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It’s Coming, It’s Just A Question Of How Bad Is It Going To Be

Two reports from the Wall Street Journal. “Even with recent gains, more jobs have been lost—nearly 11 million—than were cut in the wake of the 2007-09 recession, when 8.7 million were eliminated. Economic production, despite a sharp bounce-back in the third quarter, still resembles the depths of the 2008-2009 recession, at roughly 95% of where it stood going into the crisis, said Gregory Daco, Oxford Economics’ chief U.S. economist. ‘Not many things are viable if they’re just at [95%] of the revenue they usually have,’ he said, and if they are, ‘they’re usually viable with lower input costs—reduced workforces.'”

“Take the intersection of 42nd Street and Avenue of the Americas in midtown Manhattan, said Mitchell Moss, a professor at New York University. ‘At 6:30 p.m., you used to have 100 guys delivering dinner to those working late,’ he said. ‘We have no visitors and few workers. Until we get one or the other back, it’s going to be a ghost town.'”

“Recent, high-profile foreclosure proceedings include Chicago’s Palmer House Hilton hotel and a portfolio of luxury apartment developments in New York City. Behind the scenes, more lenders are starting negotiations to take over properties from their borrowers, said Jay Neveloff, a partner at law firm Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel LLP.”

“Across the U.S., 278 properties backing securitized mortgages were in foreclosure as of last week, according to Trepp, and at least 80 of them had financial problems related to Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. Real-estate attorneys and executives say they expect the number of foreclosures to increase. ‘It’s coming,’ said Jay Olshonsky, chief executive of real-estate-services firm NAI Global. ‘It’s just a question of how bad is it going to be.'”

“He expects foreclosures in commercial real estate caused by the pandemic to be far worse than what happened during and after the 2007-2009 recession, when properties backing tens of billions of dollars in commercial mortgages ended up in foreclosure. ‘We’ve never had a situation where people weren’t paying their rent on their apartments, like we have now,’ Mr. Olshonsky said.”

From Honolulu Civil Beat. “It stands to reason that with a major part of Hawaii’s economy shut down because of COVID-19 that Hawaii’s notoriously tight rental housing market would suffer. The vacancy rate for residential properties has more than doubled compared with pre-COVID levels, to almost 9.2% in August from 3.9% before the crisis, UH Professor Philip Garboden reported.”

“About half of the August housing turnover was instigated by the crisis, and not at the end of the lease. And while about half of the landlords and property managers surveyed said they were staying profitable, many were not. ‘Troublingly, 40% said they were struggling, and 10% note that they (or the owners) are considering selling,’ UHERO reported. The downside of all of this, the report said, is that some residential landlords might decide renting properties in Hawaii isn’t the lucrative business it once was.”

From WKRN on Tennessee. “Nationwide, rents have fallen by 1.4% over the past year but in Nashville it’s even worse, with rents declining sharply. Landlords are working with struggling tenants in Nashville. Developer Tony Giarratana is offering an ‘October surprise’ to new tenants of the 505 tower downtown – no rent until January. This comes after short-term rental company Stay Alfred pulled out of its 140 units in the 505 due to COVID-19 related hardships a few months ago.”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “In both Tampa and St. Petersburg, business owners, patrons and analysts alike are wondering whether the face of the region’s downtown areas will be forever changed by the coronavirus pandemic. In Downtown St. Petersburg, asking rents for multifamily apartment buildings were down in early September by about 2.5 percent compared to before the pandemic, which means that new tenants in the area could get a unit last month for about the same prices as mid-2018, according to numbers from CoStar Group.”

“It’s the first time in about six years that this area has seen a prolonged dip in asking rents, said Brian Alford, CoStar’s director of market analytics for Florida, who pointed to the large increase in new apartments right before the coronavirus took hold as a major culprit. There’s also been a major increase in so-called ‘concessions,’ like apartments offering months of free rent as an inducement to sign a lease.”

“Restaurateur Roger Perry has opened two downtown St. Petersburg restaurants since 2018. He relies more on downtown residents than workers, but said the lockdown still opened his eyes. ‘It was like Chernobyl. There was nobody on the streets,’ he said of the pandemic’s first few weeks. ‘All of the people who have second homes there went back home to be closer to their doctors. The hotels are closed, so we’re not getting any tourists. The offices are closed. People are working from home. So in a downtown business that relies on the people that live and work there, there was just nobody.'”

“The lesson Perry took away: ‘I would be worried if I owned commercial real estate downtown.'”

The Denver Channel in Colorado. “COVID-19 is impacting industries all throughout our country, and the real estate market is seeing its share of ups and downs. For first time home buyer Alex Saiz Saiz, the upswing after lockdown meant finding the perfect bachelor pad. ‘(The pandemic) almost kind of helped me, because it did bring the prices lower and the interest rates dropped,’ Saiz said. ‘It was kind of an opportunity that I took advantage of. It was a total no-brainer.'”

“For now, the roller coaster ride that is 2020 will continue. Although the future looks promising, this year has taught us all that anything can happen. ‘If we don’t level out a little bit, I think we could be heading toward a bubble burst,’ realtor Amy Asher said cautiously.”

The Mercury News in California. “Don and Laura Zapata grew up in San Francisco and, until August 31, lived their entire lives there. The Zapatas joined a procession from San Francisco this summer that has sent rents plummeting, home inventory soaring and chilled home and condo prices in what remains the most expensive city in the nation. The number of homes for sale in San Francisco nearly doubled during that time, and list prices in the city dropped about 5 percent, tilting ever-so-slightly toward a buyer’s market.”

“‘It’s not a mass sell-off. You’re not getting fire-sale prices,’ said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker. ‘I don’t see anything that says San Francisco is going to be a ghost town anytime soon.'”

“Property crime, drug use and a growing homeless population are central concerns for many leaving the pandemic-struck city. In a January survey conducted for the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and this news organization, 96 percent of San Francisco residents said homelessness was the most serious problem facing their community. In tech-popular neighborhoods downtown, Mission Bay and SoMa have seen condo listings roughly triple from the previous summer, according to San Francisco Redfin agent Gabrielle Bunker.”

“Marc Dickow, president of the San Francisco Association of Realtors, said the growing inventory of condos has been driven by investors who have seen renters leaving the city as work-from-home routines have stretched into months. Strong renter protections and a softening market have made the decision easier for many investors, he said. ‘They were not their homes anyway, so they’re putting them on the market,’ he said. Generally, SoMa and South Beach have seen the most for-sale listings, he said.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “If you’re planning to bid on Patrick Nesbitt’s sprawling estate in Montecito, you better bring a few million. The 20-acre spread, once listed at $65 million, will be auctioned off to the highest bidder with no reserve on Nov. 16-19. Nesbitt has been shopping the property around since 2016. Records show he trimmed the asking price to $55 million earlier this year.”

From Senior Housing News. “Covid-19 has placed significant strains on the margins of senior living providers, and pandemic-related costs will continue to hit the industry as 2020 draws to a close. Although Covid-19 has disrupted financial operations for months, the specific impact can now be quantified, thanks in part to data from HealthTrust that the firm’s COO and Partner Colleen Blumenthal presented during the webinar. Notably, margins throughout the pandemic average around 21%, closer to skilled nursing facilities, while net operating income losses averaged around 30%.”

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This Post Has 162 Comments

  1. ‘It’s not a mass sell-off. You’re not getting fire-sale prices…I don’t see anything that says San Francisco is going to be a ghost town anytime soon’

    Yer a shack flipper with yer head up yer a$$ Jeff.

    1. ‘It’s not a mass sell-off. You’re not getting fire-sale prices…I don’t see anything that says San Francisco is going to be a ghost town anytime soon’ – said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker

      – No conflict of interest here!
      – Must support the “real estate always goes up!” narrative.

      “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” – Joseph Goebbels

      “A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.” – Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize-winning economist and psychologist

      – BTW, I recently saw that rents were down over 20% in SF, CA. That seems like it’s moving toward a serious correction to me.

      – The five stages of grief are:
      denial – Jeff is here and just getting started…
      anger
      bargaining
      depression
      acceptance

      “Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.” – Mark Twain

      “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” – George Orwell

    3. “You’re not getting fire-sale prices…I don’t see anything that says San Francisco is going to be a ghost town anytime soon.”

      High prices for empty real estate is the only thing that could make San Francisco a ghost town. Other than an earthquake, of course.

    1. But, like you said, “hotcakes.” And everybody is buying RVs, boats, trucks, cars, etc.

      I had an interesting conversation the other day with a woman who works in vocational rehab and helps people with unemployment, etc. She told me of a young guy who went out and bought a new truck and some other toys when he was getting his “extra $600” per week. As suspected, it was far more than he earned or had ever earned. He called her in a panic because his job called him back in, and that meant an end to the “extra $600” gravy he was getting. He explained he couldn’t make all of his bills on his regular job without that extra money. You just can’t make this shit up.

      1. He’ll either have to take on a second job or lose the toys.

        “Experience keeps a dear school. but fools will learn in no other.”

        What is amazing is that he could get a loan while unemployed. We truly are back to the “fog a mirror” days.

        1. “Experience keeps a dear school. but fools will learn in no other.”

          Bahahaha … (thankfully) the world is filled with fools who will NEVER learn no matter what the school.

          1. Some say that humans are the only creatures that keep repeating the same mistake, over and over.

        2. What is amazing is that he could get a loan while unemployed. We truly are back to the “fog a mirror” days.

          That’s the thing – the subprime auto, RV and toys loans are more prolific than ever before. They don’t even verify income anymore. It’s no doc for autos and everything else.

      2. RIP- Clueless Buying stuff during a recession
        Good friend’s son has a good job and is about 1 year out of college. He Gets laid off in April and May, then called back late May. So what does he do? he buys a $40,000+ pickup truck in June. HUH??? I guess he will be fine as long as he doesn’t lose his job in the next 6 years. (He was out of work less than a month before buying a new truck!)

          2. JUST WHAT is this blasted obsession with sexi-trux?

            People (particularly young men) in rural areas have displayed their status and sexual availability with their truck at least since I was a kid. They just didn’t used to have access to much credit so the trucks tended to be old beater farm trucks with only the addition of big cheap wheels and tires.

            Side note, I’ve seen the truck nutz for many years, but a few weeks ago on “the strip” in Biloxi, MS, I saw for the first time a large inflatable phallus sticking out of the sunroof of a big truck that was cruising with other trucks. It’s interesting how our culture continues to coarsen…and not a good sign for our future.

          4. I dont care much about the look of my car, just the functionality and I find it amusing to drive a junker vs. something nice – everyone treats you differently, not just the women although theyre the most materialistic. I love when someone asks what I do for a living – I tell them to guess, and I’m pretty sure the car I’m driving is at least 40% of their decision. I can be anything from a waiter to a doctor.

          5. Sure there are plenty of credit card millionaires that cant wait to get their hands on that upcoming Sexi tesla truck with auto pilot. Whats the likelihood we see news of it driving through crowds? 10,000 lb triangle of steel could really do some harm at a BLM or an orange man bad riot. Oh the horror!

          6. “…everyone treats you differently, not just the women although theyre the most materialistic.”

            Back in the day when I repossessed a really expensive German car it was amazing to see the ladies “eye-phuc’n” me, even women with children, while we waited for a green light. I know exactly why the “$30k/yr millionaire” guys commit to the car payments and insurance.

      3. I would speculate at least 30% of the population is this dumb. 100 million lackwits, just wandering around the USA….

      1. War, economic depression, famine, natural disaster, pandemic… you name it, ANY crisis carves a deep divide between haves and have-nots. People with a lot of money can buy their way out. People with a little money can prepare. People with no money buffer will suffer. This is nothing new.

      2. I kind of like the image of the “K-shaped recovery.” The net worths of the wealthy are taking off while the rest are cratering. Asset price bubbles do that.

  3. ‘Notably, margins throughout the pandemic average around 21%, closer to skilled nursing facilities, while net operating income losses averaged around 30%’

    Using the magic fairy dust of cap rates, this leaves nursing homes worth less than nothing.

    DONG!

    1. The response to CV-19 will also impact Independent and Assisted Living Facilities. My Mother is in an assisted living facility and we have not been allowed to see since mid-March until the last few weeks. The visits are once a week and constrained to a half hour. The residents are required to wear masks although many have diminished lung capacity and in states which are more restrictive (PA) there is no mask requirement for the residents.

      It doesn’t matter what or how you think that these folks should be isolated or not but the fact remains that 20 of 28 people tested positive including my Mom in this particular facility. Symptoms were said to be ‘soft stool for a number of days’ and not much else. After that these residents are essentially locked in their rooms for 14 days under isolation. As you can imagine these people are deteriorating faster than the rest of the population. Is it a response to CV-19 or their treatment/isolation?

      I mention this to color the narrative around further declines in demand for senior housing because people will be and should be asking, ‘Why should I sign my parents up for a nursing facility whereby I can potentially not see them again for an indeterminate amount of time and be treated poorly as a response to the hysteria?’

      1. Is it a response to CV-19 or their treatment/isolation? It’s a question for future epidemiologic research, how likely CV-19 is to kill the residents vs. how likely they are to die from isolation standards.

        1. What you folks say is so true. My parents live in an independent living apartment. One of my sisters has basically moved in with them in exchange for their covering the mortgage on her Denver condo. If she weren’t there, I don’t know how they could survive for a month, as they have been socially isolated away from their peer group in the retirement community, which it turns out was a huge source of emotional vitality and strength to all concerned.

          At some points, life seems very bleak without normal social ties.

          2. Warms my heart that your sister was able to do that and even thought of doing such a thing to help them.

          3. life seems very bleak without normal social ties. We all “get by with a little help from our friends” in so many different ways.

  4. ‘while about half of the landlords and property managers surveyed said they were staying profitable, many were not. ‘Troublingly, 40% said they were struggling, and 10% note that they (or the owners) are considering selling’

    Yeah, you can always sell says UHS. This professor has an odd outlook. Apparently he thinks rental shacks will become second shacks for mainland suckers. Hawaii already sunk its economic ship.

    I could post lots more tales of woe. This thing is just getting started. The bed wetters got what they wanted. You got Marxists running cities and states. You realize Marxists want to destroy this country, right?

    1. “You realize Marxists want to destroy this country, right?”

      Yep, this is what I have been saying. Here is a clue as to what the Movers & Shakers who run the world have in store for us deplorable peons …

      “To achieve a better outcome, the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions. Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed. In short, we need a ‘Great Reset’ of capitalism.”

      Go here to read more …

      Now is the time for a ‘great reset’ of capitalism | World Economic Forum
      https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/

      1. Mr Banker, does Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum sound exactly like a Bond film villain? Whenever I hear him speak I think of Spectre or Dr Evil. These are super creepy people.

    2. “You realize Marxists want to destroy this country, right?”

      – That’s right, but many are embracing the comforting lies vs. the unpleasant truths anyway. This is across the board, but esp. so in the Communist/Leftist/Marxist/Progressive/Socialist dogma.

      “A society that chooses between capitalism and socialism does not choose between two social systems; it chooses between social cooperation and the disintegration of society.” – Ludwig von Mises

      “Socialism is the same as Communism, only better English.” – George Bernard Shaw

      “The goal of socialism is communism.” – Vladimir Lenin

      “The enduring lesson of the 20th century is that socialism is a failure, and free markets are a success. But the politicians keep advocating just a little more socialism.” – Milton Friedman

      “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.” – Milton Friedman

      1. but many are embracing the comforting lies vs. the unpleasant truths

        And the comforting lie right now is that about half the country can freeload off the other half, though the official line is that they will “eat the rich”. What they forget to mention is that anyone with a non menial job is rich.

        1. My spouse and I joke how we are “rich” according to the gimmedats. How dare we don’t live hand to mouth!

        2. Half the country can and does freeload on the other half. The rich freeload off both halves. This has been ongoing for decades.

          As a member of the half being freeloaded on, I’d like to see the poor freeload off the rich, and all of them to leave me alone.

          That last ‘tax cut’ cost me almost $4000. I had to send the IRS a big fat check, and this year my paychecks are smaller. I’m not going to stick up for the rich or the poor. They don’t stick up for me.

          1. “Half the country can and does freeload on the other half. The rich freeload off both halves. This has been ongoing for decades.”

            You nailed it.

          2. Our taxes also went up, due to elimination of the charitable donation deduction, I believe…

          3. That last ‘tax cut’ cost me almost $4000

            Because you live in a poorly run state? (salt tax deduction limit)

          4. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-years-after-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-who-are-the-winners-and-the-losers-2020-02-11:

            Perceptions often override reality. The TCJA is a case in point.

            An online survey conducted for The New York Times and published in April of 2019 (after most returns for the 2018 tax year had been filed) found that only 40% of Americans believed they had received a tax cut under the TCJA. Only 20% were certain they had received one. A large minority thought their taxes had actually gone up.

            To the contrary, a study conducted by the Tax Policy Center found that 65% of households actually got a tax cut in 2018, while only 6% paid more. The rest saw little or no change in their tax bills.

      2. “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.” – Milton Friedman

        Exactly right

    3. I’m not sure people are taking this Marxist thing serious enough. Past performance says it has a good chance of wining and that’ll mean lining people up against walls…
      “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
      So far good men aren’t doing much more than talking and joking.
      I hope I’m wrong about all this.

      1. I’m not sure people are taking this Marxist thing serious enough.

        The allure of getting something for nothing is strong, very strong; even for the middle class. It’s why so many have jumped into real estate, either as speculators and/or landlords. They think they can get free money. Soaking the “rich” is just another form of this.

      2. “It’s why so many have jumped into real estate, either as speculators and/or landlords.”

        So far as I can tell, real estate investors are happy to have the Fed behind the curtain pulling the interest rate strings necessary to ensure that real estate always goes up.

  6. “…I think we could be heading toward a bubble burst,’ realtor Amy Asher said cautiously….”

    But, but Amy. The REIConplex has insisted all along that there *was no bubble*.

    “…Although the future looks promising…”

    Help us out, Amy. Give us just a couple of points of *why* ‘the future looks promising.

    Amy is clearly a graduate of the REIConplex training session “How to be an effective liar”

    1. “How to be an effective liar”

      This technique works best when applied to the totally dumbed-down graduates of the brilliant past educational policy of No Child Left Behind.

      Lies that should generate laughter due to their absurdity are readily absorbed in all seriousness by the vast multitudes of dimmed thinking Americans of all ages.

      As an American citizen I should see this as a tragedy, but as a banker I see this as a victory.

    2. “…I think we could be heading toward a bubble burst,’ realtor Amy Asher said cautiously….”

      I think it’s about time to call my old REALTOR friend. And I do mean old. She’s got to be pushing 80 now. As far as REALTORS go, she was as good as could be expected, and was always forthcoming about the current state of the market. I’d be interested in hearing the inside scoop from somebody in the murky swamp.

    3. Oh man I would love to see the bubble burst here! What’ll it take?

      Last time the Fed jerked up rates a bit, right? Which now eCONomists say was a mistake?

      That’ll never happen now.

  7. Jerome “Zimbabwe (Lil Zim)” Powell has an insatiable appetite for printed dollars.

    Fed chief: Better that Congress provides too much fiscal support than too little

      1. The push for UBI increases. If the Dems take the White House and Senate, I will be surprised if they don’t implement some sort of UBI.

  9. Everybody is calling for a stock market crash. Conversely, I’m thinking the DOW is going above 40,000, simply because of all the Powellbucks and stimulus. It’s running like a firehose into equities.

    1. As long as housing prices continue cratering, all is well.

      God Bless President Donald J. Trump and God Bless America!

    2. The financial videos on youtube are documenting the cold war between deflation and inflation. The general consensus is holding pattern now, then deflation, followed by hyperinflation later. The investment strategy for such a scenario is obvious; the only question is when.

      1. “The investment strategy for such a scenario is obvious …”

        Please clue me in on this obvious investment strategy.

        1. Being a banker, you won’t like it.
          1. HODLing period (now): Sell out equities to cash and some PMs. Sell high.
          2. Deflation crash: buy buy buy equities and more PMs. Buy low.
          3. Inflation phase. Sell high, pay off all dollar-denominated debt with worthless dollars.
          3A. Inflation phase is predicted to hit 2-3 years from now. If you’re near retirement and toying with downsizing, consider buying the retirement home during deflation (buy low) and selling the primary home during inflation phase (sell high). Move to retirement home.

          1. you won’t like it

            Ironically, I followed this plan some 20 years ago. Bought silver @ $5 and gold @ $300 to $400. Got out of the big house in 2004 and paid off all remaining debts over the next few years with bubble money. Rented on the cheap and lived most of the time on an old boat. Stacked up dollars. Bought a distressed property for retirement home in 2013 for pocket change. Retired 2017. Enjoying travel and time in the studio.

            Nothing extraordinary, just the non-debt based approach.

          2. Nothing extraordinary, just the non-debt based approach.

            It’s a good plan. But almost requires being single. Two spouses both thinking the same thing in that area is rare indeed.

          3. requires being single

            Ironically. I used to joke here that I was a committed renter in that area as well.

          4. It’s a good plan. But almost requires being single. Two spouses both thinking the same thing in that area is rare indeed.

            Most women, not all, but most are like a boat anchor when you’re trying to get away from the rocky shore. They will drag you down financially, then ruin you. It’s beat into them that they have to keep up with other women.

            Heck, even my last gf who was frugal was a cash drain on me. She loved to save her money but spend mine. It was very odd, since I already provided her with free room and board. When I look back, she was basically a sponge. But she was easy on the eyes and stayed in great shape, so there’s that.

          5. “Heck, even my last gf who was frugal was a cash drain on me. She loved to save her money but spend mine. It was very odd, since I already provided her with free room and board. When I look back, she was basically a sponge. But she was easy on the eyes and stayed in great shape, so there’s that.”

            Here a sample course of Leykis101 for you …

            Watch “Tom Leykis Everthing Is So Hard” on YouTube
            https://youtu.be/ak6mBWII_5o

          6. But she was easy on the eyes and stayed in great shape,

            Don’t deny it. You were paying her to “work.”

          7. Don’t deny it. You were paying her to “work.”

            No, I wasn’t. I wanted a contributor. Even though she was adorable, I wasn’t looking to take care of a grown woman. So I ended it. There’s more, but my resources seemed to be something she liked to use a bit more than I was comfortable with.

          8. I wanted a contributor.

            Sounds like she thought she was far enough out of your league that a partial free ride was reasonable while you thought it was a relationship between equals. At least one of you was overestimating your market value :-).

          9. Sounds like she thought she was far enough out of your league that a partial free ride was reasonable while you thought it was a relationship between equals. At least one of you was overestimating your market value :-).

            No. As far as women go, I’ve had even more attractive than her. I just never wanted to get married which was a dealbreaker for them. I realized what a sham marriage is way before my peers. A bunch of them have been taken to the cleaners, and I avoided all that anguish.

      2. It’s just simple. The Commies and the Fat Cats got control of Government. This has created not only a gutting of America, but rigged financial systems and monopolies. You couldn’t have more sinister entities that gained power in the last 20 years. They have shown their true colors and basically they want a Big Government that serves them at the expense of the Citizens who are the host of these parasites looters.
        The total lack of regard for Trump voters who were basically objecting to be overtaken by this insanity is obvious.
        So, the Trump adminstration just exposed just how advanced the agendas of these power factions were. Commies and Fat Cats in bed with Big Government on a destruction course of Looting America until its not America anymore.

        So , the division in this Country is really people who want the USA to return to it’s former Government for the People verses the Commie/Fat Cat overtaking of the Government pawn that had already taken place and needs to be undone.

  10. The PTB are doubling and tripling down on every poor decision which has led us as a country to where we are today. They are trying to solve a debt crisis with more debt.

    2. sol·ven·cy
      /ˈsälv(ə)nsē/

      noun: solvency

      -the possession of assets in excess of liabilities; ability to pay one’s debts.

      Liquidity doesn’t do anything for a solvency crisis. Commercial real estate is doomed, for the most part. The CCP virus/commie lockdowns would be bad by themselves. A big whopping bubble in all things real estate prior means crater. The number of businesses getting wiped out right now can’t even be counted, because there are so many millions of them.

      in·sol·ven·cy
      /inˈsälvənsē/

      noun: insolvency; plural noun: insolvencies

      -the state of being insolvent; inability to pay one’s debts.

      It’s all well and good for people who get paid to hide under their beds to stay there. Many people can’t or won’t. Quit listening to the bed-wetters and control freak/communists. The CCP virus isn’t a death threat. How do I know? The guberment never stopped lotto.

      1. That’s exactly it. Tens of millions of home-debtors are insolvent and have been for years now.

        1. “Tens of millions of home-debtors are insolvent and have been for years now.”

          They are right where I want them to be.

          OMG, was that ever so easy.

          😁

          1. Banks want their money…. They’re not interested in rapidly depreciating assets like houses.

          2. Who said anything about wanting their houses? Bankers don’t want their houses, they want their souls; This house buying nonsense is just a way of getting them.

      2. Liquidity doesn’t do anything for a solvency crisis.

        That’s just it – they are using the wrong tool for the job. When you’re 10 feet under and can’t crawl out you need a ladder, not a shovel. They have decided to get a bigger shovel.

        1. “…a solvency crisis.”

          This is why I refuse to start a small business. Most of the potential customers are broke, and I’d fritter away my time dogging the accounts receivable. Been there, done that, got the tee shirt.

    1. His quote; “real estate takes all these individual undesirable qualities of humanity, and bundles them up in a nice little bow in an institutionalized fashion and calls it a ‘market'”.

      Fraud, graft, lies, distortions, false data, subterfuge and treason.

  12. ‘(The pandemic) almost kind of helped me, because it did bring the prices lower and the interest rates dropped,’ Saiz said. ‘It was kind of an opportunity that I took advantage of. It was a total no-brainer.‘

    Yes. Yes it was.

  13. It’s a beautiful day in Westcliffe, CO. I haven’t seen a single Burn Loot Murder yard sign anywhere in Custer County. It feels like I left Denver and travelled to the United States.

    1. It’s a beautiful day in Westcliffe, CO. I haven’t seen a single Burn Loot Murder yard sign anywhere in Custer County.

      I don’t recall seeing one in my little burg. Even in “Boulder-lite” Fort Collins they are a rare sight. Then again, so are black people. Even on the CSU campus blacks are few and far between. Your best chance of sighting one will be in a Rams NCAA match.

        1. The neighborhoods in Denver where these signs proliferate are 99% or more white.

          It’s all just a combo #OrangeManBad / #PleaseDontBurnMyHouseDown virtue signal.

    2. “It’s a beautiful day in Westcliffe, CO.”

      That town is small…and remote too. Everyone might attend the same church and have the same great grandfather.

        1. Please check your screen name when you comment. I’ve had to delete an “I” in front the past three times.

  14. “Across the U.S., 278 properties backing securitized mortgages were in foreclosure as of last week, according to Trepp, and at least 80 of them had financial problems related to Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. Real-estate attorneys and executives say they expect the number of foreclosures to increase. ‘It’s coming,’ said Jay Olshonsky, chief executive of real-estate-services firm NAI Global. ‘It’s just a question of how bad is it going to be.’”

    So the other 200 were screwed unrelated to the CCP Virus? It was a good thing lending standards were tight! Oh WAIT

  16. The constant in all these stories is people leaving big cities for the ‘burbs or the sticks. Turns out all the vibrancy and diversity and the rest of the BS about cities means squat. If you can work from home, none of that nonsense matters. People want safety and comfort above all else. They put up with the homelessness and poop on the street and crime because they had no other choice career wise. But now that they do have a choice, they’re sayin adios to San Francisco and New York.

    1. Indeed, the yarn about being able to get chinese food at 3am or having great views, etc etc was all just lies to cover the rot everywhere. We tried to warn people that the cities were sh!tholes but the snobs just raised their noses ever higher to the sky and proclaimed flyover as unworthy and akin to 13th century living. I hope those same fools who are now leaving for flyover are being smashed with maces and morning stars at the state line, lol.

    2. But now that they do have a choice, they’re sayin adios to San Francisco and New York.

      True. But I don’t think they want to go all the way back to red state BFE. They’re looking for a cheaper safer place where they can turn back the clock to early stage leftism…that’s where they are most comfortable.

      1. They’re looking for a cheaper safer place where they can turn back the clock to early stage leftism

        + 1 million. And they’re convinced that this time they’ll get it right.

        1. And they’re convinced that this time they’ll get it right.

          I don’t think they think they made any mistakes last time. They just got caught up in something nobody could have seen coming. Breathtakingly oblivious to cause and effect…and always ready to exploit the next “opportunity”.

  17. I’m not a Costco shopper. As a single individual, it does not pay for itself. The other day at the grocery store I needed some paper towels. HOLY SMOKES. I am not sure what happened to paper towel prices but it was ludicrous. Larger packs were pushing $20. I ended up buying a two pack for $5.

    1. I was cleaning some kitchenware & needed a spray bottle of oven cleaner. Found out that the Dollar General price had gone from $1 a can to $2.95 a can in just a few years.

        1. Is it really a “dollar store” if things aren’t a buck anymore? The meaning of the store name must have shifted a bit, to “This store accepts dollars in partial payment for its wares”

  18. CHICAGO, Oct 5 (Reuters) – Illinois is “almost guaranteed” a credit rating downgrade to junk if its voters next month reject a constitutional amendment allowing the state to tax high-income residents more, a Citi research report said on Monday.”

    2. Below average taxes, lots of graft, rich pensions, but still good services. What a great deal Illinois offered!

      Until it didn’t.

      Kind of like the U.S. as a whole.

    1. Not surprisingly, retailers reported an increased number of first-time gun buyers, estimating that 40 percent of their sales were to this group. This is an increase of 67 percent over the annual average of 24-percent first-time gun buyers that retailers have reported in the past. Semiautomatic handguns were the primary firearm being purchased by first-time buyers, outpacing the second-most purchased firearm, shotguns, by a 2 to 1 margin. Modern sporting rifles [AR-15s], revolvers and traditional rifles rounded out the top five types of firearms purchased by first-time gun buyers.

      Molon labe, globalist stooges.

    2. A relative lives near Wolfe City, TX, where a cop shot a black man in the back. The cop was arrested and charged with murder. Anywho, BLM/Antifa sent bus loads of people there. The locals, while sympathetic to the guy who was shot and killed, were ready for the rioters, and were armed and ready in case there was trouble. Nothing happened last night. Don’t know if the mostly peaceful protestors left or if they will try again tonight.

  20. “Across the U.S., 278 properties backing securitized mortgages were in foreclosure as of last week, according to Trepp

    Oh dear. But that means the collateral on billions if not trillions in CRE and residential loans is now vulnerable to true price discovery, which by extension means no one can give you a meaningful valuation on the toxic waste crap bundled into “securitized mortgages” and fobbed off on investors.

    Say, isn’t that exactly what precipitated the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros, and triggered the 2008 global financial crisis?

  21. ‘We’ve never had a situation where people weren’t paying their rent on their apartments, like we have now,’ Mr. Olshonsky said.”

    As the Fed’s Everything Bubble implodes, I’m guessing we’re going to have lots of situations we never had before. This is going to get ugly.

    1. ‘We’ve never had a situation where people weren’t paying their rent on their apartments, like we have now,’ Mr. Olshonsky said.”

      We’ve never had a situation where people were encouraged to stay and not pay before.

  22. For first time home buyer Alex Saiz Saiz, the upswing after lockdown meant finding the perfect bachelor pad. ‘(The pandemic) almost kind of helped me, because it did bring the prices lower and the interest rates dropped,’ Saiz said. ‘It was kind of an opportunity that I took advantage of. It was a total no-brainer.’”

    Alex has no idea of what an idiot he is. But he’s about to find out.

  23. “‘It’s not a mass sell-off. You’re not getting fire-sale prices,’ said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker. ‘I don’t see anything that says San Francisco is going to be a ghost town anytime soon.’”

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” — Upton Sinclair

  24. Joe Biden in Miami: “I’m the guy that ran against the socialists.” And the blue hairs in the audience, who are further along in their senility than Biden himself, might buy that. But Biden belongs to a party that is collectivist to its core, and his running mate Kamala Harris, who is waiting in the wings to shunt him aside, takes her orders from the same globalists who are funding and directing every radical-left group in the country.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-takes-swipe-at-sanders-says-im-the-guy-who-ran-against-the-socialists

  25. Looks like October’s just getting started.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dni-brennan-notes-cia-memo-clinton: “Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Tuesday declassified documents that revealed former CIA Director John Brennan briefed former President Obama on Hillary Clinton’s purported “plan” to tie then-candidate Donald Trump to Russia as “a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server” ahead of the 2016 presidential election.”

    Sidney Powell on Hillary Clinton’s server: https://youtu.be/LTV1Y_QuZOM?t=3241

    1. Not clear why the Prez is taking the MSM blame for the collapse of stimulus talks, as it seems like he was in favor of it until the end. Could it be that the Dems refused to budge from their preferred version?

    2. So, the real estate industry wants Section 8 expanded to everyone eligible?

      That the difference between food assistance, health care assistance and housing assistance. The first two are an entitlement that automatically paid out, like Social Security. The third has a budget, and there is a waiting list.

    3. ‘The CDC’s national eviction moratorium will keep Americans in their homes for now, but experts say emergency rent relief is needed to prevent an eviction crisis in 2021’

      Gee, wonder if my landlord is going to raise my rent this upcoming January if they have an eviction crisis on their hands. Usually get a 2% annual rent increase. On the other hand, January in New England is a heckuva time to hope that influx of transplants and alike want to start a new lease, so maybe there could be hungry landlords opting to offer deals elsewhere than this area I am in.

        1. “What kind of God takes Eddie Van Halen and leaves George Soros?”

          Well, that’s going to keep me tossing and turning tonight.

        2. What kind of God takes Eddie Van Halen and leaves George Soros?

          Have no fear, for He eventually takes everyone. What you should be concerned about is whether or not He will keep you.

          And perhaps we deserve Soros.

  31. Filed under: Knock me over with a feather.

    Vice President Joe Biden said Tuesday that if President Trump is still testing positive for COVID-19 that the two candidates “shouldn’t have a debate.”

    “I think if he still has COVID we shouldn’t have a debate,” Biden said of Trump, who returned to the White House on Monday night after spending three days hospitalized at Walter Reed Medical Center being treated for COVID-19.

  34. What caused California’s rolling blackouts? Climate change and poor planning

    ‘California suffered its first rolling blackouts in nearly 20 years because energy planners didn’t take climate change into account and didn’t line up the right power sources to keep the lights on after sundown, according to a damning self-evaluation released Tuesday by three state agencies.’

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2020-10-06/california-rolling-blackouts-climate-change-poor-planning

    What a bunch of clowns. Meanwhile, down the road in Arizona (everywhere else too), there’s no power outages.

    1. By blaming the power outages on climate change they can, with a straight face, say “It’s not our fault”

      1. “By blaming the power outages on climate change they can, with a straight face, say ‘It’s not our fault’.”

        At this point the majority of the population has been sufficiently dumbed-down far enough that they will buy into anything you care to tell them.

      2. The power outages are a result of shutting down gas fired power plants in order to “go green”. Whatever the left touches turns to ashes.

        1. I recall a TV ad, from years ago, where George Burns would do a PSA asking SoCal people to not use their appliances (washers, etc.) during the daytime because of power loads. He yammered about not needing to build more power plants if everyone chipped in.

          California has been fooked regarding power for a long time. The highest rates in the country and they can’t keep the lights on.

    2. “…didn’t line up the right power sources to keep the lights on after sundown,…”

      I guess it’s hard to afford such luxuries when you’re broke. And to make matters worse, the state is heavily dependent on a Ponzi-financed real estate mania which is collapsing as I type.

      1. What gets me is that electricity rates in California are among the highest in the country, but they can’t afford to build enough power plants.

        1. They HAVE the power plants! They shut them down to go green! I don’t know how long it would take to re-open them, but that’s the problem. Aaaaannnndd, they’re going to need more of them also! But shutting them down early was nuts.

          I’m going on memory from what i’ve read, but it didn’t seem like BS to me. Sorry i don’t have a link for you.

          1. I believe you. They have been shutting down fossil fuel plants to virtue signal but haven’t been building enough replacement plants.

            It’s only going to get worse.

          2. CA shut down Gas powered plants and depended on buying energy from other states and when the heat wave hit all the west the other states had no spare energy. Probably coal fired energy . So lame

    1. This layoff was mostly in Disneyland, which is still closed and bleeding fixed costs. The layoff announcement strikes me as brinkmanship between Gov. Nuisance and the Disney company. Disney CEO Iger resigned from Newsom’s Covid task force.

      Anyway, it’s fun to see woke Disney getting very angry with the state government, basically saying: For Pete’s sake, we need to reopen the parks and hotels, we’re losing our shirts!, While his Newsomeness ignores them. I doubt that Newsom gives a rat’s tail about all those about to be laid off.

  39. Considering that further stimulus negotiations are reportedly dead in the water until after the November election, there sure do seem to be lots of stimulus negotiations going on behind the scenes, plus ongoing stock market rallies on hoped-for passage of new stimulus measures.

    What gives?

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