thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Everyone Who’s Willing To Overpay For A House Already Has

A report from the Dallas Business Journal in Texas. “Real estate agents and others in the residential business say they have seen DFW transition over the last couple of months from a completely insane housing market to what’s still a red-hot market, but more manageable. The Dallas Business Journal turned to josh Harley CEO of real estate brokerage Fathom Holdings. What are buyers and sellers to make of this mixed-up North Texas market? Is it down-shifting from overheated to merely robust? Are the days of over-the-top bidding wars behind us, or are they just taking a breather? ‘It’s softening but not soft, and it’s not softening in a negative direction. It’s softening in a positive direction.'”

From AZ Family in Arizona. “After seeing low inventory and skyrocketing prices, some Valley realtors said supply and demand is beginning to even out. Realtor Brandon LaVallee said more inventory, fewer offers and more availability for showings point to a market change. ‘Inventory is up 92% since February, more houses for sale, more possibilities for buyers, it definitely shows the market is leveling out,’ said LaVallee. ‘Prices might not drop, but we will likely see a lot less of these 20, 30, 50 thousand dollars over asking price offers.'”

The Hawaii Tribune Herald. “‘A lot of people are selling their expensive homes in Oahu or California and moving to cheaper places,’ said Lucena Nicolas, founder of Pineapple Homes in Pahoa. ‘You get people who are tired of paying a $4,000-a-month mortgage in Honolulu, and they decide to retire to the Big Island where it’s cheaper. And they’ll pay cash for a $200,000 home, even if it’s only worth $150,000.'”

“Of course, nothing lasts forever. There could be a new source of housing available in less than a month. ‘We have so many houses ready to hit the market right now, but they can’t because the current tenants can’t be evicted,’ Nicolas said.”

From KRON 4 in California. “Some good news for home buyers, housing inventory is rising. Inventory rose by more than 3% across the United States for the second straight month in a row and that includes right here in the Bay Area. ‘I think that wild west kind of market has settled down slightly, so I think we are seeing a better opportunity for buyers right now,’ said realtor Jessica Lopez.”

The Los Angeles Times. “Southern California’s real estate market hit another historic peak in June, hough analysts see the extreme bidding wars of the last year beginning to ease. With more houses steadily being listed for sale, Compass agent Brent Chang said he thinks the historic seller’s market could calm down before the end of the year. ‘With every new article that comes out about how great the market is for sellers, a new wave of homeowners put their houses on the market. One agent I know is listing five properties a week,’ he said.”

“As for buyers, he thinks everyone who’s willing to overpay for a house already has, so the surge of bidding wars might slow down in the next few months. ‘If you don’t have to buy now, why would you buy now?’ he asked. ‘Inventory is growing, but the buyer pool is staying the same. That equates to lower sales prices.'”

From CBS Miami in Florida. “After the collapse of Champlain Towers South in Surfside, people who live in condominiums have grown more concerned about the state of their own buildings. Such is the case for Miami Beach resident Mario Juarez who spoke to CBS4. He said his building is exhibiting many of the same signs Champlain Towers South had before it came crashing down and he now has trouble sleeping at night.”

“‘We use to see Champlain Towers South right there, who would have thought that building would collapse and that pretty much has us worried because that building, when you looked at it, when you compare it with this one, this is worst in any condition, in every single condition, in every single sense,’ stressed Juarez.”

“According to a recent engineer report, Harding Hall is badly in need of repairs. Its balconies have deteriorated to a point where no one is allowed on them. Its pool is leaking and there is a sinkhole in the garage. The garage also floods every time it rains. The building also has exposed rebar and cracks in the support beams. Juarez said he not only fears for his life but for his investment. ‘This building needs to be repaired and that has taken priority over any enjoyment we can have in this apartment,’ he said.”

The Brampton Guardian in Canada. “The chorus of economists and experts warning of a housing bubble in Toronto and its surrounding regions is growing. ‘The biggest domestic vulnerabilities are those linked to imbalances in the housing market and high household indebtedness. These are not new, but they have intensified because of the very unusual circumstance caused by the pandemic,’ said BOC governor Tiff Macklem during his FSR news conference. ‘The increased issuance of mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios is of most concern … It’s important to understand that the rapid increases in home prices are not normal.'”

“Not everyone agrees the GTA and Canada are in a housing bubble, such as one of Canada’s largest real-estate firms, RE/MAX. ‘There are a number of factors that indicate we’re not experiencing a bubble caused by market speculators, contrary to some media reports,’ said the company.”

From CKPG Today in Canada. “The housing market is hot right now in Prince George. These high prices combined with homes averaging less than two months on the market before being sold, has brought up concerns about a housing bubble. Local experts say that’s not a concern here in the north. ‘It’s not like the housing is coming on and it’s sitting there, it’s selling. Who’s buying it? Not nearly as much speculation, mostly the people buying it are living in it. It’s not like areas of Vancouver… when you’re driving down the street, there are areas in Richmond and Burnaby, where one house in five doesn’t have its lights on cause nobody’s in it. It’s a speculation buy,’ said Charles Scott, Faculty Member UNBC School of Business.”

From Domain News. “Almost a third of Australians say they face mortgage or rental stress amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, with household savings also taking a hit in recent months. Against a backdrop of rapidly rising property prices and record-high rents across much of the country, 31 per cent of people are struggling to make their rent or home loan payments, new figures show.”

“While this is down slightly from 33 per cent of renters and home owners in June, it’s well up on the 23 per cent of respondents who reported rent or home loan stress in July last year. The Finder Consumer Sentiment Tracker shows stress levels had been rising steadily since. People overextending themselves to keep up with rising property prices could also be a factor for increased mortgage stress, particularly among recent first-home buyers, as could recent increases in rates for fixed mortgages.”

“The Financial Rights Legal Centre, which offers advice and advocacy for those in financial stress, is consistently getting calls daily from those in mortgage stress, said senior police and communications officer Julia Davis. ‘They are often referrals from the banks, people who were on a COVID-related [mortgage] deferral during 2020 … and all those deferrals have come to an end, and people are not in a position to go back to resuming normal repayments.'”

“AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver also expressed concern that the 60,000 government loan scheme spots – which help first-home buyers and single parents to get into the market with lower deposits – could cause higher mortgage stress levels down the line. While it was desirable to help these groups onto the property ladder, he said there was a danger in more people borrowing at a very high loan to value ratio.”

From Reuters. “Shares and bonds of China Evergrande, the country’s most indebted developer, stayed in the red on Tuesday as worries over its financial health persisted even after a local housing authority removed an earlier sales suspension at two real estate projects. Evergrande’s Hong Kong-listed shares tumbled as much as 19% to a fresh four-year low in morning trading, following Monday’s 16% plunge, after the housing authority in Shaoyang city in south central Hunan province ordered a sales halt for the two residential projects.”

“The authority had ordered the suspension on suspicion over a misappropriation of funds, according to separate notices dated July 14. But in a reversal on Tuesday, it said the issue had been resolved and the two developments could resume sales. ‘Evergrande’s external financing is restricted, so its debt repayment relies heavily on property sales,’ Everbright Securities analyst Zhang Xu wrote.”

“‘The housing situation in China is quite political because it becomes an affordability issue and a matter of social cohesion,’ said Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at Union Bancaire Privee. The government will continue to keep curbs in place, ‘so we are going to see more defaults.’ Last week, Chinese real estate developer Sichuan Languang Development said it had overdue debts totalling 4.54 billion yuan. China Fortune Land Development Co, which defaulted earlier this year, said on Tuesday that its overdue debts had increased to 73.2 billion yuan.”

Related Posts

The Correction Phase Of The Housing Market Has Started

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBGvxXjAmI8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-KnL1c7eLU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-Y26pE_Los https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYnTpBaAPWI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVj7muhXz68 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBcAKtZ1fiI

This Post Has 105 Comments

  1. ‘Inventory is up 92% since February’

    Wa happened to my shortage Phoenix?

    ‘With every new article that comes out about how great the market is for sellers, a new wave of homeowners put their houses on the market. One agent I know is listing five properties a week’

    I see. But this means these shacks were there all along. So there never was a shortage, just a bunch of people waiting for that sweet equity. Well don’t everybody head for the exits at the same time. Order people, order!

    1. Assuming five months since February, Phoenix’s inventory has risen from the ashes since then at an average 14% monthly rate of increase (1.92^(1/5)-1= 14%).

      The reported 3% national rate of increase seems relatively benign by comparison. But it only takes 24 months to double at that rate (72/3 = 24). And the end of foreclosure and eviction moratoriums could bring a lot more inventory to market in a hurry.

      1. “And the end of foreclosure and eviction moratoriums could bring a lot more inventory to market in a hurry.”

        Yep. I suspect a lot of landlords that went through the agony of having their savings gutted paying their rental mortgages (because they got stiffed for rent due to the moratoriums) are going to throw in the towel and sell (whether they get reimbursed or not).

  2. ‘The increased issuance of mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios is of most concern … It’s important to understand that the rapid increases in home prices are not normal’ – BOC governor Tiff Macklem.

    Click!

  3. ‘consistently getting calls daily from those in mortgage stress…‘They are often referrals from the banks, people who were on a COVID-related [mortgage] deferral during 2020 … and all those deferrals have come to an end, and people are not in a position to go back to resuming normal repayments’

    Huh, that’s exactly what happened the last time guberments said you can stop paying. And then they default several times again.

    ‘expressed concern that the 60,000 government loan scheme spots – which help first-home buyers and single parents to get into the market with lower deposits – could cause higher mortgage stress levels down the line’

    Every level of subprime creates more defaults, like turning a faucet.

    ‘While it was desirable to help these groups onto the property ladder, he said there was a danger in more people borrowing at a very high loan to value ratio’

    What do you mean it’s died in the arse, yer on the ladder?

  4. “‘We use to see Champlain Towers South right there, who would have thought that building would collapse and that pretty much has us worried because that building, when you looked at it, when you compare it with this one, this is worst in any condition, in every single condition, in every single sense,’ stressed Juarez.”

    You and your fellow condo dwellers must sleep well at night, Juarez. I fear this could negatively impact your equity as well as the underlying collateral for all aging Miami condo towers.

      1. “Basic Central Florida Geology

        “The Florida Peninsula is a limestone plateau formed many millions of years ago when the area was a warm, shallow sea. Millions of years of deposits from small sea creatures make up the limestone, which is several thousand feet thick.”

        http://www.floridacaving.com/pages/misc/geoflorida.htm#:~:text=Basic%20Florida%20Geology&text=The%20Florida%20Peninsula%20is%20a,is%20several%20thousand%20feet%20thick.

        “A sinkhole is a hole in the ground that forms when water dissolves surface rock. Often, this surface rock is limestone, which is easily eroded, or worn away, by the movement of water. … Slowly, as the limestone dissolves and is carried away, the joints widen until the ground above them becomes unstable and collapses.”

        sinkhole | National Geographic Society
        https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/sinkhole/#:~:text=Powered%20by-,A%20sinkhole%20is%20a%20hole%20in%20the%20ground%20that%20forms,by%20the%20movement%20of%20water.&text=Slowly%2C%20as%20the%20limestone%20dissolves,them%20becomes%20unstable%20and%20collapses.

        1. “A sinkhole is a hole in the ground that forms when water dissolves surface rock. Often, this surface rock is limestone.”

          Civil Engineering terminology, “Dissolution of Limestone.”

    2. “Juarez said he not only fears for his life but for his investment.”

      Kinda like driving on bald tires!

  5. In SC , we have been lucky, except for a few months in 2020, Landlords have always been able to evict for rent non-payment, on Privately owned houses….Anything government backed,or section 8, not so , think they’re still holding it off…… The landlords with the better houses are listing them now, for sale, though it’s not been a lot of that……
    We are still a state that’s 55% Republican ,so common sense still reigns ,so far……Homelessness is very rarely seen ,except for a few mental cases .

    1. “Homelessness is very rarely seen ,except for a few mental cases .”

      Same in CA. Except as a former adviser once explained it to me, ‘they tilted the country and all the nuts rolled out to California.’

  7. Six months to the day since Pedo Joe was sworn into office.

    When he says “America is back” what he really means is America is back under the control of the unelected, uniparty, deep state of globalists.

    1. The criminally stolen Government by a rigged election , that is intent on advancing a One World Order of Globalist Monopoly rule of US and other Countries, is E-V-I-L. There is no end to the harm and destruction these psychopaths are willing to do , and they are like a military operation in who they are targeting. US Citizens have to take the Country back from these Entities that are anti humanity, and murderous.

  9. Ben, line up for your annual COVID booster shot!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/los-angeles-county-restores-indoor-mask-mandate-for-all.html

    “Meanwhile, in Northern California, at least 59 residents at a homeless shelter have tested positive for the virus, half of whom were vaccinated, health officials said.

    Of those infected at the shelter in Santa Rosa, 28 were fully vaccinated, Dr. Sundari Mase, Sonoma County’s health officer, said Wednesday. Officials were reviewing an additional 26 possible positive cases.

    Of the 59 people with confirmed infections at Samuel L. Jones Hall, nine were hospitalized, including six who were fully vaccinated and had “multiple, significant” underlying health conditions, including diabetes and pulmonary disease, health officials said. Four have since been discharged, and five remain hospitalized.”

    1. They are censoring the reports that have come out from other highly vaccinated Countries that the vaccinated are getting Covid in high numbers, like the UK and Israel.
      This is just another fraud that its the unvaccinated that are causing a surge in cases.
      The absurdity is that the inaccurate PCR tests are still the determinate for cases.
      I just heard that Gates has purchased the PCR Company for the tests, in which that news article has already been taken down
      Some other talking head a while back was saying the key to this Medical fraud was the PCR tests.
      I have never been able to get over the fact that a Panademic, lockdowns and masks are declared by testing non sick people by a fake test.
      Emergency Use Authorization obtained based on this outrageous fraud of the test for Covid.

      1. A disease so deadly, you have to get tested to find out if you have it.

        A vaccine so effective, more people are dying from the medicine than are dying with the disease.

        1. A disease so deadly, you have to get tested to find out if you have it.

          Isn’t it funny how nebulous tests weren’t needed to diagnose those with Small Pox or the Measles?

        2. more people are dying from the medicine than are dying with the disease.

          Find me 600,000 vaccine/medicine deaths in the US. That’s what COVID has done. I’ll even give you a head start and say that 300,000 of those COVID deaths were actually motorcycle accidents.

          Look, if you want to hate on the vaccine, hate on the vaccine. But don’t lie about the data.

          2. As I’ve said, I don’t use the word evil lightly. This isn’t about politics. We are dealing with mass murderers. Lots of them.

          3. don’t lie about the data

            You assume the data we’re given tells the truth. It doesn’t. If people aren’t experiencing horrific side effects (see https://t.me/covidvaccineinjuries), then why is FB removing a support group and why is a whistleblower, who is a computer programmer with subject matter expertise in healthcare data analytics and access to Medicare and Medicaid data maintained by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, submitting a declaration in support of a lawsuit seeking a preliminary injunction to enjoin the government from vaccinating people under 18 and those who have been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2?

          4. Find me 600,000 vaccine/medicine deaths in the US

            How about we look at last week, since I used the present tense.

            …there were 174 more Covid vaccine deaths in the United States last week than Covid deaths in the United States last week

    2. Twitter doesn’t like Alex’s tweets as of last Friday.

      https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1416880859462971395:
      The newest Israeli data indicate ~complete vaccine failure on every level. Remember: Israel used only the @pfizer mRNA shot and followed Pfizer dosing schedule. This data, from the @IsraelMOH
      telegram account, show nearly all serious cases and deaths are now among the vaccinated.

      https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1416881389396496386:
      Green bars represent the vaccinated; red unvaccinated. Further, the number of severe cases is rising far faster than overall hospitalizations, ending the myth that vaccines stop severe disease.

      There is absolutely no reason to think the US won’t see the same trend within weeks.

      1. the same trend within weeks.

        August 9th I will be able to sail into Canada, unless the scare trends. No word from the US on Canadian crew crossing this way.

        1. At age 60- most (88%) of the severe cases are among the small minority of those who listen to lies and don’t get vaccinated.

          Where is he getting this? The 65+ data he gives doesn’t support it.

          1. And that 65+ data is what matters because it doesn’t jive with what we’ve been told and you choose to believe regarding the extent of protection from the jabs.

  10. Approaching the end of my 3yr lease this Dec. Back when I signed, I thought for sure that sanity would have prevailed within another 3yrs–but apparently not.

    I’m getting increasingly cynical and now regret ever deciding to bubble-sit, now nearly two decades back. Life would have been much simpler if I had never recognized what was happening, and had just kept my house, or bought another immediately.

    I recognize that I’m experiencing severe bubble fatigue/bubble exhaustion/bubble depression.

    2. That happened to me the last time around and it seemed like I missed the boat forever but as they say patience is a virtue. If you are smart you will continue to observe until there is so much blood in the water that there are places where they can’t even give them away at 50% off and then lowball them like a boss. I found a place for 60% off and then drove it down to 80% off. It is now paid for. In retrospect it was totally worth the wait. You need cash to play that game though so save, save, save. At the bottom cash is king.

      1. When credit is tightened asset prices will slide, so yes, having cash for a down payment is important.

        “We no longer have business cycles, we have credit cycles.” —Peter Boockvar

      2. I found a place for 60% off and then drove it down to 80% off.

        Great job! What market? I’m hopeful I can do something similar. Even though I’ve got massive fatigue, I will never buy an overpriced shack.

        1. Eastern TN. I researched the whole country while I was waiting and had a set of parameters that I wanted to hit. As long as you are willing to move to where the values are you can do quite well. Think ‘road less travelled’. We live in a really big country and there are lots of sweet spots if you carefully examine it.

          1. “We live in a really big country and there are lots of sweet spots if you carefully examine it.”

            Agreed. My wife and I prefer small towns too.

            However, we see the older population struggle with the limited health care options. A friend recently sold his beautiful ranch property because his body could no longer endure the physical demands, and none of his adult children wanted anything to do with the place.

    3. “Maybe I was wrong” are among the most difficult words in the English language.

      I would say, you’ve waited this long, at least wait for covid to recede. Covid created lots of suppy shocks, at risk people unwilling to list and expose themselves. Also, there’s been a historic buyer frenzy, characterized as a frenzy by Redfin and various r/Realtor associations. Buyer frenzies give way to (some) satiation, and resumption of regular operations will give people other sources of excitement during the day, other than cruising the real estate listing sites.

      But look on the bright side: in the short term, renting is cheaper than owning. In the long term, it’s not. You’ve probably saved a healthy chunk of change as a result, and there are costs and benefits to either option. Good luck, you’re not the only one in this boat.

      1. Also on the bright side, we did learn about the country, the laws and the financial system actually work. Also, maybe, the Fed is at the limits of stimulus. Maybe.

        But too many powerful people are heavily invested in this current policy regime (low interest rates + stimulus) for very intractable reasons (funding the government, and personal wealth increase) – they started down this road and once you do, as I noted before, it’s like riding the tiger – you can’t get off or you’ll get eaten. Also, I posted a link yesterday showing the top lobbyists and donators to DC politicians. The FIRE sector seems to dwarf everything else. The only thing that will change that is a revolution.

        Organically, population is always increasing. And there are housing runups/bubbles the world over. They’re all running the same monetary playbook. If you google Japan house price index, even with an actually declining population, they’ve still managed to engineer house price increases. So who knows.

        Eventually population will flatten and decline; eventually stimulus will hit a wall (I assume – how much lower can interest rates go, how much more money could they print and inject into the financial sector? I guess see Japan); Could be 5 years, 20 years, 50 years away. Could be some black swan zeitgeist change but I doubt that.

        It’s been very interesting though, and it will continue to be interesting, and darkly amusing.

      2. “renting is cheaper than owning. In the long term, it’s not.”

        Either way, rent or own, one of the most fiscally prudent, yet overlooked and/or avoided caveat(s) to either option is LIVING BELOW ONE’S MEANS.

        In my occupation (20 years) it amazed me watching how people stretch themselves to the limit financially, borrowing money they don’t have, buying stuff they don’t need, chasing happiness (which never arrives) living paycheck to paycheck.

        1. “…people stretch themselves to the limit financially…”

          There used to be risk to the lenders, but with the fed backing their bad behavior it’s all good.

        2. LIVING BELOW ONE’S MEANS.

          That’s the key. Most people can’t see how to do this, but it is actually easy. Profitable even.

      3. I believe the biggest danger is that outfits like Blackrock can now buy housing with printed money. The public, who has to buy with labor, cannot compete. Those without houses may never have a house. And those with houses might be flogged out of them in the name of equity. Welcome to the USSA.

        The same thing is happening with the $300 extra unemployment. The liberals love it. They say “It’s a good thing that people make $15/hr to stay home. It will force businesses to pay a living wage.” That’s pretty rich. A UBI will ensure that the only business is Wal-Mart — maybe. And liberals think that Wal-Mart is the deveil incarnate.

    4. I recognize that I’m experiencing severe bubble fatigue/bubble exhaustion/bubble depression.”

      Fighting the FED and their money printing schemes is tough.

    5. Prime, it might help to remember –

      From CNBC, 2016: “The numbers are daunting if not shocking: $12.3 trillion of money printing, nearly $10 trillion in negative-yielding global bonds, 654 interest rate cuts since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. Those actions have resulted in… a burgeoning global debt problem that remains unresolved, withstood only through the lowest interest rates the world has seen in 5,000 years.”

      What happened to us since 2008 is unprecedented. Absolutely no one could have predicted the Herculean, suicidal, insane, coordinated, unthinkable, unlimited policies that have kept the plates spinning so far and for so long.

      That doesn’t even cover every kind of risk layering aimed at supporting housing specifically – ever-lower interest rates and down payments; ever-higher DTI ratios and loan limits; foreclosure and eviction moratoriums, downpayment and mortgage assistance programs; expanding FHA, VA and Ag loans, the rise of shadow banking; I could go on. All agencies of government, all central banks, all over the world working in concert to keep the market going. If even one of these policies were reversed, would the market hold?

      Every owner out there sitting on a pile of equity or just breaking even has the above policies of staggering scale and number to thank for it. Most have no idea the scorched-earth financial machinations of entire nations it took to keep their little household in the black, or how fragile this cobbled-together structure that supports the market really is.

      Because they don’t know, many attribute their equity gains to their own genius decisions. But just as it was not really their genius decisions that made them house-rich, it was not necessarily your different decisions that made you house-poor.

      The point is: what has happened is far, far bigger than one person and their decision to buy or rent. You didn’t turn housing into a game of Russian roulette. You simply chose not to play.

      Just another way to think about it, FWIW.

    6. I’m getting increasingly cynical

      Hey, Prime! Good to see you.

      I’m with you — recently just wishing I’d bought years ago and avoided putting parts of life on hold, but I also recognize that I’m happy where I am and who knows where that other path would have led (granted, renting let me move for jobs more easily).

      Hope you’re doing well overall.

  11. So , the unelected Rulers of the World , like Gates, Soros and Schwab , the Global Monopolies, Banks, Elite , whoever ,are planning different types of attacks to bring on a One World Order of Dictorship under this criminal regime.
    They even give hints that they will do other destructive things to bring on the Great Reset and the 4 th Industrial Revolution.

    So, just saying because their final goal is that the populations will own nothing and like it, while I suppose they own and control everything, buying real estate might be a risk under these type of conditions along with all the other risks currently.

    1. “… while I suppose they own and control everything …”

      If you can control you won’t need to own.

      Warren Buffet does not own “The Indefensible”, the corporate jet he gets to fly around on, but he does control it. Berkshire Hathaway owns the jet, pays to fuel and maintain the jet, but Warren is the guy who decides who will get to ride in it.

      Same goes for many of our elected and appointed authorities; These people – mortals all – do not own the many and various publically owned facilities they get to exclusively access but they treat them as they do.

      1. Mr Banker,

        If these criminal can pull off a rigged election, a fake Panademic, lockdowns on a global scale, and control and censor whatever they want with their fake news, put Puppets in the White House, Congress and Senate, than they can change laws in accordance with their Agendas, or do anything they want.

        Biden has already labeled over half the Country enemies of the State. If they proceed with this takeover of US as well as other Countries, than what kind of economic systems exist?

  12. One more thought: for a long time, I’ve been thinking of sitting on the sidelines by renting as being “net-neutral” housing, rather than being “long” housing by owning.

    But I think I’ve been wrong about that all along. Bubble-sitting by renting is really more equivalent to being net-short–e.g. every year that housing has gone up and up, my accrued losses increase as well, losses that would become realized if I were to purchase at now-higher prices.

    Net neutral would probably better translate to owning a house, just not more house than you need.

    It was kind of shocking to me that I could have been thinking about this wrong for nearly two decades now.

    1. Owning is not cheap, but it has its benefits. For example, I have tools and other useful things that wouldn’t be compatible with apartment dwelling. However, if your employment skills are in an industry that is being squeezed it is nice to be able to relocate without the hassle of home ownership. And there’s the COVID thing, drought, flooding, etc., that can be “life altering” as everyone heads for the exits at the same time.

      FWIW, I timed my house purchase perfectly, but it was in a small town with limited professional employment opportunities. I did very well in my last job, but I didn’t plan on the “acceptance and inclusion” diversity nonsense leading to an early retirement. I’ve still got a son in engineer classes, and I’m paying for those bills as they arrive, so few other options for the next couple of years.

    2. I see your dilemma. I’ve been lucky that I made the decision decades ago, while attending college, to leave well below my means whether renting or owning. After the 08′ crash, I got out-bid on a couple houses that by now have almost tripled in price. Part of me wants to think that kind of sucks. However, despite being a “lowly renter” over the years, I’ve been consistently living below my means (retired in 2019) and am financially comfortable nonetheless.

      Would I be happier right now if I’d won that bid on one of those houses? Maybe. But, I don’t dwell on it, because, as we both know, things can change, and change quickly. We may very well see a big chunk of the rapid increase in “magic equity” homeowners have experienced over the last several years evaporate into the ether.

      I’ve got the ability to buy a home almost all cash, but I REFUSE to pay a ridiculous price for it. Frankly, I don’t give a sh*t how low rates can lower the monthly payment. When the price is too F’n high, it’s too F’n high.

      At the end of the day, there’s no denying that…for the fiscally disciplined individual, financial freedom, happiness and contentment, can be achieved whether renting or owning.

  13. “At the bottom cash is king.”

    I believe that. What I’m losing faith in ATM is that the Fed will ever let bottoming happen.

    Sounds like you did really well timing it last time, IPF. Do you mind sharing when/where you managed that?

    2. Eastern TN, I was a bitter renter stuck in San Diego. I bought near the lows in 2013 but I’ve been studying bubbles since the dot com era and was reading this blog during the entire last bubble while I was shut out. There is a cycle to all of it and it is roughly 7 up years and 7 down years. You can trace it backwards and see it mostly stays true. We are soon to begin the down years if we haven’t already. I would contend that the top has already passed. There are so many sweet spots in this country if you carefully research it. Think ‘road less travelled’ and you can do really well, there are tons of overlooked areas. Once you fully own your shack you can do just about anything to get by so focus on a path that leads to fast ownership with low taxes and the rest will take care of itself. While it may be too early to think about buying anything now, it’s not too early to save cash or to set your parameters and research this huge country of ours. (it actually takes a lot of time to really look over all the different regions and make a game plan) Channel your cynical disdain and make a war plan for the bottom.

      1. 7 up years and 7 down years

        IIRC, cow weight follows the same cycle.
        There is nothing new under the sun.

  14. The American Academy of Pediatrics is demanding that all children over the age of 2 years old wear face masks at schools and nurseries. Wonder why?!

    https://www.aap.org/en-us/advocacy-and-policy/aap-health-initiatives/commpeds/catch/Pages/Our-Supporters.aspx (emphasis added):

    The [American Academy of Pediatrics Community Access to Child Health (CATCH)] Program is made possible through the generous support of Pfizer, Inc, with additional support from individual donations through the AAP Friends of Children Fund.

  15. What’s on the chuckwagon tonight?

    I got a dozen Ballpark Franks, two tubs of macaroni salad a super size bag of sour patch kids with a bottle of diet Coke.

      1. PS – I meant no disrespect, it just did not sound appealing, especially considering the volume. Hot dogs make me gag. Never did like them.

  16. The time is come for good men to do very bad things to very bad people, you are either part of the solution or you are part of the problem. Pick a side, make a stand.

  18. I see people say cash is king.
    Question: Cash in what form. Under the mattress, lowly 1% savings accounts or Bonds? {What do you mean by Bonds?}

  19. Six Texas House Democrats test positive for Covid-19 in Washington

    By Paul LeBlanc, Rachel Janfaza and Dianne Gallagher, CNN

    Updated 0315 GMT (1115 HKT) July 20, 2021

    Washington (CNN)Another Texas state House Democrat who traveled to Washington, DC, last week has tested positive for Covid-19, an official with the group told CNN on Monday evening, bringing the number of infected legislators to six.

    The lawmakers are part of the group that left Texas, flying from Austin to Washington to break the state House’s quorum and block Republicans from passing a restrictive new voting law. Officials with the group told CNN that all of the lawmakers participating in the quorum break trip are fully vaccinated, including those who have tested positive for Covid-19.

    Now a song from the Covid Choir

    https://youtu.be/r2otdNdnyMA

      1. He’s been discussed. He’s not a registered patent practitioner (agent or attorney); I checked. As a patent attorney, I can’t listen to him. After going a bit down a rabbit hole, I’ve concluded he’s neither qualified nor credible. He and his wife, Kim, are bizarre.

        2. His look and manner are red flags, yet the evil he describes I can believe completely.

          People are swallowing this whole on twitter.

  22. I was talking to a guy today whose daughter was working part time and got laid off in the early days of the virus. She was only taking home like $100 per week at her part time gig. She was getting over $600 per week after she hit the UE rolls, and tells him she’s not going to work again until she has to. This is just wrong.

    1. 46&2
      That’s what happened to my daughter. She was getting $800-900 a week. I couldn’t believe it, and neither could she. She’s a saver, and has no debt and few expenses so now she has close to $60,000 in the bank because she got laid off. Unbelievable.

        1. It’s insane. I don’t know exactly how much came from unemployment, she had some savings before, but still unbelievable. She went back as soon as she was called and felt good about working again.

  23. Now Hannity on Fox news is telling everybody to get vaxxed. Knew he was some deep state mole.

    3. Some of these people like Hannity are just the types that take vaccines. Tucker Carlson seems to be the Guy that’s pushing the envelope the most on giving counter narrative about the vaccines. And you can see how carefully he tries to give the information.

  24. Do you expect the central bankers to keep their foot on the accelerator forever?

    What could stop them?

    1. The Financial Times
      Europe quantitative easing
      ‘Forceful for longer’: Investors bet ECB bond buying is here to stay
      Central bank’s new inflation target sets stage for lengthier period of loose monetary policy
      Most investors expect Christine Lagarde to indicate the ECB will beef up its bond-buying plans beyond the end of its €1.85tn pandemic emergency purchase programme
      Martin Arnold in Frankfurt and Tommy Stubbington in London yesterday

      Investors are betting the European Central Bank’s new strategy means it will keep buying bonds for longer, driving yields in the eurozone lower. But the central bank still has its work cut out to convince markets it can hit its revised inflation target.

      Christine Lagarde is aware of the challenge, and the ECB president told the Financial Times this month that the “proof of the pudding will be in the eating”.

      ECB watchers will get a look at how the new strategy will be put into action on Thursday when the central bank is due to deliver fresh guidance on monetary policy.
      …

  25. Video: Rand Paul Vows To Ask DoJ For Criminal Referral On Fauci After Blistering Exchange

    by Steve Watson
    July 21st 2021, 4:16 am

    Following an explosive argument with Fauci in the Senate Tuesday, Rand Paul later vowed to seek a criminal referral from the Department of Justice, urging that the National Institutes of Health head “has lied to Congress.”

    “He’s been there for 40 years, probably 39 years too long, but he controls all the funding, so people are deathly afraid of him,” Paul said.

    “I get letters from scientists all the time. You can find them. They’re very distrustful of what he’s saying,” Paul continued, adding “They don’t think he’s making sense. They don’t think he’s reading the science accurately, but they’re afraid to speak out because many of them are university scientists and they depend on NIH funds, and to cross him means it’s the last money you’ll ever get.”

    @Breaking911
    BREAKING: Sen. Rand Paul: “I will be sending a letter to the Department of Justice asking for a criminal referral” into Dr. Fauci – https://breaking911.com/if-anybody-is-lying-here-senator-it-is-you-fauci-and-paul-have-heated-exchange-at-senate-hearing/

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/video-rand-paul-vows-to-ask-doj-for-criminal-referral-on-fauci-after-blistering-exchange/

Comments are closed.