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The Market’s Sugar High Is Over

A report from USA Today. “Membership in the National Association of Realtors grew from 1.48 million at the end of 2020 to 1.56 million at the end of 2021. Kalyani Dere, a former data analytics professional, entered the field of real estate in 2021. ‘I knew people were relocating to this area during the pandemic,’ says Dere, who works out of Glen Allen, Virginia. ‘And I wanted to catch that wave and make some money.'”

The Idaho Statesman. “Boise real estate agent Kerri O’Hara calls it the fluff on top of housing prices. There was a lot of that floating around when prices in the Boise market boomed throughout the past two years. But that fluff, or juice or froth, as O’Hara puts it, is the first to disappear once the market starts to correct itself. That’s what’s happening now, as prices dropped from May to June, according to the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service. While O’Hara said she thinks fear is driving some of the price drops, she also called it healthy.”

“‘The numbers don’t lie,’ said O’Hara. ‘Instead of having a gradual shift, it seems to have [been] a more dramatic shift. Maybe a month ago was when we started to see it where all of a sudden the demand had dropped off. And just like we saw in July of 2020, when it was like the water turned on, we’ve seen the opposite.'”

“At the end of June, there were 2,135 homes for sale. That’s a 192.9% increase from June 2021 and the highest inventory since September 2016. ‘Buyers know for the first time in a very long time that they have more power,’ O’Hara said. ‘A year ago, you literally had to give a firstborn and a kidney with your offer in order to get something accepted,’ O’Hara. ‘… That seems so jarring, almost 200% increase [in inventory]. Yeah, but 200% from zero. Practically nothing.'”

“‘(Buyers) are not going to pay outrageous prices,’ O’Hara said. ‘The outrageous prices came because of the outrageous demand — that’s over. I think now we return to more of a stable market.'”

From CNBC. “After staggering growth during the pandemic, the U.S. housing market is starting to cool fastest in cities along the West Coast, according to Redfin. The quickest-cooling real estate market is San Jose, California. Six of the top 10 markets are in California, including three in the Bay Area, with four other Western cities rounding out the list. ‘The good news is that these buyers most likely got locked into a lower interest rate, so the payments should be more manageable than someone buying now,’ said Matthew Chancey, a certified financial planner with CoastalOne in Tampa, Florida.”

“If you overbid on the property, you may be ‘underwater’ in the short term, meaning you owe more on the mortgage than the home is worth, he said.”

The South Florida Business Journal. “Billionaire James G. Dinan sold a Miami Beach condo for $18.7 million. He took a loss on the deal. Dinan sold the 4,381-square-foot Unit 14-A in Faena House at 3315 Collins Ave. to the AJT Residence Trust. The price equated to $4,268 a square foot. The condo last traded for $20 million in 2015, so it sold at a loss. While most luxury condos in Miami-Dade County have gained in value recently, luxury condos are a highly speculative investment wherein their value depends not on how much wealthy buyers can afford, but on supply and demand.”

The Silicon Valley Business Journal in California. “While San Jose home values increased 17.8% from May 2021 to an average of $1.56 million this in May, homebuying demand is dropping off. One factor affecting this trend has been a weakened Wall Street since tech employees often have stock equity as part of their compensation packages, the report said. That, combined with an inflated cost of living, makes prospective home-buyers concerned about their budgets and leery of buying a home right now.”

“‘Would-be buyers are shying away because they simply have less money, both for down payments and monthly payments,’ San Francisco Redfin agent Joanna Rose said in the report. In February, the available housing supply was down 43% compared to 2021. As of May, supply was 10% above 2021 levels, a sign that the supply-demand pendulum quickly swung in the opposite direction.”

“Additionally, homes are now taking longer to sell and at a lower price, according to the report. Sacramento and Oakland’s cooling housing markets closely followed San Jose’s at #2 and #3 on the list, respectively. San Francisco, with homes averaging $1.62 million, ranked at #10 on the list.”

The Dallas Morning News. “The North Texas housing market continued to cool down in June from the red-hot environment seen earlier this year. In June, 9,133 preowned single-family homes sold in Dallas-Fort Worth — down 8% from June 2021, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems. Active home listings in D-FW were up 60% in June, according to Texas A&M data.  Collin County home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes and condos, decreased the most of the major North Texas counties, according to the MetroTex Association of Realtors.”

The Real Deal. “It was fun while it lasted. Contract activity slowed across New York’s new developments in June, according to a Marketproof. In all, buyers signed 264 contracts, a 26 percent drop from May’s 359 deals. While the numbers show that the market’s sugar high is over — a combination of higher mortgage rates and the end of the spring selling season — some see it as a return to pre-pandemic normalcy.”

“‘Some analysts are sounding the alarm for a correction, but with overall pricing still above 2019 levels, it’s too soon to call this a downturn,’ said Kael Goodman, CEO of Marketproof. Brooklyn had a rougher go of things. Contract activity in the borough slipped below 2019 levels as it recorded its worst month of the year. New developments posted 90 sponsor contracts, a 16 percent decline from June 2019.”

“‘A lot of things are changing right now — we’re in the middle of it,’ Goodman said. ‘Where things land is still unclear.'”

From Forbes. “In a regulatory filing, California-based loanDepot said it has cut about 2,800 jobs this year and expects to cut about 2,000 more by year’s end, as part of a plan to ‘aggressively’ cut costs by about $400 million on an annualized basis; the company currently employs about 8,500 people. ‘After two years of record-breaking volumes, the market has contracted sharply and abruptly in 2022,’ CEO Frank Martell said in a statement. LoanDepot is far from alone in laying off employees: Wells Fargo and JPMorgan have announced rounds of layoffs, cutting thousands of jobs in their home-lending departments, and last month, real estate firms Compass and Redfin cut about 450 jobs each.”

“Mortgage originations jumped from $2.3 trillion in 2019 to more than $4 trillion in 2020 and 2021, but demand has since plummeted to the lowest level in more than two decades.”

From CTV News in Canada. “The rising interest rate is believed to be one factor leading to the housing market cooling in Simcoe County after record-breaking years during the pandemic. Houses in Simcoe County were selling on average for one million dollars at the market’s peak in late 2021 and early 2022 but have since dropped in price. According to the Barrie and District Association of Realtors (BDAR), although prices have dropped around 20 per cent since the peak. ‘You don’t sell a house in 30 seconds. There aren’t 17 people waving their cheque books at you. This is normal stuff,’ said Lance Chilton of Remax Hallmark Chilton Reality.”

Canadian Mortgage Trends. “Last month, Magenta Capital Corp. announced it would temporarily stop taking new loan applications until September. And last week, the Globe and Mail reported that Fisgard Asset Management Corp. was no longer offering new construction financing in select provinces. Both are Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs), which fall in the alternative lender space and thus have different underwriting and funding processes compared to chartered banks and other ‘A’ lenders.”

“Of course, changing market conditions also played a role in that decision, especially when construction costs have increased and values are declining, said Hali Noble, Fisgard’s senior VP of residential mortgage investments and broker relations. ‘Part of the underwriting process is obtaining a current market value of the ‘as complete’ home. Our appraisers provide us with a value based on what they think it’s going to be worth in today’s market,’ she explained. ‘But of course, 9 to 12 months from now when construction is complete, the value could be quite different, possibly lower than expected.'”

From Bisnow Birmingham. “One of the UK’s highest-profile modular housebuilders suffered a death spiral caused by poor quality work at its Midlands factory. The collapse highlights why the modular sector is not expanding as fast as some had predicted. It also leaves half-built schemes scattered around England.”

From Stockhead. “Across Australia home auction activity has stalled again just days after the central bank lifted the cost of borrowing at a third straight meeting. According to Domain, the early data suggests national auctions activity is more than one fifth quieter than the more than 2,100 auctions held this time last year. The numbers out of Domain suggest Sydney’s auction clearance rate has dropped to its lowest level in years, with almost one in two homes failing to find a buyer.”

“The property platform’s auction clearance rate dropped to 52.1% in June. They now say one in four sellers chose to scrap or postpone their scheduled auction. There was also a fair bit of consternation on social media at the data property firm’s calculations regrading the sudden sharp falls in Sunday’s CoreLogic daily house price series.The number of distressed listings across Australia also grew in June according to SQM Research’s Louis Christopher, with the trend likely to continue winding it’s way back to pre-pandemic levels sooner than later.”

“SQM’s latest work on June distressed listings has uncovered an almost 5% rise month-on-month. There were some 6,014 fast-track sales – a number SQM Research director Louis Christoper notes is  more or less consistent nationwide. The strongest distressed listings out of NSW (over 10%) and in Victoria (6.2%).”

The Sydney Morning Herald. “Chinese authorities will start repaying most of the victims in the nation’s biggest bank scam after hundreds of angry customers took to the streets to ratchet up pressure on the government. Hundreds of bank customers protested on Sunday after similar demonstrations broke out in May and again in late June in Zhengzhou, a city of some 10 million people, calling on the authorities to return tens of billions of yuan of deposits in a suspected financial scam. That has prompted the banking watchdog to speed up drafting a plan to resolve risks even as a police investigation is still ongoing.”

“An official probe into the case had found that Henan Xincaifu Group Investment Holding Co, a private investment firm with stakes in the five lenders, colluded with bank employees to take deposits and marketed financial products via other online platforms and then transferred money by fabricating lending agreements. Accounts at the banks were frozen as part of the investigation, and depositors have been unable to access their savings.”

“‘The latest move shows the local government is trying to maintain social stability by advancing a small amount of payments out of their pockets,’ said Liao Zhiming, the chief bank analyst at China Merchant Securities. He expected future large-sum payments to some customers won’t be made in full because the funds aren’t considered as deposits and won’t be protected by the nation’s deposit insurance scheme.”

“Smaller banks, faced with rising nonperforming loans after years of explosive growth and poor internal controls, are seen as particularly vulnerable. China has nearly 4000 small and medium-sized lenders that collectively control almost $US14 trillion ($20 trillion) in assets. But confidence in the these banks has waned since 2019, when the government seized a lender for the first time since 1998 and imposed losses on some creditors.”

From Reuters. “A growing number of homebuyer groups across China wrote to local regulators and banks that they will stop repaying mortgages as a protest against unfinished developments, local media reported. According to real estate news outlet Leju, as of Tuesday afternoon (Jul 12) such letters have been issued for at least 14 developments involving 46,000 homebuyers and 35 billion yuan (US$5.21 billion) worth of properties.”

“The homebuyers, who bought the properties in pre-sales many years ago, were not able to take them over many months after the scheduled dates as the developers failed to make progress or complete the construction. Many of these developments are in lower-tier cities and owned by distressed developers including China Evergrande, China Aoyuan, Sinic and Shimao. In the letters posted online, the homebuyer groups blamed local commercial banks for improperly granting mortgage loans to developers and insufficient oversight of the escrow accounts, resulting in misuse of funds and construction suspension by developers.”

“The letters added the homebuyers will cease mortgage payments unless developers and commercial banks take action to resume construction. The news deepened worries over the debt crisis in the sector, further dragging down the property shares listed in Hong Kong on Wednesday. Country Garden and CIFI closed down over 8 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively.”

From The Street. “It’s not a matter of ‘if’ but a matter of ‘when’ the housing will lose its luster, and residential real estate prices will decline. In fact, evidence is emerging that the downward trend has already started. ‘In the US, mortgage applications have fallen by 28% from their peak, new home sales are down by 17% and housing starts have dropped by 13%,’ said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics in a new research note. ‘A similar story is playing out in the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden.'”

“The fall is inevitable and the primary question now is how low prices will go for the real estate market. ‘Central bankers giveth and central bankers taketh away,’ Shearing said. ‘It was their low-interest rate policies which helped fuel an extraordinary – and extraordinarily global – rise in house prices. As a generational rise in inflation brings that low-rate era to a rapid close, our earlier warning that housing markets would prove most vulnerable to policy tightening is becoming a reality.'”

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This Post Has 148 Comments

  1. From the first 19 minute video:

    Higher Interest Rates Force Toronto Pre-Construction Investors to Sell At a LOSS
    Jul 12, 2022

    The second 18 minute video:

    Can Toronto Real Estate Get Much Worse?
    Jul 12, 2022

    1. Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as price pressures intensify:

      “Shoppers paid sharply higher prices for a variety of goods in June as inflation kept its hold on a slowing U.S. economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

      The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked another month of the fastest pace for inflation going back to December 1981.”

      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/inflation-rose-9point1percent-in-june-even-more-than-expected-as-price-pressures-intensify.html

      “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

        1. There you go, construct a Drive-Thru Index.

          Assuming frivolous spending is reflected in the drive-thru lane at Starbucks and such places one can construct how the economic slow-down is affecting frivolous spending by measuring the change in the lengths of the drive-thru lines.

          1. “…construct a Drive-Thru Index…”

            Inversely, longer lines of FB’s on their kneepads queuing up to Mr. Bankers desk.

            Drive-Thru Index: DOWN
            Mr. Banker Kneepad index: UP (way up)

        2. Not saying you are not correct but up here in Westminster local I’m seeing plenty of drive thru poison meals heading home to unsuspecting childrens every day during my commute home up wadsworth.

      2. Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected, as price pressures intensify:

        And yet the main headline I saw is how Pedo Joe is calling the number “out of date” and celebrating lower gas prices. I have seen ZERO drop at the pump. FJB.

        1. All I’ve seen is a 10 cent drop. Not much, but better than another 10 cent increase.

          1. yep, same here. about 10 to 12c. Which means precisely dick when it’s still near $5/gallon.

        2. Around here prices dropped from $4.99 to about $4.79. Of course there are major gouger prices in expensive neighborhoods.

          So what prices do you guys consider a “good” price, realistically? Maybe around $3.29? I know that sounds high, but paychecks have really gone up in the past 10 years.

      2. Hard to get thru that video but its possible.

        New menu items coming soon to your favorite drive-thru.

      3. Only the bravest will eat bugs in bug form. More likely they’ll make cricket powder/flour and add it to lentils or something.

        1. More likely they’ll “make” cows and chickens. The Progressive dream isn’t going to work.

        2. More likely they’ll make cricket powder/flour and add it to lentils or something

          I think eating the globalists will taste better. Why not?

  3. ‘(Buyers) are not going to pay outrageous prices…The outrageous prices came because of the outrageous demand — that’s over’

    Sound lending!

    ‘prices have dropped around 20 per cent since the peak. ‘You don’t sell a house in 30 seconds. There aren’t 17 people waving their cheque books at you. This is normal stuff’

    Sounder lending!

  4. ‘The condo last traded for $20 million in 2015, so it sold at a loss’

    2015 was the peak in Miami Beach.

    1. “2015 was the peak in Miami Beach.”

      Miami, that’s where the beautiful blossoms are.

      The bogidas are in the Bronx and the breakfast tacos live in San Antonio.

  5. ‘If you overbid on the property, you may be ‘underwater’ in the short term’

    Look at the bright side: UHS says you can date the rate.

    1. you may be ‘underwater’ in the short term’
      My guess for “short term” is about 15 years.
      If I recall correctly, Houston home prices stayed underwater more than 15 years after the oil industry crashed in the early/mid 1980’s.

    1. All of the people who threatened to get you fired from your job for not getting injected with an experimental mRNA gene therapy poison have names and addresses.

      Nuremburg Trials v2.0

      1. New Swedish study that came out a couple days ago proves Covid vaccines alter DNA. . All this time the CDC and other fraudsters have insisted the vaccines don’t alter the DNA. They lied.
        This news will be censored no doubt , so people won’t be vaccine hesitant.

        1. This news will be censored no doubt , so people won’t be vaccine hesitant.

          I’m sure there will be a stampede for the next booster.

        2. Swedish study

          It published 2/25/2022. I threw it in my GP’s face when we had the discussion there was no way in hell my family was going to be jabbed. It seems to have gained traction in recent days with video clips circulating of Dr. Peter McCullough talking about it.

          1. I threw it in my GP’s face when we had the discussion there was no way in hell my family was going to be jabbed

            What did your GP say? That the Swedish study was flawed?

          2. It caught her by surprise and ended the conversation. I’m sure it’s a conversation she’ll never forget.

    2. The “vaccine” works fine. Kills off lots right off the bat, gives a bunch more heart issues, kills fertility, wipes out pregnancies, destroys your immune system. Working as designed.

      Oh it doesn’t do anything about the cold and sniffles, but it was never supposed to.

      1. Posted previously. I laughed at my surgeon’s Jan. 2021 recommendation to be vaxxed. Last visit one year later, she was distant, curt and had aged tremendously (hadn’t mentioned that last bit.) Prob boosted to the max. Still, I had doubts that someone so accomplished could be so petty.

        Met woman here in LV through a “let’s swap stories about our ailment” group 🙄 Over lunch we found we had the same surgeon, and that she also got dumped when she disagreed with her about the vax. Nice to know it wasn’t my imagination, was doubting myself since I have known the dr since 2010.

        In Austria they’re pinning blame on the doctors; they’re not having it. I hope the circular firing squad expands and intensifies.

    3. FYI, FDA just authorized the Novavax vaccine for 18+. I don’t know anything about it, except that it’s a protein-based vaccine, not mRNA.

      1. Don’t care. I’ve taken my last shot of anything. ever. My trust in doctors/medical industry is less than zero.

        2. Me three! The pharma vexxine racket has totally exposed their entire decade’s long racket. If you think the WuFlu vexxine is the first injectable immunity-boosting product with adverse side effects, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
          My eyes are now wide open to this scam.
          The pharmacriminals have revealed themselves.
          –Geezer

          1. Me four! And, I refuse to work for such a despicable industry. I’m not in debt up to my eyeballs. I don’t need to.

        3. I get it, but I work in a job where the boss can tell us to “vax or walk,” and I can’t afford to walk. Looks like they will never allow a third J&J, or even authorize any J&J Omicron-specific booster, so Novavax might be an option in the future. Anything other than mRNA.

          1. Gotta love living in a tyranny where you can be forced to receive an experimental “vaccine”, or you become an unperson.

          5. J&J’s DNA vax doesn’t show any heart issues. The chance of a blood clot issue is 1/300,000, which can be nearly eliminated by aspirating the needle. The efficacy of a two-dose regimen is as good as mRNA and it doesn’t fade.

      2. FDA just authorized the Novavax vaccine

        Isn’t that the one with the nano particles? Sounds safe to me. /sarc

  7. Per our fabricated, Soviet-style inflation data: Focusing on the roof over your head factor, shelter inflation +5.61%, up from 5.61%, highest since 1992, and rent inflation +5.78%, up from 5.22%, highest since 1986.

    Uh, real-world rent prices are up more than 17% year-over-year. The CPI inflation data is as fake as Biden’s 81 million votes. Real inflation, as measured the same way it was before they switched to the dishonest “hedonic” methodology in 1980, is running at least twice as hot as the CPI numbers say it is.

  9. “At the end of June, there were 2,135 homes for sale…the highest inventory since September 2016…That seems so jarring, almost 200% increase [in inventory]. Yeah, but 200% from zero. Practically nothing.”

    Highest inventory since 9/16 is “practically nothing”. What won’t relitters lie about?

  11. Follow up to my question yesterday:

    Do you believe the Federal Reserve will actually increase and maintain higher interest rates and quantitatively tighten, even with all the stresses we are seeing in the RE market, and even if real estate pulls back substantially?

    I feel like with what we saw 13 years ago, this is an expectation that would seem to be misguided, but I’m wondering what you think.

    2. Yes, they will, because a total collapse of the currency means the end of the FED. They will protect the dollar at almost any cost, speculators be damned. The people talking about a FED pivot are wishful thinking reckless gamblers.

      1. The next rate increase (due this month) will be telling. Rates need to rise, and fast. Last month’s bump did nothing to slow inflation.

        1. Almost every article that comes out about inflation now is blaming the FED for doing too little, too late. Everybody is criticizing them, except CONgress. Behind closed doors, I’d bet the FED is unhappy about being at the end of such criticism, especially from a lot of the billionaire speculators who they enriched.

          I would say I’m surprised the FED hasn’t either a) had an emergency rate hike or b) surprised the market with a “larger than expected” hike, but then it’s Jerome Yellow Bowel at the helm. What’s needed right now is some FED “shock and awe.” They need to send speculators reeling, and lock up the brakes on this economy.

        2. Rising rates drive a drop the market, which isn’t a big deal. But a dropping market drives job losses, and that’s a very big deal in an election year.

      2. agreed. Governments and societies can survive a depression and austerity, what they don’t survive is massive inflation. IF the FED folds and cuts for the sake of the stock market casino, well then it’s all over, cuz inflation is kicking the little guy’s tail. And after a while they are going to think there’s not much reason to participate in the system. That usually ends with heads on pikes. I doubt the powers that be want to be those heads.

  13. A reader sent these in:

    Home values are starting to retreat MoM in California cities, Seattle and Austin, Texas, chipping away at the idea that low inventory would buoy markets despite rising mortgage rates

    https://twitter.com/JonathanJLevin/status/1546933164446257154

    The NAB says house prices are now falling ‘pretty aggressively’

    https://twitter.com/DaveTaylorNews/status/1546761789588660224

    Donna Bacher, Broker

    The Canadian real estate market should never have been allowed to inflate by 60% over the past 2 years.
    The BoC, GoC & OSFI knew this was happening and did absolutely nothing.

    https://twitter.com/loveurhome/status/1546588926583967746

    Kyle Bass

    Bank runs are happening all over China. It’s important to note that the Chinese banking system represents 350% of Chinese GDP (on balance sheet) while the U.S. system is only 100%. One of the largest lending categories of Chinese banks is real estate…

    https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1546501017105305601

  14. Despite massive jawboning and initial punchbowl removal operations, does it seem like inflation remains out of the Fed’s control?

    1. The Financial Times
      US Inflation
      US inflation hits 9.1% in June putting further pressure on the Fed
      Petrol prices led a broad-based increase in CPI
      A vehicle refuels at a Chevron gas station in San Francisco, California
      Annual consumer prices climbed at the fastest pace since November 1981
      Colby Smith in Washington
      3 hours ago

      US consumer prices rose more than forecast in June, hitting an annual pace of 9.1 per cent, a fresh 40-year high that cements expectations of another historically large 0.75 percentage point Federal Reserve interest rate rise this month.

      The consumer price index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday further accelerated last month, above economists’ estimates for an 8.8 per cent increase. It marked the fastest year-over-year increase since November 1981.

      Prices jumped another 1.3 per cent month on month in June, following a 1 per cent rise in May.
      …

      1. At an annualized rate, a one month price increase of 1.3 percent is
        1.013^12-1 = 16.8%.

        By the “rule of 72”, at an annual inflation rate of 16.8%, the dollar loses half of its real value in 72/16.8 = 4.3 years.

        1. the “rule of 72”

          Don’t worry. Banker’s maths do not consider a credit contraction.

      2. The FED needs to raise by a full 100 basis points every meeting until it comes down, minimum.

    3. The Financial Times
      Opinion Markets Insight
      US inflation surge signals tough times ahead
      The damage from the sharp rise in prices has already been unleashed
      Mohamed El-Erian
      Vehicles drive past the Federal Reserve building in Washington
      The Federal Reserve is sure to increase interest rates by 0.75 percentage points later this month and could consider a 1 percentage point rise
      Mohamed El-Erian 11 hours ago
      The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy

      June’s awful US inflation numbers are a reminder of tough days ahead for many in America and around the world, and especially the most vulnerable segments of the population and the most fragile developing countries.

      This is not because inflation will record yet another four-decade high over the next three months. It won’t. Rather, it is because of the damage already unleashed and that which is to come.

      At 9.1 per cent for June, the headline number for US CPI inflation came in well above the median forecast of 8.8 per cent, registering its highest level since 1981. The core measure was also higher than expected and the compositional details added to concerns.

      This level of inflation will come as a shock to many, especially those who have been falsely comforted by a US Federal Reserve narrative that, from day one of this inflation episode, has failed to understand the dynamics in play, grasp the seriousness of what’s ahead, and act promptly and decisively to avoid undue harm to so many.

      The stunning number, which will be splashed across the front pages of newspapers and dominate news shows and websites, will further erode the already-damaged policy credibility of the Fed and undermine the effectiveness of its all-important forward guidance tool.

      And this is a Fed that, unlike the European Central Bank, is yet to explain why it has forecast inflation so wrong for so long; and unlike the Bank of England, is yet to play the technocratic role of an honest adviser on what is going on in the economy and why.

      The Fed now has no choice but to respond aggressively. It is sure to increase interest rates by 0.75 percentage points later this month and could well consider a 1 percentage point rise.

      Such a belated policy reaction will increase the risk of a recession, especially given that economic activity is slowing. This adds the curse of income insecurity to the serious erosion in purchasing power caused by inflation — phenomena that hits the low income earners particularly hard.
      …

  15. Are Home Prices Falling?
    Jul 12, 2022 If you have kept current with the news then you know that we are currently in the middle of a big SHIFT in the housing market.

    In May & in June when the FED raised the interest rates at such a steep increase, mortgage rates reacted by increasing by over 2% in a 2-month period. That increase has certainly impacted home buyers’ ability to afford a home.

    And how has this affected prices here in the Portland area? Year-to-date home prices have already risen over 11%. However, we are seeing a quick change in the market that is instantly affecting demand, which in turn affects pricing, days on market, and price appreciation. Market stats have shown that nearly 43% of homes on the market have had a price drop in Portland OR.

    The housing market is slowing and we should expect to see some price correction through the rest of the year. In the short term, this may mean some price drops for homeowners who are still wanting to price their homes at the top of the market.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c60-3CQZ_3c

    4 minutes.

    1. “…that we are currently in the middle of a big SHIFT in the housing market.”

      It’s definitely an OH SHIFT! moment for housing.

    2. The grandma-finally-died (GFD) flip-reno on my block is still for sale, not pending.

      There’s another house nearby that needs ~$50K of work and it’s pending at $70K less than than the GFD house. So I think that the GFD house needs another $10K or so but then I think it will sell. Likely not much profit for the guy in the sexi-truk.

      1. Maybe the guy will stay above the market all the way down to 75% off and still not sell?

        1. If he does, then he’ll go pretty deep into the hole. This flipper definitely got caught in the frenzy. He had to buy it during the frenzy almost exactly a year ago, paying $20K over list. Then he spent 9 months fixing it up himself, with occasional “guest” help. While he was installing roofing and sump pumps, the market went to heck around him.

          It’s ironic that this reno-flipper thought to save money by doing his own labor. But if he had paid a contractor to swarm the place and get it ready in 6-8 weeks, he would probably have sold it by now, more than making up for what he would have paid in labor.

  16. Albuquerque’s Real Estate Market is Shifting Quickly
    Jul 12, 2022 Albuquerque’s Real Estate Market is Shifting Quickly

    Transcript Snippet: “Tracy: Our market can shift quickly and, you know, we’ve had that conversation and
    Tego:
    It feels like it has shifted quickly,
    Tracy:
    Right. It, I agree. That’s where I was going. So you think about last fall, September, October, November, it was not hot as hot as this February, March, April were. Right. Right. We felt a huge change after the first of the year in the frenzy of housing. Right. And people wanting to get a house or getting it sold for top dollar. We were getting a lot of offers. But last October, it wasn’t like that. I know I helped some people buy a house last October and we were able to negotiate. We were able to, you know, have the seller take care of what historically have been typical seller paid items. Right. We were able to do a repair request. We were able to, you know, have interesting, have the opportunity to write a buyer’s offer that wasn’t all trying to give the seller everything. Right. And then it shifted. And that house, those clients bought in October come March probably was worth a hundred thousand more based on how the market was. And now we’re feeling it kind of level out, I would say.
    Tego:
    Yeah. And I’ve heard a few stories and in, in these type of stories that are anecdotal or just that they’re anecdotal, they’re not data, but it’s, you know, where, where a home was under contract at a certain price, you know, a couple months ago deal fell through, went back on market and now, you know, they, they couldn’t, they couldn’t get that same price that they had it under contract for earlier. Now the
    Tracy:
    Momentum is shifted.
    Tego:
    Now the there’s usually obviously more to that story. Usually that means when during due diligence something came up like in, in inspections, it maybe there was some, some challenges and suddenly the home, you know, whoever was buying, it realized no, the value wasn’t there. So just cuz it was under contract at a certain price doesn’t mean that price made sense. There was a reason that person backed out of that deal. But there, there could be a lot, not there there’s a lot of reason,
    Tracy:
    A lot of what I’ve seen is financing changes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9UceZhAVSA

    8 minutes.

    1. always amusing to observe realtors/politicians/clergy, anyone who yaks for a living, tap-dance their way around bad news.

      “umm, well, historically, err, year-over-year, the charts show that yadda yadda bladda bladda . . .
      so in conclusion never better time to buy/vote/come to jesus.” aye carumba !!

  17. Sellers, The Market Is Shifting
    Premiered 15 minutes ago SELLERS: with the real estate market in Spokane shifting, what do you need to know when listing your home?!

    In the last couple of months, interest rates have risen and in turn, there are fewer buyers in the market for a home. This means that the days of 20+ offers and $50,000 over the asking price are behind us for now!
    When listing your home, you need to put in the extra effort to make it stand out and shine on the market the first time!

    Try to look at your home and property from a buyer’s perspective:
    • Consider replacing worn-out carpet
    • Touch up your paint
    • Focus on curb appeal and tidy up the landscaping
    • Depersonalize and declutter your space

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xwni881RWAE

    40 seconds.

    1. “This means that the days of 20+ offers and $50,000 over the asking price are behind us for now!”

      They still openly confess appraisal fraud so cavalierely.

    2. The GFD house on my block has three little petunia flowers in front. It’s not working. Perhaps they should plant a statue of St. Joseph?

      3. Probably best to head down to Home Depot and get 5 gallons of paint, a space heater and the thinnest gauge extension cord possible. Paint the bathroom, set up the space heater inside with the long, undersized extension cord “to speed up the drying process” (wink, wink), lock the front door and drive home. Read about the inferno the next morning on the news and collect the insurance money.

  18. Red Hot Housing Market May Be Cooling As More Homebuyers Back Out Of Deals
    Jul 12, 2022 More homebuyers are backing out of deals, showing potential signs that the red hot housing market is cooling. Nationwide, about 60,000 agreements fell through in June, according to real estate firm Redfin. Las Vegas, New Orleans and many areas in Florida are among the most affected.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3erkrFm8jh4

    1:50.

    1. and many areas in Florida are among the most affected.
      Jacksonville is mentioned and I think this explains the sudden interest in me by the local J-ville UHS.

  19. Housing Market Conditions – Living in Austin Texas
    Jul 13, 2022

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnP_rpDIbhI

    13:33. Investors need to sell cuz property taxes. 6:20 – new builds “speculated quite a bit”. I’ve posted this lady’s videos before. 7:40 iBuyers shacks sitting on the market “not priced well”. Loans falling apart.

      1. She makes the point that homeowners have a homestead exemption “cap” . It can only go up so much per year. But institutional buyers/owners tax rises are unlimited and after the last years of price rises they are WAY up.

  20. ** “Boise real estate agent Kerri O’Hara calls it the fluff on top of housing prices. There was a lot of that floating around . . . first to disappear once the market starts to correct itself.”

    an Orange Julius index. lots o’ frothy fluff

  23. #ClownWorld

    “Far-left Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) took to Twitter to thank Berkeley School of Law professor Khiara Bridges “for [her] service” after Bridges told Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) that men can get pregnant, and that by questioning that he was opening “up trans people to violence by not recognizing them.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/07/13/aoc-fauns-professor-who-says-men-can-get-pregnant/

    And yes, when you buy a house, your property taxes are paying for this in the public schools.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. If my doctor tries to convince me again to get jabbed, I’m going to ask him if men can get pregnant and give birth. He works for a big heath care organization, so I expect he has also been told how to respond to that question, and will be fired if he doesn’t give the authorized answer.

      1. When he tries to tell you that, yes, men can get pregnant and give birth, tell him “you’re fired, clown boy,” and walk out. And don’t pay him a dime.

    2. “…Bridges told Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) that men can get pregnant, …”

      Are there any actual physical examples of men who got pregnant, aside from within the fictional storyline of the movie Junior? Or is this based on redefining ‘men’ to include females who self-identify as men?

      If I believe I am a horse, does that make me a horse?

      Junior 1994 Trailer | Arnold Schwarzenegger | Danny DeVito
      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qDxdu_qXPOs

    3. If “not recognizing” someone opened them up to violence, the Amish would have self-destructed decades ago.

  24. In today’s episode of “How the Clown Turns” … now this is virtue signaling.

    Why Men as Young as 23 Are Choosing Vasectomies in Post-Roe America

    (Bloomberg) — Connor Speed never imagined he would be asking for a vasectomy at the age of 23, but after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, he decided to take the plunge.

    He’s frustrated by what he sees as a loss of rights for the women in his life; he also wants to avoid unwanted pregnancies.

    “Unfortunately my fiancee and my daughter now don’t have the right to choose what they want to do with their body, and I do, so I made this choice,” said Speed, who scheduled the procedure in his home state of Missouri five days after the ruling. By the time he undergoes the planned procedure in October, he’ll have turned 24.

    I’m also gonna go out on a limb and guess that Connor and the little lady live in a blue state where abortion is still perfectly legal.

    1. “…Connor and the little lady live in a blue state…”

      Er, no.

      “…Speed, who scheduled the procedure in his home state of Missouri five days after the ruling…”

      1. I kinda think women can avoid getting a baby if they so choose, the way they did back in my youth. Why do others prefer that they do get a baby, then dispose of it?

    2. I’m also gonna go out on a limb and guess that Connor and the little lady live in a blue state where abortion is still perfectly legal.
      Says he lives in Missouri which is believe will not be legal. With that said, I am almost certain it is legal in Illinois.

    3. Bloomibergi says “home state of Missouri.”

      And I guess vasectomies and abortion are the ONLY options available. 🙄

      “My fiancee and daughter…” *sigh*…

    4. Unfortunately my fiancee and my daughter now don’t have the right to choose what they want to do with their body, and I do

      Uhh…Connor, just as you can sterilize yourself, your wife and daughter could choose to sterilize themselves. You all have the same “rights”.

  25. Garland, TX Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As North Dallas Rot-Riddled Housing Market Slips Deeper Into Default

    https://www.movoto.com/tx/75043/market-trends/

    As a national land broker explained, “There is a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped. If you paid more than $500 an acre, you got ripped off.”

  26. Shock Video: Man Fights Off Armed Robbers Using Gun Ripped From Suspect’s Hands

    By Dan Lyman Wednesday, July 13, 2022

    A pair of armed thieves bit off more than they could chew when they tried to rob a man in Philadelphia this week, according to reports.

    The stunning incident unfolded just before 2 p.m. on Monday in the City of Brotherly Love.

    The victim, a 46-year-old male, was ambushed by a suspect wielding a gun on a sidewalk near the intersection of Cheltenham Avenue and Erdick Street.

    Surveillance footage released by authorities shows the man fighting for his life before turning the tables on his assailants.

    The victim can be seen grappling with the first suspect as they slam into a stop sign and then fall into the street.

    Another suspect can be seen running down the road towards them and presumably pointing a firearm at them.

    Incredibly, the victim manages to wrestle away the first suspect’s gun and apparently shoot the second suspect.

    “Authorities say it appears that the victim struck the second suspect at least one time,” Fox 29 reports.

    “Both suspects then fled in a dark-colored SUV going south on the 5400 hundred block of Edrick Street.”

    The victim was found suffering from gunshot wounds to his backside and ankle. He was taken to hospital in stable condition.

    “While police say it’s never a good idea to fight armed robber, they secretly admit ‘this victim is a genuine badass,’” Fox 29’s Steve Keeley reported following the incident.

    Steve Keeley
    @KeeleyFox29
    ·
    Jul 12, 2022
    WATCH: PHILADELPHIAN FIGHTS BACK. Guy in blue shirt being held up takes gun away from first robber in hooded shirt & 2nd gunman runs out of suv behind stop sign to help. As victim on his back is kicking first robber, he fires on his back at 2nd robber 1/2 ⁦@FOX29philly

    https://twitter.com/KeeleyFox29/status/1546834730984902656?s=20&t=-xxCiOxLZyyzcD_pxhcpOg

      1. Doesn’t more spending generally result in higher prices, especially in a period of constrained supply?

        What am I missing here?

  28. “Imagine how you would feel if your employer cut your pay by $6,800 a year.”

    Inflation Is Making These Items More Expensive; Here’s How Much Prices Have Risen

    Inflation is eroding your purchasing power, to the tune of thousands of dollars a year for many Americans. Here’s exactly how much some common items, and other expenses, have gone up.

    SAMANDA DORGER
    JUL 12, 2022 7:30 AM EDT

    In a way, you have had a pay cut—it’s called inflation, and as of June 10, 2022 you’ve taken an 8.6% hit to your dollars, or spending power. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in May, the Consumer Price Index (a widely watched inflation indicator) rose 8.6% from the previous year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. Prices for food at home rose 11.9% over the year. Food, shelter and gas were the biggest contributors to inflation.

    For a U.S. family earning the national median family income of $79,900, (2021) 8.6% is like an increase of $6,871 in expenses annually.

    https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/inflation-price-increases-44-common-expenses?puc=flipboard2&cm_ven=FLIPBOARD2

  29. It would have shortened that movie by like a lot.

    They would have had to spend a lot more time on leg braces, that horny old school principal and Elvis.

    Don’t run Forrest! Don’t run!

    For Immediate Release

    Monday July 11, 2022, 4:48pm EDT
    RootsAction
    Contact
    Jeff Cohen, jeff@rootsaction.org
    Norman Solomon, norman@rootsaction.org

    PRESS RELEASE

    “Don’t Run Joe” Campaign Will Oppose Renomination of Biden
    WASHINGTON –

    Declaring that “President Biden has been neither bold nor inspiring” and “his prospects for winning re-election appear to be bleak,” the national activist organization RootsAction announced today that it will launch a campaign to prevent his renomination.

    With an email list of 1.2 million current supporters in the United States, RootsAction issued a statement saying it is committed to nationwide organizing to prevent Biden from being the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee for president. This is the first time that a large national organization has announced such plans.

    https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2022/07/11/dont-run-joe-campaign-will-oppose-renomination-biden

    1. Feb 2027 310.0

      If the futures market is predicting a lower price in February 2027 than today, what is the advantage to speculators of HODLing real estate and paying high carrying costs over the next five years? Doubly so in case the future price is stated in nominal terms, i.e. not reflective of the effect of current double digit inflation on the real future value in 2027…

      It seems like now would be a good time for speculators to cut their losses and run away from their real estate HODLings.

    1. She is kinda glum:

      $8,395,000 4 bd 6 ba 4,869 sqft
      Price cut: $400K (7/13)
      1417 N Doheny Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90069

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1417-N-Doheny-Dr-Los-Angeles-CA-90069/20799233_zpid/

      Date Event Price
      7/13/2022 Price change $8,395,000 (-4.5%) $1,724/sqft

      6/21/2022 Price change $8,795,000 (-2.2%) $1,806/sqft

      4/7/2022 Listed for sale $8,995,000 (+67.9%) $1,847/sqft

      6/24/2016 Sold $5,358,000 (+7.3%) $1,100/sqft

      5/29/2015 Sold $4,995,000 (-5.4%) $1,026/sqft

      5/21/2015 Pending sale $5,280,000 $1,084/sqft

      4/2/2015 Price change $5,280,000 (-0.3%)

  34. Irish mothers have some pertinent questions for Ireland’s most corrupt lying scientist, Luke O’Neill

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/pnv3XkASV5oL/

    Fair play to these Irish mothers. Professor Luke O’Neill was meant to arrive for his book launch in Kinsale County Cork, but he obviously got word that he had some visitors, and they weren’t visitors that were there to get a signed book from him. They were there to ask this pathological liar some pertinent questions about vaccines/vaccine safety etc.

    Video clips sourced from a Twitter thread by Fíor Mháire: https://twitter.com/FMhaire

    You can check out the first round of Pfizer vaccine side effects documents (that they were forced by a court order in the USA to release) here: https://phmpt.org/pfizers-documents/

    https://phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/5.3.6-postmarketing-experience.pdf

    VAERS – Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System: https://vaers.hhs.gov/

    UK’s Yellow Card Scheme – Vaccine injury/death reporting system: https://yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/

    8 minutes.

    1. They were there to ask this pathological liar some pertinent questions about vaccines/vaccine safety etc.

      Hopefully pathological liars like this will off themselves in large numbers.

  35. The 10 year-old rape victim that went to Indiana for an abortion who Joe Biden was screaming “TEN YEARS OLD” about having to travel out of state for an abortion yet shows no signs of outrage about the ten year old child being raped by a 27 year old illegal from Guatemala. As it turns out, Ohio law allows rape victims to have an abortion, the ten year old did NOT have to leave the state.

    Just too bad we have open borders and the poor kid had to deal with it in the first place.

    Ohio 10-year-old’s alleged rapist is Guatemalan illegal immigrant: ICE source

    By Adam Shaw , Bill Melugin | Fox News
    Published July 13, 2022 3:08pm EDT

    Gerson Fuentes is accused of raping a 10-year-old Ohio girl, who later got an abortion

    The man charged with the rape of a 10-year-old girl in Ohio is a Guatemalan illegal immigrant, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) source told Fox News Digital on Wednesday.

    The Columbus Dispatch first reported that Gerson Fuentes was arrested after police said he confessed to raping a child on multiple occasions. He has been charged with rape, and the outlet reported that he was possibly in the country illegally.

    The source told Fox that Fuentes is a Guatemalan national in the country illegally and that ICE has placed a detainer on Fuentes, which is a request he eventually be handed over to the agency for removal proceedings.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ohio-10-year-olds-alleged-rapist-guatemalan-illegal-immigrant-ice-source

    1. “Ohio law allows rape victims to have an abortion,”

      I am sorry, after listening to Ohio’s Attorney General, Ohio’s Heartbeat Law has a medical exception and that is why she did not have to leave Ohio for treatment.

    2. Firefly12463
      3 hours ago

      Trump was right AGAIN when he said “they’re not sending their best.”

  36. Home / Today’s Market /
    The Real Housing Market Crash Repeat Is Happening in Crypto
    The housing market might be in rough shape, but crypto is faring far worse
    3h ago · By Brenden Rearick, InvestorPlace Financial News Writer
    Investors are worried that the teetering housing market could turn into a crash of epic proportions.
    However, the crypto crash is showing lots of similarities with the 2008 housing market crash.
    Experts and analysts say that over-leveraging in crypto is the main parallel between the two events.
    housing market crash – The Real Housing Market Crash Repeat Is Happening in Crypto
    Source: Shutterstock

    The investing world is on DEFCON 1 right now. Inflation is plaguing the market, and recession fears become more real with each passing week. Add in foreign policy woes and an energy crisis and there’s no wonder that investors are nervous. One area of particular concern is the housing market. With prices soaring ever higher, and the economy balancing on a razor-thin wire, is a housing market crash in the cards?

    There’s almost certainly hardship ahead. But, if you’re looking for a real replay of the 2008 crisis, look no further than the crypto crash.
    …
    https://investorplace.com/2022/07/the-real-housing-market-crash-repeat-is-happening-in-crypto/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=Pushly

    1. I think the writer has his timeline wrong. Crypto crashed hard, for sure, but the housing crash has only just begun. The crypto market is a speed boat, while housing is a tanker ship that turns far more gradually. And the subprime lending that fueled the current leg of the housing bubble won’t come to light until the crash is plainly in view.

    1. Steve Saretsky

      @SteveSaretsky

      Bank of Canada hikes interest rates by a monster 100bps. Huge implications for the mortgage market as variable rates get repriced.

      7:05 AM · Jul 13, 2022·Twitter

      Steve Saretsky

      @SteveSaretsky

      ·

      14h

      Replying to

      @SteveSaretsky

      Buyers that were previously skirting the mortgage stress test using variable rates now have to qualify north of 6.25%. Purchasing power just got meaningfully reduced.

    1. When all of CONgress and the Justice Dept. are ballz deep in Pfizer stock, what did you expect?

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