If We Compare Pricing Now To The Wild Bidding War Sales During The Unicorn Years Then Yes, It Would Appear That Prices Are Reduced
A weekend topic starting with Ag Web. “As mortgage rates climb to 20-year highs, near 8%, current high-interest rates are eating away at the housing market. This year is currently on pace to see the fewest home sales since 2008. However, farmland sales aren’t witnessing the same sticker shock. In North Dakota, Pifer’s Auctioneers says it just set a new land sale record in the state. Jim Rothermich, vice president of Iowa Appraisal, calls this a bell ringer for the state of North Dakota. Looking at Iowa, he says land market conditions remain steady and strong, but aren’t as hot as they were a year ago. ‘Since peaking around May 2022, the market has declined a small percentage and is now pretty much in equilibrium, or flat,’ Rothermich explains. ‘Sales north of $20,000 per acre still happen but nothing like they did in 2022. I do not think we’ll see a double-digit decrease, but there is potential for a single-digit decline.’ When comparing 2023 to the hot markets of 2022, he says it’s clear land values have cooled off.”
Bisnow South Florida. “The developer of an unfinished 48-unit Coconut Grove condo project has handed over the deed to the site after its lender pushed for foreclosure. The Miami market and Coconut Grove neighborhood saw condo prices leap in recent years, driven by an influx of new arrivals during the pandemic that has waned but not abated. Coconut Grove’s average condo sale price in the third quarter was $1.9M, up 39.2% from a year earlier, according to data from Douglas Elliman. ‘We had a market up to 2019, and then we had a completely different market after the pandemic,’ Enilda Rubin, a realtor with The Keyes Co. who has worked in Coconut Grove for 25 years, told Bisnow in May. ‘I sold a townhouse in 2019 for $625K, and the same townhouse today is $1M, $2M, $3M.'”
From Fortune. “When Jacob Fuerst and his wife decided to leave North Carolina for a job opportunity in New Hampshire last year, they knew it would be hard to find something that would compare to the 3,000 square-foot home they were leaving behind. But they were confident—after all, they had already bought and sold three homes during their life together. But this time is different, he says. ‘I’ve worked my entire life, I’m not asking for the moon,’ Fuerst tells Fortune. ‘I should be able to afford a house that is big enough for my family.'”
“Home prices in New Hampshire are up more than 50% since the onset of the pandemic and mortgage rates have more than doubled, so when the family decided to relocate to the state, Fuerst found they were seemingly locked out of the market. This time, the $460,000 sale of his North Carolina home wasn’t enough to buy up north. He and his wife offered close to $700,000 on a place before pulling out when the inspection found the roof would require an additional $70,000 in repairs. After trying to negotiate with the homeowners, he says he was told: ‘if you won’t buy it in this condition, somebody else will.’ In this market, that isn’t hyperbole.”
Flagstaff Business News in Arizona. “Confirmation bias and click bait can be a dangerous combination. The disingenuous reporting of economic and housing data has been extremely common this last year, especially on mainstream media. Comparing limited data points and comparing only to the ‘Unicorn Years’ of 2020-2022 are often the culprit of these click bait headlines. I use the term ‘Unicorn Years’ to not confuse the housing phenomena with other issues and real pain caused by the global pandemic. Indeed, what happened to housing during those two years was truly an anomaly caused by variables never before seen in our housing history.”
“You’ve likely seen this on countless headlines and I’m going to be brief here. During the Unicorn Years there was a foreclosure moratorium as part of the CARES Act, making foreclosure illegal under broad circumstances. Naturally, you are going to see a rise in foreclosure activity once that moratorium is over. However, big picture below shows general foreclosure activity is actually trending downward and nowhere near levels of the 2006-2008 real estate bubble.”
“Admittedly, this one is a bit more difficult to understand primarily due to the wide fluctuations in prices in the last 36 months. Simply put, if we compare pricing now to the height of the highest, wild bidding war sales during the Unicorn Years of 2% mortgage rates then yes, it would appear that prices are reduced and significantly reduced in some cases. We have also seen a confusing mix of competing bids but also price reductions in the 2023 market showing that sellers and their real estate professionals have had a difficult time finding ‘true market value.’ The reconciliation here is not unlike the previous two issues in that the bigger picture and broader data on general market value does show a solid foundation of housing values at this time. Charts show national trends from three sources all agreeing on general trend that markets will end the year not with the wild 2022 predictions of 20, 30, 40% slashes, but most markets, including Flagstaff, will end the year in low single-digit appreciation.”
Next City on Arizona. “In June 2018, a fence went up around Arrowhead Mobile Home Park in Flagstaff, Arizona. By that time, any remaining mobile homes were empty. Some of them were still adorned with the faces of their past residents, murals painted by local artists as a final protest. The residents themselves had lost their years-long fight to remain in their homes. The former Arrowhead residents, like a growing number of people across the country, don’t need to be told that housing is being auctioned off at a global scale.”
“Many people have come to very different conclusions about the current situation. They may see the rise in short-term rentals, second homes, and general growth as part of a larger pattern. They don’t dispute the rampant construction of luxury-priced housing or the notion that housing has become dominated by people who see it as nothing more than a way to turn a profit. But rather than asking how we can change any of this, they ask why they should care. Or more pointedly, if they have the money, why shouldn’t they go out and buy a second home in one of these places right now? In tourism towns, it’s often said half-jokingly that people ‘either have a second home or a second job.’ It seems we’re all in that town now.”
“We are taught to think in binaries. The market is booming or busting. The world is made up of haves and have-nots. We are profiting or losing. But COVID further revealed the cracks in this simplistic thinking, and nowhere was this clearer than the housing market. Of course, real estate companies would have appreciated the boom, until the number of people buying houses dropped in 2022. And those selling their homes benefited immensely, just as long as they could find somewhere else to live. For the vast majority looking to remain in a place, however, faced with rising rents or home prices or property taxes, losing the identity they’d long-attached to their home, there is no question of what to call it. This is a bust.”
“They face a dwindling and increasingly desperate set of choices. In order to cover the ballooning property tax, a retired couple on a fixed income forgo badly needed medical check-ups and prescriptions. Unable to afford housing elsewhere, a young mother stays in an abusive relationship. Seeking a way out of expensive and unstable rentals in a dangerous neighborhood, a couple with two kids puts half their monthly income toward a mortgage. The pattern repeats across the country. Those who benefit from the boom become more skilled at obscuring their role in the concurrent bust.”
The Bellingham Herald in Washington. “The development company responsible for constructing three unfinished multi-million dollar residential condo buildings along Bellingham’s waterfront has defaulted on its contract, according to Bellingham Port Commissioner Michael Shepard. Harcourt Developments, the company originally selected in 2015 as the lead developer for about 19 acres of the Waterfront District, will likely lose the opportunity for future development there, Shepard indicated. The residential units in the buildings, which range in price from $550,000 to more than $3 million, were originally expected to begin housing people by the end of this year.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “As the insolvency and bankruptcy process of Ontario builder StateView Homes stretches into its sixth month a class-action lawsuit is calling into question a loophole in Ontario law that leaves some new home purchase deposits unprotected. Currently, if you sign a preconstruction contract to buy a freehold home in Ontario any cash deposits made as part of that deal are not required to be protected by a legal trust and can be spent at will by the developer. But if you buy a preconstruction condominium, those same kinds of deposits are held in trust and cannot be spent.”
“As more developers face a challenge finishing projects amid high costs of labour and credit, the freehold-condo distinction could make a serious difference for new home buyers. In the case of 765 buyers who gave $77-million in deposits to the insolvent StateView Homes, it’s already a big problem. Under insolvency and bankruptcy law, the freehold status of the townhomes means the depositors are considered unsecured creditors who will only get paid after secured lenders. That has spurred legal action by two parties representing the interests of the buyers. Sotos LLP has filed a class-action lawsuit challenging StateView’s contracts and Tarion Home Warranty has filed a separate motion to retroactively establish depositor trust for insolvency proceedings.”
“‘We’re making a public interest argument,’ said Denna Pourmonazah Jalili, an associate with Sotos. ‘This issue is coming up more and more. The real estate boom has incentivized a lot of greediness and overzealousness.'”
The Local. “Property prices have fallen almost 14 percent from their peak last spring, with the price of a detached home falling 15 percent and bostadsrätt homes (a Swedish type of condominium) falling 10 percent. But SBAB predicts that prices will keep going down. ‘We haven’t seen the full effect of interest rate hikes on the housing market yet. We think that prices will fall 20 percent from the peak [in spring last year] before things turn upwards again,’ said SBAB’s chief economist Robert Boije.”
From Sport Bible. “More than a decade on from when Xi first outlined his dream, China’s football fortunes have fallen. Poor investment, an alleged high-level corruption scandal and a three-year global pandemic have left the country’s football aspirations in tatters. Another theory, that is somewhat aligned with the first, is that though China may still have the appetite for a Messi theme park, it can’t afford it. Chinese property giant The Evergrande Group collapsed in 2021, sparking the country’s worst property market crisis on record. The upheaval at the company worsened in September this year after its chairman was placed under police surveillance and current and former executives were detained.”
“Why does this matter? Well, beyond having an impact on China’s entire financial system, many people bought property from Evergrande before building work began. Since the collapse homes have been left unfinished, suppliers allegedly haven’t been paid and some of the millions of Chinese people who put their savings in property-linked hedge funds face the prospect of not getting their money back. Essentially China is on the brink of a credit crunch. As China’s second-largest development firm, it is also possible the development of the theme park was directly through Evergrande, or another real estate company on the brink, Country Garden. Essentially, it’s a bad time to build a house in China, let alone a big, obnoxious amusement park. “
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‘We had a market up to 2019, and then we had a completely different market after the pandemic…I sold a townhouse in 2019 for $625K, and the same townhouse today is $1M, $2M, $3M’
The globalist scum media wants to act like this never happened. Well it did happen. Old shacks going up 70% or more in 2 or 3 years was the disaster. Jerry really screwed up and there’s only one way out and it’s down.
‘‘Sales north of $20,000 per acre still happen but nothing like they did in 2022. I do not think we’ll see a double-digit decrease, but there is potential for a single-digit decline.’ When comparing 2023 to the hot markets of 2022, he says it’s clear land values have cooled off’
Even farmland. In a way it’s kinda funny. Unicorn years. Why don’t we call it mouth hankey years, or global house arrest years? Or central bank money volcano years?
North Dakota. Yield growing corn is on the order of 100 bushels per acre. That is $500 worth of corn but profit is likely a lot less than $100. $20K in the bank would yield $1,000 without the blood, sweat and tears.
What a spinner on this:
Mortgage rates are dropping fast after a shock jobs report set off a series of dominoes on Wall Street—The housing market can thank Detroit’s striking auto workers
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/mortgage-rates-dropping-fast-shock-220111915.html
‘The development company responsible for constructing three unfinished multi-million dollar residential condo buildings along Bellingham’s waterfront has defaulted on its contract’
Many years ago I posted an article about proposed luxury condos in Bellingham that drew howls of laughter from posters who knew about this sh$thole. Now it’s luxury airboxes everywhere.
‘I’ve worked my entire life, I’m not asking for the moon,’ Fuerst tells Fortune. ‘I should be able to afford a house that is big enough for my family.’”
You don’t need a 3000 square foot house for you family unless you have about 8 kids, which I doubt.
When my Dad died and we went to sell our family house I was surprised to see the square footage was 1108. There were 4 of us and I never remember there being a space issue.
Expectations/entitlements have gotten out of control.
Expectations/entitlements have gotten out of control.
I set off a firestorm on YouTube replying to this comment: “In 2002 I was warning that THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE and that was after reading an article in the Sun Sentinel saying the “average” cost of a home in Broward was $400,000. WE NEED the entire housing market to collapse so bad until the REAL affordable $100k homes return back to the market. People earning $15-20/hr should be able to afford a single family home and not be forced to rent.”
My reply: “If you aspire to own a home, do more with your life than unskilled minimum wage labor.”
Such an elitist comment is kind of odd coming from someone who is also stuck renting. In a rational world, plywood boxes wouldn’t wildly increase in value as they age.
Since when is an unskilled minimum wage job supposed to support a single family home? Minimum wage in CA is $15.50/hr. Come April 2024, minimum wage for fast food workers in CA will be $20/hr.
$20/hr.
That’s $40K. Maybe more with some OT and a partner.
That is quite enough to buy a $100,000 house, which we would have plenty of if they weren’t currently an object of speculative mania.
In a rational world, plywood boxes wouldn’t wildly increase in value as they age.
Agreed, but here we are.
What a great lesson to teach: don’t strive in life, you’re entitled to nice things like a single family home.
I recall as a kid that most of our neighbors had very ordinary jobs: postman, produce clerk at the supermarket, stuff like that. There were a few skilled people: machinists, mechanics, etc. There was one guy who was an engineer.
So this is the first home I remember: 1423 Concord Ave, Fullerton, CA. My father was a fairly new optometrist and my mother worked in animal research at Harbor UCLA Medical Center.
After 40+ years, my father is retiring in a 3bd/2.5ba house and my mother died in a 2bd/2ba house. And I’m supposed to believe that an unskilled minimum wage laborer is entitled to a single family home?
Not saying anyone is entitled to a house. Just saying that five to six decades ago you didn’t need a masters in electrical engineering to afford a modest house.
Housing five to six decades ago were a lot different than today. My mother grew up in a 980 sq three bedroom slab house with 5 people…no basement, small kitchen with room for a small table, tiny living room, one bathroom, three small bedrooms. Near zero insulation, old electrical, cheap siding. No cable or internet wiring, one phone in the kitchen, one tv, one car garage. The cost to build homes today is astronomically higher even before you get to the luxury fixtures. Just the basics are magnitudes higher in cost. Unfortunately, you and I aren’t going back to cheapie 50’s Levittown type homes, but realistically, our new working classes might, as these 10,000,000 new immimrants (soon to be 25,000,000 when they have 2.5 kids) are going to need places to live, and cheap 3/1 slab housing in the exburbs might be the best that they can afford.
My parents’ 1963 house had insulation, central heating, a kitchen that would be recognizable today, with a dishwasher, range, fridge/freezer combo. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths. Carpeting. Two car garage, etc. It was about $23K, which was above the national average. And as I mentioned, most of the neighbors had modest, though not minimum wage, jobs
I’m sure that by today’s standards it was simple and spartan, but it wasn’t a Levittown house either.
I’m sure that by today’s standards it was simple and spartan, but it wasn’t a Levittown house either.
I graduated from high school in 1963 in a relatively small to medium size central Florida city. The house you described would have been called a rich person’s home.
Central a/c?? Few and far between.
“In a rational world, plywood boxes wouldn’t wildly increase in value as they age.”
In 1967, Israel captured the Golan and the West Bank, but they couldn’t afford to hold it. In 1968, LBJ set the Great Society in motion. In 1971, Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold. In 1972, the Clean Water Act was passed without funding. In 1973, Yom Kippur war led to the Arab Oil Embargo, gas station lines and immediate inflation of everything energy related.
There’s six years worth of incredible deficit spending that continues to this day, and it has been paid for with money printing and masked with asset inflation. Today, our youth barely afford college, cars or shelter. Yet here we are butting heads with Russia, China and once again Israel and the Middle-East.
You will own nothing.
You will own nothing, and like it.
There, fixed it for ya.
You will own nothing, you will eat bugs, and you will be happy.
Klaus will eat wagyu beef, and Klaus will be happy.
Will squatters moving into vacant houses become the new normal?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12709979/Florida-squatter-arrested-breaking-vacation-home.html
The wall of lies is crumbling.
https://www.news.com.au/world/britains-covid-inquiry-exposes-again-the-danger-of-any-country-electing-a-lightweight/news-story/cf2be42e41e2fa5fae7d82c980670635
Prolly nothing.
https://www.siouxlandproud.com/news/local-news/bank-in-sac-city-declared-insolvent-after-examiners-identified-significant-loan-losses/
More bank failures on deck.
(The sweet little darlin’s …)
Children destroy couple’s $1.5m home with chainsaws and axes in monthlong ‘evil’ vandalism spree
https://www.insider.com/children-destroy-familys-15-million-home-with-chainsaws-and-axes-2023-11
Youths wrecked a couple’s $1.5 million home in an ‘evil’ vandalism spree, Island Echo reported.
The children used axes, chainsaws, and bleach to wreck a six-bed UK property, a court heard.
The homeowner’s wedding dress was destroyed, along with paintings, antiques, and a stained-glass window.
Seven children destroyed a couple’s six-bedroom home using chainsaws, axes, and sledgehammers to smash their antiques and even ruin the victim’s wedding dress, a UK court heard last month.
The group took the tools from the owners’ garage and embarked on their monthlong vandalism spree in May last year, causing £300,000 ($371,000) in damages to the £1.2 million ($1.5 million) property on the Isle of Wight while the homeowners were away, local news outlet Island Echo reported.
The youths, aged as young as 11 years old, destroyed paintings, a stained-glass window, a chandelier, and a grandfather clock and had sprayed bleach, oil paint, creosote, and ketchup throughout the house, according to Island Echo’s report.
Water had gushed across the bathroom after taps were ripped off, and the group had fashioned a “slip and slide” on the floor. Mahogany window sills had been carved into, and graffiti was daubed on the walls, according to the report.
The court also heard that they had used the couple’s tools to chop down a palm tree and had attempted to set a tractor mower on fire, according to Isle of Wight County Press.
“It is mindless and looks like a whirlwind has been through the property,” the homeowner Joanne Pittard said in a victim statement read to the court, Island Echo reported. “We are horrified at the evil vandalism and attempts at arson at our property. It will take a long time to recover financially and emotionally from this event.”
An estate agent said the damage to the property had devalued the house by between £250,000 and £300,000 ($309,375 and $371,000) — and that was after the couple had spent more than £35,000 ($42,300) on repairs, The Telegraph reported.
The seven youths, who were aged between 11 and 15 at the time and are now all aged below 16, can’t be named for legal reasons. They admitted in court they had caused criminal damage to the property and expressed regret and remorse for their actions, Island Echo reported.
Six were ordered to pay £1,500, or just over $1,800, in compensation and given a 12-month referral order. In this UK community sentence, young offenders work with a community panel and agree on a contract to address their behavior, Island Echo reported. The seventh teenager is due for sentencing later this month.
Speaking to the teens in court, Isle of Wight Magistrates Chairman Keith Jones said: “Your behavior has been appalling and an absolute disgrace to all of you,” Island Echo reported.
(The kids caused between $309,375 and $371,000 in damages and were ordered to pay $1,800 in compensation. That’ll learn ’em.)
Kids will be kids….what ya gonna do?
What if they “identify” as vandals? Wouldn’t punishing them be stifling their freedom of expression?
All of the former Western democracies need to do a comprehensive purge of criminal coddlers from their judiciaries, then start imposing Singapore-style swift, ruthless punishments on both youth offenders and their irresponsible parents, or in most cases, parent. This mindless vandalism and law-breaking doesn’t change until society decides it’s no longer going to put up with it.
Some of these super-predators can’t be fixed. It’s fixed in their genes. Generations of the dumbest, most violent people breeding created what we have now. We kind of solved the problem during the late 90’s-2020, by imprisoning many of them (but clearly not enough) which brought us to the criminal degenerate George Floyd whose OD set off a violent crime spree throughout the United States.
The Insolvency Phase Has Begun For Canadian Real Estate
Steve Saretsky
28 minutes ago
Canada is in a recession. Canadian real estate developers are barely holding on. Consumer confidence has sunk to the lowest levels since the 1980s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn1VQpfbNOg
13 minutes.
(This article has nothing to do with housing, but I am posting it anyway because I think it is important. So there!)
Putin Says Western Nations Are ‘Changing Tune’ On Defeating Russia
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-says-western-nations-are-changing-tune-defeating-russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin in fresh remarks before a national policy advisory body has said that Russia has humbled the West and remains undefeated, after over a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine war, and after the NATO’s military and intel involvement has only deepened.
Putin asserted that Western nations are slowing changing their perspective: “They are changing their tune now, saying different things,” the Russian leader told a conference of the Civic Chamber on Friday, according to a translation in state-funded media.
He held this out as encouragement that Russia must continue on its path of strengthening all aspects of society, especially on the economic and military levels. “They (EU nations) excluded our energy. So what? What is the result? Our GDP will grow [up to] 3% this year, and the leading European economies are shrinking,” he said in the speech.
“They suffer; they have real problems,” he pointed out, with the caveat: “This doesn’t mean that we should behave aggressively. It means we must be sovereign in every sense of the word.”
The Biden administration has been open since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine about wishing to “weaken” Russia and to ultimately inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia.
On Thursday, the US had unveiled a new round of anti-Moscow sanctions, which as Reuters describes “targeted Russia’s future energy capabilities, sanctions evasion and a suicide drone that has been a menace to Ukrainian troops and equipment, among others, in sanctions on hundreds of people and entities.”
The Kremlin has dismissed the move, with foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova saying, “This is a continuation of the policy of inflicting as they call it – a strategic defeat on us.” She then emphasized, “They will have to wait in vain forever before that happens.”
Meanwhile, the Atlantic Council in a new position paper is warning NATO allies that “Putin will win unless the West finally commits to Ukrainian victory”:
These factors mean there is currently little incentive for Putin to end the war. Indeed, any outcome other than an unambiguous Russian military victory would likely lead to uncomfortable questions being asked regarding the sacrifices Russians have made since the start of the invasion. From Putin’s point of view, it is far better to maintain a long-term conflict in Ukraine with the prospect of increasingly favorable circumstances.
The hawks are worried that if more isn’t urgently done to support Kiev, including sending more advanced weaponry and billions more in defense aid, Putin will have his victory. But what’s so far been very clear is that Ukraine’s offensive has been stopped and pushed back no matter the many billions spent.
Russia is winning.
The concept of “Western Liberal Democracy” is a farce.
Plus Israel now gets first dibs on the goodies. Zelensky should keep his bags packed as he will eventually have to bug out to one of his Mediterranean villas, or possibly go all the way to the US, to live out his exile.
“first dibs on the goodies”
Robbing U.S. taxpayers blind since 1948.
Speaker Johnson’s first statements and actions since taking the gavel prove he is AMERICA LAST.
(This just in …)
Game Over: US, European Officials Quietly Nudge Ukraine To Seek Peace
SATURDAY, NOV 04, 2023 – 09:50 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/game-over-us-european-officials-quietly-nudge-ukraine-seek-peace
With the world’s attention squarely fixed on the Israel-Gaza war — while baseless hope for a Ukrainian expulsion of the Russian army has evaporated — US and European officials have started quietly conferring with Ukraine on potential concessions that could bring the war to an end, NBC News was first to report Friday evening.
These discussions aren’t about a new counteroffensive — they’re about what concessions Ukraine could live with pursuant to a peace agreement. Some of the conversations, which officials describe as delicate, happened during an October meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an affiliation of more than 50 governments siding with Ukraine.
In eyebrow-raising comments to the The Economist this week, Ukraine’s top commander admitted there will be no breakthrough and the battlefield situation is in a stalemate. The New York Times characterized his remarks as “the first time a top Ukrainian commander said the fighting had reached an impasse.”
In September, the Times itself splashed cold water on anyone who still believed Ukraine had any hope of pushing the Russian army out of eastern and southeastern Ukraine, much less Crimea. Its detailed analysis found that, in the wake of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, “Russia now controls nearly 200 square miles more territory in Ukraine compared with the start of the year.”
(A map appears here …)
Russia’s territorial gains are close to matching the goals President Vladimir Putin outlined at the start of what he calls a “special military operation.” He said Russia sought to secure Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (provinces), which he recognized as republics shortly before the invasion. Russian forces now control nearly all of those areas, which are together called the Donbas.
Russia also controls most of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, giving Russia a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014 after a Western-aided overthrow of a democratically elected president and the installation of an anti-Russia government in Kiev. Crimea and the eastern provinces of Ukraine have heavily ethnic-Russian populations.
The front lines have moved little in recent months. In anticipation of Ukraine’s highly-hyped 2023 counteroffensive, Russia was content to install formidable defensive fortifications and allow the Ukrainian army to degrade itself and achieve nothing.
In its match-up with a far larger country, Ukraine’s ability to refresh its military ranks is vanishing fast. “Manpower is at the top of the administration’s concerns right now,” an official told NBC. The West can keep sending them weapons, “but if they don’t have competent forces to use them it doesn’t do a lot of good.” Even the most optimistic western warmongers must acknowledge the coming winter guarantees Ukraine won’t accomplish anything for months.
In the wake of Ukraine’s costly and futile counteroffensive, Washington’s proxy war with Russia is facing strong headwinds at home:
The war between Hamas and Israel has diverted public attention and sapped the war state’s ability to propagandize voters. Indeed, Biden’s Oval Office address appealing for aid for Ukraine and Israel was originally planned to focus solely on Ukraine, NBC reports.
The US public’s pro-Ukraine fervor has cooled: A new Gallup poll found 41% say the US is doing too much for Ukraine — a big leap from the 29% who said that in June. Many Americans think that money should be used to improve conditions at home.
A growing number of congressional Republicans have put away their rubber stamp for Ukraine aid, and have thus far thwarted Biden’s request for $61 billion in additional funding for the war. Biden’s ploy of a joint funding request that combines controversial Ukraine aid with Israel aid is in grave jeopardy, as House Republicans demand separate votes.
Washington’s blank-check support for Israel’s destruction of Gaza is further straining an already Ukraine-sapped American arsenal. Tens of thousands of artillery shells that had been earmarked for Ukraine are being redirected to the IDF. Even before Hamas attacked Israel, an increasingly severe shortage of conventional shells for the artillery-heavy war in Ukraine led Biden to give Zelensky toxic, depleted uranium shells, stirring an international outcry.
As for what it would take for Zelensky to surrender the international spotlight and agree to peace, we’re guessing a big deposit to a Swiss bank account would do just fine. However, officials are pondering some type of Western security guarantee that stops short of NATO membership. The specter of Ukraine become a NATO member played heavily in Moscow’s motivation for invading. The war has been a crisp illustration of Richard Sakwa’s brilliant assertion that “NATO exists to manage the risks created by its existence.”
Just weeks after Russia’s 2022 invasion, Russia and Ukraine had reportedly tentatively agreed to a peace deal in which Russia would withdraw to an extent that it would still control portions of the Donbas, in exchange for Ukraine forswearing its NATO ambitions while having security deals with several states. Via a visit from then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Western war machine, eager for a proxy war, seems to have pressured Zelensky to break off the talks. Months of misery ensued, with only the military-industrial complex and Ukraine’s aid-scraping bureaucrats better off for it.
Nobody outside the Beltway supports Ukraine. Nobody.
Zelensky and his skank wife need to get captured alive by the Russians, let them do what they want with them.
They will bug out in the middle of the night, and whoever takes over will sue the Russians for peace.
Nobody outside the Beltway supports Ukraine.
Not according to the flags I see around town.
The rumor mill is saying the we might be getting ready to throw the Ukes under the bus.
I suspect that the “peace deal” (conditional surrender) will cede occupied eastern Ukraine to Russia and Zelensky will resign and leave for points unknown. And of course our ruling junta will declare the war a success, because we “stopped Russia and Europe is now safe”.
Via @DonMiami on Twitter:
California’s total tech sector employment is undergoing a ‘Dotcom bust’ 2.0 as we speak.
One could argue the labor markets in San Jose MSA (below) & San Francisco MSA are already in recession, having triggered the Sahm Rule.
California’s total tech secto
Most of which was little more than smoke and mirrors. I’ve worked in such firms. They have grand plans and at the beginning everything looks promising. Then the schedules slip, and when a prototype is finally cobbled together it doesn’t live up to the hype, and customers are nowhere to be found. People start leaving on their own, and then the roof suddenly caves in and it’s over.
Hey, i worked for one of those companies in 2000/2001.
anyone remember F*ckedcompanies.com?
Now that the Fed is done raising rates, is it a given that the Santa Claus rally is on?
Investor’s Business Daily
BREAKING: Berkshire Cash Pile Hits Record As Earnings Jump
Investor’s Business Daily
Dow Jones Futures: After Big Market Rally, What To Do; Warren Buffett Still Selling Stocks
ED CARSON 12:30 PM ET 11/04/2023
Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) reported a big jump in operating profit Saturday.
The stock market rally had its best week of 2023, as Treasury yields tumbled on generally weak economic data and Fed chief Jerome Powell’s comments. The Nasdaq staged a follow-through day on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones providing further confirmation on Thursday.
A growing number of stocks flashed buy signals. It’s a time for investors to be adding exposure, but do so carefully. The market rally still faces several key resistance points.
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https://www.investors.com/market-trend/dow-jones-futures-after-big-market-rally-warren-buffett-berkshire-nvidia-in-focus/
Financial Times
Berkshire Hathaway Inc
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sells stocks as cash pile swells to record levels
Conglomerate offloads more than $5bn worth of US and international shares
Fund managers follow Warren Buffett’s investment decisions closely
Eric Platt in New York 3 hours ago
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile surged to a record $157bn in a quarter in which chief executive Warren Buffett continued to sell stakes in publicly traded companies, as the so-called Oracle of Omaha found a dearth of appealing investments.
The company sold more than $5bn worth of US and foreign stocks in the third quarter, according to results released on Saturday. The sales lifted Berkshire’s divestments of listed shares to nearly $40bn over the past year.
Investors must wait a further two weeks before they can see how Buffett adjusted Berkshire’s portfolio. But Saturday’s results filing indicated the company sold more than 12mn Chevron shares before it bought Hess for $53bn in an all-stock deal last month.
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Expect more debt issuance from U.S. Treasury in weeks ahead
Like it or not, a wave of Treasury short-term debt issuance is coming
The Treasury will have to issue more debt eventually. The question after this week is when?
Daniel Kuhn
Nov 3, 2023 2:14 PM EDT
Like managing a household budget, the U.S. Treasury will eventually have to pay the bills. In this sneak peek from the Action Alerts PLUS investing club, team member Bob Lang breaks down what to expect from the Treasury department in the weeks ahead.
J.D. DURKIN: All right. Let’s talk Treasuries, Bob, while I have you. Buried in a very busy week for the Fed was the decision from the Treasury to slow the pace of its long-term debt sales. We talked about the difference between the short term and the long term. Bob, we’ve talked a lot about how important Treasury yields are in this particular market. What is the significance of this move? And what do you think it could mean moving forward?
BOB LANG: J.D. , at some point, the debt issuance is going to be large. I don’t when that’s going to be. It could be next month. It could be next year. Who knows? And I mean very large. Basically, they have to roll over maturities. And they have funding to pay for short term obligations for this week, next week, next month. They pay military salaries. They pay Social Security. Congress, they pay their own salaries and so forth and a lot of other bills that come due in a short term basis. So they have to roll over the maturities that come in.
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https://www.thestreet.com/video/wave-of-treasury-short-term-debt-issuance-coming
“Like managing a household budget, the U.S. Treasury will eventually have to pay the bills”
How much new money has been printed in the last three and a half years since CCP Flu?
The following is a list of nations / empires prior to the U.S. that have had a $33 trillion national debt:
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End of list.
About 100 years ago the Ottoman Empire owed more than 10 x its income. Then it ceased to exist, like a California homeowner.
Amounts to $40 Billion in today’s money.
I’m hoping when the US collapses, the red states surrounding Illinois join southern Illinois to invade Chicago and create a red entity from basically Western Kansas to West Virginia, from Northern Wisconsin to Louisiana. Chicago would collapse nearly immediately if invaded by red states, because blue state reinforcements would have to travel thorugh a lot of red states to get there..