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The Concept Failed, Nobody Showed Up To Buy Any Lots Or Any Houses

A report from KTVB Boise in Idaho. “Jeffree Nice put his home on the market last month. ‘I think it’s been a little over 30 days, which is somewhat normal in these times. I guess I just missed the window,’ Nice said. While Nice loves the Treasure Valley, he’s trying to sell his home so he can move to Texas to be with his kids and grandkids. ‘I listed it originally for $430,000 which was well within the you know, the comparable home rate at the time,’ Nice said. ‘I did lower it about two weeks ago to $415,000. He told KTVB, he might have to lower it again. ‘It’s kind of stressful a little bit,’ Nice said.”

The Denver Gazette. “The median single-family housing price in the seven-county Denver area dropped for a fourth straight month, now at $620,000, according to the August Market Trends Housing report from the Colorado Association of Realtors. ‘You see a good sign, and then there’s a thousand-point drop in the stock market,’ said Deviree Vallejo, top-selling agent with LIV Sotheby’s International in Denver, noting that agents are struggling to get their feet planted in the shifting scene. ‘It’s an abrupt change from wild, intense market to ‘What are we going to do to get showings?’”

From Maui News in Hawaii. “The median price of a home in Maui County dipped below $1 million for the first time in nearly a year, as the housing market ‘continues to shift in a more buyer-friendly direction,’ according to the latest report from the Realtors Association of Maui. The median sales price of $983,575 for a single-family home in August was a 5.9 percent decrease from the median price of $1,045,000 in August 2021. Over the summer, Maui County set a new record for median home prices at $1,252,500 in June.”

The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “Orlando home prices declined for the second month in a row in August and inventory continued rising. ‘This last month has been refreshing,’ said Juliette Nieves of Fidelity Property Brokers in Kissimmee. ‘The prices have shifted in a way that you can get a client a home with equity rather than having to overbid in order to even been looked at.’ Nieves said she’s seen more listings coming on the market each month, while homes for sale are sticking around longer. ‘I see a balance happening,’ Nieves said. ‘We’re getting more listings, but we’re not getting more sales.'”

From Clay Today. “In most areas of Northeast Florida, the August housing market reflected a slight drop in median prices while the number of days homes sat on the market has gradually continued to climb. Buyers can relish the good news that, for single-family homes, the percent closed-over list price went down 27.7%. In Clay County, the median price of single-family homes dropped to $366,250 in August, a nearly 5% decline since July. ‘While still an 18% increase year over year, the median price in our six-county market has shown mild fluctuations month to month of between $350,000 and $365,000 since March. This indicates that the dramatic increases that were seen during the pandemic are coming to an end. Closed and pending sales have leveled off in the 2,300 to 2,500 range over the past several months and are now well below the 3,000 to 3,500 peak a little more than a year ago,’ said NEFAR 2022 President Mark Rosener.”

“St. Johns County remains the most expensive area to live with a median single-family home price of $555,000 and a Home Affordability Index number of 49. Yet the August median days on the market for single-family homes leaped up 34.6% to 35 days.”

Portland Monthly in Oregon. “Realtors say the market typically picks up again in September and October, so by the end of the year, we’ll know whether Portland is truly becoming more favorable to buyers, after years of a sustained sellers’ market. In the meantime, in August, throughout the metro area, average and median sale prices continued a three-month slide. In every quadrant of Portland, and in every suburb, without exception, there are fewer pending sales so far this year than there were at the same time in 2021; year-over-year sales are down more than 40 percent in Hillsboro and Forest Grove, nearly 38 percent in Milwaukie and Clackamas, and almost 30 percent in Southeast Portland.”

“In the meantime, here’s a quick look at where prices fell the most last month for neighborhoods in Portland and in its suburbs, plus two places where it ticked up.”

The News and Observer in North Carolina. “Florida investors plan to build a 141-home subdivision in Bahama after a permit and site plan cleared the Durham County Board of Commissioners on Monday night. The land was initially planned for Wetrock Farm, a housing subdivision of the same size with a working organic farm at its core. Commissioners gave that project the go-ahead in 2015 and construction kicked off in 2019, The News & Observer previously reported, before stalling as cash dried up.”

“‘The concept failed. Nobody showed up to buy any lots or any houses. It was an idea whose time has not yet come,’ Patrick Byker, the attorney for the new developer, told the commissioners Monday.”

Times of San Diego in California. “The median price of a single-family home in San Diego County plunged by 5.0% in August to $910,000, but the number of sales increased, the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Prices have fallen since the peak of $1 million in April. ‘The market is shifting in a more buyer-friendly direction with more inventory of homes on the market for a longer amount of time,’ said Chris Anderson, president of the local Realtors association.”

Vancouver is Awesome. “Monthly home sales in B.C. have dropped 40.8 per cent since this time last year, as repeated interest rate hikes continue to drive the market from feverish activity to more stable and ‘balanced’ conditions, according to the B.C. Real Estate Association. The average residential price in B.C. was $918,378 in August, down 17 per cent, from $1,109,000 in January. The higher interest rates are ‘weighing down’ the housing market, according to Royal Bank of Canada. ‘This process is most visible in the suburbs and exurbs of Toronto and Vancouver where price drops have been most significant to date,’ stated a September 7 RBC report.”

“The areas surrounding Vancouver and Toronto, Canada’s least affordable markets, face the most risk because affordability has gotten out of control, especially after ‘outsized price gains during the pandemic,’ the report stated. The Fraser Valley is particularly volatile: Pitt Meadows (-11.3%), Maple Ridge (-10.9%), Port Coquitlam (-10.4%), Cloverdale (-12.4%) and Mission (-15.2%) have recorded the largest price declines over the past three months in Metro Vancouver, noted RBC.”

The Sydney Morning Herald. “The power of rising interest rates to push down house prices has been laid bare in a new graph that shows property values fell within weeks of the first hike to hit Australia in a decade. Property values were still rising across the combined capital cities in the first months of this year, CoreLogic’s daily home value index showed, albeit at a modest pace as the pandemic property boom petered out. Sydney’s house value falls led the country, down 7.6 per cent between May and September, while Melbourne’s dropped 4.9 per cent over the same time. Brisbane, where values were still rising as other capital cities started to fall, is now showing a sharp drop in values, down 2.9 per cent over the past two months.”

“Mortgage broker Andrew Wheatley said the calls for refinancing or renegotiating loans have become more desperate from clients over the past few months.Though many had been getting in touch before the rate rises to try and get a better deal, the messages he was receiving were becoming more urgent. ‘There’s a lot of people just getting in touch saying ‘my mortgage payments are getting out of control and I need to talk to someone,’ Wheatley said.”

The South China Morning Post. “Many homeowners who bought flats in Hong Kong over the past five years are looking at a loss if they decide to sell now, as the housing market enters a downward cycle. In fact, some owners who bought high have been forced to sell low recently, turning paper losses into real losses – in one case to the tune of HK$5.85 million (US$745,334). The person decided to ‘sell as soon as possible and leave the market, as Hong Kong is about to enter the interest rate upcycle,’ said Jason Lam, chief district sales director at Centaline.”

“In Sai Kung, a seller lost HK$3.85 million on a three-bedroom, 1,108 sq ft flat with a garden at Mount Pavilia, which changed hands for HK$17.8 million, 18 per cent below the original price in 2018, according to Century 21 Goodwin. The district in August saw at least four recent loss-making deals at developments completed in the past few years, said Frankie Liu, sales director for Sai Kung area at Century 21 Goodwin.”

From Market Place. “Chinese folksinger and songwriter Chen Peng bought a presale condo in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou seven years ago. Today, his two-bedroom is still under construction. Chen’s condo is among the Qifu City development’s 6,000 units. ‘All the buildings have roofs except for two. But only the building frames are complete,’ Chen said, adding that construction stopped in 2019. ‘Some people say the developer squandered the money in Southeast Asia. That’s the rumor,’ Chen said. ‘I used to think a home mortgage was like a business loan. You have to pay the bank back whether everything works out or not. But now, when I think about it, the banks are just dumping all the risks on the homebuyers.'”

“The housing bubble was sustained because — collectively — property developers, Chinese banks and citizens had faith that home prices only went up. ‘A few years ago, when a new project came on the market, it would be sold out immediately. Homebuyers felt they had to buy right away because prices might keep going up,’ said first-time homebuyer Daisy Wang. In October, she and her husband paid a premium for a presale condo in a Zhengzhou city development called Xitang because it was near good schools. Construction stopped two months later due to lack of funds. ‘I was shocked,’ Wang said.”

“Entrepreneur Shane Wu in Beijing defaulted on his home loans a few years ago, when his business ventures went bad. He’s now on a so-called discredited or “deadbeats” list, which bars people from luxury spending, such as riding bullet trains, flying or sending their children to private school. ‘I am like a socially dead person. Debt-collecting agencies keep calling me, my friends, my family and everyone on my contact list,’ Wu said. ‘They all know I went bankrupt, which makes it hard to restart my life again.'”

“Local governments — including Zhengzhou’s — have ordered developers to resume construction on unfinished homes in the coming weeks. ‘My life in the past few years has felt like I’ve been living in a swamp. I did not have a good income, and yet I still needed to pay the mortgage,’ Chen said, adding that he will only start repaying the loan once construction resumes on his condo. ‘Until then, everything is just empty talk,’ he said.”

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This Post Has 163 Comments

  1. A cavalcade of FBs!

    ‘‘It’s an abrupt change from wild, intense market to ‘What are we going to do to get showings?’

    A lottery?

    1. I suggest housing sales by Dutch auction. Every home is guaranteed to sell if you lower the price enough.

    2. “It’s an abrupt change from wild, intense market to ‘What are we going to do to get showings?’“

      – The very definition of a bubble.

      – Enjoyed the boom? Now enjoy the bust!

  2. ‘St. Johns County remains the most expensive area to live with a median single-family home price of $555,000’

    I included this to make a point: you really fooked up this time Jerry. These faraway sh%tholes never got near this high in the 2000’s.

    1. Instead of asking “how does a SFR that costs $150k to construct right now become $550k”, the Housing Hens simply cluck cluck cluck.

      Appraisal fraud. It’s truly a source of amazement and wonder.

      Pasco, WA Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Plunging Land Values And Diving Home Prices Stretch From Coast To Coast

      https://www.movoto.com/pasco-wa/market-trends/

  3. Is Gollum plotting to pull the plug on Wall Street’s “bull market is back” narrative?

    Once the gullible lose faith, it’s over.

    1. Finger-pointing among execs begins at Goldman Sachs, immediately turns nasty
      By Oli Coleman
      September 14, 2022 | 8:46pm
      Kim Posnett
      Insiders at Goldman Sacks grouse that CEO David Solomon is too dazzled by rock star bankers like Kim Posnett.

      Talk about passing the buck.

      With Goldman Sachs in something of a pinch, the finger-pointing between top execs has begun — and, unsurprisingly, it has turned nasty almost immediately.

      The Wall Street giant announced this week that it would slash jobs with earnings in a slump — and even said that it is taking away free office coffee.

      Some c-suite sourpusses say that the company under the leadership of CEO David Solomon is too focused on flashy executives with “personal brands,” rather than knuckling down to the good old-fashioned hard work of making rich people richer with very little effort.

      Insiders seem to be having a harder time seeing the fun side of Solomon’s own DJing career as DJ D-Sol now that the economy is in a spin.
      …
      https://pagesix.com/2022/09/14/finger-pointing-among-execs-begins-at-goldman-sachs/

  4. “The median price of a single-family home in San Diego County plunged by 5.0% in August to $910,000, but the number of sales increased, the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.”

    A one month price drop of 5% occurs atan annualized rate of 1-(1-0.05)^12 = 46%. San Diego prices are dropping at an accelerating rate of decline, and it’s not even the slow season yet. I sure hope no investors overpaid at the market top!

  6. “‘You see a good sign, and then there’s a thousand-point drop in the stock market,’ said Deviree Vallejo, top-acaselling agent with LIV Sotheby’s International in Denver, noting that agents are struggling to get their feet planted in the shifting scene.”

    I’m curious about that comment. I thought Wall Street and the housing market were decoupled, but her comment suggests the opposite.

    With 33% investor penetration in the market, is housing a risk asset now?

    1. “I’m curious about that comment. I thought Wall Street and the housing market were decoupled, but her comment suggests the opposite.“

      – Housing and stonks are highly correlated. For example peeps use stonk gains for house down payments and purchases.

      – The Fed’s stupid wealth effect cuts both ways. A rising tide due to QE raises all boats. The converse is also true due to removal of QE and/or addition of QT. From bubble to bubble. This is so f*cked!

      – Lots of housing headwinds. There’s a storm coming.

    2. Housing and stonks are not couple to each other. But both are coupled to interest rates. A rising tide sinks all beach houses.

      1. “Housing and stonks are not couple to each other. But both are coupled to interest rates. A rising tide sinks all beach houses.”

        – But data…

        http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article69002.html
        Why “Trouble is Brewing” for the U.S. Housing Market
        Housing-Market / US Housing Jun 07, 2021 – 06:01 PM GMT
        By: EWI

        “Also, keep an eye on the stock market. History shows that stock and real estate prices tend to be closely correlated.“

        “Here’s a chart and commentary from the 2020 edition of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash:”

        [See chart]

        “Real estate prices have always fallen hard when stock prices have fallen hard. The chart displays this reliable relationship.“

        —

        “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.” – W. Edwards Deming

        “If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine.” – Jim Barksdale

    3. I’m curious about that comment. I thought Wall Street and the housing market were decoupled, but her comment suggests the opposite.

      It’s all just reckless gambling at this point. Like Ben says, Jerry really fu*ked things up this time.

  7. “Chinese folksinger and songwriter Chen Peng bought a presale condo in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou seven years ago. Today, his two-bedroom is still under construction.”

    Why does it take so long to build chit in China?

  8. “The housing bubble was sustained because — collectively — property developers, Chinese banks and citizens had faith that home prices only went up.”

    It’s pretty interesting how California real estate fever went viral in communist countries.

  9. Comments are becoming legal advice with a weaponized DOJ & FBI

    Woman says FBI showed up at her home after supporting Trump online

    Sep 13, 2022

    Lisa Gallagher recalls being woken up by federal law enforcement after voicing her support for former President Trump on Facebook in an interview on ‘Tucker Carlson Tonight.’

    https://youtu.be/AqU6vvfQEWc

    2. New York Post — Facebook spied on private messages of Americans who questioned 2020 election (9/14/2022):

      “Facebook has been spying on the private messages and data of American users and reporting them to the FBI if they express anti-government or anti-authority sentiments — or question the 2020 election — according to sources within the Department of Justice.

      Under the FBI collaboration operation, somebody at Facebook red-flagged these supposedly subversive private messages over the past 19 months and transmitted them in redacted form to the domestic terrorism operational unit at FBI headquarters in Washington, DC, without a subpoena.

      “It was done outside the legal process and without probable cause,” alleged one of the sources, who spoke on condition of ­anonymity.

      “Facebook provides the FBI with private conversations which are protected by the First Amendment without any subpoena.”

      These private messages then have been farmed out as “leads” to FBI field offices around the country, which subsequently requested subpoenas from the partner US Attorney’s Office in their district to officially obtain the private conversations that Facebook already had shown them.

      The Facebook users whose private communications Facebook had red-flagged as domestic terrorism for the FBI were all “conservative right-wing individuals.”

      “As soon as a subpoena was requested, within an hour, Facebook sent back gigabytes of data and photos. It was ready to go. They were just waiting for that legal process so they could send it.”

      Facebook denied the allegations yesterday.

      https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/facebook-spied-on-private-messages-of-americans-who-questioned-2020-election/

      Stop using Facebook and any globalist social media.

      1. Stop using Facebook and any globalist social media.

        I did it a long time ago, like almost 10 years ago. People told me I was crazy.

      2. which are protected by the First Amendment

        The law doesn’t protect anything. Only people who uphold the law do.

        I have never used social media.

  11. “The median sales price of $983,575 for a single-family home in August was a 5.9 percent decrease from the median price of $1,045,000 in August 2021. Over the summer, Maui County set a new record for median home prices at $1,252,500 in June.”

    The annualized rate of price decline in Maui from June through August was
    1-(983575 /1252500)^6 = 76.5%.

    Is that alot?

  12. Call it a hunch, call it an intuition, but I get the feeling that what we’re seeing here is a bursting housing bubble.

  13. ‘I listed it originally for $430,000 which was well within the you know, the comparable home rate at the time,’ Nice said. ‘I did lower it about two weeks ago to $415,000. He told KTVB, he might have to lower it again. ‘It’s kind of kind of stressful a little bit,’ Nice said.”

    Suck it real hard, greedhead Jeffree with two e’s.

  14. Celebrity Biden supporter Cardi B bitching about having to financially support her hangers-on during the “cost of living crisis” brought to you by #BidensAmerica.

    ‘What happens to people who don’t have a me?’ Cardi B shares outrage over ‘unbearable’ cost of living as the multimillionaire rapper questions how people survive

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11211011/Cardi-B-shares-outrage-unbearable-cost-living.html

    Cardi B has shared her outrage over the ‘unbearable’ cost of living as she took to Instagram to share her views on America’s soaring house prices on Tuesday.

    The rapper, who has an estimated net worth of $40million (£35million), admitted that she has to financially help her family and friends and questioned how others survive.

      1. She is probably having to say “No” and that’s why she’s upset. The hangers on vanish when you say “No”.

  15. ‘It’s an abrupt change from wild, intense market to ‘What are we going to do to get showings?’”

    Simple. Get to sawin’ and slashin’ like you mean it.

  16. “Jeffree Nice put his home on the market last month. ‘I think it’s been a little over 30 days, which is somewhat normal in these times. I guess I just missed the window,’

    Meet Jefree…. Jefree Craterton…. He believes a used house is somehow worth 4x construction costs…..like millions of other DebtDonkeys out there.

    Phoenix, AZ Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Arizona Sellers Capitulate And Demand Collapses

    https://www.movoto.com/az/85006/market-trends/

  17. More Kabuki theater as Australia’s globalist Quisling lawmakers pretend to take the RBA to the woodshed for blowing gargantuan speculative bubbles, then breaking it off in speculators’ arses.

    Blunt message to RBA boss as review calls for major overhaul

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/blunt-message-to-rba-boss-as-review-calls-for-major-overhaul/news-story/f12705f4cfe931411bdf88b194940ab8

    The Reserve Bank is facing a grilling on how it prepared Australias for rate hikes, with an independent review mulling a major overhaul of how the institution operates.

    An issues paper for the review, the first independent probe since the 1990s, released on Thursday canvasses a wide range of potential reforms.

    They include a board shake up, a separate committee to set interest rates and greater accountability for the bank.

  18. In every quadrant of Portland, and in every suburb, without exception, there are fewer pending sales so far this year than there were at the same time in 2021;
    To reiterate what someone said yesterday, the most surprising thing about Portlandia is that anyone would even consider buying a house there, let alone buy one.

  19. ‘The prices have shifted in a way that you can get a client a home with equity rather than having to overbid in order to even been looked at.’

    That so-faux Yellen Bux “equity” is going to be flying off to debauched currency heaven as the implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 gathers force.

  20. I am seeing this in some previous “hot” areas I am tracking.

    Dude – you dropped the price by 3%…

    Do you really think a 3% price drop is gonna start a stampede of buyers?

    ” ‘I listed it originally for $430,000 which was well within the you know, the comparable home rate at the time,’ Nice said. ‘I did lower it about two weeks ago to $415,000.”

    2. It’s a stupid price drop too. if you are listing at 415 you will clearly take 399. And 399 looks a LOT smaller than 415 (i know, it’s stupid but true) and lots of people look from 0 to 399, but your 415 gets skipped. Just man up and lower it to 399 it might actually sell. You’re going to end up there anyway. Realtor’s really don’t understand how negotiating works.

  21. ‘the messages he was receiving were becoming more urgent. ‘There’s a lot of people just getting in touch saying ‘my mortgage payments are getting out of control and I need to talk to someone’

    You can talk to the old HBB. It was cheaper than renting.

    1. ‘my mortgage payments are getting out of control and I need to talk to someone’

      And this just the pregame show. Just wait until the cricket match begins. Those monthly payments are heading to the moon.

      1. “…and I need to talk to someone…”

        Well, these FB’s can talk all they want, but it isn’t going to do much good.

        Blinded by greed, they are now standing on the edge of the abyss. Even Wyle Ethelbert Coyote isn’t going to be able to save these poor souls.

        1. Well, these FB’s can talk all they want, but it isn’t going to do much good.

          They’re probably hoping that enough of them complain that their mortgage rates will become fixed.

          The thought of taking out a million dollar variable rate mortgage when rates are at historic lows sends chills down my spine.

          1. I mean sure, when rates are 1.5% it seems like a no brainer and it’s easy to tell yourself “oh, they’ll never go up!”

            Now, they are facing the prospect of monthly payments being greater than their take home pay.

          2. greater than their take home pay

            And given the economic prospects, that monthly pay for some could be unreliable.

  22. I’ve recently been extrapolating some one or two month housing price declines to annualized rates. These seem to often come in at 50% or more. The calculations show how much home prices would fall over one year, if the current rate of decline continued at a constant rate, which is unlikely…rates of decline bounce around. These are not meant to be predictions, but rather to provide fodder for “what if” discussions.

    For example, what if the recent pace of housing price declines accelerates as awareness of falling prices widens? Could my seemingly dire extrapolations end up underpredicting how much prices will fall over the next year?

    1. “…what if the recent pace of housing price declines accelerates as awareness of falling prices widens?…”

      The FOMO knife cuts both ways.

      IMO, as there is so much mortgage and household debt, coupled with out of control inflation, that it wouldn’t take much negative news for hysteria to break wide open.

      Wouldn’t be surprised to see a line of FB’s on their kneepads outside Mr. Bankers office so long that it would put Queen Elizabeth’s viewing queues at Westminster Hall to shame.

      1. IMO, as there is so much mortgage and household debt, coupled with out of control inflation, that it wouldn’t take much negative news for hysteria to break wide open.

        And our FB’s have fixed rate mortgages. Imagine facing the prospect of the monthly nut doubling or even tripling, piled up on the rest of your debt (cars, credit cards, etc) AND rampant inflation.

    2. Could my seemingly dire extrapolations end up underpredicting

      Extrapolating is easy but I’ve never seen it predict the future well. If you really want to have some fun, try fitting the data to a natural bell curve. That will look dire indeed, but I think still too optimistic.

      I have a feeling that most of the houses built over the past 20 years are already as obsolete as the grand old Victorians. Too large, too grandiose and too costly to keep up. They won’t even stand as long as a Victorian. I wouldn’t take one if it was given to me, and I’ve actually owned one in the past.

      1. “….Too large, too grandiose and too costly to keep up….”

        Embarrassingly cheap construction.

        Builders used ever trick in the book to save a nickel. (and they did)

        Even a house made of cardboard can look good for a period of time.

        Then a big rainstorm or flood or earthquake or fire comes along…..

          1. “….slapped together…”

            I like to carry with me a small combination square / bubble level with me to open houses (along with a metal tape)

            Let me say this: With respect to new construction, you have a better change of winning the Mega-Millions than finding a square / level anything in these ‘houses’.

          2. I like to carry with me a small combination square / bubble level with me to open houses (along with a metal tape)

            I was in a DR Horton new build and the foundation was so bad that the floors were off 3/4″ in 12 feet. The house barely qualified for a loan because it was one step below “uninhabitable” after the bank had it inspected. Again, NEW house, $799,000. Our entire economy has been hijacked by globalist crony capitalist fraudsters.

      2. “I wouldn’t take one if it was given to me”

        Are you referring to a Victorian or a newer 2000-era house? It used to be worthwhile to renovate and restore Victorians and other old houses, but we’re getting to the point where even the well-built stuff is just not savable. At some point even the framing and foundation will fail.

        If some rich person wanted a Victorian, maybe the best bet would be to salvage some original Victorian woodwork trim and install it into a newly-built house. Assuming you could even find the craftsmen who have the ability to build such a house these days.

        1. a Victorian

          Foundation of solid stone. Might last many centuries. Wood framing that could withstand an earthquake. Also will last centuries if kept dry. Take the trim and glue it to a “new” house?

  23. A reader sent these in:

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    From the mouth of the first big housing investor to dump houses: Billionaire Sternlicht says economy ‘breaking hard,’ sees major `housing crash’ @SeekingAlpha. Three months ago, we saw…Sternlicht’s Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1570405381549002752

    The Fed is desperate to win their core inflation fight. To succeed asap, they need to: – Get people unemployed – Hit the housing market hard
    Don’t fight the Fed.

    https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1569833056244011009

    JAPAN’S KATAYAMA: THE COUNTRY LACKS SUFFICIENT TOOLS TO BATTLE THE YEN’S STEEP DECLINE.

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1570246543738900482

    This is where the Fed extends an exit invitation to passive income investors: 1) No more MBS buying, less liquidity, higher rates, lower valuations. 2) Better yield on schemes outside cash flow properties.

    The real estate proponents are right. This is not 2008. It’s worse.

    https://twitter.com/windgineering/status/1570139405125570560

    Short term treasury yield about to surpass single family cap rate. Lol I wonder which one is safer 🤡

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1570140463105024000

    “The likelihood of a recession with significant job losses is on the table,” says @GeorgeRatiu
    with @claretrap
    . If “people … feel less confident buying homes, [that] will generate a downward spiral, which could put housing in a nosedive.”

    https://twitter.com/RDC_Economics/status/1570146617667174400

    Lance Lambert

    It’s not about the numerical rate. It’s about the new monthly payments. These mortgage rates coupled with frothy home prices put new payments in the upper bounds of history.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1570176368058548225

    One of my pet peeves of late is reading a housing market piece that says there is no bubble because of tighter mortgage lending underwriting standards – which is false. Here is why in the next few tweets:

    https://twitter.com/mohannadaama/status/1406296484719566849

    Meanwhile, in Canada. Vancouver home prices coming down. 3rd largest city in that country. This is arguably the most overpriced housing market in North America.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1570195942669635584

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Current situation:

    1. Median home price now down a historic 6% in 2 months

    2. 40-year high inflation remains despite rate hikes

    3. Global energy crisis has begun

    4. Supply chain issues are worsening

    5. Rising interest rates into a slowing economy

    Recession is the best case.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1570186568312442882

    1. “To succeed asap, they need to: – Get people unemployed – Hit the housing market hard”

      That’s pure BS. The Fed doesn’t deliberately target housing and unemployment to bring down inflation. Rather the rate hikes needed to rein in inflation tend to result in collateral damage elsewhere in the economy.

    2. “Median home price now down a historic 6% in 2 months”

      Annualized rate of median home price decline is 1-(1-0.06)^6 = 31%.

    3. “1. Median home price now down a historic 6% in 2 months”

      I sleep like a baby after reading this stuff day after day.🤣👍

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Wall Street stocks slip as investors look ahead to Fed rate rise
      Markets price in possibility of a full percentage point rate increase by US central bank
      The US Federal Reserve building
      Government debt markets came under pressure on Thursday, in a sign of traders anticipating more assertive action on inflation from the US Federal Reserve
      Ian Johnston and Harriet Clarfelt
      8 minutes ago

      US stocks turned lower on Thursday, as investors scrutinised economic data for clues about how aggressively the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates to curb inflation.

      The broad S&P 500 gauge lost 0.4 per cent in morning trading and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5 per cent. European equities also slipped, with the regional Stoxx 600 index dropping 0.7 per cent.

      Those moves came as fresh reports on the US labour market and retail sales gave mixed signals about the health of the world’s largest economy, less than a week before the Fed announces its next monetary policy decision.

      First-time jobless claims in the US came in lower than expected on Thursday, at 213,000 for the week ending September 10 — down from 218,000 for the week prior and lower than economists’ forecasts of 226,000. Those data pointed to a tight labour market, one of the factors taken into account by the Fed as it strategises on borrowing costs.

      At the same time, retail sales for August were hotter than anticipated — rising 0.3 per cent month on month compared with July’s decline of 0.4 per cent and expectations of zero growth. However, excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales unexpectedly contracted by 0.3 per cent compared with a consensus projection of a 0.1 per cent rise.

      Earlier this week, hotter than expected US inflation data had spurred investors to crank up their estimates of how far and fast the Fed would increase rates to cool demand.

      Markets are now pricing in a one-in-three chance that the US central bank will increase rates by a full percentage point next week, after two consecutive rises of 0.75 percentage points.

      “After a high inflation reading earlier in the week, the Fed needed some good news, and it was not forthcoming from the retail sales data,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors.

      “They really could have done with seeing the consumer spending considerably less to take the pressure off rate hikes. The debate over 75 basis point or 100 basis point will run right up the announcement and even then, thoughts will move straight on to the following meeting and probably the one after that as well.”
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Opinion Markets Insight
      The rollercoaster ahead for the economy and investors
      US central bank policy mistakes and market stress are worrisome possibilities in the months ahead
      Mohamed El-Erian
      A stocks trader with his hands partially covering his face
      The catalyst for what many labelled ‘market carnage’ on Tuesday was an ugly inflation report
      Mohamed El-Erian 3 hours ago
      The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy

      The stunning shift in the market mood and prices over the past week is testament to the underlying instability in the current environment for policymakers and investors. And it is an instability that will intensify in the coming months.

      The catalyst for what many labelled “market carnage” on Tuesday — 3 to 5 per cent single-day losses in major US equity indices — was, of course, an ugly inflation report. And the August figures for the US were disappointing in so many ways including, most importantly, a higher month-on-month increase and broadening in drivers of core inflation.

      Judging from the dramatic surge in the 2-year government bond yield, as well as moves elsewhere in Treasuries, markets found themselves scrambling to price in a “HFL” moment — that is, rates that are going Higher, getting there Faster, and staying there Longer.

      This time around, the delay in investors accepting a more rapid reversal in the highly supportive approach for markets by central banks had little to do with the prior inclination of policymaking officials to weaken the anti-inflation policy message. This tendency had previously helped keep alive the hope of an immaculate soft landing and a rapid pivot away from a tightening liquidity regime.

      But since the late August Jackson Hole speech of Fed chair Jay Powell, the US central bank’s officials have been unusually consistent in stating their unconditional commitment to battle unacceptably high inflation, as well as in conveying the policy implications.

      For policymakers and investors, there will be more bracing realities to digest in the months ahead.
      …

    3. Bonds
      Bond yields rise, 2-year Treasury hits 3.85% on higher Fed rate hike expectations
      Published Thu, Sep 15 2022 5:30 AM EDT
      Updated An Hour Ago
      Natasha Turak

      Short-term U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise Thursday as investors weighed the prospect of larger rate hikes from the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week.

      Bond yields pulled back slightly but remained elevated on the back of fresh economic data releases. That included better-than-expected retail sales and weekly jobless claims, which indicated the consumer may be faring better than anticipated. Import prices, however, saw a smaller drop than expected.

      The yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is among those most affected by Fed decisions, rose nearly 6 basis points to 3.841%, after its highest level since 2007.

      Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

      Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last up more than 2 basis points to 3.435%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was trading up 1 basis point at 3.481%.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/us-bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-ahead-of-fed-meeting.html

    4. The Financial Times
      Federal Reserve
      Fed’s faster ‘quantitative tightening’ adds to strain on bond market
      Accelerated balance sheet reduction threatens to intensify already fragile trading conditions
      Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell after the central bank’s May meeting: ‘I would stress how uncertain the effect is of shrinking the balance sheet’
      Ethan Wu and Kate Duguid in New York September 13 2022

      The Federal Reserve’s more rapid exit from crisis-era policies is set to place the $24tn US government bond market under extra strain, heightening concerns about the bedrock of the global financial system.

      The ease with which traders can get deals done in the Treasury market has declined to the lowest levels since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020, according to a Bloomberg index. Gaps between prices where traders buy and sell have yawned wider and huge moves in price, on a scale unthinkable even a year ago, have become commonplace.

      The Fed is this month accelerating the pace of winding down the nearly $9tn balance sheet it built up for more than a decade in an effort to cushion the economy from shocks. It aims to shrink the total by $95bn a month — double the August pace.

      As a result, “we could have a problem of liquidity stress in the banking system,” said New York University economist Viral Acharya. “And whenever banks are stressed, it usually spreads over to non-banks and Treasury markets and other [funding] markets.”

      Bank of America has described Treasury market strains as “arguably . . . one of the greatest threats to global financial stability today, potentially worse than the housing bubble of 2004-2007.”
      …

      1. LIVE UPDATES
        Updated Thu, Sep 15 2022
        12:39 PM EDT
        Stocks sink as Wall Street’s rebound attempt falters, Nasdaq drops 1%
        Jesse Pound
        Tanaya Macheel
        August retail sales post an unexpected 0.3% increase; weekly jobless claims hit 213,000

        U.S. stocks fell in choppy trading on Thursday as investors mulled over several economic reports that showed a muddy picture of the U.S. economy.

        The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.4%, while the S&P 500 fell 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 158 points, or 0.5%.

        Shares of Adobe fell 13% after the company announced a $20 billion deal to buy Figma, weighing on the Nasdaq. Oil giant Chevron dropped 2%, hurting the Dow.

        Financial stocks outperformed, with Goldman Sachs rising 1.3% and JPMorgan climbing 1%.

        On Thursday, initial jobless claims came in better than expected, but import prices saw a smaller drop than estimates suggested. Retail sales beat expectations, but were negative when excluding autos. Manufacturing data also showed a slowing economy. While those reports suggest that the U.S. consumer sector is holding its ground for now, they will do little to alleviate concerns about persistent inflation.

        Wall Street is coming off a choppy session in which the major averages posted modest gains, but made little dent in Tuesday’s massive sell-off. Wall Street is still trying to find its footing after a surprise increase in August’s consumer price index report sparked a decline of more than 1,200 points for the Dow on Tuesday.

        The stubbornly high inflation has led investors to fear that the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive with its rate hikes, raising the odds of a recession in the U.S.

        “The Fed needs to pick their poison. Do you continue strong ahead to tamp down inflation at the risk of recession, at the risk of increasing unemployment? It’s truly a dilemma, but I think that given what we have heard from the Fed the focus is squarely on inflation,” said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley.
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/14/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    1. Remember how much deeper the housing market CR8R became back in 2008, when it fully came to light how much skin Wall Street investment banks had in the housing market?

      I wonder how long it will take for that scenario to play out in the current episode.

  26. Community in Parker, Colorado offering a Paired Home option starting LOW $500k
    Sep 15, 2022 🏠 Beautiful community in Parker Colorado offering a Paired Home option with homes starting in 👀 LOW $500k 👀

    👉 Plan 1468 I 1,468 SF I 3 Bed I 2.5 Bath I 2 Car Garage
    Starting Price: $519,990
    *subject to change per builders price and options

    👉 Plan 1754 I 1,754 I 3 Bed I Den I Loft I 2.5 Bath I 2 Car Garage
    Starting Price: $534,990
    *subject to change per builders price and options

    LOTS OF BUILDER INCENTIVES – INCLUDING RATE BUYDOWN OPTIONS

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7QKGnaF7p8

    1 minute.

    1. “Paired home option” == half a duplex.

      Meanwhile you can get a nice single wide near the beach, including a dozen years of lot rent, for half what she’s quoting.

  27. Boise Idaho Real Estate Market Update
    Sep 14, 2022 High temps are cooling here in the Treasure Valley and we are also seeing a cooling down of the housing market. While interest rates still pose a challenge, other market conditions have continued to favor buyers — slower price growth, more options, and more time to decide before submitting an offer. Speaking of time, homes that sold in August spent an average of 29 days on the market before having an accepted offer, a much more normal market time compared to the 14 days average in August 2021.

    We have seen an increase in listed homes with 2,374 homes available for purchase at the end of August, allowing buyers who were sidelined when the market was ultra-competitive to resume shopping for their next home.

    Inventory jumped up as demand cooled in recent months, but it held steady at 2.8 months in July and August. A balanced market, or one that doesn’t favor buyers or sellers, is typically 4-6 months of supply.

    So, what does this mean for buyers and sellers?

    Fall may be the best time to purchase a home, and this year is looking especially attractive since there are more options available, more time to make decisions, and home prices have trended down.

    Homeowners are enjoying record high equity, and despite the recent decrease in home prices, sellers are still receiving great values for their homes. The market has normalized and isn’t nearly as competitive, so if you list your home for sale, don’t expect bidding wars, offers waiving all contingencies, and the home to go under contract within a few days. However, there are still things you can do to stand out. Ask me how we’ll market your listing, give our expertise on pricing strategy, and what incentives you can offer to attract as many buyers as possible.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30jcMp2dxO0

    2 minutes.

    1. I have been to Boise recently for the first time since the pandemic started. There is a LOT of new real estate development there, both CRE and housing.

    2. “We have seen an increase in listed homes with 2,374 homes available for purchase at the end of August, allowing buyers who were sidelined when the market was ultra-competitive to resume shopping for their next home.”

      Sounds like all those out of towners are bailing like rats jumping off a sinking ship. 🐁 🐀 🚢 ⚓

    3. “Homeowners are enjoying record high equity, and despite the recent decrease in home prices,…”

      Correct me if I am wrong, but don’t decreasing home prices combined with leverage tend to result in vanishing equity and increased underwaterness?

      1. “…don’t decreasing home prices combined with leverage tend to result in vanishing equity and increased underwaterness?”

        That’s pre- “no dumbass left behind” math though. Now schools teach that it’s always a good time to buy or sell a home.

        I just moved out of Boise for better work elsewhere and will miss a lot about it, except for the stupidity of the last couple years. I was all set to buy sometime after the 2019 peak prices cratered, but didn’t expect stimmiez and ZIRPs to screw me.

  28. New York Times — Florida Flies 2 Planeloads of Migrants to Martha’s Vineyard (9/14/2022):

    “About 50 migrants unexpectedly arrived by plane on Martha’s Vineyard on Wednesday, local officials said, escalating a tactic in which Republican-led states have shipped busloads of migrants to liberal bastions like Washington and New York to protest the significant rise in illegal immigration under President Biden.

    The migrant group, which included children, arrived on two planes around 3 p.m. without any warning, said State Senator Julian Cyr, a Massachusetts Democrat representing Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

    Taryn M. Fenske, the communications director for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, said the two flights were part of a state program to transport undocumented immigrants to so-called sanctuary destinations. This year the Florida Legislature set aside $12 million for the transportation program.

    “States like Massachusetts, New York and California will better facilitate the care of these individuals who they have invited into our country by incentivizing illegal immigration through their designation as ‘sanctuary states’ and support for the Biden administration’s open border policies,” Ms. Fenske said in a statement.

    https://archive.ph/sU13r

    Yahoo News — NYT reporter slammed for calling Obama’s 60th birthday party low-risk due to ‘sophisticated, vaccinated crowd’ (8/9/2021):

    “A New York Times reporter is being slammed by critics after opining that former President Barack Obama’s birthday party was a low COVID-19 risk due to the “sophisticated, vaccinated” guest list.

    This weekend a clip of Annie Karni, a White House correspondent for the Times speaking on CNN went viral on social media because some believe she was making excuses to justify Obama throwing a party amidst concerns about the delta variant.

    https://news.yahoo.com/nyt-reporter-slammed-calling-obama-220842756.html

    1. This year the Florida Legislature set aside $12 million for the transportation program.

      Hopefully more will be apportioned.

      1. If the federal government and Congress and Border Patrol were to actually scrutinize the legitimacy of these asylum claimants, and enforce the border, the majority of these people would be turned back before entering the United States.

        Not that that will happen anytime soon, if ever.

        What Real Journalists and other NPC Blue Checkmarks never discuss, is what is a reasonable limit to granting asylum claims? A few thousand a year? 10 million? The entire population of Central America?

        See also: the collapse of Ancient Rome.

        2. If FL and TX gov joined up and started a fund it would be overwhelmed with so many donations that they would run out of busses and planes to load up. Those nasty hacks in Chicago, NY, and DC would be begging for border control.

    1. Look at the long term chart. It’s got a long way to go down to complete the classic twin peaks formation. A long way.

      People drowning in debt and struggling to put gas in the car and groceries on the table do not use much lumber.

  30. I’m having lunch next week with the friend who told me back on March 1 that interest rates wouldn’t go up.

    2. You could share this article:
      ——————————————
      Your guide to a better future
      Money Mortgages
      Mortgage Interest Rates for Sept. 15, 2022: Rates Trend Higher
      Today a few major mortgage rates crept higher in the market for a home loan, see how your payments might be affected by inflation.
      Justin Jaffe
      Sept. 15, 2022 6:00 a.m. PT
      5 min read

      A handful of important mortgage rates moved up Thursday. The average 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgage rates both were higher. The average rate of the most common type of variable-rate mortgage, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage, also increased.

      Though mortgage rates have been rather consistently going up since the start of this year, what happens next depends on whether inflation continues to climb or begins to retreat. Interest rates are dynamic and unpredictable — at least on a daily or weekly basis — and they respond to a wide variety of economic factors. Right now, they’re particularly sensitive to inflation and the prospect of a US recession.

      With so much uncertainty in the market, if you’re looking to buy a home, trying to time the market may not play to your favor. If inflation rises and rates climb, this could translate to higher interest rates and steeper monthly mortgage payments. For this reason, you may have better luck locking in a lower mortgage interest rate sooner rather than later. No matter when you decide to shop for a home, it’s always a good idea to seek out multiple lenders to compare rates and fees to find the best mortgage for your specific situation.
      30-year fixed-rate mortgages

      The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 6.19%, which is an increase of 11 basis points from one week ago.
      …
      https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/mortgages/mortgage-interest-rates-for-sep-15-2022-rates-trend-higher/

          3. In March, she was fantasizing about selling for a 60% gain in 2 years but couldn’t figure out where to move in order to pocket some of the money. Texas was out of the question because of its backwards attitude towards women. I’m not kidding. She also jabbed her two under 10yo children at first chance.

  31. The Dow…. it cratering.🤣
    Silver…. it’s cratering.🤣🤣
    Gold…. it’s cratering.🤣🤣🤣
    Housing…. it’s cratering.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Raleigh, NC Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Debt Crippled Speculators Panic And Inventory Soars Across The Carolinas

    https://www.movoto.com/nc/27603/market-trends/

    As one national broker conceded, “Houses are investments for people who can’t do math.”

  32. The Globalists are masters at diversion from the very real deliberate and pre planned crimes against humanity this group of predators are guilty of.

    Dr Breggin does a good job of debunking the concept of” Mass Formation Psychosis”
    as being a totally made up concept, without scientific basic, as a diversion from
    Predators committing very real crimes against humanity. .
    Currently, as one diversion after another another fills the main stream news, a lethal fake vaccine is still on the market , , ,,with the FDA approving more applications of this failed technology, without even requiring trials.

    The cover up of all these deaths and injuries by saying cause of death unknown, or creating a new disease called ” Sudden Death Syndrome “, is diversion.
    But Mass Formation Psychosis is a attempt to divert to blaming the masses for some kind of psychosis they have, so you won’t look at the predators inflicting the crimes on humans.
    The pandemic was launched based on a fear mongering campaign . Than the criminals introduced a campaign of punishment of vaccine mandates or you could lose your job , or not be able to engage in normal activities. This is force and fear with punishment, not mass psychosis of population.
    The mass Campaign by Biden and fake news that the unvaccinated were guilty of being the cause of the continued Covid Pandemic was fraud.

    Thousands of Dr and Scientists were censored who disputed the Covid narratives, deplatformed, slandered and attacked. Working Drs were threatened with job loss if they didn’t comply with the killer hospital protocols, with obstruction of medications that actually cured Covid easy, like Ivermectin.
    And now this criminal enemy diverts with War and withdraw of energy and food as the next attack on populations of the world by taking that which sustains civilizations.
    Climate Change lockdowns based on a unproven narrative that co2 causes climate change.
    This is another false attempt to make humans the bad guys, to justify mass elimination of humans to save the planet.
    A justification for mass destruction of small and medium business so the culprits become more powerful and monopolize everything.
    This is a Rockerfeller model of mass destruction of competition, to rule.
    The Stakeholders plan to take over the World by employing weapons of mass destruction , under the fraud of global emergencies to destroy by fear and force.
    As long as these culprits aren’t brought to Justice , they will continue with their plan of a One World Order of human slaves , if you even survive their mass genocide.
    So, its conceivable that the enemy would put plants into the freedom moments to combat the Globalists Predators, that are there to divert obvious crimes of epic scale.

  33. “by the end of the year, we’ll know whether Portland is truly becoming more favorable to buyers”

    LOL. You could not give me property there.

    1. Years ago I watched a few episodes of “Portlandia” (someone told me it was “great”). I know that the show is satire, but dang, it made me think that you’d have to be nuts to live there.

  34. Russia Today — Putin predicts record trade with China (9/15/2022):

    “Economic cooperation between Russia and China will continue to strengthen, reaching new heights in the near future, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit while meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

    “Multifaceted ties between our countries are actively developing. Last year, the trade turnover increased by 35% and exceeded $140 billion,” Putin said, adding that in the first seven months of this year, the volume of mutual trade grew by another 25%.

    https://www.rt.com/business/562855-putin-predicts-record-china-trade/

    Unpossible. I was told that because of Western sanctions, the Russian economy would collapse without woke Disney, woke Starbucks, woke Marvel Comics, drag queen story hour, sex changes for minors, and monkeypox.

    1. Don’t forget, no more Mickey D’s! That should have brought them to their knees.

      And their airlines seem to be able to keep their western airliners flying. If the Iranians can reverse engineer parts for their airliners, I’m sure the Russians can as well.

      Meanwhile, the Chicoms and the Russians continue to work on a joint wide body airliner: the CR929.

      1. reverse engineer parts

        They wouldn’t have to. Plenty of countries that we will sell to will sell to them at a markup. Already being done with oil.

  35. Remember Idaho’s #1 builder, several weeks back they had ~400 move in ready homes, today it’s 510.

    Sorry Jeffree for more stress, but prices in Idaho, and Kolob, are falling. Looks like you paid $219,900 in 2018. Lower your price.

    1. I have a relative who was trying to sell as the previous crash was starting. He already had closed on his new house (company move) and he wasn’t getting any offers. I suggested that he undercut everyone in the neighborhood. He hated the idea, as he didn’t to “give it away”.

      I told him that if he didn’t sell it now, that when he finally did, he would have to bring a check to closing, instead of getting one. He held out for a month, then did as I said. The realtor tried to talk him out of it, but having two mortgages to pay was weighing on him, so he did it. The house sold and he walked away with a check. He later thanked me when he saw prices collapse.

  38. “McDonald’s CEO Says Chicago ‘In Crisis’, Urges City Leaders To Address Surge In Crime”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mcdonalds-ceo-says-chicago-crisis-urges-city-leaders-address-surge-crime

    (snip snip snip snip snip)

    Kempczinski made the comments during a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago luncheon on Wednesday but stated that the company will not be deterred by the surge in violence, homelessness, and drug abuse throughout the city, and still plans to stay put.

    The CEO said the company will move its innovation center from Romeoville to its West Loop headquarters.

    However, Kempczinski said the burger chain had been battling chronic crime issues which have in turn made it harder for the chain to recruit new workers, Chicago Business reported.

    “There’s a general sense out there that our city is in crisis,” he said.

    “The truth is, it’s more difficult today for me to convince [a McDonald’s executive] to relocate to Chicago from one of our other offices than it was just a few years ago. It’s more difficult for me to recruit a new employee to McDonald’s to join us in Chicago than it was in the past.”

    While noting his love for the city, the CEO said that city leaders have failed to come up with a clear plan to address the ongoing issues regarding rising crime.

    No Clear Plan From City Leaders
    “How many people—with a show of hands here—would say they knew what the plan is? Exactly what are we doing? What are the metrics? How are we going to track progress? I mean, this is what you do in business, day in and day out. You have a plan, you have a set of vectors, you have milestones, and you track progress. How are we doing on that?” Kempczinski asked, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

    McDonald’s operates roughly 400 restaurants in Chicago, covering almost every neighborhood, according to Chicago Business. The company said it has contributed approximately $2 billion in the 12 months ending June 30, 2022 to the economy of Cook County, Illinois.

    Kempczinski’s comments come as data from the Chicago Police Department from the start of 2022 through Sept. 11 (pdf) shows murders were down 15 percent year over year. However, thefts are up 65 percent, robberies are up 18 percent, and burglaries are up 28 percent.

    In total, the number of criminal complaints is up 38 percent year-on-year and up 19 percent compared with the same period in 2019.

    “We see every single day in our restaurants what’s happening at society at large,” said Kempczinski, adding that the situation was not something that McDonald’s can solve on its own.

    “We need to be able to do it with the public sector as well,” he said.

    So far this year, a number of big companies including Boeing and construction firm Caterpillar have announced that they are moving their headquarters out of Chicago.

    In June the richest person in Illinois, billionaire Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel, announced he was moving his hedge fund firm’s headquarters from Chicago to Miami, Florida, citing rising crime.

    McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski has called on government and business leaders in Chicago to do more to address safety concerns in the city amid a wave of crime and violence.

  40. BREAKING NEWS!

    (just kidding)

    “Median mortgage payment up 66% from a year ago at today’s average interest rate
    Rising rates and elevated home prices are pushing more would-be buyers out of the market”

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/median-mortgage-payment-66-percent-year-ago-todays-average-interest-rate

    (snipity snip snip)

    The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage topped 6% this week for the first time since late 2008, and the latest data shows the staggering impact a combination of rising rates and elevated home prices has on home affordability.

    After Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average rate for the benchmark 30-year note is now at 6.02%, Realtor.com manager of economic research George Ratiu ran the numbers and found that the median mortgage payment is now $2,100 — a 66% surge from just a year ago.

    sing Realtor.com’s latest list price for August of $435,000 and assuming a 20% down payment, Ratiu plugged in today’s mortgage rate and discovered the eye-popping payment hike over this time last year when rates were still under 3%.

    The median $2,100 payment does not even include additional housing costs such as homeowners association fees and property taxes.

    Ratiu called the increase “significant,” telling FOX Business it shows “the incredible impact that interest rates — specifically mortgage rates — have had on a buyer’s ability to finance a home right now.”

    Not only have interest rates more than doubled over the past year, but home prices also remain elevated due to low inventory. Ratiu said even with a significant slowdown in the market and some sellers slashing their asking price, home prices are still up roughly 14% from a year ago.

    These factors are putting pressure on the housing market and causing more buyers to bow out.

    A slew of new economic data published earlier this month shows the sector is starting to slow considerably: Home builders’ sentiment about the industry plunged to the lowest level in two years, buyers are retreating from the market as they cancel home sales at the fastest pace since 2020, and mortgage applications for purchases continue to slide.

    “In essence,” Ratiu says, “the answer from the American homebuyer is pretty loud and clear, and that is: ‘We are tapped out.’”

    He added, “I think these rates have absolutely put a ceiling on many Americans’ ability to afford a home, and I think it’s particularly challenging for first-time homebuyers.”

    1. ‘I think these rates have absolutely put a ceiling on many Americans’ ability to afford a home’

      And the prices George.

      1. Once home prices adjust downwards to reflect higher rates, they will become much more affordable. People’s incomes don’t automatically adjust upwards to afford higher mortgage rates, so the adjustment ends up landing in the form of lower home prices.

        Too bad homeowners like George will have to pay for the affordability improvement.

        1. People’s incomes don’t automatically adjust upwards

          “People” couldn’t afford the house before the rate increase, they bought to get rich. It’s like spending a mint on your credit card dating a new love interest. When the fantasy vaporizes you act like you’re broke. You probably are, and stupid as well.

      2. “And the prices George.”

        You got that right.

        Of all the things that make me tell my kid not to buy a decent home in a decent neighborhood today, a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6% damn sure isn’t one of them.

    2. “Median mortgage payment up 66% from a year ago at today’s average interest rate
      Rising rates and elevated home prices are pushing more would-be buyers out of the market”

      Fake math. Show me one individual U.S. homedebtor whose mortgage payment went up by 66% since a year ago, and I will show you some Florida swampland that I would like to sell you.

      A more likely consequence of the mortgage rate increase is to see housing market values drop in the amount of something like 1-1/1.66 = 40%.

  41. (say it ain’t so …)

    “World Bank warns global recession risk rising as interest rates soar higher
    Global growth is ‘slowing sharply,’ as central banks raise rates: World Bank”

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/world-bank-warns-global-recession-risk-rising-higher-interest-rates

    (snip snip)

    The global economy faces a growing threat of recession next year as central banks across the world raise interest rates at an aggressive clip in a bid to tame inflation, the World Bank said in a new report.

    Growth in the world’s three largest economies — the U.S., China and the European Union — has already slowed sharply this year, the Washington-based institution said.

    It warned that even a “moderate hit” to the global economy over the next year could drag it into a recession.

    “Global growth is slowing sharply, with further slowing likely as more countries fall into recession,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “My deep concern is that these trends will persist, with long-lasting consequences that are devastating for people in emerging markets and developing economies.”

    The World Bank noted that the synchronized interest rate hikes underway globally are likely to continue well into next year but might not be sufficient to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels.

    In the U.S., Federal Reserve policymakers have lifted the benchmark interest rate four consecutive times and are poised to approve another mega-sized rate hike next week. Central banks in England and the European Union have also raised rates.

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that officials will continue to raise rates, even if it drives unemployment higher, rattling markets.

    Investors expect central banks to raise interest rates to almost 4% next year, although rates could eventually climb as high as 6%, the report showed.

    But unless supply chain disruptions dissipate and labor market pressures subside, the core global inflation rate, which excludes the more volatile measurement of energy, will likely hover around 5% in 2022, the World Bank said. That is nearly double the pre-pandemic average.

    The study estimated that 2023 global gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in a country, will slow to 0.5% after record expansion last year. That would meet most definitions of a technical recession because average global incomes would be falling.

    “Policymakers could shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production,” Malpass said. “Policies should seek to generate additional investment and improve productivity and capital allocation, which are critical for growth and poverty reduction.”

    The World Bank encouraged central bankers to clearly communicate their policy actions, suggesting that doing so could help them avoid a recession.

    1. With so many doom-and-gloomers constantly wringing their hands, the world is at risk of running out of hand lotion.

    2. Covid -> money printers go brrrrt –> free money handed out (even in basket case Argentina) –> inflation starts –> add manufactured energy crisis –> inflation gets worse –> housing bubble pops —> economies collapse ==> Great Reset

  42. “FedEx issues ominous warning about the global economy, shares tumble”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-ex-economic-warning-after-hours-movers-september-14-220428377.html

    (snip snip)

    Scroll back up to restore default view.
    Yahoo Finance
    FedEx issues ominous warning about the global economy, shares tumble
    Seana Smith
    Seana Smith·Anchor
    Thu, September 15, 2022 at 3:04 PM·2 min read
    In this article:

    BOWL
    -3.85%

    FDX
    -0.07%

    TXN
    -1.57%

    AMZN
    -1.77%

    UPS
    -3.12%

    FedEx (FDX) withdrew its full year earnings guidance and reported preliminary first quarter results that fell short of Wall Street estimates, sending shares tumbling in extended trading on Thursday.

    “Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.” FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam warned in the release. “We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations.”

    FedEx shares fell as much as 15% in after hours trade.

    Cost-cutting measures outlined by FedEx include reducing flights, temporarily parking aircraft, closing more than 90 FedEx office locations, and deferring hiring plans.

    “We are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable costs, and implement structural cost-reduction initiatives,” Subramaniam added.

    Adjusted earnings for the company’s fiscal first quarter were $3.44 per share, missing Wall Street’s estimate of $5.10, on revenue of $23.2 billion. Back in June, the company said it expected full-year earnings per share to fall in a range of $22.50-$24.50.

    The preliminary results from FedEx, which is viewed as a bellwether for the global economy, sent shares of UPS (UPS) and Amazon (AMZN) lower in after hours trading; UPS shares lost more than 5% while Amazon was down around 2% late Thursday.

  43. “Typical monthly payment for a new vehicle hits record $743
    The median number of weeks of income needed to buy a new car also went up”

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/typical-monthly-payment-new-vehicle-hits-record-743-dollars

    (snip)

    Typical monthly payments for a new car are getting steeper, according to the latest data from Cox Automotive and Moody’s Analytics.

    The average new car payment hit a record high of $743 in August, the Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index released Thursday showed. That figure is up 1.4% from $733 in July.

    Kelly Blue Book reported earlier in the week that the average purchase price in the U.S. for a new vehicle rose for a fifth consecutive month, hitting a record-high of $48,301 in August. It climbed 10.8% from August 2021.

    According to the Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics data, a median of 42.6 weeks of income was necessary to purchase a new car in August, compared to 37.7 weeks at the same time last year.

    Increased interest rates have contributed to the average new vehicle being less affordable, the Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics report said.

    The prices of new vehicles have continued to climb, both month-over-month and year-over-year, according to the latest consumer price index data put out Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Labor.

    From a year ago in August, the average cost of new vehicles went up 10.1%, with the prices of new cars and new trucks rising 10.9% and 9.8%, respectively. The prices of new vehicles increased 0.6% from July, according to the unadjusted data.

    The new-car market has been hit hard by the semiconductor shortage and supply chain disruptions for over a year, resulting in lower prod
    Meanwhile, the prices of used cars and trucks are about 7.8% higher than they were in the same month of 2021. On a monthly basis, they actually dropped 0.4%, however.

  44. Updated Thu, Sep 15 2022
    5:01 PM EDT
    Nasdaq drops more than 1% as market comeback stumbles, Dow closes at lowest level in two months
    Jesse Pound
    Tanaya Macheel

    U.S. stocks dropped in choppy trading on Thursday as investors mulled over several economic reports that showed a muddy picture of the U.S. economy.

    The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.43% to close at 11,552.36, while the S&P 500 fell 1.13% to 3,901.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed but still dropped 173.27 points, or 0.56%, to 30,961.82 for its lowest close since July 14.

    Shares of Adobe weighed on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The software stock lost more than 16% after the company announced a $20 billion deal to buy Figma. The weakness spread to other tech stocks, with Apple falling 1.9% and Salesforce sliding 3.4%.
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/14/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

  45. The governor of Illinois on Wednesday issued an emergency disaster proclamation after several hundred illegal immigrants were bused from the U.S.–Mexico border to Illinois.

    Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, issued an executive order to send 75 members of the state National Guard to assist in making sure “all state resources are available to support asylum seekers arriving nearly daily to Chicago from the state of Texas.”

    The order also “enables the Illinois Emergency Management Agency (IEMA) and other state agencies, in close coordination with the City of Chicago, Cook County, and other local governments, to ensure the individuals and families receive the assistance they need,” according to Pritzker’s order. “This includes transport, emergency shelter and housing, food, health screenings, medical assessments, treatments, and other necessary care and services.”

    “Today, I signed a disaster proclamation allowing the state to speed up the procurement of the immediate resources needed to help Chicago, Cook County, and other jurisdictions provide humanitarian assistance to the asylum seekers who are being sent to our state with no official advance notice by the Governor of Texas,” Pritzker said in a statement on Wednesday.

    He added that “while other states may be treating these vulnerable families as pawns, here in Illinois, we are treating them as people.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/illinois-governor-issues-emergency-disaster-over-illegal-immigrants-bused-from-texas_4732746.html

  46. I spoke with the founder of a 501c3 based in Portland this morning. Its forestation and wildlife conservation efforts are in Indonesia, Madagascar and Brazil. Grant commitments aren’t being honored.

    The quadruple-jabbed Plaxovid-popping founder, who’s a Yale-trained MD, has also been sick with COVID for 7 days and has been experiencing a flare up of an autonomic disorder stemming from a box jellyfish sting 11 years ago. Apparently, Madagascar, like the rest of Africa, was spared COVID’s rampage for some “inexplicable” reason.

  49. Are you getting tired of reading Wall Street’s porcine beauticians’ predictions of higher stock prices, only to see actual share prices slide ever deeper into the CR8R?

    1. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance
      FedEx issues ominous warning about the global economy, shares tumble
      Seana Smith
      Thu, September 15, 2022 at 3:04 PM·2 min read
      In this article:

      FedEx (FDX) withdrew its full year earnings guidance and reported preliminary first quarter results that fell short of Wall Street estimates, sending shares tumbling in extended trading on Thursday.

      “Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.” FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam warned in the release. “We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations.”

      FedEx shares fell as much as 15% in after hours.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-ex-economic-warning-after-hours-movers-september-14-220428377.html

    4. Marketmind: Unstoppable Dollar
      By Reuters
      Sept. 16, 2022
      U.S. News & World Report
      FILE PHOTO: U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File PhotoReuters
      A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

      Disagreement over interest rate increases is discernible.

      Two ECB policymakers gave diverging views about the size of future rate hikes, pointing to some dissension over whether last week’s unprecedented 75 basis points rise should be repeated.

      Investor angst about the risks of a growth slowdown is evident.

      Germany’s bond yield curve briefly inverted on Thursday, while German bond yields scaled new 11-year highs at 1.539%.

      But there seems to be little stopping the mightly dollar, already up 15% against a basket of currencies this year. Fed funds futures now point to a 25% chance of a 100 basis point hike at next week’s meeting.

      That is giving support to dollar bulls, who have already battered the euro and yen to two-decade lows and sterling to its weakest in nearly 40 years.

      Overnight, the World Bank came out with gloomy news.

      It warned that the world may be edging toward a global recession as central banks across the world simultaneously increase rates to combat persistent inflation.
      …
      https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-09-16/marketmind-unstoppable-dollar

    5. Updated Fri, Sep 16 2022 12:22 AM EDT
      Stock futures fall as Wall Street heads for losing week, weighs FedEx warning
      Sarah Min

      U.S. stock futures fell Friday morning as Wall Street headed toward a losing week, and traders absorbed an ugly earnings warning from FedEx.

      Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped by 181 points, or 0.58%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.75% and 0.93%, respectively.

      Shares of FedEx plunged 15% in extended trading after the shipments company withdrew its full-year guidance, and said it will implement cost-cutting initiatives to contend with soft global shipment volumes as “macroeconomic trends significantly worsened.”

      The three major averages were on pace to notch their fourth losing week in five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.70% this week, while the S&P 500 is 4.08% lower. The Nasdaq Composite is down 4.62%, headed toward its worst weekly loss since June.

      During the regular session Thursday, the Dow dropped 173 points, or 0.56%, for its lowest close since July 14. The Nasdaq Composite slid 1.43%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.13%.

      Traders are concerned that markets will retest June lows after a surprisingly hot reading in August’s consumer price index report indicated an increasingly difficult pathway to bring down inflation by the Federal Reserve.

      “They might have a hard choice to make,” iCapital’s Anastasia Amoroso said Thursday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”

      “Before they were saying, we’re going to try to have a soft landing and bring down inflation. Now they may have to make a choice. It’s either a soft landing or bringing down inflation. In other words, they may have to engineer more of a crackdown on economic growth to bring down inflation,” she added.

      On the economic front, traders are expecting the latest consumer sentiment data on 10 a.m. ET Friday.
      —————————————————–
      3 Hours Ago
      U.S. 2-year Treasury yield briefly touches 3.9%

      The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note briefly reached 3.901%, before pulling back slightly to 3.8921% in Asia’s morning trade.

      That’s the highest level since 2007. Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

      The 10-year Treasury yield was last at 3.4567% after touching 3.459%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 3.4743%.

      — Abigail Ng
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    6. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Stocks stutter as fears over economic growth deepen
      Sterling slips back after disappointing UK retail sales data raise concerns on imminent recession
      People walk along a street in the city centre of York, UK
      The quantity of goods bought in the UK fell 1.6% between July and August, government data show
      Ian Johnston an hour ago

      European and Asian equities slipped lower on Friday after a week in which disappointing data releases have hardened investors’ fears of higher interest rates and slower economic growth.

      The regional Stoxx 600 lost 1 per cent at the open while Germany’s Dax slipped 1.4 per cent. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.9 per cent and Japan’s Topix fell 0.6 per cent.

      A mixed array of data have weighed on investor confidence this week, with US inflation figures coming in hotter than anticipated on Tuesday, forcing investors to crank up their expectations of interest rate rises when Federal Reserve policymakers meet next week.

      Strong US employment data published on Thursday added strength to fears the Fed would continue with its aggressive rate tightening cycle. This led the broad S&P 500 down 1.2 per cent on Thursday to its lowest level since mid-July. Futures contracts tracking the benchmark index were down 0.8 per cent on Friday morning.

      Markets are now pricing in a one-in-four chance of a full percentage point rise next week, with a third consecutive 0.75 percentage rise the most likely outcome.

      The prospect of higher interest rates and dampening growth prospects have led the dollar to recoup losses against other currencies, as investors seek refuge in the world’s reserve currency.

      The dollar was up 0.1 per cent against a basket of six currencies on Friday morning, after the euro slipped below parity once again, by 0.1 per cent to $0.99.
      …

    1. Sagar Singh Setia
      Sep 14
      7 min read
      Checkmate!
      Bond Markets have nowhere to escape after the Fed’s checkmate!
      Photo by Felix Mittermeier on Unsplash

      “While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labour market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”- Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, Jackson Hole 2022.

      In the game of Chess, the player’s utmost aim is to propel checkmate on their opponent. Checkmate is the ultimate move where the player’s king is in check, and there is no escape or defence possible.

      At Jackson Hole 2022, we witnessed a checkmate by the Fed, and the bond markets were dumbstruck to listen to Jerome Powell’s eight minutes of super hawkishness.

      Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was a stunner in all aspects. Quoting Paul Volcker and his lessons from the 1980s, Powell seems to be worried and determined at the same time. I would like to draw your attention to the third lesson that Powell spoke about in his speech:

      (emphasis added throughout by the author)

      “That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.”
      …
      https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/checkmate-52472415b216

    2. Opinion Letters
      The Phillips Curve Is Back From the Dead
      The idea of an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment won’t seem to go away.
      Sept. 12, 2022 1:58 pm ET
      The Federal Reserve building in Washington, Aug. 23.
      Photo: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg News

      About a half-century ago, my investment and economic mentor, Bradford F. Story, remarked that leaders at the Federal Reserve and Treasury would never succeed until they disabused themselves of the Phillips curve, which he called “a pretty idea with no grounding in reality.”

      It is thus disheartening to read Jason Furman’s op-ed “Inflation and the Scariest Economics Paper of 2022” (Sept. 8). It is built on the unspoken assumption that policies relying on the veracity of the Phillips curve will determine the future course of U.S. inflation. The curve, which claims to model an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, has been disproved a dozen times. Yet it lives on in the minds of the Keynesians who dominate academia and government.
      …
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-phillips-curve-economics-inflation-unemployment-fed-policy-11662997809

      1. “The curve, which claims to model an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, has been disproved a dozen times.”

        It’s pretty hilarious how nobody who lives and works in the real world seems to believe what academic economists take as Gospel truth, including Jerome Powell.

        Do academic economists ever doubt their own concensus beliefs?

        1. Spelling correction:

          con·sen·sus
          /kənˈsensəs/
          noun
          a general agreement.
          “a consensus view”
          synonyms: agreement, harmony, concord, like-mindedness, concurrence, consent, common consent, accord, unison, unity, unanimity, oneness, solidarity, concert, general opinion/view, majority opinion/view, common opinion/view

          1. Groupthink is the Achilles heel of academic consensus.

            group·think
            /ˈɡro͞opˌTHiNGk/
            noun
            the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility.
            “there’s always a danger of groupthink when two leaders are so alike”

        2. The Financial Times
          FedEx Corp
          FedEx founder Fred Smith steps aside as chief after 50 years
          One of corporate America’s longest-serving executives will stay on as executive chair at logistics giant
          Fred Smith, FedEx founder, at the White House in 2018
          Fred Smith, who plans to remain at FedEx as executive chair, is worth more than $5bn, according to Forbes estimates
          Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson in New York March 28 2022

          Fred Smith was an undergraduate at Yale in 1965 when he first floated the notion of a hub-and-spoke delivery network, using a dedicated fleet of jets flying at night to keep pace with the needs of technology-driven businesses for time-sensitive shipments.

          The economics paper that sowed the seed for Federal Express reputedly earned him a mediocre grade. Yet by Monday, when Smith announced that Raj Subramaniam will succeed him as chief executive, FedEx had become a global logistics giant, with $84bn in annual revenue, 600,000 employees and a $60bn market capitalisation.

          Smith, who plans to remain as executive chair, is worth more than $5bn, by Forbes estimates, and has established himself as one of corporate America’s longest-serving and most politically connected executives.
          …

    3. Federal Reserve
      The Economy
      Taming Inflation Will Cost Jobs. Here’s How Many.
      By Lisa Beilfuss
      Updated September 8, 2022 / Original September 2, 2022

      When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that tightening monetary policy will bring “some pain” to households and businesses, he pushed back on the idea that the central bank would flinch in its inflation fight. But how much pain is the Fed willing to inflict before it has no choice but to raise its inflation target?

      To quantify the amount of economic damage from the current tightening cycle—where rate hikes work on a lag of about a year, inflation is both supply and demand driven, and balance-sheet tightening is about to ramp up—Barron’s spoke with Joe Brusuelas, RSM’s chief economist. To estimate how high unemployment must rise to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target, Brusuelas puts a new twist on an old, and increasingly controversial, idea and concludes that the number of job losses might be higher than policy makers and investors appreciate.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-layoffs-recession-federal-reserve-51662143640

      1. Dumb question of the day: If the Fed increased its inflation target, wouldn’t bond yields adjust upwards in response, worsening the pain in the bond market?

        1. The pain of higher bond yields would carry over into the stock and housing markets, as all assets are risk assets in the post-QE era.

  51. Video: Biden Gets Lost On A Stage For Third Time In A Week

    by Steve Watson
    September 16th 2022, 6:02 am

    RNC Research
    @RNCResearch
    ·
    Where ya goin there Joe?

    https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1570575484882231296?s=20&t=cbC5XVmlXsbx6bSCJXRG_g

    Townhall.com
    @townhallcom
    ·
    Follow
    Joe Biden heads in the wrong direction.

    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1570120329099444224?s=20&t=8Uoy3HTiBq_qb7HTR0YbsA

    Benny Johnson
    @bennyjohnson
    ·
    Follow
    Joe Biden PANICS on stage trying to find exit— How is he always this lost?!

    https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1569431864984616960?s=20&t=KE8nzfAD1y5Yu8kYXD0u7A

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