skip to Main Content
thehousingbubble@gmail.com

Trees Don’t Grow Tall Forever

A report from Fox South Carolina. “Greenville continues to be a relocation destination as experts predict an 11% increase in home sales this year. ‘We’re going to be in a seller’s market for decades, decades,’ said Thomas Cheves, a Coldwell Banker Caine realtor.”

From WKRN in Tennessee. “It’s a constant cycle: we build, they come.New data from Apartment Insiders shows Nashville is projected to have the highest percentage of growth in apartment inventory in 2022 compared to all other U.S. markets. About 21,000 units are currently under construction in Nashville, with about half being delivered this year. Apartment construction in Nashville is the highest it’s ever been and has been on a steady growth pattern since 2018. ‘Nashville has proven that if apartments are built, people will lease them,’ said Joel Sanders CEO, Apartment Insiders.”

The Destin Log in Florida. “Apartments seem to be popping up everywhere in Destin, but also going up is the rent. ‘The new year has brought some much-needed relief to the rental market,’ said Rob Warnock, senior research associate at Apartment List. Across the nation, rent prices fell 0.2% last month, representing the country’s first measurable price decline since 2020. ‘This, of course, comes after a period of tremendous rent growth, when prices rose nearly 18% in less than a year. So, prices remain high, but have turned a corner.'”

From WFLA. “Rent prices around the Tampa Bay area are going up as fast as new apartment complexes. University of South Florida economics instructor Chris Jones says the number of new apartment complexes being built will eventually saturate the market and help with the correction. ‘I don’t see this as a new normal. Do I think we’re going to see a massive 30% to 40% contraction on home values to the degree back in 2008-09? No,’ Jones said. ‘I don’t think it’s going to dip that much, but 10% to 15% over the next 24 months, I think, is real.'”

From WGRZ. “The loss of some protection from eviction and foreclosure in New York is likely to have far-reaching impacts on families at the edge of homelessness. ‘Renters have expressed for a long time now, they are simply waiting to evict, and we know half a million New Yorkers are behind in rent,’ said Luanne Firestone, the executive director at Family Promise of WNY.”

The San Francisco Examiner in California. “Just two years ago, San Francisco was one of the fastest-growing cities in the country. Since then, it’s become one of the weakest by almost every economic metric. ‘There was a big drop in migration, and that really hasn’t come back yet’ said Ted Egan, San Francisco’s chief economist, noting that strong data on pandemic population change doesn’t yet exist. ‘So you wouldn’t expect rents to come back.’ Prices for purchasing single-family homes and condos are also ‘weaker in some places, but not as bad as in rents,’ according Egan.”

From Mansion Global. “A sprawling megamansion within the upmarket coastal Californian enclave of Malibu has just slashed its price by $30 million—though it remains the most expensive home on the market in the oceanside city. Now asking $85 million, the wedge-shaped estate is being sold by David Saperstein, who debuted the vast compound on the market in early 2020 for $115 million, records show.”

The Coeur d’Alene Press in Idaho. “It was just last year The Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com announced that Coeur d’Alene was the nation’s top housing market. Little has changed. The Lake City remains among the country’s most in-demand places to live and it’s not expected to cool off this year. Lindsay Allen, CAR president, agreed that even in the generally slower winter housing market, it’s busy. It’s not what it was a year ago, buyers are not as aggressive, and there have been some price reductions, but ‘it’s still crazy with competition among buyers.'”

“Chad Oakland of Northwest Realty Group said he doesn’t think the housing market can remain as it is. As a friend told him, ‘trees don’t grow tall forever.’ ‘Something needs to happen. We can all agree on that,’ Oakland said.”

From Bloomberg. “The era of historically low interest rates, which inflated Canadians’ wealth and facilitated their spending, is coming to an end. Home prices have risen 41% since policy makers slashed interest rates to the emergency lows in March 2020. Total private and public debt outside of the financial sector, meanwhile, has risen by more than C$1 trillion ($802 billion) to C$8.1 trillion through June last year.”

“That represents about 345% of gross domestic product, the sixth highest among the more than 40 rich economies tracked by the Bank for International Settlements. How the economy will react to higher borrowing costs remains unknown. ‘We can’t guarantee a soft landing, but decisions made by the Bank of Canada very soon will go a long way toward determining whether we stand a chance,’ Derek Holt, an economist at Scotiabank, said in a report to investors. ‘Canada is indeed at a fork in the road.'”

From Reuters. “Property bubbles in parts of Europe may force banking regulators to put curbs on lending and cool a market that has been growing rapidly despite a pandemic-induced recession, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said. ‘The situation of overvaluations in certain residential markets is becoming more and more pervasive, and this is a source of concern for us,’ de Guindos told a financial conference. ‘We have to start to take into consideration the possibility of implementing again macroprudential measures in the banking space,’ he added.”

From Bloomberg. “China’s third largest developer by sales received its second credit downgrade in as many days, highlighting concerns over builders once perceived as safer bets. Fitch said Thursday that Sunac’s access to debt capital markets is ‘largely closed.’ The builder sold shares at a 15% discount earlier this month, sending its shares and dollar bonds plunging. The firm subsequently announced it had no short-term plan to issue any further shares.”

This Post Has 114 Comments
  1. ‘access to debt capital markets is ‘largely closed’

    I find it interesting that the media never reflects on what kicked this all off. Evergrande was using pre-sales to finance the next round of construction. Basically a ponzi scheme based on airboxes that hadn’t even started.

  2. ‘We can’t guarantee a soft landing’

    There has never been a soft landing in a bubble. Kda is especially fooked as they let this go on far too long.

    1. And my kid just moved to C’dAlene and bought last month in December….almost nothing down. And continues to own in Gilbert, Az doing the Airbnb to pay the mortgage. To his credit, he is substantially making positive cash flow on his Airbnb. For the time being. When I told him months ago a few of our clients (Escrow firm owner) were crushed in Seattle when travel stopped and zero income from Airbnb….welp, in one ear out the other. I understand the “nothing ever goes down” mentality of young people as I was there at their age as well…..until I had the living hell financially kicked out of me in 89-90 real estate correction. That was peanuts compared to the 07-09 correction that took years to recover. This coming correction is going to be worse. I hope I’m wrong.

      1. “And my kid…”

        Does he have a college degree to generate income while the real economy suffers a contraction?

        1. Does he have a college degree to generate income
          Or a skill like plumbing/welding?
          I know/knew several “college graduates” (including my nephew)working at food stores and Lowes/Home Depot stocking shelves.
          College is way overrated if you get a Gender studies/Sociology degree!

          1. It has reached the point where it’s a waste of time and money if you are not pursuing a STEM degree.

          2. Even STEM degrees are somewhat overrated as far as being able to generate pecuniary rewards straight out of college. Not all STEM degrees are created equal either, e.g. pure mathematics is a liberal art on the same level as philosophy.

  3. Today is the last day of Moving Week.

    I did not like the way the neighborhood around my old building was changing, so I asked the property management company to break my lease and move to another rental in a building they also manage located less than two miles away.

    Loanowners can’t do this.

    Loanowners are prisoners of their debt.

    Loanowners have no mobility, no freedom…

      1. Yes.

        My next decade of tasks may or may not include: driveway, fence, septic, solar power, RV and/or cabin. With no debt, ALL CASH.

  4. New York Post — Why shoplifting is soaring across the US — and will only get worse (1/22/2022):

    “Shoplifting no longer fits its traditional mold as a nonviolent crime perpetrated mostly by teens or substance-abusing adults. Nearly two-thirds of the retailers surveyed by the National Retail Federation said that violence associated with store thefts has risen, led by organized gangs that resell the goods they steal. Like retailers, top law-enforcement officials place some of the blame for the crime surge on a widespread lessening of penalties for shoplifting.

    California’s recent headline-making “flash mob” shoplifting sprees have brought widespread attention to Proposition 47 — a 2014 state ballot initiative, supported by a range of left-leaning and libertarian groups, which, among other things, boosted the felony threshold for shoplifting from $450 of merchandise to $950. Soon after it passed, retailers in California began reporting a sharp uptick in retail theft, often in plain view of helpless store personnel and distressed customers.

    What has received far less attention, however, is the fact that California’s Prop. 47 was not an outlier among states. In the past 10 years, nearly half of all states have boosted their thresholds for retail felony theft. Thirty-eight states now don’t consider shoplifting a felony unless $1,000 or more of merchandise gets stolen. A 2020 National Retail Federation report on organized retail crime found that two-thirds of retailers in states that had raised their felony shoplifting minimums reported growing retail theft.”

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/22/why-shoplifting-is-soaring-in-the-us-and-will-get-worse/

    And what the article does not mention, but that we can discuss here without censorship, is that the majority of the thieves are black males in their teens and 20s who grew up without fathers.

    This is the future that the Cloward-Piven Strategy promised, being implemented exactly as planned.

    1. What globalist media outlets can’t and won’t say is that the criminal element is quick to recognize when fellow criminals (D) control City Hall, the police, and the judiciary, they have a green light to cavort with impunity. Look at all the cities with Soros-installed DAs, where crime is going through the roof. The criminal underclass knows intuitively that when the electorate is sufficiently morally and intellectually debased to give the Democrats – a criminal enterprise masquerading as a political party – a monopoly on the levers of power, the vibrants have free rein to go about their “redistribution of the wealth” and targeting the melanin-deficient for carjacking, strong-armed robbery, and murder.

    2. “…resell the goods they steal.”

      Shoplifters used to steal things they needed or wanted for themselves. These hordes of blacks steal for resale to a fence.

      1. Youth for Biden are merely practicing the “redistribution of the wealth” that is a central tenet of their party’s collectivist ideology. As long as they focus of “woke” companies like Apple and Nike, they should be free to go about their wholesale theft, er, redistribution, with impunity. They should also be given the home addresses of Democrat mega-donors so they can give the latter the opportunity to put their collectivist ideology into practice.

    3. I saw it in my own neighborhood in San Diego which is an above average location. I was at the register in rite aid and a guy just walked out with a cart full of stuff without paying. No one did anything. It was a white guy though, looked in his late twenties and early thirties dressed normally, not like transient or homeless person on the streets.

    4. “Proposition 47 — a 2014 state ballot initiative, supported by a range of left-leaning and libertarian groups”

      I’d like to know which libertarian groups he’s referring to. The ACLU?

  5. This is a pearl clutching article.

    The Guardian — Fox News host Tucker Carlson compares vaccine mandates to ‘Nazi experiments’ (1/22/2022):

    “The Fox News host Tucker Carlson has compared coronavirus vaccine mandates imposed by Joe Biden’s government to medical experiments conducted by Nazi Germany and imperial Japan.

    “I thought that we had a kind of consensus,” Carlson said on Friday.
    “I mean, after watching what the imperial Japanese army and the Nazis did in their medical experiments, I thought that American physicians agreed that compulsory medical care was unethical, it was immoral and it could never be imposed on anyone. When did we forget that?”

    https://archive.fo/PdqkC

    The targeted audience of this article is intended to by outraged by this, which they will be, because they have been effectively programmed with Mass Formation Psychosis. Archive link provided because we do not give clicks or revenue to globalist rags like The Guardian.

    See also — Dr. Robert Malone (12/9/2021):

    https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/mass-formation-psychosis

  6. Hey collaborators. Did you realize how easy it is to find your address? When you walk your dog? Where you shop or fill up the tank? That swanky place you expense your lunch?

    We know.

    1. Soft Targets.

      A good example of “Soft Targets” are Blue Checkmark Twitter loudmouths. Not celebrities, but middle-tier “influencer” types.

      And what’s even better is that the greater their support of unscientific medical tyranny (that is now crossing the tipping point into genocide), the less likelihood that they will be armed.

      This blog is just Too Much Fun 🙂

      1. Regarding intel gathering. I have noticed a preponderance of .gov sites, even small counties, blocking access through my Proton VPN.

        Well that won’t stop my address collection efforts Glowies. And remember, while you’re here, a real man is pounding your wife.

  7. ‘We’re going to be in a seller’s market for decades, decades,’ said Thomas Cheves, a Coldwell Banker Caine realtor.”

    🤣🤣🤣

    How many times did REIC clowns invoke shortsighted exhortations pre-2006….. only to find themselves 18 months later eating their words and shitting all over themselves making excuses while they and their co-perpetrators rush to hire the best attorney they could find?

    Arvada, CO Housing Prices Crater 23% YOY As Colorado Housing Prices Drop Like A Rock

    https://www.movoto.com/arvada-co/market-trends/

  8. Why should the feds step in to help Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned cities that are reaping what they voted?

    Eric Adams demands help from Washington after cops shot

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/23/mayor-eric-adams-demands-help-from-d-c-after-cops-shot/

    Mayor Eric Adams demanded assistance Sunday from Washington D.C. to block the “constant flow” of firearms into the Big Apple, days after an NYPD cop was killed and another officer was left fighting for his life after they were shot — declaring “the federal government must step in.”

    “The police department is doing their job taking thousands of guns off the streets, yet each time you take a gun off, there’s a constant flow of new guns coming here,” he said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

  9. For the globalists & their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings, the destruction of the nuclear family is key to their plans to grow the dependency classes into a permanent Democrat supermajority. Naturally, the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) in our NEA indoctrination mills are following their idol Lenin’s admonitions about inculcating Communism in children as a means to capture the future.

    Denver Elementary School Teaching Kids to ‘Disrupt the Nuclear Family’ and Support BLM

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/denver-elementary-school-teaching-kids-disrupt-nuclear-family-support-blm/

  10. We knew this was coming.

    Now two shots isn’t good enough? CDC warns it is about to ‘pivot’ its language on COVID vaccinations and everyone must get a booster to be considered ‘up to date’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430989/CDC-warns-pivot-language-COVID-19-vaccines.html

    The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has announced that it will ‘pivot’ its language when it comes to COVID-19 vaccinations, meaning that all who are eligible will need booster shots to be considered fully ‘up to date.’

    CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, 52, announced at a White House press conference on Friday that the organization is working on ‘pivoting the language’ to match those of other vaccines.

    1. pivot

      Translation: move the goal posts.

      So how many months until a second booster is “recommended”? March, April?

      How long until other “information” is tied to those QR codes? We all know they would love to require proof of jabbing to enter a grocery store.

      1. So I just read the text of the Biden EO requiring vaccination for fedgovs. The order only says “vaccination,” and is silent on what vaccination means.

        So my question is, if the CDC continually changes the definition of “fully vaccinated,” is the new definition automatically included under Biden’s original executive order for fedgovs? What if the CDC defines fully vaccinated as three shots, an additional Omicron-specific shot, a QR code, a first-born, and a pony? Do all the Fedgovs have to comply with all of that too? I don’t think this continual shifting would make it through the court system.

        1. make it through the court system.

          It’s already not making it through the court system. Judge Brown, two days ago.

        2. For those intelligent enough not to be medically experimented upon it doesn’t matter what definition is used.

          For you? Good luck keeping up.

        3. A U.S. District Judge in Texas ruled on Friday that President Joe Biden could not require federal employees to be vaccinated against the coronavirus and blocked the U.S. government from disciplining employees who failed to comply.

          1. I believe the Texas judge only injuncted the enforcement because of the pending litigation — basically just buying time. Probably another Supreme Court case in the making.

            FYI, I have two J&J shots, so even Rochelle The Pivoteer is placated … for now. What I am afraid of is that Pfizer will come out with their Omicron-specific booster shot in March and Biden will force Fed-govs to get that one too. I wouldn’t have the option of taking the “safer” J&J shot.*

            Until now, the courts have been punting cases with smaller rulings about Osha’s powers. But at some point, somebody needs to look at larger questions of just how far the Executive authority goes. The EO repeatedly mentions the Delta variant and “other variants,” but what if Delta is gone and other variants aren’t producing the hospitalizations, especially in Fedgovs who are already vaxxed and boosted? How long can Biden and HHS extend the Health Emergency just to keep powers and control? We didn’t have health emergencies for flu; shouldn’t we use the same hospitalization and death rates for Omicron/COVID as we do for flu?** Can the EO pre-emptively force a vaccine for cases that haven’t happened yet (like next fall)?

            ————-
            *J&J has said that they have the tech to develop an Omicron-specific shot, but they will only proceed if they think it’s needed. Even if they do proceed, Pfizer will certainly get there first, as usual.
            ** In which case, somebody needs to sort out that “for COVID” vs. “with COVID” question once and for all.

          2. oxide…it’s not too late to realize you’ve been fully swindled.

            I know many any your position. The only way out is to get your finances in order, disconnect from the system and get ready to say NO.

          3. the Texas judge only injuncted

            Is that a word? Perhaps enjoined or issued an injunction?

            I’m pretty sure we can’t predict what our corporate/government partnership will try on us. Logic will not be the guide

            The “with vs from” thing has been in clear sight the whole time. Does CNN talking about it lately mean it needs to be resolved?

          4. smaller rulings

            Roberts’ legacy

            somebody needs to look at larger questions

            YOU! The government and courts have clearly demonstrated that they don’t care about your best interests.

          5. “with vs from” thing has been in clear sight the whole time

            The concept has been known, but it hasn’t mattered until now. I’ll use flu as a comparison. The hospitalization rate for wild type, Alpha, and Delta were all much higher than that of flu. Even if you exclude the incidental hospitalizations, the rate was still higher than flu. So with/for didn’t matter as much. But since the hospitalization rate for Omicron is lower (whether because of vax or prior infection or Omicron itself), taking out the incidental hospitalizations drastically reduces the hospitalization rate, by as much as half in some states. If that rate of “for Omicron” is as low as that of flu, there will be less justification for emergencies and mandates.

            I still think it’s going to be a moot point in a couple months anyway. Most people will have been exposed to Omicron by then. So if a young man goes to the ER for a broken leg, he will test negative for Omicron simply because he had already had Omicron the month before. The incidentals will dwindle to near 0, and the only Omicron patients in hospitals will be high-risk and co-morbid.

          6. The concept has been known, but it hasn’t mattered

            I’ve seen chickens pick kernels of corn out of cow patties. To them, the turd didn’t matter. To us it should.

            Testing everyone going into the hospital and calling all the positives covid “patients” is a total lie. We will never know how many of them were actual cases of Covid being treated. Never. How you draw conclusions out of cow patties is simply amazing.

          7. “I believe the Texas judge only injuncted the enforcement because of the pending litigation”

            How does one get an injunction when there isn’t pending litigation?

          8. pending litigation

            IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
            FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS
            GALVESTON DIVISION

            No. 3:21-cv-356

            FEDS FOR MEDICAL FREEDOM, ET AL., PLAINTIFFS,
            v.
            JOSEPH R. BIDEN, JR., ET AL., DEFENDANTS.

          9. RPRH- Sorry I should have said:

            Oxide, How exactly does one get an injunction when there ISN’T pending litigation?

  11. To the anti-mandate protestors in Le Cesspool Grande this weekend: if anyone tries to incite violence, ask to see their FBI badge number.

    Federal officials to monitor Washington anti-vaccine-mandate rally for potential violence and extremist activity

    https://news.yahoo.com/federal-officials-to-monitor-wasington-anti-vaccine-rally-for-potential-violence-and-extremist-activity-223850442.html

    Federal law enforcement in Washington, D.C., has been closely monitoring social media for signs of potential violence and extremist activity ahead of a widely publicized demonstration against vaccine mandates this weekend, according to documents obtained by Yahoo News.

    “Defeat the Mandates: An American Homecoming” is being billed as a peaceful gathering to promote unity among people who oppose COVID-19 vaccine requirements implemented across the country in an effort to mitigate the impact of the ongoing pandemic. The event is scheduled to take place on the National Mall this Sunday, Jan. 23, beginning with a march from the Washington Monument to the Lincoln Memorial, followed by a rally featuring speeches from several prominent anti-vaccine advocates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose nonprofit advocacy organization, Children’s Health Defense, is one of the event’s sponsors.

    1. If they’re all wearing khakis and carrying matching shields, they are on the payroll Alphabet Agency Glowboys, and while they are out getting paid to march, Chad is giving their wives the proper plowing that those cucks never could.

      Let’s Go Brandon!

  12. The children of AIPAC stooges are never sent to be killed or maimed in neocon military adventurism.

    Secretary of State Blinken refuses to rule out U.S. military involvement in Ukraine and warns of ‘massive consequences’ for Russia if it invades: Rejects calls to impose immediate sanctions because it would ‘undercut deterrence’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10432603/Antony-Blinken-doesnt-rule-military-involvement-Ukraine-Russia-conflict.html

    1. The children of AIPAC stooges are never sent to be killed or maimed in neocon military adventurism.

      Deplorables are expected to bleed and die in neocon wars.

      1. I’m looking forward to it. I’m positioned for a crash. In addition, a 70% crash would almost certainly lose the elections for the Dems, no matter how many ballots they print. The only hard part is watching all the job losses that would ensue. House prices would crash too, but I’m not too worried about that.

          1. Material Transfer Agreement between NIAID/Moderna and University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Ralph Baric as signatory) dated December 2019 for mRNA coronavirus vaccine candidates developed and jointly owned by NIAID and Moderna. ATTN: pp. 105-108.

            I’m familiar with these and confirmed a number of signatories to this particular agreement. This document looks authentic and raises a number of serious questions.

          2. Republicans

            I’m seeing chatter on Twitter that Rand Paul may have financial reasons for not going after Fauci harder.

          3. From what I’ve seen he’s basically called him a liar and a con man. I’m not sure how much harder he could be going after Fauci.

          4. As a taxpayer, I want to know why we’re paying for a genetically engineered virus as well as the vaccines. I also want to know what other viruses and vaccines, if any, have been created using taxpayer money. In addition to bureaucrat heads rolling, I want these bureaucracies gutted so this can’t happen again.

          5. how much harder

            Is Rand Paul talking about the 3 HIV inserts and the furin cleavage site with Moderna’s fingerprints?

          6. “As a taxpayer, I want to know why we’re paying for a genetically engineered virus as well as the vaccines. I also want to know what other viruses and vaccines, if any, have been created using taxpayer money. In addition to bureaucrat heads rolling, I want these bureaucracies gutted so this can’t happen again.”

            I totally agree. In addition I’d like to see a clear accounting of China’s timeline knowingly sealed-off Wuhan from the rest of China, but left their airport open with International flights occurring for a number of weeks, if not months, to infect the entire planet. WTF?

          7. a clear accounting of China’s timeline knowingly sealed-off Wuhan from the rest of China, but left their airport open with International flights occurring for a number of weeks, if not months, to infect the entire planet

            Peter Navarro’s In Trump Time: A Journal of America’s Plague Year, Chapter 13, A CCP Tragedy in Five Heinous Acts, Endnote 3. “Analysis of hospital traffic and search engine data in Wuhan China indicates
            early disease activity in the Fall of 2019
            . I have the book but have yet to read it.

        1. You ought to worry about that J&J shot you got.

          That and what you’ll wear when you line up for your Fed employee mandated booster. I suggest sheared fleece.

          1. J&J side effects usually show up right away, within 2 weeks. My booster was 3 months ago.

            The text of the Executive Order calls out Delta variant “and other variants” and specifically references the declaration of the Public Health Emergency. That was then, this is now. Omicron cases will decrease precipitously. Once we resolve the leftover Delta cases and subtract out the “with COVID” cases, the Omicron hospitalization rate promises(?) to be very low for vaxxed people. With no Delta and an Omicron hospitalization rate close to that of flu, there will be no justification to continue the Public Health Emergency or to enforce the EO, as currently written. Mandating boosters won’t survive the courts.

          2. &J side effects usually show up right away, within 2 weeks.

            How long were their clinical trials? What genotoxicity studies did they do? Reproductive toxicity and teratogenicity may not matter to you but those won’t show up in 2 weeks.

      1. “I am pretty sure that I wouldn’t feel anything.”

        Same. I’ll let out a big LMAO with a toldyaso.

  13. Goldman Sees “Risk” Of Fed Rate Hike At Every Meeting, Predicts $2.5 Trillion In Balance Sheet Shrinkage

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-risk-fed-rate-hike-every-meeting-predicts-25-trillion-qt

    (snip snip snip)

    “An interesting dynamic has emerged on Wall Street: on one hand, amid rising speculation that the Fed may hike as much as 50bps and/or announce an early end to the taper in this week’s FOMC meeting, some banks like JPMorgan are starting to see a ‘pivot’ emerge and in the bank’s latest Fed outlook, it said that the Fed ‘is only likely to ratify expectations next week and not surprise market participants with another hawkish pivot.’

    “The reason is that while the bank is certainly concerned about rising inflation, JPM is growing increasingly concerned about the slowdown in the economy, writing that the JPMorgan’s Economic Activity Surprise Index (EASI) ‘has swung sharply into negative territory in recent weeks, indicating data have underperformed relative to consensus expectations.’

    “It also why the bank slashed its GDP forecast and now predicts that ‘growth decelerated from a 7.0% q/q saar in 4Q21 to a trend like 1.5% in 1Q22’ amid a sharp slowdown in retail sales, the Empire Fed Manufacturing survey and the surge in initial claims. And while one can easily blame those on the now fading surge in Omicron cases, BofA’s Michael Hartnett made a more ominous observation, concluding that the ‘End of Pandemic = US Consumer Recession’ because ‘inflation is annualizing 9%, real earnings falling a recessionary 2.4%, stimulus payments to US households evaporating from $2.8tn in 21 to $660bn in 2022, with no buffer from excess US savings (savings rate = 6.9%, lower than 7.7% in 2019 & and the rich hoard the savings), and record $40bn MoM jump in borrowing in Nov’21 shows US consumer now starting to feel the pinch.’

    “And if the US consumer – responsible for 70% of GDP – is done, so is last year’s economic growth miracle. Which by the way is not lost on the market, where the divergence between market expectations for how many times the Fed can hike and the Fed’s own hawkish dot plot which sees a total ten 25bps rate hikes, is growing by the day. In fact, as shown by both OIS and the Fed Fund Futures, the market now expects the Fed to cut rates some time in 2024 (Incidentally, BofA’s Hartnett expects a recession scare in the second half of 2022 and the first rate cut in 2023, something the market is still behind the curve on).”

  14. It’s going to be comedy gold when all the crypto cultists realize at about the same time that 1) they’re holding digital gambling tokens with zero intrinsic value, and 2) the supply of Greater Fools willing to take their crypto off their hands for more than what they paid has just dried up.

    1. Don’t forget Tether! At some point someone — for example the DA for the Southern District of New York — is going to prove that Tether was the mother of all scams.
      1. Create fake tether and take in fools to back it and call it a stablecoin.
      2. Launder the tether into slightly less fake Bitcoin. Bonus: this creates a Ponzi-frenzi to drive up the demand for Bitcoin and thus the price.
      3. Launder the Bitcoin into even slightly less fake US dollars.
      4. Launder the US dollars into real assets such as property, art, classic cars, metals, superyachts, etc.

      And I think it’s significant that you used the phrase “comedy gold.” Was that subconscious?

  15. New Zealand cucks are paying the price for letting the Keynesian fraudsters at their central bank pursue even more loose & reckless monetary policies than the Fed.

    New Zealand Dollar Losses Set to Deepen Even as RBNZ Hikes Rates

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-23/new-zealand-dollar-losses-set-to-deepen-even-as-rbnz-hikes-rates?srnd=premium-asia&sref=ibr3A0ff

    The New Zealand dollar is turning vulnerable to further declines despite expectations of aggressive policy tightening from the nation’s central bank this year.

    That’s because the rates markets have fully priced in the bulk of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate hikes in 2022, leaving the kiwi susceptible to losses amid risks that the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening could turn even more hawkish.

    1. New Zealand cucks are paying the price for letting the Keynesian fraudsters at their central bank pursue even more loose & reckless monetary policies
      How long before the USD gets hit. One hedge fund manager was recently quoted as saying he believes the value of the dollar could fall 25%, but probably not until 2026-28.

      1. could fall 25%

        Aren’t most other fiat currencies in even worse shape?

        If by fall you mean 25% inflation then absolutely yes.

  16. The mayor says it is because of guns …

    “Mayor Eric Adams Begs For Federal Help As NYC’s Crime Problem Spirals Out Of Control”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mayor-eric-adams-begs-federal-help-nycs-crime-problem-spirals-out-control

    (a snip)

    “Since taking NYC’s top job, Adams has been confronted with a seemingly non-stop stream of high-profile violent crimes, including a subway-pusher who killed an Asian woman, unleashing a frenzy about security on the badly underfunded MTA.”

    Note: No gun was involved during this subway-pusher incident.

    (another snip)

    “Maybe NYC can get AOC to raise a citizen’s watch so Gracie Mansion doesn’t have to be put in the awkward position – politically speaking – of raising spending on law enforcement after the ‘defund the NYPD’ movement of 2020 led to meaningful budgetary cutbacks.”

    1. That’s creepy.

      I regularly talk to my self (LOUDLY) while grocery shopping now. I yell “look at these prices!” while putting items in my cart and yell “fifty dollars!” while paying at the self checkout.

      Small actions like this are *ALL* part of the Leaderless Resistance, we are raising awareness…

      1. Saw a young mother with 3 kids in Publix irate at the lack of cream cheese. She, quite loudly, spouted “We always had cream cheese with Trump?”

  17. Not watching the Social Justice Warriors play Football makes for extremely productive weekends.

    Besides regular weekend errands and a workout I also washed, clay barred, rewashed (necessary after you clay bar a vehicle) and waxed my truck to stunning results. Including the interior, tires and rims on my Silverado crew cab it is about a 7 hour project for me and would not be possible if I was watching 2 or 3 games worth of overpaid men wearing “end racism” on their socks.

    1. “waxed my truck”

      That sounds like some slick looking wheels.

      As a sparky, the truck vs. van debate is eternal. Running work in Denver you can always have the big stuff delivered, but at some point in the future I’m probably gonna need a larger vehicle.

      1. “…at some point in the future I’m probably gonna need a larger vehicle.”

        Many of the contractors I know have trailers that they tow to the job site, and then commute in a compact car.

        1. In my part of Region IV most landscapers tow trailers with their lawn equipment in it behind pickup trucks but I can’t think of any GC or sub who leaves a trailer on a job. I do know some GC s who have dump trailers.

      1. No wheelies but it’ll light em up pretty good. It’s an RST with the 5.3 which has 355 HP. It’s a different driving experience than my old 2004 4×4 F-2 fiddy which I still have to carry heavy loads.

  18. Son: “Daddy, how can one cause grocery store shelves to become emptied?”

    Mr. Banker: “Well son, all you need to do is to hint that there will be a shortage. Here is an example …”

    “Take Only What You Need:” DC Asks People To Limit Supermarket Purchases As Empty Shelves Persist | ZeroHedge

    Related to this is this Blast frum da Past:

    Remembering the great toilet paper shortage of 1973 – CBS News
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/remembering-the-great-toilet-paper-shortage-of-1973/

    You can say it ain’t so but sometimes saying it ain’t so will make it so.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/take-only-what-you-need-dc-asks-people-limit-supermarket-purchases-empty-shelves-persist

    1. I find wall-to-wall tat carpets — and the gappy clothing which shows it off — to be supremely unprofessional. Oh wait, that’s mostly white people.

    2. I’ll bet that when they go under the scalpel those woke profs expect the utmost in professionalism in their surgeon. They also expect their airliner pilots to be the epitome of professionalism, etc. Of course the worst their Victims Studies students could foul something up is getting your latte order wrong.

Comments are closed.

Back To Top