thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Everything Was Going Well, And All Of A Sudden — Bingo

A report from the Orange County Register. “It was a weaker-than-average early winter for Southern California home prices. December and January are known for price dips as house hunters shy from closing on a home purchase around the holidays. My trusty spreadsheet tells me Southern California homes have averaged 2.2% declines during these two months since 1988. And historically speaking, that’s the largest price drop buyers see in a typical year. This time around, the median selling price across the six-county region fell by a combined 4.6% during December and January to $705,000, according to CoreLogic, which tracks closed sales for all residences. It also was the largest two-month decline in the past 12 years and the fifth-biggest dip for any December-January period dating to 1988.”

“San Bernardino: The biggest drop – a 7.9% decline from a record high set in November, vs. 3.3% average dip. San Diego: 5.6% decline vs. 2% average dip. Median of $802,500 is 6% off record $850,000 from July 2023. Los Angeles: 4.8% decline vs. 1.8% average dip. Median of $800,000 – 7% off record $860,000 from April 2022. Ventura: 3.6% decline from a record high set in November vs. 2% average dip. Median of $799,000 is off from a record $828,500. Orange: 3.2% decline from a record high set in November vs. 1.9% average dip. Median of $1.065 million was off from record $1.1 million.”

From KOLD. “An Arizona couple say they are without a permanent place to live after the contractors they hired to construct their dream home allegedly took their money and ran. Elizabeth Matthews and her husband are suing brothers Andrew and Gabriel Carranza for fraud. The couple said they thought they were building the home of their dreams, but instead, they were left with two unfinished houses and are hundreds of thousands of dollars in the hole. ‘We are senior citizens, and we have been waiting our whole life to do this project,’ Matthews told KOLD. ‘We have the right to know where did our money go. It didn’t go to our project.'”

“The couple entered a contract with Settlers West Home Builder LLC in May 2022 to construct a custom home off North First Avenue in the Catalina Foothills, according to an ongoing lawsuit. Settlers West, which was run by the Carranza brothers, was a licensed contracting company at the time, according to the Arizona Registrar of Contractors. The price tag for the main home was more than $1 million, with most of the money coming from a bank loan. Matthews says just one month after signing the contract, they paid the brothers more than $150,000 in deposits. ‘That money was given to them by check, and they cashed that check but didn’t deliver a lot of things. They still haven’t 18 months after that,’ Matthews said. According to the ongoing lawsuit, it will cost the couple at least another $400,000 to complete both homes. That’s if they can find a contractor willing to take on the project with so many loose ends. Right now, the couple are living in a rental home.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Over 96% of Dallas renters are keeping up with their monthly rent payments, according to RealPage. Renters should expect some relief this year as many regions battle with oversupply. The U.S. saw a record number of apartments completed in 2023, accounting for the largest number of new apartment units added in 36 years, RealPage previously reported. The abundance of new apartments is likely to force landlords to temper rent hikes to stay competitive and attractive as population gains play catchup with the new stock. Trammell Crow Residential managing director of multifamily Megan Smith told The Dallas Morning News last month that 2024 and even 2025 may see softening among rents in some Dallas-Fort Worth submarkets due to the abundance of supply and what’s in the pipeline.”

“‘Coming out of 2025 and into 2026, we’ll start to see [multifamily] stabilizing, and there’s going to be a wave of rent growth that we’re capturing going into 2026 and 2027 due to the supply coming online. For now, you’re seeing negative to minimal rent growth,’ Smith said.”

From Bloomberg. “The mood was practically giddy when the heads of two regional banks hosted a town hall in the spring of 2021. The industry’s long drought in mergers was ending, and two lenders below the public’s radar, New York Community Bancorp and Flagstar, were poised to become more formidable by joining forces. Three years later, the lender known for catering to New York City landlords is in serious trouble. Last week, it revealed major weaknesses in its ability to monitor risks and replaced Thomas Cangemi as CEO with the second fiddle at that town hall, Flagstar’s Sandro DiNello. Investors are worried the new boss will set aside even more money to cover souring loans, on top of a $552 million hit that shocked the market in January. Credit raters have slashed it to junk and its shares have cratered 73% this year.”

“Back-to-back acquisitions, first Flagstar and then parts of Signature Bank, almost doubled the firm’s size and set it on a collision course with new rules for banks holding more than $100 billion of assets. The crash came this year. Amid regulatory pressure, NYCB bolstered reserves and shareholders unloaded its stock. NYCB was a stock-market darling before it announced plans in late January to horde cash. ‘Everything was going well, and all of a sudden — bingo — you have a day like that,’ said Michael Manzulli, once the chairman of the bank’s board. ‘And you go: ‘Wow.’”

The Toronto Star in Canada. “Toronto detached home prices have fallen more than any other type of housing in the city since the February 2022 peak — but real estate observers say there’s a resurgence coming for the not-so-humble dream home. Detached homes in Toronto saw demand and prices fall significantly in February this year from the same month two years ago, a report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reveals. Toronto’s detached home market saw a strong rise between February 2020 and February 2022, with a 9.8 per cent increase in sales and a nearly 40 per cent hike in the average price to just over $2 million. But between February 2022 and 2024, both fell significantly: sales decreased by 27.7 per cent, while the average price dropped 20 per cent.”

The Evening Standard in the UK. “London’s leading estate agency Foxtons Group has benefited from rising rental prices boosting lettings, but said house sales slumped by a quarter last year as mortgage costs climbed. The business also revealed its yearly profit tumbled by a third, which it said was due to one-off costs including closing some of its branches. The number of house sales in London dropped by 22% last year, compared with 2022. ‘In fact, transaction volumes were at some of the lowest levels since 2008 and 2020, years impacted by the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 market shutdown respectively,’ Foxtons said.”

From Reuters. “The Swiss National Bank posted an annual loss of 3.2 billion Swiss francs ($3.62 billion) for 2023, it said on Monday, as a switch to positive interest rates cost it dearly and meant it couldn’t pay a dividend for a second straight year. The SNB became the latest central bank to report losses as higher interest rates imposed to fight inflation force them to pay billions to commercial lenders. The German central bank last month said it lost 21.6 billion euros last year, wiping out nearly all of its provisions, while its Dutch counterpart lost 3.5 billion euros.”

Star Weekly in Australia. “Failed home builder Apex Homes received a $100,000 payment from a customer just days before a winding up order was lodged against it over unpaid debts. The customer, who wishes to remain anonymous, claims their financial advisor authorised the payment to Apex three weeks ago, after the company signed a statutory declaration that it was debt free. ‘They (Apex) advise that they didn’t owe anyone any money and that’s why finance released the money ($100,000) to them,’ the customer said.”

“Just days later, on February 15, Aerolink Pty Ltd lodged a winding up order against Apex over debts of $46,000. On Wednesday the Victoria Supreme Court ordered the North Melbourne based builder with projects in Wyndham, Geelong and Melbourne’s north, into liquidation. A further four creditors, including the State Revenue Officer, had joined Aerolink in seeking to have Apex Homes wound up over more than $200,000 in unpaid debts. The anonymous customer, who was seeking to build a home in Geelong with her husband, said they don’t know what to do next. ‘I didn’t sleep last night. It’s so stressful,” she said the day after Judicial Registrar Claire Gitsham ordered the company into liquidation.”

“Co-owner of Point Cook business, Melbourne Wide Demolition, Moira Linton, was awaiting payment of $21,450 from Apex for demolition work when the winding up against the company was lodged. She said the fact Apex didn’t fight the liquidation or even attend the hearing, added insult to injury. Moira Linton said she had lodged her company’s debt with the liquidator and even though this process would cost her more money, she would pursue it regardless. ‘For me, it’s on principle,’ said Ms Linton. ‘Yes I’ve absorbed the hit, but I still want to go after those funds, not for us to get the money, but to actually make a point and try and help those that haven’t got their money back.'”

The Telegraph. “The decision by both Taylor Swift and Coldplay to skip Hong Kong on their 2024 world tours has sparked soul searching in the city, with the Hong Kong Free Press claiming musical acts are ‘shunning’ the region. The snub is emblematic of a broader shift: Western banks, their expat workers and foreign capital are all taking flight from Hong Kong as Beijing exerts an increasingly authoritarian grip on the region. Beijing’s tightening grip, and the associated chilling of free speech and capitalism in the region, is coming at a cost.”

“Hong Kong’s financial secretary Paul Chan announced the first increase in income tax in the region in 20 years on Wednesday, as authorities scramble to fill a growing budget blackhole. In a surprise move, a new top tax rate of 16pc for earnings above HK$5m (£500,000) will be launched from April. Once a major global, free market hub, Hong Kong is slowly turning its back on Western capitalism and its economy is paying the price. ‘The peak position Hong Kong occupied over the past two decades, it has ended,’ says Max Zenglein, chief economist at Germany’s Mercator Institute for China Studies.”

“The turning point was 2020, when China forced through a new national security law that massively reduced Hong Kong’s autonomy and criminalised protesters who called for democracy and freedom of speech. Hong Kong’s hardline pandemic response drove many expats away. ‘2022 was awful,’ says real estate consultant Jonathan Benarr, who moved to Hong Kong in 2014. ‘The Covid restrictions and quarantine requirements just stifled life, so there was quite the exodus. Lots of expats left.’ The economy and Hong Kong’s international status have not recovered from the twin blows. ‘Even the Chinese don’t consider Hong Kong the safe haven it once was,’ Benarr said. He left in February 2022 and has no intention of coming back. ‘It’s not the same city,’ he says. ‘The magic of the place has been severely impacted.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 88 Comments

  1. ‘The couple entered a contract with Settlers West Home Builder LLC in May 2022 to construct a custom home off North First Avenue in the Catalina Foothills, according to an ongoing lawsuit’

    This is in Tucson.

  3. ‘Apex Homes received a $100,000 payment from a customer just days before a winding up order was lodged against it over unpaid debts. The customer, who wishes to remain anonymous, claims their financial advisor authorised the payment to Apex three weeks ago, after the company signed a statutory declaration that it was debt free. ‘They (Apex) advise that they didn’t owe anyone any money and that’s why finance released the money ($100,000) to them’

    They lied right to yer face anonymous customer. The real estate industry operates like that all over.

  4. This time around, the median selling price across the six-county region fell by a combined 4.6% during December and January to $705,000, according to CoreLogic, which tracks closed sales for all residences.

    But…but…muh generational wealth!

  5. ‘Toronto’s detached home market saw a strong rise between February 2020 and February 2022, with a 9.8 per cent increase in sales and a nearly 40 per cent hike in the average price to just over $2 million. But between February 2022 and 2024, both fell significantly: sales decreased by 27.7 per cent, while the average price dropped 20 per cent’

    The K-dn REIC is pedaling hard to spin this. You have to let the distress of the 20% crater work it’s way through before you can pick at yer bottom.

  6. According to the ongoing lawsuit, it will cost the couple at least another $400,000 to complete both homes.

    Why do these greedy old people need two homes?

    1. It’s in the article and looks like part of the scam. They convinced them to build a guest shack even though the primary had gone sideways.

        1. You’d be surprised how often old people – even the sharpest ones you know – become really stupid really fast and start making bad decisions. It might someday happen to you too. Elder abuse and elder scams is a real thing because they are easy to take advantage of.

          1. You’d be surprised how often old people – even the sharpest ones you know – become really stupid really fast and start making bad decisions.

            I dunno, I think Joe from Scranton is able to handle this.

    3. Why do these greedy old people need two homes?

      For the same reason greedy younger people do.

    4. had the same question about this story: TWO homes !?
      * didn’t click on the link as more & more stories are behind paywalls

  7. Right now, the couple are living in a rental home.

    Hey, so we’ve got that in common, but I’m not out hundreds of thousands of dollars like these FBs are.

      1. They think they can keep the empire running with vibrants and mestizos doing the heavy lifting.

        1. “They think they can keep the empire running with vibrants and mestizos doing the heavy lifting.”

          – “Atlas Shrugged” by Ayn Rand
          – Another “How To” manual for living under a totalitarian, Socialist regime. See “1984” by George Orwell.
          – Both were supposed to be warnings.
          – Who is John Galt?
          – Moving to Galt’s Gulch…

        2. We’re going to see a lot more stories of physical infrastructure falling apart, especially when the baby boomers retire. The houses will be in bad shape and the roads full of holes and who knows about the power plants and grid. But the rich will have immaculate lawns.

        3. “They think they can keep the empire running with vibrants and mestizos doing the heavy lifting.”

          With childless Rachel Maddow calling the shots.

      2. Most just want to flip all the purple states blue for the next seven generations, where there is one party national rule, like Mexico’s PRI for 100 years. The rest of the nonsense collateral damage they’ll deal with later, but there is a small contingent of BIPOC politicians that really do hate you, really want you dead.

  11. The SNB became the latest central bank to report losses as higher interest rates imposed to fight inflation force them to pay billions to commercial lenders.

    All of these central bankers are being exposed as the charlatans and criminals that they are.

  12. ‘I didn’t sleep last night. It’s so stressful,” she said the day after Judicial Registrar Claire Gitsham ordered the company into liquidation.”

    Welp, if it’s any consolation, you weren’t throwing away money on rent, Anonymous Customer.

  13. ‘For me, it’s on principle,’ said Ms Linton. ‘Yes I’ve absorbed the hit, but I still want to go after those funds, not for us to get the money, but to actually make a point and try and help those that haven’t got their money back.’”

    Have fun storming the castle.

  14. This is the San Francisco Chronicle:

    For now, at least, San Francisco can no longer be called a progressive city.

    Not after voters approved ballot measures Tuesday to loosen restrictions on the police and screen welfare recipients for drugs, while a measure to boost developers was leading and likely to pass.

    Voters also backed a slate of moderates to run the local Democratic County Central Committee, whose endorsements could reshape who is elected in San Francisco for years. Four years ago, progressives won all but two seats on the DCCC.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/voters-make-it-clear-san-francisco-can-no-longer-be-called-a-progressive-city/ar-BB1jpNlf

    1. “I’m so angry with how Democrats are ruining the city that next time I’m voting for different Democrats”

      Yeah, that’ll fix things.

    3. don’t get too excited about anything in CA.
      all it takes is ONE liberal judge to (continue) ruin the state by nullifying any voter approved proposition.

      like 187. that one pretty much doomed CA. when reversed.

    5. “For now, at least, San Francisco can no longer be called a progressive city.”

      – Well , that’s “progress!” I guess it wasn’t the “right” kind of Socialism.

      – Progressive = Socialist, Leftist, Communist, Collectivist, etc. 🤡 🌎
      See: Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela for examples of failed States.

      “Socialism is Western Civilization in retrograde.” – I said that.

  15. With the Fed steadily wrangling the punch bowl out of risk asset gamblers’ grasp, is now the time to go to 100% equities?

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Benzinga
      Billionaire Wisdom: Larry Fink’s Bold Call — Go All-In on Equities for Maximum Returns
      Aditi Ganguly
      Tue, Mar 5, 2024, 10:35 AM PST
      5 min read
      In this article:

      Larry Fink, who founded BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm, in 1988 (initially under the purview of Blackstone), currently has a net worth of $1.2 billion. He serves as the Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, which currently manages $8.7 trillion in total assets.

      Fink has been a long-time advocate of equities investment, recommending investors put at least 80% of their total discretionary assets into equity investments or hard assets. Fink also stated that investors who have sufficient risk appetite could invest 100% of their total assets in equities.

      While Fink acknowledges the current macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds and their potential impact on the global equity market, the long-term trends are expected to remain positive, creating distinctive opportunities for investors.

      “I think, you know, for a long-term investor, long-term view, who can tolerate market volatility, you should be at least 80 percent in equities or hard assets,” Fink said in an interview with CNBC.

      Let’s look at some of BlackRock’s largest equity holdings.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-wisdom-larry-finks-bold-183534430.html

    2. Updated Thu, Mar 7 2024 12:13 AM EST
      Stock futures tick lower after major averages claw back some of this week’s losses: Live updates
      Samantha Subin
      Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 29, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
      Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Jan. 29, 2024.
      Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

  17. Is there any reason for a viable business to stay in California?

    Maybe businesses that need to locate near the ocean…

    1. Media
      Published March 1, 2024 6:00am EST
      Leaving ‘hotel California’: Business owners torn over exodus share stories of ‘how bad’ things really are
      67% of California employers want to move their HQ out of Golden State, RedBalloon reports
      By Kristen Altus FOXBusiness
      El Cajon, California, Mayor Bill Wells says San Diego’s migrant situation surged from 300 illegal ‘drop-offs’ per day to 4,000 over the last five days on ‘Varney & Co.’ video
      California would rather take down America than give up its open border ideology: Bill Wells

      El Cajon, California, Mayor Bill Wells says San Diego’s migrant situation surged from 300 illegal ‘drop-offs’ per day to 4,000 over the last five days on ‘Varney & Co.’

      California’s businesses share the same “headache,” being personally torn between closing their doors or moving to other states over high crime and taxes.

      “I have considered moving to a different state,” Flavio Carvalho, an attorney and law firm founder in the San Francisco Bay area, told Fox News Digital. “I don’t agree with the direction California is going, and I hate the fact that I am forced to support it through my taxes.”

      “We have wanted to move for at least the last three to four years,” Bulletproof Pet Products CEO and CFO Cherie Falwell also said. “Especially since Biden has been president. Things were already expensive here. Now they are so expensive we can hardly afford to do business. However, moving is expensive, and with interest rates on homes, it is difficult to move.”

      “We are L.A., California natives, and have never lived or worked anywhere else,” Trish Aquino, who owns a digital marketing business with her husband Brandon, weighed in. “It was our financial strife, prospecting struggles and concern for our children’s futures that made us finally consider a move to Frisco, Texas.”
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/leaving-hotel-california-business-owners-torn-exodus-share-stories-how-bad-things-really-are

      1. “San Diego’s migrant situation surged from 300 illegal ‘drop-offs’ per day to 4,000 over the last five days”

        You are being replaced.

        1. Makes me wonder if any of the invaders are in secret boot camps in flyover. Though I think it would be hard to keep such places secret

          1. They just want each male migrant to knock up two or three different women, and in 30 years there will 20,000,000 -30,000,000 new minority Democrat voters to replace the dying boomer Republicans. It’ll be enough to turn most purple state blue, maybe even turn Texas purple again. And the federal government will be an all powerful truly one-party state. My state IL is truly a one-party state, and they speak in a mostly unified voice. There is very little Democrat dissent in IL – almost none. The handful who have spoken out against the current regime get primaried out and no one dare speak any criticize of our fat obese POS billionaire governor JB Pritzker because every election he throws around $150,000,000 in campaign ads to struggling media outlets, and they dare not risk losing out on those lucrative advertising dollars.

      2. For anyone who is not aware, San Diego has the most secure border crossing in the country, the fortifications in San Diego are impressive when seen up close. They are literally parking buses at the gates and ushering them on. In San Diego it is not an invasion but more of a guided tour courtesy of the ‘border patrol’. Each one of these tourists is here to leach value away from the domestic population, it is one of the biggest crime sprees this country has ever been subjected to. All courtesy of Joe Biden and his merry band of tiny hatted cohorts. Fun times.

        1. It’s not just the joos. Catholic charities and hispanic La Raza types are fully on board too. This invasion has much support from many communities, except those natives like us watching our country go to hell.

      3. Actually there is Professor. I can’t afford to leave. I wish I could. It’s an endless tangled web here. They tax you so much in California that you can hardly afford to leave. The article made my business sound so big, but we are just a small business. I’m in the article that you quoted. I can’t believe this small business survey I filled out made it all over the internet. I wish I could leave, I know our business would flourish.

    2. 1. Ports and shipping need to stay in CA.
      2. Probably some ag — they’re pretty established in wine, and I don’t think any other state can grow olives or avocados (FL?). Not sure about logging in northern Cali.
      3. Tourism.
      4. Movies and music are still in LA.
      5. It used to be that tech startups needed the Silly Valley vibe for inspiration and excitement, plus it was easy to poach talent from the startup next door. But now work from home and Austin are breaking that tradition.
      6. Support business like car service, grocery, day care, Dollar tree, etc.

      But yeah, if you have a small business in something else, it would be easier to start somewhere else.

      1. as your state become poorer, vast swathes of the landscape will be little more than dollar stores, liquor stores, boost mobiles, taqueria and slums as far as the eye can see. That’s the west and south sides of Chicago, south suburbs, and most small towns in Illinois. Those high earning industries will find a way to migrate to better states when the natives feel so out of place that even the nice parts of LA and SF feel like living in a foreign third-world country

        1. That’s the west and south sides of Chicago, south suburbs, and most small towns in Illinois. Those high earning industries will find a way to migrate to better states when the natives feel so out of place that even the nice parts of LA and SF feel like living in a foreign third-world country

          Yes but have you visited Tennessee?

    1. Interest rate decision? Powell says rate cuts won’t begin until inflation is closer to 2%
      Paul Davidson
      USA TODAY

      Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank won’t begin cutting its key interest rate “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward” its 2% goal, noting the move will likely occur “at some point this year.”

      His comments, in prepared remarks he’s scheduled to deliver before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m., echo those he made at the Fed’s last meeting in late January.
      …
      https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/06/fed-interest-rate-cuts-powell/72846917007/

    2. How many rate cuts did the bulls predict for 2024?

      I went to an open house last weekend. The realtor towards the end made sure to tell me rates would likely start to come down in Q2, so many people are buying now and will refi later in the year.

      Sounds like a path to riches, to be sure.

    2. Comments

      @shanemccutch
      1 hour ago
      Masterclass on gaslighting.
      3
      Reply

      @specialagentorange4329
      1 hour ago
      Out of touch.
      2
      Reply

      @scooterdude17
      38 minutes ago
      How many “migrants” can we send to Jen, Joy and Rachel’s house?
      Reply

      1. How many “migrants” can we send to Jen, Joy and Rachel’s house?

        They probably all live in gated communities with armed security patrols

  20. A reader sent these in:

    Nordstrom plummets after earnings report after warning about a sharp sales slowdown in 2024

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1765140995186782231

    According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 452,990 in the year ending December 2023, compared with 387,721 cases in the previous year.

    Business filings rose 40.4 percent, from 13,481 to 18,926

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1765212044616237289

    Pfizer is cancelling construction of a nearly $400mm 270,000 sqft manufacturing facility

    No demand for a 28th booster?

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1765091675959951862

    🤷🏽‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1765402010118185208

    POWELL: WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR INFLATION TO GO ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 2% BUT WE DO NEED MORE EVIDENCE

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1765416078060965902

    Fidelity to eliminate 1,000+ jobs

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1765403936318423272

    NYCB collapses 42% to all time low, $1.90

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1765428290133647634

    1. Fidelity to eliminate 1,000+ jobs

      A UK spin off of Fidelity Investments, which probably means the US based layoffs are yet to come,

    2. 452,000 bankruptcies is up a bit off 2022 but it’s still at generational lows. Other than covid years of 2021 and 2022, which set record lows, you have to go back to the early 80’s to find a year with fewer than 450k bankruptcies, when the US had one hundred million fewer people. Bankruptcies the past three years were half of what they were in the 3 years pre-covid, and 2017-2019 were the fewest number of bankruptcies america saw since the late 1980’s.

  22. ‘Over 96% of Dallas renters are keeping up with their monthly rent payments, according to RealPage’

    That’s nothing to brag about when you also have a glut.

  23. ‘Yes I’ve absorbed the hit, but I still want to go after those funds, not for us to get the money, but to actually make a point and try and help those that haven’t got their money back’

    Bargaining <- Moira you are here.

  24. ‘The snub is emblematic of a broader shift: Western banks, their expat workers and foreign capital are all taking flight from Hong Kong as Beijing exerts an increasingly authoritarian grip on the region. Beijing’s tightening grip, and the associated chilling of free speech and capitalism in the region, is coming at a cost’

    The globalist scum plan isn’t going to work in the US. We aren’t China, we aren’t Canada.

    1. “The globalist scum plan isn’t going to work in the US. We aren’t China, we aren’t Canada.”

      “Be strong. Be of good courage. God bless America. Long live the Republic.”

  26. Joe Biden Is First Incumbent President to Lose a Primary in 44 Years

    Mar 06, 2024

    Joe Biden lost the American Samoa Democratic primary to little-known candidate Jason Palmer, becoming the first incumbent president to lose a primary since Jimmy Carter in 1980.

    Palmer’s surprising victory tarnished an otherwise perfect night for Biden, during which he scored a string of primary wins across the U.S.

    https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-loses-primary-jason-palmer-american-samoa-jimmy-carter-1876315

    1. He also lost 17 of the 18 bellweather states that every other president in 100 years or something had won, and he had more votes than any other president in history. He’s also the oldest president. He’s breaking all kinds of records!

  27. Truly pathetic, what in the hell qualified this clown for this job?

    Dapper Detective
    @Dapper_Det
    ·
    Follow
    These are Democratic Party hires.

    Allegedly an “expert”.

    Today on Face the Nation:

    Chris Bort—the acting chief of the ATF’s Firearms Ammunition Technology Division couldn’t assemble or disassemble a Glock.

    Surely he couldn’t arrest or jail anyone.

    https://x.com/Dapper_Det/status/1764497600449818834?s=20

  28. “This time around, the median selling price across the six-county region fell by a combined 4.6% during December and January to $705,000, according to CoreLogic, which tracks closed sales for all residences. It also was the largest two-month decline in the past 12 years and the fifth-biggest dip for any December-January period dating to 1988.”

    It’s funny to first read about this large decline and dip in median sales prices for SoCal on the HBB. Maybe it’s time to cancel our dead tree subscription to the SD Union-Tribune? When there is real estate investors’ blood in the streets, they should properly report it.

    “San Bernardino: The biggest drop – a 7.9% decline from a record high set in November, vs. 3.3% average dip. San Diego: 5.6% decline vs. 2% average dip.”

    Is 5.6% of $1 million alot?

    5.6% × $1,000,000 = $56,000. ‘Tis a mere flesh wound for a wealthy San Diego real estate investor.

    But that is also more than annual rent on a 4 bedroom single family residence, and this is just the capital loss component of HODLing costs. Real estate investors must be freaking out.

  29. S&P 500 might crash 60%, a recession is looming, and speculation is rife, warns elite technical analyst Milton Berg
    Theron Mohamed
    Mar 6, 2024, 7:33 AM PST

    – Market bears calling for a 60% crash in the S&P 500 could soon be proven correct, Milton Berg said.

    – The technical analyst said that stocks may be close to a final peak as speculation runs hot.

    – Berg warned a recession appears likely based on several economic indicators that are flashing red.

    Stocks might crash up to 60%, a recession seems likely, and market speculation has reached dangerous levels, a veteran technical analyst warned.

    “These perma bears who are looking for a 60% decline in the S&P, and they’ve been saying it all along, they may finally be right,” Milton Berg said during the latest episode of the “Forward Guidance” podcast.

    A sell-off of that magnitude would take the benchmark stock index from above 5,000 points to about 2,000 points for the first time since 2016.

    Berg was likely nodding to John Hussman, who’s flagged the risk of a 63% plunge in the S&P 500, or perhaps Jeremy Grantham, who’s raised the prospect of a 50% decline. Berg underscored that he’s not predicting that big a plunge, and suggested stocks might drop only 8% to 15%.

    Berg, a former advisor to elite investors like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, now runs Milton Berg Advisors. He emphasized the stock market could rise further, but he noted that several technical indicators suggest it’s approaching a final peak.

    “The market’s probably going to turn lower, and it probably will be a recession or at least a major slowdown,” he said.

    Berg pointed to the Fed’s interest rate hikes, a low ratio of bearish put options to bullish call options, extreme investor sentiment, and significant market breadth as signs that stocks may be topping out. He highlighted the prolonged decline in the Leading Economic Index, the inverted yield curve, and pressure on industrial production as evidence of an impending recession.

    The longtime analyst compared the ongoing rally in stocks — which has pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up by 27% and 38% respectively over the past year — to the run-up to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000.
    …
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-spx-berg-recession-speculation-nvidia-short-2024-3

    1. U.S. News and World Report Logo
      Money
      Inverted Yield Curve: Is it Still a Recession Indicator?
      An inverted yield curve is a good, if imperfect, recession indicator. The economy has been resilient to the latest inversion.
      By Scott Ward
      Reviewed by John Divine
      Feb. 26, 2024
      U.S. News & World Report
      Getty Images
      With one exception, the inverted yield curve has signaled every recession since 1955.

      When the 2-year Treasury yield eclipsed the 10-year Treasury yield on July 5, 2022, it caught many investors’ attention. The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future.

      An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term yields on U.S. Treasurys exceed long-term yields on Treasurys. Treasurys of different maturities can be compared, but the most common pairing is the 2-year with the 10-year.

      Given the somewhat unpredictable time lag between when an inverted yield curve emerges and when a recession begins, the phrase “near future” may not mean much to some investors. The average time lag can span 12 to 24 months, according to the San Francisco Fed. Since 1978, the longest delay between a yield curve inversion and the start of a recession was 22 months, which occurred in 2006; the shortest lag time was six months back in August of 2019, according to Statista. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates a 61% chance of a recession by January 2025.

      It’s true the yield curve has accurately signaled almost every recession since 1955. Keen observers, however, will point to the lone exception, 1966, when the yield curve got it wrong.

      For practical reasons, though, what many investors want to know is whether the current recession forecasts pass the proverbial “duck test.” On the surface, there’s little evidence the U.S. economy will soon waddle or wane.
      …
      https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/inverted-yield-curve-is-it-still-a-recession-indicator

    2. California’s Unemployment Rate Increases Again in October 2023 to 4.8% – Rises .7% Year-Over-Year
      Last Updated: Saturday, 18 November 2023 04:51
      LPublished: Saturday, 18 November 2023 06:06

      Employers added 40,200 nonfarm payroll jobs

      November 18, 2023 – SACRAMENTO – California’s unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 4.8 percent1 in October 2023 despite the state’s employers adding 40,200 nonfarm payroll jobs2 to the economy, according to data released on Friday by the California Employment Development Department (EDD) from two separate surveys.
      …
      https://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/news/local-news/51565-california-s-unemployment-rate-increases-again-in-october-2023-to-4-8-rises-7-year-over-year#google_vignette

      1. “Unemployed – The number of unemployed Californians was 931,300 in October, an increase of 17,700 over the month and up 132,800 in comparison to October 2022.”

        132,800 / ( 931,300 – 132,800) = 16.6% increase. I wonder how they got the 0.7% increase in the headline?

      3. NEWS
        Unemployment claims in California increased last week
        Staff reports
        USA TODAY Network

        Initial filings for unemployment benefits in California rose last week compared with the week prior, the U.S. Department of Labor said Thursday.

        New jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, increased to 41,696 in the week ending February 24, up from 40,900 the week before, the Labor Department said.
        …
        https://www.recordnet.com/story/news/2024/03/01/unemployment-numbers/72790841007/

Comments are closed.