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Is This The Last Hurrah For A Market That Has Been Having A Spectacular Run?

A report from Arlington Now in Virginia. “As we’re sure you’ve picked up on in recent times, inventory has been tight and houses are not lasting long out there. However, looking at this week’s Just Reduced figures, we’ve eclipsed the ’50 price reductions in the past week’ mark for the first time in a year-plus. So, while some properties are flying off the shelf at or above listing price, there are a decent amount offerings out there with pricing wiggle room. And, just remember, these Just Reduced prices should only be the beginning of your negotiations.”

From WNYT in New York. “Deana Mancini says one of her rental apartments was damaged by its last tenant, who she says refused to pay rent, knowing she’d be protected under New York’s eviction moratorium. ‘We have mortgages to pay, we have taxes to pay, we have upkeep,’ said Mancini. ‘For the people that need it, we’re there for them, and they have been very communicative and discussed all of their obstacles, and we understand. But it’s the blatant abuse that’s really kind of tearing us down, and it’s leaving us frustrated, in debt, with a pit in our stomach. I mean, we’re not sleeping at night because we’re just feeling helpless as property owners.'”

The Union Tribune in California. “San Diego leaders adopted a countywide temporary rent cap Tuesday, May 4, and new rules to make evictions more difficult for landlords during the pandemic. Small landlord Sandra Labelle said many people renting properties would need to take rental housing off the market if eviction bans and rent caps continue. ‘Small landlords like me will have to somehow figure out how to sell our rentals to pay our mortgages,’ she said.”

The Real Deal. “Romeo Budhoo, a Schenectady landlord just featured in a stunning Washington Post story on the acrimony resulting from a year of unpaid rent, doubts his tenants, protected by an eviction moratorium at least through August, will bother to apply. ‘They’re telling themselves, ‘Why should we go and do all these things and hustle to apply when nobody can put us out of our apartment?’ Budhoo said. ‘Our guys are small property owners who haven’t been paid rent since March,’ said landlord lobbyist Joe Strasburg. ‘They’ll take the money knowing full well that if the tenant decides to game the system for the next year, they’re stuck.'”

The Greater Baton Rouge Business Report on Louisiana. “The yearlong pandemic has created uncertainty in the market that makes it difficult to predict the future of the multifamily and commercial real estate sectors in Baton Rouge, according to expert. ‘We used to factor in hurricanes and floods,’ says Craig Davenport of Cook, Moore, Davenport and Associates. ‘With COVID, we’ve got to worry about people working from home, schooling from home and what’s the new normal? It’s difficult to say.'”

“Class A complexes near LSU, which were overbuilt before the pandemic, had an average vacancy rate last year of 17%, while older student housing complexes near LSU saw vacancy rates of nearly 14%. ‘We have 3,352 vacant units,’ he says. ‘That doesn’t sound like a lot but it’s still a lot of vacant units and we still have a lot of complexes under renovation.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Toronto’s housing market started to slow in April after months of frenetic activity, with sales and the average price falling from March. Instead of seeing more than a dozen bids on a house, some are receiving fewer than 10 offers. In some cases, realtors reported no offers for certain suburban properties. ‘This was unheard of one month ago,’ said Anthony Anichini, a sales representative with Royal LePage Premium One Realty.”

The Georgian Straight in Canada. “Agents with the Fraser Valley Real Estate sold 3,016 homes in April 2021, setting a new record for the month. Last month’s sales beat the previous record high for April, which totalled 2,969 in 2016. But is this the last hurrah for a market that has been having a spectacular run for months? FVREB president Larry Anderson said that while the region’s market ‘remains very competitive and challenging for buyers, April could be the turning point in this historic market.'”

“‘In the last couple of weeks, we have seen evidence of a change in pace,’ Anderson said. ‘In general, we’re seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer subject-free offers, and homes over-priced are starting to sit longer. These are positive signs that the market is responding to near-record levels of new inventory.'”

“The FVREB stated that the total active inventory of homes for sale reached 6,030 in April 2021. The board noted that the April inventory was 20 percent higher than in March 2021, and it’s the ‘highest it’s been in six months.'”

From Bloomberg on Hong Kong. “There’s rarely been a better time to be apartment hunting in Hong Kong than right now. Rents in one of the world’s most expensive real estate markets dropped to HK$33.60 ($4.33) per square foot in the first quarter, the lowest since the end of 2016, data from Centaline Property Agency Ltd. show. So a typical two-bedroom apartment in Soho now rents for about $3,500 a month, down from $4,200 two years ago.”

“High-end properties in districts including the Mid-Levels and Deep Water Bay favored by western expats and wealthy mainland Chinese saw the most decline, with rents plunging as much as 25% from mid-2019, according to Spacious. Soho in Sheung Wan district, popular among foreign students and young professionals, saw rental values drop by 20% in the same period.”

From News Talk on Ireland. “Officials have found investment funds are not breaking competition rules by leaving Dublin luxury apartments vacant. It’s estimated that hundreds of high-priced flats around the capital are empty. Rents for many of these properties are over €2,000 per month or higher. They are typically owned by large investment funds. It has been reported that owners are afraid to drop prices and get stuck with lower rents.”

“A report from Goodbody stockbrokers estimated that vacancy rates in some new luxury developments are at ‘about 30%.'”

From Domain News in Australia. “Property price growth is outstripping rent growth in Australia’s largest cities as the housing market booms, with the gap most pronounced in the weakened inner-city apartment markets. And if international students are unable to return to Australia soon after more than a year of closed borders to slow the spread of coronavirus, CBD unit values could take a hit, a top economist warns.”

“‘Normally it suggests there’s something unsustainable about it, because the price of a house should reflect the value of the services it provides, and the best measure of those services is the level of rents,’ AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said.”

From Stuff New Zealand. “The Real Estate Institute and Tony Alexander said the Government was achieving its intention of dampening investor demand for existing property, but also causing a reduction in the interest of first-home buyers. Previous house price cycles showed that when predictions of continued strong price gains gave way to talk of prices flattening or falling, young buyers pulled back from the market, the Institute and Alexander said. ‘At the very time conditions move in favour of young buyers they tend to step back, taking their cue from what other parties, such as investors, are doing.'”

“‘People have likely pulled back from the market for the moment amidst high levels of uncertainty about what other people will do, partly because they see a chance that the frenzy of previous months could have pushed prices to unsustainable levels on average in some locations,’ he said.”

“Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said April’s trading was excellent with prices edging slightly higher and strong sales, although sales were down by 40 per cent on March.”

This Post Has 111 Comments
    1. A tennis buddy makes his living as a financial advisor. I asked him if he recommended Dogecoin as an investment. He said he just suggests to anyone who is interested to visit a Las Vegas casino instead.

      1. ‘But the billionaire investor also said of dogecoin, “It would be very dangerous to be short, I’ll tell you that much.”

        “I’m not participating on the long side,” he added. “I think it’s dangerous because once that enthusiasm dies, if it dies, you could have a long way down. But I don’t want to discredit. It’s shocking that it happened.”’

        1. Novogratz is a crypto bull who thinks Dogecoin is awesome, yet he is avoiding it on either the long or the short side of the gamble.

          What’s wrong with this picture?

          1. I’m enjoying the show.

            Unlike the “real” (LOLZ) cryptos Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc, Dogecoin was created as a joke, and nobody has ever denied that it is a joke.

            If it results in millennials losing money, I support it.

          2. Q: How many crypto currencies are in existence?

            One answer that is offered up by the Net:

            “One reason for this is the fact that there are more than 4,000 cryptocurrencies in existence as of January 2021. While many of these cryptos have little to no following or trading volume, some enjoy immense popularity among dedicated communities of backers and investors.”

            The 10 Most Important Cryptocurrencies Other Than Bitcoin

            Interesting Times.

          3. There’s got to be some really smart hackers in the Ukraine, China, etc., that will eventually crack crypto. That would be a fun black swan event to watch.

          4. Unlike the “real” (LOLZ) cryptos Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc, Dogecoin was created as a joke, and nobody has ever denied that it is a joke.

            Is there a fundamental difference between them?

            At least you could plant a tulip bulb and it would grow.

    2. I just pulled up a crypto chart and I have to say I’m shocked. Bitcoin Cash is up almost 60% in 24 hours. Some shitcoins are up 100% in 24 hours. I really don’t get any of this, but I was too cautious to even dip my toes into something that looks like a scam. I don’t know where all of this money is coming from, but I have a sneaking suspicion it’s Wall St. and billionaires heavily involved.

  1. ‘At the very time conditions move in favour of young buyers they tend to step back, taking their cue from what other parties, such as investors, are doing’

    Everybody is behaving like speculators cuz they are Tony.

    ‘People have likely pulled back from the market for the moment amidst high levels of uncertainty about what other people will do, partly because they see a chance that the frenzy of previous months could have pushed prices to unsustainable levels on average in some locations’

    You don’t say…

  2. ‘Small landlords like me will have to somehow figure out how to sell our rentals to pay our mortgages’

    Wa happened to my red hotcakes San Diego?

    ‘For the people that need it, we’re there for them’

    That’s yer first mistake. You don’t negotiate with communists.

    ‘But it’s the blatant abuse that’s really kind of tearing us down, and it’s leaving us frustrated, in debt, with a pit in our stomach. I mean, we’re not sleeping at night because we’re just feeling helpless as property owners’

    Gosh, where do I sign up? Here’s yer elephant in the room, globalist media. How can we have red hotcakes when the very concept of property rights has been trashed?


    1. Step 1: Don’t go into debt in order to buy property for renting it out to others…

    2. Wa happened to my red hotcakes San Diego?

      The problem at this point in time isn’t selling; it’s getting the tenants out.

      Landlords under the new law can no longer evict tenants for “just cause” reasons, such as lease violations, and can only be removed if they are an “imminent health or safety threat.” This makes it one of the strictest anti-eviction laws in the state.

      It also blocks a homeowner from moving back into their property and kicking a renter out, which is allowed now by law.

      When landlords rush to the exits, hotcakes will go cold.

    3. “acrimony resulting from a year of unpaid rent, doubts his tenants, protected by an eviction moratorium”

      On twitter just now that the CDC eviction moratorium has been vacated by a federal judge. Do not have confirmation from second source.

      1. The DOJ has already filed a notice of appeal of the decision and intends to seek an emergency stay of the order pending appeal.

  3. ‘And, just remember, these Just Reduced prices should only be the beginning of your negotiations’

    That’s the spirit UHS, kickem when they’re down!

  4. ‘Class A complexes near LSU, which were overbuilt before the pandemic’


    ‘We have 3,352 vacant units…That doesn’t sound like a lot’

    That does sound like a lot Craig, as in yer fooked!

  5. ‘the market is responding to near-record levels of new inventory’

    Where did all these shacks come from? Were they just built? No. Why that means they were there all along!

    ‘CBD unit values could take a hit’

    In the long ago, maybe a week, this very website reported these CBD airboxes were selling at a whopping loss on decade old purchases. But it’s groundhog day – again.

  6. New York Times — Biggest U.S. Urban Counties Got a Little Less Big (5/4/2021):

    “The nation’s most urban counties lost population for the second year in a row, according to new census population estimates released Tuesday for the year ending on July 1, 2020.

    Domestic out-migration from urban counties accelerated last year, but it was slowing international migration that contributed more to the loss in urban counties, which shrank by 0.3 percent.”

    Defund the police? Not prosecuting theft of less than $1000? Exponentially increasing car theft? Roadblocks and carjackings? Homeless, tents, needles, and feces? I can’t imagine why…

    No more property tax revenue gibs for you!

  7. SF Gate — The East Bay real estate market is so hot, houses are selling for more than $1M over asking price (5/5/2021):

    “When a house in Berkeley sold for more than $1 million over its list price in late March 2021, it was covered in media outlets across the Bay Area, including this one.

    While the Berkeley sale was particularly sensational — it sold for double its list price and received 29 offers — these individual stories are becoming more common in today’s real estate market, according to recent data and anecdotes from real estate professionals.

    And that’s especially true in the East Bay. “People are not surprised when a home goes $1 million over,” said Josh Dickinson, the founder of real estate agency Zip Code East Bay. “When my clients see a house for $1.9 million they’re almost conditioned to think it’ll go over $3 million in Piedmont or North Berkeley.”

    Almost conditioned? That sounds like a really expensive cup of coffee.

    1. I thought the bid wars were madness when we first heard about them while living as BayAryans in early 2000s. But nobody paid double list price back then. That’s next generation insanity…

  8. Still homeless … I upped my budget to $2700 in rent and still can’t find a suitable home in Austin.

    Basically, every listing is pending or receives multiple offers from Cali/NYC transplants who see rents under < $3000 as a steal.

    I may have to leave the city and expend my search. This is very sad.

    1. How many people (and pets if you have them) are in your household? What are your minimum requirements: bedrooms, yard, garage, etc? Transplants are doing the same thing to metro Denver.

      1. 2 adults / 2 pets … 2/3 bedrooms … 2 bathrooms + garage. I don’t care about yard.

        Our realtor showed us a home that just popped up, and when we visited, two other groups of people were waiting to see this rental.

  9. Some local news.

    The ‘Missing Middle’: Denver-area mayors examine duplexes as affordable housing solution (5/4/2021):

    “In the middle of an affordable housing crisis, the “Missing Middle” of housing, duplexes, triplexes, condos and town homes are being examined as one potential solution.

    In Colorado, the Mayor of Englewood, Linda Olsen, pointed out that duplexes in her city are selling for upwards of $600,000, a good deal for developers, but hardly affordable housing.

    “Everything was low slung a decade ago and now it’s huge,” said Doug Pearce, who lives in Denver’s West Colfax neighborhood. “And they are not affordable. They’re like triple the price of everything they’re scraping, you’re increasing the density and the traffic. We’re kind of at our breaking point. I don’t know how much more population density we can take on.”

    “This is a huge issue for employers that their employees can’t afford to live here,” said Kelly Brough, the President and CEO of the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce.

    There’s a duplex built a few years ago in Englewood that faces the parking lot and drive thru lanes of the Chick-fil-A on South Broadway, each side’s last sale price was $685K and $695K:

    Current Zestimate for each is about $800K. LOL@ paying eight hundred thousand dollars to sit on your front porch and watch endless lines of cars in the Chick-fil-A drive thru (this Chick-fil-A is busy busy busy all day long from open to close).

    1. What gets me in my area, the Sacramento valley, is the massive amounts of available land (underused for ranching or farming) on the perimeters, with tiny slices turned over to developers and converted into tight little urban prisons complete with walls. Reach out the window of your SFH and shake hands with the neighbor…if only they were friendly at the planned community of Greed Meadows.

      1. What is the water rights situation? In my little burg you can’t subdivide unless you have water rights, and those are $$$.

        1. In CA the farmers sell you their water rights way more money than growing Almonds . Or Alfalfa.

          1. It’s the same here, farmers are cashing out, selling their water rights for big $$$.

    2. There is a steady exodus from Denver into Larimer and Weld counties, so much so that people there are getting cold calls asking if the want to sell.

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing European equities
      European markets recover after tech stock fall
      US Treasury secretary Yellen walked back comments that had fuelled investors’ inflation fears
      Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said she did not think there was ‘going to be an inflationary problem’
      Naomi Rovnick in London
      4 hours ago

      European equities rebounded from falls in the previous session, when fears of a US interest rate rise sent shares tumbling in a broad decline led by technology stocks.

      The Stoxx 600 index gained 1.3 per cent in early dealings, almost erasing losses incurred on Tuesday. The UK’s FTSE 100 gained 1 per cent.

      Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said at an event on Tuesday that rock-bottom US interest rates might have to rise to stop the rapidly recovering economy overheating, causing markets to fall.

      Yellen then clarified her remarks later in the day, saying she did not think there was “going to be an inflationary problem” and that she appreciated the independence of the US central bank.

      1. Heard a couple of billionaires on the Bloomberg Surveillance program this morning (the only show I listen to on that station). They were talking about inflation. They said at these interest rates, stonk prices are reasonable. If interest rates rise, they won’t be. Yellen let slip the possibility of a modest uptick in interest rates, but quickly walked it back authoritatively. Perhaps some inside info related to that?

        On a separate note, the billionaires were saying inflation is real and that companies are charging higher prices everywhere and consumers are paying it. However, it seems to me wages probably aren’t going up, at least yet anyway. I don’t know if they were telling the truth or talking their book, but if true, that could make the K-shaped recovery more pronounced. And that will have interesting social implications. If the response to covid has been trickle down monetary policy writ large (and it has been IMO), then the upper economic tiers are flush with cash and the lower tiers not so much, and in any price competition, be it for food or shelter (house/rent), they’re going to be pressured.

        1. “They said at these interest rates, stonk prices are reasonable. If interest rates rise, they won’t be.”

          That is about the dumbest belief out there besides “cash on the sidelines.” Low future returns on cash/T-bills don’t justify low returns on stocks.

          1. I like your username. I ‘ll trade if you want. I’ve had a mullet since 1982.

          2. “Low future returns on cash/T-bills don’t justify low returns on stocks.”

            They kind of do, actually: there’s an equilibrium principle which explains this. When interest rates are super low, investors tend to avoid interest-bearing investments in favor of risk assets like stonks, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. But this drives up prices of risk assets. Unless trees can grow to the sky, potential future returns decrease with rising prices.

            The picture for risk asset HODLers will get worse if interest rates eventually return to historic norms, as the flow of money into risk assets can reverse.

          3. Even if they have both priced in low future returns, the main difference is that stocks are risk assets and a claim to a stream of future cash flows. I know that that is an antiquated concept to all of the millennial HODLers and Robinhooders betting on the greater fool theory.

            PS: The Mullet is a lifestyle as much as it is a hair style. Party on!

          4. The Financial Times
            US equities
            US equity valuations questioned as risk premium sinks
            Some calculations suggest reward over risk-free assets is at lowest level of the past decade
            US equity markets have rallied on the back of a swift economic reopening
            Aziza Kasumov in New York
            18 hours ago

            The US equity risk premium, the extra return investors can expect for buying US stocks instead of risk-free government bonds, has fallen to its lowest levels of the past decade by some measures, as the fiery stock market rally stretches valuations.

            Investment strategists have pointed to the indicator to justify a more cautious approach to US equities, which set a record high last week.

            The equity risk premium for the S&P 500 index was “about as low as it can go”, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a recent note to clients, arguing that investors were not compensated sufficiently for the risk of owning equities rather than Treasuries.

            The bank has recently downgraded small-caps and moved into more defensive, higher-quality stocks.

            The nervousness was echoed by others on Wall Street. “I look at [the equity risk premium] now, and we are pretty much at the lowest level that we’ve been post the global financial crisis,” said Greg Boutle, head of US equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas. “It’s something that concerns me.”

            The focus on the equity risk premium marks the latest sign of how the sharp rally since the depths of the coronavirus crisis last March has made equities look expensive by several measures. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings, or Cape ratio, earlier this year pointed to equity valuations sitting at their highest in two decades.

            Morgan Stanley measured the US risk premium by comparing the “earnings yield”, which compares expected profits with stock prices, with the yield provided by 10-year US government bonds.

            Under that measure, the equity risk premium hovered around 2.9 percentage points as of last month, compared with 6.9 percentage points at the market’s bottom in March, and closer to 4 percentage points before the pandemic.

  10. Note that this article does not mention unaffordable housing as a factor.

    The Hill — Birthrate declines to lowest level since 1979 (5/5/2021):

    “The rate of births in the United States fell by 4 percent in 2020, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics, with approximately 3.6 million babies being born.

    That figure represents the sixth-consecutive annual decline in the U.S. and the lowest rate of birth since 1979, Reuters reported.”

    “The birthrate is the lowest it’s ever been,” Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire told the Times.

    “At some point the question is going to be: The women who delayed having babies, are they ever going to have them? If they don’t, that’s a permanent notch in the American births structure,” Johnson added.

    Globalists, and their Real Journalist lapdogs, will argue that this is justification to import the entire populations of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador into the United States.

    Globalists gonna globe.

    1. Globalists, and their Real Journalist lapdogs, will argue that this is justification to import the entire populations of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador into the United States.

      Will they turn those countries into resorts after they empty them out?

    2. I sometimes want kids, but then I look at the costs, at our terrible schools, and at how racist American society has become and I don’t think I’ll participate. It’s sad, but public policy has consequences.

      The only successful young people (i.e., at least one professional job or business owner in the household) I know that are having kids are LDS.

      1. “LDS”

        Same…though I would guess parts of the country have lots of large Catholic families with professional parents, where Catholicism is the dominant religion.

    3. All I see are shacked-up Millenials with dogs. Why have a child which is messy for 3 years when you can get a dog who is messy for 12 years?

        1. This is not life experience talking. I have four adult children. They are always messy. My eldest is 40. She will always, always be a young child.

          We all love each other though, without reservation. Nothing is more important.

  11. This is a pearl clutching article.

    The Atlantic — The Liberals Who Can’t Quit Lockdown (5/4/2021):

    “Progressive communities have been home to some of the fiercest battles over COVID-19 policies, and some liberal policy makers have left scientific evidence behind.

    Lurking among the jubilant Americans venturing back out to bars and planning their summer-wedding travel is a different group: liberals who aren’t quite ready to let go of pandemic restrictions. For this subset, diligence against COVID-19 remains an expression of political identity—even when that means overestimating the disease’s risks or setting limits far more strict than what public-health guidelines permit.

    The spring of 2021 is different from the spring of 2020, though. Scientists know a lot more about how COVID-19 spreads—and how it doesn’t. Public-health advice is shifting. But some progressives have not updated their behavior based on the new information. And in their eagerness to protect themselves and others, they may be underestimating other costs.

    But vigilance can have unintended consequences when it imposes on other people’s lives. Even as scientific knowledge of COVID-19 has increased, some progressives have continued to embrace policies and behaviors that aren’t supported by evidence, such as banning access to playgrounds, closing beaches, and refusing to reopen schools for in-person learning.

    Scientists, academics, and writers who have argued that some very low-risk activities are worth doing as vaccination rates rise—even if the risk of exposure is not zero—have faced intense backlash. After Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University, argued in The Atlantic in March that families should plan to take their kids on trips and see friends and relatives this summer, a reader sent an email to her supervisors at the university suggesting that Oster be promoted to a leadership role in the field of “genocide encouragement.”

    Two words: discretionary spending. I wear a mask to buy groceries at King Soopers and Safeway, because I need food, and I’m not a snowflake who has their groceries delivered.

    Given the choice between wearing a mask to patronize a business for goods and services that are optional, that I can live without, I am not going to patronize that business.

    Get woke, go broke.

    1. Disneyland reopened last week. What a conundrum for leftists and lockdown lovers! Do they stay home and let the white supremacists have all the fun?

  12. Federal Judge just blocked the CDC’s attempt to extend the eviction moratorium once again, sighting over reach. Let the games begin!

      1. There are still a lot of state-level eviction moratoriums, some of which are in effect until “1 month after the end of the public health emergency.” In other words, indefinitely.

        1. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

          — Herbert Stein’s Law

    1. “A federal judge struck down on Wednesday the national eviction moratorium, potentially leaving millions of Americans at risk of losing their homes.”

      Their homes? Hahaha! That’s rich. They’re leeching off the landlords and paying nothing.

  13. A report from Arlington Now in Virginia
    close-in condo lands are down- sfh in the burbs are up

        1. Putting behavior first aka content of character is the most radical idea on college campus today, and it will get you cancelled.

    1. That cop should get an award for maintaining his composure in the face of a blistering personal attack. The video certainly demonstrates that white supremacists don’t have a monopoly on racist behavior.

      1. It also shows that race relations between blacks and mestizos aren’t as rosy as the propaganda machine would like you to believe. Demographics in California also show who is winning that confrontation. Hint: it’s not blacks.

        1. Was in Venice beach a while back and we walked past a high school. The students were out in a fenced in yard and the black students and Hispanic students were at maximal distance apart and totally self segregated. There were no whites(private schools). We have a bleak future.

          1. Many mestizos like to self identify as white. Blacks never will. Obama was half white, yet everyone, including himself, identified him as black.

  14. Does it seem to anyone else like Millennials view stonk investing as a combination of a popularity contest and a video game?

    I doubt that either paradigm
    will withstand the test of time.

    1. Oh dear…

      Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF drops more than 3% amid tech sell-off, off almost 30% from high
      Published Tue, May 4 2021 12:52 PM EDT
      Updated Tue, May 4 2021 4:09 PM EDT
      Maggie Fitzgerald
      Key Points
      – Shares of Ark Innovation fell 3.3% on Tuesday.
      – The “disruptive innovation” ETF is down more than 6.4% this week and 9.2% in 2021, while the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% this year.
      – More than $290 million left Ark Innovation in the last week, according to FactSet.

      Star manager Cathie Wood’s flagship fund —Ark Innovation — is taking a beating Tuesday amid the sell-off in growth stocks.

      Ark Innovation dropped 3.3% on Tuesday, alongside the Nasdaq Composite’s 1.9% tumble. The “disruptive innovation” fund is down more than 6.4% this week and 9.2% in 2021, while the S&P 500 has gained over 10% this year.

      The fund is nearly 30% off its high in February of this year, after which the ETF spiraled on the threat of rising interest rates.

  15. Bubbles are much easier to spot through the rear view mirror than when they are inflating in plain sight, right under your nose.

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Journal Reports: Wealth Management
      Should Young Adults Stretch Financially to Buy a Home?
      Yes, interest rates are still low. The counterargument: It’s a sellers’ housing market.
      May 4, 2021 9:00 am ET

      It is a complex time to be a young home buyer.

      Mortgage rates are near-historic lows, which is luring many people—including first-time buyers—into the housing market. In 2020, sales of previously owned homes surged to their highest level in 14 years, and many economists forecast sales to rise again this year.

      But the supply of homes is tight, and new construction can’t keep up with demand—which means that buyers often have to fork over a staggering amount to close a deal. U.S. house prices soared 12.2% in February from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase in data going back to 1991, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

      For millennials who are looking for a home, this means a tough calculation. Many of them have limited funds and are carrying a lot of debt. So, is it worth stretching their resources to buy a more expensive house if they can lock in a lower mortgage rate for years to come?

      Or should they wait until housing prices cool down to more affordable levels—and risk having mortgage rates rise in the meantime? Already, rates recently hit their highest level since June, and many economists expect them to continue creeping upward this year.

      Subscribe To Read the Full Story

    2. The Great American Housing Bubble: What Went Wrong and How We Can Protect Ourselves in the Future
      Adam J. Levitin, Susan M. Wachter
      Harvard University Press, Jun 9, 2020 – Business & Economics – 352 pages

      The definitive account of the housing bubble that caused the Great Recession—and earned Wall Street fantastic profits. The American housing bubble of the 2000s caused the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression. In this definitive account, Adam Levitin and Susan Wachter pinpoint its source: the shift in mortgage financing from securitization by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to “private-label securitization” by Wall Street banks. This change set off a race to the bottom in mortgage underwriting standards, as banks competed in laxity to gain market share. The Great American Housing Bubble tells the story of the transformation of mortgage lending from a dysfunctional, local affair, featuring short-term, interest-only “bullet” loans, to a robust, national market based around the thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage, a uniquely American innovation that served as the foundation for the middle class. Levitin and Wachter show how Fannie and Freddie’s market power kept risk in check until 2003, when mortgage financing shifted sharply to private-label securitization, as lenders looked for a way to sustain lending volume following an unprecedented refinancing wave. Private-label securitization brought a return of bullet loans, which had lower initial payments—enabling borrowers to borrow more—but much greater back-loaded risks. These loans produced a vast oversupply of underpriced mortgage finance that drove up home prices unsustainably. When the bubble burst, it set off a destructive downward spiral of home prices and foreclosures. Levitin and Wachter propose a rebuild of the housing finance system that ensures the widespread availability of the thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage, while preventing underwriting competition and shifting risk away from the public to private investors.

      1. It seems like the academic bubble commentators are happy to ignore that the anomalous price increases that led up to the crash were never allowed to fully revert to normalcy. We’ve never yet had a proper and lasting capitulation to bring housing prices back down to earth. The beginnings of one was interrupted by post-2009 bailouts.

  16. I mean, we’re not sleeping at night because we’re just feeling helpless as property owners.’”

    Well then, Deana, I suggest you take an active interest in fighting back against our globalist-collectivist overlords.

      1. “My body, my choice.” Except when it comes to experimental COVID-19 vaccines.

        1. “My body, my choice.”

          I always looked at Rosie O’Donnell and thought… surely you didn’t choose that body.

  17. “The FVREB stated that the total active inventory of homes for sale reached 6,030 in April 2021. The board noted that the April inventory was 20 percent higher than in March 2021, and it’s the ‘highest it’s been in six months.”

    Is a 20 percent one month increase in inventory a pretty sized market typical adjustment?

    It’s hard to tell from only one data point, but that almost sounds like what I would expect at the point of bubble collapse, when a frantic crush of investors trying to exit the market at the same time results in an inventory flood and collapsing prices.

    1. “Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said April’s trading was excellent with prices edging slightly higher and strong sales, although sales were down by 40 per cent on March.”

      There is another example of a one month market adjustment so large that it makes you wonder if the wheels may have just now fallen off the bus.

      Or is a 40 percent drop in sales over one month’s time pretty typical for this market?

  18. Are you gonna buy some Dogecoin before its price reaches $60,000? It’s really cheap for now…only $0.60 a token. Get em while they last!

    1. Markets
      Dogecoin jumps above 60 cents as speculative trading in crypto continues
      Published Wed, May 5 2021 7:00 AM EDT
      Updated Wed, May 5 2021 2:52 PM EDT
      Jesse Pound

      Dogecoin rose sharply again on Wednesday and saw wild intraday swings as volatility continued to roll through different sectors of the cryptocurrency market.

      The digital coin based on a Shiba Inu meme was trading at about 62 cents in afternoon trading, up about 10%, after trading near 67 cents earlier in the day. Dogecoin broke above 50 cents per share for the first time on Tuesday.

      This week’s surge comes ahead of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s planned appearance on NBC”s “Saturday Night Live.” Musk is a fan of Dogecoin, and the potential for him to talk about the currency on national television could be driving more demand.

      Dogecoin was started as a joke in 2013, at a time when the cryptocurrency boom was in its infancy and there was a flood of small, primitive coins entering the market. Doge has regained popularity, apparently boosted by attention from billionaires like Musk and Mark Cuban and easy access through free-trading app Robinhood.

      “I worry that, once the enthusiasm rolls out, there’s no developers on it, there’s no institutions coming in. But it’s got this moniker of the people’s coin right now,” Galaxy Digital’s Michael Novogratz said on “Squawk Box.”

      “When you think about the whole theory of what this crypto revolution is, there’s something pure about what dogecoin’s done,” Novogratz said. “It’s a little bit of a middle finger to the system.”

      1. Have you heard about the newish eco-friendly “Chia-coin”?

        If anyone can start a new crypto currency, why are they special?

    1. The Financial Times
      Crypto trading volumes boom as activity cools on stock markets
      More and more daytraders and institutional investors shift their attention to more speculative assets
      Trading on major crypto exchanges soared to $1.7tn in April, from $1.2tn in March and less than $100bn in April 2020, according to CryptoCompare data collated by The Block Crypto
      Philip Stafford and Joe Rennison yesterday

      Trading has boomed in cryptocurrency markets while volumes in stocks and derivatives have tumbled with an increasing number of daytraders and institutional investors setting their sights on more speculative assets.

      A slowdown in equities trading last month contrasted with a frenzied first quarter, during which activity jumped in “meme” stocks like GameStop and AMC, turbocharging the profits of banks, brokers and market makers at the heart of global markets.

      Monthly data from exchanges, and public filings, indicated retail investors, who had helped fuel the surge in share trading for much of the last year, turned their attention to betting in cryptocurrency markets.

      Trading on major crypto exchanges soared to $1.7tn last month, from $1.2tn in March and less than $100bn in April 2020, according to CryptoCompare data collated by The Block Crypto.

      Activity also picked up in some crypto derivatives. Trading volumes in ether futures on the CME, a preferred tool of many institutional investors seeking exposure to one of the hottest digital coins, soared to a record of almost 6,500 contracts on Tuesday compared with fewer than 1,000 on April 1.

      But it has been even more speculative crypto assets like dogecoin, which started as a joke and has been promoted by entrepreneur Elon Musk, that have garnered particularly abrupt spikes in demand.

      “Dogecoin is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of Saturday Night Live,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. The Tesla founder is due to host the popular US television programme this weekend.

      The price of other coins including PancakeSwap and BakeryToken has also rocketed as interest in so-called “alt-coins”, tokens lesser known than industry leader bitcoin, has grown rapidly.

  19. The Comrades of Proven Worth (D) in our NEA indoctrination mills might be useless as far as providing a quality education, but, by golly, they can certainly install leftist self-loathing and ideological wokeness in white children.

    ‘It’s racist and Marxist teaching’: Parents who home-schooled their child in California and left the state over its ‘woke’ curriculum now fight to keep critical race theory out of schools in Utah

    1. to keep critical race theory out of schools in Utah

      I’m surprised the LDS haven’t started their own parochial school system. They certainly have the financial means, given their mandatory tithe. In my neck of the woods they start charter schools., but since those are open to everyone, they don’t fully control them.

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