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There Is PAIN In The Markets!

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  1. From the first 5:43 video:

    San Diego Home Prices Falling | Where to buy in San Diego right now
    Allesen Cann
    Sep 30, 2022 Home prices are down 9.3% in San Diego County, but there are areas where prices are down MUCH MORE. In this video I show you 5 areas where prices are down at least 22% since the highs earlier this year, and in fact, they’re all down compared to this time last year as well. If you’ve been looking for a time to get a deal… is the time!

    The second 8 minute video:

    Housing Market Correction!!!! There is PAIN in the markets!
    Audra Lambert
    Sep 30, 2022 The housing market is correcting and crashing in some areas due to the most recent mortgage rate hikes, fed rate hikes, inflation, and more. This video will explain why we are experiencing such a strong and fast impact. Its going to hurt!! If you are considering moving or selling your property in Orange County, don’t hesitate in reaching out to me.

    The third 13:26 video:

    How much is the Raleigh-Durham housing market cooling?!
    Sep 30, 2022

    The last 10:46 video:

    SF Bay Area California Housing Market Crash is Here! Home Prices Plummeting!
    Oct 1, 2022 The San Francisco Bay Area housing market is leading the nation, but not in a good way. They’re seeing some of the largest price declines in the nation. The big question is, are we through the worst of it, or are we going to see a repeat of the last California housing market crash?

    1. “If you’ve been looking for the time to get a deal…now is the time.”

      If history is any guide, now is the time to standby and stand back, as knifecatchers step up to drive hard bargains which put housing prices on a negative trajectory. Once falling prices take hold, it has historically taken about five years for them to bottom out. Why not sit on your hands for a while, and let others absorb the losses?

      1. patience is a virtue.

        But everyone wants theirs now now now

        And of course, this time it’s different.

    2. 5 areas where prices are down at least 22% since the highs earlier this year

      #5 (92123) is down 42% since April!

  2. A reader sent this in:

    Romspen Investment Corp., one of Canada’s largest private debt managers, is restricting redemptions from its flagship real estate fund, as the North American mortgage market adjusts to a prolonged period of rising interest rates.

    This week, Romspen told its investors looking to cash out from the Romspen Mortgage Investment Fund that they may have to wait, citing delays in loan repayments and the need to protect against loan losses. The company uses investor money to provide mortgages to higher-risk commercial developers, who typically don’t qualify for bank loans.

    The fund’s ability to pay back its investors largely relies on its borrowers’ ability to refinance their debt. But soaring mortgage rates have taken a toll on the cost and availability of refinancing in commercial real estate markets in the U.S. and Canada.

    In a notice to unitholders on Monday, Romspen said it can’t continue to honour investor redemptions at the pace they’re being requested. More than $700-million has been returned to Romspen’s investors over the past 18 months, and the current redemption queue represents roughly another $325-million – about 12 per cent of the fund’s assets. The fund had $2.8-billion in assets as of the end of June.

    Instead of providing immediate redemptions, the company will create a side pool for unitholders who want to cash out, and will allocate a proportional percentage of assets to that fund. Investors who elect to redeem will receive payouts as cash becomes available through loan repayments or asset sales. But the illiquid nature of the fund’s investments could mean long waits.

    In early September, Ninepoint announced the approval of a restructuring plan that would allow for redemptions to resume. But, like Romspen, it will create side pools for two of its funds that pay out redeeming investors as loans are repaid or assets are sold.

    In the cases of both Ninepoint and Romspen, an inherent drawback of private credit has come to the fore. Illiquid investments like real estate don’t always mesh well with fund structures that promise to give investors easy access to their money.

    Under normal market conditions, this balance tends to work pretty well for most funds. But the imperfect liquidity match “gets much more challenging when markets are more stressed,” Dan Hallett, principal and vice-president of research at Highview Financial Group, said in an e-mail.

    Real estate activity has plunged in recent months, as central bankers have hoisted interest rates to try to regain control over inflation. The rising costs of financing have, in turn, weighed on property valuations, as well as transaction and loan activity, most visibly in the residential space.

    “We are seeing similar hesitancy in the industrial and warehouse sector, which had been, until recently, an oasis of relative strength,” Romspen said in its second-quarter report, released last week.

    “The commercial real estate market presents a distinctly different picture than even six months ago.”

    1. “Illiquid investments like real estate don’t always mesh well with fund structures that promise to give investors easy access to their money.”

      Ya think???

      And yet this is the entire premise of retail banking, that a bank can issue demand deposits and then invest the proceeds in illiquid assets and make a profit. It simply doesn’t work long term, no matter how many risk management structures, stress tests, etc. you put in place. It’s like trying to square the circle, it doesn’t work mathematically.

  3. As the nation’s largest state, California is particularly exposed to national and global economic currents. When the U.S. economy catches a cold, California’s often contracts pneumonia.

    The Legislature’s budget analyst, Gabe Petek, warned of the state’s vulnerability last May while reviewing Gov. Gavin Newsom’s revised budget.

    “Predicting precisely when the next recession will occur is nearly impossible,” Petek told the Legislature. “Historically, however, certain economic indicators have offered warning signs that a recession is on the horizon (and) many of these indicators currently suggest a heightened risk of a recession within two years.”

    Citing inflation, a national decline in economic output, dropping home sales and other factors, Petek noted that “in the last five decades, a similar collection of economic conditions has occurred six times. Each of those six times a recession has occurred within two years (and often sooner).”

    In the three months since the $308 billion budget was enacted, the signs of slowdown — or perhaps the beginning of recession — have increased. Inflation has continued to rage, the Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates, the once-hot housing market has cooled, the stock market has taken a beating and California tax revenues have fallen several billion dollars short of the budget’s rosy assumptions.

    Meanwhile the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that during the second quarter of 2022, California’s economic output shrank by a half-percent while that of arch-rival Texas grew by 1.8%.

    This month, Petek released an updated, and somewhat downbeat, review of the state’s economy and the likelihood of a revenue shortfall.

    “At the time of our May outlook, we cautioned that economic indicators were suggesting a slowdown could be on the horizon,” Petek reminded lawmakers. “More recent economic data has continued to point in this direction. Consistent with this, our updated estimates suggest collections from the state’s ‘big three’ taxes — personal income, sales, and corporation taxes — are more likely than not to fall below the Budget Act assumption of $210 billion.”

    After the budget was enacted, the Legislature sent dozens of bills to Newsom that, if signed, would add as much as $30 billion in new spending. Citing that estimate, the governor has been vetoing spending bills with this warning: “With our state facing lower-than-expected revenues over the first few months of this fiscal year, it is important to remain disciplined when it comes to spending.”

    That’s a remarkable change of tone in just a few months.

    1. “Meanwhile the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that during the second quarter of 2022, California’s economic output shrank by a half-percent while that of arch-rival Texas grew by 1.8%.”

      I don’t suppose a massive exodus of economically viable households from California to less economically punitive locations has helped much?

  4. How many ghost homes are there?

    Drawing on 2018 Census data, the report suggests there were nearly 95,000 empty dwellings across Aotearoa.

    Nationwide, that was just over 5% of total housing supply.

    Auckland had the highest number of empty dwellings at 17,130, followed by Thames Coromandel at 8349, Christchurch 6732, Taupō 3582, and Queenstown-Lakes 3105.

    Feelings of vilification

    Most owners of ghost home said they were not willing be become landlords, with some saying it was not financially viable. Others had concerns about protecting their investment and how tenants might damage the property.

    The report also referenced negative perceptions and attitudes towards landlords as a barrier, saying they felt vilified and targeted by recent law changes, which included law changes to the Residential Tenancies Act that increased tenants’ rights.

    Respondents also predicted there would be fewer homes available for long-term rental and more homes would sit empty, although the report noted higher costs and interest rates would probably create financial strain on some investors, incentivising them to put their properties up for rent.

  5. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday a housing shortage is a key driver of the nation’s historic surge in inflation.

    “Since the Great Recession, the United States has not built enough housing to keep price growth relatively modest,” Harker said in an essay published on the bank’s website. This shortage is “a major driver of the far-too-high inflation plaguing our country,” he added.

    Harker’s essay noted that housing-driven inflation is “particularly alarming” in part because along with food price increases, housing factors affect almost all Americans.

    Moreover, “high housing inflation is a macroeconomic problem; money spent on housing is money not spent on education, durable goods, or meals out,” he added. “We must do everything we can to get shelter inflation under control.”

    1. “…a housing shortage is a key driver of the nation’s historic surge in inflation.”

      Was he referring to the shortage due to a record uptake by investors hoping to capitalize on the Fed’s highly inflationary recent monetary policy track record?

  6. A Rhyl man has spoken about how he was earning £10,000 a month in an offshore career before his life came crashing down. Andrew Morrissey worked as an offshore oil rig worker for two decades, and has now lifted the lid on the fickle riches of working offshore in a new tell-all book.

    Andrew said he reached the “highest of highs” during his 20 year career, but they were not set to last. In his new book, All at Sea: The Offshore Worker’s Fake Dream, Andrew explains how a sequence of events led to him losing everything.

    “I was earning big money and I was doing really well,” he said. “At one point I owned five houses, I was married and everything was good.” But things changed again when the housing market crashed in 2008.

    As property values plummeted and his marriage fell apart, Andrew decided he needed to get away. He returned to the oil industry, but this time in Marbella in Spain, where he spent thousands on living a luxury lifestyle.

    “I was getting paid 10,000 euros a month and just spending it all because I thought the banks were all going to catch up with me. I know people who were millionaires who weren’t spending money like I was.

    “Don’t get me wrong, I had an amazing time and I’ve got amazing memories but I’ve got nothing to show for it. I’ve probably spent about £1.5M over the past 20 years and I’ve come away with nothing.”

    When salaries in the oil industry began to dip, Andrew decided it was time to return to the UK and reunite with his family. But this return to North Wales also marked a return to reality.

    He explained: “I remember after I came back, my partner at the time telling me ‘you’re not the person I though you were’ because she thought I was a millionaire because of my lifestyle. Basically I was living a fake dream, for years and years I was spending everything I had.

    “I was travelling all over the pace, to Chine and Thailand but it wasn’t real. I remember I’d have to borrow money from my sister until I got paid because I had nothing left at the end of the month.”

  7. “Florida is already having a problem with [insurance] availability. It’s having a problem with affordability. And it’s having a problem with reliability when insurance companies are going insolvent,” said Nancy Watkins, a principal at Milliman actuarial consultants. “All three of the pillars of a sustainable market are under threat.”

    Friedlander said he expects Ian-related claims to drive several local insurance companies into bankruptcy, making it even harder and costlier for Florida homeowners to buy property coverage.

    “Many insurers have been on the financial edge for several years. This may push them over that cliff,” Friedlander said.

    The average property insurance rate in Florida is $4,231 — nearly triple the U.S. average of $1,544, according to the insurance institute.

    A major issue as Florida begins to recover is the extent to which damage was caused by wind or by water. The question has huge implications for property owners without federal flood coverage and for private insurers that could face billions of dollars in wind-damage claims.

    “There are going to be a lot of folks without flood coverage,” said Carolyn Kousky, a leading expert on flood insurance and associate vice president for economics and policy at the Environmental Defense Fund. “If you don’t have insurance, economic recovery from these events is really hard.”

    1. Anyone who is financially able to own property on Sanibel Island or Fort Myers beach should be able to easily foot the bill. Unfortunately, Florida insurers spread much of the risk cost over all Florida state insureds (with legislative help).

  8. Hold on tight: How NYC and state must prepare for the possible implosion of commercial real-estate values
    New York Daily News|2 hours ago
    As those who got used to working from home refuse to return five days a week — and businesses shed the expensive Manhattan footprints giving every employee a desk — the value of America’s costliest real estate is likely to crater.

  9. Princess Athena of Denmark, 10, is being BULLIED in school after being stripped of her title
    Daily Mail|15 hours ago
    Prince Joachim of Denmark has spoken out about Queen Margrethe’s recent decision to strip his four children of their royal titles and it was revealed that his daughter is being bullied at school.

  10. By now, I’m sure you’ve heard that buying a home has gotten astronomically more expensive in just the past 12 months as interest rates on mortgages shot up, an intentional shift stemming from the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight record-high inflation. You may have also heard that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage are approaching 7%, rising steadily from less than 3% a year ago (with further increases predicted), and vaguely thought, Gee, that is a lot! But when you actually break down what that means for homebuyers now, it’s a dizzying, infuriating amount more.

    Let’s take the hypothetical example of a $400,000 home (the median price of homes this year was $440,300). In September 2021, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.88%.

    With a 10% down payment, the monthly payment would’ve been about $1,495. Over three decades, or 360 monthly payments (which would end in 2051), that would add up to $538,047.

    By comparison, with mortgage rates averaging 6.7% by the end of September 2022, that $400,000 home would cost $836,280 over 30 years. (You can try the math yourself on a mortgage calculator.) The interest rate hike means the monthly payment would be about $2,323, or $828 more than it would have been 12 months ago. Over three decades, you’d be paying more than $298,000 for the same house.

  11. BRIDGEPORT — M&T Bank has laid off 325 employees in Connecticut related to its acquisition of People’s United Bank, while it is planning to eliminate another 333 positions and hiring for about 350 other jobs, the highly scrutinized company disclosed in a letter this week to state Attorney General William Tong.

    In total, there are 2,373 people employed by M&T in Connecticut, including the 333 who are set to lose their jobs.

  12. Rapidly decreasing home prices mean Opendoor is likely struggling to sell homes fast enough to offset the decline in value between the time they buy a house and resell it. Investors will find out more when the company reports third-quarter earnings. Still, management guiding for an adjusted EBITDA loss between $175 million and $125 million after posting positive EBITDA of $218 million the previous quarter is troubling. Remember, management provided that guidance in early August, so at that point, the company had already seen how part of its third quarter was unfolding.

    1. “Rapidly decreasing home prices mean Opendoor is likely struggling to sell homes fast enough to offset the decline in value between the time they buy a house and resell it.”

      This problem is mindlessly easy to solve. If they dropped their list prices to just slightly below current market value, they could generate bid wars and sell overnight.

      1. “Still, management guiding for an adjusted EBITDA loss between $175 million and $125 million after posting positive EBITDA of $218 million the previous quarter is troubling.”


  13. Colorado business leaders apparently took one look at inflation and rising interest rates and changed their minds about where the state’s economy is headed in the fourth quarter.

    Despite data showing two job openings per unemployed worker, some employers are pausing hires, while others nationwide have had layoffs. The sentiment pushed the Leeds Business Confidence Index to its fourth lowest level in 20 years.

    “For this to be a soft landing, for the Federal Reserve not to send us into a more significant recession, we need to have a balance between these people who are getting laid off and those open jobs that are there,” said Rich Wobbekind, faculty director of the Leeds Business Research Division at the University of Colorado Boulder business school. “We need to have the people getting laid off go into these open positions that are available out there.”

    1. “We need to have the people getting laid off go into these open positions that are available out there.”

      Tell that to hiring managers who even during the boom refused to hire anyone who wasn’t a 100% match and reqs would languish unfilled. I watched a req sit unfilled for almost a year where I work, until the hiring manager “gave up” and closed the req. We wasted our time interviewing over a dozen people, half of which could have performed the job but were not hired because “reasons”.

        1. “HR has been the death of productive America”

          HR doesn’t help, but my observation is that it’s the hiring managers themselves who search for any reason to not hire:

          Manager: It took them a little too long to complete the exercise
          Me: Yeah, but it was flawless, it shows they have a good eye for detail and they get it done right the first time.
          Manager: Still took them too long.

    1. Mortgages
      Mortgage rate forecast for October 2022: More strange times
      Written by Erik J. Martin
      Edited by Suzanne De Vita
      Oct. 1, 2022 / 4 min read

      The spookiest season of the year could also bring more weirdness to mortgage rates and an uncertain — if not scary — period for borrowers.

      That’s because rates have leaped significantly in recent weeks. As of Sept. 28, the 30-year fixed was on track to 7 percent, while the 15-year fixed was ticking toward 6 percent. Even the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) has been looking less attractive, up a whopping 36 basis points in just the last week to over 5 percent.

      Will the rate landscape remain frightening this month, or will there be more treats than tricks for borrowers? We asked the experts for their take.

      ‘A unique time’

      If you’re a borrower, you can mostly expect much of the same pricier financing this month. Inflation is still weighing on the economy — price gains in August remained at a 40-year high — forcing the Federal Reserve to keep up its own pressure on rates. With five hikes under its belt so far this year, the central bank is poised to increase rates yet again in November and December.

      Unless inflation and Fed policy changes meaningfully, for mortgage rates, “the bias would be to the upside,” says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.

      “Interest rates are going up at a faster pace than most of us have ever seen in our adult lives, and with the amount of global debt out there, this makes for a troublesome combination,” says McBride. “Volatility and uncertainty are to be expected, but we’re getting to the point where it pays to expect the unexpected. This is a unique time.”

      For October, McBride anticipates the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to average in the range of 6.5 percent to 6.8 percent, and the 15-year fixed to average 5.5 percent to 5.75 percent.

      “Rates will continue to rise, as we’ve seen little to no change in the recent rate of inflation,” says Dennis Shirshikov, head of content for Awning, a portal for single-family investment properties. For October, Shirshikov expects the 30-year to average right under 7 percent (6.95 percent) and the 15-year to average 6.5 percent.

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