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Housing Inventory Levels Are Alarmingly High And Sales Are Cratering

A report from Deseret News. “‘We’ve definitely slowed. Our prices are starting to come down because the interest rates are so volatile,’ said Dejan Eskic, a senior research fellow at the University of Utah. After listening to the latest Fed meeting, Eskic said he’s ‘probably not as optimistic’ because ‘it’s like they’re gunning out for housing now.’ ‘Affordability is still an issue,’ he said. ‘The only reason housing prices are coming down is because of interest rates.'”

“Rick Palacios Jr., director of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting predicts ‘you will see — and we’re seeing it right now — home prices fall, even though supply levels are not ripping higher. And I think that’s a pretty interesting thing that’s now starting to surprise a lot of people.’ The West Coast is dotted with red, according to that analysis. San Jose and San Francisco in California, both with a -8.2% home price shift since their peak. Seattle, down 7.8%. Reno, Nevada, down 5.3%. Phoenix, Arizona, down 5%.”

“Look to Phoenix, for example — what Palacios called the ‘poster child’ for the pandemic housing boom effect. The metro saw an explosion of buyers, investors and construction from mid-2020 until higher mortgage rates dampened the party. That market — along with other ‘bubbly’ pandemic frenzied markets in the West like Boise, Idaho — have been the first to see a dramatic pullback in housing market activity and an early slump in prices. In Phoenix, new construction home prices are already down 3.5% year over year, Palacios said, which Fortune Magazine’s Lance Lambert noted wipes away all price gains dating back to last summer.”

From Fortune. “As data rolled in this summer, John Burns Real Estate Consulting provided data to Fortune showing that frothy markets like Boise and Phoenix had already gotten their home price tops blown-off. Now, it looks like that home price correction has moved beyond overheated Western housing markets. Among the 148 major regional housing markets tracked by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, 98 markets have seen home values fall from their 2022 peaks. In 11 markets, the Burns Home Value Index* has already dropped by more than 5%. Simply put: The U.S. home price correction is sharper—and more widespread—than previously thought.”

“The housing markets getting hit the hardest by the Pandemic Housing Slump fall into one of two groups. The first is high-cost tech hubs. In fact, the biggest drops in home values can be found in San Francisco (down 8.2% from its 2022 peak), San Jose (down 8.2%), and Seattle (down 7.8%). Not only are their high-end real estate markets more rate sensitive, but so are their tech sectors.”

“The second group includes frothy markets like Austin (down 3.5%), Boise (down 3.5%), Phoenix (down 5.3%), and Reno (down 5.3%). The Pandemic Housing Boom saw home prices in markets like Austin and Phoenix go far beyond what local incomes would historically support. While housing recessions are historically common, home price corrections are less common. That’s why housing bulls—just like they did in 2006—refused to acknowledge the possibility of falling home prices. But once again, they are wrong.”

The News Tribune in Washington. “Pierce County’s cooler housing market brought down the county’s median sale price from July, as both pending and closed sales showed year-over-year declines for a third straight month, according to new data. Northwest Multiple Listing Service’s latest report showed Pierce County’s median closed sale price for August was $555,000, down from $575,000 in July. Listings were up more than 100 percent compared with last year, but pending sales were down more than 21 percent from 2021 and closed sales down more than 25 percent from a year ago.”

“Pierce County wasn’t alone. Pending and closed sales year over year were down pretty much across the region. Windermere chief economist Matthew Gardner noted rising inventory was helping to bring down prices in the area month over month. ‘I predict prices will drop further as we move into the fall, but reports that we are entering a ‘bear market’ are highly exaggerated,’ he said. ‘The market is simply reverting to its long-term average as it moves away from the artificial conditions caused by the pandemic.'”

From NBC Miami in Florida. “A group of homebuyers say they have waited years to move into their dream homes. The townhomes in the heart of Coconut Grove are modern, spacious, and are still under construction. The homebuyers we spoke with say they’ve repeatedly demanded answers from the project’s developer but have only received excuses. They asked us to conceal their identities telling us they fear retaliation. A man, whom we will refer to as Lee, says he should already be living in one of the homes. The contract required a 20% deposit worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. ‘That is all of our life savings, are in that home,’ Lee said.”

“Lee is not alone. NBC 6 Responds spoke with four other families who told us they also have been waiting for years to close on their properties at the same development. ‘To be told 45 days, every 45 days, for years is mind numbing, after a while you don’t believe anything he says,’ one homebuyer told us.”

From Tech Crunch on California. “Over the past decade, startups migrated north from Silicon Valley to make San Francisco the country’s hottest tech hub. The streets of the city were bustling as throngs of — mostly tech — workers walked or caught Ubers to their next meetings. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and things slid to a halt. Now, more than two years and several vaccines later, San Francisco’s office scene has still not rebounded and the city’s streets remain eerily quiet.”

“Colin Yasukochi, executive director of real estate brokerage CBRE’s Tech Insights Center, suggests some space could potentially be converted in the future, but that right now, it’s too bitter a prospect for commercial building owners. ‘We’re not anywhere close to that yet because the values of these buildings need to come down dramatically,’ Yasukochi said. ‘If you bought your building for a certain price — say $700 or $1,000 a square foot, you’re not going to want to sell for $200 or $300 a square foot to make a residential conversion feasible. It’s completely logical to put it to more productive use, but tell that to the person who paid for it — that they have to take a loss, right?'”

The New York Post. “SL Green added another trophy to its burgeoning portfolio. The city’s largest commercial landlord purchased 245 Park Avenue out of bankruptcy in a deal that closed on Friday. SL Green’s unexpected, 100% acquisition of the 48-story, 1.8 million square-foot office tower climaxed a grueling battle with the tower’s distressed former owner HNA, an affiliate of China’s PWM Property Management.”

“Chief executive Marc Holliday said that asking rents will depend ‘on the final cost of redevelopment. But our [low acquisition] cost basis allows us to price the building very competitively, far below new construction.’ In fact, ‘monstrously below,’ he chuckled — although rents will still be in triple digits.”

The Georgia Straight. “Central 1 chief economist Brian Yu has pointed to a combination of factors that are transforming the Lower Mainland housing market. Yu noted that higher interest rates, including a recent 0.75 percent hike by the Bank of Canada, have led to a ‘rapid erosion of purchasing power.’ He noted that new listings fell 15 percent from a year ago. At the same time, he maintained that ‘negotiating power has swung to buyers.'”

“‘While the 18 per cent sales-to-active listing ratio sits at a level consistent with balanced conditions, the rapid deterioration points to a buyers’ market which is curbing prices,’ Yu stated. ‘The average sales price fell to $1.12 million, marking a 1.2 per cent monthly decline and a 15 per cent decline from peak. As this reflects sold listings, it may be biased lower due to sales composition and motivated sellers (such as investors).'”

The South China Morning Post. “Two-thirds of major listed companies in closely tied sectors such as construction reported falling first-half profits, with half swinging from profit to loss. Cement manufacturers, design houses and furniture retailers also among firms taking on water. Lily Gao, a designer in an architectural firm in Shanghai, never thought that the news about defaulting property developers and mortgage boycotts would affect her life.”

“‘I thought that since I did not even buy a home or invest in any of the wealth management products, those news stories were just other people’s desperate stories,’ the 27-year-old said. ‘Apparently, I was too naive.’ Now, the distressed property market could end up costing Gao about 90,000 yuan (US$13,000). ‘We were told that our bonus this year could get delayed or cancelled if the receivables cannot be settled,’ the designer said with disappointment.”

“While Otis management cited China’s on-and-off Covid-19 lockdowns for the drop, analysts are more concerned about a lasting slowdown, because ‘housing inventory levels are alarmingly high and sales of new floor space are cratering,’ as analyst Joel Spungin of Berenberg Capital Markets put it on an earnings call recently.”

From Bloomberg. “Around the world, soaring borrowing costs are squeezing homebuyers and property owners alike. From Sydney to Stockholm to Seattle, buyers are pulling back as central banks raise interest rates at the fastest pace in decades, sending house prices falling. Meanwhile, millions of people who borrowed cheaply to purchase homes during the pandemic boom face higher payments as loans reset.”

“‘We will observe a globally synchronised housing market downturn in 2023 and 2024,’ said Hideaki Hirata of Hosei University, a former Bank of Japan economist who co-authored an International Monetary Fund paper on global house prices. He warns the full impact of this year’s aggressive rate hikes will take time to play out for households. ‘Sellers often overlook signs of shrinking demand,’ he said.”

“New Zealand, where prices rose close to 30% in 2021 alone, is something of a poster child of the pandemic housing boom — and its unraveling. The central bank has hiked interest rates seven times in the past 10 months and house prices were down 11% in July from the peak in November last year. Femke Burger, a 33-year-old insurance case manager, bought a house in the Wellington region in March 2021 for NZ$825,000 ($504,000). In the months that followed, the value of her property raced to NZ$1 million, according to house valuation websites. Those gains have evaporated. Her two-bedroom, semi-detached property is now valued at about the same amount she paid for it.”

“‘I definitely feel as though there’s been a reduction in my own personal financial wellbeing,’ said Burger, who must refinance her mortgage in the next 12 months. While she’s confident she can handle the increase in interest rates, it will still hurt.”

“In Sweden, formerly one of Europe’s hottest markets, home prices have fallen about 8% since the spring, with most economists now expecting a 15% drop. Rising rates also are pressuring property companies that borrowed heavily on the bond markets to finance their operations, leaving investors increasingly concerned about their ability to refinance that debt. Price declines also are accelerating in the UK. Home values are flat or dropping in almost half of London’s boroughs, a Bloomberg analysis shows. HSBC Holdings Plc has warned the UK is on the ‘cusp of a housing downturn’ and demand probably will plunge 20% over the following year.”

“In Australia and Canada — two of the world’s bubbliest markets — economists anticipate a notable crunch. The alarm bells are perhaps ringing the loudest in Australia, where home prices in August recorded their largest monthly decline in almost four decades. While cashed-up households have so far shown resilience to rising interest rates, a pinch point will come next year, with billions in mortgage loans fixed at record-low interest rates coming up for refinancing.”

“That stands to hurt homeowners such as Sindhuja Vetcha, a 30-year-old architect who dipped her toe into the Sydney property market last May, hoping interest rates would remain at record lows. But as the price of everything from petrol to food surged, loan repayments for her two-bedroom apartment in Sydney’s west also started going up rapidly. She’s already paying A$260 ($178) a month more just for the 40% of the loan that was on variable term, and rates are tipped to rise still further.”

“At the same time, the value of her home has taken a beating — similar properties are currently being advertised for around A$70,000 less than she paid — meaning it will be a while before she is in positive equity again. ‘It’s way beyond what the property will ever be worth any time in the near future,’ Vetcha said.”

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This Post Has 83 Comments

  1. ‘The only reason housing prices are coming down is because of interest rates’

    Wa happened to my law of supply and demand Dejec?

    ‘It’s way beyond what the property will ever be worth any time in the near future’

    A-HA! Sindhuja, you are a perma bear and so is bloomberg. Gloom and doomers!

    What exactly changed since 2006? Central banks learned their lesson, right? Even though we were lectured every day that subprime is ‘illegal’ there’s more subprime loans out there at much higher prices than ever in history. Heck, they are doubling down on subprime as I type. The credit raters are still handing out triple A ratings to said subprime. There is still securitivation of MBS. Wall street learned their lesson with all those crooks who went to prison, right?

    1. Too bad Sindhuja isn’t an American.

      Smart 30 year-old toe dipping architects like her who bought last May with adjustable rate loans and owe A$70,000 less than their purchase price get their student loans paid by the vote buying Biden administration in America.

  2. “Lily Gao, a designer in an architectural firm in Shanghai, never thought that the news about defaulting property developers and mortgage boycotts would affect her life.”

    This person is just plain stupid. She is an architectural designer – AN ARCHITECTURAL DESIGNER – who thought she was somehow insulated from the financial happenings in real estate.

    What a dummy.

  3. ‘That’s why housing bulls—just like they did in 2006—refused to acknowledge the possibility of falling home prices. But once again, they are wrong’

    Ahem…

    ‘‘If you bought your building for a certain price — say $700 or $1,000 a square foot, you’re not going to want to sell for $200 or $300 a square foot to make a residential conversion feasible. It’s completely logical to put it to more productive use, but tell that to the person who paid for it — that they have to take a loss, right?’

    ‘asking rents will depend ‘on the final cost of redevelopment. But our [low acquisition] cost basis allows us to price the building very competitively, far below new construction.’ In fact, ‘monstrously below’

    This is a process. The bowling ball will create new situations as it drops down the stairs. For instance, Phoenix area (17 cities BTW, some say 34) new shack sellers are slashing base prices, something unpossible said video guys 2 months ago. Which will fook previous buyers who end up like Sindhuja, find themselves underwater and that’s when they bail. Creating new grim situations for loan owners.

    1. But….all the experts say housing prices won’t drop more than 10%!!!!

      (Look at the Silicon Valley price drop already & the party has bearly started!)

    2. Lived in Houston back in 1985 when they had a crash that wiped out the values of condos and townhouses. I was renting but my neighbor paid 65k for her new home. After the crash other new builds on the street sold for 5K when the builder went belly up. Needless to say she walked.

  4. ‘Affordability is still an issue,’ he said. ‘The only reason housing prices are coming down is because of interest rates.’”

    No, lying realtor scum, housing is going down because it always goes down anytime the median shack price is so out of whack with median incomes in our oligarch-looted economy.

  5. Among the 148 major regional housing markets tracked by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, 98 markets have seen home values fall from their 2022 peaks.

    TIIIIIMMMMBBBBRRRRRR….

  6. In fact, the biggest drops in home values can be found in San Francisco (down 8.2% from its 2022 peak), San Jose (down 8.2%), and Seattle (down 7.8%).

    Is that a lot?

  7. “similar properties are currently being advertised for around A$70,000 less than she paid — meaning it will be a while before she is in positive equity again. ‘It’s way beyond what the property will ever be worth any time in the near future,’ Vetcha said.”

    Sindhuja needs a Delorean with a Flux capacitor.

  8. Listings were up more than 100 percent compared with last year, but pending sales were down more than 21 percent from 2021 and closed sales down more than 25 percent from a year ago.”

    Ben, I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention or not, but data such as this suggests we might very well be witnessing the beginnings of a bursting housing bubble.

  10. Imagine if the Brandon regime fired officials for incompetence & failure. Would there be anyone left?

    Putin ‘sacks’ top ranking general after ’16 days’ following crushing defeat in eastern Ukraine which has seen Ukrainian forces push to within 30 miles of the Russian border – and panicked troops abandoning tanks, weapons and supplies

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11202615/Putin-sacks-ranking-general-16-days-following-crushing-defeat-eastern-Ukraine.html

  11. I can’t member where I saw it but someone of high character recently said…

    “The 2020 election was stolen”

    1. The New York Times and Washington Post are the enemy of the American people.

      Who said that? The winner of the 2020 election.

  12. “moves away from the artificial conditions caused by the pandemic”

    CCP Flu didn’t destroy the economy. Government destroyed the economy.

  13. This is why Yellen the Felon gets paid the big bucks: for statements of the blindingly obvious.

    Oil prices could spike in winter: US Treasury’s Yellen

    https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/09/11/Oil-prices-could-spike-in-winter-US-Treasury-s-Yellen

    US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said Americans could experience a spike in gas prices in the winter when the European Union significantly cuts back on buying Russian oil, adding that a proposed Western price cap on Russia’s oil exports is being designed to keep prices in check.

    “It’s a risk, and it’s a risk that we’re working on the price cap to try to address,” Yellen told CNN.

  14. More dominoes falling in Australia.

    Brisbane building company collapses owing $2 million

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/brisbane-building-company-collapses-owing-2-million/news-story/bb0074a6ed93b2ba7f50f0e2913a7de1

    A luxury building company based in Brisbane is the latest causality in the construction industry as it collapsed owing almost $2 million.

    The company, which specialised in luxury home renovations of inner-city homes, was called Art Struct and had been operating since 2006 before it went into administration.

    Insolvency expert Jarvis Archer from Revive Financial was appointed to deal with the firm’s collapse.

  16. Steve Kirsch — I now have an informant deep inside the CDC (9/11/2022):

    “My email to nearly 300 CDC employees paid off. One of them responded on a secure channel and I can now ask questions and get answers.

    Here are two things I learned:

    He believes that everyone at the CDC is drinking the Kool-Aid. In other words, as far as he knows, they all truly believe the vaccines are safe and effective, just like my blue-pilled friends. Even the top people. If there are any dissenters, they aren’t speaking up internally. How does this happen? It’s group-think. What happens to critical thinkers?

    My Substack is blocked at the CDC. It is considered “unsafe.”

    A vaccine that has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans is “safe” and my Substack is “unsafe.”

    My leaker can’t go public because she’d be attacked and marginalized by the press.

    https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/i-now-have-an-informant-deep-inside

    COVID “vaccines” are not vaccines they are deadly poison designed and intended to kill you.

    1. The CDC owns 50 vaccine patents, and they profit off the sale of vaccines.
      Basically you have a conflict of interest entity that’s a vaccine pusher, that is acting like a Government health agency, that’s a disinformation for profit operation.
      FDA isn’t protecting the public , its a joke what they approve.
      Trials are bogus, and Science was corrupted by money flowing to buy the narratives.
      Doctors and Scientist either support the fraud , or your defunded or under job threat, or slandered or censored.
      Only under these circumstances of this level of corruption, can you get a fake Pandemic, a fake lockdown, fake masks and fake expiermental vaccines, pushed by fake bought off news.
      These poison fake vaccines are still on the market and data of death and injury isn’t relevant to this Criminal Cartel .
      Climate Change fraud is the other pre planned method of mass destruction.
      So evil and sinister what is occurring that its the greatest existential threat that humanity has ever faced.
      Humans are on the eve of destruction by a Cartel of power that wants to enslave, kill deprive and alter humans against their will.
      Its obvious now that humanity must fight back against this pre-planned take over by a very evil small group of invaders and infiltrators.

  17. Zelensky is a war criminal. He needs to negotiate a ceasefire and peace agreement with Russia now.

    Russia Today (9/11/2022):

    “Ukrainian military casualties exceeded 12,000 during Kiev’s five-day counteroffensive, Russia’s Defense Ministry has claimed.

    More than 4,000 Ukrainian troops were killed and another 8,000 injured between September 6 and 10 in the south and east of the country, ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said during a daily briefing on Sunday.

    According to the official, Russian forces conducted “precision strikes” with missiles and artillery targeting pro-Kiev units in Kharkov region, from where Russian troops retreated earlier as part of what Moscow described as “redeployment.”

    https://www.rt.com/russia/562588-russian-military-ukrainian-losses/

    United States taxpayers, what are you waiting for? Your money isn’t enough. You need to send a child or grandchild to Ukranistan now, today. Boots on the ground, front line combat.

    Imagine all the likes and retweets you’ll get when your child becomes #12,001. Real Journalists will come and interview you and you’ll get to be on the TeeVee!

    And BTW, the Murdoch owned New York Post and UK Daily Mail despite being allegedly conservative media, are just as pro-war as all the other globalist scum media.

    1. The Washington Post isn’t a newspaper, it’s a PR firm issuing puff piece press releases for its real owners: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Boeing, Northrup Grumman.

      Sputnik News — West’s Blitzkrieg Tactics Failed as Russia Promptly Implemented Protective Measures (9/12/2022):

      “Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the country is coping with pressure from the West, having promptly implemented protective measures in the economy.

      According to him, the West’s Blitzkrieg tactics with respect to Russia had failed to work.

      He stressed the need for Russia to stick to its logic and resolve its tasks amid actions by what he described as “ill-wishers.”

      “We see that the actions of our, to put it mildly, ill-wishers are largely unpredictable and impulsive in many respects. Their actions are clearly unprofessional and therefore impulsive, which means that we must work in line with our logic, keep the initiative, and not just react to some unfriendly steps, but to consistently resolve our tasks in the economy, social sphere, and infrastructure,” Putin emphasized.

      “The rapid adoption of large-scale anti-crisis measures, as well as the stability and strength of the Russian economy in the face of external challenges is largely the result of our responsible macroeconomic policy in previous years. That’s why the condition of the Russian budget is now significantly better than in the economies of most G20 countries and those of our friends in BRICS nations,” Putin added.

      Speaking about “economic airbags”, the Russian president underscored that it’s necessary to understand how to create such “airbags” and how it will work amid modern-day conditions, “when the well-known and inevitable process of de-dollarization is underway.”

      https://sputniknews.com/20220912/putin-wests-blitzkrieg-tactics-failed-as-russia-promptly-implemented-protective-measures-1100678612.html

      Western Europe as we know it will not exist within a few decades. Russia with its incalculable amount of oil and gas and other natural resources will dominate for centuries.

      Nobody needs The West.

      Civilization will endure without drag queen story hour. The United States is the last nation of The West with any hope of liberating itself from the Weimar globalists. Western Europe, Canada, Australia are over, there’s no hope for them.

      1. “There’s no hope for them”

        Australia is far enough away that it may not matter. We cannot afford to leave Canada in the hands of globalists anymore than we can afford to let California or NY secede. I mean it’s their right to secede, obviously, but whose interests does it serve? These failed states will only become a base to subvert and capture their neighbors.

      2. The Washington Post isn’t a newspaper, it’s a PR firm issuing puff piece press releases for its real owners: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Boeing, Northrup Grumman.

        Jeff Bezos is a traitor and enemy of the American people. The penalty for treason in the US is death.

  18. “It’s a chill, but likely not a crash… Homeowners are way more cash flush now than they were when the housing market crashed in ’07 (flashback: prices plunged and millions owed more than their homes were worth). Mortgage leverage is at a record low, and losing some paper value on a home won’t harm most Americans. While housing inventory is rising at a record pace, home supply is still relatively tight, so prices likely won’t crash.”

    https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3euw4ZLoaa0RSw80i4sukh/

  19. Catching up:

    I read that Saturday was Casey Serin’s 40th birthday. I wonder where he is now… didn’t he flee to Russia or something? He didn’t seem to have any valuable skills. If I were Putin, I would have drafted him into the war machine.

    Redpilled Redhead, I had vaguely heard about Jack Murph the perve, but how was Poso involved, other than being friends? Are they still friends? I know Beanie Boy dropped perve like a hot potato, I don’t know about Poso.

    Was just reading about Biden adding trans rights to Title IX. Nice way to slice off yet ANOTHER voting bloc, big guy.

  20. A reader sent these in:

    John Wake

    Cromford Report “We just recorded the largest ever year-over-year percentage increase in the rate of new rental listings”

    “There were 3,449 active rental listings (excluding short-term rentals) yesterday. This is up 149% from the same date last year and up 15% from a month ago”

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1569073158715772929

    Lance Lambert

    The question isn’t IF U.S. home prices will fall, it’s HOW FAR will it fall.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1569081044800016384

    I call this one “Mind the Pivot”, because it shows the last two times the Fed pivoted in recession, the market collapsed. And yet what today’s bulls want more than anything is a Fed pivot.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1568729019754897408

    Global real disposal incomes crashing worldwide 🚨

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1568917275872268297

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    A global balance sheet recession in the works?

    “Frothy markets such as Australia and Canada are facing double-digit house-price declines, and economists believe the worldwide downswing is only getting started.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1569102388455264256

    Lance Lambert

    This thread makes an important point. Home prices are falling across much of the country even as inventory remains 41% below pre-pandemic levels.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1569119123527049217

    Mark Zandi

    Housing has taken it on the chin as the Fed hits the brakes hard and fixed mortgage rates surge to over 6%. Home sales have crumbled, housing starts are slumping, and house prices have rolled over. But the fallout on the broader economy from the housing downturn is just starting.

    https://twitter.com/Markzandi/status/1568984114065461263

    1. Ho Chi Zandi yer a permabear.

      The Cromford report only covers greater Phoenix. The national rental market has turned to poo in a very short time. The only thing I can figure is these disposable income numbers are real and biting. Gosh, shutting down the global economy might produce negative outcomes!

  21. Kurt Schlichter (9/12/2022):

    “Could it be better for freedom if things in America got even worse? More economic hardship, increased crime, further humiliations of America at the hands of seventh century savages – you know, business usual under President Gumby. Should we patriots try to save these idiots from themselves and give them an out, or let the natural consequences of their failures build into a critical mass that brings on a backlash that brings us the power we need to destroy all their Marxy dreams? Perhaps we should root for our garbage ruling class to hit bottom and start digging. Actually, digging deeper – these incompetent corruptocrats are already tossing shovelfuls of dirt out of the hole.

    It’s a cynical strategy, but this is a cynical time. There is a school of thought that says that the way to win the kind of macro-societal conflict we are in is to allow the enemy to crash and burn, to so thoroughly fail to perform adequately by any metric that they will discredit themselves for a generation – but only for a generation, since as long as there are stupid college students and stupider academics, there will be communists. This is like a conservative version of the Cloward-Piven strategy, where the left would burden the welfare state so heavily with deadbeats, bums, and shiftless losers that the only possible response would be a massive expansion of the welfare state ending, they hope, in full socialism. We win by letting them lose and lose and lose, despite the pain we’ll feel while they do it, until they are utterly spent. If it works, okay, but if it doesn’t, would we even have an America to save?

    One such uncertain premise is that there is a bottom for the left. But why would you think that? To have a bottom – a state of despair so complete that there really is no alternative but to change direction – you have to have certain objectives. In the case of the ruling caste, the objective has to be, at some level, to provide security and prosperity for the citizens. But what evidence have you seen that this is the establishment’s objective? What makes you think that is a motivating factor at all? Our trash alleged betters are very interested in their own power and position, but not so much in your safety or prosperity.

    Take California – please. It’s 2022 and the pinko Dems running the place can’t even keep the power on, much less keep hobos from defecating on our lawns. If the Dems cared about us, they would look at the darkness and the squatting derelicts and think, “Well, this is not working. Time to try something that’s not stupid.” But they will never do that. They don’t care about us. We’re not the point. That’s why there is no bottom. It can get a million times worse and they will be happy as long as they are in charge.”

    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/09/12/maybe-we-want-things-to-get-even-worse/

    2. It can get a million times worse and they will be happy as long as they are in charge.”

      This, times one million.

  23. Grim predictions for Australia’s housing crash: Report
    Sky News Australia
    Sep 12, 2022 Australia’s housing market is set to decline more significantly than other nations, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. The latest report from the global bank revealed Australian property prices will drop by 18 per cent.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnpmh8AG14M

    2:30.

  24. Propaganda and lies from The Atlantic.

    It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory (9/11/2022):

    “even though the fighting may still take many turns, the events of the past few days should force Ukraine’s allies to stop and think. A new reality has been created: The Ukrainians could win this war. Are we in the West really prepared for a Ukrainian victory? Do we know what other changes it could bring?

    Back in March, I wrote that it was time to imagine the possibility of victory, and I defined victory quite narrowly: “It means that Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy, with the right to choose its own leaders and make its own treaties.” Six months later, some adjustments to that basic definition are required. In Kyiv yesterday, I watched Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tell an audience that victory should now include not only a return to the borders of Ukraine as they were in 1991—including Crimea, as well as Donbas in eastern Ukraine—but also reparations to pay for the damage and war-crimes tribunals to give victims some sense of justice.

    When I write that Americans and Europeans need to prepare for a Ukrainian victory, this is what I mean: We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of Putin’s regime.

    Even if they prove ephemeral, the events of the past few days do change the nature of this war. From the very beginning, everybody—Europeans, Americans, the global business community in particular—has wanted a return to stability.”

    https://archive.ph/HSLKq

    The global business community?

    Russia has the resources to endure for centuries without this alleged global business community.

    The United States has over thirty trillion dollars of debt. What does The West have to offer Russia? Disney, i-phones, sex change surgeries for children, monkeypox and A.I.D.S.

    Russia is winning.

    1. More propaganda and lies from neocon warmonger Max Boot at the Washington Post (Archive link provided to deny clicks and revenue to globalist scum media).

      The four reasons Ukraine is winning (9/12/2022):

      “This is the biggest Ukrainian victory since the successful defense of Kyiv in the conflict’s early days. Putin’s plans for a three-day war have turned into a nearly seven-month slog. How is it that Ukraine been so successful at besting its larger neighbor?”

      https://archive.ph/NCexj

      There is no victory. There will be no victory. The future of Christian European civilization belongs to Russia. The West is dying.

      1. When Europe goes dark this Winter and the thermostats drop so low that people will have to wear coats at home, the MSM will not report on that. Instead we will get puff pieces, like some town’s Christmas Market is doing business as usual, with happy patrons sipping on steaming cups of gluhwein.

        1. Nobody at the World Economic Forum, the European Central Bank, the EU headquarters in Brussels will be cold this winter, none of them.

          Suffering and hardship is only for the little people.

        2. From what I’ve seen, Europe will have enough physical energy; it will be just very expensive because they will import from other sources. And they’re already printing something like 1.6 trillion poof-Euros to pay for it. And remember, maybe there’s some intel that Russia isn’t going to last much longer. Europe might only have to survive one winter of this, or less.

          1. From what I’ve seen, Europe will have enough physical energy

            Not really. If it doesn’t come through a pipeline, nat gas has to be liquified and shipped, and the current global infrastructure for that is already maxxed out, and that includes the Europen ports were it would be received.

            There’s going to be severe rationing and cold houses. But as I’ve said, they won’t be showing that on the Nightly News. That’s going straight to the memory hole.

          3. That’s why the news is making such a big deal out of the nat gas storage. There does seem to be enough LNG infrastructure to capacity to fill the tanks. Europeans can shut off the factories and work at home to save on commercial electricity. They can burn crappy coal to produce their own electricity for vital areas like residences, hospitals, stores etc. This will reserve the nat gas where it’s needed most: heating. It will be like COVID but without the disease or the lockdowns; more like w@h, loss of non-essential jobs, and limited partying. With that, they should be able to make up the Russian shortfall. Rationing is not new. Europeans rationed like crazy during the wars (Americans too). But I’m curious if Europe will tolerate wartime hunker-down and rationing if they aren’t the ones in the hot war. It’s all fun to Support The Current Thing and fly the blue-and-yellow, but will they back it up with winter coats and cold coffee, just because the leaders say so? We don’t know.

          4. Europeans can shut off the factories

            That should do wonders for their economies and the global supply chain.

          5. “ maybe there’s some intel that Russia isn’t going to last much longer. ”

            Neocon fantasy. Like it happened in Iran, Venezuela or noko. Right?

    2. Dude….are you ok? I can’t figure out who’s side you are on? I think you like Russia more than the US. I’ve been in 30 countries around the world flying in the USAF. We’re not that bad….it’s not that bad here. Everybody is not getting sex changes. Back off the news of any sort. There are weird kids out there…..I’m more worried about preachers, teachers and others raping kids. Seems that happens all the time and people look the other way….some kid is confused and people pounce. Just be lucky you are normal and are not confused about yourself….I know I’m lucky to be a normal, white dude, married 27 years….having fun making the best of it. I’ve got enough red neck that I can drink beer and ride bikes and I can clean up and act polished.

      1. “Not one inch eastward.”

        And so what if Mad Vlad doesn’t want the commie run gender bending freakshow so prevelant here, on his doorstep.

    3. “Moscow Officials Urge Putin to GTFO: ‘Everything Went Wrong’. Their plea came as Putin’s deranged ‘special military operation’ next door took a spectacular nosedive.”

      https://www.thedailybeast.com/moscow-officials-urge-vladimir-putin-to-give-up-power?ref=scroll

      (snip snip snip)

      More and more Russian officials are urging Vladimir Putin to get the hell out of the Kremlin as Moscow suffered another series of humiliating defeats in Ukraine this weekend.

      Just one day after several municipal deputies in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma to try the Russian leader for treason, their colleagues in Moscow joined in and demanded he step down because his views are “hopelessly outdated.”

      The open letter to Putin from municipal deputies in the Russian capital’s Lomonosovsky district started out by seemingly trying to let him down gently, telling him he had “good reforms” in his first term and part of his second.

      But then, “everything went wrong,” the deputies said.

      “The rhetoric that you and your subordinates use has been riddled with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era. Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we are once again threatening the whole world with nuclear weapons,” the letter read.

      “We ask you to relieve yourself of your post due to the fact that your views and your governance model are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and its human potential,” the deputies said in closing.

      Though they made no mention of the war against Ukraine, their plea came as Putin’s deranged “special military operation” next door took a spectacular nosedive, with thousands of Russian forces fleeing as Ukraine’s military launched a series of surprise counter-offensives and reclaimed nearly 400 square miles of territory in a matter of days.

      Even as Russian defense officials sought to play down the mass surrender as nothing more than a strategic maneuver, it was clearly not perceived that way even by many of Putin’s most loyal cronies.

      The same Russian propagandists who’d spent the first six months of the war thumping their chests about a supposedly “inevitable victory” suddenly changed their tune. Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of RT who’d repeatedly called for Moscow to mercilessly obliterate Ukraine, suddenly posted a sentimental screed on Twitter calling for unity between the two nations.

      “In this situation, the best picture of the future is the overall picture of the past. Our shared past, recent. When everyone was together, when there was Victory Day, when there was a parade, when both Russian and Ukrainian were taught,” she wrote, waxing nostalgic over a time when “wonderful songs were sung both in one language and the other.”

      Even the pro-Kremlin Telegram channels run by Russian military bloggers had a dramatic change of tune as Ukraine claimed new wins Saturday: They began to openly blast military leadership—and Putin personally—for the embarrassing failures.

      “Stalin, as much of a vampire as he was, never stooped to this and said how we lost nothing and there are no problems,” wrote one pro-Kremlin blogger. “For him, those who cowardly run away and ‘withdraw troops’ were the alarmists.”

      1. “More and more Russian officials are urging Vladimir Putin to get the hell out of the Kremlin as Moscow suffered another series of humiliating defeats in Ukraine this weekend.”

        I guess Putin’s propaganda isn’t working so well for him anymore? It has to be difficult when he pits his citizens against their slavic neighbors…rather like fratricide.

    4. The queen of the neocons/libs. This b!atch has been wrong so many times before…..

      Afghanistan, Iraq…..the list goes on.

  26. The Guardian is globalist scum media.

    Robert Reich — History will judge Republicans who stay silent about the big lie (9/11/2022):

    “I have a serious question for people who have power in America, and who continue to deny the outcome of the 2020 election and enable Trump’s big lie: what are you saying to yourself in private? How are you justifying yourself in your own mind?

    If you hold public office and deny the outcome of the 2020 election, are you telling yourself that despite the overwhelming evidence that Biden won and the lack of evidence of fraud, you still genuinely doubt the outcome?

    But you must know you’re wrong. The big lie is growing. It has metastasized into a cancer that’s dividing the nation and devouring our democracy.”

    https://archive.ph/GDhWU

    The 2020 election was stolen, Robert Reich.

    The 2020 election was stolen. America isn’t The Guardian newsroom and it isn’t the Berkeley faculty lounge.

    Joe Biden did not win the 2020 election, and he will never be the legitimately elected president of the United States.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    1. Globalist scum social media and taxpayer funded Marxist National Public Radio.

      Social media firms are prepping for the midterms. Experts say it may not be enough (9/12/2022):

      “With two months to go until the midterms, tech companies are getting ready: rolling out fact checks, labeling misleading claims and setting up voting guides.

      The election playbooks being used by Facebook, Twitter, Google-owned YouTube and TikTok are largely in line with those they used in 2020, when they warned that both foreign and domestic actors were seeking to undermine confidence in the results.”

      Undermine confidence in the results? The 2020 election was stolen.

      “That’s left experts who study social media wondering what lessons tech companies have learned from 2020 – and whether they are doing enough this year.

      The platforms are largely taking a two-pronged approach: tamping down misleading or outright false claims, and boosting authoritative information from local election officials and reputable news sources.”

      Reputable news sources? The 2020 election was stolen.

      “But defining when an ad or issue qualifies as political isn’t straightforward, leaving gaps that experts worry could be exploited.

      “It’s actually a quite confusing landscape because there is no regulation, there are no standards these companies have to follow,” Harbath said. “Everyone is just making the choices that they feel are best for them and their company.”

      Experts worry? The 2020 election was stolen.

      “In the hours after polls closed in 2020, Trump supporters began rallying online under the slogan “Stop the Steal,” Facebook removed the first Stop the Steal group on its platform quickly, under its rules against casting doubt on the legitimacy of the election and calling for violence. But more groups kept popping up – and Facebook was unable to keep up.

      Researchers warn that the 2020 approach to election falsehoods doesn’t address the reality of 2022. Tech companies approach elections as discrete events, typically putting policies in place and then turning them off when the voting is over – even though false claims don’t end when the ballots are counted.

      “The companies should be doing a lot more to have an always-on policy, because clearly these topics around the integrity of elections are certainly staying in the lexicon and the conversation well beyond Election Day,” Harbath said.

      https://www.npr.org/2022/09/12/1121887926/social-media-firms-are-prepping-for-the-midterms-experts-say-it-may-not-be-enoug

      Staying in the lexicon and the conversation well beyond Election Day? Oh yes it will, globalist sh*tbags. The 2020 election was stolen. There are over 80 million Trump voters who had the election stolen from them (the 2020 election was stolen) and they’re not just going to roll over and die and let these unelected globalists steal our country.

      The 2020 election was stolen.

      1. “The election playbooks being used by Facebook, Twitter, Google-owned YouTube and TikTok are largely in line with those they used in 2020,”

        Video of the tech companies officers and the ballot stuffing mules as a sting operation is executed during the 2020 midterms.

        https://youtu.be/p7HU2iLtiwI?t=194

    1. Does Trudeau stand a chance against Poilievre’s message of freedom?

      Will the Canadian elections be fair?

      I really don’t expect the WEF to say “Shucks, we’re gonna lose the elections fair and square”

  31. by Kelen McBreen
    September 12th 2022, 1:53 pm

    Yuval Noah Harari, a World Economic Forum (WEF) member and the top advisor to its founder Klaus Schwab, provided insight into the mindset of the global elite on Friday during an economics summit.

    Speaking at the 2022 Warwick Economics Summit, Harari began by fearmongering about Climate Change and suggesting the nations of the world should fork up an extra 2 percent of their GDP per year to prevent a “catastrophic” climate event.

    Later in the summit, Harari promoted the idea that people don’t need to travel to faraway islands on vacations to be happy and that they don’t need to spend money on beauty products that harm the environment to feel good-looking.

    Essentially, he’s suggesting the average person give up basic things that please them in exchange for alternatives the establishment has deemed more “environmentally friendly.”

    Of course, the Brad Pitts, Leonardo DiCaprios and Yuval Noah Hararis of the world will continue to fly on private jets while the lemmings are forced to stay home to help “save the Earth.”

    Harari basically admitted the elite will hoard the technology to save themselves while the vast majority of people suffer.

    “There is a very big danger that with climate change, when people talk about what our future going to be like, there is no ‘us.’ There is no ‘our future.’ Humanity might divide into a majority – maybe – of people who would suffer tremendously, and a minority that will have the resources, the wealth, [and] the technology to protect themselves, and even flourish in some kind of technological Noah’s arc. This is extremely dangerous,” he told Weir.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/wefs-harari-hand-over-power-to-the-technocratic-elite-or-die/

  32. Put that coffee down!

    fortune.com/2022/09/12/goldman-sachs-eliminates-free-coffee-business-powerhouses-trimming-perk-employees-return-office

    1. The Financial Times
      Companies
      Debt monsters in the downturn
      With rising rates and sagging economies, we look at the companies flashing warning signals
      FT Reporters
      2 hours ago

      Rock-bottom interest rates have long allowed companies to paper over cracks in their business models.

      As central banks raise rates to tame surging inflation, scores of debt-laden companies suddenly face the uncomfortable prospect of trying to service higher interest bills with crimped cashflows.

      To assemble our list of debt monsters, we chose a market metric: companies with debt trading more than 10 percentage points (1,000 basis points) above government bonds, drawn from Ice’s Global High Yield index.

      Although this does not capture companies turning to private debt markets or bank loans, it produces a diverse range of 207 companies whose bond spreads are flashing a red warning signal.

      The top is dominated by Chinese property companies, which until recently had seemed to defy the laws of financial gravity. But the disparate group shows just how widespread corporate distress has become in 2022, taking in a French supermarket chain, an Irish aircraft lessor, an Indian miner, a Belgian toilet maker and Britain’s largest chicken producer. We have chosen to examine in more detail a sample of 35 companies from the list.

      Bond investors are professional worriers and in uncertain times the market can reflect their darkest thoughts. Plenty of companies on the list have defied previous prophecies of doom, while many have already pushed out the day their debt comes due far into the future. Consider this as a tour of businesses that debt markets are fretting over, rather than a collection of condemned companies.
      …

    1. The Financial Times
      Goldman Sachs Group
      Goldman Sachs plans round of job cuts as dealmaking dries up
      Review of underperforming bankers threatens hundreds of employees
      Goldman Sachs logo
      Goldman Sachs’ investment banking revenues were down 38% in the first six months of 2022
      Joshua Franklin in New York yesterday

      Goldman Sachs is planning to implement a round of job cuts in the coming weeks that threatens to result in hundreds of dismissals among the bank’s employees, according to a person briefed on the matter.

      In a sign of the dealmaking slowdown on Wall Street, Goldman will restart its annual cull of underperforming bankers, which it paused during the coronavirus pandemic as banks struggled to keep up with the workload.

      The process typically results in between 1 and 5 per cent of company-wide employees losing their jobs, with the impending review set to result in dismissals towards the lower end of that range, the person said.

      At the end of June, Goldman had about 47,000 employees across investment banking, trading, asset and wealth management, consumer banking and operational functions.

      A Goldman spokesperson declined to comment. The planned job cuts were first reported by the New York Times on Monday.

      Goldman finance chief Denis Coleman telegraphed the dismissals in July when he said the bank was looking at ways to slash costs, including reintroducing the year-end performance review of its employees.

      The Financial Times previously reported that Goldman had paused hiring some replacements for departing bankers.

      The planned dismissals are indicative of broader concerns in finance of job cuts amid a drop-off in dealmaking activity and a slowdown in economic growth in the US and Europe.

      It reflects the feast-or-famine nature of the banking industry, with the cull set to follow a blockbuster year of profits in 2021 for the sector.
      …

  36. 12 Sep, 2022 10:48

    Germany has ‘crossed red line’ – Russia

    There will be no turning back after Berlin supplied arms to kill Russians, Moscow’s envoy says

    Germany has crossed a red line with Russia by sending arms to Ukraine, Moscow’s ambassador in Berlin said on Monday. The decision undermined decades of reconciliation since the end of World War II and the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, the diplomat added.

    “The very fact that the Ukrainian regime is being supplied with German-made lethal weapons, which are used not only against Russian military service members, but also the civilian population of Donbass, crosses the red line,” Ambassador Sergey Nechaev said in an interview with Izvestia newspaper.

    https://www.rt.com/trends/germany-news-eu-economy/

    1. “There will be no turning back after Berlin supplied arms to kill Russians, Moscow’s envoy says”

      They’re still upset about Stalingrad?

      1. upset about Stalingrad
        I’m sure. I was in the USSR in ’87 (Moscow, Kiev, St. Petersburg). We were struck by the hatred the Russians had for the Germans. It was intense; The Battle of Stalingrad was brought up often by the tour guides.

        1. I was in the USSR in ’87 (Moscow, Kiev, St. Petersburg).

          Did you visit the Holodomor Memorial, Stalin’s genocide?

          1. I remember seeing Babi Yar in Kiev, part of tour. I remember us watching a string quartet in a little concert hall and being so tired that when we looked at each other we’d laugh, like church. Couldn’t stop so I left, walked around by myself for about an hour.
            Left my jean jacket behind for about two minutes – gone. People would feel your clothing. Lenin’s tomb guard used a rifle to close the collar of my shirt, felt that I wasn’t being respectful (two buttons unbuttoned). The Intourist kid and I were having a lot of fun talking so he got taken away out of the blue on the street, yelled at by old ladies in group saying I got him in trouble, he was back the next day, was fine since he was an official guide, we gave him a bottle of Bailey’s we’d brought to take home. Drew a crowd when using a tiny solar calculator, everybody wanted to see it. Gave it to the first guy.
            We lived on ice cream and vodka for a week because the food was so bad, empty shelves in stores. I started skipping breakfast to sleep, again chastised by one battleaxe in group. Told her she could have my piece of cheese.
            Aeroflot – you had to run across the field to get on the plane to make sure you would sit together and the entertainment was a Viewmaster viewer (!)
            I needed a vacation after that one.

  37. DOJ Refuses to Release Biden Administration Plan to Intervene in 2022 Election

    OEL B. POLLAK
    12 Sep 2022

    The Department of Justice (DOJ) is refusing to release 15 pages of documents explaining the Biden administration’s strategy to implement a “voter access” policy that is being coordinated with left-wing groups just weeks before the 2022 election.

    In March 2021, President Joe Biden signed Executive Order 14019, “Promoting Access to Voting.” As Breitbart News noted:

    President Joe Biden issued an executive order on “access to voting” on Sunday that instructs federal government agencies to promote voter registration, help Americans apply to vote by mail, and “combat misinformation,” among other measures.

    The “Executive Order on Promoting Access to Voting” reads like a Democratic Party wish-list of “reforms” that enshrines many of the practices that were adopted on a temporary basis during the pandemic-affected 2020 election. Its provisions include:

    using federal agencies to promote voter registration;
    using federal agencies to inform Americans about voting;
    linking federal agency websites to state voter registration websites;
    providing voter registration and vote-by-mail applications;
    using “approved, nonpartisan third-party organizations” to register voters at federal agencies;
    using identification documents issued by the agency to help people register to vote;
    providing more multilingual services to potential voters;
    giving public employees “time off to vote in Federal, State, local, Tribal, and territorial elections”; and
    promoting voter registration for federal prisoners.

    One provision states: “It is the responsibility of the Federal Government to expand access to, and education about, voter registration and election information, and to combat misinformation, in order to enable all eligible Americans to participate in our democracy.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/12/doj-refuses-to-release-biden-administration-plan-to-intervene-in-2022-midterm-election/

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