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Prospective Buyers Are Saying, I Don’t Have To Buy Today, Maybe I Can Get Another $50,000 Off

A report from Yahoo Money. “Eighteen percent of homeowners in the U. S. plan on selling their homes within the next twelve months, according to Realtor.com’s 2022 Home Sellers report. This is more than twice the 8% of homeowners that typically said they planned to sell at the start of the Spring buying season pre-pandemic and almost double the 10% of homeowners who said they planned to sell in 2021.”

“‘I think a lot of homeowners have been obviously looking at the trajectory of prices this past year and have seen the equity in their homes reach record highs,’ says George Ratiu, chief economist for Realtor.com. ‘In a sense, [this year] is a catch-up. It’s over two years of delayed activity about to come on the market this year.'”

The New Jersey Herald. “Out in Sussex County, the party seemed to be winding down. With mortgage rates rising, real estate agent Alexandra Estevez has been recalculating what clients  can afford. Those previously looking in the $550,000 range late last year are now hunting around $400,000 due to higher borrowing costs. Estevez works throughout North Jersey in Warren, Sussex, Morris and Essex counties. Her clients looking for homes in the $400,000 to $600,000 range have gotten frustrated this spring. ‘They’re losing that fire they have,’ she said. ‘It’s become more of a challenge.'”

From WFLA in Florida. “For the more expensive homes, Tampa realtor Stephen Gay said he is already seeing sales slow down in recent weeks. ‘Above $1 million it used to be, even two months ago, you could throw a crazy number out there and you could get multiple offers and it might even go higher than that crazy number. Now I think buyers are getting more data conscience and looking at what things are really worth, rather than being so desperate to get into anything,’ said Gay.”

From WFAA in Texas. “Could the housing fever be cooling off here just a little?  Broker Joe Atkins just had an open house for a new listing. A big asterisk also came to that open house and other very recent listings Atkins has observed. He’s noticing more buyers who are ‘shopping’. Unlike what he, and so many other realtors have been seeing for a while, bidding wars aren’t starting immediately, ‘What we’re seeing is a little slight slowdown as far as people making decisions. So, where we were getting offers right out of the gate–I’m talking the first five hours on the market–a lot of these now aren’t coming in until day 2 or day 3.'”

The Southern California Newsgroup. “House prices started 2022 with a dip in one-third of U.S. markets — including Los Angeles County — as rising interest rates, pricey options and shaky economics seemed to chill the pandemic era’s buying binge. Despite what you may be hearing about widespread pricing strength, the typical buyer paid less in 64 metros — or 35% of all markets tracked — between the first three months of 2022 and last year’s fourth quarter. The weakest metro performance was in Rockford, Ill., down 11.3% in three months, followed by Akron, Ohio, down 9.7%, Topeka, Kansas, down 9.5%, Springfield, Ill., down 9.1% and Binghamton, N.Y., down 7.7%.”

“And last summer, 36 metros had price declines — or 20% of the nation. California’s drops in the third quarter included three of eight metros: San Jose (2.9%), San Francisco (2.5%), and Orange County (0.9%). This same math also details the insanity of spring a year ago. In 2021’s second quarter, there was no quarterly price dips anywhere in the nation.”

From KDVR on Colorado. “According to the latest Market Trends Report from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors, the high This comes after the latest Market Trends Report from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors, which shows that high mortgage rates seen in April are keeping Coloradans from moving around and loosening the housing supply as a result. ‘We normally see an 8.59% increase in month-over-month inventory,’ an overview from Andrew Abrams, chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee read. ‘This month, we saw an outstanding 44.26% increase. While that does equate to less than 1,000 more properties currently on the market it is a forecast of things to come.'”

The Ahwatukee Foothills News in Arizona. “A leading Valley residential real estate analyst is calling out media reports of a continuing surge in rent, saying the most recent data from the Phoenix metro housing market shows rents are starting to fall slightly, available rental units are increasing and nervous landlords are starting to offer deals to attract tenants. Over the last few weeks, the Cromford Report has been identifying data that prompted it to state on April 22: ‘Almost everybody is saying rents are going up. Not in Phoenix, they’re not. With rents going down and mortgage rates and home purchase prices going up, the argument for buying over renting is starting to look significantly weaker.'”

“It’s more than just inventory of single-family homes, townhouses and apartments that is prompting that statement. The Cromford Report noted that inventory of for-sale homes also is rising while the number of closings is trending downward. ‘At the moment the number of homes for sale remains very far below normal, but we have seen before how it can increase sharply if more sellers emerge just as demand is declining.'”

“Stating that the sellers market is slowly deteriorating in 17 major Valley municipalities, the Cromford Report said that between mid-March and mid-April, Cromford Report noted: ‘We have seen a 34% increase in the number of new rental listings added to ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) compared with the same four weeks in 2021.’ It added there has also been a 20% increase in the number of rental homes available in Phoenix on the Progress Residential web site over the past four weeks.”

“What it means, it said, is ‘renters of single-family detached homes are seeing far more choice than they did last year and we are starting to see homes advertised with ‘the first month’s rent is free.’ Rental supply is particularly strong in Gilbert. ‘This appears to be a significant turnaround in the rental market and it does not seem to have been recognized by the media outlets, who are mostly still referring to rising rents. That is so 2021.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Toronto’s housing market slowed in April, with sales dropping 27 per cent and home prices declining as buyers took a pause amid the rise in borrowing costs. Today, homes are taking longer to sell. Properties are drawing a handful of showings, if any at all, and some homes are not getting any offers. ‘It literally changed overnight,’ said Natalie Lewin, a realtor with Re/Max Hallmark Realty Ltd. who has sold homes in Toronto for more than two decades.”

“Prospective buyers are now waiting to see whether home prices will fall further. Rayo Irani, a realtor who has sold homes in the Toronto area for nearly 20 years, said some of his buyers are saying: ‘I don’t have to buy today. I can wait until July. There’s another announcement coming in June. Let’s wait and watch. Maybe I can get another $50,000 off.'”

The Welland Tribune in Canada. “Sales have declined rapidly over the past six or so weeks, said John Pasalis, president of real estate brokerage Realosophy, which is the opposite of what normally happens in the spring for real estate. Fewer buyers and showings combined with owners under pressure to sell have driven down prices along with sales. After seeing ‘the rise of the 905’ during the pandemic, now the market is readjusting, said Simeon Papailias, a broker with Royal LePage who specializes in investment real estate. ‘We’re now going to see the 905 stabilizing, finding its footing,’ he said.”

“The ‘insane’ increases in certain areas of the GTA were not sustainable, he said, so while homeowners and would-be buyers may be looking on with trepidation, by fall the new normal will be apparent.”

From News.com.au in Australia. “A Sydney investor who purchased 12 properties during the pandemic has been hit by a surprise increase in his loan repayments following Tuesday’s rate hike. Bharat Patel settled on his 22nd property purchase just a few weeks before the RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.35 per cent. Despite having 17 mortgages and $3.9m in debt, he claims the increase has only added $750 a month to the total loan repayments on his $8m portfolio – far less than the $8,000 in net rental income he and his wife receive each month.”

“He said he is confident that interest rates won’t go higher than 6 per cent in the short term. ‘If rates go higher than 6 per cent, I think Australia will be in trouble,’ he said. ‘No-one could afford more than 6 per cent currently because of the market. I have properties sitting between $300,000 to $500,000 but imagine people living in Sydney with a mortgage of $3-$4m. If the rate went higher than 6 per cent I think a lot of people would be in trouble and that could burst the whole economy. I’m sure that is not a viable option for the government to consider.'”

From Stuff New Zealand. “A homeowner and her elderly mother are incensed after a developer buyer of their Auckland property asked for a $500,000 discount, just two weeks out from settlement. The developer bought the property sight unseen at auction seven months ago, for $4.07 million – at the time a record price for Drury village. He paid an unrefundable deposit of 5%, but was apparently prepared to forfeit that to walk away from the deal. The developer told Stuff he ‘didn’t want to default’ and was trying to settle the property on time.”

“Property lawyer Jan McNamara, of Mac & Co, said a person (or company) failing to settle on a sales and purchase agreement is ultimately responsible for a breach of contract, and there is a penalty interest clause in a standard contract. The property owner can sue for any losses they suffer, but it is safer to insist on a good deposit upfront. ‘For example, if the owner has to sell to someone else and gets $1 million less, they could sue for that difference,’ she said. ‘But a developer could close down the company, and then you’ve got nothing to sue. This is why it is important to get a good deposit.'”

“McNamara said failure to settle almost always happens when there’s a financial crisis of some sort. It may be because property prices are dropping, which can impact a purchaser’s funding. ‘It’s not just developers (who can get into trouble). It can also be standard purchasers who have bought off the plans or have a long agreement. ‘”

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This Post Has 129 Comments

  1. A lot of people with their pants down.

    ‘Above $1 million it used to be, even two months ago, you could throw a crazy number out there and you could get multiple offers and it might even go higher than that crazy number’

    Winnahs! BTW the TX report is in Dallas.

  2. ‘the opposite of what normally happens in the spring for real estate’

    Wa?

    ‘Fewer buyers and showings combined with owners under pressure to sell have driven down prices along with sales’

    I’m not sure who wrote this, I think it might be the Toronto Star. You still aren’t seeing much about the 20% a$$ poundings that have already occurred.

      1. But speaking from on-the-ground, the realtors and ‘investors’ etc., do not believe that the govt or the Bank of Canada will allow real-estate to crash.

        They have absolutely no clue that interest rates are inter-related around the world – and recession (even small ones) have global impact.

    1. Joe Biden is a pedophile who can not stop groping children. And Joe Biden is a serial sexual predator who can not stop sexually assaulting women.

      His son Hunter Biden is a degenerate drug addict who is also a pedophile, as evidenced by the photos of him seated naked on his niece Natalie’s bed, when she was 14 years old. He also was having sex with his dead brother’s widow.

      The 2020 election was stolen.

  4. ‘Almost everybody is saying rents are going up. Not in Phoenix, they’re not’

    Almost everybody is a lion cromford?

    ‘We have seen a 34% increase in the number of new rental listings added to ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) compared with the same four weeks in 2021.’ It added there has also been a 20% increase in the number of rental homes available in Phoenix’

    Dammit Harry Potter!

    ‘‘renters of single-family detached homes are seeing far more choice than they did last year and we are starting to see homes advertised with ‘the first month’s rent is free.’ Rental supply is particularly strong in Gilbert. ‘This appears to be a significant turnaround in the rental market and it does not seem to have been recognized by the media outlets, who are mostly still referring to rising rents. That is so 2021’

    Arizona Republic? Catherine? Diane?

    Bueller?

    Yer fooked Phoenix.

    1. Just where ARE these Harry Potter rental SFH coming from? It’s not retiring baby boomers milking the family home; boomers retire TO Arizona, not away from it. So what is it? Blackrock rentals? Failed AirBnbs? Fooked developers?

      1. The first link says a lot about the motivation. Time to cash out. They were speculating all along.

    3. Rental supply is particularly strong in Gilbert.

      I was in Gilbert 3 years ago and the overbuilding was mind-blowing, particularly in the multifamily sector. I can imagine a scenario in that godforsaken hellhole where one can buy a nice house for $50,000.

    4. My rent for a small one bedroom in Phoenix went from $1200 to $1600. Only because some California investor bought my complex. The only changes they have done have been cosmetic. They kicked out half of complex many long term tenants.

      1. “…some California investor…”

        Hopefully their investment doesn’t pan-out for them.

      2. ppsf is meaningless unless you’re estimating and bidding work. Houses aren’t bought and sold by the square foot. They depreciate too rapidly and are simply a commodity after they’re constructed.

        The good news is prices fell 22%…… and cratering fast!

        Destin, FL Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Double Digit Price Declines Blanket Florida

        https://www.movoto.com/destin-fl/market-trends/

        As one noted economist stated, “The current housing downdraft makes 2009 seem like a walk in the park.”

  6. “Toronto’s housing market slowed in April, with sales dropping 27 per cent and home prices declining as buyers took a pause amid the rise in borrowing costs.

    Is that a lot?

  7. Today is Thursday, May 5th, 2022 and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

  8. Are the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) in our NEA indoctrination mills getting worried they might someday be held accountable for all the harm they inflicted on kids with their lockdown lunacy?

    ‘Our kids are in crisis’: Pro-remote schooling union leader Randi Weingarten FINALLY admits that at-home learning during the pandemic has caused ‘mental health crisis’ among children

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10783641/Our-kids-crisis-Militant-pro-remote-schooling-union-boss-FINALLY-admits-problem.html

  10. First-time homebuyers in the UK who just had to get up on that property ladder can only tighten their belts so far before having to choose between paying their mortgages or putting food on the table.

    Britons cut back on meat and alcohol as cost of living crisis bites: Shoppers spent 7.8% less on chicken, beef, pork and fish last month compared to 2021 – as energy, fuel and food bills soar

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10784907/Britons-cut-meat-alcohol-cost-living-crisis-BITES.html

    1. It’s like we’re telling the Russians: “We dare, we double dog dare you”

      All he has to do is shut off oil and gas shipments and lights in Europe go off.

    1. Nope! Up $8 a square foot. If you want to go with avg house price that’s worse, it’s up $180,000. Wish you wouldn’t post these meaningless stats across social media. You’re giving false hope.

        1. I saw our cheeto lover in the YouTube comments last week. I forgot the handle but the posts are unmistakable.

      2. ppsf is meaningless unless you’re estimating and bidding work. Houses aren’t bought and sold by the square foot. They depreciate too rapidly and are simply a commodity after they’re constructed.

        The good news is prices fell 13%…… and cratering fast!

        Vienna, VA Housing Prices Plummet 13% YOY As Northern Virginia Housing Market Craters

        https://www.movoto.com/vienna-va/market-trends/

  16. ‘A new movie by conservative activist Dinesh D’Souza exposing illegal vote trafficking in battleground states in the 2020 election opened in more than 250 theaters on May 2.’

    ‘The documentary used cell phone signal tracking, digital geo-fencing, and video surveillance tapes of absentee ballot drop boxes to show that paid intermediaries called “mules” unlawfully gathered and delivered hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots in Democrat strongholds across much of the nation in the 2020 election.’

    ‘Jason Mueller, a UAW member from Wales Township, said, “I’m here tonight to see how and what they were able to steal in the 2020 election.”

    ‘UAW member Anthony Stella of Macomb Township said, “We’ve known for a long time that the 2020 election was stolen. I’m here tonight because I want to see exactly how they did it.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/dsouza-film-takes-proof-of-2020-election-fraud-to-mass-audience_4444055.html

    1. Globalists, please be reminded that the punishment for treason is DEATH ☠️

      Stolen elections have consequences, and the consequence for you, globalists, will be your execution.

  17. “Eighteen percent of homeowners in the U. S. plan on selling their homes within the next twelve months, according to Realtor.com’s 2022 Home Sellers report. This is more than twice the 8% of homeowners that typically said they planned to sell at the start of the Spring buying season pre-pandemic and almost double the 10% of homeowners who said they planned to sell in 2021.”

    What happens when you come to a party and its already over?

    2. “What happens when you come to a party and its already over?”

      You get stuck with the paying the bill?

      You are put to work cleaning up the mess?

    3. What happens when you come to a party and its already over?

      Pink Floyd is playing on the sound system and there’s puke and trash all over the place.

  18. Why get $50,000 off today when you could get $500,000 off in six years? Doesn’t pencil out…

    1. Exactly. I’ve been looking at the mls in a few cities lately, just to see how ludicrous asking prices got. When I look at a $950,000 house, I see a $250,000 house.

  19. Does it seem like Mr Market plunges ever deeper into the crater by the day?

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      U.S. Markets
      Stocks Slide as Investors Reassess Fed Comments
      Technology shares lead losses, while government bond yields rise
      By Caitlin McCabe
      Updated May 5, 2022 10:13 am ET

      U.S. stocks fell, with technology stocks leading the way, as investors assessed the implications of Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening of monetary policy in more than two decades.

      The S&P 500 dropped 2.1% in early trading Thursday. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index lost 3.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 1.6%, or 551 points.

      In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.021%, from 2.914% Wednesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. On Wednesday, bonds staged a rebound alongside stocks before losing steam.
      …

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-05-05-2022-11651736061

    1. Patience, Mr McDuck. Mortgage rates will have to go much higher to cover the inflation risk currently not priced in. They have only begun to rise!

    2. Source?

      mortgagenewsdaily.com shows the avg 30yr at 5.5%. Down from 5.57% just the other day.

      Hoping we hit 6-7% soon.

        1. The latest forecast for mortgage rates(as of yesterday) is 9.825% for 15 year and 12% for 30 years.

    3. “Needs to go to 8”

      Where would rates be if the mortgage markets had to rely on private investors rather than government guarantees?

    4. My first mortgage in 1998 was 7 5/8’s. I was glad to get it. House cost $293K. Same house today $780K. Taxes went from $5K to $16K.

      Doh!

  21. Is China using lockdowns as a smokescreen for its efforts to crash the global economy?

    If so, it’s working!

    2. I was wondering the same. I also wonder if Xi may keep the Covid “crisis” going until the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress in late 2022. Interesting timing.

    3. That could backfire as production could be moved to other countries. Granted, that can’t be done overnight.

      Also, can China lockdown half the country without consequences? Won’t its own economy crash? They have over a billion mouths to feed and rely heavily on food imports.

      1. I watched a collection of China videos the other day. Put together they supported the idea that Xi is crashing the economy to hold onto power. They have over counted population by 100 million. Population has actually been falling for 15 years. The one child thing worked too well. Demographically, a crash is inevitable and underway. So they pulled the plug. Rounding up billionaires, crushing tech companies, eliminating the tutor system which was putting freedom concepts to children and young adults. Not least of all was putting an end to the housing bubble. They are trashing the bond/credit system because they don’t plan on going back to it. Same with the “supply chain” thing. Will it work? Abandoning their bubble ways will have big consequences and they just hope to still have power afterward.

        BTW Shanghai used to have a “team” or clique that XI didn’t like so it was suggested torturing the city is by design to impoverish those families.

    1. “Down, down, down, down underneath the ocean….”
      “Down, down, down, down underneath the ocean….”

  24. Ignoring Powell nonsense talk and everything else. Worker productivity is absolutely the scariest measurement that i have seen since MBS evaluation in the financial crisis.


    Worker productivity fell to start 2022 at its fastest pace in nearly 75 years while labor costs soared as the U.S. struggled with surging Covid cases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

    Nonfarm productivity, a measure of output against hours worked, declined 7.5% from January through March, the biggest fall since the third quarter of 1947.

    At the same time, unit labor costs soared 11.6%, bringing the increase over the past four quarters to 7.2%, the biggest gain since the third quarter of 1982. The metric calculates how much employers pay workers in salary and benefits per unit of output.

    Wall Street already had been looking for a 5.2% drop in productivity and an increase of 10.5% in unit labor costs. On a four-quarter basis, productivity fell 0.6%, the biggest decline since the fourth quarter of 1993.

    1. A lot of people are burned out. Hence the great resignation. And those who aren’t quitting are probably not doing their best.

      Sometimes starting a new job helps vanquish the burn out, until you realize that it’s no better than the old job and that inflation has already eaten away the meager raise you got for jumping ship.

      1. The problem with desk life is that it is unfulfilling in many ways. Given time away from it in excess of a “normal” vacation erects a barrier to return. Given enough time off to figure out life with less money there may be no way to get them back.

        1. I spent a lot of my career in a cubicle farm. An office with a door was the exception, not the rule. The last time I had a cubicle was in 2011. I couldn’t envision going back to one.

          So far my employer is content to let us continue working from home. Turnover in my group has been minuscule, mostly people who are retiring.

        2. Given enough time off to figure out life with less money there may be no way to get them back.

          Speaking from personal experience, this is very true. Not being in debt makes it much easier to figure out.

        3. Given time away from it in excess of a “normal” vacation erects a barrier to return.

          +1

          With everything going on financially right now (costs up, investments down, etc), I’ve been considering going back to work to top up savings while I can. However, every time I think about the specifics of a job, working somewhere, etc…I just don’t want to deal with all the crap that goes along with it.

          I’m not sure I can get over that hump… If I could just do what I do (and quite well, I believe) I’d gladly go back to work..but the things you and In Colorado reference just makes it unpalatable

          2. That’s it right there!

            And for me, the industry I used to represent disgusts me after COVID.

          3. Red, the FDA is now being disgusting. They just “restricted” the J&J vaccine due to the blood clots. Coupla problems:

            1. CNN says that the blood clot rate is 60/18.7 million, i.e. 1 in 312,000. This is the same rate from a year ago. So why restrict now?
            2. The restrictions are thus:
            No J&J for kids under 18.
            No J&J if there is another vaccine available
            But you can still get J&J if J&J is the only vaccine you are comfortable with.

            WHAT??!?
            The reason for the restriction is no different than it was a year ago.
            J&J was never approved for kids under 18, so that’s not really a restriction either.
            If you can still get J&J just by saying “I’m uncomfy with mRNA,” then what is the restriction?

            There IS no restriction. I sincerely think that Pfizer paid off the FDA to do a non-restriction restriction for the sole purpose of giving J&J a bad rap, and distract from the Pfizer data dump.

          4. the FDA is now being disgusting

            My husband and I were just talking over dinner how horrified my mother would have given her experience as a regulatory professional specializing in gene therapy. She would have been screaming from the rooftops alongside Dr. Robert Malone.

  25. Wow – Diane Olick (CNBC) did a cautionary story on housing. Are they catching up to the facts — or is this a sign of worse things to come.


    t is not exactly surprising, given the stunning jumps in both home prices and mortgage rates, but Americans have never been more bearish on buying a house.

    Just 30% of adults surveyed by Gallup said now is a good time to buy a home, down 23 percentage points from a year ago. That is the first time the share has been below 50% since the question was first asked in 1978. (The results are from Gallup’s annual Economy and Personal Finance poll, which was conducted April 1-19.)

    Home prices are up 34% since the start of the pandemic, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. The record increase in prices was fueled by mortgage rates, which set more than a dozen record lows in the first year of the pandemic. Rates, however, have shot up more than two full percentage points in just the last few months.

    Home affordability is nearly the worst its ever been. Due to higher prices and interest rates, the mortgage payment on an average home is now nearly $2,000 more than just before the pandemic began.

    1. ‘now nearly $2,000 more than just before the pandemic began’

      There goes the avocado sandwiches. A reader sent in this bloomberg title:

      Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.27%, Highest Since 2009

      1. Ah yes the 2009 5+% interest rates. When $52/sq ft* was the typical cost.
        *Your location may vary

        Knew a guy in San Jose ca sold a property for $1.2 mil circa 2007. I could see $47k for his house on a good day. Cant imagine who would look at a home like that and think 1.2 mil is an ok price.

  26. From yesterday:

    ——
    oxide
    May 4, 2022 at 6:44 am
    I’m still tracking the flip house on my block. It had two open houses this weekend; but no sign of pending either on the yard sign or on Zillow. I think it’s going to sit until somebody lops off $25-30K.
    … My guess is the reno guy put in $70K+ of materials along with six months of his sweat equity.

    iamrefreshed
    May 4, 2022 at 3:30 pm
    $70K, 6 months work, overhead, insurance, illegal wall rocker…?
    He needs $200K over buy price to break even.
    ———–

    What is a “wall rocker,” illegal or otherwise? Google tells me it’s a light switch or a reclining chair. (?) There is a barely legal 4th bedroom in the basement. And yes, the list price is about $200K over buy price. Which he’s not going to get. I’m not even sure a $25K lop is enough – they might have to lop $50K, which is $150K over buy price.

    2. “What is a “wall rocker”

      “illegal wall rocker…?”

      My guess is illegal sheet rocker.

      1. you can’t be racist. I’m already racist.
        your racist
        I’m racist
        let’s EAT!

        (nod to Bob K & crew: chef Ptomaine, waitress Betty varicose, & bus boy Sal monella)

  29. Pop quiz for anyone who knows:

    How many days would it take the NASDAQ to lose 50% of its value at a rate of 5% drop per day?

      1. Not bad. I use the “Rule of 72”:

        72 / 5 = 14.4 days.

        Check:

        (1 – 0.05)^14.4 = 0.48 = 48%

        Good enough for gubment work.

    2. I think the right question would be how long would it take the index to drop by 80%.

      1. To answer your question, I recommend this calculation:

        (1-0.05)^x = (1-0.8)

        Solution:

        x = log(1-0.8)/log(1-0.05)
        = 31.4 days

        You can copy and paste the right hand side of my formula into Google’s search line, which quite miraculously turns the search engine into a mathematical calculator.

  30. Tomorrow’s jobs report will have to be spectacularly bad for ‘markets’ to have any chance.

    2. As Ben so eloquently puts it: Powell just broke it off in the a$$ of housing speculators.

      1. “…housing speculators….”

        Wondering out loud when hedge funds (ie Blackstone) will start dumping speculative housing investments.

        Me thinks it is got to be soon.

        These guys are greedy, soulless and ruthless.

        They would squeeze the last drop of blood out of their own mothers and do it with a grin on their faces.

        1. They would squeeze the last drop of blood out of their own mothers and do it with a grin on their faces.

          Maybe our mothers. Never forget that the banking clan are multigenerational. They intend to pass their financial empires onto their offspring, while joe sixpack is the one with a “Spending my kids inheritance” bumper sticker.

        2. The largest group of speculators is not private equity or outfits like blackstone. It is lying Realtors themselves. This is why Realtors are the loudest but smallest number of deniers out there.

      2. Which raises the related question:

        At what point did the Fed become housing speculators’ bitch?

    1. It’s amazing just how dark those clouds are, and how easily those trailers are tumbled until they break open spewing their contents.

      1. trailers are tumbled

        I was in the path of a bad one in 1985 in Western PA. A brick house across the road was entirely sucked up into the sky. May 30th 9:15PM IIRC.

      2. Growing up in Tornado Alley, our dark humor description for trailer parks was “tornado magnets”.

    1. Channeling my inner Irving Fisher:

      Bitcoin prices have reached what looks like a permanently low plateau.

    1. Or to put my question in other words, have we reached the bottom of the CR8R yet?

        1. The Financial Times
          Markets Briefing
          European equities
          European shares drop after sharp falls on Wall Street
          US stock futures point lower in morning trading
          The Wall Street bull statue
          Wall Street investors are worried about the pace of US interest rate rises
          © Getty Images
          Naomi Rovnick an hour ago

          European shares slid on Friday, following a grim day on Wall Street, as investors fretted over the global growth outlook.

          The regional Stoxx 600 share index lost 1.2 per cent, putting it on track to end the week more than 3 per cent lower. London’s FTSE 100 lost 0.8 per cent and Germany’s Xetra Dax fell 1 per cent.

          Bearish sentiment was reflected in a bruising session overnight in US stocks as investors worried about the likely pace of interest rate rises as an economic recession looms.
          …

  35. The Financial Times
    Markets Briefing Equities
    Nasdaq closes down 5% in sharpest fall since 2020
    Heavy stock and bond sell-off erases prior day’s gains as investors engage in ‘capitulation trade’
    Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell at a meeting
    The Fed announced its first 0.5 percentage point interest rate rise in more than 20 years, but chair Jay Powell appeared to rule out 0.75 percentage point increases at upcoming meetings © Win McNamee/Getty
    FT reporters yesterday

    Wall Street closed sharply lower on Thursday in an abrupt reversal from the rally in the previous trading session, with the Nasdaq registering its biggest one-day decline since June 2020 and the largest U-turn since the start of the pandemic.

    The Nasdaq Composite, comprised of many of the largest US technology companies, fell 5 per cent. The rally on Wednesday and the retreat on Thursday marked the sharpest gyration in the index since March 2020, with the Nasdaq oscillating more than 8 percentage points over two days of trading.

    The blue-chip S&P 500 index also declined significantly on Thursday, sliding 3.5 per cent with more than 95 per cent of the stocks in the benchmark ending lower.

    “Today is the first day I remember feeling just bad,” said Danny Kirsch, the head of options at Piper Sandler. “They have felt bad for a while but this is a more encompassing bad. There was nowhere to hide today.”
    …

  36. Does it seem as though rising interest rates are causing US home buyers to lose their minds?

    1. The Financial Times
      Property sector
      US homebuyers stretch finances to beat rising rates in hot market
      Shoppers settle for less space and take second jobs in response to declining affordability
      For sale sign in front of a house
      The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate hit 5.27 per cent this week, up from 2.96 per cent a year ago
      © Getty Images
      Imani Moise in New York
      3 hours ago

      Americans are stretching their budgets to buy new homes, hustling to strike deals quickly to avoid higher mortgage financing costs later, according to the latest industry data.

      Lenders and realtors said the willingness of buyers to devote more of their income to mortgage payments was providing support for housing prices just as rising rates were eroding affordability.

      Determined consumers are driving a “very, very aggressive, fast-moving spring market as we head into the homebuying season”, said Matt Vernon, head of retail lending at Bank of America.,

      He said expectations of higher rates are “pushing these buyers into the market”, and they are “getting more aggressive in their pursuit of home ownership from a timing perspective”.

      Mortgage rates have reached their highest levels in more than a decade, according to the latest Freddie Mac survey published on Thursday. The average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 5.27 per cent, up from 2.96 per cent a year ago.
      [Line chart of Average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loan (%) showing US mortgage rates have climbed to highest level in more than a decade]

      Rising interest rates typically lead to a decrease in mortgage applications, but applications for new mortgages rose 4 per cent from the previous week, according to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday.

      The MBA’s latest affordability index highlighted the determination of homebuyers. The average payment from new mortgage applications in March accounted for 42 per cent of an average American’s income, compared to 34 per cent a year before, according to an FT analysis of MBA and federal data.

      “If we can make it happen now, we want to make it happen now,” said Brittany Majors, a 37-year-old resident of New York City who said that she has been outbid 10 times on homes in the New Jersey suburbs in the last six months.
      …

  37. Is the Wall Street Journal “disinformation”

    FDA Limits Authorized Use of J&J’s Covid-19 Vaccine (5/5/2022):

    “The Food and Drug Administration limited the use of the Covid-19 vaccine from Johnson & Johnson after reviewing the risk of life-threatening blood clots.

    The agency said Thursday that the J&J shot’s authorization was now only for adults for whom other shots aren’t available or medically appropriate, or who won’t take another vaccine.

    The change will likely sharply scale back use of a vaccine that health authorities had once hoped would be a convenient option for many people, but has become a third choice for most people because of the emergence of the risk for the rare but life-threatening side effect.”

    https://archive.ph/UQGDb

    COVID vaccines are poison.

  38. Is he talking about me?

    The Federalist — Biden Just Had His ‘Deplorables’ Moment (5/4/2022):

    “Six years after Hillary Clinton wrote off half the country as “deplorables” and derailed her own campaign, a desperate Joe Biden is following her failed playbook, only this time as president.

    At the White House on Wednesday, Biden stoked hysteria over the potential overturning of Roe v. Wade after a majority draft opinion from February was leaked on Monday night. In doing so, Biden depicted half the country he represents in the Oval Office as zealous extremists who are hellbent on a new era of segregation.”

    https://thefederalist.com/2022/05/04/biden-just-had-his-deplorables-moment/

    The Democrat Party is the party of:

    Raping kids
    Killing unborn kids
    Poisoning kids with phony vaccines

    This is the Democrat Party, and this is the electoral platform of the Democrat Party for 2022 and 2024.

  39. Commercial real estate.

    Politico — Democrats clash over return to office as NYC cubicles sit vacant (5/4/2022):

    “The split means there’s no shared vision for the post-pandemic future of the nation’s largest metropolis, whose office workers have returned at a slower rate than in most other big cities in the U.S. …

    the intraparty divide has continued. Moderate Democratic leaders such as Adams and Gov. Kathy Hochul are pushing for a more robust return to the office that they say is crucial for the city’s economic recovery, while Democrats to their left argue they should accept that many workers prefer to be remote for the long haul, and New York City’s economy should adapt accordingly.

    The split means there’s no shared vision for the post-pandemic future of the nation’s largest metropolis, whose office workers have returned at a slower rate than in most other big cities in the U.S. …

    most New Yorkers aren’t listening to the pleas of the mayor, who said last week, “The financial ecosystem of this city depends on people being in office.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/04/democrats-divided-over-return-to-office-amid-new-yorks-recovery-00029414

    “Office occupancy in New York City is at 32.9 percent of pre-pandemic levels as of the week of April 20”

    32.9 percent is that a lot?

    Happy *TWENTY SIX* month anniversary of “two weeks to flatten the curve”

    1. A huge portion of insurance annuity portfolios and pension plan assets is the performance commercial real estate, which has been scuttled by the COVID crisis. Few if any firms are signing new leases until the crisis is behind us.

    2. Taken together, those charts tell a very interesting story: By late 2018, the bond market was already starting to slide into the crater. Then well before COVID-19 became a concern, some mysterious force turned the market around and initiated a rally that continued apace through most of the pandemic. Most recently, with the Fed’s pledge to withdraw pandemic era stimulus measures, the market has rapidly slid back as deep into the crater as it was at year-end 2018.

      Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess!

    1. We are hiring third and fourth year apprentices, and licensed journeyman electricians.

      If you just got laid off from Netflix, or some mortgage sweatshop, consider getting a real job.

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