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I’m Up Shit Creek, I Never Thought They’d Give Me As Much Money As They Did

A report from Reuters. “In mid-April Harsh Grewal and his wife settled on a place in a San Francisco suburb and were prepping a bid, above the listed price so they’d have a chance of besting other offers. Then he checked his phone and saw several alerts, all touting reduced prices for other homes they’d been tracking. The Grewals pulled their offer and put their search on ice in hopes it was a sign the market was finally cooling. ‘I want to see where this goes, and where the dust settles,’ Grewal said.”

“That’s exactly what Federal Reserve policymakers hope to see more of as they raise interest rates to bring down 40-year high inflation.”

The Marina Times. “Taylor Marr, Redfin’s deputy chief economist, is seeing early indications that the housing market might be cooling down in some pricey coastal areas — including San Francisco. Tours of for-sale homes in California have dropped 21 percent as of March 31 from the first week of 2022. The number of homebuyers in San Francisco who applied for a mortgage dropped 13 percent year-over-year in February.”

“And finally, Marr adds, ‘For this time of year, the share of homes with price drops has been growing at its fastest pace in at least seven years. While price drops are still a rarity, the fact that they are quickly becoming more common tells us that sellers are reaching a limit on their ultimate control over the market as buyers reach a limit on how much they are willing to pay for a home.'”

The Commercial Observer. “Partner Insights spoke to Michael A. Hanin and Uri A. Itkin, leaders of the structured finance litigation practice at the law firm Kasowitz Benson Torres, about the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market, and the ramifications arising from the quarter of a trillion dollars’ worth of commercial loans set to mature in 2022. Hanin: There’s been an unfortunate history of special servicers delaying tough decisions with respect to CMBS loans held in trust — what’s often referred to as an ‘extend and pretend’ mentality. That mentality can avoid losses to the most junior certificate holders in the short term but can, and has, resulted in far more significant losses to CMBS investors on the whole over the long term.”

“CO: What do you expect to happen if and when delinquencies and loans in special servicing rise? Will special servicers take enforcement actions? Itkin: Generally, over the past several years, there’s been a trend of special servicers trying to preserve the status quo and keeping the loans in place, rather than pursuing more aggressive options like foreclosure. My sense is that will continue to be the case in the short to medium term. Of course, this calculus might change in light of macroeconomic factors, such as if the Fed continues to raise interest rates.”

From Bloomberg. “The global shift away from easy money is poised to accelerate as a pandemic bond-buying blitz by central banks swings into reverse, threatening another shock to the world’s economies and financial markets. Bloomberg Economics estimates that policy makers in the Group of Seven countries will shrink their balance sheets by about $410 billion in the remainder of 2022. It’s a stark turnaround from last year, when they added $2.8 trillion — taking the total expansion to more than $8 trillion since Covid-19 arrived.”

“That wave of monetary support helped prop up economies and asset prices through a pandemic slump. Central banks are pulling it back — belatedly, in the view of some critics — as inflation soars to multi-decade highs. Their new policy, known as quantitative tightening — the opposite of the quantitative easing that central banks turned to during the pandemic and the Great Recession — will likely send borrowing costs higher and dry up liquidity.”

“Already, rising bond yields, falling share prices and the stronger U.S. dollar are tightening financial conditions — even before the Fed’s push to raise interest rates gets into full swing. ‘This is a major financial shock for the world,’ said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis SA, who previously worked for the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. ‘You are already seeing the consequences of tapering in reduced dollar liquidity and dollar appreciation.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “As high as Toronto and Vancouver rents may seem to local tenants, landlords are often losing money on them. In recent years, many mom-and-pop real estate investors in the two cities have been quietly paying more in mortgage and other ownership costs than they receive in rent, trusting they’d eventually sell at a profit thanks to rapidly rising home values, experts say. But as interest rates shoot up and price growth slows, some highly indebted landlords are beginning to feel the squeeze more acutely. ‘It’s all about leverage,’ said Ron Butler, a Toronto-based mortgage broker.”

“His firm, Butler Mortgage, is getting daily calls these days from real estate investors in Ontario who’ve used a home equity line of credit (HELOC) for all or some of the down payment on a second property. ‘If you bought a rental property seven years ago, which was enormously cheaper – you might even have had positive cash flow – you’ve had time to pay down the HELOC,’ Mr. Butler said. But if you’re an investor who bought in the past 18 months at a much higher price using a HELOC for the down payment and with rent not fully covering your monthly costs, ‘you now have an issue,’ Mr. Butler said.”

“It’s not uncommon for homeowners who’ve seen the value of their first home soar in recent years to borrow against their home equity with a HELOC to fund the down payment on an investment property, Mr. Butler said, speaking about the Ontario market. Borrowers often don’t disclose to their bank they intend to use the HELOC to acquire a second home, he added. Once they’ve drawn the cash for a down payment from the HELOC, borrowers typically apply for a mortgage to finance the rest of the real estate purchase, Mr. Butler said.”

“With HELOC rates climbing, many of those highly leveraged investors are now scrambling to convert their line of credit balance into mortgage debt that comes with fixed payments, according to Mr. Butler. The risk is that some may not be able to do so. In a March 2021 report, CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal and Shaun Hildebrand, president of Toronto-based condo research firm Urbanation, found that 37 per cent of GTA condo rental units registered in 2020 had negative cash flow, with the carrying costs of home ownership outstripping rent by an average of $492 a month for that group.”

From ABC News in Australia. “Tara Higginson pulls no punches when asked what will happen if interest rates rise on Tuesday, off the back of soaring inflation. ‘I’m up shit creek’, says the single mother of four who, in the midst of the pandemic, took out an interest-only variable loan of $510,000 – more than six times her income. ‘I don’t have a second income to be able to buffer that fluctuation when it [interest rates] increase,’ she says.”

“To build her dream home in Logan Reserve, in the outer suburbs of Brisbane, Ms Higginson took out a big home loan and the rest was funded by the $25,000 HomeBuilder grant and first home buyer grants of about $15,000. She also pulled $20,000 out of her superannuation. She currently pays a variable interest rate of 2.98 per cent, interest-only, and says if rates rise even slightly, she will have to cut back on her youngest daughter’s education and take out a second job. ‘I hope it never comes to it. But if it [rates] start to increase, which we know it will, I need to find a second source of income. It’s something I’m really scared to actually think about,’ Ms Higginson says.”

“She says if she can’t bring in extra income, she could be forced to sell. ‘I’m 100 per cent at risk of having to sell the property,’ she says. ‘That would like, kill me, to say goodbye to it. I know, a lot of our neighbours are currently looking at refinancing and using the equity because the price of their house and the valuations have gone up so much that they can now look at fixing interest rates and things like that, just to give them a bit more security.'”

“‘And I honestly don’t think I could do that. I don’t think I could approach a lender and say, ‘Hey, can I try and fix my loan for five years at the current low rates? Because of the changes [tighter lending standards] that have happened, I wouldn’t get approved again.'”

“Dr Sy was the principal researcher at APRA between 2004 and 2010, and a big part of his role was assessing housing credit risk. Or in other words, whether people who cannot afford to are taking on too much housing debt. ‘APRA doesn’t look at individual consumers,’ Dr Sy notes, having called it a ‘fake regulator’ in a 2019 paper that was submitted as part of a review into the organisation. ‘If some of the investors or consumers get in trouble, because they didn’t really understand some contracts that they struck with a bank or financial institution, then it’s caveat emptor (a Latin term that means ‘let the buyer beware’),’ he says.”

“Ms Higginson says she was surprised she even got the home loan in the first place. ‘I never thought they’d give me as much money as they did,’ she says. ‘I have been able to build my dream house with what they’ve lent me. But at the same time, the whole time was pinching myself thinking, ‘how the hell is this happening?’ Like, how have I been approved for over half a million dollars on a single income with less than 20 per cent deposit?'”

“Ms Higginson’s advice to others who want to get into the housing market is to plan for the worst-case scenario. ‘I have borrowed [to] my max capacity,’ she says. ‘And at the time, it was literally a whirlwind. I got the pre-approval, found the land three days later, found the builder a week after I signed the land contract — it just all happened so quick.​​​​​ I didn’t stop to think, how’s this going to affect me… whether I can [make] the repayments. I was just so swept up in being approved, that I was like, ‘this is a dream come true. Just roll with it and keep going and think about the consequences later’. Now I’m in here, I have to look at how things are going to change and what the future holds.'”

“‘I know, owning a house is the Australian dream. It’s what everyone wants. It’s your own slice of paradise, that’s yours. But make sure that the banks can’t take it away. Make sure that you are secure and you are looked after.'”

From Stuff New Zealand. “New Zealand gained 27,875 new homes last year – the largest increase in property stock since 2017 when house price stagnated, property data firm Valocity figures show. While supply was going up, demand stagnated. When Auckland University professor of economics Robert MacCulloch reads the figures, he is reminded of a guest lecture given by Harvard economist Edward Glaeser in 2013.”

MacCulloch says Glaeser, who is regarded as the father of urban economics and an authority on housing bubbles, spoke about how housing shortages could trigger a price boom, and that even when supply caught up, price momentum could carry on. ‘Even when you release supply you still get this momentum, the bubble can keep churning on for a year or two,’ MacCulloch says.”

“”It’s the ‘fuel in the fire’ effect, so making the money so much cheaper as a response to Covid creates excess demand for properties, trumping the amount of new stock being created,’ Wilson says. ‘When the cost of borrowing goes past a certain point people pay less attention to the price they’re paying and more on just getting a house. It seems a little ludicrous to say that, but we have seen the market act that way.'”

“Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen says a bubble is only known as a bubble when it pops, and the market has not popped yet. ‘It’s something that is slowly deflating, after being pumped larger over the last decade and some extreme acceleration in growth over the pandemic period,’ he says. ‘Given all the factors we are currently seeing, I don’t think – yet – that we can call the housing market in a bubble, simply because I don’t think at the moment it’ll pop. It’s more like a tyre with a slow leak at the moment – it hasn’t collapsed, but it’s leaking out slowly – but still looks like a tyre.'”

“There has been concerns of a slowdown in developments after two townhouse sites recently appeared in mortgagee sales and Auckland property developer David Whitburn saying there has been a general pullout of Chinese finance from the property market. ‘We are now hearing about developments not being completed, or developers changing halfway,’ Wilson says. ‘They are probably ‘late to the cycle’ developers, or new developers without experience or scale to ride through short to medium-term disruptions.’ Wilson says developers whose business model rely on rising prices to make development profitable may be in trouble.”

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This Post Has 116 Comments

  1. ‘will shrink their balance sheets by about $410 billion in the remainder of 2022. It’s a stark turnaround from last year, when they added $2.8 trillion — taking the total expansion to more than $8 trillion’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘she was surprised she even got the home loan in the first place. ‘I never thought they’d give me as much money as they did,’ she says. ‘I have been able to build my dream house with what they’ve lent me. But at the same time, the whole time was pinching myself thinking, ‘how the hell is this happening?’ Like, how have I been approved for over half a million dollars on a single income with less than 20 per cent deposit’

    I guess yer just lucky Tara. To be honest, they didn’t give it to you, you have to pay it back with interest. Roll with it baby!

    1. “APRA data shows that of 1 million new home loans written over the past two years, about 280,000 Australians have borrowed six or more times their income and/or have loan-to-value ratios of more than 90 per cent.”

      Good thing the bankers have their country’s back, or is it the other way around?

      1. “We need to actually lift people’s incomes.”

        Or let asset values revert to affordability.

        1. No kidding! We are staring at one of the best opportunities in decades for the U.S. to achieve its long-sought though highly-elusive affordable housing objective. But doing so depends on the independent, unelected Federal Open Market Committee members’ willingness to stand by and stand back while housing prices revert to their fundamental equilibrium values.

        2. “We need to actually lift people’s incomes.”

          Amazing are the efforts that the pigmen go to in order to create such a distorted economy where asset prices have zero to do with economic fundamentals. How about we fire these central banker focks and put some people in there who don’t destroy everything they touch?

  3. ‘if you’re an investor who bought in the past 18 months at a much higher price using a HELOC for the down payment and with rent not fully covering your monthly costs, ‘you now have an issue’

    A new description of a$$ pounding.

    1. Ron Butler, the mortgage broker mentioned in the article, is a great follow on Twitter. I highly recommend him.

    2. ‘you now have an issue’

      There’s no issue, as you can always just wait another year and sell for 20%+ over last year’s price.

      Or so I’ve heard.

  4. says the single mother of four who, in the midst of the pandemic, took out an interest-only variable loan of $510,000 – more than six times her income. ‘I don’t have a second income to be able to buffer that fluctuation when it [interest rates] increase,’ she says.”

    “To build her dream home in Logan Reserve, in the outer suburbs of Brisbane, Ms Higginson took out a big home loan and the rest was funded by the $25,000 HomeBuilder grant and first home buyer grants of about $15,000. She also pulled $20,000 out of her superannuation. She currently pays a variable interest rate of 2.98 per cent, interest-only, and says if rates rise even slightly, she will have to cut back on her youngest daughter’s education and take out a second job. ‘I hope it never comes to it. But if it [rates] start to increase, which we know it will, I need to find a second source of income. It’s something I’m really scared to actually think about,’ Ms Higginson says.”

    A dingo stole your Mortgage!

    1. Not a clue regarding an economic factor of safety, such as the father of her children. What came first, the purple hair or dad’s exit?

      3. What came first, the purple hair or dad’s exit?

        Rainbow hair and a body full of tats on people scream mental illness.

    2. Key phrase:

      “variable interest rate of 2.98 per cent, INTEREST ONLY”

      Even if rates don’t go up, she’s gonna get screwed when she has to start paying principle back. Welcome to USA 2005.

      1. They’re just blatantly ripping people off and guaranteeing default, but it’s all just can-kicking. These banker scvm have every trick in the book up their sleeves for every environment. These people should have to qualify on the full payment, not the teaser.

      2. Interest only. Isn’t that like, eh, renting? Oh yeah, you still owe the big nut.

        But you can call it yours.

      3. Tara:

        “…Just roll with it and keep going and think about the consequences later”

  5. ‘Ms Higginson’s advice to others who want to get into the housing market is to plan for the worst-case scenario. ‘I have borrowed [to] my max capacity’

    I always knew that was a sh$t creek somewhere, but apparently it’s in Brisbane.

  7. Funny how smart you were using leverage in a market rising faster than inflation. I wonder what happens when inflation is high and prices are negative.

    found that 37 per cent of GTA condo rental units registered in 2020 had negative cash flow, with the carrying costs of home ownership outstripping rent by an average of $492 a month for that group.

    2. I remember the last bubble new 2 bed room condos in Long Island City Queens you could buy from the sponsor with 5% down, and it was like $3300 a month all in on their calculation, but you could rent them from the sponsor for $2200 a month. and it was on their website, so no excuses.

  8. Today is Monday, May 2nd and Joe Biden is not the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

  9. Is the housing industry ready for another 25 basis points hike this week?

    You heard it will be 25 not 50 or 75…..

    Casino can’t take any hike.

        1. I don’t think the FED gives two focks about the stock market right now, they are looking at inflation. The PMI reports came out today showing raging and accelerating inflation in manufacturing. The FED wants to extinguish this sooner rather than later. I think a 75 basis point hike is more likely than 25.

          1. “I don’t think the FED gives two focks about the stock market right now, they are looking at inflation. ”

            If they really cared, they would have done a 100 basis points 3 months ago without a meeting. No they don’t care about inflation…Fed after Green$pan have never been serious about inflation…Powell still believes the current bout of inflation is mostly due to ‘supply chain’ issues. “Asset Inflation” is the economy….we have nothing else leff…they gutted everything.

          2. Powell still believes the current bout of inflation is mostly due to ‘supply chain’ issues.

            No he doesn’t, that’s the lie he floated. He knows damn well what’s going on.

          3. “He knows damn well what’s going on.”

            I hope you are right. I wish nothing more than some common sense to prevail, but I think the casino can’t take it and Fe’s is just too weak.

          4. raging and accelerating inflation in manufacturing.

            Do you mean we’re suddenly manufacturing much more stuff?

            Seriously, if the Fed is so afraid of inflation, why did they create it in the first place? Or do you think inflation is simply a freakish accident?

          5. Do you mean we’re suddenly manufacturing much more stuff?

            You like playing little word games, I’ve noticed.

          6. word games

            It’s important to understand what words mean, like the word inflation, if you want a solution.

          7. “It’s important to understand what words mean, like the word inflation, if you want a solution.”

            Nobody here is going to agree on that here. There is no common ground.

          8. It’s important to understand what words mean, like the word inflation, if you want a solution.

            You are an antagonist. Go get some sun and a breath of fresh air for a change. I’ve seen your work around here and it suggests bitterness.

          10. bitterness

            Sorry for the late reply, I was out getting some sun and fresh air.

            Oh there is no question that I have some angst against the Fed. I consider them a gang of thieves. Not angst toward yourself in the least. It is in my best interest for like minded people to understand the nature of the Fed, especially that they are not there to help us.

            If you consider my snipes too abrasive, I hope you can get over it.

    2. I hear ya, Butters. And in general, I am on the same page with you. However, methinks this time is uniquely different. Believe that we will see at least 50 basis point hike this week, and the same in June (notice i said “at least”). Let’s meet back later and compare notes.
      Thx, –Geezer

      1. The neutral Fed Funds Rate is somewhere close to 6% at the current rate of inflation. There is a LONG way to go. It’s the speculators who are getting burned by the rate hikes who are in denial about what the FED is going to do.

  12. – Evergreen article: Does anyone still remember the buy vs. rent tradeoff? That’s now apparently so 20th century… We have FOMO and TINA instead.
    – P.S. Some of this info. is dated info. due to interest rates, etc., and may apply to more to Housing Bubble (HB) 1.0, but the same principles still apply in general to HB 2.0. A good read in any case.
    – With house prices still in the stratosphere and mortgage rates rising fast, what comes next? The correct answer, as always, is to do the math. Maths are hard!

    https://patrick.net/post/1282720/2015-07-11-ten-reasons-it-s-a-terrible-time-to-buy-an-expensive-house
    Ten Reasons It’s A Terrible Time To Buy An Expensive House
    By Patrick | 2015 Jul 11, 12:58pm | 874,644 views

    1. Because house prices in expensive areas still dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer’s annual income with a 20% downpayment. Landlords say a safe price is set by the rental market; annual rent should be at least 9% of the purchase price, or else the price is just too high.

    2. Because it’s usually still much cheaper to rent than to own the same size and quality house, in the same school district. In rich neighborhoods, annual rents are typically only 3% of purchase price while mortgage rates are 4% with fees, so it costs more to borrow the money as it does to borrow the house. Renters win and owners lose! Worse, total owner costs including taxes, maintenance, and insurance come to about 8% of purchase price, which is more than twice the cost of renting and wipes out any income tax benefit.

    3. annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buy, prices are too high
    annual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderline
    annual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buy, prices are reasonable

    3. Because it’s a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now. House prices rose as interest rates fell, and house prices will fall if interest rates rise without a strong increase in jobs, because a fixed monthly payment covers a smaller mortgage at a higher interest rate. Since interest rates have nowhere to go but up, prices have nowhere to go but down. When housing falls, you lose your equity, but not your debt.

    It is far better to pay a low price with a high interest rate than a high price with a low interest rate, even if the mortgage payment is the same either way.

    – A low price lets you pay it all off instead of being a debt-slave for the rest of your life.
    – As interest rates fall, real estate prices generally rise.
    – Your property taxes will be lower with a low purchase price.

    4. Because buyers already borrowed too much money and cannot pay it back. They spent it on houses that are now worth less than the loans. This means most banks are still actually bankrupt. But since the banks have friends in Washington, they get special treatment that you do not. The Federal Reserve prints up bales of new money to buy worthless mortgages from irresponsible banks, slowing down the buyer-friendly deflation in housing prices and socializing bank losses.

    5. Because buyers used too much leverage. Leverage means using debt to amplify gain. Most people forget that debt amplifies losses as well. If a buyer puts 10% down and the house goes down 10%, he has lost 100% of his money on paper. If he has to sell due to job loss or a mortgage rate adjustment, he lost 100% in the real world.

    6. Because the housing bubble was not driven by supply and demand. There is huge supply because of overbuilding, and there is less demand now that the baby boomers are retiring and selling. Prices in the housing market, even now, are entirely a function of how much the banks are willing and able to lend. Most people will borrow as much as they possibly can, amounts that are completely disconnected from their salaries or from the rental value of the property. Banks have been willing to accomodate crazy borrowers because banker control of the US government means that banks do not yet have to acknowledge their losses, or can push losses onto taxpayers through government housing agencies like the FHA.

    7. Because there is still a massive backlog of latent foreclosures. Millions of owners stopped paying their mortgages, and the banks are still not forclosing on all of them, letting the owner live in the house for free.

    8. Because first-time buyers have all been ruthlessly exploited and the supply of new victims is very low.

    House price inflation has been very unfair to new families, especially those with children. It is foolish for them to buy at current high prices, yet government leaders never talk about how lower house prices are good for American families, instead preferring to sacrifice the young and poor to benefit the old and rich, and to make sure bankers have plenty of debt to earn interest on. Your debt is their wealth. Every “affordability” program drives prices higher by pushing buyers deeper into debt. Increased debt is not affordability, it’s just pushing the reckoning into the future.

    The government pretends to be interested in affordable housing, but now that housing is becoming truly affordable via falling prices, they want to stop it? Their actions speak louder than their words.

    9. Because boomers are retiring. There are 70 million Americans born between 1945-1960. One-third have zero retirement savings. The oldest are 66. The only money they have is equity in a house, so they must sell. This will add yet another flood of houses to the market, driving prices down even more.

    10. Because there is a huge glut of empty new houses. Builders are being forced to drop prices even faster than owners, because builders must sell to keep their business going. They need the money now.

    https://twitter.com/profplum99/status/1521105872524509184?cxt=HHwWgICs2evuhpwqAAAA
    Michael @profplum99
    Torsten Slok with a nice graphic this morning. The marginal buyer 35% “poorer” than 2020.
    6:34 AM · May 2, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

    https://twitter.com/lenkiefer/status/1516769000448872452?cxt=HHwWiMCi4dTX0owqAAAA
    📈 Len Kiefer 📊 @lenkiefer
    result of double digit percent changes in house prices and nearly two percentage point increases in mortgage rate average monthly payment is up 42% from a year ago
    7:21 AM · Apr 20, 2022·Twitter Web App

    https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1520806167953514496?cxt=HHwWgIC90d7J_poqAAAA
    Alf @MacroAlf
    The US mortgage payment to rent ratio has reached the highest level in 10 years
    Due to the sharp increase in house prices coupled with mortgage rates going to the moon, consumers are now looking at a median mortgage payment of $1,750 vs $1,300 median asking rent
    A short thread
    10:43 AM · May 1, 2022·Twitter Web App

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html
    Bloomberg [via Yahoo! Finance]
    Investor Who Called Housing Top and Bottom Says It’s Time to Sell
    John Gittelsohn
    Thu, April 28, 2022, 10:03 AM | 3 min read

    (Bloomberg) — Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

    Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

    Sky-high values, soaring interest rates and other costs of homeownership — maintenance, property taxes and utilities — dampen prospects for future appreciation, according to Kiesel, chief investment officer for global credit at Pacific Investment Management Co [PIMCO]. He’s weighing putting his Orange County house on the market and becoming a renter rather than an owner.

    “I can look at my long-term 25-year charts and they tell me when to buy and sell and they’re flashing orange right now,” Kiesel, 52, said during an interview at Pimco’s Newport Beach, California, headquarters. “I think we’re in the final innings.”

    “It’s only a good investment if you buy it the right time,” he said. “If I were to buy a house today, I would probably get max 2% return on it. And I can find other things I can make money on other than a house.”

    – A 2% annual nominal return on housing going forward in an 8.5% inflationary environment. What’s the real return? And what if house prices actually fall? BTW, I’m seeing that now. Oh dear!

    1. “Does anyone still remember the buy vs. rent tradeoff?”

      No but I remember Donk Craterton relying on the ‘new york times rent-buy calculator’ that happened to be riddled with some very bad math.🤣

      Santa Rosa, CA Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Sonoma County Staggers On Soaring Crime And Mortgage Fraud

      https://www.movoto.com/ca/95404/market-trends/

      1. some very bad math

        Is math that shows you will get rich beyond imagination “bad”? Not according to everyone.

        2. $6.50 a lb ……yet 80% hamburger is $2.99 last week i got real angus beef for $3.99 …Even chobani yogurt is $6.50 for a 2lb tub, ……….id rather just buy hot peppers and put them in eggs and cheese…like this morning

          1. I buy a lot of beef and pork…. mainly because I eat it by the truckload and dry age beef at home(as good as any dry age beef that Mortons or Peter Luger serves). Whatever…. but this I can confirm…. beef and pork isn’t any higher today than at any time in the last 5 years.

          2. Apparently you must live in the only place in the US that has not experienced the massive inflation seen elsewhere.

    2. My wife and I had the rent vs buy discussion last night. No one talks like that anymore, it’s just “buy something you can afford” but that metric is sooo subjective.

        1. It sounds like you are ready for a rental. There will be some good deals coming down the pike.

    3. result of double digit percent changes in house prices and nearly two percentage point increases in mortgage rate average monthly payment is up 42% from a year ago

      Nice chart! Wish the Y-axis went higher.

    4. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. There will be areas where housing drops to lows you never thought were possible. They might not all be wonderful areas but if you do the research you will find some that are very nice places to live. Save up cash and be ready to lowball like a boss in 4-5 years. There will be so many wipeouts that it will reach a point where properties are just sitting. Life changing deals are coming, will you be ready?

      1. They might not all be wonderful areas

        Might they be areas where the Dems warehouse the Nuevos Americanos?

        1. Only if you choose to live near those liberal sh!tholes. Plenty of places in this country where you don’t ever even see those vibrants.

          2. Illegal labor isn’t confined to blue states. The narrative in 2006 was that greedy republican ag corps brought in cheap illegal labor to work the fields and slaughterhouses in red states.

        2. “being shipped to red states.”

          Yep the churches and the Ag industry with the blessing from your ‘CONservative’ state politicians.

          1. Not to mention that about 2 million+ per month are pouring across the border. Do that for a year and you have 20-30 million brand new Nuevos Americanos to stash into small flyover communities. Load them into chartered jets at night and no one is the wiser.

          2. “being shipped to red states.”

            Seems like their benefactors would like to locate them in the battleground states.

      2. “There will be so many wipeouts that it will reach a point where properties are just sitting. Life changing deals are coming, will you be ready?”

        I just worry about my tax dollars getting allocated to bailing out homeowners who gambled on housing and lost. The gubment always favors wealthy homeowners over renters, even when said homeowners are underwater and broke.

        It’s strange, really. Why should the gubment be in the business of picking winners and losers, based on idiosyncratic household financial decisions?

  15. NASDAQ is down almost 22% YTD. Lots of Sad Panda waiting for RSUs to vest (including moi).

      1. The worst that could happen is that they could be worthless, and that could happen to some start ups when they close their doors after running out of cash. But it’s not like you pay for them. They are a bribe to keep you from leaving for other pastures. A bribe that could be worthless.

        A far bigger deal would be becoming dejobbed in the middle of a stagflationary depression. That’s when the for sale signs will pop up like dandelions in the spring.

  16. Did u catch the new Spencer movie? The screenplay writer turned Lady Di into a lesbian, despite historical evidence that she was heterosexual.

    1. Was she portrayed by black trans woman? I mean, if we’re gonna revise history, let’s do it right.

      1. No, she is portrayed by Kristen Stewart, a white lesbian. Maybe Kristen requested the writer to invent a lesbian fantasy as a plot device? Diana Spencer isn’t around to object.

        1. PinkNews | Latest lesbian, gay, bi and trans news | LGBT+ news
          PinkNews | Latest lesbian, gay, bi and trans news | LGBT+ news

          Culture
          Kristen Stewart’s ‘sweary, masturbating’ Princess Diana wins rave reviews
          Patrick Kelleher
          September 6, 2021
          Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana in Spencer

          Kristen Stewart’s Princess Diana film Spencer is already winning rave reviews since it debuted at the Venice Film Festival.

          The film, helmed by Jackie Director Pablo Larraín, has been gestating for some time – and it finally debuted to a five-minute standing ovation at the Venice Film Festival on Friday (3 September).

          Spencer sees Kristen Stewart take on Princess Diana – but it’s not like any royal drama you’ve seen before if the reviews are to be believed.

          Critics have already zoned in on some of the more unusual scenes in the film, including one in which Princess Diana imagines eating her pearl necklace, and another in which she tells an aide: “Leave me, I want to masturbate.”
          …
          https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2021/09/06/spencer-kristen-stewart-reviews/

          1. I’m so glad my kids are grown up, so they don’t have to spend their childhood inundated by Democrat-promoted state-sponsored gay pornography.

    1. People in South Denver really do not like my “TRUMP 2024” stickers because they keep drawing over them with sharpie markers or ripping them down.

      1. Perhaps you could stand nearby to see who defaces your automobile. By happenstance you had just been to Lowes to purchase a replacement shovel. You might even find the need to defend yourself and your property from a carjacker with a sharpie.

      2. “they keep drawing over them with sharpie markers or ripping them down.”

        Not interested in an open dialogue with a different point of view are they?

    2. You know the Democrats are the axis of evil when none other than Noam Chomsky – a hardcore Socialist – is singing the praises of DJT.

  18. How to steal the 2022 midterm elections.

    The Hill — Birx says US must prepare for summer COVID surge as immunity wanes (5/1/2022):

    “Each of these surges are about four to six months apart. That tells me that natural immunity wanes enough in the general population after four to six months that a significant surge is going to occur again. And this is what we have to be prepared for in this country”

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3473217-birx-says-us-must-prepare-for-summer-covid-surge-as-immunity-wanes/

    Six months?

    Yeah, the election you need to steal is only six months away.

      1. There are more people wearing masks now in Englewood and all around South Denver now than there were a month ago.

        It’s a Mass Formation Psychosis.

        Programmable robot non-player characters (aka NPC’s) are wearing masks while driving alone.

        This is a Mass Formation Psychosis.

        The Salty Cracker — https://www.bitchute.com/channel/thesaltycracker/

        “The only thing that’s real is the money laundering that’s going on over here”

    2. Yeah, the election you need to steal is only six months away.

      If they pull that off, the next two years of insanity will make the last two years look like the good old times.

      1. Also, remember, Macron had a mere 36% approval rating and he somehow managed to be reelected in a landslide. There is little doubt they will try to steal 2022, and they might pull it off. It won’t matter how bad inflation is or if unemployment has soared.

        Just look at their hubris. They are openly saying they are against free speech and are assembling a Ministry of Truth. They are increasingly saying the “quiet parts” out loud, not because they are incompetent. but because they fear no consequences. None.

  19. Nobody told me we were even in it.

    Rep. Jason Crow says US ‘is in this to win it’ after visiting Zelensky in Ukraine

    By ERNEST LUNING ernest.luning@coloradopolitics.com
    May 1, 2022
    Updated 2 hrs ago

    “Our delegation traveled to Kyiv to send an unmistakable and resounding message to the entire world: America stands firmly with Ukraine,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a joint statement for the delegation, the first congressional group visit to Ukraine since Russia invaded in late February.

    Crow, an Army ranger veteran and member of the House intelligence and armed services committees, said the focus of the meeting with Zelensky was “weapons, weapons, weapons.”

    https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/rep-jason-crow-says-us-is-in-this-to-win-it-after-visiting-zelensky-in/article_b49e6266-c9b8-11ec-8f98-efee3ec729c0.html

    1. said the focus of the meeting with Zelensky was “weapons, weapons, weapons.”

      I read somewhere that we’ve already given 1/3 of our Javelin missiles to the Ukes and that replacements are backordered for over a year.

      I think the neocons won’t be satisfied until we march into Moscow.

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing
      US Treasury bonds
      US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 3% for first time since 2018
      Fed policymakers face a ‘thick stew of uncertainties’ as they decide how much to raise rates
      Federal Reserve building
      The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday © Leah Millis/Reuters
      Nicholas Megaw in New York and Adam Samson and Harriet Clarfelt in London 7 hours ago

      The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note touched 3 per cent for the first time in more than three years on Monday, as traders prepared for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again at a time of soaring inflation and slowing growth.

      The yield on the government bond has profound effects on the economy, feeding into home mortgage rates and borrowing costs for companies. The higher yield, which rises when bond prices fall, is tightening financial conditions after two years of the coronavirus pandemic.

      The US 10-year yield edged just above 3 per cent in early afternoon trading in New York, according to Bloomberg data — double its level at the start of the year and the highest since December 2018. It later dipped back to 2.99 per cent, up 0.05 percentage points on the day.

      Yields have risen this year as the Fed takes action to try to stem US inflation, which hit 8.5 per cent on an annual basis in March — its fastest rate of increase in 40 years.

      The combination of high inflation and a weakening global economic outlook — the US economy shrank 1.4 per cent year on year in the first quarter — has raised questions about how far the Fed will be able to lift interest rates without overburdening the economy.

      Alex Roever, US rates strategist at JPMorgan, said the Fed was facing a “thick stew of uncertainties”, including rising labour costs, supply-chain problems and commodity prices that have leapt since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

      “While it’s clear that this economy doesn’t need stimulative monetary policy, what is less clear is the speed at which this stimulus should be removed, and the reasons for choosing that speed,” he added.

      The Fed is widely expected to announce an extra-large interest rate rise of half a percentage point at the end of its May policy meeting on Wednesday, and futures markets are pricing in similar half-point rises at the next two meetings.

      Short-term US interest rates are now expected to be close to 2.5 per cent by the end of 2022, up from the current range of 0.25 to 0.5 per cent.
      …

  21. Roe v Wade overturned.

    Let ever Democrat Party sh*thole city burn itself to the ground, because reasons.

    “They’re not sending their best”

  22. Linked from Revolver News.

    An Intellectual No-Fly Zone: Online Censorship of Ukraine Dissent Is Becoming the New Norm (4/25/2022):

    “Earlier this month, Google AdSense sent a message to a myriad of publishers, including MintPress News, informing us that, “Due to the war in Ukraine, we will pause monetization of content that exploits, dismisses, or condones the war.” This content, it went on to say, “includes, but is not limited to, claims that imply victims are responsible for their own tragedy or similar instances of victim-blaming, such as claims that Ukraine is committing genocide or deliberately attacking its own citizens.”

    The United States started this war.

    “This builds on a similar message Google’s subsidiary YouTube released last month, stating, “Our Community Guidelines prohibit content denying, minimizing or trivializing well-documented violent events. We are now removing content about Russia’s invasion in Ukraine that violates this policy.” YouTube went on to say that it had already permanently banned more than a thousand channels and 15,000 videos on these grounds.”

    Zelensky was installed by the CIA in 2014.

    “While support for Russia has essentially been prohibited, glorification of even the most unsavory elements of Ukrainian society on social media is now all-but-promoted. In February, Facebook announced that it would not only reverse its ban on discussing the Azov Battalion, a Nazi paramilitary now formally incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard, but also allow content praising and promoting the group – as long as it was in the context of killing Russians.”

    Russia is winning

    “Facebook and Instagram also instituted a change in policy that allows users to call for harm or even the death of Russian and Belarussian soldiers and politicians. This rare allowance was also given in 2021 to those calling for the death of Iranian leaders. Needless to say, violent content directed at governments friendly to the U.S., such as Ukraine, is still strictly forbidden.”

    https://www.mintpressnews.com/online-censorship-ukraine-russa-google-facebook-twitter/280304/

    The only good globalist is a dead globalist.

  23. Rep. Jason Crow says US ‘is in this to win it’ after visiting Zelensky in Ukraine

    By ERNEST LUNING
    May 1, 2022

    1. Zelensky dances in leather pants and heels.

      “They’re not sending their best”

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