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Some Of The Crazy Stuff Is Calming Down

A report from 5280 on Colorado. “Will 2019 be the year you finally find (and get!) your Denver dream home? The metro-area’s hot housing market has definitely cooled, so much so that in the suburbs, the luxury sector has officially become a buyer’s market. According to the DMAR Market Trends December report, overall housing inventory in November 2018 was 46.76 percent higher than in November 2017.”

“Outside the luxury market, we’re seeing more sluggish sales going into the new year. DMAR’s latest snapshot shows a 17.27 percent drop in sales between October 2018 and November 2018, making this November’s number of transactions the lowest in the past three years.”

“In recent weeks, Jill Schafer, DMAR Market Trends committee chair, has even seen sellers taking contingency contracts. ‘Anecdotally, I would say that buyers are less panicked,’ she says. ‘Some of the crazy stuff we’ve seen is calming down. Sellers are still getting good prices, but buyers aren’t feeling like they have to put all their chips on the table.'”

“A seasonal slowdown is typical, Schafer says, but in terms of prices, ‘we’re still higher year over year.’ ‘I expect to see prices continue to go up,’ Schafer says, ‘just not crazy double digits. I think we’ll be in a healthier 6 to 8 percent range.'”

From My Northwest in Washington. “With Seattle’s home prices already falling, recent reports see that trend continuing into the new year. According to Redfin, a handful of major housing markets that saw prices go up in 2018 will ‘experience the biggest slowdowns in price growth in the first half of 2019.'”

“Such markets include Seattle, San Francisco, Portland, San Diego, Los Angeles, Denver, and Honolulu, where Redfin expects ‘demand to cool the most. ‘”

“That seems to fall in line with data published in a recent report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. In the report, the NMLS predicted less of a free-fall in home prices, and more of a balancing of rates.”

“‘We will experience a strong/surge housing market in the spring, which will taper off to a strong market for the remainder of 2019,’ said J. Lennox Scott, John L. Scott Real Estate CEO, in the report. This aligns with falling home prices in late-2018 across the Seattle area.”

From New Jersey Advance Media. “Originally listed for $2.4 million, ex-WFAN host Craig Carton continually lowered the listing price of his sprawling Chester mansion over the last year. As the price dropped, Carton was embroiled in a legal battle that eventually led him to be convicted on multiple fraud charges last month for his role in a Ponzi scheme-like ticket brokering scam. He faces up to 45 years in prison.”

“The 9,345-square-foot ‘global luxury custom colonial’ is now set to sell for under $1 million, according to its Zillow listing, less than half of what it was initially listed for. Before finding a buyer, Carton dropped the listing price four times. It was last listed for $1.9 million before the Zillow listing noted the home had a pending offer.”

“The home, which Carton purchased with his wife, Kim, in 2015 for $2.1 million, according to property records, has six bedrooms, nine bathrooms and is located on more than four acres of private property.”

This Post Has 45 Comments
  1. ‘NMLS predicted less of a free-fall in home prices, and more of a balancing of rates’

    Less of a free fall than currently free falling?

    1. “‘We will experience a strong/surge housing market in the spring, which will taper off to a strong market for the remainder of 2019,’ said J. Lennox Scott, John L. Scott Real Estate CEO, in the report. This aligns with falling home prices in late-2018 across the Seattle area.”

      LMFAO. This guy must have studied under Baghdad Bob.

      1. His cult member agents are all over the Inland Northwest in Spokane and Coeur D’Alene. J Lennox told them the market will be ‘strong’ followed by more ‘strong’ and that is the Kool-aid they’re selling at their open houses right now.

    1. Gold, after dropping $9.20 yesterday in a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed’s “hawkishness,” popped by $17.30 today (1.39%). While it seems counterintuitive that gold would pop on hawkishness that SHOULD bolster the dollar, in fact the dollar weakened. Hmm. As stocks tank and the dollar sinks, has the flight to quality (and dash from trash) begun in earnest?

      1. Like I posted in another thread yesterday, a 25bp hike yesterday and 3 hikes in 2019 was BAKED IN to expectations. Then we were told that there may only be 2 hikes next year. That is (relatively) dovish. Hence gold goes up. QED

  2. “In recent weeks, Jill Schafer, DMAR Market Trends committee chair, has even seen sellers taking contingency contracts. ‘Anecdotally, I would say that buyers are less panicked,’ she says. ‘Some of the crazy stuff we’ve seen is calming down. Sellers are still getting good prices, but buyers aren’t feeling like they have to put all their chips on the table.’”

    Im sure everyone put 20% down and no one overpaid in this environment 🙂

  3. What do you call all of the real estate bears once it is common knowledge that the Bubble is imploding and prices plunging back to earth, realists?

    Are you still a ‘bear’ or a ‘negative person’ at that point?

    1. What do you call all of the real estate bears once it is common knowledge that the Bubble is imploding and prices plunging back to earth, realists?

      I don’t know. But I know that even when they’re proven right nobody wants to hear what they have to say.

    1. Realtor found dead from overdose on methafedameans in his client home. Authorities state realtor has been running methlab in his clients garage and living in his “open house”. Survey shows 97.2% of realtors are now homeless and living in their clients homes posing as 24/7 open house

    2. Wildlife biologists say local carp, pigeon and squirrel populations are under threat from Realtor predations as Federal Reserve raises Fed funds target range 25 basis points.

  4. ‘Anecdotally, I would say that buyers are less panicked,’ she says.

    Anecdotally, Jill, I would say the only panic I’m seeing is coming from sellers and realtors. Now that your days of using FOMO to convince the gullible and stupid to sign on the dotted line for an overpriced shacks are a fading memory, you’d better make the switch pronto into panicking underwater FBs into making the deep discounts needed to lure in buyers from the sidelines. Otherwise you’d better start mapping out the food banks and dollar stores in your zip code since you’ll be a regular visitor.

    1. Local Association of Realtors holds seminar on harvesting and preparing koi from decorative ponds in upscale subdivisions as existing home sales tank 7% YOY in November.

        1. “We’re in a house of cards that the Fed built.”

          Heck we all know that. We should be chief executives of Blah Blah Capital too.

    1. Where’s everybody moving?

      I don’t know but doesn’t everybody have to live somewhere? They’ll just fill another house somewhere else and there will still be a shortage…right? Right?

      1. ” They’ll just fill another hou$e somewhere … ”

        So here is how some sages see it:

        “cut holes into an empty box, is it knot the empty $pace within that make$ it u$efull”

  5. Let me see….. Denver area inventory is way up and sales have decresed, but their rep anticipates that prices will continue to climb since YOY is up slightly.

    Boy that’s the last lifeline left for thir happy talk. Wonder what the month over month figures are? The YOY trick is going to backfire bad once we’re are 1 year beyond peak prices. Then they will relentlessly quoting MOM since it willclook less severe.

    The BS with these folks never ends.

    1. Whince eye was a youngster, eye’d jump feet first off the high dive, fun, then, being bold, eye tried diving head first. Well, that was exciting, then x1 day, my entrance head first was a a$kew $lightly, felt like eye’d hit concrete ( the water) … Don’t know how much salt was in the water, but it sure hurt!I

      Ah, the le$$ons of youth!

  6. “A seasonal slowdown is typical, Schafer says, but in terms of prices, ‘we’re still higher year over year.’ ‘I expect to see prices continue to go up,’ Schafer says, ‘just not crazy double digits. I think we’ll be in a healthier 6 to 8 percent range.’”

    Do you like the taste of ramen? Not the $8 a bowl of ramen at that new ramen place you heard about on Yelp.

    $0.25 a packet ramen. Realtors, are you driving for Uber or Lyft yet?

    1. just not crazy double digits

      So it admits that double digits was crazy. Before things “go back to normal” that crazy must be UNDONE. This means double-digit DECLINES until we reach 3x median income and THEN it can go up “6-8%” per year. Whatever. I thought inflation was only 2% and that house prices historically only track inflation.

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