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It’s Not A Matter Of If But When This Housing Bubble Will Burst

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “In Seattle, the median single-family home price of $896,500 is up about 11% from last July but down from a $919,000 peak in May. ‘Buyers feel like they can be a little more choosy at this point,’ said Ian Gordon, a broker at Coldwell Banker Bain’s Seattle-based Get Happy at Home Team.”

“Colorado Springs-area home prices took a breather in July from their record-setting pace during much of this year. At the end of July, the supply of homes listed for sale totaled 981. That’s the highest monthly inventory since 881 homes were on the market in October 2020. Rick Van Wieren, a real estate agent with Re/Max Properties in Colorado Springs, said he continues to see multiple offers for homes. There have been occasional price reductions on homes listed or sale and some properties might stay on the market a little longer before they sell.”

“‘Home sellers are increasingly having to lower their expectations,’ said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. ‘The transition to this new slightly cooler phase of the housing market will happen unevenly depending on the location and the desirability of the home. If you are currently looking to buy a home, I recommend that you do your research on how much attention the home is getting before you put in your offer. If you find a home without any other offers, you may be able to get it for below the list price and with inspection and financing contingencies intact.'”

“‘Asking prices are still high, but the share of listings with price drops is rising steadily and could soon reach pre-pandemic levels,’ said Fairweather. ‘That’s an early indication that we are past the peak for this intense seller’s market. Buyers may begin to regain some negotiating power on properties that have been on the market for more than a week.'”

“The torrid pace of activity in the Long Island housing market cooled off slightly last month, as home sales fell and inventory rose. The 1,442 pending sales in Nassau and the 1,751 pending sales in Suffolk last month reflect a 31 percent year-over-year drop from July 2020. Meanwhile, inventory continues to climb. Since the Long Island inventory bottomed out with 6,008 homes listed for sale in March 2021, there are now 26.2 percent more homes on the market.”

“George Ratiu, Realtor.com senior economist, says an aerial view shows differing sides of the current real estate equation, but one consistent with what Pasadena buyers and realtors have seen for the past six months. ‘On one hand,’ Ratiu offered, ‘mortgage rates have been dropping for a month, moving toward the lows we saw in January and February of this year. On the other hand, more homeowners are entering the market, with the number of freshly-listed homes for sale advancing in 14 of the last 17 weeks.'”

“The Sarasota Herald-Tribune met with Centennial Bank Market President Tyrone Shinn to discuss what his bank has experienced during the recent real estate boom. What challenges do rising construction costs pose in the underwriting process? During underwriting, we are thoroughly vetting how much liquidity the borrower has between themselves and capital partners and how much they are willing to invest in a project. The real estate industry is cyclical, it’s not a matter of if but when this housing bubble will burst and as a bank, we want to remain wary of the fluctuating loan-to-cost and loan-to-value for these credit requests.”

“The hottest real estate market in recent memory showed signs of cooling in July, but realtors in Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows say it is still a seller’s market. Dianne Fernandes Enns of the Royal LePage Brookside Realty team, said properties are no longer selling for prices way above asking, as they were in the spring. She doesn’t believe sales will drop significantly over the long term, noted that an influx of foreign investment could again bring greater activity to the Vancouver market, with ripple effects across the Lower Mainland.”

“‘Maple Ridge is very popular,’ said Enns. ‘It’s one of the last places you can get a single family home for $1 million.'”

“This two-bed, two-bath home has been on and off the market since December last year. Believe it or not it was actually first listed for $2,475,000 when it first hit the market. Now it’s down a touch at $2,295,000 but in my humble opinion that’s still WAY too high. I’m actually a bit baffled as to why the realtor or homeowner thinks they can get $2 million for a mediocre-at-best bungalow. The house is right on the corner of Bathurst Street so it’s going to be loud AF and since when is being close to the nightmare that is the 401 a good thing?”

“And yet $2 million just for under 6,000 square-feet of land in a meh area? WHY?!? Am I missing something?? Is this sitting on oil? Or is this just Toronto real estate? Please say it ain’t so.”

“London’s property market has become a buyer’s market, driven by demand flowing out of the capital and into areas such as the commuter belt since the onset of the Covid crisis. London estate agent Benham and Reeves reveals nearly one in three properties in the capital have had their initial asking price slashed whilst on the market. Director Marc von Grundherr said: ‘While much of the UK is very much a seller’s market at present, it’s a fantastic time to be a buyer in London.'”

“House prices in Sydney’s coastal and middle-ring suburbs have defied the lockdown, rising by up to 5 per cent over July, but some areas in the city’s south-west and Parramatta have succumbed to the ballooning outbreak. Ten out of the 17 worst-performing suburbs were in Sydney’s south-west, CoreLogic’s latest data shows. ‘But there are some confounding factors to consider which suggest this might not all be due to harsh lockdowns,’ said Eliza Owen, CoreLogic Australia head of research. ‘It could be due to affordability constraints hitting these markets.'”

Related Posts

Time To Buy? Scared Sellers?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKkWHBUjYJM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DANAER2R5lQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjKNFEK43c8

This Post Has 112 Comments

    1. No shortage of clothes line in that back yard.

      Seems like Canada housing bubble at this late stage is all about foreign investors, and their own citizens can go to hell.

      1. Those aren’t clotheslines. They look like a support mesh for climbing vines or even vine veggies. The blogger thinks the house should be a teardown because of its dated interior. It’s outdated, but not teardown-worthy.

  2. ‘the share of listings with price drops is rising steadily and could soon reach pre-pandemic levels’

    Wa?

    ‘That’s an early indication that we are past the peak for this intense seller’s market. Buyers may begin to regain some negotiating power on properties that have been on the market for more than a week’

    But 6 months Daryl? Are you saying that after 7 days they better get to sawin’ and a slashin?

  3. ‘price of $896,500 is up about 11% from last July but down from a $919,000 peak in May’

    Well that was an expensive 3 months. The Times also has some winnahs!

    1. Actually I’ve got a lot more. I learned long ago how long is too long for these Friday posts. So we’ll have some interesting material for this weekend.

      1. Meh. . . It’s different this time. The “system” has learned (better) how to cheat and squeeze more dollars and suckers this time. Covid hides all the other econ indicators which should scare people, or at least create more housing bubble heads. “bubble” is almost a cliche now.

        2. The “system” has learned (better) how to cheat and squeeze more dollars and suckers this time.

          It has. But the problems remains: there are only so many and eventually you run out of suckers.

  5. 2 mill, and the refridge opens the wrong way, its supposed to open towards the wall so you can take out the food and put it on the counter…………….FAIL.

    1. Good catch!

      Fortunately, it is easy to swap the handles and hinges on a refrigerator since there is no locking latch like a front loader washing machine.

      1. “Fortunately, it is easy to swap the handles and hinges on a refrigerator since there is no locking latch like a front loader washing machine.”

        That’s the point. The ass-backwards fridge door is an apt reflection of the exotically high level of mental laziness (or outright stupidity) and greed that fuels RE bubbles…especially at their zenith…and this one’s going to burst spectacularly, IMO.

        1999: “Hey honey, let’s snap up those Pets.com shares. They’re going through the roof!.”
        2007: Hey honey, the Broker says we don’t need to show proof of income on the variable rate loan that we can refinance later!”
        2021: Hey honey, the Realtor says we can close the deal if we waive the inspection and offer 60k over asking!”

  7. Latest from #ClownWorld

    ‘Woke America is like N.Korea’: Defector Yeonmi Park reveals she was mugged in Chicago by three black women but when she restrained one she was called racist and forced by white bystanders to let her GO

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9864811/North-Korean-defector-called-racist-called-cops-mugger.html

    A woman who defected from North Korea and came to the US says she was mugged by three black women outside a Saks Fifth Avenue store in Chicago last year but was prevented from calling the police by white bystanders because doing so was ‘racist.’

    Yeonmi Park, the Columbia University student who along with her mother was sold into slavery by human traffickers after fleeing North Korea when she was just 13, alleges the incident took place during last summer’s looting in the Windy City.

  8. Rick Van Wieren, a real estate agent with Re/Max Properties in Colorado Springs, said he continues to see multiple offers for homes.

    Papers that quote realtors should be required by law to post a “realtors are liars” disclaimer in the public interest.

  9. Buyers may begin to regain some negotiating power on properties that have been on the market for more than a week.’”

    Yeah, about that…I think I’ll hold off until the Fed’s Everything Bubble bursts, millions of FBs are walking away from their underwater shacks, and we have a financial crisis that makes 2008 look like a walk in the park.

  10. reading about all the various U.S. foreclosures during the 2008 bust was an interesting geography test.
    now that’s it’s gone worldwide I’m auditioning for Jeopardy.

  11. ‘While much of the UK is very much a seller’s market at present, it’s a fantastic time to be a buyer in London.’”

    Sure, if you don’t mind Sharia enforcement zones and rampant crime by globalist imports.

  12. Are California libtards belatedly making the connection between their votes and the state’s terminal downward spiral?

    Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom losing recall vote by double digits

    https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-recall/article/poll-Gavin-Newsom-recall-losing-Elder-Paffrath-16364991.php

    Just prior to the start of the first televised debate in the Gavin Newsomrecall election Wednesday evening, a shock poll showed the governor losing the first question (“Should Gavin Newsom be recalled?”) by double digits.

    The poll came from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune, and was conducted among 1,100 Californians from Aug. 2 to Aug. 4. It found that 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, while only 40% wanted to keep him in power. The previous Survey USA/San Diego Union Tribune poll from May found 36% in favor of the recall with 47% opposed.

    2. We can do this! Dump Nuisance before he gets the chance to dupe the national electorate.

    1. Buh buh… the intelligence. 🙄 Geeze, Gateway Pundit should have known there was a mistake somewhere. Turns out the doofus mis-spoke and later corrected himself.
      All but one were unvaccinated.

      ————————
      “All but one are vaccinated.”

      Another report on ABC.net says all but one were unvaccinated.

      UPDATE: This post was updated to note the two differing reports on the vaccinated cases.

      UPDATE 2: The Aussie host later apologized for his original report.
      ——————

      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/07/update-sydney-141-new-covid-hospitalizations-vaccinated-except-one-video/

        1. https:// twitter. com/ RanIsraeli/ status/ 1423322271503028228:

          “95% of the severe patients are vaccinated”.
          “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in Fully vaccinated people.”
          “We are opening more and more COVID wards.”
          “The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out”

          (Dr. Kobi Haviv, earlier today on Chanel 13 @newsisrael13)

        2. That gotcha headline has already made it into the anti-vax compilations etc. I guess you can’t do a sanity check if you have no sanity.

          2. TL;DW: The spike protein itself is toxic. Injecting people with the genetic code for it was a bad idea.

          3. Which is fine. Go out and get Delta and you’ll have all the spike protein you want. You body will even make a lot more of it than what was in the injection.

          4. You body will even make a lot more of it than what was in the injection.

            You clearly don’t understand the natural disease progression versus the jabs’ mechanisms of action.

            My family unit likely had this nonsense before it was on anyone’s radar in January 2020 courtesy of Chinese visitors at LEGOLAND. My stepbrother, his wife who got the Pfizer jab and their son have it this week.

          5. You clearly don’t understand

            And then having done a google search is arrogant about how ignorant anyone attempting to logically process all of this is.

            “Fine, if you can’t keep up with my Google search, you can just go die, and the quicker the better!”

          9. I am well aware of Blue’s implication. He is implying that I am saying “go die.”* I am NOT saying “go die.” I am saying “go get COVID.” I want people to gain immunity from COVID. And if they will not take a vaccination, then they can gain immunity by contracting and recovering from COVID naturally. Luckily Delta is contagious enough that this is likely to happen quickly, so we can get over this and not argue any more.

            As for dying from COVID, the anti-vaxxers have said, repeatedly, variations on “I’d rather take my chances with a [fake] disease with a 99. 9…9..whatever survival rate.” Very well then. By your own admission, almost nobody will die from this disease. So when I say “get COVID,” of course I’m not saying you’re going to die. By your own words, you won’t die.

            And I can’t believe I have to explain this to you. 🙄

        3. Given that oz is about 20% fully vaxxed, it does seem unlikely that most new cases would be among the vaxxed.

  14. New CDC eviction moratorium gets mixed responses from courts nationwide
    Excerpts:
    —the CDC order itself says it does not apply “to the extent its application is prohibited by federal court order.”
    —Barbara Peck, a spokeswoman for the Tennessee state court system, said Wednesday that lawyers for courts in her state had “advised that it is not applicable in Tennessee.”
    — Two large Ohio court systems on Thursday issued conflicting decisions regarding the new moratorium.
    —Nicholas Bagley, a University of Michigan law professor, said he expects landlords “all over the country to turn immediately to the courts in an effort to secure a preliminary injunction,” an order that would effectively allow evictions to resume.

    1. This is where the rubber hits the road. The CDC eviction moratorium is the most egregious and blatant government overreach to date, yet jurists compromised by the globalists will rubber-stamp it. This is where those paying attention will learn how pitifully few honest judges are left in a thoroughly corrupt and captured system.

    2. It’s impossible to overstate the implications of the CDC usurping hundreds of years of contract law and trampling on the rights of property owners. The overreach, if left unchecked, is only going to get more rapacious as the Democrat-Bolsheviks and their globalist puppet masters escalate their power grabs and larceny.

      Tucker Carlson: Rochelle Walensky now makes the laws, and she’s taking your private property

      https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-rochelle-walensky-private-property

      1. I don’t think we’ve seen this since Andrew Jackson.

        Even Biden is perfuddled on this. Poor guy, you can just see him thinking… “But wait, Nance, I’m pretty sure we’re not suffosed ta do this. I recall, yeah, now I member, it was back in ’03 [1803]” that some guys said wey’re a co-equal brinch uh govmun #wipemuhbut…”

      2. Ok, so I can’t go to restaurants now , after 20 months of complying with lockdowns and useless mask mandates. They also knew that their bogus tests were false while they tested people who weren’t sick.
        This is a unconstitutional take over of USA and other Countries after they rigged the election and brought on a fraudulent Medical Tyranny that has nothing to do with Science. They have no justification for forced new technology vaccines, while they cover up adverse reactions.
        These are criminal entities who have planned to take over and subject populations to controls that rival and exceed the worst villains of the last 100 years. Unreal

  15. Transgender city councilwoman confronts Aberdeen store owner over controversial sign
    “If you are born with a [expletive], you are not a chick,” read the sign written by Don Sucher, owner of Sucher & Sons Star Wars Shop in Aberdeen.”
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/aberdeen-washington-star-wars-shop-transgender-city-councilwoman-confrontation/281-81452692-daea-410c-a27e-d469ed875045

    However…
    “Everybody’s loved it. Everybody’s taken pictures of it,” said Sucher.

    3. I believe it’s also hard to change Y chromosomes to X’s, though parts can be surgically altered.

      1. I believe it’s also hard to change Y chromosomes to X’s, though parts can be surgically altered.

        Because you can’t, which is why I will NEVER recognize trans people as the opposite gender of which they were born. And I’m also never going to engage in the mental gymnastics required to pretend they have “changed” in order to protect their feelings and support their twisted behaviors. They’re mentally ill. They need psychiatrists, not surgeons.

        2. I’ll never forget the time I quizzed my then-2-year-old niece about the gender of a dude on television who had undergone a sex change operation to give him female parts.

          I asked my niece if it was a man or a woman. Her matter-of-fact reply was, “It’s a man.” It’s hard to fool a bright 2-year-old!

        3. recognize trans people as the opposite gender of which they were born

          I have no problem with it if someone comes to an informed decision after the age of 18. I have a huge problem with our local children’s hospital having a Center for Gender-Affirming Care when it’s socially acceptable, even popular, to change your gender on a whim.

          1. 10 years ago, teens were coming out as gay left and right. That seems to have faded away, and now kids (or their parents) are coming out as trans left and right. The LGBs are dismayed because now they have to compete with the Ts for the new recruits. None of them figured out that the kids are just doing it to fit in (or to get a athletic scholarship for college).

            This is golden-calf stuff.

          3. Yup, they’re doing it to get attention. Being gay just doesn’t get you the sympathy it used to, so now they are on to the harder drugs, so to speak.

    1. How many of you have performed your civic duty today by instructing your children to throw rocks at any approaching realtors?

  18. “In Seattle, the median single-family home price of $896,500 is up about 11% from last July but down from a $919,000 peak in May.”

    These numbers are absolutely bananas. If you went back in time and somebody told you houses would be priced this high, you would have laughed in their face. These are like video game numbers, not even remotely supported by incomes.

    1. “These are like video game numbers, not even remotely supported by incomes.”

      Instead they are supported by debt, and this debt is what supports me. 😁

    2. The important detail is that despite the red hot summer sales season, literally the hottest on record for Seattle temperature wise, plus no sign of the Fed easing up on the stimulus throttle, prices have crossed over the mountain top and are rapidly sliding into the crater.

      Enjoy the ride down, HODLerz!

    3. Seattle is nothing … take a look at the East side (across L. Washington). Bellevue and Redmond.

      I have friends that bought for $300K in 2007 – and are now worth $2M. 10X in 25 years

      1. To clarify – the asking is $2M+ in their neighborhood. A few are thinking of selling (working for mrSoftie) and think that they can work from Leavenworth (in the mountains 2.5 hrs from the campus) and have so much experience and knowledge of the code base that their management will have to accept that they only come in <10 days a month.

        1. If the ask is $2 million on a $300K house, why work at all? You may as retire; perhaps do some p/t gig work for walking money.

          1. Nobody’s paying 2mil to a house bought for 300k roughly a decade ago.

            No. Body. Buddy!

          2. Nobody’s paying 2mil to a house bought for 300k roughly a decade ago.

            Because no house in the area has gone up 10x in 10 years. That’s a grotesque exaggeration.

      2. 2007 to 2021, how’s that 25 years?

        Gotcha! Asking price is 1.2 mil, sell price 600k.

      2. This morning was the first clear day in over a week with several days so bad I wore my N95 just to drop trash in our garbage can!

  20. Today is Friday, August 6th and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

  22. “The real estate industry is cyclical, it’s not a matter of if but when this housing bubble will burst and as a bank, we want to remain wary of the fluctuating loan-to-cost and loan-to-value for these credit requests.”

    Given that anyone who can read a newspaper is aware of the bubble at this point, won’t the financial authorities take measures to ensure that it doesn’t burst? I don’t understand why bursting bubbles are an inevitable outcome.

  23. Via Alex Berenson on Substack (excerpt):

    Covid vaccine maker Moderna received 300,000 reports of side effects after vaccinations over a three-month period following the launch of its shot, according to an internal report from a company that helps Moderna manage the reports.

    That figure is far higher than the number of side effect reports about Moderna’s vaccine publicly available in the federal system that tracks such adverse events.

    Vaccine manufacturers like Moderna are legally required to forward all side effect reports they receive to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, where they are made public each week.

    1. Vaccine manufacturers like Moderna are legally required

      As we are seeing, the rule of law ain’t what it used to be.

      2. This is coming from Alex though. He displays major TDS. I suspect this experience is his red pill.

    1. I don’t trust him or Greenwald. Hollywood (AKA CIA propaganda) doesn’t make movies about real whistleblowers.

        1. Snowden is probably controlled opposition. Look here (NSA), not here (CIA). I recently discovered Greenwald and his husband are involved in gay porn and prostitution.

  27. Was reading an article on the CNN Business website, about millions of jobs going begging:

    “It’s a really unusual situation to have — to have the ratio of vacancies to unemployed be this high,” Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told reporters last month.

    Nothing unusual at all. When you pay the utterly unskilled up to $1000 a week to not work, they won’t work.

    And the policymakers aren’t stupid or delusional. This is by design. Along with the lockdowns, this is meant to destroy small business on Main St. Once the desired level of destruction is accomplished the cheese bucks will evaporate.

  28. It’s different this time. The bubble blew up so rapidly, and so many people are convinced now that real estate always goes up, that it seems like a quick trip back into the crater is a likely path forward.

    1. It may look like a bubble, but the US isn’t heading for another housing crisis
      Opinion by Dana Peterson for CNN Business Perspectives
      “Dana Peterson is an executive vice president and chief economist at The Conference Board. The opinions expressed in this commentary are her own. ”
      Perspectives Dana Peterson
      Updated 8:33 AM ET, Fri
      August 6, 2021
      – US trucker shortage means everything is more expensive
      – Mom sold her blood to pay rent.
      – ‘Outrageous’ used car prices amid highest inflation in 13 years
      – Prices are going up on almost everything. Here’s why
      – ‘More than my rent’: Childcare costs have spiked

      Home prices have surged during the pandemic, leaving many to believe we’re either in a housing bubble or heading toward one.
      The good news, however, is that the United States is not about to repeat the 2005-07 housing boom and bust, which led to the Great Recession. Basic supply and demand factors — not speculation, predatory lending and/or bad underwriting — are driving home prices. Moreover, a series of mortgage-market safeguards should prevent a hard landing when home prices recede.

      Existing home prices were up 23.4% in June over the last year, according to the National Association of Realtors. This price spike reflects a pandemic-induced confluence of events, and demographic factors, which drove demand for homes, following more than 15 years of housing underinvestment.

      Demand spike

      Demand for homes spiked during the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero, driving mortgage rates down to record lows. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit an all-time low of 2.65% in January and remains historically low, at around 2.8%.
      Adding to demand was the wave of Americans who were suddenly working from home during the pandemic. Many sought larger spaces with home offices and other amenities, dramatically raising demand for new and existing homes. This also occurred as the oldest Millennials reached the age (30 to 40) when homebuying becomes attractive and many are starting families and saving.

      This combination of factors drove household formations (e.g., moving to a new home or apartment away from parents or roommates) to a rolling 12-month total of 4.95 million by mid-2020 compared to roughly 1.5 million households formed on a 12-month rolling basis the year before — an all-time high we estimate using Census Bureau data.
      …

  30. Gay Democrat State Senator Pictured With Kamala & AOC Arrested For Raping Underage Boy

    by Kelen McBreen
    August 6th 2021, 2:46 pm

    Democratic Arizona state Sen. Tony Navarrete was arrested in Phoenix on Thursday after police
    were notified of allegations that the politician was engaging in sexual conduct with a male child.

    The openly homosexual politician has been photographed with top Democrats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Kamala Harris, showing he’s a well-connected individual.

    The alleged molestation occurred in 2019, according to investigators, and Navarette is actually being charged with three counts of sexual conduct with a minor and one count of molestation of a child.

    Responding to the arrest, Senate Democrats released a statement, saying, “We are deeply disturbed by what we’ve learned from recent media reports about the arrest of Senator Tony Navarrete. These allegations and arrest are serious and deeply troubling.”

    It’s been a bad week for the state senator. On Tuesday, Navarrete tested positive for Covid-19 despite being fully vaccinated.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/gay-democrat-state-senator-pictured-with-kamala-aoc-arrested-for-raping-underage-boy/

    1. “Gay Democrat State Senator Pictured With Kamala & AOC Arrested For Raping Underage Boy”

      Yesterday’s headline in the MSM was:
      “Arizona state senator accused of sexual conduct with minor”

      It really does matter where you get your information!

  31. One of my favorite bubble indicators is my lovely wife. When she starts reading me the recent local home sales results to convince me how insane prices have recently become, prices truly have gone berserk.

  32. Is the California dream dying on Governor Nuisance’s watch? It certainly isn’t too late to recall him.

    Come on, California voters…we’ve got this!

    1. Housing in California over postcard with coastal scene
      Emily Haasch
      Ideas

      The California Dream Is Dying

      The once-dynamic state is closing the door on economic opportunity.
      By Conor Friedersdorf
      July 21, 2021

      About the author: Conor Friedersdorf is a California-based staff writer at The Atlantic, where he focuses on politics and national affairs. He is the founding editor of The Best of Journalism, a newsletter devoted to exceptional nonfiction.

      Updated at 7:30pm ET on July 30, 2021.

      Behold California, colossus of the West Coast: the most populous American state; the world’s fifth-largest economy; and arguably the most culturally influential, exporting Google searches and Instagram feeds and iPhones and Teslas and Netflix Originals and kimchi quesadillas. This place inspires awe. If I close my eyes I can see silhouettes of Joshua trees against a desert sunrise; seals playing in La Jolla’s craggy coves of sun-spangled, emerald seawater; fog rolling over the rugged Sonoma County coast at sunset into primeval groves of redwoods that John Steinbeck called “ambassadors from another time.”

      This landscape is bejeweled with engineering feats: the California Aqueduct; the Golden Gate Bridge; and the ribbon of Pacific Coast Highway that stretches south of Monterey, clings to the cliffs of Big Sur, and descends the kelp-strewn Central Coast, where William Hearst built his Xanadu on a hillside where his zebras still graze. No dreamscape better inspires dreamers. Millions still immigrate to my beloved home to improve both their prospects and ours.

      Yet I fear for California’s future. The generations that reaped the benefits of the postwar era in what was the most dynamic place in the world should be striving to ensure that future generations can pursue happiness as they did. Instead, they are poised to take the California Dream to their graves by betraying a promise the state has offered from the start.
      …

      1. My wife and I miss the moderate weather around the San Francisco Bay Area, but neither of us were properly skilled to thrive there economically.

    2. KGTV – San Diego, California
      New survey shows how Californians feel about the Newsom recall election
      By: Krista Summerville
      Posted at 4:32 PM, Aug 06, 2021
      and last updated 4:32 PM, Aug 06, 2021

      SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — In a new scientific ABC 10News-Survey USA poll, Californians weighed in on a range of topics involving California’s upcoming gubernatorial recall election.

      More than 1,100 registered voters were asked about their thoughts on the Sept. 14 election. More than 50 percent of voters need to vote to recall the governor for the recall election to happen.

      Survey participants were asked whether or not they will be voting in the recall election, and the results showed:

      49 percent — 100 percent Certain to vote
      20 percent — Likely to vote
      10 percent — Certain NOT to vote
      10 percent — 50/50
      6 percent — Unlikely to vote
      4 percent — Not sure

      Participants were also asked whether they would vote to remove Gavin Newsom from office, and the results showed:

      51 percent — Yes to remove
      40 percent — No to keep
      9 percent — Undecided
      …
      Participants were also asked which reasons best described why they thought Newsom should be recalled, and the results showed:

      34 percent — His handling of COVID restrictions
      18 percent — His spending decisions
      13 percent — Closures of businesses
      12 percent — Mishandling of unemployment dollars
      10 percent — Attending a party during lockdown
      5 percent — Some other reason
      4 percent — Closures of schools
      3 percent — Wildfires
      …

        1. Those poll questions are a flunk. Closure of school and attending a party should have been included under the COVID restrictions option. And I see no options for crime, homelessness, and gender-bending.

  34. US household debt soared to nearly 15 trillion last quarter
    By Anneken Tappe, CNN Business
    Updated 11:01 AM ET, Tue August 3, 2021
    Housing sales boom as remote work continues

    New York (CNN Business)
    Americans have more debt than ever before. A surge in credit card spending and home purchases caused US household debt to increase by $313 billion, or 2.1%, in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That’s the largest nominal jump since 2007 and the biggest percentage increase in seven and a half years.

    In total, American consumers held $14.96 trillion in debt at the end of June — the biggest pile of bills on record and $812 billion more than what was owed at the end of 2019, before the pandemic hit.

    Credit card balances rose by $17 billion in the second quarter, but they still remain $140 billion below levels at the end of 2019. Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion.

    Mortgage debt and pandemic-era protections

    Mortgage debt, the single biggest contributor to overall household debt, rose $282 billion to $10.44 trillion. A whopping 44% of the outstanding balances were originated over the past year, accounting for both new mortgages and refinancings.

    But even though the US housing market is red hot and borrowing to purchase homes is through the roof, “there are still 2 million borrowers in mortgage forbearance who are vulnerable to financial distress once the forbearance programs come to an end,” said Joelle Scally administrator of the Center of Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed.

    As the programs were first being implemented, the mix of borrowers taking advantage of mortgage forbearance protections was diverse in terms of credit scores. But over time, higher credit score borrowers left the programs, leaving only the more financially vulnerable.
    What will happen after the pandemic-era protections expire? That’s perhaps the biggest public policy question of the recovery.
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