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Absorption Of Brand-New Units Are Stalling, And The Effective Price Is Dramatically Reduced

A report from Bisnow New York. “Meridian Capital Group Senior Executive Managing Director David Schechtman noted he is working on a ‘broken’ condominium deal in Brooklyn upon which there is a $65M senior secured mortgage with $25M of equity behind it. ‘The sponsors are so pragmatic, they are offering if anyone will give them $5M of their $25M back, they will hand you the keys,’ he said. He expects there to be a ‘precipitous’ drop in values and there will be a larger wave of opportunity than following the events of 2008.”

The Lo-Down on New York. “Deals are becoming more common on the Lower East Side. There appear to be plenty of available rentals at Essex Crossing. According to StreetEasy, you can get three months free for any of eight apartments in ‘The Rollins’ (145 Clinton St.) A report from M.N.S. Real Estate shows that prices for non-doorman one bedroom units on the Lower East Side dropped 3.4% from August to September. The picture was similar in many sought after neighborhoods throughout the city. The average price for a 1-bedroom non-doorman apartment in this neighborhood last month was $2,425. Compared with last year at this time, rental prices on the LES are down 15.2%.”

The Bronx Times in New York. “Though Manhattan had the highest number of price drops last month, the Norwood area of the Bronx had the highest median percentage price drop with -39.6%, meaning the listing had a $78,800 price drop. Following not so closely behind was the Bronx’s Bedford Park-Fordham North with a -10.3% drop, meaning a drop of $33,433 on a listing, and the Steinway area of Queens with a -10.1% drop, a -101,000 decrease on the listing.”

“Two neighborhoods in the Bronx round out the top five with high median percentage price drops last month: the Melrose South-Mott Haven North with a 9.6% drop, meaning a $96,000 price drop in the area, and the Claremont-Bathgate area with an 8.4% drop, equaling a $200,000 price drop in the neighborhood.”

From Mortgage Professional America. “The National Multifamily Housing Council’s rent payment tracker found just under 80% of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by October 6. Jeffrey Adler, vice president at Yardi, agreed that more information is needed to paint a proper picture of the challenges in the multifamily space. Adler says occupancy in some of the major international gateway cities are seeing significant stress. ‘Class A lease ups are stalling,’ he said. ‘Absorption of brand-new units are stalling, and the effective price that those could have rented at is dramatically reduced.'”

“‘People value their personal credit scores, they value meeting their obligations, so they are meeting them to the extent that they can, but they are also taking actions to align their living arrangements with their means, and that is creating household destruction in downtown Chicago, San Francisco, LA and Seattle,’ said Adler.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Rents in central business districts in popular cities have been tumbling. San Francisco, where these rents are down 17% since the March peak, has been hardest hit, CoStar said. These district rents are down 9.2% in Boston and between 5% and 6% in New York, Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Landlords point out that even before the pandemic, renters were starting to move out of higher cost markets like New York City and San Francisco to places like Austin and Denver, where they could get more space for their money.”

“‘We’ve continued to see those patterns, but now they’re at a higher clip,’ said Bob Faith, chief executive of Greystar Real Estate Partners LLC in Charleston, S.C., the country’s largest multifamily landlord, with 693,000 units owned and managed globally. “

From WFLA in Florida. “While she calls moratoriums ‘crucial,’ Ida Eskamani with the Florida Housing Justice Alliance, also described those measures as short term solutions for a long term problem. ‘At the end of this year, folks are still going to owe thousands in unpaid rent,’ she explained. ‘So right now, we’re just kicking the can down the road.'”

The Miami Herald in Florida. “When hospitality development firm HES Group purchased a Midtown Miami lot in 2014, it planned to build a hotel. Monday, the company is putting the 1.02-acre site up for bid in a direct sale or joint-venture opportunity, said Francisco Arocha, the firm’s CEO. The mortgage on the lot at 3601 N. Miami Ave. is three weeks in arrears, and the mortgage holder has begun foreclosure proceedings, Arocha said, due to the pandemic’s severe impact on the hospitality industry. ‘The hospitality industry has been hit,’ Arocha said.”

“South Florida’s hospitality industry has been severely impacted by the pandemic. HES Group’s original predictions of an overall 50% drop in occupancy rates in its South Florida hotels have proven optimistic; in September, hotels experienced a 37% occupancy rate in Miami-Dade County, according to industry data firm STR. Across the market, employee furloughs have been widespread.”

The Bay Area Newsgroup in California. “A bankruptcy, mortgage default, and two federal legal cases have engulfed a big Fremont mixed-use development, a financial quagmire that has stalled construction on the prominently placed project. Mission Hills Square, a housing, retail, and restaurant project near Interstate 680 and Durham Road in Fremont, faces an uncertain future amid multiple formal proceedings.”

“On paper at least, the project looks like a slam dunk with its high-visibility location perched next to busy Interstate 680 and residential component at a time when housing is in high demand. Once complete, Mission Hills Square would total 148 residential units and include 54,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space. However, Mission Hills Square now lies fallow. In recent days, this news organization observed no indication of current — or recent — construction on the 12.6-acre development at 2501 Comack Road. Debris blocked a construction entrance. Graffiti was prominent.”

“Among the proceedings affecting the Mission Hills Square development and property: — The project’s principal owner, Fremont Hills Development, filed for bankruptcy on Oct. 9. — At least one lender has filed a notice of default on a mortgage provided to Fremont Hills. — Gadsden Properties, the owner of San Jose-based Fremont Hills Development, says it is the subject of a U.S. Justice Department criminal proceeding. — The Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a civil complaint alleging fraud and other violations against individuals and entities associated with the property’s ownership.”

“The defendants include Danghong ‘Jean’ Chen, an Atherton resident and San Jose attorney, along with her business partner and ex-husband, Jianyun ‘Tony’ Ye, who lives in Atherton. — A federal grand jury has indicted Chen and Ye for alleged visa fraud and other violations. ‘The complaint alleges that Chen and Ye secretly acquired and operated an EB-5 regional center, Golden State Regional Center, and later advised clients to invest in the center’s projects without disclosing their ownership interest,’ the SEC stated. The alleged scheme, according to the SEC, extended to Hong Kong in China.”

“It isn’t clear why Gadsden Properties was willing to pay $1.6 million per residential unit for the unfinished and unproven Mission Hills Square in February 2019. In November 2019, Gadsden warned that it was in dire straits. ‘Management has determined that there is substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern,’ Gadsden Properties stated in a quarterly SEC filing.”

From Yo Venice in California. “A recent study suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic may be driving rents down in Venice and the rest of the city. While the global coronavirus pandemic has impacted the economy, restaurants and elsewhere in Los Angeles, it is also impacting the housing market. Rent is down by 6.2% since the start of the pandemic. Year-over-year rent growth in Los Angeles currently stands at -7.4% compared to 0.8% at this time last year. Pasadena has seen the biggest rent drop in the metro, with a decline of 7.7%. On average two-bedrooms there cost $2,138, while one-bedrooms go for $1,609.”

From City Watch on California. “A congresswoman tweets ‘Cancel [rent].’ Others take the sentiment further, writing: ‘Every landlord is a fascist,’ ‘All landlords are evil scum,’ ‘Kill the landlords,’and ‘Landlords are the devil.’ Apart from social media postings like these, vilifying lessors has become common at rent-strike protests, such as the one in New York in which activists hurled furniture into the street.”

“As a Realtor for 35 years, I have assisted lessors and lessees in the Los Angeles area. I have learned it is not unusual for a tenant to have a substantially higher income than a property owner. I have viewed credit reports, W-2s, 1099s, and profit-and-loss statements that establish this fact. Admittedly my experiences are rarely with large, multi-unit buildings, but instead with single family dwellings which are often owned by mom-and-pop landlords. Many of these owners are ‘cash poor.'”

“In other words, they are barely able to meet their own family’s needs for food, housing, and other essentials. And this is before taking into account their rental property expenses, such as mortgage, property taxes, insurance, upkeep, and repairs. For these folks, receiving rent on time is crucial. It is how they cover their bills. When their rental income vanishes—as has been the case for many due to eviction moratoriums—these small landlords are left in disbelief and despair, confused as to why the government is forcing them to carry the financial burden of the pandemic on their already broken backs.”

“The government’s destruction of small landlords in 2020 will be calamitous for tenants in 2021 and beyond. There will likely be an outbreak of foreclosures and sell-offs by those who are unable to endure the eviction-moratorium storm. When the small landlords disappear, so does much of the affordable housing. Corporate investors, real estate conglomerates, and Wall Street vultures will swoop down for the kill, snapping up properties, remodeling them, and raising rents. In the end, communities will be left with fewer economical rentals, and the chasm between the rich and poor will be a little wider.”

“Although damage has already been done, there are ways to help struggling landlords. Politicians could: 1) cancel property taxes for needy landlords, 2) defer mortgage payments and foreclosures for all rental properties (not just those that are federally-backed, 3) allow all landlords access to forgivable PPP funds, and 4) establish programs that pay the rent for tenants who have been affected by the pandemic.”

The Wall Street Journal. “One of the largest residential properties in Montecito, Calif., a popular haven for wealthy, has sold for $63.25 million, about half of its original $125 million asking price, property records show. The roughly 240-acre property initially came on the market in 2014, The Wall Street Journal reported.”

The Nevada Independent. “Supreme Court Justice James Hardesty on Friday highlighted a Catch-22 that may stymie Nevada’s efforts to keep people in their homes during the pandemic: a federal eviction moratorium lasts to the end of the year, but federal funds to help renters must be used before the ban lifts. He noted that a legislatively approved eviction mediation program set to launch this week is backed by federal dollars that must be spent by the end of the calendar year, and then is scheduled to go away because it has no other set funding source.”

“‘There won’t be as much use this fall for the eviction program because of the presence of the CDC moratorium … and come January, there’ll be no moratorium but there’ll be no money to be able to handle eviction mediations,’ Hardesty said. ‘That seems to me to be a problem.'”

“He said Home Means Nevada, the entity that managed a foreclosure mediation program during the Great Recession and will manage the eviction mediation program, needs to set up a portal that can be used to schedule mediation and facilitate communication about settlements between tenants and landlords.”

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This Post Has 131 Comments

  1. ‘The sponsors are so pragmatic, they are offering if anyone will give them $5M of their $25M back, they will hand you the keys’

    Are we there yet?

    1. Not yet. Not close.

      The NYC market was so overinflated that it isn’t enough to wipe out equity. Some of the debt will have to be gone too.

      And they will do anything they can to prevent later-born savers and investors from being able to purchase assets at any price that might allow a decent future return.

      1. 5 million for (formerly) 65 million stack of airboxes? Kinda of a haircut seems to me. I’ll have more whopping cuts tomorrow.

        2. It assumes that someone other than the oligarchs they were built for has $5 million.

          Absent COVID-19, and its impact on cities, perhaps $2 million would work. But as it is?

      2. And they will do anything they can to prevent later-born savers and investors from being able to purchase assets at any price that might allow a decent future return.

        Their future depends on those people being their slaves…not free men who need nothing from them.

    2. Close.

      Keep in mine most of this property is encumbered with multiple liens, mortgages, and some other type of debt.

  2. ‘The Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a civil complaint alleging fraud and other violations against individuals and entities associated with the property’s ownership’

    Eat yer crowz jingle.

  4. ‘A congresswoman tweets ‘Cancel [rent].’ Others take the sentiment further, writing: ‘Every landlord is a fascist,’ ‘All landlords are evil scum,’ ‘Kill the landlords,’and ‘Landlords are the devil.’ Apart from social media postings like these, vilifying lessors has become common at rent-strike protests, such as the one in New York in which activists hurled furniture into the street’

    Note to self: don’t buy real estate in socialist sh$t-holes.

    Here’s this coordinated REIC crap again:

    ‘When the small landlords disappear, so does much of the affordable housing. Corporate investors, real estate conglomerates, and Wall Street vultures will swoop down for the kill, snapping up properties, remodeling them, and raising rents. In the end, communities will be left with fewer economical rentals, and the chasm between the rich and poor will be a little wider’

    That’s what, the 100th time?

    Tiny Violin GIF from Tiny GIFs

    1. “don’t buy real estate in socialist sh$t-holes”

      Great advice that has saved me hundreds of thousands of dollars by not buying, and more importantly preserved my mobility, which is priceless. I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

      1. Just don’t live there, even as a renter. My quality of life won’t be improved by “walk scores” or the availability of weird ethnic restaurants.

    2. Wall Street vultures don’t want crappy little rental houses with tons of deferred maintenance in neighborhoods that are marginal at best. These will be snapped up by local contractors looking to keep their crews busy — fixed up a bit and put back on the market. This is how neighborhoods improve.

      1. Contractors who are actually “contractors” aren’t interested in wasting time on old structures.

  5. ‘Politicians could: 1) cancel property taxes for needy landlords’

    Yeah, watch that happen!

    ‘2) defer mortgage payments and foreclosures for all rental properties (not just those that are federally-backed’

    Sure, the mayor can just snap his fangers!

    ‘allow all landlords access to forgivable PPP funds, and 4) establish programs that pay the rent for tenants who have been affected by the pandemic’

    Once again, a multi-trillion$ industry is begging for free cheese. Get off yer knees already.

    1. Blackstone is preparing to tell existing real estate investors they will have to eat losses, while simultaneously raising new money for investment at more reasonable prices. If such prices ever arise.

      1. Yep …

        “New York, September 22,2020 – Blackstone (NYSE: BX) today announced the final close of its most recent real estate debt fund, Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies IV (‘BREDS IV’). BREDS IV has $8.0 billion of total capital commitments, making it the largest real estate credit fund ever raised.”

        Blackstone Announces $8.0 Billion Final Close for Latest Real Estate Debt Strategies Fund – Blackstone
        https://www.blackstone.com/press-releases/article/blackstone-announces-8-0-billion-final-close-for-latest-real-estate-debt-strategies-fund/

        2. Blackstone lost their shirt the last time they gambled.

          Doubling down is the surest sign of a Degenerate Gambler.

      2. “People have been talking about the end of the cycle for 12 years, and I’m excited if it is,’ he told the Globe and Mail in March of 2007. “I’ve always made more money in bad markets than in good markets.”:

  7. From WFLA in Florida. “While she calls moratoriums ‘crucial,’ Ida Eskamani with the Florida Housing Justice Alliance, also described those measures as short term solutions for a long term problem. ‘At the end of this year, folks are still going to owe thousands in unpaid rent,’ she explained. ‘So right now, we’re just kicking the can down the road.’”

    – Bingo!
    – Same w/ forbearance. The entire amount of the deferred payments is still due. Forbearance, moratoriums, and deferrals aren’t forgiveness.
    – Just keep the house of cards standing until after the elections.

    From City Watch on California. “A congresswoman tweets ‘Cancel [rent].’ Others take the sentiment further, writing: ‘Every landlord is a fascist,’ ‘All landlords are evil scum,’ ‘Kill the landlords,’and ‘Landlords are the devil.’

    – This is a Congresswoman no less. Comrade Congresswoman and Useful Idiot.

    “The government’s destruction of small landlords in 2020 will be calamitous for tenants in 2021 and beyond. There will likely be an outbreak of foreclosures and sell-offs by those who are unable to endure the eviction-moratorium storm. When the small landlords disappear, so does much of the affordable housing. Corporate investors, real estate conglomerates, and Wall Street vultures will swoop down for the kill, snapping up properties, remodeling them, and raising rents. In the end, communities will be left with fewer economical rentals, and the chasm between the rich and poor will be a little wider.”

    – All according to plan.

    The Nevada Independent. “‘There won’t be as much use this fall for the eviction program because of the presence of the CDC moratorium … and come January, there’ll be no moratorium but there’ll be no money to be able to handle eviction mediations,’ Hardesty said. ‘That seems to me to be a problem.‘”

    – Does the can-kicking end in January 2021? Will the SHTF then? The longer the delay is prolonged, the worse the final outcome. For example, the longer these deferrals, forbearances, and moratoriums drag out, the larger the total monthly rent and mortgage payment sum grows. Does anyone really think that the past due amounts will actually be paid back? “Rent free” and “mortgage payment free” have real world economic consequences. Interesting times indeed.

    “Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.” – Robert Louis Stevenson

    Stein’s Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” – Herbert Stein (1916-1999), Economist

    “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

  8. Illinois = CRATER:

    “Illinois is set to borrow several billion from the Federal Reserve’s Municipal Liquidity Fund (MLF) for a second time if a new U.S. stimulus package and a progressive tax hike scheme for Illinois don’t come through, according to comments from Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. Illinois already borrowed $1.2 billion from the MLF earlier this year in an attempt to close some of the state’s 2020 budget shortfall.

    The borrowing is significant since Illinois is the only state in the country to tap the MLF. The Fed created the MLF in April to be a “lender of last resort,” where cities, states and other government entities can go if they can’t raise money as a result of COVID-19. The governor’s comments are an admission that the normal financial markets aren’t willing to lend money to Illinois at competitive terms.

    COVID-19 has brought to full view all of Illinois’ pre-pandemic problems. The increased stress is highlighting Illinois’ extreme outlier position nationally when it comes to finances, notably pension debts and the state’s unwillingness to reform. Gov. Pritzker continues to count on a federal bailout and more tax hikes to keep the state afloat, but neither will reverse the problems of overwhelming pension costs, the “nation’s least-tax-friendly-state” status and the increasing outmigration of Illinois residents.”

    https://wirepoints.org/no-shame-illinois-set-to-borrow-from-feds-lender-of-last-resort-facility-a-second-time-wirepoints/

    1. The borrowing is significant since Illinois is the only state in the country to tap the MLF.

      Something tells me they will soon have plenty of company.

    2. New York’s MTA is borrowing. It is in big trouble because compared with most U.S. transit systems it covered a large share of its budget with fare revenue. It also has $45 billion in debt.

    3. “Illinois is set to borrow several billion from the Federal Reserve’s Municipal Liquidity Fund (MLF) for a second time if a new U.S. stimulus package and a progressive tax hike scheme for Illinois don’t come through, according to comments from Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

      See the problem? It’s the borrowing – the debt. Debt-saddled junkies, municipal or household, are a drag on society.

        1. Hey! Those cop and firefighters who retired at 50 with a six figure pensions and gold plated health plans are heroes! They deserve every penny!

          /sarc

          1. Gov’t pensions: Just learned through my grapevine that an ex-in-law of mine, age 83, had his wife’s medical benefits through his state pension eliminated to save the state some $.

    1. There’s getting to be a rotating RV encampment along highway 1 near Carlsbad. They park on the next street over at night, then move to the beach during the day. There’s one guy that has a beat to hell Datsun pickup RV with a beat up generator hanging off the back of it that he runs all day. Doesn’t sound like it has a muffler…. I see him parked across the street from multimillion dollar houses…. RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

      You see them on the suburban streets in Carlsbad/Oceaside too, for one night and then off to the next open spot. Saw a bunch of kids spill out of one parked under the freeway, to play on the concrete slope. Could have got some real Grapes of Wrath photos of that bunch.
      Seems to thin out as you go south. Probably different police enforcement.

      1. “Could have got some real Grapes of Wrath photos of that bunch”

        It must be nice knowing that you’re better than everyone else.

      2. Doesn’t sound like it has a muffler…. I see him parked across the street from multimillion dollar houses…. RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

        I’m sure that all those homeowners, with their BLM and Biden yard signs, don’t mind having the homeless living next to their front yards. I wonder how long until those people start building tall front yard fences with beefy gates to keep the vibrants out of their yards? I’m talking 3rd world styled fences, made of brick or cinderblock and topped off with chunks of broken glass.

        1. don’t mind

          Oh no, they’re total NIMBYs on Nextdoor after Encinitas opened a parking lot for homeless living out of their cars.

          1. I’d rather have the homeless living in a parking lot instead of my front yard. Of course a local parking lot will probably just generate overflow that will spill into residential neighborhoods, so it would be better if it was located in San Marcos or Escondido, but I suppose those communities would object.

          2. From what I’ve read, the homeless have taken the parking lot and lack of other enforcement measures as a welcome invitation.

        2. The richies are fairly right wing in these parts, kind of Orange County South. The liberals tend to be middle class and lower, dwelling in the the ticky tacky houses on the other side of the freeway from the ocean.

          1. The richies are fairly right wing in these parts,

            Not in my 21 years of experience in Encinitas West of I-5.

        3. Homeless like to start fires accident or just drunk IDK ?

          Inland from the coast that area San Diego north county is a fire trap .

      3. The commercial and industrial areas of west Berkeley just of I-80 have been full of RV for several years. Lots of these folks actually have jobs. They just can’t afford to rent a home that doesn’t have wheels.

        1. I never saw Breaking Bad but I remember hearing something about an RV. Now having lived in one for 6 weeks I can see how they would be attractive for anything that required a lot of heat and/or electricity that needed to fly under the radar. Hang out at an RV park for a few days and pull 50A of 110V the whole time and nobody will raise an eyebrow. Buy a propane fill every day, same thing. If anybody looks at you sideways go off to the desert and run the generator 24/7…nobody cares. I can totally see how you could make a show about that.

  10. “While she calls moratoriums ‘crucial,’ Ida Eskamani with the Florida Housing Justice Alliance, also described those measures as short term solutions for a long term problem. ‘At the end of this year, folks are still going to owe thousands in unpaid rent,’ she explained. ‘So right now, we’re just kicking the can down the road.’”

    #WeAllInThisTogether

  11. “Charlotte Laws is a bestselling author, cable news pundit, and Los Angeles Realtor. ”

    Looks like this stupid realtard believe in her own BS and brought too many rentals with too much debt. Oh Well.

  12. Q: what is your take on the Christmas season? If black Fridays are cancelled and lots of mall stores have closed, will people just buy everything on line and delivery drivers will be in hot demand?

    What if they find a “cure” will people go back to the malls just to hangout? Or is the economy so damaged it will take a decade to return?

    I miss going to see bands, sure i donate when they are playing live and i do have a great sounding stereo on my computer, but nothing beats live.

    1. what is your take on the Christmas season?

      Depends on whether there will be another round of $1200 checks.

    2. Apparently Halloween is canceled here in Las Vegas. Just as well. I quit two years ago since it had always worried me (home invasions, etc.) The later I’d fling open the door to pass out candy, the taller and way older the trick or treaters were, mostly just wearing a mask, silent.
      About ten years ago, in a sketchier area, I was leaning down giving a bunch of little kids candy and telling them how great their costumes were. I looked up at their mother who was leaning against the wall of our entrance a few feet away. She had a cigarette hanging out of her mouth and was looking me with pure comtempt. Never really enjoyed it as much since.

      1. I gave up more than 6 years ago for the same reason. This year is going to be tough. I think we’re going to see widespread riots.

        1. Hope not. Some here have floated a stupid idea that we park at designated places in the neighborhood giving candy to kids as they walk through. No thanks.

          No white vans allowed, I hope.

          1. In the past few years they’ve been offering trick-or-treating at shopping malls. I thought it was a brilliant idea. Indoors, well-lit, safe from cars, and businesses can afford to hand out pretty good loot and maybe get some impulse buying, and people at home can opt out without guilt. But I don’t think that will happen ever again. Malls themselves were already dying from a faltering economy and “youths” running wild even before COVID.

          3. Call me a coward all you want, but I am not opening my door to teenagers (or the little kids’ parents, who aren’t far off from teenagers themselves) who want to case the joint, or worse, case me. Not worth it for an effing Snickers bar.

          4. It’s not cowardly. To open your door to strangers is an extreme risk in this political climate. I’m surprised that we did it so long and that no invasions have been reported (ahem) on Halloween.

            “It’s for the children” gets you every time.

          5. Some people in the neighborhood go crazy decorating for Halloween. I’ve also noticed that many turn off their porch lights. We do the same and no one rings the doorbell.

          6. @In Colorado
            That is strange. You’d think it would be the opposite. Is it a “I’m with you in spirit” but don’t ring the bell, virtue signalling kind of thing ? Probably over thinking it.

          7. That is strange.

            It is pretty well understood here that if the porch light is not on, there isn’t going to be any candy.

          8. It is pretty well understood here that if the porch light is not on, there isn’t going to be any candy.

            What’s really annoying is when they ring the bell anyway.

          10. Call me a coward all you want I quite opening my door to anyone years ago, unless advance notice has been given that someone will be knocking. You are utterly vulnerable when you open your front door to whoever or WHATever is on the other side.

          11. WHATever is on the other side.

            Great Uncle of Ex, Central Kansas farmer, always kept a night stick hanging on the inside of his door. Kind of like a welcome mat, but not.

          12. I was addressing our Superfluous buddy who tells us we’re “terrified” to open our door to teenaged strangers. Fine, I have no problem admitting that I’m terrified of 3-4 teens (there’s never just one of them) who could overpower me in a second. Maybe I’ll have to get a shotgun to rack?

          13. Maybe I’ll have to get a shotgun to rack?

            Get one of those heavy chains, INSTALLED CORRECTLY, where you can open your door to see who’s there but not actually open it wide. If they try to force the door open they can’t get in. Again, it’s got to be a heavy duty one, installed correctly, not one of those “feel good” cheapies that a thug can overpower.

          15. get a shotgun

            My daughter put in a doorbell that takes pictures. I think you can look on your smartphone and see who/what is/was there. Her brother sent it to her via Amazon. And she installed it herself, so it has to be relatively easy.

          16. Joe Biden advised: “you want to keep someone away from your house, just fire the shotgun through the door.”

        2. strange
          Yes, of course. Pretty much everywhere, I think. What I was saying was why go to the trouble of elaborate decorations?

          3. strange
            This afternoon I drove by a house near me that was burnt out last Friday, killing the homeowner and one of her 2 dogs, the other is fine. The windows are now covered with plywood stamped with the logo of a company specializing in fire recovery. There were some small Halloween decorations, damaged by fire, next to the front step. Among the decorations is a white plastic cross with the first name of the deceased on the crossbar, which I suspect is not a Halloween decoration, but it strangely fits right in. Seems to cross the bar between fantasy and reality.

          4. tresho – is there some reason you are not removing the I in front of your name? Change it in the “leave a reply” box and make sure the “save my name” box is checked.

  13. Billionaire investor Howard Marks paints grim view of economic outlook: stimulus alone won’t cure ‘down-cycle’ – MarketWatch
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-investor-howard-marks-paints-grim-view-of-economic-outlook-stimulus-alone-wont-cure-down-cycle-11602619585

    (snip)

    “So the lower the fed funds rate is, the lower bond yields will be, meaning outstanding bonds with higher interest rates will appreciate. And lower yields on bonds means they offer less competition to stocks, so stocks don’t have to be cheap to attract buying. They, too, will appreciate. And if high-quality assets become high-priced and thus offer low prospective returns, then low-quality assets will see buying – implying rising prices and falling prospective returns – because they look cheap relative to high-quality assets.”

    🤐

  14. ‘More than 32,000 medical doctors and health scientists from around the world have signed a petition against lockdowns put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19, saying the measures are causing “irreparable damage.”

    ‘As of Oct. 13, over 23,000 of the signatories were medical practitioners and 9,000 were medical and public health scientists. They have joined more than 400,000 members of the general public in signing the petition.’

    ‘The petition is co-authored by Dr. Martin Kulldorff, a Harvard professor and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease; Dr. Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford University professor and epidemiologist with expertise in immunology; and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University Medical School professor and epidemiologist with expertise in infectious disease and vulnerable populations.’

    “Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short- and long-term public health,” reads the petition, titled the Great Barrington Declaration, after the Massachusetts town where it was authored by the three experts on Oct. 4.’

    ‘The declaration says lockdowns result in worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings, lower childhood vaccination rates, and deteriorating mental health, to name a few issues, all of which will lead to high mortality rates in the years to come.’

    ‘The doctors say officials should take the costs of lockdowns into consideration. This includes the negative health effects, such as the 40 percent rise in overdoses in some jurisdictions, delayed surgeries, delays in cancer patient diagnostics, and closure of schools.’

    “Our society has borne enormous pain over the past six months. It’s time to do something different,” the doctors write.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/over-30000-health-experts-sign-declaration-against-covid-19-lockdowns_3537277.html?utm_source=news&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=breaking-2020-10-13-2

    1. ‘More than 32,000 medical doctors and health scientists from around the world have signed a petition against lockdowns put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19, saying the measures are causing “irreparable damage.”

      If they lock this thing down again, it’s curtains. As of right now it will be 10 years before certain places recover.

  16. Even Denver’s Soros-installed DA might have a hard time justifying dropping first degree murder charges against a far-left loon with a history of harassing Trump supporters who was an UNLICENSED armed security guard for Pinkerton, and who was hired by the Real Journalists of Denver’s Channel 9 news. Both Pinkerton and Channel 9 news could be facing criminal charges for hiring this unhinged leftist.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8832341/Security-guard-Matthew-Dolloff-shot-Patriot-Muster-protester-attended-Occupy-Denver-rallies.html

      1. A judge on Tuesday also granted a motion filed by the Denver DA for a 72-hour extension on a decision on whether to file charges against Matthew Dolloff.

        https://www.9news.com/article/news/crime/unlicensed-security-guard-matthew-dolloff-shooting-probable-cause-statement-video/73-a5a0a0e9-11b1-4d7d-972d-7b2a25fd1173

        Apt 401 is probably right, the shooter isn’t going to be charged. They’re buying time hoping that this falls below the radar. Of course, there will be a civil suit, but that’s what insurance is for. Plus no one goes to jail.

          1. It would be delightful to see 9News become insolvent and go dark as a result of a civil lawsuit. I suppose that should it come to that, that some billionaire would quietly bail them out and keep them on the air. It is a propaganda outlet, after all.

        2. Plus no one goes to jail. The way the hiring of Dollof seems to have happened, a federal prosecutor could very easily make a case against him and his “employers” for a conspiracy to violate the civil rights of the dead man. The same mechanism was used decades ago when local prosecutors in the Deep South refused or failed to prosecute white supremacist who murdered civil rights workers. I am a bit surprised that the legal commentariat on the internet have not themselves brought up this possibility. If the Denver Ch. 9 corporation is part of a conspiracy like this, they could lose their FCC license and possibly be hit with a corporate death penalty.

          1. I am a bit surprised that the legal commentariat on the internet have not themselves brought up this possibility

            I’ve seen this mentioned in a different forum that has been
            discussing this shooting.

    1. As long as housing prices and rental rates continue cratering across the country, all is well.

      God Bless President Donald J. Trump and God Bless America!

    2. Operative word Moooooo.

      They moved into the inner city to be edgy and cool.

      They are leaving because they’re afraid of violence and lawlessness.

      2. Millenial city-dwellers are finally marrying and having children, and with that comes the desire for four walls, a plotch of grass, and a decent school. I recall discussing this on HBB. I wonder how many of these city dwellers were thinking of moving to the burbs anyway and saw COVID/riots/work-at-home as the final trigger.

        1. “Marriage Is Down. Given the lockdown, not to mention dramatic increases in unemployment and economic insecurity in the wake of COVID, it’s no surprise that the American Family Survey also suggests the marriage rate is falling—and will keep falling in the near future. Among unmarried Americans ages 55 and younger, 6% reported an increase in wedding plans, while 7% said they are postponing their marriage. America’s marriage rate, already at a record low, seems destined to fall further in 2020 and 2021.

          “Initial data from the states indicates a dramatic decline in marriage for 2020, with year-to-date marriage licenses issued down 18% in Hawaii, 17% in Florida, 9% in Arizona, and 8% in Oregon (the four states with data available throughout the lockdown months).”

          The Good and Bad News About Marriage in the Time of COVID | Institute for Family Studies
          https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-good-and-bad-news-about-marriage-in-the-time-of-covid

          1. Who wants to marry an Instagram girl, seriously? Downturns are when you attend college or do some traveling on the cheap with a friend.

    1. Shows that the “economy” started tanking in the last quarter of 2019.

      If national debt increases were subtracted from the GDP numbers I imagine it would look even more gruesome.

        2. I am saying it because it means this depression was in the making long before COVID came along. There won’t be a recovery any time soon. It also concerns me because the US gov might not last 20 more years, which is right about the time I might fall to some expensive sickness that only Medicare can pay for.

          1. some expensive sickness

            Don’t worry about the expense. Governor Cuomo already showed us this year what public healthcare does in a socialist utopia when the elderly want expensive hospital care. Triage, it’s free.

          2. he US gov might not last 20 more years

            The government will probably still be around. Whether Medicare will be able to pay for pricey elderly care is another matter. Need a new hip or treatment for cancer? Better have money saved for that.

          3. Whether Medicare will be able to pay for pricey elderly care is another matter.

            I say Medicare will still be around and will still pay. The real question is whether anyone capable of competently performing the procedure will be willing and able to accept Medicare’s offered payment in return for their service? Or will they require a much greater amount or a different currency altogether?

          4. Ideally you’d want something like Blue Cross/Blue Shield and Medicare Part B so that you can choose your medical professional.

          5. anyone capable of competently performing the procedure will be willing and able to accept Medicare’s offered payment in return for their service This in turns depends a lot on whether or not the competent performer has sufficient other potential paying customers available to keep him/her employed and well-practiced in the procedures in question. A long time back a surgeon might have accepted payment for services in livestock.

  22. This article is about a month old, but hey …

    Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent
    https://nypost.com/2020/09/21/almost-90-percent-of-nyc-bars-and-restaurants-couldnt-pay-august-rent/

    (an interesting snip)

    “Even before the pandemic when operating at 100 percent occupancy, these small businesses were struggling to stay open. Now we’re seeing widespread closures, approximately 150,000 industry workers are still out of their jobs, and the overwhelming majority of these remaining small businesses cannot afford to pay rent.”

      1. Mayor de Blasio, the small business killer

        08/22/19

        Back in April, I wrote about how de Blasio-backed policies and proposals – including higher minimum wages, mandated vacation, sick and family leave as well as rules for predictive scheduling, anti-harassment and a new congestion pricing fee – have caused such problems for New York City’s small businesses that many are shuttering their doors or moving out of town.

        Because of the mayor and city council, merchants and restaurateurs there are, as one business leader put it, “struggling to make ends meet.” Another business leader told me that many local “small businesses are on the brink.”

        It’s because de Blasio’s regulations are strangling them. And now, just when things couldn’t get any worse, things just got worse. New data show that New York City’s property taxes are skyrocketing.

        According to a recent report from Patch, New York City’s retail store buildings were billed a collective $1.5 billion in property taxes last year, an increase of 71.6 percent from 2009. Property taxes in office and residential buildings (which often have ground floor retail spaces) increased 69 and 66 percent during that period, respectively. The average property tax alone paid by a typical small merchant has increased from $46,620 to $78,494 during that period. Remember, this is more than $6,500 per month due just for property taxes, not even rent.

        https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/458343-mayor-de-blasio-the-small-business-killer

  23. “While home prices rose sharply in 2020, driven by strong sales of higher-priced properties and a limited inventory of homes for sale, the pace of price growth will be more moderate in the coming year,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young . “The uncertainty about the pandemic, sluggish economic growth, a rise in foreclosures, and the volatility of the stock market are all unknown factors that could keep prices in check and prevent the statewide median price from rising too fast in the upcoming year,” Appleton-Young continued.’

    https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2020/10/13/c-a-r-releases-its-2021-california-housing-market-forecast

    But UHS says every shack is to the moon Alice? Why would there be any foreclosures?

    1. uncertainty about the pandemic

      A real pandemic crushes property prices, as properties left vacant by the deceased pile up like cordwood.

  24. Clearwater, FL Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Tampa Area Submerges In A Sea Of Excess, Empty And Defaulted Housing Inventory

    https://www.movoto.com/clearwater-fl/market-trends/

    As one Florida broker explained, “with builders supplying the market with new construction at $50 per square foot, just how much do you think a 20 year old house is worth?”

  25. Prominent Colorado Democrat Khristopher Jacks, who sits on the executive committee for the state’s Democratic party and chairman of leftist organization “Our Revolution” was caught on undercover footage by Project Veritas promoting a violent agenda for far-left Democrats if President Trump wins in November..

    “I am going to do everything morally acceptable to win. I will lie. I will cheat. I will steal. Because that’s morally acceptable in this political environment. Absolutely. We are pirates on a pirate ship,” said Jacks, who functions as trainer, mentor and on-the-ground quarterback at Our Revolution protests.

    “I want to make this point very loudly and very clearly. I said it nicely before, but I’ll say it more curtly now. 2020 is a political revolution,” he added.

    https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1316151737040998400%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fguillotines-motherfcker-colorado-democratic-committee-member-caught-hidden-camera

      1. Imagine what they’re going to be like

        I can’t remember the title but James O’Keefe showed a book in one of his previous exposes that IIRC lays it out.

  26. Bank of America earnings tumbled on revenue, but they still “beat” by taking money out of loss reserves set aside in case deadbeats can’t or won’t pay back what they borrowed. The TBTF banks must be banking on the Fed and middle class taxpayers to cover their bad loans, since all of them are slashing their bad-loan provisions, despite the real economy being in free-fall.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/bank-of-america-bac-earnings-3q-2020.html

  27. “I have learned it is not unusual for a tenant to have a substantially higher income than a property owner.”

    I’ve had several tenants who earned more than me. I’d love nothing more than every tenant to earn more than me.

      1. every tenant to earn more than me There are many folktales pointing out the downside to a wish stated this way.

  28. It’s just real simple what happened here.

    Bill Clinton Adminstration passed policy that allowed the One World Order Globalist Fat Cats to rig the financial systems to favor Globalist and monopolies at the expense of the USA Citizens standard of living.
    Also , the Commies advanced as a result of this sell out by Politicians that started 25 years ago.

    So, under Obama the Dems bailed out the fraudulent Bankers. Than they passed a Commie Health bill that would insure monopoly price gouging and fixing of that industry .
    The monopoly created by the outsourcing of jobs and manufacturing to places like Communist China would crush Americans from being able to compete against the lowest pay scales World wide. This is in effect a monopoly on labor costs that brought greater profits to the Globalist Fat Cats.
    These systems created the gutting and looting of American standard of living, which furthered the rise of Commie revolution to take over the USA Government.
    The Globalist own the news so you get 24/7 fake news and diversion from the real issues along with fake racism narratives and white people bad and let’s take over the USA.
    Both the Commies and the Globalist are working to not allow a Government by the people that was highjacked by these forces.
    Trump’s election was a push back by his voters that were about half the Country.
    So, every attempt was made to take out Trump by these powerful forces that had already hijacked the Gov and institutions.
    The Citizens of USA got to take back the USA from this corrupted government.
    This Government was not set up to be run by anti American Globalist Fat Cats and Commies and price sitting Monopolies, and Ponzi Scheme Wall Street.
    The USA can’t get proper correction of the hijacking of the Government by these powerful forces until the power is taken out and seen for the self serving destructive and sinister power groups they are.
    China is another force that benefited by the betrayal of the Politicians to the favor of Globalist monopolies.

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