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Offers Being Made Now Feel Much More Grounded In Reality

A report from Market Watch. “The tide has turned, and buyers are now backing out of deals in the Sun Belt. Once pandemic boomtowns, 15.2% of homes in cities in the Sun Belt that went under contract in August fell through, or roughly 64,000 homes nationwide saw deals dropped, Redfin said. And ‘some buyers may also be backing out of deals because they’re waiting to see if home prices fall,’ the company added. City Percentage of pending sales that fell out of contract: Jacksonville, Fla. 26.1% Las Vegas, Nev. 23% Atlanta, Ga. 22.6% Orlando, Fla. 21.9% Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 21.7% Phoenix, Ariz. 21.6% Tampa, Fla. 21.5% Fort Worth, Tex. 21.5% San Antonio, Tex. 21.1% Houston, Tex. 20.6%.”

From CNBC. “There also can be affordability issues causing buyers to walk away, especially in new construction, said Al Bingham, a mortgage loan officer with Momentum Loans in Sandy, Utah. Buyers ‘are willing to walk away even if they can qualify because the house payments have gone up,’ Bingham said. ‘They just cannot afford it.’ ‘The market shifted really fast,’ said Stephen Rinaldi, president of Rinaldi Group, a mortgage broker.. ‘It went from people offering $40,000 above asking price, waiving inspections, promising their first-born … to not so much, because rates increased so fast.'”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Redfin found that 21.5% of pending transactions in the Fort Worth area and 19.7% in the Dallas area fell through in August. During last year’s red-hot buying frenzy, buyers found they had to waive certain contract contingencies to compete for a home. ‘Now, with buyers having more of an upper hand, they may have more power to back out. Including inspection, financing and appraisal contingencies in a contract means a buyer can cancel their purchase if there’s an issue with the home, they can’t get a mortgage or the appraisal is different from the agreed-upon amount,’ the report said.”

The Sun Sentinel. “Homebuyers have lost six figures in buying power over the past year, thanks to soaring mortgage rates. It’s the equivalent of about $140,000, RedFin calculates. ‘Some people may have lost the ability to qualify overall. If you were very thin before — which many people were, given where the property values have risen to — you may have been basically pushed out where you can’t qualify for a whole lot,’ said J.C. de Ona, Southeast Florida division president for Centennial Bank. ‘At some point earlier this year, they were perfectly fine qualifying for a house in the area they were looking, but now they can’t.'”

From The Street. “Home prices are falling across the U.S. ‘Home prices have dropped roughly 15% from the January 2022 highs in certain parts of the country,’ said Pacwest Funding chief executive officer Joshua Massieh. ‘In some areas, we have already seen a 20% correction since January.’ Another big issue is new home construction developments are slow to deliver due to supply chain issues.’This is throwing a flood of homes into the market. Home prices have already adjusted to the new level of cost of borrowing, other real estate experts said,’ Massieh added. Take Seattle, Wash., where the residential real estate market has adjusted downward by approximately 20%, since April 2022.”

Montana Right Now. “The housing market in the Gallatin Valley has become an issue in recent years but as the summer heated up, the market began to cool. It seems as though the new developments being built are starting to ease the skyrocketing prices. Looking at single-family homes, around 200 new listings have been posted since July, and when there are more options prices tend to dip. These are the most recent median single-family home prices in the area: Bozeman – $871,500. Belgrade – $558,000. Livingston – $565,000. Three Forks – $560,000. Manhattan – $670,000.”

The Standard Times in Massachusetts. “Prospective homebuyers are keeping real estate professionals busy as they watch and wait in an up-and-down market in Bristol County and across the state. Bob Sullivan, a broker associate with Bay Market Real Estate in Swansea said the housing market has changed in that the sellers he works with aren’t quite used to the fact that their houses aren’t going to sell overnight right now. ‘It’s a very strong market, it’s just not a crazy overnight market,’ he said. ‘I’ve been in this for over 30 years, and I’ve seen it all. When we sign a listing, we usually sign for six months for a reason, and that’s because it’s the average marketing time.'”

The Orange County Register. “Southern California’s homebuying market collapsed this summer to the slowest sales pace on record. And it’s no stunner considering the typical house payment jumped by almost 50% in a year. From June through August, 54,416 residences were sold in the six-county region. That’s 20% below the same period in 2021, and the lowest count since at least 1988. That’s even slower than the bubble-bursting days around the Great Recession, and it’s slower than the often-forgotten deep homebuying slump of the early 1990s. The summer’s house hunters balked as the typical Southern California monthly payment rose by $1,055 in a year — a 47% jump — to $3,318 on the $740,000 median-priced residence.”

The New York Post. “The California home where Bob Saget lived for 20 years is getting a $770,000 price cut after three months on the market without a buyer, The Post has learned. The Los Angeles home now asks $6.99 million.”

From Bisnow New York. “For the leaders of some of the biggest investment vehicles in commercial real estate, the matter of whether the U.S. is on the verge of a recession is no longer a question of if, but when. Certainly, there have been some high-profile cases of office owners handing back keys to lenders. This week, Hines agreed to turn over a downtown Washington, D.C., office building back to its lender after the anchor tenant left. In New York, Blackstone gave up on a Midtown Manhattan office building earlier in the year, and multiple Chicago skyscrapers have suffered the same fate.”

“‘That just goes back to the fundamental issue that it’s extraordinarily expensive to carry the asset now, let alone to pay for the restabilization costs,’ Eastdil Secured Managing Director Grant Frankel said of offices being handed back. ‘So I think you’re gonna see a lot of that.'”

The Edmonton Journal in Canada. “Already activity has fallen substantially from record heights in March after the central bank began hiking rates to slow high inflation. In August, buyers purchased 1,809 homes in the Greater Edmonton Area, down from 2,055 in the same month last year and in 2020 when 1,874 homes sold. While last month’s activity was in line with historical trends, it remains a stark drop from March when a record 3,283 transactions took place. Average prices have also come down from March when the average price reached $415,000. In August, that figure was $377,000.”

“‘The housing market has slowed significantly, but how much is driven by perception among borrowers that ‘rates are rising, so I am going to hold off and see what happens?’ says Edmonton mortgage broker Marc Crossman.”

The Telegraph. “Britain’s richest homebuyers are ditching their traditional London stomping grounds and are decamping to the Home Counties en masse, new research shows. The average price paid across the top 1,000 sales so far this year was £3.4 million – roughly half the £6.3 million spend in 2021. said Dawn Carritt, of Jackson-Stops estate agents. ‘Key to this rebalance has been the void of international buyers during lockdown. Offers that are being made now feel much more grounded in reality than they did this time last year. Buyers do not want to enter the bidding wars we sometimes saw six months ago.'”

The South China Morning Post. “Property developers retreated as rising mortgage costs erode local homebuyers’ purchasing power, while losses in Alibaba and Tencent deepened. The Hang Seng Index has dropped 20 per cent from the recent peak on June 28, while the sell-off has erased US$1.3 trillion in value from the city’s stock market this year.”

From Bloomberg. “A spate of defaults by Chinese borrowers with seemingly impeccable onshore ratings has left antsy investors in the world’s second-largest credit market craving credible research to distinguish good debt from bad. Now a little known startup is seeking to tap that demand and is winning fans. Shenzhen-based Ratingdog has slowly been carving out a name for itself within China’s corporate-bond community by flagging risks well before defaults occur. Some creditors and fund managers, long used to seeing domestic raters assign ‘AAA’ and ‘AA’ levels for even defaulters, are turning to independent research firms such as Ratingdog to navigate a nascent market amid a liquidity crisis.”

“Though there was some buzz around Ratingdog even before the property crisis, it drew the attention of investors in August 2021 when it downgraded Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. and its onshore unit Shanghai Shimao Co. from the equivalent of investment grade to high-yield, highlighting credit risks at what was once one of China’s largest real-estate developers. Almost a year later, Shimao missed payment on a $1 billion dollar note, its first default on a public bond after months of mounting stress, while its onshore unit delayed some domestic payments.”

“Yet to this day, Shanghai Shimao remains an AAA-rated entity — practically the same as China’s sovereign — in the eyes of Chinese firm China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., which declined to comment. Even giants including S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have had their fair share of trouble with regulators and lawmakers. More than a decade ago, they were partly blamed by regulators for fueling a housing bubble by handing out top grades on debt tied to risky mortgages, a market that collapsed in 2007 and sparked the global financial crisis.”

“Rising defaults will lead to deeper changes, said Jim Veneau, head of Asian fixed income at AXA SA. ‘Now China is accumulating a default history, so that history will then be utilized in terms of projecting future default probabilities,’ said Veneau. ‘That will ultimately lead to more credit differentiation.'”

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This Post Has 150 Comments

    1. Are your efforts to import a Ukrainian mail-order bride interfering with your studying to obtain your realtor’s license?

      1. I liked the article where the formerly virtue signalling “refugee host” in the UK was getting sick and tired of her Ukrainian refugee mom who refuses to get a job or contribute to the household budget.

  2. ‘a year later, Shimao missed payment on a $1 billion dollar note, its first default on a public bond after months of mounting stress, while its onshore unit delayed some domestic payments. et to this day, Shanghai Shimao remains an AAA-rated entity — practically the same as China’s sovereign’

    Ahem…

  3. ‘It seems as though the new developments being built are starting to ease the skyrocketing prices. Looking at single-family homes, around 200 new listings have been posted since July, and when there are more options prices tend to dip. These are the most recent median single-family home prices in the area: Bozeman – $871,500. Belgrade – $558,000. Livingston – $565,000. Three Forks – $560,000. Manhattan – $670,000’

    A mild respiratory illness will do that.

    1. I heard they are running out of land up there. Those prices seem very reasonable especially since most of the time you can ski in the morning and freeze to death in the afternoon. What’s not to love?

  4. How’s that globalist Quisling government working out for ya, Aussie sheeple?

    ‘Food or rent’: Choice Aussies forced to make as cost-of-living crisis takes its toll

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/food-or-rent-choice-aussies-forced-to-make-as-costofliving-crisis-takes-its-toll/news-story/5e5550555f3a965bb79459d2c2bdce11

    Struggling Australians are being left to choose between paying for food or rent as the cost-of-living crisis worsens.

    1. Comedy gold. If that’s the reception this corrupt booze hag is getting at a “woke” concert in the Bolshevik bastion of NYC, imagine how they’d greet her in the oligarch-looted heartland.

  6. City Percentage of pending sales that fell out of contract: Jacksonville, Fla. 26.1% Las Vegas, Nev. 23% Atlanta, Ga. 22.6% Orlando, Fla. 21.9% Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 21.7% Phoenix, Ariz. 21.6% Tampa, Fla. 21.5% Fort Worth, Tex. 21.5% San Antonio, Tex. 21.1% Houston, Tex. 20.6%.”

    Is that a lot?

    1. Youth for Biden are getting more brazen, thanks to their political top cover from Soros DAs, “woke” police departments headed and staffed by diversity hires, and Democrat-subverted judicial offices.

      1. They know there won’t be any consequences, No one will be arrested. The store won’t reopen and there will be yammering about “food deserts”

    2. This illustrates the Cloward-Piven strategy working exactly as intended.

      “If I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon” — Barack Hussein Obama

  8. ‘It went from people offering $40,000 above asking price, waiving inspections, promising their first-born …

    I want to see those buyers absolutely destroyed. They deserve nothing less.

  9. Take Seattle, Wash., where the residential real estate market has adjusted downward by approximately 20%, since April 2022.”

    “Adjusted downward”? Can’t bring yourselves to say “dropped,” REIC shills?

  11. Another votes-for-entitlements racket from the Brandon regime, paid for by my taxes and borrowed money. F**k Joe Biden and every POS who voted for him.

    Biden’s plan to end U.S. HUNGER by 2030 – and tackle obesity: Monthly benefits for Americans to buy food and promoting exercise and healthy eating included in ambitious White House project to requires MORE money from Congress

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11254317/Bidens-plan-end-U-S-HUNGER-2030-tackle-obesity.html

    The Biden administration is laying out its plan to meet an ambitious goal of ending hunger in the U.S. by 2030, including expanding monthly benefits that help low-income Americans buy food.

    The administration, in a plan released Tuesday, is also seeking to increase healthy eating and physical activity so that fewer people are afflicted with diabetes, obesity, hypertension and other diet-related diseases.

    It said it would work to expand Medicaid and Medicare access to obesity counseling and nutrition.

    1. This strikes me as a “burning the ships” moment, telling our vassals that they won’t be making any deals with Russia.

      1. This is what happens when our “experts” think electricity comes from the plug in the wall.

        We’re so doomed. Europe is just going to go first.

  13. Maybe you should stop voting for globalist stooges, cash-strapped mothers.

    Cash-strapped mothers reveal they’re already wearing jumpers and dressing gowns at home to try and avoid soaring heating bills – but fear it will be a difficult winter because their houses are ‘freezing’ and it’s not even October

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-11251331/Mothers-reveal-theyre-wearing-jumpers-dressing-gowns-home-avoid-heating-bills.html

    Energy bills are forecast to continue to remain high for some time amid the cost of living crisis, meaning millions of families face difficult decisions to cut back this winter.

    Amid the concern, British mothers have taken to UK parenting forum Mumsnet to discuss an appropriate time to start heating their homes as the days start to get colder.

    Responses ranged from people waiting until temperatures hit below freezing while others have already decided to switch on their radiators and risk higher bills.

  14. Newsmax’s Bolling: ‘Alleged American’ Tucker Carlson Fueling Putin Propaganda

    PAM KEY
    26 Sep 2022

    Newsmax TV host Eric Bolling said Monday on his show “The Balance” that FNC host Tucker Carlson is an “alleged American” over his coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Bolling said, “I’m going to give you a disclaimer, folks, before you come at me all over this, I am very worried about a world war, a nuclear World War III where nobody wins. So when I see a fellow conservative making statements that could incite a world war, a nuclear war. I have to call him out.”

    843 Comments

    Neil Ingalls don newton • an hour ago
    Bolling calls Putin an enemy because he is a psychopath…….oblivious to the fact that the dirty deep state installed its own psychopath here who has declared war on half the country……..Bolling should lay off the warmongering and go back to “investigative” journalism he understands…..taking his own d…kpics.

    TheReporter MSNBCandCNNsucks • 3 hours ago
    Putin wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine if the CIA under Obama hadn’t overthrow the honestly elected Ukraine President in 2014 because he got along with Russia and the US couldn’t set up its bio-labs, and Biden and company couldn’t turn on the cash flow into their pockets. So the CIA corrected this to the Obama Administration demands. The rest is history as it now is playing out.

    hawkeye TheReporter • an hour ago
    I feel that we could have negotiated a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. We never tried. The deep state wanted this war to undermine and get rid of Putin. I pray we don’t find ourselves in a nuclear war.

    https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/09/26/newsmaxs-bolling-alleged-american-tucker-carlson-fueling-putin-propaganda/

    1. The Nordstream pipeline has been sabotaged and some suspect that the US is behind it, to keep western Europe from capitulating to Russia in exchange for more natural gas.

  15. “Britain’s richest homebuyers are ditching their traditional London stomping grounds and are decamping to the Home Counties en masse, new research shows.

    Fleeing the vibrancy unleashed by the hordes of globalist imports targeting anyone who flaunts their wealth.

    1. Perhaps also fleeing the coming civil unrest when London freezes its keister off this winter. Those old country manors were designed to be heated with wood and coal.

    2. You have to get a chuckle out of their new vibrant finance minister. I can’t help but see shades of Zimbabwe. Is that wrong?

      The west seems bent on destroying itself.

  16. Some creditors and fund managers, long used to seeing domestic raters assign ‘AAA’ and ‘AA’ levels for even defaulters, are turning to independent research firms such as Ratingdog to navigate a nascent market amid a liquidity crisis.”

    The Big Short (2015) – FrontPoint Partners confronts Morgan Stanley Risk Assessors and S&P

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwdo17GT6sg

  17. A reader sent these in:

    Mortgage broker in SC. Yes we’re seeing above 7% on conventional. VA and FHA just under 7%.

    https://twitter.com/BrandonRoach86/status/1574510173737082897

    Lance Lambert

    Monthly principal and interest payment on a $600,000 mortgage:
    @ 3.2% = $2,595 (i.e. rate entering 2022)
    @ 6.87% = $3,940 (i.e. today’s average rate)

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1574524992640802818

    Fun fact… for the Fed to make housing “more affordable” at 7.0% vs 2.5%, home prices would need to drop more than 40%.

    https://twitter.com/EconomPic/status/1574456541805039618

    Bullsh$t.

    https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1574573981847396366

    If median home values had risen in line with median wages since the 1970s, the median home value in the US today would be $133,786. 🤯
    (It’s $433,110 today.)

    https://twitter.com/moneywithkatie/status/1574446588889399313

    NYC listings are starting to “flood” the market. What is happening is sellers who have been on the fence have now decided to list. There are a bunch of stupidly priced new listings. Don’t be fooled. The buyer’s market has started.

    https://twitter.com/Cribdilla/status/1574565907229446147

    Funeral of bonds perma bulls to be held at market altar at close of trading today. Join us in prayers.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1574451615947526150

    Cathie Wood

    The yield curve “suggests” that US monetary policy has not been this restrictive since the ‘80s. As measured by the 2-year Treasury yield relative to the 10-year Treasury yield, it has inverted by 50 basis points, the 10-year yield at 3.75% compared to the two-year at 4.25%.

    https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1574513481436520461

    Holy sh*t.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1574360635906805760

    If Fed takes rates to 4.75%, we could see 30y mortgage rates of 8%…

    They peaked at 6.5% in August 2008 just before Lehman collapsed… and 8% would not even be extreme in a historic perspective, especially considering that inflation matches the 1970s…

    Who can afford this?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1574383298452799488

    Virgin Money temporarily withdraws all mortgage products in the UK …

    Credit markets freezing up?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1574435350252232704

    Wen Lehman Brothers 2.0

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1574500040177078273

    Lance Lambert

    Zillow’s *official* 12-month outlook for U.S. home values is +1.2%.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1574398519552638983

    10yr up 20bps, 30ry MBS spreads +10 on the day. 7% mortgage rates likely coming soon! Fed forces rates below 3% March ’21, year and a half later, 7%. Brilliant!

    https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak/status/1574473397328920582

    Let me see if I can help put the current US dollar strength into context that anyone can understand: Every once in a great while, Godzilla would emerge from the sea and lay waste to Tokyo. Today, the USD is Godzilla. And every other asset is Tokyo…

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1574252759917789184

    Liz Ann Sonders

    Lumber futures have plunged back to June 2020 levels.

    https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1574329051887566851

    The most reckless monetary policy in history fueled the everything bull market. Now welcome to the everything bear market. It is all going to burn to the ground; ALL OF IT.

    https://twitter.com/gnoble79/status/1574383694785220608

    There goes the rental market

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1574299117886394368

    Lance Lambert

    Moody’s Analytics once again downgrades its U.S. housing market outlook: Peak-to-trough, U.S. home prices expected to fall 5% to 10%. Peak-to-trough, significantly “overvalued” U.S. housing markets expected to fall 10% to 15%. That outlook assumes NO U.S. recession.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1574388035957006337

    1. “Every once in a great while, Godzilla would emerge from the sea and lay waste to Tokyo. Today, the USD is Godzilla. And every other asset is Tokyo…”

      In fairness to Godzilla, you couldn’t have gone wrong buying US stocks, bonds or real estate from 2009 through 2021.

    2. Peak-to-trough, U.S. home prices expected to fall 5% to 10%.

      Poway’s already fallen 10% in 4 months.

    3. Zillow’s *official* 12-month outlook for U.S. home values is +1.2%.
      The geniuses at Zillow continues to produce comedy gold, unless of course you are a stock holder. I suspect they don’t find anything about Zillow funny.

      2. IIRC BofA put out a “research note” back around June saying prices would still rise 15% this year because muh tight supply forever.

        1. muh tight supply

          When everyone and their mothers bought up housing for passive income and equity gains. 🙄

          1. using free money

            and when money is free, all kinds of stupid “investments” get made.

            Increasing rates is going to expose a lot of malinvestment, not just in housing.

        2. A local UHS posted a couple of months ago on NextDoor, that there would be no crash due to “lack of inventory”. A lot of dimwits agreed with her.

          1. “A local UHS posted a couple of months ago on NextDoor, that there would be no crash due to “lack of inventory”. A lot of dimwits agreed with her.”

            A herd of dimwits around here agreed with her too.;)

            Gotta love all the fraud.

          2. The redditors on the sub, r/real_estate, all agree that housing prices have now turned downward. Three months ago you’d get flamed for suggesting potential losses.

          3. @Mafia
            Gawd, to post something like on NextDoor here (Las Vegas) would be suicide. They all have their houses up for sale, but nothing’s going on 🤣, not a peep.

            Amazed to see that little lion house I was watching did sell at $450K. They probably thought they were getting a bargain since it was listed at $700K. IDK, the view stinks (looks worse IRL.)
            https://files.catbox.moe/thorcx.png

    4. S&P Just hit 2022 lows – comment from Shiff about REIC.


      @PeterSchiff
      The S&P 500 just took out its June low, extending the bear market decline to 25% from Jan.’s record-high. With 30-year mortgage rates set to rise above 7% today, real estate prices will follow #Stock prices lower. Collapsing wealth + soaring debt service costs = financial crisis.

  18. Some local commentary from obsolete barnacle Mike Littwin.

    Colorado Sun — If you’re nostalgic for Colorado’s purple-state days, you should avoid recent polls (9/25/2022):

    “Colorado is a blue state and has been for a while. And it seems to be getting bluer every year, which is how Joe Biden could beat Donald Trump by 13 points in the 2020 election. (Yes, yes, yes. Biden did win the election. Check out the next January 6 hearing, scheduled for Wednesday, if you are still in need of more evidence.)”

    https://coloradosun.com/2022/09/25/littwin-polis-bennet-polls-opinion/

    Number one state in the country for auto theft, because vote like California, become California.

    Come for the weed, stay for the feces and needles.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. Tis funny how colorado turned from conservative red to “purple” to California east almost exactly the time frame that they allowed mail in voting followed by legalizing pot.

      But I’m sure those are unrelated.

      1. I was unimpressed with the State’s “conservatism” when I moved here over 25 years ago, but at least back then it was still affordable. Today TABOR is the state’s sole saving grace. Coloradans, while they like their weed and other lefty things, are stingy and still hate to pay taxes.

        Hizzonor the Guv, in an unashamed attempt to buy votes this November, sent TABOR refunds out early this year. Turns out, tax receipts have been so high that we might get another early TABOR refund. They must really hate sending that money out, though if they hadn’t we would have got it next year when filing our state income tax returns.

  20. “‘Home prices have dropped roughly 15% from the January 2022 highs in certain parts of the country,’ said Pacwest Funding chief executive officer Joshua Massieh. ‘In some areas, we have already seen a 20% correction since January.’”

    Eight months have passed since January. An eight months decline of 20% occurs at an annualized rate of 1-(1-0.20)^(12/8) = 28.4%.

    I don’t recall news of home prices dropping this far so quickly early on in the 2007-2012 retracement. Seems like they may end up going down a lot farther if interest rates keep rising and the long-heralded recession materializes.

    1. Mortgage Rates Now at 20-Year Highs
      By: Matthew Graham
      Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:52 PM

      The most recent historical high water market for mortgage rates was “14 years.” It was broken so many times in September that we officially declared it to be boring last Tuesday. Now, less than a week later, 14-year highs would be more exciting than boring. As of mid-day today, we’re officially at 20 year highs.

      Perhaps it should be “unofficial,” because our daily rate records only go back to the beginning of 2009. We’re relying on weekly survey data for the historic highs and it’s entirely possible that there was a day or two in 2008 where rates were higher than today, but we digress. Comparing current rate levels to various points in the past isn’t really important.

      What’s important is that less than a year, the payment on a new $400k mortgage is up at least $1000/month. Many lenders are now quoting top tier 30yr fixed rates over 7%.
      …
      https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09262022

      1. With the Fed no longer buying MBS, someone has to put real money on the line. Apparently the real level of interest is much higher than we’ve been lead to believe. Funny how that works.

        2. I always wondered who would be buying all this MBS trash at 3%, 4%, 5%, well it turns out nobody was buying it.

          Only the fed.

          Funny how letting the market actually work leads people to take some risk into account.

    1. Median price of $545k (insanity) on what is basically an island connected by two bridges and ferry boat service. Main employer is the U.S. Navy with several shipyards for battleships, carriers and submarines. Lots of easy pink at the EM clubs once those boats sail past the outer buoys! 🙂

  22. WalnutCreek
    Where Housing Market is headed?
    Sep 26, 2022 Here’s a look at the change we’re seeing right now as the market shifts away from the frenzy of last year.
    Today, buyer activity is down, and housing inventory is up. That’s a significant change from where we were last year, which happened quickly. Active listings, or homes available for sale, have increased more than twenty-six percent compared to last year. At the same time, buyer demand – also known as showings – has decreased by almost seventeen percent. We call this an inflection point.

    Over the past two years, we saw a massive amount of demand and not enough homes available for the number of people who wanted to buy them. Today, the market looks very different as those two factors undergo a shift.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTCYM0Ft1p8

    1 minute.

    1. What the One World Order/Great Reset Entities want to do is more extreme and more sinister than any communist or fascist ideology.

      First they think a small group of people who managed to amass wealth and power should decide the fate of 7 billion people.
      That they can decide how technology should be used to capture and enslave the human race for a pre-planned utopia for this anti humanity group. ..

      These Entities have been parasites, looters , fraudsters and gamers off the backs of the populations of the World , and now they seek total control.
      They have corrupted, infiltrated and hijacked Governments of the World to implement and collude with their takeover.
      They view humanity as being useless eaters and that a 90 % reduction in population is the plan.
      Fraudulent narratives of humanity being a enemy to the earth by their carbon imprint, to justify deprivation of resources and mass murder.
      A plan to hack and enslave people , destroy all systems, you will own nothing and eat bugs , with forced vaccines and with no freedoms at all.
      Obviously , the populations of the globe wouldn’t vote for being enslaved, hacked , and murdered by this group, so its being forced by fake emergencies like Climate Change and Pandemics.
      They have corrupted the UN to advance their crimes and fraud against humanity.
      They are willing to cut off food and fuel to deprive humanity and kill humanity. They are willing to poison, kill and injure humanity by fake vaccines.
      They are the greatest existential threat that mankind has ever faced since they have gone into operational mode on the One World Order , Great Reset plan.
      They are so bold, that they even disclose their murderous plans of using technology to enslave mankind, all based on a premise that humanity is a evil that must be eliminated , by them.
      Just look at the agenda or the World they plan, and it offers nothing . That’s probably why they plan to kill a high percentage, and just enslave the rest.
      We are going to have to see what happens when they inflict their next round of disaster on humanity with deprivation of food and fuel. Lockdowns and rationing will no doubt be in their plans, starting in Europe.

  23. Globalist scum media, here publishing an editorial by Rep. Jamie Raskin who is an enemy of the American people.

    New York Times — The Second Amendment Gives No Comfort to Insurrectionists (9/27/2022):

    “Many Republicans in Congress agree with Representative Matt Gaetz that the Second Amendment “is about maintaining within the citizenry the ability to maintain an armed rebellion against the government, if that becomes necessary.”

    This purported right to overthrow the government means that the people must enjoy access to weapons that are wholly unnecessary for hunting or self-defense, such as military-style assault weapons. As Representative Chip Roy, a Republican, argues, the Second Amendment was “designed purposefully to empower the people to resist the force of tyranny used against them.”

    Some champions of this insurrectionist theory of the Second Amendment seem to glorify violence against public officials. Two weeks before the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection overran the U.S. Capitol, Representative Lauren Boebert declared that the Second Amendment “has nothing to do with hunting, unless you’re talking about hunting tyrants, maybe.”

    https://archive.ph/BuBQa

    Boebert is right. And she represents the real Colorado, not the fentanyl and meth and monkeypox and A.I.D.S. of the urban Front Range.

  24. Now that the bear market has overtaken all of the headline US stock market indexes, is it safe to assume that the market can only go up from here?

  25. Globalist scum media.

    Washington Post — Five things about covid we still don’t understand at our peril (9/26/2022):

    “The swift development of vaccines to protect against severe illness and death from covid-19 has been hailed as one of the great scientific achievements of this century. But the vaccines did not, as some had hoped, bring the pandemic to an end. They provided protection against severe illness and death, but not infection and transmission, especially after the arrival of the more transmissible delta and omicron variants.

    “They’ve been extremely effective, but they also have their shortcomings,” said Mark Siedner, an infectious-disease doctor at Massachusetts General Hospital. “Immunity wanes, and their ability to protect us against newer variants has been variable — in some cases quite strong, in other cases not as good as we’d like.”

    Even people who were fully vaccinated have become infected with the latest iterations of the virus. The United States still records more than 50,000 new daily infections and 400 deaths daily, according to seven-day averages compiled by The Washington Post.

    While new booster shots targeting both the original strain of the virus, as well as the now-dominant omicron subvariants, were authorized in late August by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, some argue that reconfiguring vaccines to match the last variant will always put us one step behind the virus.”

    https://archive.ph/3jcig

    This newest batch of mRNA poison was tested on eight mice.

    When you schedule your “booster” also contact your attorney to make sure your will is up to date, because you won’t be around much longer…

  26. Squawk Box
    We would not be surprised to see months of deflation soon, says ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood

    ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood joins CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss ARK’s new venture fund, which is targeted toward individual investors with a minimum investment of $500. Wood breaks down her expectations for interest rates and inflation in the months ahead.
    an hour ago
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/09/27/we-would-not-be-surprised-to-see-months-of-deflation-soon-says-ark-invest-ceo-cathie-wood.html

      1. at least burn it in the fireplace to help keep you warm this winter. Get some use out of it.

        Can you imagine the new hedge fund? it’s co-managed by Jim Cramer and Cathie Wood.

        1. “Can you imagine the new hedge fund? it’s co-managed by Jim Cramer and Cathie Wood.”

          Better to invest in wine, women and song.

  30. August 2022 Housing Market Update for Denver/Front Range!
    Sep 27, 2022 August 2022 vs August 2021—take 10 seconds to see how this year’s real estate market matches up to last year! Days on market, average sales price, and and inventory are all critical indicators of the current health of the marketplace.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXv2kDqG5Dc

    17 seconds stats only.

  31. China’s luxury goods magnate’s $3 billion dream collapses
    Spotlight on China
    Sep 25, 2022 Qiu Yafu, chairman and owner of the Shandong-based company Shandong Ruyi, invested more than $3 billion (about 20 billion yuan) in the acquisition of luxury garment companies from Paris to London, including French fashion brands Sandro and Maje, British trench coat brand Aquascutum, and Lycra, the stretch fabric maker. His dream was to become the Chinese version of luxury goods giant Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy LVMH.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUxlU3Parc4

    5 minutes.

  32. Russia Today, because the New York Times and Washington Post are globalist scum media.

    “The Ukrainian government is being heavily supported with American money, with Washington contributing $1.5 billion per month to the budget, Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelensky has revealed.

    The sum was mentioned by the Ukrainian leader during an interview with CBS host Margaret Brennan for the ‘Face the Nation’ program, which was aired on Sunday.

    Currently Kiev runs “a deficit of $5 billion in our budget,” Zelenksy said, adding that “the United States gives us $1.5 billion every month to support our budget to fight” against Russia.

    Zelensky argued that arming and otherwise helping Ukraine militarily is a “win-win” for the US.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/563526-zelensky-us-taxpayers-funding/

    Extortion, money laundering, and arms trafficking.

    1. Yup, DOW is down after being up this morning. And Mighty Jay gave another speech this time, looking to regulate Bitcoin. Bitcoin is responding accordingly.

        1. Heh, I’d say Yes and No. They say No because they realize that regulation will hold down the price, no more wild swings to the upside. They also say Yes because they want the protections that regulations bring, and they also want the get the regs in place and be done with it, and then allow BTC to rocket to the moooon again.

          Of course, if there’s any regulation at all, that pretty much kills the magic “widespread adoption” that they need for those wild six-figure predictions.

    1. It’s the best time of the year in the Columbia Basin right now, but that sun is trending low on the horizon. I unpacked the insulated cycling clothing yesterday, so sad despite the local harvest. 🙁

  36. Mortgage news daily saying that 30yr fixed confirming is at 6.87%. Wowza – do we think it might get to 8% by EOY? That has to have some effect on the more speculative REIC buying.

    Also from MND

    What’s important is that less than a year, the payment on a new $400k mortgage is up at least $1000/month. Many lenders are now quoting top tier 30yr fixed rates over 7%.

    Why have rates spiked so quickly? One might assume is has something to do with last week’s Fed rate hike. After all, the Fed hiked rates and then mortgage rates went higher, but that’s actually not the issue at the moment.

    See Rates from Lenders in Your Area
    The issue stems from strange goings-on in the realm of fiscal policy in The UK. Yes, that’s an odd thing to consider when it comes to mortgage rates in the US, but it’s important to understand just how huge the market reaction to recent events in The UK has been. Without going into tedious detail, the best way to convey the drama is by noting that British 10yr yields have risen more than 1.00% in 4 business days.

    Contrast that to US 10yr yields which have only jumped by about a third of that. Also consider that “a third” is a smaller than normal correlation for these two markets.

    In other words, the market movement overseas is so big that, even with a far diminished echo, it’s been enough for another major jump in rates.

  37. Contract cancellations from CNBC. Why would anyone one sign up unless it is a super awesome deal.

    In August, roughly 15.2% of home purchase agreements in the U.S. fell through, after hovering above 15% the previous two months as well, according to new data from Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.

    Aside from a brief period during the early days of the pandemic — where the rate surged to 17.2% — the past three months have had the highest rate of canceled contracts on record. Normally, the rate is around 12%.

    The cancellation rate is even higher in some cities, with 20% of buyers backing out of purchase agreements in 10 of the 50 most populous metro areas in the country. Here’s a look at those real estate markets, ranked by the highest rate of cancellations:

    Jacksonville, Florida: 26.1%
    Las Vegas: 23%
    Atlanta: 22.6%
    Orlando, Florida: 21.9%
    Fort Lauderdale, Florida: 21.7%

      1. Senior Adviser takes on a whole new meaning with this Resident.

        Is Keisha Lance Bottoms a stage name or are they being serious?

    1. “Seller buys down rate 2% the first year and 1% the second year. Refinance when rates drop next June/July!”

      Yea! Sheesh what a trap of quicksand. They won’t be able to refinance because property depreciation flips them negative and rates probably will be even higher.

    1. It should trigger cancellations everywhere in FL.

      1. Do I want to buy in a city that gets hit by hurricanes? No
      2. Do I want to buy in a State that gets hit by hurricanes? No
      3. Do I have money for down payment? No
      4. Are houses cheap and good deals are available? No
      5. Do I have money? No
      6. Are interests rates below 3%? No

      Nays have it!

  42. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumps over 7 percent
    CNBC Television
    Sep 27, 2022

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBC2dNG0W2s

    1:23. I find it interesting that so many are talking about ‘when is it going to stop’ without a pause to ask, how did we get into a situation with global crater? It was the interest rate manipulation that resulted in the crater. So you just want to start the process all over again?

    Hey Diane, there’s a subject fer yer TV show.

    1. to ask, how did we get into a situation with global crater?

      The free money was fun while it lasted. Now it’s time to pay the bill, with interest.

      1. “When most people read that the US debt to GDP is more than 130 percent, their eyes glaze over. But to put this into perspective, only three countries – Greece, Lebanon, and Japan – have higher ratios. And there is a growing concern any one of these countries could start a sovereign debt contagion–particularly in a world where there is about $300 trillion in debt floating around but only $100 trillion in economic output per year.”

        https://www.aier.org/article/luxury-beliefs-death-spiral/

      2. “Them who understands interest gets it. Them who don’t, pays it.”

        — Punchline from an LDS Church conference talk

    2. Ayup! My local New England credit union is now quoting 7.25 on a 30.

      Housing nail meet housing coffin.

      Oh….Let’s Go Brandon!

        1. Wells is at 6.625% (APR of 6.834%)

          Does not list the requirements to get this rate. Could it be a “tease” where if you actually try to get that rate you get: “You don’t meet the criteria for that rate.?”

  44. Politicians who enacted strict COVID-19 measures including lockdowns and vaccine mandates should be brought to justice, says Republican Maryland Attorney General candidate Michael Peroutka.

    “Nothing could be more on the point that all these lockdowns, mandates, orders, edicts, proclamations, declarations, whatever you want to call them, none of them were lawful. They were all violation of the law, and that can’t continue,” Peroutka told The Epoch Times. “Those people who have violated this document [the Maryland Constitution] need to be brought to justice.”

    He believes that implementing the restrictions was an abuse of power under the Maryland Constitution, citing Article 44 of the Maryland Declaration of Rights, a document similar to the Bill of Rights.

    Article 44 says “any departure” or “violation” of the provision of the U.S. Constitution and Maryland Constitution, for whatever reason, is subversive of “good Government.”

    “I would investigate and prosecute anybody who did that,” he said.

    He thinks the science behind the COVID-19 measures is far from being perfect, but even if it is, the law still prohibits the government from implementing such restrictions.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/politicians-behind-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-should-be-brought-to-justice-maryland-ag-candidate_4752876.html

    1. S&P 500 ends Tuesday down after notching a fresh bear market low, Dow slips more than 100 points
      Sarah Min
      Jesse Pound

      The S&P 500 fell deeper into a bear market on Tuesday after setting a new 2022 low, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield continued to climb to levels not seen in at least a decade.

      The broader market index fell as low as 3,623.29 during the session which broke below the previous bear market intraday low of 3,636 that was set in mid-June. It closed down 0.21% at 3,647.29.

      Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125.82 points, or 0.43%, to 29,134.99 — giving up a gain of nearly 400 points earlier in the day. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.25% to 10,829.50.

      The S&P 500 is now 24.3% below its record set in January, while the Dow is 21.2% below its all-time high. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 33% since hitting a record in November.

      The 10-year Treasury yield gained nearly 9 basis points at 3.972% as it continued its climb toward 4%. The 2-year rate was little changed near 4.31% after dipping in early trading.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/stock-futures-are-little-changed-after-sp-500-closes-at-lowest-level-since-2020.html

  46. Mortgage rate hike concerns are ‘chronological snobbery’ from younger Americans: Strategist
    Yahoo Finance
    Sep 27, 2022
    Smead Capital Management CIO Bill Smead examines the trajectory of the current bear market, generational sentiments on relatively elevated mortgage rates, and the state of the real estate market for prospective home buyers and businesses.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jv1_J_piY8

    6:48.

    Homebuilder sentiment ‘has deteriorated rapidly’ amid rising rates, strategist says
    Yahoo Finance
    Sep 27, 2022
    Charles Schwab Senior Investment Research Manager Kevin Gordon joins Yahoo Finance Live anchors Brad Smith and Brian Sozzi to discuss U.S. mortgage rates, homebuilder sentiment, rate hikes, inflation, market uncertainty, and the outlook for the economy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3939uQNPx8

    6 minutes. B word – he said it again!

      1. All proceeding according to the WEF’s plans.

        And their puppets, like Brandon and friends, don’t care if they get caught being idiots. Take the whole “Inflation Is Defeated” bash they had on the very same day the report said it wasn’t and the big market crash began. You’d think they might be embarrassed or concerned that they might come across as clueless. But no, they just keep telling bigger and bigger whoppers with a straight face. Pelosi gets booed of a stage at a concert in New York. Did she do anything to save face?

        Meanwhile, the antiPresident threatens half the citizenry, calling them fascists and dangerous. And he he still does. He claims that we are violent, when it was his Red Guards who were burning the country down. And all these piles of lies are told with a straight face. It’s like you have to be a sociopath to be a Dem these days.

    2. “I promise you we’ll be able to do it.”

      Because they already told him it was going to happen.

      The smirk on the senile old b@stards face reminds me of when he said he didn’t need your help now (his voters before the election) but I will need it after the election.

    1. Updated Tue, Sep 27 2022 10:34 PM EDT
      Stock futures fall after S&P 500 hits new low for the year
      Jesse Pound
      Stocks can stabilize once negative earnings revisions end, says Veritas’ Greg Branch

      Stock futures were lower on Tuesday evening after a relief rally failed during regular trading hours and the S&P 500 hit a new intraday low for the year.

      Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 217 points, or about 0.74%. S&P 500 futures shed 0.87%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 1.11%.

      During Tuesday’s session, stocks gave up a large early gain and the S&P 500 fell below its intraday low from June, which was the previous market bottom. The Dow and S&P 500 closed lower for the sixth straight day, while the Nasdaq Composite ground higher by 0.25%. All three major averages are now in bear market territory.

      Several technical metrics show that the stock market may be oversold, but some on Wall Street are worried that investors have not priced in an earnings slowdown and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. The S&P 500 breaking below its previous low is a key indicator for some that stocks still have further to fall.

      “I think we’re certainly not at the end of the road in terms of pricing in the full recessionary outcome. … We really need to get to dirt cheap valuations on equities, and we’re not quite there yet,” Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, said on Tuesday’s “Closing Bell.”

      On Wednesday, investors will get an updated look at the housing market with pending home sales from August.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/stock-market-news-open-to-close-futures-live-updates.html

    2. Updated Tue, Sep 27 2022 10:33 PM EDT
      Major Asia markets down 2%; Chinese yuan at weakest since 2008
      Abigail Ng
      This is CNBC’s live blog covering Asia-Pacific markets.
      The logo of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), is displayed at the bourse in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, Oct. 2, 2020.
      Akio Kon | Bloomberg via Getty Images

      Major indexes in the Asia-Pacific briefly dipped 2% after the S&P 500 set a new 2022 low overnight on Wall Street. The offshore and onshore Chinese yuan reached weakest levels since 2008.

      Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly fell 2% and last traded 1.7% lower, while the Topix index slipped 1.37%.

      Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s July meeting said a few policy board members see consumer inflation slowing in fiscal 2023 unless commodity prices continue to rise.

      Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also fell 2% and last traded at 1.82 lower. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was 0.44% lower and the Shenzhen Component fell more than 1%.

      MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 1.12%. The Kospi in South Korea shed 2.1%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.33% lower.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/asia-markets-bank-of-japan-australia-retail-sales-currencies-oil.html

    3. MoneyWatch
      Buckle up, America: The Fed plans to sharply boost unemployment
      moneywatch
      By Irina Ivanova
      September 26, 2022 / 10:32 AM

      In case the U.S. economy wasn’t hurting enough already, the Federal Reserve has a message for Americans: It’s about to get much more painful.

      Fed Chair Jerome Powell made that amply clear last week when the central bank projected its benchmark rate hitting 4.4% by the end of the year — even if it causes a recession.

      “There will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions,” Powell said in his September 21 economic outlook. “We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.”

      In plain English, that means unemployment. The Fed forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% next year, from 3.7% today — a number that implies an additional 1.2 million people losing their jobs.
      …
      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-interest-rates-unemployment-inflation-layoffs/

    4. The bulls are supposedly gloomy…yet expect stock prices to go up by year end.

      You can’t have it both ways. Either drop the gloom talk and live on in a blissful state of denial, or hop on the gloom train and reckognize that the worst is yet to come.

      1. Delivering Alpha
        Investors believe aggressive Fed will keep stock market down for the rest of 2022, CNBC survey shows
        Published Tue, Sep 27 2022 11:47 AM EDT
        Updated Tue, Sep 27 2022 1:04 PM EDT
        Yun Li
        thumbnail
        Patricia Martell
        Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
        Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, September 26, 2022.
        Brendan McDermid | Reuters

        The Federal Reserve’s most aggressive pace of tightening since the 1980s is making the majority of Wall Street investors believe stocks will be underwater for longer, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey.

        We polled about 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money, asking where they stood on the markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond. The survey was conducted this week.

        Fifty-eight percent of respondents said their biggest concern for the markets right now is the Fed being too aggressive. The central bank last week raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for a third straight time and pledged more hikes to beat inflation, triggering a big sell-off in risk assets.

        “While this aggressive pace of hiking should bring inflation closer to the 2% target, it will also likely bring economic hardship,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors. “The Fed’s tolerance for economic pain doesn’t bode well for risk assets. … Get defensive, times are getting tougher.”
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/investors-believe-aggressive-fed-will-keep-stock-market-down-for-the-rest-of-2022-cnbc-survey-shows.html

    5. 2 minute read
      September 27, 2022 10:57 AM PDT
      Last Updated 13 hours ago
      Options activity hints U.S. stock market has not reached bottom- Barclays
      By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
      Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., September 13, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

      NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) – Options trading activity does not yet hint at a bottom in U.S. stocks, Barclays derivatives strategists said on Tuesday, rebutting speculation among some investors that a record surge in put option trading volumes suggested the market may be nearing a reversal.

      With the S&P 500 (.SPX) marking a fresh bear market low on Tuesday, down 24% for the year, traders and investors are searching for clues as to when the market may bottom out.

      Trading in put contracts – typically used to protect against market losses – has surged, with a record 33.93 million put contracts changing hands on Friday alone. That left traders who view extreme put-option activity as a sign of investor pessimism peaking wondering if the selloff is done.

      That’s not the case, according to Barclays.

      “Contrary to popular belief, equity investors did not hastily pile into protection buying,” Barclays equity derivatives strategist Stefano Pascale said in a note on Tuesday.

      “But unlike the previous market lows in June, they also more patiently refrained from rushing to monetize existing hedges, suggesting they expect the worst is yet to come.”

      But while the trading activity suggests there is still fear in the market, it has not risen to levels associated with past market bottoms.
      …
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/options-activity-hints-us-stock-market-has-not-reached-bottom-barclays-2022-09-27/

    6. Markets
      Treasury 10-Year Yields Rise Above 4% Amid Global Debt Selloff
      – Bloomberg Treasury index is heading for worst year since 1970s
      – Yen intervention may mean Japan sells Treasuries, Nomura says
      The US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C.
      Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg
      By Garfield Clinton Reynolds
      September 27, 2022 at 7:28 PM PDT
      Updated on September 27, 2022 at 11:27 PM PDT

      Treasury 10-year yields climbed above 4% for the first time in more than a decade as investors were rattled by Federal Reserve hawkishness and concern over potential Japanese sales of US government debt.

      An index of US sovereign securities extended its worst year since at least the 1970s after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned the central bank has to keep raising interest rates to retain its credibility. US debt is also under pressure due to speculation the sliding yen will compel Japan to conduct more intervention, potentially funded by Treasuries sales.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/treasury-10-year-yields-rise-above-4-for-first-time-since-2010#xj4y7vzkg

    7. Mortgage rates soar to over 7% – the highest level in 21 years – as luxury home purchases fall 28% and rest of market tanks 19.5% – as monster Fed rises hit borrowers
      By Ronny Reyes For Dailymail.Com 11:30 EDT 27 Sep 2022 , updated 17:08 EDT 27 Sep 2022
      – Mortgage rates soared above 7 percent, the highest level in 21 years and far exceeding rates recorded during the 2008 housing market crash
      – Luxury home sales in the US have sunk by 28.1 percent year-over-year in August, beating out the previous record drop of 23.2 percent in June 2020
      – Markets in Oakland, San Jose, Miami, San Diego and Seattle have seen the biggest hits this year as all 50 major metro areas have been impacted
      – Non-luxury home sales across the nation have also dipped by 19.5 percent
      – Economists said the drop in sales can be attributed to soaring federal interest rates and high inflation

      Mortgage rates have spiked to more than 7 percent as luxury home sales plummet by 28 percent and regular market sales sink by 19.5 percent amid soaring federal interest rates and inflation.

      According to Mortgage Daily News, 30-year mortgage rates have now hit 7.08 percent – the highest level in 21 years – following the Federal Reserve’s latest 0.75 percent interest rate hike.

      It comes as luxury home sales see their biggest year-over-year decline in August since the pandemic brought the housing market to a standstill in 2020, with sales dropping by 23.2 percent, according to Redfin’s latest report.

      Sales of luxury homes have sunk in all the nation’s top 50 metro areas, with the largest drops seen in Oakland, California, at 63.9 percent; San Jose, California, at 59.6 percent; Miami at 55.5 percent, San Diego at 55.3 percent and Seattle at 52 percent.

      Portland; Nassau County, New York; Washington, D.C., New York City; and St. Louis all saw the smallest decrease in luxury home sales.

      Meanwhile, in the non-luxury market, San Diego; San Jose; Anaheim, California; Phoenix; and Washington, D.C. have seen the biggest drop in sales.

      The greatest changes are concentrated in West Coast metropolitan areas, where the markets have been affected by a mass exodus of citizens deterred by pricey homes, rising crime and warnings of a looming recession. The rise of work-from-home culture also freed tech sector employees in the West Coast to move to more affordable cities.

      Large metropolitans like Austin, Washington D.C. and Miami, have also been impacted as the cities were popular getaways during the height of COVID, but with the pandemic waning, many have moved back.

      Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said the latest plunge has been fueled by rising interest rates, inflation, and the latest surge in mortgage rates, which shot above 6 percent last week, exceeding rates since the 2008 housing market crash.

      ‘High-end-house hunters are getting sticker shock when they see the impact of rising mortgage rates on paper,’ Fairweather said. ‘For a luxury buyer, a higher interest rate can equate to a monthly housing bill that’s thousands of dollars more expensive.’

      ‘Someone who was in the market for a $1.5 million home last year may now have a maximum budget of $800,000 thanks to higher mortgage rates,’ he added. ‘Luxury goods are often the first thing to get cut when uncertain times force people to reexamine their finances.’
      …
      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11254447/Luxury-homes-fall-28-rest-market-plummets-19-5.html

      1. The effect of 7% mortgage rates won’t show up in home price and sales data for a couple of months. And given how rapidly rates are rising, it doesn’t seem like they have topped out. Used home owners, sellers, and realtors are truly and duly fooked.

        ‘Someone who was in the market for a $1.5 million home last year may now have a maximum budget of $800,000 thanks to higher mortgage rates,’

        1-800/1500 = 47% drop in purchase budgets for mortgage-financed buyers. Is that alot?

    8. Finance ·Housing
      These 2 maps show the U.S home price correction is sharper—and more widespread—than previously thought
      BY Lance Lambert
      September 27, 2022 at 11:52 PM PDT
      The Pandemic Housing Boom saw U.S. home prices soar 42%. Heading forward, some of those gains will get erased.

      On Tuesday, the going home price correction finally showed up in the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, as the reading for July came in 0.24% below its June reading. That marks the first month-over-month decline in home prices since 2012.

      While this is a small numerical drop in the Case-Shiller Index, it’s still a clear indication of a trajectory shift. The decline is also bigger than it first appears, because the Case-Shiller Index is a lagged three-month average. That means the price drop in July was sharp enough to wipe out all gains in May and June.

      It’ll take months for a resale index like the Case-Shiller—the industry’s gold standard for measuring residential real estate prices—to tabulate the actual home price declines that agents and builders alike are witnessing across the nation.

      To better understand the ongoing home price correction, let’s take a look at the more up-to-the-minute home value indices calculated by Zillow and John Burns Real Estate Consulting. While we wait on the Case-Shiller Index to catch up, these indices give us a good idea of what happened to regional home prices through the end of August.
      …
      https://fortune.com/2022/09/28/housing-market-home-price-correction-2022/

    9. Yahoo Finance
      Housing: Home price growth slowed by record amount in July
      Dani Romero
      Tuesday September 27, 2022 at 6:17 AM·3 min read

      Home price growth in the U.S. slowed by the largest amount on record in July, clocking in the fourth straight month of deceleration. But values remain markedly higher year over year.

      A national measure of prices in July rose 15.8% over the same month last year, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed Tuesday. That’s down from June, which showed an 18% annual gain.

      The 20-city composite increased 16.1%, down from 18.6% in June and far lower than the consensus estimate from Bloomberg of 17.35%.

      “Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, wrote in a press release. “For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index.”

      The figures underscore how quickly the housing market has cooled off from the pandemic-era frenzy. Price growth is expected slow even further because rates moved even higher, but the double-digit annual price gains still remain unaffordable for many would-be buyers.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-home-prices-case-shiller-131733938.html

    10. Real Estate
      The Housing Market Is Slowing. Just Look at Lumber Prices.
      By Myra P. Saefong
      Sept. 27, 2022 2:58 pm ET
      Home builders are seeing more cancellations following the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates.
      Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

      Lumber prices have dropped by more than 60% so far this year, but don’t count on a recovery soon. Higher interest rates and inflation will continue to slow demand for single-family homes.

      “Home builders have faced an enormous uptick in cancellations over the past several months due to the sharp rise in mortgage rates and the related softening demand for home buying,” says Alexander Snyder, portfolio manager, real estate securities, at CenterSquare Investment Management. “The trickle down of higher rates is cascading into lower demand for new houses, which leads to lower demand for lumber, which leads to lower prices for lumber.”

      The most-active November futures contract for random length lumber settled at $410.80 per thousand board feet on Sept. 26. That is the lowest settlement since June 2020 and prices are down 64% year to date, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices have lost around 75% from the peak price during the Covid-19 pandemic of $1,670.50 on May 7, 2021.

      “Lumber has witnessed complete demand destruction from a housing standpoint,” says Greg Kuta, president and CEO of lumber broker Westline Capital Strategies. It has been a “one-two gut punch” in the form of demand destruction with every kind of ratchet higher in interest rates.

      When you factor in higher inflation, price appreciation over the past year, and higher interest rates, “the single family component of housing is getting annihilated,” he says.

      There is still a housing shortage but you’re seeing a “transfer,” away from single-family homes into multifamily homes, which don’t require nearly as much “consumption of dimensional framing lumber” as single-family homes, says Kuta.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-housing-market-is-slowing-just-look-at-lumber-prices-51664305104

    11. Do y’all remember the volatility vortex that was set off this time of year back in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed? I do. It was epic, and beyond the control of sovereign financial entities.

      Past is prologue.

      1. The Financial Times
        US Treasury bonds
        ‘Volatility vortex’ slams into $24tn US government bond market
        Key measure of turbulence in Treasuries reaches highest level since 2020 coronavirus crisis
        A water vortex
        Fixed income investors’ nerves have been frayed by a series of events most commonly seen during market crises
        Kate Duguid and Adam Samson in New York and Colby Smith in Washington yesterday

        The $24tn US Treasury market has been hit with its most severe bout of turbulence since the coronavirus crisis, underscoring how big swings in international bonds and currencies and jitters over US rate rises have spooked investors.

        The Ice BofA Move index, which tracks fixed income market volatility, has reached its highest level since March 2020, a time when deep uncertainty about how the pandemic would affect the world economy set off massive fluctuations in US government bonds.

        “Right now it is all about market volatility,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities. “You have investors staying away because of the volatility — and investors staying away increases volatility. It is a volatility vortex.”

        Fixed income investors’ nerves have been frayed by a series of events most commonly seen during market crises. Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, last week stepped in to defend the yen after the currency rapidly tumbled to a 24-year low against the dollar. Just days later, plans for big tax cuts by the UK government ignited a historic sell-off in Britain’s currency and sovereign debt markets.

        These international events have added to a powerful pullback in the US Treasury market that accelerated after the Federal Reserve last week delivered its third-straight 0.75 percentage point rate rise and signalled significantly tighter monetary policy to come.

        The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for global borrowing costs, has surged to nearly 4 per cent from 3.2 per cent at the end of August, leaving it set for the biggest monthly rise since 2003. It is on track for its sharpest ever annual rise. The two-year yield, more sensitive to fluctuations in US monetary policy, has leapt 3.55 percentage points this year, which would also mark a historic increase.

        The big price movements have left investors wary of trading in a market that acts as the bedrock of the global financial system and is typically considered a haven during times of stress.

        With investors on the sidelines, liquidity in the Treasury market — the ease with which traders buy and sell — has deteriorated to its worst level since March 2020, according to a Bloomberg index. Poor liquidity tends to exacerbate price swings, worsening volatility.

        In a sign of how the fraught conditions are keeping some fund managers away, the US has drawn lacklustre demand at sales this week for a combined $87bn in new debt.

        A two-year issuance on Monday priced at a high yield of 4.29 per cent, while a five-year deal one day later priced at 4.23 per cent — both marking the highest borrowing costs for the government since 2007.
        …

  51. I was just on a conference call with someone who has been seeing multiple doctors because of a systemic inflammatory response. She’s on a JEDI (justice, equity, diversity and inclusion) committee.

    1. “…systemic inflammatory response.”

      The preservatives and other ingredients in packaged food should be the first thing to eliminate from the diet; cook at home.

    1. Although I posted this to poke fun at the hypocrite climate justice family the video of the brainwashed youth at the top of the article is an eye opener.

      Mum of climate activist furious after teen daughter mocked in radio interview

      A 16-year-old climate activist has been mocked on live radio for an “ironic” admission — sparking a furious response from her mother.

      September 28, 2022 – 1:37PM
      Frank Chung
      @franks_chung
      3 min read

      After a clip of the interview went viral online, Cook’s mother penned a furious opinion piece saying the host should be “ashamed” for “bullying” her daughter.

      “On Friday evening, I listened in horror as my 16-year-old daughter had a phone conversation with someone who appeared to be bullying her, laughing at her, and talking over her,” Rose Cook wrote in The Spinoff.

      “As soon as she got off the call I demanded to know who the hell was speaking to my child in this way.”

      Ms Cook said her daughter, who is the spokesperson for School Strike 4 Climate in Wellington, had some experience dealing with the media but “she wasn’t prepared for Heather du Plessis-Allan”.

      “Commentators like du Plessis-Allan don’t give a s**t about climate change,” she wrote.

      https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/mum-of-climate-activist-furious-after-teen-daughter-mocked-in-radio-interview/news-story/b51ead92aecbf557041fe87e5f5f83a1

    2. and then is asked where she flew last… she flew to Fiji.

      Staycations for thee, but not for me!

      It could be worse, I’ll bet St. Greta flies around on a Gulfstream

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