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If You Bought At The Peak, You’re Probably Kicking Yourself Right Now

A report from Market Watch. “Prices ‘might go down a little bit, but a crash I consider to be a more than 10% decline in home values, and that seems far-fetched right now,’ says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin.”

From Bloomberg. “Home prices in the US have taken a turn and are now posting the biggest monthly declines since 2009. The sharpest correction in August was in San Jose, California, down 13% from its 2022 peak, followed by San Francisco at almost 11% and Seattle at 9.9%, the company said.”

The San Diego Union Tribune in California. “The prevalence of corporate buyers in the local housing market may be leveling off. Median home prices in August decreased for the third month in a row to $799,000, according to CoreLogic. While down from the all-time high of $850,000 in May. ‘It seems like it may be coming to an end now,’ Thomas Malone, the CoreLogic economist, said of the investor surge in the market. Investors can be more sensitive to interest rate increases and more hesitant to jump in, he said.”

The Columbia Missourian. “Following the national trend, the housing market in Boone County is showing signs of cooling down after a superheated market spike during the pandemic. This August, homebuyers saw lower prices in median single-family houses from last year, according to the Columbia Board of Realtors. Other signs of a slower market were an increase in house inventory and more days on the market, the report showed. In Columbia, home prices were down more than the rest of Boone County in August, by 3.8% from last year, selling for a median price of $255,000, according to Redfin.”

“These are signs that the housing market is cooling down in Boone County and, if it keeps up, homebuyers could start to see and negotiate lower prices, said Saku Aura, an assistant economics professor at MU. The current numbers are good for homebuyers compared to what was seen during the heated market the past couple of years, but for sellers ‘this is unambiguously bad news,’ Aura said.”

The Daily Sentinel in Colorado. “According to the Bray Report, active listings in Mesa County have had a dramatic increase over the past few months. Active listings were up 48% from August of the previous year, with 594 listings in August 2022 as opposed to 400 the same time a year prior. ‘I think active listings are up because people have decided to go forward with life. I think the actual sales are down because interest rates have gone up. It makes homes less affordable to the buyer pool,’ said Diane Hanke, a real estate agent with Bray Real Estate.”

“The median 2022 price for a Mesa County home reached an average high point of $410,000 in June, then that dropped to $399,000 in July. Data included in the Bray Report also illustrates a 22% decrease in sales. August 2022 reported a total of 266 houses sold, whereas 342 houses were sold the same time a year prior. Based on these trends, Hanke expects climbing interest rates to slow and eventually plateau, though she doesn’t expect prices to come down. ‘I think interest rates are going to stabilize,’ Hanke said. ‘I sold real estate when interest rates were 15-16%, so it doesn’t scare me, but it scares a lot of people. I think things will be the same next year as they are now, mainly a seller’s market. I don’t think prices are going to shoot up rapidly, but I don’t think they’re going to come down much, either.'”

The American Statesman. “University of Texas football head coach Steve Sarkisian has put his South Austin home on the market, but he’s not leaving Austin. The house, which has 5,331 square feet and five bedrooms, was listed for sale this week with an asking price of $7.5 million. Drew Tate, an Austin real estate broker who has the listing, said Sarkisian and his family have already moved into a newly built home that is a better fit. At the time Sarkisian was hired by UT in 2021, Austin ‘was a really tight market, with multiple offers and properties selling the first day on the market,’ said Tate, who represented the Sarkisians during their first Austin home search. ‘It was a crazy real estate time.'”

“Now, the market ‘has softened comparatively,’ he said.’It’s really moving closer to normal. For so long, we had so little inventory and so many buyers who were coming from out of town and running prices up. That has slowed. A 30% increase year-over-year in prices, which we have seen — that’s not sustainable,’ Tate said. ‘The market is really moving closer to normal.'”

The New York Times. “Are landlords minting money? It depends on the landlord. Publicly traded owners of sprawling real estate portfolios, such as Invitation Homes, have enjoyed some of their best returns over the past few quarters. Things look very different, however, for Neal Verma, whose company manages 6,000 apartments in the Houston area. Earlier this year, Verma experimented with raising rents enough to cover the cost of spiking wages, property taxes, insurance and maintenance. Turnover doubled in the properties where he tried it, as people left for nearby buildings.”

“‘It’s crushing our margins,’ Verma said. ‘Our profits from last year have evaporated, and we’re running at break-even at a number of properties. There’s some people who think landlords must be making money. No. We’ve only gone up 12 to 14%, and our expenses have gone up 30%.'”

“Steve Schwat is a principal at UIP Asset Management, which owns a portfolio of buildings in Washington, D.C., a market that has been resilient to economic cycles but hasn’t seen outsize rent growth after the early days of the pandemic. For him, the costs of financing and construction wipe out the upside of high occupancy rates and rising rents. ‘I think this inflationary environment is a more negative to landlords than it is a positive,’ Schwat said. ‘Most landlords would tell you, ‘I really liked 2021.’ Things were coming back, interest rates were low, things seemed to be going relatively easy; 2022 is a (expletive).'”

The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “Orlando rent prices fell in the third quarter of 2022, the first time in three years monthly rents have declined. The last time monthly rents fell on a quarterly basis was the third quarter of 2019. ‘It’s not … weakening; it’s normalizing,’ said Lisa McNatt, CoStar’s director of market analytics for Orlando. Vacancy rates also ticked up 1% from the previous quarter to 6.2%, primarily because of the completion of new apartments, McNatt said. Orlando added 3,000 new apartments from July through September, compared with only 949 new ones in the second quarter.”

From Kelowna now in Canada. “The worst of the price slashing is likely over in Kelowna’s confusing and rapidly changing housing market. The ReMax Fall Canadian Housing Market Outlook pegs the average residential sale price in Kelowna as of Aug. 31 at $933,112, an 11% tumble from its peak of $1,050,000 in February. 11% represents a significant $116,888 price drop. And it’s probably not finished falling, according to Kelowna-based ReMax Canada executive vice-president Elton Ash.”

“‘I imagine the total price drop will end up to be around 15%,’ said Ash. ‘So, that means the average residential sale price bottoming out in the high $800,000s.’ We did the math and a 15% plunge from the pinnacle of $1,050,000 is $892,500. ‘The market is definitely adjusting and changing. Confusing is the best way to put it,’ said Ash.”

“If you bought at the peak, you’re probably kicking yourself right now. If you’re trying to sell your home, you’re likely having to reduce the price repeatedly. And if you’re looking to buy a home, you’re probably holding off to see how low prices can go. Potential buyers willing to pull the trigger can likely negotiate a good deal. However, it’s all relative. The potential buyer on the precipice of a bargain likely just had to sell their previous home for a steal.”

Manchester Evening News. “The UK economy has been plunged into turmoil. A weak pound reduces our buying power on imported goods. It means everything becomes more expensive. First-time buyer Andrew, 30, from Sale, has a mortgage in principle with Nationwide. But following the crash he’s now wondering whether he should – or can even afford – to go ahead. ‘I’m concerned that I’m overextending with my potential purchase and that I’m going to end up losing my house in a few years. I’m worried about keeping up with mortgage payments and that if I buy now, houses will plummet within the next year and I’ll be screwed.'”

“‘The biggest factor in property price inflation has been the availability of mortgages,’ said Jamie Thompson of Openshaw-based Jamie Thompson Mortgages. ‘More and more lenders increasing their maximum loan sizes and making their criteria more flexible in the past 12 months has been a major factor in pushing prices higher and higher. Now that dozens of lenders have withdrawn all products, this could be the catalyst for a cliff edge drop in property prices.'”

From ABC News in Australia. “Property prices are continuing to decrease nationally as higher interest rates bite, with capital city housing markets falling by up to 6 per cent in the past three months. Country and regional city homes had been withstanding the pressure until recently, but CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless says that market is now following the broader downward trend. ‘It is absolutely a buyers’ market,’ Mr Lawless said. ‘Even going back to the last recession in the early 1990s, housing prices weren’t falling this quickly in Sydney.'”

Newshub New Zealand. “House prices have steadily been dropping since they peaked in January this year at a whopping $1,063,765, according to QV. Now just nine months later average house prices are sitting at $973,848. ‘When we’re talking about this cooling…If you actually look at what you paid for it originally, have you lost money on that original sale price?’ asked spokesperson for realestate.co.nz Vanessa Williams. ‘There will be a very small subset of New Zealanders who purchased in January that will need to sell at the moment that is going to be such a small, small percentage and yes, that 7 percent drop will be impacting those specific people.'”

“‘But most people buy properties for the long term and if you actually look at ‘have I lost any money from the day that I purchased my home, I would say about 99 percent of New Zealanders are not losing on the price they paid for their property,’ she said. ‘I think the more people who own their own home and go into their own home, I think that’s such a positive thing for New Zealand that I love that its part of our culture. ‘”

Radio New Zealand. “New figures show the national average asking price for houses has continued to decline. Major property website realestate.co.nz reported asking prices have fallen 7.2 percent since January, when the average hit a record high of over $1m. Spokesperson Vanessa Williams said asking prices have decreased by about $10,000 per month across the motu to $921,187 in September.”

“Though interest rates were predicted to rise further Williams did not believe New Zealanders’ ‘passion for property’ would change a great deal. ‘We’ve had [interest rates] so low for so long that we sometimes forget there is a bit of a normalisation that is going to happen,’ she said. ‘We’re nowhere near where we were in the ’80s.'”

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This Post Has 130 Comments

  1. ‘Prices ‘might go down a little bit, but a crash I consider to be a more than 10% decline in home values, and that seems far-fetched right now’

    Daryl:

    via GIPHY

  2. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Jump to navigation
    Jump to search
    Look up Motu or motu in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.

    Motu or MOTU may refer to:
    Places
    Motu (geography), a reef islet formed by broken coral and sand surrounding an atoll.
    Motu Nao, Marquesas Islands
    Motu Nui, near Easter Island
    Motu Oa, Marquesas Islands
    Motu One (Society Islands), south Pacific Ocean
    Motu Paahi, French Polynesia

    Motu (tribal area), Niue
    Motu River, New Zealand
    Motu, New Zealand, a settlement near Matawai

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motu

  3. ‘I’m concerned that I’m overextending with my potential purchase and that I’m going to end up losing my house in a few years. I’m worried about keeping up with mortgage payments and that if I buy now, houses will plummet within the next year and I’ll be screwed’

    Yer a perma bear Andy.

  4. ‘It’s crushing our margins…Our profits from last year have evaporated, and we’re running at break-even at a number of properties’

    ‘I think this inflationary environment is a more negative to landlords than it is a positive…Most landlords would tell you, ‘I really liked 2021.’ Things were coming back, interest rates were low, things seemed to be going relatively easy; 2022 is a (expletive)’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now?

    1. “…we’re running at break-even at a number of properties”

      There’s always restocking the shelves on the grave shift at Walmart.

  5. ‘most people buy properties for the long term and if you actually look at ‘have I lost any money from the day that I purchased my home, I would say about 99 percent of New Zealanders are not losing on the price they paid for their property,’ she said. ‘I think the more people who own their own home and go into their own home, I think that’s such a positive thing for New Zealand that I love that its part of our culture’

    ‘Spokesperson Vanessa Williams said asking prices have decreased by about $10,000 per month across the motu’

    Is taking a monthly a$$ pounding part of yer culture Vanessa?

  6. ‘At the time Sarkisian was hired by UT in 2021, Austin ‘was a really tight market, with multiple offers and properties selling the first day on the market,’ said Tate, who represented the Sarkisians during their first Austin home search. ‘It was a crazy real estate time’

    You got schlonged Steve. Plus yer team stinks.

    1. The Financial Times
      Credit Suisse Group AG
      Credit Suisse CDS hit record high as shares tumble
      Swiss bank fails to calm concerns as cost of buying its credit default swaps soars
      A Credit Suisse bank branch in Geneva
      Several investors said the exaggerated market moves reflected chaotic trading rather than fundamental fears over Credit Suisse’s solvency
      Robert Smith and Owen Walker in London 21 minutes ago

      The cost of buying insurance against Credit Suisse defaulting on its debt soared to a record high on Monday, as the Swiss bank failed to calm market concerns around the strength of its balance sheet.

      Traders and investors rushed to sell Credit Suisse’s shares and bonds, while buying credit default swaps (CDS), derivatives that act like insurance contracts that pay out if a company reneges on its debts.

      Credit Suisse’s five-year CDS soared by more than 100 basis points on Monday, with some traders quoting it as high as 350bp, according to quotes seen by the Financial Times. The bank’s shares tumbled to historic lows of below SFr3.60, down close to 10 per cent when the market opened.

      The market moves were even more dramatic in the bank’s shorter-term CDS, with one trading desk quoting Credit Suisse’s one-year CDS at 440bp higher than on Friday at 550bp.

      These moves mean that Credit Suisse’s CDS curve inverted on Monday, a phenomenon that happens when investors rush to buy protection against a default in the very near term. While these levels are even higher than where the Swiss bank’s CDS traded in the 2008 financial crisis, a change to the contracts means the derivatives now reference a riskier class of debt that is more exposed to losses if the bank collapses.

      Senior Credit Suisse executives spent the weekend calling the bank’s biggest clients, counterparties and investors in an effort to reassure them about the group’s liquidity and capital position.

      The bank was responding to a sharp spike in CDS spreads last week and rumours on social media about the bank’s financial resilience.

      In a briefing note prepared for executives speaking to investors on Sunday, the bank wrote: “A point of concern for many stakeholders, including speculation by the media, continues to be our capitalisation and financial strength.

      “Our position in this respect is clear. Credit Suisse has a strong capital and liquidity position and balance sheet. Share price developments do not change this fact.”
      …

      1. The Financial Times
        FT Alphaville Credit Suisse Group AG
        Credit Suisse and the CDS Streisand effect
        Internet backchat rattles Paradeplatz
        Bryce Elder yesterday

        This weekend we have mostly been looking at Credit Suisse charts that look like a misfiring firework. Here’s another one, via Google Trends.

        Need a quick recap of the story? It began on Friday, when Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner committed a memo:

        “No doubt there will be more noise in the markets and the press between now and the end of October. All I can tell you is to remain disciplined and stay as close as ever to your clients and colleagues.

        I know it’s not easy to remain focused amid the many stories you read in the media – in particular, given the many factually inaccurate statements being made.

        That said, I trust that you are not confusing our day-to-day stock price performance with the strong capital base and liquidity position of the bank.”

        Calming the mood is what it didn’t. In rushed the Reddit degens:

        “Conversation
        Wall Street Silver
        @WallStreetSilv
        Credit Suisse is probably going bankrupt … $CS

        The collapse in Credit Suisse’s share price is of great concern. From $14.90 in Feb 2021, to $3.90 currently.

        And with P/B=0.22, markets are saying it’s insolvent and probably bust.

        2008 moment soon ?
        Systemic risk bank.”

        . . . followed by the messageboard polymaths. 

        “Conversation
        Dominic Cummings
        @Dominic2306
        [Credit Suisse CDS misfiring firework plot]”

        Then came the shitposters. So many shitposters.

        “More like Debit Suisse

        & cetera”

        In such circumstances it becomes very tricky to separate the signal from the noise.
        …

    2. Europe Markets
      Credit Suisse ‘may or may not’ be a Lehman moment but something is going to break, Sri-Kumar says
      Published Mon, Oct 3 2022 3:43 AM EDT
      Updated 8 Min Ago
      Jihye Lee
      Key Points
      – “I think the Federal Reserve is going to have to face the consequences of a credit event” if it were to occur, Komal Sri-Kumar told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. “Something is going to break.”
      – A long-time critic of the Fed’s approach to the rise of prices, Sri-Kumar said the latest events surrounding Credit Suisse shows the “real danger of having miscalculated inflation for such a long time.”

      Komal Sri-Kumar, the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, believes global central banks could soon face an important “credit event” after hastily raising rates, with Credit Suisse’s financial health a possible contender.

      “I think the Federal Reserve is going to have to face the consequences of a credit event” if it were to occur, Komal Sri-Kumar told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday. “Something is going to break.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/credit-suisse-is-not-about-to-cause-a-lehman-moment-sri-kumar-says.html

    3. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Equities
      European stocks move lower after streak of quarterly declines
      JPMorgan warns of rising volatility and increased credit market stress
      The stock exchange in Frankfurt
      European bank shares are seen as particularly exposed to the health of the region’s economy
      Harriet Clarfelt and Ian Johnston
      39 minutes ago

      European shares and US stock futures made an unsteady start to October, struggling to reverse course after Wall Street posted its longest streak of quarterly losses since the 2008 financial crisis.

      The regional Stoxx Europe 600 gauge lost 0.7 per cent in morning trading on Monday, while contracts tracking the S&P 500 added 0.1 per cent ahead of the New York open. In Asian markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8 per cent.

      Those moves came after the S&P closed 1.5 per cent lower on Friday, capping a third straight quarter of declines with a loss of 5.3 per cent as equity markets buckled under the tension of central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, turning the screws on monetary policy.

      The Stoxx also closed out its longest run of quarterly losses in 14 years.

      “A rapid tightening in US monetary conditions — rising borrowing rates and the dollar — has been conducive to building financial stress in the past and is now becoming a key vulnerability,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, adding that “recent weeks have shown a substantial rise in overall volatility and increased credit market stress”.

      European bank shares, seen as particularly exposed to the health of the economy, dropped on Monday with a Stoxx sub-index sliding more than 2 per cent in morning trade. Credit Suisse was down 7.7 per cent after the Swiss bank moved over the weekend to reassure investors about its financial strength. Shares in French bank Société Générale slipped more than 1 per cent.
      …

    4. The Financial Times
      EU financial regulation
      Europe faces ‘severe risks’ to financial system, regulators warn
      Ukraine war could create combination of slow growth, falling prices and market stress, according to ESRB
      Christine Lagarde, chair of the European Systemic Risk Board, which said the energy crisis had put the financial system in a precarious position
      Martin Arnold in Frankfurt
      September 29 2022

      Europe’s top financial regulators have issued an unprecedented warning about “severe risks to financial stability” after concluding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could create a toxic combination of an economic downturn, falling asset prices and financial market stress.

      The European Systemic Risk Board, which is responsible for monitoring and preventing dangers to the region’s financial system, issued the alert after meeting last week and deciding the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine had put the financial system in a precarious position. This is the first “general warning” about risk the ESRB has issued since its creation in 2010 on the eve of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

      The authority, which is chaired by European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde, called on regulators in the 30 countries it oversees to prepare for a potential crisis by requiring the financial institutions they supervise to build up bigger buffers of capital and provisions that can absorb losses.

      The ESRB’s warning was agreed on September 22, several days before the new UK government’s unorthodox fiscal plans caused turmoil in financial markets and forced the Bank of England to intervene by buying bonds. People briefed on ESRB discussions said the UK’s problems were not part of the discussions, however they acknowledged that they were likely to now be an additional worry for regulators in Europe.

      Concerns about the health of Europe’s financial system have increased since the Ukraine conflict pushed energy prices up, driving inflation to multi-decade highs, prompting central banks to raise interest rates aggressively and triggering a sell-off in bond and equity markets.

      “Rising geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in energy prices, causing financial distress to businesses and households that are still recovering from the adverse economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic,” the ESRB said. “In addition, higher-than-expected inflation is tightening financial conditions.”

      It identified three key sources of systemic risk: “The deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook, risks to financial stability stemming from a (possible) sharp asset price correction and the implications of such developments for asset quality.”

      The housing market — a recurring concern for the ESRB — was still a potential weakness, it said. “Rising mortgage rates and the worsening in debt-servicing capacity due to a decline in real household income can be expected to exert downward pressure on house prices and lead to a materialisation of cyclical risks,” it warned.
      …

  10. Hey Billy, audiences aren’t going to pay good money to see “woke” propaganda packaged as “entertainment.”

    ‘Straight people just didn’t show up’: Bros creator Billy Eichner blasts ‘homophobic weirdos’ after his gay romcom disappoints with just $4.8m at box office despite rave reviews and $22m budget

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11273681/Billy-Eichner-says-hes-disappointed-Bros-finished-fourth-place-opening-weekend.html

    1. “rave reviews”

      The movie critics at Salon, the Guardian, Washington Post and NY Times love watching two guys pound each other? Well color me surprised!

      I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this movie will have the greatest discrepancy between critic score and audience score of all time. Something like 99% to 2%.

    2. Bros creator Billy Eichner blasts ‘homophobic weirdos’ after his gay romcom disappoints with just $4.8m at box office

      These guys actually believe their own propaganda. LOL! I’ll be even Antifa said “pass” when they saw the movie posters.

      1. Don Ho was a pig. As youts, my cousin and I did the usual Hawaiian tourist stuff and had a picture taken with him. He tried to stick his tongue down my throat. My cousin, too. 🤢

    1. Finance ·Housing
      Wall Street: U.S. housing market to see the second biggest home price decline since the Great Depression
      BY Lance Lambert
      October 3, 2022 at 2:37 AM PDT

      National home price declines are uncommon, but it does occur on occasion. It happened in the early 1980s, then again in the early 1990s, and most notably in the years following the 2008 housing crash. That said, sharp home price declines are incredibly rare: Only the Great Depression and the Great Recession saw nationwide home prices fall in the double-digits range.

      That history—or lack of history—is why recent outlooks published by Wall Street titans are raising eyebrows. Not only is there a building consensus on Wall Street that we’ve entered into a period of falling home prices, but there’s also a consensus it’ll be the second sharpest home price decline since the Great Depression.

      Let’s take a look at where financial giants expect U.S. home prices to head next.

      Last week, Morgan Stanley finally joined the housing bear crowd. Heading forward, the investment bank now expects U.S. home prices to fall 7% by the end of 2023. On one hand, that’s far smaller than the 27% peak-to-trough decline the country experienced between 2006 and 2012. On the other hand, it’s twice as large as the 3.1% peak-trough decline posted in the early ’90s. In fact, if Morgan Stanely’s forecast comes to fruition, it’d mark the second sharpest drop since the Great Depression.

      The culprit? Spiking mortgage rates, coupled with unprecedented home price growth, has put affordability into the upper bounds of history.

      “If we assume a 7% mortgage rate, affordability looks materially worse than today. And the pace of its deceleration has already more than doubled compared to almost any time in history,” writes Morgan Stanley researchers. “The positive takeaway—which we think puts the magnitude of this [7% forecasted home price] drop into perspective—is that this decrease would only bring home prices back to where they were in January 2022. That is still 32% above where home prices were in March 2020.”
      …
      https://fortune.com/2022/10/03/housing-market-wall-street-home-prices-predictions-moodys-goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-fitch-ratings/

      1. Did they just pull the 7% price decline by year-end 2023 figure out of their @$$es? Prices are already down by more than that in several markets formerly known as bubbly.

          1. I know those Wall Street boyz are too busy raking in $$$ to pay much attention to what is happening out West. But it looks bad if current data already exceeds the extent of your prediction for the end of next year.

            From Bloomberg:

            “The sharpest correction in August was in San Jose, California, down 13% from its 2022 peak, followed by San Francisco at almost 11% and Seattle at 9.9%, the company said.”

  13. Captured governments are working hand in glove with their bankster pimps to lure the gullible & stupid into signing up for their own financial ruin.

    Martin Lewis demands Government DELETES ‘irresponsible’ tweet suggesting first-time buyers in London on a £30,000 salary can buy a £500,000 terraced home

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11274343/Martin-Lewis-demands-Government-DELETES-tweet-claiming-London-time-buyers-buy-500k-home.html

    Money saving guru Martin Lewis today rubbished claims from the Government that prospective homebuyers earning £30,000-per-year could purchase a property in London thanks to the Treasury’s latest tax cuts.

    The consumer champion and Good Morning Britain presenter took to Twitter to urge the Treasury to delete a tweet that said first-time buyers could soon snap up property in the capital after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng outlined the Growth Plan.

    1. It’s like the series, Wild Kingdom. The young are the slowest and become the predator’s meal of least resistance.

  14. Whistling past the graveyard won’t stop what’s coming, Daryl.

    “Prices ‘might go down a little bit, but a crash I consider to be a more than 10% decline in home values, and that seems far-fetched right now,’ says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for Redfin.”

  15. Not coincidentally, the biggest house price crashes are in Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned municipalities & states.

    “Home prices in the US have taken a turn and are now posting the biggest monthly declines since 2009. The sharpest correction in August was in San Jose, California, down 13% from its 2022 peak, followed by San Francisco at almost 11% and Seattle at 9.9%, the company said.”

  16. I think the actual sales are down because interest rates have gone up. It makes homes less affordable to the buyer pool,’ said Diane Hanke, a real estate agent with Bray Real Estate.”

    Diane just earned the big bucks with that penetrating analysis of the housing market.

  17. “‘It’s crushing our margins,’ Verma said. ‘Our profits from last year have evaporated, and we’re running at break-even at a number of properties. There’s some people who think landlords must be making money. No. We’ve only gone up 12 to 14%, and our expenses have gone up 30%.’”

    Gosh, maybe over-paying for rental properties isn’t such a brilliant investment strategy after all.

  18. “The worst of the price slashing is likely over in Kelowna’s confusing and rapidly changing housing market.

    Dream on, REIC shill.

  19. His name was Seth Rich.

    The Seth Rich Case: The FBI’s Other Laptop Scandal

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/10/the_seth_rich_case_the_fbis_other_laptop_scandal.html

    This is the tale of two laptops, one tale definitely damaging to the Democrats, one potentially so. What they have in common is that the FBI did its damnedest to bury both.

    For all the hubbub about the Hunter Biden laptop, there has been little talk about the laptop owned by DNC data analyst Seth Rich. In the way of brief summary, the 27-year-old Rich was beaten and then shot by unknown assailants on a Washington, D.C. street in the early morning hours of July 10, 2016. His attackers appear to have taken nothing—not his wallet, not his phone, not his watch.

  20. How’s that vote for globalist Quislings working out for ya, Kati with an i?

    ‘I’ve given up on all my dreams’: Dread in Germany deepens over war in Ukraine

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/i-ve-given-up-on-all-my-dreams-dread-in-germany-deepens-over-war-in-ukraine/ar-AA12x1VX?ocid=EMMX&cvid=07c3193ea29a48999abb493aafa86cbd

    Kati Pannwitz spends her evenings at home alone in a darkened and unheated apartment, watching old movies while worrying about the new reality of life in a country that is being drawn ever closer to the war in Ukraine.

    Surging inflation and fears about an energy crisis are hitting home for Pannwitz, 34, taking a heavy toll on her finances and the futures of both her and her 17-year-old son.

    No more vacations, no more trips abroad, no more going out, no more saving and an outlook that has grown increasingly bleak for Pannwitz — and millions of fellow Germans — since Russian armed forces invaded Ukraine seven months ago.

    1. Pannwitz, 34, taking a heavy toll on her finances and the futures of both her and her 17-year-old son.

      How does one say baby momma in Deutsch?

    2. “It’s all looking grim right now with no silver lining on the horizon anywhere. It’s all falling apart right in front of our eyes, and we’re back to where we were during the Cold War with an East-West nuclear standoff,” he said. “People are scared, and don’t know how they’re going to get through this. …

      “It’s hard for a lot of us to understand how we’re getting sucked into so much destruction for Ukraine. A lot of people don’t get it.”

      It’s easy to understand, Joerg: you’re a vassal state and are expected to absorb most of the economic impact of the war.

    2. A shack supposedly worth $772k, and there are blankets covering the windows rather than blinds or curtains. 🙂

      1. After you said that, I looked it up. That’s in Ponderosa Trails. It’s the relatively newer shacks just south of I 17/I 40. Man has that place gone to the dogs. On the bright side, that’s maybe $200-300k higher than 2006. Sound lending!

        Wait. It’s a pre-foreclosure that has finally made it to foreclosure.com. Never mind…

      2. covering the windows

        The blue one in the bedroom is a shower curtain from the Dollar Store. Don’t ask me how I know.

  22. A reader sent these in:

    Listed my home 3 weeks ago to test the waters. Lowered the price 2 times (-15%) since no one hit the ask. Now priced flat to the price I paid in 2015. Nothing selling in all of the areas we’re snooping around in. Will pull it soon but sure was an interesting experience. #calgary

    https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIO/status/1576726452128841728

    Ron Butler

    The Mortgage and Real Estate business is so frigging slow right now. I know a few Brokers and RE Agents will chirp up: “Well I am busy!!” Ok…. whatever….. you’re busy this week with 1 or 2 files. 95% are very slow. Rookies checking INDEED. And it AIN’T getting better soon.

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1575171686810284046

    Replying to @ronmortgageguy
    I’ve been in for 18+ years in BC and I’ve never witnessed this dramatic a reversal. It’s incredible. I agree with you, not changing anytime soon…

    https://twitter.com/inquisitive_joe/status/1575178573077688320

    Ron Butler

    One Of Canada’s Biggest Private Lenders Halts Investor Redemptions. In other words: you want your money back you have to wait until we’re ready. Romspen is one of the BIG providers of non-bank Real Estate Lending in Canada with a loan portfolio over $3B. Mainly Commercial.

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1575912022642151424

    ‘UK investors dump Aussie mortgage bonds in cash scramble’. Interesting 🤔

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1576723111474384896

    “We are going to have millions of people sitting on a mortgage ticking time bomb”…

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1576572716387180545

    Do you work in the real estate industry? (realtor, mortgage lender, contractor, etc)

    If so, what’s your boots-on-the-ground assessment of the unfolding situation?

    How fast are things cooling? (if at all)

    How concerned are you about the coming year? (if at all)

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1576621365020356608

    Gentle reminder

    If you think only UK pension funds are in trouble.. think twice

    US funds

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1576482178652811265

    1. “The Mortgage and Real Estate business is so frigging slow right now. I know a few Brokers and RE Agents will chirp up: “Well I am busy!!” Ok…. whatever….. you’re busy this week with 1 or 2 files. 95% are very slow. Rookies checking INDEED. And it AIN’T getting better soon.”

      I heard a couple of the real estate companies are trying to get into asset management. It was bad enough that Barbie thought she was qualified to sell houses. Now she wants to invest your money for you.

      1. “The Mortgage and Real Estate business is so frigging slow right now. I know a few Brokers and RE Agents will chirp up: “Well I am busy!!” Ok…. whatever….. you’re busy this week with 1 or 2 files. 95% are very slow. Rookies checking INDEED. And it AIN’T getting better soon.”

        Those are the goobers… the dumbest of dumb and there are a lot of them out there. They’re the first that will agree that housing prices are tanking….. except where they live.

        Pure gold this stuff….. pure gold.

        2. I fully expect lots of realtors divorces in the next few years. I’d bet most of them just urinated the money away thinking it would never end, vacays to FL, jewelry, HELOC on the primary, a couple of rental properties….

      2. asset management

        Or property management since sellers would rather lease their properties rather than give them away?

          1. which has patented the “real estate planner” concept

            Just as suspected. A published patent application: US 20220261932 A1 2022-08-18. A business method patent? How are those even doing these days?

          4. “How are those even doing these days?”

            The last metric I saw was something like 10-20% allowance rate.

          5. 10-20% allowance rate

            A huge waste of time, money and resources by the time any of those issued patents are enforced.

          6. patented the “real estate planner” concept

            Ridiculous. How about Grilled Cheese Truck and Financial Planner?

    2. A reader sent these in:

      I like these! I’ve discovered a number of good Twitter accounts to follow. Thank you, Reader!!

    3. Do you work in the real estate industry? (realtor, mortgage lender, contractor, etc)

      If so, what’s your boots-on-the-ground assessment of the unfolding situation?

      How fast are things cooling? (if at all)

      How concerned are you about the coming year? (if at all)

      A reply to this tweet is echoing rumblings I’ve heard elsewhere: “Just saw something that I thought was interesting. An assignable loan. So the new buyer get the old mortgage interest rate. And probably an additional mortgage at higher rates for the rest of the balance. Think we might start seeing a bunch of that.”

      2. Via another reply: “Angel Oak Mortgage Inc., the publicly traded non-QM mortgage REIT, late Friday disclosed it had received a two-week extension on a financing facility it has with Barclays Bank. The new termination date is Oct. 14.” @IMFpubs

      3. I remember those. That used to be a thing. Was on the way out by mid 90’s, also remember pre-pay penalties, i bet those will be coming back too.

    1. Imagine living in a big mansion that any degenerate criminal can drive on whenever they please, and you have Encino. My son’s friend lives there, their house has been broken into several times.

  24. Turkey inflation at new 24-year high of 83% after rate cuts | DW News
    Oct 3, 2022 Inflation in Turkey climbed to a new 24-year high of 83.45% in September, according to official data, after the central bank surprised markets by cutting rates twice in the last two months.

    Turkey’s repeated reductions in rates come at the insistence of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who believes — contrary to well-established economic principles — that reducing interest rates can slow inflation, rather than fuel it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyzsgpkCvtc

    4:19.

    1. Inflation in Turkey climbed to a new 24-year high of 83.45% in September, according to official data

      I wonder what the real number is? 150%?

      The whole dang world must miss Donald by now

      1. The whole dang world must miss Donald by now
        No, none of the “educated” white boomers I know miss him. They are fine with everything. Of course some of them think the Government should help them more (more stimulus checks.) UnF’inBelievable.

        1. Educated white boomers=licensed professionals like engineers, architects, doctors, lawyers, accountants etc.

          Deadweight like teachers and other assorted basketweavers dont count.

        2. I was talking about other countries that, like Turkey, are being eaten alive by Brandon’s inflationary policies.

        3. In Nov 1980, 40% of the country – Democrat voters – surveyed the landscape that was the disaster of four years of Jimmy Carter, and they said “this is great, I’d like another helping please”. Everyone else looked on in horror and begged to make it stop.

          1. Yeah, it’s crazy. I saw it then and I see it all the time. My latest theory is that the thinking is “I know this is terrible, but imagine how much worse it would be if X were in the office! Thank gawd we had the guy I voted for.”

          2. Ideology is a powerful thing. For example: Those parents who had a child die from the jab and who said: “It was the right thing to do, and I would do it again.”

            Losing a child has be at the top of one’s horror list, yet those people put ideology above their children’s lives.

            Or consider the German agriculture minister, who said that global hunger was not a good enough reason to not go green.

            WIth these people outcomes do not matter. It is and will always be about the ideology, no matter how nonsensical it is. Hence, why we now have doctors who with a straight face will say that men can get pregnant or that the jab is safe and effective.

          3. I watched some videos on the damaged actress who said “I would do it again.” One said it was the ‘covid cult” and she was signalling to the cult members she was still loyal. She even said more than once “I don’t know why I’m making this video.” What else would explain this bizarre act?

          4. What else would explain this bizarre act?

            One would think that a normal person would be livid: “I trusted them, they said it was safe and anyone who said it wasn’t was a conspiracy nut; but look what happened to me! They lied to me! What was I thinking? The evidence was right in front of me!”

            But no, after being maimed they say they would do it again. It’s like surviving a 737 MAX crash and saying you would fly it again.

            How can one fix that level of stupidity?

  25. ‘I think active listings are up because people have decided to go forward with life. I think the actual sales are down because interest rates have gone up. It makes homes less affordable to the buyer pool,’ said Diane Hanke, a real estate agent with Bray Real Estate.”>/em>

    Bray Real Estate…. And Diane The Debt Donkey is their speaks for them. This stuff writes itself now.

    Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% On Soaring Price Reductions And Burgeoning Inventory As Demand Plummets Across Colorado

    https://www.movoto.com/co/80234/market-trends/

  26. ‘I think active listings are up because people have decided to go forward with life. I think the actual sales are down because interest rates have gone up. It makes homes less affordable to the buyer pool,’ said Diane Hanke, a real estate agent with Bray Real Estate.”

    Bray Real Estate…. And Diane The Debt Donkey speaks for them. This stuff writes itself now.

    Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 12% On Soaring Price Reductions And Burgeoning Inventory As Demand Plummets Across Colorado

    https://www.movoto.com/co/80234/market-trends/

    1. When I clear my history my name and Email on the sign in for this blog get cleared too, so I scroll back to an old thread reenter and post something. Used to post … That dawg won’t hunt, sometimes just… Dawg. Today was my first frog though, if I thought anyone would see it I would have tried to think of something better to say. 🙂

      1. boo fahh-king hooo.

        Your effort is best served by file suit against the realtor, appraiser and mortgage pimp that burned you.

          1. sue him for all the PPP fraud

            I thought about that for a moment. I conclude it is a logic disconnect. Nothin personal.

        2. Good luck with that. In alleging fraud, a party must plead with particularity the circumstances constituting fraud.

  30. ‘current numbers are good for homebuyers compared to what was seen during the heated market the past couple of years’

    Every little sh$thole you never heard of – rocket go now.

  31. ‘Even going back to the last recession in the early 1990s, housing prices weren’t falling this quickly in Sydney’

    ‘We’re nowhere near where we were in the ’80s’

    Bidda bidda biddah!

    Who will give me 1979 prices for this shanty? Going once.

    Alright, 1976 boys, that was a good yeeeah! Oh bugger…

  32. ‘The biggest factor in property price inflation has been the availability of mortgages,’ said Jamie Thompson of Openshaw-based Jamie Thompson Mortgages. ‘More and more lenders increasing their maximum loan sizes and making their criteria more flexible in the past 12 months has been a major factor in pushing prices higher and higher. Now that dozens of lenders have withdrawn all products, this could be the catalyst for a cliff edge drop in property prices’

    No!

    1. Oh no, not the Chinese?
      Not the cash buyers?
      Not the institutional?

      God another conspiracy theory is a FACT.

    4. Lawrence Patton McDonald (April 1, 1935 – September 1, 1983) was an American politician and a member of the United States House of Representatives, representing Georgia’s 7th congressional district as a Democrat from 1975 until he was killed while a passenger on board Korean Air Lines Flight 007 when it was shot down by Soviet interceptors.

      Quotes

      [T]he drive of the Rockefellers and their allies is to create a one-world government, combining super-capitalism and Communism under the same tent, all under their control … Do I mean conspiracy? Yes I do. I am convinced there is such a plot, international in scope, generations old in planning, and incredibly evil in intent.

      McDonald, Lawrence P. Introduction. The Rockefeller File. By Gary Allen. Seal Beach, CA: ’76 Press, 1976. ISBN 0-89245-001-0. Quotes by Pat Buchanan and Others on the New World Order. Archived from the original on 2007-10-10. Retrieved on 2007-10-10.. The Internet Brigade; retrieved August 24, 2009.

      He says, Sure we’ve been working it, sure we’ve been collaborating with communism, yes we’re working with global accommodation, yes, we’re working for world government. But the only thing I object to, is that we’ve kept it a secret.

      Speaking of Carroll Quigley, a history professor at Georgetown University, “Larry McDonald on the NWO May 1983PT2” on YouTube

      https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Larry_McDonald

    1. Global economy
      UN accuses richest countries of ‘imprudent gamble’ in inflation fight
      Report says policies of high interest rates and austerity risk triggering global recession that will hit developing nations hardest
      People carry gas cylinders bought at a distribution centre in Colombo
      Richard Partington Economics
      Mon 3 Oct 2022 12.29 EDT
      Last modified on Mon 3 Oct 2022 16.16 EDT

      The interest rate rises and austerity the world’s richest nations are using to fight sky-high inflation risk a painful global recession that would hurt developing countries most, the UN has warned.

      In its annual trade and development report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) said a drive by major central banks to ramp up rates in response to soaring prices represented an “imprudent gamble” that could dangerously backfire.
      …
      https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/03/un-accuses-richest-nations-of-imprudent-gamble-in-inflation-fight

  36. Not only are realtors liars but they’re…..well, liars.
    “New listing”

    Property Price
    Date Event Price Price/Sq Ft Source
    10/03/2022 Listed $425,000 $277 Tallahassee
    08/30/2022 Listing removed – – Tallahassee
    07/11/2022 Price Changed $500,000 $327 Tallahassee
    06/16/2022 Listed $650,000 $425 Tallahassee

  37. “The prevalence of corporate buyers in the local housing market may be leveling off. Median home prices in August decreased for the third month in a row to $799,000, according to CoreLogic. While down from the all-time high of $850,000 in May. ‘It seems like it may be coming to an end now,’ Thomas Malone, the CoreLogic economist, said of the investor surge in the market. Investors can be more sensitive to interest rate increases and more hesitant to jump in, he said.”

    What I would like to know is, what happens when investors all jump out at the very same time? Hopefully we’ll soon find out!

        1. “Did you get that from Kung Fu?”

          Here’s the quote: “There are three ways to make a living in this business, be first, be smarter, or cheat.”

          Name the movie. 🙂

    1. The Financial Times
      The Big Read Chinese politics & policy
      China’s property crash: ‘a slow-motion financial crisis’
      In the first part of a series, the impact of falling house prices is spreading to local government finances and the broader economy
      James Kynge in London, Sun Yu in Beijing and Thomas Hale in Shanghai 3 hours ago

      Lucy Wang finds herself at the sharp end of crisis seeping through China’s property market. She once dreamt that buying an under-construction apartment in the northern city of Zhengzhou would be her ticket to a new life.

      For a young woman from a farming village, the Rmb250,000 ($34,839) down payment she used to secure the property represented a big outlay. Half of the money had come from her parents, who had put aside years of meagre savings from selling the potatoes and wheat they grew on the family plot.

      Everything seemed set fair until October last year, when building activity on her block of flats suddenly stopped. At first, she said, the developer of the Meiling International House was evasive on when construction might resume. Then its representatives started spouting reams of unlikely excuses.

      In July Wang’s hope died. The local housing bureau told her and other buyers that their money had been “misused”. “I have lost faith in the developer,” she said. “This has ruined my life.”
      …

    1. Markets
      Markets Now
      The Stock Market Is Rallying Monday. Why the Next Move Is Likely Lower.
      By Jacob Sonenshine
      Oct. 3, 2022 1:03 pm ET

      The S&P 500 SPX +2.59% has dropped so much that even Monday’s upswing doesn’t mean the stock market is out of the woods.

      The index dropped more than 1% Friday to a level well below 3636, and is down more than 16% from the peak of a summer rally. Previously, that level had been “support,” one where enough buyers had come in to send it higher in mid-June and even a few times in September. The buyers weren’t there this time around, and many may have turned into sellers once they lost confidence in the market’s ability to hold that level. These dynamics signal waning optimism in the stock market’s outlook, as markets are still trying to figure out how much economic damage will result from higher interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve, which is trying to reduce high inflation.
      …
      https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-gain-today-technicals-lower-51664816436

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