A weekend topic starting with Bloomberg. "A changing of the guard among the biggest buyers…
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From the 1st 14 minute video:
Real Estate Market Shift | August 2022 Market Update | Rocklin Real Estate Market
Oct 2, 2022 Interest Rates reached 7% and just made a slight move down to the high 6% but what is this rate hike doing to the Real Estate Market here in Rocklin California. In this video, I am going to share the numbers for August and also what we are seeing with our clients as well as what we are hearing from the builders in the area.
The second 5 minute video:
The Real Estate Market is Crashing
Andrew Kimball
Oct 2, 2022 There is going to be a real estate market crash, here are 3 reasons why.
The third 5 minute video:
Phoenix Median Single-Family House Price DOWN $40,000 in 4 Months
John Wake
Oct 2, 2022
The last 6 minute video:
Housing prices: ‘We’re looking at 10-20% discount off retail prices,’ realtor says
Oct 3, 2022 Kinloch Partners Co-Founder and CEO Bruce McNeilage gauges the financial temperament of the single family housing market, as well as looking at home prices, construction costs, and rising mortgage rates.
3 reasons why
His last 2 reasons favor low inventory, which typically favors higher prices as we hear ad nauseum.
The Cayman Islands real estate market is finally beginning to slow down after several years of a runaway sector where high demand and a shortage of homes to buy led to very high prices. According to a local real estate agent, both the value and number of sales fell during the third quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, first-time home buyers in Cayman continue to face sky-high property prices and the number of properties available is still lower than before the COVID pandemic.
According to Michael Joseph, of Property Cayman, the total value of sales between 1 July and 30 Sept was just over $198 million compared to well over $262 million during the same period last year, a 24.5% decline. The number of transactions also fell from 274 last year to 185, a drop of almost 32.5%.
But given the continued demand by the wealthy for property here, Joseph said that a “re-calibration” in the Cayman property market was not unexpected and there was no need for panic.
GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (KJCT) – The housing market has been all over the place since the pandemic started. One month its a sellers market then it becomes a buyers market. But, today, neither one of those groups is seeing a favorable shift.
I went to Coldwell Banker Distinctive Properties today and sat down with a local realtor, Skylar Kraai. One of the main topics we discussed was interest rates, which is important to this story. Over the past year, interest rates have more than doubled. In 2021, they were at 2.88% for a 30 year mortgage. Now, they have ballooned to over 6.5% in just one year. Again, not in favor of the buyer or seller. Skylar said, “the demand for purchasing properties has decreased due to high interest rates.” That goes hand-in-hand with a recent housing report that says sales for houses decreased 22% for the month of August. That signals the end of the impressive buyers market streak that went on for most of the pandemic.
So, what can you do to get yourself into a new home? Well, Skylar says you can follow these simple tips. “Number 1: have the seller pay for your closing costs. Number 2: you can save money by cancelling unnecessary subscriptions. Lastly, find someone you trust to live with you to bring down that monthly overhead.”
That signals the end of the impressive buyers market streak that went on for most of the pandemic.
Correction: It is the end of the ridiculous seller’s market.
Here’s some advice:
1) Pay your own closing costs. Then you won’t be paying taxes, and interest on them for 30 years. Tell the seller to reduce the price to suit you.
2) Treat yourself to a nice dinner out with a partner you find attractive. The seller can’t afford to do this.
3} Be self reliant. Buy a modest house that you can actually afford on your own.
4. Rent a house for half the monthly cost of buying it. Buy it later after prices crater for 70% less.
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY On Soaring Mortgage Defaults And Record Low Housing Demand
As prices for PC memory kits and solid state drives (SSDs) continue to fall, NAND flash and memory chip makers are initiating what TrendForce has deemed a “rare production reduction.” These are significant scale backs—Micron last month announced a “nearly 50 percent wafer fab equipment capex cut” compared to last year, while Kioxia has followed suit by saying it will reduce NAND flash capacity utilization at its fabs by 30 percent.
The good news for consumers is that it could take some time for this to be felt in the market place. Last week we wrote about DDR5 and DDR4 memory being headed for big price drops in the near future, based on TrendForce’s forecast, and shortly before that we reported on plummeting SSD prices as well.
It’s all for the same general reason—an oversupply of chips (DRAM and NAND flash, respectively). What led to the oversupplies is a little more nuanced.
“Memory pricing began to decline from 4Q21 due to weakening demand for certain consumer electronics. Coupled with the impact of rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and pandemic policies, demand in peak season was weak, resulting in inventory pressure that has extended from the buyer side to manufacturers,” TrendForce explains.
On the supplier side, the market situation for NAND flash is even more severe than DRAM. Suppliers are essentially selling wafers at cost, and could soon be selling at a loss if the situation doesn’t improve in a hurry. Meanwhile, DRAM wafers are still being sold for a profit, and so it remains to be seen if the planned production reduction will be as steep as it is for NAND flash memory chips.
“It is imperative to reduce bit supply in the NAND flash field due to the large number of competitors and the fact that manufacturers have yet to encroach on the physical limits of manufacturing,” TrendForce states.
That said, the market research firm says both DRAM and NAND flash will be “greatly oversupplied” throughout all of next year, and that the pressure to reduce production will “continue to accelerate” in the first half of 2023. How successful it ends up being on the supplier side depends in part on whether other chip makers join Micron and Kioxia in scaling back production.
who would have ever guessed that something that is referred to as “weed’ in fact grows like a weed.
Wa happened to my shortage?
FWIW, a glut of memory chips doesn’t necessarily mean a glut of other chips, like processors. Also worth keeping in mind that the chips that are under your car’s hood are different than the ones in your phone or laptop. They have to be much more rugged and better able to withstand vibrations and high temperatures.
Shares in Porsche have dropped beneath the price they commanded when the sports car firm hit the market three trading days ago. Porsche launched onto the stock market last Thursday with a €75 billion ($72 bn) valuation that raised $19.5 bn ($18.7 bn), around half go which will go to Volkswagen, who will use it to fund EV development.
Shares opened at €82.50 ($80.87) last week then rose slightly in the initial hours after the IPO, making Porsche a bright spot in a financial market feeling jittery about an inbound recession. But proving that even Porsche can’t buck the market, shares in the automaker fell to €81 ($79.40) when trading resumed on Monday before recovering slightly to €81.48 ($79.87).
The neighbor across the street finally got his new car after a five month wait.
EV development????????
FFS might as well just burn that money in a fire. What a waste.
Will Porsche have to shut down this Fall and Winter due to a lack of power?
Home prices are dropping like it’s 2009
HousingWire|17 hours ago
Home prices are now posting the biggest monthly declines since January 2009, according to the latest Mortgage Monitor report from Black Knight.
Why that’s savagely unhealthy…
Credit Suisse Market Turmoil Heightens After Memo Backfires
Credit Suisse’s market capitalization has dropped to around 10.4 billion Swiss francs, meaning any share sale would be highly dilutive to longtime holders. The market value was above 30 billion francs as recently as March 2021.
“Somehow they have to come up with a few billion to cover the cost of the restructuring,” said Andreas Venditti, a banks analyst at Vontobel. “Management will try at all costs to avoid a dilutive share issuance but they are a forced seller right now.”
For as long as anyone can remember, mangroves and draining swamps protected the Florida coastline from severe storms. But as oceanfront property heated up, so did the demand for clearing out natural protective resources and building dangerously close to water.
The new builds, according to the Grist, placed tens of thousands of homes directly in the path of the Hurricane’s destruction.
“You have a natural wetland marsh,” Stephen Strader, an associate professor at Villanova University who studies the societal forces behind disasters, told the Grist. “The primary function of those regions is to protect the inland areas from things like storm surge. You’re building on top of it, you’re replacing it with subdivisions and homes. What do we expect to see?”
According to the Grist, the crux of Florida’s development issues lie with a strategy called “dredge-and-fill.” Essentially, developers dig up land from the bottom of rivers and swamps and pile it all up to make artificial land masses for building.
The issue is that when you have storms, you no longer have the rivers or swamps for protection. But, what’s worse, the homes are right up against the water, putting them at greater risk.
Why that’s our chickens, they’ve come home to roost!
Tens of thousands of Florida residents have likely been left financially ruined because they did not have flood insurance before Hurricane Ian devastated wide swaths of the Sunshine State, according to experts.
Fewer than one-third of the 1.8 million households in those nine counties have policies with the National Flood Insurance Program, according to Politico. That means some 1.3 million households do not have federally insured flood coverage. “Ian could financially ruin thousands of families in Florida,” Mark Friedlander of the Insurance Information Institute told Politico. “There’s no better way to say it.”
Amber Thorne is a resident of Seminole County. She told the Wall Street Journal that her two-bedroom house was flooded after a nearby creek overflowed as the hurricane passed through the area. Thorne told the Journal that her home is not covered by flood insurance.
“I’m regretting not having it,” she said. According to the Journal, 97% of homes in Seminole County don’t have flood insurance.
The Journal cited statistics provided by Neptune Flood, a private flood insurance provider, which found that a whopping 98% of residents in Orange County, which includes Orlando, are not covered.
I would think they need insurance for a loan if it’s in a designated flood plain.
I too find this very confusing because because can’t believe 98% of the loans are paid off or were not sold to Government entities.
1. you are not in a flood plain. you can’t buy flood insurance if you aren’t in a flood plain.
2. your home is paid off
a. flood insurance is expensive and doesn’t cover much (maxes at 250k structure).
I”m find with people rolling the dice with no (or little) insurance on their homes. You make a bet and sometimes it comes up snake eyes.
BUT DON’T WHINE ABOUT IT.
You saved 10’s of 1000’s of dollars over the years not buying the proper insurance so no whining and no bailouts. (yeah, banks too).
Anyone who wanted to sell their house in 2022 rushed to do it earlier this year when the signs were clear that mortgage rates would be rising, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “That’s contributing to how dead it is right now.”
A United Nations agency warned on Monday of the risk of a monetary policy-induced global recession that would have especially serious consequences for developing countries and called for a new strategy.
“Excessive monetary tightening could usher in a period of stagnation and economic instability” for some countries, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a statement released alongside its annual report.
“Any belief that they (central banks) will be able to bring down prices by relying on higher interest rates without generating a recession is, the report suggests, an imprudent gamble,” it said.
BayFirst reports dozens of layoffs in Clearwater mortgage production office
The Business Journals|19 hours ago
BayFirst Financial is laying off 58 employees in connection with the dissolution of its nationwide residential mortgage lending business, according to a letter filed with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
Vishal Garg wants you to understand why he’s still Better’s CEO, even after getting ridiculed for brutally laying off 900 people via Zoom
Business Insider|19 hours ago
Garg shared his dreams for the embattled online-mortgage startup, which is coping with staff reductions, a slow housing market, and multiple lawsuits.
“I’ve never managed more than 10 people in my life:” Better’s CEO fesses up
The Real Deal|15 hours ago
Vishal Garg admits to mistakes but argues he’s the right person to lead the embattled digital mortgage lender.
He is not the right person .
But kudos for admitting he screwed up.
Better will probably not make it through this down turn and if they do they need a new person at the top. Very few good people will want to work for him unless he over pays them. I know I would not.
Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Surge In Underwater Borrowers Drives Mortgage Defaults To Record High
From the 1st 14 minute video:
Real Estate Market Shift | August 2022 Market Update | Rocklin Real Estate Market
Oct 2, 2022 Interest Rates reached 7% and just made a slight move down to the high 6% but what is this rate hike doing to the Real Estate Market here in Rocklin California. In this video, I am going to share the numbers for August and also what we are seeing with our clients as well as what we are hearing from the builders in the area.
The second 5 minute video:
The Real Estate Market is Crashing
Andrew Kimball
Oct 2, 2022 There is going to be a real estate market crash, here are 3 reasons why.
The third 5 minute video:
Phoenix Median Single-Family House Price DOWN $40,000 in 4 Months
John Wake
Oct 2, 2022
The last 6 minute video:
Housing prices: ‘We’re looking at 10-20% discount off retail prices,’ realtor says
Oct 3, 2022 Kinloch Partners Co-Founder and CEO Bruce McNeilage gauges the financial temperament of the single family housing market, as well as looking at home prices, construction costs, and rising mortgage rates.
3 reasons why
His last 2 reasons favor low inventory, which typically favors higher prices as we hear ad nauseum.
The Cayman Islands real estate market is finally beginning to slow down after several years of a runaway sector where high demand and a shortage of homes to buy led to very high prices. According to a local real estate agent, both the value and number of sales fell during the third quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, first-time home buyers in Cayman continue to face sky-high property prices and the number of properties available is still lower than before the COVID pandemic.
According to Michael Joseph, of Property Cayman, the total value of sales between 1 July and 30 Sept was just over $198 million compared to well over $262 million during the same period last year, a 24.5% decline. The number of transactions also fell from 274 last year to 185, a drop of almost 32.5%.
But given the continued demand by the wealthy for property here, Joseph said that a “re-calibration” in the Cayman property market was not unexpected and there was no need for panic.
https://caymannewsservice.com/2022/10/hint-of-slowdown-in-runaway-property-market/
GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (KJCT) – The housing market has been all over the place since the pandemic started. One month its a sellers market then it becomes a buyers market. But, today, neither one of those groups is seeing a favorable shift.
I went to Coldwell Banker Distinctive Properties today and sat down with a local realtor, Skylar Kraai. One of the main topics we discussed was interest rates, which is important to this story. Over the past year, interest rates have more than doubled. In 2021, they were at 2.88% for a 30 year mortgage. Now, they have ballooned to over 6.5% in just one year. Again, not in favor of the buyer or seller. Skylar said, “the demand for purchasing properties has decreased due to high interest rates.” That goes hand-in-hand with a recent housing report that says sales for houses decreased 22% for the month of August. That signals the end of the impressive buyers market streak that went on for most of the pandemic.
So, what can you do to get yourself into a new home? Well, Skylar says you can follow these simple tips. “Number 1: have the seller pay for your closing costs. Number 2: you can save money by cancelling unnecessary subscriptions. Lastly, find someone you trust to live with you to bring down that monthly overhead.”
https://www.kjct8.com/2022/10/03/grand-junction-housing-market/
That signals the end of the impressive buyers market streak that went on for most of the pandemic.
Correction: It is the end of the ridiculous seller’s market.
Here’s some advice:
1) Pay your own closing costs. Then you won’t be paying taxes, and interest on them for 30 years. Tell the seller to reduce the price to suit you.
2) Treat yourself to a nice dinner out with a partner you find attractive. The seller can’t afford to do this.
3} Be self reliant. Buy a modest house that you can actually afford on your own.
4. Rent a house for half the monthly cost of buying it. Buy it later after prices crater for 70% less.
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY On Soaring Mortgage Defaults And Record Low Housing Demand
https://www.movoto.com/tx/75203/market-trends/
Owner of Weiss, West Suburban hospitals files for bankruptcy amid sale
Lisa Schencker, Chicago Tribune – Yesterday
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/owner-of-weiss-west-suburban-hospitals-files-for-bankruptcy-amid-sale/ar-AA12ytsp
As prices for PC memory kits and solid state drives (SSDs) continue to fall, NAND flash and memory chip makers are initiating what TrendForce has deemed a “rare production reduction.” These are significant scale backs—Micron last month announced a “nearly 50 percent wafer fab equipment capex cut” compared to last year, while Kioxia has followed suit by saying it will reduce NAND flash capacity utilization at its fabs by 30 percent.
The good news for consumers is that it could take some time for this to be felt in the market place. Last week we wrote about DDR5 and DDR4 memory being headed for big price drops in the near future, based on TrendForce’s forecast, and shortly before that we reported on plummeting SSD prices as well.
It’s all for the same general reason—an oversupply of chips (DRAM and NAND flash, respectively). What led to the oversupplies is a little more nuanced.
“Memory pricing began to decline from 4Q21 due to weakening demand for certain consumer electronics. Coupled with the impact of rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and pandemic policies, demand in peak season was weak, resulting in inventory pressure that has extended from the buyer side to manufacturers,” TrendForce explains.
On the supplier side, the market situation for NAND flash is even more severe than DRAM. Suppliers are essentially selling wafers at cost, and could soon be selling at a loss if the situation doesn’t improve in a hurry. Meanwhile, DRAM wafers are still being sold for a profit, and so it remains to be seen if the planned production reduction will be as steep as it is for NAND flash memory chips.
“It is imperative to reduce bit supply in the NAND flash field due to the large number of competitors and the fact that manufacturers have yet to encroach on the physical limits of manufacturing,” TrendForce states.
That said, the market research firm says both DRAM and NAND flash will be “greatly oversupplied” throughout all of next year, and that the pressure to reduce production will “continue to accelerate” in the first half of 2023. How successful it ends up being on the supplier side depends in part on whether other chip makers join Micron and Kioxia in scaling back production.
https://hothardware.com/news/memory-makers-slash-production-bid-prevent-prices-freefalling
Wa happened to my shortage?
As Prices Drop, Marijuana Growers Want Colorado to Stop Issuing New Licenses
https://www.westword.com/marijuana/colorado-marijuana-growers-want-pause-new-licenses-prices-drop-15124721
who would have ever guessed that something that is referred to as “weed’ in fact grows like a weed.
Wa happened to my shortage?
FWIW, a glut of memory chips doesn’t necessarily mean a glut of other chips, like processors. Also worth keeping in mind that the chips that are under your car’s hood are different than the ones in your phone or laptop. They have to be much more rugged and better able to withstand vibrations and high temperatures.
Shares in Porsche have dropped beneath the price they commanded when the sports car firm hit the market three trading days ago. Porsche launched onto the stock market last Thursday with a €75 billion ($72 bn) valuation that raised $19.5 bn ($18.7 bn), around half go which will go to Volkswagen, who will use it to fund EV development.
Shares opened at €82.50 ($80.87) last week then rose slightly in the initial hours after the IPO, making Porsche a bright spot in a financial market feeling jittery about an inbound recession. But proving that even Porsche can’t buck the market, shares in the automaker fell to €81 ($79.40) when trading resumed on Monday before recovering slightly to €81.48 ($79.87).
https://www.carscoops.com/2022/10/porsche-shares-drop-below-ipo-launch-price/
The neighbor across the street finally got his new car after a five month wait.
EV development????????
FFS might as well just burn that money in a fire. What a waste.
Will Porsche have to shut down this Fall and Winter due to a lack of power?
Home prices are dropping like it’s 2009
HousingWire|17 hours ago
Home prices are now posting the biggest monthly declines since January 2009, according to the latest Mortgage Monitor report from Black Knight.
Why that’s savagely unhealthy…
Credit Suisse Market Turmoil Heightens After Memo Backfires
Credit Suisse’s market capitalization has dropped to around 10.4 billion Swiss francs, meaning any share sale would be highly dilutive to longtime holders. The market value was above 30 billion francs as recently as March 2021.
“Somehow they have to come up with a few billion to cover the cost of the restructuring,” said Andreas Venditti, a banks analyst at Vontobel. “Management will try at all costs to avoid a dilutive share issuance but they are a forced seller right now.”
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-market-turmoil-deepens-110807765.html
For as long as anyone can remember, mangroves and draining swamps protected the Florida coastline from severe storms. But as oceanfront property heated up, so did the demand for clearing out natural protective resources and building dangerously close to water.
The new builds, according to the Grist, placed tens of thousands of homes directly in the path of the Hurricane’s destruction.
“You have a natural wetland marsh,” Stephen Strader, an associate professor at Villanova University who studies the societal forces behind disasters, told the Grist. “The primary function of those regions is to protect the inland areas from things like storm surge. You’re building on top of it, you’re replacing it with subdivisions and homes. What do we expect to see?”
According to the Grist, the crux of Florida’s development issues lie with a strategy called “dredge-and-fill.” Essentially, developers dig up land from the bottom of rivers and swamps and pile it all up to make artificial land masses for building.
The issue is that when you have storms, you no longer have the rivers or swamps for protection. But, what’s worse, the homes are right up against the water, putting them at greater risk.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/real-estate-developers-increased-hurricane-221000066.html
Wa’s that noise Ma?
Why that’s our chickens, they’ve come home to roost!
Tens of thousands of Florida residents have likely been left financially ruined because they did not have flood insurance before Hurricane Ian devastated wide swaths of the Sunshine State, according to experts.
Fewer than one-third of the 1.8 million households in those nine counties have policies with the National Flood Insurance Program, according to Politico. That means some 1.3 million households do not have federally insured flood coverage. “Ian could financially ruin thousands of families in Florida,” Mark Friedlander of the Insurance Information Institute told Politico. “There’s no better way to say it.”
Amber Thorne is a resident of Seminole County. She told the Wall Street Journal that her two-bedroom house was flooded after a nearby creek overflowed as the hurricane passed through the area. Thorne told the Journal that her home is not covered by flood insurance.
“I’m regretting not having it,” she said. According to the Journal, 97% of homes in Seminole County don’t have flood insurance.
The Journal cited statistics provided by Neptune Flood, a private flood insurance provider, which found that a whopping 98% of residents in Orange County, which includes Orlando, are not covered.
https://nypost.com/2022/10/03/hurricane-ian-financially-ruined-floridians-without-flood-insurance/
How do you have a loan and not have insurance?
I would think they need insurance for a loan if it’s in a designated flood plain.
I too find this very confusing because because can’t believe 98% of the loans are paid off or were not sold to Government entities.
1. you are not in a flood plain. you can’t buy flood insurance if you aren’t in a flood plain.
2. your home is paid off
a. flood insurance is expensive and doesn’t cover much (maxes at 250k structure).
I”m find with people rolling the dice with no (or little) insurance on their homes. You make a bet and sometimes it comes up snake eyes.
BUT DON’T WHINE ABOUT IT.
You saved 10’s of 1000’s of dollars over the years not buying the proper insurance so no whining and no bailouts. (yeah, banks too).
Anyone who wanted to sell their house in 2022 rushed to do it earlier this year when the signs were clear that mortgage rates would be rising, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “That’s contributing to how dead it is right now.”
https://www.axios.com/2022/10/03/housing-market-stuck
A United Nations agency warned on Monday of the risk of a monetary policy-induced global recession that would have especially serious consequences for developing countries and called for a new strategy.
“Excessive monetary tightening could usher in a period of stagnation and economic instability” for some countries, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a statement released alongside its annual report.
“Any belief that they (central banks) will be able to bring down prices by relying on higher interest rates without generating a recession is, the report suggests, an imprudent gamble,” it said.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/un-agency-warns-recession-linked-150508074.html
BayFirst reports dozens of layoffs in Clearwater mortgage production office
The Business Journals|19 hours ago
BayFirst Financial is laying off 58 employees in connection with the dissolution of its nationwide residential mortgage lending business, according to a letter filed with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
Vishal Garg wants you to understand why he’s still Better’s CEO, even after getting ridiculed for brutally laying off 900 people via Zoom
Business Insider|19 hours ago
Garg shared his dreams for the embattled online-mortgage startup, which is coping with staff reductions, a slow housing market, and multiple lawsuits.
“I’ve never managed more than 10 people in my life:” Better’s CEO fesses up
The Real Deal|15 hours ago
Vishal Garg admits to mistakes but argues he’s the right person to lead the embattled digital mortgage lender.
He is not the right person .
But kudos for admitting he screwed up.
Better will probably not make it through this down turn and if they do they need a new person at the top. Very few good people will want to work for him unless he over pays them. I know I would not.
Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As Surge In Underwater Borrowers Drives Mortgage Defaults To Record High
https://www.movoto.com/miami-beach-fl/market-trends/
As one Miami broker lamented, “Business is so slow I feel like the Maytag repairman.”