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The Most Ignorant People On A Subject Will Be The Least Aware Of Their Own Ignorance

A weekend topic starting with the Journal Record. “Today we dive deeper to better understand the anatomy of a bubble. In Poor Charlie’s Almanack, discussing the need for more reconciliation of psychology and economics, Mr. Charlie Munger cited a study by Colin Camerer of Caltech. In the study, high-IQ students, playing for real money, were caused to pay price A+B for a ‘security’ they knew for sure would turn into A dollars at the end of the game.”

“What follows is Mr. Munger’s assessment: ‘This foolish action occurred because the students were allowed to trade with each other in a liquid market for the security. And some students then paid price A+B because they hoped to unload on other students at a higher price before the day was over. What I will now confidently predict is that, despite Camerer’s experimental outcome, most economics and corporate finance professors who still believe in the ‘hard-form efficient market hypothesis’ will retain their original belief. If so, this will be one more indication of how irrational smart people can be when influenced by psychological tendencies.'”

“So, Mr. Camerer’s study shows that even when participants know with certainty that a ‘security’ is worth A, a speculative bubble can break out into what is, in essence, a game of hot potato. Although the real world does not provide such clear-cut examples, the recent price behavior of ‘meme stocks’ seems to be the best recent real-world analog to the Caltech study.”

“I previously alluded to meme stocks (e.g., GameStop Corp.) in a recent column regarding the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which was initially introduced here in a late December 2020 column in which I drew parallels between poker and investing. The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias that predicts that the most ignorant people on a subject will be the least aware of their own ignorance and, therefore, will overestimate their ability in a given field.”

“Drawing a connection between the Dunning-Kruger Effect and the Caltech study, note that being ignorant on a topic (investing in this case) does not necessarily indicate that you are an individual with an unfortunately low IQ. In fact, the Caltech study specifically calls out that high-IQ students participated. It may follow then that those at the highest risk of falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger Effect are not those with low aptitudes generally, but those that are of generally high aptitude who have been professionally successful.”

“It should be noted that even highly credentialed and experienced investment professionals are not immune to these sorts of psychological pitfalls. If this were not the case, the truly systemic bubbles of recent memory (i.e., the dot-com bubble of the late-1990s and the housing bubble of the mid-2000s) would not have been possible.”

From CNBC. “Stock trading app Robinhood warned of a potential slowdown in trading revenue and new clients as the boom in retail investing starts to decelerate. The slowdown is coming off booming levels. The Menlo Park, California-based free-trading pioneer estimates second-quarter 2021 revenue between $546 million and $574 million. This would be a 129% surge from the $244 million in the second quarter of 2020.”

“However, the company estimates a net income loss between $537 million and $487 million in the second quarter of 2021, compared with a $1.4 billion loss in the first quarter. Robinhood — which offers equity, cryptocurrency and options trading, as well as cash management accounts — benefits from more speculative trading practices from its clients. Options trading accounts for about 38% of revenue while crypto is 17% of revenue. Plus, margin and stock lending trading levels have been elevated in 2021.”

“The company alluded to clients who created accounts around January’s GameStop short squeeze, but perhaps have discontinued trading as the frenzy subsided. ‘We experienced strong growth in new customers during the first six months of 2021,’ the filing said. ‘We do not know whether, over the long term, cohorts comprised of these new customers will have the same characteristics as our prior cohorts. To the extent these new customers do not grow their cumulative net deposits or trading frequency on our platform to the same extent as new customers that joined in prior periods, our ability to expand and grow our relationship with these customers will be impacted.'”

From Barron‘s. “Soaring house prices these days get play on general television news and the front pages of newspapers, not just the business section. Throughout the saga, the Fed has provided tanker cars of liquidity, by slashing its short-term interest rate target to near zero and by buying $120 billion of securities per month since the spring of 2020 to counter the pandemic’s economic impact.”

“A question that many critics want answered is whether the Fed will continue purchasing $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities per month while the housing market is superheated. Powell testified that the impact of MBS buying isn’t significantly different from that of the Fed’s monthly purchases of $80 billion of Treasury securities, because the bond market sees the two sectors as similar.”

“That $40 billion of net monthly mortgage securities purchases actually is an understatement, says Barry Habib, the founder and head of MBS Highway, an advisory firm. After taking into account reinvestment of interest and principal payments that homeowners make on their mortgages, plus cash flows from refinancings, the Fed actually is buying about $100 billion of MBS a month, he contends. He notes that the FOMC’s policy directive now specifies purchases of ‘at least’ those amounts of agency MBS and Treasuries.”

“Builders can’t keep up with demand, as the fiscal third-quarter earnings D.R. Horton, the nation’s biggest builder by volume, suggests. Even though net income per share rose 78%, year over year, topping analysts’ forecasts by 8%, its stock slumped 2% Thursday. Future orders were down, not because of a shortfall in demand, but because the company is holding back sales. ‘Based on the stage of completion of our current homes and inventory, production schedules and capacity, we expect to continue restricting the pace of our sales orders,’ D.R. Horton’s chief financial officer, Bill Wheat, said on the analyst conference call.”

From Clay Today. “Northeast Florida’s housing market desperately needs more homes. In June, the region’s residential market continued its frenzied pace, with low-interest rates and a limited inventory fueling record-high sales prices. June’s median sales price of $301,000 leaped 18% from $255,000 in June 2020. Meanwhile, the average sale price of a home in Clay County and on the First Coast was $373,378, a dramatic 20.7% increase from the year before when the average price was $309,269.”

“‘Many buyers have gone to the sidelines and are continuing to rent or double up with others, as the affordability of homes compared to incomes becomes a bigger issue,’ said Missi Howell, president of the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors. ‘Several builders have slowed production due to uncontrollable and unforeseen but anticipated price increases that may have them building beyond what the market value appraisal could bring.'”

From My Prince George Now in Canada. “89 building permits worth approximately 100-million dollars have been awarded for single and multi-family homes according to city officials. Bob Quinlan with RE/Max Core Realty admits while the city is growing and housing supply needs to be improved, how much our population will increase is still anyone’s guess. ‘When I look at see what is there and I see all the projects going on, I am little concerned that we are going to be overbuilt but that may not be a bad thing.'”

From News.com.au in Australia. “As the RBA continues to insist that rate hikes are not coming ‘for at least three years,’ the reality is arguably quite different. In the words of New Daily columnist and economic commentator Alan Kohler: ‘The RBA has absolutely no idea what’s going to happen. Nobody does.'”

“We are in entirely uncharted waters, with a highly distorted financial system and economy. All supported by $4 billion a week in RBA bond purchases and a predicted federal deficit of almost $2 billion per week. The almost universal consensus among central bankers of the Western world is the current inflationary pressures are transitory – temporary and will pass – therefore justify not raising interest rates for years to come. Broadly speaking, economists generally agree it will be at least 18 months before we begin to see rate hikes.”

“But there is rather large elephant in the room. Does it mean six more months of rapidly rising prices well above central bank inflation targets? Nine months? Or even longer than that? So far it’s a question that central bankers have generally remained tight lipped on, allowing themselves quite a lot of scope to shift their commentary, due to the ambiguity of how they define the word ‘transitory.'”

From Mercer University. “Dr. Antonio Saravia, associate professor of economics at Mercer Univeristy, explains what causes inflation, why it’s worrisome, and what might be coming in the future. Inflation is a ‘monetary phenomenon,’ Dr. Saravia said. ‘If we have more money circulating in the economy, we will have inflation,’ he said. In an effort to pull the country out of a recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve, which is the central bank of the United States, and the federal government injected money into the economy.”

“‘We’re talking about massive, massive amounts of money,’ Dr. Saravia said. ‘On one hand, we receive these checks, and then on the other hand, we have money that is cheap because the interest rate continues to be low. So what do we do as consumers? We spend.'”

“‘The problem is timing,’ he said. ‘During an inflationary process, salaries may not go up as fast as the rest of the prices. They will eventually catch up, but if they lag behind for a period of time, then we may see that our purchasing power goes down.'”

“In addition, consumers should be cautious about making large purchases, like a house, or adding credit card debt while interest rates are low, he said. ‘We are in the middle of a new housing bubble fueled by the low interest rates,’ he said. ‘Don’t just continue to spend and put things on credit because it is cheap at the moment. Eventually, you’re going to have to pay for that.'”

“At some point, the Fed will have to step in to control rising prices by ceasing to print more money and raising the interest rate, Dr. Saravia said. That could be painful, he said. ‘It’s like if you get addicted to something and you’re running with this substance, and all of a sudden you have to do a cold turkey stop,’ he said. ‘You know it’s going to be good for you in the long run, but in the short run, it’s going to be very, very painful.'”

“Ending inflation is an art, and some changes could be done gradually to make it less painful, but Dr. Saravia still predicts that when that happens, the U.S. economy will fall into a short recession. ‘I think we’re going to have to pay for the money printing and the massive stimulus one way or another,’ he said.”

This Post Has 125 Comments
  1. From the Australian article:

    ‘In decades gone by, companies once had vast warehouses filled with stock to ensure that their commitments to retailers or suppliers could be met. But in an age of global trade defined by the “just in time” business model, all of a sudden many companies have found themselves without the raw materials and finished products required to meet demand.’

    ‘After tens of trillions of dollars were pumped into the global economy over the past year, it is perhaps unsurprising that manufacturers, logistics companies and the maritime freight industry are buckling under the strain.’

    ‘The current global manufacturing and logistics network is simply unable to cope with the current demand and there are no quick or easy fixes. In the Pearl River Delta anchorage located south of Hong Kong and the Chinese megacity of Shenzhen, there are currently more container ships waiting to dock than during the height of the impact of the pandemic on China back in February last year.’

    How many people know tens of trillion$ popped up in the past year? It explains some things:

    ‘revenue between $546 million and $574 million. This would be a 129% surge from the $244 million in the second quarter of 2020. However, the company estimates a net income loss between $537 million and $487 million in the second quarter of 2021, compared with a $1.4 billion loss in the first quarter’

    1. “The current global manufacturing and logistics network is simply unable to cope with the current demand and there are no quick or easy fixes.”

      The weaknesses in the global “just-in-time” model put too much reliance on China, and their massive flooding crisis has exposed their critical infrastructure vulnerabilities. Other countries will likely fill the void.

    2. “Dr. Antonio Saravia, associate professor of economics at Mercer Univeristy, explains what causes inflation, why it’s worrisome, and what might be coming in the future.“

      I went grocery shopping yesterday and was hit with two price increases in one day. Gas went up another 5 cents at the station on the corner and red onions at the cheap Asian grocery store went from 59 cents to 69 cents. I went to a Vietnamese restaurant last week and had a chance to chat with the owner. He said business is still way down and his per unit supply costs have increased by 20-30% in the last year

  2. ‘we expect to continue restricting the pace of our sales orders…Several builders have slowed production due to uncontrollable and unforeseen but anticipated price increases that may have them building beyond what the market value appraisal could bring.’

    Not the first time we’ve seen this. So why don’t they build more? Fear of cancellations? If it’s red hotcakes they could just sell for even more red hotcakes! Maybe they aren’t buying it.

  3. ‘June’s median sales price of $301,000 leaped 18% from $255,000 in June 2020. Meanwhile, the average sale price of a home in Clay County and on the First Coast was $373,378, a dramatic 20.7% increase from the year before when the average price was $309,269’

    I’m not going to say this part of Florida is a sh$thole cuz I’ve never been there. But like Albuquerque, there isn’t any “story” to justify these increases nor prices. It’s not going to hold. Which makes me wonder if the central banks/guberments are purposefully setting these markets up for a crash. We constantly see psychological manipulation and have for over a year, worldwide. There’s a reason behind it.

    1. “Which makes me wonder if the central banks/guberments are purposefully setting these markets up for a crash. We constantly see psychological manipulation and have for over a year, worldwide. There’s a reason behind it.”

      In my view the reason behind the psychological manipulation is the real estates market run up is one of the major factors that keeps the economy humming.

      The major economies of the world have been financialized; EARNED money is able to be generated via the expenditure of labor because BORROWED money allows it to be so. Take away the borrowing and earned money will fall of because a financial depression will ensue.

      The way to keep the current borrowed money economies humming is to keep on with the borrowing. Common sense has it that this condition can not go on forever but the guys who are running things aren’t in it for forever; they are living in the present and are operating in a survival mode.

      1. This Covid thingy gives those Big Club guys (a club of which you are not a member) a license to do whatever they want in the guise of saving humanity. From their viewpoint this is perfect: They can screw us and become honored as hero’s for doing so.

        I like it.

      2. “…are operating in a survival mode.”

        Agreed. There are likely many professionally quiet, sober minded people sprinkled throughout these various economic committees who are scared for their children’s future standard of living.

        1. Anyone who is paying attention is afraid for their children’s future standard of living.

    2. “Which makes me wonder if the central banks/guberments are purposefully setting these markets up for a crash.”

      I have an alternative theory, which I will call Inflation Laundering. The Fed has a schedule of 2% annual inflation in the dollar, which can get knocked off schedule by economic downturns that slow down the pace of inflation. To make up for lost time, they use Quantitative Easing to drive up asset prices, creating wealth effects which put money into asset HODLers’ pockets at a time when labor market income is squeezed by an economic slowdown. The extra cash getting spent has the combined effects of maintaining consumer demand and preventing deflation. And ultimately, perhaps with a little support for asset prices in case they ever begin to revert to their earlier levels, inflation will eventually pick up to above 2% for a period of time, bringing consumer prices and wages back in line with asset prices, but all at a higher level that gets inflation back on schedule.

      This is central planning at its best!

      1. “Inflation Laundering”

        That’s a great phrase and really cool idea. It’s true a lot of luxury goods rose in price very quickly post-2009. People in the art market around that time were very smug about how prices bounced back and resumed their bubble track so quickly. Inflation laundering makes a lot of sense.

    3. But like Albuquerque, there isn’t any “story” to justify these increases nor prices. It’s not going to hold. Which makes me wonder if the central banks/guberments are purposefully setting these markets up for a crash.

      The Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate’s engineered boom/bust cycles are the most efficient means of transferring the wealth and property of the middle class to the Fed’s oligarch accomplices.

    4. My theory is that central planners have been pushing bubbles to such extremes because they think that the higher the starting point, the less harmful the crash will be, and the easier it will be to spark a new bubble on the ruins of the old one. The game is to prevent true price discovery at all costs.

      All you have to do is look at some price histories from the 1990s in CA. A place that was $200k in the 1990s is now $2mil. It would take a 90% crash to go back to the 1990s price, which central planners think unlikely due to their own normalcy bias. Even a 50% crash, which media and politicians would likely deem catastrophic, would only mean a drop from $2mil to $1mil. Then, as they did before, central planners think they can “rescue” us and build another bubble on top of that still bubbly $1mil.

  4. On the topic of ignorance, this from the Epoch Times:

    ‘Almost a year’s rainfall fell in three days on Zhenzhou, the capital city of China’s central Henan province between July 17–20, inundating reservoirs and flooding the underground system for the subway and trains.’

    ‘Many of Zhengzhou’s water reservoirs, including Changzhuang, Guojiazui, and Jialu River, were filled to overflowing. Zhengzhou’s railways, highways, and civil aviation traffic were severely affected. A video posted on Twitter by Radio Free Asia showed that the city became a lake within four hours.’

    ‘According to Zhengzhou’s local meteorological bureau, it claimed the city’s three-day downpour has reached a new precipitation record of 617.1 mm (26.4 inches). Among them, hourly and single-day precipitation exceeded the 60-year record since Zhengzhou was established in 1951. The average annual rainfall in Zhengzhou is 640.8 mm (25.2 inches), almost equivalent to precipitation in these three days.’

    ‘Although the CCP claimed that the rainfall was “once in 5,000 years,” it is unknown where that data came from, given that China’s precipitation records only go back to 1951.’

    ‘In an interview with The Epoch Times reporter, Wang Weiluo, a Chinese hydraulic expert living in Germany, said that the flood in Zhengzhou, Henan was manmade and not caused by the weather.’

    ‘Zhengzhou is located in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. All water in the Yellow River passes through the dam of Sanmenxia, ​​and the floodgates are manually controlled. Sanmenxia is a dam located a little more than 60 miles upriver from Zhengzhou. There are also many reservoirs located in different parts of Zhengzhou that are also manually controlled.’

    “The operators can control how much water it discharges. Therefore, there are no natural floods in Zhengzhou; they are artificial,” Wang said. “[The authorities] decide how much water they discharge—depending on how critical they feel about the reservoirs. The more they discharge the water, the greater the danger to the people living close to the downstream. As for how many people will die, it doesn’t matter to [the CCP]; they either don’t report it or underreport it, there has never been a factual report of the casualties.”

    ‘The Epoch Times interviewed Mr. Li, a Zhengzhou resident on July 21, who said that the water at the center of Zhengzhou where he lives had receded entirely the day after the devastating flood. He said that he had seen floods since childhood, and it would usually take at least three or four days for the water to recede if a village or a city was flooded by heavy rain.’

    “But now the water has receded right away. … I don’t think the waterlogging is a result of natural rainfall,” Li said.’

    ‘Wang also suggested that it is difficult for people to understand the full picture of the disaster from a fragment of the information reported by the CCP.’

    “You won’t get the complete picture of what really transpired when [the CCP] doesn’t provide any real information. And if people don’t understand the whole situation, they don’t even know where to run [when the flood comes].” Wang added.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/deadly-flood-inundates-zhengzhou-city-trapping-people-underground-in-subway-and-on-trains_3915795.html

    How many times a day are we told what we aren’t allowed to know, on very important issues?

    According to the CCP’s official announcement, Zhengzhou’s Changzhuang Reservoir had already begun to discharge water downstream at 10:30 a.m. on July 20. But the announcement was not made known to the public until 12 hours after the discharge. The city was flooded in hours after the reported discharge had started.

      1. Transparency in China has been put before a firing squad, or it is in jail waiting for the next ammo delivery.

    1. I read that the government did not warn people of the discharge because that would make the damages their responsibility. Better not to warn and call it an act of nature. What a place!

      1. Sounds to me like their CCP central planners f____d up in a way that will haunt their country for decades to come. The 8% GDP growth enabled by an ongoing manic construction boom was great while it lasted, but now a large swath of their population lies in the path of future flooding disasters.

        What a place, indeed!

        1. July 23, 2021 2:23 AM PDT
          Last Updated 3 days ago
          China
          Zhengzhou floods serve China’s urban planners deadly warning
          David Stanway
          4 minute read
          A man sits on a stranded vehicle on a flooded road following heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou, Henan province, China July 22, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo

          SHANGHAI, July 23 (Reuters) – The catastrophic floods that struck the central city of Zhengzhou during the past week have given China’s urban planners a foretaste of future disasters as climate experts reckon the country had better learn to live with record-breaking rainfall.

          Official data shows about 98% of China’s 654 major cities are vulnerable to flooding and waterlogging, with rapid growth in recent decades creating urban sprawls that covered floodplains with impermeable concrete.

          At least 51 people were killed in Zhengzhou, many of them drowning in a subway system as the deluge on July 20 dumped 800-900 millimetres of rainfall in what was described by Chinese media as a “once in a thousand year” event.

          “We can’t verify whether this is ‘once in a thousand years’, said Zhou Jinfeng, Secretary-General of the China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation (CBCGDF), a non-government group.

          “But because of global climate change, the rainfall statistics will continue to break new records in the future.”

          Almost two-thirds of China’s 1.4 billion people live in cities compared with a third two decades ago, and coping with future calamities will depend on building infrastructure, most notably flood prevention and drainage systems, experts say.

          Currently, many cities rely on the height and strength of dykes as a first line of defence.

          “We know these big events are going to come along, and just don’t know when,” James Griffiths, a hydrologist at New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said.

          1. Fyi, 850 millimetres = 85 centimetres = 33.5 inches.

            I guess it’s not completely outside the realm of possibility to rain that much in one day, but it does test the imagination to contemplate it.

    2. depending on how critical they feel about the reservoirs.

      So this implies that either there WAS enough rainfall that they were forced to discharge (without warning), or they had some concern about the dam. Not sure which.

      1. without warning

        Reportedly, the Dam did warn the local government. The local government did not warn the residents.

  5. This is an article written by Real Journalists.

    New York Times — They Waited, They Worried, They Stalled. This Week, They Got the Shot (7/24/2021):

    “The U.S. vaccine rollout has plateaued and the course of the coronavirus pandemic in this country may depend on how many people are ultimately swayed to get vaccinated.”

    https://archive.is/FeC2F

    Note the use of the Archive website to bypass article paywall and not generate clicks or revenue for globalist media.

    Anecdotal: there are more people wearing masks in Denver now than there were a week ago. At the grocery store, walking alone outside, driving alone, all of the above.

    And another plug for the only Sub-Reddit worth reading:

    https://old.reddit.com/r/NoNewNormal/

    1. “…the only Sub-Reddit worth reading:”

      I stop by “/r/survivinginfidelity” about once a week to check up on the house poor cucks who never saw it coming.

    2. Anecdotal: there are more people wearing masks in Denver now than there were a week ago. At the grocery store, walking alone outside, driving alone, all of the above.

      And Dumver is what, 80% vaccinated?

      Sure seems like they don’t have much faith in the clot shot.

      1. You know who the CNN-watching morons are. Was in the gym today, and saw maniacal Fraudci on CNN under the banner “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated”. LOLS.
        Yup, i’m like the walking dead. Watch out for my zombieness. Might eat yer brains.

    3. I’m seeing more masks here too. I’m doubtful the masks, or social distancing or even being outdoors, will prevent infection as it did for Alpha. Delta just sheds too much virus. So maybe I’ll just go maskless and hope for a positive and mild case.

      You can buy the Abbot 15-minute tests at Walgreens. They cost about $10/test, but it saves the hassle of finding a test site. The tests detect Delta at an equivalent of up to CT ~30.

      1. “hope for a positive and mild case.”

        Oh for goodness sake. There are doctors all over the country that prescribe IVM and HCQ by phone if you get covid. These can be effective when taken early; a lot more effective than *hoping* for a mild case.

        Just because the government and mainstream medicine has decided to engage in mass murder by withholding and demonizing therapeutics doesn’t mean you have to wait around to become a victim of it with nothing but hope and statistics and tylenol.

        1. Thank you for the info. I started taking 5000 IU vitamin D Fall 2019 and I still do. If I have get any symptoms, I have a few rapid-antigen tests to confirm, plus I have a nice stock of zinc and elderberry and quercetin. I even have the horse paste, but I wouldn’t chance it unless things get bad. So I figure I’m in decent shape.

          1. Funny me, I’d just have a telemedicine visit with a doctor found via the link I provided and have the appropriate 3 stages of medications sent to my door.

          2. I’m going to order the medications if I get any variant of Covid. I’m in California so I can’t depend on the providers giving the med protocol that works in this blue State.
            Dr McCullough said in one of his tapes that if you gargle a couple times a day with Listerine, it can reduce the risk of Covid development. He said in summary that the Dental business has always known this.
            Also, I heard another Dr. say that 700 milligrams of Apple petin daily might dissolve the spike protein from the vaccine. That Doctor said they were using this to get rid of radioactive waste damage . Just throwing it out there, you can research it if you want , I have no idea, never taken the stuff, don’t know what the research has been.

  6. Politico — Californians tired of doing their part during triple-digit heat (7/23/2021):

    “For years, state officials have counted on residents to rescue the electric grid from collapse by sparing their energy use on the most blistering of days. But during a brutal July heat wave, Californians largely ignored repeat calls for conservation.

    Many things go wrong for the system when temperatures soar, heightening the risk of rolling blackouts in the weeks before Gov. Gavin Newsom’s September recall election. And state officials, under crushing pressure to keep the lights on in the meantime, now worry they have lost a key arrow in their quiver as heat waves continue to hammer Western states.

    “I think we’re not taking it that seriously,” said Severin Borenstein, a member of the California grid operator’s board of governors. “This is not a mechanism that we can rely on as a primary mechanism for dealing with the bad situation that we’re in.”

    California’s awkward transition to renewable energy points to the kinds of challenges that could complicate President Joe Biden’s ambitious climate agenda. As states add more solar energy, for example, they rely more heavily on fossil fuels in the evening after the sun sets and demand comes back on the system.”

    https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/07/23/california-show-conservation-fatigue-in-the-face-of-power-cut-threat-1388946

    Cue up the “Muh World’s Fifth Largest Economy” narratives. If you live in a state that can not provide consistent electricity to its residents in the 21st century, you live in a sh*thole.

    1. temperatures soar, heightening the risk of rolling blackouts in the weeks before Gov. Gavin Newsom’s September recall election. And state officials, under crushing pressure to keep the lights on
      As I understand it CA can’t keep the lights on right now. (Or may not be able to soon) and want to do away with fossil fuels. So how do they solve this energy problem? They mandate 100% all electric cars by 2035.
      OK, but CA also has a water shortage. How do they solve that while getting rid of fossil fuels and keeping the lights on and cars charged?? Ah, great Desalination plants. However:
      Desalination requires vast amounts of energy, which in some places is currently provided by fossil fuels.
      So how can CA possibly keep the A/C on, demand 100% “lectric” cars and run huge desalination plants while shutting down all the Gas power plants? I would love to know if anyone has actually run the calculation on how much energy CA will need and where it will come from to meet these clean energy goals. I can’t believe they have a clue.

      1. Stupid people acting in consort create a mob dynamic that is impossible to stop.

        It happens a lot in politics!

    2. a state that can not provide consistent electricity…

      TX would like a word.

      CA hasn’t had any rolling blackouts so far. They do them in the fall / fire season. It isn’t terribly convenient but at least PG&E tells people in advance of it happening, and how long it’ll be down (usually 24-48 hours). That gives people time to prep.

      Unlike in TX where it went out unexpectedly during a cold snap that everyone knew was coming and people froze to death in their homes. Now that’s a shithole.

      1. TX is a prime example of what happens when you let energy pirates financialize your power grids. The politicians who signed off on that deal should be sued for everything they own, then thrown into prison for life.

      2. looks like Dr. Saravia will not be invited to shiny-faced realtor Julie Jalone’s next wine tasting limo tour, complete with pics & write-ups for society showboating.

      3. TX would like a word.
        And New England could run into issues due to lack of pipelines as has occurred before.

        But CA, and CA alone is planning to:
        1)Increase Electric Cars (Mandatory)
        2) Address the H2O shortage with more Desalination plants
        and
        3) Replace ALL fossil fuels with renewables.
        Just how does the math work? Again, maybe the CA analysts have determined how much more “CLEAN” energy, and at what cost, will be needed to replace all the current ICE cars, plus how much more CLEAN energy will be need to replace the current fossil fuels running the Desalination plants along with any incremental energy needs from more desalination plants and finally, how and where are they going to get the CLEAN energy to replace the current fossil fuel power plants to”keep the lights. ”
        My best guess is they don’t have a clue where that CLEAN energy will come from or what the incremental cost will be. Of course, I guess if you triple the cost of electricity you might get bragging rights for conservation.

        1. Just how does the math work?

          The architects of the plan know the math doesn’t work. They intend to collapse western civilization through artificial scarcity. But they have to convince the plebs that there is a rainbow at the end of desolation boulevard.

        2. Maybe CA plans to drive millions of the middle class out of the state and save energy that way / Homeless don’t use much electricity or water.

          1. You’re not far off. But instead of putting us on the street, they would pack us into tiny soviet-style flats where we would live in the pods where we didn’t use much energy, we would eat the bugs, everything we need would be delivered by drone, we would own nothing, and we would be happy.

            *sigh* glad I made it to the beach last week before things went to f*ck. How long will a boardwalk full of small business survive in such an environment?

          2. Don’t forget the shutdown of both the So Cal and Nor Cal Nuclear plants. A limitless supply of clean, SAFE, power. If you shut them down at least have a plan to replace them with something generations newer.

    3. It’s only a matter of time before Tesla owners in CA start getting their tires slashed. Get rid of the EVs, and this electricity problem solves itself.

    4. ‘ Gov. Gavin Newsom’s September recall election’

      A very ethically ran recall election I am sure.

          1. 14 years is a long time

            Very true! maybe new tech unknown as of today will save the planet, who knows.

          2. I was thinking the mandate could be removed.

            As blackouts become more common and longer, that is a possibility. Or, those who can afford it install backup generators and/or solar panels in their homes. Pricey solutions.

          3. solar panels

            That’s our plan. If only the housing bubble would deflate a little bit faster.

  7. Tony Podesta Is Back and Lobbying for Chinese Tech Company Huawei
    BACK IN BUSINESS

    Corbin Bolies
    Published Jul. 23, 2021 12:14PM ET

    Former Democratic lobbyist Tony Podesta, who shut down his previous lobbying firm amid accusations of nefarious conduct, is back in business and has a new client: Huawei, the Chinese tech company with close ties the Chinese government. Politico reports that Huawei has hired Podesta, 77, as a consultant, aiming to help nurture its relationship with the Biden administration. Huawei has faced a host of legal challenges in recent years, including Justice Department charges under the RICO Act and charges against its chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou. Podesta, who’s made a name for himself for his roster of big clients, took a hiatus from lobbying after Special Counsel Robert Mueller scrutinized his firm’s connections to Paul Manafort’s work in Ukraine.

    Nonetheless, Podesta told The New York Times earlier this month that he wanted to reemerge onto the scene. “I don’t want to recreate what I had, but I sort of miss working, and art alone doesn’t sustain me, because I love politics,” he said.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/tony-podesta-returns-to-lobby-for-chinese-tech-company-huawei

  8. “Well, let me finish the answer. Soon in the sense that I do not tell any scientist what they should do. I do not interfere, and so they are doing the examinations now, the testing now, and making the decision now. When they are ready, when they’ve done all the scientific that needs to be done to determine, children at ages three, four, five, six, seven, and eight, they, in fact all have different makeups. They’re developing. They’re trying to figure out whether or not there’s a vaccination that would affect one child at such and such an age and not another child. That’s underway. Just like the other question that’s logical, and I’ve heard you speak about it, because you … I’m not being solicitous, but you’re always straight up about what you’re doing, and the question is whether or not we should be in a position where you … Why can’t the experts say, “We know that this virus is, in fact is going to be … Or, excuse me. We know why all the drugs approved are not temporarily approved, but permanently approved. That’s underway, too. I expect that to occur quickly.”

    – Chinese Installed Fake President Jo Xiden

  9. “Our” corrupt, globalist-captured DoJ is giving NY governor Andrew Cuomo a pass on his criminally negligent handling of COVID-19 in nursing facilities. This is my shocked face.

    DOJ declines to investigate Cuomo’s handling of covid-19 in nursing homes

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/doj-declines-to-investigate-cuomo-s-handling-of-covid-19-in-nursing-homes/ar-AAMwGwL

    The U.S. Justice Department announced Saturday that it will not conduct a civil investigation into New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D)’s handling of coronavirus cases in state nursing facilities.

    In a letter sent to New York Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) on Friday, Deputy Assistant Attorney General Joe Gaeta wrote that the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division had requested information on “nursing facilities run by, or for, the State of New York” last August. After a review, the letter stated that the department would decline to open an investigation into any public nursing facility in the state based on violations of the Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act.

  10. Anyone buying real estate in a Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned urban dystopia better factor in the costs and risks of escalating vibrant cultural enrichment.

    NYC robbery suspect seen rifling through unconscious man’s pockets after brazen daylight beat down

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/nyc-police-brooklyn-robbery-suspect-beat-man-unconscious

    Disturbing video released by police Saturday shows a man punch and stomp on another man’s head in a brazen daylight attack in New York City, knocking the victim unconscious and robbing him.

    NYPD Crime Stoppers shared surveillance video of the 9 a.m. attack Saturday near Pitkin Avenue and Barbey Street in Brooklyn.

    The video shows a Black man wearing a mask and a gray hoodie throwing several punches at the victim, who appears to try to fight back before being knocked to the ground.

    1. “Disturbing video released by police Saturday shows a man punch and stomp on another man’s head in a brazen daylight attack in New York City”

      How law abiding citizens walk around any of these defund the police Democrat run sh*thole cities with these don’t give a damn mask and hoodie wearing no bail to worry about criminal thug no justice no peace class valedictorians and not have one of these in their pocket is beyond me.

      Fox 479 Black G10 Folding Karambit – Emerson Wave

      https://www.karambit.com/shop/karambits/fox-karambits/fox-479-black-g10-folding-karambit-emerson-wave/

      I am partial to the grip shown at 0:22 where I hopefully have the video started. With a little practice it is easy to deploy the blade as you pull it from your pocket. Good backhand self defense grip (just above knee to take away attackers mobility, Achilles tendon would stop thug stomping, not hard to figure out how to stop a chokehold).

      The Fox 479 Karambit Cut Tests & Emerson Wave Demo

      https://youtu.be/d4sAvwJS6WE?t=22

          1. “I prefer the serrated Spyderco”

            Blade looks good (or nasty depending on your point of view) but I like the one handed Emerson Wave feature on the Fox 479 which can be mastered fairly easily. Of course you have to be very careful and deliberate at first because it is an extremely sharp blade.

            This is not the Fox knife but shows the Emerson Wave feature .
            https://youtu.be/f0o4cYU4OGk?t=17

  11. Zillow sez my parents’ place, which we sold six years ago, has doubled in value from what we sold it for. This is located four miles due east of the Ferguson BLM riot zone.

    This bubble price runup seems to be the most pervasive yet!

      1. Lol! Think of an area that went from 100% white to 95% black over a fifty year period. Wages did not go up, because as everyone knows, whitey unfairly earns higher wages.

        When we were getting ready to sell, we had real estate investors knocking on the door trying to get us to cut them a deal.

    1. I’m streaming the Sunday morning political talk shows (on C-SPAN Radio, no clicks or revenue given to globalists), and some of the guests are advocating vaccine apartheid, and none of the other guests or hosts are questioning them.

      Colored people drinking fountains, sit in the back of the bus, and coming soon, a new Constitutional amendment that will only count unvaccinated residents as 3/5 of a person.

      It’s the globalist way.

      1. The only virus in history that requires round the clock advertisement to remind you of it’s existence.

    2. The med protocols these Drs developed , if treated early, are the solution . Any more suppression of meds that work would be wrong.
      As long as you have these talking heads lying and all saying the same scripted garbage, the people will be mislead over life and death matters.
      Seems to me that the vaccine has such a short term scope of protection that its not even worth it .
      And, if vaccines create the mutations than that Scientist that said months ago that vaccines weren’t advisable during a Panademic was spot on.
      The safety of the vaccines wasn’t really discussed in this interview , but that’s a major issue that doesn’t seem to stop the agenda of take the jab and don’t ask questions.
      Unreal. Thanks for posting

      1. the vaccine has such a short term scope of protection that its not even worth it .

        According to the data, protection against symptoms is waning (maybe), but protection against hospitalization and death seems to be holding up. That’s enough for them to keep pushing the jab. But that’s just the Pfizer jab. J&J data says that antibody neutralization increases with time, not wanes. Jury is still out.

        1. It depends on what narrative data your going by oxide.
          But, a thought occurred to me , that in the first wave of the Panademic, the extremely weak got wiped out, especially since they were deprived of med treatments that worked.
          So the remaining might be a bit stronger if they have survived so far and its possible that they got a minor case of Covid. So, you can’t really say what factors kept this current older group from ending up at deaths door yet.
          And if they are finally applying some life saving med treatments, that they weren’t before, that could be responsible for a decrease in death numbers, rather than the vaccine.
          I like the med treatment for the elderly anyway because I don’t think a lot of older people are strong enough to take the vaccine, and they have had the most adverse reaction to the jabs, that they are trying to hide.

  12. “Although the real world does not provide such clear-cut examples, the recent price behavior of ‘meme stocks’ seems to be the best recent real-world analog to the Caltech study.”

    Are lumber futures or cryptocurrencies technically considered to be ‘meme stocks’? Or is there something fundamentally different about these other asset types that went from bubble to bust in the first half of 2021?

    1. the recent price behavior of ‘meme stocks’ seems to be the best recent real-world analog to the Caltech study

      Confounding factor: the Wall Street Bets retail investors didn’t lose money because they were carried away by some mania. They lost money deliberately just to stick it to the man, so to speak.

      I’m sure it’s something that Caltech didn’t think of, and why would they; who wants to deliberately lose money. But consider that there were hundreds of thousands of WSB retail investors, they were only losing $300-$1000 each, and they had all just gotten stimmy checks. (And IMO, the fact that is was GME had significant influence. Those WSB retail investors grew up on GME, and I’m sure some of that shorting was revenge, i.e.: how dare these hedgies make billions off of poor GME. If it had been a company that made, say, bubble wrap or grew tomato plants, I don’t think we would have seen the same level of diamond hands.)

    1. If it means that taxpayers will subsidize electric vehicle owners to charge their vehicles from burning coal (see also California article posted above), then yes, it will pass.

      And I will be happy to come install your home electric vehicle charger (charged with electricity from burning coal), except that now your installation invoice will include a $1,000 administrative Green New Deal service fee.

      1. Self-combusting electric cars are for DebtDonkeys and those who can’t perform simple math.

      2. “…charged with electricity from burning coal…”

        And is it safe to assume that no filthy fossil fuel will ever be used in the manufacture, delivery, or disposal of one of these Mean Clean Green Machines?

    1. If MMT really worked, then why not just instantly make everybody a billionaire? What’s the problem?

        1. There’s a part one if you’re interested. Use the last link and click on Bannons War Room to find it. The interviews jump around because of technical problems. This is the most relaxed interview (not just visually) that I’ve seen with Dr. Malone.

  13. FDA is taking away EUA on CDC’s PCR test as it did not pass peer review.
    But this is the kicker. It can still be used until Dec. 31,2021 so they have amble time for a replacement.

    So it took 18 months to pull a fake test, , and they get another 6 months to use the bum test.
    What’s wrong with this picture?

    Think of all the people that got misdiagnosed by the fake test that died or were damaged . Think about how they declared cases for a Panademic, or a death count based on this inaccurate irate test.
    Now I don’t know if this is going to be their scape goat for their fraud, but its not believable . Unreal

    1. FYI, they aren’t pulling ALL of the PCR tests in general, just the specific one developed by the CDC (weren’t those the botched test kits back in the day?). Many many other brands of PCR tests are available. So, sorry, your narrative about pulling ALL of PCR because they are ALL bad is just that: a narrative.

      Press release for withdrawing EUA for CDC PCR test:
      https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

      Table of all of the other approved PCR tests any lab can use:
      https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/in-vitro-diagnostics-euas-molecular-diagnostic-tests-sars-cov-2

      1. The question is how much was that test used.
        The question is how accurate are the ones that remain.
        This has been a big complaint on my part that they had bogus tests from day one with this Panademic , testing people who weren’t sick, etc.
        Doesn’t matter anyway the test isn’t going to be revoked for another 6 months and its already done 18 months of damage. The testing is a big deal .

      2. So, sorry, your narrative about pulling ALL of PCR because they are ALL bad is just that: a narrative.

        He never said ALL. He said CDC. Your reading comprehension sucks and this isn’t the only example.

        1. I know I never said all was pulled. But, as you know the tests have been a big complaint on my part , with all this testing of people who weren’t sick.
          And so now that the nuts are calling for constant PCR testing of the unvaccinated to prove they don’t have Covid, how accurate a test it is important.
          This is medical tyranny that you would be forced to prove your not sick, if you don’t want to take their questionable new technology vaccine.
          As far as I’m concerned, the vaccinated are posing a risk to me at this point. I bet the blood supply has been tainted by now by the vaccinated.
          To to degree that a critical mass doesn’t go along with this outrageous harm to humanity , is what will stop it. And they better start working on protocols to undue any damage they has caused these innocent people who have been damaged or compromised by the shots.

          1. I bet the blood supply has been tainted by now by the vaccinated.

            That crossed my mind as well.

          2. how accurate a test it is important

            Based on my professional experience working for a nucleic acid diagnostics company, I believe that they are designed to be specific to SARS-CoV-2. I recently looked at Roche’s Instructions for Use and confirmed that. Roche is a diagnostics giant. That said, I also believe that the PCR tests are being misused for diagnostic and clinical purposes. The technology is so sensitive you can detect a virus that’s been cleared.

    1. RR,
      My understanding is that depending on where the cycles are set is what determines false positive or not.
      If they have more pinpointing type tests, that’s great, but they probably don’t use those until you have landed in the ICU. After all , wouldn’t they need to determine if you have Covid verses pneumonia for instance.
      And , that testimony by Dr McCullough about how they were giving no treatment for months is just mindblowing.
      They have lost all credibility for me , but I wasn’t thrilled with them before Covid.
      I have known three people in my life that were diagnosed with cancer and it turned out to not be true.

      1. RR,
        Get a load of this story.
        My own twin brother, when he was a teenager was diagnosed with bone cancer of the leg. As it turned out, after they operated with intent to do a possible amputation , guess what they discovered?
        He has a broken leg he didn’t know he had, and it set wrong. No cancer , they just reset the broken leg.
        Another person I know was diagnosed with lung cancer. Turned out it was a bunch of scar tissue that they mistook for cancer. Another lady I know was diagnosed with breast cancer, and that also ended up being false.
        Just saying.

        1. What years were these? Diagnostics have gotten much better, although lung cancer typically isn’t diagnosed until it’s too late. In the last 13 years, I’ve lost family and friends to kidney, lung, colon and prostate cancers. Other family members have survived testicular, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and breast cancer.

          1. I had to wind down my biotech startup at the end 2019 for a myriad of reasons. We had a detailed business plan and patent application for the development of an antibody therapeutic directed to a cell type associated with cancer, autoimmune and infectious diseases.

          2. Well, I have no doubt about your knowledge. And I don’t throw out the entirety of medical science, I’m just concerned with the part that the benefit doesn’t out way risk and Big Pharmacy corruption.
            The medical tyranny is a nightmare to me.

  14. Video: Tucker Carlson Harassed By Unhinged Man, Called “Worst Human Being”

    Infowars.com
    July 25th 2021, 11:20 am

    Tucker Carlson drives the left absolutely crazy.

    For example, the Fox News host recently went shopping at a fly fishing depot when an unhinged Montana man named Dan Bailey and his friend with a camera confronted him over his news coverage.

    “Dude, you are the worst human being known to mankind,” Bailey told Carlson inches from his face as the friend recorded the encounter.

    “I appreciate that,” Carlson responded.

    As Bailey continued to melt down into a diatribe of leftist talking points in the middle of the store, Carlson whispered, “Settle down, son,” and walked away.

    Bailey told Carlson not to call him “son” before the video ends.

    The caption included on Bailey’s Instagram account where he uploaded the video reads, “It’s not everyday you get to tell someone they are the worst person in the world and really mean it! What an a—! This man has killed more people with vaccine misinformation, he has supported extreme racism, he is a fascist and does more to rip this country apart than anyone that calls themselves an American.”

    Comments 102

    9 hours ago
    A most interesting development in this story, Dan Bailey was part of theAsia Foundation which is a CIA proprietary. So it seems that the NSA is retaliating via the CIA… An old Stasi tactic called zersetsung… Since this is out there it seems that the deepstate wanted to make a clear threat.

    https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1419146293415354368?s=20

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/video-tucker-carlson-harassed-by-unhinged-man-called-worst-human-being/

    1. Zersetzung
      From Wikipedia

      Zersetzung (pronounced [t͡sɛɐ̯ˈzɛt͡sʊŋ], German for “decomposition”) is a psychological warfare technique used by the Ministry for State Security (Stasi) to repress political opponents in East Germany during the 1970s and 1980s. Zersetzung served to combat alleged and actual dissidents through covert means, using secret methods of abusive control and psychological manipulation to prevent anti-government activities.

      Stasi used operational psychology and its extensive network of between 170,000[2] and over 500,000[3][4] informal collaborators (inoffizielle Mitarbeiter) to launch personalized psychological attacks against targets to damage their mental health and lower chances of a “hostile action” against the state.[

      The use of Zersetzung is well documented due to Stasi files published after East Germany’s Wende, with several thousands or up to 10,000 individuals estimated to have become victims,[7]:217 and 5,000 of whom sustained irreversible damage.[8] Special pensions for restitution have been created for Zersetzung victims.

      The goal of Zersetzung is the fragmentation, paralysis, disorganization, and isolation of the hostile and negative forces, in order to preventatively impede the hostile and negative activities, to largely restrict, or to totally avert them, and if applicable to prepare the ground for a political and ideological reestablishment.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung

    2. I saw this earlier. Tucker handles himself quite well and even laughs at the camera when he sees the friend recording it.

  15. Ok, in spite of being a layman, regarding the mysterious world of invisible enemies and medicine, common sense tells you Big Pharmacy corrupted the system and they want forced injections of their latest technology.
    You don’t have any reasonable protection and safety regarding what they want to inject.
    Doesn’t matter that the vaccines are creating mutations, which will require booster shot after booster shot. That’s why the big quest to get 70% vaccinated. No different than getting people addicted to dope. And no doubt they want to vaccinate the young and get them dependent on forever booster jabs. Never mind that the jabs don’t pass reasonable safety standards, like s dope dealer they got you hooked and medical tyranny will rule your life.
    They are deliberately creating a monster of vaccine dependent herd immunity, when it wasn’t necessary for most the population.
    And look at the old people they vaccinated first in high numbers. After they dropped like flies by the unsafe vaccines, the ones that have survived are now vulnerable to the mutations. They got about 4 months of protection , what a great vaccine. And who knows about the long term effects, they don’t care.
    And, its pretty telling that their spokesman Dr Fauci funded bio weapons for a sinister purpose.
    And, they are going for lockdown 2, while the public is still subjected to fake and censored news.
    Deliberate cover up of the mounting evidence of adverse effects from the jabs, including death, that isn’t acceptable by any stretch of the imagination.
    The Government is not going to protect you from these murderers, they are in on forcing this agenda.
    The biggest thing about this manufactured Panademic that is revealing is it has shown the horror of their agendas and the medical tyranny being used to take your freedoms.
    They will use other weapons of destruction with lockdowns , its all planned. Just listen to the Nazi psychopath Klaus Schwab talk about what’s to come.
    Its got to be stopped, and I don’t see that our corrupted government is stopping it, so the people have to stop it apparently. Lockdown 2 and any vaccine passports or forced jabs, or police state they plan has got to be stopped.
    Hardest thing to perceive is that forces as evil as a Hitler, Stalin or Mao are trying to take over the World.

  16. Oh, Blueskye, Response to your post way high up there.

    Your right its Pectin. 700 milligrams of Apple Pectin twice a day. This was a MD that said it but I forget where I saw it.

    This MD said they were using this Pectin to remove radioactive toxins from nuclear waste in people
    exposed to such toxins. For some reason he was saying that it could be applied to spike protein .
    I was going to research it but I got sidetracked. So I thought I would just mention it if someone wanted to research it.

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