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For Properties That Were Purchased Two Months Ago, What Are They Worth Today?

A report from Toronto Storeys in Canada. “According to Toronto real estate agent Doug Vukasovic, when looking at both the condo and freehold markets on a weekly basis, Vukasovic says that in four out of the last five weeks, prices have come down. Vukasovic says prices in the freehold segment dropped by -7% last week, reaching an average of $1.18 million, which was driven ‘exclusively’ by detached homes, the segment that saw the biggest price change as it dropped -13% during this time. Similarly, the condo market also experienced price declines, with both condo apartments and townhomes down -5%, reaching an average of $633,000. To be more specific, condo apartments were down -8%, while townhomes were down -3%.”

“In regards to transactions, Vukasovic says sales were down -74% in the freehold segment, with just 98 sales as of May 3 compared to 391 in the same time last year. Sales were also down in the condo segment, with just 109 transactions as of May 3, down -76% from the same time in 2019, when there were 457 transactions.”

From Reuters on Canada. “Some Canadian banks have frozen new lending for smaller commercial property purchases, in some cases withdrawing letters of intent, as the coronavirus crisis raises concerns about owners’ ability to make payments, mortgage and real estate brokers said. The tighter lending environment will likely result in a rise in distressed sales of commercial properties in coming months as buyers vanish, industry players said.”

“With most businesses shut due to public health measures aimed at curbing the pandemic, major banks are also declining to refinance property for owners who are trying to move from more expensive alternative lenders as their rental income dries up.”

“‘If you’re a landlord, and looking to refinance, you can’t get that,’ said Roelof van Dijk, director of market analytics at CoStar Group. ‘So you’re probably going to have to sell. But they’re also limiting new owners who might want to buy that space.'”

“Concerns about valuations of properties are also giving lenders pause, as appraisals typically use sales from 45 to 60 days ago, said Anthony Contento, chief executive of Sherwood Mortgage Brokers. ‘For properties that were purchased two months ago … what are they worth today during this crisis?’ he said.”

The Galway Advertiser in Ireland. “‘The most recent Daft report has indicated that in Dublin and nationwide there has been a substantial increase in the number of residential properties available for rent, figures as high as 22 per cent have been referenced for one and two bed apartments,’ said Deirdre Greaney, letting manager with Winters Property Management, who has 15 years’ experience in the property market. ‘This increase of stock is being put down to properties which were let on a short term basis now coming in to the long term market.'”

The Property Investor Today. “The coronavirus pandemic has caused a considerable amount of uncertainty and worry since it took hold in Europe in early March, with Spain and the UK two of the worst-affected countries. There has been some concern over what happens to buyers of Spanish off-plan properties if they can’t meet the entire payments due to the impacts of the coronavirus crisis. How can buyers in this situation recover the amounts they have already invested?”

“‘The crisis caused by the coronavirus will radically change the financial situation of many of the buyers who have bought a home off-plan in recent months, since they will not be able to afford the rest of the price,’ says José Ramón Gutiérrez Giménez – a Spanish lawyer who specialises in recovering deposits of British buyers in Spanish off-plan properties. ‘In the event of non-payment, the developer has the option to terminate the purchase and sale contract due to the buyer’s default, then remaining with the amounts that have been agreed in each contract and returning the property to the market. Or they may compel the buyer to pay the rest of the price.'”

“Many buyers are wondering at the moment how to avoid this, Gutiérrez Giménez adds. ‘If it is possible to allege that their financial situation has changed radically due to a case of force majeure such as the crisis caused by the coronavirus, it may be possible to resolve the signed sale contract and ask that the seller return the money already paid.'”

“But what can buyers who are in this situation do to be able to recover the investment they have made? ‘Only in the event that there is a delay in delivery by the promoter do buyers have an opportunity to recover these amounts,’ Gutiérrez Giménez advises.”

The Australian Financial Review. “Funding for off-the-plan mortgages has been axed by Teachers Mutual Bank, as the number of apartments settling with a valuation lower than the original price tops 55 per cent in Sydney and nearly half in Melbourne. The mutual, one of the nation’s largest with 200,000 members and assets of more than $7 billion, blames the decision on the ‘high uncertainty of future valuations’ caused by falling demand and lower prices.”

“Off-the-plan purchases allow buyers to secure a property and pay a deposit for a unit, duplex, or townhouse before construction. They are popular during periods of rising prices because the buyer may get a significant discount below the market value if the property appreciates before settlement. But the impact of COVID-19 on property markets increases fears buyers might forgo their deposit and drop the loan because of concerns their property will be worth less at settlement than the purchase price.”

“Alternatively, contract holders who purchased an apartment several years ago and approaching settlement, may find their employment and income circumstances have changed, or their lenders are less willing to finance the purchase. ‘Buyers confronted with a low valuation at the time of settlement are likely to be less willing to settle, and may need to top up their deposit in order to meet their lender’s loan to valuation ratio requirements,’ said Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic.”

“There is a ‘high likelihood’ that demand for investment-grade inner city high-rise apartments will be lower because of a drop in overseas migration and less demand from local and overseas students, Mr Lawless said. Rental demand is also expected to be hit by rising unemployment and lower incomes, particularly among sectors hard hit by the pandemic, such as accommodation and food services.”

“‘Weaker rental conditions could also be affected by higher supply, as rental properties that were previously on short-term leases transition into the permanent rental market,’ he said. The pipeline of new units is falling but remains elevated across many major markets.”

From Mansion Global. “The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking economic havoc around the world—and the luxury real estate market is no exception. A report from Knight Frank analyzed prime prices in 20 cities across the globe based on projections for demand and supply, the impact of coronavirus in each different market and the varying government stimulus measures announced, but it noted that unprecedented uncertainty made the forecasts challenging.”

“‘There were positive signs in several markets globally that prime prices would rise throughout 2020, but unsurprisingly, Covid-19 has put a halt to that,’ Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, said in the report. ‘Of the 20 cities Knight Frank has analyzed, 16 of these will see prime price declines in 2020, with only a handful avoiding a fall into negative territory.'”

“The cities predicted to be hit by the largest price falls, defined as a drop of 5% or more, are Buenos Aires, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vancouver. With the exception of Singapore, the markets are either emerging or locales that were already seeing weak price growth at the end of 2019, according to Knight Frank.”

“‘In London’s case, the political certainty provided by last December’s general election boosted housing market confidence during January and February. With prices in some areas down as much as 25% over the last five years, we expect a sharp uptick in 2021,’ Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank, said in the report.”

This Post Has 67 Comments
  1. so much marketing hype – Equitable Group is only $CDN 1.1 B. There is no way that they can step up quickly. Although their corporate officer are being paid well

    Alternative lender Equitable Group has seen steady loan volumes versus an expected decline, driven by fewer new originations by the big banks, said Darren Lorimer, vice-president for commercial lending at the bank.

    Equitable anticipates the migration of borrowers spurned by the big banks will lead to “better quality opportunities than we would have seen in the past,” he said.

  2. Vancouver, WA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Vancouver, BC And Seattle Housing Markets Meltdown Under Weight Of Toxic Mortgages

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a noted economist stated so eloquently, “A house is a rapidly depreciating asset that empties your wallet it every day you own it.”

  3. RE: Toronto. At least they are starting to say that prices will drop.

    I did a bike ride yesterday through downtown Toronto and through most of Etobicoke (west end of toronto). There continue to be an amazing amount of houses being re-furbed / re-done. Folks are going to get hurt badly.

    DBRS Morningstar is looking at pandemic scenarios that include a housing price correction of between 10 and 15 per cent by 2022.

    The credit ratings agency’s scenarios anticipate some people with mortgages falling behind on payments, particularly in oil-producing provinces where the economic shock including fallout from efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 would be greater. However, house price declines are expected to be sharper in cities — such as Toronto — where there has been a “significant run-up in prices in recent years.”

    Even in a “moderate” scenario envisioned by DBRS, home prices in Canada’s largest city would fall by 14 per cent.

    1. Nobody cares what “they say” when you know every word they say is a lie.

    2. So many condos that are rented in Toronto that folks keep track.

      Starting to see listings go up – but blaming airbnb and not all the condo that were finally delivered to buyers.
      The GTA’s condo rental market has dramatically reversed directions in the course of a single month with a surge in listings since the pandemic hit, real estate watchers say.

      And they believe a big drop in Airbnb rentals may be playing a role in this trend.

      “We’re seeing renters pull out of the market,” said John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty Inc. And he says while prospective renters are getting scarce, there has been a spike in the numbers of units for rent.

      “Especially condominiums, which are high-priced rentals … over $2,000 a month for a one bedroom,” Pasalis told CBC Toronto.

      “So those people are kind of pulling back given the economic uncertainty and the impact on their incomes. And on the flip side, we’re seeing landlords — who need to pay the mortgages and property taxes — scramble to put their units on the market.”

      Pasalis says there’s been a 25 per cent increase in listings and he thinks that former Airbnb hosts are scrambling to lease out their units.

    3. Canada is 1/10th the USA economy – so equivalent of 20 M jobs lost.

      Yet there are a whole bunch of white collar happy as clams still working from home. A bunch of banks and insurance companies have promised not to lay folks off until the shutdown finishes. What happens then?

      The demand for housing has got to drop

      Canada lost almost two million jobs during the month of April, a record high, as the impact of COVID-19 on the economy made itself known.

      Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey data released Friday brings the total number of jobs lost during the crisis to more than three million.

      The closure of non-essential services to slow the spread of COVID-19 has devastated the economy and forced businesses to shutter temporarily.

      Statistics Canada says the unemployment rate soared to 13 per cent as the full force of the pandemic hit, compared with 7.8 per cent in March.

      Economists on average had expected the loss of four million jobs and an unemployment rate of 18 per cent, according to financial markets data firm Refinitiv.

      Since comparable data became available in 1976, the April unemployment rate was second-highest only to December 1982, when it reached 13.1 per cent.

  4. Are you missing out on the coronavirus recovery stock market rally?

    Market Snapshot
    Dow futures rise nearly 300 points as U.S.-China trade reps hold call; investors brace for jobs report
    Published: May 8, 2020 at 12:04 a.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre
    U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer appears with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Beijing on Feb. 15, 2019 MARK SCHIEFELBEIN/AFP/Getty Images

    U.S. stock-index futures were indicating a sharp gain to start Friday trade, after Reuters reported that U.S.-China trade representatives held a phone call to discuss reducing tensions between the global superpowers amid testiness around the COVID-19 pandemic.

    1. The Financial Times
      US-China trade dispute
      US and China say trade talks on track despite coronavirus tensions
      Two sides hold call on ‘phase one’ deal in rare easing of war of words over pandemic
      Donald Trump raised concerns about the trade deal
      © Bloomberg
      James Politi in Washington and Ryan McMorrow and Yuan Yang in Beijing yesterday

      Top US officials said their trade pact with China remained on track despite rising tensions, easing fears that the coronavirus pandemic had upended the two countries’ fragile economic truce.

      Washington’s reassuring remarks come after Donald Trump has continually lashed out at Beijing’s handling of the virus. The US president has also threatened to “terminate” the trade deal because of scepticism over China’s willingness to honour its pledge to buy billions of dollars of American goods.

      Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, held a conference call with Liu He, China’s vice-premier, on Thursday night to discuss the implementation of the “phase one” agreement.

      “Both sides agreed that good progress is being made on creating the governmental infrastructures necessary to make the agreement a success. They also agreed that in spite of the current global health emergency, both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner,” USTR and the Treasury said in a joint statement.

      1. Thee “Trade.War$.i$.Ea$y” mini.pha$e l … v.7.6 $tarted in Jan 2020 says the xaoh.👾.Chine$e.communist$ is goin’ purcha$e $200+ Billion$ bye December 31$t 2020. Thu$ far(May 8th, month #5 of 12) they have imported $20 Billion$, looks like $180 Billion$ worth of empty container$ is gonna have to filled to the $eams lickety.$plit like over the next x7 month$.

        I$ you a “True.Believer$” of that $cenario coming to fruition$?

    2. It seems like Mr Market is happy to look away from yesterday’s bad news on job losses towards tomorrow’s good news on reopening the world economy.

      1. $ynchronized Global $lowing is a $ digital di$tributional di$informational myth!

        Coming $oon!📰:

      2. Opening the economy will bring on a wave of new cases. The question is whether they will shut back down, or just accept the deaths.

        I’m still tracking what’s going on with HCQ. I think we’ll know more in a few weeks.

        1. The testing and reporting is badly flawed and there are ten layers of media, Gates Foundation, CDC, and WHO disinformation on top of that. You are not going to be able ascertain the truth from anything but direct experience. That’s why they want you locked in your house watching CNN.

          1. I’m still optimistic. How long can the US can deny HCQ when it seems to be working in a dozen other countries? Double-blind random-controlled studies are being conducted as we speak. If those come out favorable, the Trump-haters will have no excuse at all.

            FYI newest study just came out from Didier Raoult: They treated over 1000+ people with HCQ/AZ ~ 6 days after onset of symptoms. 90% cure rate (negative for virus) within 10 days after that. 8 deaths, all over age 75 and with hypertension/cancer.

          2. I’m still optimistic.

            Me too.

            The monied interests probably aren’t too thrilled.


      Any state delegated health care worker in NY will be able to declare you a risk to community health and have you forcibly quarantined and removed from your residence?

      Any New Yorkers out there can comment?

      “I want to be a part of it, New York, New York”….what would Frank say now?

      Certainly won’t do much for the housing market if at anytime of the day or night the governor can declare a health emergency and start dragging people out of their homes against their will. Any New Yorkers packing up and leaving?

    1. But have no.a.fearin’! of thee.xaoh👾, on accounts thee “truth” i$:

      📣🎙”it’s just the common.cold folks!”

      1. Nobody could have seen it coming!

        Health & Fitness
        Coronavirus News: Governor Cuomo says coronavirus ‘not our first rodeo,’ expects more cases in NYC
        By Eyewitness News
        Sunday, March 1, 2020
        Mike Marza reports on the confirmed coronavirus case in New York City.

        NEW YORK (WABC) — The first case of coronavirus has been reported in New York City. Both Mayor Bill de Blasio and Governor Andrew Cuomo said that the risk to New Yorkers remains low.

        They held a press conference together Monday morning to provide an update.

      1. Forward wool markets traded in a wide range in another difficult week for spot auctions, with prices coming off 50 to 80 cents across all categories.

        Albemarle eyes Tianqi’s stake in world’s largest lithium mine

        ‘The lithium giant showed further signs of distress on Wednesday, cutting its 2020 budget and pulling its annual forecast amid the global spread of the coronavirus. It was the first concrete signs that the lithium industry is beginning to feel the pain of falling EVs sales, which are projected to slide further for the rest of the year due in part to shutdowns affecting carmakers. Before the pandemic, the main factor behind the price slump was an avalanche of new supply. The glut was triggered mainly by mine expansions and a cut in government subsidies for purchasers of EVs in China, the world’s largest market.’

        So many gluts!

      2. Should help keep the airlines aloft during a period of low air travel demand.

        1. Airlines make less money when fuel drops. It’s harder to slip in profits. The whole sector is sinking. Too many expensive planes, bought with too much debt.

          1. Fair enough. The reason for the abysmally low jet fuel prices is that nobody needs much of the stuff when air travel demand is only a fraction of what it was just a few months ago.

          2. Maybee they can offer a di$counted ticket$ iffin’ you allow someone to sit on yer lap for 5 hour$.

            They care$ about their cu$tomers,

  5. ‘Today, May 7th, Governor Cuomo announced that New Yorkers can now pay for their rent using their security deposit: “We are also allowing renters facing COVID-related hardship to use their security deposit as payment and repay the deposit over time,” he said. In addition, he announced today that the moratorium on evictions has been extended until August 20, 2020.’

    Sure Andy, step right in and make yourself party to millions of contracts you have nothing to do with. You do realize a security deposit has a function and if it ain’t there, something has to give?

    Hello lawsuits.

    1. Hey, I got an idea. Let FB’s use down payments as payments. Or use equity as payments. Since we’re making it up as we go along, why not?

      1. With Unlimited Quarantinive Easing, there should be enough available to keep all payment streams flowing.

        1. Kudlow says his “back.of.thee.envelope” calculation$ put the “on.going” Ferderal.Re$cue.Re$erve @ x9+Trillion$ 📰💰💸💲🗑

          Go $tephen Munchin! Print More$!, More$!, More$! & even More$!
          Don’t.$top! Don’t … $top! … Don’t!
          🌊🙏💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵💰💲💵 …

          “Feel.thee.burn$!” 🔥💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸 of qua$i.Capitali$m.$ocialism.di$tribution$ …☕

      2. Let FB’s use down payments as payments. Or, let FB’s use used TP as down payments!

    2. The flip side of this is: how many landlords actually have their tenants’ “security deposits” in escrow? I’m pretty sure a lot of the small-timers spent those deposits already. This may hasten the demise of some real on-the-edge landlords.

  6. The Fed keeps saying that negative rates are not a place they want to go. How come Mr Market won’t believe them?

    1. Market Extra
      Some traders bet the Fed will push interest rates negative next year
      Published: May 8, 2020 at 8:11 a.m. ET
      By Sunny Oh
      Fed fund futures show expectations for rates to turn negative next year
      Getty Images

      Despite pushback from the Federal Reserve, some traders appear to be pricing in expectations that policy makers will push rates below zero.

      Based on trading in fed fund futures, market participants see rates turning negative next year amid worries that the Fed has all but expended its tools to cushion growth and keep financial markets functioning as the COVID-19 pandemic wreaks havoc on the economy.

      “Until they can credibly prove they won’t go down that road, negative rates will continue to be a topic of discussion,” said Jon Hill, interest-rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in an interview.

    2. “How come Mr Market won’t believe them”

      Maybee$ Mr.&Ms.Market$ i$ $uffering from a $pecial type of over.indulgence$ $yndrome.

      “a hollow leg”

      in British English:

      “the capacity to eat$ or drink$ a lot without ill effect$”

  7. ‘Downtown Palm Springs should be bustling, but if it weren’t for a statue in the middle of the sidewalk on South Palm Canyon Drive the area would be nearly empty. ‘

    “Born and raised here lived here all my life and over the 60 years that I’ve been here I’ve never seen it like this,” says Sue Hoffman Lyle, a partner and property manager of Oasis Plaza adding adding that it’s heartbreaking to see her tenants struggling, “we’re very sad to see what has happened to the downtown area and the closure of our retail tenants and they are suffering terribly.”

    ‘But on Thursday Governor Gavin Newsom issued guidelines to enter “Stage Two” that allows shops and non essential manufacturing to reopen on Friday with COVD-19 modifications like curbside pickup, delivery and social distancing. ‘

    “All with an eye on turning the page and moving into a new phase in terms of economic recovery,” says Newsom.’

    ‘One of Sue’s tenants Alex Gonzales of El Patron restaurant says he just opened back up for pick up and delivery orders. He’s had to cut 29 employees. “It’s been tough,” says Alex.’

    ‘According to the governor, dine in for restaurants and full retail may be weeks away.’

    ‘Alex says dine in customers are their bread and butter, “It’s huge, I mean it probably knocks down 85, 90 percent of our business hopefully, you know reopening and trying to gain some orders and we’ll see how it works out.”

    ‘Sue says that economic recovery the governor spoke about won’t be possible for many of her tenants even though they’ve slashed rents by 50 percent, this modified opening won’t generate enough sales, “Very little, probably 25 percent of what they normally make.”

    ‘When asked if businesses are going to survive this Sue answers, “We’re going to probably see some closures.”

    Go ahead guvnah, destroy your economy for no reason.

    Wait. It’s isn’t “your” economy, is it?

    1. “Wait. It’s isn’t “your” economy, is it?”

      Maine Governor Janet Mills’ administration revokes Sunday River Brewing Co. license; owner closes restaurant

      Health & liquor inspectors revoked Sunday River Brewing licenses Friday. Owner Rick Savage initially defied Gov Janet Mills coronavirus order, but closed late Friday

      Author: Gabrielle Mannino (NEWS CENTER Maine), Hannah Dineen (NEWS CENTER Maine)
      Published: 6:53 PM EDT May 1, 2020

      BETHEL, Maine — Rick Savage, the owner of Sunday River Brewing Co. in Bethel, kept his word and opened his doors to the public on Friday, defying Gov. Janet Mills’ Executive Order during the coronavirus, COVID-19 pandemic.

      According to Savage, health and liquor license inspectors were on scene Friday and revoked both of the restaurant’s licenses.

    2. Who’s taking bets that almost everything will open fully (but with some silly nanny rules) just before Memorial Day? It’ll take some weeks for concerts and sports to start rolling but they may get the green light to be ready in time for July 4.

      Can you imagine no baseball, hot dogs, apple pie or fireworks on July 4? I can’t, either.

    3. Go ahead guvnah, destroy your economy for no reason.

      The sad thing is that when the time comes, he’ll get re-elected in a landslide.

    4. “Born and raised here lived here all my life and over the 60 years that I’ve been here I’ve never seen it like this,” says Sue Hoffman Lyle, a partner and property manager of Oasis Plaza adding adding that it’s heartbreaking to see her tenants struggling, “we’re very sad to see what has happened to the downtown area and the closure of our retail tenants and they are suffering terribly.”

      She needs to do a take-out foodie date with Jeremiah Babe who hangs his hat out there in Palm Desert, CA. Sounds like a movie set in a zombie apocalypse.

  8. An economy that took 200 years to build is now destroyed.

    Happy now comrades?

    1. Yer.lover.boy Trumpy is sitting on his golden.toilet 💲🚽& feeling … $ad.

  9. How does this work? I thought it might be useful to learn how foreclosures/auctions work. Best to study now when it’s early and there isn’t a property interesting (to me). I came across an auction announcement for early to mid summer and recognized the house as a perpetual offering on my local MLS. This would be one I thought I could follow and see how it turned out. I am already confused. Research shows a permanently closed mortgage company (before the pandemic, I believe). The sole owner of mortgage company also owns this house, it’s his personal home. I have seen this house over the course of 3 years or more offered between 2+ million down into the upper 900’s and back to 1.2 million last fall. The info available so far shows:
    Year built:

    Foreclosure information
    2/14/2020 Foreclosure auction $1,211,636 unpaid balance
    1/30/2020 Home in default
    5/30/2006 Loan issued $1,200,000

    Will the mortgage company get first shot and he buys his own house back at 100?

    I hope they aren’t all like this.

        1. 2/14/2020 Foreclosure auction $1,211,636 unpaid balance
          1/30/2020 Home in default
          5/30/2006 Loan issued $1,200,000

          I’d guess the 2/14 auction got postponed because it’s scheduled again:

          In-Person Auction
          Thursday, Jul 02, 2020
          Auction Start Time 11:00 am
          Location Flathead County Justice Center – East Door
          920 S. Main St., Kalispell, MT 59901

          It’s likely a pre-foreclosure. Otherwise (REO) they wouldn’t have it at the courthouse but online. They don’t have an estimated opening bid yet. When they do it will mean they are getting serious about dumping the shack.

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