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Ownership Is The Dream…And The Devil’s Bargain

A report from Toronto Storeys in Canada. “While Canadian real estate prices fell slightly in May — down 1.1% from April to an average of a little over $688,000 — Canada’s housing market is still flashing red warning signs that haven’t been seen since the lead up to the 2008 financial crisis. However, it’s not just Canada’s housing market that’s causing cause for concern, as real estate prices around the world are also showing bubble-risk warning signs, according to a new report from Bloomberg Economics.”

“‘The risk is greater when there’s a synchronized boom in house prices — as is the case in the current cycle,’ economist Niraj Shah wrote in the report. Like the CMHC’s forecast, RBC economist Robert Hogue believes price increases will also be in the double-digits in 2021, although a ‘much-desired soft landing’ has been pushed into 2022.”

From CBC News in Canada. “The average selling price of a Canadian home was $688,000 last month, a figure that has risen by more than 38 per cent in the past year. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which represents real estate agents across the country, said that while prices are still up sharply from a year ago, the gains appear to be moderating. The $688,000 figure is down from $696,000 in April and just over $716,000 in March, which suggests that while comparisons to the early days of COVID show a red-hot market, it is in fact cooling.”

“Home sales hit nearly 70,000 in March, but in the two months since, have fallen by 11 and now seven per cent. Sales fell in May in every province. Lindsay Gilliss of Stevensville, Ont., near Niagara Falls, says that despite having a good job, she’s been priced out of her hometown’s housing market, so she’s relieved to see things cooling down a bit. ‘I’m willing to dip my toes in, but I want to see how this plays out,’ she told CBC News. ‘Will it go back to pre-pandemic prices? Absolutely not…. But will we get to a calmer period where we can actually negotiate real prices and real conditions? That’s what I’m hoping for.'”

From ABC News in Australia. “Jonty Dalton and Lucy Smith are about to achieve the Australian home ownership dream, but on a smaller scale. Rather than wait for house prices to go down or new government support to be announced, the Hobart couple have found a different solution: a tiny house. For Lucy and Jonty, the cost of their tiny house was around $120,000, including solar panels. Their solution isn’t an option for everyone — for one, they needed a friend willing to let them use their land for a much smaller rental cost than buying their own block.”

“It means they’re now committed to a seven-year loan, instead of staring down the barrel of a 30-year mortgage. ‘Tiny houses offer an affordable living solution that gives you everything you need for a much lower price,’ Jonty said. ‘In a way, that’s different to any kind of system we currently have.'”

“There are several federal government schemes aimed at reducing the time people need to save before they can buy a home. ‘[The schemes] acknowledge that the barrier for first home buyers predominantly is getting that deposit together, particularly in a low interest rate environment like we are at the moment,’ Federal Housing Minister Michael Sukkar told The Business. ‘I think it’s for that reason that we’ve seen first home buyers at their highest levels in nearly 15 years.'”

“The deposit schemes and stamp duty concessions may make it easier for some would-be buyers to save the required amount to enter the market. However, they also add to the demand for housing and therefore contribute to higher prices, as more people try to jump into the market sooner. Professor Ong ViforJ says additional reform is needed, to reduce tax incentives for housing investors.”

“‘Many of them already own a family home, but they’re seeking that attractive investment by purchasing the second or the third property,’ she said. ‘All these concessions that are in place are actually over-stimulating demand for housing and we could look at reforming them.’ That’s not politically popular, however.”

“‘They’re painful solutions … we do need political leadership and willingness amongst our policymakers to execute them,’ Professor Ong ViforJ said. Labor lost the 2019 federal election after campaigning on scrapping negative gearing for existing properties and halving the capital gains tax discount.”

From Interest New Zealand. “The average value of homes at both the top and bottom ends of the market is continuing to rise but at a slower pace than previously, according to Quotable Value (QV). Many of the biggest declines occurred in centres where the housing market has been hottest, such as Marlborough, Wellington City and Napier.”

A comment: “Given that our Government and Reserve Bank have put housing front and center in driving our economy, with business firmly in the back seat being told to shut up, news of the moderation in house price growth is unfortunate. My guess is the average Kiwi, forced to scrape by on meager local wages, will turn very hostile towards those institutions. Home ownership is the New Zealand dream…and the Devil’s bargain.”

Another said: “We need DTI ratios urgently and they must also apply to everyone including first home buyers. IMO the reason they want to exclude first home buyers fib DTI ratios, is because then it could cause house prices to fall if FHBs aren’t able or willing to pay the insane highly inflated house prices. DTI ratios need to be a circuit breaker to break the cycle.”

From The Beacon. “Kansas City, Missouri, is in the top five housing markets with the greatest year-over-year decline in affordability: The median price of a Jackson County home has gone up to $240,000 as of May 2021. When Lauren Allen, 32, of Kansas City, Missouri, began looking for a home toward the end of 2020, there were times when she would be one of the top bidders. But there were other times when she noticed buyers offering cash down or waiving appraisal. ‘There were times where I was still shocked by how far a buyer would go,’ she said.”

“Then Allen noticed a ‘coming soon’ sign in front of a home in Kansas City’s Hyde Park neighborhood. She bought the house for $250,000 — under her budget — and closed within 10 days.”

“Robbie Wegley, 28, and his wife wanted a house with a basement, garage, more than one bathroom for the couple and their 5-year-old son. Wegley and his wife placed offers on five homes. They got beat every time. In early 2021, the couple’s real estate agent heard of a duplex that was back on the market after a previous deal had fallen through. ‘They pretty much just said, ‘If you match the offer, and you do it tonight, you’ll get it,’ Wegley said. “So we found out about it after work, saw it a couple hours later and had an offer within four hours of hearing about it, and it was accepted that night.'”

“The couple hadn’t originally wanted a duplex — they wanted a single-family home. But the circumstances meant making compromises. It’s not the market many young Kansas Citians thought they would find. ‘That’s one of the things that, growing up, you hear is so great about Kansas City, is the cost of living here,’ Wegley said. ‘People my age grew up hearing that, and then they go to buy a house, and they find out that it’s actually not going to be that great anymore. And it’s getting worse.'”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “Home values are up seemingly everywhere in the Bay Area except San Francisco. Yet while the city is an exception in the region, the ‘San Francisco exodus’ — people leaving the city, causing rents and home values to drop precipitously — has actually been the norm within major U.S. metropolitan areas, according to research.”

“While most of the neighborhoods we looked at saw home values increase from January 2020 through April 2021, estimated values declined in 74 of them — 55 of which were in San Francisco. Additionally, San Francisco made up the top 37 neighborhoods in the Bay Area with the steepest declines in home values. The Tenderloin neighborhood saw the steepest decrease in home values over the pandemic; the neighborhood’s estimated median home value went from about $780,000 at the end of January 2020 to $690,000 at the end of April, a decrease of almost 12%.”

“Home values sank in the more affluent neighborhoods of Cow Hollow and the Marina as well; both neighborhoods saw value declines of more than 11%, from roughly $3.7 million to $3.3 million, and $2.5 million to $2.2 million, respectively.”

“In May, economists Arjun Ramani and Nicholas Bloom from Stanford University published a study examining pandemic migration patterns and real estate markets within the 12 biggest metropolitan areas. Nationwide, the study found that the ‘doughnut effect’ had created home value losses of around 15 percentage points in major cities’ densest urban ZIP codes relative to changes in less-dense surrounding ones.”

From North Jersey. “Thea Gleason juggles jobs to support her family of four in Little Egg Harbor, supplementing her salary as a high school English teacher with a second job at a storage facility. She usually waitresses as well, but that gig fell through when the COVID pandemic hit, reducing her income. So her family applied to their lender for mortgage forbearance. It was granted, and allowed them to put off payments for a year, through the end of this month. ‘So we could buy food instead,’ Gleason said.”

“Gleason, 47, recently received a letter from her mortgage lender that said the company would ‘work with her,’ and provided instructions to apply for additional mortgage assistance. Gleason’s understanding is that she can refinance her loan, or work out a repayment plan. She hopes they can move the nearly $10,000 she owes in delayed payments to the end of her mortgage, instead of increasing monthly payments or paying it back in one lump-sum check, which they can’t afford, she said.”

“‘I don’t have thousands of dollars to pay something back immediately because it’s not like I’ve built up savings,’ Gleason said. ‘So it’s scary. It would just be easier for everybody if whatever amounts you owe just get added to the end of your loan,’ Gleason said. ‘Anything other than that would kill us financially, or could result in foreclosure because we have no ways to come up with huge sums of money right now. I imagine that’s the case for most people who took advantage of assistance like this.'”

“Melissa Arcaro Burns was granted more than a year’s forbearance on the mortgage for her family home in Haddonfield, which she rents out to tenants. That has let her delay nearly $18,000 worth of mortgage payments. But her tenants were sporadic paying the $2,300 monthly rent even before the pandemic, she said. In landlord-tenant court filings, she lists $13,800 worth of unpaid rent from December 2019 through May 2020, and Arcaro Burns said the renters haven’t paid her in any month that followed.”

“Her property’s bank account is now empty, she said, because she had to continue making about $13,000 in payments for property taxes, insurance, water and sewer, but didn’t have the rental income coming in to cover them.”

“‘If I don’t pay my taxes, I risk the township coming after me, placing a lien on my home, and having that lien sold and losing the house,’ said Arcaro Burns, 45. ‘This house has been in my family since the 1970s, and belonged to my grandparents until they sold it to us. My first child was born in that house and I envisioned passing it on to one of my kids. I’m really attached to that house.'”

“Arcaro Burns and her renters are in talks, trying to come to an agreement for a repayment plan. The tenants declined to comment. ‘I just have no recourse,’ Arcaro Burns said. ‘Once our account was totally depleted, and I really felt like I’ve done everything by the books, I really felt like I didn’t have anywhere to go.'”

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  1. ‘published a study examining pandemic migration patterns and real estate markets within the 12 biggest metropolitan areas. Nationwide, the study found that the ‘doughnut effect’ had created home value losses of around 15 percentage points in major cities’ densest urban ZIP codes’

    First: eat yer crowz Thornberg. Second, wa happened to my red hotcakes? Sounds like the a$$ pounding is spread wide.

    The media is part of the REIC. And these people are dogs who would sell their grannies for another months commission.

    1. We want more articles about buyer regret.

      Millennial tales of financial suicide give me a warm fuzzy feeling.

    2. The media is part of the REIC.

      Just heard a segment on NBC Nightly News which was providing advice to buyers – “understand the true price, not merely the listing price”, which based on the previous vignette of the buyers losing out to 100K over asking on a 1000-some square foot house, was that to start bidding at well over asking. And then the real estate agent said, “buyers aren’t going to get a better deal if they wait” (for the end of covid and a return to normalcy). I thought that was a bold statement considering the other covid-induced supply disruptions.

      Gotta understand the media business model and who the advertisers are.

  2. Sell to blackrock lady

    Arcaro Burns and her renters are in talks, trying to come to an agreement for a repayment plan. The tenants declined to comment. ‘I just have no recourse,’ Arcaro Burns said. ‘Once our account was totally depleted, and I really felt like I’ve done everything by the books, I really felt like I didn’t have anywhere to go.’

    1. You can see that “we’re all in this togetha” stuff was a load of horsesh$t all along.

      1. ‘Meghan Markle has been slammed for the over-the-top pricing of her children’s audiobook ‘The Bench.’ The $15 audiobook proved to be so unpopular that its price was slashed in half within hours of its release.’

        ‘With a runtime of 1 minute and 47 seconds or 107 seconds, the children’s audiobook was so expensively priced when it was released that Express pointed out that listeners were paying 8 cents per word. It definitely made the list for one of the most expensive audiobooks’

        ‘The audiobook highlights families of different skin colors and backgrounds, from a light-skinned soldier returning home to a dark-skinned man in dreadlocks, representing Meghan’s own inter-racial family structure’

        https://meaww.com/meghan-markle-charges-15-dollars-107-second-the-bench-audiobook-flops-price-slashed

  3. ‘‘I don’t have thousands of dollars to pay something back immediately because it’s not like I’ve built up savings,’ Gleason said. ‘So it’s scary’

    Cue endless studies telling us how much richer shack owners are.

    ‘It would just be easier for everybody if whatever amounts you owe just get added to the end of your loan,’ Gleason said. ‘Anything other than that would kill us financially’

    Now that’s some red hotcakes right there!

    ‘or could result in foreclosure because we have no ways to come up with huge sums of money right now. I imagine that’s the case for most people who took advantage of assistance like this’

    There’s only a couple million+ of these FBs in the US.

    1. Debt slaves …

      ‘‘’I don’t have thousands of dollars to pay something back immediately because it’s not like I’ve built up savings,’ Gleason said. ‘So it’s scary’”

      Oh, how I love this!

      “‘It would just be easier for everybody if whatever amounts you owe just get added to the end of your loan,’ Gleason said. ‘Anything other than that would kill us financially or could result in foreclosure because we have no ways to come up with huge sums of money right now.'”

      Bahahahahaha … I now have them right where I want them.

      OMG, some people are so incredibly stupid.

      1. To be fair, I’m not against tacking those payments onto the back of the loan. After all, it’s not as if the banks can’t afford to take the hit. Banks have access to Fed-munny.

        1. I am not against any lengthening of time that these pukes willingly enslave themselves to me. A worthy goal of mine would be their entire lifetimes.

    2. “Cue endless studies telling us how much richer shack owners are.”

      Why do I suspect that such studies fail to include those who went broke and lost their homes to foreclosure from the sample?

  5. ‘For Lucy and Jonty, the cost of their tiny house was around $120,000, including solar panels’

    And they don’t even have any real estate. They paid 120K Australian pesos for a wood box sitting in someones back yard.

    ‘‘They’re painful solutions … we do need political leadership and willingness amongst our policymakers to execute them,’ Professor Ong ViforJ said. Labor lost the 2019 federal election after campaigning on scrapping negative gearing for existing properties and halving the capital gains tax discount’

    Yep, they voted for this. Not mentioned was the side that won (so called conservative mind you) ran on inflating shack and airbox prices. Airboxes are selling at 40% off, but that’s how the cookie crumbles.

    1. “…They paid 120K Australian pesos for a wood box sitting in someone’s back yard….”

      (Backyard not included, just the box)

      Pretty expensive wood box.

      I would just love to see a Bill of Materials for one of these wood boxes to determine how it would be even mathematically possible to come anywhere close to $120K.

      Per Wikipedia, the typical size of a small home seldom exceeds 500 ft(sq) (46 m2)

      Thus, $120,000 / 500ft(sq) =~$240ft(sq)

      $240ft(sq) exceed the cost of many structures that *include* land and hookups to city services!

      1. The sad part is that people don’t realize that they are essentially buying a glorified trailer. I’d argue that a lot of standard RVs are nicer than these “tiny homes,” and a lot less expensive in many cases.

        Real estate is all about LAND. Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

        1. As with anything else, so long as you don’t pay too much.

          A national land broker explained, “There is a globe full of land were fully 95% of it goes undeveloped. Land is essentially worthless dirt. If you paid more than $500 an acre, you got ripped off.”

          He’s right.

          Atkinson, NC Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY As Rural Land And Housing Prices Plummet

          https://www.movoto.com/atkinson-nc/market-trends/

        2. “…Real estate is all about LAND…”

          Absolutely.

          As discussed many times here on the HBB, a structure no matter how well made, is a depreciating asset.

        3. “Real estate is all about LAND.”

          Well I’m grateful that SOMEBODY is allowed to say this. I’ve tried to comment that the land appreciates and HBB slams me every time.

          The complaint about tiny houses is that they cost more per square foot. That’s reasonable, since the entire house is basically kitchen and bathroom, not raw floor space. However, $240 is still excessive. And some of those “bathrooms” are freakin’ buckets.

          2. It will be interesting to see if land hoarders follow lumber hoarders’ lead, the next time land prices crater.

          3. The Wall Street Journal
            Commodities
            Lumber Prices Are Falling Fast, Turning Hoarders Into Sellers
            Prices have dropped from record highs, spurred by the economic reopening and potentially pointing to an eventual return to normalcy
            How the Pandemic Made Lumber America’s Hottest Commodity
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            How the Pandemic Made Lumber America’s Hottest Commodity
            How the Pandemic Made Lumber America’s Hottest Commodity
            Demand for lumber has skyrocketed during the pandemic, sending prices to all-time highs. This video explains what’s driving the lumber boom, who’s profiting, and why those growing the trees aren’t reaping the benefits.
            By Ryan Dezember
            Updated June 15, 2021 8:29 pm ET

            Lumber prices are falling back to Earth.

            Futures for July delivery ended Tuesday at $1,009.90 per thousand board feet, down 41% from the record of $1,711.20 reached in early May. Futures have declined 14 of the past 16 trading days.

            Cash lumber prices are also crashing. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks on-the-spot sales, dropped $122 to $1,324, its biggest ever weekly decline. The pullback came just six weeks after the index rose $124 during the first week of May, its most on record. Random Lengths described a chaotic rout in which sawmill managers struggled to provide customers with price quotes. It said late Tuesday that its index had dropped another $114, to $1,210.

            Economists and investors have wondered if sky-high prices for wood products would doom the booming housing market. Builders raised home prices and many stopped selling houses before the studs were installed, lest they misjudge costs and sell too cheaply. Lumber became central to the inflation debate: whether a period of runaway inflation was afoot or high prices were temporary shocks that would ease as the economy moved further from lockdown.

            The rapid decline suggests a bubble that has burst and the question is how low lumber prices will fall. Even after tumbling, lumber futures remain nearly three times what is typical for this time of year.
            …

          4. I guess REIC porcine beauticians won’t hence forth be able to blame crazy high house prices on the cost of lumber, now that lumber prices have collapsed.

            I wonder how the supply-and-demand analysts will revise their messaging to get past this inconvenient truth?

          5. I’ve tried to comment that the land appreciates and HBB slams me every time.

            Land is highly speculative, and much more volatile. In the areas where house prices crashed 60% last time, the land fell 90% and more.

      2. Back from Nam, Dad had a stroke. Need a place. Decent 1bd apt in Fallbrook, CA is ~2,000.
        Went to open house in complex i rented in for a couple of years. Nice.
        This location is the best in the whole complex. On the 7th green. I could sit on the patio all day and be happy. Chip and putt at dusk.
        The finance lady at the open house said this property qualifies for a USDA loan. Zero down. Monthly nut is about $2200 including PMI. Water included in HOA.
        We can comfortably afford 20% down.

        Advice?

        https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4118-Oak-Island-Ln-Fallbrook-CA-92028/16567401_zpid/

  6. ‘I’m willing to dip my toes in, but I want to see how this plays out,’ she told CBC News. ‘Will it go back to pre-pandemic prices? Absolutely not’

    Click!

    1. “I’m willing to dip my toes in …”

      Bahahahahahaha … that’s pretty funny. We are talking about a financial commitment of hundred of thousands of dollars and she treats such a commitment as “dipping her toes in”.

      What a dummy.

  7. ‘There were times where I was still shocked by how far a buyer would go’

    And then she did it too.

    ‘The couple hadn’t originally wanted a duplex — they wanted a single-family home. But the circumstances meant making compromises. It’s not the market many young Kansas Citians thought they would find. ‘That’s one of the things that, growing up, you hear is so great about Kansas City, is the cost of living here,’ Wegley said. ‘People my age grew up hearing that, and then they go to buy a house, and they find out that it’s actually not going to be that great anymore’

    Not fer you Mask Boy Robbie. Welcome to a life time of doing without so a few powerful people could stuff their pockets with yer monies, and guberments could ring up a point or two GDP. A winnah! Enjoy the dinners listening to the people next door argue.

    1. “Mask Boy”

      I saw someone walking on the sidewalk alone in Denver yesterday wearing a black cloth mask, and my car thermometer said it was 105 degrees outside.

    2. Went to buy a car, but won their bid on a chassis cab truck. Will be building a plywood box on the back to make it work for their family…

  8. ‘The risk is greater when there’s a synchronized boom in house prices — as is the case’

    Oh, that!

    ‘Hogue believes price increases will also be in the double-digits in 2021, although a ‘much-desired soft landing’ has been pushed into 2022’

    There are no soft landings Bob.

  9. ‘Her property’s bank account is now empty, she said, because she had to continue making about $13,000 in payments for property taxes, insurance, water and sewer, but didn’t have the rental income coming in to cover them’

    ‘If I don’t pay my taxes, I risk the township coming after me, placing a lien on my home, and having that lien sold and losing the house,…This house has been in my family since the 1970s, and belonged to my grandparents until they sold it to us. My first child was born in that house and I envisioned passing it on to one of my kids. I’m really attached to that house’

    Better get some boxes Melissa. You got schlonged – by yer grandparents!

  10. “the Hobart couple have found a different solution: a tiny house. For Lucy and Jonty, the cost of their tiny house was around $120,000, including solar panels. Their solution isn’t an option for everyone — for one, they needed a friend willing to let them use their land for a much smaller rental cost than buying their own block.”
    ———-

    I wonder what restrictions Australia places on renting out your backyard to glampers. BTW, where does the poop go?

  11. First comes the set up …

    “Wegley and his wife placed offers on five homes. They got beat every time.”

    Now, after being properly set up, they are emotionally primed to be done in …

    “In early 2021, the couple’s real estate agent …”

    … who lives off of commissions …

    “… heard of a duplex that was back on the market after a previous deal had fallen through. ‘They pretty much just said, ‘If you match the offer, and you do it tonight, you’ll get it,’ Wegley said. “So we found out about it after work, saw it a couple hours later and had an offer within four hours of hearing about it, and it was accepted that night.’”

    FOMO doing it’s best work. Now these house-buying pukes are committed to doing THEIR best work for the next thirty years or so and have committed themselves to sending huge chunks of their paychecks each and every month over this long stretch of time to wonderful people such as myself.

    Pukes work, bankers reap.

    1. Millennials deserve everything they’ve got coming, and worse.

      Arguing about money with the spouse, divorce, foreclosure, bankruptcy, suicide.

      At least the pics of the used shack you borrowed to overpay for got alot of likes on Instagram.

      1. It’s hard to imagine returning to a world of consequences and responsibility. I think a more likely outcome is that all these FBs get bailed out or used as conduits to bail out the banks, and the sensible hard working folk end up on the hook for it all. To return to a world of consequences and responsibility would essentially end the financial system as we know it as there is little of it left besides the legerdemain and smoke and mirrors. Almost everything substantive has been replaced by hot vapor.

        1. I see the DoD wants to put a Pacific Fleet together specifically to counter China’s expansionist plans. I imagine they’ll put that expense on the fed’s charge card too.

  12. States to end federal unemployment benefits for 400,000 this weekend
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/16/states-to-end-federal-unemployment-benefits-for-400000-this-weekend.html

    (snip snip)

    Eight states — Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming — are opting out of federal unemployment benefit programs on Saturday.
    About 417,000 people will lose a $300 weekly supplement and other benefits, according to a CNBC analysis of Labor Department data.

    The state governors, all Republican, claim enhanced benefits are paying people to stay home, thereby creating labor shortages and making it difficult for businesses to hire. Critics say other factors like ongoing Covid health risks and childcare duties — not benefits — are sidelining workers.

    About 417,000 workers will lose benefits on Saturday when the eight states end their participation in federal programs, according to a CNBC analysis of Labor Department data.

  13. ‘Will it go back to pre-pandemic prices? Absolutely not…. But will we get to a calmer period where we can actually negotiate real prices and real conditions? That’s what I’m hoping for.’

    It’s when the masses are fully convinced that real estate (i.e. land) can only go up that a real estate bubble morphs into a speculative frenzy. I used to hear this all the time in California; now the California real estate mindset has gone pandemic.

    1. In 2005 I almost bought a house in San Diego. I had a real estate agent who was adamant that housing prices would continue to climb continuously for another ten years. He was constantly trying to impress me with all the money he was making by owning real estate. When I expressed any misgivings, he would scoff at me and I say “I guarantee you will make money on this house in five years.” Anyway, being a sober sort of fellow, I did all my own research and decided real estate prices were insane and didn’t buy. I can’t believe we are back in the same situation again…even worse than the last time.

      1. I can’t believe we are back in the same situation again…even worse than the last time.

        The long term trend for mortgage rates has been going down. What happens I wonder when they reach their lower bound? What is the lower bound?

        Add to that, the vast stimulus injected into the government and Wall Street. What happens when that flattens out?

        Eventually the stimulus hits its maximum limits, right? Return on cash is zero along with minimal mortgage rates and maximum stimulus?

        What I’m getting at is, eventually, with all the stimulus, low rates plus direct cash injections, will house prices finally stop going up at a 45 degree angle? What happens if housing stops providing high return despite the pedal to the medal on interest rates + stimulus?

        The stimulus provides the outsized ROI on housing. What happens when the stimulus reaches its max? Do prices stabilize?

        Houses used to be a sleepy asset class prior to the late 90s and all the financial innovation. It was all fraud and silliness and it crashed and the society bailed it all out and more. What, I wonder, are the limits of stimulus? Or can it keep going on year after year in perpetuity?

  14. While I agree that giving people more money than they’d earn if they were working is a disincentive to work, I think that some people have been so traumatized by the virus psyops that they might never be able to be able to (mentally) go back to work again.

    There are also a number of people who don’t want to go back to work because they don’t want the poison shot and they don’t want to be prevented from breathing all day long due to idiotic mask mandates.

    1. Include me in the absolutely hate wearing a mask group.

      the following ramble is the result of an afternoon drive;
      my teen son & I went out to the Galleria Mall in Roseville, CA. (notice how I’m saying WHERE THE HELL IT IS instead of “here”) to take a look at the current state of retail on the first day of mask parole.
      little foot traffic. the Galleria was pretty empty at 7pm, which I found out later might have been due to the 8pm closing! I did see Stacy flirting w/Ratner at the food court.

      the Fountains next door was remarkably empty except for the usual smattering of chattering peacocks of all stripes.
      we bought the least expensive food item(s) at Whole Foods; a 99c watermelon seltzer & $5.00 butter waffles.
      while wandering down the avenue results from covid lockdown were readily visible w/quite a few vacant stores.

      oh pshaw, not to worry as all I’m sure all the bored Roseville/Rocklin/Granite Bay housewives are eagerly leasing their next candle shop, craft store, pottery throwing fitness studios as we speak. or read.

      1. “Include me in the absolutely hate wearing a mask group.”

        Found myself in the horrible predicament of having to run 1/4 mile or so between gates to make a tight connection in the Phoenix airport while masked up.

        I may not have worn the mask properly as I huffed and puffed my way to the departing departing flight gate with luggage in tow…

        1. I always leave the mask under my nose and just breath through my nose. Sometimes when I get to the register at the store, the clerk (behind a six foot wall of plexiglass being suffocated by a mask 8 hours a day and consequently rapidly losing brain cells) will ask me to fix the mask. I oblige and then readjust it as soon as I get away from the register.

          1. My son’s ABA and speech/OT providers are requiring masks in their waiting rooms.

    2. CA renter,

      You make a good point. Why would anyone want to be subjected to lack of air for hours , or a jab they don’t want to risk a adverse reaction.
      Its just everything that people are being subjected to , that doesn’t follow any Science that would justify it. I know you live in CA., so the unvaccinated can’t take the masks off.
      I went to the store and only 15% weren’t wearing masks. So it stands to reason people who were vaccinated are still wearing the mask. Crazy world where they have created a fear that defies all logic with this disinformation campaign. Next will be the Delta variant strain hoax when the original Covid 19 has never been isolated under a microscope .
      They just make all this shit up.

      1. I know more than a few who got jabbed and admit that they don’t feel “protected”. So why get the clot shot if it won’t protect you?

        1. Those people will be wearing masks in Dumver for the rest of their lives.

          Clown World gonna clown.

          1. It’s so refreshing to reside in my little burg:

            No poop or syringes on the sidewalks.
            No tent cities.
            No vibrants.
            No one wears masks indoors.

          2. You’ll be refreshed soon enough.

            We are building more Weld County, right next door to you. It’s the “Inland Empire” of the Front Range. All the meth and bad credit and grew up in Fort Lupton and never left, it’s all right there, on your doorstep.

            All those people who can’t “qualify” to buy some POS shack in Thornton or Northglenn? Those are your new neighbors. It’s gonna be just like Aurora, you can’t escape the vibrancy…

      2. It’s always amusing to see how the media and the PTB react when the masses start enjoying life (parties, beach outings, etc.). Like clockwork, a new “variant” is announced within days of the good times. They are very obvious in their intent to cause massive psychological damage.

        We’re fortunate, even though we live in CA, because our neighborhood is apparently full of patriots. When the pandemic started, the sidewalks were absolutely FULL of neighbors who were out walking mask-free. The ones who wear masks on walks are the ones who are made to feel silly. It’s crazy to see them 50 feet or more from anyone else, right out in the sunshine, wearing an idiot mask.

        I’ve been to a few Republican/conservative meetings lately (after being a rather left-leaning Democrat for a couple of decades), and they haven’t been wearing masks, even when they are inside. It’s incredibly refreshing.

        1. Well then heads up: after the Indian variant, there’s another one in Vietnam. Vietnam is trying to contain it. But it’s still yet another new combination of two existing mutations. This virus doesn’t have much further to go before its evolutionary sputter.

      3. Forgot to mention:
        my Dad was in perfect health for being 90. He always gets flu shots. Two weeks after his 2nd covid jab, he had a stroke (blood clot). Coincidence? I think not.

      4. There is a passage in the novel The Painted Bird by Jerzy Kosinski in which some children try to free a rabbit from its cage. But after briefly venturing forth from the cage and experiencing freedom, it retreats back to the cage.

    3. I’ve known more than a few who never returned to 40-hr/wk after losing a job and enduring a long lay-off. It’s really easy to get caught up in toys, e.g., trucks, dirt bikes, hunting, etc., and before you know it you’re living check to check. A lay-off breaks that vicious cycle.

        1. Yep, it’s a gestalt shift.

          Businessmen and Economists worry about workers becoming long-term unemployed. With time to think about it, the worker can either take the blue pill and return to the rat-race, or he can take the red pill and realize that it costs him $80 to earn $100.

          1. Until the unemployment runs out. Not saying it will happen soon, and it’s possible it will be the pilot program for UBI.

        2. We had a house-proud neighbor with a garage full of toys (motorcycles, dirt bikes, etc.) across the street from us through 2008. He lost his job in the Great Recession, after which he and the toys went away.

  15. Oxnard, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% As Double Digit Price Declines Spread Like Wildfire

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/93035/market-trends/

    As a noted real estate economist stated, “Rich investors nor banks are interested in rapidly depreciating assets like houses. They simply want you to repay the grossly inflated amount you borrowed to buy a rapidly depreciating house.”

  17. “I want to let you the viewers know that Fox Corp has been muzzling me to keep certain information from you, the viewer,” said Fox 26 reporter Ivory Hecker. “And from what I’m gathering I’m not the only reporter being subjected to this.”

    Infowars.com
    June 15th 2021, 1:09 pm

    Fox 26 reporter Ivory Hecker has been suspended following her on-air announcement Monday that she intended to blow the whistle on the Fox network for “muzzling” her on a bombshell story she’s now sharing with Project Veritas.

    Hecker went on to explain that she’s obtained recordings that will reveal how Fox 26 regards its audience — and she’s handing them over to Project Veritas.

    “I am going to be releasing some recordings about what goes on behind the scenes at Fox because it applies to you the viewer,” she said.

    https://youtu.be/yDWbfsf8XPA

    And she’s released the audio of the call with her supervisor informing her she’s been suspended and can no longer enter the studio.

    https://youtu.be/lnOd4wulw4M

        1. I saw a post somewhere where one of the reddit-type traders had bought lumber futures and didn’t know that he would have to take physical possession of the lumber.

          Maybe they did to lumber what they were doing to Game Stop and now AMC?

          2. The Cloisters are (is?) beautiful, and the parks running along the west side are untouched forest. The river was a bit funky. We used to run around around The Cloisters as kids (it used to be free) until the guards chased us out.

            We also used to roam around Payson and Inwood Hill Park at all hours; people used to find arrowheads up there. Then the neighborhood really changed; you’d be walking through the woods and see chicken carcasses used in Santería practices strewn about. Good times.

          3. and see chicken carcasses used in Santería practices strewn about

            I watched a lot of Law & Order and Law & Order SVU back in the day. Most of their crimes scenes are filmed in NYC public parks. When I lived there with my Jack Russell Terrier who needed 3+ walks a day, I had the following rule: if I come across a dead body, I’m outta here. The worst I can recall are drug deals and giant rats that my ratter couldn’t handle.

          4. Law & Order
            I tried, but I could never get into those shows. I used to say if I want to see that I’ll look out my window (sometimes true). Same with “In the Heights”.

      3. Fed’s Powell uses lumber prices to explain inflation path | Fox Business
        https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-powell-uses-lumber-prices-to-explain-inflation-path

        (snippies)

        Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday used the recent plunge in lumber prices as an example of why the central bank thinks the recent surge in inflation will be transitory.

        “For example, the experience with lumber prices … the thought is that prices like that that have moved up really quickly, because of shortages and bottlenecks and the like, they should stop going up and in some point, in some cases, they should actually go down and we did see that in the case of lumber,” said Powell during his Q&A session following the Fed’s latest policy decision.

        Lumber prices have plunged by 40% through Tuesday since topping out at a record-high $1,670.50 thousand board feet on May 7. Prices were still up 150% from the start of 2020.

      2. Pay property taxes? Heck, I would go far out of my way to not drive through the place.

    2. This surprises no one who understands the primary motives of government. What surprises me is how Ill-prepared the rally organizers were to be taken by surprise by it.

    3. “Government agents may have helped organize the Jan. 6 Capitol riot”

      Ditto for the month after month of Soros’ riots around the country leading up to Zuckerberg’s pseudo-election. Amazing how the riots all stopped simultaneously when Saint Biden raised both arms!

  21. The Columbia Bugle 🇺🇸
    @ColumbiaBugle
    ·
    14h
    #Thread Must Watch Tucker Carlson Segment On Revolver News’s Piece About January 6th: Unindicted Co-Conspirators In January 6th Cases Raise Disturbing Questions Of Federal Foreknowledge

    https://t.co/WcXLTfuA5d

  22. the Fed keeping the game going … but the headline in the wsj is using the following headline (probably dictated by the syllable by some fed insider. I hate these games …

    “Fed Pencils in Earlier Interest-Rate Increase”
    “Most officials now expect to raise rates by the end of 2023, rather than hold them near zero”

    The Fed on Wednesday is likely to say after the meeting that it will maintain short-term interest rates near zero and keep buying at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-bond-purchases-june-2021-11623777582?mod=hp_lead_pos1

      1. Haha

        Bamboozle with BS, no? 23 will be 25 or 27 just like that.
        Never trust anything they say. NEVER

    3. Cue “buy now before interest rates rise” for whatever demand there’s left to pull forward.

    4. “Fed Pencils in Earlier Interest-Rate Increase”
      “Most officials now expect to raise rates by the end of 2023”

      Fookin’ clowns.

        2. There was a sardine bubble when the cannaries opened in California. An investor from the east coast was telling his friend to invest in sardines. The man was traveling to CA shortly thereafter and tried sardines for the first time. He reported back to his friend that he tried the sardines in California and they weren’t very good to which his investor friend replied: we don’t eat them, we trade them!
          Apropos anecdote I heard a long time ago.

          1. That’s really interesting!

            Of course in the case of sardines, the “inventory shortage” that accompanied the crash was due to a collapse in the sardine population.

            Check out John Steinbeck’s Cannery Row for a fictionalized account…

          2. The Western writer Zane Grey lived on Catalina Island for a while and wrote of the great schools of sardines that used to ply the Catalina Chanel. He said the the schools of sardines were numbered in the milions, were a half mile or so wide and drew in giant Blue Fin tuna which he loved to fish.

            Here’s some interesting info about the turn-of-the-century Southern California sardine industry …

            https://www.islapedia.com/index.php?title=Sardines

          3. Here is an interesting article and a snip …

            “I remember when I was about 10 years old, I used to fish Catalina in a row boat,” he said. “There would be schools of big tuna just 200 yards from the entrance of Avalon Harbor. Then they were called leaping tuna, not bluefin, because there were lots of flying fish in the area and the tuna could be seen jumping and catching them in the air.”

            The late Zane Grey, the noted author and outdoorsman, whose fishing exploits would become legendary, once said he watched a school of 100-pound tuna that took all day to swim past his boat. He felt there were much bigger tuna down deep, but the fishing tackle of the day, he said, was insufficient for the task.

            Stars Played Role in Local Waters : Avalon Tuna Club Members Were Fishing for More Than Compliments in Early Days – Los Angeles Times
            https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-12-14-sp-225-story.html

  26. 😁

    Cantor Fitzgerald exec and wife face lawsuit after refusing to leave Hamptons rental: report | Fox Business

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/cantor-fitzgerald-exec-wife-face-lawsuit-refusing-leave-hamptons-rental

    (snip snip)

    A top Cantor Fitzgerald exec and his wife are refusing to vacate their tony Hamptons rental – and they are living like a “Hoarders’’ episode while exploiting special COVID-19 rules barring eviction, according to a lawsuit and sources.

    Cantor’s “ultra-wealthy” chief administration officer Paul Pion and his wife Stephanie shelled out $10,000 a month for the past two years to rent the $5 million property in exclusive Water Mill, according to papers filed in Suffolk County Supreme Court.

    But the couple’s lease expired May 31, and the Long Island home’s owner found a new buyer set to close on the deal Tuesday – yet the Pions refuse to vacate the premises, the document says.

    “They aren’t leaving, and it looks like an episode of ‘Hoarders,’” said a source familiar with the situation, referring to the TV series about people who collect mounds of things.

    “I don’t understand. They have money,” the source said. “The owner filed a lawsuit but can’t evict them because of COVID. That makes sense if you don’t have money. But the Hamptons market is hot, and there are plenty of properties to rent or buy.”

    The well-heeled tenants are instead using “shifty means’’ to remain in the home, which has taken a beating from their “high attendance parties,’’ the papers say.

    “Defendants are conducting themselves in a bad faith, dishonest and manipulative way to exploit the COVID-19 pandemic and the mass confusion and gridlock in the lower courts in an effort to, among other things, block the impending sale of the premises,’’ the suit says.

    2. ‘“I don’t understand. They have money,” the source said. “The owner filed a lawsuit but can’t evict them because of COVID. That makes sense if you don’t have money. But the Hamptons market is hot, and there are plenty of properties to rent or buy.”

      The well-heeled tenants are instead using “shifty means’’ to remain in the home, which has taken a beating from their “high attendance parties,’’ the papers say.’

      I think I understand. They like to have parties, but don’t like the risk of property damage that comes with them…unless the landlord is willing to cover the cost of repairs.

      1. ‘“I don’t understand. They have money,” the source said. “The owner filed a lawsuit but can’t evict them because of COVID. That makes sense if you don’t have money. But the Hamptons market is hot, and there are plenty of properties to rent or buy.”

        Actually, it makes perfect sense. This is how they got their money – shafting anybody and everybody they could. Most wealthy people and companies do whatever makes the most sense for their bottom line, ethics be damned.

        Revisit the days of the Great Financial Crisis, when JP Morgan Chase decided to intentionally gave a San Francisco high rise back to the lender because the value had dropped, not because they couldn’t pay for it.

        You get the results that are financially incentivized.

        1. My husband’s La Jolla tenants with the district attorney wife filed for their third bankruptcy and left the property flee-ridden and filthy.

  27. Wall Street is curiously disgruntled by the Fed’s ever-upbeat economic outlook.

    June 16, 2021 11:15 AM PDTLast Updated 41 minutes ago
    Business
    Wall Street drops as Fed brings forward rate-rise forecast
    David French
    1 minute read
    A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., April 16, 2021.

    Summary
    Indexes down: Dow 0.64%, S&P 0.56%, Nasdaq 0.52%

    June 16 (Reuters) – All three main Wall Street indexes dropped on Wednesday in the minutes after the U.S. Federal Reserve published a statement following its latest policy meeting, in which it brought forward its projections for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes into 2023.

    The central bank cited an improved health situation. It also dropped a longstanding reference that the crisis was weighing on the economy.
    …

    1. The Financial Times
      Hawkish Federal Reserve forecasts jolt Treasury market
      Government bond yields jump and US equities slide after prediction of quicker rate rises
      Investors are looking for reassurance on tapering from the US central bank
      Eric Platt in New York 4 hours ago

      Treasury yields surged and US stocks slipped after policymakers at the Federal Reserve signalled that they expected to lift interest rates in 2023, a year earlier than previously thought.

      The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 0.09 per cent to 1.58 per cent following the decision from the US central bank and comments from Fed chair Jay Powell, who struck an upbeat tone about the US economic recovery while also acknowledging the risk of higher inflation.

      Among shorter-dated government bonds most sensitive to interest rate policy, there were even larger moves. The yield on the five-year note climbed 0.12 percentage points to 0.895 per cent — its largest one-day gain in almost four months — while the yield on the two-year note hit its highest level in a year at 0.2 per cent.
      …

    2. Does it seem curious how Wall Street traders freak out if the Fed merely hints about rate hikes happening at some unspecified point in the indefinite future?

  28. Starting July 1st, Denver shoppers will have to pay 10 cents per plastic bag.

    Ya gotta love how progs solve non-problems, while real problems, such as booming homelessness, are left to fester.

  29. Real-time RICO action right here.

    Business Insider: SpaceX threatened with arrests as local authorities in Texas warn it may have committed a crime by using private security guards to block public roads

    “The letter [KGRW reporter Rudy] Mireles obtained said that when members of [Cameron County District Attorney Luis] Saenz’s staff went to investigate a complaint that SpaceX had denied public access to two county roads near State Highway 4, a SpaceX security guard ‘immediately approached, stopped, and detained’ them and ordered them to return to the highway.”

    “Saenz also wrote that neither the security guard, who was wearing a bulletproof vest, nor SpaceX’s head of security for the facility appeared to have proper security licenses and asked SpaceX to confirm whether its security staff was properly licensed and whether its security guards were armed.”

    For context: https://tslaq.org/stunning-highly-detailed-interview-with-tesla-whistleblower-karl-hansen/

    1. There’s a putrid, Musky odor emanating around the world these days, which needs to be dealt with.

  30. Must see images 🙂

    Why Are Planes Carrying Unidentified Children Landing in Tennessee In the Middle Of the Night?

    June 8, 2021

    On May 14, a plane carrying children landed at the Wilson Air Center in Chattanooga, Tennessee. It was 1:30 am. In the following days, TV station WRCB spotted three other planes carrying between 30 – 50 children at the airport. Each time, the children came out of the planes wearing matching bags and entered buses that were headed to various destinations.

    Here are some images captured by WRCB.

    Two of the four buses in the video are owned by Coast to Coast Tours of East Point, Georgia.

    According to a Coast-to-Coast employee, the buses were dispatched to Chattanooga as part of a contract with the United States Department of Defense. The employee says this was the first time the company had been asked to pick up migrant children in Chattanooga. In the past, the company’s drivers have traveled to Mobile, Alabama, and Atlanta to transport children, according to the employee.

    She confirmed the two buses seen in the video left Chattanooga for Miami, Florida, and Dallas, Texas. She added that the children are not allowed to get off the bus during the trip and three or four chaperones, who are not employed by the bus company are onboard at all times. She says the bus company requires chaperones when transporting “children under the age of 18.”

    Channel 3 reached out to Knoxville Tours, Little Rock Coaches, and Malone Bussing Services, all of which Channel 3 confirmed assisted over the weekend, but we have not heard back. Malone Bussing Services is located in Cleveland, Tennessee.
    – WRCB, FIRST ON 3: Late-night flights carrying migrant children arrive in Chattanooga

    Other than this employee, absolutely nobody involved in this operation was willing to provide any kind of information.

    https://vigilantcitizen.com/latestnews/mysterious-plane-carrying-unidentified-children-spotted-in-tn-and-nobody-is-answering-questions/

    2. The known fact that Joe Biden did not win enough electoral college votes to become president and that the 2020 election was stolen?

      The boxes and suitcases of ballots mysteriously appearing in the middle of the night?

      Yeah, that was you, globalists. Unelected Deep State termites, as nasty as cockroaches, but much more persistent…

  32. I’m trying to run some numbers, but am having a difficult time finding data. I would like to know the total # of homes with a mortgage. To compare to the # of homes in forebearance.
    Also, it seems the mortgage availability index isn’t reliable for current mortgages. The risk shown in the charts indicates there was a lot of risk back in 2007, however I didn’t see this in the charts published back in 2007.

        1. Housing as passive income. The fun begins when owners start offloading those units.

          1. Speaking of: my husband has two owners selling and two others thinking about it.

  33. $240k in not affordable? Lol. I would give my right arm and a few fingers from my left arm for a house that cheap. $240k doesn’t buy a garage around here.

  34. Just on Tucker: clot shot strikes woman’s 17yo athletic son (two brain, one neck) and in-good-health husband (100 lung). Husband had unknowingly gotten and recovered from COVID.

  35. So that woman had a house in the family since the 1970s. Why is she paying a mortgage? The house back then cold not have cost more than what $75k? $100k maybe?

    The reason she has a mortgage is because it is now worth 10x that and she took out equity to buy Escalades and trips to Hawaii. And I’m supposed to feel sorry for her.

    Yeah no.

    1. “… she took out equity to buy Escalades and trips to Hawaii.”

      And was charged some mighty hefty bank fees for doing so.

      I’m in love. ♥️

    2. Sounds like her grandparents bought it in the 70s but then made her buy it from them, so she does have a mortgage.

    1. I saw hosting a show in Palisades Park, don’t remember when. Also at a charity event he was hosting in the city. AFAIK, he and his rug are still around.

  38. “Soft Landing” this is a term we heard back in 2007, and now its back in Vogue! We know how the last soft landing went!

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