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When You Think There Is No Risk, Then People Take Very Risky Positions

A report from Bisnow on Illinois. “High property taxes are a hot-button issue across the state, with many commercial owners already crying foul. ‘When I used to give presentations on the state budget situation, I’d joke that we should make sure to lock the windows on our 51st-floor office because by the end someone might want to jump out the window,’ said CoStar Group Director of Market Analytics Brandon Svec.”

The News Trace on New York. “Scarlett Johansson hopes to skinny her appreciable bi-coastal property portfolio with the sale of a jewel field penthouse alongside an expensive if not-particularly charming block on the border between Midtown Manhattan’s swanky Sutton Place and Turtle Bay neighborhoods. Initially listed at $2.5 million and now priced at $2.3 million. Extensively renovated because it was acquired in 2008 for $2.1 million, and fully cleared of private belongings — itemizing images present the rental nearly staged with generic furnishings, the almost 1,300-square-foot aerie has two average-sized bedrooms and two pint-sized bogs.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “The pandemic hasn’t stopped new luxury apartment buildings from opening. A recent complex touted its convenient location in the city’s newest neighborhood, ‘Van Mission.’ Excuse me? I hate it when the real estate industry tries to rebrand existing neighborhoods as part of a sales pitch, so I let out a string of obscenities at the mention of this alleged ‘Van Mission.’ Obviously, there’s nothing new about this neighborhood: It’s not like several city blocks just emerged out of the earth or the real estate fairy waved a wand and sandwiched the new development between Van Ness Avenue and the Mission District.”

“I called my best friend, another San Francisco native, and asked her if she’d ever heard of Van Mission. ‘Who’s he?’ she asked. When I explained that Van Mission wasn’t a who, but a where, she responded, ‘There is no such place.’ In the past 20 years, I have watched attempts to rebrand swaths of San Francisco so often it’s no longer surprising, but it’s still infuriating and at times laughable.”

From KPIX in California. “Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, San Francisco rents have plummeted more than any other major city in the country. The average rent in one San Francisco neighborhood is now to $1,600. The mass exodus in San Francisco during the pandemic resulted in more housing supply and less demand. At $2,700 a month for a one-bedroom apartment, the city tops New York and Los Angeles. Neighboring cities San Jose and Oakland round out the top five.”

“These rent prices have fallen to levels that haven’t been seen since the last recession — drops of more than 20 percent compared to last year in many neighborhoods. South of Market, the average price of rent for a 1-bedroom apartment is $2,800 per month. Rents are lower closer to downtown where homelessness is more evident. The Tenderloin is the only neighborhood near the city center where the average price drops below $2,000. Closer to the water you’ll find apartment rentals hovering around $2,900 in Russian Hill and the Marina.”

“Presidio Heights has the highest median price for one-bedroom apartments at $3,050 a month. The southern part of the city is where you can find a wider selection of more-affordable residences. Visitacion Valley has the lowest median price in the city at $1,600 a month. Whether you agree that San Francisco has become a renter’s market, the truth is renters now have more leverage — especially with apartments that have been sitting vacant for a while. Renters can ask for a free first month, perhaps a free parking spot or even negotiate on price.”

The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “The lack of connection between soaring housing prices and tepid local wages in Metro Vancouver is caused in large part by hidden foreign ownership, says a peer-reviewed study from Simon Fraser University that is being welcomed by the B.C. minister responsible for housing. Based on data Statistics Canada has been collecting only recently, SFU public policy specialist Joshua Gordon’s paper shows the ‘decoupling’ of housing prices from incomes in Metro Vancouver has been caused by ‘significant sums of foreign capital that have been excluded from official statistics.'”

“Gordon’s research set out to solve a puzzle in Greater Vancouver and, to a lesser extent, Toronto. How can tens of thousands of owners who tell Revenue Canada they are low income (earning less than $44,000 a year) consistently afford homes valued in the $2- to $10-million range?”

“The new data revealed Richmond, West Vancouver, the city of Vancouver and Burnaby were epicentres of the foreign-ownership phenomenon: They have the highest housing prices, low average declared incomes and the largest proportions of non-resident owners. An earlier Statistics Canada study found the median value of a detached Vancouver home bought by immigrants who arrived via the investor program was $2.55 million, but the same group ‘declared an average of only around $20,000 in income in the first 10 years after landing.'”

“In the debate over the cause of high housing prices in Canada, Gordon says the conventional explanation, promoted by developers, is that not enough housing supply is being built. But, as Gordon emphasizes, in Canada ‘there has not been a single peer-reviewed article’ exploring the supply theory.”

From Delano Magazine. “Luxembourg has recorded a 50% increase in house prices since 2015, and still prices continue to grow. Director of the systemic risk centre and professor of finance at the London School of Economics Jean-Pierre Zigrand gave an enlightening talk to examine the ‘bubbliness’ of Luxembourg housing. To understand the market, you have to understand what drives it. Zigrand explained prices are high not because rental is high and we value housing, but because we treat the house as an asset. This formula is the fundamental theorem of asset pricing, which says the fundamental price of the property is what the market expects.”

“The price of property is equal to E what you expect in future rentals. Bt is the bubble component. ‘If there is one, the price is bigger than the fundamental value. You pay more than what it’s worth because you expect to sell it for even more to someone else later on,’ he said.”

“Some property in Luxembourg is bought using international capital, which means that cycles in other parts of the world will find their way through rates and buying into the Luxembourg market. ‘This makes it a bit vulnerable because that money can be pulled out again. The cycle is global and Luxembourg is no different from all the others.'”

“Zigrand says: ‘When prices go up, you also perceive there to be less risks, because everyone is happy and you have money, volatilities are coming down […] The real risk is the one you cannot see, it’s in green. When you think there is no risk, then people take very risky positions.'”

“Zigrand compared the propagation of a crisis to the Millennium Bridge in London, which was wobbly, engineers later learned, when 166 or more people walked on it. ‘Financial markets are the same. We don’t know what will happen. But something is building somewhere if something goes wrong there will be a feedback loop of everyone doing the same thing. We don’t know how vulnerable we are. 166 is an unknown unknown. This is a typical feedback loop. Once too much credit has been given, we see if then something happens like a shock on the top left, if all these effects will happen, people will lose money, there will be funding and liquidity problems,’ he said, adding : ‘It’s all possible. We don’t know how close to 166 we are.'”

“Another issue specific to the grand duchy is that 85% of wealth in Luxembourg is tied up in housing. ‘No other country comes close to that. If house prices go down, the wealth of the nation will go down.'”

From Caixing Global. “The hashtag #More than 1,000 real estate companies have switched to raising pigs is trending on Chinese social media after state-owned CCTV Finance released a video introducing the latest booming industry. A continuous boom in pork prices has seen pig farmers profit as other industries look on in envy. Perhaps surprisingly, those who have turned to pig breeding include China’s real estate conglomerates.”

“According to the chairman of New Hope Group, a leading pig breeder, real estate companies across the country have entered the market. Experts believe they may be motivated by a desire to diversify operations away from a single industry to reduce risk. China’s bout with African swine fever has sent pork prices skyrocketing for much of the last two years, leading companies in China’s sector to see big gains in their turnover. Producer Muyuan Food said in its third quarter report that profit per pig rose to more than 1,700 yuan ($260).”

“Since September 2020, the price of pork has started to drop and some experts explain that income volatility in the industry is inevitable. Investors need to be aware of the risks and cannot pursue a successful transformation in a short time. The news seems to please most people, as they are concerned about pork prices. ‘If too many companies enter the pork industry, they may face the risk of oversupply of pork, and the price of pork will come down,’ one comment read.”

“However, some people are worried that the craze will fade, as real estate companies often leave projects incomplete. ‘When new demand appears, everyone swarms in. Then when the craze has passed, everyone drifts away, and the waste of resources becomes obvious to all,’ another comment read.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 107 Comments

    1. The Mechanics Behind the Electronic Vote Steal Operation

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/OJrljwQFcIvc/

      https://twitter.com/tom2badcat/status/1325126091460268032

      https://archive.vn/KPwUa

      https://everylegalvote.com/country

      https://hereistheevidence.com/

      “Dominion-izing the Vote”

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/qlEUbPLvW98w/

      Eric Coomer Explains How To Alter Votes In The Dominion Voting System

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtB3tLaXLJE

      Eric Coomer, Dominion’s head of product and strategy, has disappeared.

      ‘Representatives from Dominion also did not attend a court hearing in Pennsylvania on November 19. Its US headquarters in Denver was also suddenly closed and moved away. Their employees deleted their names from LinkedIn.’

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oYQeeNCzZM

      https://www.theepochtimes.com/poll-watcher-describes-pennsylvania-election-irregularities-including-47-missing-usb-cards_3594549.html

      Here’s the testimony on video:

      “Baggies of USBs” – PA Witness Gives Explosive Testimony

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/AdaglXlcuqYt/

      Dem Ballot Inspector Says She Was Threatened with Violence for Speaking Up About Suspicious Activity

      “The majority inspector threatened to slap me in the face,” said Olivia Jane Winters, a registered Democrat and minority ballot inspector in Pennsylvania, testifying to Pennsylvania State Republicans Wednesday that she had been threatened and harassed by other election officials after she asked about suspicious activities during the 2020 election.’

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/_KrpyDlHTe8/

      Crowd Gasps after Finding out about Absurd Spike of Votes in Favor of Biden

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/jmNUAx8wQYdO/

      Sen. Doug Mastriano closing remarks PA state legislature meeting.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIqujobvDFI

      https://censoredbyjack.com/channel/evidence-of-widespread-election-fraud

      https://www.deepcapture.com/2020/11/election-2020-was-rigged-the-evidence/

      ”We began to look and realized how easy it is to change votes.”

      ‘Election security expert @RussRamsland
      has performed many investigations on US election machines.’

      ‘The most *shocking* thing about this interview is it took place just days BEFORE the election. Watch’

      https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1327511568993701888

      Col Phil Waldron Confirms Experts Witnessed Dominion Communicating with Frankfurt on Election Day

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/n7j5lg9fYyzz/

      1. ‘KRAKEN is DOD cyber warfare program.’

        ‘They cheated & got caught!’

        Sidney Powell
        🇺🇸
        ‘Who knew?’

        https://twitter.com/SidneyPowell1/status/1331435411286192128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1331435411286192128%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fheadlines360.news%2F2020%2F11%2F24%2Fsidney-powells-kraken-is-department-of-defense-cyber-warfare-program%2F

        I did some digging around and found this (WARNING) PDF:

        https://www.dacis.com/budget/budget_pdf/FY20/RDTE/F/1203110F_294.pdf

        It’s dated Feb. 2019. If you word search Kraken (‘respond’ category), you’ll find it twice on page 4. This unit 305 person is in the affidavits in Powells lawsuit.

        WARNING PDF with filing:

        https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mied.350905/gov.uscourts.mied.350905.1.15.pdf

        Zuckerberg on page 15. Obammie on page 8.

        ‘Response: Yes, our “White Hat” hackers – they have that traffic and the packets.”

        https://twitter.com/themodalice/status/1333505965857984512

        ‘Ruby Freeman Makes Video of herself Showing MOUNTAINS of GA ABSENTEE BALLOTS With NO RETURN ADDRESS’

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFYaxvxdfXY&feature=youtu.be

        Example

        Note the vote spike at the Atlanta treason:

        https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1334812236322381826/

        Corrupt Georgia Election Worker Seen Loading Same Ballots 3 Times into Machine

        Poll Worker Ruby Freeman Loads Up The Same Stack Of Ballots To Be Counted 3X

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiREC3Zy20E

        Ruby Freeman – “I need an attorney”

        “This is bigger than me. I need an attorney.” at 4:55.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsU-CXcJ4Lg

          1. ‘The stream is audio only because news outlets are not allowed to broadcast video, per an order amid the COVID-19 pandemic.’

            We all know you can catch the CCP virus through streaming video…

          5. At least the judge will feel safe driving home after his decision.

            Gov. Kemp Daughter’s Boyfriend Killed In Fiery, Explosive Wreck

            By Adan Salazar | INFOWARS.COM Monday, December 07, 2020

            A staffer and close family friend of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp died in a tragic car wreck Friday morning, hours after the governor called for a signature audit of 2020 election votes.

            Land of the Free
            @trustrestored
            ·
            Dec 5
            #HarrisonDeal car exploded (witnesses heard the explosion over a mile away). Vehicle left as molten metal, engine block ejected 50-60 yards away. That’s not an accident. That’s a car bomb disguised as an accident.

            https://www.newswars.com/deep-state-threat-gov-kemp-daughters-boyfriend-killed-in-fiery-explosive-wreck/

          6. Gov. Kemp Daughter’s Boyfriend Killed In Fiery, Explosive Wreck

            Should anyone doubt it, we are witnessing a coup d’etat. This was obviously a message sent to the governor and the senatorial candidates: Next time it’s you or your family.

          7. “Should anyone doubt it, we are witnessing a coup d’etat. This was obviously a message sent to the governor and the senatorial candidates: Next time it’s you or your family.”

            GSA Chief Says She Faced Threats to Family, Staff and Pets for Holding Up Biden Transition

            BY JEFFERY MARTIN ON 11/23/20 AT 8:32 PM EST

            General Services Administration (GSA) chief Emily Murphy claimed on Monday to have received threats for prohibiting the transition of President-elect Joe Biden’s administration into the White house.

            “To be clear, I did not receive any direction to delay my determination,” Murphy wrote. “I did, however, receive threats online, by phone, and by mail directed at my safety, my family, my staff, and even my pets in an effort to coerce me into making this determination prematurely. Even in the face of thousands of threats, I always remained committed to upholding the law.”

            https://www.newsweek.com/gsa-chief-says-she-faced-threats-family-staff-pets-holding-biden-transition-1549695

          8. Meanwhile, the media is cooking along like nothing is happening. Trump and Powell are really focused on Georgia. But what’s going on PA, MI, and AZ, or even WI? Trump needs three states.

          10. It’s a pretty timeline, but it basically needs SCOTUS to override the governors of five states, all this week.

          13. all this week

            I don’t know where you get that. The constitutional lawyer’s timeline for Dec 14 – Jan 6 says “Courts/SCOTUS – litigation of electors/elections continues.”

          15. PA and GA

            The PA case is the strongest but the connections of GA officials to China/CCP could blow up in the DNI assessment.

    1. Methinks Bob (and Stevie) sense a ‘bubble’ in their song library valuations (not to mention, how many years do they have left to spend it all?)

  3. This is the next article on the last link:

    ‘Apartment rental specialist Danke is rapidly coming undone, with landlords and tenants protesting on the streets of China’s biggest cities and unpaid employees threatening to sue. After starting the year on a high following a Nasdaq IPO, the 5-year-old company is bidding farewell to 2020 on a more somber note, with shuttered offices and a loan partnership with Tencent-backed WeBank in tatters.’

    ‘Danke manages rental apartments across 13 cities in China. Financial stress for the 415,000-apartment managing company started to show as Covid-19 cooled the rental market, but escalated dramatically after CEO Gao Jing was detained in June on unrelated grounds, and investors grew more disenchanted.’

    ‘At the root of the company’s collapse was a business model that encouraged tenants to take out loans from WeBank to pay a year’s rent up front. From mid-2018 to the end of 2019, the percentage of Danke’s tenants who paid up with these risky loans grew to at least 91%. The loans allowed Danke to expand but increased its leverage to an unsustainable level.’

    ‘WeBank, which also works with Danke rivals Ziroom and Beijing 5i5j, tried to salvage its partnership with the company by working out a plan to reduce loan-backed rent payments to 40% by the end of this year and meet a government-mandated 30% target by the end of 2021. But as Danke’s financial crisis intensified last month, WeBank terminated the partnership and Danke’s fate took a dive.’

    https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-12-07/picking-up-the-pieces-as-one-of-chinas-biggest-apartment-rental-platforms-crumbles-101636681.html

    I would say, the answer is flying self driving taxis, but maybe pig farming?

  4. ‘A continuous boom in pork prices has seen pig farmers profit as other industries look on in envy. Perhaps surprisingly, those who have turned to pig breeding include China’s real estate conglomerates’

    I used to follow China’s housing market. Then Xi said “no bad news!” But when they had a garlic bubble, I decided the country was just silly and don’t spend much time on it.

  5. ‘When I used to give presentations on the state budget situation, I’d joke that we should make sure to lock the windows on our 51st-floor office because by the end someone might want to jump out the window’

    You guys are fooked Brandon.

    1. Regulator Worries US CRE Markets Could Collapse

      The FSOC is concerned that the cash flow declines for CRE assets in the last year could become permanent.

      The Financial Stability Oversight Council has just issued its annual report on the risks to the US’ financial stability. One of the dangers it is concerned about is a collapse in the US commercial real estate market.

      https://www.globest.com/2020/12/07/regulator-worries-us-cre-markets-could-collapse/

  7. The Tenderloin is the only neighborhood near the city center where the average price drops below $2,000.

    Don’t housing advocates claim that the high number of homeless is due to the lack of affordable housing? And IIRC, the Tenderloin is one of the poopiest nabes in San Fran. So, in the Tenderpoin area, shouldn’t the number of homeless and their droppings be dropping as more and more of them can afford the dropping rents?

  8. Any who mentioned this in the last 10 years was called a racist.

    “The lack of connection between soaring housing prices and tepid local wages in Metro Vancouver is caused in large part by hidden foreign ownership”

    1. The best are the children of the superrich from places like China living in Canada claiming poverty (because no job) and getting government checks. Nothing like driving a Ferrari and getting a few hundred a month from the provincial government!

  9. Gee – couldn’t see that one coming.

    Now – how much was paid out by the generous welfare state?

    “An earlier Statistics Canada study found the median value of a detached Vancouver home bought by immigrants who arrived via the investor program was $2.55 million, but the same group ‘declared an average of only around $20,000 in income in the first 10 years after landing.’”

    1. Now – how much was paid out by the generous welfare state?

      The bigger question is how much global income was undeclared? At least in the USA once you get a green card you get taxed on everything you make everywhere, just like you were a US citizen. If Canada is the same, then the real issue is all that undeclared income that’s hard to track down because it’s made in China and probably stays in China.

      1. if you are a current Canadian resident, you have to pay taxes on worldwide income and declare your financial assets. Now once you declare yourself a non-resident and can show you dont have ties, you dont have to pay taxes

        There is hijinks going on here. If the income is from China, Europe, S.America, you still have to declare and pay taxes (usually under a joint tax regime).

  11. ‘A new book by Canadian scholars warns about politicians and bureaucrats making decisions out of fear and panic and implementing COVID-19 policies that are disproportionate to the problem.’

    “The chief emotion associated with a moral panic is fear. In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, fear has fuelled many disproportionate reactions, especially in regard the medical responses to the pandemic,” says the book, titled “COVID-19: The Politics of a Pandemic Moral Panic.” It is authored by political scientists Dr. Barry Cooper and Dr. Macro Navarro-Génie, both senior fellows with think tank Frontier Centre for Public Policy.’

    “The focus of any analysis of moral panic is whether an issue is distorted and exaggerated in such a way as to produce an obvious over-reaction on the part of social and political authorities. … Instead of promoting their ability to keep their citizens safe, governments (especially in Canada) tried to scare them and were successful, at least in the short term.”

    ‘Navarro-Génie, also president of the Haultain Research Institute, said in an interview that the main purpose of writing the book was to show that “it’s the reaction to the virus that is producing these policies that are harming people.”

    ‘The authors add that some have even benefited from the sense of panic. “There are people who have benefited from this, not necessarily monetarily but in terms of power,” Cooper, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said in an interview. Cooper and Navarro-Génie say “political actors” and “moral entrepreneurs” saw the opportunity to use the pandemic as a means to expand and consolidate their power.’

    “A year ago, they were completely anonymous bureaucrats. … Now everybody knows who they are and if you don’t think that these actual individuals find that exhilarating, you have to be remarkably naive with respect to human nature. Of course they enjoy the notoriety, and they enjoy the ability to make decisions for the rest of us,” says Cooper, noting the book’s reference to “power-knowledge,” a term coined by French historian and philosopher Michel Foucault.’

    ‘Navarro-Génie argues that governments should make decisions based on “rational arguments, on thoughtful consideration, and on well-considered justifications, [because if] we base policies for an entire country … on the basis of fear and panic, then the whole edifice of public policy kind of falls apart.”

    ‘The book notes some of the harms caused by lockdowns, and Navarro- Génie expands on that in a related blog, listing resulting problems such as bankrupt businesses, loss of jobs, and mounting debt, as well as spikes in suicides, drug overdoses, family breakdowns, domestic violence, and child abuse.’

    “We know that locking people down produce[s] an enormous amount of consequences that are harmful to public health,” he says. “Not just to the economy and not just the businesses, but to people’s health, people’s mental health and people’s physical health.”

    ‘In terms of scientific pushback, Navarro-Génie said Stanford University professor and epidemiologist John Ioannidis “started criticizing the models and published dissenting models from the existing ones authored by Ferguson” from the very beginning but he was “virtually ignored.”

    “The media at the mass level has not been serving the public in that they have either ignored or are simply not covering these debates that are still going on,” he says, adding that media have either been persuaded by the discourse from officials or there are “fewer journalists in the media that are able to follow what tend to be somewhat complex issues.”

    ‘The book says that when media reports “are filled with the ruminations of columnists masquerading as amateur epidemiologists, doomsday predictions, and the demand for great sacrifices are as inevitable as the intended consequence: an enhanced moral panic.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-book-warns-about-adopting-pandemic-policies-out-of-panic-disproportionate-to-the-problem_3605278.html

    1. “moral entrepreneurs”

      Sanctimonious moral entrepreneurs is every elected official in the democrat party.

  14. We The Inevitable
    @WeTheInevitable
    ·
    5h
    She is now the teacher that her students will never forget! They will all be like “remember that one teacher we had who went full Karen and told us all to kill ourselves”….good times!
    Quote Tweet
    Katie Daviscourt🇺🇸
    @KatieDaviscourt
    · 13h
    UNHINGED: Teacher from Oregon has a complete mental breakdown over COVID and yells at families that are rallying to ReOpen their businesses.
    Show this thread

    https://twitter.com/WeTheInevitable/status/1335928981519003650

    1. Probably a National Teacher of the Year award winner in a Harris/Biden administration.

      KILL YOURSELVES!!

      I AM A FUC#ING TEACHER!!

      I WORK AT SCHOOL!!

      FU#K YOU!!!!!

      FU#K YOU!

      I AM A TEACHER!!!

      I TEACH STUDENTS!!

      1. I watched and listened one more time and I may have misquoted the Teacher of the Year and therefore owe her an apology.

        Instead of saying…

        KILL YOURSELVES!!

        She may have screeched…

        BIT#H FU#K YOURSELF!!!

        If that is the case I apologize and hope that this in no way has any affect on your opportunity to be selected National Teacher of the Year.

      2. Jeff I’m sitting on top of a 11,000 foot mountain right now.

        Lockdown lovers hate exercise and hate vitamin D, which btw are two of the best natural immune defenses against CCP Flu.

        1. “Jeff I’m sitting on top of a 11,000 foot mountain right now.”

          I am guessing there are no Biden voters up there screaming…

          I AM A FUC#ING TEACHER!!

          I WORK AT SCHOOL!!

          FU#K YOU!!!!!

          FU#K YOU!

    2. I went to the bank today and one guy decided to play Covid cop and got in an argument with another customer who was wondering out of the line and not standing on his social distancing mark on the pavement.

      Last night I was a rebel. I went to Pollo Loco, got a burrito, and sat down and ate it at a table that was closed for social distancing. If it were Australia, the covid cops would track me down through my IP address for posting this, come break down my door, and hall me off to a quarantine facility.

  15. From Delano Magazine. “Luxembourg has recorded a 50% increase in house prices since 2015, and still prices continue to grow. Director of the systemic risk centre and professor of finance at the London School of Economics Jean-Pierre Zigrand gave an enlightening talk to examine the ‘bubbliness’ of Luxembourg housing. To understand the market, you have to understand what drives it. Zigrand explained prices are high not because rental is high and we value housing, but because we treat the house as an asset. This formula is the fundamental theorem of asset pricing, which says the fundamental price of the property is what the market expects.”

    “The price of property is equal to E what you expect in future rentals. Bt is the bubble component. ‘If there is one, the price is bigger than the fundamental value. You pay more than what it’s worth because you expect to sell it for even more to someone else later on,’ he said.”

    “Some property in Luxembourg is bought using international capital, which means that cycles in other parts of the world will find their way through rates and buying into the Luxembourg market. ‘This makes it a bit vulnerable because that money can be pulled out again. The cycle is global and Luxembourg is no different from all the others.’”

    “Zigrand says: ‘When prices go up, you also perceive there to be less risks, because everyone is happy and you have money, volatilities are coming down […] The real risk is the one you cannot see, it’s in green. When you think there is no risk, then people take very risky positions.’”

    – The very definition of an asset bubble. It could be tulips, stocks, or houses.
    – It’s a cycle. It’s not linear, or “a permanently high plateau,” meaning that what goes up, must come down. Asset bubbles always pop. They can get bigger than anyone thinks possible, but then the crash is worse, since diving from a higher peak.
    – The definition of moral hazard.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard
    “In economics, moral hazard occurs when an entity has an incentive to increase its exposure to risk because it does not bear the full costs of that risk. “

    See also “bailouts.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO4N9B1g3Do
    An Economic Lesson from Andy Griffith
    17,843 views | Jun 11, 2009
    Plot summary for:
    The Andy Griffith Show- “Bailey’s Bad Boy”
    “Andy arrests 19 year-old Ronald Bailey after he sideswipes farmer Fletch Dilbeck’s truck. The young man drives a flashy convertible and obviously comes from a well-off family. He also treats Andy and Barney as hicks, telling them that once his father gets to hear of what they’ve done, they’ll get fired. Andy takes it all with a grain of salt and goes about his business. Ron finds the local routine, such as closing the jail on Sunday and taking the prisoners home for dinner, all a little strange but it’s when he sees Andy’s relationship with Opie and Andy’s approach to parenting that he begins to re-evaluate his priorities. When his father’s lawyer Arthur Harrington appears, it becomes apparent that the fix is in and the young man is again off the hook. He makes an important decision however.”

    – No one will get hurt from the global frenzy and mania we know as housing bubble 2.0. /s
    – Is the world financial we’re now living in closer to “Bedford Falls,” or “Pottersville?” It’s left for the reader to decide.

    1. Asset bubbles always pop. They can get bigger than anyone thinks possible, but then the crash is worse, since diving from a higher peak.

      What’s different about this massive everything bubble is that a nation’s currency – its printing press – is being used to prop it up and make it bigger. This is an unprecedented situation with no historical context by which to compare.

      1. the consequences are usually higher inflation (and then sometimes hyper).

        The problem is that for some reason (cheap junk from China including hightech phones, lower gas prices etc.), inflation in regular priced items is not taking off. Just housing in some locations

        1. inflation in regular priced items is not taking off

          The people who buy the vast majority of these things don’t have more money, they have less.

          Buying a house for 10 x your earnings seems doable for many if the money is cheap enough.

          Buying more “regular things” that you don’t need and can’t afford (after paying too much for a house) has to go on a credit card, which isn’t cheap and is more obviously financial suicide.

      2. “This is an unprecedented situation with no historical context by which to compare.”

        https://mises.org/wire/john-law-and-mississippi-bubble-300-years-later
        John Law and the Mississippi Bubble – 300 Years Later
        Alasdair Macleod | 09/08/2018

        “The Lesson for Today”

        “Scientists often set up a laboratory simulation to assess the likely outcome of a real situation. A laboratory simulation was, in effect, done for today’s economists by John Law exactly three hundred years ago.”

        “In many senses, the Law episode was a perfect replication of the current situation. Law convinced himself that France’s economic problems could be resolved by the expansion of unbacked paper money, just as mainstream economists do today. At the heart of Law’s experiment was a belief that the state should control the money, and it was not to be left to the choice of the markets. Law defied the established monetary wisdom of the day, just as Keynes did when he set Say’s law to one side so as to create a role for the state.”

        – As I recall John Law only escaped with his life by dressing as a woman and fleeing the country. It’s my hope that the central banksters will have a worse outcome when the SHTF. BTW, I don’t think that’s too far from the present, since the Fed balance sheet is now growing exponentially. “Trees don’t grow to the sky.”

    2. Having lived thru the 2006ish housing mania, and watching history repeat itself in recent years, appreciate the site.
      Saw a TV commercial for NewDay USA, a mortgage company, with its tanned CEO near weeping and talking about the “noble service” his company provides.
      Anyone else remember Angelo Mozillo/Countrywide. (sorry if I butchered the name)

      1. Looked up New Day USA; it’s a VA lender. God bless the vets. But apparently they should be careful with New Day.

        https://www.npr.org/2020/11/11/933175639/their-service-entitles-them-to-low-cost-loans-but-veterans-often-pay-more

        “When we looked at the spread, candidly, we were quite surprised that it was as wide as it was,” Boyaggi says. “The best lenders and the worst lenders were so far apart from one another.”

        The study found Navy Federal Credit Union offered the lowest rates. At the high end was a lender called New Day USA, which sponsors the Army-Navy football game. New Day’s TV ads, featuring plenty of American flags, say that it wants to “do whatever is best for the individual service person.”

        But the study found on average, New Day’s APR was 1.25 percentage points higher compared to Navy Federal. Over the life of a $300,000, 30-year loan, that’s more than $70,000 in additional interest payments.

      2. We remember Angelo Mozillo very well. Along with Jamie “God’s work sob sob” Dimon. In my area (suburbs of DC) there doesn’t appear to be much mortgage advertising.

        1. Along with Jamie “God’s work sob sob” Dimon.

          No, that was Lloyd Blankfein. There’s a special place in hell for that POS.

        2. Everybody in DC paying cash?

          That is a pretty affluent area I’ve heard.

          The craziest thing I remember from the ’06 -’07 experience was the sudden conversion of long standing apartment complexes into condo projects. That would be DEFCON 1 if it ever happens again.

          1. DM, sure, those wealthy defense contractors (not the fedgov employees) have the cash to buy a $400K house outright, but at that price level their kids would have to go to school with ESLs aspiring to MS-13. So instead, they use their $400K to buy a $1.6 million house and they’re in just as much debt as everyone else.

            It’s not just here. A dozen years ago I lived in the Midwest. There was a wide range of housing prices, from $110K little blue-collar ranches near the tracks, to $140K farmettes 5 miles out of the city limits, to very nice $350K 1980s upper-middle class homes, to $650K flimsy fake stuccoed new-build McMansions near the golf course. Guess what the $150K/year managers chose to live in. 🙄

          2. ESLs aspiring to MS-13

            Sounds like having a few of those around in every town might be a feature rather than a bug if you’re trying to keep everyone on the treadmill of paying everything they make to the REIC.

            The advantage of the little towns in flyover country is that upper class and lower class go to the same schools, so overpaying for housing is optional. Most still do, but nobody held a gun to their head…literally.

          3. upper class and lower class go to the same schools

            A lot of small towns have parochial and other private schools, where tuition has been on the rise since the teachers are now all lay people. Not to mention the rise in homeschooling, which I expect our Democrat overlords to eventually ban.

          4. “…upper class and lower class go to the same schools…”

            I would imagine that the educated professional households have guidance and structure for their children, and their scholastic progress is monitored. Juxtapose that with nearly every manual-labor household has a lifted 4×4 pickup truck in the driveway, regular tobacco use by both parents and the television is on all day long.

          5. Yes, the upper class kids still have huge advantages, because their parents care about education and put their money where their mouth is. But it’s still a much better system for the lower class kids than what it becomes as soon as there are enough upper class kids to form a separate school district.

      3. Yeah I see that commercial frequently. The guy is a real slimeball… the caricature of the worst used car salesman ever.

  16. My Canadian GF is disturbed by the Liberal Insanity being test ballooned by the Finance Minister, one Chrystia Freeland. She pointed out recently that Canadians have savings accounts and that Canada needs stimulus. She calls these savings accounts “Pre-loaded Stimulus” and called for “suggestions” on how Canada should use these funds to get the economy going. She also mentioned that they’re going to be in lockdown until next summer.

    The key words will get you there if you want to hear for yourself.

    1. Found an article from bnn bloomibergi. At least on face value, it doesn’t look that bad. All they’re saying is that people have stashed money away and once people can go out again, they will spend it. It’s not as if they’re planning to raid savings accounts to redistribute to the unemployed — at least not from what I’ve read. Now, if people don’t spend those savings, they can “policy shift” whatever that means.

      1. It’s not as if they’re planning to raid savings accounts

        People I know who speak Canadian aren’t so sure they agree with you.

        1. People I know who speak Canadian aren’t so sure they agree with you.

          From the article: “If it turns out that as things re-open and consumers are still reluctant, then it may make sense for policy to shift.”

          Either you spend it, or we will spend if for you!

  17. The accompanying video shows this maskless corona spittin’ Leftist Mall Santa who would have probably granted the little boy a sex change operation had he asked for it.

    Santa Gets Political And Makes Young Boy Cry After Refusing To Gift Him A Nerf Gun

    By Cullen McCue –
    December 7, 2020

    A mall Santa brought a young boy to tears recently after refusing to gift him a nerf gun for Christmas. “Nope, no guns,” the activist Santa said to a child when asked for a nerf gun. The kid then turned around in confusion while liberal Santa dug the hole deeper. “If your dad wants to get it for you that’s fine, but I can’t bring it to you,” he continued.

    Liberal Santa then offered a list of alternatives before the kid started crying.

    https://realitycircuit.com/2020/12/07/santa-gets-political-and-makes-young-boy-cry-after-refusing-to-gift-him-a-nerf-gun/

    1. Where is Mr. Sawyer when you need him?

      I’m sure the mall management was thrilled with the bad publicity

    1. No matter what happens, I’m proud of Trump for how hard he has fought these scumbag globalists. Most men would have wilted long ago, but he continues to bring it to them, both barrels.

          2. ‘This WITNESS Deserves A MEDAL! “I signed something and if I am wrong I go to PRISON, did YOU?”

            Damn straight!

            Rep Johnson wsn’t quite getting the point that the poll book was off by a hundred-thousand was he but I really liked when she said…

            What about the turnout rate? A hundred and twenty percent?

            Reply

            Let’s let Representative Johnson ask his questions.

      2. No matter what happens, I’m proud of Trump for how hard he has fought these scumbag globalists. Most men would have wilted long ago, but he continues to bring it to them, both barrels.

        I have a similar feeling. I don’t even like the guy but I’ve developed a respect for him that I don’t have for many politicians. It would have been so easy for him to cut a deal or go along to get along and it appears he never even considered it. I love that.

        1. I have a similar feeling

          He didn’t know how hard the road would be, but he never quit. In my book, an American Hero. Thankfully he is not alone in this fight.

          1. He didn’t know how hard the road would be

            I have to somewhat disagree. He had a better idea than most given his lifestyle and connections. Ivanka dated a Rothschild. Giuliani, former NYC mayor during 9/11 and HRC opponent shortly thereafter, was a good friend.

        2. Personal story we were booked for both a Trump and Bloomberg holiday parties then 9/11 happened, Both cancelled and both paid us in full

    2. ‘On alleged election fraud, “I think the case has been made,”…

      – There has been a virtual coup d’état in action since Trump was elected in 2016. The Left, including the Deep/Administrative State, first tried to de-legitimize Trump by calling him a Russian operative as aided and abetted by the MSM (i.e. Democratic operatives with bylines).

      Since they couldn’t make impeachment stick by their nefarious schemes, including the infamous “Steele dossier,” the next step was to scam the election itself.

      – We’re sliding from Constitutional Republic to Banana Republic. Once the U.S. elections can be compared to Venezuela, then you know the end is near. The end here will be decided I think, by the Second Amendment. There comes a point where “enough is enough,” and “heads will roll.”

      – I’m of the mindset that “heads on a pike” is too good for those responsible. Still waiting for their just deserts to be meted out. No consequences, no change. Let the punishment fit the crime.

    1. From what I have read, Mao came close to losing control during the Cultural Revolution.

      Not sure what pleases me more: seeing the thugs turn on his honor, or watching the LAPD FINALLY do something about mobs. There was a bit there where a tiny LAPD copette kept hitting a thug half heartedly with her billy club and it had almost no effect.

  22. Has anybody noticed that the media picks the worst numbers they can to try to hype up the COVID shamdemic? For instance, they’ll cherry pick the highest daily deaths reported as if that’s every day of the week, but gloss over the lowest day. We all know the death numbers are faked anyway, but they still avoid the lower days in favor of the highest they can possibly report. It’s like they are hoping for more dead.

    1. gloss over the lowest day

      They never mention that it is a day that deaths were reported, not the day they occurred. Some of them are up to two weeks past. One of our posters used to promote this disinformation here.

      The big media is a poison well.

      1. One of our posters? Hopefully not me. I just look at the 7-day average, which smooths out the reporting delays and cherry-picking.

    1. Tie these politicians’ salaries to the shutdowns – meaning they don’t get paid during shutdowns – and you would never see a single shutdown.

    2. They think they’ve won. But really, all they are doing is severing the tenuous hold they have on moderates.

    3. As we were leaving, I passed and talked to two moms with three girls playing. No one was wearing a mask and we agreed that this is completely ridiculous.

  25. A personal Covid data point. My daughter worked Thanksgiving day and stopped by our 1000 sqft apt. on her way home. My wife and I knew she hadn’t been feeling great but did not know she’d taken a Covid test several days before (Monday).

    She stayed for about an hour and half. Ate some food, chit chatted. We didn’t wear masks and did not make much effort to social distance. I sat shoulder to shoulder with her on the couch for 20 minutes. We both gave her a kiss on the cheek when she left.

    About 30 minutes later she called, crying, and said: “I just gave you guys Covid” and sent us a screenshot of her positive test result. My wife and I have been “quarantined” since that day. We’ve taken Emergen-C (like Airborne) morning and night plus extra Vitamin-C and D. Been feeling ok.

    We did the PCR test on Friday and got the results today – both of us negative.

    I’m not sure what to conclude, if anything.

    1. I’m not sure what to conclude

      Perhaps that it’s not as contagious as we are told?

      Heard though the grapevine at work that Beijing is fully open for business. People still wear masks but that there is no social distancing.

      1. To the contrary, I think it’s VERY contagious. But there’s incredible individual variation in the body’s response to it: age, blood sugar control, blood type and/or Neanderthal genetics, cross-immunity from previous coronavirus colds, Vitamin D levels, and tendency toward chronic fatigue.

        There is a hypothesis that upwards of 40% of the population already has some cross-immunity. It’s possible that Sod was either already cross-immune, or has been exposed specifically to the virus and recovered without knowing it.

    2. “…she’d taken a Covid test several days before (Monday).”

      Was hers also the PCR test? Any comorbidities among the three of you? What is the outbreak status in your area? Do you have a family physician that can help with access to prescriptions? Would you relinquish control to the medical establishment, or are you able to establish in-home care? You should generate a crude decision plan, add to it, clean it up, etc., and share it to maintain structure.

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