thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Nobody Saw A Lot Of This Stuff Coming

A report from Go Banking Rates. “‘For buyers, it will be a welcome relief because it has been hell over the last few years,’ said Bill Gassett, a realtor based in Hopkinton, Massachusetts. ‘For sellers, they will have missed out on one of the best economic housing booms of our lifetime.’ Trey Langford, a real estate agent based in the Boise, Idaho, area said the frenzy in his local market is slowly starting to decline. ‘Now it takes two weekends to sell a home,’ he said. ‘The market is still hot, just slowing down from 100 mph. Last spring it seemed like every home had eight to 20 offers and now it seems like buyers are only competing with two other offers. Many sellers will need to adjust their expectations, because it is not spring 2021 still.'”

The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “Agents are noticing that sellers are being a little less aggressive about prices. And more prospective sellers are asking agents about listing, sensing that price and bargaining power may soon shift away from them. ‘The fear of the unknown is happening,’ said Angela Schliinz, chief operating officer at Kris Lindahl Real Estate. ‘They want to take advantage of what the market is presenting right now.’ An observable shift in the market is underway, Schliinz said. By the end of April, new listings were up 11% over last year. Inquiries from people who are thinking about selling their home had increased far more, she said.”

The Gilbert Sun in Arizona. “The average sale price of a single-family house in Gilbert has increased 69% in two years and while home prices likely will continue to rise, mortgage rates and an apparent cooling in demand may spell trouble ahead for sellers, a leading Valley housing analyst said last week. The Cromford Report noted that inventory of for-sale homes also is rising while the number of closings is trending downward. ‘April is supposed to be one of the best months for the market, but new contract signings are significantly lower than last year. This means active listings are staying active longer and inventory is starting to build in most (but not all) segments,’ it stated.”

“Stating that the sellers market is slowly deteriorating in 17 major Valley municipalities, the Cromford Report said that between mid-March and mid-April, Cromford Report noted, ‘We have seen a 34% increase in the number of new rental listings added to ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) compared with the same four weeks in 2021.’ It added there has also been a 20% increase in the number of rental homes available in Phoenix on the Progress Residential web site over the past four weeks.”

“And on May 1, it reported, ‘Supply has been arriving in greater quantities over the past few weeks. This applies to both rental and for-sale listings.’ Cromford also stated, ‘Red flag warning. The housing market is changing more rapidly with rising supply and falling demand. While it remains far above normal for now, the (index) is dropping fast.'”

The Pueblo Chieftain in Colorado. “Pueblo’s real estate market is still red-hot, but there are a few signs that it could be losing steam.  In April, 386 homes went on the market, up 24.2% when compared to April 2021. ‘You are seeing people putting homes on the market and the number of homes under contract are high,’ said Dave Anderson, Pueblo Association of Realtors’ number cruncher. ‘But we are seeing some price reductions and some of them are not small – $5,000 to $10,000. I am thinking that’s because sellers are expecting the homes to sell fast and if that doesn’t happen, they are lowering their price right away.'”

From KSBY in California. “Mortgage rates are rapidly increasing across the country and that’s affecting buyers on the Central Coast. Local economists say though the rates have also likely not reached their peak. ‘We’ve had the fastest increase in mortgage rates we’ve ever seen,’ said Hal Sweasey, real estate broker for Keller Williams. The increase in mortgage rates is already affecting Central Coast homebuyers. ‘You know if you were getting a loan for a million dollars back in February, now that loan is the equivalent of costing like $250,000 more,’ said Sweasey.”

“Sweasey says he’s recently seen a bit of slow down from buyers in the San Luis Obispo area due to the increase in mortgage rates. ‘It went from a frantic rate to more of a normal rate. We still have multiple offers depending on price range,’ said Sweasey.”

From Yahoo Finance. “DLB Financial Services CEO Debbie Boyd joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss rising mortgage rates, the costs homebuilders and lenders are taking on, investors taking their money out of the real estate market. ‘So if you could afford an $800,000 house before, you may be down to a $550,000 or $600,000 house. A lot’s changed in people’s finances. And so if you’re paying more on credit card bills, if your car payments have gone up, if you bought a new car since you’ve qualified, a lot of people are finding themselves kind of stuck in the middle.’ You’ve got to be qualifying all through the process. You just can’t wait to the end when you’re supposed to buy it. This is something that lenders should have been doing all along.'”

“BRIGGS: At the risk of sounding insensitive, is this failure to plan for the future? BOYD: It is for the people buying the houses, and it is for the home builders. But nobody saw a lot of this stuff coming.'”

From Bloomberg. “Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing markets. Ian Soucy, a realtor in Ottawa, said he’s been surprised by how much the market has cooled this spring. ‘Buyers are hesitant, just with the unknown of the interest rates rising,’ Soucy said, pointing to the likelihood of another 50-basis-point hike in June. Entry-level townhomes that were ‘flying off the shelves’ as recently as a couple months ago are now sitting on the market for a few weeks, he said.”

“‘After 12 years of ‘higher interest rates are just around the corner,’ here they are,’ said Shaun Cathcart, the real estate board’s senior economist.”

The Canadian Press. “‘The demand fever in Canadian housing has broken and, who would have thought, all it took was a nudge in interest rates by the Bank of Canada to change sentiment,’ said BMO Capital Markets senior analyst Robert Kavcic, in a note to investors.”

From CBC News. “Canadian home prices fell six per cent to $746,000 in April, as higher interest rates poured cold water on a red-hot real estate market. Home sales fell 12 per cent nationally in April, with the biggest drops seen in big cities like Toronto, the Canadian Real Estate Association said. Prices peaked at a record high of more than $816,000 in February this year and average home prices have now declined for two months in a row. In March, the average price stood at $796,000, before falling another six per cent in April, which is typically a strong month for the housing market.”

“Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker, gives the example of a buyer who makes an offer assuming their lender will finance 80 per cent of the cost. But when the property gets appraised, it is valued at a number much lower than the offer price, which forces the buyer to scramble to come up with a much larger down payment than they anticipated. ‘When home purchasers have really stretched their budget and bid over asking price, we are starting to see those appraisals come in a little bit lower in some cases,’ Zlatkin told CBC News.”

“A slowing market is also anxiety-inducing for those who jumped in at the peak and have buyer’s remorse now. That’s something recent buyers Joshua Keyes and Yuri Nakashima are sadly familiar with, after buying their first home in Sudbury, Ont., earlier this year. Since they were living in Vancouver, they worked with a Sudbury-based realtor who the couple says didn’t encourage enough due diligence, causing them to offer far over asking price for a property that has since proven to have numerous problems with water and other damages, a cockroach infestation and other structural issues.”

“They say they didn’t view the home virtually or in person before submitting their unconditional offer, with no home inspection. They say they now face a six-figure bill to repair their currently uninhabitable dream home. ‘We’re hoping that our story serves as a cautionary tale for other first-time home buyers,’ Keyes told CBC in an interview. ‘Make sure you do your due diligence or else people will take advantage of your ignorance.'”

From Bloomberg. “China’s main bond trading platform for foreign investors has quietly stopped providing data on their transactions, a move that may heighten concerns about transparency in the nation’s $20 trillion debt market after record outflows. Daily trades by overseas investors were last provided for May 11 by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. The data showed sizable net foreign outflows that day, with some selling also seen for most days in April, the people said.”

“It’s unclear why CFETS stopped publishing the figures, which are typically updated one day later, the people said. There was also no indication of whether the move was temporary or related to the lockdown of Shanghai, the nation’s onshore financial capital. A spokesperson for CFETS — which is affiliated with China’s central bank and compiles data on the so-called interbank market — didn’t respond to a request for comment.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 146 Comments

    1. So much wasted potential.

      I wish there was some way I could have mentored him to channel that destructive energy into something more positive and productive.

      1. It’s mind-boggling that an individual who had shown clear indications of being mentally ill and had previously come to the attention of law enforcement due to threats of conducting a mass shooting was able to legally procure an AR-15. Right now the mental health “profession” in this country is aimed at monetizing afflictions like depression rather than curing or alleviating them. That needs to change, given the societal consequences of untreated mental illness.

        1. Right now the mental health “profession” in this country is aimed at monetizing afflictions like depression rather than curing or alleviating them.

          I think this is true of the medical industrial complex in general.

        2. We need to institutionalize the crazies. Like men who think they are women and can give birth. Nutzo’s I tell you.

  3. ‘China’s main bond trading platform for foreign investors has quietly stopped providing data on their transactions’

    The media isn’t pointing out how serious this is. Can you imagine if the US said, oh we’re not paying Asian bond holders. Or we’re not going to tell you how many bonds Asians have sold.

    All hell would break loose, but this outrageous stuff isn’t being noted. China as we know it may be going up in smoke before our eyes, and I said before they look like they are dumping the credit markets – burning their bridges.

    1. Might be related to the following published on 5/15.

      BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) -China’s property sales in April fell at their fastest pace in around 16 years as COVID-19 lockdowns further cooled demand despite more policy easing steps aimed at reviving a key pillar of the world’s second-largest economy.

      Property sales by value in April slumped 46.6% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since August 2006, and sharply widening from the 26.17% fall in March, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Monday.

      Property sales in January-April by value fell 29.5% year-on-year, compared with a 22.7% decline in the first three months.

    1. people who incessantly complain about things but never take action to help the situation are the biggest hypocrites.

      don’t like twitter? then, if you can’t change their behavior, change YOURS.

      DON’T.USE.IT!
      let it go the way of MySpace.

      1. I am expecting those often repeated & trite insults to be trotted out by used house salesmen very soon now, upset that lemmings are not marching over the cliff in lockstep providing ez real estate commissions;

        ” we’re not going to GIVE it away!”
        ” fence sitters won’t pull the trigger!”
        ” getting nothing but insulting offers!”
        ” my sister is included with the furniture. her name is Shirl.”

      2. It already is heading towards Myspace status, if not already there. The fake accounts and inflated user numbers are becoming increasingly clear with Musk’s due diligence.

        1. “It already is heading towards Myspace status,”

          It was before the Musk offer. Gotta wonder how smart Musk really is if he really wanted to spend that kind of money on Twtr……

          1. He set a trap for the four-hour-a-week CIA-funded commies.

            They don’t play chess. Candycrush is their jam.

            The fact that they don’t connect the dots between their lack of productivity and the prevalence of mental illness-related leaves at their workplace is the clearest tell.

            They’re dying, but their souls are going first and shrieking in fury at the dying of the light.

      3. The Twitter board of directors are the ultimate insiders, and they own almost no shares. They know the true status of the company, and it’s not good.

      4. DON’T.USE.IT!
        let it go the way of MySpace.

        +1

        In general people seem quick to complain, but if being part of the solution means they need to give something up/sacrifice/be inconvenienced, they want nothing to do with it.

        1. I was on Twitter a week, banned. FB, banned. Zero Hedge, banned. Hell, Citizens Free Press banned me.

          Something’s wrong with Ben.

  5. ‘The demand fever in Canadian housing has broken and, who would have thought, all it took was a nudge in interest rates by the Bank of Canada to change sentiment’

    Ten years of jaw flapping and 3 months to crater with one rate increase.

    1. One thing that was interesting. I assumed that Condos would drop fastest. It was actually townhouses (including semi-detached) that fell the most. This might indicate that folks overspent to get into a ‘house’ during the pandemic.

      Also the impact of just a single 50bp increase.
      “The market balance has gone from drum tight with ‘not enough supply,’ to one that resembles the 2017-19 correction period.”

      Sondhi believes the Toronto market is now close to tipping in favour of buyers, but in the coming months, expects prices to continue falling nationally, reflecting the cooler demand backdrop.

  6. It’s all about neighbors helping neighbors.

    Cleaning graffiti off of buildings, keeping the bad element out of the neighborhood.

    1. ‘The real president is whoever controls the teleprompter’

      Isn’t it also true for George W and Obama? Why pick on 80 yr old man.

  8. ‘Supply has been arriving in greater quantities over the past few weeks. This applies to both rental and for-sale listings.’ Cromford also stated, ‘Red flag warning. The housing market is changing more rapidly with rising supply and falling demand. While it remains far above normal for now, the (index) is dropping fast’

    I’ve been watching the bug eyed UHS go over this with detail in videos. I’d bet the sale of adult diapers is through the roof in Phoenix. They are fooked and they know it. Gilbert up 60%, eh? Where is Gilbert?

    1. I am having a hard time imagining which area is going to crater worse – greater Phoenix or Boise. Phoenix has some of the worst weather on the planet. Why somebody would want to live there in the summer is beyond my imagination. And Boise is just….. Boise. 80% off seems realistic.

  9. ‘The increase in mortgage rates is already affecting Central Coast homebuyers. ‘You know if you were getting a loan for a million dollars back in February, now that loan is the equivalent of costing like $250,000 more’

    Gone are the shortages, the weather. It’s all down to credit Hal. Don’t trip over a bum on yer way home.

    1. The Financial Times
      Bitcoin
      Bitcoin has no future as a payments network, says FTX chief

      Bankman-Fried criticises biggest digital asset over inefficiency and high environmental costs

      Sam Bankman-Fried against a Hong Kong skyline

      Sam Bankman-Fried, founder and chief executive of FTX, says ‘the bitcoin network is not a payments network and it is not a scaling network’

      Joshua Oliver
      May 15 2022

      Bitcoin has no future as a payments network because of its inefficiency and high environmental costs, according to one of crypto’s most influential chief executives.

      Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the digital asset exchange FTX, said the proof of work system of validating blockchain transactions, which underpins bitcoin, was not capable of scaling up to cope with the millions of transactions that would be needed to make the cryptocurrency an effective means of payment.

      “The bitcoin network is not a payments network and it is not a scaling network,” said Bankman-Fried.

      His comments came as the fast-growing cryptocurrency market was hit by a punishing sell-off that left bitcoin down by more than 35 per cent since January, at its lowest level since late 2020.

      Bitcoin is still seen by some crypto enthusiasts as a way to conduct everyday transactions.

      Countries such as El Salvador and the Central African Republic have adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender. But recent research by academics in the US found that Bitcoin has scarcely been used for daily payments in El Salvador, despite the rollout of bitcoin ATMs and other measures to encourage its use.

      The 30-year-old billionaire, who has expanded FTX into one of the world’s largest virtual asset exchanges, said an alternative type of blockchain known as proof of stake, or other technological innovations, would be required to create a functional crypto payments network.
      …

      2. “…Bitcoin has no future as a payments network because of its inefficiency and high environmental costs, according to one of crypto’s most influential chief executives….” “…Sam Bankman-Fried…”

        Sam Bankman-Fried is correct. Block-chain based ledger systems (upon which BitCoin is based) doesn’t scale linearly.

        Like trying to push start your car with 10 million butterflies.

        Another huge issue, that you will never see discussed in the MSM, is (as of this morning) 19,464 different crypto currencies available (per CoinMarketCap). Not unlike the situation of 150 years ago when states and even banks issued their own paper currency. How do you interchange? Who / how gets a exchange fee? Who backs the currency?

        Crypto will continue to exist for specialized uses (organized crime, money laundering, tax evasion, etc) in which inherent inefficiencies will be ignored, but not for general daily commerce.

        1. “19,464 different crypto currencies available”

          Does the total dollar value of cryptocurrencies scale up with the number of cryptocurrencies?
          If not, they must be declining in value, on average.

          1. According to the site CoinMarketCap current ‘value’ of all cryptos as of today is $1.302T. Most of that marketcap are held by the top 10 Cryptos. (Bitcoin is currently #1)

          1. It depends on which side of the decimal point, and which side of the bet you take.

  11. ‘In April, 386 homes went on the market, up 24.2% when compared to April 2021. ‘You are seeing people putting homes on the market and the number of homes under contract are high,’ said Dave Anderson, Pueblo Association of Realtors’ number cruncher. ‘But we are seeing some price reductions and some of them are not small – $5,000 to $10,000. I am thinking that’s because sellers are expecting the homes to sell fast and if that doesn’t happen, they are lowering their price right away.’

    Wa happened to my days on market Dave? Where is Pueblo anyway, in relation to Bakersfield?

  13. ‘The fear of the unknown is happening,’ said Angela Schliinz, chief operating officer at Kris Lindahl Real Estate. ‘They want to take advantage of what the market is presenting right now.’ An observable shift in the market is underway, Schliinz said. By the end of April, new listings were up 11% over last year. Inquiries from people who are thinking about selling their home had increased far more’

    Keep calm, please don’t rush the exit. That dot in the sky is Harry Potter setting up a can of a$$ poundings.

    1. I’m looking forward to attending lots of San Diego open houses as a LookyLoo over the next few years after inventory quickly rebounds from zero to 60.

  14. Globalist media lies & propaganda tell their own kind of truth. In the wake of the Buffalo spree killing, all globalist media noted the gunman was influenced by the “Great Replacement Theory” which the talking heads assure us is “baseless” and a “conspiracy theory.” Yet it hasn’t escaped my notice that literally every globalist media and “entertainment” advertisement aimed at young white women seeks to convince them that they can never be happy or fulfilled unless they take a non-white male to be their sexual partner or mate. One of these things is not like the other….

    CNN link posted for instructional purposes only. #KnowYourNarrative

    What is White ‘replacement theory’ and how is it driving gunmen today

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYG6iKt6Owo

    1. Ask Mark Potok and the Southern Poverty Law Center about “replacement theory.”

      Ask Jonathan Greenblatt and the Anti Defamation League about “replacement theory.”

      I’m not afraid to ask those questions, but Real Journalists sure are.

  15. What a great quote from the Yahoo Finance Article in the blog posting above. If this could be just a 1min story on the national broadcasts, this could save a lot of people a lot of pain.

    ‘So if you could afford an $800,000 house before, you may be down to a $550,000 or $600,000 house. A lot’s changed in people’s finances. And so if you’re paying more on credit card bills, if your car payments have gone up, if you bought a new car since you’ve qualified, a lot of people are finding themselves kind of stuck in the middle.’

    2. Those Hollywood quality pictures are certainly a wonder. But that’s not winning.

      Hundreds of Azov (you know what they are) have just come out of the catacombs with a white flag and surrendered to the Russians, who just sit and wait for them to get hungry. That’s not winning either.

  17. ‘The fear of the unknown is happening,’ said Angela Schliinz, chief operating officer at Kris Lindahl Real Estate. ‘They want to take advantage of what the market is presenting right now.’

    The best way to exploit soon-to-be-cratering shack prices is to sit on the sidelines and wait for the implosion of the Fed’s Everything Bubble. It won’t be long now.

    1. Regardless of what the future will bring, it’s always a good idea to not buy what you cannot afford and don’t need.

      If it’s going to take 20 or 30 years to pay off a loan, you can’t afford it.

    1. The war in Ukraine’s interruption to wheat

      The US precipitated said war with eight years of backing genocide in Ukraine. Yellen and her ilk should be apologizing, not posturing.

  19. “Pueblo’s real estate market is still red-hot, but there are a few signs that it could be losing steam.

    Pueblo is a gang-infested barrio town in a terminal decline.

    1. I took it as an admission that basically everything we see, hear, and read in the mainstream media/social media is curated by the military-intelligence apparatus.

  22. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “One of the biggest-ever” Nato drills was planned 40 miles from a military base in Russia that included Finland and Sweden?

    Nato begins its military exercises in Baltics

    By Malu Cursino
    BBC News

    Published 21 hours ago

    One of the biggest-ever Nato exercises in the Baltics is now under way.

    Named “Hedgehog”, the drills involve 10 countries, including Finland and Sweden, which are expected to formally apply to join the alliance within days.

    The exercises in Estonia, which will last until 3 June, were arranged before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Vladimir Putin has said Russia has no issue with Finland or Sweden, but a military expansion near its border would demand a reaction.

    Some 15,000 troops are involved in the exercise in Estonia, making it one of the largest military drills held in the country since 1991.

    The exercise is taking place 64km (40 miles) from Russia’s nearest military base. It is intended to simulate an attack from Russia on Estonia.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61464104

  23. BOYD: It is for the people buying the houses, and it is for the home builders. But nobody saw a lot of this stuff coming.‘”

    THERE IT IS THE FIRST: NO one could have seen it coming! COMING!!

  24. “They say they didn’t view the home virtually or in person before submitting their unconditional offer, with no home inspection.”

    Lol wut.

    1. So let me get this straight. The Federal Reserve is trying to decrease the rate of inflation using housing as its primary mechanism. Meanwhile Newsom and now the Biden administration are going to do just the opposite of what the Fed is trying to do by trying to boost the housing market increasing inflation.

      Are we living in an insane asylum???

      1. “Are we living in an insane asylum???”

        To answer you with a question, do you live in California?

    3. I figure you could get $250K for free buying a house in Tiberon. There’s no restriction on how much savings you have. So yeah as long as their income isn’t over $106,888 (80% of median for Tiberon) this year you could pay 90% cash for a retirement home and “Newsom bucks” will provide the $250K+ down payment free.

      https://www.calhfa.ca.gov/homebuyer/programs/forgivable.htm

      https://ami-lookup-tool.fanniemae.com/amilookuptool/

      That’s a quarter mill “Newsom bucks!”

  26. California Association of Realtors [TM] monthly update May 17, 2022

    “The number of active listings surged more than 20 percent on a year-over-year basis and recorded the highest yearly growth in properties for sale since January 2019.”

    https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2022releases/apr2022sales

    So far most of the increase in inventory has been due to lack of demand and absorption of older inventory (at these price levels and interest rates). Not much new inventory yet. But that may start to change soon.

    Been a while since I’ve seen for sale signs all over the place. Probably will later this summer.

    Happy renting!

  27. Is it safe to buy the great big dip, now that the stock market has capitulated to fully price in the Fed’s planned series of future rate hikes?

    1. I forgot to mention, but of course the omniscient, forward looking Mr Market has also fully priced in the Fed’s announced plans for balance sheet shrinkage / Quantitative Tightening.

    2. Central Banks

      Fed’s Bullard Says Markets Have Priced in Central Bank Tightening
      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president says U.S. economic outlook looks solid
      Powell Explains Fed Decision to Raise Rates a Half-Percentage Point
      You may also like
      Your browser does not support HTML5 video.
      Powell Explains Fed Decision to Raise Rates a Half-Percentage Point
      Powell Explains Fed Decision to Raise Rates a Half-Percentage PointPlay video: Powell Explains Fed Decision to Raise Rates a Half-Percentage Point
      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in early May the central bank approved a half-percentage-point interest-rate increase in an effort to reduce inflation that is running at a four-decade high. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
      By Michael S. Derby
      May 17, 2022 10:30 am ET
      Share
      Text

      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard reiterated Tuesday that the U.S. central bank is on track for half-percentage-point rate rises at the next couple of policy meetings.

      “We have a good plan for now” and it’s up to the Fed to ratify the tighter stance of monetary policy financial markets have priced in, Mr. Bullard said in a public appearance.
      …
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-bullard-says-markets-have-priced-in-central-bank-tightening-11652797811

      1. All these clowns ever talk about is the stock market, yet I can’t find anything in their mandate about the stock market, only about stable prices and full employment. And Bernanke just came out and said Powell was scared the markets would pull another taper tantrum, so he didn’t raise when he should have. Again, why is the FED looking at stock markets instead of their mandate, and where is the oversight? Because from here it looks like a totally illegitimate fraud organization at this point.

    3. The Wall Street Journal
      Central Banks
      Fed’s Bullard Says Markets Have Priced in Central Bank Tightening
      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president says U.S. economic outlook looks solid
      Powell Explains Fed Decision to Raise Rates a Half-Percentage Point
      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in early May the central bank approved a half-percentage-point interest-rate increase in an effort to reduce inflation that is running at a four-decade high.
      Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
      By Michael S. Derby
      May 17, 2022 10:30 am ET

      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard reiterated Tuesday that the U.S. central bank is on track for half-percentage-point rate rises at the next couple of policy meetings.

      “We have a good plan for now” and it’s up to the Fed to ratify the tighter stance of monetary policy financial markets have priced in, Mr. Bullard said in a public appearance.
      …
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-bullard-says-markets-have-priced-in-central-bank-tightening-11652797811

      1. Sorry about the double post. I do think the article is interesting. I don’t know how or when Mr Market became so omniscient and forward looking.

  28. Denver metro averaging nearly 100 stolen cars a day, according to report

    C-MATT (Colorado Metropolitan Auto Theft Taskforce) says they are arresting the same people and putting them in jail only to then re-arrest them.

    Imagine that, you release car thieves and they go out and steal more cars. No one could have seen that coming!

    This problem is so bad that multiple cars are being stolen daily from airport parking lots.

    2. Is this just Denver? Or is this going on in smaller towns like Fort Collins, Boulder, etc.

      1. It’s nowhere nearly as bad in Larimer County (Ft. Collins), but it is getting worse.

        FWIW, Boulder is part of the Denver metro area. Fort Collins is not.

    3. Every morning I come downstairs I expect my work van to not be there.

      Not just the van, but all the goodies these junkies and tweakers imagine is inside there.

      I don’t keep any copper in the van overnight, it’s all either at the shop or locked up inside the job.

      1. Where is it still safe to live in the United States anymore? I mean that’s affordable for the average Joe?

        1. I talked someone out of hosting a get together at the Brown Palace in downtown Denver, on the grounds that the walk from the car to the Brown Palace could be unpleasant and even unsafe, plus that the cars could be stolen. The social has been moved to Ft. Collins.

          1. The Springs is getting worse, and with all the development, it’s loosing it’s small city charm.

        2. It’s no longer cheap to live in eastern Washington’s Columbia Basin area, e.g., Ephrata, Moses Lake, Quincy, etc., as every swinging dick is buying up the older worn-out houses, give ’em a fresh coat of latex and rent them. But the area’s household net income doesn’t align with the monthly rent, and that’s with both of them working while granny watches the kids. Our neighbors across the street are one such couple. They just bought two new cars, sport his and hers tattoos, both have kids from previous marriages in addition to their own, bicycles, lawn mowers and toys are strewn across the front yard and left out over night, etc., just like that Idiocracy trailer. How long can this last?

        3. “Where is it still safe to live in the United States anymore?”

          Small mid-west towns not yet ‘diversified.’

      2. Every morning I come downstairs I expect my work van to not be there.

        Where do you keep your car (A Subaru, IIRC). Is it locked in a garage, or do you no longer have it?

        1. It is parked in a garage adjacent to vehicles double or even triple its value.

          I worry less about the Subaru because it is keyless entry/ignition. The van could be an easy steal. It would be a very brazen, and visible steal, but if some tweaker really wanted it, they’ll take it.

          There are no tools or copper in the van, just random sh*t with almost no re-sale value that would not be of any value to anyone but a commercial electrician.

          1. A steering wheel lock is very effective in these situations. Your random crackhead will see it as too much effort and will focus on an easier score. With a good steering wheel lock they will only steal it if they plan it out and really want it bad. One night at a beach stop-over in Texas my truck was untouched while the car next to it had the steering wheel column ripped apart. Steering wheel locks are worth every penny if you park in sketchy areas.

    2. Builder Confidence Plunges

      Good, maybe they’ll finally be willing to negotiate contracts and clients/customers will no longer get totally screwed.

      1. Perhaps its has something to do with the rampant appraisal fraud in the resale market.;)

    2. Not a day goes by without me pondering if I should sell everything I have and leave the country. Of course the big question is: and go where? It seems like everywhere is phuqed.

      1. I’m with you…..not that I have that feeling about leaving the country, but overall I’m not seeing the better alternatives for places to live, how to store/invest savings, etc.

        It seems we need to stay where we are and fight, try to put things back the way they were

        1. stay where we are

          But you already moved!

          Stay rational and be kind to neighbors when possible.

      2. I had never in my life even considered moving or wanting to move to another country, yet the thought has occurred to me over the past few months. I think first and foremost because of how shot through with corruption the government is, particularly the Justice Dept. – FBI, CIA – and how the rule of law is pretty much gone. The courts are infiltrated. I think the country is on the verge of collapse.

  31. Jobsite anecdotal: I was talking to some HVAC guys on our site today and they told me that their RTU vendor has stopped accepting orders for the rest of 2022.

    And when they resume taking orders in 2023, it will be 6-8 months out before they can get shipped.

    “Two weeks to flatten the curve”

    “We’re all in this together”

    2. I’ve been waiting and frankly getting the runaround on an MCC since… get this…. last October. Typical lead time for MCC and switches once the submittal goes around a million times? 12 weeks. They got my money but I got no MCC. I have to chase and hunt these pukes down every week. A few weeks ago they they finally admitted they don’t know when they’ll deliver and won’t give me a date. Now the lawyers are handling it. fuq-em.

        1. Can’t make a killing in res because of all the brown envelopes. We go for the gusto.

    3. Great replies everybody.

      It feels like we are living through an actual economic collapse. Obviously the ultra-rich and anybody dragging along on their coat-tails for the New York Times and the Washington Post, will *ALWAYS* get theirs, because it’s like illegal and stuff for them to not get theirs, because they are *better* than you, stupid peasant …

      1. When we donate money to the HBB it pays for a subscription to the Epoch Times and other news sources so they can be read and discussed here.

        The Epoch Times article that our blog host posted here recently, about the former Pfizer executive, and all the people who have died from the vaccines, you’ll never get that from the Real Journalists.

      2. It feels like we are living through an actual economic collapse.

        Just wait until they can’t get parts for the power grid and lights start going out.

    1. The Financial Times
      Chinese economy
      China’s economic activity plummets as Covid lockdowns hit growth
      Consumer and industrial output plunge as country counts cost of Xi Jinping’s coronavirus strategy
      A worker wearing a protective suit crosses an intersection while disinfecting the area outside a Covid-19 testing site in Beijing on Friday
      China has launched a mass testing and quarantine campaign across swaths of the country to combat its latest Covid-19 outbreak
      Thomas Hale and Jennifer Creery in Hong Kong
      May 16 2022

      China’s economic activity contracted sharply in April as a wave of lockdowns across the country posed the most significant challenge to its growth prospects since Covid-19 emerged more than two years ago.

      Retail sales, the country’s main gauge of consumer activity, slumped 11.1 per cent year on year, compared with forecasts of a 6.6 per cent fall by economists polled by Bloomberg. Retail sales dropped in March, down 3.5 per cent year on year.

      Industrial production, which underpinned China’s rapid economic recovery from the initial Covid shock in early 2020 and was expected to rise slightly despite the recent restrictions, dropped 2.9 per cent.
      …

  35. Is it safe to assume at this point that inflation is fully contained and central bankers can successfully end their policy tightening campaigns to bring it under control?

    1. The Financial Times
      UK inflation
      UK inflation jumps to 40-year high of 9%
      Soaring gas and electricity bills deepen the cost of living crisis
      Steam rises from the top of a kettle
      ONS said the 54% rise in Britain’s energy price cap in April caused almost three-quarters of the rise in the inflation rate that month
      Chris Giles in London
      3 hours ago

      UK inflation hit 9 per cent in April, its highest level in more than 40 years, after soaring gas and electricity bills intensified the cost of living crisis facing households.

      The rate of consumer price inflation is almost double the rate the Bank of England expected only six months ago.

      With economic activity slowing sharply during the first quarter of the year, the UK economy is suffering its worst bout of stagflation — weak growth alongside high inflation — since the second oil shock of the 1970s.

      CPI inflation rose from 7 per cent in March to 9 per cent in April, putting it at the highest level among G7 countries and among the highest of any advanced economy in the world.

      It is expected to rise further in the autumn to more than 10 per cent.
      …

    2. Inflation is the ‘top problem’ facing America, with no other issue coming close, survey shows
      Published Mon, May 16 20222:08 PM EDT
      thumbnail
      Kate Dore, CFP®
      Key Points
      — Amid swelling prices, most Americans see inflation as the biggest issue facing the country — far exceeding other concerns, according to a Pew Research survey.
      — Some 70% say inflation is “a very big problem” for the country, followed by roughly 55% for health-care affordability and violent crime.
      — While 84% of Republicans say inflation is the top issue, only 57% of Democrats were most concerned about rising prices.

      A worker stocks items inside a grocery store in San Francisco, California, May 2, 2022.
      David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

      Amid swelling prices, most Americans see inflation as the biggest issue facing the country — far exceeding other concerns, according to a survey from Pew Research.

      Some 70% say inflation is “a very big problem” for the country, followed by roughly 55% for health-care affordability and violent crime, based on a poll of 5,074 U.S. adults in April and May 2022.

      However, responses varied by political affiliation, with 84% of Republicans and right-leaning independents saying inflation is the top issue. By contrast, 57% of Democrats and left-leaning independents were most concerned about rising prices.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/inflation-is-the-top-problem-facing-america-survey-shows-.html

    3. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Real Estate
      Weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers tumbles 12%, as higher interest rates take their toll
      Published Wed, May 18 2022
      7:00 AM EDT
      Diana Olick

      Key Points
      — The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.49% from 5.53%
      — Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 12% week to week and were 15% lower compared with the same week one year ago.
      — Applications to refinance a home loan continued their landslide, falling another 10% week to week.

      A sign of a home for sale is pictured in Alhambra, California on May 4, 2022.
      Frederic J. Brown | AFP | Getty Images

      Mortgage rates actually fell slightly last week, but the damage has already been done to housing affordability. Both refinance and purchase loan demand dropped, pulling total mortgage application volume down 11% for the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

      Mortgage applications to purchase a home declined 12% week to week and were 15% lower compared with the same week one year ago. That was the first weekly drop in homebuyer demand since the third week in April. Mortgage rates have risen over 2 full percentage points since the start of the year, and home prices are up more than 20% from a year ago.

      The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.49% from 5.53%, with points increasing to 0.74 from 0.73 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

      Inflation isn’t helping consumers feel particularly flush either.

      “General uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook, as well as recent stock market volatility, may be causing some households to delay their home search,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/weekly-mortgage-demand-from-homebuyers-tumbles-12percent.html

      1. “…but the damage has already been done to housing affordability.”

        Does affordability refer to how much dumb borrowed money marginally qualified buyers can bring to the table to purchase a home, or the prices for which homes sell? Me confused…

        It would be better if real journalists said that higher mortgage rates led to a drop in demand for home purchase and refinance, and left affordability out of the discussion.

      2. “Mortgage rates have risen over 2 full percentage points since the start of the year, and home prices are up more than 20% from a year ago.”

        Sounds like the ingredients for a collapse in home sales.

    4. Yahoo
      Fortune
      Runaway diesel prices threaten to do a lot more than make inflation worse—American infrastructure is at stake
      Tristan Bove
      Tue, May 17, 2022, 9:58 AM·4 min

      High gasoline prices are hitting Americans hard, with the national gas price average sitting at $4.48 per gallon on Monday, up nearly $1.50 from a year ago.

      But it’s even worse for drivers who rely on diesel fuel.

      The national U.S. average price for diesel is now $5.56, its highest on record. In the U.K. diesel prices are now over £1.80 a liter, a record high for that country.

      The average driver in the U.S. doesn’t rely on diesel, as it’s commonly used by truck drivers and heavy farming vehicles. But sky-high diesel prices could not only aggravate an inflation problem that is already hurting U.S. consumers—they could have dire implications for U.S. infrastructure, and the fate of the global supply chain.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/runaway-diesel-prices-threaten-lot-165812112.html

    5. Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down
      Central bank chief voices confidence in ability to curb rising prices without triggering recession but notes challenges ahead
      Fed Chair Says Taming Inflation Could Lead to Bumpy Landing
      Jerome Powell told the WSJ Future of Everything Festival he expects some economic pain as the Fed’s measures to curb inflation affect the labor market. Photo: Andy Davis for The Wall Street Journal
      By Nick Timiraos
      and Michael S. Derby
      Updated May 17, 2022 11:54 pm ET

      Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank’s resolve in combating the highest inflation in 40 years shouldn’t be questioned, even if it requires pushing up unemployment.

      “Restoring price stability is an unconditional need. It is something we have to do,” Mr. Powell said in an interview Tuesday during The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival. “There could be some pain involved.”
      …
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-powell-to-take-wsj-questions-on-inflation-and-economic-outlook-11652779802

  36. Summit News — Orban Warns West is Subjecting Itself to “Suicide Waves” of Decline (5/17/2022):

    “Everything that has happened since 2020 points in one direction: Europe and the Hungarian people in it have entered an age of danger,” said Orbán. “The decade began with the coronavirus epidemic and continued with the war. The sanctions from the war brought an economic downturn.”

    “The war and sanctions policy caused an energy crisis, and U.S. interest rate hikes brought an age of inflation,” he added.

    The Hungarian leader went on to lament that Europe was entering an “age of economic downturn” and a worsening mass migration problem.

    Orbán said we are now witnessing the “suicide waves of the Western world” characterized by the replacement of Christianity with a vacuous cult of identity politics.

    https://summit.news/2022/05/17/orban-warns-west-is-subjecting-itself-to-suicide-waves-of-decline/

    Replacement?

    Why does that word sound so familiar?

    1. “Such is the program of the great European population exchange, the essence of which is to replace the missing Christian children with migrants. Such an experiment is a program of gender madness and a liberal Europe that transcends nation-states and Christianity, and puts nothing in their place,” said Orbán.

      Globalists gonna globe.

    2. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is blocking a European Union ban on Russian oil imports, a supply that is putting tens of billions of dollars every month into Mr. Putin’s war machine.

      1. I read an op-ed that stated that the way to stick it to Putin is via a rapid pivot to clean energy.

        I don’t know what these people are thinking. Are we supposed to replace all of our ICE cars over just a few months? Even if we could, how would we charge them? These people are so out of touch, it’s scary.

        1. Are we supposed to replace all of our ICE cars

          No. Obviously the way to achieve this objective is to stop driving altogether. Also turn the damn light off. Your misery will stick it to Putin, good and hard.

        2. For the European incumbents a major reduction in energy supplies will cripple their economies spelling certain doom to their administrations. Hence, the reluctance.

  37. I post Russia Today links because the western media are all globalist scum.

    Russia Today — Americans paying record prices at the pump (5/17/2022):

    “US gasoline prices have been setting all-time highs on a daily basis over the past two weeks, according to American Automobile Association (AAA) data. The national average hit a record $4.523 per gallon (3.785 liters) on Tuesday, with every US state now averaging more than $4.

    California’s state average for a gallon of gasoline has surged above $6, making fuel in the Golden State the most expensive across the United States. Prices are up 31 cents over the last month, and are $1.89 higher than a year ago.”

    https://www.rt.com/business/555643-us-gasoline-prices-record-high/

    Globalist. Scum. Media.

    If you want some misinformation, go read the New York Times and the Washington Post.

    Or even better, GO BACK TO REDDIT.

    1. Here’s some good news for a Wednesday.

      Politico — Fall of Mariupol appears at hand (5/17/2022):

      “Mariupol appeared on the verge of falling to the Russians on Tuesday as Ukraine moved to abandon the steel plant where hundreds of its fighters had held out for months under relentless bombardment in the last bastion of resistance in the devastated city.”

      Quoting Nelson Muntz from the Simpsons: HA HA

      “While Russia called it a surrender, the Ukrainians avoided that word and instead said the plant’s garrison had successfully completed its mission to tie down Russian forces and was under new orders.”

      https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/17/fall-mariupol-ukraine-russia-00033311

      Russia is winning.

      1. and was under new orders

        The new orders are to go quietly to detention centers in Russia controlled Donbass. Ironically their orders had been to fight to the last man. Kiev changed the orders after the Azov soldiers disobeyed the original orders and surrendered.

    1. The Financial Times
      Tether
      Investors pull $7bn from Tether as stablecoin jitters intensify
      Tether’s market value falls 9% after stablecoin briefly lost peg against US dollar
      Smartphone with Tether logo
      The outflows from Tether came after the stablecoin last week traded at about 95 cents, below the $1 level it seeks to maintain, sparking fears about the stability of the crypto market
      © Dado Ruvic/Reuters
      Scott Chipolina in London
      May 16 2022

      Traders have yanked $7bn from Tether since the world’s biggest stablecoin last week briefly lost its peg against the US dollar, intensifying concerns about the assets that underpin the global cryptocurrency market.

      Tether’s market value has fallen by 9 per cent since May 12 to $76bn as tokens have been removed from circulation to meet redemption requests, CryptoCompare data show. The decline came after Tether last Thursday traded at about 95 cents, well below the $1 level it seeks to maintain following the failure of a smaller rival.

      Observers inside and outside the crypto market have warned that deeper or more lasting volatility in stablecoins, which are designed to maintain a one-to-one peg with the dollar, could drag down the value of thousands of speculative crypto assets that have drawn buyers around the world.
      …

      1. …that have drawn buyers around the world.”

        The planet hasn’t run out of greater fools, just yet.

      2. Traders have yanked $7bn from Tether

        We know “they” didn’t yank out $7bn. Some might have walked with actual money in hand, the rest saw their imaginary valuations go poof.

        Articles written for idiots about a so-called product for idiots.

  39. Boom!
    https://youtu.be/FxkBT-AK3n8 (share this link on social media)
    The housing crash could quickly become a collapse. Don’t worry though, the market won’t go into a deep violent reversal until I buy. 🤣
    My husband has been pressuring me to buy no matter what and I’ve been warning him all along that he’ll be sorry. When we were preparing an offer for a new construction house on April 27th and the builder’s lender told me straight up they got the official alert that day the housing market is crashing, my husband wised up and said, “nope, we’re not buying.” We’re currently moving into our 1 year lease rental so I win. 😁 Although, who thinks the crash is happening too fast and the Fed/Gov/Bankers will manipulate the market to pump the brakes on the crash? (If so, I’m still screwed!) Or is the RE market the sacrificial lamb to kill inflation?

Comments are closed.