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More Distress, Some Panic Selling, And Potentially More Downward Pressure On Prices

A report from the Niagara Gazette in New York. “‘The first sign of a housing boom came in April 2020,’ said Jamie Yaman, the principal broker for Cortland-based Yaman Real Estate. ‘That is a market we will never see again. There was a lot of money pumped into the economy.’ Prices rose 20% to 30% on all types of housing – single-family, lakeside, vacant land that had been on the market for years, Yaman said.’Every property class we had was getting hit.’ The median sale price for a single-family house rose 14.5% between 2020 and 2021, to $151,985. That’s 26.7% higher than 2017, state Realtors figures show. They sold, anyway, regardless of the price: 490 houses in 2021, up 26.9% from the previous year and 18.6% more than 2017.”

“‘The real estate market, prices are definitely going down,’ said Rose ‘Marie’ Ferro, president of the Cortland County Board of Realtors. The housing boom in single-family home sales was not sustainable and it was just a matter of time until market conditions deteriorated, Ferro said. ‘It was not realistic,’ she said. ‘It was a fantasy world.’ Houses are sitting on the market a little longer and the annual winter slow down in sales is coming, she said.”

The New Hampshire Union Leader. “Many homes for sale are still getting multiple offers, but not as many as earlier this year or 2021, according to real estate agents. ‘There’s still so many people that didn’t win the (house) lottery the last three or four years, they’re still out there and they still want to buy,’ said Realtor Rachel Eames. The median-sales price for a house has jumped nearly $90,000 in two years and $40,000 in the past year alone. Bedford real estate agent Greg Powers said he has anecdotally seen some asking prices trimmed.”

“‘I just think a lot of those price reductions are very optimistic sellers thinking the market was going to go on forever and you could get any price,’ he said. ‘That has changed a little bit, and buyers are a little more discerning these days. For sellers, pricing is crucial. No more let’s price it high and see what happens.’ ‘We have plateaued and prices are slowly, slowly kind of decompressing,’ said Eames, based in Concord. ‘They’re slowly becoming more palatable for buyers, but we are talking a little smidge. It is not going to be a buyer’s market.'”

From KPNX TV in Arizona. “As the housing market in Phoenix continues to sizzle, it’s wise to stay strong against competitive sellers. ‘It went from sellers not really having to do anything to their homes, to now they’re sort of incentivizing buyers to come in and see the home and make an offer,’ said Jennie Richau with Brokers Hub Realty. Back in the spring, Richau said they only had 4,300 listings. Now that number has increased to over 21,000. Therefore, capitalizing on the market is big. Homeowners should consider ‘dolling up their dwelling’ to draw in potential buyers to stand out from the other options. ‘It’s really about setting your listing apart these days,’ she said.”

The Spokesman Review in Washington. “Spokane County homebuyers might be finding they have more leverage when purchasing a home this fall. The county’s housing market, which was red hot in the summer with bidding wars and homes going under contract within days, continued to level off in September. The median closing price for homes and condos on less than 1 acre was $409,950 in September. The median price was $416,450 a month before. ‘The increase in interest rates, I think, can cause a little fear from buyers,’ said Tiffany Claxton, CEO of the Realtors association. ‘It’s turning toward a buyers’ market, but we’re not there yet. Now, a buyer has the opportunity to look at three, four or five listings and the ability to add back in inspections and contingencies, whereas during the last two to three years, it has been so competitive that buyers were removing contingencies and putting in all cash offers with a 15-day close.'”

“For home sellers to remain competitive in the local market, they should realize there’s a shift occurring, Claxton said. ‘We’re not in the same place we were in six months to a year ago, where the market was warranting much higher listing prices,’ she said.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “A Houston developer unveiled designs for a 10-story condominium building in Galveston that draws inspiration from luxury beach side residences of Miami. The project could break ground in late 2023. Satya, a condo developer and commercial real estate consulting firm is planning a wide, glass-clad building with ocean views for all 63 residences on Galveston’s West End. The project would join Galveston’s newer condominiums of Palisade Palms, the Emerald and Diamond Beach. Condos in those buildings have been strong sellers, although competition has been less fierce since July as high interest rates cut into buying power.”

“‘When any of those units come on the market, they sell fairly quickly, because people like new,’ said Andrea Sunseri, a real estate agent with Sand and ‘N Sea Properties in Galveston. ‘We were getting multiple offers on properties at the beginning of the year. Not so much anymore.'”

Multi-Housing News. “Is the transformation of commercial office buildings to multifamily residences hype or hard news? So far, it’s been mostly hype, according to Julie Whelan, global head of occupier research at CBRE. ‘The jury is still out’ on just how much the office market is now overbuilt thanks to the pandemic and the resulting work-from-home movement, said Ed Cross, a developer who is turning the 31-story Tower Life tower in San Antonio’s downtown into a mixed use property.”

“In his own town, Cross told the meeting, office buildings are 85 percent leased but only 20 percent occupied. But even if the sector is just 20 percent overbuilt, Cross added, the market can absorb no more than 7 percent, leaving the other 13 percent to founder and leaving lenders holding the bag. Only if lenders sell on the cheap to avoid foreclosure, he said, will developers like Cross & Co. begin to use their ingenuity.”

“‘Sometimes buildings are worth less than the land under them,’ Cross said. ‘If lenders sell to anyone with dollars, that’s when we can get really creative … . Some lenders are not going to sell for just any number, but they really have to. Lenders have to decide how much pain they are willing to endure.'”

“Douglas Cameron of Cameron Management, a Texas firm which is transforming the Esperson office building in downtown Houston into residential rental units, agreed with that assessment. Foreclosure is a word we’re going to start hearing again unless banks become very motivated to do something, lest they end up owning some under-performing buildings. ‘Once lenders start collecting rent themselves,’ Cameron warned, ‘their properties will lose even more value.'”

The Financial Post in Canada. “Nervous investors looking to offload their pre-construction condos in the secondary market may find themselves out of luck, industry watchers say, as a softening real estate market and rising interest rates send buyers to the sidelines. A number of real estate agents in the Greater Toronto Area told the Financial Post they have been seeing a surge of calls asking about ‘assignment sales,’ a kind of legal transaction in which the original pre-construction condo buyer ‘assigns’ or transfers the rights and obligations of the purchase agreement to another buyer.”

“Those in the industry say stagnating condo prices are making it more difficult for owners to exit their investments. At Precondo.ca, an online catalogue of pre-construction units across the GTA, investor concern is evident in an increase in chatter about such sales. The overall share of conversations with the intent to trigger an assignment sale jumped from four per cent in 2017 to 14 per cent this year, based on a sample of 78,000 calls that were screened for the use of the words ‘assignment,’ ‘assign’ or ‘flip.'”

“Precondo.ca chief executive Jordon Scrinko said he has never seen the assignment market this soft before. ‘Within the past three to five years, there is a sizeable chunk of the market of the pre-construction buying pool, who bought units that may never actually intended to close on, and some of them — even more worrying — actually factually cannot afford to close on,’ Scrinko said. ‘If they bought five years ago, they’re still in profit in nine out of 10 cases. But if they bought, say 2020 or end of 2019 and … the building’s coming up on occupancy today and they’re trying to flip that contract today — in most cases, those people are not equity-positive.'”

“John Pasalis, president at Toronto-based Realosophy Realty, said trouble in the pre-construction condo market could have wider consequences. ‘The idea, of course, is the second new housing sales and starts slow down, that ends up having a broader domino effect economically,’ he said. ‘We lose jobs in the construction industry and housing fuels a significant section of our economy. So, there’s massive economic risks. I think the bigger effect would just be a turn to pessimism, and when people become pessimistic, you end up potentially with some more distress, some panic selling, and potentially more downward pressure on prices as well,’ he added.”

The Evening Standard in the UK. “The number of buyers searching for homes in London has slumped dramatically since the mini-budget. One developer said the turmoil has ‘literally killed the housing market stone dead.’ Richard Donnell, director of research at Zoopla, said: ‘Demand for homes has fallen the most in outer areas and the commuter zones where house price growth has been strongest in the last two years as buyers search for space and push up the value of three-bed homes.'”

“Joe Garner, managing director of property developer NewPlace, said: ‘A house price crash in the capital is now a fait accompli. The only unknown is how hard and how fast the crash is. Only a few weeks ago, I was fairly confident the crash would be minimal, but then Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng blew the mortgage, property and bond markets apart. We will now be lucky if we manage to get away with a 10 per cent drop in prices, and a fall of 20 per cent in London cannot be ruled out. Projected monthly repayments will have doubled for some first-time buyers in the past few weeks alone, making buying a property practically impossible.'”

The South China Morning Post. “Hong Kong’s serviced-apartment operators are taking friendly fire from an unlikely competitor, as hotels that have lost their quarantine income slash prices to fill empty rooms after local authorities relaxed their isolation rules for inbound travellers. The former quarantine hotels are hurting for guests because few business travellers and tourists have returned, leaving the market flooded with vacant rooms, said Derek Sun Wei-kong, managing director of Signature Homes.”

“‘Hotels, when they are not full, tend to lower the price and attract long-stay guests,’ he said. ‘And that’s basically taking market share from serviced apartments and residential.’ The government engaged some 26,000 hotel rooms – about 29 per cent of Hong Kong’s total inventory – up until September 26 when hotel quarantines were scrapped. ‘Suddenly, they have no need of it,’ he told the Post. ‘So the 26,000 rooms kind of flooded the market immediately.'”

“With no reopening of the border with mainland China in sight, 85 per cent of the previous mainland China market is non-existent, said William Cheng Kai-ming, chairman of Magnificent Hotel Investments. ‘Even with the introduction of a ‘0+0′ policy, which is not expected any time soon, bookings or occupancies may only improve by 15 or 20 per cent, as that is how much the non-mainland Chinese market used to contribute,’ Cheng said. ‘Unless the mainland Chinese border reopens completely, there are not going to be any meaningful bookings, and most hotels will be operating at heavy losses.’ Rents in Hong Kong have dropped by 5 to 10 per cent since 2018 amid the 2019 social unrest and Covid-19, Sun said.”

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This Post Has 119 Comments

  1. ’85 per cent of the previous mainland China market is non-existent…Unless the mainland Chinese border reopens completely, there are not going to be any meaningful bookings, and most hotels will be operating at heavy losses’

    How do you like the commie central planning now Bill, chairman of Magnificent A$$ Pounding Investments?

  2. ‘Only a few weeks ago, I was fairly confident the crash would be minimal, but then Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng blew the mortgage, property and bond markets apart. We will now be lucky if we manage to get away with a 10 per cent drop in prices, and a fall of 20 per cent in London cannot be ruled out’

    The people on this sh$tty little island really live in their own world. Global real estate is sinking like a turd in a well and they think a budget caused it. I even saw one article blame it on – Brexit!

  3. they only had 4,300 listings. Now that number has increased to over 21,000

    Wa happened to my shortage Phoenix?

    1. A 400% increase in ~six months!!? What can possibly go wrong?
      What is it about Phoenix that makes it go through these wild boom and busts? California refugee money?

      1. It’s not K-fn’s. Boom bust is a common theme. When the S&L’s blew up in the 80’s, it drove Arizona into recession. Phoenix shack prices plummeted, because the S&L’s in Arizona were neck deep in the property/loan fraud. So I guess part of it is crooked lending thrives there. The UHS are the same. I’ve mentioned before that when fraud first started to be reported in the 2000’s a Phoenix UHS actually said, ‘fraud is OK cuz it’s just taking prices where they would go anyway.’

        It’s a 17 city sh$thole (some say 34 cities) full of RE crooks and swindlers. The developers get what they want and nobody goes to jail.

        1. I should add, it’s not just Phoenix, although it’s the worst for fraud. Tucson/Flagstaff/Mohave County shack prices are WAY higher than the 2000’s. Being a cheap place for snowbirds and golf was OK, but how are you gonna get rich with that?

        2. Two of the “The Keating Five” — the SL Loan Fraud crisis, back in the 1980s — were from AZ (McCain and DeConcini). Arizona has been the bullseye of mortgage fraud for many years.

          Did you know that DeConcini was appointed to the SL oversight Board (not sure it’s official title) by Bill Clinton ONE YEAR AFTER HE RETIRED and only a few years after he had been “reprimanded” by the Senate? Not kidding.

          1. “Did you know that DeConcini was appointed to the SL oversight Board (not sure it’s official title) by Bill Clinton ONE YEAR AFTER HE RETIRED and only a few years after he had been “reprimanded” by the Senate? Not kidding.”

            “It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it!” —George Carlin

        3. when fraud first started to be reported in the 2000’s a Phoenix UHS actually said, ‘fraud is OK cuz it’s just taking prices where they would go anyway.’
          Back in the early-Mid 2000’s the company I worked for would not buy 3rd party loans from Southern CA or S. FL due to the risk of fraud out weighing the benefits of the loan.

  4. ‘We’re not in the same place we were in six months to a year ago’

    You know Tiffany, I’d bet yer sh$thole town is exactly in the same place, but yer stuck with those prices! Good luck.

  5. ‘leaving lenders holding the bag’

    Sacré bleu!

    ‘The overall share of conversations with the intent to trigger an assignment sale jumped from four per cent in 2017 to 14 per cent this year, based on a sample of 78,000 calls that were screened for the use of the words ‘assignment,’ ‘assign’ or ‘flip’

    Try searching for ‘please help’, ‘Ima dying here’, and ‘they never should have given me this loan.’

    K-dn are naive about their gambling problems. Non-existent airboxes – check. Tiny amounts of skin in the game – check. We’re gonna be rich doing absolutely nothing!

    Gnomes (South Park)

    “Gnomes” is the seventeenth and penultimate episode of the second season of the American animated television series South Park. The 30th episode of the series overall, it originally aired on Comedy Central in the United States on December 16, 1998. The episode was written by series co-creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone, along with Pam Brady, and directed by Parker. This episode marks the first appearance of Tweek Tweak and his parents.

    In the episode, Harbucks plans to enter the South Park coffee market, posing a threat to the local coffee business owners, the Tweek Parents. Mr. Tweek, scheming to use the boys’ school report as a platform to fight Harbucks, convinces the boys to deliver their school report on the supposed threat corporatism poses to small businesses, moving the South Park community to take action against Harbucks.

    “Gnomes” satirizes the common complaint that large corporations lack consciences and drive seemingly wholesome smaller independent companies out of business. Paul Cantor described the episode as “the most fully developed defense of capitalism” ever produced by the show, because of various themes in the episode. In the episode, smaller businesses are portrayed as being at least as greedy as their corporate counterparts, while their products are of lower quality compared to the products offered by large corporations. The episode is also known for the nonsensical business plan that the gnomes of the title devise (whose three steps consist of “Collect underpants”, “?”, “Profit”), which later became a common meme used to mock poorly-thought-out business and political strategies.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gnomes_(South_Park)

  6. ‘When any of those units come on the market, they sell fairly quickly, because people like new,’ said Andrea Sunseri, a real estate agent with Sand and ‘N Sea Properties in Galveston. ‘We were getting multiple offers on properties at the beginning of the year. Not so much anymore’

    I’d bet Andrea has a hand painted sign. This sh$thole is far flung, the waters dirty, and you can rent plenty of places and leave forever which is what people do. Oh sure Galveston is like Miami! Yer just catching up with Vancouver!!

  8. Former President Barack Obama took some shots at his fellow Democrats, calling them ‘buzzkills’ and says their rhetoric forces people to ‘walk on eggshells.’

    Obama, speaking to four of his former employees on the Pod Save America podcast, said that some people within his party need to cool down the temperature and understand that everyone makes mistakes.

    He said: ‘Sometimes Democrats are [buzzkills]. Sometimes people just want to not feel as if they are walking on eggshells, and they want some acknowledgment that life is messy and that all of us, at any given moment, can say things the wrong way, make mistakes.’

    Obama added that his fellow Dems should learn from what he felt were his mistakes as president, saying: ‘I used to get into trouble whenever, as you guys know well, whenever I got a little too professorial and, you know, started … when I was behind the podium as opposed to when I was in a crowd, there were times where I’d get, you know, sound like I was giving a bunch of policy gobbledygook.’

    He noted: ‘That’s not how people think about these issues. They think about them in terms of the life I’m leading day to day. How does politics, how is it even relevant to the things that I care the most deeply about?’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11319945/Obama-takes-swipe-party-complaining-Democrats-BUZZKILLS.html

    You tell em obammie, what people really care about is a president who’s good at KILLING PEOPLE!

      1. Obama raked in $70 million in post-public service payola from his Wall Street investment banker pimps. Of course he gets to live out his life with Big Mike, so maybe karma got him in the end, so to speak.

        1. Of course he gets to live out his life with Big Mike, so maybe karma got him in the end, so to speak.
          I have the same thoughts concerning Bill and Hillary.
          For Bill, a life worse than death! (it’s a shame because I actually liked Bill, Pre-Monica lie.)

  9. A reader sent these in:

    Just took a first glance at the ‘Equity Mate’ (home equity withdrawal).
    Its worse than even I imagined. The proportion of home owners accessing equity has risen 1140% since 2004.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1581868669516541953

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Housing market update:

    1. Pending home sales down 28%, most since May 2020

    2. Mortgage rates now higher than 2008, at 6.9%

    3. New home listings down 19%

    4. Average home now selling below list price

    5. The Fed is actively targeting the housing market

    The bubble has popped.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1581655109062180864

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Pricing power is still VERY strong in a handful of markets where the mania has not touched – New Haven, CT is hot right now, for example. ANY MARKET that’s been hot, God help it…it’s imploding.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1581827359346683904

    The Airbnbust is upon us

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1581667746429177856

    I got one. Prices DOUBLED in 2020, when work from home and 3% mortgages were the rage. Now the back to work whistle is blown, and mortgage rates are 7%. Why wont prices fall back AT LEAST to 2019 levels on properties that actually change hands? Please dont use the word “special”

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1581377058029961216

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    The FOUR things majority miss re: current housing bust:
    1) US housing NOT relatively cheap
    2) It’s just as LEVERAGED as subprime, though FORM & debt HOLDERS differ
    3) Sales & price declines occurring TWICE as fast as subprime
    4) “Lack of supply” myth (see population growth RATE)

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1581688891328774146

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Wow. Seriously. Wow.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1581698253133090816

    1. “It’s just as LEVERAGED as subprime, though FORM & debt HOLDERS differ”

      Government sponsored and guaranteed subprime?

      1. “Government sponsored and guaranteed subprime?”

        – Gov.-sponsored entities (GSEs) are the Gov. choosing winners and losers; it’s the Gov. short-circuiting the free market process of Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” of the markets and free enterprise. U.S. Gov. following CCP China’s lead of central planning. How’s that workin’ out for China? Hello? Bueller?
        – Housing finance
        – Student loan debt
        – The Fed
        – (Fill in the blank)
        – Maximum moral hazard
        – What a sh*t-show!

        “Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of Congress; but I repeat myself.” – Mark Twain

        “Politicians are the lowest form of life on earth. Liberal Democrats are the lowest form of politicians.” – General George S. Patton

        “Everything a government touches, turns to crap.” – Ringo Star

        “Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. It is made by or stopped by the central bank.” – Milton Friedman

        “Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them.” – Ronald Reagan

        “The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.” – The Wealth Of Nations, Book IV, Chapter II, p. 456, para. 10.

        “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’ ”- Ronald Reagan – 40th president of US (1911 – 2004)  

    2. Its worse than even I imagined. The proportion of home owners accessing equity has risen 1140% since 2004.
      I am not buying it. I was working for a mortgage company doing 99% refis with the majority cash out. We were sending “pre-approved” mortgage offers to current clients. The volume was insane. I need to see the data before I would buy any of this. Check out the refi and cash out volumes in 2003-2004 before believing him.
      Just because someone says something does not mean they know what the he$$ they are talking about.
      I could not get access to his data thru the link
      Tried to find a link to historical refi volume but didn’t stumble upon one.

      1. I don’t think it really matters. What does is the appraisal fraud and defective mortgage contracts.

    4. The Airbnbust is upon us

      Attached image of Oct 7 comment by Airbnb Superhost: Has anyone seen a huge decrease in bookings over the last 3 to 4 months? We went from at least 50% occupancy to literally 0% the last two months. I’m just curious if this is something only going on with my property or if other people are seeing similar things. I am in Palm Springs. Where are you located?

      1. Gosh, Speculator Boy, I sure hope you weren’t counting on constant STRs to pay your mortgage on that “investment.”

    1. Orlando is in Orange County. Orange county is blue as heck. I’m not sure where this video is from, but it’s not representative of all of OC.

  11. I don’t know nothing about nothing, but it seems to me that whenever you hear the phrases Climate Change or ‘Global Warming’, that if you substitute those words with ‘overpopulation’ then it all makes sense. Climate Change is the MIC’s catchphrase for overpopulation and dwindling resources. They just don’t want to spook the herd?

    Maybe ‘they’ know something we don’t. Or not.

    Take the ever-present drought in California. Adding a million ‘migrants’ to the state means adding a million more flushes and a million more showers each day. There is no drought. It’s just common sense. Dwindling resources via overpopulation. There is not a chicken for every pot anymore.

    Overpopulation is a problem that has been mentioned a few times here at the HBB. It is a touchy subject. We are at 8 billion personas very soon. If that’s not too many then what is? Our quality of life is degrading faster now is all I know.

    Just playing the devil’s advocate here but maybe Gates et al are legitimized by killing and/or sterilizing people with the clot shot instead of dropping bombs (while enriching themselves in the process of course). Maybe that is the more ‘humane’ and less ‘messy’ route than war, while leaving existing infrastructure intact and monetizing death. But maybe we’ll have both soon. Not many solutions if you believe we are overpopulated. Or you say: ‘Mother Nature will take care of it’. I dunno.

    What I saw today, while risking life and limb driving a scooter with thousands of other scooters in the clusterfricking road chaos in a suburban Saigon ghetto tells me we need to thin the herd. But I’ve been a Malthusian since the 60’s.

    Oh BTW, Vietnam,Thailand, Mexico and many other countries no longer require the vaxx cert. But all foreigners still must show a fully vaxxed certificate to enter the USA…except for the illegal alien border crossers of course.

    Just ‘trying to make some sense of it all’.

    We Got The Neutron Bomb:
    The Weirdos 1991:

    https://youtu.be/p–ofeHvUts

    1. Even if a population problem existed on a global level, it doesn’t give a small group of unelected Psychopaths the right to mass murder people against their will.
      It doesn’t give them the right to set up a One World Order Dictorship , where the agenda is turning humanity into hacked drone like slaves.
      They think they have the right to use technology to dictate the fate of humanity, so they can have some bizarre utopia for themselves.
      They want to control all resources, you will own nothing, and they dictate what you get to eat. They call humanity ” useless eaters”.
      The real truth is they have always been the useless parasites, looting humanity, causing endless wars, rigging systems , and socially engineering the masses by their fraud narratives like Climate Change and Pandemics for medical tyranny and forced injections.
      Trick humanity into being eliminated and deprived and enslaved.
      They were creating bio weapons and fake vaccines as weapons of mass destruction . They are withdrawing energy without sustainable replacement and messing with the food supp!y.
      They are dangerous to humanity and the earth. And the evidence shows these Entities have been planning this take over for at least 100 years.
      If humanity has population problems, than let humanity solve this problem if it exists, not these anti humanity psychopaths ,parasites ,looters, and fraudsters.

    3. And let us not forget ” Michelle-my belle” and her statement-“for everyone to get a piece of the pie- someone must give up a portion
      of their pie” ( ‘cept us of course )
      Keep your head down and on a swivel and don’t flaunt your wealth,
      milk it to the very end.

  12. The Market is Crashing in Colorado…Or Are Houses Just No Longer Selling For Above Market?
    Lauren Hughes
    Oct 16, 2022 The Housing market is stabilizing…I know, the interest rates…that is part of it. Let’s chat about the market and how it is not crashing and no longer appreciating at uncontrolled rates. In my opinion houses are not dropping 20%, they are simply not getting into competitions with 20 other buyers with agents rallying for buyers to pay their highest and best with a disregard for how much the house is actually worth. Houses are now selling for market rate, when homes are appropriately priced. I would not consider an online app to have an accurate price, it lacks the local knowledge that a computer just doesn’t do yet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiH9Fr8-v6Q

    1 minute.

  13. “The median closing price for homes and condos on less than 1 acre was $409,950 in September. The median price was $416,450 a month before.”

    1-(409950/416450)^12 = 17.2% annualized rate of price decline

    “‘The increase in interest rates, I think, can cause a little fear from buyers,’ said Tiffany Claxton, CEO of the Realtors association.”

    Do used home sellers have to understand how to do simple financial calculations?

    I was helping one of my college age kids with his finance homework last night. One of the problems wenr something like, ‘how expensive of a home can a buyer purchase with a monthly payment of $1200 on a 30-year mortgage at 3.25 percent interest and a down payment of $47,000?”.

    i suggested to my son to ask his professor what would happen to the answer if the interest rate in the problem went up from 3.25 percent to 7 percent.

    1. “Prices DOUBLED in 2020, when work from home and 3% mortgages were the rage. Now the back to work whistle is blown, and mortgage rates are 7%. Why wont prices fall back AT LEAST to 2019 levels on properties that actually change hands?”

      Just do the math. The 3% mortgage buyers are FOOKED.

    2. Newsletter
      Mortgages
      Daily Rates
      Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates, October 14, 2022 | High Inflation Pushes Rates Toward 7.2%
      Jason Stauffer
      October 14, 2022 | 6 Min Read

      Mortgage rates have changed dramatically since the start of the year – and continue to march upward.

      The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate has doubled since sitting around 3% this time a year ago. High inflation is a major cause of the surge in rates, along with the Federal Reserve’s increases to its own interest rate to quell that inflation.

      High mortgage rates have turned the housing market upside down, with a previously hyper-competitive market now cooling significantly. While prices are falling in some areas, that may not make up for the increased costs homebuyers face in the form of significantly higher mortgage rates. Be sure to calculate your monthly payment – and give yourself wiggle room in your budget – to decide if a home is actually affordable to you.

      Here are today’s average interest rates and what they mean for borrowers.

      Looking at today’s mortgage rates a variety of preeminent rates climbed. The averages for both 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed mortgages both drifted higher. For variable rates, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) also floated higher.
      …
      https://time.com/nextadvisor/mortgages/daily-rates/mortgage-rates-today-october-14-2022/

      1. “The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate has doubled since sitting around 3% this time a year ago.”

        Dear Realtor: 2 × 3% = 6%.

        7.2% is a lot more than double 3%, with no end in sight to rate hikes.

        The math is not pretty for home sales.

        1. And for every 1% increase in rate, prices need to come down roughly 10% just to maintain payment parity.

  14. “If you don’t like the terms of service of Twitter go build your own Twitter” — every Blue Checkmark, NPC, Reddit karma score

    Oh, wait. Not like that.

    CNBC — Kanye West agrees to buy conservative social media platform Parler, company says (10/17/2022):

    “In a world where conservative opinions are considered to be controversial we have to make sure we have the right to freely express ourselves,” said West, who now goes by Ye, in a statement released by Parler.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/17/kanye-west-is-buying-conservative-social-media-platform-parler-company-says.html

  15. The Coloradan and Downtown Denver October 2022
    Amy Cesario
    Premiered 9 hours ago The Coloradan and Downtown Denver Market Update October 2022

    The market slowed in August and September. Days on the Market rose. This is the time condos start coming back on the market in Downtown Denver.

    Get the home updated, buyers do not want to do updates.

    Discount brokerage firms are doing the sellers a disservice and are not getting homes sold at a reasonable price. If they are discounting their services I guarantee they are discounting your price. Talk to a few agents before you decide to sell.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ8L4-Ah0is

    3 minutes.

  17. If you live under a globalist Quisling regime, you should know that your shack or skybox is built to maximize developer profits, not present you with a quality-built dwelling.

    Couple’s dream home turns into nightmare after they moved into £450k David Wilson Homes new-build to find 250 faults including collapsing walls, wonky radiators, broken doors and dodgy electrics

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11323179/Couples-dream-home-turns-nightmare-moved-450k-new-build-250-faults.html

    A couple who thought they were buying their £450,000 ‘forever home’ have discovered over 250 faults after moving in – including collapsing walls, broken doors and dodgy electrics.

    Nadia and Damian Jaworska identified a catalogue of problems at their David Wilson Homes property after arriving in June this year.

    The four-bedroom house is located on the luxury Wendel View development in Wellinborough, Northamptonshire.

  18. This is the weekly show I always watch but rarely link to cuz it’s over an hour. But this sh$tfest is getting interesting in K-da. Everybody’s in on the fraud. Puddle watching furor! Lot’s of F bombs. Altered documents!!.

    CBC Exposes Mortgage Fraud- Homelife Miracle Scam
    The Canadian Real Estate Show
    Oct 16, 2022 #canadianrealestate #canada #realestate #toronto #vancouver #calgary
    CBC Exposes Mortgage Fraud- Homelife Miracle Scam – The Canadian Real Estate Show

    Darryl and TK discuss the Canadian Real Estate Market in depth from their own unique perspectives with a particular focus on The Toronto Real estate Market. Today we are lucky to have Mark Mitchell on the show to discuss real estate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uks7RuX-bY

    One hour three minutes. “They got commission breath.”

  19. The globalist oligarchs always make sure their stooges are richly rewarded for their services rendered during their “public service.”

    Scott Morrison joins global speaking group for post-prime ministership engagements

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/scott-morrison-joins-global-speaking-group-for-postprime-ministership-engagements/news-story/de7856695b6ed47ce0c8b7ecae703aff

    Scott Morrison has unveiled his new gig as a “global thought leader” as the former PM prepares to rake in the cash following May’s election defeat.

    Scott Morrison has signed with a talent agency that charges organisations up to $100,000 for speaking engagements with “global thought leaders”.
    The former Prime Minister has joined US-based Worldwide Speakers Group (WWSG) to exclusively facilitate his global speaking engagements, the company announced on Friday.

    “After extensive research and due diligence, I am excited to be joining Worldwide Speakers Group who will help facilitate my growing relationships within the private sector,” Mr Morrison said in a press release.

  20. Nuke War In Ukraine? No Big Deal, Says Biden Ally

    NEIL MUNRO
    16 Oct 2022

    Liberal guests on Bill Maher’s comedy show downplayed the risk of nuclear escalation in the Ukraine vs. Russia war for control of the Donbas region.

    “They’re tactical nukes — they’re just bigger versions of what a conventional attack would be,” said Neil deGrasse Tyson, a Harvard-trained science and “science communicator.” He said on the October 15 show:

    Modern nukes don’t have the radiation problem … it’s a different kind of weapon than Hiroshima and Nagasaki … in the way that we used to have to worry about with fallout and all the rest of that. What you really have to worry about is being vaporized and after that, if you’re not vaporized, blown to bits by the shock wave. That’s a way bigger problem that you’re going to have.

    These days, deGrasse Tyson is an emotional supporter of President Joe Biden and a reliable progressive. For example, he supports much of the transgender ideology that is being pushed by Biden. He is now backing Biden’s policy of providing unconditional support to Ukraine — and many billions of dollars in weapons.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/10/16/nukes-in-ukraine-no-probs-said-biden-ally/

    Nuclear Weapons exaggerated? Niel Degrasse Tyson, Real Time Bill Maher; Russia Ukraine

    Oct 15, 2022
    2,083 views

    https://youtu.be/QGa4ItIOCRg

    1. I’m sure Degrasse Tyson is getting a payoff for saying stuff like this. As for tactical nukes not being “dirty”, my understanding is that they are fission, not fusion bombs. They should be very dirty and radioactive

      It sure feels like we are sleepwalking our way into a nuclear war. As the cartoon I posted yesterday stated, the Biden steal supporters just wanted to get rid of the orange man, they don’t want to die in a nuclear war. To which Biden replies: tough, there is a narrative to support.

      1. “It sure feels like we are sleepwalking our way into a nuclear war.”

        Without natural gas Germany’s chemical industry and those who rely on their products, think fertilizers, plastics, etc., are doomed. Lacking cheap oil their manufacturing base and most of Europe’s 900-million consumers are going to go without their usual goods and services. Europe’s entire economy is headed for a deep recession; the economic tsunami has already happened, and the tidal wave is approaching.

        If the Russians resort to nukes their entire naval fleet will be destroyed. The economic sanctions are crippling, and similar technological imports are now being restricted to China too. Looks like the New World Order is coming sooner than expected.

          2. “Build a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life.” —Terry Pratchett, Jingo

  23. The housing glut. It’s real. It’s really real.

    I got an email from an email list I’m on that said the following:

    “We are going to try to rent this home with a “by the room” concept ($950 per room, 4 leases). This will include electric, water, internet, and common area cleaning. If you happen to know someone who is a part of the Cool Kids Club, please refer them to me.

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/229-Lake-Harris-Dr_Lakeland_FL_33813_M92018-85316”

    This email was sent by the president of the large home building company that built this home.

    There is no glut. There can’t be. /s

    1. It wasn’t that long ago that $950 a month got you your own rental apartment, which you didn’t have to share with strangers.

        1. Room and board charges at colleges have become a racket. At some State U’s you can pay more for room and board (a shared room in a dorm and a cafeteria card) than for tuition.

          And we all know here there is a glut of overpriced off campus student housing, especially since many men are finally understanding unless they major in STEM that they are wasting time and money attending a 4 year school, plus the fact they will be treated as pariahs. They are figuring out that it’s better to learn a trade.

          1. It’s true. My husband could probably make double or triple his income if he went into the right welding job.

          2. I saw a cartoon the other day of a young man working in a bookstore being asked inane questions by customers: When does the next bus stop here? Is there a Starbucks nearby, etc. Then his mom walks in and asks him how his day is going. He sarcastically replies that he’s putting his master’s degree to good use.

          3. It’s a sad reality, and I’m sure that same person is the type demanding his student loans be paid off.

          4. It never ceases to amaze me how people get themselves into mountains of debt for useless majors. Perhaps these are the same people who think they will be “in charge” after the Republic is overthrown. At least under capitalism they can make coffee or wait on tables. Under the new order if they are useless they will simply be lined up against a wall and shot.

          5. Some people are just stupid. My mother in law got her degree in education when she was old enough to to better, and she think student loan forgiveness is going to be the greatest thing. She’s a very hard worker, but the dots just don’t connect.

            There are, of course, plenty of radical idiots; however, there are also plenty of hard working, naïve idiots. I think the later are the favorite of the government because they just put up and shut up without drawing too much attention.

          6. he think student loan forgiveness is going to be the greatest thing

            I’m still not convinced it’s going to happen.

      2. “It wasn’t that long ago that $950 a month got you your own rental apartment, which you didn’t have to share with strangers.”

        In Palm Beach Gardens / Jupiter Fl. $650 a month got you a 2/2 half duplex or apartment in a decent hood in 2001. That number was $500 from the early 80s through 2000 when the insanity started.

        Speaking of insanity, I just picked up a couple of dinners, a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk at Publix for about the same amount of money I paid for an old Maverick that I drove to and from work for over a year back in 83.

        2. The cheapest car I ever bought was $100, and it was drivable. That would be at least one week’s groceries today, or a month’s rent back then.

  24. That carbon isn’t going to reduce itself, you know.

    Boston University CREATES a new Covid strain that has an 80% kill rate — echoing dangerous experiments feared to have started pandemic

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11323677/Outrage-Boston-University-CREATES-Covid-strain-80-kill-rate.html

    US researchers have developed a new lethal Covid strain in a laboratory – echoing the type of experiments many fear started the pandemic.

    The mutant variant — which is a hybrid of Omicron and the original Wuhan virus — killed 80 percent of mice infected with it at Boston University.

    When a similar group of rodents were exposed to the standard Omicron strain, however, they all survived and only experienced ‘mild’ symptoms.

    1. “The mutant variant — which is a hybrid of Omicron and the original Wuhan virus — killed 80 percent of mice infected with it at Boston University.”

      – Gain of function viral research is alive and well.
      – Here a Chimera, there a Chimera, everywhere a Chimera, Chimera…
      – For comparison purposes, the Ebola virus death rate is 50%+
      – Is this research also funded by NIH?
      – Zero risk of escape.
      – Playing with matches.
      – Running with scissors.
      – No need for tactical nukes.
      – Boston is the new Wuhan.
      – No “lessons learned” from the recent pandemic I guess.
      – Nothing to see here. Move along.

      —

      Quotes from “Jurassic Park”, 1993 (A movie about dinosaurs running amuck)

      John Hammond: All major theme parks have delays. When they opened Disneyland in 1956, nothing worked!
      Dr. Ian Malcolm: Yeah, but, John, if The Pirates of the Caribbean breaks down, the pirates don’t eat the tourists.

      Dr. Ian Malcolm: God help us, we’re in the hands of engineers.

      Dr. Ian Malcolm: If I may… Um, I’ll tell you the problem with the scientific power that you’re using here, it didn’t require any discipline to attain it. You read what others had done and you took the next step. You didn’t earn the knowledge for yourselves, so you don’t take any responsibility for it. You stood on the shoulders of geniuses to accomplish something as fast as you could, and before you even knew what you had, you patented it, and packaged it, and slapped it on a plastic lunchbox, and now
      [bangs on the table]
      Dr. Ian Malcolm: you’re selling it, you wanna sell it. Well…
      John Hammond: I don’t think you’re giving us our due credit. Our scientists have done things which nobody’s ever done before…
      Dr. Ian Malcolm: Yeah, yeah, but your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn’t stop to think if they should.

      1. Here a Chimera, there a Chimera, everywhere a Chimera, Chimera…

        Hybrid is not the same as chimera.

        1. – RPR

          “Hybrid is not the same as chimera.”

          – OK, I’ll defer to the resident viral expert here on the HBB! Thanks for the clarification.

          – Whatever it is, it sounds like sketchy research to me.

        2. …a fire-breathing female monster with a lion’s head, a goat’s body, and a serpent’s tail.

          Big deal. We have those paper masks to protect us.

    3. The mutant variant — which is a hybrid of Omicron and the original Wuhan virus — killed 80 percent of mice infected with it at Boston University.

      When a similar group of rodents were exposed to the standard Omicron strain, however, they all survived and only experienced ‘mild’ symptoms.

      Did they try it on jabbed mice? Or did the jabbed mice die before they could be exposed to the virus?

    4. Read the whole article, folks.


      The scientists admit the hybrid virus is unlikely to be as deadly in humans as it was in mice.

      This is because the specific breed of lab mice used are very susceptible to severe Covid disease. Mice and humans also have very different immune responses to the virus

      2. This is because the specific breed of lab mice used are very susceptible to severe Covid disease. Mice and humans also have very different immune responses to the virus

        Three things in that statement jump out telling me that these people are too stupid (suspension of logical process) to be doing anything more sophisticated than closely supervised manual labor.

    1. Is it safe to assume those Ukrainian crisis actors are being paid with Biden $ Bucks “for as long as it takes”?

    1. A democrat voter dream date….. this is the end result of turning your state and local govt over to people who can’t perform math and/or haven’t built a thing in their life.

    2. Yup, that’s the “fashion district” on San Pedro street. A little further up the road is “skid row.”

  31. Leak: Hunter Biden Attained $40M Real Estate Deal with Russian Billionaire While Joe Biden Was VP

    WENDELL HUSEBØ
    17 Oct 2022

    Hunter Biden reached a $40 million real estate deal in 2012 with Russian billionaire and wife of the former mayor of Moscow, Yelena Baturina, while President Joe Biden was vice president.

    The massive deal is connected to a previously reported $3.5 million fee Baturina paid Hunter’s real estate entity to access the American business market, the Daily Mail reported Monday from documents obtained by an anti-corruption group, the Kazakhstani Initiative on Asset Recovery.

    The $40 million real estate deal was structured as a part of a pooled real estate fund to be allocated into long-term investments Hunter identified as profitable in the United States. Such investment vehicles are common among sophisticated investors and experienced fund managers. Due to the complexity of a fund’s transactions, the entity is often subject to stringent disclosures with government oversight agencies.

    “Rosemont Realty has entered into property acquisition contracts for $212,580,000,” Hunter’s prospectus read, according to screenshots given to the Kazakhstani Initiative on Asset Recovery via Baturina’s brother Kenes Rakishev, who is a connected Kazakh businessman and partner of Hunter’s.

    In 2015, Rakishev was photographed with Hunter and then-Vice President Joe Biden at Cafe Milano in Washington, DC, one of the 17 instances Joe Biden has been involved in the Biden family business:

    https://www.breitbart.com/

  32. I have sad news for recipients of up to $20,000 in student debt relief: That amount is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of buying an overpriced shack using a 30-year mortgage with a 7% interest rate.

    It’s a good time to be a banker. It is not so good to be a prospective home debtor.

    1. We were at a car shop this morning. The mechanic is working on a brand new Land Rover EV. The owner, a disabled vet, paid roughly $250K, $100K over MSRP, and financed $90K at 10%! It was all white, including the interior, and having a bunch of after-market things added to. The mechanic said he’s been having problems hiring, even someone to wash cars at $25/hr. My husband said that the appliance dealer that he uses is also having problems hiring so deliveries are out further than usual.

      1. “The owner, a disabled vet, paid roughly $250K, $100K over MSRP, and financed $90K at 10%!”

        Lemme guess, Traumatic Brain Injury?

    1. Fortune
      Larry Summers thinks quiet quitters are ruining the economy
      Will Daniel
      Mon, October 17, 2022 at 5:08 PM·4 min read

      Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is worried that “quiet quitters” are hurting U.S. worker productivity.

      A veteran economist who previously served as president of Harvard University and chief economist at the World Bank, Summers is an unlikely figure to be discussing the new phrase that has caught fire on social media.

      But in response to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman’s Friday New York Times op-ed, the 67-year-old said that he believes “quiet quitting,” an informal term for people who give up on going above and beyond at their jobs and just do the bare minimum, is one of the key reasons that U.S. workers’ productivity fell 4.1% in the second quarter.

      The term “quiet quitting” took off on platforms like TikTok and Instagram earlier this year. After years of receiving “rise and grind” and “lean in” work advice, 80% of Gen Z and millennial workers say the trend appeals to them.

      Summers fears that these quiet quitters will exacerbate already elevated inflation, which came in at 8.2% in September, forcing the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates and spark a recession.

      “Given dismal productivity growth, likely caused by quiet quitting, wage inflation will have to come down significantly if sustained months near 2% inflation is to be attained,” Summers wrote in a Monday tweet. “I do not understand the basis for believing this is likely without a meaningful recession.”
      …
      https://www.yahoo.com/video/larry-summers-thinks-quiet-quitters-220849889.html

      1. It’s a nice story to shift the blame for an incipient recession from policymakers who should own it to the workers who will suffer.

  35. Is it safe to assume that inflation is contained, and interest rates are nearing their peak levels?

    1. Yahoo
      Bloomberg
      Mark Mobius Warns US Interest Rates Will Hit 9% If Inflation Persists
      Vildana Hajric and Guy Johnson
      Mon, October 17, 2022 at 12:55 PM·2 min read
      In this article:

      (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation has veteran fund manager Mark Mobius warning that interest rates will soar to 9%.

      “If inflation is 8%, the playbook says you’ve got to raise rates higher than inflation, which means 9%,” the co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners told Bloomberg TV on Monday. While policy makers may not hike so aggressively should consumer prices soften, the 86-year-old investor said he doesn’t see inflation receding “anytime soon.”

      The forecast is likely a reference of the Taylor Rule, a model which suggests an optimal policy rate by weighing price pressures and the labor market. The Fed is under pressure to handle the hottest inflation in 40 years after last week’s reading of September consumer prices came in above expectations. Other inflation readings have also remained elevated despite the Fed’s recent rate increases.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-mobius-warns-us-interest-165250875.html

      2. The Fed is under pressure to handle the hottest inflation in 40 years

        Their fingerprints are already all over it.

    2. Today’s Mortgage Rates: October 17, 2022—Rates Keep Climbing
      Andrea Riquier
      Forbes Advisor Staff
      Rachel Witkowski
      editor
      Published: Oct 17, 2022, 9:12am

      Today’s average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.24%, up 0.19% from the previous week.

      Borrowers may be able to save on interest costs by going with a 15-year fixed mortgage, as they generally have a lower rate than that of a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan. The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.47%. But keep in mind that you’ll have higher monthly payments since you’re paying off your loan in half the time (15 years versus 30 years).
      …
      https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/mortgage-rates-10-17-22/

      1. “Borrowers may be able to save on interest costs by going with a 15-year fixed mortgage, as they generally have a lower rate than that of a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan.”

        That’s not the main reason, which is that you shrink the principal much faster by paying off your loan in 15 years than giving your lender 30 years to suck your blood.

    3. The Wall Street Journal
      Economy
      High Inflation Darkens Global Economic Outlook
      Rising borrowing costs and constrained energy supplies heighten chances for recession in next year
      By Andrew Duehren and Yuka Hayashi
      Oct. 16, 2022 7:00 am ET

      WASHINGTON—Policy makers around the world see rising risks that the global economic slowdown could turn into a steeper slump due to strong inflation, high energy costs and climbing interest rates.

      Another bad U.S. inflation report last week is likely to keep the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates at a rapid clip. That could help spur the U.S. dollar higher, further elevating the cost of imports and debt service for many countries. Key energy producers are crimping supply, feeding price pressures and slowing economic activity, particularly in Europe. New data from China showed consumer spending falling sharply, another sign of cooling economic growth.
      …

    1. The Financial Times
      UK financial crisis
      BoE set to further delay sales of government bonds until markets calm
      Central bank expected to bow to investor calls for new pause to start of £838bn gilt selldown
      Bank of England
      A Bank of England shift would put on hold the start of the UK’s unwinding of quantitative easing — a process other central banks have begun to reduce swollen balance sheets
      Chris Giles and Tommy Stubbington in London yesterday

      The Bank of England is set to delay the sale of billions of pounds of government bonds in a bid to foster greater stability in gilt markets following the UK’s failed “mini” Budget.

      The bank had already delayed the start of its sale of £838bn of gilts bought under its quantitative easing programme from October 6 to the end of this month. It is now expected to bow to investor pressure for a further pause until the market becomes calmer.

      The Financial Times has learnt that the bank’s top officials have come to this view after judging the gilts market to be “very distressed” in recent weeks, a view backed by its Financial Policy Committee.

      Investors have also warned that the central bank’s plans to begin selling bonds in its portfolio at the end of this month could destabilise markets.

      Although 30-year gilt yields have fallen from their recent high of more than 5 per cent to 4.32 per cent on Monday, they remain well above the 3.75 per cent reached before the mini-Budget.

      “I’m not sure it’s wise for them to go straight away because the market’s so fragile at the moment,” said Jim Leaviss, chief investment officer for public fixed income at M&G Investments.
      …

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