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What Was Once A Virtuous Cycle Has Turned Vicious

A report from the Dallas Business Journal in Texas. “The number of new homes sitting on the market is up significantly. The three-month moving average of active listings in the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems jumped from 933 in April to 2,915 in June – an increase of more than 200% in 90 days, according to an analysis of NTREIS data by Dallas-based HomesUSA.com. Some DFW builders have reported a surge in cancelations of contracts due to the higher rates and inflation.”

“Single-family home building permits declined sharply through the first seven months of 2022 compared to year-ago numbers in Celina (down 42%), Frisco (down 36%), and McKinney (down 30%), according to Addison-based Tomlin Investments, which tracks new home construction north of Dallas-Fort Worth. Home permits are also lower in Princeton (down 23%), Prosper (down 19%), and Anna (down 3%).”

The New York Times. “In 2022, the frequency of canceled deals has begun to rise again, reaching nearly 15% in June — the highest rate since the pandemic peak, according to Redfin, representing about 60,000 failed home sales across the nation. The locations where the highest percentage of deals fell through in June — many in the South and Southwest — are some of the most popular for buyers. In Las Vegas, just over 27% of deals collapsed in June, the highest rate among all markets, according to Redfin. Favored destinations in Florida followed, including Lakeland, just under 27%, and Cape Coral, just under 26%.”

From WSB TV on Georgia. “After several record months of soaring prices, the housing market in metro Atlanta is finally starting to cool off. ‘For about three weeks in a row, [buyers] woke up to a 5-gallon bucket of ice water thrown in their face,’ said Rob Smith, a broker with Keller Williams. Those factors, combined with the fact that many would-be buyers have been priced out by high prices and rising mortgage rates, resulted in a 31% annual decline in home sales last month.”

Foster’s Daily Democrat. “The average median price of single-family homes sold in Strafford County was $420,000 in July, down from the record high of $435,000 the market hit in June. The state median price fell to $450,000 in July, down from the $460,000 reported in June. Data from the New Hampshire Association of Realtors shows the consistent rise in single-family home prices over the course of the year, which is now in decline. The most recent July report shows that trend isn’t just occurring within the local housing market, it’s happening statewide.”

From WESH Orlando in Florida. “Real estate experts say there’s a silver lining to the higher interest rates — it’s tipping sales negotiations to buyers. Yara Neurauter just bought a home for her mother in Kissimmee. The house was originally listed at $395,000, but the seller ended up dropping it by about $20,000. ‘That really was awesome because that was basically the closing costs, so I didn’t need to add or to get that money,’ Neurauter said.”

“‘The interest rates kind of scare a lot of buyers off, so it gets the sellers to give the opportunity to the buyers that are still in the market, to get in front of them and purchase the property. Not for a higher price, because it actually slowed down the market a little bit, but it actually gives them the opportunity to buy the house for the price that it’s valued at,’ Melissa Correa with Ameriuno said.”

From Mansion Global. “Freebies and perks for homeowners such as a private club membership are a mainstay in the world of luxury real estate and intended to entice prospective buyers to sign on the dotted line. In the U.S. residential real estate market, gifts are offered by both developers who want to move apartments in their swanky buildings and individuals selling their homes. They range from modest to over-the-top, said Jonathan Miller, the chief executive of the real estate appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel, and are more prevalent when the market is soft.”

“‘When sales lag, freebies increase in a bid to incentivize buyers,’ he said. ‘These days, sales are slowing, and inventory is rising after two years of being the opposite, which suggests that we may see more of them going forward.'”

“Many of these extras are especially present in South Florida, Mr. Miller said, where the market is normalizing after the unprecedented boom it saw during the pandemic. ‘The frenzy in South Florida was intense compared with the rest of the country because it became a place where people wanted to live full time,’ he said. ‘Now that the numbers are inching toward pre-pandemic levels, freebies could push wavering buyers over the finish line.'”

“Kelly Killoren Bensimon, a real estate salesperson for Douglas Elliman in Miami and New York, said that the gifts that she has encountered in her business include everything from yacht access and use of a summer house to magnums of pricey wine. ‘One person I know of who was selling a $5 million house in the Hamptons even threw in a free Mercedes 280SL,’ she said. ‘They didn’t want to lower the price but were happy to sweeten the deal.'”

The National Post in Canada. “There’s a house for sale not far from me. It’s a dump — a small, older split-level on a modest-sized lot on a busy street in a so-so neighbourhood. The yard is weedy and unloved. The back has a shed and not much else. There’s no garage. Nevertheless, the guy wants $1.25 million. A few minutes drive in another direction is another house. It’s bigger, on a nicer lot, in a quieter neighbourhood. It’s been sold twice since 2015 and is on the market again. In 2015, it went for $720,000 and was notably tired-looking inside. The buyers spent some money on it and re-listed in 2019 for $980,000. Since then, it’s been spruced up further and is listed at $1.85 million. In other words, the latest seller wants almost $900,000 profit after three years on some upgrades and much better staging.”

“I’d be surprised if either seller gets their price. The costlier of the two has already been on the market a month, so no sign of a bidding war on that one. One of the many articles written lately on the state of Toronto’s real estate market reports that prices of detached houses in the city have fallen $500,000 since February, with sales down almost 50 per cent. In the surrounding suburbs, where prices have been only slightly less ridiculous, the decline has been similar: prices down $400,000 in six months, sales down 47 per cent.”

“I’ve seen this before, more than once. When the Toronto market blew up in 1989, after a similar period of euphoria, it took two decades to recover. I remember putting a big deposit on a high-rise condominium I didn’t really want, out of fear that it would be the last chance — ever! — to get my very own bit of property. Luckily, I quickly reconsidered and got most of my money back. But many didn’t, and they spent 20 years paying mortgages on buildings that weren’t worth it. It works that way because once buyers realize the bubble has burst, they’re not eager to blow a new one.”

“A lot of people have trouble accepting that fact. The guy near me who is asking close to double what he paid three years ago may be reluctant to accept that he missed the boat. A lot of people made a lot of money by flipping places during the price rise, often having done little more than sit on their purchase for a year or so.”

“It worked so well for so long, people came to accept it as the norm. House flippers thought they’d actually earned something, when they often just shuffled money around and waited. Now they don’t want to admit the fun is over, and figure if they just sit tight long enough, the market will turn foolish again and they can still get their big cash-out. It could be a long wait. The reason sales are falling so precipitously is that buyers now expect sellers to make the concessions. If prices have dropped half a million in six months, they might drop another half million down the road. Who knows? In the meantime, why offer more than you have to? Just in the past month, according to another report, the average Toronto home prices fell $133,000.”

“A lot of people are likely to get hurt as the market re-organizes itself: with houses that aren’t worth what they cost, with mortgages they can’t really afford, with homes they bought on the assumption they’d have no trouble selling their existing house at a big profit.The real estate business is a great game when it’s working in your favour, but it’s still a business and not a cash-printing machine. People keep making the mistake of thinking it’s guaranteed money. It’s not. Over time, property generally grows in value. But abuse it and it’s easy to get burned.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “888 Carnarvon St., No 1105, New Westminster, B.C. Asking price: $599,000 (March 26). Selling price: $598,500 (April 28). The owner-landlord was worried about rising interest rates, so listing agent Bryan Yan advised him to list sooner rather than later, back in March. After a couple of weekends, the owner thought they’d set the price too high, but Mr. Yan told him to wait. ‘I said I’d try to get the auction atmosphere, and get people closer to that price. So the seller was very happy he listened to me.'”

“The sellers had paid $391,000 for the new unit in 2009, and then turned it over to a property manager to rent it out. They have other units in the building that they are selling. ‘All my clients are selling off their investments,’ Mr. Yan said.”

Cyprus Property News. “Cyprus Central Bank’s recent financial stability report included some interesting data about the loans and property that passed into the ownership of Credit Acquiring Companies (CACs), shedding a little more light on what they own and how much of the market they have influence over. CACs own a significant number of properties, which were acquired either as part of the purchase of credit institutions’ non-performing loan portfolios or through debt-for-asset exchange agreements with borrowers.”

“More specifically, as of December 31, they owned 5,679 properties with a total value of €978 million. In other words, the Central Bank figures confirm what we have been saying for a long time: the Real Estate sector’s balance has changed because the owners and sellers of properties have changed. Dramatically. We want to clarify that these are the properties that are currently marketed. It is estimated there are other properties worth approximately €500-600 million in the hands of banks and CACs that have not yet been put on the market (and there are many individuals who have their property on the market but choose not to promote it because ‘they don’t want people/ their neighbours to know’).”

“In time we will see reductions in the prices of some properties of which ‘their time has passed’. This will make the life of some individuals/sellers even more difficult, as they will be faced with a reality check – you see, the days of ‘this is what I ask for if you don’t like the price, go elsewhere’ have passed.”

The Los Angeles Times. “Last November, hundreds of angry homeowners in Nanchang, the capital of China’s Jiangxi province, gathered on the roof of an unfinished apartment building. From their perch, they unfurled red and white banners along the outer walls and chanted demands for completion of the homes they had already partially paid for. On the dirt below, workers inflated a large airbag to catch anyone who jumped.”

“Nearly 500 miles away in Shanghai, a 26-year-old interior designer watched video of the protest on social media, and saw her life plan falling apart. The woman and her husband, who requested anonymity to avoid retribution, had purchased a three-bedroom unit in the sprawling Xinli City project presale three years earlier. It should have been finished that November. It wasn’t until she saw the video that she learned construction had stopped three months earlier.”

“Like the vast majority of Chinese homebuyers, they had begun making payments before construction was completed. For years, this type of arrangement, which accounts for more than 80% of China’s home sales, gave developers easy access to funds and fueled rapid expansion as home prices soared. But with financing drying up and debts coming due, the resulting cash crunch has left thousands of units unfinished, and owners boycotting their mortgages in protest.”

“Demands for answers have elicited excuses, threats or detention, the woman said, and has pushed Xinli City homeowners to take desperate measures. Last month, she stopped paying her 30-year mortgage, along with thousands of others who had bought half-built homes there. ‘It’s gotten to the point where no one is taking care of it. So we naturally also have to defend our own rights,’ said the woman. ‘If we the people are not happy, it’s difficult to have a stable society.'”

“What was once a virtuous cycle has turned vicious. Home prices fell for the 11th straight month in July, and dozens of developers have defaulted on their debts. The impact has rippled through land sales, labor, construction materials and home appliances. ‘We are seeing it everywhere,’ said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management. ‘You get these spreading waves, and the bigger the sector is, the more powerful those waves are. And in China, unfortunately, the property sector is huge.'”

“For the interior designer, buying a home someday was always a given. One month after their child was born in the summer of 2019, they went looking for apartments. Now the unfinished property in Xinli City looms over their lives. She and her husband have trouble sleeping at night. The authorities from her hometown have called her and even sought out her parents to try to get her to stop demanding that construction restart. To her embarrassment, many back home know about her predicament and seemed to be sneering at her behind her back.”

“‘But did we do anything wrong?’ she asked. ‘Our money wasn’t stolen or snatched, every person worked hard to earn it. We just want to live and work in peace and contentment.’ She said they have sunk their life savings, about $104,000, into the apartment. Her anxieties about money worsened during the two-month lockdown in Shanghai, when work from clients stalled and her income plunged. Even though her earnings have since returned to normal, she doesn’t see the point in paying more for a house that may not ever be completed.”

“She had hoped collective action would force a response. So far she’s been bitterly disappointed. ‘For us, buying a home in the province capital already isn’t easy. Now the home is gone, our money is gone, our household is having issues,’ she said. ‘I don’t have much faith in life anymore because of this.'”

“In Nanchang, banks and developers have remained silent on Xinli City’s future. Gu, a 32-year-old construction worker who declined to give his first name, has lost his appetite waiting for news on the project. He had purchased his apartment in the spring of 2020, back when an insolvent building and a two-year-plus pandemic still felt unimaginable. He didn’t think it was possible that such a large development could collapse. Now, the idea of buying a home, particularly one that’s yet to be built, leaves him with a headache and mild sense of panic. ‘There are too many unstable factors,’ he said.”

“In the wake of the boycotts, he’s noticed a similar shift among others around him — those who once harbored hopes of buying property no longer have that desire. ‘In this economy, cash is king, having money on hand is most important,’ he said. ‘Buying a home probably isn’t under consideration anymore.'”

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This Post Has 128 Comments

  1. BTW I didn’t see any interesting videos yesterday.

    ‘I said I’d try to get the auction atmosphere, and get people closer to that price. So the seller was very happy he listened to me’

    Another scalp fer yer belt, eh Bryan? Oh well, the market needs knife catchers.

  2. ‘The number of new homes sitting on the market is up significantly. The three-month moving average of active listings in the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems jumped from 933 in April to 2,915 in June – an increase of more than 200% in 90 days’

    You mean they can build more of these things? These permits sinking like a turd in a well: are some people going to be out of a job? If you drive around north of DFW, it’s a beehive of cement trucks and supply deliveries and highly paid Guatemalans. What happens to this activity? Poof.

  3. ‘Demands for answers have elicited excuses, threats or detention, the woman said…The authorities from her hometown have called her and even sought out her parents to try to get her to stop demanding that construction restart’

    And they are all afraid to even give their names. We should never have commercially engaged with these thugs.

    1. Unless we send the tyrants packing, soon people here will be afraid of showing their faces too

  4. ‘through the first seven months of 2022 compared to year-ago numbers in Celina (down 42%), Frisco (down 36%), and McKinney (down 30%), according to Addison-based Tomlin Investments, which tracks new home construction north of Dallas-Fort Worth. Home permits are also lower in Princeton (down 23%), Prosper (down 19%), and Anna (down 3%)’

    These places weren’t even considered part of DFW in 2007. Look at the prices up there. It’s not $350k shacks.

  5. ‘One person I know of who was selling a $5 million house in the Hamptons even threw in a free Mercedes 280SL’

    You too can finance a car for 30 years with interest.

    1. I wonder how much of this is brandon releasing 1 million barrels of oil daily from our wartime oil reserves?

      1. This is to keep the plebs happy and out swiping their charge cards to support the consumer economy during the summer months while the kids are on school break, but the music will wind down after Labor Day.

          1. At that point, SUV drivers will be fully adapted to artificially cheap gasoline, making the post election price spike all the more painful.

      2. “I wonder how much of this is brandon releasing 1 million barrels of oil daily from our wartime oil reserves?“

        – Zero. We’re going into a major global recession, IMHO. Global asset bubbles inflated by central banks on the way up. Global asset bubbles deflated by central banks on the way down. This is the “Everything Bubble” In the U.S. Think dot com bubble + housing bubble 1.0, and then add a lot more debt + bond bubble; the mother of all bubbles, aka the central bank bubble. China also drank the Kool-aid. In my view, don’t expect a soft landing as multiple asset bubbles burst at the same time. Central banks are evil. End the Fed.

      3. I wonder how much of this is brandon releasing 1 million barrels of oil daily from our wartime oil reserves?

        Brandon’s plummeting polling numbers don’t constitute a national emergency of the sort the strategic reserve was meant for.

  7. Mar Vista Real Estate Q2 2022
    Premiered 15 hours ago Mar Vista Real Estate 2022 went from an exploding hot seller’s market at the start of the year to a market impacted by a possible:

    Recession
    Raised Interest Rates
    Inflation.

    This video breaks down the truth based on the number because the numbers never lie!

    We are dialing in Mar Vista’s 2nd Quarter so that by the end of this video you will be able to fully understand

    1. What type of market we are experiencing.
    2. What it takes to win as a buyer or seller in this market.
    3. Has Inflation, Recession, & Interest Rates impacted demand?
    4. How to make sure your home goes over asking in this market.
    5. Find out the numbers actually mean for you as a buyer & seller in 2022 in Mar Vista to win.

    Are homes still going over the asking price??

    Make sure you stick around until the end to see examples of homes going above and beyond the asking price and homes going down the rabbit hole with price reductions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnaHCQq-R2g

    13 minutes.

    1. “How to make sure your home goes over asking in this market.”

      It’s ridiculously simple. Price 20% below the recent comps. You will not only get over asking, but you will foster a bidding war that reveals the current market value of your home. If you don’t like the highest offer, you can wait until next year and try again.

      Try not to hold onto your falling 🔪 forever, though.

  8. “…Not for a higher price, because it actually slowed down the market a little bit, but it actually gives them the opportunity to buy the house for the price that it’s valued at,’ Melissa Correa with Ameriuno said.”

    Right. Until next month, and the month after that, and the month after that…etc. etc. when they realize they caught a falling knife.

  9. Re: if they just sit tight long enough, the market will turn foolish again

    They are not wrong. It is just a matter of time before Transitory Powell and his cohorts abruptly make an about face and turn their funny money spigots on full blast once again because that is the only thing they have ever known.

    After all, sanity is just a temporary disruption of the accepted state of affairs in financial markets . . .

    1. Do they know how much tightening will be required after ‘unprecedented’ money creation? Let’s see what happens with inflation. We haven’t been in a spot like this before.

      1. I wonder just how committed they are to fighting inflation. Do they want to stop it or just keep it under 10 percent

        1. committed they are to fighting inflation

          This may not be the determining factor. The biggest bubbles in history required the biggest mania. Manias end and the mighty Fed tools can’t hold bubbles up when the mania vaporizes.

        2. The Fed has a dual mandate. Keep employment high and inflation low. Since they can’t do both at the same time, they pick whichever one pleases the White House on the given day. Since the job numbers are still high at the moment, Powell is “committed” to fighting inflation. At the moment.

          1. Since they can’t do both

            It must be immensely amusing to them to get you to believe a narrative that is not only false, it’s blatantly self contradicting!

          3. This reply is to BlueSky more than Oxide.
            Spot on, Sir. Could not agree with you more.
            –Geezer.
            They (TheFed) are an awesome bunch of liars and thieves.

        3. They likely wish to avoid reliving the 1970s scenario, when on-again, off-again monetary tightening led to a protracted period of double-digit inflation. This episode was only reined in by Paul Volcker’s train wreck monetary policy that resulted in a painful double recession early in the 1980s.

  10. The Haitian sensation appreciates the question because it was given to her along with every other question she got 3 days ago and rehearsed the answers that were written for her.

    At her briefings, if she can’t read an answer she never has an answer.

    RNC Research
    @RNCResearch

    ABC’S JONATHAN KARL: “Isn’t it almost Orwellian? How can you call it the Inflation Reduction Act when the nonpartisan experts say it’s not gonna bring inflation down?”

    KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “I appreciate the question.”

    https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1558814462198616066
    s=20&t=11Yi5bwEkzCKdcNN2Y9X5g

    0:45 is more than enough.

    https://youtu.be/sVHFhA5dlB8?t=168

  11. Fake news trying to hype that Trump selling necular information to Russians. So, they are back to the Russian Hoax again.
    I just can’t believe that fake news can say stuff like that, without any proof at all.

    Yet, Alex Jones states a temporary opinion that Sandy Hook was a false flag or hoax ,that he later retracted, yet he is charged mega millions in that kangaroo court.

    Biden tells US Citizens to take the jab, its safe and effective, you won’t get Covid , which lured people to death, injury and getting Covid. A President defrauding the Public , like some pimp for Big Pharmaceuticals, but that’s ok. Biden causing people to get fired if they don’t take a expiermental vaccine.
    Fake news doing everything possible to censor dispute or informed consent on the vaccines, yet that’s ok, because they have to right to lie to get jabs in arms.
    Nobody died over Alex Jones stating a temporary opinion . The parents that sued were distraught over a temporary opinion from alternative news, from a known conspiracy talking head like Alex Jones. Actually , it turns out a lot of what he has said throughout the years, turns out to be right.
    But the constant fake news narratives is criminal in the damage it has done, and continues to do.
    Unbelievable.

    1. “Yet, Alex Jones states a temporary opinion that Sandy Hook was a false flag or hoax ,that he later retracted, yet he is charged mega millions in that kangaroo court.”

      The PTB wished all those Sandy Hook videos into the cornfield including Robbie Parker laughing right before he hyperventilates and put on the crying act for his press conference the day his child was murdered?

      Not to mention the areal Firehouse shot with Gene Rosen on his phone when he was supposed to be handing out teddy bears to 5 kids from the class that got shot up who somehow got on a school bus and were dropped off at his house? I won’t mention the supervisor who grabbed the wandering kid and dragged him into the line that was circling in and out of the firehouse to make a show for the cameras or the 26 Christmas trees the areal shot showed were already there.

      More than that but you get the picture.

      Having said that I don’t know if anyone was killed or not, God rest their souls if they were but there was a lot of Hollywood in Connecticut that day and the following weeks.

      1. Jeff,
        I have seen some information that’s really odd involving the Sandy Hook also. But given the kind of fake news and false flags that is obvious now in so many areas, Alex Jones could of been right about it.
        Look at all the theories about 911, JFK, weapons of mass destruction, walk on the moon, etc. I still think the first amendment gives right to opinion. There has been books written on the Sandy Hook Hoax why didn’t those people get sued for their so called conjecture? They wanted to take Alex Jones out , simple as that.

    2. “Trump selling necular information to Russians.”

      I haven’t seen that. Could you please post a link?

      2. PB,
        It was on live CBS news professor bear . Don’t worry you will probably see the narrative repeated on CNN also.

  12. A couple days ago we heard of migrants threatening the drivers on the buses from Texas to NY, for not stopping in Chattanooga:

    ————-
    “What we have heard is that they are threatening the drivers from time to time, and they’re wanting to get to where their friends are,” Blackburn told co-host Steve Doocy. “They look at this Steve, as a safe passage, if you will, across the country because they’re being given that free bus ride to wherever they want to go. And, of course, the sanctuary city policies that many cities across the country have, these large, big blue cities, not Chattanooga, but they have set up – the cartels have been free to kind of set up shop.”
    —————

    So if I understand this correctly, word got out that Chattanooga was an established stop for these buses. So some of those migrants never intended to go to NY. They were using the bus only to transfer their drugs and girls to Chattanooga, where planted cartel agents would intercept. That’s why migrants got mad when drivers no longer stopped there. Well, I suppose I should give the cartels points for cleverness, but this is ridiculous. This is no longer about a better life.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/sen-blackburn-warns-migrants-texas-buses-threatening-drivers-we-need-end

    1. Be very skeptical of MLS and Realtor data and their babble of course. Over and over again they’ve published bad information…. basically disinformation for years straight.

    3. I wouldn’t be looking at national data. The western half of the country is leading this bust. Personally, I anticipate a purchase in the next 2 years but I sold a home in September 2020 with 20 years of equity.

          1. That’s greater Phoenix only. That’s most of the shacks in Arizona. Tucson has theirs, Coconino, Yavapai, Mohave counties have theirs. Greater Prescott is one. Chino Valley, Yuma, Page, Sedona, Verde Valley, Payson area. Flagstaff might have a ‘special’ one of their own, not sure. White Mountains probably.

  14. Interesting FOAF story. Sister (of friend) buys a little tiny 2bdrm/ba house on Long Island NY in January. Pays over asking at 461 (yes insane). Scrapes it, builds entirely new 4bdrm/3ba house on old foundation and puts back on market by end of April at 979k. (now as an aside, that’s some insane building. you can’t even get a quote in 4 months and they rebuilt an entire house? permits and everything? in NY no less). Goes under contract mid May. Falls out of contract late May. Still on the market. Finally reduced price to 959 (seriously?) and had an open house this last weekend. (no lookers).

    so 461k to buy, gotta be AT LEAST 400k in construction costs (labor, materials, payoffs, permits, etc). (the outside is a little bland but the inside is nice, not 980k nice but nice). so you’re at 860k before interest, taxes (which must be insane on LI), etc. Minus the 6% UHS fee?

    They are already at breakeven. They can’t be the only ones.

    2. ” gotta be AT LEAST 400k in construction costs (labor, materials, payoffs, permits, etc). ”

      It just gots to be!!🤣🤣🤣

      Post a link of the dump and we’ll get it down to within 10% of actual.

      Oakton, VA Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY As Biden Appointees Bring Mortgage Fraud To Unprecendented Levels Across Washington DC Area

      https://www.movoto.com/oakton-va/market-trends/

    3. Ahh well, at least the housing stock in that area gets an upgraded unit at that address. In 40 years the same thing will happen to the upgrade.

  16. From yesterday:
    —-
    rms
    August 15, 2022 at 7:17 am
    Already morbidly obese at 14-yrs of age?
    —-

    At Wal-Mart I’ve seen toddlers on their way to being morbidly obese. More and more I’m convinced it’s not just stuff-your-face issue. It’s a liver issue from the seed oils and the HFCS. I looked at the ingredients in the cheaper baby formulas: Soybean or canola oil, with corn syrup solids. It’s basically Coffee Mate. Screwed up liver –> screwed up metabolism. They’re getting fat even if they eat normal amounts of food. (Of course it doesn’t help if they keep eating junk food as they grow up).

    1. We had to put our kid on a special formula due to a dietary issue. I read the ingredients list and my husband and I both commented that it sounded like coffee creamer. The stuff looks and smells disgusting. It’s also not cheap. I’m counting down to when I can put our kid on solid food and start giving her vegetables.

      1. You “had to” put your baby on toxic corn syrup solids and industrial oil aka canola? Boing plop thud crunch bang

        1. Have you ever dealt with a baby that screamed 20 hours per day because of feeding issues? I’m going to guess not based on your comment.

        2. I’ve know plenty of women, including myself, for whom breast-feeding wasn’t an option for medical reasons.

          1. I’m grateful we live in a time where not being able to breast feed does not mean your child will starve.

    2. I mentioned this before our mom almost never had any “junk” food in the house, if we wanted any we would have to go to the neighbor’s house and play with their kids and their mom would bring out all the gooey snacks…

      1. We never had any store bought junk food, but always cookies. I remember when I was 6 or 8 there were some sugar and butter sandwiches.

        1. yeah Entemanns and Pepperidge farms from my hometown…mom never bought any of those 99 cent fake chocolate chemical “cookies”

        2. Your cookies were probably made with real butter and real sugar. Carbs will make you fat …. eventually; like age 35+. But as a kid you can handle it. Humans can’t handle seed oils or HFCS at any age.

    1. The Financial Times
      Chinese economy
      China cuts lending rate as economic data disappoint and Covid cases rise
      Central bank intervenes as world’s second-biggest economy suffers lockdowns and property market malaise
      A delivery man transports home appliances in Beijing. China’s retail sales, an important gauge of consumption, rose just 2.7% year on year in July
      William Langley in Hong Kong and Edward White in Seoul yesterday

      China has cut a crucial lending rate in an effort to shore up growth as the world’s second-biggest economy is buffeted by repeated Covid lockdowns and a worsening property crisis.

      The People’s Bank of China on Monday reduced its medium-term lending rate, for one-year loans to the banking system, by 10 basis points to 2.75 per cent, the first cut since January. Analysts had expected the central bank to leave the rate unchanged.

      The decision highlighted deepening anxiety in Beijing as it tries to combat a decline in consumer demand triggered by its drawn-out zero-Covid policy, as well as the fallout from cash-strapped property developers and slowing global growth.

      Official statistics released on Monday reflected worse than expected consumer and factory activity and a rise in youth unemployment to a record 19.9 per cent, piling more pressure on Xi Jinping’s administration to reinvigorate the economy.

      Retail sales, an important gauge of consumption, rose only 2.7 per cent year on year in July compared to a forecast 5 per cent, while industrial production was 3.8 per cent higher compared to a forecast 4.6 per cent.

      Despite Beijing’s plans to inject hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus to boost growth, China’s economy only narrowly escaped a contraction in the second quarter.

      Experts expect China’s economic slowdown to prompt looser monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, but some are pessimistic about the scale and speed of Beijing’s response.

      “China’s growth in [the second half] will be significantly hindered by its zero-Covid strategy, the downward spiral of the property markets and a likely slowdown of export growth,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist. “Beijing’s policy support could be too little, too late and too inefficient.”
      …

      1. The Financial Times
        Chinese business & finance
        ‘Financial monsters’: China’s bad banks complicate property crisis
        Distressed asset management companies highlight the challenge Beijing faces in mobilising rescue options
        Workers leave an Evergrande residential development in Beijing in July
        China’s deepening property crisis has compounded the country’s slowing economic growth
        Edward White in Auckland and Cheng Leng in Hong Kong
        August 4 2022

        To contain the fallout from the Asian financial crisis two decades ago, Beijing set up a group of bad banks and packed them with the country’s most toxic debts. But with deepening distress in China’s property sector threatening to spark wider economic turmoil, those bad banks are now struggling to help.

        The problem is that the balance sheets of China’s “Big Four” asset management companies — China Cinda Asset Management, China Huarong Asset Management, China Great Wall Asset Management and China Orient Asset Management — have become so bloated that their capacity is restricted.

        The groups are “financial monsters”, said Chen Long, a partner at Beijing-based consultancy Plenum. “I would not count on them to play a big part” in addressing the property crisis,” he added.

        While the world’s most indebted developer China Evergrande has taken the spotlight in the country’s spiralling property crisis, stress at the bad banks reveals Beijing’s challenge to mobilise rescue options.

        It also underscores the impact of President Xi Jinping’s deleveraging campaign, which has destabilised highly indebted developers, and underscores the risks asset management companies face from a property crisis that they are needed to help ease.

        Established in the 1990s, the bad banks expanded far beyond their mandate, becoming financial conglomerates fuelled by debt from investors at home and abroad. Huarong, the biggest bad-debt manager, was bailed out in 2021 after delaying the reveal of a $16bn loss for months.

        A debt restructuring is now expected for Great Wall after the company held off releasing its 2021 annual report in June, another signal of weakness across the sector even as its services become more important to the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

        Huarong’s problems spooked investors in China’s dollar-bond market in April 2021, prompting ratings downgrades and warnings from global agencies.

        Though the trading recovered following the bailout announcement, investors are sensitive about the health of China AMCs. They sold bonds off again in July after Great Wall missed its reporting deadline. Huarong’s 4.25 per cent $37mn perpetual bond fell from 91 to 75 cents on the dollar in July before recovering to about 79 cents in August.

        Together, the bad banks have about Rmb5tn ($740bn) in total assets and have resolved Rmb400bn of bad debts in the property market in 2021, one-fifth of the total, according to a Bank of China International estimate.

        In the People’s Bank of China’s latest attempt to tame rising discontent over unfinished apartments — including a growing mortgage boycott — central bankers are seeking to mobilise state bank loans from a Rmb200bn funding pool for stalled property developments.

        The AMCs have been included in the rescue discussions with central bankers and housing regulators since Evergrande defaulted on its debt last year, according to bank and AMC executives.

        Orient and Great Wall raised Rmb10bn bonds each in March to “resolve the risk of quality property projects and rescue the soured debt of the sector”, according to the bond prospectuses.

        Cinda stationed one executive on Evergrande’s board and another on its risk resolution committee to help with its restructuring proposal, which is now delayed after missing its self-imposed deadline of July 31. Distressed developers such as Sunac China Holdings and Fantasia Holdings are also actively talking to AMCs about potential rescue plans. City-level bailout funds have also been set up under assistance of AMCs.

        But the scale of the funding support from AMCs is expected to be selective and cautious, said David Yin, vice-president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service, as they already hold large exposure to property developers.

        The groups are inextricably linked with the property crisis, said Xiaoxi Zhang, a China financial analyst with Gavekal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research group.

        The AMC’s are “substantial creditors” to the property developers, with the sector accounting for between 25 per cent and 42 per cent of total debt assets.

        “The ongoing defaults by developers indicate that the effects of the property downturn on financial institutions are still building,” said Zhang in a recent report. “Regulators have pushed the AMCs to reduce their exposure to property, but it remains the single largest sector in their portfolios,” she added.
        …

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      1 hour ago
      S&P 500 Futures Touch Widest Net-Short Position Since Summer 2020
      By Hannah Miao

      The S&P 500’s recent rally hasn’t stopped investors from betting on the benchmark’s decline—or at least hedging against that risk.

      Positioning in S&P 500 futures is at its most net-short—meaning more futures traders are betting that the index will fall than rise—since June 2020, according to FactSet.
      …

    2. ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry dumps stock portfolio after market crash warnings
      By Thomas Barrabi
      August 15, 2022 4:24pm Updated
      Famous ‘Big Short’ investor warns of devastating economic policy

      Michael Burry’s Scion Capital Management dumped his entire stock portfolio in the second quarter as the “Big Short” hedge fund legend stepped up his warnings about a looming stock market crash, a filing showed on Monday.

      Scion sold off its long positions on 11 companies during the second quarter, including bullish bets on Google parent Alphabet, Facebook parent Meta, Bristol-Meyers Squibb and Nexstar Media Group, according to the company’s latest 13-F filing.

      The holdings were cumulatively worth $165 million at the end of the first quarter.
      …
      https://nypost.com/2022/08/15/michael-burry-dumps-stock-portfolio-after-market-crash-warnings/

    3. The Financial Times
      Berkshire Hathaway Inc
      Warren Buffett’s Berkshire reins in stock purchases and books $43.8bn loss
      Sharp slowdown in new investment comes as market turmoil hits value of portfolio
      Warren Buffett said earlier this year that Berkshire’s spree of stock purchases was likely to slow as the year progressed
      Eric Platt in New York August 6 2022

      Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dramatically slowed new investment in the second quarter after setting a blistering pace at the start of the year, as the US stock market sell-off pushed the insurance-to-railroad conglomerate to a $43.8bn loss.

      Berkshire said on Saturday that the drop in global financial markets had weighed heavily on its stock portfolio, which fell in value to $328bn, from $391bn at the end of March. The $53bn booked loss in the three months to June far outweighed an upbeat quarter for its businesses, which improved their profitability.

      The company’s filing with US securities regulators showed its purchases of new stocks dwindled to about $6.2bn in the quarter, down from the $51.1bn it spent between January and March — a spurt that surprised Berkshire shareholders. Berkshire sold $2.3bn of stocks in the latest three-month period.

      Berkshire also spent $1bn buying back its own shares in June, a commonly used tactic when Buffett and his investment team find fewer appealing targets in the market.

      The 91-year-old investor signalled at the company’s annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, in April that the spree of multibillion-dollar stock purchases was likely to slow as the year progressed, saying that the atmosphere in the company’s headquarters had become more “lethargic”.

      Investors will get a more detailed update on how Berkshire’s stock portfolio has changed later this month, when the company and other big money managers disclose their investments to regulators. Separate filings show the company has increased its stake in energy company Occidental Petroleum in recent months.

      Berkshire’s mammoth cash and Treasury holdings were little changed from the end of March, falling less than $1bn to $105.4bn.

      While net income slid from a $5.5bn profit at the year’s start to a $43.8bn loss, operating income — which excludes the ups and downs of Berkshire’s stock positions — rose 39 per cent to $9.3bn. That included a $1.1bn currency-related gain on its non-US dollar debt.
      …

  20. Call it a hunch, call it an intuition, but I’m beginning to suspect we may be in the early stages of a bursting housing bubble.

  21. The three-month moving average of active listings in the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems jumped from 933 in April to 2,915 in June – an increase of more than 200% in 90 days, according to an analysis of NTREIS data by Dallas-based HomesUSA.com.

    Get to sawin’ and slashin’ like you mean it, Greedheads. This is as good as it gets for sellers.

  22. “In 2022, the frequency of canceled deals has begun to rise again, reaching nearly 15% in June — the highest rate since the pandemic peak, according to Redfin, representing about 60,000 failed home sales across the nation.

    Is that a lot?

  23. ‘For about three weeks in a row, [buyers] woke up to a 5-gallon bucket of ice water thrown in their face,’ said Rob Smith, a broker with Keller Williams.

    That wasn’t ice water.

  24. ‘That really was awesome because that was basically the closing costs, so I didn’t need to add or to get that money,’ Neurauter said.”

    Stupid is no way to go through life, Yara.

  26. The Financial Times
    4 hours ago
    US homebuilder confidence falls as housing affordability weakens
    Alexandra White in New York

    US homebuilder confidence fell in August, as high home prices, construction costs and interest rates threatened housing affordability and depressed demand.

    The National Association of Home Builders’ housing market index for August dropped 6 points to 49, below economists’ forecasts of 55, according to a Refinitiv poll.

    This is the first time since May 2020 that a reading has fallen below the break-even threshold of 50.

    “Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist.

    The report’s housing market index showed that its indices of traffic for prospective buyers, current sales conditions and expectations in the next six months all fell.

    Traffic from prospective buyers fell 16 points to 32, as more buyers are excluded from an expensive housing market.

    Waning demand has forced about 19 per cent of homebuilders surveyed to reduce prices in the past month to increase sales or limit cancellations. The majority of builders surveyed blamed higher interest rates for the falling housing demand.
    …

  27. ‘Fourteen FBI whistleblowers have come forward to provide information to Republican congressional investigations, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said Sunday, about a week after the FBI raided former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.’

    “Fourteen FBI agents have come to our office as whistleblowers, and they are good people,” Jordan told Fox News. “There are lots of good people in the FBI. It’s the top that is the problem.”

    “Some of these good agents are coming to us, telling us … what’s going on—the political nature now of the Justice Department … talking about the school board issue, about a whole host of issues,” he added.’

    ‘Two months ago, Jordan said that six FBI whistleblowers approached the committee. Two came forward in relation to a school board memo and four in connection to the Jan. 6 Capitol breach. In the Senate, meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said in July that whistleblowers had come to his office to provide information, including disclosures relating to investigations into Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings.’

    “It’s becoming a well-worn trail of agents who say this has got to stop, and thank goodness for them and that American people recognize it, and I believe they’re going to make a big change on November 8,” Jordan said Sunday, referring to the 2022 midterm elections.’

    ‘In June, Jordan sent a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray warning that several former FBI officials were coming forward while alleging the agency is “purging” employees who have conservative views.’

    “In one such example, the FBI targeted and suspended the security clearance of a retired war servicemember who had disclosed personal views that the FBI was not being entirely forthcoming about the events of January 6,” he wrote in a press release. ‘The FBI questioned the whistleblower’s allegiance to the United States despite the fact that the whistleblower honorably served in the United States military for several years—including deployments in Kuwait and Iraq—valiantly earning multiple military commendation medals.”

    ‘It comes as Republicans stepped up calls on Sunday for the release of an FBI affidavit showing the justification for its seizure of documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/14-fbi-whistleblowers-have-come-forward-rep-jordan_4665530.html

  29. Home prices drop on Whidbey Island
    KING 5
    Aug 12, 2022 The door is opening to more homebuyers in Island County.

    The Northwest Multiple Listing Service states Island and Ferry counties are the only ones in the state to see their home prices drop between July of 2021 and this July.

    One home in Oak Harbor is a prime example. The fully remodeled house with a water view originally listed for $785,000. The sellers dropped the price 20% to $650,000 after an unheard of 80 days on the market.

    “I’m absolutely surprised this one is still on the market,” said Realtor Jim Woessner.

    He believes a combination of rising interest rates and a flood of houses on the market are driving the drop.

    He calls it “the shift.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQbIXEcn6Dw

    1:35.

  30. Fauci discusses “The Fauci Effect” which occurs “because I symbolize integrity and truth.”
    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/08/15/truth-integrity/

    Author | August 15, 2022 | tags
    Fauci caused pandemic, fauci dog experiment, Fauci funded gain of function at Wuhan, Fauci is a fµcking liar, Fauci is a mass murderer, Fauci is a psychopath, Fauci is an evil fµck, Fauci is Mengele

  31. For anyone interested, this guy does a very detailed daily update on military operations in Ukraine using western, Russian, and Ukrainian sources.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA

    There is a lot of detail but the daily reports almost all have the same theme, there are sporadic successes on the frontlines by the Ukrainians but overall the Russians are grinding through them with relentless shelling and then mopping up with 2nd and 3rd string troops and local militias. Casualties on the Ukrainian side are running about 500-1000 per day.

    Out of curiosity I tried to see what it would cost to buy a house in the Crimea on the black sea but foreigners are not allowed to own property in desirable coastal areas. I thought I’d see really cheap properties for a war zone but prices looked shockingly high considering the circumstances.

  33. Looks like the Democrat-Bolsheviks better start drawing up plans for more “affordable housing” patronage and graft projects once they settle these Democrat-on-Arrival migrants in the red states.

    2,200 border crossers in ONE day: Shocking footage of Rio Grande shows no signs of border crisis slowing as Republican Rep. says Guatemala has offered to help – but Biden and Kamala haven’t called

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11113985/Video-2-200-migrants-cross-Del-Rio-sector-ONE-DAY-Rep-says-Guatemala-offered-help.html

        1. “The Don’s legal headaches”

          Kinda like the legal headaches Hitler’s opponents had when a purge took place in Nazi Germany from June 30 to July 2, 1934 during Operation Hummingbird.

    1. “Kyrie Eleison /Анастасия Гладилина //Хор Сретенского Монастыря
      Анастасия Гладилина”

      I’ll go along with James.

      Comments

      James Dotson
      2 years ago
      Thank you. This choir sings this prayer so beautifully. “Lord have Mercy” on us all during this dark time.

    2. Anastasia Gladilina // Sretensky Monastery Choir (Orthodox Christian monastery in Russia)

    5. The Kyrie is the penitential portion of the Liturgy. Translated, it’s:

      Lord Have Mercy
      Christ Have Mercy
      Lord Have Mercy

      Or in Greek:
      Kyrie eleison
      Christe eleison
      Kyrie eleison

      After this is recited by the congregation the Priest (in the Latin rite) will then say: May almighty God have mercy on us, forgive us our sins, and bring us to everlasting life.

      In Eastern Orthodox liturgies, “Kyrie Elesion” (Lord have mercy) is a common responsorial, recited many times during the liturgy.

        1. Completely agree with this comment: Mozart’s dies irae sounds like a record of what someone thinks the days of wrath would be like.
          Verdi’s version sounds like the actual days of wrath. Can’t beat Mozart’s lacrimosa though

  38. For the JoshuaTree users out there, a fix is live for Chrome and on the way for Firefox (once my account lock times out for forgetting my password :/). Let me know if v4.11.4 doesn’t resolve any issues you’ve been seeing the past couple of days.

    Thanks!

  39. ‘We Just Don’t Need the Vast Majority of the Population’ – Top WEF Advisor Harari

    by Kelen McBreen
    August 15th 2022,

    Yuval Noah Harari, one of the World Economic Forum’s top advisors and a close friend of the group’s founder Klaus Schwab, is back in the news after making outlandish remarks fit for a Bond villain.

    Speaking with The TED Audio Collective podcast last week, Harari promoted his post-Great Reset dystopia for humanity.

    “Part of what might be going [on] is people realize — and they’re correct in thinking that, ‘The future doesn’t need me. You have all these smart people in California, in New York and in Beijing and they are planning this amazing future with artificial intelligence and bioengineering and global connectivity and whatnot and they don’t need me. Maybe if they are nice, they will throw some crumbs my way, like universal basic income.’ But it’s much worse psychologically to feel that you are useless than to feel that you are exploited,” Harari explained.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/we-just-dont-need-the-vast-majority-of-the-population-top-wef-advisor-harari/

    1. ‘We Just Don’t Need the Vast Majority of the Population’ – Top WEF Advisor Harari

      What is odd is that the west is Hell bent on importing low IQ immigrants who are in many cases not even skilled enough to perform menial jobs

    2. Dr Harari, represents what this “CULT” wants to use technology for. The massive elimination of the human race. All the useless eaters that won’t be needed anymore .
      This Dr Harari talks about humans being hacked against their will, and free will is gone for the human race .
      In a normal World this Dr Harari would be deemed a threat to society, and probably arrested for hate speech and advocate for genocide and forced hacking and scheme for forced imprisonment of humans.
      But no, this creep is held up as a esteemed advisor to the WEF, and Klaus Schwab.
      Klaus Schwabs father helped Hitler on projects, and we don’t think Klaus is a Nazi Elite who wants to bring on some Master Race Corporate Governance Stakeholders Dictorship.
      Truly a insurrection by nutcakes.

      1. It is chilling that they feel so comfortable dropping the mask and saying what they want to do to the world. They must be very confident in their various deep states and quislings around the globe and have little to no fear of any meaningful pushback. They let the disarmed protest all they want, in the end, they are ignored. Yellow vests, farmers, truckers, in the end protests accomplish nothing.

        I saw a comment on another blog: ‘I’m tired of seeing Republicans “eviscerate” Democrats. The Left doesn’t care, they just run roughshod over everything and everyone, and get and do what they want.’

      2. Truly a insurrection by nutcakes.

        Not nutcakes. If they were merely insane, they would be easy to defeat.

        These people are evil.

        1. A quick search turns up this 4m10s YT video: Who is Klaus Schwab? Who is Klaus’s Father? And What Are His Ties To Nazi Germany?

  40. Colorado,

    Evil no doubt. .
    But I would argue that there is some kind of psychopathic insanity involved.
    This Cult has spent over a hundred years , trying to figure out how to defeat humanity.
    They are parasites, that have looted humanity , now they want to get rid of their hosts, because they think they have techno!ogy and A.I. to replace them, and enslave them, and you know they want to kill populations.
    They are dangerous because they are evil, I agree with you, but some kind of insanity is at play here.
    For instance Bill Gates wants to block out the sun, get rid of cattle , vaccinate the globe, where these actions could spell the extinction of life. That’s insanity.
    Its like when parasites kill their host, they end up dying.
    They are talking like they are Gods, which is sorta insane . Some kind of mass psychosis within their group.
    But I’m willing to call it just outright e-v-i-l, as I have called it many times.

    1. But I would argue that there is some kind of psychopathic insanity involved.

      They are too well organized to just be a bunch of lunatics. For now they are nearly unstoppable.

      1. Yep, extremely organized, with every step pre-planned.
        But, executing a plan in real life, especially a plan that’s so evil, could fail.
        Taking over the World, and herding billions of people into slavery , or death, is a pretty ambitious plan. Eventually billions will recognize they are in a war, and who the enemy is.

        1. Taking over the World, and herding billions of people into slavery , or death, is a pretty ambitious plan.

          It’s been working like a charm for them so far. And yes, some people are pushing back, and failing miserably.

          Personally, when I consider the timeline of this plan, which goes back decades, if not centuries, meaning that those who helped set it in motion are long dead and gone and had no hope of seeing what they were behind come to fruition, then I can only conclude that this is not the work of mere mortals.

        1. Actually, no. I’ve known Masons all my life and I am sure they are not a giant evil plot to take over the world.

          1. Above 33rd degree? The lower levels don’t know and are their cover. Feel free to do your own research. I wouldn’t expect a freemason to tell you anything because it’s a secret society. There’s a reason JFK warned against secret societies.

          2. FWIW, Roman Catholics have long been forbidden to practice Freemasonry or to be involved with any secret society. Not sure about the Orthodox.

          3. There are plenty of people across social media exposing freemasonry for what it is. You can’t discount it when their stories jive across time and geography.

Comments are closed.