A report from the Wall Street Journal. "Mark Calabria, who heads the Federal Housing Finance…
This Post Has 12 Comments
From the first 4:41 video:
Is the Housing Market unstable? Sep 22, 2022 Is the Housing Market showing some sign of stabilizing?
With the interest rate jumping from 3% to now 6.25%, the purchasing power of buyers is significantly limited. It almost felt like buyers disappeared from the market overnight. No more flurry of showings, no more multiple offers, and definitely minimal bidding wars.
Now that we are a few months into the shift….are we seeing signs of stabilizing or the market is still free
falling?
As always before I start, please like my Facebook page or subscribe to my YouTube page if you find the content of these emails useful. Well..guess what… we got some interesting statistics in August. For the first time since December of last year, the housing inventory stopped growing. As you can see from the table…and these are homes within a 10-mile radius of our office in Diamond Bar. The inventory basically remain flat in August, up only 1.5% compare to July.
Since March, we were seeing more and more people wanting to sell their homes, and fewer and fewer people wanting to buy. Why did you ask?
More people were selling because they were expecting the housing price to soften and they want to capitalize on the historic COVID Equity Gain. Less people want to buy because interest rates increasing rapidly pricing people out of the market. The result? Inventory stacking up quickly, shifting the market away from a seller’s market towards and balanced market. The price went down.
The median sales price as of September 1 was very close to the price of September 1st last year. The equity we earned in the last 12 months was pretty much wiped out. So why are fewer people selling their houses now? 2 Reasons…
#1. Seasonal cycle….every year comes September, and we see about 25-30% fewer homes listed for sale.
Schools are back and holiday seasons are around the corner so people shifted their attention to things other than real estate.
#2. The Frenzy is over… when it comes to selling real estate….a seller is either have to sell or wants to sell. Most of those who want to sell are selling to capitalize on the high prices. Everyone was expecting the softening of the housing market and they all started selling in March, April, and June. A lot of the want to sell are sold. What’s left on the market are have to sell. They are not motivated by price but
motivated by a change in lifestyle.
With the inventory no longer increasing, that brings a little bit of stability on the supply side of things. Price is ultimately determined by supply AND demand. With supple stabilizing, the price will also slow down at a slower pace.
What do I think will happen to supply moving forward?
Outside of seasonal changes, I don’t see the number of inventory increasing rapidly like we had seen earlier part of this year. Most of the homeowners probably have a really low-interest rate. It just makes the decision to sell a lot more difficult when you have to give up a 3% interest rate, especially since the interest rate is 6% today.
It’s going to be a tug of war between low supply vs low demand! We will see fewer people buying and selling. Price will fluctuate up and down depending on supply and demand. Homes will take 60-90 days to sell on average.
The second 12:32 video:
How to Get a Deal When Buying a House in 2022 in Arizona
Premiered Sep 22, 2022 There are deals to be had in this real estate market. If you are considering buying a home in Arizona, here are a few tips to consider, to get the best deal possible.
00:00 – 1:17 Intro
1:17 – 3:40 Our Current Market
3:41 – 4:45 What to look for and leverage
4:46 – 5:37 Using Seller Concessions
5:38 – Things to look for
10:47 – 11:15 The changing real estate market in Arizona
11:16 – 12:33 How My Clients Won
The third 11:25 video:
August 2022 Housing Market Update – San Antonio – Bexar County – Comal County
Sep 22, 2022 There is no doubt that the market is starting to shift. With inflations, rising costs, and higher interest rates, the national news would have you believe that all is lost. That’s just not reality for San Antonio and the surrounding areas. Are things shifting? yes. Should we pay attention? Yes! Is the sky falling? No! Check out my video to get the low down on the local market.
The fourth 13 minute video:
Las Vegas, Nevada SEPTEMBER 2022 Housing Market Update
Sep 22, 2022 Here is your monthly Las Vegas and Henderson, Nevada Housing Market Update for September 2022.
The last 13 minute video:
SF Bay 6 counties Sept RE Market: price continue drop, inventory down. San Jose Sales improved.
Sep 22, 2022 Sept 2022 Report: Housing market update for San Francisco Bay area 6 Counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo and Santa Clara) + Sacramento County. Each County Median Price, Home Sales, current Inventories, Days on Market. Housing Sentiment index: is it good time to buy? Will interest rate fall? Will price rise in next 12 months? What is the housing supply and demand in San Jose today? How much do you need to pay in order to get your offer accepted now?
I believe the first video is about this place:
Diamond Bar is a city in eastern Los Angeles County, California, United States.[7] As of the 2010 census it had a population of 55,544,[8] and in 2019 the population was estimated to be 55,720.[9] It is named after the “diamond over a bar” branding iron registered in 1918 by ranch owner Frederick E. Lewis. The city features a public Los Angeles County golf course.
Located at the junction of the Pomona and Orange freeways, Diamond Bar is primarily residential with shopping centers interspersed throughout the city. It is surrounded by the communities of Brea, Walnut, Chino Hills, Rowland Heights, Pomona, and City of Industry.[10]
Northern Diamond Bar is a part of the Pomona Unified School District.[11] Southern Diamond Bar is a part of the Walnut Valley Unified School District.[12] The city is also served by International Polytechnic High School.[13] It also has the first hydrogen fueling station to be built in Southern California,[14] near the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) building. Moreover, according to the 2010 United States Census, Diamond Bar has a median household income at one of the top earning percentiles in the country at $88,422, with 5.9% of the population living below the federal poverty line.[15]
makes the decision to sell a lot more difficult when you have to give up a 3% interest rate
Welcome to 1970.
The decision to sell will be made for, not so much by, many. Life changes are relentless; retirement, unemployment, marriage, divorce, death & etc.
Life changes are relentless
They sure are!
President Biden shocked viewers of his Friday speech to teachers when he recognized an audience member and told the crowd, “She was 12, I was 30.”
Biden lit up social media with the confounding and seemingly inappropriate aside. He did not say what he did when he was 30 and the woman was a preteen.
“You gotta say hi to me,” Biden said mid-speech at the National Education Association headquarters in DC. “We go back a long way. She was 12, I was 30. But anyway, this woman helped me get an awful lot done.”
The audience of teachers and union members laughed and cheered at the bawdy remark.
The White House did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for clarification on what the president meant. Biden’s historical habit of touching and smelling women and girls in public — often yielding on-camera grimaces from recipients — earned him the Republican nickname “Creepy Joe,” though he has rarely committed such actions in public since apologizing in 2019 to women who said he made them uncomfortable with unwanted physical contact.
Okay HBBers, I need help in following the logic that drives this statement:
“If half of vehicles in the western United States are electric, the team estimates it would take over 5.4 gigawatts of energy storage—equivalent to five large nuclear power reactors—to charge the cars. However, if people charged their electric cars at work instead of home, the electric demand is expected to go down to 4.2 gigawatts.”
I agree that the article leaves some unanswered questions. It goes back and forth between cost and grid load, and doesn’t explain the different load numbers
Years ago (too many years!) I had a intern job with a power company, doing distribution modeling. At least two things drive the management of a grid: plant efficiency (i.e. cost per megawatt at each plant or generator) and distribution efficiency (some power is lost in the distribution lines).
Costs are lower at night because the overall load drops, and you can reduce the load on the least efficient plants. But the question is why does nighttime (home) charging use more power. The answer may be in the distribution loss. I don’t know, but perhaps distribution is less efficient to homes (smaller lines) than to concentrated business areas.
Municipal and Industrial systems usually rely on water, and moving water from one reservoir to another consumes incredible electrical power, and that task is frequently done in the evening hours when the M&I load is reduced and the air temperature is lower resulting in less resistance (heat) losses. Most of California’s energy is consumed moving water, the largest volume from the Stockton Delta area, southward, up over the Tehachapi Mountain Range to the Los Angeles area.
There are several problems. First, the young lady writing the article has a boy’s name. Secondly, she has a hyphenated last name. To top it off, she has a degree in Psychology.
My take is that electricity production is assumed to be all wind and solar in the magical future, so that night time loads have to come from storage. Storage is inefficient.
Gigawatts is a measure of electric power not energy! A certain amount of energy (gigawatt-hours) could be supplied over a longer period of time at a lower power rate (gigawatts). However, I would be suspicious of any conclusions drawn from a study that makes such a serious elementary mistake.
(CAUTION: What follows is not housing related.)
A very informative article about energy renewables …
From the first 4:41 video:
Is the Housing Market unstable? Sep 22, 2022 Is the Housing Market showing some sign of stabilizing?
With the interest rate jumping from 3% to now 6.25%, the purchasing power of buyers is significantly limited. It almost felt like buyers disappeared from the market overnight. No more flurry of showings, no more multiple offers, and definitely minimal bidding wars.
Now that we are a few months into the shift….are we seeing signs of stabilizing or the market is still free
falling?
As always before I start, please like my Facebook page or subscribe to my YouTube page if you find the content of these emails useful. Well..guess what… we got some interesting statistics in August. For the first time since December of last year, the housing inventory stopped growing. As you can see from the table…and these are homes within a 10-mile radius of our office in Diamond Bar. The inventory basically remain flat in August, up only 1.5% compare to July.
Since March, we were seeing more and more people wanting to sell their homes, and fewer and fewer people wanting to buy. Why did you ask?
More people were selling because they were expecting the housing price to soften and they want to capitalize on the historic COVID Equity Gain. Less people want to buy because interest rates increasing rapidly pricing people out of the market. The result? Inventory stacking up quickly, shifting the market away from a seller’s market towards and balanced market. The price went down.
The median sales price as of September 1 was very close to the price of September 1st last year. The equity we earned in the last 12 months was pretty much wiped out. So why are fewer people selling their houses now? 2 Reasons…
#1. Seasonal cycle….every year comes September, and we see about 25-30% fewer homes listed for sale.
Schools are back and holiday seasons are around the corner so people shifted their attention to things other than real estate.
#2. The Frenzy is over… when it comes to selling real estate….a seller is either have to sell or wants to sell. Most of those who want to sell are selling to capitalize on the high prices. Everyone was expecting the softening of the housing market and they all started selling in March, April, and June. A lot of the want to sell are sold. What’s left on the market are have to sell. They are not motivated by price but
motivated by a change in lifestyle.
With the inventory no longer increasing, that brings a little bit of stability on the supply side of things. Price is ultimately determined by supply AND demand. With supple stabilizing, the price will also slow down at a slower pace.
What do I think will happen to supply moving forward?
Outside of seasonal changes, I don’t see the number of inventory increasing rapidly like we had seen earlier part of this year. Most of the homeowners probably have a really low-interest rate. It just makes the decision to sell a lot more difficult when you have to give up a 3% interest rate, especially since the interest rate is 6% today.
It’s going to be a tug of war between low supply vs low demand! We will see fewer people buying and selling. Price will fluctuate up and down depending on supply and demand. Homes will take 60-90 days to sell on average.
The second 12:32 video:
How to Get a Deal When Buying a House in 2022 in Arizona
Premiered Sep 22, 2022 There are deals to be had in this real estate market. If you are considering buying a home in Arizona, here are a few tips to consider, to get the best deal possible.
00:00 – 1:17 Intro
1:17 – 3:40 Our Current Market
3:41 – 4:45 What to look for and leverage
4:46 – 5:37 Using Seller Concessions
5:38 – Things to look for
10:47 – 11:15 The changing real estate market in Arizona
11:16 – 12:33 How My Clients Won
The third 11:25 video:
August 2022 Housing Market Update – San Antonio – Bexar County – Comal County
Sep 22, 2022 There is no doubt that the market is starting to shift. With inflations, rising costs, and higher interest rates, the national news would have you believe that all is lost. That’s just not reality for San Antonio and the surrounding areas. Are things shifting? yes. Should we pay attention? Yes! Is the sky falling? No! Check out my video to get the low down on the local market.
The fourth 13 minute video:
Las Vegas, Nevada SEPTEMBER 2022 Housing Market Update
Sep 22, 2022 Here is your monthly Las Vegas and Henderson, Nevada Housing Market Update for September 2022.
The last 13 minute video:
SF Bay 6 counties Sept RE Market: price continue drop, inventory down. San Jose Sales improved.
Sep 22, 2022 Sept 2022 Report: Housing market update for San Francisco Bay area 6 Counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo and Santa Clara) + Sacramento County. Each County Median Price, Home Sales, current Inventories, Days on Market. Housing Sentiment index: is it good time to buy? Will interest rate fall? Will price rise in next 12 months? What is the housing supply and demand in San Jose today? How much do you need to pay in order to get your offer accepted now?
I believe the first video is about this place:
Diamond Bar is a city in eastern Los Angeles County, California, United States.[7] As of the 2010 census it had a population of 55,544,[8] and in 2019 the population was estimated to be 55,720.[9] It is named after the “diamond over a bar” branding iron registered in 1918 by ranch owner Frederick E. Lewis. The city features a public Los Angeles County golf course.
Located at the junction of the Pomona and Orange freeways, Diamond Bar is primarily residential with shopping centers interspersed throughout the city. It is surrounded by the communities of Brea, Walnut, Chino Hills, Rowland Heights, Pomona, and City of Industry.[10]
Northern Diamond Bar is a part of the Pomona Unified School District.[11] Southern Diamond Bar is a part of the Walnut Valley Unified School District.[12] The city is also served by International Polytechnic High School.[13] It also has the first hydrogen fueling station to be built in Southern California,[14] near the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) building. Moreover, according to the 2010 United States Census, Diamond Bar has a median household income at one of the top earning percentiles in the country at $88,422, with 5.9% of the population living below the federal poverty line.[15]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Bar,_California
makes the decision to sell a lot more difficult when you have to give up a 3% interest rate
Welcome to 1970.
The decision to sell will be made for, not so much by, many. Life changes are relentless; retirement, unemployment, marriage, divorce, death & etc.
Life changes are relentless
They sure are!
President Biden shocked viewers of his Friday speech to teachers when he recognized an audience member and told the crowd, “She was 12, I was 30.”
Biden lit up social media with the confounding and seemingly inappropriate aside. He did not say what he did when he was 30 and the woman was a preteen.
“You gotta say hi to me,” Biden said mid-speech at the National Education Association headquarters in DC. “We go back a long way. She was 12, I was 30. But anyway, this woman helped me get an awful lot done.”
The audience of teachers and union members laughed and cheered at the bawdy remark.
The White House did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for clarification on what the president meant. Biden’s historical habit of touching and smelling women and girls in public — often yielding on-camera grimaces from recipients — earned him the Republican nickname “Creepy Joe,” though he has rarely committed such actions in public since apologizing in 2019 to women who said he made them uncomfortable with unwanted physical contact.
https://nypost.com/2022/09/23/biden-leaves-viewers-stunned-in-teachers-speech-she-was-12-i-was-30/?dicbo=v2-ff17c57000154290caed198baa4d81bb
Okay HBBers, I need help in following the logic that drives this statement:
“If half of vehicles in the western United States are electric, the team estimates it would take over 5.4 gigawatts of energy storage—equivalent to five large nuclear power reactors—to charge the cars. However, if people charged their electric cars at work instead of home, the electric demand is expected to go down to 4.2 gigawatts.”
Source:
https://studyfinds.org/electric-cars-charged-at-night-grid-unstable/
I agree that the article leaves some unanswered questions. It goes back and forth between cost and grid load, and doesn’t explain the different load numbers
Years ago (too many years!) I had a intern job with a power company, doing distribution modeling. At least two things drive the management of a grid: plant efficiency (i.e. cost per megawatt at each plant or generator) and distribution efficiency (some power is lost in the distribution lines).
Costs are lower at night because the overall load drops, and you can reduce the load on the least efficient plants. But the question is why does nighttime (home) charging use more power. The answer may be in the distribution loss. I don’t know, but perhaps distribution is less efficient to homes (smaller lines) than to concentrated business areas.
Municipal and Industrial systems usually rely on water, and moving water from one reservoir to another consumes incredible electrical power, and that task is frequently done in the evening hours when the M&I load is reduced and the air temperature is lower resulting in less resistance (heat) losses. Most of California’s energy is consumed moving water, the largest volume from the Stockton Delta area, southward, up over the Tehachapi Mountain Range to the Los Angeles area.
There are several problems. First, the young lady writing the article has a boy’s name. Secondly, she has a hyphenated last name. To top it off, she has a degree in Psychology.
My take is that electricity production is assumed to be all wind and solar in the magical future, so that night time loads have to come from storage. Storage is inefficient.
Gigawatts is a measure of electric power not energy! A certain amount of energy (gigawatt-hours) could be supplied over a longer period of time at a lower power rate (gigawatts). However, I would be suspicious of any conclusions drawn from a study that makes such a serious elementary mistake.
(CAUTION: What follows is not housing related.)
A very informative article about energy renewables …
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/09/20/ramping-up-renewables-cant-provide-enough-heat-energy-in-winter/
San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 31% YOY As US Housing Market Mudslides Into Abyss
https://www.movoto.com/ca/94109/market-trends/
As one Bay area broker explained, “Our regional forecast projects a 55%-75% price decline from these levels. We’re well on our way.”