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As Soon As A Home Becomes An Excellent Return On Investment, It Grows Out Of Reach For What Locals Earn

A report from Westword in Colorado. “Victoria Macaskill, an independent broker and co-owner of Denver Homes, says there are things the average person can do to compete. Some of them carry a certain degree of risk, but all of them improve a house hunter’s shot at winding up on top. ‘Right now, all of the offers I’ve seen that are getting accepted have language about the appraisal gap, which is where the buyer guarantees the seller that they will pay either the total amount or some amount if there’s a gap between the purchase price and the appraisal price. For example, if the purchase price is for $500,000 and the home appraises for $475,000, the buyer is guaranteeing the $25,000 difference. Sometimes the buyer will need to restructure the loan, which is why the lender is so important. Instead of saying 20 percent down, they might say 10 percent down and use that other 10 percent to cover the appraisal gap.'”

“‘Single-family homes were up 6 percent in March over February, which is pretty significant, especially if prices keep going up. If buyers decide to wait three to six months to buy instead of paying $25,000 more than they’d planned now, the prices could be up a lot more than $25,000 by then. And it can take months to find a house right now. If a buyer sees that ‘if it takes me six months to find something, I might be outpriced,’ they may have to compromise on the features of a home today instead of waiting.'”

From KUSI in California. “Inventory of available homes is especially low right now, making home prices soar even more, explained Jim Bottrell, Owner at Jim Bottrell Real Estate Team. It’s important to remember that lenders qualify a person on a payment, not a purchase amount, Bottrell emphasized.”

From ABC 7. “Southern California’s blistering-hot real estate market isn’t just driving up prices — it’s also driving sellers crazy trying to find a moving company. Trucking companies are having a hard time hiring enough big truck drivers. It also turns out considerably more people are moving out of California than are moving in. That means interstate moving trucks are piling up in other states.”

“‘Right now, it’s such a volume out of California that these guys aren’t getting shipments back in,’ explained Jill Longo, owner of Andy’s Transfer & Storage in Glendale. ‘It’s an exodus.'”

From Socket Site in California. “Despite some misreports in the media, apartment rents in San Francisco haven’t started to rebound. And in fact, the weighted average asking rent for an apartment in the city has now inched down to $3,050 month, which is down 24 percent on a year-over-year basis, down over 25 percent since the pandemic hit, and nearly 32 percent below a 2015-era peak, with the average asking rent for a studio in the city holding at under $1,900 a month and down nearly 35 percent from peak.”

From Global News in Canada. “Affordable housing advocates say young workers who remain shut out of the housing market are the collateral damage of policymakers unwilling to make big moves to cool housing prices. Economists at the Bank of Montreal recently issued a report citing the need to break ‘market psychology and the belief that prices will only rise further’ and ‘dampen the speculation and fear-of-missing-out that those expectations are creating.'”

“Policy responses to mounting calls have so far been muted. Realtors, economists and affordable housing advocates all point to the same thing driving bidding wars and climbing prices: a lack of supply. According to Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze, which advocates for young workers, the other major factor is an unwillingness to enact policy that would meaningfully bring down prices.”

“‘On the one hand, we’ve wanted an affordable place to call home and on the other hand, we’ve wanted it to be a good return on investment. Those two things can’t hang together for very long because as soon as a home becomes an excellent return on investment, it grows out of reach for what locals earn,’ Kershaw told Global News.”

From The Age in Australia. “Melbourne’s glut of empty CBD offices and apartments could be used to revive the inner city’s ailing creative sector, according to a leading urban designer. Hodyl and Co managing director Leanne Hodyl, who conducted a built form review of the CBD for the Victorian government, said there was more empty office and student apartment accommodation in the city than there was demand for either.”

“Ms Hodyl poured cold water on previous proposals to convert empty office space into residential accommodation, saying without international students there was little call for more apartments. ‘There’s definitely not a high demand for apartment living in the city at the moment, we’ve lost international students, we’ve lost immigration, obviously. So there’s actually not a demand – you could convert them, but I don’t know who would be moving in.'”

“Office vacancy rates hit 13.2 per cent in March, according to Macquarie. And more than a year after international borders shut and much of Melbourne’s thriving international student population was forced to abandon the city, apartment vacancies are also high. A one-bedroom flat in the CBD recently sold for $180,000, 30 per cent less than its owners paid for it 15 years earlier.”

From Stuff New Zealand. “An apartment in an Auckland CBD building sold for just $5000 at auction last week, and more units like it are expected to hit the market in the coming months. The apartment has two bedrooms, two bathrooms, two car parks, and a balcony with views across the Waitamata harbour. But it is in the Scene One apartment block on Beach Road in downtown Auckland, a block plagued by remediation issues and ongoing litigation. It is also a leasehold property, which means it comes with annual ground rent costs of $22,004.”

“Scene One doesn’t have a body corporate, so there is no body corp levy, but it does have an annual operating expenses fee. For this apartment, the fee is $9460. With rates costing $1683 a year, the apartment owner’s outgoings are $33,147 each year. Listing agent Rickus Moll, from Ray White City Apartments, said the apartment was rented at $750 a week but the outgoings cancelled out most of the rental earnings, leaving income of about $40 a week.”

“While last week’s sale price was particularly low, apartments in the Scene One building often sell for prices well below the apartment market’s median value, and below what they were bought for. In 2019, a one-bedroom apartment in the building sold for $20,000. It was bought back in 2002 for $311,200, QV’s records show.”

“City Sales recently listed an apartment in the building for auction with a $0 reserve. However, the vendors’ lawyers stopped the auction at the last moment. Scott Dunn, from City Sales, said the lawyers felt it was too risky to run the auction as the apartment might sell for nothing. ‘We ended up selling it by negotiation for $30,000 unconditionally. An existing owner in the building bought it.'”

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This Post Has 108 Comments

  1. ‘Despite some misreports in the media, apartment rents in San Francisco haven’t started to rebound’

    SF Chronicle, cough! The WSJ just put out one of these on NYC rentals. Why do they do this when rents are still plummeting?

  2. A one-bedroom flat in the CBD recently sold for $180,000, 30 per cent less than its owners paid for it 15 years earlier…apartments in the Scene One building often sell for prices well below the apartment market’s median value, and below what they were bought for. In 2019, a one-bedroom apartment in the building sold for $20,000. It was bought back in 2002 for $311,200′

    Now that’s some red hotcakes right there! I don’t have a calculator handy, so what’s the excellent return on a$$ pounding here?

    1. the apartment owner’s outgoings are $33,147 each year.
      I remember seeing some condos for sale in S. FL for $10-12K during the Housing Crash because of Crazy Golf course membership costs and HOA/clubhouse fees.

      1. Never in a million years will I buy a condo or any piece of real estate with HOA fees. It’s bad enough to have to be at the mercy of the county assessor, but allowing a bunch of busybodies to reach into your pocket as they see fit is an exercise in stupidity I’m not willing to engage in.

        1. I’m grateful to our landlord for shouldering the HOA, taxes, yardcare, and major maintenance. It saves us a bundle compared to what homedebtors pay.

  3. ‘It’s important to remember that lenders qualify a person on a payment, not a purchase amount’

    Now that’s some sound lending!

    ‘if the purchase price is for $500,000 and the home appraises for $475,000, the buyer is guaranteeing the $25,000 difference. Sometimes the buyer will need to restructure the loan, which is why the lender is so important. Instead of saying 20 percent down, they might say 10 percent down and use that other 10 percent to cover the appraisal gap’

    Nobody is putting 10% down Vicky. Westword is a one-trick REIC pony show anymore.

    1. I wonder if that dingbat realizes she just unwittingly offered the definition of sub prime?

        1. 10% down is fantasy is more like it. Anyone who does it now is setting themselves up for a 100% equity loss the next time prices crater and zero down subprime borrowers walk away in droves.

      1. Or you leave the greater Denver metro area . That said, Larimer and Weld counties are also getting Californicated. I’m sure Colo Springs is no better. Pueblo?

        1. No plans to buy real estate in the Denver area anytime soon, if ever. I just moved within the same building to a newly renovated (millennial grey!!!) top floor corner unit with mountain views. Don’t need to plan anything beyond each subsequent lease renewal.

          I haven’t bought out the neighbor’s adjoining lot yet, but I can camp on the paid in full Deplorable family compound in Southern Colorado anytime I want.

        2. I would rent and wait to see how the w@h situation pans out. That alone is going to take a couple years. If companies allow full-time w@h, then anyone could move anywhere and still work. If companies want 1-2 days a week and you’re stuck in Denver, at least it will be 1-2 years later and some of the frenzy will have burned itself out.

          2. “If companies allow full-time w@h, then anyone could move anywhere and still work.”

            They could hire a former “cobra in a basket” snake charmer from Bangalore, India for $500/month. Why waste the coin on some phat Yankee who intends to sue for repetitive motion workplace injury?

          3. then anyone could move anywhere and still work

            My friend who’s moving to Austin works for Alameda County (NorCal). She’s already been living in Murrieta (SoCal) with her parents for the last few months. Her employer may allow her to continue working from Austin.

          1. Limon, Sterling? The possibilities are endless. I suppose there is also the western slope, though prices in Grand Junction are frothy too.

  5. ‘Affordable housing advocates say young workers who remain shut out of the housing market are the collateral damage of policymakers unwilling to make big moves to cool housing prices. Economists at the Bank of Montreal recently issued a report citing the need to break ‘market psychology and the belief that prices will only rise further’ and ‘dampen the speculation and fear-of-missing-out that those expectations are creating’

    ‘Policy responses to mounting calls have so far been muted. Realtors, economists and affordable housing advocates all point to the same thing driving bidding wars and climbing prices: a lack of supply’

    Ahem…

    Canada Says Property Bubble “Not Great” For Locals, Good For Foreign Investors

    April 12, 2021

    ‘A Canadian official in charge of housing policy confirmed the current market is not an accident. Instead, it’s a conscious decision where the government picked the winners and losers. TVO aired an interview with MP Adam Vaughan yesterday, discussing housing policy. In the interview, Vaughan, who helps oversee the CMHC, said price drops are not an option. The minister also said the market doesn’t work for locals, but is great for foreign investors. He also implied the strategy they might use to fix the market is one they were warned against.’

    ‘The government refuses to let prices drop, and will support inefficiencies. When Vaughan was asked if he would allow home prices to fall 10%, he tried to explain how hard it would be on homeowners.’

    ‘When discussing a price drop, the minister said “I can understand why that is seen as a positive thing for people who are trying to get into the market, but hands up if you’d like to see 10 percent of the equity in your home suddenly disappear overnight.”

    ‘He then implied Canadian homes are financial instruments, not necessarily for housing. “We know that Canadians rely on homeownership to secure their place in the economy now. But also as they retire we have to be very careful that whatever steps we take to protect the investments Canadians have made in their homes at the same time.”

    https://betterdwelling.com/canada-says-property-bubble-not-great-for-locals-good-for-foreign-investors/#_

    1. how hard it would be on homeowners

      So says the arsonist. Since your agency insures against loss on the mortgages, you might be lying.

    2. ‘A Canadian official in charge of housing policy confirmed the current market is not an accident. Instead, it’s a conscious decision where the government picked the winners and losers.’

      ‘The government refuses to let prices drop, and will support inefficiencies. When Vaughan was asked if he would allow home prices to fall 10%, he tried to explain how hard it would be on homeowners.’

      ‘He then implied Canadian homes are financial instruments, not necessarily for housing. “We know that Canadians rely on homeownership to secure their place in the economy now. But also as they retire we have to be very careful that whatever steps we take to protect the investments Canadians have made in their homes at the same time.”’

      – This is so f*cked!
      – So basically, RRE is the Canadian economy. Nobody works anymore; they just buy & sell shacks to one another. This is the global OECD economy now. It could be, and, in fact is, AU, US, UK, and pretty much every other country that was infected with the Central Bank/Keynesian virus. What a crock! It’s a stealth wealth transfer from the 99% to the 1%. This doesn’t end well once the 99% figure out they’re being screwed. Apparently not yet, but pitchforks and torches might be the new hot cakes coming soon. Are people really that obtuse? Are they ignorant or stupid? Yes, there’s a big difference.

      https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/canadas-a-real-estate-country-just-waiting-for-a-crash/article31457558/
      Opinion
      Canada’s a real estate nation, just waiting for a crash
      Konrad Yakabuski
      Published August 18, 2016 Updated May 16, 2018

      “Hewers of wood and drawers of water, not. Canada is now a real estate nation, with little else to keep the economy from sinking into an even deeper funk. Gross domestic product shrank 0.1 per cent in May, and that’s after excluding the negative impact of Alberta’s wildfires on oil sands output. Yet, we’re still buying houses like there’s no tomorrow.”

      “And there may not be a tomorrow for the suckers who buy in at the peak, whenever it comes.”

      “The so-called economic rotation from oil to manufacturing exports that rate cuts (and the related decline in the Canadian dollar) were supposed to produce has not only failed to materialize but policy makers have pumped helium into an already overheated real estate sector that is masking structural weaknesses in the economy and setting us up for a bigger fall.”

      “It’s “difficult to believe that any progress has been made in terms of economic rotation. Indeed, the opposite appears to be the case, given real estate’s increasingly large share of economic output,” TD Bank economist Brian DePratto noted in a Thursday report. “Rising home prices do have positive knock-on effects for consumer spending, but over-reliance on the real estate market is hardly the sign of a healthy economy.””

      “The real estate sector’s share of GDP has grown 0.4 percentage points in the past two years alone, TD noted, while the share of everything else (including oil and manufacturing) has shrunk. Going back 10 years, to May, 2006, manufacturing output is down 11 per cent in real terms and mining (including oil) extraction is flat. But real estate’s contribution to GDP has surged 35 per cent since then.”

      https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2019/04/22/the-film-push-shows-how-housing-has-become-a-commodity-for-the-benefit-of-the-wealthy.html
      Star Columnists | Opinion
      The film Push shows how housing has become a commodity for the benefit of the wealthy
      By Christopher Hume | Star Columnist
      Mon., April 22, 2019

      “In cities around the world, housing is becoming a dwelling place for money rather than people.”

      “Toronto is no exception; for buyers and renters finding somewhere to live here grows harder every day. As costs go through the roof, an increasing number of Torontonians, especially the young, find themselves forced out of town.”

      “In London, U.K., whole neighbourhoods have been hollowed out as they are bought up by foreign investors and private equity firms. The new owners, who have little or no interest in letting their properties, would rather leave them empty than deal with the hassle of tenants and their endless demands for basic services.”

      “As Swedish director Fredrik Gertten makes clear in his compelling documentary, Push, the financial sector has turned housing into a commodity, one that can be bought and sold dozens of times in the course of an hour. The notion, established by the United Nations, that housing is a basic human right now seems an antiquated nicety, a leftover from a more ambitious age. What remains now is the right of the rich to get richer.”

      ““Finance is an extractive sector,” notes Dutch-American sociologist Saskia Sassen in one of several on-camera interviews. “It might as well be mining.” Finance, she points out, exists to squeeze every last drop of value out of any given asset.”

      ““This is not at all about housing,” Sassen explains. “Buildings function as assets.” Gentrification, she points out, is the least of it. “It’s much deeper than that,” she argues. It’s more a wholesale appropriation of cities and the accompanying displacement of the poor and the middle classes to make way for the wealthy.”

      “Sassen’s dire insights are echoed by economist, author and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, who also speaks on camera. As he said recently, since the 1980s, “…the income share of the top 0.1 per cent has more than quadrupled and that of the top 1 per cent has almost doubled, that of the bottom 90 per cent has declined. Wages at the bottom, adjusted for inflation, are about the same as they were some 60 years ago. Wealth is even less equally distributed, with just three Americans having as much as the bottom 50 per cent.””

      “As incredible as these figures are, what’s less obvious is governments’ role not only in allowing this massive shift of wealth, but enabling it. The 2008 financial crisis, for instance, was a disaster for millions of homeowners, yet it turned out a gold mine for large fund management firms.”

      1. I posted this info before – it is kinda scary. Canada GDP 2020 – but in equivalent 2012 $s. major components of 1,4,5 depend on the bubble staying full.

        – real estate and leasing and rental- $264B
        – manufacturing – $186B
        – mining and oil and gas – $146B
        – finance and insurance – $145B
        – construction – $140B
        – health care and social assistance – $138B
        – …

      2. This real estate crash, punctuated by central banker intervention to reverse it, has been playing out for fourteen years already, since subprime imploded beginning in December 2006. The result of the bubble and the intervention to sustain it has been steadily declining housing affordability and rising homelessness, including throughout the housing price runup that preceded the subprime implosion.

        Get used to it, as nobody in high places wants to oversee the end game of the Housing Bubble or its aftermath.

        History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums.

        — Alan Greenspan

    3. hands up if you’d like to see 10 percent of the equity in your home suddenly disappear overnight.”

      Translation: If we allow it, homeowners will go mental and vote us out of office.

      So it’s all mental. Financially, the comps could look like a Bitcoin price chart and it wouldn’t affect homeowners financially. Even if they’re underwater they can just keep making payments, like Americans did in 2009. Homeowners would only be affected if (1) the 10% put them underwater and they suddenly had to sell (2) they wanted to cash out or HELOC and didn’t have any equity.

      3. “Even if they’re underwater they can just keep making payments, like Americans did in 2009.”

        As I recall that period, the ARM was resetting to higher payments, and the homeowners were unable to refinance as they were promised earlier.

  7. The normalization of medical tyranny.

    Washington Post — Vaccinated? Great. You should still wear a mask in public, experts say (4/26/2021):

    https://archive.is/QtSe9

    Mommy Fauci says no outdoor recess today 🙁

    1. But Ranney suggested that, as the country reaches 70 to 80 percent of adults vaccinated

      Last time I checked, it was 60-70%. I’m still waiting for J&J to be available. MD started allowing J&J but it looks like they don’t have supplies yet.

      BTW, they think they know what’s causing the blood clots. The adenovirus gets into the bloodstream, platelets see the adenovirus, the platelets and adenovirus interact and form some new thing to where the immune system thinks that the platelets are a virus. Immune system makes antibodies against its own platelets and goes into attack mode.

      1. gets into the bloodstream

        Supposed to be injected into muscle, not veins. When I got my shot the nurse did not draw back on the syringe to check if she had hit a vein.

        1. Yup, but there are still blood vessels in muscle tissue so I guess on rare occasions the needle can hit a vein large enough to make a difference.

          1. That’s why for an intramuscular shot you’re supposed to draw back before you push the plunger. If you get the red it’s a stop. Our doc friend can correct me if I’m wrong.

      2. “But Ranney suggested that, as the country reaches 70 to 80 percent of adults vaccinated”

        – “Herd immunity” starts at around 2/3 of population, say 70% for a round number. This is achieved by 1) infections w/ SARS-CoV-2 (CCP virus, Made in China), and surviving COVID-19 (disease), and 2) vaccinations. Probably already 1/3 of U.S. population is now the infected and survived cohort (1), and we’re rapidly approaching another 1/3 for cohort (2). If the vaccinations continue apace, we should see herd immunity by May or June, ’21. BTW, I’ve been vaccinated and now considered fully immunized. Let’s all get on with our lives. Fauci has an agenda and I mostly ignore his comments, which amazing, considering he’s paid almost $500k/yr. to “manage” (mis-manage) the CCP virus pandemic in the U.S. Finally, since this whole mess started in China, and likely was an escape from Wuhan Inst. of Virology, China should get the bill. ‘Seems fair to me.

          1. All the koolade and poison injections in the world won’t cover the bitter taste of CraterTaters and Crow.

        2. “Herd immunity” starts at around 2/3 of population, say 70% for a round number. … Probably already 1/3 of U.S. population is now the infected and survived cohort (1), and we’re rapidly approaching another 1/3 for cohort (2).

          I can’t agree. You’re forgetting a couple things:
          1. If a variant is more contagious, you need a higher % for herd immunity.*
          2. If a vaccine is less effective (i.e., if a variant can escape the vaccine), you need a higher % for her immunity.
          3. You can’t simply sum the 1/3 of population who’ve had the disease and 1/3 who are vaccinated. Those two cohorts overlap. We’re closer to 40% than 60%.

          ————–
          *The most contagious disease is measles, with an R0 of ~15. You need 95% of a population getting a 97% effective vaccine in order to achieve herd immunity and protect the 5% who can’t get the MMR for some reason. We had measles outbreaks for years until they started requiring a booster shot after 30 days, which raised the effectiveness of the vaccine from 93% to 97%.
          BTW, for COVID, R0 is 3-4. If we take action like masks and social distancing, R0 is ~1.

          1. If we take action like masks and social distancing, R0 is ~1.

            These two things were made up in 1918 by people who didn’t know.

            Anyway, if R = 1 and we’re at 50% as you say, it should be game over.

          2. “I can’t agree. You’re forgetting a couple things:

            – Disclaimer: I’m not a virologist, but do have some basic math, critical thinking, and common-sense skills, as apparently opposed to Fauci and those that would keep us in perpetual lock-down mode, where “science” = political response.
            – I think it’s a reasonable assumption that (1) and (2) aren’t overlapping cohorts, since once you’ve had the virus, there’s really no need to get vaccinated, from my view anyway. Maybe some get the jab, but it seems redundant.
            – Time will tell, but it’s best to ignore Fauci’s faux-science in any case.

            https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/13/how-close-are-we-to-herd-immunity-the-data-is-clear-enough/
            Local News
            Jacob Rascon, Anchor/Reporter
            Published: April 12, 2021 7:06 pm
            How close are we to herd immunity? The data is clear enough

            More than half of Texans have either recovered from the coronavirus or have been fully vaccinated as of Monday, according to state data.

            When 75% or so of us have immunity, we will have reached what is sometimes called “herd immunity,” when the virus can hardly spread even in the absence of safety precautions like physical distancing and masks.

            Herd immunity is a “calculated number based on the infectivity of a virus,” explained Baylor College of Medicine President Dr. Paul Klotman.

            For example, herd immunity for the highly contagious measles virus is 95%. For regular COVID-19, it’s closer to 65%.

            The more infectious variants make true herd immunity for this pandemic about 75%, Klotman said.

            “I think we’re getting close,” he added, pointing to local data.

            More than half a million people in the nine-county Greater Houston area have contracted COVID-19 officially, as of Monday.

            The true number is closer to 2.4 million, based on numerous “prevalence” studies, including a CDC study, showing that for every positive COVID-19, there are several others uncounted.

            About 1.5 million people in the region have been fully vaccinated. Together, that’s about 3.8 million people out of the 7.2 million who live in Greater Houston, or about 52%.

            “They’ll be some overlap” in the numbers, Klotman said.

            The data is approximate, but it also mirrors state data.

            Out of 29 million Texas, nearly six million have been fully vaccinated as of Monday and about 11 million have contracted the virus (officially, 2.5 million have tested positive).

            That’s nearly 17 million Texans with immunity or about 57%. When we get to about 22 million recovered or vaccinated, we will have reached “herd immunity.”

            The number of Texans vaccinated every week is increasing rapidly, and Dr. Klotman said we are on track to reach that high level of immunity by late June.

            “We’re getting there,” Dr. Klotman said. “About two months.”

            When asked on Fox News Sunday if he thought Texas had reached herd immunity, Gov. Greg Abbott said:

            “When you look at the senior population, for example, more than 70% of our seniors have received a vaccine shot. More than 50% of those who are 50-65 have received a vaccine shot.”

            “I don’t know what herd immunity is,” the governor added. “but when you add that to the people who have acquired immunity it looks like you could be very close to herd immunity.”

            Copyright 2021 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.

            https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2021/03/29/wsj-oped-herd-immunity-is-hereeven-if-fauci-doesnt-want-to-admit-it-n2587026
            Sorry, Fauci, Johns Hopkins Doctor Declares We’re Close to COVID Herd Immunity
            Matt Vespa | @mvespa1 | Posted: Mar 29, 2021 1:45 PM

            What Makary knows is that with the data we have now, “About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%.” By that count, he estimates that two-thirds of the country already had the virus; the survival rate is 90+ percent by the way. With natural immunity, plus vaccinations soaring past 100 million by now, his estimate of herd immunity isn’t nuts. He said his colleagues didn’t necessarily think his projection was off but didn’t want to say anything to avoid impacting the vaccination rate. That’s precisely wrong. Medical professionals should proclaim good medical progress, especially during a pandemic. This prediction was made in late February when COVID cases had dropped 77 percent. Texas nixed its mask mandate. Three weeks later, cases are still dropping.

          3. This pandemic is quickly coming to an end in this country. The CDC makes it impossible to examine the national data so just look at California:
            https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/
            Click on “State Data”. The number of deaths has plummeted to almost nothing and the number of hospitalized people is only about 2000 with only around 450 in the ICU. This is from a State with about 40 million people (CA would be 8th largest country in Europe). Of the Covid-19 tests performed only 1.2% are coming back positive.

            The curves of the epidemic show no correlation to any of the anti-Covid-19 measures taken (e.g., lockdowns, restrictions). The epidemic charted its own course and now it is ending.

            India is having a difficult time because it doesn’t HAVE a healthcare system by Western standards.

          4. Blue Skye, we decreased R down to ~1 only through masks and social distancing. So, if we continue to use masks indefinitely, then yes, 50% vaccination is enough for herd immunity. But take the masks off, and R is back up to 3-4. At R = 3-4, 50% is not enough. I don’t know about you, but I’m not wearing a mask indefinitely.

          5. Red Pill Eco, How can you say that there’s no overlap, and then cite an article from Texas which says “there will be some overlap.”

            Also, people who have recovered from the virus are still getting the vaccine, whether or not they think it’s necessary. So there is overlap by choice. The 1/3 that you quoted includes asymptomatic cases. So those people, thinking they are still vulnerable, will also get the vaccine, which means more overlap. That’s enough overlap that we’re not at herd immunity yet. That doesn’t count variants, which is still an unknown. I’m not sure it accounts for a 72% effective vaccine either, which is what J&J might be.

            I think herd immunity is closer to 65%. Israel is marching to herd immunity quickly, and 1/3 of their population — children under 16 — hasn’t been vaxxed. They are starting to take the masks off, so let’s see if there’s a spike there.

          6. OK sorry, RP, I didn’t realize Texas had dropped their masks. So yes, they probably ARE closer to done. The asymptomatic cases are pushing Texas over the herd immunity edge.

          7. I figured most folks here would understand how the lynchpin of the plandemic, the PCR test, worked.

            When you want to scare the sheep, you raise the PCR multiplier and when you want to claim victory, you drop the PCR multiplier.

            The reason why Florida has ‘kicked’ CV19s butt is because they require the multiplier to be listed on all on test results.

            Please folks. Wake up.

          8. why Florida has ‘kicked’

            Do elaborate. Does the state control the number of amplifications in the labs, or merely require it be reported? I never saw this information summarized on their public health dashboard.

    2. Herd immunity, masks, vaccines, vaccine passports, social distancing…it’s all irrelevant because it’s not going to end. How many times do they have to move the goal posts before everyone realizes we’re Charlie Brown getting Lucy”d trying to kick a football? 14 days to flatten the curve turned into 14 months of lockdowns and injecting the entire population with experimental vaccines that had only a few months of efficacy and safety data. You think they are going to stop now that they’ve gotten this much compliance and submission?

      1. “You think they are going to stop now”

        Nope. I just saw two people on the sidewalk wearing masks. They looked about millennial age, so it’s all about the public virtue signal, and nothing about health.

        1. “compliance and submission”

          AKA Pedo Joe voters who think they are *OWNING* Orange Man Bad by walking around looking like sheeple in their sheeple masks, and who derive their entire sense of self-worth from the accumulation of Reddit karma points and likes on Fakebook.

        1. So the Narrative is going to be that there is no inflation, hence Corporate America won’t give cost of living raises, and they can keep interest rates low.

          A win-win … for them.

    3. 1420 LUMBERRRR. Make a wish

      “The so-called stumpage fee, or what lumber companies pay to land owners for trees, for Louisiana pine sawtimber on March 31 was $22.75 per short ton, according to the latest data from price provider TimberMart-South. That’s the lowest since 2011.”

      1. You mean it’s not “the materials!”? 🤣

        Well… it’s not “but labor!” and it’s not “the land!”…

        Can you say appraisal fraaaaaaaaaaaud?

        1. It’s the same story all the way from northern CA all the way up to the Canadian border, “friendo.”

          3. Ignore won’t change your piss poor take on lumber. We own our mistakes. Or at least some do. Some run.

          4. Ignore won’t change your piss poor take on lumber. We own our mistakes. Or at least some do. Some run.

            Haha, wtf are you even talking about? You’re an idiot. I posted something showing that stumpage prices are at 10 years ago levels so this bubble is not supported by fundamentals, and you went full retard rather than even acknowledge that, waging personal attacks. What a bedwetter.

  10. ‘Right now, it’s such a volume out of California that these guys aren’t getting shipments back in,’ explained Jill Longo, owner of Andy’s Transfer & Storage in Glendale. ‘It’s an exodus.’

    Producers are leaving, dead beats and parasites are staying. Sounds like a formula for success in the Golden State.

    1. California is projected to lose a Congressional seat for the first time ever since it became a state.

        2. I can’t fathom being 81 years old and still “working”. I guess if you are a power hungry ticket taker that you will hang onto the bitter end.

          2. She needs to afford lux ice cream by having her husband insider trade on her info. How she’s not in jail with him is beyond me.

    2. Those truckers could always offer to fill their empty trucks with the homeless, and ferry them to the Land of Fruits and Nuts and Nice Weather and Endless Freebies.

  11. “It also turns out considerably more people are moving out of California than are moving in. That means interstate moving trucks are piling up in other states.”

    It seems like an inordinately large number of close connections to us fall in the Calexodous group. Every few days, my wife mentions another family we knew while our kids were growing up who are selling their home to cash in their sweet California equity and move away to another state.

    This morning she told me the best bubble top stories I’ve recently heard: A couple of different families just two degrees of separation from us are selling their homes with a plan to wait out the incipient crash as nomads (i.e. with relatives or just moving around), with the expectation to buy another California home later at a reduced price.

    1. It seems like an inordinately large number of close connections to us fall in the Calexodous group. Every few days, my wife mentions another family we knew while our kids were growing up who are selling their home to cash in their sweet California equity and move away to another state.

      I remember this happening in the mid 1990’s. Then it was our turn. And San Diego was a LOT nicer back then. That said, I have more than a few acquaintances who still live in Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Scripps Ranch, etc. The amount of equity most of them have is quite ample.

    2. The lie is that people are leaving CA because of the politics, homelessness, etc. The reality is it’s the equity locust thing just like last bubble peak, and they are bringing their disgusting politics with them. Ugh.

      1. I’m sure many are leaving to get away from the politics, and others are just cashing out and leaving.

        But hey! Disneyland is reopening! Surely that is an incentive to stay in SoCal!

        1. Not since they offer payment plans on season passes. It’s wall to wall broke-ass peasants and fat princesses buying $5 churros.

          1. I read that the annual pass program has been stopped, and that tickets prices will be going up.

    3. The stories circulating currently about people selling to capture a bubble premium in order to wait out a crash remind me of similar stories I heard cerca 2006 about Wall Street financiers selling their homes and renting while on crash watch.

      The difference is that the people whom we know who are doing it currently are not financially sophisticated or especially wealthy. It seems that word is out among ordinary Californians that housing prices are “high” and a crash is coming soon.

  13. I haven’t seen this since 2008: a listing for a “co-ownership home.” Looks like spec mcmodern developers are getting desperate out there…

    1/8th share – $470,000 Total price – $3.76mil.

    “New co-ownership opportunity: Own 1/8 of this professionally managed, turnkey home. A floating box façade is just the first striking feature of this 4-bedroom, 6-bath contemporary Los Angeles home… The home comes fully furnished and professionally decorated. Not a rental investment or income-producing property. Information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and must be independently verified.”

    https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/los-angeles/653-n-laurel-ave/pid_39873755/

    1. “…Not a rental investment or income-producing property….”

      So the only upside is [maybe] price appreciation?

      Ladies and Gentlemen: We have truly reached the abyss of insanity.

  15. Linked from Revolver (and thank you to them for aggregating links to paywall sites using Archive and Bitly).

    Financial Times — ‘We are drowning in insecurity’: young people and life after the pandemic (4/25/2021):

    “If I carry on the way I am, I’m not sure what I’ll be able to pass down,” he says. “It can’t be good for the country — the disparities are just going to grow, the wealthy are going to grow wealthier and those that aren’t will get more and more removed.”

    His sense that the social contract has broken for his generation is shared by many young people, and not just in London. When the FT ran a global survey for under 35s about their lives and expectations in the wake of the pandemic, 1,700 young people responded in the space of a week from countries as varied as South Africa, Cambodia, Norway, Australia, Denmark, the US, Portugal, Lebanon, Brazil, Malaysia, India and China.

    This sense of insecurity is changing the way younger generations see the world. The FT’s survey does not claim to be representative, but it hints at shifts in how young people perceive the role of luck versus merit, the way they traverse the world of work, and how they feel about the future.”

    https://archive.fo/iEIHN

    Welcome to the recoveryless recovery.

    1. says Hadrien, a recent UK graduate. “We are competing with machines and bots, and an ever increasing population of skilled humans,” says another.

      So, how are those open borders working for you, Hadrien? Nothing like some competition to push wages down.

      Here is my take. When I graduated decades ago no one was kicking down my door to hire me or pay me a big salary, I had to hit the pavement and sell myself, slowly working my way up.

      Even though I am on the trailing of the boomer generation I don’t have a fat pension waiting for me and I’ve been laid off 3 times in my career, and had to endure salary set backs each time. There were plenty of dead end jobs back then too.

      I have news for those profiled in the article: there have always been rich kids born on third base and you probably won’t catch up with them. As for the immigrants’ kids who can’t afford a million pound town house in central London, I’ll bet they’re still far better off than their cousins in the “old country”, though they won’t remember that the next time they’re “on holiday” in Ibiza or the Canary Islands.

      The one area where the young ones got the short end of the stick is housing. The last time I was in England I met people who rode the train every day for 90+ minutes each way to their office job in London, so that they could have a small house and a yard. These were folks with six figure salaries.

    2. Loved this:

      Mads Wold, in contrast, knows he lives a good life in Norway. He remembers watching The Wire, the gritty drama set in the US city of Baltimore, then going for a stroll down his pleasant street. “That’s when I was was like, oh shit, I live in a bubble.” But he worries about the global instability that climate change will cause. “One million refugees almost broke European unity; 225m climate refugees will surely annihilate it.”

      Climate refugees? He has already been conditioned to hand over his home and birthright to foreigners. Now I’m not saying to not help the less fortunate, but as any lifeguard will tell you, he can’t rescue you if you’re going to pull him under with you.

    3. Luckily the media has been so concentrating on Millenials and Baby boomers that nobody knows GenXers exist.

    1. Maybe we can give him the heave-ho before presidential aspirations gain traction.

      I truly hope you are successful. That said, I expect his replacement to be equally abysmal. And I don’t expect Bruce Jenner to be the next governor.

      1. That was an expensive birthday party in Napa.

        He still hasn’t been recalled. And if he isn’t, we might see him nominated for the presidency some day, unfortunately.

        And even if he is, his replacement will be just be another Democrat.

        1. his replacement will be just be another Democrat

          Who? Not one name comes to my mind. Democrat money bags may have gone all in on Newsom knowing voter fraud would make up the difference.

          1. Democrat money bags may have gone all in on Newsom knowing voter fraud would make up the difference.

            You are probably right.

    3. So Cravin Nuisance(Pelosi’s Nephew)is being recalled and Bruce (Caitlyn) Gender is running for Gov.

      ‘What’s the point? So we can replace him with the guy that used to be on a Wheaties box and now should be on a Froot Loops box?’

      Classic.

      Secretary of State’s office, which says 1,626,042 submitted signatures have been verified

      NOW they want to verify signatures?! I thought that was umpossible.

      The guy who chopped his own penis off is actually more sane and reasonable than the current governor. Let that sink in.

      1. The Financial Times
        California
        California governor to face recall election
        Democrat Gavin Newsom challenged by Republicans over handling of Covid-19 pandemic
        Opponents of Gavin Newsom have attacked the California governor’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic
        Dave Lee in San Francisco
        2 hours ago

        California governor Gavin Newsom will face a recall election this year after opponents gathered enough support to trigger the vote, as frustration mounts over the Democrat’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

        The California secretary of state’s office said on Monday that it had verified 1,626,042 signatures, comfortably above the 1,495,709 threshold required to force what will be only the second recall in the history of the most populous US state.

        The last recall vote, in 2003, resulted in the removal of Democratic governor Gray Davis and his replacement with the Republican bodybuilding movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger.

        “The people of California have done what the politicians thought would be impossible,” said Orrin Heatlie, the retired county sheriff’s sergeant who launched the recall effort, told the Associated Press.

        Randy Economy, a senior adviser to the recall campaign, added: “People are frustrated at the destructive policies, divisive politics and manipulative tactics conducted by Gavin Newsom since the day he became governor. We cannot continue to allow one elected official in California to control each aspect of our lives without checks and balances.”
        …

    1. The Financial Times
      Investment Banking
      Total bank losses from Archegos implosion exceed $10bn
      Nomura suspends head of prime brokerage after reporting biggest quarterly loss since 2008 due to debacle
      A Nomura sign outside its headquarters in Tokyo
      Nomura’s losses from the collapse of Archegos have revived questions over whether the Japanese bank’s efforts to pursue overseas growth prompted it to embrace more risk than it could handle
      Leo Lewis in Tokyo and Owen Walker in London 3 hours ago

      Bank losses from the implosion of Archegos Capital have surpassed $10bn, after Nomura said on Tuesday it had suffered a $2.9bn hit and suspended its global head of prime brokerage, and UBS revealed a $861m loss from the debacle.

      The collapse last month of the family office run by former hedge fund manager Bill Hwang is one of the most spectacular on Wall Street and has already resulted in losses of $5.4bn for Credit Suisse and $911m for Morgan Stanley.

      Japanese megabanks MUFG and Mizuho are expected to report up to $390m of losses, while Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo — two other banks that counted Archegos as a client of their prime brokerage divisions that service hedge funds — escaped from the fallout relatively unscathed.
      …

      1. “biggest quarterly loss since 2008”

        Wasn’t that the year Bear Stearns blew up in March, followed by the rest of Wall Street, beginning around September?

  20. And if they can rig the recall vote in California they will. After the rigged election of 2020, along with the rigged Pandemic, along with rigged news, how can anybody think that anything is legitimate.

    These Entities have been taking over for a long time, and they are just showing in a big way just how much they have taken over the function of Government.
    The people get nothing but insane narratives 24/7, yet people go along thinking if they are compliant they can get their lives back. No way. The more they get away with the more they will push.

    And mainstream news is so absurd and irrational that its become this non stop fraud of bizarre narratives not based on even being close to truth.

    But one thing is for sure, and that is whatever and whoever is responsible for this power grab, and invasion of the Government of the US, they are not good .

  21. And, I actually drive on the freeways with people that have about as much perception as a snail. Scary!

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