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We’ve Seen This Movie Before

A weekend topic starting with Better Dwelling. “Canada’s central bank has had researchers quietly studying bubbles overseas. The study, Bubbles, Crashes and Information Contagion In Large-Group Asset Market Experiments, appeared in the June issue of Experimental Economics. The researchers found people coordinate with others naturally, adopting similar expectations. It didn’t matter if they saw the overvaluation news or not. Most would coordinate their expectations of future price growth with those that did.”

“When prices climbed due to higher expectations amongst the cohort, so did expectations. This occurred even with knowledge of an overvaluation. The reality was less interesting than doing what their friends were doing. Real chimps with pants stuff. In some groups lowered expectations weren’t enough to stop extreme bubbles. In these cohorts, the market reached the absolute upper bound of overvaluation. Due to coordination, they were willing to risk the maximum they could. Risk was less important than doing what others did.”

“For a bubble to pop, participants need to have a varied opinion on where the valuation should be. Either information changes enough opinions and there’s no consensus, or prices hit an extreme. The latter, aka a hard limit, is when prices can no longer rise. It has the worst outcome possible, with maximum losses. What a fun topic for the Bank of Canada to explore now for no particular reason.”

The Nashville Scene in Tennessee. “The Nashville-area real estate market started to slow down a bit at the end of June. Single-family homes in the $200,000 to $300,000 range were starting to stay on the market as long as three, sometimes four days. OK, that’s hyperbole, but not much. Nashville’s loony housing market isn’t unique. It’s happening all over the country. The United States is now in the bizarre situation of having more real estate agents than homes to sell.”

“In Davidson County in June, there were 311 homes sold that were originally listed between $200,000 and $300,000. Of those, 235 — about three-quarters — sold after a week or less on the market. On average, those 235 homes sold for $8,819 more than the asking price. Only 24 of those homes sold at or below their listing price. The waters calm with time. The 25 percent of those mid-priced homes that lasted longer than a week in June? They sold for, on average, $4,700 less than list.”

“Owners of homes that have languished on the market for a few months — though such a waiting period was once the norm — are more likely to take a lowball offer. The good news, agents tell the Scene, is that things seemingly began to calm down in the last few weeks of June after the febrile spring, setting Nashville up to have a merely rapid market rather than one set at ludicrous speed.”

From Bloomberg. “The outlook for U.S. homebuilder stocks is darkening as investors see slowing home sales and skyrocketing prices as a sign the housing boom may fade. An S&P index of 16 builders had surged nearly 250% between March 2020 and early May. But the index has slumped about 12% since then, with industry bellwethers DR Horton Inc. and PulteGroup Inc. among the 11 companies that saw double-digit declines. The retreat came as multiple metrics showed that the real estate market is cooling off.”

“BTIG analyst Carl Reichardt said he is telling homebuilders not to be overaggressive. He is ‘nervous’ that builders may end up in a negative feedback loop where builders have to cut prices to retain buyers that are discouraged by ferocious bidding wars. ‘We have to make sure the builders don’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg,’ Reichardt.”

From Builder Online. “Zonda has tracked the new residential development pipeline and lot supply in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex since the 1980s. At the end of March, there were 59,000 vacant developed lots in the market. There are an additional 50,000 future lots under construction that should be delivered over the next 12 months, the most in over a decade. However, with starts anticipated to push past 50,000 homes in the next 12 months the lot pipeline is barely enough to keep up.”

“The surge in demand and record low lot supply have sent home builders and developers on a buying spree, creating a land seller’s dream. Land and lot prices are hitting record highs and pushing buyers further out in pursuit of affordability. There is hardly a day that goes by without an announcement of a new upcoming residential development. Zonda added more future lots to its database during the past 90 days than all of 2020. Included in these futures are 12 new master-planned communities with at least 1,000 lots planned.”

From News Hub New Zealand. “Auckland Central MP Chlöe Swarbrick told The AM Show she and Davidson will reveal a pathway to decommodifying the housing market at Friday night’s meeting. ‘For the past 30 years – my entire life – the housing market has become effectively a runaway gravy train that now 1.4 million New Zealanders cannot afford a ticket on. You’ve got a third of the population that rent and you have also got a third of the housing stock owned by people who own between four and more than 20 homes in this country.'”

“Swarbrick says the only way to fix things is by admitting things have to change. ‘I think one of the big challenges we have had, at least in my time in politics, is that no politician or no political party bar the Greens has been willing to say that house prices have to drop,’ she said.”

“Beyond helping Kiwis into houses, Swarbrick says a drop in prices is needed to protect the country from a property bubble that could burst and wreak havoc on our economy. ‘Local economists and even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are warning there’s a bit of a speculative bubble forming potentially here. It is far more dangerous for us to end up in a situation where we have financial stability completely threatened because of the amount of speculation we’ve enabled.'”

From Channel News Asia. “Professor Sing Tien Foo, director of the Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies (IREUS) at the National University of Singapore, pointed that one of the issues that may affect the affordability of such flats for buyers is that of Cash Over Valuation (COV) prices, noting these would increase given the current resale flat boom. COV refers to the difference between the transacted price and the unit’s official valuation by the HDB, which buyers must pay fully in cash.”

“Property analyst Ong Kah Seng said the resurfacing of high COVs could point to stiff competition between buyers trying to outbid one another. This could result in buyers’ remorse should they realise they ‘overbid’ for a flat, he said, urging buyers to do their due diligence and carefully consider buying a resale flat.”

“‘Of note, there is also a bumper crop of flats exiting the five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), where some home owners may sell their flat and look for new homes in the resale market or the private residential market,’ said Mr Ismail Gafoor, CEO of real estate firm Propnex. ‘Over 25,500 flats are estimated to reach their MOP this year, making them eligible to be sold in the resale market.'”

“Mr Ismail suggested that a fall in the resale prices of HDB flats may not necessarily be a positive thing. ‘With the majority of Singaporeans owning and living in HDB flats, many households have a huge chunk of their savings tied up in their flat; a sharp decline or persistent fall in HDB resale values could negatively impact household wealth and retirement adequacy,’ he said.”

The Globe and Mail. “The Canadian technology sector has never had a year like 2021 – and it’s only half done. Companies have raised nearly as much venture capital as the record $7.5-billion for all of 2019, and are on pace to surpass 2000′s inflation-adjusted record ($6.4-billion, equal to $9.4-billion in 2021 dollars) at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Twenty-two companies have announced financings of $100-million or more – 10 more than the 2019 record. Ten have hit the industry’s ‘unicorn’ status – private tech companies that achieve US$1-billion valuations – backed by domestic venture capitalists and foreign investors.”

“It’s a similar story on public stock markets. By May 31, technology companies had raised $8.4-billion on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSX Venture Exchange – more than 2020′s full-year record of $8.1-billion. Next week’s debut of digital wellness platform provider LifeSpeak Inc. will mark the 14th tech IPO on the senior exchange in 12 months, more than the previous decade combined. ‘The dynamic [18 months ago] was, ‘Why go public,’ said Dani Lipkin, the TSX’s director of global business development. ‘We don’t hear that any more.’”

“It’s been enough to wipe away bad memories of a decade ago. So, is this a new era in which domestic technology stars will transform the Canadian economy? Or should cautious Canadians think ‘we’ve seen this movie before’ and prepare for trouble? Many of Canada’s emerging tech successes don’t look like mania enablers. They’ve applied technological advances to more day-to-day tasks – such as helping companies to operate more effectively or enabling online commerce.”

“But there are reasons for concern. Retail investors have flooded the market, chasing cryptocurrencies and pumping up meme stock. Throngs of hot money-seeking punters also fuelled the dot-com boom – andthat ended poorly. Another cause for concern is that financings are coming together quicker than ever, driven by aggressive U.S. private capital firms. They have showered startups with offers, frequently unsolicited, often at rich valuations and with fast closing times, based less on due diligence than a read of broader trends, momentum and market intelligence.”

“If momentum abates and markets pull back, companies that raised large sums should survive short-term drops in their valuation, but ‘the bigger concern will be on the smaller fundraises done at FOMO-induced valuations,’ said Sid Paquette, head of Royal Bank of Canada’s RBCx innovation banking division. That could leave some companies ‘locked out,’ overpriced and forced to raise at lower valuations, he said.”

“Retail and venture investors are responsible for the overall surge in valuations. But rapid digital adoption during the pandemic has accelerated growth for many online companies, so some upward valuation adjustments make sense, argues Toronto-based Inovia Capital partner Karamdeep Nijjar. ‘Valuations are high now compared to historical norms, but so are growth rates and exit values,’ he said.”

“But those rates may decelerate as the pandemic eases. If so, valuations could plummet. Ian Carew, managing director with Toronto’s Northleaf Capital Partners, worries there will be ‘some issues’ when the business cycle turns. ‘The trick is recognizing when the switch flips and pulling back appropriately.’ But, like other Canadian innovation funders, he believes Canada’s tech sector will keep thriving. ‘Every part of the ecosystem is a lot stronger’ than a decade ago, he said.”

“Yet one of the major lessons from the past year is that early investor demand does not always translate into long-lasting market strength. In December, telemedicine startup MindBeacon Holdings Inc. set out to raise $50-million and ultimately received about $400-million worth of orders. So the company decided to price its shares at $8 each, at the top end of its marketing range. Management also boosted the deal size to $65-million. The shares jumped 64 per cent over their first two months of trading.”

“But it’s been nothing but misery for MindBeacon since early February, when many growth stocks started to sell off in Canada and the U.S. The company’s shares now trade for about $4.60 each – about half their IPO price.”

This Post Has 161 Comments
  1. ‘builders may end up in a negative feedback loop where builders have to cut prices to retain buyers that are discouraged by ferocious bidding wars. ‘We have to make sure the builders don’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg’

    That egg he’s talking about is you, with interest for 30 years.

    ‘At the end of March, there were 59,000 vacant developed lots in the market. There are an additional 50,000 future lots under construction that should be delivered over the next 12 months, the most in over a decade. However, with starts anticipated to push past 50,000 homes in the next 12 months the lot pipeline is barely enough to keep up’

    ‘Land and lot prices are hitting record highs and pushing buyers further out in pursuit of affordability. There is hardly a day that goes by without an announcement of a new upcoming residential development. Zonda added more future lots to its database during the past 90 days than all of 2020’

    Higher prices should lower sales, unless something else is going on. How many “economists” mention this, which is truly econ 101. The first day of econ 101.

    ‘added more future lots to its database during the past 90 days than all of 2020′

    I’ma runnin’ – with scissors! You know what’s just past the 50,000 lots? Another 50,000, and another. Etc.

    1. “That egg he’s talking about is you, with interest for 30 years.”

      😁 … and hefty fees, don’t forget those.

  2. ‘one of the big challenges we have had, at least in my time in politics, is that no politician or no political party bar the Greens has been willing to say that house prices have to drop’

    I’ll disagree a bit. We constantly hear “we need more supply so shack prices fall”. It’s part of the big con, but we do hear it.

    ‘Local economists and even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are warning there’s a bit of a speculative bubble forming potentially here. It is far more dangerous for us to end up in a situation where we have financial stability completely threatened because of the amount of speculation we’ve enabled’

    Is something “bad” going to happen? It’s already happened. The loans have been made at stupid prices.

    1. “Is something ‘bad’ going to happen? It’s already happened. The loans have been made at stupid prices.”

      These stupid prices have been interpreted as increases in wealth, but not wealth for the group of stupid pukes who paid the stupid prices but wealth for their neighbors.

      Imagine that! Strangers who go crazy spending money they do not have can magically and miraculously create enormous quantities of wealth those who people who happen to live nearby. The crazier the spending the greater amount of the miracle wealth that is created. This miracle wealth can then be borrowed against and thus it, too, can be spent.

      This is today’s financialized economy. Workers for money are pitted against borrowers of money and the workers are destined to lose out – lose out not because they don’t have more sense than the borrowers but because they do.

      1. the workers are destined to lose out

        Not necessarily so. Enlistment in the deranged Donkey army is entirely voluntary.

    2. All the altruistic central planners that squawk about the need for affordable housing sang in deafening unison when prices collapsed in the last bubble…WE HAVE TO STOP THIS BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY! The greatest opportunity for affordable housing in our lifetimes was thwarted by the central planners who promise affordable housing in front of every camera and microphone.

      1. Right. Because they’re liars talking out of both sides of their mouths. Obama went on a tour talking about how he had to get house prices back up. Do you think he stopped by any African American communities to tell them he was working feverishly to make house prices unaffordable for them?

    3. Is something “bad” going to happen? It’s already happened. The loans have been made at stupid prices.

      Cleaning vs leaning“. It’s quite amusing the more I think about it, especially that there is no effort to lean.

      Yet Powell said in a press conference: “So, you know, it is—it’s not an unalloyed good to have prices going up this much, and we’re watching it very carefully. I don’t see the kind of financial stability current concerns, though, that really do reside around the housing sector. So many of the financial crackups in all countries, all western countries, that have happened in the last 30 years have been around housing. We don’t—we really don’t see that here. We don’t see bad loans and unsustainable prices and that kind of thing. ”

      No one coulda seen it coming I guess. Fama got the Nobel prize for saying bubbles don’t exist, and the co-winner that year was Shiller who specializes in bubbles.

      1. It’s my belief that the FED is gorging on MBS right now because they want a massive amount of those on their balance sheet should the housing market go tits up. They want to control inventory.

  3. ‘It’s been enough to wipe away bad memories of a decade ago. So, is this a new era in which domestic technology stars will transform the Canadian economy?’

    We read recently that the US central bank created more money since the CCP virus than existed in the 1990’s. It will create permanently higher inflation (and wages), go poof, or a combination of the two. That’s a lot of money to go poof, which brings with it pain. Is something “bad” going to happen? It already did. They created the money.

    1. All the QE, “lending facilities”(🤣) and the resultant recklessness and fraud going back over a decade, there is no avoiding the boo hooing and braying.

      Hope you didn’t pay too much… but it’s too late for that now.

    2. How much “wage inflation” can you have with millions of illegals flooding an open border and with a massive influx of H1-B visa holders?

      1. A lot, apparently. Practically every block around here has signs begging people to work for $20, $30 per hour or more.

        1. ‘I had to buy a lawnmower’: Rich Hampton residents and tourists struggle amid labour shortage

          Rich Hampton residents and tourists are struggling with mowing their own lawns and foregoing salon appointments as the East End of Long Island is experiencing a labour shortage…“I had to buy a lawnmower and cut my own lawn. I wanted flowers planted behind the pool. The landscaper didn’t show up. I had to do it myself,” one East Hampton resident said. “My brother just showed me how to use the thing that trims the weeds. Yesterday, I finally did that. I had to take my $800 sneakers off first, but it was actually satisfying.”

          Oh the humanity

        2. begging people to work for $20, $30 per hour or more Pikers! Pay me $10,000 and I’ll be glad to make a special trip to the Hamptons to mow a small lawn there. Room and board along with maid service must be provided on-site.

          1. “long trek out to The Hamptons .. ”

            no kidding! in my younger days as a 15yr old yout in Sarasota, FL, I answered an newspaper ad seeking lawn care help, being the rebellious teen & determined to prove my azzhole father wrong about “no one will hire a 15yr old”.
            lemme tell ya, taking the 30min drive out & mowing those LongBoat Key thick, damp townhome/condo/duplex lawns, which stretch on for seemingly endless football-field-size lengths quickly skools you into the working world.
            I did a good job, 100% effort, no slacking but after a month of that low pay, sling blade, chain gang shyte I was happy as hell to finish high school.

            (looking back in hindsight over the years I realized the lawn care owner was purposefully giving me the hardest jobs, as the new guy AND to encourage me to get back to school!
            I owe him a debt of gratitude which can never be repaid.)

  4. “When prices climbed due to higher expectations amongst the cohort, so did expectations. This occurred even with knowledge of an overvaluation. The reality was less interesting than doing what their friends were doing. Real chimps with pants stuff. In some groups lowered expectations weren’t enough to stop extreme bubbles. In these cohorts, the market reached the absolute upper bound of overvaluation. Due to coordination, they were willing to risk the maximum they could. Risk was less important than doing what others did.”

    What else is needed to power the price rise into this realm of overvaluation? Higher expectations are not enough, something else is required. And that something else is money, or, more accurately, ACCESS to money.

    And guess who it is that controls this access to money? 😁

    Ah, the power: I like it, I love it, I want more of it.

  5. Spokane, WA Housing Prices Crater 23% As Rural Lot And Land Prices Plummet

    https://www.movoto.com/wa/99202/market-trends/

    As a national land broker explained, “There is a globe full of land were fully 95% of it goes undeveloped. Land is essentially worthless dirt. If you paid more than $500 an acre, you got ripped off.”

  6. Interesting article…

    Wonder how much real estate 20 million illegals occupy?

    Boomers are only making the 2021 housing crisis worse

    “It’s a sign that boomers are “aging in place,” Kolomatsky writes, a growing concept that the pandemic has exacerbated. It’s partly because some boomers are cautious of nursing homes in a Covid era, he added”

    “Boomers aren’t helping matters. The longer they hold onto their houses, the harder it will be for other generations to build wealth through real estate.”

    https://www.businessinsider.com/boomers-worsening-americas-pandemic-housing-crisis-real-estate-millennials-2021-7?amp

    1. “Boomers aren’t helping matters. The longer they hold onto their houses, the harder it will be for other generations to build wealth through real estate.”

      “Build wealth through real estate”! Bahahahaha … it sounds much neater than “Build wealth through ridiculous price increases generated by numerous dumbed-down fools who have somehow been allowed access to huge gobs of money”. But (alas) it is not quite as accurate.

    2. “Boomers aren’t helping matters. The longer they hold onto their houses, the harder it will be for other generations to build wealth through real estate.”

      Why would anyone sell a magic money machine that reliably (in the owner’s belief) produces high rates of investment gains in perpetuity?

      Would make no sense…

      1. “Why would anyone sell a magic money machine that reliably (in the owner’s belief) produces high rates of investment gains in perpetuity?”

        A magic money machine that acquires its magic by the herd-like actions of numerous strangers.

        1. Do you count the central bankers who pump money into mortgage bonds among the strange herd members? Or would they enter your story as shepherds?

          1. WSJ News Exclusive
            Central Banks
            Fed’s Harker Supports Start of Bond Buying Pullback Later This Year
            ‘I am in the camp of starting the tapering process,’ Philadelphia Fed president says
            What the Inflation of the 1970s Can Teach Us Today
            Recently, the U.S. inflation rate reached a 13-year high, triggering a debate about whether the country is entering an inflationary period similar to the 1970s. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath looks at what consumers can expect next.
            By Michael S. Derby
            July 1, 2021 2:00 pm ET

            Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said Thursday that while an interest rate rise lies some ways in the distance, he is ready for the U.S. central bank to begin slowing the pace of its asset buying stimulus this year.

            “I am in the camp of starting the tapering process,” Mr. Harker said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, referring to slowing the pace of the Fed’s $120 billion a month in bond purchases, which aim to augment the central bank’s near zero short-term interest rate target range.

            Asked if the process should start this year, Mr. Harker said “yes,” adding that, “I would like to see tapering begin. I’d like to see it happen sooner rather than later. I’d like to see it being a slow, methodical process.”

            Mr. Harker, who doesn’t currently have a vote on the rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, weighed in amid an active debate among central bank officials about paring support for the economy, which is roaring back to life from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

            Officials have been focused on what to do with their $80 billion a month in Treasury bond buying and $40 billion a month in mortgage bond purchases.

          2. how interesting is it that non-voting members happen to have concerns and want to tamper down the buybacks etc. But the voting members seem to approve this stuff

            Almost like they are providing cover …

      1. Prop 13 is perhaps the most disgusting example of ageism I’ve ever seen in my life. An older couple gets to pay 1970s tax rates, and a young couple gets annihilated by the local assessor, funding the fire dept, schools, etc.

    3. “It’s a sign that boomers are “aging in place,” There is no “aging in place” except for the extremely wealthy who can pay out of pocket for around the clock care, supervision and assistance (which costs more than the most expensive assisted living / memory care established. The less (or would-be) wealthy who try to fake “aging in place” very often find their spouses dying on them, or having their younger caretaker/relative do the same or become even more disabled than the “aging” person is. My 96 year old next door neighbor had to move back into her home last month when her oldest daughter had a massive and disabling stroke which put her in a nursing home, while at the same time her 75 year old son had to move back with her after his wife died of COVID a few months earlier. He has a pension but without his wife’s pension he can no longer afford to live alone. His younger brother lives on the east coast, is quite wealthy, showed up a few weeks ago to help, had a big argument with his older brother, and returned to the coast without pitching in. I’ve been through a milder episode of the same with a relative, and have been splitting duties with her daughter. That relative’s own resources for her assisted living facility will dry up in a couple of months…

      1. their younger caretaker/relative do the same or become even more disabled than the “aging” person is.
        Been there, done some of that. Now I’m sick, lucky if I will live to anywhere near the ages of the family members I’ve taken care of. I don’t regret it, could not have done anything else. But it sucks.

      2. This afternoon the truck with Maine license plates is back, parked in front of my elderly next door neighbor’s house. So maybe that family is pulling together a bit.

    4. Wonder how much real estate 20 million illegals occupy?

      I think that works out to about 17 houses, judging by the number of parked cars I see in some of the local neighborhoods.

      1. LOL, too true. Add to that one of the reasons we moved out of the last rental was that it seemed every new resident was setting up a car repair business in the three car garages the homes all had. We’d watch the guy across the street pour used oil down the sewer drain regularly. When he put up a wooden frame with sheets of plastic on the driveway outside the garage, someone called the city right away so it didn’t last long. To avoid vibrancy, even if you don’t have the means, overextending yourself financially is a must.

      2. “Wonder how much real estate 20 million illegals occupy?”

        There’s well over 1-million illegals in Los Angeles county alone.

    5. I for one would never want to live in a senior housing, too many old people. Like my GF brother an analogue guy in a digital word, give him vintage electronics and he can fix it, tubes hand wired chassis….amazing but to email or print a photo from his phone it befuddles him.

      1. I for one would never want to live You may continue to want what you want, but you will most likely get what you get.

        1. Some accept elderly care in anticipation of future weakness, as a sort of security. I will continue to live a broadly as I am able until it is simply beyond my grasp.

          1. IMO, there’s a threshold that’s reached where one’s quality of life deteriorates to such a level that checking out is not only reasonable, it’s compassionate. Our current law in Calif. says one can drink a prescribed 4oz. drink wherein one falls asleep, but doesn’t wake up. Not a bad way to go. However, the caveat is one has to be terminal. i.e., die within months. That being said, IMO, the aforementioned “threshold of deteriorated quality of life” used in determination of termination, should be a personal decision…not a B.S. pseudo-moral driven law that forces one to needlessly suffer. If we, as a society allow choice in termination of pregnancy, we should also tolerate one’s choice in leaving this world with dignity.

        2. you will most likely get what you get
          🤣 Just saw your comment. It’s funny because it’s true.

        3. “You may continue to want what you want, but you will most likely get what you get.”

          You can easily avoid cirrhosis of the liver, lung cancer, etc., by exercising some restraint. Otherwise it’s the banquet of consequences.

          1. Big believer in vitamins and proper nutrition, but when I owned a pub, I saw customers who would drink like a fish and smoke like a chimney. Most of them died at a ripe old age. Genes and luck, probably never ate a vegetable or a fruit in their lives unless it was a potato or an olive.

    1. The Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      Bond contrarians vindicated by US Treasury yield plunge
      Guggenheim Partners and Nuveen among managers who held out against consensus
      Michael Mackenzie and Colby Smith in New York 4 hours ago

      Bond fund managers who bucked a market consensus earlier this year that long-term interest rates and inflation were headed sharply higher have been rewarded with outsize performance during the market switchback of the past few weeks.

      Star managers including Scott Minerd at Guggenheim Partners and Stephen Liberatore of Nuveen are riding high in industry league tables, after US Treasury yields plunged as low as 1.25 per cent this week, compared with a peak above 1.7 per cent at the end of March.

      Markets have come round to the view that the global economic rebound will soon decelerate, and the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to lose control of inflation.

      “Ultimately the market ran too far in front of the recovery,” said Liberatore, lead portfolio manager for Nuveen’s fixed income strategies, whose core impact bond managed accounts have outperformed all their peers since the end of March.

      “We are more likely to go below 1 per cent [on the 10-year] than we are to be substantially above 1.5 or 1.75 per cent,” he said.

  7. Foreclosure.com sent me a link to some of my old stomping grounds and I was able to track it down:

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7409-N-Wild-Horse-Dr-Williams-AZ-86046/198412777_zpid/

    $260,000 2 bd 2 ba1,526 sqft
    7409 N Wild Horse Dr, Williams, AZ 86046

    This isn’t in Williams, it’s on the highway to the Grand Canyon from Williams. These addresses are usually associated with the nearest post office. I worked on many of these rural trailers/manufactured shacks.

    ‘This 2-bed, 2-ba, 1526-sq ft Cavco Durango manufactured home was built in 1998 and is located on 8.25-acres in Junipine Estates. The heavily treed property is on a hillside and has awesome endless views that extend to the Grand Canyon and has great sunset views. The home could be a three-bed home if a closet is added to a den. The property is serviced by county-maintained roads. The home is a fixer upper and is not functional. The home will most likely not finance in its present condition. It is being sold as-is. The grounds are cluttered and is being sold as-is, anything there conveys.’

    Good old Junipine Estates. Yeah it’s on a hillside alright, as there is hardly a flat spot out there. The price is probably what was owed after the foreclosure. Sounds like they trashed it. And they took the master tub! Probably made a swirly and they had grown fond of it. That’s 260 grand gone poof.

    1. “The home will most likely not finance in its present condition.”

      Sounds like the Zestimate on that one may be a wee bit to the high side.

      You can look forward to a lot more of those overZestimates once the next housing market crater gains momentum.

    2. Like a newborn baby to a hopeful young couple, at one time that mod house was hope and a future.

  8. What a fun topic for the Bank of Canada to explore now for no particular reason.”

    Maybe they should be studying the load-bearing capacity of lampposts outside central banks.

    1. load-bearing capacity of lampposts plenty capacity in rising ocean waters, combined with a few bags of redi-mix

  9. “The latter, aka a hard limit, is when prices can no longer rise. It has the worst outcome possible, with maximum losses.”

    Read the handwriting on the wall and weep.

    “What a fun topic for the Bank of Canada to explore now for no particular reason.”

    It always pays to cover your arse before the shtf moment.

  10. There are so many reasons why not to ever invest in beachfront airboxes. What makes people decide to make this terrible investment error?

    The Financial Times
    US society
    Deadly collapse of Miami building shines light on Florida’s condo politics
    Debates over how to pay for essential repairs often lead to infighting among residents
    Claire Bushey in Miami yesterday

    The line of condominiums and hotels along Collins Avenue that offer residents sweeping views of the Atlantic Ocean is now broken up by a haunting pile of rubble.

    A fortnight after Champlain Towers South, a 12-storey apartment building with 136 units, collapsed in the Miami suburb of Surfside, officials in south Florida this week called off the search for survivors.

    Emergency crews switched their focus to recovering the bodies of victims of the collapse, which, as of Friday evening, had killed at least 79 people with a further 61 “potentially unaccounted for”.

  11. Biden rolls out $2.3 trillion Home-Be-Mine plan: ‘It’s bold, yes, and we can get it done’

    Last Updated: July 9,, 2021 at 10:10 a.m. ET

    By Victor Ratnest

    President Joe Biden made his sales pitch on Wednesday for plan with a price tag of $2.3 trillion, a sweeping measure that includes $621 billion for down payments, $111 billion for people of color who are behind on rent payments through no fault of their own and $100 billion for the Hunter Biden art fund.

    “It’s a once-in-a-generation investment in America,” Biden said in a speech in Pittsburgh about his “American Affordable Housing Plan.” He returned to the city in the state of Pennsylvania after having stolen his first presidential election there among other cities in swing states where vote counting was halted on election night.

    “It’s big, yes. It’s bold, yes, and we can get it done,” he added.

    https://www.fishmarketwatch.com/story/biden-to-make-pitch-for-2-3-trillion-home-be-mine-plan-in-pittsburgh-speech-on-wednesday-afternoon-11617208392

    1. for people of color

      Unconstitutional. Similar Biden administration plans are already being struck down in the courts.

        1. 🙂

          No, it’s an article from fishmarketwatch.

          Actually I carved up a MarketWatch article, changed Victor’s last name to protect the innocent and came up with the name Home-Be-Mine from this old Isuzu commercial.

          1994 Isuzu Rodeo “Gut-Be-Gone Birthday” TV Commercial
          https://youtu.be/H9LHxt2jprk

      1. “This must be an Onion-style satire.”

        This too, but it is not …

        “2. 1961: Piero Manzoni, Artist’s Shit
        Nearly half a century later, in 1961, Piero Manzoni, in his own agenda to ridicule the fraught nature of art objects, decides to fill 90 tin cans with 30 grams of his own excrement. Tin number 51 of 90 sold for £103,250 ($161,173) at Christie’s London in 2012.

        “As Manzoni himself once said, ‘[I]f collectors want something intimate, really personal to the artist, there’s the artist’s own shit.’ Manzoni died in 1963, and wasn’t able to see how expensive his ‘intimate’ objects became.

        Survey a Century of Human Waste in Art – artnet News
        https://news.artnet.com/art-world/human-waste-art-duchamp-cattelan-484562

        People are stupid.

    2. “…$111 billion for people of color WHITE PEOPLE who are behind on rent payments through no fault of their own…”

      How would that sound? Racist? Naaahhhhh….

  12. Somehow I’m very good at predicting the bottom of things (for example buying my last house in Oct 2011). But I’m TERRIBLE with the top and have lost more opportunity than I’ve gained because of it – I’m a below-average investor.

    Could it be that the bottom is defined by reality, but the top is just this illogical stuff that I can’t seem to stomach?

    1. Could it be that the bottom is defined by reality, but the top is just this illogical stuff Reality defines itself. Applying logic to the issue often misses the mark.

    2. You may have pinpointed the bear’s bubble market investing conundrum.

      If you want to play with making money in blowout bubble tops, when Fed money printing combined with whimsical narratives creates ripe conditions for a unicorn population explosion, it pays to understand the Keynesian beauty contest concept.

  13. Do not give your hard-earned money to creepy corporations pushing “woke” or globalist agendas. Just don’t.

    #BoycottHeineken Trends After Brewer Celebrates Vaccines

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-09/-boycottheineken-trends-in-u-k-after-brewer-celebrates-vaccines?sref=ibr3A0ff

    Heineken NV ran a minute-long ad on social media Thursday showing senior citizens dancing in a nightclub and racing to take a dip at a nearby beach. It ended with the message, “The night belongs to the vaccinated. Time to join them.”

    By Friday, bands of aggrieved users on Twitter were threatening to #BoycottHeineken. Some uploaded videos of themselves opening bottles of the brewer’s namesake lager and pouring it down their kitchen sinks in protest. Others described the ad as pro-vaccination propaganda.

    1. It ended with the message, “The night belongs to the vaccinated. Time to join them.”

      Most of my vaxxed colleagues ate still afraid of taking a vacation, because of the Delta variant.

          1. I do have colleagues who aren’t vaxxed and aren’t hiding under their beds. But it feels like we’re the minority.

          2. This is the part I really don’t like:

            Mike Sicilia, executive vice president of Oracle’s Global Business Units, said: “As the world begins to recover from the pandemic, having electronic access to vaccination, testing, and other medical records will be vital to resuming travel and more.

            Oh, that bit about “other medical records” slipped in so easily, didn’t it? They’re using the pandemic as a Trojan horse to collect everybody’s medical records on everything and sell them. HIPPA, what’s that? Just put a little clause in the ToS that customers give up their privacy in order to the use the app.

  14. CDC announces it is targeting kids for COVID shots

    https://www.wnd.com/2021/07/cdc-announces-targeting-kids-covid-shots/

    The Centers for Disease Control, the organization that has been at the forefront of the lobbying on various COVID-19 issues over the last year, says it will be targeting children with its vaccinations program as parents starting thinking about schooling this fall.

    That’s even though a study described in Fortune confirmed they face an “extremely low” risk from COVID, and “have no need to shield from the virus.”

    1. I’ve noticed a sudden reappearance of “low sperm count” articles lately. Maybe the reason to vaxx the kids is to reduce fertility to match the Narrative?

      1. reduce fertility

        This is a serious concern for every woman and girl under 35. Reproductive toxicity and teratogenicity studies weren’t done for these so-called vaccines and the lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) concentrate in the ovaries.

        1. Such studies are unnecessary. Our CDC assures us the vaccines are safe and effective. We must accept this on faith. St. Greta shines her countenance on all who trust and obey.

        2. This is a serious concern for every woman and girl under 35

          Not all women want kids (thankfully, otherwise I’d be single today!). The risk may be there, but not everyone cares (just like I never cared about anything that may lower my fertility).

          1. Not all women want kids

            When it’s irreversible, you better be damn sure you don’t.

          2. When it’s irreversible, you better be damn sure you don’t.

            Correct. I’ve met a few who insisted that they didn’t want any kids when younger, and changed their minds later.

          3. I’ve met a few who insisted that they didn’t want any kids when younger, and changed their minds later.

            I have too, though I’ve also met the opposite — those who wanted kids, but then decided later they didn’t (actually knew a couple who were mis-aligned one way when they met, then were mis-aligned the other way later in life).

          1. Nice! I saw a dream job posting in Cambridge, MA not too long ago but it’s with the VC firm backing Moderna. Hard pass.

    2. I’m becoming more and more concerned that my child will be vaccinated at school without my permission. He’s conditioned to be compliant, would go along with it, and wouldn’t tell me. Even if asked, I can’t rely on his responses. I don’t think this is an irrational fear given what we’re seeing in the US and what’s already happening in Canada. Thankfully, my son doesn’t like ice cream and is only now at 11yo tasting sweets.

      1. This kind of news coverage doesn’t seem to exist in the USA.

        IIRC, Laura Ingraham and Tucker Carlson have discussed it.

  15. “There’s never been a better time to buy in Death Valley.” — Every realtor within 100 miles of Death Valley

    Moment fire TORNADO rages through California wildfire site as Golden State braces for ANOTHER heatwave: 117F forecast sparks power and water outage fears as Death Valley hits 130F – the hottest temperature Earth has recorded in 90 years

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9775643/Moment-fire-TORNADO-hits-California-wildfire-site-Golden-State-braces-heatwave.html

  16. Real Journalists are globalist shills who rival realtors when it comes to lying for a living.

    ‘Yes, I am biased’: Ex-New York Times editor fired for saying she got ‘chills’ when Joe Biden became president DEFENDS inserting her personal views into stories and says they’re needed to counter ‘lies’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9775619/Yes-biased-Ex-New-York-Times-editor-fired-saying-Joe-Biden-gave-chills-says.html

    A former New York Times editor fired over a tweet claiming Joe Biden’s inauguration was giving her ‘chills’ has defended her behavior in an op-ed entitled: ‘I’m a Biased Journalist and I’m Okay With That.’

    Lauren Wolfe defended the comments that lost her her job at the New York Times in a piece published in the Washington Monthly on Friday, and insisted it is fine for reporters’ to insert their personal views into some news stories.

    1. “The Times said Wolfe’s dismissal was not on the basis of the ‘chills’ tweet alone, but did not comment any further on the reasons for letting her go.”

      What’s her POV on Israel and the Occupied Territories?

      1. And the beginning…and the middle…I suspect not all viewers watched that video solely for its political message.

    1. “You’re from the government and you work for ME!” That’s adorable, lady. I don’t think anyone’s been under that delusion since the Woodrow Wilson Administration.

  17. “I’ve seen this movie before
    And I have to admit it’s no bore
    But the lying, the dying, the late night crying
    All make me want to watch it no more.”

    1. I’m travelin’ down the road
      I’m flirtin’ with disaster
      I’ve got the pedal to the floor,
      My life is running faster
      I’m out of money, I’m out of hope,
      It looks like self destruction
      Well how much more can we take,
      With all of this corruption

      We’re flirtin’ with disaster,
      Ya’ll know what I mean
      And the way we run our lives,
      It makes no sense to me
      I don’t know about yourself or what you want to be, yeah
      When we gamble with our time,
      We choose our destiny

      I’m travelin’ down that lonesome road
      Feel like I’m dragging a heavy load
      Yeah I’ve tried to turn my head away,
      Feels about the same most every day

      Molly Hatchet

  18. Read Today’s Top Story: Atlanta REALTORS®: Leading with diversity and inclusion

    DOJ withdraws from antitrust settlement with NAR
    by John Yellig
    July 07, 2021

    The U.S. Justice Department’s antitrust division will withdraw from a proposed settlement with the National Association of Realtors that it entered into in November 2020.

    The department determined that the settlement would not do enough to protect its ability to investigate other conduct by NAR affecting competition in the real estate market.

    The DOJ said in a press release that is withdrawing from the settlement to permit a broader investigation of NAR’s rules and conduct.

    The department’s complaint against NAR, filed Nov. 19, 2020, alleges that the association enforced rules and policies that illegally hampered competition in residential real estate services.

    While the proposed settlement sought to fix those practices and encourage competition among Realtors, it also prevented the department from pursuing other antitrust claims over NAR rules, the department said.

    The DOJ said it tried and failed to reach an agreement with NAR to modify the settlement to preserve its right to investigate and challenge other conduct by the association. Withdrawing from the agreement preserves the department’s ability to enforce antitrust laws, the DOJ said.

    NAR disagreed with the Justice Department’s decision, arguing in a statement that its rules and policies have “long sought to ensure fair and competitive real estate markets for home buyers and sellers.”

  19. Drove passed a RE Office earlier today, the sign out front said:
    “Everything we touch turns to Sold!”

    A bit later I sat in the car and skimmed though an article while my wife dropped some stuff to a friend – evidently people are flocking back to the cities and rents are skyrocketing everywhere.

    1. evidently people are flocking back to the cities

      Just goes to show how short their memories are.

    2. evidently people are flocking back to the cities and rents are skyrocketing everywhere.

      There never was intent to abandon cities long term. That was yet another false narrative. Those far flung, cheap areas with minimal shopping and services which were supposedly red hotcakes will, once again, be dirt cheap. Very few people can handle living rural.

  20. The HBB should pool our money and buy a Hunter Biden painting. As one of the great masters at his craft, I believe the value of Hunter’s art will appreciate multifold after Joe Biden leaves office and is no longer in a position to peddle influence to “patrons of the arts.”

    Jen Psaki says Hunter Biden has ‘the right’ to pursue new art career despite fears anonymous painting buyers will have undue influence after White House carved out deal to keep $500K sales secret

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9773819/Jen-Psaki-defends-White-House-plan-help-Hunter-Bidens-art-buyers-secret.html

    1. From the article:

      Experts are already warning of the risks of influence peddling or at least the appearance of ethical conflict

      Fedgovs have to take ethics training, and it is taught that “the appearance of” ethical conflict is almost as bad as actual conflict. Fedgov trust is low enough as it is.

  21. Email from Realtor.com with a $100K price reduction. Two others pending with $140K and $100K price reductions. Insanity is subsiding.

    1. That’s a promising development, considering that the Fed has just barely started hinting that someday in the not too distant future, they may initiate further discussion about eventually considering the prospect of tapering their Unlimited Quantitative Easing pandemic mortgage backed security and Treasury bond purchases.

      Once the Fed withdraws their pandemic stimulus measures, the return to affordability might proceed even faster than a turd sinking to the bottom of a well.

  22. “An S&P index of 16 builders had surged nearly 250% between March 2020 and early May. But the index has slumped about 12% since then, with industry bellwethers DR Horton Inc. and PulteGroup Inc. among the 11 companies that saw double-digit declines. The retreat came as multiple metrics showed that the real estate market is cooling off.”

    Here’s to hoping the correction in the Wall Street funded monopoly builder shares morphs into a bear market swoon followed by a crater, as homes return to affordable price levels.

  23. Considering that the Wall Street stock market headline indexes attained their umpteenth record highs for 2021 on Friday, is all the hand wringing over a new market paradigm justified?

    1. Market Snapshot
      A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative — should investors believe it?
      Last Updated: July 10, 2021 at 8:51 a.m. ET
      First Published: July 9, 2021 at 5:15 p.m. ET
      By William Watts
      Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge

      Referenced Symbols
      TMUBMUSD10Y 1.359%
      SPX +1.13%
      COMP +0.98%
      DJIA +1.30%
      NDX +0.71%
      RLV +1.54%

      Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth — and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors — but is this new narrative the right one ?

      A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy, sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.

      What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.

      The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked. Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.

      “Together, that’s a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,” Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: “Is this new narrative the right one?”

  24. Ok, so Biden says the “Booster shot” for Covid for the variants will also be free and paid for by the Government. While it hasn’t been approved yet , you just know it will be.

    So, over a flu that actually is not threatening to 99.7 % of the population , they are sitting up to take shots every six months. And Big Pharmacy isn’t liable, and tax dollars pay for Big Pharmacy who gets emergency use authorization to ignore safety trials on some new technology.
    So, this new medical tyranny where they even want to vaccinate low risk children, pregnant women , and people who have immunity already, and censor highly effective med treatments, the public should go along with this outrageous Medical fraud.
    If Big Pharmacy gets this Medical fraud, there will be no end to the other forced vaccines that also have a limited benefit risk ratio. Than lockdowns over climate change also based on false narratives.
    Our freedoms taken by any Narrative they want to promote , with dispute censored.
    While , I don’t actually think that they had a objective to kill people by a vaccine , they do have a objective of mass vaccinations and medical tyranny imposed on the public without regard to benefit/risk ratio. Basically this is the Government enforcing the agenda of a Private Party Monopoly , being Big Pharmacy, that doesn’t have liability on their vaccines.
    FDA is not protecting the public , as so many Government agencies have gone over to the dark side.

  25. Ok, so I got the stat that China had a 0.35% per 100 thousand death rate from Covid. One of the lowest in all Countries, in spite of having over a billion in population and China being ground zero for Covid.
    Really, I can’t forget that original footage from China where people were falling in the streets from Covid and the Doctor who acted like he was leaking that his patients were dying from something new, than they claimed this Dr. died, in spite of being young.
    Than Inaccurate PCR tests used in US to determine cases, than hospitals bribed to claim every death was Covid, while ICU patients were denied meds that worked, for respirators with 90% death rate.
    They seem to think that they can do all these false things, than change the stats after the fact, just as they are willing to now revisit the lab leak from China narrative.

    We are allowed to lie, omit, and suppress the truth, until our objective are obtained, than we start leaking truths we denied before , as if delayed truth isn’t fraud.

    1. We are allowed to lie, omit, and suppress the truth, until our objective are obtained, than we start leaking truths we denied before , as if delayed truth isn’t fraud.

      They did that with the election too. Remember the Time magazine article where they admitted they were “fortifying” the election to ensure the “proper outcome.”

    2. patients were denied meds that worked, for respirators with 90% death rate

      Ventilators. Respirators are the N-95 masks.

      Ventilators had fallen out of favor before HCQ was discovered as a potential treatment. Ivermectin was not discovered until later. But they did deny those treatments, no doubt about that.

      1. Ventilators. Respirators are the N-95 masks.

        A ventilator can be called a respirator according to those guys who write dictionaries.

      2. I stand corrected on the proper names you mentioned oxide.

        Long before the vaccine rolled out, they had knowledge of the med treatments , and nothing was done according to Dr McCullough. Thousands could of been saved. Also they might of been denied emergency use for vaccines if there was viable med treatments, that they stonewalled and censored and ignored.
        The meds could still be a viable choice for people. That’s what I would choose at what is a apparently a 85% effective rate if given soon enough.Also under meds you would get better long term immunity against variants etc.
        This thing about being hooked in to ongoing vaccine shots, most likely every 6 months, made by Entities I don’t even trust, is my biggest nightmare.
        I already had a loved one killed by a vaccine 12 years ago, and another one killed at the hospital by a drug.
        I don’t come by my position on things by not already being harmed by the system.

        1. I don’t come by my position on things by not already being harmed by the system.

          I believe most mooching anti-vaxxers would agree with this.

          1. While I never used the medical system , my family bought into it. So, I just got to watch them die, being helpless to save them, but carrying the quilt of not being able to stop the harm. The vaccine I’m talking about was given without my permission.

            So when your saying your concerned they will give the vaccine to your son without your permission , be very concerned.

            Watching death by ventilator, been there saw that up close.
            So, yes I come by my position the hard way.

          1. HPV
            Yeah, doctors recommended Gardasil to my daughter back then. Having read at the time about Gov. Perry, his mandate to vaccinate and Merck, it was a big hell no.

            On February 2, 2007, Texas Governor Rick Perry, against the wishes of his conservative base and to the surprise of critics, signed an executive order mandating HPV vaccination for girls entering seventh grade. Then, unfortunately for Perry and Merck, details of his many connections with both Merck and Women in Government became public.

            Quote is from 2017 article that details the goings on:
            Death by a Thousand Cuts: When the Cures of Big Pharma are Worse than the Diseases
            by Paul Haeder / November 17th, 2017
            https://dissidentvoice.org/2017/11/death-by-a-thousand-cuts-when-the-cures-of-big-pharma-are-worse-than-the-diseases/

          2. Nope, not HVP. Suffice to say that she got the disease the vaccine was suppose to prevent. I didn’t even authorize it. There was no reason to give that vaccine other than they like to give that vaccine.

  26. Coercion, and lack of informed consent is against the law apparently. But , these violation of the law are rampant with the vaccine campaign. Again, achieve the objectives and than its to late for the lawbreaking to matter. In part due to how long it takes Court cases to stop violations.
    In other words, the damage is done and damage becomes known to far after the fact .

    Just like with the three years that produce slander damage to President Trump, over the Russian hoax, where extensive investigation produced nothing. By the time it comes out that the Covid Panademic wasn’t justified and the damage it caused was criminal , it will be to late.
    And this BS all the time that they didn’t know , is not believable.
    Remember when the Bankers in 2009 said they didn’t know, and they didn’t see it coming that basically their loan paper was a bunch of fraud.
    This is were any corruption under the sun gets absolved by claiming ignorance.
    The fact that it takes years and a big bankroll to sue any big Monopoly, because they will exercise every Motion under the sun , and keep on appealing the case, than delayed Justice means no Justice at all.
    And I predict that the lawsuit Trump filed against censorship will take to long for it to stop the censorship that’s creating the outrageous damage and violation of the first amendment.

    1. Tarara Boomdea

      ” its crushing. ”

      Maybe that’s why I’m a little obsessed with all the different types of harm that will happen. That lady who allowed her 12 year old daughter to get the vaccine and now her daughter is disabled, that mother is toast, you can already tell. They don’t only harm the direct victim of the shot, but that mother is going to go crazy because it happened.

      And the people who really are to blame don’t care. They are giving out candy to children and other incentives to go around the parents.

      So, after reflecting on these issues now for almost 13 years, I can’t keep my mouth shut.

      1. Agree, completely. Horrible for the daughter, psychologically devastating for the mother.

        I can take almost anything, setbacks, financial trouble, this ongoing rental bs, actions of idiots, insults, whatever and let it roll off my back, but if someone hurts my daughter, words or actions, I totally lose it. Get a little over the top, admittedly.

        1. 12 year old children simply do not need to be vaccinated. Their risk of dying or becoming seriously ill from Covid-19 is minuscule. You hear the Dr. Fraud-Xis of the world say that the Risk Ratio is 100 for people who don’t get vaccinated but that doesn’t mean anything. The risk of a child dying from Covid-19 is so tiny (e.g. 1/1,000,000 or whatever it is) without the vaccine and so with the vaccine that only reduces the risk to 1/100,000. Both risks are essentially zero.

          A child is 100 times more likely to die in a car accident on the way to be vaccinated, or 1000 times more likely to drown in a swimming pool or bathtub.

          It’s medical malpractice to recommend that children and healthy young adults be vaccinated for Covid-19. “Herd” immunity is a myth and it isn’t necessary in order for the pandemic to end all on its own. In fact, all the data indicates that the Covid-19 epidemic is on its way out the door.

          So there’s no reason to vaccinate ANYONE now. All the susceptible people have already been infected and got over it or died. Those left either had a mild case or were asymptomatic or aren’t resistant to becoming infected in the first place.

  27. Ok, so in summary , Dr. Fauci is saying once vaccine is approved by FDA, they can mandate the vaccines and Dr. Fauci endorses vaccines mandated by Government.
    If the FDA approves this , especially when Top doctors and data proving unacceptable safety factors, than the FDA is corrupted and has no safety standards at all.
    So, it would be mandated that you have to take a unsafe experimental vaccine ,not time tested, that the evidence already shows there has been more adverse reaction to the Covid vaccines than all others. They know darn well that with some people the manufactured spike is traveling throughout the body ,causing a extreme risk of death or medical events of disabling. One Doctor said that the robust immune system of younger people might be the very thing that produces this over production of spike protein that ends up traveling in the body .
    So, I don’t know if they are going to allow exemptions to such proposed vaccine mandates.
    With the way they are extorting Drs to go along with the program , and they are censoring Drs. that dispute the safety of the vaccine, and med cures, choice is being taken away. Since lawsuits take so long, they are in a race against time to unleash this tyranny.
    Since this isn’t a time tested vaccine, and its new technology, that the evidence shows the technology is flawed , the risk/benefit radio on a flu that’s affecting a small percent has no justification to be mandated.
    So, why are they trying to force a rebellion by millions of people who don’t want to take their jab.
    Why did they rig the election than lable the. protesters to a rigged election Innsurrectists?
    The point will come where the people will have no choice but rebellion, but maybe that is what they want. Hope it doesn’t come to that.

    1. Why did they rig the election than lable the. protesters

      It’s simply an exercise in power. Remember that Marxism is amoral. They have a use for morals, your morals, which they use against you.

      1. Blueskye,

        Are they really Marxists? It seems like they are private party Monopolies that are getting Government agencies to do whatever they want, while they pump out monopolized fake and censored news, while they loot and loot.
        I don’t think they have any real ideological basis, other than they want power over everything. They might use Marxism to obtain goals , but I think they are more like kings who think its their birthright to dictate.

        1. Lie, loot and dictate. That’s all Socialism (Marxism) is. It’s not a birthright, it’s taken by force.

    2. I’m sure that in many states that governors will reject any federal vaxx mandate.

      What I could see happening are restrictions: no vaxx, you can’t board an airliner.

      1. Darn it, I might need to move real quick if they mandate it in California. I would rather go the med option route if I get a severe case of Covid or Delta.
        I’m not going to take a vaccine when they use inaccurate PCR tests to determine the condition to begin with. This is just one big contrived fraud to me.

        1. The Government can’t require you to get any vaccine. Schools and employment in healthcare facilities have vaccine mandates which have been validated by various courts, etc. But even the common flu vaccine is not mandatory at all hospitals or clinics. Also, many people CAN’T be vaccinated for a myriad of reasons. At the hospital where I worked for 20 years, if a staff member wasn’t vaccinated against the flu (everybody got the flu vaccine at the beginning of flu season), they were required to wear a mask and take some other precautions. Nobody got fired because they didn’t vaccinated.

          The Covid-19 vaccine is never going to get FDA approval just because of its dismal safety record and lack of data on the true effect and effectiveness of the vaccine. Also, the best immunity you can get from Covid-19 is to have been infected with it, natural immunity is far superior to this experimental RNA thing.

          The most sensible way to approach this vaccination question would be to test if a person has antibodies to Covid-19 (ie, they already got infected). If they have already been infected and mounted an immune response, it would be completely unethical to give them an experimental vaccine that can potentially kill them or make them seriously ill. Exposing a person to risks like the vaccine because some politicians mandate it is the sure fire way to start a real revolution in this country.

          1. I hope your right zzy. But your being logical, and what these people do defies logic.

      2. I got my official CDC vaccine “passport”–I just scanned one and filled it in with my name and phony data.

        The United States does not have any national ID database. You’d need that first to be able to track every person’s vaccine status. So they can talk all they want about vaccine “passports”, but it will never happen.

        Can you imagine the protests from the illegal alien lobby? They’d all be required to go to a Federal office to get their Federal ID card and identity entered into the database! It would be great fun to see!!!

        1. 👍🏻 I downloaded a high quality image a few months ago to have just in case in came to that. Trying to decide what to say or just not answer the door when the goon squads show up here in Nevada.

          Get Ready for a Knock at your Door! Sisolak Asks Biden to Send Federal Surge Teams ∙ July 9, 2021
          https://networkinvegas.com/get-ready-for-a-knock-at-your-door-sisolak-asks-biden-to-send-federal-surge-teams/

          The guv is totally ineffectual but he’s right on the case with this. IDK, not the best idea. Lots of guns and hot heads here. And it’s really, really hot.

  28. A Covid-19 vaccine won’t be needed if it disappears from the face of the earth. That’s what all other pandemics/epidemics have done since time began. Like I said before, when’s the last time someone died of the Spanish Flu of 1918?

    The only way I can see that Covid-19 might live on is because it is not a naturally occurring virus, it was manufactured in a lab. This has never been done before so there’s no data to look at.

    Still, the shape of the Covid-19 curves from around the world all follow roughly the same path. Covid-19 isn’t like cholera, the plague, typhus or other infectious diseases which have animal reservoirs and rely on vectors to infect humans. Covid-19 is not like Hepatitis or HIV, it’s an airborne flu-like virus. Flu viruses come and go and I expect Covid-19 will do the same unless the Chinese have created a truly Frankenstein monster.

    1. the Chinese have created

      Perhaps they just created the scare. Paralyzed the rest of the globe and had themselves a good laugh.

      1. Most likely it was just due to incompetence. Gain of function research is really something nobody should be playing with but I wouldn’t trust the Chinese or Russians further than I could throw them. The real risk is that one day some lab in China or Russia will create a REAL nightmare of a virus that will make Covid-19 look like the common cold.

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