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For Sellers Looking To Sell At The Top Of The Market The Reality Is It’s Already Too Late

A report from KING TV in Washington. “‘Literally houses are staying on market a lot longer. House prices are dropping anywhere from $50,000-100,000. I’ve seen houses drop $300,000,’ said real estate broker Ali Samael. Housing prices coming down are a welcome sight for those in Seattle looking to buy a home. For-sale signs and open houses dot lawns in West Seattle.”

From CNBC. “Markets seeing the sharpest drops are those that previously had the highest prices in the nation. Average home values in San Jose, California, have fallen 5.1% in the last two months, the biggest drop of any of the top markets. That chopped $75,000 off the price. In Seattle, prices are down 3.8% in the past two months, or a $30,000 reduction. San Francisco, San Diego and Denver round out the top five markets with the biggest price reductions.”

East Idaho News. “Some apartment complexes that have housed Brigham Young University-Idaho students for years as part of the university’s approved housing network are preparing to leave that network to sell units individually as condos. Erik Mattson is one of the owners of Abri Apartments. In his opinion, owners are getting out of that market because they don’t have a better choice. ‘The revenue model is broken,’ Mattson says. ‘The reason people are converting to condos is because they have no other option.'”

“‘In our company’s 50-year history, this is the only market we’ve ever lost money in, and the reason is really simple,’ Mattson says. ‘The university sold us on an idea and didn’t follow through.’ Mattson says he put Abri Apartments up for sale when most real estate markets across the country were hot, but nobody was interested. ‘People asked for information, but when they started to realize all the issues we were dealing with, they didn’t want to buy,’ Mattson says. ‘It’s an incredibly challenging market to operate in.'”

“Grant Collard is an owner with Redstone Residential, which owns several Rexburg housing complexes. Collard says Redstone does not plan to leave the BYU-Idaho-approved housing market, but he is aware of the challenges owners face. ‘More than half of Rexburg student housing is listed for sale, or informally for sale ‘off-market,’ Collard says in an email to EastIdahoNews.com ‘We aren’t seeing them sell either — there are very few buyers for these types of assets right now. This is not normal.'”

“‘A main contributor to our low-performing market is that we have a closed system and can only rent to BYUI single students,’ wrote Rachel Whoolery, president of the BYU-Idaho Off-Campus Housing Association. ‘When there are only 71.1% students enrolled, there are no other options to fill our beds. The beds must sit empty for 5 months!'”

From CBS Austin in Texas. “Over the past year, residents at The Standard – a new, luxurious student housing complex in West Campus – have dealt with a multitude of issues prompting a year-long search for answers. Troubles at The Standard located on West 23rd Street began almost immediately upon the beginning of lease terms in August. Residents told CBS Austin they were met with unexpected problems, during move-in some units were missing furniture, while others had mold, among several issues.”

“Allison Uebele, a resident of the building, said a rat infestation in her apartment forced her to live in a hotel room for weeks out of her own pocket. She cited additional problems at the building, such as a lack of outdoor street lighting for most of the school year, green, sulfur-smelling water upon move-in, and car break-ins in the garage as additional reasons why she says she “doesn’t approve” of The Standard. ‘It’s just not a safe place to live at all,’ Uebele said. ‘They branded it as a luxury building, but in reality a lot of the students don’t feel safe to live here.'”

“CBS Austin sent a poll as a Google Form to an apartment-wide group chat with questions regarding the residents’ experiences living in the building, freezing the poll after 75 responses. The answers were telling – one resident calling the apartment ‘an absolute joke.’ Another respondent said, ‘They literally just don’t care about their residents, it’s sad.’ Of those polled, over 75 percent say they do not plan on renewing their lease at The Standard.”

The Naples Daily News in Florida. “For sellers looking to sell at the top of the market the reality is it’s already too late. The market has peaked, and we are now on the downside of the record high prices we have experienced over the past two years. After a three-year consistent increase, we have seen the first dip in median sales prices over the past month.”

“In Lee County the median sales prices are down 4% and in Collier sales prices are down 7%. This downward trend has also been seen in the number of sales. Lee County sales are down 10% and Collier County sales are down 30%, making June sales in Collier County the lowest number since 2013. The active market is seeing price reductions of 20 to 1 as compared to price increases. Four months ago, we saw these numbers to be almost exactly the opposite, with most houses selling for above the asking price and even being raised once already on the market.”

From Mansion Global. “In New York City, many would-be buyers are taking a step back, compounding the typical summer slow down. The diminished demand from buyers may soon force sellers to come down in their pricing. ‘We had a very hot sellers market in April and May, but things have shifted and slowed down a bit,’ said Jessica Cohen, a broker with Douglas Elliman in New York. ‘Aspirational pricing is not working well for sellers, and brokers are not getting as much traction now. Buyers are not feeling as squeezed, and sellers are a bit more nervous.'”

“For developments that launched during these slower months and are under pressure to meet sales thresholds, there may be opportunities to negotiate. ‘If you’re looking in a development where there are multiple units for sale at similar price points, or the development launched a bit late and the timing was bad, there could be real opportunities there,’ Ms. Cohen said. ‘No matter how special one unit is, if there are five available you can have the upper hand.'”

The Globe and Mail. “Stephen Brown, senior economist at Capital Economics, said he was surprised by the tepid estimate for June growth, given that hours worked that month jumped by 1.3 per cent. Moreover, he noted that Canada’s economic recovery from COVID-19 has lagged behind the U.S. pace, and therefore Canada’s better fortunes of late are not as impressive as they seem. ‘The fact that we’re already seeing a slowdown is a bit concerning,’ Mr. Brown said. ‘We’ve been fairly bearish on the outlook for Canada, just because of the housing sector, but it does seem that we’re getting broader weakness elsewhere than was maybe anticipated.'”

“‘We’re seeing a downturn in renovations and improvements, which is linked to the housing market,’ Mr. Brown said. ‘Obviously, to the extent fewer investors are flipping homes, that means they’re going to be putting less money into improving them.’ Mr. Brown also pointed to preconstruction home sales in Toronto, which have fallen sharply. ‘That suggests we’ll see a downturn in housing starts over the second half of the year, just because so many developers rely on those preconstruction sales to get the initial funding.'”

From Reuters. “This April, Australian home repairman Reis Saki put his parents’ house on the market in Melbourne’s outskirts, with hopes of a quick sale so they could move closer to family and health services. But six weeks and two interest rate hikes later, he withdrew the listing after receiving no offers, despite a 10% reduction in the asking price from what had been an average amount for similar properties in the area. ‘It was just nothing, nothing at all,’ Saki, 45, told Reuters by phone. ‘I was really losing my cool.'”

“Meanwhile, after deferring loan payments from pandemic-impacted home owners, lenders have resumed ‘mortgage enforcement’ activity like filing for repossession from people in default, according to court data. In the first six months of 2022, property repossession filings in Australia’s three most populous states totalled 997, up 56% from a year earlier. That was still well below pre-pandemic levels but signals mortgage stress, borrower advocates said.”

“‘There are letters of demand being issued, especially from the second and third tier lenders,’ said Claude Von Arx, a financial counsellor at the Consumer Action Law Centre. SQM Research said property advertisements with phrases like ‘mortgagee in possession’ or ‘bank forced sale’ hit a record low of 5,500 in April, the month before rates began rising, from about 15,000 pre-pandemic. By mid-July, the number had risen 10%.”

From Fox News. “The housing market in China has recorded a sharp drop-off in home sales throughout July as underlying economic troubles make themselves more apparent. Sales dropped 39.7% in July from the same period last year, marking a roughly $77.6 billion — or 523.14 billion yuan — decline. Just from Jun to July saw a drop of 28.6%, which ended a two-month rally. ‘China’s economy has been slowing for quite some time,’ Craig Singleton, a fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News. ‘What we’re witnessing now is a rapid economic slowdown.'”

From France 24. “An Irishman at risk of losing his farm. An American having suicidal thoughts. An 84-year-old widow’s lost life savings: People caught in the meltdown of crypto lender Celsius are pleading for their money back. Hundreds of letters have poured in to the judge overseeing the firm’s multi-billion-dollar bankruptcy and they are heavy with anger, shame, desperation and, frequently, regret. ‘I knew there were risks,’ said a client whose letter was unsigned. ‘It seemed a worthwhile risk.'”

“From that hard-working single mom in Texas struggling with past-due bills, to the teacher in India with all his hard-earned money deposited in Celsius — ‘I believe I can speak for most of us when I say I feel betrayed, ashamed, depressed, angry,’ wrote one client who signed their letter E.L. ‘By the time I finished the e-mail, I had collapsed onto the floor with my head in my hands and I fought back tears,’ wrote one man who had about $50,000 in assets with Celsius.”

“The clients who said they were hardest hit, including a man who said he placed $525,000 he got from a government loan on Celsius, disclosed they had considered killing themselves. Others reported heavy stress, lack of sleep and feelings of deep shame for putting their retirement savings or their children’s college money into a platform that was far riskier than they knew.”

“For people like one 84-year-old woman, who only had her roughly $30,000 in crypto savings on Celsius for a month, their hope lies in the bankruptcy proceedings. ‘It’s just not unusual for people to come out of something like this with zero,’ said Don Coker, an expert witness on banking and finance. ‘Obviously I feel sorry for anyone who loses an investment like this, but it is just something where they need to be aware of the risks.'”

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This Post Has 135 Comments

  1. ‘Mr. Brown also pointed to preconstruction home sales in Toronto, which have fallen sharply. ‘That suggests we’ll see a downturn in housing starts over the second half of the year, just because so many developers rely on those preconstruction sales to get the initial funding’

    That sounds a lot like China’s ponzi scheme Steve.

  2. ‘six weeks and two interest rate hikes later, he withdrew the listing after receiving no offers, despite a 10% reduction in the asking price from what had been an average amount for similar properties in the area. ‘It was just nothing, nothing at all’

    You stand yer ground Reis, don’t give it away.

    ‘There are letters of demand being issued, especially from the second and third tier lenders’

    Two and three loans. Sound lending!

    1. Here is a companion post to my 2005 retrospective from a couple days ago. Some of these articles you could almost just change the date to 2005 and you wouldn’t know the difference.
      It can’t be a bubble because of fundamentals, because people have too much equity, because lenders are so smart about the money they lend, because of immigration and technology, because foreclosures are low, because unemployment is low…etc.

      These are recent articles.

      The New York Times

      https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/opinion/housing-bubble-us.html

      But this time is different, even if some house prices are starting to look like the 2000s bubble. I wouldn’t say that everything is fine, but a housing bubble probably isn’t in my top 10 list of things to worry about.

      CNBC

      https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/02/heres-why-experts-believe-the-us-is-in-a-housing-boom-not-a-bubble.html

      Here’s why experts believe the U.S. is in a housing boom and not a bubble
      “A bubble tends to be something that’s inflated that could burst at any minute and change and that’s not really the case here.”

      realtor.com
      https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/is-another-housing-bubble-brewing/
      We’re not in a housing bubble just yet—but we’re skating close to one if prices continue rising at the current pace,” says George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com®.  “Some markets will see a correction if mortgage rates continue to rise, in which sales will drop and prices will follow.
      But “I don’t expect the market to see a huge crash or spike in foreclosures,” he adds.
      Forbes
      Will The Housing Market Crash? Experts Give 5-Year Predictions.
      If you were hoping for a major downturn to snag a cheaper home, think again. Most housing experts are predicting the market to remain strong for a while for several reasons.
      Bankrate
      https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is-the-housing-market-about-to-crash/
      “If you look at what’s going on with home price appreciation, it feels bubble-ish. But if you look at the fundamentals behind it, it’s hard to say it is.”
      A plateauing of prices is the more likely outcome.
      We don’t have a bubble,” says Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. “We just have unhealthy home price growth.”
      Time
      https://time.com/nextadvisor/mortgages/mortgage-news/dont-wait-to-buy-a-home/
      Waiting on the Housing Market to Crash? Don’t, Experts Say.
      “There’s not really any room for there to be a bubble right now. It’s not like people have borrowed too much and it’s not like homes are overvalued,” says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
      Washington Post
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/06/housing-market-forecast-2022/
      But while the housing market is overvalued, it’s not a bubble. That would happen if the market turned speculative with investors —

      Money

      https://money.com/housing-crash-housing-bubble-history/
      Bubble or no bubble?

      Today’s market looks very different.
      Based on the fundamental underpinnings of today’s housing market, a market crash similar to the 2008 bubble bursting is highly unlikely, says Bill McBride, real estate analyst and author of the CalculatedRisk Newsletter
      “If prices went down 5%-10%, people would still have equity and very few people would be under distress,” says McBride. Adding, “I just don’t see how we can get cascading price declines.”
      JP Morgan
      https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/us-housing-risk
      Does the U.S. Risk Another Housing Market Fall?

      There is a low risk of another U.S. housing market correction
      Fortune
      https://fortune.com/2021/11/23/housing-market-no-crash-redfin-slower-rise-buyers-2022-mortgage-rates/
      No, the housing market isn’t about to crash

      Bloomberg

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-10/real-estate-prices-are-soaring-but-there-s-no-sign-of-a-housing-bubble

      Yes, Real Estate Prices Are Soaring, and No, It’s Not a Bubble

      Market Watch

      https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/dont-expect-prices-to-fall-3-prominent-economists-and-analysts-on-whether-were-in-a-housing-bubble-or-not-01639349113

      ‘Don’t expect prices to fall.’ 3 prominent economists and analysts on whether we’re in a housing bubble

      “With strong buying demand and under-building limiting the amount of housing supply,” Hale says, “we’re likely to see home prices remain high even if reduced affordability limits the pace at which they can grow.”
      Business Insider
      A housing crash is unlikely, but a correction could be around the corner.

      Doug Duncan, the chief economist of Fannie Mae, thinks the housing market is bracing for a “soft landing.”
      As the real estate market cools, the fundamentals that supported its growth — like record high home prices and home equity —  are likely to keep it relatively healthy.
      Barrons
      Yes, Housing Prices Are Up. But Americans Can Afford More.

      https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-housing-prices-room-to-rise-51640724269
      To sum it up, home prices are up a lot, but affordability is still better than the historical average, and supply and demand dynamics point toward continued resilience for U.S. housing.

      1. “It can’t be a bubble because of fundamentals, because people have too much equity, because lenders are so smart about the money they lend, because of immigration and technology, because foreclosures are low, because unemployment is low…etc.”

        What we learned in the 2007-2009 episode, and I expect to learn again this time, is how Wall Street has a way of getting in over its neck in long-oriented Housing Bubble investments.

        Once the current denial stage gives way to panic, I expect we’ll see another housing-related leg down in the stock market, just as happened in the wake of the fall 2008 housing finance collapse. Lessons that should have been learned are often times soon forgotten.

    3. ‘six weeks and two interest rate hikes later, he withdrew the listing after receiving no offers, despite a 10% reduction in the asking price from what had been an average amount for similar properties in the area. ‘It was just nothing, nothing at all’

      Sounds similar to the house next door to my friend. It’s been on the market for 2 months now, zero offers despite two price reductions. Now the “Zestimate” has fallen below the asking price. Uh-oh.

      1. The Zestimate on my parents’ home we grew up in is up 3X from what we sold it for in 2014.

        It will be interesting to see whether insane bubble valuations will hold up in the face of rate increases.

      2. I don’t think I’d count Zillow as a reliable source in determining a homes value. They lost like $500M of other peoples money playing that game.

        Yes, $500M is a lot! 😁

  3. ‘For sellers looking to sell at the top of the market the reality is it’s already too late. The market has peaked, and we are now on the downside of the record high prices we have experienced over the past two years’

    This was written by Denny Grimes. I’ve pointed out this REIC is pretty good about keeping bad news out of the media. If the head cheerleader is on the bus, the party is over.

    1. ‘For sellers looking to sell at the top of the market the reality is it’s already too late. The market has peaked, and we are now on the downside of the record high prices we have experienced over the past two years’

      – Housing is shelter, a place to live. It’s not supposed to be a speculative commodity asset, but thanks to the interventions of Wall St., Gov’t., and the Fed , that’s exactly what we’ve got. Housing bubble 2.0. No one learned from housing bubble 1.0 apparently.

      – The entire U.S. economy is now dependent on asset bubbles in stonks, bonds, housing, crypto, NFTs, SPACs, IPOs, etc. This was all driven by cheap credit, easy $, and huge, steaming piles of debt. The future was sacrificed for the now as demand has been pulled forward. However, there’s no free lunch. MMT is a fraud. You can’t get something from nothing. One can’t print or speculate their way to true wealth and prosperity. Inflation is an increase in the money supply. Milton Friedman knew a thing or two. Price increases follow.
      – Everything in finance and economics is completely jacked-up. Interest rates (i.e. the price of $) were held artificially low for way too long (financial repression). Debt levels are unprecedented and unsustainable. Congress is still spending money they don’t have with wild abandon. The Fed buys the IOUs via debt monetization. Banana republic stuff. Just charge it to the taxpayer account. Now the bill is coming due and the chickens are coming home to roost. The “everything bubble” is bursting. Too big to bail (out). Humpty dumpty.

      “Once a boom is well started, it cannot be arrested. It can only be collapsed.” — John Kenneth Galbraith

      “Genius is a rising market.” – Canadian-born economist John Kenneth Galbraith [So, what’s a falling market? 🙂 ]

      “Participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape. Thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang. There will be occasion to see the operation of this rule frequently repeated.” – John Kenneth Galbraith

      “Nations, like individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with impunity. Punishment is sure to overtake them sooner or later.” – Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

      “Money, again, has often been a cause of the delusion of the multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers, and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper.” – Charles Mackay

      “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett

      Alan Parsons Project
      The Turn of a Friendly Card

      The Turn of a Friendly Card (Part 1)

      There are unsmiling faces and bright plastic chains
      And a wheel in perpetual motion
      And they follow the races and pay out the gains
      With no show of an outward emotion

      And they think it will make their lives easier
      For God knows up till now it’s been hard

      But the game never ends when your whole world depends
      On the turn of a friendly card
      No the game never ends when your whole world depends
      On the turn of a friendly card

      “People actually believe that a few numbskulls with advanced degrees and finance pedigrees can control and manipulate a hopelessly complex 20 trillion dollar economy from the top down with these simple levers of moving interest rates around, printing money, buying securities.  It’s ridiculous.” – Dan Ferris, “When to Buy and When to Sell,” Stansberry Investor Hour, 10:30 mark, November 25, 2020

      “The tendency of an inconvertible paper money is to create fictitious wealth, bubbles, which by their bursting, produce inconvenience.” – Lord Liverpool

      “Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through its excessive quantity.” – Nicolaus Copernicus

      “In reality, there is no such thing as an inflation of prices, relative to gold. There is such a thing as a depreciated paper currency.” – Lysander Spooner

      “Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.” – Norm Franz, Money & Wealth in the New Millennium: A Prophetic Guide to the New World Economic Order

      1. “Once a boom is well started, it cannot be arrested. It can only be collapsed.” — John Kenneth Galbraith

        Indeed, grow or die.

      3. Now that the Fed has so successfully engineered so many bubbles, it will be interesting to see how hard they try to keep them propped up, especially if high inflation is a byproduct of such efforts.

  5. ‘House prices are dropping anywhere from $50,000-100,000. I’ve seen houses drop $300,000’

    Wa happened to my shortage Seattle?

    ‘Average home values in San Jose, California, have fallen 5.1% in the last two months, the biggest drop of any of the top markets. That chopped $75,000 off the price. In Seattle, prices are down 3.8% in the past two months, or a $30,000 reduction. San Francisco, San Diego and Denver round out the top five markets with the biggest price reductions’

    Crowz Thornberg.

    ‘Markets seeing the sharpest drops are those that previously had the highest prices in the nation’

    So a respiratory illness couldn’t make shack prices go to the moon Alice! and stay there? That was fast. I said this was going to happen. You can not have prices go up 30-40-60% in these sh%thole cities/towns in a year. It was insane and had to collapse and now it has.

    1. Easy come, easy go. Sounds like investors in these overpriced markets are taking a bath. I can’t wait to read about how much money they lost in a few months from now.

  6. ‘I believe I can speak for most of us when I say I feel betrayed, ashamed, depressed, angry’…‘By the time I finished the e-mail, I had collapsed onto the floor with my head in my hands and I fought back tears’

    You guy and gals are all over the stages of grief thing.

      1. “Experience keeps a costly school, but a fool will learn in no other.” —Benjamin Franklin

    2. It may take a while, but before too long we’ll see the housing investor version of this sad saga once again.

    3. From the same article:
      “From that hard-working single mom in Texas struggling with past-due bills,
      For some reason, I was not surprised to see this statement, and, I expect to see this statement in a lot more “poor me” articles going forward.
      Yeah yeah, I know, I am a cynical old $OB.

  8. Here in upstate SC ,Where we live, I filled up the car for $3.33 a gallon yesterday……Cheaper ,but not cheap,

    2. Consistently under $6/gal now in San Diego County. For a long time I’ve watched this game where they jack gas prices up to insane levels and then when it gets back down to $1 or $1.50 more than the “pre-jack” price, everyone feels relieved and we have a New Normal baseline price. Ugh

  9. ‘People asked for information, but when they started to realize all the issues we were dealing with, they didn’t want to buy,’ Mattson says. ‘It’s an incredibly challenging market to operate in.’”

    Yeah, it’s a real tragedy when the suckers are too savvy to buy into what you’re pitching.

  10. Sales dropped 39.7% in July from the same period last year, marking a roughly $77.6 billion — or 523.14 billion yuan — decline.

    Is that a lot?

    1. I was thinking the other day: we’ve seen the China bubble pop maybe 10 times since I’ve had this blog.

      1. China bubble pop maybe 10 times since I’ve had this blog.
        But it always seems to rise from the dead. Just like Crypto.

        2. But it always seems to rise from the dead. Just like Crypto.

          Buy the dip, sell the rip. It’s the reckless gambler mentality that central banks created. We need dips with no rips – a complete crash and decades long bottom.

        3. It’s the unique dictatorship/economic model. Along the way they had truly insane in scale stock, bond, currency and commodities bubbles. Oh and garlic once. It’s all they got apparently.

      2. Hasn’t China in the past signaled it would strongly support those bubbles though where this time there is a lot less willingness?

  11. ‘I believe I can speak for most of us when I say I feel betrayed, ashamed, depressed, angry,’ wrote one client who signed their letter E.L. ‘By the time I finished the e-mail, I had collapsed onto the floor with my head in my hands and I fought back tears,’ wrote one man who had about $50,000 in assets with Celsius.”

    You’d have to have a heart of stone to read these crypto baggie tales of woe, and not laugh.

    1. “…collapsed onto the floor with my head in my hands and I fought back tears,’ wrote one man…” “…had about $50,000 in assets with Celsius….”

      If this gambler had taken the same $50K and bet in all on “BLACK” Las Vegas roulette wheel, at least he would of gotten some free drinks, and possibly a discount coupon for a hooker.

    1. And their mortgage sooner or later resetting to a much higher rate and a much higher payment.

  15. A reader sent these in:

    “The pace of decline (in Sydney) is gathering speed, so it’s conceivable we could be seeing monthly declines of 4 per cent in a few months” – Shane Oliver AMP

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1553968203352588289

    Hey @neelkashkari
    – show a little accountability and resign. 330 million Americans and the rest of the world have to clean up after your mistakes.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1553934118500458497

    Alternate headline: “As housing prices fall, the ‘American dream’ of homeownership becomes possible again for some” : @NPR

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1553830830429982720

    Friend trying to sell his nice SF home in DFW just #delisted after 3 price cuts and 2 months in the market. Almost zero foot traffic, couple of visitors in the 60 day period. Couldn’t say I didn’t warn him!

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1553738438670704645

    Phoenix Housing Market Update 7/30/2022

    Homes for sale rocketing higher
    Homes sold collapsing
    Homes under contract collapsing
    Prices MoM falling

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1553833950165946368

    Me every time I see a $10,000 price drop on a $500,000 house

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1553896793577885697

    Herein lies the problem: During the last housing bubble consumer sentiment began to diverge from rising home prices. Then when prices tanked, consumer sentiment collapsed. Bulls believe that consumer sentiment will improve when home prices collapse this time.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1553822662832652288

    John Wake

    “As a result, the Phoenix-area median home price is poised to fall by $25,000 to $450,000 in July, according to pending sales tracked by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.”

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1553772885377892352

  16. Video: British Police Arrest Man For Sharing A Meme On Facebook
    by Steve Watson

    August 1st 2022, 6:19 am

    Video has emerged of British police arresting an army veteran after the man shared a meme on Facebook that was claimed to have “caused anxiety” for someone.

    51-year-old Darren Brady was arrested in Aldershot Friday for re-posting a meme of LGBT flags arranged in the shape of a swastika.

    The meme was originally posted by conservative political activist Laurence Fox, whose Twitter account was subsequently locked, as reported by the Daily Mail.

    Fox explained that the meme is a way of bringing attention to Pride Month increasingly being “enforced with a sense of hectoring authoritarianism.”

    When Mr Brady re-posted the meme to Facebook, someone reported him to the police, who turned up at his house, not once but twice.

    The first time, Brady said that the police gave him the ‘option’ of attending an “re-education course” at his own cost of £80 to avoid being arrested and potentially charged with a hate crime.

    Police then returned ten days later and arrested Brady, as well as Harry Miller, a former police officer turned activist who tried to prevent the arrest.

    Laurence Fox, who Brady also contacted in the intervening time, filmed the arrest.

    In the footage, Brady asks the officers “Why am I in cuffs?” to which one of them responds “It didn’t have to come to this at all.

    “Tell us why you escalated it to this level because I don’t understand,” Brady asks the officers, to which one replies “Someone has been caused anxiety based on your social media post. That is why you have been arrested.”

    Watch:

    https://www.infowars.com/

    1. That’s what happens when you don’t have a Bill of Rights, and are a “subject” of the state.

      Even back in 2017 when I last visited something felt very sinister in Britain. Now the mask has come off. Orwell warned us.

  17. ‘a rat infestation in her apartment forced her to live in a hotel room for weeks out of her own pocket. She cited additional problems at the building, such as a lack of outdoor street lighting for most of the school year, green, sulfur-smelling water upon move-in, and car break-ins in the garage as additional reasons why she says she “doesn’t approve” of The Standard. ‘It’s just not a safe place to live at all,’ Uebele said. ‘They branded it as a luxury building, but in reality a lot of the students don’t feel safe to live here’

    Let’s revisit how we got here: the three P’s, off shore money pouring into “recession proof” student living. Half baked luxury towers. This thing blew up years ago. And they keep building them.

    1. The HBB and its readers have been warning about ‘luxury student housing’ scam for at least 10 years.

      Apparently, these folks never got the memo.

  20. — ‘I believe I can speak for most of us when I say I feel betrayed, ashamed, depressed, angry,’ wrote one client who signed their letter E.L. ‘By the time I finished the e-mail, I had collapsed onto the floor with my head in my hands and I fought back tears,’

    Another episode of “Meet The Cratertons” 🤣

    Stamp them feet DebtDonkeys! Stamp’em!

    1. “If they use more they must pay an annual fee of $300 for each well plus they must meter the water and send in a monthly usage report and pay a fee for water that is pumped starting in Feb 2023. What a great racket! The government provides no service, no support, no product, doesn’t even do the billing! That’s all on citizens. All [the government does] is cash the check.”

      I like it. This is sort of what my borrowers do; they write me monthly checks and all I have to do is cash them.

    3. Yet one more incentive for productive businesses and individuals to leave the “Tarnished State”

      It is amazing how leftists have taken a state that was close to paradise and have turned it into a hell hole.

      1. state that was close to paradise and have turned it into a hell hole.
        I tried to get a job there decades ago. Now I don’t even want to visit CA.

        1. It’s where I was born. I lived there as a child and later as “younger adult”, with a long stint in Mexico City in between.

          I too have no desire to visit it now. My last time there was in 2018, when I visited the Santa Clara campus on business.

          1. I grew up there, too, and can’t stand to go back. Very sad to see the most beautiful state in the USA go to seed.
            I hope those well owners sue the government all the way up to the Supremes.
            By the way, don’t know where you are in CO, but I had lunch with a woman today whose parents recently died so they sold the house. Monument. Asked 975 … got 845. Closes in a couple weeks.
            Just a data point for you.

    4. The aquifer under the central valley is being pumped dry. The central valley is literally sinking because of it. There are some areas where they have verified that it has sunk by significant amounts. It is an interesting problem that I’m sure the government will make worse.

      1. A lot of aquifers across the western US are being pumped dry. And they can takes thousands of years to refill. Dumver is highly dependent on aquifers, and many are expected to go dry in a few decades.

  23. China has threatened to kill Pelosi and start ww3 when she goes to Taiwan. Lots of Chinese have stopped paying their bills. The Chinese ccp will fight a global war to deal with these unruly citizens.

    1. IIRC, Pelosi released an itinerary and Taiwan is not on it. The Dems will try to gaslight and say “we never said she was going to Taiwan”

    1. Wait until they have to deal with unruly invading armies. Unlike their “unruly citizens”, the invaders will be heavily armed.

  25. No Warming in U.S. for at Least 17 Years According to Rarely Referenced Urban Heat-Free Database

    by Chris Morrison | Daily Sceptic
    August 1st 2022, 4:34 am

    There has been no temperature warming for at least 17 years across the United States, according to results from a rarely referenced dataset that was designed to remove all urban heat distortions. The dataset, compiled by the Natural Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S., shows oscillating temperature changes, but very little evidence to indicate a warming trend. In fact, the above graph clearly shows the United States to be cooler in May 2022 compared to May 2005.

    The information is contained in the latest survey of all NOAA’s weather stations by the U.S. meteorologist Anthony Watts. The data is compiled from a select group of 114 stations across the country that have been specifically sited away from urban development. Called the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), NOAA started it in 2005 and noted that it was aiming for “superior accuracy and continuity in places that land use will not likely impact during the next five decades”. Representative pictures of the weather stations, as seen in this 2013 science paper, show there is no sign of any urban development. In his latest survey of U.S. “Corrupted Climate Stations”, Anthony Watts notes the existence of USCRN, adding: “It is free of localised heat biases by design, but the data it produces is never mentioned in monthly or yearly climate reports published by NOAA for public consumption.”

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/no-warming-in-u-s-for-at-least-17-years-according-to-rarely-referenced-urban-heat-free-database/

    1. ‘Uh-oh, deja vue isn’t going to like this–

      but I agree:

      ‘Once again, expats also highlighted the difficulties they had settling in in Germany. Overall in this category the federal republic ranked in the bottom five, being one of the 10 worst-rated destinations for each sub-category. More than a third of expats said they were unhappy with their social lives, while a quarter said they found the local population unfriendly. Nearly one in four said they did not feel welcome in Germany.

      Satisfaction with working lives and environment much higher
      On the other hand, Germany fared a little better in other categories – even making it close to the top 10 (12th overall) in the Working Abroad index, and claiming fifth place on the Salary & Job Security Subcategory – although some expats did feel that creativity was not encouraged in the German business culture. Nine out of 10 expats rated the German economy favourably, and said they were able to enjoy a stable life in Germany.

      Germany also scored a pretty good 15th place in the Quality of Life Index, with high scores in Safety & Security and Environment & Climate. Expats expressed that they felt safe in the federal republic, while green goods and services are readily available. When it comes to transportation, the general feeling was that infrastructure for driving, walking and cycling is there, but that public transport could be made more affordable.

      The best expat countries in the world
      Overall, the top 10 countries around the world for expats in 2022, according to InterNations, are as follows:

      1. Mexico

    2. AND
      it’s nearly impossible to speculate with Housing in Germany.
      That’s why the country didn’t have a bubble in 2008 –
      and that’s why the country will not have a bubble this time.
      (perhaps with the exception of a tiny, tiny mini bubble in Baden-Baden where once Russian Oligarchs had pumped up the prices)

      1. Here we go again “the Russians”.

        That dog don’t hunt.

        There some American you can Google. 🤣

    3. “The Worst Country to Live as an Expat”

      We’re so sorry, Uncle Helmut
      We’re so sorry if we caused you any pain
      We’re so sorry, Uncle Helmut
      But there’s no one left at home, and I believe I’m gonna rain

      Live a little, be a gypsy, get around (Get around)
      Get your feet up off the ground
      Live a little, get around

      https://youtu.be/ZWoGCdXT07g

    1. This article should be sent to every central American who is thinking of joining a caravan.

    1. Interesting that NatGas is the only one that is rising, and significantly. Not surprising as Europeans are scrambling to secure supply from anyone and anywhere, and are more than willing to outbid less wealthy countries. But the question remains: will they be able to secure enough? And how many potential suppliers have the facilities to liquify it for shipping?

      1. “…And how many potential suppliers have the facilities to liquify it for shipping?…”

        And not to mention the very specialized harbor/dock facilities at both shipping and receiving points to handle LNG.

        And not to mention the limited availability of very specialized ships that handle LNG.

        1. Exactly, replacing Russia as a supplier will take many years. Meanwhile, Winter is just 4.5 months away. Autumn is even closer.

          And, surprise, surprise: Euros are going to increase drilling! Still, some don’t seem to understand the Winter calamity that is waiting for them:

          The 10-mile-long island of Schiermonnikoog is known as one of the most beautiful places in the Netherlands, boasting the widest beach in Europe, 300 different species of birds and a bustling tourist trade.

          But after the Dutch and German governments approved the development of a new gas field roughly 12 miles from Schiermonnikoog’s shores, the island’s mayor is anxious about its future.

          “We are very concerned that the gas drilling will damage the area,” Mayor Ineke van Gent told CNN Business. “We also believe that there is no need to drill [for] new gas at all and that we should invest much more in renewable energy.”

          “We should” == “someone else should”. Just wait for the blackouts, Ineke. And I did a quick googlefu, and from what I found there are no wind turbines on your precious island. You guys should invest in blankets.

          1. Even if all the world’s LNG shipping capacity were to somehow magically become available, my gut tells me that it wouldn’t make more than a few percent points difference.

            The hard reality is that these very special, massive LNG transport ships are booked years [if not decades] in advance.

            Wouldn’t be surprise one iota if some workarounds that haven’t been seen since WWII will be put in place. (Like cooking a side of beef under a giant pile of cow manure, or using peat for heating. Lots available in Ireland, probably in many other spots in the EU).

            Problem is, none of this is going to move the demand needle downward more than a few percent.

          2. Problem is, none of this is going to move the demand needle downward more than a few percent.

            A good point. It could get so bad that long rolling blackouts are a daily occurrence and you simply cannot heat the flat because the NatGas will be needed for other purposes, like generating electricity.

            Perhaps a winter with little to no heating could be what convinces Europeans that green energy is a pipe dream.

          3. “Meanwhile, Winter is just 4.5 months away.”

            Germany gets cold in October, f*ing cold in November!

          4. ‘Perhaps a winter with little to no heating could be what convinces Europeans that green energy is a pipe dream’.

            No –
            Europeans will just blame Russia –
            which is kind of a shame –
            as it is the horrific globalist Putin who did and does the crime.

          6. ‘Exactly, replacing Russia as a supplier will take many years’.

            – and in these years Russia and Russian globalists will be blamed for everything their War Criminal President has done.

          7. ‘globalist Putin’

            ‘He’s very much a nationalist as I understand’.

            Not if it comes to buying Mansions under some other names in foreign countries.

          8. About 347,000,000 results (0.68 seconds)
            Changing the subject is the simple denial that the conclusion can follow from the premises, without identifying an actual error in the reasoning. Other fallacies are clear, such as undistributed middle term or denying the antecedent. What is the fallacy here?Aug 23, 2018

            When someone responds to an argument by changing the …
            https://philosophy.stackexchange.com › questions › when…
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            •

            People also ask
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          9. on the hand – if in the UK Russian Globalists get blamed for having created a Mansion-bubble in London there is a lot of truth to it –
            as Russian Oligarchs were willing to pay any price for British Real Estate.

          10. “Germany gets cold in October, f*ing cold in November!”

            Germany is placed at the 52 parallel North. Berlin’s latitude is 52.52 N.

            Some trivia about the 52 parallel:

            The 52nd parallel north is a circle of latitude that is 52 degrees north of the Earth’s equatorial plane. It crosses Europe, Asia, the Pacific Ocean, North America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

            At this latitude the sun is visible for 16 hours, 44 minutes during the summer solstice and 7 hours, 45 minutes during the winter solstice.

            The 52 parallel pass through some rather cold places such as Inner Mongolia, Alaska, Kamchatka Peninsula, Newfoundland, and Labrador.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/52nd_parallel_north

          11. and as before differences between the thinking of Germans and Americans were mentioned –
            About ‘the blame game’ Germans indeed seem to think a lot different than Americans?

            Because ever since the Germans one time blamed ‘the jews’ for everything – German children get educated in school that WE don’t do such terrible things anymore…

          13. AND considering ‘My Home is my Castle’ and/or ‘My Home is where my House is’ – isn’t it kind of… ‘strange’ that so many so called ‘globalists’ in Europe still have their main residences in their ‘homelands’ while so few Rich Russians have them in their own country?

            And what’s about this obsession with Yachts and foreign soccer clubs?

          14. and about
            ‘a Little Feat for those showering in the Fatherland this winter’.

            just don’t worry about US – as for example the last October and November was so warm on the Lake that we hardly needed any heating – and there is this prediction – if it keeps on getting warmer and warmer we sooner or later can leave our Palms out the whole year like in Sunny California.

          15. ‘Changing the subject is the simple denial that the conclusion can follow from the premises, without identifying an actual error in the reasoning’.

            Agreed – as I didn’t understand how somebody could change the subject ‘Housingbubble’ and ‘Housing’ in so many completely unrelated ways?

  36. “For people like one 84-year-old woman, who only had her roughly $30,000 in crypto savings on Celsius for a month, their hope lies in the bankruptcy proceedings. ”

    At 84 you should hope to make it to tomorrow.
    I wonder which Great-grandkid is to blame for the crypto loss!

  37. “The clients who said they were hardest hit, including a man who said he placed $525,000 he got from a government loan on Celsius, disclosed they had considered killing themselves.”

    No sympathy if that government loan was supposed to go toward paying employees? After all, he did enter the deal thinking he’d make a killing.

  39. KDVR — Yes, it is Californians that made Colorado so unaffordable (8/1/2022):

    “Yes, it is Californians that made Colorado so unaffordable.

    More precisely, deep-pocketed transplants played an outsized role in the blazing spike in Denver-area home prices, as well as national prices.

    Over the past five years, the people moving into Colorado have had significantly higher budgets than the people already living in the Centennial State. The trend is especially clear in Denver in 2020 and the years afterward.

    The year before the COVID-19 pandemic began, transplants looking for homes in the Denver area had a housing budget 3.8% higher than Colorado residents.

    That changed in 2020 when COVID restrictions triggered a race for space. That year, transplants’ housing budgets were 16.5% higher than people already in Colorado, the equivalent of $100,000 for the current median-priced home.

    Almost 23.8% of Colorado move-likely housing searches were from California in the third quarter of 2020, according to Redfin migration data — several times more than any other state.”

    https://kdvr.com/news/data/californians-colorado-unaffordable-migration/

    Become California, become California.

    1. ‘Deja vue, putin and un agree we are all going to die from nuclear war’.

      No –
      I don’t agree – as dangerous and criminal Putin might be –
      the World NEVER will let him go nuclear.

  42. Given that the entire cryprosphere is a massive speculative Ponzi scheme, what does it even mean to single out one firm?

      1. Cryptosphere

        Had to redo twice before noticing my phone’s autocorrect put in an “r” where I typed “t”. Annoying!

    2. The Financial Times
      Cryptofinance US Securities and Exchange Commission
      SEC charges 11 in ‘massive’ crypto Ponzi scheme
      US regulator says Forsage programme raised $300mn by ‘aggressively’ marketing to investors worldwide
      The US Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington, DC
      ‘Fraudsters cannot circumvent the federal securities laws by focusing their schemes on smart contracts and blockchains,’ the SEC said
      Scott Chipolina in London and Stefania Palma in Washington 3 hours ago

      The Securities and Exchange Commission has charged 11 people in an alleged $300mn crypto pyramid scheme, highlighting how authorities are increasing their enforcement in digital asset markets.

      The Wall Street watchdog said the scheme known as Forsage raised the funds by using promoters to convince millions of investors worldwide to recruit others into the programme.

      “Forsage is a fraudulent pyramid scheme launched on a massive scale and aggressively marketed to investors,” said Carolyn Welshhans, acting chief of the SEC’s crypto assets and cyber unit. “Fraudsters cannot circumvent the federal securities laws by focusing their schemes on smart contracts and blockchains.”
      …

    1. My 40ish nieces are both hellbent for buying RIGHT NOW. One of them is going through a divorce and has the Rona, but I don’t expect that to stop her.

      It’s the housing market equivalent of a shoeshine boy moment. I tried to warn their mom (my sister), but they are all too excited about the prospect of becoming homeowners for my warnings to gain traction.

      1. Your nieces are about to make the worst housing mistake of their lives. It will be unrecoverable. You must cut them or they will drain you til your dying day. It could lead to their suicide and drug alcohol addiction. Save yourself, cease all contact with dead people.

        Tina turner sang a great song in mad max, one of the living.

        1. It’s gonna be ok. They work pretty hard. They will just end up poorer than necessary due to the urge to follow the Millennial herd into a poorly timed home purchase. 🦬

      2. “I tried to warn their mom (my sister), but they are all too excited about the prospect of becoming homeowners for my warnings to gain traction.”

        Show them this.

        https://youtu.be/B7kiibl4bpI?t=55

        It will only take 1 minute to learn you should listen to someone who knows what they are talking about.

    2. “The labor market has just barely begun to turn over.”

      Maybe this time is different, but last time it seems like it followed housing down the drain. Then the housing collapse dragged labor down further. And soon the sucker really went down…

  44. “45% Of Independent Restaurants Couldn’t Pay July Rent (Up 7%)”

    (snip)

    “Here are some quick highlights:

    “The recovery rate for small businesses is at an all-time low of just 25%. That means 75% of small business owners have yet to earn the same monthly revenues they generated prior to COVID.
    46% of SMBs say they’re paying higher rent now than they did six months ago.
    45% of restaurants (up 7% from June) & 44% of retailers (up 9% from June) couldn’t afford their July rent.
    In fact, for restaurants & retailers, their rent delinquency rates in July were the highest they’ve been since the end of 2021.
    40% of salons couldn’t make rent in July, up 15% from 25% in June.
    48% of small businesses in transportation didn’t have enough cash to pay July’s rent.
    The overall rent delinquency rate for U.S. SMBs is 34%, just 1% shy of 2022’s highest rate (35% in June).
    The situation is a bit worse in Canada, where the rate is 37%.
    42% of SMBs in MA, 41% in NY, 40% in IL and 37% in MI weren’t able to fulfill their rent obligations in July.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-08-01/45-independent-restaurants-couldnt-pay-july-rent-7

  45. Someone’s desperate….

    Date Event Price
    8/1/2022 Listed for rent $1,600$2/sqft
    Source: Zillow Rental Manager Report a problem
    8/1/2022 Sold $171,500 (-2%)$174/sqft

    And this is a vibrant part of town.

  46. Does it seem like Pooh Bear is overdramatizing Pelosi’s visit?

    Doesn’t he realize this makes him look weak?

    1. Investing.com | Aug 01, 2022 11:00PM
      China, Taiwan Stocks Slump as Pelosi Visit Looms, Asian Markets Tumble
      By Ambar Warrick

      Investing.com– Chinese and Taiwanese stocks plummeted on Monday ahead of a possible trip by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses across Asian markets.

      Investors were wary of political tensions stemming from Pelosi’s potential trip to Taiwan- which has been vehemently opposed by China. The House of Representatives Speaker is currently on a tour of Asia.

      Reports said that both Taiwanese and U.S. officials had said that Pelosi could visit the country this week, despite warnings from China over such a move. U.S.-China relations are already at a low point due to Beijing’s ties with Russia.

      U.S. officials said Beijing’s responses to the meeting could include military action, or other “spurious” legal claims.

      As of 2218 ET (0218 GMT), the Taiwan Weighted benchmark index shed 1.8%, while the Chinese blue-chip index dropped more than 2%. The Shanghai Composite index also dropped 2.4%.

      Most other Asian bourses fell sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.6%.

      Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled 2.9%, with real estate and technology stocks weighing the most. Property developer Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd (HK:2007), and mobile phone maker Xiaomi Corp (HK:1810) were the worst performers on the index, down 6.2% each.
      …
      https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/china-taiwan-stocks-slump-as-pelosi-visit-looms-asian-markets-tumble-2859949

  47. The Washoe County Republican Party’s main governing body voted last week to reject the results of the 2020 presidential election.

    The resolution by the party’s central committee cites what it believes are problems with the county, state and national election processes and concludes,

    “We hold that acting president Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected by the people of the United States.”

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