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What Makes It A Bubble Is These Crazy Outliers Are Becoming The Norm

A weekend topic starting with the Powell Tribune in Wyoming. “By the summer, the market was heating up — and it never slowed down. Today, the housing inventory in Powell is at lower levels than anyone can remember. John Parsons, co-owner of 307 Real Estate said the strain on housing inventory is across their northern Wyoming markets. While the dollar has lost some value, interest rates remain low and so buying power is high.”

From Alaska Public Media. “It’s a seller’s market: Homes are going fast and at high prices. Alaska’s housing market doesn’t have the makings of a bubble right now, says State Labor Department Economist Neal Fried, and he’s not expecting a crash. ‘That doesn’t mean the value of homes couldn’t go down,’ said Fried. ‘I’m not going to try to even guess that. And that sales might go down. But it’s not going to be — we just are not in the environment, sort of the bubbly environment, or sort of the potential boom/bust environment.'”

The Hays Free Press in Texas. “Yes, buying a new home in Central Texas feels like winning the lottery. In some ways it is likened to the 2007 pre-recession market, said Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, a real estate research economist at Texas A&M University. The only difference is that the bubble burst and tighter mortgage loan regulations took place; this time around, Ruiz does not foresee the bubble bursting.”

“In February and March, it was common for a home in Austin and Hays County to receive more than 20 offers, but things are slowing down a little, said Elle-Klein Garrison, a Realty Austin realtor. The pendulum is bound to swing in the other direction, but it could take some time, Garrison said. ‘It’s hard to say when the pendulum will swing, but it will happen,’ Garrison told the Hays Free Press/News-Dispatch.’ Prices will not come down, but the market will balance out… The main thing to remember in this market is it takes resilience, stamina and a creative and skilled agent.'”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “Truckee, a town on the lake’s north shore, was a perfect choice. Ben Jarso started making offers on properties. Again and again he lost out. Turns out too many other people had the same idea. He finally got a house, but it took quick action. He contacted the seller as soon as the four-bedroom home popped up on his real estate app, made the first offer and agreed to no inspection requirements. His new $900,000 home has a large pine deck and two fireplaces and boasts views of Donner Lake. ‘I think it was a steal,’ said Jarso.”

“In Truckee, the deluge of remote workers is hard to miss in the town of 16,000. Along the blocks of quaint art galleries and clothing boutiques in the center of town, a Realtor’s storefront window advertisement highlights the real estate boom: Homes in some neighborhoods have spiked 146% and are selling 63% faster than last year.”

From Palm Springs Life in California. “For this year, Mike McDonald of the real estate research firm Market Watch LLC expects home prices to hold steady. ‘Even with the eventual surge in new listings,’ he says, ‘there are no signs yet of a housing bubble.'”

“Walter Neil of Franklin Loan Center emphasized that now is a good time to buy, despite the rising prices. ‘Interest rates will remain very favorable,’ he says, explaining buyers can still get a cheap mortgage, ‘and so is affordability when you think of [the purchase] as an investment. The high demand and tight supply point to 6 percent appreciation in 2021. So, yeah, you might pay over the list price, but based on the appreciation forecast, look at your value four or five years from now.'”

From Palo Alto Online in California. “Michael Repka is CEO of DeLeon Realty. Q: Have you seen a turning point where you feel like the industry is either heading back to normal or moving farther away from the old normal? A: The overall market has definitely improved this Spring, however, there are an inordinate number of homes that will be coming on the market over the next few months. This may create a situation of over supply.”

From Business in Vancouver in Canada. “Local buyers, including a hefty portion of investors, have sparked a presale condominium sales boom in the Metro Vancouver suburbs, with a string of new projects still under construction selling out hundreds of units within hours. ‘A light switch came on’ in the past few weeks, said Jeremy Towning, vice-president of SwissReal Group. ‘Someone would buy and then the whole family would buy.'”

“Developers make no bones about targeting local investors. Many condo developers allow rental units in their projects and nearly all will allow investors to sell assignments – where the condo is flipped to another buyer before it completes – for a modest percentage on the ‘lift’ in value, sometimes, as with SwissReal, as low as 1%, or a flat fee that can be as low as $500.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Economists usually define a market bubble as a sudden rise in price based on obviously implausible or contradictory beliefs. A bubble, in other words, is doomed to collapse under the weight of its own irrationality. By that standard, Canada’s real estate market looks less bubble-like than exuberant. One good reason to bet against any housing collapse is the attitude of key decision makers. Political leaders and central bankers have been cheering on the recent gains. It seems unlikely the powers-that-be would deliberately inflate home prices only to stand back and watch them topple.”

“This is true not just in Canada but in advanced economies around the world. From Australia to Britain, governments and central banks are attempting to stimulate their plague-stricken economies by doing everything they can to encourage home buying. Rather than taking away the punch bowl just as the party gets going, decision makers in many countries have been spiking the policy brew with as much happy juice as possible. Thanks to low interest rates and other stimulus measures, home prices are soaring at double-digit paces in the U.S., New Zealand and Australia.”

“‘When you hear the Bank of Canada promising rates will stay low for a very long time and politicians like Adam Vaughan promising to do everything possible to prevent a price decline, you can see why some people decide it really doesn’t matter what they pay for a home because it will just keep going up,’ says John Pasalis, an economics researcher and president of Realosophy Realty, a Toronto real estate broker.”

“He argues the past few months have seen the market lurch into a new and disturbing phase, in which desperate buyers are paying far more than asking prices. ‘It’s not all irrational what is happening,’ he says. ‘But the irrational component, what makes it a bubble … is that these crazy outliers are becoming the norm. Everyone is feeling they need to spend $30,000, $40,000 or $50,000 more than what comparable homes sold for three or four weeks ago just to get into the market.'”

From Stuff New Zealand. “If you want to get on the property ladder, have you missed the boat? We’ve seen extraordinary home sales in real estate markets around the country in recent months. March sales were at a 14-year high, according to REINZ (Real Estate Institute of New Zealand). The country saw median prices of residential property increase by 24.3 per cent across the country to $826,300 in the month too.”

“Independent economist Tony Alexander said that the sense of ‘FOMO’ (fear of missing out) recently seen among buyers is starting to fade. In his most recent survey of real estate agents, 66 per cent said there was still a sense of FOMO, compared with 88 per cent in March. He thinks this will reduce even further. A net 23 per cent of agents were seeing fewer people at open homes and a net 41 per cent of agents were seeing fewer investors.”

“‘I don’t think people need to rush,’ Alexander said. ‘If you’re looking to buy, see how many [investors] do pull out of the market and how many vendors come forward because they don’t want to wait any longer. An environment where time is on the side of the buyers is not there yet, but it is coming.'”

“Vendors who have been holding off and waiting for the best price may start to put their properties up for sale while the market is on a high. Already, there are more properties on the market than is normal for this time of year. Tommy’s Real Estate’s Nicki Cruickshank said the number of homes the agent has on the market is more reflective of a usual January or February, rather than an autumn April.”

“Sellers are now experiencing their own version of FOMO, said Cruickshank. ‘What we’ve noticed in the last two or three weeks is people starting to make predictions… So people are putting their house on the market now, and stock levels are higher than normal. I do think there are a few people thinking it’s time to sell, in case they miss out on the great prices. But there’s still strong demand, I would say that,’ she said.”

“You can talk about prices and trends until you’re blue in the face, but if you are buying your own home, rather than an investment, it might not really matter all that much. ‘The best time to buy is when you’re ready,” said Cruickshank. ‘Everyone thinks they’ve paid too much when they buy and then a couple of years later [when prices rise] thinks, thank goodness….'”

This Post Has 88 Comments
  1. ‘His new $900,000 home has a large pine deck and two fireplaces and boasts views of Donner Lake. ‘I think it was a steal’

    Click!

  2. ‘Interest rates will remain very favorable,’ he says, explaining buyers can still get a cheap mortgage, ‘and so is affordability when you think of [the purchase] as an investment. The high demand and tight supply point to 6 percent appreciation in 2021. So, yeah, you might pay over the list price, but based on the appreciation forecast, look at your value four or five years from now’

    Check out the graphic with the women holding a suitcase full of money to a seating man.

    ‘Interest rates will remain very favorable,’ he says, explaining buyers can still get a cheap mortgage, ‘and so is affordability when you think of [the purchase] as an investment’

    And you can borrow the money! And if you can’t pay it back, who cares!

    There’s lots of ways to spot a mania. It’s inexact because it’s a psychological thing. I was once discussing a persons behavior with another. I mentioned one action, and the reply was “that’s crazy.” So where do we leave “that doesn’t make sense” to “insane” at least from a financial viewpoint? One that stands out to me is renting at a loss. That’s been the case for many years in many markets.

    Greater fool is a bubble. And if you dig down into the motivations all around us, that’s what you’ll find.

    1. “Greater fool is a bubble.”

      Close. Here, try this:

      A greater fool who has been allowed access to money makes for a bubble.

      There is never any shortage of fools but sometimes there is a shortage of accessible money and prices tend to reflect this.

      Make huge gobs of money accessible to all fools and the greatest of all these fools will submit the highest bid, will pay the highest price, will thus reset the values of the comps, will thus be the one who magically creates huge amounts of equity wealth for strangers who happen to live nearby.

      The greatest fool is the unsung hero in all this nonsense. I am deeply grateful that our educational system pumps out so many copies of them because their existence in such huge numbers allows me to enjoy a work-free life of leisure.

  3. ‘It’s hard to say when the pendulum will swing, but it will happen’

    Pendulum has a benign sound to it. Guillotine not so much.

    BTW this article talks about an over 600k shack in Dripping Springs.

  4. ‘Someone would buy and then the whole family would buy’

    OK, that’s not nuts? Like the “I went to vacation in Orlando and ended up buying a condo” or “I went to Las Vegas to buy a new house and ended up buying 6”. And of course the Vancouver REIC is stuffing money in their pockets cuz when it blows up, it won’t hurt them. It’s a slimy bunch up there.

    1. what a great analogy – condos are like the timeshares from the ’90s. Only – you could walk away from those.

    2. The world has gone insane. It’s a massive credit/debt bubble. And it’s all due to forbearances and free money from .gov along with zero lending standards. Anybody qualifies for anything. Sure, the rate might not be the best, but all the better – for the lender.

      1. They’re strip-mining the country. Our forefathers would have these swindlers drawn and quartered after they’ve spent a few days in tall pillory stocks.

  5. ‘One good reason to bet against any housing collapse is the attitude of key decision makers. Political leaders and central bankers have been cheering on the recent gains. It seems unlikely the powers-that-be would deliberately inflate home prices only to stand back and watch them topple’

    ‘This is true not just in Canada but in advanced economies around the world. From Australia to Britain, governments and central banks are attempting to stimulate their plague-stricken economies by doing everything they can to encourage home buying. Rather than taking away the punch bowl just as the party gets going, decision makers in many countries have been spiking the policy brew with as much happy juice as possible’

    So they are openly discussing what’s been mentioned on this blog for a long time: this is policy. I go further and say they also know it will collapse. Of course, there’s always the “soft landing” type. Or guberment worshipers who think they walk on water. Fact is, there is no prosperity in selling each other shacks. To the contrary, it’s a huge economic negative for many reasons I’ve mentioned before. In short, these central banks and guberments are stocked with dangerous idiots.

    1. “They knew” – The TBTF banks could be as reckless as they wanted to be with their mortgage underwriting, knowing the Fed and middle class taxpayers would cover any and all losses.

      The Big Short (2015) – Mark Baum”s Final Decision & The Aftermaths

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bu2wNKlVRzE

      1. its different this time. Here the central banks and policy makers knew what would happen — and they instigated it with ultra low rates and other housing policy.

    2. “…this is policy. I go further and say they also know it will collapse.”

      I’m not sure about this. My impression of the 2007-2009 housing collapse was that top U.S. financial officials were shocked by the breadth, depth and duration of the collapse that occurred. But in the aftermath, they went all out to update their intervention tools to ensure that it “will never happen again.” It’s this hubristic belief in the government’s role to provide “free” societal insurance against real estate investing loss, which seems dangerous and too big to succeed.

      So here we are again, back to similar conditions as in 2006, with U.S. housing prices increasing at double digit rates, driven by artificially suppressed interest rates and massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus fueling an influx of government-guaranteed subprime mortgages, handed out preferentially to people whose lives matter, plus an herd of bullish individual and institutional investors snapping up residential housing to capture the high rate of appreciation while it lasts. FOMO has led to desperate buyer behaviors, such as waived inspections, bidding wars, and lending fraud to increase the loan amounts for which borrowers can qualify.

      Coupled with the demand side factors mentioned above are the effects of government interventions to limit supply, such as foreclosure and eviction moratoriums. The combination of restricted supply and turbocharged demand have helped reduce the inventory of U.S. housing units on the market from around 4 million circa 2007 to 1 million currently. The supply and demand side have both worked the same direction to drive a counterintuitive price spike against the backdrop of a severe labor market recession.

      Between artificially suppressed interest rates, pervasive federally guaranteed subprime lending, and pandemic-related foreclosure and eviction moratoriums, the government footprint in housing has never been larger. The government owns this bubble, will do everything in its power to sustain it while denying its existence, and will reject its culpability once Housing Bubble 2.0 eventually collapses.

      1. influx of government-guaranteed subprime mortgages

        I can’t seem to find the part about the I/O and neg-am.

        1. Those aren’t necessary for lending to go down the subprime tube. All you really need is a way to get loans at a very high multiple of income to weak hands who are a bad credit risk with a high probability of loab default. Federal guarantees, low downpayment requirements, and fraudulent underwriting to enable lending at imprudently high multiples of income all serve the same purpose as I/O and neg-am.

          1. “And you can borrow the money! And if you can’t pay it back, who cares!”

            Exactly. Housing bubbles can’t happen without a drastic loosening of lending standards which bakes in a future crash and bailouts with a big payday for Wall Street.

        2. ‘…some groups believe the Trump-era rules should remain in place.

          They will help banks and other lenders innovate and extend more mortgages to underserved groups, like Black and Hispanic homebuyers, according to Robert Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

          “We encourage the bureau to permit them to take effect as scheduled,” Broeksmit said.’

          Well by all means. Because race-based lending is officially a part of U.S. housing policy, including to shift the blame onto private lenders who comply with the policy when the racially preferred groups earmarked for special access to subprime loans eventually default in droves.

      2. No, Feds knew it all along. We had bailouts galore immediately prior and after. There were no surprises and there are nine this time. This IS an intentional spike of the economy versus Gubt. malpractice in 07-09.

      3. I’m not sure about this.

        Who has benefited. Set aside logic and public statements and look at who has benefited.

    3. It seems unlikely the powers-that-be would deliberately inflate home prices only to stand back and watch them topple’

      True price discovery gets a vote.

    4. So Canada considers itself an “advanced” economy now? That’s very funny, Canada.

    5. I don’t think they’re idiots, I think it’s all by design. There’s a reason the FED is buying all the paper now. They will end up with all the foreclosures, then they can just control inventory as well. They have no intention of letting prices fall if they can somehow avoid it. Whether they can do that or not is up for debate, but these SOBs are doing their darnedest.

      1. “They will end up with all the foreclosures, then they can just control inventory as well.”

        1. The fed’s inventory will be sold to our pious friends who are busy trampling each other’s women and children to death.

    6. It’s too bad an ex military sharpshooter with a hatred of the FED isn’t operating covertly at this point. Pick off a few dozen of these financial terrorists and I think they’d start to straighten up and fly right. They know what they’re doing to society, they just don’t care.

      1. As soon as the first Fed Res bigwig is taken down martial law would be declared

  6. From the Wyoming piece: “Now, any house in the $350,000 to $400,000 range is going to get a lot of offers from all those well financed people coming from out of state.”

    First, $350k to $400k for a house in wind swept Wyoming?

    Second, aren’t they talking about out of state “equity locusts?” Isn’t financing much more difficult out in the boondocks?

    Lastly, why would retired people who will be needing health care services move to a place where an expensive helicopter ride to a real medical facility is typical?

    1. I’ll bet there are virtually no BLM types in places like Powell, WY. That said, there are bigger towns with better infrastructure in Wyoming, like Cheyenne or Casper. If you need a medical specialist not found in Cheyenne, Fort Collins isn’t that far away, and Dumver is about a 90 minute drive if you need to catch a flight somewhere.

      1. “I’ll bet there are virtually no BLM types in places like Powell, WY.”

        I could believe that especially after looking on the map.

        How many people up there in single-wide country can afford a $350k shack when you decide to move?

    2. If they’re equity locusts, then they could easily be putting $100K down on that $300K house It’s not hard for a couple to find financing for $200K, especially if they can claim w@h (at least for now). It also explains why they can bid to over asking. They can bid $50K over asking and just put $50K down instead of $100K.

      1. I don’t think it’s hard for anybody to find financing on anything these days. There are no more standards. Fog a mirror, get a loan is back.

        1. All you need is to decouple loan size from income. Zero-downpayment and frudulent underwriting are two ways…

    3. Next thing you know, some tool that owns a couple rental properties in Wyoming will be on here touting “Silicon Prairies” or whatever that are supposedly bringing highly paid tech jobs to the Wyoming backwaters.

      1. Laramie is the college town, and as far as I know it doesn’t have any “tech firms”. There was once a small firm called In-Situ, but it moved to Fort Collins a long time ago.

        Given the current regime’s hostility to fossil fuels, Wyoming might not be doing all that well these next few years. Even given the prior circumstances, I found real estate prices in Cheyenne to be perplexing.

        1. Wyoming’s coal, oil and natural gas will be sold to China, with 10% for the big guy.

        1. I’m sure the H1-Bs will be grateful to live in whatever part of the US they are allowed. Their kids, on the other hand, will not.

  7. Alaska’s housing market doesn’t have the makings of a bubble right now, says State Labor Department Economist Neal Fried, and he’s not expecting a crash.

    Another willfully clueless economist whose paycheck depends on his willingness to shill for the REIC.

    1. Nowadays an igloo in Nome will set you back 13 seal pelts and 5 walrus tusks. Things are nuts up there.

  8. The only difference is that the bubble burst and tighter mortgage loan regulations took place; this time around, Ruiz does not foresee the bubble bursting.”

    None of you REIC asshats foresaw the last housing bubble bust, either.

  9. ‘It’s hard to say when the pendulum will swing, but it will happen,’ Garrison told the Hays Free Press/News-Dispatch.’ Prices will not come down, but the market will balance out…

    Realtors are liars.

  10. His new $900,000 home has a large pine deck and two fireplaces and boasts views of Donner Lake. ‘I think it was a steal,’ said Jarso.”

    No, Jarso. It’ll be a steal once it goes under the foreclosure auctioneer’s hammer.

    1. It was certainly a steal, Jarso. As soon as the seller and realtor saw you, they knew you were going to swallow the bait hook, line and sinker.

  11. Bubble typing:

    “If it inflates like a bubble and it collapses like a bubble, then it must be a bubble.”

    Housing Bubble 2.0, which is really just the very long lasting second financial tsunami wave of the bubble that began expanding about 1996 or so, has yet to reach the point of collapse. You’ll know we’re there by the chorus of high muckamucks in financial circles chanting in unison, “Nobody could have seen it coming.”

      1. Muckamuck, mucky-muck and muckety-muck

        The terms muckamuck, mucky-muck and muckety-muck are different variations of the same term. We will look at the words muckamuck, mucky-muck and muckety-muck, their definition and where they come from. We will also look at a few examples of their use in sentences.

  12. So, yeah, you might pay over the list price, but based on the appreciation forecast, look at your value four or five years from now.’”

    The dupes who overextend to get into a shack they manifestly can’t afford, then face financial ruin when Housing Bubble 2.0 bursts, will blame everybody but themselves for following such “advice.”

    1. We just got together with old friends who, along with a very large group of like-minded Californians, are relocating to Texas. They felt the need to buy, on the rationale that prices can only go up from here, despite facing difficulties such as offers that fell through due to lost bidding wars and having the seller force them to waive the inspection. At one point the wife let slip that they last bought back in 2006, only to lose $100K during the subsequent rash, but I couldn’t bring myself to press for details…

      The whole conversation reminded me of stories back in 2005 about Florida real estate speculators heading out in the tailwinds of hurricanes to scour the market for more properties to buy. The extreme degree of mania thinking today is quite similar.

      1. “…they last bought back in 2006…”

        Between then and now they do a great job of hitting the peaks!

        1. Some people like to buy at the peaks, in order to quell their FOMO. Others, experiencing a perfectly healthy FOBATT, prefer to wait until everyone else agrees that real estate is a terrible investment and a terrific way to lose boatloads of money.

          It’s really a matter of individual choice which approach to take.

      2. Urban Edge
        It seems like all of California is moving to Texas. Is that true?
        Feature Story:
        Mar 3, 2021
        William Fulton

        In the past, the influx of Californians to Texas has fluctuated from year to year. However, since 2018, the West Coast migration has remained high. Why is that? (Hint: It’s not oil prices.)

        The movement in the other direction — California to Texas — looks pretty different. It ebbs and flows. Even during the last recession, it wasn’t consistent, fluctuating up and down pretty considerably. And in the past two years, it has shot up to a level not seen since 2006. In 2018 and 2019, a little over 80,000 Californians moved to Texas. (Again, for perspective, that’s about two-tenths of 1% of California’s population.)

        But why is this really happening? Admittedly, California has had a rough couple of years, but the fluctuation is considerable, and it doesn’t seem to be related to the price of oil (i.e., economic opportunity in Texas). If oil prices were a factor, we would have seen a big dip in 2014-2016. (Instead, during that time, California migration to Texas went up.)

        As it turns out, the answer is simple. The driving force is not a pull into Texas but a push out of California: home prices.

        Take a look at Figure 3, which compares the California migration flow to Texas (the blue bars) with the median single-family home price in California (the orange line). Correlation isn’t causation, as the statisticians like to warn us, but the trend is pretty clear. Migration from California to Texas lags behind the trend in home prices in California by a year or two.

        California home prices peaked in 2006, at about $570,000. Heavy migration from California to Texas continued until 2008. But by that time — when California was heavily hit by the subprime mortgage crisis — the median California home price had dropped in half, to about $280,000. Migration to Texas started dropping the following year. Californians stayed home when they could afford to buy a house.

        Prices began to rise in 2012 and migration to Texas duly followed a couple of years later. And by 2017, California home prices had shot up above $500,000, again. Not surprisingly, migration to Texas shot up again starting the following year.

        1. Subprime lending makes it all happen.

          A little appraisal fraud here, some mortgage fraud over there and voila… Resale prices triple and quadruple construction cost(lot, labor, materials and profit).

  13. A bubble, in other words, is doomed to collapse under the weight of its own irrationality. By that standard, Canada’s real estate market looks less bubble-like than exuberant.

    The REIC shills who write such dreck should be kicked in the jimmies.

  14. Posting from elevation 11,000 feet in the Pike National Forest, there are no loanowners out here on the trail, because after “winning” a bidding war to buy a used house in Denver, they can’t even afford the gas to drive to the trailhead.

    Realtors are liars.

    1. “loanowners”

      That would be me. The pukes you are referring to are “loanOWERS”. They owe, I own.

      These pukes work hard for money and then send huge chunks of this hard-earned money to me. Each and every month. For decades.

      Life is good if you are a loanowner, not so much if you are a loanower.

    2. “there are no loanowners out here on the trail,”

      “Aborigines don’t own the land. They belong to it. It’s like their mother. See those rocks? Been standing there for 600 million years. Still be there when you and I are gone. So arguing over who owns them is like two fleas arguing over who owns the dog they live on.”

      PAUL HOGAN – Michael J. “Crocodile” Dundee

  15. Lending money is a weapon of mass destruction. The Rothschild Family made their fortune by making loans and than making hay on the default on the loans. Its all about putting the loan recipients into a trap and than somehow gouging when they default. Some kind of looting scheme by deliberately putting the loan recipient into a compromised position.
    John D. Rockefeller being a master at elimination of competition and than Monopolizing the industry to price gouge.

    As far as I’m concerned these are all schemes to loot the Societies . And now you have Monopolies that basically want to dominate the world and Governments they corrupt. This monopoly on fake news with all the fake news narratives with censorship that is designed to advance these Entities destructive agendas , that’s basically fraud , is the worse development I have ever seen.

    The Medical Tyranny by the Big Pharmacy Monopoly has got to be the worst sort of corruption of Government agencies to pimp for a Industry by forcing vaccines, lock downs, masks under this false Pandemic under the illusion of Public Health and saving lives. And the fraud of getting untested vaccines approved under emergency declaration is outrageous. Fake tests, fake Covid deaths, fake fear mongering, and fake Science.

    Come on, the whole globe doesn’t need to be vaccinated with untested vaccines on a new technology that they don’t know the short or long term results.
    Look at all the drugs that were approved by the FDA in the last 40 years that ended up being taken off the market, because they never should of been approved to begin with. I lost my faith in the FDA a long time ago as being a protection agency for the people.
    So, doesn’t matter what industry your talking about, real estate, medical, its buyer beware.

    Buyer beware because we are in a Oligarchy of everything fake.
    We got a fake President put in by a fake election for God sakes , who is told what to say because he can’t think. This Biden got the most votes a President ever got, around 80 million , but only around 10 million could stomach his address to Congress. But that Joe Biden is talking about the Sole of America. Such nonsense.

    1. Fed to the People of the United States of America: “All your real estates are belongs to us.”

      1. “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” — Thomas Jefferson

  16. Anecdote from a fellow that I play sports with: He is a realtor, but I try not to hold that against him.

    Last weekend, he confided that he worries about the first time home buyers he is working with who are buying in this market. He is seeing insane bidding wars–one property locally had 46 offers–with totals running in the six figuresn over asking. He mentioned one 20-something couples, both in tech, who bid $130k over ask, upper twenty percents iirc. He wasn’t too worries about them, since they have a deep net in the “bank of mom and dad” sense. He has seen some go even higher, thirty-ish percent over ask.

    It sounds like he tries to make sure they understand the risks, as he fully expects that above-ask pricing to end at some point, and recent buyers to be left underwater. But it doesn’t sound like that really affects anyone’s plans.

    Strange world, when even the realtors are starting to get it.

    1. “He is seeing insane bidding wars–one property locally had 46 offers–with totals running in the six figures over asking.”

      This means one bidder landed the house and forty-five bidders did not. Of these forty-five bidders many will succumb the the FOMO emotion and will “do whatever it takes” the next time in order to become the highest bidder.

      Think of this: A room filled with FOMO crazed bidders. Think of what this does to prices. Think of how this strengthens the FOMO emotion
      deep in the psyche of the losing bidders. Think how wonderful this is to everyone involved.

      A truly modern financial miracle.

      1. Think how much the loan size budget constraint had to be relaxed through government guarantees, low downpayments, interest rate suppression and weakening of lending standards to subprime risk levels in order to support bids more than $100,000 over asking.

    2. That’s a great story…especially the part about how the used home seller’s guilt is assuaged by his knowledge of the Bank of Mom and Dad backstopping the young green marks who comprise his customer base.

      The flip side of the situation is seen among some households in our circle who are selling now to capture what they perceive to be a temporary bubble premium. The last time I recall hearing about people engaging in home sales to wait out an anticipated crash was back in 2006.

      1. Yep, totally agree, PB. It was clear that he felt some guilt from enabling young’uns to take part in the insanity. And the “Bank of Mom and Dad” comment definitely came across to be as a healthy rationalization.

      2. “some households in our circle who are selling now to capture what they perceive to be a temporary bubble premium.”

        I’ve noticed this too, along with a small but sudden spike in inventory. Sellers are also reading all the FOMO propaganda going around. I think many are already rushing to list.

    3. The more suckers get snookered into bidding wars and overpay for houses, the more defaults and bankruptcies there will be. Those folks will be ineligible to borrow money (at low interest) for any reason, for years. If more of the population is participating in the mania this time around, the downturn will be that much lower and long lasting. They will have to get used to a (in their view) a sharp drop in their standard of living by living within their means. Renting or paying cash will be their only options for housing.

  17. “Everyone thinks they’ve paid too much when they buy and then a couple of years later [when prices rise] thinks, thank goodness…”

    How did that work out for the greater fools who bought in 2006?

    1. I know there will be a crash, but when? I figured that the pandemic would do the trick. It did knock the stonk market on its back, though it came back quickly.

      First time buyers finally crying uncle might be what finally ends this bubble.

      1. First time buyers (new suckers) are the necessary feed stock for housing bubbles, or any Ponzi scheme for that matter. They are the marks who feed new (borrowed) money into the bottom rung of the “property ladder.” When they retreat, it’s game over.

      1. 15-Year-Old Boy Dies Of Heart Attack Two Days After Taking Pfizer Vaccine, Had No History Of Allergic Reactions

        by Tom Pappert | National File
        May 1st 2021, 12:30 pm

        According to data in the national Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, a 15-year-old boy in Colorado died of a heart attack only two days after being injected with the controversial Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine despite having no previous history of allergic reactions.

        The case, listed in the database as VAERS ID 1242573, reveals that the 15-year-old boy was “vaccinated with Pfizer/Biontech” on April 18, 2021. He began to experience adverse reactions to the vaccine on April 19, 2021, and “died 04/20/2021, 2 days after vaccination.” The VAERS database also reveals that he had no other illnesses, no preexisting conditions, no known allergies, no birth defects, and no permanent disabilities. He merely died of “cardiac failure” exactly two days after receiving the controversial vaccine.

        The revelation comes as the mainstream media and Biden regime have repeatedly criticized those suggesting healthy, young people should consider skipping the COVID-19 vaccine. Joe Rogan famously made this suggestion on the April 23 episode of his Joe Rogan Experience podcast, provoking a litany of leftist responses and criticism.

        However, the science appears to agree with Rogan: Healthy young people have virtually no chance of dying from COVID-19, but are more likely than older demographics to suffer severe adverse reactions to the vaccine, as National File reported extensively.

        The report also comes as a woman experienced near total body paralysis and intense pain after taking the same Pfizer vaccine that taken before the 15-year-old’s death. Tennessee woman Brandy Parker McFadden was shaken awake by searing pain after taking the vaccine, and soon realized she could not move her arms or legs. taken to the hospital, where doctors began panicking. “I woke up. I can’t move my arms. I can’t move my legs. So, he’s freaking out. The doctors are panicking,” said McFadden.

        1. The Pfizer vaccine is causing issues in young men in Israel too. The rate seems to be around 1 out of ~200,000.

    1. A post-mortem report found he had a thickening of the heart while a toxicology report found “therapeutic levels” of prescribed medication as well as levels of methadone, cocaine, and morphine.

      Recording a drug-related death conclusion, acting senior coroner Colin Phillips said he died on October 19, 2020 as a consequence of an “unintentional overdose.”

      Darwin wins again.

  18. We went to a Carmel Valley park today and saw two kids double-masked riding bikes. Other kids were masked and playing in the sand. How healthy.

  19. You really have to go to alternative news to get all the deaths and adverse reactions that are occurring from the vaccines. Main stream news is downplaying it.
    For instance the niece of the remaining Bee Gee , who was healthy around 50 died directly after taking the jab. That death didn’t reach the main stream news.
    And , how doctors are reporting a adverse reactions has to be suspect at this time because we all know this was a industry that had fake PCR tests and they declared any death Covid.
    How anyone can think because of the censorship and fake news going on that your getting the truth ,it’s not possible. Its all about pushing the goal of vaccination for at least 70 % of the Globe.

    The absolute insanity of people being damaged by wearing masks, that has no bearing on stopping transmission, or lock downs is evident, yet they carry on with this fear mongering medical fraud.

    Get serious here, look at the exact timing of this so called Pandemic. If your comfortable with fake PCR tests and generous incentives given to hospitals to report almost any death as Covid, while the regular flu and pneumonia deaths vanished, than you have suspended your thinking and just can’t believe something so vile and destructive could be attempted with Government being in on it.

    And, your suppose to believe that the fraudulent election was on the up and up and over 80 million people voted for Biden , who doesn’t even know what day it is.

    Billions of people being affected by a small percentage of people who want to change the World to some kind of top down control . Goodbye to freedoms if these Monsters get their way. The people outnumber them so just don’t comply with this bizarre World they want to force on humanity.

    They have brainwashed a certain percentage to be their useful nitwits , and now they are trying to demonized and oppress the percentage of the population that would push back against this outrageous power grab that is trying to bring on adnormal based on fraud.

    One of the biggest things they have going in their favor is its hard for people to believe that something this evil and fraudulent could be taking place. There is nothing rational or justified that is going on . Don’t allow them to divide you against you fellow man/women or pressure you into something that might be against your self interest or rights. Don’t accept crazy or the irrational because that’s what they want you to do.Resist and reject their agendas.

  20. I think this insurrection is a little premature, but they had to do it now because of the pushback from popular movements forming against their agendas.

    So, a major speed up to the long term agendas , but at the same time being a more dramatic change with not enough people being brainwashed into submission. So , a need to demonize over half the population that isn’t on board with their takeover agendas.
    They have already shown their true colors, so it isn’t even a question on what their intentions are.

    This is one of the reasons I think they will fail in the final analysis. I don’t think they will be able to pull off more lock downs based on the mutant variant strain fraud. And people are really getting tired of not being able to have normal breathing under the masks, while subjecting their children to such nonsense.You can fool the people some of the time, but it gets to the point they overcome their fear.(hopefully).
    So, expect new levels of fear being introduced , as well as fraudent narratives, false flags and you name it. Expect the Climate Change false narrative to come in here soon, another area Bill Gates is involved in.

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