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Some Buyers Regret The Outlandish Bids They Made During The Early Spring Frenzy

A report from KVUE in Texas. “As Austin-area housing inventory rises, Realtors are seeing signs of the market cooling off a bit. ‘Some sellers are doing more moderate price drops,’ said Ian Grossman, Realtor at Douglas Elliman Real Estate. ‘Some are getting a little more aggressive and dropping their price $25,000, $50,000, $100,000 just to attract more interest.’ He said homes went from selling in a couple of days to sitting on the market for a couple of weeks or even over a month, which he said was normal pre-pandemic, but it’s making sellers nervous.”

The Sentinel Colorado.”‘The numbers reflect what REALTORS are seeing in Adams and Arapahoe County where home sales have slowed, there is more inventory, fewer, if any bidding wars, and generally pricing is not exceeding list price,’ said local agent Sunny Banka. ‘It is clear that sellers are realizing now might be the highest price they will get for their real estate in the near future and home prices are seeing some adjustments as the interest rate increase. The price you may have received in March, isn’t likely to be the price you would get today.'”

City Weekly in Utah. “‘Homebuyers should be happy. Interest rates have dropped below 6% for 30-year mortgages. And inventory is up to pre-pandemic levels, with 150% more homes on the market than a few years ago. Surely, you’ve noticed ‘for sale’ signs going up like crazy?”

“You have much more to choose from, and some buyers are actually being able to purchase at ask or below asking price with the market adjusting. Markets around the country are seeing huge price adjustments, to wit: Nearly half (47.8%) of homes for sale in Provo had a price drop in May, Salt Lake City saw 45.8% of listings reduce prices, and Ogden had a 42.6% drop. This isn’t just in Utah—it’s happening in Denver, Portland, Philadelphia, Sacramento and all over the U.S.”

Bangor Daily News in Maine. “Some 8 percent of pending home sales contracts in the Portland area fell through in June, less than the national average of 15 percent and less than the highest in New England, 14.8 percent in the New Haven, Connecticut, metropolitan area, according to Redfin. The news comes on the heels of other data from Redfin showing 7.1 percent of its 852 active listings have had price drops in the Portland area from May 30 to June 26 compared with the same four weeks last year.”

“In Cape Elizabeth, two houses came back onto the market last week after prospective buyers backed out when they discovered problems during inspections, real estate agent Bethany Angle, owner of Angle Associates, said. ‘They probably got cold feet,’ she said. ‘It’s a really tough market.'”

From WJAX in Florida. “Jacksonville’s red-hot housing market has cooled in recent weeks. Redfin data shows the city is fifth in the nation, with a quarter of pending home sales falling out of contract. The metro comes in after Port St. Lucie, Cape Coral, Lakeland and Las Vegas, Nevada. ‘People are freaked out. Buying a house for three, four-hundred thousand at 3% versus 7% if you’re getting a mortgage, your payments are double now. So, it’s like a lot of people are having to pause,’ realtor Mike Boyle said.”

The Daily Journal in California. “San Mateo County’s real estate market is slowing, with June marking the third consecutive month of decline in home values and the first in years to see prices not increase from the year prior. Median selling prices for single-family homes in the county were $2.05 million last month, the same as June last year and a dip from $2.25 million in April, according to real estate database MLSListings. It’s the effect of more homes being listed as some sellers fear a downturn and less competition from buyers, who are finding they are unable to afford what they could earlier in the year, local real estate agents report.”

“South San Francisco Realtor Wilson Leung reported his average sale prices were down 10% from their peak earlier in the year, and while homes previously consistently sold in less than two weeks, they now take longer. He said while it’s common for inventory to increase in the summer months, recent figures are outside of seasonal norms. Leung added, sellers who don’t sell now should expect to wait at least a few years for the market to rebound. ‘I think the market gets worse from here,’ he said. ‘How much worse, I don’t know.”

“‘I think we’re pretty much done with over-asking offers these days, and if they are, it has to be quite the special property,’ said Marla Perego, a San Carlos Realtor and president-elect of the San Mateo County Association of Realtors. She described a home sold recently in Redwood Shores that went for 90% of list price after receiving just one offer, a contrast to months ago when it might have sparked a bidding war.”

From KREM 2. “North Idaho realtors told me this single family home in spirit lake would have gone under contract within a week if it was listed in February or march of this year. But now, that’s not the case. Homes like these are being listed for longer. Realtors say its not a bad thing, but buyers and sellers are having a tough time adopting the change. Realtor Kellie Hanna said today’s market is at a stand still. ‘Buyers are losing their power,’ Hanna said. ‘Sellers aren’t quite ready to drop the prices.'”

“Hanna said sellers are also struggling with change. ‘Sellers are panicking a bit,’ Hanna said. ‘Compared to even in January, a home would go on the market, we would get multiple offers, above asking and the home would go pending in a week. We’re not seeing that now.'”

“She said sellers need to continue to adjust to the reality of the market and price their homes accordingly. ‘People are starting to realize that they can’t get that and they’re dropping and dropping their prices,’ Hanna said. She said looking at housing data Tuesday, she saw over 100 price changes. According to the Coeur d’Alene Association of Realtors, between April and May 2022, the number of home listings increased by 58%. Despite this, the number of homes sold is down 15%, compared to May 2021.”

The Globe and Mail. “The rapid downturn in Canada’s housing market is restoring a sense of calm to buyers who no longer need to fear being sucked into the whirling vortex of bidding wars. But now that prices are sliding, some buyers regret the outlandish bids they made during the early spring frenzy. East of Toronto, Durham Region has seen dizzying price jumps in the past couple of years. Detached houses in family-friendly communities were relatively affordable at the start of the pandemic. Now ‘days on market’ are rising and price cuts are common. The swift turnabout is unnerving some sellers.”

“Shawn Lackie, agent with Coldwell Banker R.M.R. Real Estate, says buyers had 1,414 active listings to choose from last month compared with the unusually light inventory of 712 in June of 2021. His advice to sellers coming to the market now is to be patient and work with any offers they get. ‘Your first offer is typically your best offer,’ he says ‘Even if it has conditions, work with them.'”

“The Durham market reached a pinnacle in February, when the average price hit $1,228,990. In June the average price had fallen about 20 per cent to $972,354. Some doleful buyers these days are asking for an abatement in price to reflect the current market, says Mr. Lackie, adding that the sellers must then decide if they will renegotiate. Mr. Lackie says houses listed in February and March with asking prices of $799,000 in the Courtice area were routinely selling for between $1.15-million and $1.2-million as buyers lobbed bids $300,000 to $500,000 above the asking price.”

“Now buyers approaching the closing date for a property they bought in the spring can see average prices in the area have tumbled. If they estimate the price of the house they agreed to purchase has dropped by $260,000, for example, they might be tempted to forfeit the $60,000 deposit they gave and walk away, Mr. Lackie says. In that scenario, the sellers will likely put the house back on the market. If they end up selling for less, they may pursue legal action against the original buyer.”

“People moved to the suburbs where they could find that large backyard, and now areas such as York Region in the 905 area code have cooled off dramatically. In King Township, for example, the average price dropped to $2.083-million in June from $3.218-million in February as months of inventory swelled to 2.3 from 2.0 over that time. Only 21 properties changed hands in King in June compared with 86 new listings.”

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This Post Has 159 Comments

  2. From the first 10 minute video:

    Oakville Detached Homes Drop $600,000. July Might Be The Slowest Month If This Continues.
    Jul 13, 2022 Oakville real estate prices had another rough month. Detached homes have dropped $600,000 in 6 months. Burlington and Milton are also covered in this real estate market update for June and mid July. Detached homes, freehold townhomes and condos in Oakville, Burlington and Milton are covered here.

    The second 16 minute video:

    Are 2018 Home Prices Coming To Brampton & Mississauga
    Jul 13, 2022

    Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate Market Report for the week of June 30 – July 6, 2022. This video will focus specifically on Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering.

    The third 14 minute video:

    $10,000 Per Week Price Drops in Ontario, Won’t End Anytime Soon. 2022 Canadian Real Estate Market.
    Jul 12, 2022 In this video I briefly go over the June real estate statistics from Vancouver, Quebec, and Halifax and of course discuss the rapid price declines in Ontario and compare them with other times in recent history. I finish off by giving my opinion on CMHC’s most recent media statement.

    1. $10,000 Per Week Price Drops

      Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to get psychiatric help in Ontario.

  3. ‘In King Township, for example, the average price dropped to $2.083-million in June from $3.218-million in February’

    Is that a lot?

  4. ‘Some sellers are doing more moderate price drops…Some are getting a little more aggressive and dropping their price $25,000, $50,000, $100,000 just to attract more interest.’

    ‘He said homes went from selling in a couple of days to sitting on the market for a couple of weeks or even over a month, which he said was normal pre-pandemic, but it’s making sellers nervous’

    I don’t know about you guys but I’m not going along with framing everything in the “pandemic” comparisons. The CCP virus didn’t spark sh$t. It was the central banks and regulators that purposefully created what’s blowing up right now. Instead of “pandemic” we should say the disastrous central bank money creating period, cuz that’s what it was. Fudge yer pandemic.

    1. disastrous central bank money creating period

      Equally, it was not the pandemic that closed so many businesses, it was the disastrous government policies. I’m cruising where I haven’t been for three years. A lot has changed.

      1. Hundreds of thousands (or millions?) of small business owners lost everything, their life’s investment and retirement, flushed away!

          1. Not many women like the broke guy. What’s funny is a lot of them fell for the “all hat and no cattle stimmy ballerz.” As the repo man wrecks these fools’ lives, their ladies will be looking to monkey-branch to something more stable. If the Benjamins are prolific, the legs will open far and wide.

        2. mall business owners lost everything

          An HVAC guy I know told me that during the pandemic his preventive maintenance calls went to zero, because “people didn’t want him or one of his guys to enter their homes”

          1. Another reason I don’t do residential work unless I’m doing someone a favor. Commercial only.

    2. This is the correct view because the bank bailouts had already begun before covid hit. It is important to keep in mind that the bubble was already well inflated and in danger of imploding. Then they went absolutely nuts. Don’t worry though, they have it totally under control now. No, really.

  5. ‘a home sold recently in Redwood Shores that went for 90% of list price after receiving just one offer, a contrast to months ago when it might have sparked a bidding war’

    ‘North Idaho realtors told me this single family home in spirit lake would have gone under contract within a week if it was listed in February or march of this year’

    I’ve mentioned before UHS can’t stop referring to the red hotness. It was soooo hawt! Like they are marveling at a sunset about to go away.

    This N ID shack was in Spirit Lake BTW. Never heard of it.

    2. This N ID shack was in Spirit Lake BTW. Never heard of it.

      It’s the kind of place with no jobs, where a cabin should cost $30k.

      1. Nice fun place. Spent a 4th of July there in the 70’s. Great fireworks show. You like corn fields? Hope so

          1. Spirit lake ID. Make sure your white hood is in the wash. As I recall Mark Furman relocated there after the o.j. Trial. White sands ID area.

  6. Has the practice of companies using low interest loans to buy back their own stock shares ended?

    1. The Financial Times
      JPMorgan Chase & Co
      JPMorgan suspends share buybacks as earnings miss forecasts
      Net income at US bank fell nearly 30% in the second quarter
      The JPMorgan headquarters in New York
      JPMorgan added a net $428mn to credit reserves in the quarter amid growing worries that Fed interest rate rises will tip the US economy into a recession
      Joshua Franklin in New York
      30 minutes ago

      Net income at JPMorgan Chase dropped nearly 30 per cent in the second quarter of the year, the bank said on Thursday as it announced it was suspending share buybacks to meet tougher new capital requirements imposed by the Federal Reserve.

      Results at the largest US bank by assets missed analysts’ expectations. Net income for the quarter was $8.2bn, or $2.76 per share, down from $11.5bn, or $3.78 per share, in the same period last year. Analysts had forecast quarterly net income to be down at $8.5bn, or $2.90 per share, according to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg.

      This was the first time since the first quarter of 2020 that JPMorgan has missed profit expectations, according to FactSet, setting a downbeat tone for earnings at other US banks.
      …

      1. Just got my Mutual funds statement ….Wish I hadn’t looked at it now….It dropped like 40% in 6 months……Like an old guy once said…”Don’t worry about it ,it’s just money”…

        2. Oh what a difference a year makes. I just ran into an old client recently. She has TDS but that’s beside the point. Apparently she has already fallen on extremely hard times. She had to sell all the new stuff and is drowning in debt, and she’s “retired.” She’s now living in an MS13 infest trailer park with massive lot rent. I did not dig deep into what happened to her financially, but suffice it to say she sounds like a financial idiot. She’s looking for a job. Those are easy to get at 75, right?

    3. Didn’t Cramer say that yesterday would be the bottom?

      He who pick bottoms often wake up with smelly finger.

        1. The fed might buy a labor day “dead-cat bounce.” Then main street will have to fend for itself.

        2. Jim Cramer believes that the market will soon bounce

          ICramer has never been wrong about these things, has he?

  7. ‘She said looking at housing data Tuesday, she saw over 100 price changes’

    Maybe they raised their prices Hannah. Nah. But it’s still a sellers market.

    These UHS keep going on about irrelevant red hotness indicators. A month is an eternity now. In 2 weeks they pi$$ their pants.

    1. Example:

      ‘Markets around the country are seeing huge price adjustments, to wit: Nearly half (47.8%) of homes for sale in Provo had a price drop in May, Salt Lake City saw 45.8% of listings reduce prices, and Ogden had a 42.6% drop. This isn’t just in Utah—it’s happening in Denver, Portland, Philadelphia, Sacramento and all over the U.S.’

      Every one of these sh$t holes is a sellers market by UHS logic.

  9. This Week in Bozeman Real Estate
    Jul 13, 2022 ATTENTION BUYERS: This week Jessy talks about how we saw a drop in the percentage of listing price being paid for homes in Bozeman. What this means is that more people are paying UNDER ASKING for homes in the Bozeman area. Wait for the 2:10 minute mark of this video to hear what Jessy has to say about this shift in the market.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJw3lTBbdro

    4:38.

  10. Jul 13, 2022 Paradise Valley Market update | The market has shifted
    In this video we will share the paradise Valley Market update. The market has really shifted. I was on a home tour yesterday and the other agents said they are not getting any showings on their listings. Almost overnight as the economy has changed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pcjhq27bXWc

    4:23.

    1. IMO, a major catalyst to accelerate the downtrend are holding costs courtesy of inflation.

      Need to put a new roof on that crapshack that you waived inspection on? No problem. The $20K we quoted last year is now $40K.

      Need to replace rusted plumbing on that crapshack that you waived inspection on? No problem. Our new rates are $200/hr up from $125/hr last year.

      Need to replace …. ?

      (Thanks FED)

      BTW, you will never, ever read about inflated holding costs in the MSM. In the fairy tale world of the MSM, everything is Jim Dandy. (Not that roofers and plumbers advertise in the MSM… That has nothing to do with it.. <;{

      1. Even do it yourself repairs are getting quite costly. Many of the increases don’t seem to make any sense. We may be seeing the inflation psychology take hold where everyone is trying to see how far they can push prices up before demand falls. So far all of these increases appear to be passing through but there has to be a point where people stop buying. I like to research alternatives at other stores while standing right next to the product that has gone up 5x. I wonder if they can see that on their security cameras and then watch me walk out empty handed.

        1. “…everyone is trying to see how far they can push prices up before demand falls…”

          You may be on to something. Big box / big corporations know no boundaries when it comes to greed.

          In fact, raising prices to the breaking point, was/is a corporate objective for Disneyland entrance fees (along with everything else).

          What a world we live in..

          1. In fact, raising prices to the breaking point, was/is a corporate objective for Disneyland entrance fees (along with everything else).

            The ticket prices are unbelievable. I just took a looksie at their website. A 1 day ticket can cost as much as $164

          2. “… just took a looksie at their website. A 1 day ticket can cost as much as $164…”

            I wouldn’t pay those prices if you pinned me to the ground.
            I understand that food now is an outrageous ripoff.
            I understand that parking is also very expensive.

            In the 1960’s Disneyland was an inexpensive High School goto place for dates. Lots of great memories. Not anymore.

            The last time I was at Disneyland was for a corporate junket to the “secret/exclusive” Club33. (BTW, paper, not cloth napkins, the food wasn’t that great, the décor was much very similar to a CheeseCake Factory, but the service was pretty good). The big point of excitement was to see the window table that Walt Disney use to sit overlooking New Orleans square).

            Pure and simple, corporate greed out of control.

          5. Went to Disney in the 60’s $15 I think. But you had to use these ticket things for each ride. Tear one out and get on the ride. Wish I’d kept some of the unused ones. Yep still had it’s a small world then.

          7. Wish I’d kept some of the unused ones.

            I have read that Disney will take unused A-E tickets as payment (based on their face value, which isn’t much) towards the purchase of a current tickets. I did a google search and found that old ticket books are collectible and go for about $70 each if they still have all the original tickets attached.

  11. Sellers Discounting, Buyers Canceling, Inflation and More | Orlando Real Estate Buzz
    Started streaming 20 minutes ago Join Joseph Dionne of Appli Home Loans and I tomorrow morning at nine o’clock as we look at the factors affecting the housing market. Sellers dropping prices, Buyers canceling contracts, Inflation and Recession…Did we miss anything?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KYUC4rzUPw

    This is live now. “FOMO is gone”

  12. The real estate investment platform Arrived Homes, backed by Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos, is launching its largest batch of new offerings with a total of 14 new single-family rental properties set to go live. Seven of the 14 rental homes are hitting the platform today and the remaining properties are expected to become available later in the week.

    The rental property investment platform allows individual investors to purchase shares of the single-family properties with investments ranging from $100 to $10,000 per property.

    Arrived Homes caught the attention of several high-profile investors last year. Jeff Bezos invested in the company’s $37 million seed round last June through Bezos Expeditions and recently made a second investment during the company’s $25 million Series A round.

    The platform has experienced rapid growth since its launch last year, which is largely due to Arrived being one of the few real estate investment platforms available to non-accredited investors. The company funded 51 homes on its platform during the last eight months of 2021, with approximately $18.5 million in property value. So far in 2022, Arrived Homes has already funded over $30 million worth of rental properties.

    The newest batch of properties has a total value of approximately $7 million. The properties are located in several high-growth markets, including Atlanta, Nashville, upstate South Carolina, and Northwest Arkansas.

    1. non-accredited investors

      What kind of credentials might be required aside from having cash?

    2. All of these billionaires have rotated into needs based “investments,” so they can take every last bit of the pie. I’d like to see Bezos die on his massive rocket-powered dildo. That’s just me.

  13. Maryland Real Estate Market Update for Anne Arundel County July 2022
    Premiered 22 hours ago This is your monthly real estate market update for Anne Arundel County Maryland with James Bowerman and the Real Creative Group of Compass.

    Let’s take a quick dive into a few of the metrics for Anne Arundel Counties housing inventory. Coming Soon: There are 138 homes coming soon to the market, which is 9 fewer than last month. Properties cannot be in the Coming Soon status for more than 21 days.

    Active Listings: There are 913 properties currently active for sale. This is 158 more homes compared to last month, and a 7% increase compared to this time last year. For the second month in a row we saw a year-over-year increase in active inventory. Before this we have to go all the way back to May of 2019.

    Under Contract: There are 1,255 homes under contract and no longer available to tour or purchase. This is 75 fewer properties compared to last month, and a 30% decrease compared to this time last year.

    Homes Sold: There were 958 homes sold during the month of June, which is ironically the same number we saw in May, but a huge 25% decrease compared to this time last year. So not only are more homes coming on the market, but fewer homes are going under contract and being sold.

    The average days on market increased to 14 days, which means homes sold 1 days slower on average compared to the previous month. Another statistic on the rise is price reductions, which we saw 365 in the last 30 days, which is about 40% of the active listings.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at1sbBMHY4U

    4:50.

    1. Is $6 billion alot?

      “Depositors’ lost US$6 billion is reminder to authorities that advanced technology alone cannot maintain stability, says academic”

  19. Rio Linda, CA Housing Prices Crater 20% YOY As Subprime Mortgage Lending Blows The Doors Off Sacramento Area Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/rio-linda-ca/market-trends/

    As one national broker disclosed, “There are no bidding wars nor has there ever been… It’s just something we deliberately misrepresent to get the buyer to pay far more.”

    1. CR8R

      Stock Market Indexes Tumble Nearly 2% After Another Hot Inflation Report; Bank Earnings Disappoint
      JUAN CARLOS ARANCIBIA 10:16 AM ET 07/14/2022

      The stock market fell nearly 2% after another hot reading on inflation. Indexes traded at session lows around 10 a.m. ET.

      The Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 sold off almost 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 1.8%.

      Volume fell on the NYSE and Nasdaq compared with the same time on Wednesday.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-indexes-tumble-nearly-2-after-another-hot-inflation-report/

  21. New York COVID-19 Quarantine Rules Unconstitutional and Illegal: Judge

    ‘A New York Supreme Court judge this month quietly ruled that regulations mandating that people infected with or exposed to highly contagious communicable diseases be quarantined are a violation of state law, declaring them null and void. The Isolation and Quarantine procedures, known as Rule 2.13, were enacted in February.’

    ‘Plaintiffs argued that the Isolation and Quarantine procedures were in violation of the New York State Constitution and a violation of the separation of powers.’

    “It’s unconstitutional in our eyes, and anything like that should go through the legislature,” Tague told local media. “It should have an opportunity to be debated. To be able to have facts brought forth by health professionals, and leaders within our communities before we just decide to put something into law.”
    ‘Lip Service’

    ‘In a July 8 ruling, Acting Justice of the Supreme Court of Cattaraugus County Ronald D. Ploetz sided with the plaintiffs, stating that the rule merely gives “lip service” to constitutional due process.’

    “Involuntary detention is a severe deprivation of individual liberty, far more egregious than other health safety measures, such as requiring mask wearing at certain venues. Involuntary quarantine may have far-reaching consequences such as loss of income (or employment) and isolation from family,” Ploetz wrote.

    ‘The judge added that there was “no scientific data or expert testimony” to back up the rule. “Respondents offered no scientific data or expert testimony why Rule 2.13 was a necessary response to combat COVID-19, but instead contend only that it would provide a quick and nimble approach to combating the pandemic,” wrote the judge. “Nevertheless, during oral argument of this matter, at a time when we hope that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, counsel for the Respondents were unable to cite any instance where the procedure set forth in Rule 2.13 was actually utilized.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-york-covid-19-quarantine-rules-unconstitutional-and-illegal-judge_4597334.html

    1. unable to cite any instance where the procedure set forth in Rule 2.13 was actually utilized.”

      It was. My eldest is in a NY State run program for the disabled. She was mandated to stay at home (in her room) after one person at the program she attends tested positive.

  22. Guelph Real Estate Weekly Market Update – July 13th, 2022
    Jul 13, 2022 Having a proper understanding of what is happening in the Real Estate Market is key to ensuring you make the correct decisions regarding buying and seller your home.

    More and more conditional offers are being accepted in this market. Read all about what a conditional offer is and some common conditions. Less buyers means a change in selling strategy. Holding offers is being replaced with an irrevocable.

    Not as many homes selling over asking: In early 2022, over 90% of homes were selling over asking. This has been declining to a current 28%. We’re currently moving to a more balanced market with over 310 listings in Guelph.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8o0v7WnGZk

    2 minutes.

    2. Call me old fashioned, but if you can’t afford my home I”m not paying for you to buy down the rate. Buy it down yourself. F*cking people, worrying more about a payment than what they are paying for the house. THAT’S HOW WE GOT HERE.

      Remember in 2000 time frame when you would up the price of the house and GIFT the person the down payment. So your $250k house would sell for $265 and you would GIFT the buyers $15k to use as a down payment. The net to you is the same, what do you care? Of course appraisers are slime and went along with this.

      Luckily obviously we are completely above board with everything now and now we just buy down their interest rate since they still have no cash. Some sound lending there.

  25. Does it seem like the Fed can’t raise rates fast enough to chase down inflation?

    1. The Financial Times
      Federal Reserve
      Soaring US inflation puts pressure on Fed to abandon guidance again
      Some traders are betting central bank will opt for 1 percentage point increase despite telegraphing a smaller rise
      Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. The US central bank has emphasised its ‘unconditional’ commitment to tackling high prices
      Colby Smith in Washington yesterday

      The Federal Reserve is under pressure to abandon its monetary policy guidance for the second month in a row in the face of soaring inflation, as market participants increasingly bet the US central bank will raise interest rates by a full percentage point at the end of the month.

      Consumer prices across most goods and services rose again in June at a speed that pushed the annual increase to 9.1 per cent, the biggest jump since November 1981.

      The advance surpassed even the most aggressive forecast by economists and was yet another unwelcome development for a central bank that has emphasised its “unconditional” commitment to tackling high prices — even at the expense of the economic recovery.

      It also threatens to further muddy the Fed’s communications with investors, given that policymakers have sent clear signals to markets that they intend to raise interest rates by 0.5 or 0.75 percentage points at their next meeting, which concludes on July 27.

      But following June’s inflation report, economists now expect the Fed to implement a 0.75 percentage point increase at the bare minimum, and traders in federal funds futures contracts put the odds of a full percentage point increase at more than half, according to CME Group.

      “The mistake they have been making and maybe they’ve learned from is tying their hands and saying we won’t hike more than 25, 50 or 75 basis points,” said Diana Amoa, one of the chief investment officers at Kirkoswald, a hedge fund.

      “If you are indeed data dependent, then you need to leave the optionality to be able to pivot whichever way the data is pointing,” she added. “What the data is saying is the Fed is only at the early stages of trying to tackle this inflation overshoot.”
      …

        1. The Financial Times
          US interest rates
          Senior Fed governor open to 1 percentage point rate rise
          Christopher Waller would support ‘larger hike’ at July meeting if ‘incoming data’ warrants move
          Christopher Waller
          US Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller has said stronger than expected retail sales and housing data could prompt him to lean towards a large interest rate increase
          Colby Smith in Washington and Kate Duguid in New York 44 minutes ago

          A top official at the Federal Reserve has left the door open for the US central bank to raise interest rates by a full percentage point at the end of this month if warranted by incoming data.

          Fed governor Christopher Waller on Thursday reiterated his support for a three-quarter percentage point increase at the July gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee, but indicated that he was open to a larger move.

          “My base case for July depends on incoming data. We have important data releases on retail sales and housing coming in before the July meeting,” he said at an event hosted by the Global Interdependence Center.
          …

      2. trying to tackle this inflation overshoot

        They’re liars and thieves. They baked the cake and now promise a tonic.

    2. Does it seem like the Fed can’t raise rates fast enough to chase down inflation?

      You can never get ahead of inflation when you’re constantly behind it. The fed funds rate has never been so far detached from CPI. With a 9.1% inflation rate, and a 1.75 fed funds rate, it’s laughable to think that the FED is doing anything. They should have had an emergency 500 basis point rate hike yesterday, but they are just talking sh!t instead.

      1. They created the inflation for years…printing money. Your CPI is just a symptom of inflation, not inflation itself.

        1. The term “inflation” is used by economists to describe a general increase in the price of goods and services in the economy. Pick nits all you want, but that’s all you’re doing.

          1. used by economists

            They know better or they are idiots. I generally do not try to control what words people use, but the way “inflation” is sold to the public prevents them from understanding, I think intentionally so. If people understood, they would object to the spending beyond means and the borrowing away of their future. Well, perhaps nobody cares.

          3. nitpick

            To be concerned with or find fault with insignificant details.

            To criticize or find fault with (someone or something) in a petty way.

  26. Price drops, more inventory: Austin housing market cooling down | KVUE
    Jul 13, 2022 Local Realtors say housing market inventory is up as the market begins to cool off. But prices likely won’t go down to 2019 levels.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiBPtb7mbmg

    2:37. This is the video version of the first link in the post above.

  27. Steiner Ranch Housing Report – July 2022
    Jul 13, 2022 The Steiner Ranch real estate sales numbers for June are available. While these numbers show an increase in prices, the inventory is stacking up fast and prices are already coming down, though it will take a little bit before the stats reflect it.

    In June, 18 resale homes closed in Steiner Ranch which was down 38% from June 2021. The median price in June increased year-over-year by 46% to $1,120,500. The average price of a home increased 20% to $1,181,259. The average price per square foot increased by 13% to $352.22. The reason these numbers are so high is that in June 2021, almost 2/3 of the homes that sold were in neighborhoods that are at or below the mid-point of Steiner. Yet in 2022, fewer than half were in that range. That makes the almost 50% jump higher than what it really is and not a perfect measure of the market over the past year. That’s one reason I like to look at a longer timeframe – so we can get a smoother picture. Looking at the first six months of 2022, the number of resale homes sold is 100, down 32% from the first half of last year. The median price of a home has increased 38% to $1,093,000. The average price increased by 25% to $1,180,261. The average price per square foot increased 25% to $352.36. I think these six month numbers are a good measure of what I see in the marketplace. But… last month, I said that I expected we would start to see prices come down a bit. Because of the lag from contract to close to reporting the sale figures, we don’t yet see it statistically. However, with what I saw in June, I’m absolutely convinced prices are declining already. Let me share some more data with you to back it up.

    The number of available resale homes at the end of June was 49, up from 19 last June. But, more importantly, that was up about 150% month-over-month because we had 20 homes available at the end of May. There were more homes available at the end of June than at any time since September 2019. The inventory we all were hoping for during the past two years, well, it’s finally arrived. In fact, 49 new listings hit the market in June, an increase of 44% over last June. In fact, to find a comparable number of new listings, you’ve got to back to the 48 we had in May 2019. While more inventory would have been welcome in the past, the problem is the number of buyers has fallen dramatically. In June, just 13 homes went under contract – when normally it would be 2 to 3 times that many. With the imbalance of supply and demand having inverted so quickly, a decline in prices is inevitable. We didn’t see it this month, and I think it will be close as to whether or not we see it in the July sales figures, but we will see it soon.

    The average sales price to list price ratio was 103.6% and for homes that closed in June, the average days on market was 9, up from 7 last year. Across Steiner, the June sales ranged from a low of $660,000 to a high of $2,043,825. All of these are still pretty much what we’ve experienced over the past two years, but I expect to see the list price ratio to drop under 100% next month and days on market will probably double and increase for a while longer.

    One statistic that I don’t think I’ve ever reported in the almost 12 years I’ve been doing these monthly videos is the number of price reductions. But this month, I want to mention it to drive home how the supply & demand is changing. During June, there were 39 price reductions on homes in Steiner. Compare that with just 7 in June 2021 – over a five fold increase. Even just the prior month of May, there were 12 so this is more than a three fold increase in just one month. Again, lower prices are coming.
    The market we experienced over the past two years was unsustainable. Our market was due for a slowdown, though I am concerned with how fast it has slowed. As I speak with other agents around the country (which I do in a formal setting every two weeks), only a few markets are not slowing down. However, none has slowed as much as the overall Austin market. Obviously, the interest rate hikes have reduced the buying power of buyers. As prices begin to come down, buyers who don’t have to buy immediately are understandably wanting to hold off a bit to see just how far down prices will come dome. It is incredibly difficult to time the market, but I completely understand waiting a few months in our current environment to see how the inflation numbers look, how the Federal Reserve responds, whether we’re already in a recession, and what the prices do in the short term. In the long and medium term, I expect the Steiner real estate market to do quite well. The question mark is the short term. How much will prices pull back and how long will the short term will last. There are always buyers who need to buy and there are great homes on the market right now. But unlike in the recent past, even the great homes can take a while to sell.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nmVAQoD7P0

    6:45. This is some where around Austin.

  28. Are you worried that amoebas might eat your living brain?

    If so, I suggest selling all of your cryptocurrency.

      1. Oh gawd, don’t tell the realtors in the desert about this or they will use it in all of their listings as another reason it’s a good time to buy in the desert. No Brain Eating Amoebas!!!11!1

    2. I’ve noticed that BitCON has been magically levitating for almost a month at its “support level” of $20,000.

  29. Denver Housing Market Update
    Jul 13, 2022 Yes the housing market is shifting… along with the rest of the economy.

    The health pandemic created a situation where the Federal Reserve injected a bunch of liquidity, trillions in stimulus checks and PPP loans, meanwhile supply chains were slowed down due to lock downs, they still are in China (world’s largest exporter).

    The housing market always slows this time of year, now it’s combined with an overall economic recession.

    Housing inventory nearly doubled from one year ago, 3,112 to 6,056. To keep perspective, in June 2019 we had 9,520 homes for sale. In June 2007, we had over 27,000 homes for sale. I expect inventory will rise to 9k-10k homes by end of the summer.

    Lenders are now offering more creative loan products (ARMs and 2/1 buy downs) to help the monthly payment for buyers today.

    Home buyers, you now have more negotiability than you’ve had since 2019. Especially first time home buyers, now is your time to see what you can afford and what leverage you have in this market.

    Talk with your lender and understand what your ideal monthly payment is. Focus on the payment. You’re buying a monthly payment unless you’re buying it with cash.

    Home sellers, pricing matters now more than it did several months ago. Don’t expect your home to sell in 4 days. It may take 2-3 weeks. Consider buying down a buyers rate before a price reduction. OR, if you can wait, wait to sell in the Q1 (Jan-March) when we see the majority of our annual appreciation.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpg5mCaGN3A

    5:20.

      1. ‘OR, if you can wait, wait to sell in the Q1 (Jan-March) when we see the majority of our annual appreciation’

        Ima countin’ my chickens – before they hatch!

        1. “our annual appreciation.”

          Priceless 🤣🤣🤣🤣

          Don’t forget to the clucks and brays.

    2. This UHS is an idiot. “focus on the payment”???????????

      WRONG WRONG WRONG.

      It’s all about the price you pay. The price is the most important thing, focus on the steak not the peas. Statements like this are why nobody trusts or likes realtors.

      we are so doomed.

      2. We have a two-year lease through 2023, and I fully expect housing to be in CR8R mode by year-end 2023.

        NOT doomed…

    3. Subprime is back…if it ever left.

      “Lenders are now offering more creative loan products (ARMs and 2/1 buy downs) to help the monthly payment for buyers today.”

    1. The Financial Times
      JPMorgan Chase & Co
      JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley profit miss casts pall over Wall Street
      Net income at both lenders fell nearly 30% in second quarter as work on IPOs and Spacs dried up
      The JPMorgan headquarters in New York
      JPMorgan added a net $428mn to credit reserves in the quarter amid growing worries that Fed interest rate rises will tip the US economy into a recession
      Joshua Franklin and Imani Moise in New York 29 minutes ago

      JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley cast a pall over Wall Street after reporting a bigger-than-expected decline in second-quarter profits that signalled the end of the industry’s pandemic-era earnings boom.

      Wall Street banks raked in record fees during the coronavirus pandemic by working on a flood of mergers and acquisitions, public listings and special purpose acquisition companies.

      But the pipeline of business, in particular the flow of initial public offerings, has slowed markedly since the start of the year as investors have shied away from Spacs and money-losing start-ups.

      It was the first earnings miss from either JPMorgan — the largest US lender by assets and an industry bellwether — or Morgan Stanley since the start of 2020.

      “In terms of outlook [for investment banking], while our existing pipeline remains healthy, conversion of the deal backlog may be challenging if the current headwinds continue,” JPMorgan chief financial officer Jeremy Barnum said in a call with analysts.
      …

    2. It’s Crunch Time for the SPAC Boom’s First Listings
      By Luisa Beltran
      Updated July 12, 2022 8:59 am ET / Original July 12, 2022 12:30 am ET
      Bill Ackman is winding down his special purpose acquisition vehicle—and he won’t be the last.

      Two years ago, special-purpose acquisition companies were roaring through the IPO market as stock issuance heated up after going stone-cold early in the pandemic. Now, the volume of deals is off by nearly 90% and many of the SPACs that launched in 2020 may have to give investors their money back.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/dividend-aristocrats-stocks-hormel-chevron-recession-51657137815

  32. Jul 14, 2022 St. Petersburg Florida real estate market is changing. More homes are hitting the market and home prices are slowing down some. The shifting market is here in St. Petersburg Florida.

    – New Home Inventory is UP from May – June 2022
    – Pending Homes are DOWN
    – Sold Inventory is DOWN
    – Home Prices Declines some in Single Family Homes and Condos / Townhomes
    – Median Days on Market is still very short (less than 7 days)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIWooXG57u0

    3:31.

    1. Producer Prices Jump More Than 11%

      The producer price index jumped 11.3% in June from the same period a year ago. That’s above estimates of 10.4% although a slight decline from the previous month’s 10.8% increase. Wholesale prices climbed 1.1%, also above expectations.

      “It’s clear that food and energy are driving PPI higher, as was the case in yesterday’s inflation print. When removing these volatile components, PPI appears to have peaked and is starting to roll over, a telltale sign that the economy is shifting into late-cycle territory,” Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a commentary.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-indexes-tumble-nearly-2-after-another-hot-inflation-report/

  35. A reader sent this in:

    Most qualified buyers in history!

    https://twitter.com/OGtexasrunner/status/1547363271220551680

    An open letter to Aspen Real estate Agents:
    Take off the lampshades, it’s hangover time.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1547239751173844993

    Mohamed A. El-Erian

    Curve inversion deepens, with 2s-10s at -20 basis points — this as #markets push the #Fed to be more aggressive with rate hikes while recognizing the greater risk to growth that comes with that.

    https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1547272930827984896

    1. Mohamed A. El-Erian

      He’s a fraudster who should be in prison, but that’s not saying much considering almost the entirety of Wall St. bank heads should as well. We lost the rule of law, which is why we are so far divorced from financial and economic fundamentals. If they prosecuted fraud, then liars couldn’t chase asset prices beyond what incomes support.

  36. When will the libtard & special snowflake renters of NYC make the connection between the Fed’s “No Billionaire Left Behind” monetary policies, and their soaring rents?

    Manhattan Rents Soar to a Record With Landlords in Driver’s Seat

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/manhattan-rents-soar-to-a-record-with-landlords-in-driver-s-seat?sref=ibr3A0ff

    Manhattan apartment rents reached another record high in June, with even more pain to come for prospective tenants as the market heads into its most competitive season.

    New leases were signed last month at a median of $4,050, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. That was up 25% from a year earlier, just as the rental market began to emerge from its early-pandemic slump, and $50 more than in May, the first time in history that the median cracked $4,000. Average rents, a figure that’s more skewed by the most-expensive deals, passed the $5,000 threshold for the first time.

  37. Gosh, if millions of Chinese FBs stop making mortgage payments on skyboxes they will never occupy, I fear that could end up bringing down the lenders who are using those properties for collateral. This could also morph from the stamping of little feet into outright social unrest, which would seriously spook the tyrannical CCP. This is my “deeply concerned” face.

    China’s Troubled Property Market Has Global Investors On Edge

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/china-s-troubled-property-market-has-global-investors-on-edge?srnd=premium-asia&sref=ibr3A0ff

    Former UBS Group AG economist Jonathan Anderson once called it “the most important sector in the universe.”

    More than a decade on, Chinese property is again grabbing the attention of global investors — this time for all the wrong reasons.

  38. The Best Builder Incentives with The Flemming Team – Columbia, SC
    Jul 14, 2022

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xIPotjicrE

    6 minutes. Lot’s of move in ready. Starting to cut base price for military, etc. Mad money! I only started looking for videos like this when it started in Phoenix how ever many weeks ago that was. Not much showed up. Now there are so many I can’t look at but a few.

  39. Under globalist Quisling regimes, the West’s descent into 3rd World banana republics is accelerating.

    Just when you thought airport hell couldn’t get any worse: Gatwick runs out of WATER forcing restaurants to close and leaving passengers with just TWO TOILETS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11014465/Gatwick-airport-runs-WATER-forcing-restaurants-close-passengers-left-no-toilets.html

    Gatwick Airport has run out of water in the middle of one of the hottest heatwaves in years, leaving passengers stuck with a limited amount of toilets.

    A burst water main in Crawley resulted in low water pressure at their airport, creating even more chaos for stricken holidaymakers already facing cancelled and delayed flights.

  40. You’ll live in a shed, & you’ll like it! Heckova job, “Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke, Yellen the Felon, & BlackRock Jay.

    Woman Living in $2k Shed Thanks to Online Trend Says She Was ‘Ripped Off’

    https://www.newsweek.com/woman-living-shed-thanks-online-trend-ripped-off-1724319

    A woman’s account of her life in a $2,000 shed during the Texas heatwave has sparked an anguished debate about affordable housing.

    Elizabeth Rishforth, posting on TikTok under the username @a_nobody_goodbye, shared a video of herself red-faced and sweating on June 23. She was living in a shed without electricity or running water in Houston, Texas, she said.

  41. Oh dear…the DNC will be clutching their pearls in vicarious distress as their CCP ideological comrades confront a growing mortage strike by upset skybox FBs.

    Chinese homebuyers refuse to pay mortgages on unfinished apartments

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/economy/china-property-crisis-homebuyers-bad-debt-intl-hnk/index.html

    Hong Kong (CNN Business)China’s real estate crisis is escalating, raising concerns about growing risks in the banking system.

    Desperate homebuyers across dozens of cities are refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes, according to state media reports and economists at international banks.

    In China, real estate firms are allowed to sell homes before completing them, and customers have to start repaying mortgages before they are in possession of the new property. These funds are used to finance construction by the developers.

  42. “There will be no nuclear Iran. This is not only a threat to Israel, but to the world.” —Brandon writing a check with his mouth that he can’t cash with his ä$$.

    Then he’ll go suck-up to Mohammed bin Salman.

  48. Two weeks to flatten the curve:

    “Lucky Lopez is a car dealer who has been in the business for about 20 years. In recent meetings with bankers, where he bids on repossessed vehicles before they go to auction, he has noticed some common characteristics of the defaulted loans. Most of the loans on recently repossessed cars originated during 2020 and 2021, whereas origination dates are normally scattered because people fall on hard times at different times; loan-to-value ratios, or the amount financed relative to the value of the vehicle, are around 140%, versus a more normal 80%; and many of the loans were extended to buyers who had temporary pops in income during the pandemic. Those monthly incomes fell—sometimes by half—as pandemic stimulus programs stopped, and now they look even worse on an inflation-adjusted basis and as the prices of basics in particular are climbing.

    Part of the problem is that some consumers’ incomes were temporarily high as the pandemic brought about debt forbearance, pandemic stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and, in some cases, forgiven loans from the Paycheck Protection Program. Lopez says he recently bought a Bentley, McLaren and two Aston Martins—all purchased by buyers using PPP money as down payments, and all repossessed after few or no monthly payments.Another recent acquisition: a Silverado repossessed from a borrower with a solid 700 credit score who made two payments.
    Banks’ auto lending standards, meanwhile, went out the window, and then lenders jumped on the bandwagon of overpaying for cars, Lopez says. “Everybody thought the free gravy train would never end,” Lopez says.
    Now, he says he has never seen so many people making $2,500 a month owing $1,000 a month in car payments. That’s about double the maximum portion of income many financial advisors recommend allocating toward a car payment. “The idea that the economy is strong? Anyone who is actually doing business sees things are not strong,” says Lopez. “We had a housing bubble in 2008, and now we have an auto bubble.”

    https://archive.ph/Qdstd

    “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

    1. he says he has never seen so many people making $2,500 a month owing $1,000 a month in car payments

      Sounds like there will soon be a bumper crop of used cars. It’s about time.

    2. “Now, he says he has never seen so many people making $2,500 a month owing $1,000 a month in car payments.”

      This is likely due to the fed buying the bank’s existing non-performing auto loan debt at par to stimulate auto sales. Same goes for revolving debt prior to the large national holidays, which keeps the economic music playing. All this debt is first rolled into bonds so that Wall street gets a cut of the action too.

      Bankers are not stupid, and neither are their shareholders.

    3. “A 30k millionaire is a person, usually a guy, who makes around 30k a year, usually from working at a window tinting shop, loan office, or an occupation that does not by any means require a college degree. With his pitiful a income, he spends it all on bottles of champagne at clubs, a boat,a nice car, and sometimes a 3-day trip to Vegas, only to be left with nothing in his account by overdraft fees and possibly a pending loan.”

      https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=30k

  50. Democrats – members of a criminal enterprise masquerading as a political party – should never be placed in positions of trust or authority.

    Woke Vegas judge faces calls to quit for telling criminal: ‘I don’t want to be where the cops are because I don’t know if I’m going to walk away alive’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11013781/Woke-Las-Vegas-judge-faces-calls-quit-saying-not-walk-away-cops-alive.html

    A woke Las Vegas judge is facing calls from a police union to resign after brazenly telling a criminal in her courtroom she didn’t know if she would ‘walk away alive’ from cops.

    Judge Erika Ballou told a defendant that he should have walked away from officers, after being arrested for committing battery against an officer in Nevada while on probation.

    Footage of the exchange shared by KLAS shows Judge Ballou, who is black, saying: ‘You’re the one making the decisions not to walk away from cops. You’re a black man in America.”

  52. Learn Why the NY Times Published a Puff Piece on Alleged Jan 6 Provocateur Ray Epps

    Infowars.com
    July 14th 2022, 5:27 pm

    Dr. Darren Beattie of Revolver.news joins The Alex Jones Show to break down how the recent NYT’s puff piece on Ray Epps protects the establishment’s official narrative of the Jan. 6 protest.

    “The Ray Epps story doesn’t add up,” Beattie told Jones Thursday. “In order to get in front of this, I think this [NYT puff piece] is the opening throw of a massive damage-control campaign that’s going to attempt to make any mention of Ray Epps in any context that contradicts the official narrative so toxic as to become impossible.”

    “Ray Epps is the smoking gun of the entire ‘Fedsurrection,’” continued Beattie. “If it turns out Ray Epps was not an authentic actor on that day, but rather was acting according to a plan that was given to him by some third party … the entire establishment narrative on January 6th collapses in one fell swoop.”

    Watch & share the full explosive interview below:

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/learn-why-the-ny-times-published-a-puff-piece-on-alleged-jan-6-provocateur-ray-epps/

  53. Globalism 101: UN To Investigate Ohio Police Shooting Of Black Man

    by Kelen McBreen
    July 14th 2022, 2:07 pm

    A United Nations group is set to independently investigate the Akron, Ohio police shooting of Jayland Walker after officers shot him around 60 times as he ran from them on June 27.

    The newly created UN group, formed in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death, is called the “International Independent Expert Mechanism to Advance Racial Justice and Equality in Law Enforcement.”

    On December 16, 2021, the President of the Human Rights Council appointed three individuals to serve as heads of the Expert Mechanism group.

    Former justice of the Constitutional Court of South Africa Yvonne Mokgoro, former NYPD Deputy Commissioner of Equity and Inclusion Dr. Tracie Keesee, and professor of human rights law Juan Méndez are the group leaders.

    The death of Walker, a 25-year-old black man, is currently being investigated by the Ohio Bureau of Criminal Investigation.

    The UN group says it will begin its investigation after the state’s internal inspection is finished.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/globalism-101-un-to-investigate-ohio-police-shooting-of-black-man/

  54. They’re baaaaaack!

    Los Angeles County reached a “high” level of COVID-19 infections on Thursday, according to public health officials, meaning a mask mandate could be imposed in two weeks as the highly transmissible Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 make waves across the country.

    And here comes The Steal 2.0

    1. No second round.

      Maybe if the vaccines had performed better (they don’t), and too much economic damage was done.

      1. I don’t know anyone who is sick right now. The only person I know who had Omicron is a multiply jabbed Bay Aryan colleague.

        Yet LA wants to reimpose a mask mandate. I’ll bet before Summer is over every major metro will have one again.

        1. Yeah, I could see the mask thing, again, but shutting down everything is behind us.

          Both of my kids caught BA.5 in San Jose two weeks ago, out of action for 10-days, and both of them are athletic and otherwise healthy.

          2. How do you know the bug’s type

            It’s an assumption based on which variant is currently in circulation. My family had it over the Fourth of July weekend. I’m still coughing.

          3. out of action for 10-days

            Hubby was sick for 3 days. 12yo son about 1.5 days. One of many problems with the jabs is immune imprinting, a phenomenon whereby initial exposure to one virus strain effectively primes B cell memory and limits the development of memory B cells and neutralizing antibodies against new minor variant strains of the virus.

          4. “How do you know the bug’s type and were they jabbed and boosted?”

            The kids caught it from Grandma in San Jose who was vaccinated, but not boosted due to arthritis complications and family history of lupus. She was fully tested, and given paxlovid.

            The kids were vaccinated and 3rd booster, but it didn’t help if at all. Both were sick (feeling lousy) for 7 to 10 days, but are feeling better now. However, both still test positive, so no return to work, yet. Both employers mandate the vaccinations despite not preventing anything. Daughter is being paid, but losing sick days. Son is losing money, and the job if he doesn’t test negative soon.

          5. Forgot, my un-vaccinated brother visited them for dinner, and he didn’t catch anything. Go figure?

          6. Forgot, my un-vaccinated brother visited them for dinner, and he didn’t catch anything. Go figure?

            I have never been vaccinated, have been around multiple vaxxed people who were sick with the woohoo, and have never caught a thing.

  55. The market meltdown threatening pensions for millions of Americans
    By Nicole Goodkind, CNN Business
    Updated 1:06 PM EDT, Thu July 14, 2022

    New York CNN Business —

    American public pension funds are facing serious challenges that threaten the retirement plans for millions of US state and local government employees.

    Pension plans remained severely underfunded during the 11-year bull market that followed the Great Recession. The plunge toward insolvency and high-return markets led fund managers to take on risky bets in hope of staying afloat. Now, the recent selloff has left funds struggling to keep up with their future obligations.

    The 100 largest public pension funds in the United States had been funded at just 78.6% of their total obligations at the close of the second quarter, down from 85.5% at the end of 2021 according to analysis by Milliman, an actuarial and consulting firm. The funds lost a whopping $220 billion between March and April alone as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled markets.

    Public pensions are borrowing increasing sums to meet their payout obligations. Nearly $13 billion in pension obligation bonds were sold in 2021, more than in the past five years combined. Now, they’re taking on more risk by investing that leveraged money.

    The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), which manages the largest public pension fund in the United States, with about $440 billion in assets under management, began leveraging some of its debt this month.

    “We need every arrow in the quiver we can get, and private debt is one of the critical ones,” said Dan Bienvenue, CalPERS’ deputy chief investment officer. “There isn’t a no-risk choice.”

    The Teacher Retirement System of Texas, the country’s fifth-largest public pension fund, has also used leverage funds since 2019.

    Leveraging can help multiply market gains in bull markets, but it can also increase losses during the bear times.
    …
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/investing/pensions-markets-unfunded/index.html

    1. “The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), which manages the largest public pension fund in the United States, with about $440 billion in assets under management, began leveraging some of its debt this month.”

      What exactly does that mean?

    2. Begs the question, where does lefty Gavin Newsom find the money to support the illegal aliens’ services?

      1. Currently, from all that money-printing from the federal government who handed out massive checks to each state. Moving forward it will come via taxes, fees and charges.

  56. Are you worried that a slowdown in investment banking might result in a much deeper slump in the stock market than anyone is currently anticipating?

    1. The Financial Times
      Investment Banking
      Investment banking slowdown sparks fears of Wall Street belt-tightening
      Some firms are dragging their feet on recruitment and telegraphing lower pay
      A Wall Street sign
      A drop-off in dealmaking has left executives grappling with whether to reduce staffing levels
      Joshua Franklin and Imani Moise in New York, and Stephen Morris in London 35 minutes ago

      Disappointing earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley have set the stage for a tense summer on Wall Street as bank executives grapple with whether to reduce staffing levels.

      A decline in investment banking fees had always been expected this year after a record haul in 2021, but bankers were still hoping for an above-average performance, telling investors as recently as January that deal pipelines were healthy.

      However, the slowdown has been worse than anticipated. Results on Thursday from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley failed to meet analyst expectations in large part because of a dearth of equity issuance in 2022. The downturn follows a rush of initial public offerings and listings by special purpose acquisition companies last year.

      Morgan Stanley chief executive James Gorman told analysts the bank’s “ultimate weapon” to manage a slowdown is pay. The firm said it had cut pay and bonuses by 16 per cent year-on-year in the division that includes its investment bank. JPMorgan said the equivalent expense line at its corporate and investment bank fell 2 per cent in the second quarter.

      Banks have so far been hesitant to consider broad headcount reductions to match the decline in deal flow, citing the need for sustained investment in their franchises to retain talent and maintain market share. But tepid demand might force their hand, said Chris Marinac, director of research at Janney Montgomery Scott.

      “Putting a positive face on it for today can work, but that doesn’t last for ever,” he said, adding that cost-cutting programmes could be communicated to staff in the autumn.

      Bankers are already reporting early signs of belt-tightening.

      Some teams at Goldman Sachs this summer have stopped taking interns out for team drinks to save money, according to people familiar with the matter. The bank has also paused hiring some replacements for bankers that have left this year, the people said.

      Meanwhile, a few prospective hires at Credit Suisse have been waiting several weeks for their formal offer letters, according to people involved in the hiring process.

      Credit Suisse and Goldman declined to comment.

      “We might see freezes in some skill sets or some areas where the banks no longer have a need for additional talent,” said Jan Bellens, global banking and capital markets sector leader at EY.
      …

  57. The Financial Times
    Markets Briefing US Treasury bonds
    US Treasury curve most inverted since 2000
    Phenomenon where two-year yield is higher than the 10-year has preceded every recession for past 50 years
    A shopper checks a carton of eggs inside a grocery store in San Francisco. The annual rate of US consumer price inflation hit 9.1% last month, data show
    Naomi Rovnick in London and Nicholas Megaw in New York yesterday

    A closely watched signal of recession risk in Treasury markets on Wednesday hit its most extreme level in more than 20 years, as hotter than expected inflation data fuelled investor bets that the Federal Reserve will aggressively raise interest rates.

    The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is particularly sensitive to short-term rate expectations, rose 0.09 percentage points to 3.13 per cent after data showed the annual rate of US consumer price inflation hit 9.1 per cent last month. Yields rise when prices fall.

    At the same time, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 0.05 percentage points to 2.91 per cent. The two-year yield has been higher than the 10-year yield since last week, known as an inverted yield curve, a phenomenon that has preceded every recession for the past 50 years.

    Wednesday’s move brought the spread between the two to its most inverted level since 2000.

    The unexpectedly high US inflation figure — economists had forecast a rate of 8.8 per cent — increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by at least 0.75 percentage points at its next policy meeting later this month.

    “While our base case remains for a [0.75 percentage point] hike from the Fed in July, we cannot rule out the possibility of a larger [1 percentage point] hike or additional [0.75 percentage point] hikes beyond this month,” analysts at Citi said in a research note.

    “The acceleration of the monetary cycle is not yet behind us, and we will have to wait until 2023 to see the Fed consider a pause,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
    …

    1. Wasn’t 2000 around the time of the tech stock implosion? I was hanging out in a coffee bar with a teevee that summer. Every day, the main financial story was CR8R. I recall being quite astonished how the crash played out for month after month…very much like the situation underway, in fact.

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