paid for more than half a year. ‘They’re frustrated,’ LeVinus said, ‘because it feels like they’ve been abandoned.'”

“The eviction of Bustamante was granted ‘in the interest of justice.’ Court documents provide no further explanation except that his request for reconsideration was denied because there were ‘no legal grounds.’ After the eviction judgment was handed down and his case continued, Bustamante wanted to file an appeal but couldn’t afford it after Justice Court Judge Susan Bacal, who presided over Bustamante’s case, set a bond of nearly $6,000, the amount he owed in back rent, restitution and late fees as part of the judgment.”

“The purpose of the bond is to ensure a landlord or property owner still gets reimbursed, but Bustamante, who tried to get the judge to waive the amount, said his landlord had already told the court he didn’t want the back rent or fees, he simply wanted the house empty so he could sell it.”

“When he was distraught in the weeks after his eviction, Bustamante would sometimes text Bonnie Bazata, program manager with the county’s Ending Poverty Now, whose agency had helped him. On one particularly bad night, Bustamante sent Bazata a message saying he felt like he’d failed his family. Bazata quickly set him straight. ‘She said to me, ‘No, Emilio, you did not fail your family. The system failed you.’”

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This Post Has 156 Comments

  1. ‘allows landlords to keep their so-called ‘face rent’ high and stable, which affects what they can charge in the future as well as how much their property is worth if they refinance it’

    Openly discussing mortgage fraud – check!

    1. “‘Landlords would almost always rather give you a few months free than reduce your actual rent,’ Ms. said Elizabeth Donoghue, a tenants’ rights lawyer in Manhattan. Offering concessions — like a rent-free period — allows landlords to keep their so-called ‘face rent’ high and stable, which affects what they can charge in the future as well as how much their property is worth if they refinance it.”

      I’m tired of this bullsh!t. That’s all I see going on. I’m not only not interested in renting a place that’s trying to disguise reality, I’m tired of a system that allows this.

        1. I agree that it’s our system forces landlords have to disguise reality. If you want a total rental market to adjust the rent by supply/demand, then you shouldn’t ask government intervention on how much a landlord can charge to his/her rental property. You can’t ask one thing and expect the other serves your best interest at the same time.

  2. ‘Young recommended going month-to-month on your current lease, if you can. ‘That will allow you more time to look for something specific,’ she said. Then you can pounce when the price is right’

    That’s the spirit!

    2. At every apartment I ever rented (last time being 2013), the month to month rent was ridiculously high compared to the rent when the lease was in effect, and deliberately so. As in 2x to 3x higher.

      The stated purpose, and the leasing office was usually upfront about it, was that they really didn’t want people renting month to month

      Granted, pretty much every apartment I ever had was part of a complex that had 100+ units and was ‘professionally managed’

      1. I have been on a month-to-month lease for over 15 years. My rent is below average by about 15% compared to a normal 1 year lease. That maybe because I am a good tenant. IMO opinion, it is an exaggeration to say month to month is 2x higher.

    1. Um, I live in Colorado Springs, and prices are most certainly not cratering. If anything they’re still rising as all the California equity locusts flood in.

      2. June 25, 2020

        “The COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant impact on the vacation real estate market. Facing volatility and uncertainty, property owners have been confronted by mass cancellations that have led many to make hard choices about whether to sell their properties or weather the storm. ‘If you are the owner of a short-term vacation rental, your rental income is likely to fall,’ said Jean Wheaton of The Wheaton Team which specializes in Monument and Colorado Springs Real Estate. ‘Many use income derived from vacation rental fees to pay off debt on their investment properties. If those proprieties remain vacant, their mortgage payments could be impacted.’”

        “‘As they struggle to fill vacancies, more and more Airbnb hosts are choosing to sell their properties,’ said Wheaton. ‘Any time you have a lot of similar inventory hitting the market, it’s going to create more options for buyers, resulting in more affordable prices.’”

        May 20, 2020

        “It’s usually the start of the busiest time of year for Airbnb hosts and short term rental owners, but with COVID-19 still an issue some owners are getting creative in order to stay afloat. Airbnb Host Elliott Orsillo said, ‘I think I was adequately scared in February.’ That’s how Orsillo felt when news of the coronavirus first started to spread. ‘We kind of saw the writing on the wall.’ He shared that a big wave of cancellations came through. ‘We’re running at probably…two-thirds both on a booking rate and on an occupancy rate.’”

        “Ryan Spradlin, a short term rental owner, said he’s experienced ‘somewhere in the range of $10,000 to $15,000 worth of cancellations.’ Orsillo said, ‘We’ve also flipped a lot of the units to more of a longer-term rental so whether it’s finding someone that’s looking for three, six, or twelve months fully furnished…that’s helped kind of create some stability there.’”

        “If you’re a host struggling right now Spradlin suggests checking out the Colorado Springs Short-Term Rental Alliance group on Facebook for advice and support.”

        April 4, 2020

        “If home seekers who’ve lost jobs can’t qualify for mortgages or if jittery buyers stay put in rental properties rather than taking on hundreds or even thousands of dollars in monthly house payments, the single-family market could see its first downturn since the Great Recession.”

        “‘March seemed to be still strong, but I have a feeling it’s coming,’ said Carrie Bartow, board president of the Housing & Building Association of Colorado Springs. ‘People are not going to be able to qualify for mortgages or the person that could have qualified in February for a mortgage may not be able to qualify for a mortgage in May because of the change in their employment situation.’”

        I could go on. The ebola came to Colorado Springs long ago.

        1. Is the AirBnB market in Colorado Springs completely separate from the owner occupied market? Or is there at least some chance that the cratering of AirBnB will spill over into owner occupied procing?

          My sister used to own a condo in The Springs before settling in the Governor’s Mansion area of Denver. It’s a beautiful location…

      3. Um, I live in Colorado Springs, and prices are most certainly not cratering.

        You might also be getting refugees from Denver. We had one move in next door 2 weeks ago. They said that they were fed up (had had it) with Denver and moved here to get away from the madness. Also, the lower prices had some appeal. I can’t say that I’m seeing west coast license plates here, but I would say that historically my little burg has been more of a magnet for people from Nebraska, Wyoming and the Dakotas than the west coast.

        1. Based on everything I’m seeing cross my screen, this year there’s a measurable outflow increase from the big cities and other dense, troubled areas (like silly valley) to anyplace perceived as more rural (doesn’t have to be actually rural, just more), more remote, safer (physical crime and covid), etc.

          Like the blind man trying to describe an elephant by touch, it all depends on if you’re holding his trunk or his balls…

    2. “Colorado Springs, CO Housing Prices Crater 26% As Mortgage Defaults And Foreclosures Spread Like The Black Plague”

      Stats from your Movoto link:
      item / today / 1 month ago / change:
      Active Inventory / 10 / 14 / -28%
      Median List Price / $217,500 / $297,450 / -26%
      % Distressed / 0% / 0%
      Median Days on Movoto / 6 / 31 / -80%
      Median Home Size / 1,022 / 1,684 / -39%
      Median $/Sqft / 200 / 163 / +22%

      – My comments:
      – I call BS!
      – This is median price, which is skewed toward high-end when high-end prices are rising, which they are. Median is a lagging indicator.
      – Inventory is falling.
      – Median DOM is falling (a lot!)
      – Median house size is falling, pushing up the median price.
      – Median price per sq. ft. is rising.
      – These stats indicate to me that prices are rising, which I would expect due to record low interest rates.
      – Those with good FICO scores are moving out of major MSAs, which is killing the CRE market, but boosting the RRE market. Pulling demand forward.
      – Nothing changes in RRE until the second wave of layoffs, when upper-tier/white collar workers get pink slips, and let’s not forget all of those mortgages in forbearance. This is coming, IMHO, but not until after the Nov. 3rd elections.

      Additional info.:
      from http://www.realtor.com today:
      Colorado Springs, CO
      Total listings: 2364
      Price Reduced listing: 212
      % price reduced = 9%

      – Price reduced is still a relatively small percentage of the overall market. Until this gets into the mid-teens, and higher, it’s still a buyer’s market, IMHO.

      – Please. There’s already enough RE shilling by the REIC/UHS complex.

      “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

  4. ‘Wells Fargo estimates that U.S. properties that have gotten into trouble are being written down by 27% on average’

    Is that a lot? How could anyone deny there was a CRE bubble and that it has collapsed?

  5. “They staged the homes, they created websites with custom domain names, videos and 3D digital tours, and they sent out flyers and emails to get people’s attention. ‘We did everything under the planet that’s humanly possible,’ he said.”

    Gimmicks won’t sell your overpriced real estate. You price it to sell, and it’ll sell. Now get to sawin’ and slashin’, greedhead.

    1. Once again, the media does it’s “lookie over there, Tahoe is red-hotcakes” thing. Nobody cares about Tahoe REIC.

      1. When you take local jobs into consideration, not the personal household wealth of Tahoe speculators like Larry Ellison, you would be hard-pressed to find a more overpriced and out-of-whack system and real estate market than that of the Tahoe area. It’s literally a bunch of peons living in their cars and shacking up 6 people to a 2 bedroom while a bunch of rich aszholes build grotesque eyesores as a testament to their wealth.

        1. And I should also mention that the entire economy is dependent upon real estate. Once a bust sets in, the place is a ghost town.

  6. Offering concessions — like a rent-free period — allows landlords to keep their so-called ‘face rent’ high and stable, which affects what they can charge in the future as well as how much their property is worth if they refinance it.”

    Peddle your scams elsewhere, landlords. You want me as a tenant? Then lower the rent.

    2. All the photos in this article look like normal people who can hold a job and pay their bills on time.

      Contrast that with the endless scroll of mugshots on Andy Ngo’s Twitter of degenerates who may as well have “do not hire” printed on their foreheads.

      “They’re not sending their best”

      1. Yeah, I remember seeing a car with a Trump sticker in fall 2016 and I thought, “this person is brave.” I immediately caught myself and wondered what is it about these violent people who attack at the drop of a hat?

        Last night I was watching a BLM protest near the Sunset Strip. It was at night and they were driving through a well-to-do neighborhood making a huge racket. What’s the point of that? To create fear in peoples homes? The people that live there are probably Democrats, so is the intention to create fear a race thing?

        Recently I posted a video of the former Seattle Times reporter who would cover antifa every year on May day. Of course they had to hide the appearance of being reporters to keep from being attacked. She pointed out these thugs would vandalize high end stores, and were openly anti-capitalism. This stuff isn’t normal behavior. We’re being bombarded with the idea that normal people who express a political opinion are crazy, when it’s plain who the nutjobs are.

        1. The people that live there are probably Democrats, so is the intention to create fear a race thing?

          It’s pretty clear that the thugs want to grab the reins of power, and have no intention of sharing it it legacy white liberals, and are letting them know,

          1. It’s pretty clear that the thugs want to grab the reins of power, and have no intention of sharing it it legacy white liberals, and are letting them know

            Don’t confuse the monkey with the organ grinder. Globalist oligarchs are using “pass-through” foundations to funnel huge sums to all of these radical-left subversive groups. Until these primary donors and their accomplices at organizations like the Tides Foundation and Thousand Currents are held criminally and financially liable for the destruction wreaked by their Antifa-BLM minions, the criminal violence is going to continue unabated.

            https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/tides-foundation/

          3. From the comments: “This is the product of years of soy, veganism, broken homes, common core curriculum, meth, chemtrails, flouride, and social engineering. All part of a big plan.”

          4. Don’t confuse the monkey with the organ grinder.

            FWIW, the ANC runs South Africa. I’m sure they ultimately answer to the globalists, who prop up their failed economy, but at the end of the day its the ANC who’s in charge of the day to day stuff.

        2. “The people that live there are probably Democrats, so is the intention to create fear a race thing?”

          ROBERT KRAYCHIK
          26 Sep 2020

          Ibram X. Kendi, director of Boston University’s Center for Antiracist Research, wrote on Saturday that white people who adopt black children may be “racist,” joining a growing group of Democrats and leftists commenting on Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Haitian son and daughter.

          LEFTIST HISTORIAN: AMY CONEY BARRETT IS A “WHITE COLONIZER” FOR ADOPTING BLACK CHILDREN

          Chris Menahan | Information Liberation –
          SEPTEMBER 27, 2020

          Race hustler Ibram X Kendi (born Henry Rogers), who recently got a $10 million grant from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, on Saturday attacked Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett as a “white colonizer” for adopting two Haitian children.

          Kendi is paid by fabulously wealthy white people to tell moderately wealthy white people why middle class and poor white people are the world’s top oppressors — as opposed to folks like Jeff Bezos who promotes Kendi’s book on the front page of Amazon and Jeffrey Goldberg who prints Kendi’s columns in The Atlantic.

          1. The tribe and their pet orcs, business as usual. It must burn them up that Barrett isnt harvesting Haitians for adrenochrome. That and trafficking were the the main impetus for the Clinton Global Initiative – just look at who was on the Board of Directors.

          2. “white people who adopt black children may be “racist,” joining a growing group of Democrats and leftists commenting on Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Haitian son and daughter.”

            I am not sure that this will work out the way they hope it will.

          4. Coming soon to the U.S. of A.

            Financial Times
            Eurozone economy
            Eurozone deflation will persist in coming months, Lagarde warns
            Euro’s rise is one of biggest factors holding down bloc’s prices, ECB president says
            European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde, pictured in March this year.
            Christine Lagarde, ECB president, said headline annual inflation was ‘expected to remain negative over the coming months’
            © Reuters
            Valentina Romei in London yesterday
            Be the first to know about every new Coronavirus story

            The eurozone is expected to remain in deflation over the coming months, partly because of the recent appreciation of the euro, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has warned.

            Headline annual inflation is “expected to remain negative over the coming months” after slipping into deflation in August for the first time in four years, Ms Lagarde told the European Parliament’s committee on economic and monetary affairs on Monday.

            She cited “earlier declines in energy prices, a stronger euro, and a temporary reduction in the value added tax rate in Germany” as the main drivers for the sustained fall in prices.
            …

          5. “white people who adopt black children may be “racist,”

            But when Angelina Jolie, Madonna, Charlize Theron and Sandra Bullock do it, they’re humanitarians.

        3. George Soros is paying big money to give the appearance of mass chaos before the election. It’s all just a game of chess – or monopoly – between the world’s billionaires. They still get together and laugh about stuff, just like both parties in Congress when they meet at the bar. The people of the country are being played for fools.

    3. That’s a lot of Trump schwag. Flags, signs, T-shirts, masks…
      On the lib side I’m only seeing the small yard signs.

      1. It’s all the more impressive how many Trump signs, MAGA hats, etc. you see publicly displayed considering that to do so is to invite vandalism and physical attack by unhinged leftists.

  9. “The economic effects of the coronavirus are battering the U.S. commercial-backed securities market, raising the question of the value of hotels, malls, and other buildings that act as collateral for mortgages, according to a report in the Financial Times on Sunday.

    Raising the question, indeed. We’ve seen this movie before and know how it ends. Only this time around, 11 years of Fed “emergency measures” mean the crash, when it comes, is going to be orders of magnitude worse.

  10. The title to the last link:

    Tucson faces potential wave of homelessness, foreclosures as pandemic drags on

    ‘The eviction of Bustamante was granted ‘in the interest of justice.’ Court documents provide no further explanation except that his request for reconsideration was denied because there were ‘no legal grounds.’

    You’ll see more of this, especially where it’s not a socialist sh$t-hole.

  11. ‘In Boston, about 13,000 of the market’s roughly 250,000 rental units were still available as of Sept. 1’

    With rentals being valued by NOI, what is the NOI on these 13,000 units?

    1. The local coin shop has as many platinum eagles as I want. They never order it because it’s not a big seller. They only buy it from people who want to sell it.

          2. A soldier responding to the silence when Jane “communist” Fonda appeared on stage in hot pants during a USO show replied, “It’s hard to clap with one hand.”

  18. ‘We did everything under the planet that’s humanly possible,’

    I’d bet my bottom dollar they didn’t try reducing the asking price to current market value in order to attract offers.

      1. They lied. Certainly it is “humanly possible” to cut the price 90% and likely they would have found a cash buyer quickly.

        1. No, you see a 90% price cut is un-possible. I was assured of this by an REIC troll who briefly infested the HBB, who assured all and sundry that shack prices could never drop by 50%. So you see, that’s the floor on how far the market can fall.

          Oh, wait…it’s already exceeded that multiple times.

          Oh dear…but…but…that means more crater still to come.

        2. Exactly! It’s ridiculous how MSM writers publish this kind of crap without ever bothering to point out the obvious.

          1. What’s ridiculous is the number of people who can see how ridiculous the news is in many topics, yet believe every breathless orange man bad report.

          2. I had a great laugh back when Trump, with a straight poker face said he is the law, and what ever he says is the law. The NYT and WP columnists quickly weighed-in with wordy pieces, citing official references, completely sideswiped by the sarcasm; they never realized it!

  19. “Rents in Washington, D.C., Chicago, Austin, Houston, and Denver have also dropped since last year.”

    Where are all our posters who claim D.C. rents always go up?

        1. It was Rent will always go up, and something about the absolute power of landlords to do so. It’s the essential ingredient in getting rich through mortgage debt, according to the NYT spreadsheet.

          1. Our landlord kindly agreed to drop our rent to 10% below the Zrent Estimate when we explained that we were also looking into renting two other nearby places. I guess we could be accused of using the oldest $tealtor’$ negotiating tactic in the book (“there are other offers”) to our advantage, except in this case it was true.

        2. “Our landlord kindly agreed to drop our rent to 10% below the Zrent Estimate”

          Good for you Professor.

          How much lower is that from what you were paying?

        1. Dont mistake stubbornness for intestinal fortitude. More often than not, stubbornness extracts a heavy price.

    2. I’m in Chicago and outside of the luxury market I have not found any drop in rents in the market at all. In fact the medium and lower markets are going up. Which makes sense as the luxury renters are moving down to upscale and the upscale down to medium priced rentals

      1. Something similar happened in the SF Bay Area in the early 2000s, in the runup to the ginormous cratering of 2007-2009. It reminds me of how a series of earthquakes and small eruptions typically precede a major volcanic explosion.

        1. After the dot-bomb crash, regular rents (not just luxury) did crater, on the order of 30% (in my case). House prices started going down a bit in 2001/2002, but before they could fully correct were rescued by Greenspan’s ZIRP and the start of the housing bubble.

  21. The commercial real estate industry press on Trump: maybe he really hasn’t made any money for decades. Trump Tower and a couple of office buildings account for most of his positive cash flow, and he’s been hocking Trump Tower.

    https://commercialobserver.com/2020/09/trump-tower-mortgage-due-finances/

    “It also highlights in a particularly stark way something that’s long been known: That Trump’s 37-year-old Trump Tower—his first true commercial real estate trophy outside of his father Fred Trump Sr.‘s shadow—remains his biggest success in the industry. As the Times reported, the 58-story mixed-use tower at 725 Fifth Avenue has delivered more than $20 million in profits annually—or $336.3 million—since 2000, which “has done much to help keep him afloat,” the newspaper said of Trump.”

    Long been known in New York. That home-run, which established his reputation, plus inheritance pretty much accounts for anything positive he has done, net.

    Since then he’s proven to be good at only one thing — stiffing creditors by negotiating bankruptcies. I guess we had to hope that’s a skill that would come in handy for the United States as a whole. He did say as much in his prior campaign.

      1. When Trump built it he was bucking the trend, not building it. In 1983, when I graduated college, NYC was still pretty down and out. That’s how he was able to get property on 5th Avenue and get the building built.

        Stuff he built later, following the trend, didn’t do as well.

        In 1986, as a newlywed, I rented a very small ground floor one-bedroom apartment in a stable but unfashionable Brooklyn neighborhood for $1,200 in today’s dollars. It was already clear, that year, that NYC was on the way back up.

        There are ZERO apartments at that price or lower on Zillow right now in Manhattan, Brooklyn or the Bronx, and just a couple far out in Queens. It shows how far things might need to go.

      2. Never underestimate the power of a paid-off house!

        After reviewing our plans with Mrs Spiffy (which we do quarterly), Casa Spiffy will most likely be paid off around 2026-27, along with 5 kiddos launched through college and into the world by 2025. Contingencies have been given consideration for things going both worse than expected and better than expected.

        The biggest wild-card will be if we lose one or more parents during that time frame and have to move the other in with us to look after. But we’re setup to handle that if need be.

        I have to admit there’s more than a touch of ‘not really caring exactly how much the world burns, just worried about protecting ourselves’ in all of this. Housing security is a foundation for that.

        1. Yes, but for that security location matters…the security of a paid off house in, say, downtown Minneapolis or Seattle isn’t the same as for Casa Spiffy

          1. The security of the location of our secret lair was one of the bigger factors for it in making the decision to purchase.

            You’re absolutely right though in that there are a lot of locations that look to be even more vulnerable going forward.

      3. “underestimate the power of a paid-off house”

        LOL@ why would I overpay for a used house in the Denver metro when I can rent for less than half the cost of buying?

        I’m buying acreage in Southern Colorado, not a city lot in my current neighborhood, acreage, and unlike you debt donkey degenerate loanowners I’ll be paying for it with cash.

        1. Not to mention the fact that when the sounds, sights and sometimes smells coming from the neighbor’s house become too annoying to put up with anymore, you just give your 30 days notice and blow that popsicle stand. As a loanowner, you’re stuck inside a mental and physical prison.

      4. I’d rather rent while maintaining a positive net worth through a flexible portfolio of investments, rather than face the prospect of underwaterness if housing dips thirty percent over the next few years, the way CRE already has.

        1. There’s really no wrong answer if you know and understand how your choice is a net positive you and your specific situation.

          Sometimes, like I did 18 years ago, you have to learn the hard way.

          People buying because “it’s a good investment”, “everyone else is doing it”, or “because the bank says we can afford it” are settings themselves up for potentially (usually) a jumbo sized serving of regret.

          1. Buying at the top of the biggest housing bubble in history may have some negative long term financial effects, no matter what everyone says.

          4. *sigh* we have had this discussion. You are 15+ years ahead of me. 15 years from now I will be in the same position as you, with a paid-off house.

  23. I have two questions.

    1 Did Trump campaign funds pay for this chick’s boob job?

    2 Did the cops body slam this dude because he’s black?

    FOOTAGE: POLICE BODY-SLAM BRAD PARSCALE DURING ARREST

    Video shows police tackle former Trump campaign manager

    FLPD Releases Video of September 27th Baker Act Incident

    Sep 28, 2020

    https://youtu.be/CjAqS35D8ZU

    1. After watching the video again from the very beginning I have a third question.

      3 Did this chick drop her cover-up towel down below her rack to make sure the cops were on her side or because she found one she liked?

    2. Dude might get a little cash from an excessive force lawsuit. If he does I hope the money doesnt go to more silicon body parts for thots. Even with all that work, shes pretty fugly.

      2. Seemed like unnecessary roughness. Cops could be more gentle in dealing with people who are clearly having a mental health crisis but who don’t pose a threat.

    3. This whole thing is a little suspect. It’s basically her word and they take the guy down. Yeah, he seems a bit inebriated and has a beer in his hand, but what did he do to deserve that level of force?

      1. This whole thing is a little suspect.

        Agreed and Broward County is a cesspool of Democrat corruption.

  25. As soon as Sweden said they weren’t going to lock down, i posted here that they would emerge more intact than any other country. So far it appears to have been a good prediction.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/7bX3ntyIyVbn/
    (about 8 minutes)

    The politicos have killed many people with their reaction to the virus and their hiding how well the HCQ treatment really worked. They should at least let us use Ivermectin now before we decide to string them all up from lampposts. Cuomo should be tried for murder for what he did to those nursing home residents. How the hell does he sleep at night? (He probably sleeps fine since there’s little doubt he’s a sociopath.)

    2. Is there any news of Ivemectin? Treatment news has been very quiet lately. I think the Ivermectin folks are staying quiet and being careful to dot every I and cross every T, hoping to avoid what happened to HCQ.

      1. Yes, i saw some news posted as late as yesterday. I didn’t take much note of it because as far as i’m concerned, most of the dying is just about over. The kid in the video seems to be following the virus more than i do these days.

        Still, from what i remember, the Ivermectin news was very good. As in some people calling the new treatment an actual cure. It also appears to be very, very safe to use.

        1. Thank you for the info. Even if the dying is mostly over, we still have a lot of people with ugly symptoms lasting 2-3 weeks, up to 4 months with the long-haulers. Many people can’t afford to be in quarantine for that long, not to mention potential suffering. Last I read, Ivermectin had people out and about in 5-6 days.

          If Ivermectin can prevent long-haul symptoms, that’s a massive game changer. All we need now is 15-minute testing, with Ivermectin and doxycycline handed out right at point of testing. None of this call-your-doctor-and-go-to-the-pharmacy stuff. C-mon Trump.. you know want to make this an October surprise, I know you do.

          2. Here are a couple things from August:

            “We Know it’s Curable; It’s Easier than Treating the Flu” — Professor Thomas Borody
            Posted on August 15, 2020

            Australian radio host Luke Bona interviewed this August 12 Professor Thomas Borody, from the Centre for Digestive Diseases in Sydney, Australia, about Ivermectin-based therapies for COVID-19.

            The interview is short and to the point, and should be of interest to everyone in the world.

            Based on existing research and his analysis of therapeutic results using Ivermectin in combination with 2 other widely available generic drugs – Doxycycline and Zinc -, he asserts that COVID-19 is now curable and even easier to treat than the flu.

            Here are some excerpts.

            “We came up with a treatment that is simple, safe, and can get rid of the coronavirus in almost all patients treated within 6 to 10 days.”

            “It can treat and get rid, within 6 to 10 days, of the coronavirus”

            “It is an easy, very easy virus to cure, when you combine the dosage we have described, because it inhibits the growth of the bug. It just goes away, and you no longer can find it in an infected person.”

            ===

            There’s a little more i’ll try to put up, if i can.

          3. Q: “I understand there are clinical trials of this ivermectin therapy going on in 32 countries”

            “The important ones have already been done. The drugs that we use are all approved by the TGA and the FDA. So tomorrow you can write a script for it, because they are approved for other reasons.” (note: TGA stands for Therapeutic Goods Administration)

            “The trials that I know of … have been done in places where there are a lot of coronavirus patients…”

            “In Bangladesh, 60 out of 60 were cured.“

            “That’s not easy to believe, because it’s just too good too be true.”

            “In China, they compared coronavirus treatment with either ivermectin mixed, or hydroxychloroquine mixed.”

            “Hydroxychloroquine is not a bad drug when you combine it with azithromycin. They got 96.3% cure”

            “But with ivermectin, it was 100%.”

  26. “Several businesses reached out to the Problem Solvers, sharing surveillance footage of violent crimes in the area, and say the growing crowds of people is having a massive impact on businesses there, on top of the cripple factors of the coronavirus pandemic.

    “The drug dealers that are moving into the neighborhood, they’re threatening people, there has been gun violence,” Peter Katz said. “Tenants and residents are not comfortable in their neighborhood anymore.”

    Katz manages a property along Broadway and Curtis as well. He says the crowds have gotten so bad that employees no longer feel safe.

    “Our tenants that try to go into the business have been spit on, they’re told they’re going to be assaulted. They just leave, they just can’t get in,” Katz said. “Right across the street you have a for lease sign and there’s no way anyone is gonna come to the neighborhood, look at that building, see what’s going on here and lease it.”

    https://kdvr.com/news/five-points-businesses-see-less-foot-traffic-as-homeless-crisis-grows/

    1. Twofer Tuesday — Denver is a sh*thole edition:

      “A homeless camp or a bicycle chop shop? In Denver, they can certainly at least appear to be one and the same. So many bikes have been stolen across the city, some people — encouraged on social media — are now going from camp to camp looking for their property.

      “I would rather have my car stolen than this,” said Carter Haun, pointing to his custom mountain bike. “It would be easier to get another car.”

      Less than three weeks after Haun moved into his downtown Denver apartment, his bicycle was stolen from his car, and he was determined to find it.

      After days of looking, he finally saw a man pushing his bike near the camp at 13th Avenue and Logan Street.

      “I walked up to him and said, ‘Hey, are you selling bikes?’ He said, ‘Yeah, I’m selling bikes.’ And I said, ‘I want to buy that one,’ and pointed at mine,” Haun said.

      Contact Denver7 learned his story is not unique. Leah Bilquist posted photos after she found her bike at the camp near Morey Middle School.

      “I think attention needs to be drawn to the homeless situation and how awful it is becoming to live in Downtown Denver,” she said.

      https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/contact-denver7/cyclists-searching-for-stolen-bikes-in-denvers-homeless-camps

      1. After days of looking, he finally saw a man pushing his bike near the camp at 13th Avenue and Logan Street.

        “I walked up to him and said, ‘Hey, are you selling bikes?’ He said, ‘Yeah, I’m selling bikes.’ And I said, ‘I want to buy that one,’ and pointed at mine,” Haun said.

        Reminds me of a time back in the late 1980s when I went to a LA Kings hockey game at the Forum. There was a very large, scary looking black man pushing a shopping cart full of car batteries around outside. He was selling them back to the people he had stolen them from.

      2. When you mention Denver is a sh*thole I was thinking that sounds like California though so that City must be running by Democratic Party. So I google it and I was right 😄

    2. In Reinventing Collapse, Dmitry Orlov predicted the collapse of the U.S. would see an army of displaced persons from the suburbs ending up on the street in the cities.

      1. Here’s some info …

        Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
        by Dmitry Orlov
        3.99 · Rating details · 563 ratings · 73 reviews
        In the waning days of the American empire, we find ourselves mired in political crisis, with our foreign policy coming under sharp criticism and our economy in steep decline. These trends mirror the experience of the Soviet Union in the early 1980s. Reinventing Collapse examines the circumstances of the demise of the Soviet superpower and offers clear insights into how we might prepare for coming events.

        Rather than focusing on doom and gloom, Reinventing Collapse suggests that there is room for optimism if we focus our efforts on personal and cultural transformation. With characteristic dry humor, Dmitry Orlov identifies three progressive stages of response to the looming crisis:

        Mitigation—alleviating the impact of the coming upheaval Adaptation—adjusting to the reality of changed conditions Opportunity—flourishing after the collapse He argues that by examining maladaptive parts of our common cultural baggage, we can survive, thrive, and discover more meaningful and fulfilling lives, in spite of steadily deteriorating circumstances.

        This challenging yet inspiring work is a must-read for anyone concerned about energy, geopolitics, international relations, and life in a post-Peak Oil world.

        Dmitry Orlov was born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States at the age of twelve. He was an eyewitness to the Soviet collapse over several extended visits to his Russian homeland between the late eighties and mid-nineties. He is an engineer and a leading Peak Oil theorist whose writing is featured on such sites as http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and http://www.powerswitch.org.uk. (less)

        Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects by Dmitry Orlov
        https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2367427.Reinventing_Collapse

    1. Yeah, about a thousand tenants per state. In any recession, that’s called “Tuesday.” Oh, and the article says

      It’s not clear from the data whether tenants of the corporate landlords presented the declaration necessary to prevent eviction for non-payment of rent or whether they qualified for protection at all.

      Yeah, you can’t thumb your nose at the LL anymore.

  28. The Donald: $400 million in debt.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/report-that-trump-is-400-million-in-debt-raises-national-security-concerns-01601332900?cx_testId=50&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=1&mod=home-page-cx#cxrecs_s

    And people wonder how someone like him could have been elected President. I said it years ago — he is THE MAN of his generation.

    Can you imagine all the “family members” gathering around after he is gone, after having put up with him abusing them for the inheritance, only to find out he has spent everything on himself and left them with a massive debt instead?

    Collectively, that is exactly what his generation (and Biden’s generation) is going to do to all of us. Do you think generational equity, and the diminished circumstances of later-born generations as a result of self-dealing by Generation Greed, will be discussed in those debates? Hell no! Just more tribalism for the suckers.

      2. My 2016 vote was motivated by hatred of Hillary.

        My 2020 vote is motivated by hatred of Real Journalists.

        Joe Biden died months ago. His stunt double has already memorized all the answers to tonight’s debate questions, he just needs to work on perfecting the body language and tone of the late Vice President.

    2. Somebody forgot to get the pre-debate talking points to this left wing bozo

      “The president has a fair amount of leverage—adding up to a roughly $1.13 billion—but not enough to drag his net worth below a billion dollars.”

      He went with the $750 paid income tax BS.

      Yes, Donald Trump Is Still A Billionaire. That Makes His $750 Tax Payment Even More Scandalous

      Sep 28, 2020,10:10am EDT

      Dan AlexanderForbes Staff
      Policy
      Senior editor at Forbes, covering Donald Trump’s business.

      “Is Donald Trump really a billionaire?” everyone seemed to be asking Sunday night, after the New York Times dropped a bombshell report about the president’s taxes, which detailed big losses in some years and limited income in others. The answer: Yes, he is indeed.

      In fact, Trump is a multibillionaire, worth $2.5 billion, by our count. His portfolio, which includes commercial buildings, golf properties and branding businesses, is worth an estimated $3.66 billion before debt. The president has a fair amount of leverage—adding up to a roughly $1.13 billion—but not enough to drag his net worth below a billion dollars.

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2020/09/28/yes-donald-trump-is-still-a-billionaire-that-makes-his-750-tax-payment-even-more-scandalous/

    3. “Report that Trump is $400 million in debt raises national security concerns”

      But this didn’t?

      Cash Flowed to Clinton Foundation Amid Russian Uranium Deal

      By Jo Becker and Mike McIntire
      April 23, 2015

      https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html

      Senate Report Details Hunter Biden’s Extensive Foreign Business Dealings — and Obama Officials’ Efforts to Ignore Them

      By JACK CROWE
      September 23, 2020 7:09 AM

      In the course of his globe-trotting business career, Hunter Biden racked up more than $4 million in “questionable financial transactions” with well-connected foreigners. He partnered with Chinese businessmen connected to the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army, he took cash from the wife of the corrupt former mayor of Moscow, and he sent funds to Ukrainian and Russian nationals living in the U.S. that are “linked to what ‘appears to be an Eastern European prostitution or human trafficking ring,’” according to the report.

      But it was only Hunter’s work for Burisma that caught the attention of Obama administration State Department officials, who said the role created “counterintelligence and extortion concerns.”

      https://www.nationalreview.com/news/senate-report-details-hunter-bidens-extensive-foreign-business-dealings-and-obama-officials-efforts-to-distance-themselves-from-it/

      Obama repays donors in tax dollars
      By REINCE PRIEBUS 07/27/2012 04:42 AM EDT

      President Barack Obama, since taking officer, has showered his donors and allies with billions in federal dollars. A steady stream of grants and loans flows from the administration to Obama’s political cronies. And taxpayers foot the bill.

      Crony capitalism is common practice in the Obama administration. Solyndra was backed by an Obama donor and fundraiser and then received a half-billion dollar taxpayer loan. The company went bankrupt, had to lay off 1,800 workers and shut its doors.

      Obama treats taxpayer money as his personal piggy bank — using government checks as multimillion-dollar thank you notes to campaign donors. Taxpayers get nothing in return. Factories close. Jobs go overseas. The unemployment rate remains painfully high. Government debt stands at over $15.8 trillion.

      https://www.politico.com/story/2012/07/obama-repays-donors-in-tax-dollars-079042

    4. and left them

      Generation suck-up?

      The NYT didn’t explain what loophole the President is using to avoid paying taxes on his massive salary as POTUS.

    1. Just as I pointed out the other day – debt has been expanding while the velocity of money has been crashing. It’s a winner takes all world, and we’re near the end game.

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