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The Post-Covid Bubble Is Unraveling

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “As of Sept. 9, there were 2,699 single-family homes listed for sale with the Multiple Listing Service of Colorado Springs, broker Harry Salzman said. ‘That’s five times where we were six months ago,’ he said. Ann Kidd, chairperson of the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors, calls the current situation an adjustment. ‘Things have come into balance, is how I would describe it, down from the frenzied pace a year go,’ she said. ‘I’m not kidding when I say you could stick a sign in the yard and the house would be sold in hours. What we’re seeing now is going back more to business as usual.'”

“Three weeks ago, Tracie Marsh was set to sell her home for a price significantly higher than expected. Last night she went under contract again, with a lower offer. ‘A lot of that was due to interest rates climbing so much in those three weeks, we were a little more concerned about the housing market going down a little more, and if we waited too long to accept an offer, then maybe we would lose out,’ Marsh said. Marsh was on both sides of the aisle, a buyer looking for a home in Statesville and a seller 50 miles away in Vale.”

“For Lynnea Miller, principal broker at Bend Premier Real Estate, declining home prices were nothing to be afraid of. Unlike the last housing bubble, she expects this price decline will even the playing field between buyers and sellers. ‘It used to be that the asking price was the floor of what would be the agreed to sales price. Now the asking price may be the ceiling,’ says Miller.”

“The median closed sale price for a home in Pierce County was $555,000 in August, down from $575,000 in July. NWMLS data shows Pierce County’s housing inventory has grown over 112% since this time last year. ‘We have more inventory now than we’ve had in three and a half years,’ Gorden said. ‘We’ve really seen that in all the price ranges,’ explained Regina Madiera-Gorden, a managing broker of Windermere Abode Lakewood.”

“After more than two years of hot housing market conditions in the D.C. region, there is a noticeable cooling trend. Would-be sellers do need to adjust their price expectations. There is evidence that sellers are already making adjustments, as more than 40 percent of all properties on the market at the end of August in the Washington area have dropped in price.”

“Houston home sales fell for the fifth consecutive month. Single-family home sales slid 16.9 percent in August from the same month a year earlier, according to the Houston Association of Realtors. But prices continue to rise. The median sales price increased nearly 11 percent over the year to $341,950, but remains below the record $354,440 reached in June. ‘For the past two years, Houston housing has been like a runaway train, and what we’ve been seeing most recently is an engineer, finally at the throttle, applying the brakes so the train can pull safely into the next station,’ said HAR Chair Jennifer Wauhob.”

“Los Angeles County will move forward with a plan to lift its pandemic-era eviction moratorium and other renter protections by the end of the year. ‘Hopefully many owners now hanging on by the skin of their teeth will have a chance to survive and avoid foreclosure,’ said Dan Yukelson, chief executive of the Apartment Assn. of Los Angeles. ‘Unfortunately for far too many it is far too late. I have spoken to too many owners who have been compelled to sell their properties at discounts or while in foreclosure.'”

“At last week’s 30-year rate of 5.89%, the buyer of a median-priced home is looking at a monthly payment of $2,100, a 66% jump from last year, according to Realtor.com. ‘The record low interest rates that we’ve seen over the last two and a half years have really allowed home price growth to outpace income growth,’ Andy Walden, recently told Yahoo Money. ‘In this affordability landscape it would take a combination of a 40% rise in incomes, roughly a three percentage point decline in 30-year rates, or a 30% pullback in home prices.'”

“The Toronto-area fall real estate market appears to be off to a slow start. Elise Stern, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd., says some homeowners have decided they won’t sell for a diminished price. ‘The buyers want a deal and the sellers are not in a rush to sell,’ Ms. Stern says. ‘If sellers don’t have to sell, they’re waiting for their number.’ And while sellers are holding out for a return to strong price gains, many buyers today are strenuously arguing for a markdown. ‘We’re getting offers but they’re definitely bottom feeders.'”

“The average price of a Canadian home sold in August was $637,673, a number that has fallen by more than 20 per cent since February. ‘The standoff between sellers who need to come to the reality that early-2022 prices don’t exist anymore and buyers who simply can’t pay as much will continue,’ said economist Robert Kavcic with Bank of Montreal.”

“The latest figures released by industry tracker Glenigan reveal that the value of work commencing on site fell 35 per cent during the three months to the end of August to stand 30 per cent lower than the same period a year ago. Across the board, construction orders increased to the lowest extent last month since the lockdown of June 2020, according to the latest S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index, with cost pressures cited as a factor. 3D Reid managing director Graham Hickson-Smith said recent construction figures suggested that the ‘post-Covid bubble’ was ‘unravelling’, he said: ‘We all hoped that would last longer than it did.'”

“Housing has fallen in price by 30-50%, and home-buyers can mainly thank the Armed Forces of Ukraine for this. In April, Russian media outlet Lenta.ru counted 19,000 ads for the sale of apartments in the Crimea in the database of the Mir Kvartir (World of Apartments) real estate agency. Currently, there are 33,200 of them, according to a study by NV Business. These are declared prices, the real ones can be twice as low, says Serhiy Stepenko, managing partner of SV Development consulting company. ‘It’s obvious that no one wants to buy housing on the peninsula,’ he says. ‘Who will buy an apartment in the Crimea now?'”

“Experts are warning New Zealand is riding the house building boom into another fiasco with echoes of the leaky building saga. A first-time home buyer couple, who asked not to be named while they sought legal advice, were this week meant to be settling on a Lower Hutt townhouse. ‘We expected small touch-ups might be needed but were shocked and gutted at what we found,’ he said. ‘[The developer] said it would fix the issues but there was no timeframe or apology. We worked really hard to reach the milestone of buying our first home and now we feel completely let down.'”

“Thailand’s Real Estate Information Center (REIC) in its September 2022 report indicates what everyone knows: there are a lot of unsold condominium units in Pattaya. Several future developments could well transform prospects, including the return of the Chinese who already own half the foreign-owned condominium units in all major Thai cities. A major problem with the condo market is a glut of studio apartments, those 30 sqm apartments in which a cat cannot be swung around.”

“Meanwhile the government has controversially relaxed the ruling that foreigners cannot own freehold property under their own name. Those who are willing to invest 40 million baht, about one million pounds, in property, security or funds over a three-year period can qualify for one rai or 1,600 sqm in Thailand, not a particularly generous upper limit. Many social media critics say only rich idiots would contemplate such an offer in Sin City.”

“Guangzhou has permitted developers to slash sale prices of homes by as much as 20 per cent, the first among China’s four top-tier cities to be allowed such dramatic discounting, as tepid demand plagues even the country’s economically most vibrant cities. Guangzhou, a city of nearly 19 million people, widened developers’ permissible discounting in home sale prices to a maximum of 20 per cent from 6 per cent, financial news outlet Yicai reported on Thursday.”

“Among the tier-one cities, average home prices in Guangzhou were the weakest in August at 25,000 yuan ($3,580) per square metre versus Shenzhen’s 55,000 yuan, according to China Index Academy. S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday that the sector needs up to 800 billion yuan to ensure distressed developers can finish presold homes. ‘If falling sales tip more developers into distressed territory, things will get worse,’ S&P said. ‘In our downside scenario, that number could rise as high as 1.8 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan.'”

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This Post Has 131 Comments

  1. ‘I’m not kidding when I say you could stick a sign in the yard and the house would be sold in hours’

    Can’t help but look back at the former red hotness. That’s some sound lending right there.

  2. ‘average home prices in Guangzhou were the weakest in August at 25,000 yuan ($3,580) per square metre versus Shenzhen’s 55,000 yuan’

    Is that a lot?

    1. People who meekly acquiesce to living under Communist tyranny, whether in the PRC or California, deserve to suffer the consequences of going along with such malgovernance.

      1. To be fair, the PRC generally doesn’t allow people to leave. At least you still don’t need Gavin Newsom’s permission to leave Clownifornia.

          2. When voters repeal TABOR, that’s when we’ll know it’s over. For the time being voters are still loath to approve big spending bills (the last highway bill went down in flames) that are exempt from TABOR spending limits, so taxes in Colorado are still relatively low. But that can and will change.

          1. I know, they are kicking that idea around in California, even wanting to tax your income up to 10 years after you leave. All I can say is, better get out while you can.

  3. “‘It used to be that the asking price was the floor of what would be the agreed to sales price. Now the asking price may be the ceiling,’ says Miller.”

    Yep. The market has shifted from English to Dutch auction mode.

  4. ‘Unfortunately for far too many it is far too late. I have spoken to too many owners who have been compelled to sell their properties at discounts or while in foreclosure’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now?

    1. Compelled??

      Like an exorcism or the FBI taking the Mr. Pillow Guy cell phone?

      Or is that like a negotiation in a stable market?

  5. ‘homeowners have decided they won’t sell for a diminished price. ‘The buyers want a deal and the sellers are not in a rush to sell,’ Ms. Stern says. ‘If sellers don’t have to sell, they’re waiting for their number.’ And while sellers are holding out for a return to strong price gains, many buyers today are strenuously arguing for a markdown. ‘We’re getting offers but they’re definitely bottom feeders’

    That’s right Elise, stand yer ground. Don’t give it away to those bottom feeders.

  6. ‘Last night she went under contract again, with a lower offer. ‘A lot of that was due to interest rates climbing so much in those three weeks, we were a little more concerned about the housing market going down a little more, and if we waited too long to accept an offer, then maybe we would lose out’

    Dammit Tracy, yer giving it away!

  7. ‘Several future developments could well transform prospects, including the return of the Chinese who already own half the foreign-owned condominium units in all major Thai cities. A major problem with the condo market is a glut of studio apartments, those 30 sqm apartments in which a cat cannot be swung around’

    But money launderers don’t care if they lose money?

    ‘Many social media critics say only rich idiots would contemplate such an offer in Sin City’

    Click!

  8. ‘recent construction figures suggested that the ‘post-Covid bubble’ was ‘unravelling’, he said: ‘We all hoped that would last longer than it did’

    We’re all in this together Graham Hickson. A mild respiratory illness can’t keep shack prices up 50% in 2 years. How anyone ever thought it could is another matter.

    1. I was in Seattle yesterday. There’s FOR SALE and FOR LEASE signs everywhere like dandelions. Meanwhile construction crews are busy slapping together these “5 over 1” buildings, i.e., condos over retail that are too costly to pencil out. I bought an Americano (coffee) and a large oatmeal cookie for the drive home, $7.59 that included a tip for the hottie with a nose ring in one nostril; priced like an airport!

  9. Ann Kidd, chairperson of the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors, calls the current situation an adjustment.

    “It’s just a gully,” quoth Suzanne.

  10. NWMLS data shows Pierce County’s housing inventory has grown over 112% since this time last year.

    Is that a lot?

  11. ‘For the past two years, Houston housing has been like a runaway train, and what we’ve been seeing most recently is an engineer, finally at the throttle, applying the brakes so the train can pull safely into the next station,’ said HAR Chair Jennifer Wauhob.”

    No, Jennifer. What we’re seeing is the Fed finally getting spooked that soaring inflation is on the verge of causing social unrest, and millions of former sheeple are becoming red-pilled, which has the elites clutching their pearls and updating their getaway plans for when the pitchforks start marching. Now Housing Bubble 2.0 is going to implode like a supernova. Got popcorn?

  13. The 2020 election was stolen.

    There are over 80 million of us, and we will not be silenced. This isn’t Facebook, this isn’t Twitter, this isn’t YouTube, this isn’t Reddit, here we can discuss, without censorship, that the 2020 election was stolen.

    Joe Biden is not, and will never be, the legitimately elected president of the United States. Attorney General Merrick Garland was installed by an un-elected president, and has no legitimate authority of anything.

    January 6th is a joke. All the Glowies out marching in their khakis and shields and flags so new they still have creases, you are cucks. While you are out marching in your phony Fedsurrection, your wife is at home getting plowed by MAGA Chad.

    The 2020 election was stolen.

  14. “…($3,580) per square metre…”

    1 square meter =
    10.764 square feet

    So $3,580/10.764 = $333 per square foot

    Sounds quite expensive for a CR8Ring economy.

  16. Linked from Revolver News.

    Hispanic Texans may now be the state’s largest demographic group, new census data shows (9/15/2022):

    https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/15/texas-demographics-census-2021/

    Replacement theory is not a theory. It is sponsored by the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Anti Defamation League.

    These two groups project some aura of governmental authority, which they do not have. They do not govern anything.

    They are Marxists, and anti-American.

      1. Unlike the UK Daily Mail, I’m not afraid to name the names.

        Southern Poverty Law Center.

        Let’s all say it together:

        Southern Poverty Law Center.

        Mark Potok, one of the SPLC’s executives, has a chart on his office wall projecting the date that white Americans will become a minority in the United States.

        If you work in government or big corporations, the SPLC smear machine can probably cancel you. But the overwhelming majority of you, you can’t really be cancelled from anything meaningful. So keep on naming the names.

        Globalist sh*tbags, this country doesn’t belong to you.

        1. But they don’t surrender their white appropriated clothing, and all manner of communication devices, transportation inventions including ground and air vehicles, dress wardrobe, building style and fittings and other inventions they rely on daily and throughout the day, far beyond the imagination and scope if anything their native ancestors envisioned. Without whitey growing their food and inventing for them they would be in mud huts without a wheel.

          1. P.S. … and still be sold by their “own” like their brethen are this moment in the slave markets of Tripoli and elsewhere in their “homeland.”

          2. Keep in mind that they are pawns and the WEF/Davos crowd will throw them under the bus once they are no longer politically useful.

        2. Re SPLC. All I really want to know is how many of them or what percent at that place took the clot shot. Any way to find out?

          1. All I really want to know is how many of them or what percent at that place took the clot shot.

            I’m sure most of their minions did get jabbed; but I doubt the “people who matter” were jabbed even once.

    1. Markets
      CNBC TV
      Watchlist
      Bonds
      Bond yields rise, 2-year Treasury tops 3.85% on higher Fed rate hike expectations
      Published Thu, Sep 15 2022 5:30 AM EDT
      Updated Thu, Sep 15 2022 4:18 PM EDT
      Jesse Pound
      Natasha Turak

      Short-term U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise Thursday as investors weighed the prospect of larger rate hikes from the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week.

      The yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is among those most affected by Fed decisions, rose more than 7 basis points to 3.858%, its highest level since 2007. Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

      Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up more than 3 basis points to 3.447%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was marginally higher at 3.472%.

      The 1-year Treasury yield briefly topped 4% during the session.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/us-bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-ahead-of-fed-meeting.html

    2. The Economist
      Leaders | The perils of wishful thinking
      To fix America’s inflation problem, the Federal Reserve must go big
      The odds that a painful recession can be averted look woefully long
      Sep 14th 2022

      Over the summer a wild hope took hold among investors. Inflation seemed to be falling gently even as America’s economy stayed in rude health. Perhaps the worst bout of inflation since the 1980s would be easily quelled, without interest rates rising much further or much economic pain. Now the dream has been dashed. Figures published on September 13th show that the pace of underlying inflation in August was fast and furious. Stockmarkets fell by the most since the early months of the pandemic; the price of junk bonds dropped; and short-term Treasury yields spiked. America still has an inflation problem. To fix it, the Federal Reserve must go big.
      …

    3. No, it’s not. The continuing inflation and “good” job market are just giving Powell license for another rate hike. Some are predicting 100 basis points now.

    4. 2-year Treasury yields near 15 year highs as investor unease deepens ahead of Fed meeting
      Provided by Dow Jones
      Sep 16, 2022 4:51 AM PDT
      By Barbara Kollmeyer

      The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note climbed for a seventh straight trading session on Friday to its highest levels since October 2007, with investor unease growing ahead of an expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.

      The rise in the 2-year yield continued to outpace that of the 10-year yield, driving a deeply inverted Treasury curve that’s flagging worries over the economy.

      What yields are doing

      What’s driving the market?

      Traders are bracing for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting where some are calling for a 100 basis point rise in the benchmark policy rate, following a surprise jump in U.S. inflation in August earlier this week that sent stocks to their worst one-day performance since June 2020.

      Fresh economic gloom came from FedEx (FDX), whose shares slid 20% in premarket after the global shipper late Thursday withdrew its annual outlook and forecast sharply lower quarterly profit and lower revenue. FedEx’s warning also weighed premarket trade on Wall Street open, with stock futures in the red.

      Yields have been rising on expectations the Federal Reserve will hike by at least 75 basis points next week and keep rates higher for longer. That has intensified a yield curve inversion between 2 and 10-year Treasurys, where the former is more than 40 basis points higher than the later.
      …
      https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20220916292/2-year-treasury-yields-near-15-year-highs-as-investor-unease-deepens-ahead-of-fed-meeting

    5. September 14, 2022 11:34 AM PDT
      Last Updated 2 days ago
      Analysis: ‘More damage to be done’ as sizzling inflation seen lifting Treasury yields
      By David Randall
      4 minute read
      Plastic letters arranged to read “Inflation” are placed on U.S. Dollar banknote in this illustration taken, June 12, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

      NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) – Expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve are pushing some investors to revise how much further bond yields can rise, a potentially unwelcome development for already-battered equity and fixed income markets.
      …
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/more-damage-be-done-sizzling-inflation-seen-lifting-treasury-yields-2022-09-14/

    6. Reuters
      September 16, 2022 7:50 AM PDT
      Last Updated 3 hours ago
      Stocks fall, 2-year yields soar with rates, economy in focus
      By Sinéad Carew
      3 minute read

      NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Wall Street indexes followed European stocks lower on Friday and short-dated Treasury yields soared while the dollar rose as investors braced for a U.S. interest rate hike next week and grew alarmed at signs of a global economic slowdown.
      …
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-09-16/

  19. The only good thing about Reddit is that when it bans one of its subs, you know that the site that replaces it on the communities dot win site is worth reading.

    The_Donald got banned, then re-launched and eventually renamed itself patriots dot win. No New Normal and Consume Product on dot win are two other former Reddit subs.

    Always promote alternatives to globalist media. Bitchute, Rumble, Odysee for video and streaming.

    Always call out and name shadow globalists. The best example of this is the UK Daily Mail, which is not “conservative” it is globalist and Murdoch owned, just like the New York Post.

    The Daily Mail publishes scripted outrage clickbait narratives, but it will NEVER challenge the military industrial complex, big pharma, or unelected globalists like the World Economic Forum.

    The New York Post published the Hunter Biden laptop story in 2020 (and got nuked from Twitter for it), but that does not mean they are “conservative” because they will throw you a few crumbs, but at the end of the day, they won’t stray from the globalist plantation.

    Information is power. Share it.

    2. weird that it didn’t just collapse like those other buildings………. I would have thought US building standards would have been better than China’s. guess not.

  22. Be careful when reading websites like Breitbart, because they only give you part of the story.

    “New York Fashion Week featured a 10-year-old transgender model, furthering suspicions of the far left attempting to thrust radical gender ideology on children and society as a whole.

    The transgender child, who is a biological male but believes he is a girl, also walked for the Trans Clothing Company in New York Fashion Week in February. He currently holds the title as the youngest transgender model to walk in both shows, according to Reuters.

    What is more, the boy’s parents strongly support their confused son’s dreams of being a transgender activist. According to the report, the boy came out as transgender when he was just two years old.”

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/09/15/10-year-old-transgender-model-featured-in-new-york-fashion-week/

    Under Marxism, children are property of the state. The Old Testament of the Bible has language to describe this, and that term is abomination.

    And yes, when you buy a house, your property taxes are paying to promote this in the public schools.

    Keep on naming the names. If the name is known, share that name. Andy Ngo isn’t afraid to name the names, and neither should you.

    1. “What is more, the boy’s parents strongly support their confused son’s dreams of being a transgender activist.”

      Is it any wonder that kids are confused when their parents look like something out of a freak show?

  23. American patience with Germany wearing thin – Die Welt

    The US wants Europe’s richest state to provide more military aid to Ukraine, newspaper reports .

    Berlin appears to be increasingly out of step with its allies across the pond when it comes to arming Ukraine, Germany’s Die Welt daily reported on Thursday, adding that the issue is impacting relations between the NATO allies. The US allegedly wants Germany to take a more resolute approach towards military assistance for Kiev, it said.

    “Losing patience” seems to be a hallmark of the Brandon regime. I recall being told a year ago that they were losing their patience with me and then having them try to mandate that I get jabbed with an experimental substance.

    2. Germany is a cuck nation.

      The World Economic Forum specifically expanded the age of its “Young Leaders” program to induct Angela Merkel, who was 43 at the time, and who is now nothing more than an aging, unloved, barren womb.

      German cucks will be wearing masks from October to April every year, forever, because they are not citizens, they are slaves.

      1. German cucks will be wearing masks from October to April every year, forever

        That still blows me away, what a bunch of losers. They’re going to freeze in the dark while wearing masks.

    3. It is a targeted death shot. Nothing experimental about it. They know precisely what it is. And the TV shows showing them getting a shot is a saline pseudo psych out.

      1. Still waiting on the long term effects, as the short term ones, while deadly, were not sufficiently numerous for any meaningful depopulation.

        I recall that some organization had posted estimated populations, and were showing 50% drops in many countries by 2025. Those pages were quickly and quietly changed to not show that, IIRC. That would sync with the jab having severe long term effects. Will have to wait and see.

          3. Their predictions were even more ominous than I remembered. I suppose that if everyone who got jabbed dies by 2025, then their forecast will come true.

          6. Looks like a military site.

            And they only show the 2019 population numbers now. Fortunately, others did save the page with their 2025 projections, which offered no explanation for the massive die offs being predicted.

  24. Why read the New York Times or Washington Post when you could read Russia Today:

    “Speaking at the SCO summit in Samarkand, President Xi said that member states should “support each other’s efforts to protect security and development interests,” noting that the world is undergoing “accelerating changes unseen in a century,” and has entered a phase of uncertainty and transformation.

    He added that it is paramount to “guard against attempts by external forces to provoke a color revolution, and jointly oppose interference in other countries’ internal affairs under any pretext,” referring to Western-backed protests that have aimed to overthrow governments in post-Soviet countries.

    Xi’s statement came as Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the growing influence of “new centers of power” that cooperate with each other and have the capacity to challenge the West’s global dominance.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/562930-china-xi-jinping-color-revolutions/

    What does The West have that China or Russia actually need?

    What is The West exactly?

    It’s not Christian, it’s not European. What are its alleged “values” that it thinks the rest of the world needs?

    Keep on naming those names. And LMFAO@ Wikipedia scrubbing the “Early Life” sections from bios.

  25. A reader sent these in:

    Lots of vested interests are being hurt by rates normalization. That’s why you see all the vehemence by some in the media. When you’re a RE scumbag that made a career profiting from Fed absurd policies to exploit rent trapped low income families, you gonna bitch about it.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1570490157119438853

    Here’s a good visual snapshot of zestimates in our region. This home had a zestimate of 735,000 in January 2022, peaked at 880k in May 2022, and sold a week ago for 740k. Because it just sold, current estimate pegs to the sale price and is accurate.

    https://twitter.com/OGtexasrunner/status/1570479833007923202

    Yet another STR clown who blocked me for simply telling him this was coming. Sept bookings now at 35%.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1566533755472191488

    I circled the @federalreserve mistakes on the housing market

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1564288468787744768

    Mark Zandi

    Here’s my latest piece for the @washingtonpost on why the U.S. housing market is headed for a correction, not a crash.

    https://twitter.com/Markzandi/status/1570485073279066114

    Many of Moody’s largest clients are lenders: https://moodysanalytics.com/microsites/sav-clients
    When will “economists” who work for RE interests or feigned objectives (Moody’s in this case) be properly classified as marketers? They affect consumer sentiment. They know they have sway and they abuse it.

    https://twitter.com/windgineering/status/1570500814208405504

    This could literally be 2022

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1570489625025843200

    I love how Wall Street criminals had no problem with the Fed cutting rates by 150bps in a single month but throw a fit at the possibility of the Fed raising rates by a 100bps in one meeting.

    https://twitter.com/TheMaverickWS/status/1570473866065223680

    People responding to @Opendoor on Instagram get it

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1542768876198367232

    Former Fed Chair Greenspan used to refer to FedEx as a barometer for the state of the economy.

    https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1570522185340719105

    WHERE👏THE 👏F$CK 👏IS 👏MATT 👏DAMON 👏 👏 👏

    https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1570539159366021122

    Sorry Rose, but there isnt much value in median price information. You have a bunch of ridiculously overpriced properties that dont have a prayer of selling at even 1/2 of some of these list prices. Rich people arent stupid, and they know the party is over. Most of them anyway.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1570536981863735297

    You will be returning to pre-pandemic price levels for sure, Teddy. Everything doubled in 2020, which was absurd. Sure, some WFH demand was real, but the rest was flippers. Now they are running out of runway. Down 30% from list price is a gift to sellers.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1570535571466096641

    Fed behaves one way when inflation is 1%, and is forced to behave another way when it is 8%. This time they will tighten until they break something. That something will junk, securitization and PE. But this time there will be no bailouts, they will leave the dishes on the floor.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1570412520049119232

    Remember in March, April, and May when everyone (except 4 of you) said builders had no unsold inventory and I was nuts? I do 🙋🏻‍♂️😉

    https://twitter.com/koakley81/status/1570580547923222528

    Passive real estate investors that bought in at a 3% / 4% cap rate are about to see their equity wiped out.

    https://twitter.com/BobHous24678424/status/1570451729875079174

    2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.87% & average new home price in the US was $405k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.02% & average new home price is $547k. Result: $28k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 96% increase in monthly payment (from $1,343 to $2,628).

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1570417546498813952

    1. “Result: $28k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 96% increase in monthly payment (from $1,343 to $2,628).”

      How many people are putting down 20% and paying $2,628?

      My guess: Approximately none.

      Anyone who can do that is already comfortably housed, and nobody wants to sell when prices are falling.

      1. The Fed officially stopped buying MBS today. Up until now they were still rolling over some as they tapered it down but as of today they are no longer buying any. It will be interesting to see how this affects down payments and other aspects like interest rates. We should see more tightening starting around tomorrow. Lots of people haven’t received the memo that they are trapped yet.

      2. Anyone who can do that is already comfortably housed, and nobody wants to sell when prices are falling.’

        Or when they locked in a low 30 year rate

  26. Housing
    Published September 15, 2022 7:53am EDT
    Redfin predicts sharpest turn in housing market since 2008 crash
    After two years of record high sales, data shows the housing market is starting to cool down
    By Rebekah Castor FOXBusiness
    For the first time in 17 months, the average home is selling for less than its list price, but high mortgage rates are still impacting what people can afford. video
    Redfin: ‘Sharpest turn in the housing market since the market crash in 2008’

    For the first time in 17 months, the average home is selling for less than its list price, but high mortgage rates are still impacting what people can afford.

    If you’re looking to buy a home soon, you’re in luck. After two years of record high sales, data shows the housing market is starting to cool down, but there is a catch.

    For the first time since March 2021, the average home is selling for less than its list price, but high mortgage rates are still impacting what people can afford.

    Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in 14 years, reaching nearly 6%, according to the real estate company Redfin.

    “This is the sharpest turn in the housing market since the housing market crash in 2008,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s Chief Economist.
    …
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/redfin-predicts-sharpest-turn-housing-market-since-2008-crash

    1. “If you’re looking to buy a home soon, you’re in luck.”

      Try not to catch yourself a falling knife knife. 🔪

  27. Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update: September 2022 | M&D Real Estate
    Sep 16, 2022 Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update: Down, But Not Out
    So where are we in the housing market currently? We are still in the middle of a shift, a hard shift. So let’s dig in and take a look at exactly what’s going on right now.
    The median price of homes in Dallas-Fort Worth was $415,000 in the month of August, up 15 percent year over year from August of last year. With that, we are beginning to see the price appreciation slow down, which is what we need for the consumer, the buyer – and the seller even — to be able to have an opportunity to buy a home at a reasonable price.
    Price appreciation has gone down from around 30 percent to now at 15 percent, and I really believe it needs to move another 10 to 12 percent to get to a more normalized price appreciation, where you get that 3 to 5 percent year over year appreciation.
    And I think that’s what we are going to have to see before we see the market move again in a strong way.
    The good news is that inventory is rising, and prices are coming down.
    Looking at our local market here, at the price drops, we have been averaging in our area about 30 price drops per day and today, in the last 24 hours, it was 101 price reductions on homes. That’s good news for the buyer and even for the seller. Sellers might not want to lower their price but if you’re planning on making a move, you will make it up on the buy side because you will realize that lower priced as well.
    We have got to get the prices down in order to offset that new 6.2 percent interest rate on the average mortgage right now. So prices have to come down in order for us to get the market moving and to see more buying activity.
    We expect we’re peaking out on interest rates between this 5.5 to 6.25 percent range. We’ll probably just see things fluctuate back and forth within that range in the coming months. The federal reserve has plans to raise interest rates again, but typically the market has already built in what those rates are going to be. If anything, I think we will see lowering of interest rates as inflation comes down.
    But speaking of inflation, we are starting to see more inventory across the board – in car lots, houses, everywhere you go. For instance, inventory of homes is up 68 percent in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Homes sales have dropped, car sales have dropped, people are being offered more incentives on financing. It’s all moving the right direction. The same for homes sales. Home sales have dropped 10 percent year over year. And in fact, home sales in Collin County have dropped a whopping 20 percent year over year.
    Prices have to adjust and they’re beginning to do so, so that’s the good news.
    Rents right now are higher as well. Rent prices are 14 percent higher year over year. So those are also beginning to moderate. Whereas before it was 20 to 25 percent price appreciation, now it’s down to 14 percent. We manage a lot of properties in our property management division of M&D Real Estate, and we are even making some price adjustments on rentals. However, there is still high demand.
    Because fundamentally, the DFW Metroplex is just going to keep moving up and forward. The reality is that our metroplex will continue to appreciate over time, barring any geopolitical catastrophe in the market of course.
    So we are seeing rents moderate, home price appreciation come down and inventory go up. This is all good and going in the right direction. Because truthfully, things were out of control regarding the price appreciation the past two years, so interest rate increases are doing exactly what they were supposed to do, which is slow things down. Being in real estate, I don’t like that for business purposes, but I do know it’s better and healthier over the long-term for the housing market.
    Now let’s look at a county by county breakdown of the numbers….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLhONV9i-l8

    11:18.

    1. “The good news is that inventory is rising, and prices are coming down.”

      The bad news is that the market has just barely begun to correct, and the snowball could turn into an avalanche as people catch on.

    2. Someone I know in little Iving Texas, DFW area, said a typical residence listed for $450k sold for $700k+ last year at the top and right now is selling for $405k, all sales below list.

      1. Per movoto. the media sales price on my little burg has dropped from 605K to 580K. Almost nothing for sale in my neighborhood. The bubble is still clinging to dear life here.

  28. We read and share these articles so we can understand these globalists, and use their own narrative to undermine and destroy them.

    Salon — How the Big Lie poison continues to spread — and why it’s getting worse (9/16/2022):

    “Donald Trump’s Big Lie about the 2020 presidential election — which is now supported by most of the Republican Party — continues to spread across America. This infection of the mind, heart, brain, and spirit now inflicts tens of millions of Americans.”

    80+ million voted for Trump in 2020. What they get wrong is that it’s 200+ million that acknowledge that Trump won, even if many of them didn’t vote in the election.

    “However Joe Biden and other pro-democracy leaders seek to massage the situation, there is no distinction between “MAGA Republicans” and any other kind. In its embrace of the Big Lie and its general contempt for democracy, civil rights, truth and empirical reality and any shared norms of human decency, the Republican Party has fully surrendered to racial authoritarianism.”

    Another falsehood in that last sentence there, because the Christian Nationalist Homeland is not racially exclusive, it only excludes globalists.

    “Where are we now with the spreading poison of the Big Lie? CNN reports that 19 of the 35 U.S. Senate seats being contested this year feature Republican nominees who “have challenged the legitimacy of the 2020 election — rejecting, raising doubts about or taking steps to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory.” That list “includes five incumbent senators and 11 other candidates who have at least a reasonable chance of winning in November.”

    Last month, the Washington Post reported that the winners of this year’s state-level Republican primaries “fit a pattern: Across the battleground states that decided the 2020 vote, candidates who deny the legitimacy of that election have claimed nearly two-thirds of GOP nominations for state and federal offices with authority over elections.”

    In a new essay for the Nation, Chris Lehmann issues a real-time warning about the critical danger to American democracy this year, observing that FiveThirtyEight reports that “118 full-on election deniers” are likely to win election to Congress this fall.”

    https://www.salon.com/2022/09/16/how-the-big-lie-poison-continues-to-spread–and-why-its-getting-worse/

    If The Atlantic is all Acela Corridor faculty lounge navel gazing, Salon is its angry blue haired tatted up screechy little sister.

    Trump won 2020.

    Don’t f* around with the Feds or you’ll get Mike Lindell’d in the Hardee’s drive thru.

    Weimar America is dying, the future belongs to us, not them.

  29. Don’t look now, but mortgage rates have shot up to their highest level since 2008.

    Does anyone reading here recall how the housing market did that year?

    1. US mortgage rates hit 14-year high as inflation soars
      Published 21 hours ago

      The cost of a typical mortgage in the US has hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis as the country battles to rein in soaring prices.

      The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage hit 6.02% this week, more than double what it was a year ago.

      For families hoping to buy a home, the moves compound affordability problems.

      The rise comes as the US central bank aggressively raises rates in an effort to reduce the pressures driving up inflation across the economy.

      US consumer prices rose by 8.3% in the year to August, the fastest rate in almost 40 years, the Labor Department said this week.

      The figure was higher than expected, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates aggressively. Mortgage rates have spiked in anticipation of the moves.

      “Rates continued to rise alongside hotter-than-expected inflation numbers this week, exceeding 6% for the first time since late 2008,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage firm that released the interest rate data.

      By raising borrowing costs, policymakers are hoping to lower demand from businesses and households, thereby reducing the pressures pushing up prices.

      But in the housing market, while higher rates have slowed sales, property prices continue to climb.

      The cost of a typical home in the US was more than $400,000 (£348,000) in July, up more than 10% from a year earlier.

      “Although the increase in rates will continue to dampen demand and put downward pressure on home prices, inventory remains inadequate,” Mr Khater said.
      …
      https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62918085

  30. I’m in Lauren Boebert’s Congressional District. Unfortunately, I can’t vote for her because my property here doesn’t have an address that I can register to vote from.

    Talk to your family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, people you go to church with. They’ll be more receptive than you may expect.

    Talk about what has happened to this country the past few years. Get them to open up and name the names. Plant the seed of pattern recognition.

    Globalism isn’t some organic movement that happened on its own. Start that conversation, and get every one you talk to to start ten more conversations.

    There are too many of us to be silenced. And remember, Marxism can never be negotiated with, the only option in this existential struggle for the future of the United States is the complete and final extermination of Marxism.

  32. Steiner Ranch Housing Report – September 2022 | Austin, Texas
    Craig Smyser
    Sep 15, 2022 Steiner Ranch Housing Report – September 2022 | Austin, Texas

    We’ve had a little uptick in buying activity, but prices continue to come down. In August, 13 resale homes closed in Steiner Ranch which was down 55% from August 2021. This is an extremely low number for August. If we look at 2020 when 34 homes closed, the drop is 62%. The median price in August increased year-over-year by 1.5% to $900,000. The average price of a home increased 3.6% to $1,010,212. The average price per square foot increased by 3.9% to $305.94. With only 13 homes comprising the data this month, it’s hard to say conclusively, that this is where the market is today. Personally, I think the median would be a little higher if we had a better representation of the market in Steiner, but I can safely say the median is now under $1 million and will continue to come down for a while longer. I’ve always said that one month of data isn’t a good read on the overall market and that I prefer to look at a longer period of time. However, given the current market, when we look at the year-to-date sales, they are overstated because we are including prices from when the market was higher. But, let’s look at them anyway. In the first eight months of 2022, the number of resale homes sold is 125, down 39% from the same time frame last year. The median price of a home has increased 31% to $1,085,000. The average price increased by 23% to $1,180,797. The average price per square foot increased 21% to $349.17. Now it’s hard to say exactly what was the peak median price because our data tends to swing so much from month to month, but we are probably down 12% or so. This drop is a bit larger than what we see overall in the Austin area market, which is down 8% from the peak price that was hit in May.

    The number of available resale homes at the end of August was 52, up from 21 last August. This is down from the 63 in July, but there were 10 homes that were taken off the market without selling during August. Some were rented out and others will wait until later to try selling again. During August, 12 new listings hit the market which is less than half of last year. One bright spot in August was the 20 new contracts. Not all price ranges of homes participated in this, but any improvement is nice to see.

    The average sales price to list price ratio was 97.3%, which was the lowest we’ve seen since the end of 2019. For homes that closed in August, the average days on market was 24, up from 11 last year. It’s also doubled from 12 days in July. Across Steiner, the August sales ranged from a low of $531,750 to a high of $2,275,000.

    While the prices continues to move down, I’ll continue to track the number of price reductions. During August, there were 88 price reductions on homes in Steiner. Given the total number of homes on the market during the month, that averages out to more than one price drop for every home. The 88 price reductions was a four-fold increase from the 22 in August of last year. It’s also up from the prior month of July, when there were 70.

    I will reiterate what I’ve been saying for a few months. I believe the Austin economy is strong and that the outlook for housing in the medium and long term is extremely positive. However, the short term is questionable after the rapid appreciation of the past two years and the rapid increase in interest rates this year (as of today, mortgage rates are almost double from the start of the 2022). Of course, interest rates will climb higher which is the main driver of this slowdown. I don’t know when we will hit the bottom either in terms of price or time frame, so we just have to work within the market we are given. I don’t want this to sound all doom and gloom, but I do want to present an accurate picture of the market. Homes are selling in Steiner now and will continue throughout this downturn. Sellers just have to realize how the prices have changed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr_1uxqkY8w

    5:10.

  33. ‘In this affordability landscape it would take a combination of a 40% rise in incomes, roughly a three percentage point decline in 30-year rates, or a 30% pullback in home prices.’”

    The probability of the first two happening is close to zero so the third is a vast underestimation.

  34. https://www.theflstandard.com/vaccine-narrative-collapses-as-harvard-study-shows-jab-more-dangerous-than-covid/

    Vaccine Narrative Collapses as Harvard Study Shows Jab More Dangerous than COVID

    “As boosters that have not been tested on humans are being rolled out across the country, a new study indicates that the jab is far more dangerous than COVID-19 itself. And the CDC has provided false information regarding their tracking of adverse events linked to the vaccines.”

    Jonas Vesterberg
    September 14, 2022 . 3:30 PM

    “As government officials and mainstream media urges the vaccinated to inject a second so-called “bivalent” booster said to be targeting the Omicron variant, it turns out that this substance hasn’t been tested on humans. And the only animal trial that has been performed included eight mice.”

    ““It hasn’t been proven in a clinical trial, because we don’t have time to do a clinical trial because we need to get the vaccine out now because we have such a situation throughout the world and certainly in the United States, we’re having 400 deaths per day and up to 5,000 hospitalizations a day,” NIAID Dr Anthony Fauci explained in an interview.”

    “STUDY: WORSE THAN THE VIRUS”

    “A new study conducted by scientists from Harvard and Johns Hopkins, currently in pre-print, reveals that the COVID-19 vaccines were up to 98 times worse than the virus itself. The study is critical of the booster requirement for American university students, stating in the abstract: “Using CDC and sponsor-reported adverse event data, we find that booster mandates may cause a net expected harm: per COVID-19 hospitalisation prevented in previously uninfected young adults, we anticipate 18 to 98 serious adverse events, including 1.7 to 3.0 booster-associated myocarditis cases in males, and 1,373 to 3,234 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity which interferes with daily activities.””

    FALSE INFORMATION

    “As first reported in the Epoch Times, CDC has provided false information regarding their tracking of adverse events caused by the vaccines. At the same time, Walensky admits that there is a causal relationship between the mRNA vaccines and myocarditis:”

    – F*ck the CDC, Fauci, Walensky, and the horse they rode in on, which, IMHO is the globalists and Big Pharma. I’d like to know how much $ these genocidal manics received to spin a false narrative.
    – These vaccines are experimental. The following bio comes to mind…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josef_Mengele
    Josef Mengele
    Josef Mengele ([ˈjoːzɛf ˈmɛŋələ] (listen); 16 March 1911 – 7 February 1979), also known as the Angel of Death (German: Todesengel),[1] was a German Schutzstaffel (SS) officer and physician during World War II. He is mainly remembered for his actions at the Auschwitz II (Birkenau) concentration camp, where he performed deadly experiments on prisoners, as a member of the team of doctors who selected victims to be killed in the gas chambers[a] and as one of the doctors who administered the gas.”

    – Nuremburg trials 2.0 coming and the sooner the better.
    – Heads on pikes.

    3. This article was also linked from Revolver News, which is a great source for non globalist narratives.

      And +1 for the Josef Mengele reference. These globalists think they are going to get away with this.

      The Day Of The Rope is coming…

    2. Technology
      Chip Stocks Like Nvidia, Intel Keep Plunging to New Lows. It’s No Time to Bargain Hunt.
      By Tae Kim
      Sept. 16, 2022 2:05 pm ET

      With semiconductor stocks tumbling again, some chip investors may think it is time to go bargain hunting. That is not a good idea.

      While share prices are lower, the main problem is stocks are going down for legitimate reasons. And recent developments suggest business trends are getting worse—not better, meaning there could be more downside ahead.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/chip-stocks-news-nvidia-intel-samsung-51663351350

    3. Stocks fall after FedEx warns of global recession
      By Nicole Goodkind, CNN Business
      Updated 4:20 PM EDT, Fri September 16, 2022

      New York CNN Business —

      US stocks fell on Friday after FedEx served investors a brutal pre-earnings announcement about the state of the global economy.

      The Dow closed down 140 points, or 0.5%, lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.9%.

      All three major indexes logged their fourth losing week out of the last five. The Dow dropped 4.1% for the week, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 5% and 5.5%, respectively.

      Shares of FedEx (FDX) were down nearly 22% after the company withdrew its full-year guidance late Thursday and warned that a slowing economy will cause it to fall $500 million short of its revenue target. The weakening global economy, particularly in Asia and Europe has hurt FedEx (FDX) (FDX)’s express delivery business. The company said demand for packages weakened considerably in the final weeks of the quarter.

      During an interview Thursday on CNBC, FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam was asked if he believes the slowdown in his business is a sign of the start of a global recession.

      “I think so,” he responded. “These numbers, they don’t portend very well.”
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

    4. Markets
      BofA Sees New Lows for US Stocks as Inflation Shock ‘Ain’t Over’
      – High inflation, earnings recession to fuel declines: Hartnett
      – European stock funds see redemptions for 31st straight week
      By Sagarika Jaisinghani
      September 16, 2022 at 12:50 AM PDT

      US stocks haven’t seen the worst of this year’s declines yet against the backdrop of scorching inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.

      The “inflation shock ain’t over” and an earnings recession will likely drive stocks to news lows, strategist Michael Hartnett said in a note. Although the bank said US equity funds posted their biggest inflows in more than a month in the week to Sept. 14, stock markets have been under pressure again since Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected consumer price report fueled the S&P 500’s biggest one-day drop since June 2020.

      His analysis of past bear markets also shows average peak-to-trough declines of about 37% for the S&P 500 over 289 days. That suggests the current bear market, which the benchmark index confirmed in June, will end in October with the gauge at 3,020 points — 23% below current levels, the strategist said.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/bofa-sees-new-lows-for-us-stocks-as-inflation-shock-ain-t-over

    5. Fortune
      Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller warns there is a “high probability” the stock market will be “flat” for an entire decade
      Will Daniel
      Thu, September 15, 2022 at 2:00 PM·4 min read

      After a hotter-than-expected inflation reading spooked investors on Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average sank over 1,200 points in the stock market’s worst showing since June 2020.

      That same day, Stanley Druckenmiller, one of Wall Street’s most respected minds, argued that the pain won’t be temporary—and that stocks face an entire decade of sideways trading as the global economy goes through a tectonic shift.

      “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” he said in an interview with Alex Karp, CEO of software and A.I. firm Palantir.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/legendary-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-warns-210012567.html

      1. Strategies
        Need Your Money Now? The Markets Aren’t Helping.
        The rout in the stock and bond markets has been especially rough on people paying for college, retirement or a new home. Our columnist has some advice.
        By Jeff Sommer
        Jeff Sommer is the author of Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.
        Sept. 16, 2022
        Updated 4:43 p.m. ET

        The stock market has been painful if you have been looking at it closely.

        So don’t look. Set up your investments, then take a deep breath.

        After that, what should you do? In a word: nothing. Get on with your life.

        I’ve been suggesting this approach for quite a while, and follow a modified version of it myself. I can’t ignore the markets entirely. My work compels me to study them.

        But after years of practice I am able to separate work from my personal investments, which are mainly in low-cost, diversified index funds. I’m adding to my holdings, even in this nasty market, and intend to continue until I need to draw on the money.
        …
        https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/business/stock-market-investing-college.html

    7. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US stocks record biggest weekly loss in months as Fed meeting looms
      Sentiment on Wall Street sours as FedEx shares dive 21% after it reports drop in shipping volumes
      A FedEx vehicle in Manhattan, New York
      FedEx released preliminary quarterly financial results that missed forecasts. It also warned of deteriorating ‘macroeconomic trends’ in the US and abroad
      Adam Samson and Ian Johnston in London and Kate Duguid in New York 2 hours ago

      Wall Street stocks recorded the biggest weekly drop in months after a profit warning from economic bellwether FedEx jolted investors who are already on edge over a looming interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting.

      The blue-chip S&P 500 index fell 0.7 per cent on Friday, bringing weekly losses to 4.8 per cent, the worst performance since mid-June. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9 per cent on the day for a 5.4 per cent weekly drop, also its worst week since June.

      Stocks have been on the back foot since data published on Tuesday showed US consumer prices rose unexpectedly in August, in spite of a fall in petrol prices. The increase in the inflation rate triggered a dramatic sell-off as traders fretted that the Fed may begin to more forcefully raise rates to tame prices when it meets next week.

      The Bank of England and Bank of Japan are also due to make monetary policy decisions next week, which could inject further volatility into markets.

      Friday’s stock market moves came as shares in FedEx fell 21 per cent, a record one-day drop. This followed the group’s disclosure late on Thursday that it would close offices, freeze hiring and park aircraft in response to a decline in package shipping volumes.

      The US company, regarded as a rough proxy for the economy because of its central role in global commerce, released preliminary quarterly financial results that missed ’ forecasts and withdrew its fiscal year guidance as it warned of deteriorating “macroeconomic trends” in the US and abroad.

      The challenges for stock markets are a sign of how “the underlying conditions have deteriorated quite sharply over the last couple of months”, said Roger Lee, head of UK equity strategy at Investec. “In the first half, companies were able to get price rises through and pass on to customers. We may be getting to the point where that’s getting more difficult”.

      With attention turning their attention to the Fed’s policy decision on September 21, trading in federal-funds futures on Friday suggested that markets now expect the US central bank to boost its main interest rate to 4.4 per cent by March. That is up from forecasts of about 4 per cent at the start of this week.

      The benchmark rate, near zero at the beginning of 2022, is now in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 per cent. Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on economic growth and some economists expect the Fed may struggle to avoid tipping the world’s biggest economy into recession.
      …

    8. DOW 30 -0.45%
      S&P 500 -0.72%
      NASDAQ 100 -0.55%

      Bonds
      A part of the Treasury yield curve has just seen its steepest inversion since 2000 as bond markets flash recession warnings
      Brian Evans
      Sep 15, 2022, 8:10 AM
      An inverted yield curve typically means investors expect a recession.
      Getty Images
      – The two-year Treasury yield blew past the 30-year yield Thursday as inflation data causes a further inversion.
      – The spread between the two bonds marks the steepest inversion in nearly 22 years.
      – An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of a coming recession.

      The yield on the two-year Treasury bond pushed further past the 30-year yield to mark the deepest inversion between the two notes in 22 years on Thursday, as fresh inflation data, bets on rate hikes, and recession fears widen the gap.

      The two-year yield on Thursday jumped six basis points, to 3.85%. That’s 38 basis points above the 30-year Treasury yield of about 3.47%, and is the most inverted the two bonds have been since 2000. The yield on the two-year note surged Tuesday following August inflation data that showed price increases slowed, but not as much as markets had hoped for.

      An inverted yield curve is a closely watched indicator of a potential recession in the near- to medium-term. The inversion essentially flips conventional thinking that long term debt carries more risk than short-term obligations. The current difference between the two-year and 30-year yields is the widest gap among US benchmark rates.

      The Federal Reserve is expected to take strong steps to address inflation at its next policy meeting, with Wall Street widely expecting a 75 basis point hike following this week’s release of August inflation data. Some have said the central bank could push rates as high as 9% to truly tame inflation.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/recession-outlook-yield-curve-inversion-signals-steep-downturn-inflation-news-2022-9

    1. I have colleagues in Ireland. They obey the government. They were thrilled last year when a small window opened and they could go to the pub. One of them got beat up by vibrants, who beat him so severely that he spend days in a hospital. He blamed himself.

      It’s hard to believe that the Irish fought tooth and nail for their independence and are now handing their country over to non Irish,

      1. The only thing the Irish have is their hate for the Brits. (go ahead, ask one, even one that’s been in the US for 150 years). It was two groups of socialists fighting another socialist group (brits) for part of Ireland. Then, the Brits being exhausted, the Irish won and proceeded to give up the same guns that won the war.

        But yes, as you say, they are government cucks. They blindly follow and obey even as their government imports over a million (population of Ireland is only about 5 million) “refugees” so it won’t even be Ireland soon.

    2. Cuck wearing a cuck mask.

      The higher your Reddit “karma score” the more likely you are in your basement playing video games or re-arranging your Star Wars collectable action figures, while your wife is upstairs getting plowed by her MAGA Chad bull.

      “They’re not sending their best”

    3. It’s Disco Sucks all over again. 🙂

      First comment…

      END TIMES IS HERE

      “HANG THE MOTHER FAWKER…HE WEARS A MASK…NICE MASK FAGGOT…I GUESS HE DIDNT GET THE MEMO THAT YOU DONT NEED OR NEVER NEEDED TO WEAR MASK…WHAT A FAGGOT I SWEAR…JUST KILL THE MOTHER FAWKER”

  39. “1.3 Million Jobs Were Result Of Double-Counting This Year, Heritage Economist Says”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/13-million-jobs-were-result-double-counting-year-heritage-economist-says

    (snip)

    “The non-farm payrolls report contains the results of two surveys: the establishment survey and the household survey. The former measures employment, hours, and earnings through a sample of businesses. The latter gauges ‘the labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population with demographic detail’ using a sample of households.

    “The key difference between these two surveys is the methodology, since the establishment survey allows for double-counting. In other words, it will identify multiple jobholders for every position, meaning that a person with two jobs will count for two jobs. But the household survey will only consider an individual with two jobs as having one job.”

  40. Image file for Jeff:

    https://ibb.co/wgcNsTd

    Taken above treeline looking at some other, higher mountains in the distance. There were dogs on the mountain, below treeline.

    Leaving Denver and visiting rural Colorado is like going on vacation to what we used to think of as the United States.

    1. “Dell Bigtree calls for arrest of Rachel Maddow, others”

      and then…

      “404 – PAGE NOT FOUND”

      Now I’ll never get to sleep.

  42. What a surprise! (not) …

    “US Army’s Recruiting Crisis Worsens As Test Scores Drop, Disqualifications Rates Surge”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-armys-recruiting-crisis-worsens-test-scores-drop-disqualifications-rates-surge

    (snip snip)

    The US Army has a major recruiting problem and can’t find enough young people who meet the basic requirements to enlist, according to Army Times.

    Lt. Gen. Maria Gervais, second in command for Army Training and Doctrine Command, sounded off Thursday about the troubling developments. She highlighted disqualification rates for potential recruits jumped from 30-40% (pre-Covid) to a whopping 70% this year due to obesity, low test scores, and/or drug use.

    Gervais pointed out the service has experienced a “nosedive” in recruits since July 2021. She explained Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) scores were 10% lower during the virus pandemic in 2020-21. That figure has since increased to 13% for the most recent high school graduating class.

    Perhaps America’s youth was dumbed down during Covid with at-home schooling via daily video conferences. The latest Education Department data confirm reading and math scores plummeted. Maybe those kids were playing too many video games or trading ‘meme stocks’ or posting useless videos on TikTok during the pandemic instead of opening a book and learning something valuable.

    Besides failing to meet academic standards, obesity was another driver of higher disqualification rates. Also, increasing drug use among youngsters didn’t help.

    The challenges of today’s youth put combat preparedness in question as liberal war hawks are determined to spark World War III in Ukraine and or in the Taiwan Strait.

    Gen. Joseph Martin, vice chief of staff for the Army, warned in July that the recruitment goal for 2022 could be slashed by a quarter. He said the total size of the Army (including active and reserve components) will decrease by 10,000 troops this year and between 14,000 and 21,000 in 2023.

    Perhaps lowering the standards to meet targets is a question the service should ponder. Even though the quality is more important than quantity, in tumultuous periods like today, where the world is shifting from a unipolar world to a multipolar world, conflicts tend to ignite — and the US — one who has overseen the unipolar world for decades — will fight ‘tooth and nail’ to maintain the status quo.

    At least the youth have one thing going for them: obsession with violent video games has desensitized an entire generation to all sorts of violence where war might not be a big shock.

    Remember, the service’s recruitment crisis has been an ongoing issue but has worsened in the last few years. We pointed out it’s “another signal of declining support for the federal government and its institutions.”

    Maybe because the military has gotten too ‘woke’? You know the saying: “go woke, go broke” — this can also happen to empires…

    The shrinking pool of eligible youth due to obesity, low test scores, or drug use should be a national security threat to US health and security.

    1. The military veterans I met in the offices I did IT work were all on various percentages of disability, which added to their income. It has become a hustle, IMHO, as most of those were not in the dangerous MOS fields.

    2. She highlighted disqualification rates for potential recruits jumped from 30-40% (pre-Covid) to a whopping 70% this year due to obesity

      What happened to “healthy at any weight”?

      70% are now rejected? That’s what happens when you tell the recruits you need the most, the ones who are fit, drug free and intelligent, who happen to be “deplorables” that you will make their lives pure hell in the armed forces, promoting incompetents over them.

      What good does it do to have a huge fleet if you lack the personnel to crew and deploy them?

      Our enemies have to be salivating over this.

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion
      The Long View
      Market reset delivers constant shock therapy
      Big sell-off in equities is sign of things to come as central banks pull support
      $100 bills and the New York Stock Exchange
      In addition to lurches lower in stocks, there are huge swings in the dollar and in the typically more sober government bond market
      Katie Martin yesterday

      It was, as one economist put it, “a brutal day across risky markets” when on September 15 the S&P 500 shed a massive 4.7 per cent — its biggest one-day decline in seven years. “An ugly day in stocks,” he added. “Locusts” were picking off victims across global stocks, another market watcher agreed.

      The verdict on the front page of this newspaper was blunt. “Day of reckoning on Wall Street”, the headline declared, complete with a large picture of despondent-looking bankers in Canary Wharf.

      If you think something feels slightly off here, you are right. That September 15 shock to markets was in 2008, not 2022. Those despondent bankers were standing outside Lehman Brothers’ European headquarters and Bank of America had just swallowed Merrill Lynch as the global financial system frayed at the seams.

      Fast forward almost exactly 14 years and history is not repeating, but it is certainly rhyming.

      This time around, on September 13 the S&P 500 benchmark index of US stocks dropped by more than 4 per cent — a fall on a scale not seen since the Covid crisis began more than two years ago. The Nasdaq Composite fared even worse, losing 5.2 per cent. Bizarre as it seems, the post-Covid recovery phase of 2022 is churning out moments in the market as ugly as in the week Lehman Brothers told shocked staff “it’s over”. Even more bizarre: somehow, we have become accustomed to the blows.

      Perhaps that is because the investors have suffered a fainting fit every time this year that US inflation data has turned out to be surprisingly strong. This week was no exception. US consumer price inflation rocked in at 8.3 per cent for August, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. That is a little better than the 8.5 per cent figure for July. The problem is that analysts and investors had been expecting a tamer 8.1 per cent pace, particularly given the rapid pullback in petrol prices. The rate also picked up 0.1 per cent in August from the previous month.

      Yet again, this has torpedoed the long wished-for pivot from the US Federal Reserve — the mythical moment when it decides to dial down the interest rate rises that have been pummeling asset prices this year. Yet again, the hopeful pundits are disappointed and the beatings will continue until morale improves.

      Traders now see a reasonable chance that the Fed will lift rates by a blockbuster full percentage point at next week’s meeting. Anything less than three-quarters of a point would be a huge surprise.
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      US stocks record biggest weekly loss in months as Fed meeting looms
      Sentiment on Wall Street sours as FedEx shares dive 21% after it reports drop in shipping volumes
      A FedEx vehicle in Manhattan, New York
      FedEx released preliminary quarterly financial results that missed forecasts. It also warned of deteriorating ‘macroeconomic trends’ in the US and abroad
      Adam Samson and Ian Johnston in London and Kate Duguid in New York yesterday

      Wall Street stocks recorded the biggest weekly drop in months after a profit warning from economic bellwether FedEx jolted investors who are already on edge over a looming interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting.

      The blue-chip S&P 500 index fell 0.7 per cent on Friday, bringing weekly losses to 4.8 per cent, the worst performance since mid-June. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9 per cent on the day for a 5.4 per cent weekly drop, also its worst week since June.

      Stocks have been on the back foot since data published on Tuesday showed US consumer prices rose unexpectedly in August, in spite of a fall in petrol prices. The increase in the inflation rate triggered a dramatic sell-off as traders fretted that the Fed may begin to more forcefully raise rates to tame prices when it meets next week.

      The Bank of England and Bank of Japan are also due to make monetary policy decisions next week, which could inject further volatility into markets.

      Friday’s stock market moves came as shares in FedEx fell 21 per cent, a record one-day drop. This followed the group’s disclosure late on Thursday that it would close offices, freeze hiring and park aircraft in response to a decline in package shipping volumes.

      The US company, regarded as a rough proxy for the economy because of its central role in global commerce, released preliminary quarterly financial results that missed ’ forecasts and withdrew its fiscal year guidance as it warned of deteriorating “macroeconomic trends” in the US and abroad.

      The challenges for stock markets are a sign of how “the underlying conditions have deteriorated quite sharply over the last couple of months”, said Roger Lee, head of UK equity strategy at Investec. “In the first half, companies were able to get price rises through and pass on to customers. We may be getting to the point where that’s getting more difficult”.

      With attention turning their attention to the Fed’s policy decision on September 21, trading in federal-funds futures on Friday suggested that markets now expect the US central bank to boost its main interest rate to 4.4 per cent by March. That is up from forecasts of about 4 per cent at the start of this week.

      The benchmark rate, near zero at the beginning of 2022, is now in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 per cent. Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on economic growth and some economists expect the Fed may struggle to avoid tipping the world’s biggest economy into recession.

      In addition to the inflation data published on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims data on Thursday highlighted the persistent strength of the US labour market, prompting further concern.

      Analysts at BNP Paribas noted that the August inflation data opened the door to the possibility of a 1 percentage point rate rise when Fed policymakers meet next week, an acceleration from two consecutive 0.75 percentage point increases. The consensus expectation for next week remains a 0.75 percentage point increase, however.

      “No matter which one the Fed goes with, this week’s takeaway is clear — there is more work to be done and expectations . . . should be adjusted accordingly,” wrote John Briggs, global head of economics at NatWest.
      …

  44. Is it possible that housing is going to be just fine, even though Wall Street is CR8Ring nonstop?

    I think not.

    1. Stock Market Today: FedEx Warning Amplifies Wall Street Jitters
      The delivery giant said its fiscal Q1 results will come in lower than expected and withdrew its full-year guidance as demand slows.
      by: Karee Venema
      September 16, 2022
      FedEx truck delivering packages in New York City
      Getty Images

      Stocks capped off a terrible week with another slide as a warning from one of Wall Street’s bellwether firm’s stoked concern about the U.S. economy.

      After Thursday’s close, delivery giant FedEx (FDX, -21.4%) – whose financial results are often seen as a read on broader economic conditions – issued preliminary fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue figures that were well below estimates. The company cited a recent acceleration in “global volume softness,” and specifically pointed to “macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe.” FDX also withdrew its outlook for the full fiscal year, and said it is initiating several cost-cutting measures to offset the effects of lowered demand, including deferring staff hiring, closing 90 FedEx office locations and ending Sunday operations for several FedEx Ground locations. The company is slated on the earnings calendar to report its full quarterly results after next Thursday’s close.
      …
      https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/605232/stock-market-today-091622-fedex-warning-amplifies-wall-street-jitters

    1. Business Leaders
      Published September 16, 2022 4:49pm EDT
      Billionaire Ray Dalio warns stocks could plunge 20% if interest rates rise to 4.5%
      Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio: Interest rates will have to rise ‘a lot’ to fight inflation
      By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
      Billionaire investor Ray Dalio gives his takes on the latest world news and provides expert analysis on the state of the economy on ‘Cavuto: Coast to Coast.’ video
      Inflation will come down but remain ‘very high’: Billionaire investor Ray Dalio

      Billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, warned that stocks could tumble even lower this year after the hotter-than-expected August inflation data rattled markets this week.

      “It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the Bridgewater Associates founder wrote in a LinkedIn article on Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”

      The S&P 500 has already plunged more than 6% this week as concerns over sky-high inflation, rising interest rates and a darkening economic outlook continue to weigh on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, is down more than 1,800 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has tumbled about 1.7%.

      If interest rates climb to 4.5%, it would trigger a plunge of about 20% in equity prices based on the present value discount effect, Dalio said. In addition, there would be another 10% negative impact from declining incomes.
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/billionaire-ray-dalio-warns-stocks-could-plunge-interest-rates-rise

    2. Economy & Policy
      The Economy
      As Inflation Persists, Interest Rates Will Stay High. Forget a Fed Pivot.
      By Lisa Beilfuss
      Sept. 16, 2022 5:59 pm ET

      The latest consumer-inflation data helped firm up a new consensus around tougher interest-rate policy this year before the Federal Reserve flips in 2023. But Fed watchers might still be underestimating the inflation problem; they should bet on a rate plateau over a pivot.

      When the Labor Department released its August consumer price index, it left little doubt that inflation is broad, sticky, and demand-driven. Consider that the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s median CPI, which drops outliers to measure underlying inflation, rose a record 6.7% from its reading a year earlier. As Michael Ashton of Enduring Investments notes, about 70% of the components in the CPI increased at an annual pace greater than 6% last month. In the decade before the pandemic, that share was 10% or less.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/interest-rates-will-rise-and-stay-high-not-fall-as-inflation-digs-in-51663365565

    3. Forecast for Fed Terminal Rate Hits New High, Shaking Stocks and Bonds
      By Reuters
      Sept. 16, 2022
      U.S. News & World Report
      Reuters
      A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., August 8, 2022.
      By Davide Barbuscia

      NEW YORK (Reuters) – Expectations of how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise rates in its fight against inflation hit a fresh high this week, exacerbating pressures on stocks and bonds.

      As investors await another jumbo rate increase from the U.S. central bank at its Sept. 20-21 meeting, higher-than-expected inflation numbers have ramped up bets on the so-called terminal rate, which now stand at 4.45%, Refinitiv data showed.

      That is more than 200 basis points higher than the current benchmark overnight interest rate and compares with a projected peak of about 3.7% just a month ago.

      Higher U.S. interest rates are potentially unwelcome for stocks, which rallied over the summer, while bond yields, which move inversely to prices, retreated from their highs on hopes that the Fed would ease the pace of rate hikes.

      Those hopes were dashed this week when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for August showed inflation rose 8.3% on an annualised basis, more than economists’ forecasts of 8.1%.

      “I think the Fed is going to put another 150 basis points to 200 basis points of rate hikes into the market, but it’s the speed with which they do it which is the debate at this point,” Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at DoubleLine, said.

      Expectations of a more hawkish Fed have also boosted real yields, which show how much an investor can make on an annualised basis holding a U.S. government bond and dull the allure of riskier assets when they rise.

      Yields on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) – known as real yields because they strip out projected inflation – climbed to 1.03% on Friday, their highest since January 2019. Since the beginning of August, real yields have gone up by about 100 bps.

      Meanwhile benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have climbed about 8 basis points this week to 3.443%, flirting with a new 11-year high if they go above the 3.495% level they hit in June. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday those yields could end the year at 3.75%.
      …
      https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-09-16/forecast-for-fed-terminal-rate-hits-new-high-shaking-stocks-and-bonds

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