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We’re Going To See A Lot Of People Jump Ship

A report from Business Insider. “‘The uptick that we have seen in cancellations has really been in the last 30 to 60 days, and the leading driver has been buyers’ remorse,’ said Ryan Marshall, CEO of PulteGroup. ‘I think a big part of that comes from buyers that made a buying decision during the run up in interest rates, and as talk of recession increased, their remorse and fears have also increased with it.'”

“D.R. Horton is facing a similar problem. Although the company ended its third quarter with 56,400 homes in inventory – up 19% from 2021 — nearly a quarter of its contracts fell through in the three months ending in June. The cancellation rate of 24% increased by 7 percentage points from just a year ago. ‘Toward the middle of June, we got a 100 basis point increase in long term rates over about a three or four day period,’ said David Auld, the company’s CEO, on the earnings call. ‘I think that impacted cancellations.'”

From Market Place. “‘It does feel like someone just switched the light off,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors. Micki Maynard listed her mom’s condo in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in early May. ‘The market we had expected to compete in literally vanished in a week.’ That condo is still on the market, and Maynard has had to lower the price and improve the property to attract buyers — concessions she didn’t expect to make just a few months ago.”

“Josh Landen started house hunting in the suburbs of Tampa, Florida, in early March. So, when another buyer backed out of purchasing a new home under construction, Landen scooped it up. He signed a contract in April. But while he waited for construction to finish, he noticed a shift in the building company’s promotional emails. ‘The incentives have been increasing, and prices were decreasing.’ He talked the company into letting him cancel his initial contract so he could take advantage of the new deals. ‘We got a, frankly, a nicer house in a better subdivision for less money,’ he said.”

From Market Watch. “Sellers slashed home prices in June in areas that saw red-hot price appreciation earlier in the pandemic, including Reno, Nev., Austin, Texas, and Boise, Idaho, according to Realtor.co. Phoenix, Ariz. was a major hotspot earlier in the pandemic. Now, there’s a surge in homes being listed on the market. ‘Sellers are worried. They missed the peak of the market,’ Phoenix real-estate agent Kristy Ryan said. ‘So they’re putting their homes for sale as fast as they can, while their properties can still fetch a high price. The bidding war days are gone on most homes,’ Ryan added. ‘If the seller needs to sell, they’re slashing their prices to get a buyer in there.'”

“Boise, Idaho, another hot market like Phoenix, is also seeing a big share of homes going on sale. No. 6 on the Realtor.com list is Ogden, Utah, where 27.4% of listings are getting a price cut. The median home list price is $580,000. Sacramento, Calif., Colorado Springs, Colo., Evansville, Ind., and Medford, Ore., round out the bottom of the top 10 list. Aside from Evansville, where the median home list price was $246,000, the other spots all had median list prices of more than half a million dollars. A quarter of homes in all the cities had their prices slashed, according to Realtor.com.”

From 12 News in Arizona. “All over the Valley, a growing number of ‘for sale’ signs signal a change in the housing market. According to data from the Cromford Report, there is a 156% increase in the number of homes on the market compared to last year. The increase in available homes is the most the Valley has seen since before the Great Recession. ‘That is something we have not seen in a very long time,’ said Tina Tamboer, a senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report.”

“According to Tamboer, most of the homes on the market do not belong to your traditional family. Instead, the majority are either new construction or owned by companies like Opendoor and Offerpad. ‘I would say most of the inventory we are seeing is coming from an investor base,’ Tamboer said. ‘It’s really important for buyers to understand that the market has changed so quickly they need to shift their mindset as well,’ Tamboer said. ‘The people who realize the market has shifted first will be the ones who win.'”

CBS Boston in Massachusetts. “‘When I hear that the Fed has raised the rate, it makes me feel like somebody has punched me in the stomach,’ said Billerica realtor Curtis Knight. ‘Up until December when the rates were 3.1, it was the wild wild West. The phone rang off the hook every day. Now it’s very, very, different. Hardly any calls,’ Knight said.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Mr. Cooper Group Inc., one of the largest servicers and originators of home loans in the nation, saw its earnings and revenues sink in the second quarter as demand for mortgages plummeted. That led the company to cut almost 700 jobs since the start of this year. Coppell-based Mr. Cooper laid off 420 staff members in the second quarter and 250 in the first quarter, mostly employees who worked in originations, the company confirmed to The Dallas Morning News.”

“A Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notice filed with the state of California shows 120 of those cuts were at Mr. Cooper’s office in Santa Ana, Calif. Mr. Cooper had about 8,000 U.S. employees as of the second quarter. Mr. Cooper’s earnings were down 77%, from $658 million in the first quarter to $151 million in the second, the company reported Wednesday. Its revenues sank 43%, from $1.05 billion in the first quarter to $599 million in the second.”

From Fox 7 Austin in Texas. “‘We’re no longer seeing 40 offers sent in on the first day,’ said Cord Shiflet with the Austin Board of Realtors. But for those who recently bought homes well over asking price, the assessment is not as clear-cut. ‘That’s going to be a gut check question for me. And I’m going to say I haven’t seen anybody lose money on houses. I’ve seen sellers that had it in their head, hey, you know, we can just crush it on this market compared to what we can get a year ago. And they’re having to get those expectations more in line,’ said Shiflet.”

“A house located near McNeil and Parmer Lane is one of several going up for sale this week. The owners hope for a quick sale, even though they are aware the real estate market has slowed down. ‘Feeling very optimistic in regard to my son’s house because of the location. He is essentially catty corner from the new Apple campus that’s starting to fill up,’ said Ray Stawowy. ‘If it came to the point that I don’t get the price I want. I’m in a position that we would just keep it as an investment property and a rental.'”

Las Vegas Weekly. “In Southern Nevada, prices for existing homes have only recently started to drop slightly after a long run of monthly increases. ‘We are seeing some discounting from sellers now, which we weren’t seeing a few months ago. In those situations, sellers are often trying to keep buyers in their contracts. Sellers are beginning to pay some closing costs again,’ says Tony Humphrey, vice president of mortgage lending for One Nevada Credit Union.”

“One of the country’s biggest mortgage lenders, Wells Fargo reported in a quarterly earnings call earlier this month that fees collected from its mortgage banking operation fell from $1.3 billion during the second quarter of 2021 to $287 million during the second quarter of 2022. Matt Haugh, a Las Vegas area Realtor, has seen a definite downshift in the market lately. ‘A lot of buyers are on the sidelines waiting to see what’s going to happen,’ he says. ‘We have even seen many of the institutional buyers and hedge funds that buy properties with cash canceling contracts.'”

10 News in California. “For the last couple of years, San Diego’s home prices were skyrocketing, sellers were getting multiple offers well over their asking price, and ‘for sale’ signs were quickly removed. ‘We could sell a property in a weekend. Do a quick open house and we’re done, in escrow,’ said Sheri Jones, broker/owner of local S.A.K.K Realty. ‘Interest rates were in the two percent, easily, lender credits- a buyer can get pretty much whatever they needed, and a seller could get top dollar. I’m saying we were seeing $100k over asking, $200k over asking.'”

“But recently, there’s been a noticeable shift, and Jones has seen it firsthand. ‘With interest rates, we’re seeing anywhere from 5 to 6 percent on Conventional or FHA, we’re seeing homes stay on the market longer, we’re seeing prices drop,’ she said. ‘I actually had a meeting with my lender this morning and she gets a phone call, ‘buyer’s pulling out,’ she said. ‘And I’m seeing that as well, buyers are getting cold feet, and buyers are saying ‘I’m going to wait, and see what happens’. I know I lost a lot of buyers because they were already at the top of their budget and to see a huge increase like that, they just couldn’t afford it anymore.'”

“Buyers are able to negotiate, ‘Sellers are offering credit for closing costs, and then also they’re offering to pay for their buyer’s buydown to have a cheaper rate for them,’ she said. Jones said she’s telling sellers to be patient, and not price their homes too aggressively. ‘Let’s do maybe $30 to $50k under and also expect to get a lowball offer,’ she said.”

The San Francisco Business Times in California. “More homes are for sale at reduced prices in the East Bay, but it appears fewer buyers are willing to take the plunge at this point, and residential real estate brokers are now feeling the pinch of economic turmoil, especially at the higher end of the market. House hunters across Alameda and Contra Costa counties are recoiling and have little motivation to buy, Abio Properties partner and agent Linnette Edwards told me, emphasizing that the market is smack in the middle of a wild price correction with homes selling at $2 million seeing the most volatility.”

“She told me that pending sales for upper-end homes in that price point and above dropped last month from the prior month in both counties to the tune of 300%, noting that Contra Costa County has five months of inventory on the market right now, while in Alameda County, it’s almost three months of inventory. ‘In my 20 years of selling real estate, this is the fastest I’ve seen a market adjust down,’ she said. ‘Talking with other agents, some homes are receiving multiple offers and all the offers are below the listing price.'”

“The most current real estate numbers from the California Association of Realtors from May to June reveal that Alameda County saw an 8.1% drop in median sales prices for single-family homes while Contra Costa recorded a 4.7% month-over-month decline. Edwards told me that those numbers don’t even reflect the steeper price adjustments happening now, which will be evident in next month’s data, and that the pandemic gains have nearly evaporated with homes from Lafayette to Richmond now routinely going for hundreds of thousands under what they would have fetched in April.”

“‘The market has spoken and now buyers don’t feel comfortable with the pricing because simply put, inflation and interest rates have been very blunt and it impacted their willingness to buy. So they are willing to wait,’ she said. Condos continue to sit on the market longer than single-family homes, but that serves to reason since historically, condos are the first to drop and the last to appreciate, she said. But that’s also where some of the biggest deals could potentially be found. ‘I know it sounds like a real estate agent thing to say, but honestly, I think it’s a great opportunity to buy a condo because they’ve dropped in price and they’re sitting there, so that could be an investment,’ she said.”

From CTV News in Canada. “Three new townhomes on Nelson Street in Esquimalt, B.C., are weeks away from hitting the market. The question for the developer is – how will they be priced? ‘The market is changing, we are feeling it,’ said Xeniya Vins, who is developing the properties. ‘We probably would have been better off price-wise if we did pre-sell.'”

“‘In the last few months it’s been like someone has turned off the taps in terms of sales,’ said Marko Juras, a realtor with Fair Realty. In Victoria, sales are running at a 20-year low month over month. Meanwhile, condo prices have fallen six to eight per cent since the peak in March. ‘Single family homes, depending on the price range, are down anywhere from eight to 13 per cent,’ said Juras.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “‘We’re aware that the storm is brewing and likely to get worse,’ warns Toronto-based real estate lawyer Mark Morris.Today credit has tightened, extensions are rife and defaults are rising, says the principal with LegalClosing.ca. The process of buying and selling was ‘very clean’ when there was an abundance of money flowing through the system, Mr. Morris explains, but now that stream has slowed to a trickle. Some buyers appeal to sellers for more time to come up with the financing they need to close a deal, and defaults are also rising, says the lawyer, who has 15 to 20 problem files on his desk on a given day. Purchasers planning to rely on a home equity line of credit, or HELOC, to buy an additional property are finding that avenue closed.”

“Mr. Morris is carefully watching the new build segment, where he sees peril ahead. He points to the many people who signed a contract with a builder before construction on a new project began. A number of those buyers count on being able to sell the contract to another party without ever taking possession of the property. ‘That market is now illiquid,’ Mr. Morris says. ‘Buyers will find they cannot assign the product away if they can’t afford it.'”

“Some homeowners have let things slide to the extent that they have defaulted on mortgage payments, received letters from the lender, and eventually had the bank foreclose. ‘We have people come to us who have already been locked out of their house by the sheriff,’ says Samantha Brookes, chief executive of Mortgages of Canada. ‘They leave it until the last minute.’ She figures that more homeowners are going to be facing financial challenges as rates continue to climb and more mortgages come up for renewal. ‘I do believe by September or October we’re going to see a lot of people jump ship.'”

“Mr. Morris sees significant risk in the heavy debt loads that many Canadians have accumulated in recent years. People have borrowed against their home equity to pay for major expenditures in the past, but the practice of drawing HELOCs for everyday expenses has accelerated in recent years, he says. ‘People started using houses as bank accounts five or six years ago,’ he says, pointing out that people who borrow to maintain their lifestyle continually need to borrow more. ‘I’m not certain people appreciate how much homes have become part of salary,’ Mr. Morris says.”

Channel News Asia. “China’s deepening property bust is sending shock waves through the nation’s 400-million-strong middle class, upending the belief that real estate is a surefire way to build wealth. Now, as property developments stall across the country and house prices fall, many Chinese homeowners are slashing spending, postponing marriage and other life decisions, and, in a growing number of cases, withholding mortgage payments on unfinished homes.”

“Peter, for one, has given up on starting his own business and buying a BMW 5 series after construction on his 2 million yuan (US$300,000) home in Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province, was halted by China Aoyuan Group. He is now saddled with a mortgage that’s eating up 90 per cent of his disposable income on a home he may never see. ‘I know every investment comes with a risk and you pay the price for your own choices,’ Peter said, asking not to have his full name or any personal details used for fear of reprisal. ‘But homeowners aren’t the ones to blame and shouldn’t bear the consequences.'”

“Hong Hao, a former China strategist at Bocom International Holdings, said the mortgage refusals will suppress house prices and sales, creating a negative wealth effect that will ripple through the economy. ‘I don’t think it’s a good bet,’ Hong said of the property market. ‘Many have gotten used to thinking home prices will never fall. But a paradigm shift is here.'”

“Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist, said the long property cycle had turned. ‘The high and rising prices were justified on growth, that is, one day income will catch up,’ Xie said. ‘That is no more.’ Many buyers, in particular the elderly, don’t have the luxury to wait. Liu, a retiree in Jingdezhen, couldn’t qualify for a bank loan and used his life savings of about 800,000 yuan on an apartment with an elevator. He has made two visits to the construction site and found no sign of activity. ‘The best we can hope for is that the government can fix it,’ said Liu, who lives on a pension of about 3,500 yuan a month. ‘But let’s be honest, even that seems like a forlorn hope.'”

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This Post Has 121 Comments

  2. From the 7:34 video above:

    Real Estate Market Shift is HERE 2022 Southern CaliforniaJul 27, 2022 The real estate market in Southern California has shifted. The data is in and I am sharing it with you. Price reductions, longer days on the market for new listings, higher interest rates…these are signs a market turn is here in Los Angeles.

  3. ‘Liu, a retiree in Jingdezhen, couldn’t qualify for a bank loan and used his life savings of about 800,000 yuan on an apartment with an elevator. He has made two visits to the construction site and found no sign of activity’

    Liu, there is no apartment. There is no elevator. You’ve been schlonged.

  4. ‘It does feel like someone just switched the light off’

    Hey Larry: CLICK!

    ‘‘If it came to the point that I don’t get the price I want. I’m in a position that we would just keep it as an investment property and a rental’

    That’s right Ray, don’t be a doom and gloomer like Larry and give it away.

    1. I wonder if Larry has gotten a publisher for his book detailing the riches of real estate? You know, just like David Lereah in 2007.

  5. ‘‘Talking with other agents, some homes are receiving multiple offers and all the offers are below the listing price’

    That’s the spirit!

  6. Micki Maynard listed her mom’s condo in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in early May. ‘The market we had expected to compete in literally vanished in a week.’ That condo is still on the market, and Maynard has had to lower the price and improve the property to attract buyers — concessions she didn’t expect to make just a few months ago.”

    In a spinoff of the hilarious and wildly popular series“Meet The Cratertons”, watch a new cast of chronically broke home sellers snivel and bellyache in a new series titled “Tales Of Woe: The Plight Of DebtDonkeys”.

    Naples, FL Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Florida Leads Nation In Housing Price Declines

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/34109/market-trends/

    1. MB, I looked at US census data for both home prices and income not using any case-Schiller or Fed data. The median home price data from the census bureau is not significantly different from that of the St Louis Fed which you said was garbage.. Unless my second grade math is wrong I get a ratio of income to home price of about 3 using census bureau data only for the years 1965, 1975, and 1985.

      3. US census data for both home prices

        I think one thing you may have possibly missed is that these are not home sale prices. I believe they are survey results of “What’s your house worth”. It’s also only single unit, owner occupied, no mobile homes & etc. I think it’s also Median, not Average. For what it’s worth.

  7. “it makes me feel like somebody has punched me in the stomach,’ said Billerica realtor Curtis Knight.”

    Can we have more of this, please?

  8. Re: When I hear that the Fed has raised the rate, it makes me feel like somebody has punched me in the stomach,

    By contrast, they were perfectly happy when they were being goosed by the same Fed at another part of their anatomy . . .

    2. Any thoughts on how long it will take for Wall Street to realize that housing is CR8Ring?

      Maybe it’s different this time, but last time around, it turned out that Wall Street was deep into long bets on housing. When home prices started plummeting, the wheels fell off the bus at Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Washington Mutual, and many other firms that gambled wrecklessly on the mistaken belief that real estate would always go up.

  12. Orange County Coastal Real Estate Market Update – What happened in the month of June 2022
    Jul 27, 2022 June is Over and we are now into July 2022. So here is your Orange County Coastal Real Estate Market Update for the cities of Newport Beach, Newport Coast, and Corona del Mar. Let’s take a look at INVENTORY- SALES PRICE, DAYS ON MARKET, in Newport Beach, Newport Coast, and Corona Del Mar, and see what the trends are telling us for the remainder of the 2nd half of 2022.

    00:00 Orange County Coastal Real Estate Market Update
    00:56 New Listings in June 2022
    01:25 Under Contract June 2022
    02:10 Homes Sold in June 2022
    02:33 Days on Market in June 2022
    03:04 Total Active Inventory in June 2022
    03:46 Average List Price of Homes Listed in June 2022
    04:05 Tune in Next Month for Your Orange County Coastal Real Estate Market Update

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iqYn0MPM_8

    4:32.

    1. What ‘Kiwi of The Coast’ conveniently forgets to mention is that holding costs (exclusive of mortgage) rates are jumping significantly.

      Water, electric power, insurance, HOA dues, all up.

      Finding skilled labor for home maintenance is also difficult (if you don’t do it yourself).

      Add in ever increasing gridlock traffic in these areas.

      Me thinks we are close to the breaking point in which the dam collapses. Not everyone in this town is making $1mm a year.

      1. Oh, and did I mention homelessness?

        It is now almost impossible not to see homeless in any of these areas. (exception would be behind gated communities). However, most of NB, CDM is not gated.. Newport Coast is a little different, (lots of gated areas because it is newer).

  13. May 2022 Austin Texas Market Stats
    Jul 27, 2022 Austin-Round Rock MSA begins return to pre-2020 housing market activity
    AUSTIN, TX — According to the Austin Board of REALTORS® June and Mid-Year 2022 Central Texas Housing Market Report, a triple-digit gain in active listings year over year pushed housing inventory levels over two months in the Austin-Round Rock MSA for the first time since November 2019.

    Combined with a dip in residential home sales activity and slowing pace of home price growth in June, the data indicates a decelerating Austin housing market that is beginning to return to pre-2020 normalcy.

    Last month across the MSA, residential home sales declined 20.3% year over year to 3,441 closed sales as the median price rose 13%, setting a record of $537,475 for the month of June. Sales dollar volume dropped 9.9% to $2,301,865,479 while new listings jumped 19.6% to 6,160 listing.
    The number of homes on the market skyrocketed 217.8% to 7,090 active listings, causing housing inventory to jump to 2.1 months of inventory, up 1.5 months from last June. While pending sales dropped 31.6% to 2,887 transactions, homes still went under contract quickly, spending an average of 18 days on the market or four more days than June 2021.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIw3ih0teiM

    1:45.

    1. It’s okay Ben. Austin/Round Rock will come back strong regardless of interest rates because everybody there makes $250k a year.

      Can’t believe Taylor is going through the roof. That was a cow town when I lived there. Build a Samsung fab and everybody is rich, rich, rich!

      1. I left Austin in 2000. It was never a money center up to then. That was Dallas and Houston.

    1. These are impressive stats in such a short period and most people haven’t even gotten the memo yet. This time next year (and the year after that) is going to be very eye opening. I expect to see companies like Opendoor go belly up with their entire portfolio rotting in the sun because no one wants it. The discounts are going to be very big in some of these cities. Most of it made no sense at the old rates but at todays rates these shacks in the desert are a sad joke. We have witnessed a true mania.

    2. Sounds like priced out California renters may soon seek refuge in Phoenix. The resulting loss of demand for California housing in turn could relieve pressure on California renters by lowering rents for them.

      Falling housing prices are generally good for the economy, as they help bring down inflation and rents, and leave households with more money to spend on other essential consumer goods.

  18. Ok so they are lining up in California to get the Monkey pox vaccine. This follows the Corrupt WHO declaring Monkey pox a emergency of International Concern. The majority on the advisory committee to WHO advised not to declare such concern, but WHO Director declared it anyway.

    Basically the monkey pox vaccine is the smallpox vaccine. In the 70’s this vaccine was stopped basically because it had a lot of side effects.
    They have announced that anyone taking this vaccine currently is part of a trial actually. I wonder how many people waiting in lines will be informed of that fact.
    The vaccine is known for its shedding properties for starters. They knew that families of the people that surrounded a person that took this vaccine were getting sick . They have known for decades that this vaccine had very bad side effects , including getting life threatening sickness. The immune compromised are very subject to the ill effects of this vaccine.
    Again, they are using the good old PCR test to test for monkey pox. Some say that shingles and other skin diseases could be in play here , as people have been compromised by the side affects from the Covid vaccines.
    Its not a sexually transmitted disease, but why the spin about the gay men .
    Anyway, we are seeing the formation stage of the next global pandemic , where lockdowns , masks, and toxic vaccines will no doubt be the agenda.
    Of course way before the first case of monkey pox , they simulated a practice run on monkey pox, while Bill Gates predicted a pox pandemic also. No different than the practice run on Covid type pandemic that occurred a couple months before the Covid
    outbreak.
    Since monkey pox is a very rare type disease, very odd that would be the one simulated . Monkey pox doesn’t have a high death rate , but if your immune compromised your more vulnerable to death by any disease.
    So, just some facts I found out yesterday to pass on .

    2. “we are seeing the formation stage of the next global pandemic”

      Maybe in some of the cuck countries, but here in USA we are done with these unelected globalist bureaucrats.

      Nuremburg Trials v2.0 haven’t even started yet, but when they do, it’s gonna take a hundred miles of rope to hang them all.

      The only good globalist is a dead globalist ☠️

    3. Ok so they are lining up in California to get the Monkey pox vaccine.

      From what I have just read, they only have 10,000 doses. That should be enough for one of the “proud” nabes in San Francisco.

      1. I heard that Biden purchased 13 million doses of monkey pox vaccines three or four months ago.. So the tax payers pay for these vaccine even if they don’t get used.
        I don’t know how they have altered the new version of this vaccine , but they apparently are skipping trials . .
        So, its official now that Big pharmacy gets to avoid trials on any new version of vaccines under so called emergencies.

        Also California is about ready to declare mask mandates again in some major Counties. So, combined with fake Climate Change emergency spin , its round 2 of the take over the world plot that was pre planned by a bunch of psycho control freaks.

        1. Here is what I found.

          Amid concerns the government has not responded quickly enough to the nation’s rapidly spreading monkeypox outbreak, the Biden administration announced more than 780,000 doses of vaccine will be available Friday.

          Those doses will add to the 300,000 doses distributed this month, bringing the total to 1.1 million.

          The federal government also ordered 5.5 million doses be made from supplies in manufacturer storage, which will be ready in 2023.

          5 million doses should be enough for the pride community, so they can keep the bathhouses open.

        2. take over the world plot

          It’s actually kind of funny to think of taking over the world with mask mandates.

          If they’re giving the smallpox vaccine to the sheep, there is no need for safety trials. It was suspended decades ago for adverse effects.

  19. Since 2014 Cargill, DuPont and Monsanto — bought seventeen million hectares of Ukraine agricultural land.   That’s sixty percent (60%) of the total agricultural land in Ukraine!

  20. Statements like this: If it came to the point that I don’t get the price I want. I’m in a position that we would just keep it as an investment property and a rental.’”

    Are why we are nowhere near a bottom. Not even close.

    2. Are why we are nowhere near a bottom. Not even close.

      Heck, it’s not even the first inning. It’s still the pre-game show.

    3. “I can’t sell here, I’m losing too much”

      Let me know when they’re howling “just get me out at any price now now now!” I’ll wait.

  21. ‘those numbers don’t even reflect the steeper price adjustments happening now, which will be evident in next month’s data, and that the pandemic gains have nearly evaporated with homes from Lafayette to Richmond now routinely going for hundreds of thousands under what they would have fetched in April’

    Thornberg:

    via GIPHY

  22. ‘lender credits- a buyer can get pretty much whatever they needed, and a seller could get top dollar. I’m saying we were seeing $100k over asking, $200k over asking’

    Winnahs! Past Sheri, met present Sheri:

    ‘Let’s do maybe $30 to $50k under and also expect to get a lowball offer’

  23. ‘People started using houses as bank accounts five or six years ago,’ he says, pointing out that people who borrow to maintain their lifestyle continually need to borrow more. ‘I’m not certain people appreciate how much homes have become part of salary’

    Now that’s some sound lending right there.

    1. It was shown right here on this blog 8 years ago that house debtors were making their mortgage payments using HELOCs.

      1. “…this blog 8 years ago that house debtors were making their mortgage payments using HELOCs….”

        So much social pressure here in SoCal to be a pretend gazallionaire.

        Living a fake lifestyle with fake money.

  24. Was watching a video on food banks. The story is: demand is sky high but donations to food banks have collapsed, and warehouses are nearly empty. If these people pull the D lever in November, then they deserve to get it gooder and harder. Unfortunately, so will we.

    I was reading another article (in The Epoch Times) about Argentina. Apparently less than half the workforce there actually works and Argentina has a full blown Free Sh!t Army. Unfortunately for them the Argentinian Peso is not a reserve currency and inflation is expected to reach 100% by the end of the year. The government has indicated that the free cheese will stop and people will have to work. The Free Sh!t Army is not happy about this and have likened being told to “get a job” to Fascism.

    From the article:

    “The government expects us to work from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. for the same amount of money,” an outraged female Buenos Aires resident and piquetero lamented to reporters during a live news broadcast.

    When asked where how she’d been earning income for her household, the woman replied, “the government.”

    Other LatAm countries are also facing civil unrest. Something tells me the military juntas will be coming back.

      1. The sad thing is that everything that was gained in Chile has been frittered away. Their economy was the envy of LatAm. But no more, now they have elected socialists to run the country again. Wherever he is, Salvador Allende smiles.

        And Colombia has elected a communist government, which has promised to redistribute the wealth. I expect that Brazil’s next government will also be communist. And forget about sh!tholes like Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador.

        The caravans are going to be huge, non stop and will start as far south as Tierra del Fuego.

  25. ‘He is now saddled with a mortgage that’s eating up 90 per cent of his disposable income on a home he may never see’

    More sound lending!

    ‘I know every investment comes with a risk and you pay the price for your own choices,’ Peter said, asking not to have his full name or any personal details used for fear of reprisal. ‘But homeowners aren’t the ones to blame and shouldn’t bear the consequences’

    One of those things is not like the other Peter. But it was still cheaper than renting.

    Notice China is the only country in the world where: ‘asking not to have his full name or any personal details used for fear of reprisal’.

    1. ‘He is now saddled with a mortgage that’s eating up 90 per cent of his disposable income on a home he may never see’

      P.T. Barnum was right, there’s a svcker born every minute.

  28. Fed raised by 75 basis points. Mortgage rates dropped by 25 basis points.

    Can not compute.

      1. Not sure who “they” are, but “they” must be retarded. Many more rate hikes on the way, with another 75 basis points on the table for September. Powell said so.

    4. The Fed’s monetary policy interventions control short term interest rates.

      Long term Treasury yields are set by the market, unless they are manipulated by Quantitative Easing. Quantitative Tightening is increasing the market responsiveness of long-term Treasury yields.

      Mortgage rates correlate strongly with long-term Treasury yields. Right now, long-term Treasury yields are dipping, signalling an incipient recession. Mortgage rates are trending down in sync. Knife catchers may be tempted to buy houses on the rate decline, only to discover they caught themselves a falling knife going into a recession.

      2. an incipient recession. Mortgage rates are trending down in sync

        Seems kind of counter intuitive, cheaper shack loans because the market is headed for the crapper.

      3. Mortgage rates are trending down

        But are banks still lending? IIRC, Wells Fargo and another bank were cutting back on originations.

  29. Why should the National Guard be dispatched to assist Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned urban cesspools being inundated by Democrat-on-Arrival globalist imports?

    DC’s Democrat mayor calls in NATIONAL GUARD to deal with migrants: Bowser demands help to deal with hundreds of illegals who have been by bussed in from Texas and caused ‘humanitarian crisis’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11058949/DC-Mayor-Bowser-calls-NATIONAL-GUARD-deal-migrants-calling-tipping-point.html

    Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser is calling on the National Guard to be activated to help deal with the migration crisis in the nation’s capitol after Texas and Arizona launched an initiative sending asylum-seekers there.

    ‘The pace of arriving buses and the volume of arrivals have reached tipping points,’ Bowser wrote in a letter to the Biden administration. ‘Our collective response and service efforts have now become overwhelmed.’

    1. Funny how the metro area with the greatest concentration of wealth can’t cope with a few thousand illegals, but flyover is supposed to grab its ankles and say “please sir, could I have more?”

  30. Aussie cucks let their globalist Quisling regime sell off their power grid to Enron-like energy pirates who are now bending them over on utility rates. Gosh, I hope soaring energy costs don’t end up leaving you short on your mortgage payment, Aussie FBs.

    Power market soared to ‘unprecedented’ levels last quarter, with signs that will continue

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/power-market-soared-to-unprecedented-levels-last-quarter-with-signs-that-will-continue/news-story/d6be125ef6969cc5059057816ef3588a

    Australia’s power market soared to ‘unprecedented’ levels over the last three months and households are being warned it will continue.

  31. So it begins….

    Germany turns off the hot water: Hanover becomes first big city to ban hot water in public buildings in response to Russian gas crisis

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11058375/Germany-turns-hot-water-Hanover-ban-hot-water-response-Russian-gas-crisis.html

    The Germany city of Hanover has become the first big city in Europe to ban hot water and central heating in public buildings in response to Vladimir Putin’s weaponizing of gas supplies.

    The drastic step comes as Germans have been told to expect sky high electricity bills and sweeping gas rationing measures that will affect their day-to-day lives.

    1. President Trump called it and they laughed at him. I’m sure he’s smiling when he reads these stories. Schadenfreude indeed.

      1. ‘President Trump called it and they laughed at him. I’m sure he’s smiling when he reads these stories. Schadenfreude indeed’.

        But President Trump was against the peaceful deal between Germany and Russia because he wanted to have Germany depending on the US.

        And the Germans -(and actually all Europeans) laughed – and still laugh at Trump because they believe he is ‘a Stupid Clown’.

        And all of this doesn’t justify the Schadenfreude if one of your best friends (Germany) get’s hit by a horrific War Criminal with an energy war.

        On whose side are you guys?

        1. ‘On whose side are you guys?’

          You may not know we have a problem in the US. We have a government that is at war with the citizens. So “side” is not clear. For myself, I’m against the globalist scum. And that especially includes NATO. Fook NATO, they are globalist scum. So if you are counting on us to fund NATO prepare to be disappointed.

          I could ask you the same question: are you “with” the globalist scum who want to destroy nation states? Eliminate borders, sending jobs to the communists in China and Vietnam. Giving more power to the unelected globalist scum like the world bank, IMF, UN, WHO, etc. Are you “with” the unelected neocons, who have the blood of millions on their hands?

          The new division is globalist scum versus ordinary people who just want to live their lives in peace. And it’s not us that won’t back down. They chose a fight to the death, not us.

          1. ‘You may not know we have a problem in the US. We have a government that is at war with the citizens’.

            But right now only about half of America seems to be at war with the current government – and before about half was at war with the other government?
            And as some of the commenters here have mentioned ‘Civil War’ isn’t it pretty clear ‘the real problem’ is that Americans just can’t get along with each other anymore?

            And about ‘globalist scum’ who want to destroy nation states
            you know that in Europe all these States got together with the Idea of peaceful co-operation and there NEVER will be war again between countries like – for example Germany and France or the UK or any other combination you can think about. And this idea to put PEACE above ALL and any nationalistic interest worked very well in the last over seventy years – as in centuries before some Nationalist used to invade their neighbouring countries about every 30 years and killed everybody they could.

            And on the long run that just couldn’t go on – and about ‘sending jobs to the communists in China and Vietnam’ –
            Like the speculation with houses and real estate – it mainly was the decisions of some very, very greedy -(and stupid) ‘Individuals’ and ‘private corporations’. As you probably know – that for example the Nation of Germany kept for it’s own people nearly ALL of it’s well paying Jobs -(even if it made the ‘production’ for the corporations more expensive)
            But greedy US Corporation and Mega Rich Individuals thought otherwise and so Germany became one of the strongest ‘Production Nations’ while the US became the major Consumer Country.

            And so the new division actually is between People or Nations who take care of their own workers and citizens – and Nations who couldn’t care less if their people lose their peaceful existence.

            BUT – sorry – like with YOUR US housingbubbles you can’t blame some ‘globalist scum’ for it -(or just a little bit for the Chinese and Russian and other Speculators) who had helped to built the US bubbles.

            As globalistic ‘cheap money’ is never an excuse for any gamblers if they get addicted to gambling with houses.

            AND as the last bust took a lot of these Gamblers (global or local) – away – this Bust will do it again and it might be worth to find ways that it doesn’t happen again in a few years?

          2. ‘can’t get along with each other’

            I don’t watch TV. The people around me in the world seem to be getting along fine. We could use some rain of course. So I’m not sure what your perception is just from US TV and the internet. The majority of that stuff isn’t real. It’s constructed narratives.

          3. ‘So I’m not sure what your perception is just from US TV and the internet’.

            Just the perception of everybody in the World –
            who – for example is visiting the US – or watches what is happening in the US – or reads a blog like yours and reads what some of your commenters write.

            Did you ever read what commenters on your blog alone write about other Americans?

            Or it doesn’t mean anything – and it’s just getting rid of the frustration of everyday life in America?

          4. The people around me in the world seem to be getting along fine.

            Same here. When I go out, I see people being cordial with each other. People make eye contact with you and smile.

            I’ve been to Germany, and other parts of Europe. My observation was that people there are generally unfriendly. What really struck me was when I bought a few things at Lidl. The cashier never made eye contact with me. I also had random people in the street, after hearing me speak, yell at me to “go home”.

            This was not media propaganda or hearsay. I experienced this myself.

          5. I’ve been to Germany plenty of times. Worked for two different German based companies. Met lots of reserved but kind people, some of whom are life long friends. When people heard me speak a few German words, they generally chuckled and stopped pretending they didn’t know English. After a few beers apparently, my German much improved.

            The people around me get along fine. I know a couple who are always upset, but they would be upset anywhere. The media is our enemy. They want us fighting.

    2. NordStream 1 is running at 20% capacity. The Russians have the Germans by the you know whats. So much for waging economic war against Moscow. It’s over, time to strike a deal with them before old man winter arrives. Zelensky should start packing his bags.

      1. ‘NordStream 1 is running at 20% capacity. The Russians have the Germans by the you know whats’.

        Well – Yes –

        But –
        PLEASE
        No Schadenfreude as
        ‘so much for waging energy war against Germany’.
        Time to come to PEACE with Germany before old man War Criminal Monster Putin completely bankrupts his own country – as did everybody read how effective the justified economical sanctions against the War Criminal are?

        ‘Global sanctions are hammering Russia’s economy, study finds’

      2. and as the comment from:
        In Colorado –
        ‘The Russians have the Germans by the you know whats. So much for waging economic war against Moscow. It’s over, time to strike a deal with them before old man winter arrives’.
        – will be included in a German Documentary about the ‘Schadenfreude’ some Americans feel towards Germany – could I ask –
        Why?

        Why does somebody ‘In Colorado’ –
        (of all places?) in such an obvious Energy War of Putin against Germany – take the side to the War Criminal Monster?

        Why?

        Or could the comment: ‘The Russians have the Germans by the you know whats. So much for waging economic war against Moscow. It’s over, time to strike a deal with them before old man winter arrives’.
        – be understood in any other way?

        And why does somebody ‘In Colorado’ hate Germany that much – that he -(or she) writes such a comment?

          1. ‘The Germans are stoopid’.

            Because they thought if they have an energy-contract with Putin it would lead to long lasting PEACE between Russia and Germany?

          2. The Germans are stoopid.

            They were warned this would happen. And they laughed.

            They aren’t laughing now, are they?

          3. ‘They were warned this would happen’.

            Yes –
            but they also were told by Trump:
            ‘What’s wrong with getting along with Russia’
            and that also America just wanted to get along with Russia
            and if it would be up to him Putin would be one of his best friends -(or something like that) and perhaps they didn’t laugh about that – and that’s how Germany got fooled by Putin?

    3. ‘So it begins…’

      it actually had began before – as in the city of Konstanz it already was announced that ‘Die Therme’ – one of the greatest Spas on the Bodensee will have to close in Winter – if Putin really wages energy war against Germany – but that will teach the people in Southern Germany that one NEVER should get energy dependent on any Criminal Monsters –
      if they are in Russia or the Near East OR anywhere else.

    1. I’d like to challenge Jim Cramer to point out one recession since WWII when unemployment didn’t rise steeply off a low base. There were none.

      Some times I think he just makes sh!t up.

  33. We’re gonna need a bigger gulag as the globalists, Deep State, and Democrat-Bolsheviks keep expanding their definition of “extremist” to encompass just about any white male who won’t go along with their program.

    Whistleblowers: Biden’s FBI ‘Pressured & Incentivized’ Agents to Classify Cases As Domestic Violent Extremism

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/robert-spencer/2022/07/28/whistleblowers-bidens-fbi-pressured-incentivized-agents-to-classify-cases-as-domestic-violent-extremism-n1616498

  34. Fauci Claims He Never Recommended COVID-19 Lockdowns

    “First of all, I didn’t recommend locking anything down,” Fauci replied during an interview published by The Hill’s “Rising” program on Monday, suggesting it had been a recommendation from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).’

    “Go back and look at my statements,” he added, “that we need to do everything we can to keep the schools open and safe.”

    “When it became clear that we had community spread in the country … I recommended to the president that we shut the country down,” he said in an event with students at the College of the Holy Cross in October 2020.’

    ‘If the United States didn’t “shut down completely the way China did,” then the spread of COVID-19 wouldn’t be stopped, Fauci continued to say at the time. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since early 2020 has pursued a “zero COVID” strategy that some analysts say is tantamount to economic suicide.’

    ‘“You have a choice—either close the bars or close the schools. Because, if you have people congregating in bars, it’s likely you’re going to stay red,” the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said in November 2020.’

    ‘Also during the interview with The Hill, Fauci said there should have been “much more stringent restrictions” imposed on asymptomatic people in 2020.’

    “We know now, two and a half years later, that anywhere from 50 to 60 percent of the transmission occur from someone without symptoms, either someone who never will get symptoms or someone who is in the pre-symptomatic stage,” he said.’

    ‘It’s not clear how Fauci came to this conclusion about asymptomatic spread. Physician Aaron Kheriaty wrote for the Brownstone Institute that “no respiratory virus in history” has been known to spread asymptomatically.’

    “Had we known that then, the insidious nature of spread in the community would have been much more of an alarm and there would have been much, much more stringent restrictions in the sense of very, very heavy, encouraging people to wear masks, physical distancing or what have you,” added Fauci, who again called for mask-wearing in schools, workplaces, and “anything that brings people together in a closed environment” in some areas.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fauci-claims-he-never-recommended-covid-19-lockdowns_4625763.html

    1. Fauci Claims He Never Recommended COVID-19 Lockdowns

      Gaslighting is a way of life for them.

    2. IIRC, it was Gavin Newsom who kicked off the lockdown fest. Pretty Boy Floyd is definitely going to try to run on the Democratic Party ticket some day soon.

    3. “no respiratory virus in history” has been known to spread asymptomatically.’

      Even if true this doesn’t rule out the possibility. Most of those at a family dinner gathering last year caught it from a relative with an asymptomatic case.

      1. There’s a 1-2 day period after exposure but before symptoms that the infected is highly contagious. My buddy and I caught it at the same restaurant. 2 days later he had a birthday party At his house and it was a super spreader event and he didn’t start to feel sick until two days after that. He and I both unvaxxed got really sick. Asymptotic spread totally happens. Except for little kids they don’t seem to spread it hardly at all.

        1. Similarly, we gave passed our asymptomatic cases on to my daughter the day before anyone developed symptoms or tested positive.

        2. There’s a 1-2 day period after exposure but before symptoms that the infected is highly contagious.

          My understanding of “asymptomatic” means that you never have symptoms, not that you are still in the incubation period.

  36. My heart goes out to Mexico City residents dealing with an influx of Californians. Maybe you need to build a wall or something.

    ‘It’s modern day colonialism’: Mexico City residents are fed up with Americans descending on capital to escape high rents in California and gentrifying it by setting up Pilates centers and swanky coffee shops

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11059083/Mexico-City-residents-fed-Americans-descending-capital-escape-high-rent-California.html

    Residents of Mexico City are getting fed up with Americans moving south from California to enjoy cheap real estate while working from home.

    One TikTok influencer even called it ‘modern day colonialism’ as Americans have brought upscale coffee shops and Pilates studios, according to the Los Angeles Times.

    They even reported seeing flyers around the city saying: ‘New to the city? Working remotely? You’re a f***ing plague and the locals f***ing hate you. Leave.’

    1. As a former resident of CDMX, i can say that 100,000 new Gringo residents wouldn’t even be noticed. The number of expats in Mexico quoted (~1,600,000) is only 1% of the population and hasn’t skyrocketed, and for good reason: get the Mexican equivalent of a Greencard is monumentally hard. Retiree visas are easier, if you can demonstrate financial independence.

      The article makes it sound like there is a flood of immigrants from the US. There have been a million plus expats for decades. I scoured the Mexican media for this story and came up empty handed. I wonder if this story is fake.

      1. Wills Wing, the largest manufacturer of hang gliders in the U.S. located in Orange, California was recently sold and relocated to Valle de Bravo, Mexico. California’s high cost of living, taxes and liability were just a few of the contributing factors.

        1. was recently sold and relocated to Valle de Bravo, Mexico

          Was the buyer a Mexican?

          Also, Valle De Bravo seems like an odd choice of place to setup a hang glider manufacturer. The place isn’t known for manufacturing. It’s more of a place where rich people from Mexico City have their weekend homes. Nearby Toluca would have made more sense, I think. Or maybe the HQ will be in Valle De Bravo and the factory somewhere else?

          1. Valle De Bravo

            Apparently, it’s the winter destination for many pilots from the northern latitudes, and yes, the buyer is Mexican and a life long pilot himself.

          2. Apparently, it’s the winter destination

            Interesting. It’s at 6,000 ft, so its not the balmiest place to winter in Mexico. But it is scenic.

      2. I inherited a Taxco amethyst necklace from my grandmother. The expat history behind that movement is interesting.

  38. Are markets convinced that the central bankers will give up their anti inflation campaign before it’s too late to contain inflation?

    1. The Financial Times
      Eurozone inflation
      Eurozone growth rises as inflation hits fresh high
      Tourism boom boosts second-quarter figures for Italy, Spain and France, while German output stalls
      Holidaymakers on the beach at Lake Como in Italy
      Holidaymakers at Lake Como, Italy. Strong eurozone growth was attributed to the easing of coronavirus restrictions
      Olaf Storbeck in Frankfurt, Federica Cocco in London, Amy Kazmin in Rome, Akila Quinio in Paris and Peter Wise in Lisbon an hour ago

      A surge in tourism as countries relaxed coronavirus restrictions has boosted growth in the eurozone and softened the impact of record-high inflation in the second quarter.

      The region’s gross domestic product grew by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter, far stronger than the 0.1 per cent expansion forecast by economists. However, inflation was also up by more than expected, hitting a fresh high of 8.9 per cent in the year to July, up from 8.6 per cent in June and driven by a 40 per cent rise in energy prices and a 10 per cent increase in food prices as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both the GDP and inflation figures are flash estimates by Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics bureau.

      The core inflation measure, which strips out energy, food and tobacco prices, was up 4 per cent, still twice the level the European Central Bank is targeting. The bank last week raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade, increasing the benchmark deposit rate by 50 basis points to zero. Friday’s figures raise the chances of another 50 basis point increase at the ECB’s next vote in early September.
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      Wall Street rallies after Fed chair suggests rate rises may slow
      Government bond prices gyrate as US central bank imposes second 0.75 point increase
      Jay Powell, Federal Reserve chair
      Jay Powell, Federal Reserve chair: ‘At some point it will be appropriate to slow down’
      Nicholas Megaw in New York and Naomi Rovnick in London July 27 2022

      Wall Street equities finished sharply higher on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve announced its second 0.75 percentage point interest rate rise in two months.

      The increase in the federal funds rate to 2.25 per cent to 2.50 per cent was widely expected, and investors were encouraged as Fed chair Jay Powell said the central bank may soon slow the pace of further rises.

      “At some point it will be appropriate to slow down . . . We might do another unusually large increase [in September] but that’s not a decision that we’ve made at all, we’re going to be guided by the data,” he said.
      …

      1. Wall Street rallies after Fed chair suggests rate rises may slow

        And there you have it. They are signaling that they will accept inflation over austerity. Of course, at some point their hand will be forced, as you just can’t run an economy with hyper inflation.

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