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What Was Once A River Of Cash Has Turned Into A Trickle

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “A unit at new-development condo Central Park Tower, the tallest skyscraper on New York’s Billionaires’ Row, has sold for $43 million, a discount of 32.5% off its original asking price. ‘They laughed at first,’ said James Michael Angelo, who represented her in the deal. ‘But we didn’t end up too far north.’ The unit is the latest at the megatower to sell for a significant discount from its original price. In May, another unit at the tower sold for $48.49 million, down from its onetime asking price of $65.75 million, records show. “

“The Seattle-area housing market continues to cool off. Median home prices around the region continue to dip. Since May, prices in King County have dropped 11%, or $109,000. Combine all this — prices, sales and how quickly homes fly off the market — and the Seattle area was cooling the fastest of any major housing market in the country in June, according to Redfin. Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr predicts Seattle-area prices will continue to decline this year, though how dramatically depends in part on the rest of the economy.”

“‘Boise’s market is already turning around,’ said Boise Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton. ‘Sellers are asking me if the cash buyers from California are still around, hoping they’ll swoop in and offer to buy their home for more than the asking price–but that’s not happening much anymore, and the cash buyers who are in the market are often offering below the asking price. I don’t expect home values to plummet, but we do need to come down from the clouds at some point and sellers need to adjust their expectations to the new reality: There are more homes on the market, fewer buyers, and a higher chance that buyers can’t pay the asking price because their monthly payments have shot up due to rising rates.'”

“Denver’s July housing report shows the market is shifting away from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. Homebuyers who haven’t been able find a home will have an easier time now, as there were seven times as many homes in the market in July than at the start of the year, and twice as many since the end of April. ‘I think the name of the game right now is patience,’ said Andrew Abrams, chairman of the DMAR Market Trends Committee. ‘While the feeling is that things are slowing down – which is true – they’re not slowing down to a pace that’s going to like really shift the direction of the housing market and instead, it’s just going to be stable.'”

“‘We’re definitely not in a bubble we’re not going to crash,’ said Sindy Ready, treasurer on the board of the Arizona Association of Realtors. ‘Three months ago, we were at an inventory level of about 3,500 to 4,000 homes total in the market for the whole Valley, and that’s condos houses mansions, everything,’ she added. ‘We are up to as of this morning 18,700 homes on the market for the Valley.’ The price adjustment she says will give buyers more options.”

“‘We’re back into a situation where there may be some room to negotiate a little bit.’ Ready said, ‘In the old market a couple of months ago, every time a house sold the next one would sell another $10,000 higher, and then another $10,000 higher and it was going crazy.'”

“There’s no doubt about it; Central Florida’s housing market has shifted, according to Tansey Soderstrom, president of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. The last two years were marked by rocketing house prices, bidding wars and historic sales figures. The peak of the market likely has passed, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, Soderstrom told Orlando Business Journal. ‘That market was not sustainable. It was not a healthy market.’ Good listing photos, floor plans uploaded to MLS and proper staging are important practices Realtors should embrace again if they overlooked it during the frenzy, especially for pricier luxury homes, she said. ‘The market we were in the last 18-24 months, that didn’t matter.'”

“‘People are still moving in from California and they still have enough money to buy nice homes in desirable neighborhoods, sometimes with all cash,’ said Austin Redfin agent Gabriel Recio. ‘But the days of homes selling for 25% over asking price with multiple offers are over. Buyers are no longer as eager now that mortgage rates are up and there’s buzz in the air about the slowing housing market. Local buyers–and even buyers coming from out of town–now have a chance to take their time and buy a home at asking price or even under asking price.'”

“Q&A with Robyn Erlenbush, Broker/OwnerERA Landmark Realty, Bozeman, M.T.: When crafting a narrative, words are really important. We don’t talk about a market downturn or bubble; we refer to the shift in the market and what we’re seeing as a result of the shift. If a home is not getting showings, we talk about repositioning the home with new photos, new staging, and potentially a new price. The strategy is to keep the home from getting stagnant. This is important to keep sellers from panicking. There is no need to panic – we just need to be strategic. For example, a sound pricing strategy in today’s market is the practice of choosing relevant sales as far back as 12 months ago. This can help bracket this new market shift by showing a broader range of comparative pricing.”

“LGI Homes is a builder of single family homes across Western and Southeastern states and has benefited from the higher margins amid the COVID-19 induced housing demand boom. But those margins aren’t sustainable as demand for homes cools down and prices show signs of falling in some markets. ‘We will normalize our pricing. Yes, we will probably be selling the same floor plans in the future for less money than we were over the last 24 months. But it’s going to be similar to what it was two years and three years ago, because the last couple years are just going to be an outlier as far as [home] pricing goes,’ CEO Eric Lipar said.”

“Some firms will be forced to exit the mortgage industry as refinance activity dries up, according to Tim Wennes, CEO of the U.S. division of Santander. He would know: Santander — a relatively small player in the mortgage market — announced its decision to drop the product in February. ‘We were a first mover here and others are now doing the same math and seeing what’s happening with mortgage volumes,’ Wennes said in a recent interview. ‘For many, especially the smaller institutions, the vast majority of mortgage volume is refinance activity, which is drying up and will likely drive a shakeout.'”

“London’s real estate market fell off a cliff in July, the number of homes sold down by nearly half compared to the same month a year ago. The average selling price only fell by about $19,000 last month to $667,323, after eroding by $76,000 the previous month. July was the fifth straight month of declining average prices for homes in the London region that includes Strathroy, St. Thomas and portions of Elgin and Middlesex counties, with realtors selling only 514 homes. That’s 479 fewer homes sold than in July 2021, a drop of 48 per cent.”

“‘It feels like the taps kind of shut off,’ said Randy Pawlowski, president of the London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors. ‘There’s definitely some buyer’s remorse out there, too.'”

“A shift away from the rapid price increases of the past few years is well underway with home sales in both the Greater Toronto and Vancouver Areas dropping significantly. ‘The reality that Q1 pricing is long gone is now settling in for Canadians, as market psychology has turned dramatically,’ said Robert Kavcic, BMO Capital Markets senior economist. ‘Notably, more Canadians now expect prices to fall than rise over the coming months, a sudden turn from the raging self-reinforcing optimism seen through 2021.'”

“‘Although the housing market is only three months into a decline, the national Home Value Index shows that the rate of decline is comparable with the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, and the sharp downswing of the early 1980s,’ said CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless. ‘In Sydney, where the downturn has been particularly accelerated, we are seeing the sharpest value falls in almost 40 years. With fixed mortgage rates now up nearly three-fold from their lows and variable rates rising rapidly this has substantially reduced the amount new home buyers can borrow and hence their capacity to pay. As a result, the rug has effectively been pulled out from under the property market.'”

“What was once a river of cash has turned into a trickle as the property crisis Evergrande helped trigger has scared off buyers, with the revolt by mortgagors – sparked in June by buyers of an uncompleted Evergrande project – exacerbating the already crushing pressure on developers. The mortgagors are refusing to service the bank loans they took on to buy their apartments and the protest movement that started with the Evergrande development has now spread to about 320 projects across China.”

“Worryingly for the authorities and China’s banks, unpaid suppliers to Evergrande projects are also starting their own repayment strike which, if it were to spread as the mortgagors’ actions have spread, would amplify the financial and economic effects. Evergrande’s plight, already appearing hopeless, seems to worsen every time it provides an update.”

“Chinese developers – about 30 of the top 100 developers – have defaulted on about $US20 billion of offshore debts so far. Developments have been frozen, either incomplete or not even started and income from pre-sales has dried up. On Friday data on home sales by the top 100 developers was released that showed sales fell almost 40 per cent in July relative to the same month a year earlier and were almost 29 per cent lower than in June this year.”

“The mortgage boycotts, the sheer number of developments that have been frozen incomplete and the impact of China’s harsh ‘zero COVID’ policies on prospective borrowers’ incomes have gutted activity levels in the sector.”

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This Post Has 113 Comments

  1. ‘here were seven times as many homes in the market in July than at the start of the year, and twice as many since the end of April. ‘I think the name of the game right now is patience’

    Wa happened to my shortage Andy?

    1. They are anticipating the traditional winter real estate sales boom. Bidding wars back just in time for Christmas.

  2. ‘In the old market a couple of months ago, every time a house sold the next one would sell another $10,000 higher, and then another $10,000 higher and it was going crazy’

    Yes, the old market of 60 days ago, fueled by a respiratory illness. Golly, I hope no one paid too much cuz of CCP virus.

  3. ‘prices in King County have dropped 11%, or $109,000. Combine all this — prices, sales and how quickly homes fly off the market — and the Seattle area was cooling the fastest of any major housing market in the country in June…Marr predicts Seattle-area prices will continue to decline this year’

    It’s a race to see who is the worstess among the “pandemic boomtowns.”

    I said this was going to happen as it was unfolding. The global central banks fooked up and have mouths full of buffalo patties.

    1. The global central banks fooked up and have mouths full of buffalo patties.

      Why was the FED buying trillions in mortgage backed securities in the face of hyperinflating house prices?

      1. Well who else was going to buy that horse crap? Unrated junk, like 08 but worse. Oh excuse me it’s all AAA tranche all the way thru.

    2. I was watching an episode of House Humpers last night that was in Seattle. Some 20-something ditzy girl touring 700k+ homes. Guess her parents were helping her with the downpayment but still her job was working with some non-profit for the homeless. I have no idea how she expected to pay the mortgage even with the downpayment assistance. Is she really pulling in six figures?

      Of course her Realtor(tm) was someone she knew from high school. He kept talking about how crazy the market was and how they would likely have to overbid for the houses.

      It’ll make an enjoyable time capsule. Almost seemed quaint to me with what’s been going on the last couple months.

  4. ‘the days of homes selling for 25% over asking price with multiple offers are over’

    Again, doesn’t this mean shack prices are down 25%, at least, from a few months ago?

    1. Wow the BS numbers this morning.

      I always thought the jobs report were heavily manipulated to fit the narrative. Proved once again.

      1. I interpreted the report to indicate that an army of broke Reddit neckbeards are finally being forced off the couch and back into the workforce, because otherwise they’re going to be living behind a McDonald’s dumpster.

        1. are finally being forced off the couch and back into the workforce
          Agree. Plus the crash in Bitcoin several months ago did not help as people suddenly realized they weren’t going to be Bitcoin Billionaires.

          1. From talking with the bitcoiners on some forums, no, they still all believe. “it’s just a gully”. OH yes, they all believe, it’s totally going to replace the dollar/ruble/whatever. Also gold and silver is for oldies, bitcoin is for the end times.

        2. With interest rates climbing steeply, it certainly does feel awesome to not carry a credit card balance!

    2. You will own nothing.

      I noticed that the neighbor across the street’s white Subaru has been gone for a couple of months. Turns out he wrecked it. Now he’s on a waiting list to get one. Said that he was originally on the 2022 list, now he’s been moved to the 2023 list. He hopes to have the new car before year’s end.

      He’s retired, so he and the wife can get by with their older SUV for now.

      I was offered $15K for my 2013 Kia Soul. I figured I could sell it, spend a 6-7 thousand more and get a new one. Problem is, the 2022’s are sold out and there are waiting lists for the 2023’s. Another issue is that the new ones can start burning oil early on (as early as 10K miles). Mine burns nothing. So fuggedaboudit.

      1. Another issue is that the new ones can start burning oil early on (as early as 10K miles).’

        Subaru’s do that also. You have to buy a Tesla because electricity is free ask sparky the resident electrician on this blog.

  6. “Q&A with Robyn Erlenbush, Broker/OwnerERA Landmark Realty, Bozeman, M.T.: When crafting a narrative, words are really important. We don’t talk about a market downturn or bubble; we refer to the shift in the market and what we’re seeing as a result of the shift. If a home is not getting showings, we talk about repositioning the home with new photos, new staging, and potentially a new price. The strategy is to keep the home from getting stagnant. This is important to keep sellers from panicking. There is no need to panic – we just need to be strategic.”

    – This sounds like damage control to me, and attempting to control the narrative is a big part of that. However, as sales decline and inventory rises, those that understand RRE know that price declines are next, and in fact have already begun. There’s too much information out there now via the internet (blogs, videos, etc.) to hide what’s going on.
    – That the market has “shifted” is just another way of saying housing bubble 2.0 has popped without saying it. Everyone knows it, but please don’t say “bubble.” Maybe no one will notice. 🙂 Whistling past the graveyard. The emperor has no clothes. Apparently no one learned anything from housing bubble 1.0.
    – BTW, housing bubble 2.0 is only part of the larger “everything bubble” that’s now popping in its entirety. I’m sure this is fine.

    1. They are hoping and praying the spigot of cheap, plentiful and easy money will soon reopen. Of course, the current mortgage rates are still low by historical standards. If the average house cost $200K it wouldn’t be a problem. At 600K, it’s a big problem.

      1. “…hoping and praying the spigot of cheap, plentiful and easy money will soon reopen…”

        Strong jobs report this morning.

        Let’s see if the Fed has enough testosterone to continue raising rates.

        As many HBB’ers have noted, if mortgage rates can near historical levels (6%-7%) this whole bubble will just go away.

        Going to be interesting to see how the EU and others will handle rates

      2. “They are hoping and praying the spigot of cheap, plentiful and easy money will soon reopen.”

        – Stonks: stonks have been on a tear recently as buyers are fully expecting a Fed “pivot.” However, rising asset prices mean that the Fed must work all that much harder to try to reduce inflation. Today’s employment report is reinforcing this. I don’t see a pivot anytime soon, and I think we’re seeing a bear market rally in stonks as investors are fighting the Fed. Let’s see what Sept., Oct. bring.
        – Housing: prices were too high due to historically and artificially low rates from the Fed and easy financing/appraisals. Now the Fed has to fight the inflation that they caused with their insane money printing and part of that is raising rates. The party’s over. The same $600k house at 3% is going to now sell for a lot lower at 5.4%. Add a recession and demand falls even further. Prices need to fall a lot further to get back to something that’s even close to affordable. Speculator/investor/all cash demand is vanishing as they see the writing on the wall. That leaves shelter-buyers who need a mortgage. Housing was unaffordable before rates went up. Prices are too darned high. There’s now a “shift” in the market. Lower housing prices are a good thing. End the Fed – the perpetual motion bubble machine.

      3. “They are hoping and praying the spigot of cheap, plentiful and easy money will soon reopen.”

        The new jobs number just pounded 🔨 a nail in the coffin ⚰️ of hope and prayer for lower interest rates.

      1. potato, potato, tomato, tomato.

        You’re never going to get your selling numbers up with thoughts like that.

    4. The narrative has clearly shifted from predictions of continued strong growth to a slow down/soft landing. The same narrative shift happened towards the end of 2005. Prices peaked about a year later at the beginning of 2007. The peak in bubble denial seems to happen around the peak of the bubble. The “experts” will never forewarn of a bubble. They will only grudgingly acknowledge it in hindsight. But they unwittingly reveal their subconscious fears by denying that which there is no need to speak of unless the risk of it is in fact real. Judging by the previous bubble the
      soft landing narrative will last about six months. The next narrative will be “an orderly decline”, housing prices might fall significantly but it won’t affect the overall economy or banking sector enough to be a concern. But things are deteriorating more rapidly than in the previous bubble. We are already seeing month over month price drops. The peak price might be in already.

      1. unwittingly reveal their subconscious fears

        In the YT videos.

        peak price

        March or April

  8. The jobs number is great, but doesn’t it imply that inflationary pressures are likely to remain high and the Fed’s series of interest rate hikes is nowhere near over?

    Seems like the stock market may shift in response. Good luck keeping the new bull narrative alive in the face of reality. 🐻 🐂

    1. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US government bonds and stock futures drop after hot jobs report
      Traders crank up expectations for Fed rate rises after data showing big pick-up in hiring
      The US Federal Reserve building
      Treasury yields moved higher after data showed that US employers added 528,000 jobs in July
      Ian Johnston
      34 minutes ago

      US government bonds and stock futures sold off on Friday after employment data showed red hot labour conditions, leading traders to boost their expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases.

      Treasury yields shot higher after the closely watched US jobs report, which showed employers added 528,000 jobs in July, more than double the 250,000 expected by economists and up sharply from 398,000 in June.

      The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to monetary policy expectations, surged more than 0.15 percentage points to 3.21 per cent — a sharp jump for a market that typically moves in small increments. Longer-dated bonds came under more subdued pressure. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures fell 1.1 per cent.
      …

      1. Obvious but worth pointing out that higher Treasury yields translate into higher mortgage rates, further downward pressure on home prices, and ever more denial that the housing bubble has popped by REIC constituents.

      2. The 10 year – 2 year bond inversion is getting bigger. It was -.22 percent at the end of July. August 4 number is -.35 percent.

        Not a lot of confidence in the future.

    2. The jobs number is as fabricated as Biden’s 81 million votes or our CPI inflation stats that understate true inflation by half.

    3. The jobs number is great, but doesn’t it imply that inflationary pressures are likely to remain high and the Fed’s series of interest rate hikes is nowhere near over?

      The FED’s rate hikes were never near over regardless of the jobs number. From the moment the FED instituted the first hike, Wall St. speculators started talking about a pivot. I mean, to the very day. And all of the financial talking heads and reckless gamblers have been parroting the same, praying for more Powellbucks. Ain’t happenin’. Those days are GONE. Forever.

    4. Yahoo
      Business Insider
      The stock market will fall 13% to a new low for the year after a hot jobs report means inflation will linger and the Fed will keep tightening, Bank of America says
      Matthew Fox
      Fri, August 5, 2022 at 8:20 AM·3 min read

      – The stock market is poised to hit new lows later this year following July’s hot job report, Bank of America said in a Friday note.

      – That’s because inflation is likely to linger and the Fed will be forced to continue tightening financial conditions.

      – “Still think end-game SPX is [below] 3,600,” BofA said, which represents 13% downside potential.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-fall-13-low-152002821.html

    1. Now we wait for him to thank the vaccine.

      Yup. Small wonder some think we are in the end times. Everything is upside down.

    1. I don’t expect home values to plummet

      That’s like saying “I don’t think Elvis will die.” Already happened, ‘tard.

  11. Frens, I fear that we might be looking at the real possibility of a bursting housing bubble.

  12. In May, another unit at the tower sold for $48.49 million, down from its onetime asking price of $65.75 million, records show.

    Still way to much for an airbox, especially in a city that has become lawless. Of course, the buyers have no intention of ever actually living in one. Their true NY homes are on expansive estates in the Hamptons, crawling with armed security. The condos are their version of beanie babies.

  13. ‘Sellers are asking me if the cash buyers from California are still around, hoping they’ll swoop in and offer to buy their home for more than the asking price–but that’s not happening much anymore, and the cash buyers who are in the market are often offering below the asking price.’

    Buyer or seller is not a God-given attribute, like biological sex is. Don’t forget that yesterday’s all-cash buyers can easily become today’s desperate sellers, accepting low-ball offers to front run a wave of price collapse. They often don’t have the skin of owner occupancy in the game to slow down their eagerness to dump shacks.

    1. Great points, often forgotten amidst the recurring scares about Chinese/Japanese/Russians/Californians/[insert scary-sounding foreigner designation] “taking over” an area. If the new arrivals aren’t there for the long haul, the economic effect is also transitory.

      Likewise, we hear a lot of drumbeats here about virtuous righteous “locals” in an area suffering at the hands of evil outsider “locusts”. But the real effect depends on the long term and constructive intentions of the new arrivals. They can either prove to be “infestors” (to use your term), or can stay around long enough to become locals themselves, and bring new perspectives and a net benefit to the area, in which case they should be welcomed.

      1. Absentee investor ownership was highly profitable during the central bankers’ rate suppression regime of the past decade.

        Now that rates are headed sharply up towards historically normal levels, it seems like a guaranteed path to investing losses.

    2. “…yesterday’s all-cash buyers can easily become today’s desperate sellers, accepting low-ball offers to front run a wave of price collapse…”

      Exactly!

      Many possible outcomes of what is about to happen, but waves of desperate front runners seems very likely. So many of these all-cash buyers are emotional. (emotional irrationality drove FOMO in the first place). Most likely they will be the first to panic.

      Just 1 more good ballsy rate hike by the FED and the fuse of self destruction will be lit for good.

  14. “Chinese developers – about 30 of the top 100 developers – have defaulted on about $US20 billion of offshore debts so far. Developments have been frozen, either incomplete or not even started and income from pre-sales has dried up. On Friday data on home sales by the top 100 developers was released that showed sales fell almost 40 per cent in July relative to the same month a year earlier and were almost 29 per cent lower than in June this year.”

    With no bailouts forthcoming, it seems like China’s offshore creditors are fooked.

  15. “The mortgage boycotts, the sheer number of developments that have been frozen incomplete and the impact of China’s harsh ‘zero COVID’ policies on prospective borrowers’ incomes have gutted activity levels in the sector.”

    Noting China’s real estate dependent economy is getting flushed down the toilet, does it seem like the outrage over Pelosi’s visit is a diversionary tactic to help China’s real estate losers channel their rage?

    1. For how many years do you expect the Chinese real estate crash to play out? It seems like Japanese real estate CR8Red for over a decade starting in 1990.

      Recovery in 2023? It’s not going to happen.

      1. logo
        logo
        Markets
        CNBC TV
        Watchlist
        China Economy
        China’s property sales are set to plunge 30% — worse than in 2008, S&P says
        Published Wed, Jul 27 20223:13 AM EDT
        Updated Wed, Jul 27 20223:13 AM EDT
        Evelyn Cheng
        Key Points
        – China’s property sales will likely drop by about 30% this year — nearly two times worse than their prior forecast, S&P Global Ratings said, citing a growing number of Chinese homebuyers suspending their mortgage payments.
        – Such a drop would be worse than in 2008 when sales fell by roughly 20%, Esther Liu, director at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Wednesday.
        – The latest developments have delayed a recovery in China’s real estate sector to next year from this year, she said.

        BEIJING — China’s property sales are set to plunge this year by more than they did during the 2008 financial crisis, according to new estimates from S&P Global Ratings.

        National property sales will likely drop by about 30% this year — nearly two times worse than their prior forecast, the ratings agency said, citing a growing number of Chinese homebuyers suspending their mortgage payments.

        Such a drop would be worse than in 2008 when sales fell by roughly 20%, Esther Liu, director at S&P Global Ratings, said in a phone interview Wednesday.

        Since late June, unofficial tallies show a rapid increase in Chinese homebuyers refusing to pay their mortgages across a few hundred uncompleted projects — until developers finish construction on the apartments.

        Most homes in China are sold before completion, generating an important source of cash flow for developers. The businesses have struggled to obtain financing in the last two years as Beijing cracked down on their high reliance on debt for growth.

        Now, the mortgage strike is damaging market confidence, delaying a recovery of China’s real estate sector to next year rather than this year, Liu said.
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/chinas-property-sales-set-for-a-worse-plunge-than-in-2008-sp-says.html

    2. It helps them justify not paying foreign investors who are just capitalist running dogs trying to bring down China. Or some such tripe to disguise their unwillingness to pay up.

  16. A reader sent these in:

    Who would have thought…

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1555184468381556736

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    Everyone Talks About The Devastating 1.00% Prime Rate Increase Last Month

    How intense the reaction was, how you could just watch activity fall off a cliff

    September 7th is coming, another increase is coming

    Market sentiment will continue to cool

    And prices

    And activity

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1555326712791056392

    US small business optimism worst in 48 years

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1555250887836291072

    Bloomberg Markets

    NEW: Credit Suisse executives are considering cutting thousands of jobs globally as part of its latest turnaround efforts, sources say

    https://twitter.com/markets/status/1555153164340535296

    The Bank of England now forecasts a recession lasting 5 quarters (!)

    The same Bank of England just announced a 50 bps hike, promised more to come in Sep and most importantly it will embark in active QT bond sales

    We’re witnessing the biggest monetary policy conundrum in decades

    https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1555153561159344128

    1. 4 quarters of declining GDP is not a recession. It’s the official definition of a depression. 5 quarters most definitely is.

        1. “Recession” was the word they used to replace “depression” to try and make it sound less scary. There is no difference; it’s all just manipulative word games, like everything else to do with finance and central banking.

          Now they’re trying to change the threshold of what constitutes a recession/depression.

  17. Don’t do this. There need to be Nuremburg Trials first:

    “A West Virginia man has been sentenced to more than three years in federal prison for sending threatening emails to Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, and other federal officials, the Maryland U.S. attorney’s office said Thursday.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/west-virginia-man-sentenced-for-threats-against-fauci-officials/ar-AA10jPtG

    This man is responsible for the death and maiming of millions of people. And he needs to face justice for his actions.

  19. JUL 2022 | Real Estate Market Update | Santa Clara County
    Aug 5, 2022

    July 2022 Stats for Single Family Homes in Santa Clara County are here!

    We continue experiencing the market shift, resulting from the FEDs continued effort to bring inflation under control and higher inventory. It’s important remember as we discuss these stats, that the housing market is NOT crashing! Rather, it is adjusting back toward a more normal and balanced pre-pandemic market due to having more supply and a bit less demand since mortgage borrowing rates have increased.

    Active homes on market bumped up another 4% from June with now over 1400 Single Family Homes available on market. Pending and Sold Sales are down by another 2% and 31% respectively, confirming that buyers are taking their time to view more inventory available before making their decision to write an offer on homes of interest. With more homes available and summertime vacations drawing buyers in and out of the market, it makes sense to see this cooling market trend continue as we move through the final month of summer before the school season begins again. This is the same trend we saw in 2019 with similar variables of higher interest rates and more inventory for buyers to choose from.

    This is also evidence in The Average Days on Market having bumped up by another 50%, translating into 7 days more than June, with homes taking an average of 21 days to get into contract in July. It has been a steady trend this past month of buyers purposefully taking their time before deciding to write an offer with less interest in wanting to compete to win a home and being more conscientious about the ceiling of their budget when making offers.

    The Average Sales Price for SFHs decreased by 3% from this time last month, now sitting just UNDER $2.150ML. The Average Price/SF also decreased by 5%, now resting at $1,083/SF. Even more telling of the cooling trend, is the The List to Sold Price Ratio, down by 5% from last month, translating into homes now selling closer to only 1% over the ask price – even when there is competition for the property through multiple offers.

    Months’ Worth of Inventory went up 53% from June, we now have over 2 months’ worth of inventory. A welcomed relief for buyers; making them feel more comfortable to wait for that perfect dream home and the opportunity to negotiate with sellers to achieve a win-win agreement. Let’s remember that it still takes a 6-month inventory threshold to be an official buyer’s market, and we are far from that threshold, but buyers are beginning to experience some relief with more supply, reducing competition and often able to keep contingencies in place and negotiate better terms and price if homes sit on market for a while.

    The 30 year Conforming Fixed Mortgage Rate, as noted by Bankrate, dipped 5% from this time last month, translating into a little over .25 of a point. That said, August opened with rates going down even further. allowing buyers the opportunity to get a bit more purchase power out of their lender if they jumped on a property they liked.

    More and more we hear news of either being in a recession or heading toward one; but it is also important to know that in the past, the housing market has helped the economy get through recessions when the housing market is in a healthy state – which it is.

    Sellers, it is most important that you connect with a realtor that is experienced and strategic with market shifts, and able to translate that understanding into what that means for you and your timing. Let’s not forget that the past few years of extravagant home sale prices are not meant to be sustainable. We knew this shift needed to take place. Having good advice on how to prepare your home for a market that has higher supply and less demand is key for you to get top dollar with multiple interest. It is still happening but being strategic is key.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJo6nk1mIaI

    9 minutes.

    1. “It’s important remember as we discuss these stats, that the housing market is NOT crashing!”

      It’s just taking a SHIFT…a really massive, smelly dump.

  21. In the market for a new home? Denver’s July housing report shows things are cooling off
    Denver7 – The Denver Channel
    Aug 4, 2022 If you’ve been on the market for a new home but haven’t been able to beat all-cash offers from investors or other buyers, things may soon work in your favor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ5XHMeyd0c

    2:49.

    1. The Denver “economy” for the past few years has been cash out refis.

      “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

  23. latest VDH podcast has a good info on why virus was man made

    Check it out Victor Davis Hanson with Dr Steven Quay

  24. Since the Biden regime has given illegal immigrants the green light to flood across our open borders, and the DNC is going all-out to import millions of replacement voters to send to the red states, it’s poetic justice for border states to facilitate migrants’ journey to Le Cesspool Grande.

    First Texas bus of 50 mostly male illegal migrants arrives in NYC: Gov. Abbott says Big Apple is the ‘ideal destination’ and challenges liberal Mayor Adams to welcome them – as arrivals say city has ‘best opportunities’ in nation

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11084521/First-bus-migrants-Texas-arrives-New-York-City.html

    The first bus of migrants sent from Texas by Governor Greg Abbott arrived in New York City on Friday morning.

    The group was dropped off at Port Authority Bus Terminal in Manhattan after making the almost 2,000-mile trip from the border that lasted days.

    A group of charity workers and volunteers greeted the roughly 50 migrants, who were mostly men, before they ventured into the city for hotels or shelters.

    1. The Financial Times
      Pimco
      Pimco hit by €29bn outflows as bond market turns
      Deteriorating global economy sucks the life out of 30-year boom, sending investors racing for the exit
      Pimco’s website on a computer screen
      The value of their bond holdings held by Pimco, the world’s largest credit-focused investment manager, has been eroded by high inflation
      Ian Smith and Harriet Agnew in London 7 hours ago

      Pimco, the world’s biggest credit-focused investment manager, lost €29bn in net outflows in the second quarter as a sweeping sell-off in the bond market sent investors racing for the exit.

      The California-based manager’s outflows, disclosed on Friday, followed €14bn pulled by investors in the first quarter. Analysts at Citi said in a note that Pimco’s outflows in the three months to the end of June were “significantly higher than expected”.

      Investors are closely watching the fortunes of Pimco, owned by Germany’s Allianz, as a deteriorating global economy sucks the life out of the 30-year bond market boom.

      Pimco and its peers are trying to navigate an environment where the highest level of inflation in a generation is eroding the value of their bond holdings. The bond market sell-off also reflects concerns about the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on global economies.

      “Clearly, the market has been tough,” Allianz’s chief financial officer Giulio Terzariol said on Friday. But he said fixed-income managers everywhere had outflows and that July had showed signs of a stabilisation in the market.

      Overall, Allianz’s third-party assets under management fell €109bn during the quarter to €1.8tn. Outflows across the group’s investment businesses were €34bn, while market movements took another €110bn off the group’s assets under management, offset partly by currency effects.
      …

    2. Does it seem like the bond market just can’t get a break these days?

      There is no bond market. There is only central bankers issuing debt, then buying it all up (i.e. with the ECB’s “unlimited bond buying tool” to keep the debt market from signaling the wheels are about to come off the bus.

    3. The Financial Times
      US economy
      Big US job gains give Fed ‘a lot more work to do’ on taming inflation
      Odds of third straight 0.75 point increase grow after data show economy still red-hot despite central bank’s efforts to cool it
      A ‘now hiring’ sign is posted at a Home Depot store on August 05 2022 in San Rafael, California
      The US added 528,000 jobs last month, according to data released on Friday, far surpassing expectations for a more modest gain
      James Politi in Washington and Kate Duguid in New York 4 hours ago

      The Federal Reserve will face more urgency in its fight to cool down the US economy with steep interest rate increases after the latest batch of labour market data showed an unexpected acceleration in jobs gains and strong wage growth.

      The figures released on Friday eased concerns that the American economy was sharply slowing down or already in recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction in output this year. However, it will increase worries that high inflation may become entrenched as wages keep rising, requiring even more intervention by the central bank.

      The Fed has already moved its main interest rate up from the rock-bottom levels of the coronavirus pandemic to a target range of 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent this year, including two consecutive 0.75 percentage point increases in June and July.
      …

  26. Prices are down 7-8% in the Bay Area, 11% in Seattle, and likely more in Boise and Austin in the span of 2-3 months. Gee, I wonder what a crash would look like??

    1. It’s been fast but started more than 3 months ago. Mortgage rates first started moving up because the market moved them. Before the central banks moved significantly. IIRC that was around January 2022. As I see it from what I find and post here, that was when weakness quickly got exposed. But yeah, the actual prices rolling over has been in just a few months. If this was 2005 we’d be waiting on CAR or Dataquick to spoon-feed us YOY hogwash.

      1. My favorite relitter comments are the ones claiming prices are still going up because the YOY number is still positive, when in the previous sentence they admitted prices are lower than they were 2 months ago. Only in realtor speak.

    2. Humming this to myself while shopping, as I pick stuff up and put it back down.

      The Kinks – Low Budget
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3xi9lCmj-0

      Cheap is small and not too steep
      But best of all cheap is cheap
      Circumstance has forced my hand
      To be a cut price person in a low budget land
      Times are hard but we’ll all survive
      I just got to learn to economize
      I’m on a low budget
      I’m on a low budget
      I’m not cheap, you understand
      I’m just a cut price person in a low budget land
      Excuse my shoes they don’t quite fit
      They’re a special offer and they hurt me a bit
      Even my trousers are giving me pain
      They were reduced in a sale so I shouldn’t complain
      They squeeze me so tight so I can’t take no more
      They’re size 28 but I take 34
      I’m on a low budget
      What did you say
      I’m on a low budget
      I thought you said that
      I’m on a low budget
      I’m a cut price person in a low budget land
      I’m shopping at Woolworth and low discount stores
      I’m dropping my standards so that I can buy more
      Low budget sure keeps me on my toes
      I count every penny and I watch where it goes
      We’re all on our uppers we’re all going skint
      I used to smoke cigars but now I suck polo mints
      I’m on a low budget
      What did you say
      Yea I’m on a low budget
      I thought you said that
      I’m on a low budget
      I’m a cut price person in a low budget land
      I’m on a low budget
      Low budget
      Low budget
      Art takes time, time is money
      Money’s scarce and that ain’t funny
      Millionaires are things of the past
      We’re in a low budget film where nothing can last
      Money’s rare there’s none to be found
      So don’t think I’m tight if I don’t buy a round
      I’m on a low budget
      What did you say
      Yes, I’m on a low budget
      I thought you said that
      I’m on a low budget
      I’m a cut price person in a low budget land
      I’m on a low budget
      Say it again
      Low budget
      One more time
      Low budget

  30. “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable.” — JFK

    ‘It’s crazy’: FBI Director Christopher Wray expresses deep concern for rising violence in US

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/crazy-fbi-director-christopher-wray-195543168.html

    WASHINGTON – FBI Director Christopher Wray on Thursday expressed deep concern for rising violence in the U.S. driven by an array of domestic grievances, from election-related disputes to lingering anger following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the landmark abortion-rights case Roe v. Wade.

    “I feel like everyday I’m getting briefed on somebody throwing a molotov cocktail at someone for some issue,” Wray told the Senate Judiciary Committee. “It’s crazy.”

    1. When Pizzagate and Q was happening, I’d read ACG (Alt Celebrity Gossip) and sometimes Datalounge. I do recall she was often mentioned as a gold digger. I have a memory for the most useless stuff.

    1. Local news station KTLA-5 reported:

      Investigators believe the female driver of a Mercedes was traveling at more than 100 miles per hour in a 35 mph zone when she plowed into cars at the intersection of South La Brea and Slauson avenues around 1:40 p.m., killing six people and injuring eight others.

      Among those killed: a pregnant woman, her unborn child, and her infant.

      California Highway Patrol said the driver, who survived, is facing multiple charges.

  33. “When crafting a narrative”

    There’s no need to use fancy words to say you’re lying…. just say it. You realtors are liars. And mortgage brokers are neck deep in fraud.

    Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Wave Of Mortgage Defaults And Inventory Blankets US Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/co/80231/market-trends/

  34. “Investigators believe the driver of a Mercedes was traveling at more than 100 miles per hour in a 35 mph zone when she plowed into cars at the intersection of South La Brea and Slauson avenues around 1:40 p.m., killing six people and injuring eight others.”

    Anyone else see that high speed intersection crash in Windsor Hills, CA reported by KTLA that includes video?

    1. Very intense. Saw it this AM, haven’t read anymore. Black car was annihilated, white car spun around, looked like they were okay. Posting vid separately because it takes so long to clear moderation.

    2. Did you see the video of drunk Ann Heche doing almost 70 mph down a residential street in her Mini Cooper, crashing all the way through a house? She’s in critical condition with severe burns. The really wild part is the video of her trying to get off the stretcher.

        1. Her best days are behind her.

          She is not aging well at all. Did you see the picture of her, drunk in her car shortly before the crash?

          1. “Did you see the picture of her, drunk in her car shortly before the crash?”

            I saw a doorbell ring camera clip with audio that sounded like she was driving on a rim, the tire having gone flat several miles earlier.

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