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This Could Send Housing Prices In A Downward Spiral

A report from Bloomberg. “Zillow’s iBuying business loses money, so stopping purchases should help its bottom line, analyst Ygal Arounian said in a note. ‘This feels like they bought way too many homes and they’re trying to work off that excess supply,’ said Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel.”

From CNN Business. “iBuyer share in some cities, like Phoenix, Atlanta or Charlotte, North Carolina, now tops 5%. ‘Zillow just kept barreling down and now they’ve hit this wall,’ said Mike DelPrete, an independent real estate technology strategist. This is not the situation a growth-focused company wants to be in, he said. ‘If you’re trying to be number one in the market, slamming on the brakes is one of the worst things you can do,’ said DelPrete.”

From KLKN on Nebraska. “It was a housing market frenzy just a few months ago with homes getting snatched up within hours and lots of buyers being forced to make some tough and risky decisions. ‘One of the terms that would be tossed out to be more competitive earlier this spring was to waive inspections. So, they were just buying the house as is, not doing an inspection, you just get what you get. That was a little scary,’ Melanie Dawkins, with Red Door Realty, said.”

“The Lincoln housing market has turned the corner and things are looking up for buyers and sellers. Dawkins says it’s technically still a sellers market but things have slowed down substantially and given everyone more time to think about their decisions. ‘Right now, I can say we’re gonna go look at a handful of these. You can think about them overnight, let’s talk about it tomorrow and see what you think of it. That’s a lot better for making such an amazingly huge decision. This is the most expensive purchase you’ll ever make,’ Dawkins said.”

From 2 News Oklahoma. “Tulsa’s housing market could be slowing down after booming last year. Looking at the lists for this year, Tulsa isn’t on there, as signs point to things calming down. ‘This time last year we were seeing 30 plus offers on most homes,’ said Andrew Jones-Brothers, an associate broker for Unique Properties. ‘I mean, it was unlike anything we’ve seen before in our market.'”

“Jones-Brothers said, in 2020 and early 2021, houses were selling for tens of thousands more than their asking price. Many on the market for a short time before being snapped up. And a lot of those buyers were from out of state. But now, that’s starting to slow down. ‘I think we’ll be seeing these higher property evaluations for the foreseeable future,’ he said. ‘But some of the frenzy is really gone.'”

The Austin Business Journal in Texas. “In July, data from the Austin Board of Realtors revealed an important shift: The median home price had declined month over month for the first time since January 2021. Since then, prices have continued to decline in the Austin metro each month, while still setting records. In September, the median sale price in the Austin metro was $450,000. This was $20,000 less than August’s median of $470,000 but still the highest median price for September on record — 28.5% higher than September 2020 — according to ABOR.”

“One catalyst for declining prices is an increase in supply across the region. In September, new listings were up from last year, with 4,136 new homes hitting the market. ‘The single home prices got so out of whack, I’m not surprised that they’re coming down a little bit,” said Amy Barbee, vice president of the Austin Housing Conservancy. ‘We’re not seeing as many offers on homes even in hot areas, so people stand a better chance at winning a house,’ realtor Matt Richard said.”

The Orlando Business Journal. “Central Florida home sales slipped again in September, which the Orlando Regional Realtor Association’s president called a sign of the market ‘leveling off.’ Home supply increased and the median home price took a dive for the first time since September 2020, all signs the local residential real estate sector, while still a strong seller’s market, may have hit its peak.”

“Fewer sales means the region’s home inventory ticked up for the fifth consecutive month. The 3,667 homes on the market last month was a 38% bump up from April, the low point of the year. ‘The market is still heavily in favor of sellers, but it is showing some signs of returning to become more balanced,’ Orlando Regional Realtor Association 2021 President Natalie Arrowsmith said.”

From Bisnow Los Angeles in California. “Hotel developer Adolfo Suaya has sold a recognizable Hollywood Boulevard apartment building for $19.2M, Bisnow has learned. The Hollywood Hillview apartments had gone on the market in 2019, with the seller hoping to fetch $25M. In May 2020, the property returned to market with new representation targeting a sale price of $21M. The property was 75% vacant at the close of escrow, which will make repositioning easier.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Almost 13.5 million square feet of downtown office space now sits unoccupied, roughly enough capacity for 90,000 workers. Calgary’s vacancy rate is almost three times that of Montreal and four times as high as Toronto, and it’s only expected to get worse in the coming years. Calgary is now searching for ways to fix a problem that has left the city’s downtown – which already had a reputation as a lifeless collection of skyscrapers filled with people who clear out at the end of every workday – a shell of its boom-time self.”

“The glut of office space downtown has played havoc with the city’s finances. The vacancy rates sent property values for the city’s most lucrative real estate plunging, with some office towers losing more than half their value in the span of a year. Commercial properties outside the downtown core were left to pick up the slack, and some of them faced tax bills that had more than quadrupled.”

From Scoop Business. “A new study by New Zealand Media and Entertainment’s (NZME) OneRoof has revealed first home buyers in three of the country’s biggest and most expensive cities could save hundreds of thousands of dollars by choosing to buy a newly built home. OneRoof and its data partner found that new homes were cheaper than existing properties in Auckland, Wellington, Tauranga, and Queenstown Lakes – sometimes by as much as $600,000.”

“‘When it comes to the new-build housing market, the numbers point to three things: that new homes are often the cheapest entry points into the market, that they are growing in value and that New Zealand is building more of them – and fast,’ said OneRoof editor Owen Vaughan. ‘In the 24 months to June 2021, the number of consents issued for new residential buildings in New Zealand peaked at just over 80,000. In the first two quarters of this year alone, almost 23,000 consents were issued – that’s 281 per cent more than the total for the first two quarters of 2011.'”

From Channel News Asia. “China’s September new construction starts slumped for a sixth straight month, the longest spate of monthly declines since 2015, as cash-strapped developers put a pause on projects in the wake of tighter regulations on borrowing. New construction starts in September fell 13.54 per cent from a year earlier, the third month of double-digit declines, according to Reuters. ‘All the data are poor,’ said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst with property agency Centaline. ‘Financing is hard, sales are tough, so of course, there has been no enthusiasm to build. For the first time in history, developers are encountering two blockages – blockages in sales and blockages in financing.'”

From Vision News. “The property market has been a major driver of economic growth in communist China. Chinese citizens used to view the property as the safest investment. As of 2019, real estate accounted for 70 percent of household wealth in China. However, all this is changing. Of the developers that saw lower sales in September, Longfor Group holdings reported a 33 percent drop in sales YoY for the month; China Resources Land’s sales fell by nearly 24 percent; China Overseas Land & Investment by 42 percent; and China Vanke Co. by 34 percent.”

“The downward trend in sales could push developers who are in desperate need of funds to repay debts to offer big discounts. This could send housing prices in a downward spiral. Huang Jun, a 25-year-old real-estate agent in Foshan, said that prices for new homes downtown have dropped about 20 percent from a recent peak in March.”

“‘Virtually all developers have offered discounts over the past two months… Just like Evergrande, they must be under pressure to sell more flats [to repay borrowings]… Most of [the customers] want to wait and see if the prices would go down further… In China, most people prefer to buy apartments when prices are rising, not falling,’ Huang said.”

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This Post Has 129 Comments

  2. In July, data from the Austin Board of Realtors revealed an important shift: The median home price had declined month over month for the first time since January 2021. Since then, prices have continued to decline in the Austin metro each month’

    Sinking like a turd in a well since mid-summer.

  3. ‘Home supply increased and the median home price took a dive’

    Dive?

    ‘Fewer sales means the region’s home inventory ticked up for the fifth consecutive month. The 3,667 homes on the market last month was a 38% bump up from April’

    Wa happened to my shortage Orlando? Thousands of shacks mysteriously appear? They must have been there all along!

  4. “ ‘This feels like they bought way too many homes and they’re trying to work off that excess supply,’ said Jonathan Miller, president of appraisal firm Miller Samuel.””

    You might be right Jonathan but your feelings are irrelevant to analysis.

  5. ‘already had a reputation as a lifeless collection of skyscrapers filled with people who clear out at the end of every workday – a shell of its boom-time self’

    You had yer boom, now yer bust.

    ‘The glut of office space downtown has played havoc with the city’s finances. The vacancy rates sent property values for the city’s most lucrative real estate plunging, with some office towers losing more than half their value in the span of a year. Commercial properties outside the downtown core were left to pick up the slack, and some of them faced tax bills that had more than quadrupled’

    Another problem of overbuilding. You still have to have streets, utilities, cops. The Globe and Mail is pretty much a virtue signalling machine. Oh the climate! But they don’t say boo about this colossal debacle. I bring this up because I did, at the time they were “building out” downtown. The K-da REIC boosterism carried the day and now they’re fooked.

  6. ‘One catalyst for declining prices is an increase in supply across the region. In September, new listings were up from last year, with 4,136 new homes hitting the market’

    I remember these clowns saying ‘if we only had more shacks we could sell every one in fifteen minutes!’

    ‘We’re not seeing as many offers on homes even in hot areas’

    Oh dear…

  7. “…Zillow’s iBuying business loses money…”

    “..This feels like they bought way too many homes and they’re trying to work off that excess supply…”

    Zillow’s situation is starting to feel a lot like the situation 40 years ago when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market.

    The Hunt’s ultimately went bankrupt.

    Zillow could possibly be not far behind.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

      1. Mr. Banker will soon feast on the mis-timed fortune of others.

        Speculators on their knees begging for cash to make their ‘margin calls’.

        Its been hard to wrap my head around about how vain and how incredibly stupid some people are. But they are, an we in the HBB are seeing in play out in real time.

        1. “Mr. Banker will soon feast on the mis-timed fortune of others.”

          As always.

          “Speculators on their knees begging for cash to make their ‘margin calls’.”

          For a slight fee I will be happy to supply the knee pads.

          “Its been hard to wrap my head around about how vain and how incredibly stupid some people are.”

          Think of it as God’s Gift, as I do.

          “But they are, an we in the HBB are seeing in play out in real time.”

          Go long on lawn chairs and popcorn.

      3. “The commodity exchanges, backed by the federal government, changed the rules to protect themselves, thereby shutting down the Hunts’ scheme. The brothers should have seen this coming, as paranoid as they were of government intervention.”

        Amazing that the Hunt Brothers managed to survive that epic wipe-out and still live well.

        2. Only because Jim Sinclair liquidated their holdings and managed the family business.
          I know Jim Sinclair personally.
          He’s one of the finest.

          1. The Hunt Brothers took physical possession of their Silver rather than hold futures, so they couldn’t unwind their Silver holdings fast enough without triggering a sell-off and plunge in value.

          2. IIRC the Hunts went heavily into leverage to buy all that silver. TPTB changed the leverage rules to destroy the Hunts.

            The gang at Wall Street Silver — an offshoot of Wall Street “Gamestop” Bets — is taking a different tack. They are buying physical silver with spare cash. No futures, no leverage.

          3. The gang at Wall Street Silver

            Aside from the guiding force of groupthink, why do you have to join a gang to buy silver with spare cash? I did that alone 50 years ago.

          4. I haven’t joined the WSS gang; I was dabbling in this before WSS as well. I’m just saying that WSS is doing the same thing the Hunts did, only very slowly and less risky. If you buy physical metal with spare cash, there are no futures to cancel, no margins to call, no need to sell, no price spikes, and no justification be called in front of Congress.

            The advantage of WSS is that there are 160K of them. If each WSS member bought 350 ounces of physical silver with spare cash and put it in the closet, they would possess (outright) more physical silver than the Hunts did.

          5. Assuming banks operate like pharma, fines are just a cost of doing business and their schemes continue.

            JPMorgan Chase & Co. Agrees To Pay $920 Million in Connection with Schemes to Defraud Precious Metals and U.S. Treasuries Markets

            “According to admissions and court documents, between approximately March 2008 and August 2016, numerous traders and sales personnel on JPMorgan’s precious metals desk located in New York, London, and Singapore engaged in a scheme to defraud in connection with the purchase and sale of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts (collectively, precious metals futures contracts) that traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. and Commodity Exchange Inc., which are commodities exchanges operated by the CME Group Inc. In tens of thousands of instances, traders on the precious metals desk placed orders to buy and sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders before execution, including in an attempt to profit by deceiving other market participants through injecting false and misleading information concerning the existence of genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts. In addition, on certain occasions, traders on the precious metals desk engaged in trading activity that was intended to deliberately trigger or defend barrier options held by JPMorgan and thereby avoid losses.”

    2. Totally different game.
      No genuine comparison.
      The cabal changed the rules of margin — in the middle of the night — to corner the Hunts, who were beating them at their own game. .
      The cabal wins only by cheating lying stealing … making the rules, changing the rules.
      Zillow was just plunker stoopid.

  8. Austin, TX Housing Prices Crater 24% As Toxic Stew Of Subprime Mortgages And Mortgage Deliquenices Ravage Texas Capital

    https://www.movoto.com/tx/78730/market-trends/

    As one broker disclosed, “There are no bidding wars here nor has there ever been… It’s just something we deliberately misrepresent to get the buyer to pay far more.”

  9. ‘Zillow’s iBuying business loses money’

    A reader sent this in, and posters here have pointed these a$$ poundings out for a while:

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1450256550929436676?s=20

    Why couldn’t the REIC media ask, ‘if it’s so red hotcakes, why do you keep getting yer a$$ kicked quarter after quarter?’ And it wasn’t just these clowns, it was all of em. IIRC they were losing 40k per shack at one point.

    1. If all of the wasted billions from these zombie companies was actually put to good use, we could have a prosperous society. But that was never their intention. These billions weren’t “wasted” when you follow the money – the CEOs and all of the globalist sh!tbags made a killing and prospered.

  11. ‘It was a housing market frenzy just a few months ago with homes getting snatched up within hours and lots of buyers being forced to make some tough and risky decisions…Tulsa’s housing market could be slowing down after booming last year’

    How could this be possible in these sh$thole towns without rampant mortgage/appraisal fraud?

    1. ‘new homes were cheaper than existing properties in Auckland, Wellington, Tauranga, and Queenstown Lakes – sometimes by as much as $600,000’

      Same here. New shacks aren’t comps? When new is cheaper than existing it’s all over but the crying.

      1. “New shacks aren’t comps?”

        No more than new cars are comps for used cars. Generally new is better and the new product price is higher. When new homes are cheaper than used, don’t expect used home sellers to find buyers.

          3. “New is not better.”

            But a newer home is usually less expensive to insure with its deadbolt locks, ground fault interrupt electrical outlets in the bathrooms and kitchen, smoke alarms, etc., among other things.

          4. Non comparable by a Realtor’s definition, maybe. But Realtors aren’t the ones sitting in stop-n-go on I-66 or the Beltway every other day.

        2. “In China, most people prefer to buy apartments when prices are rising, not falling,’ Huang said.”

          no no noooo that’s stoopid BS! any logical person SELLS when rising then BUYS when falling.
          the emotional ones, aka real estate ken & karens do the opposite because Suzanne researched it.

        3. “generally new is better”
          I guess that depends on the location. In some areas, the only new construction is in the exurbs.

      2. “…new homes were cheaper than existing properties…”

        This happened in my flyover area as existing HELOC’d borrowers walked away as they were being undercut by new spec homes after the 2008 crash.

        1. Right. The conversations went something like “Hey honey, look at these new houses that are bigger than ours and asking $100,000 less. How are we going to find a buyer now?” #we’recooked

          1. Washington Mutual (WaMu) swept through our area like a plague, but over-leveraged they disappeared in 2008.

  13. The globalists and their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings are going all-out to permanently alter the demographics of the late, great America to assure a California-like permanent uni-party role for the Democrats so our transition to full Communism can commence. Heritage Americans, meet your replacements.

    Biden secretly flying underage migrants into NY in dead of night

    https://nypost.com/2021/10/18/biden-secretly-flying-underage-migrants-into-ny-in-dead-of-night/

    Planeloads of underage migrants are being flown secretly into suburban New York in an effort by President Biden’s administration to quietly resettle them across the region, The Post has learned.

    The charter flights originate in Texas, where the ongoing border crisis has overwhelmed local immigration officials, and have been underway since at least August, according to sources familiar with the matter.

    1. Replacement theory is not a theory, it is the Democrat Party blueprint for white genocide.

      Southern Poverty Law Center and the Anti Defamation League, take note that we are *naming names* specifically your names.

      You may have once, in the distant past, been “civil rights organizations” but that’s not what you are now.

      You hide behind your non-profit status and your phony credibility (that exists only in the minds of Real Journalists), but we don’t buy your lies.

      Globalists, know that the penalty for treason is DEATH ☠

      1. Biden secretly flying underage migrants into NY in dead of night

        By Miranda Devine, Jack Morphet, Kevin Sheehan, Christopher Sadowski and Bruce Golding

        October 18, 2021 9:08pm

        Planeloads of underage migrants are being flown secretly into suburban New York in an effort by President Biden’s administration to quietly resettle them across the region, The Post has learned.

        The charter flights originate in Texas, where the ongoing border crisis has overwhelmed local immigration officials, and have been underway since at least August, according to sources familiar with the matter.

        https://nypost.com/2021/10/18/biden-secretly-flying-underage-migrants-into-ny-in-dead-of-night/

  15. “…stopping purchases should help its bottom line, analyst Ygal Arounian said in a note. ‘This feels like they bought way too many homes and they’re trying to work off that excess supply,’”

    Maybe. We’ll see if they complete Operation Inventory Dump before valuations crater.

    2. Yahoo has been slowly unlocking the comments section again, but on articles that have nothing to do with politics, etc. Every time I see one, I post “Let’s go Brandon!” They have been deleting the comments, saying “your comment has been rejected.” Now why would a comment that is not vulgar be rejected? I think I know….

  17. ‘The Hollywood Hillview apartments had gone on the market in 2019, with the seller hoping to fetch $25M. In May 2020, the property returned to market with new representation targeting a sale price of $21M. The property was 75% vacant at the close of escrow, which will make repositioning easier.”’

    The only fetching is gonna be Cheetos and diet Coke while prices continue cratering.

    Giddyup!

    El Cajon, CA Housing Prices Crater 14% On Looming Tidal Wave Of Housing Inventory Across San Diego County

    https://www.movoto.com/el-cajon-ca/market-trends/

    1. Unfortunately, veterans getting phuc’d is nothing new. The labyrinth known as the VA Hospital system is a perfect example.

  19. “ You tell us that the kielbasa test gives false positives, and in the next breath you use the positive kielbasa tests to prove the vaccine doesn’t work. You can’t have it both ways.”

    To simplify, the point being made is that the data and the narrative are irreconcilable. If the tests work, then the kielbasa doesn’t or just barely or maybe even makes things worse. Those are the options that are left. If the tests don’t work, then the whole narrative is specious. It has nothing to do with “having it both ways” because if you accept the narrative you can’t have it either way with respect to the data.

    2. Not even zoo animals are safe from the insanity. This is just a short list.

      https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2021/10/16/lion-honolulu-zoo-dies-after-contracting-covid-case-prompting-broader-concern-facility/

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/09/17/animals-national-zoo-covid/

      https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/tiger-coronavirus-covid19-positive-test-bronx-zoo

      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/louisiana-zoo-animals-covid-vaccinate/

      https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2021/10/14/zootampa-administers-covid-vaccine-to-animals

      https://www.stlzoo.org/about/contact/pressroom/pressreleases/vaccinating-animals-against-covid-19

      https://www.wbaltv.com/article/maryland-zoo-animals-covid-19-vaccine/37595861

      https://6abc.com/philadelphia-zoo-covid-19-vaccine-animals-at-risk-100/11024911/

      https://www.wkyt.com/2021/09/24/louisville-zoo-animals-receive-coronavirus-vaccine/

    2. Just look at that bloated, red-faced, high-fructose-corn-syrup-laden, balding cvck of an anchor. How disgusting. And people watch that?

      1. bloated, red-faced, high-fructose-corn-syrup-laden,
        The Pandemic is obesity and Brian is the poster child for this lack of discipline which is causing many of today’s health issues. I had this discussion with my brother when discussing Covid. He totally disagreed, never mind he has type 2 diabetes and had a heart attack because of his being obese. No, the problem is the virus, not obesity. Again, I am NOT saying the virus is NOT an issue, it is, but being obese is the main driver of children’s ICU visits (see S. Dhand MD Oct. 7h You tube) and probably the main driver of adult visits as well. I have given up discussing this with him because curing obesity would require discipline, and God forbid, self-control at the dinner table. Let him and his obese wife do what they do.

        1. “The Pandemic is obesity and Brian is the poster child for this lack of discipline which is causing many of today’s health issues.”

          Agreed. Obesity is at an all-time high and as these folks age, we’ll see the strain on the medicare system go parabolic. One of my best Buddies lives alone (his wife passed a couple years back) and uses food as an escape. He should be around 140 lbs. ad is about 260lbs. He’ll buy a large cake and eat it within a couple days and wash it down with soda, which he consumes all day long. It’s sad to watch.

  21. As Evergrande Teeters, Chinese Media Walks a Fine Line
    Officials want to avert public panic about the property developer’s financial woes. But they also want to send a message to spendthrift corporations.
    A China Evergrande Group construction site in Dongguan in September.
    Credit…Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times
    By Vivian Wang
    Oct. 19, 2021, 4:30 a.m. ET
    阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版

    As China Evergrande Group teeters on the edge of collapse, videos of protesting home buyers have flooded social media. Online government message boards teem with complaints and pleas for intervention to save the huge property developer. The hashtag “What does Evergrande mean for the real estate market?” has been viewed more than 160 million times on one platform.

    But if trouble threatens for China’s economy, you wouldn’t know it from reading the country’s front pages.

    The name “Evergrande” has barely been mentioned by top state-run news outlets in recent weeks, even as the company’s uncertain fate has rattled global financial markets. Coverage of its recent troubles has been concentrated in a handful of business publications.

    Only on Friday did the country’s central bank comment on the company by name, more than a month after anxiety about its debt crisis began lighting up the Chinese internet — and then only to say the situation was under control.
    …

    2. “$1 brownie batter milkshake with a Texas double whopper at BK today. I was gonna get a 2 for $10 mix and match meal but the brownie batter shake looked much more appealing so I got two of those instead.”

      You’re a brave soul. My milkshake consuming days have long passed. Just the thought of consuming that much fat and sugar makes my gallbladder cringe, my liver scream and my intestines rumble in fear. LOL!!

    3. China leadership regarding Evergrande:

      “We must “save face” at all cost!”
      Translation: “We’ll lie about the severity of the problem.”
      Result: BOOM!!

      Yes ladies and gents, no amount of prayer, hope and/or attempts at deception are going to stop that big, fat, nasty Black Swan from coming home to roost.

      1. “Result: BOOM!!”

        That’s the last sound ever heard by the Chinese developer of Beijing Olympic Village and Airport back in the summer of 2008 who was later found guilty of corruption.

        1. Probably a good bet that the top brass at Evergrande have had their passports confiscated. Meanwhile the youthful firing squad members are busy cleaning their rifles.

    1. At this point we’re just waiting for him to make the “malaise” speech and tell us to put on a sweater. Get your disco ball out of storage, we’re back in business.

  23. CR8R

    Reuters
    U.S. homebuilding stumbles as supply constraints mount
    Lucia Mutikani
    October 19, 2021, 7:37 am

    1. Even the dullest of the sheeple must see by now what a sh*t-show this corrupt, incompetent, tyrannical administration is. FJB and f**k all you Democrat scum who voted for him.

      Psaki jokes the supply chain crisis is the ‘tragedy of the delayed treadmill’: Press secretary accused of downplaying scandal that’s prompted White House to ‘consider sending in the National Guard’

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10108747/Psaki-jokes-supply-chain-crisis-tragedy-treadmill-thats-delayed.html

  24. $1 brownie batter milkshake with a Texas double whopper at BK today. I was gonna get a 2 for $10 mix and match meal but the brownie batter shake looked much more appealing so I got two of those instead.

    1. “$1 brownie batter milkshake with a Texas double whopper at BK today. I was gonna get a 2 for $10 mix and match meal but the brownie batter shake looked much more appealing so I got two of those instead.”

      You’re a brave soul. My milkshake consuming days have long passed. Just the thought of consuming that much fat and sugar makes my gallbladder cringe, my liver scream and my intestines rumble in fear. LOL!!

  25. “So, they were just buying the house as is, not doing an inspection, you just get what you get. That was a little scary,’ Melanie Dawkins, with Red Door Realty, said.”

    Scary? No, Melanie, it was asinine.

  27. Eerie photos of abandoned Evergrande developments expose extent of crisis facing China

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/eerie-photos-of-abandoned-evergrande-developments-expose-extent-of-crisis-facing-china/news-story/59bc4727f1e9fc32c87764ce77c5047b

    Major development projects abandoned by Evergrande as the company teeters on the brink of ruin expose the sheer scale of China’s crisis.

    The Chinese property behemoth started dominating global headlines in recent weeks after emerging as the worlds most indebted real estate firm, racking up staggering debts of $A408 billion.

    The sheer magnitude of both the company itself and its potential downfall sparked concern it could become China’s “Lehman moment”, with experts fearing it could trigger a worldwide financial crisis and cause a contagion, ultimately dragging down other companies and sectors.

    1. “Along with the NOAA Commissioned Officer Corps, the Public Health Service Commissioned Corps is one of two uniformed services that consist only of commissioned officers and has no enlisted or warrant officer ranks, although warrant officers have been authorized for use within the service.[11] Officers of the commissioned corps are classified as noncombatants, unless directed to serve as part of the military by the president or detailed to a service branch of the military.[12] Members of the commissioned corps wear uniforms modeled after the United States Navy and the United States Coast Guard, with special PHS Commissioned Corps insignia, and hold naval ranks equivalent to officers of the Navy and Coast Guard, along with corresponding in-service medical titles. Commissioned corps officers typically receive their commissions through the commissioned corps’s direct commissioning program.” —wiki

  32. TSMC building a FAB in Phoenix. I watched a youtube video on it not bad either. Also Intel is building a new fab trying to catch up soon phoenix will be FAB city . Thirsty work uses lots of water but hey its a desert lots of water right

    2. “TSMC building a FAB in Phoenix.”

      I would imagine that a seismically stable region is among the top priorities in chip manufacturing.

  33. If you haven’t read Unintended Consequences, by John Ross, do so.

    Then choose a target and take one out for the team.

    1. 10/9/2021 Price change $744,900 (-2%) $391/sqft
      Source: Zillow Offers
      9/24/2021 Price change $759,900 (-6.2%) $399/sqft
      Source: Zillow Offers
      9/2/2021 Listed for sale $809,900 (+1%) $425/sqft
      Source: Zillow Offers
      9/1/2021 This home was evaluated, repaired and prepared for listing by Zillow partners
      8/10/2021 Sold to Zillow $801,503 (+116.6%) $421/sqft
      Source: Public Record
      6/30/2010 Sold $370,000 (+111.4%) $194/sqft
      Source: Public Record
      12/16/1996 Sold $175,000

      You have to wonder what kind of drugs they’re on. They paid 800k, supposedly “fixed it up”, and put it back on the market for 9k more a month later? Even “the plan” was insanity.

    2. Image #23:
      The laundry room has the dryer on the left and the washer right, e.g., note the dryer vent and the washer’s discharge drain.

      1. With top loaders it must not have been much of an issue, but with a front loader hinged on the left it sucks. That’s my current setup.

  35. October 15th Zillow slashed their prices by as much as 5% on most their Phoenix listings. No bubble here right?

  36. One more Zillow gem. San Diego listing purchased in May by Zillow for 1,103,000. Now yours for 974,000 with repairs and improvements included. Yeah, I would stop buying houses too with those kind of losses. Most Z reductions were in October so MOM in November should be a huge shock to the housing system.

    1. It is difficult to imagine a family taking on that level of debt, and moreover a lender approving it. Without government guarantees none of this would be possible, IMHO.

    2. That’s sounds like the one in Poway I posted, which I now can’t find as for sale or sold on Zillow.

  37. Are you worried that the Chinese real estate debt flu might become a highly contagious global pandemic, just like the wuflu did?

    1. October 13, 2021 8:05 AM CDT
      Last Updated 7 days ago
      China
      Chinese property firms suffer fresh downgrades amid Evergrande crisis
      By Andrew Galbraith and Marc Jones
      4 minute read
      The China Evergrande Centre building sign is seen in Hong Kong, China September 23, 2021. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
      Men ride bicycles past construction sites near the headquarters of China Evergrande Group in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China September 26, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song
      Summary
      — Greenland and E-house suffer fresh rating downgrades
      — Kaisa Group’s bonds slump to 35 cents on the dollar
      — Investment grade bond spreads rise as contagion spreads
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd
      Evergrande share trading halt pushes HKEX suspensions to record $61bn
      Hong Kong’s reputation has been hit by indebted developer’s lack of updates
      The China Evergrande Centre in Hong Kong
      Evergrande halted trading of its Hong Kong-listed stock on October 4 citing a ‘possible general offer’ for its shares but has not yet disclosed any further details © Tyrone Siu/Reuters
      Hudson Lockett and Tabby Kinder in Hong Kong yesterday

      The prolonged suspension of Evergrande’s shares has helped push the value of frozen stocks in Hong Kong to a record US$61bn, throwing into stark relief the city’s limited shareholder protections.

      Troubled property developer Evergrande halted trading of its Hong Kong-listed stock and that of its property services unit on October 4, stating in an exchange filing from the latter that the move had been taken ahead of a “possible general offer” for its shares. But after more than two weeks, the company has yet to disclose anything else about the apparent deal, nor make any statement about five missed payments totalling more than $275m to international bondholders.

      Corporate governance professionals said the stonewalling of shareholders by Evergrande, whose high-profile liquidity crisis is being monitored by global markets, struck at Hong Kong’s reputation for providing a base for investing in China grounded in international financial norms.

      The suspension has also helped to push the value of shares under a trading halt to a record high of just over $61bn, according to Refinitiv data, up from just $3.9bn at the end of 2020.

      “Therein lies the downside to having a market where you do have a lot of listed companies with majority shareholding,” said Jane Moir, research director at the Asian Corporate Governance Association, referring to the ease with which controlling shareholders can freeze trading. “Minority shareholder rights are being eroded day by day . . . [Evergrande] is a barometer for Hong Kong.”

      A person close to some of Evergrande’s offshore bondholders described the lack of disclosure pertaining to its liquidity issues as “odd and out of line”.

      “It’s such a high-profile situation, it would be hard to think the exchange was not writing to the company [about the issue].”
      …

  39. Why do journalists, central bankers, and debt donkeys alike share a mortal fear of falling prices? Don’t they understand that price declines are a natural remedy for prices that previously rose too quickly for too long?

    1. UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2021
      Find out which cities have the greatest housing bubble risk and discover the latest housing market trends.
      05 Oct 2021

      The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index (PDF, 4 MB) analyses residential property prices in 25 major cities around the world. In this year’s edition, we discuss how housing prices in urban centers have continued to climb, which is noteworthy for two reasons. First, because city life has suffered a considerable blow from the pandemic and the rise of remote working. Second, because housing affordability in cities was already heavily strained even before the pandemic.

      And yet the lack of affordability of homeownership has evidently not been an obstacle to price increases. Record low financing costs and the entrenched expectation of long-term value gains have made owning a home so appealing that the price and debt level don’t seem to matter—however, this may prove to be a fallacy.
      …

    2. Property
      China’s housing price declines spread to more than half of provinces
      Debt-laden local governments scramble to defend key source of revenue
      Real estate brokerages in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.
      (Photo by Yusuke Hinata)
      IORI KAWATE, Nikkei staff writer
      October 14, 2021 05:30 JST

      BEIJING — Housing prices have fallen in a majority of China’s provinces for the first time in more than six years as the government tries to tame a real estate bubble, sending debt-laden local authorities rushing to put a floor under the declines.

      Sixteen out of 31 provincial-level divisions, which include cities directly administered by the central government, logged price declines in August, the most since March 2015, official data shows.
      …

    3. China’s new home prices down for first time in 6 years
      People walk past a construction site in Beijing, China, Oct. 19, 2021. (AFP Photo)
      by French Press Agency – AFP
      Oct 20, 2021 11:20 am

      Property prices in China edged down last month for the first time in six years, according to a data Wednesday.

      The fall came as the sector struggles under a government clampdown as default at several major developers added to contagion concerns from the Evergrande crisis.

      The latest reading follows official figures showing the real estate and construction industries shrank in the third quarter for the first time since the early stage of the pandemic, which acted as a huge drag on the world’s number two economy.

      Figures on Wednesday showed that the cost of new homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities saw a small decrease in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said without giving a precise percentage, though Bloomberg calculations found they dropped by around 0.08%.

      That represents the first drop since April 2015.

      Prices in the secondary market slipped 0.19%, a second monthly fall, Bloomberg said.

      The latest readings will be considered especially worrying as September is usually seen as a peak season for the home market, and emerge as property firms come under the spotlight after the government began clamping down on their borrowing.

      This has in turn limited their ability to press on with building and selling projects, putting even more pressure on their bottom lines.

      The biggest casualty of the crackdown is China Evergrande, one of the nation’s biggest property developers, which is teetering on the brink as it struggles under debts of more than $300 billion.

      The firm has missed several payments on its bonds and a 30-day grace period on an offshore note is up on Saturday, leaving investors concerned about what will happen. Still, it has managed to meet its domestic obligations.

      Fears that the firm could collapse and send shockwaves through the Chinese economy – and possibly globally – rattled markets earlier this month, though Beijing has said any fallout would be containable.

      Several domestic property rivals have in recent weeks already defaulted on debts and have seen their ratings downgraded.

      Hong Kong-listed Sinic Holdings became the latest to miss a payment, S&P Global Ratings said Wednesday.

      S&P said the latest non-payment would “trigger cross defaults and accelerate demands for repayment of the company’s other debts … some of which are already overdue.”

      Mid-sized competitor Fantasia also failed to meet obligations in recent weeks, which triggered downgrades to “selective default” by S&P and “-CCC” by Fitch Ratings.
      …

    4. Bubble watch: 1st dip in 7 months for Southern California home prices
      Median fell $1,000 in August to $680,000 after a six-month upswing from January’s $595,000 — a 14% jump
      STAFF GRAPHIC
      By Jonathan Lansner | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
      PUBLISHED: September 21, 2021 at 7:07 a.m. | UPDATED: September 21, 2021 at 9:27 a.m.
      “Bubble Watch” digs into trends that may indicate economic and/or housing market troubles ahead.

      Buzz: Southern California’s median home price increased for six straight months before falling in August. That six-month “winning streak” is fairly noteworthy because there have only been three longer streaks since 1988.

      Source: My trusty spreadsheet analyzed DQNews’ monthly median home price data — based on closed transactions — for six Southern California counties.

      The Trend

      Let’s first note that watching month-to-month changes isn’t a great comparison for long-term analysis. That’s because, since 1988, prices have risen during just 53% of the 392 months, so any single month’s price swing could be loosely viewed as a coin toss.

      That stated, the six-county median fell $1,000 in August to $680,000 following a six-month upswing from January’s $595,000 — a 14% jump. By the way, all of those six 2021 increases created new record highs.

      So when did we have longer winning streaks? (My apologies to house hunters who I know don’t see long upswings as “winning.”)

      Longest streak? Eight months ending in September 2012, in the early days of the Great Recession’s rebound. Prices rose 21% in the period.

      Next longest? Two seven-month streaks were both in the big-bubble period, ending August 2003 with a 21% gain; and through August 2005, which saw a 13% gain.

      There have been two other six-month upswings like 2021’s streak. One ended in July 1988, rising 12% near the end of the late 1980s bubble; and another ending in July 2017, which saw a 10% rise.

      The Dissection

      Simply put, such extended upswings happen slightly more than 1% of the time — so they’re a true rarity.
      …

    5. California Housing Market 2021: Home prices Are Moderating
      October 19, 2021 by Marco Santarelli

      The California housing market moderated for the fourth month in a row in September 2021. After a busy summer, the state’s housing market continues to stabilize. After setting another record in August, California’s median house price fell to $808,890 in September, down 2.3 percent from $827,940 in August. September’s price was 13.5 percent more than last September’s $712,430, according to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).

      The median price in California remained above the $800,000 benchmark for the sixth consecutive month but the double-digit price year-over-year price gain was the smallest in 14 months. However, September saw a recovery in existing house sales which reversed a four-month slump. September’s monthly sales pace was up 5.6 percent from 414,860 in August but down 10.5 percent from a year earlier, when 489,590 houses were sold. The month-over-month rise was the highest since August 2020, and despite continuing declines from the previous year, statewide sales increased 16.8 percent on a year-to-date basis.
      …

        1. Except the median lies. In my local area (SF East Bay), I’ve found price reductions of $24K, $30K, $46K, and even $100K – for <$1M houses. Overall, 10-15% of houses have been price reduced in the last 30 days.

    6. The Financial Times
      Chinese economy
      China new home prices hit by first month-on-month fall since 2015
      Data reveal price decline in big cities in September as weakness in real estate sector reverberates
      The Evergrande changqing community in Wuhan, China
      China’s economy has long relied on the property sector but the industry is now confronting rising defaults and slower activity
      © Getty Images
      Thomas Hale, William Langley and Andy Lin in Hong Kong
      3 hours ago

      Prices of new homes across China’s biggest cities fell in September, the first month-on-month decline since April 2015 and a sign that sustained weakness across the country’s real estate industry was feeding through into the property market.

      Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed new home prices dropped in more than half of the 70 cities it surveyed compared with August. Goldman Sachs’ analysis of the figures found a 0.5 per cent decline in prices on an annualised basis after including seasonal adjustments.

      The data will add to pressure on policymakers, who have sought to cool the country’s vast real estate sector but are confronting rising defaults and slower activity across a sector that has anchored economic growth for years.
      …

  40. WSJ News Exclusive
    In Tackling China’s Real-Estate Bubble, Xi Jinping Faces Resistance to Property-Tax Plan
    After negative feedback from within the party, an initial proposal to test a property tax in some 30 cities has been significantly scaled down
    By Lingling Wei
    Oct. 19, 2021 9:39 am ET
    Efforts by Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, to tame a market that has been in an extended boom has already sent shock waves across the country’s economy.
    GREG BAKER/agence france-presse/getty images

    Chinese President Xi Jinping has made no secret of his desire to deflate China’s property bubble. But according to people with knowledge of government deliberations, he is facing resistance over a measure aimed at curbing housing speculation: a nationwide property tax.

    Many economists and analysts have long argued that such a tax could make it more expensive to speculate on property and help bring down prices. That would help reduce the financial burden on middle-class families, in line with Mr. Xi’s goal of a more even distribution of wealth.

    China has experimented with a tax on some properties in just a couple of cities during the past decade. Earlier this year, Mr. Xi assigned to Han Zheng, the most senior of China’s four vice premiers, the task of rolling out the levy much more widely, these people say.

    But Beijing is now settling for a limited tax plan because of strong pushback, while a proposal involving state-provided affordable housing is emerging as an alternative.

    Mr. Xi’s efforts to tame a market that has been in an extended boom for four decades has already sent shock waves across the Chinese economy and global markets. He has shown little mercy to China Evergrande Group, even as the heavily indebted property developer teeters on default. Other private developers that have binged on debt are also being squeezed. Home sales are falling and banks are pulling back on new lending. The impact from property tightening contributed to a sharp slowing in China’s growth in the third quarter.

    China’s property bubble has gotten bigger over the years. Home prices have consistently risen faster than actual economic growth, driving more credit into real-estate speculation, further pushing up property values. Authorities in recent years have repeatedly tried to break the vicious cycle with various tightening measures only to loosen them whenever growth appears threatened.

    Now, Mr. Xi appears bent on putting in practice his slogan: “Housing is for living, not for speculation.”
    …

    1. SURREAL ESTATE
      A researcher who foresaw Evergrande’s troubles says it’s a pyramid scheme
      CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS / REUTERS
      Evergrande’s unfinished Oasis housing complex in Luoyang, China
      By Samanth Subramanian
      Published September 22, 2021

      When Anne Stevenson-Yang lived in China in the 1990s and 2000s, she went on long weekend bike rides from her home near the airport, and she’d see the ghost towers: “an endless inventory of office parks and apartments, all empty.” She saw more developments mushroom after she moved to the US in 2014, when she made monthly work trips to China. As the co-founder of J Capital Research, which publishes reports on Chinese listed companies, she was intrigued by these projects. At first, she thought: If there were so many empty new buildings in Beijing—a city of high demand for housing and high incomes—what was it like in other places? On her travels through China, she saw ghost towns all over. She took photos and put them up on a web site, calling the images “Eye candy for pessimists.”

      These unoccupied buildings, Stevenson-Yang realized, were the most visible signs of a swelling real estate bubble—the bubble that China has been attempting to control, and that has led to a danger of default by Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers. Over the years, Evergrande has run up around $300 billion in debt. In a 2017 interview, Stevenson-Yang called it “the biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen.” But Evergrande’s troubles were obvious even 10 years ago, Stevenson-Yang told Quartz. “It’s just been holding on, somehow, for 10 years.”
      …

    2. One Of The Strangest Things In The World Are These Giant Empty “Ghost Cities” In China
      Chief
      9/21/2021 2:40 PM

      Eddie and I talked about this growing crisis in China this week on Dogwalk. It looks like China is going through what the United States and then subsequently the rest of the Western world went through in 2008 with Lehman Brothers: A massive housing crisis that is going to ripple it’s way through the economy if the government doesn’t step in and bail them out. Big problem related to too many houses and not enough demand while also having the main company in the crosshairs, Evergrande, defaulting on debt taken out to start these houses complexes.

      What I can’t understand is how this is just an issue NOW. China is littered with what people call “Ghost Cities” all over the country. Like this picture that looks like Paris complete with the Eiffel Tower is a deep fake Paris in China. A Paris that NOBODY even lives in.

      China took a “if you build it they will come” approach to these cities and nobody came.
      …

    3. ‘Now, Mr. Xi appears bent on putting in practice his slogan: “Housing is for living, not for speculation.”’

      Well then, they’ve got us beat there.

  41. The Financial Times
    Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann to step down
    Central banker has been vocal critic of ultra-loose monetary policy
    Jens Weidmann, pictured in February 2019
    Jens Weidmann recently warned that the ECB is in danger of underestimating inflationary pressures and said it could be hard for the central bank to stop its bond-buying programme
    © Bloomberg
    Martin Arnold 29 minutes ago

    Jens Weidmann has decided to step down after a decade as head of Germany’s central bank in a move that comes only weeks after the country’s general election and shortly before a crucial decision on the future of eurozone monetary policy.

    Since he joined the Bundesbank, Weidmann has been one of the most vocal critics of the ultra-loose monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank, where he fought an often lonely battle against its bond-buying and negative interest rate policies.

    Weidmann told Bundesbank employees in a letter that he had decided to step down at the end of the year, adding: “I have come to believe that more than 10 years is a good time to start a new chapter — for the Bundesbank, but also for me personally.”

    The move, less than two years after Weidmann’s mandate was extended for another eight-year team, comes as German political parties are still locked in negotiations to form the country’s first three-party ruling coalition.

    Weidmann worked as an adviser to chancellor Angela Merkel before his appointment to run the Bundesbank in 2011 and his decision to resign means they look set to leave office around the same time.

    Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democrat party had its worst-ever result in last month’s election and is set to go into opposition for the first time in 16 years.

    As the longest-serving member of the ECB’s governing council, and one of its most “hawkish” voices in favour of a conservative approach to monetary policy, the 53-year-old’s departure opens the door to a potential further shift in favour of the central bank’s “dovish” majority.

    Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said: “The new German government will likely appoint a less hawkish successor,” adding that it could choose Isabel Schnabel, Germany’s recent appointment to the ECB executive board, “or somebody with similar mainstream views”.
    …

  42. The Mask is starting to come off.

    fjb

    “Time for some new, more realistic expectations,”

    “American consumers, their expectations pampered and catered to for decades, are not accustomed to inconvenience.”

    Micheline Maynard
    Washington Post

    2. their expectations pampered

      Prepare to be inconvenienced, and like it.

      FJB, and the commies that dragged him in.

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