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Real Estate Became So Crazily Inflated That This Is The New Reality

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “A wave of foreclosures is likely coming that will hit low-income homeowners. As of August, over 10% of the eight million single-family mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration were delinquent by more than three months. According to the FHA, the reason for 86% of those delinquencies was ‘a national emergency,’ a category that includes the pandemic. These delinquencies are heavily concentrated among loans associated with low credit scores.”

“Two days before Halloween, zombie foreclosures — homes abandoned by their owners but not yet seized by lenders — account for 4.4% of all distressed properties in the Sarasota-Manatee region, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. The Sarasota-Manatee area reported a total of 9,423 vacant residential properties, or 2.8% of the entire housing stock. Just over 1,000 of those are in pre-foreclosure status.”

“As the coronavirus pandemic transforms San Francisco’s workplace, legions of tech workers have left, able to work remotely from anywhere. Families have fled for roomy suburban homes with backyards. The exodus has pushed rents in the prohibitively expensive city to their lowest in years. Tourists are scarce, and the famed cable cars sit idle. For Rent and For Sale signs began popping up this summer with increasing frequency — and offering steeply reduced prices.”

“Now landlords are hard-up for tenants and some are offering several months free, said Coldwell Banker realtor Nick Chen, who recently rented out a one-bedroom for $3,150 that before would have easily gone for $4,300. ‘San Francisco rents have been really inflated over the past couple years,’ Chen said. ‘It will come back, but I think the question is: Will it come back to the level it was at previously? Maybe not.'”

“Inventory is starting to pick up very slightly now, but most are looking to the spring of next year for any real change in the market. ‘I think we’ll see MUCH more inventory than usual Spring 2021,’ said David Fogg, a real estate agent in Burbank, CA. ‘You’ll have all of the 2021 planned sellers as well as most of the 2020 planned sellers who put their move off for a year. Also based on my call level, I think in California you’ll see more new planned sellers than ever.'”

“Decidedly weak quarterly earnings reports from major apartment real estate investment trusts this week paint a bleak picture for some of the largest urban rental markets. Equity Residential, whose portfolio consists mostly of mid- to high-rise buildings on the East and West coasts, saw a particularly bleak third quarter. Its stock is down about 43% year to date. Occupancy and average rent rates fell and will likely drop further in the coming quarters.”

“Nearly a quarter of its holdings are in downtown San Francisco, Manhattan, Brooklyn, New York, Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts. Those are the markets most impacted, as they have seen large outflows of tenants moving either to smaller cities or the suburbs. ‘The proof is that rents are down double digits, plus the AvalonBays and Equity Residentials of the world are offering 2-months free on top of that in the major Coastal Urban Markets,’ said Alexander Goldfarb, a REIT analyst at Piper Sandler. ‘When DC, long a laggard, and Baltimore are the best relative apartment markets for companies like Equity Residential and AvalonBay, you know things have changed.'”

“It’s a nationwide trend that has hit Hawaii especially hard. The pandemic crippled the state’s tourism industry in March and has left tens of thousands of people out of work. Emergency orders to protect renters during the pandemic will end one day, and many fear that will thousands of tenants in financial holes ― unable to dig out. ‘It’s tough for everybody. There’s been a lot of reduced income and that makes paying rent difficult,’ said Dale Kobayashi who wears two hats ― as a landlord and a state lawmaker. He said he’s seen first hand the stress people are under due to the pandemic ― with 20% of his tenants currently out of work.”

“Kobayashi says landlords have two choices. ‘You either take someone to court,’ he said. ‘Or you sit down with them and work it out with them. I’m always in favor of the latter.’ ‘Come to the table. Mediate and work together,’ Kobayashi said. ‘You can’t get blood from a stone.'”

“Well before the outbreak of Covid-19, the luxury real estate sector in New York City was in trouble. The oversupply was particularly an issue in Manhattan: By the end of last year, 25% of the borough’s new condos built in the previous six years were still unsold, and that number climbed to 40% for the new construction along Billionaires’ Row. And now, sellers of ultra-luxe properties are slashing prices. ‘What people forget is that the market was having major issues pre-Covid. It was down 30% for the past year and a half,’ said Lauren Muss, a broker with Douglas Elliman in New York. ‘It may be that real estate became so crazily inflated that this is the new reality.'”

“Ben Myers says there’s no precedent for what’s happening. ‘In my 20 years covering the market, I have never seen rent declines like this,’ said Myers, reflecting on the persistent drop in Toronto apartment and condominium rental rates since March. Myers attributed the glut of units on the rental market to various factors. Asked for his view on prices in the months ahead, Myers offered this prediction. ‘We think it’s going to continue to go down,’ he said.”

“The sale bonus is a relatively new phenomenon in Vancouver, but one that is showing up more frequently in today’s uncertain real estate market. With the downtown condo market in a slump, many of those who made presale purchases appear to be unloading them. Adam Major, manager of Holywell properties, believes the bonus commissions indicate they are dealing with a market that has more listings than buyers.”

“Private rents in London have dropped for the second quarter in a row, with some areas posting sharp falls of up to 34% year on year, while other cities led by Edinburgh have also reported a decline during the pandemic. The areas with the biggest drops in rents were Aldgate in east London (EC3), where rents were down 34%, Maida Vale and Paddington in west London (W9), where rents dropped by 20%, and Westminster, Belgravia and Pimlico in the south-west (SW1), with a decline of 17%.”

“Matt Hutchinson, the communications director of SpareRoom, said: ‘The places that are more expensive usually see the biggest falls first, always the south-west and west of the capital. If people are feeling the pinch, the most expensive places are just out of budget.'”

“Residential rents in Dubai, which have dropped 43 per cent since their peak in the second quarter of 2014, will continue to decline in the next six to nine months due to a sustained supply of new units in the months ahead, say real estate industry consultants. Citing an example, Sailesh Israni, managing director of Sun and Sand Developers, said earlier, when a new engineer used to come to Dubai with a Dh6,000 salary, he lived in a sharing accommodation; now, such professionals are preferring independent or shared apartment with only a single person.”

“The new black swan of the global economy leading to the worst recession in Thailand in over two decades is a negative factor that will worsen the weak property market, in addition to the lending curbs imposed last year. According to property developer Pruksa Holding Plc, housing market value in Greater Bangkok shrank 36% to 128 billion baht in the first half, from 199.51 billion baht in the same period last year. The largest drop was from condos at 54%, followed by townhouses (20%) and single detached houses (12%).”

“‘Some 10 million people have been affected by the Covid-19, in terms of layoffs and salary cuts,’ Supalai’s chairman Prateep Tangmatitham said. ‘The government should reopen to international tourists, otherwise the economy will crash in the fourth quarter.'”

“In the classic fairytale Cinderella, the fairy godmother turns Cinderella into a princess with her magic wand – but only until the clock strikes midnight. In many ways Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the banking regulator APRA have acted like a fairy godmother for the nation’s mortgage and SME (small and medium enterprise) borrowers. They’ve used their magical abilities to change otherwise concrete rules surrounding financial regulation and loan repayments, to make bad loans good and offer an unprecedented number of loan deferrals.”

“But like the story of Cinderella, the magical illusion of low mortgage arrears and good times underpinned by government support will fade when the clock strikes midnight. However, unlike the fairy godmother, APRA and the Morrison Government have already waved their magic wand again to extend mortgage deferrals, from their initial conclusion in September and October, to March next year.”

“This has been dubbed by some economists and finance experts as a strategy of ‘Extend and Pretend’. Effectively ignoring what would otherwise be a US subprime crisis level of mortgage arrears and hoping that someway, somehow, things would improve. With so many workers potentially facing unemployment in the coming months, it’s possible we may see a second wave of struggling borrowers seeking to defer their loans. When this time comes, the property market may face a perfect storm as struggling borrowers stare down the possibility of being forced to sell their homes or investment properties at the same time.”

“Perhaps Australia’s property market will be protected by the magic wand of APRA and the Morrison Government, emerging relatively unscathed. Or maybe this time, the storm is simply too powerful for even the magic of government and banking regulator intervention to overcome.”

This Post Has 148 Comments
  1. ‘For Rent and For Sale signs began popping up this summer with increasing frequency — and offering steeply reduced prices’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

  2. ‘earlier, when a new engineer used to come to Dubai with a Dh6,000 salary, he lived in a sharing accommodation; now, such professionals are preferring independent or shared apartment with only a single person’

    That’s the spirit!

    1. “Residential rents in Dubai, which have dropped 43 per cent since their peak in the second quarter of 2014, will continue to decline in the next six to nine months due to a sustained supply of new units in the months ahead, say real estate industry consultants.”

      Is this a lot Ben?

      1. i feel the need to explain something to a generation that does not remember, or never saw, a world where 1 person with a h.s. diploma could buy a house with 1 year income and support a family of 5 comfortably

        This was real
        For millions of Candian, American, European, and Eastern Bloc families
        It was stolen from you

        http://prawd.sweb.cz/filo/housing-price-2X.htm

  3. ‘The proof is that rents are down double digits, plus the AvalonBays and Equity Residentials of the world are offering 2-months free on top of that in the major Coastal Urban Markets’

    Like SF, down over 30%, a couple months free, (add in a gift card), and yer down how much? 50%?

  4. ‘The Sarasota-Manatee area reported a total of 9,423 vacant residential properties, or 2.8% of the entire housing stock. Just over 1,000 of those are in pre-foreclosure status’

    Zombie shacks are a REIC statistic, shadow inventory is a conspiracy theory. The article says there are just over 1,000 zombies in all of Florida, but we can see there are that many in Sarasota-Manatee. These former foreclosure tracking sites have become just like the redfins and zillows of the world. Telling lies and waving off millions of defaults.

    1. Thank goodness I got out of Florida and out of that area specifically. Keep you 10months of 87degrees high humidity flat land!

  5. ‘based on my call level, I think in California you’ll see more new planned sellers than ever’

    Wa happened to my shortage California?

    Diane, it’s time to change yer skirt. It’s got that brown stain again.

  6. Oh dear…

    ‘A justice department official has confirmed to Sinclair Broadcast Group that the FBI opened up a criminal investigation into Hunter Biden and his associates back in 2019, focused on allegations of money-laundering and that the probe remains active.’

    https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/tony-bobulinksi-i-have-now-put-myself-in-huge-risk-for-the-sake-of-the-american-people

    It’s not possible to give the big guy a cut without violating money laundering or other laws.

    Come on man…

        1. so much fake news

          OK…

          Ironic that this time the crime family has dropped a truck load of anvils on themselves.

    1. Where’s Hunter? Is he dead or in protective custody or ? No login on his porn account since he took the laptop to the repair shop, and that has to be a record for him, having watched 24k videos. Maybe Podesta and crew Seth Riched him, who knows.

      Noticed Pedo Joe is dragging the grand daughter with him on the campaign trail. Creepy AF.

        1. The one who was 14 years old when her uncle was smoking crack and doing video chats with while naked, that’s who.

          #SayHerName

  7. “…Kobayashi said. ‘You can’t get blood from a stone.’” ”

    Dale is correctamundo. Going to be a very popular proverb for the foreseeable future.

  8. Used Zillow to look at Las Vegas homes it seemed everything was
    pre- forclosure is it a Zillow malfunction or what ?

    1. Mortgage deliquencies (<90 days late)appear as pre-foreclosures.

      Deliquencies and defaults are skyrocketing everywhere.

  9. – Thanks Ben for your continuous coverage and documentation of the current global housing bubble (2.0). Someone will, someday soon, perhaps, compile your blog postings and comments into a book that will become required reading for B-school students and future real estate “investors.”

    Well before the outbreak of Covid-19, the luxury real estate sector in New York City was in trouble. The oversupply was particularly an issue in Manhattan: By the end of last year, 25% of the borough’s new condos built in the previous six years were still unsold, and that number climbed to 40% for the new construction along Billionaires’ Row. And now, sellers of ultra-luxe properties are slashing prices. ‘What people forget is that the market was having major issues pre-Covid. It was down 30% for the past year and a half,’ said Lauren Muss, a broker with Douglas Elliman in New York. ‘It may be that real estate became so crazily inflated that this is the new reality.‘”

    “Well before the outbreak of Covid-19, the luxury real estate sector in New York City was in trouble.”

    – “Well before”, as documented by Ben, since several years ago.

    “What people forget is that the market was having major issues pre-Covid.”

    – HBB readers didn’t forget. Unlike the MSM and REIC, Ben has documented and continues to document the central bank-induced slow motion train wreck that is global real estate.

    “It may be that real estate became so crazily inflated that this is the new reality.”

    – It may be, or actually, is.
    Realtor-speak translation:
    1) “crazily inflated” = housing bubble 2.0.
    2) “new reality” = falling prices (Oh no!). Important guide for the future: “Bubbles always pop.”

    – The slow-motion train wreck inexorably continues.

    “What has been will be again,
    what has been done will be done again;
    there is nothing new under the sun.” – Ecclesiastes 1:9

    “The popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosophers’ stone to make it last.” — Ludwig von Mises (1940)

  10. “…A wave of foreclosures is likely coming that will hit low-income homeowners…” “… According to the FHA, the reason for 86% of those delinquencies was ‘a national emergency,’ a category that includes the pandemic….”

    What are the odds that a new ‘Mad Cow’ Congress will offer up boatloads of free money to stall inevitable foreclosure wave?

  11. “Now landlords are hard-up for tenants and some are offering several months free, said Coldwell Banker realtor Nick Chen, who recently rented out a one-bedroom for $3,150 that before would have easily gone for $4,300.”

    It’s crazy to think that San Franciscans pay the same rent on a one bedroom apartment that will get you a four bedroom house in North County San Diego

    1. The people paying that much weren’t San Franciscans. San Franciscans were forced to leave because they couldn’t afford to live there anymore.

      https://sf.curbed.com/2019/1/30/18196549/san-francisco-everyone-leaving-first-person-migration-california

      “There is an apocalyptic amount of people moving into California, and no one blames them for the overcrowding and the shifting culture. But when too many Californians leave California and settle in, say, Portland, they are blamed for ruining the place by way of simply being themselves.”

      “We are witnessing two migrations. One is the continuation of the Californian dream, where young people flock here for gold and glory, ready to hustle and disrupt, hammering to hit the motherlode and laughing at the odds. The other is the migration of young people out of California, which seems to have affected everyone I know, but which I rarely hear examined. These people want to be artists, teachers, blacksmiths, therapists, mechanics, and musicians. They want to have children, open bakeries, own a house. But they can’t. There is no room here for those kinds of dreams anymore. They hear about someone’s success in New Orleans, Kansas City, or Pittsburgh, and they leave their families and communities behind on the chance they will, ironically, strike gold.”

      “To the angry locals of Portland, Seattle, Denver, New Orleans, Kansas City, Phoenix, Austin, and elsewhere, please hear this defense: The Californians who are coming in and “ruining” your cities are not snobs. They don’t have trust funds. They aren’t entitled. They are the opposite. They have been kicked out of their own backyards for not learning Python fast enough or not having a dad who could introduce them to VC firms or not wanting to live in their family’s in-law unit at age 30 or not being able to afford a $2,000/month studio on a $20/hour paycheck. They aren’t techies; they had the audacity to want something besides tech. They are some of our best, most creative, most hardworking people—and you are getting them. We are losing them.”

      1. The Californians who are coming in and “ruining” your cities are not snobs. They don’t have trust funds. They aren’t entitled. They are the opposite.

        Sure. But let’s talk about how they’ve been indoctrinated to vote their whole lives. Nobody has time to re-educate that many people so fast. Hence the resentment…nobody living outside of CA wants to turn their state into CA, if they did they would have already moved to CA.

        1. But let’s talk about how they’ve been indoctrinated to vote their whole lives ??

          You mean like people who were raised in Alabama have been indoctrinated on how to vote their whole lives ??

          1. ‘From 1876 through 1956, Alabama supported only Democratic presidential candidates, by large margins. There were only two exceptions; the 1928 elections in which the Democrats won by a much smaller margin than normal due to Anti-Catholic prejudices against the Democratic candidate Al Smith, and the 1948 election when Alabama, along with Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Carolina, voted for Strom Thurmond of the pro-segregation States Right’s Democratic Party. In 1960, the Democrats won with John F. Kennedy on the ballot. However, six of the state’s 11 Democratic electors were members of the unpledged elector movement, and gave their electoral votes as a protest to Harry Byrd.’

            ‘In 1964, the state swung over dramatically to support Republican Barry Goldwater, who carried the state with an unheard-of 69 percent of the vote, carrying all but five counties. He was the first Republican to carry the state since 1872. Like much of the Deep South, Alabama’s voters turned violently on President Lyndon Johnson in the wake of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.’

            ‘In the 1968 presidential election, Alabama supported native son and American Independent Party candidate George Wallace over both Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey. Wallace was the official Democratic candidate in Alabama, while Humphrey was the National Democratic nominee.[14] In 1976, Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter from Georgia carried the state, the region, and the nation, but Democratic control of the region slipped after that.’

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Alabama

          2. You mean like people who were raised in Alabama have been indoctrinated on how to vote their whole lives ??

            Doesn’t matter. People from Alabama aren’t traveling to CA en masse and changing election outcomes and then wondering why the locals don’t like them so much.

          3. Anti-Catholic prejudice
            Pro-segregation
            Turned violently in the wake of the Civil Rights Act

            Looks like they’ve been indoctrinated to vote, all right, but for something other than party labels. What we really need is a Merit Party.

      2. The Californians who are coming in and “ruining” your cities are not snobs. They don’t have trust funds. They aren’t entitled. They are the opposite. They have been kicked out of their own backyards for not learning Python fast enough or not having a dad who could introduce them to VC firms or not wanting to live in their family’s in-law unit at age 30 or not being able to afford a $2,000/month studio on a $20/hour paycheck.

        BS. They are by and large equity locusts and real estate speculators. Once those areas they flock to crater, these people pull up stakes and move back to CA. We’ve seen this movie before, and it was only 10 years ago. Short memories.

        1. I used to refer to them as “locusts”, since i picked that up on the interwebs. However, considering the correctness of Carl Morris’ position, i have now taken to calling them “California Cockroaches”. They spread everywhere dropping their crappy politics on the poor, infested communities.

    2. Compare apples to apples. Vallejo north of San Francisco is and has always been cheaper than North County San Diego.

  12. “Extend and pretend” is the nightmare scenario for everyone except holders of existing pieces of paper.

    People who can’t afford housing, while existing housing sits vacant asking high prices and rents, deteriorates, and is eventually abandoned.

    Entrepreneurs can’t afford to start new businesses, even as commercial space sits empty, asking high rents.

    Young savers can’t acquire investments at prices that would allow a decent future rate of return.

    What has gone on is income redistribution on a grand scale. And they have said over and over that high asset prices are good.

  13. Michael Moore: ‘Don’t believe the polls, Trump vote is always undercounted’ – NewsReports.com
    https://www.newsreports.com/michael-moore-don-t-believe-the-polls-trump-vote-is-always-undercounted-66306.html

    (snip)

    “Listen, don’t believe these polls, first of all. And second of all, the Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter is very suspicious of the ‘deep state’ calling them and asking them who they are voting for,” Moore said.

    “It’s all fake news to them, remember. It’s not an accurate count,” the filmmaker said. “I think the safe thing to do, this is not scientific… whatever they’re saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half, right now, in your head. Cut it in half, and now you’re within the four-point margin of error,” Moore shared, “That’s how desperately close this is.

    “People keep asking me ‘what do you think is gonna happen,’” he added. “Because in 2016… four months, five months before the election, I said that Trump’s going to win and he’s going to win by winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

    “And that got me no free entrances to casinos by the way,” he said jokingly. “It hasn’t done me any good but now they expect me to know what happens next Tuesday and of course, I don’t know, none of us know. ”

    Moore continued, “But I wake up every morning with the assumption that Trump believes he’s going to win and that’s good enough for me. If he thinks he’s going to win, then I think he’s going to win.

    “And I am going to act every minute of today and the rest of the day until I fall asleep after midnight, I am going to be working to make sure he doesn’t win.”

    Moore also referred to Trump as an “evil genius” for his ability to win the election.

    “He’s already done it. He’s already fooled everybody and everybody must act right now as if this could happen again. And if it does happen again, game over,” concluded the filmmaker.

    Earlier in August, Moore had warned that the incumbent president was on course to repeat the 2016 result. He had said that the enthusiasm for the president in swing states was “off the charts” and urged everyone to commit to getting 100 people to vote.

    1. Michael Moore is correct. A Trump win is inevitable. Democrats better prepare themselves for more enraged caterwauling and blubbering ahead.

      1. Walmart is pulling all guns and ammo from their stores nationwide. I think they are expecting more than blubbering and caterwauling from the left this time.

          1. Gun permits in my local are up 1000% year over year. Thats not a typo, 1000%.

            The first deranged antifa tranny that throws a fit is gonna be like that first duck spotted in season, thousands of newly minted elmer fudds are gonna light it up and transform it into a good commie with a quickness.

          2. A large portion of the spike is liberals buying guns for the first time. Personally I have no use for firearms but I certainly understand how liberals (especially in Red States) feel threatened.

      2. I pass through DTLA while on my way to the office sometimes and did so today. Color me amused when I saw a good deal of board-up activity going on along Sprint Street. It seems that some property managers have in mind a “mostly peaceful” election.

      3. “Democrats better prepare themselves for more enraged caterwauling and blubbering ahead.”

        – Do you mean that there’s some psychotic disorder more serious than Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS)?

        – Time to head for the hills to that secret zombie apocalypse bunker… This is fine. /s

    2. You have to laugh at these libtards who predict the end of the world if Trump wins. What was so bad about the last 4 years, aside from said libtards burning and looting?

      1. Trump won’t give them their free stuff. And who’s going to mow their lawn? They generally label this “a threat to democracy.”

      2. No new Middle Eastern wars really chaps the rear ends of the Bill Kristol-John Bolton wing of the Republicrat Neocon party.

  14. Wall Street Journal — Walmart Pulls Guns, Ammo Displays in U.S. Stores, Citing Civil Unrest, October 29, 2020:

    ” Walmart Inc. has removed all guns and ammunition from the sales floors of its U.S. stores this week, aiming to head off any potential theft of firearms if stores are broken into amid social unrest.

    The retail giant, which sells firearms in about half of its 4,700 U.S. stores, said customers can still purchase guns and ammunition upon request even though they are no longer on display.

    “We have seen some isolated civil unrest and as we have done on several occasions over the last few years, we have moved our firearms and ammunition off the sales floor as a precaution for the safety of our associates and customers,” a Walmart spokesman said. The company hasn’t decided how long the items will stay out of view, he said.

    In a letter to store managers Tuesday, Walmart asked staff to pull guns from shelves “due to the current unrest in isolated areas of the country and out of an abundance of caution.”

    https://archive.fo/xAq2X

  15. There’s no place left to hide from the current market slide except for King Dollar.

    Good luck, HODLers!

    Markets
    Gold, Bonds Failed to Protect Investors Amid Stock-Market Swoon
    Investors worry that a lack of protection from traditional safe havens leaves them exposed during the U.S. election and an upsurge in Covid-19 cases
    During Wednesday’s market swoon, gold prices fell and Treasurys barely budged.
    Photo: david gray/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
    By Joe Wallace
    Oct. 30, 2020 7:14 am ET

    Investors found few places to shelter when stocks tumbled this week, illustrating the limitations of traditional havens following a run-up in prices across markets.

    Lockdowns in Europe and rising coronavirus cases and no agreement on a second round of government stimulus in the U.S. have shaken confidence in the world’s economic revival, putting the S&P 500 on track for its worst week since June. Government debt and gold, which many investors own in the expectation they will zig when stocks zag, haven’t acted like the safety net to which investors are accustomed.

    Money managers worry that a lack of protection from traditional havens leaves them exposed if stocks gyrate through a period spanning the U.S. election and potential upsurge in infections. Efforts to find new hedges in commodities, currencies and derivatives as well as more esoteric, less liquid markets gained new urgency during this week’s selloff.

    1. The Financial Times
      Steer from crisis to recovery with the FT
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Global equities markets on course for worst week since March tumult
      European and US stocks drop after Big Tech earnings fail to appease investors
      The decline in global equities comes as investors have grown increasingly worried about the soaring rate of coronavirus cases in Europe and the US
      © JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
      Adam Samson and Camilla Hodgson in London an hour ago

      Equities markets were set to cap a volatile trading week on a gloomy note on both sides of the Atlantic after broadly upbeat earnings from America’s tech giants failed to impress investors.

      A sell-off on Wall Street gathered pace an hour after the opening bell, sending the large-cap S&P 500 down 1.9 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite 2.3 per cent lower.

      European stocks struggled for direction, paring back earlier falls by the afternoon. The region-wide Stoxx 600 index was down 0.2 per cent, while Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax slipped 0.6 per cent and London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.4 per cent.

      MSCI’s broad gauge of stocks in developed and emerging markets around the world fell 1. 5 per cent on Friday, leaving it down 5.7 per cent this week — its heaviest sell-off since concerns about coronavirus gripped markets in March.

      The selling comes against a backdrop of renewed virus-related lockdowns across much of Europe and the upcoming US presidential election that has sparked an uptick in stock volatility.

      “The market turned decidedly cautious this week” with rising coronavirus infections calling into question “the path forward for the global economy”, said Candice Bangsund, vice-president and portfolio manager at Fiera Capital Corporation.

      “Investors are likely to remain on edge in the near term,” she added.

      1. One take home:

        When stocks and bonds are both in a slide,
        King Dollar is the only safe place left to hide.

    2. Stock Market Today
      Dow Jones Collapses To Mark Worst Month Since March As Election Looms Large
      MICHAEL LARKIN
      04:50 PM ET 10/30/2020

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended October on a low point, marking its worst month since March as a broad sell-off saw all the major indexes close lower.

      Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is looming large. A tough day for big tech stocks also played a major role in the rout. Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN) all suffered a chastening day.

      There could be a period of intense uncertainty if neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump emerges as a clear victor. And if the Democrats take the House and Senate, major policy changes could affect the health care, energy, defense, construction, automotive and technology industries. While Biden leads, the race appears close in swing states, according to IBD/TIPP polling.

  16. a little old but wow…..Since 2008, the twin tops of the 1,359-unit Silver Towers rental have punctuated the sky above Midtown. In Queens, jumbo-sized Linc LIC leased out all of its 709 apartments two years ago.

    But now, the city has reached a tipping point. More than 10 colossal rentals with 500-plus units — several housing more than 900 apartments — either just opened or are in the development pipeline.

    https://jdsdevelopment.com/giant-1000-apartment-buildings-taking-nyc/

    1. I guess “whiter” areas the land and their up front costs will be a lot higher, and they cant afford it.

      1. The Globalist want a rigged economic system whereby the working stiff is looted. Government control of the cattle is part of the means to control the cattle they loot. They loot the worker , than Government pays for the looting. Make Government pay for all the wealth disparity that monopoly Globalism causes. Create a false narrative that it’s racism causing the wealth gap ,rather than the Globalist unfair monopoly looting. Destroy capitalism and go for Top down Government Control of the cattle. So, rather than people being in control of the Government, the Gov in conjunction with Globalist monopolies control the wealth people get for labor.
        It’s actually a form of redistribute wealth by destroying capitalism. The Globalist want one world order of Top down control where they call the shot on wealth distribution where they take the lions share, with Government paying for the damage.
        They own the news,, and the promoting of false narratives and bribes and Commie equity BS is to keep the monopolies going, even if it means the rise of China to the weakening of the US.
        A political Party taking over systems and institutions like education , welfare State, health care etc, is part of the control.
        They already hijacked the systems and the Trump election represented a resistance by the make America great again, by putting power back with people .
        They don’t want power back to the people. All their economic systems are rigged , false and insane.

      2. Allowing fast food to accept EBT is a gross distortion of what EBT is supposed to be. It’s just a giveaway to fast food restaurants. Who lobbied that?

        1. You have to ask? The liberal argument is the poor people work 3 jobs and didn’t have the time to buy, cook, or clean raw ingredients. And don’t forget that poor neighborhoods are food deserts and sometimes the only available food is the McDs or 7/11. Therefore, SNAP recipients should have “access to” [translation: free] prepared food. Of course, fast food restaurants use that as license to have the gov pay for the profit margin for their value-added junk.

          There’s something to be said for being too tired to cook. However, there’s a lot of gray area between using SNAP to buy flour and using SNAP to buy pizza. There’s probably a happy medium in there somewhere.

          1. Don’t forget those huge “Playland” climbing structures, which help the kids get their exercise contributing to a better night’s sleep. And the action figures, which subconsciously wire them for future military service. It’s not just a meal.

          2. They had to change it to “value” because of inflation. You can’t get much for a dollar anymore. I predict that dollar stores are going to be two-dollar stores pretty soon.

    1. Need to start putting down a few of these animals like the rabid dogs they imitate. Theyre just hurting the working class with this and we have too much dead wood walking this planet as is.

      Saw a funny idea somewhere on the interwebs – give illegals the chance at becoming citizens and let them hunt down BLM/antifa types that riot and loot. Call it: Aliens vs. Predators!

      1. a few of these animals

        We simply need to enforce our laws. Put looters in prison and let them do the work that immigrants don’t want to do.

        1. I would eliminate all parole, early release even probation with mandatory English classes. Since the average inmate reads at best a 6-8th grade level, give the prisoner a choice on how long they want to stay in jail, by reading the NYTimes and then explaining to the judge why they are in jail. The arrest warrant, the judges reasoning for the sentence.

          1. Forcing them to read globalist propaganda would be cruel and unusual punishment, in addition to making them even dumber.

          2. Start by asking the convicts what state is Columbus Ohio the capitol of? Until they can answer that correctly, there’s no point in any further education.

      2. Need to start putting down a few of these animals

        I will tell you this much: If ANYBODY opens my door or threatens me in any way while I am driving, I will for sure be “putting them down.” I would rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6.

        1. “I would rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6.”
          Nice. Still ten toes down in your Balenciagas?

          1. Thanks, oxide, didn’t know that. I assumed he was referring to the Roddy Ricch/London on da Track song, which would have been awesome.

      1. Ten years from now, those will be Central Committee members if the globalists and their collectivist minions have anything to say about it.

  17. Oh noes! Fewer Coloradans are apply for financial aid, which means they aren’t going to college and getting into crippling debt!

    https://coloradosun.com/2020/10/30/colorado-colleges-universities-fafsa/

    Why so many Coloradans leave college financial aid on the table — and how to fix that

    “It’s a pot of gold,” said Angie Paccione, the Colorado Higher Education Department executive director. “If you don’t access that money, it’s your loss.”

    Since when are loans you have to repay with interest a “pot of gold”?

  18. interesting article for the layman — on how just a small % of residential property sales involved in money laundering can have an oversided impact on bubbling prices.

    “While Canadian cities are debating whether dirty money impacts prices, the rest of the world made up its mind. Transparency International UK found a significant correlation between shell companies, and elevated prices. London for instance, has 87,000 homes owned by anonymous companies. According to Christoph Trautvetter of Netzwerk Steuergerechtigkeit, the estimated impact from dirty money in London is 20% of the price increases.”

    https://betterdwelling.com/how-a-little-money-laundering-can-have-a-big-impact-on-real-estate-prices/?utm_source=Better+Dwelling+Website+Signup&utm_campaign=4c5e99693b-fras_jan_112018-3094981_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bde8feedee-4c5e99693b-309124921

  19. I just watched Joe Biden give a speech. I want to vomit.

    It was all about Trump bad cause he had right offs. He’s back for killing people by Covid. He’s bad because people will die without Obamacare, Trump is Racist and Biden will singlehandedly United the Nation.
    Nothing to much on his policies or how they would work, but silly stuff like he would make people wear masks and follow the science.

    If a speech like this is acceptable to anyone, than your brain damaged and know not that you vote against your own interest. You are voting for the crooks to inherit the earth.

    1. The Globalist, the Monopolies , China, with the fake news want to buy the election with deceit and slander and false narratives/

      If Trump gets defeated they will go for a greater power grab than their insane hijacking of the Gov.was before. All problems this Country was facing was because of their rise to power to begin with. Rigged financial systems. Who elected Soros to proclaim that all borders should be opened in a One World Order of evil control freaks playing God by controlling the World.
      It’s no different than Hilter and Japan who wanted the World. The only difference is they are trying to take over from within.

      They look at you like cattle to either exploit or bribe with free cheese they don’t pay for with corrupted government being the Pawn

      Take back the USA .

    2. I want to vomit.

      The Big Guy is running on character when he knew his crackhead son was abusing his granddaughter and yet did nothing about it.

      1. Isn’t he now dragging that granddaughter around on the campaign trail, to act like nothing happened? That poor girl is messed up for life.

  20. “A wave of foreclosures is likely coming that will hit low-income homeowners.

    As always, the financial media talking heads and asleep-at-the-switch regulators will assure us that no one could’ve seen it coming.

  21. s of August, over 10% of the eight million single-family mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration were delinquent by more than three months.

    Is that a lot?

  22. “These delinquencies are heavily concentrated among loans associated with low credit scores.”

    I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.

  23. ‘It’s tough for everybody. There’s been a lot of reduced income and that makes paying rent difficult,’ said Dale Kobayashi who wears two hats ― as a landlord and a state lawmaker.

    I get it, Dale. We’re all in this together.

    1. You’re on your way to Greenwich High School in 1977. You’re riding shotgun in your buddies 66 Chevy Malibu convertible, you took your last hit off the joint and passed it to the boys in the back seat, the Imus in the Morning AM radio show cuts to a Crazy Eddie prices are so low they’re insane commercial, one of the guys in the back coughing and choking with smoke coming out of his nose because he took to big a hit off a joint that had gotten to small shakes his head and says… how about some tunes? You reach down into the shoebox on the floor and grab Physical Graffiti, you slide it in the 8 track player and…

      https://youtu.be/MviBlaTIV-s

    1. Joe Biden who says he wants to be every Americans President was in Minnesota too and added ugly to fat, junky, chumps and dregs of society to the list of things he has called people who questioned or disagreed with him during his current run for President.

      WAIT! DID ANGRY JOE BIDEN JUST CALL MINNESOTA TRUMP SUPPORTERS UGLY?

      79 views
      •Oct 30, 2020

      https://youtu.be/Um_ftFtNkww

    1. No way that thing gets $50k at auction. Probably $40k at best. Just another braindead debt-junkie. What do you want to bet that he paid for the “mods” on a credit card?

      I remember years ago seeing a “build” on some truck forum and the guy was in the military with a wife and young child. He bought just about every performance part you could for the brand new, loaded diesel 4×4. He was in it well in excess of $125,000. Wouldn’t you know that shortly after he finished it, like less than 3 months, it was for sale at a massive loss? These guys are idiots.

    2. All of the “limited trim” coupes, sedans and SUVs seem to stop depreciating at ~$10k and odometer around ~140,000-miles. FWIW, there are many things in modern vehicles that begin failing unless it was garage parked and had rigorous fluid changes. I have to laugh when I see a photo of the engine compartment, and the brake master cylinder reservoir is “pitch black” while the ad says, “well maintained.”

    1. The Financial Times
      Steer from crisis to recovery with the FT
      Coronavirus pandemic
      US shatters daily record for new Covid-19 cases
      Nationwide increase of 97,000 infections is propelled by surge in Midwest swing states
      The US has confirmed about 548,000 infections over the past week
      © Getty Images
      Peter Wells in New York
      3 hours ago

      US coronavirus cases increased by 97,000 on Friday, by far the largest one-day jump since the start of the pandemic, with Midwestern states leading a wave of infections, hospitalisations and deaths across the country just days before the presidential election.

      The sharp increase, which beat Thursday’s record of 88,400, took the weekly total for the US to 548,000 infections, a record for a seven-day period since the disease started spreading across the country in March, according to the Covid Tracking Project data. On average, the country has added more than 78,300 cases a day during the past week.

      Friday’s increase was led by the big industrial states of the Midwest, many of which are key battlegrounds for Tuesday’s election. Illinois and Ohio set single-day records with 6,943 and 3,845, respectively. Wisconsin had 5,096 new confirmed cases, its second-highest daily increase, according to the state health department.

      1. coronavirus cases

        The trouble with how the cases are reported is that it is a measure against those tested, not the overall population Prof. Fear. What does measure against the whole population is Deaths.

        Here is the good news: Deaths related to PIC (Pneumonia, Influenza and Covid) have fallen to below the level of the tragic year of 2018.

        See the last graph. Indeed, we have rounded the corner. It’s not as bad now as the 2018 flu season.

        I’m tired of the hysteria and the closures.

        NYS now has travel restrictions (quarantine) on 45 other states! NJ, PA and CT would be on the list, but Cuomo says that would be “impractical”.

  24. ‘As the U.S. draws down its force numbers in Afghanistan, influential voices in the Beltway are warning that withdrawing from America’s current forever wars — including Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan — would increase risk to America’s security. What virtually none of these influencers have considered, however, is what risk we face by staying in the wars. As it turns out, the costs have been enormous and the risk of further damage prohibitively high.’

    ‘At a recent online event for the Alexander Hamilton Society, former national security adviser H.R. McMaster warned not only that it was a mistake for President Trump to withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, but that doing so was “a travesty.” If Trump made good on his promises, McMaster warned, it would be analogous to Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 appeasement of Adolf Hitler at Munich.’

    ‘Matthew Continetti of the American Enterprise Institute said that for the 75 years since the end of World War II, only the American soldier, “has kept a lid on cauldrons of bloodlust” around the world. Withdraw our troops from Syria or any of the many other current combat deployments, he concluded, “and the poison boils over.”

    ‘But is that a fair characterization? Would ending the numerous ongoing wars increase the risk to American security as these voices claim? Fear is one of the most effective tools used by the defenders of the status quo to resist any change, claiming that if their chosen policy isn’t followed, a terrible incident is likely to occur in the future.’

    https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/commentary/2020/10/23/risk-to-america-of-maintaining-forever-war-status-quo-dangerously-high/

  25. Eric Trump
    @EricTrump
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    2020 I’ll fix America!

  26. I am renting now because of the madness that inflated the California housing bubble especially now in the age of Covid with record low inventory, low interest rates and forebearance free cheese welfare for deadbeat home owners in Sacramento area. Bay area equity locusts who can sit on their overpaid a$$es and work from home are a big problem as well. I gave up hope of buying here after getting outbid on every 50 year old crapshack.

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