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Falling Property Values Could Trigger A Domino Effect

A report from Click Orlando in Florida. “A market once saturated by bidding wars is now seeing fewer buyers closing deals. In Orlando, home sales dropped 18.3%, with the Orlando Regional Realtor Association reporting 2,717 homes had been sold in September — 607 fewer than were sold in August. According to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, in August, the median price was $377,750. In September, that price dropped to $365,000. ‘We are starting to feel the impact of these rising interest rates in the Orlando housing market,’ Team leader at Keller Williams Classic Realty Shonn McCloud said. ‘Buyers are pulling back a little bit more.'”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Sales are down. Prices are leveling off. New listings are plummeting. A report out Tuesday from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors shows that it is all but certain now: the region’s long-hot housing market is cooling off fast. Only 1,092 homes were sold in September in the 64 cities and towns GBAR tracks, a 12.7 percent drop from the same month last year. Condominium sales slid by 39.6 percent, from 1,207 sold in September 2021 to 729 last month.”

“Perhaps even more indicative of how quickly things are cooling, the median price of a single-family home in the region was $763,000 in September. It was the third straight month prices have ticked downward, since an all-time high of $899,950 in June.”

WTKR in Virginia. “These days, there are a lot of questions surrounding housing in Hampton Roads. Christy Allen, an associate broker and realtor, said it’s an ‘interesting time’ for home buying. ‘A year ago, if you listed your house you may have had 20 offers. You were not offering closing cost assistance, you were not offering any concessions to the buyer, where now sellers are a little more willing to help the buyer out. We are back to negotiating. We’re back to asking for home inspections,’ she said.”

The Review Journal. “Southern Nevada apartment rents dipped in recent months as vacancies climbed, a new report shows, in more signs of Las Vegas’ slowing housing market. Overall, the change in Southern Nevadans’ rent checks has changed considerably this year, and prices are expected to keep sliding. The average vacancy rate during the third quarter was 7.5 percent, up from 3.6 percent a year earlier, the association said. the rental market overall has hit the brakes amid a broader slowdown in Southern Nevada’s housing market. With buyers facing a sharp jump in mortgage rates this year, home sales have plunged from 2021 levels, inventory has skyrocketed, and sellers have been slashing their prices.”

Multi-Housing News on Arizona. “Phoenix’s economy has been in expansion mode since late last year. Consequences of the recent substantial supply volume reverberated in rent growth—moderating since the start of the year and up just 0.3 percent on a T3 basis through July, to $1,690—and pushed occupancy down 110 basis points in the 12 months ending in June, to 95.3 percent. Developers delivered 7,701 units in 2022 through July and had another 34,700 units under construction. Meanwhile, investment activity exceeded $7.5 billion, above the volume recorded during the same period last year, with the price per unit surpassing the $300,000 mark following a 48 percent annual increase.”

From Yahoo Finance. “There are some signs the market may be cooling off. Yahoo Finance contributor Vera Gibbons joins us with the details. ‘While we are seeing rent growth continue to rise in some of those peripheral markets outside of the core cities, like Cambridge, Massachusetts, Fremont, California, Tempe, Arizona to name three, we are seeing an overall leveling off, or plateauing, if you will, in rents in many of the other markets throughout the country. I was speaking to the CEO of Zephyr, and he said that in over half of the cities he actually follows, he is, in fact, seeing a plateauing of those rents. Places like Nashville, Tennessee, a lot of the Florida markets, for example, they’re coming down.'”

“‘I was speaking to one renter who said her previous landlord, she couldn’t even get him on the phone to fix a leaky faucet, and it went on for, like, four months. And she said she’s since moved into a different location, has a different landlord. And the landlord now is so anxious to get her to stay that she’s even bringing her fresh flowers. So–‘”

From Candy’s Dirt in Texas. “In July of this year, I published a piece warning of a coming washout in the mortgage industry. A quick check of the list of mortgage layoffs, merges, and closures reveal the wave I predicted has occurred. I still caution against overreaction and believe this is simply our industry making a U-turn. Banks, lenders, and brokers amassed staff and salespeople for years as demand for mortgages grew, and this dramatic downturn in real estate has forced our companies to make painful decisions.”

“Offers on existing homes have fallen drastically, and days on market have increased to more than one month in most local markets. Despite this, home prices seem to be holding on stubbornly to the gains made in the past two years. Anecdotally, I’m seeing builder ads offering $30,000 or more in incentives, a signal they are feeling the slowdown.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “San Francisco’s downtown economic core has been struggling since the start of the pandemic, and there is one idea to help it that just won’t die: Convert empty office buildings into housing. But if creating housing from office space is such a good idea, then why hasn’t it happened? Local developers generally say it’s too expensive and difficult here — even though it can cost less than bottom-up construction in some cases. ‘In the end, San Francisco is going to have to figure out why people should come there,’ said Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities at the University of Toronto, ‘and that means rethinking itself entirely, probably.'”

From CBC News. “New numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association confirm what buyers, sellers and owners have known for a while: the housing market is in a funk. Prices are down on an annual basis, too, with the average selling price of a home listed on the MLS system going for $640,479. That’s down by 6.6 per cent compared to a year ago, and down by more than 21 per cent from the all-time high of $816,720 reached in February. That was before the Bank of Canada began its aggressive campaign of rate hikes to rein in runaway inflation.”

“Uncertainty in the rental market is one reason why Earl Hypolite and Naomi Zitt-James say they’re looking to buy a house of their own, sooner rather than later. The couple rents an apartment in downtown Toronto, but with a seven-month-old baby and a large dog, they feel it’s time to make the leap. While they have no imminent plans to buy, they have been looking at properties outside the city, where prices have come down a lot. ‘I’m feeling a lot better now that I know that the prices have come down a little bit,’ Zitt-James said. ‘I just feel a little sad for those people that went in and got those houses only to have it come down.'”

The Jamaica Observer. “Head of litigation at Myers, Fletcher & Gordon Gavin Goffe said, ‘as lawyers who have a practice which touches and concerns real estate, we’re concerned about regulation. Not the fiscal regulation but in terms of the construction business and how that particular business is regulated or is not regulated.  We have a construction boom and we don’t have a booming regulator who is at the wheel making sure that we don’t end up with what we’re all afraid of, which is a burst bubble. The likelihood of this construction bubble bursting is made greater by the fact that we don’t really have the kind of laws, regulations and enforcement of those laws and regulations as we ought to have.'”

“He continued, ‘When we have these high interest rates, it also affects the developers, the cost to borrow to fund that development goes up. There’s only a limited extent to which they [developers] can pass on this increased cost to the consumers. The fact is that these apartment buildings which are where the market is right now are already so expensive there’s only so much more that they can go.'”

“‘So where do they go to find/make the super profits that they have been making for the last five years?’ the lawyer asked. “They’re gonna cut corners to try and make sure that they finish the buildings quicker so that they can start servicing their debts quicker. They’re going to use the Chinese because we all know that the Chinese have a reputation of doing things much quicker than Jamaican construction labourers. That has its own ripple effect in terms of employment,’ he pointed out.”

“He also disclosed that inflation pressures are also causing developers to be dishonest. ‘They’re also going to lie. Have you ever seen an advertisement for an apartment and it says they are selling one bedroom, two and a half bathroom and you wonder how that make sense? It’s because they intend to convert it into a two or three bedroom unit but if they were to tell that to the regulator they wouldn’t get approval because it would breach density requirements. If you have a three-bedroom unit then you have to have more parking, more amenity space, things like sewage all of those things are affected by the number of rooms that you might have, so they lie,’ Goffe explained.”

From Bloomberg. “Even in Sweden few people knew much about Castellum AB. Yet the hurried sale of 40 million shares in the property company earlier this month is now seen by some as a harbinger of things to come in the European property market. The seller, M2 Asset Management AB, cited falling market prices that affected its ‘ability to fulfill its financial commitments’ for the decision. The dumping of the stake by a major shareholder, is just the latest episode in a tumultuous year in which Sweden’s property companies have seen their stock market values halve.”

“There is little expectation of any respite. The sector is facing $10 billion in debt repayments next year, with refinancing demands of about $41 billion by the end of 2026, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The funding squeeze faced by Sweden’s property companies stems from their floating-rate bonds and near-term maturities in an environment with rising interest rates.”

“Anders Kvist, a senior adviser to the director of the Swedish FSA, said the watchdog has been warning about the high levels of debt in commercial real estate companies for at least four years. ‘Falling property values could trigger a domino effect,’ Kvist said. ‘If property values ​​fall, the available security on the loan decreases. This can lead to demands for more collateral and in turn force distressed selling.'”

The South China Morning Post. “China’s frustrated middle class are feeling the pinch. They are cutting back on luxury items, but rather than investing the wealth they now have at their disposal, they are instead hanging on to it amid feelings of nsecurity. ‘I always comforted myself with the fact that the appreciation of a house in a big city in China is more certain than anything else,’ said Lin Xiaoxia, a Shanghai-based operations director. ‘But now that houses and monthly household income are starting to decrease, investing abroad or even buying gold [exchange-traded funds] is no longer practical for ordinary middle-class people.'”

“‘It’s horrible to see the property price even just slightly drop or freeze when your family is earning about 35,000 yuan (US$4,870), but have to pay 40,000 yuan of mortgage payments monthly. And it’s happening to me,’ Xiong said. ‘And the more horrible thing is that it will very possibly last for years in future.'”

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This Post Has 135 Comments

  2. ‘Anecdotally, I’m seeing builder ads offering $30,000 or more in incentives, a signal they are feeling the slowdown’

    Candy’s Dirt is located in Dallas Fort Worth, but sometimes they don’t mention it. IIRC it started as a blog by Candy a long time ago, and grew into a RE site.

  3. ‘Developers delivered 7,701 units in 2022 through July and had another 34,700 units under construction. Meanwhile, investment activity exceeded $7.5 billion, above the volume recorded during the same period last year, with the price per unit surpassing the $300,000 mark following a 48 percent annual increase’

    Yeah, that’s not bat sh$t crazy or anything.

    1. Phoenix is the epicenter of the stuccobelt and their main industry is the Mexican invasion. This model seems to work fine when worthless desert land, fuel, and water are cheap and rates are low but the only value investment left there now is a bus ticket to somewhere else. I see a dystopian hellhole in their future. Some might argue that the future is now.

  5. He also disclosed that inflation pressures are also causing developers to be dishonest. ‘They’re also going to lie.’

    That’s what they do in Canada Gavin. Actually pretty much everywhere.

  6. Washington Post — McCarthy signals GOP-led House likely to oppose more aid to Ukraine (10/18/2022):

    “Since the invasion in February, the majority of congressional Republicans and Democrats have united in authorizing billions of dollars in U.S. military and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv as a geopolitical and moral stand against Vladimir Putin’s aggression.

    McCarthy, who could be House speaker if Republicans triumph, indicated that that could end in a GOP-led House.

    “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” he recently told Punchbowl News. “They just won’t do it.”

    https://archive.ph/zKvnd

    LOL@ Zelensky’s parents live in a $8 million house with a $12,000 a month security detail, paid for by U.S. taxpayers.

    #Winning

    1. riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiigggggggggggggghhhhttttttttttt

      they have been voting to grift more money almost unanimously since Feb but once they are in power they will stop. Ummmmmmmm you could stop now. but noooooooooooo

      it’s all a giant grift.

      But it is an interesting sign of how the window may be shifting.

        1. Military aid is dwindling fast.

          The Euros are running out of stuff to give them. I read that Germany only has enough ammo and ordinance for two days should the Russians invade.

          2. “I read that Germany only has enough ammo and ordinance for two days should the Russians invade.”

            By design. The rest of Europe was not in a hurry to see industrial Germany rearm itself beyond a minimal defensive posture. In fact, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau wanted to de-industrialize Germany back to a potato farmland after their WWII defeat.

  7. ‘In the end, San Francisco is going to have to figure out why people should come there’

    Any ideas to help Karen out? Bum urine? Getting yer car window broken out?

    1. The homeless problem will go away, once the last vestiges of San Francisco wealth and good will to support its continuation are gone.

  8. ‘the hurried sale of 40 million shares in the property company earlier this month is now seen by some as a harbinger of things to come in the European property market’

    Not a big deal right? How many people live in europistan, a few thousand?

    1. What Are Bear Market Rallies, and Do They Last?
      By Jacob Sonenshine
      Updated Oct. 19, 2022 8:33 am ET / Original Oct. 18, 2022 2:01 pm ET

      The stock market is rallying. Don’t expect it to continue.

      All three major indexes have gained for two straight days. The S&P 500 SPX (+1.14%) rose more than 2% Monday and was up another 1.1% Tuesday afternoon, but it could be only a so-called bear-market rally.

      That is when stocks stage a brief—and often large—upswing in the middle of a larger bear market, or decline of at least 20%. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down about 22% from its record closing high, hit in early January.

      Behind that slide, of course, is the Federal Reserve’s effort to fight inflation by raising interest rates to cut demand for goods and services. Corporate profits are likely to suffer as the economy slows, while higher rates reduce the current discounted value of earnings that are expected to arrive in coming years.
      …
      Next:
      Larry Summers Says U.K. Debt Market Stress Could Be the ‘Tremor’ Signaling Global Economic ‘Earthquake’

      https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-stocks-are-rising-51666116036?noredirect=y

      1. You know stock HODLers are fooked when financial writers trot out discussion of the effects of higher interest rates on future earnings and present values. Time to dust off that finance textbook, folks…

  10. ‘And the landlord now is so anxious to get her to stay that she’s even bringing her fresh flowers. So–’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now?

  11. ‘the median price of a single-family home in the region was $763,000 in September. It was the third straight month prices have ticked downward, since an all-time high of $899,950 in June’

    Good thing everybody put 20% down!

  12. ‘While they have no imminent plans to buy, they have been looking at properties outside the city, where prices have come down a lot. ‘I’m feeling a lot better now that I know that the prices have come down a little bit…I just feel a little sad for those people that went in and got those houses only to have it come down’

    Cheer up Niomi, they will walk away just in time to crush prices on yer shack!

    2. Tulsi Gabbard is a pro-abortion, pro-illegal immigration (see her stance on DACA), pro-gun control, liberal shill. Just because she knows woke is bad doesn’t mean I want anything to do with her.

  14. The Hill — Biden is viewed as a drag on Democratic midterm hopes (10/19/2022):

    “With three weeks to go until Election Day, Democrats say they are worried that Biden’s shaky approval ratings will end up hurting their chances in the House and Senate races.

    And as inflation soars and fear of a recession continues to mount, Democrats say the president will end up being “the fall guy,” as one source put it, even if some in the party don’t think the criticism is entirely fair.”

    https://thehill.com/homenews/3695028-biden-is-viewed-as-a-drag-on-democratic-midterm-hopes/

    How much more are you paying for food now versus in January 2021?

    I estimate my grocery bills are up at least 40%, if not more.

    “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

    1. I estimate my grocery bills are up at least 40%, if not more.

      Yup. I’ve been compensating by eating out less.

      1. Food is less than 10% of my budget, so a 40% increase is only a 4% strain. I sometimes think of the days when I had four growing teens under my roof.

      2. “I’ve been compensating by eating out less.”

        Think of all those preservatives you no longer ingest.

    2. The price of eggs has doubled. Meat is up ~$2 p/lb, so we only buy it on sale. There are more BOGOs on chicken breasts. Basically if one wants animal protein you’re paying premium prices even if it’s factory farmed animal protein.

        1. It could be worse. You could have paid a grossly inflated price for a rapidly depreciating asset in the last 20 years, in this case a house, and then double down on those losses by financing for decades……… ultimately subjecting yourself to a lifetime diet of CraterTaters And Crow.

          Pleasant Shade, TN Housing Prices Crater 23% As Rural Lot And Land Prices Plunge Becoming Increasingly Worthless

          https://www.movoto.com/tn/37145/market-trends/

    2. Nolte: Republican Kari Lake Leads in Arizona Governor’s Race

      JOHN NOLTE
      19 Oct 2022

      Republican MAGA superstar Kari Lake is up by three points over Democrat Katie Hobbs, per a Trafalgar Group/Daily Wire poll.

      This same poll also shows Republican Blake Masters surging against incumbent Democrat and Biden puppet Mark Kelly for Arizona’s U.S. Senate race:

      According to the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Lake has led in all but one poll taken in October. She’s held a stubborn three-point lead in three polls (including this one). Hobbs, Arizona’s secretary of state, has only led in a single October poll, and that was by just one point.

      Overall, in that poll of polls, RealClearPolitics has Lake up 1.6 points, 47.8 to 46.2 percent.

      The good news for Lake is that it’s Trafalgar showing her up by three. Trafalgar is the most accurate pollster in the country right now.

          1. I don’t have a land line. Living on the boat made me realize it wasn’t necessary.

            Maybe it’s the call centers that use land lines. That would allow a server to que up their calls out.

  16. I got a boat load of puddle watching links from our friend in Hawaii:

    Probably my favorite reply of many great ones on my Airbnb comment thread. Literally no one can tell if he’s being sarcastic or serious, and that alone says all you need to know about the ridiculousness of Airbnb chore lists and host demands 😂😂😂
    Quote Tweet

    Replying to @texasrunnerDFW
    Saw a decrease in listings this summer so I dropped a few of the more extreme chore requirements, ie mow the lawn, brush/vacuum the pool and the bookings went back to normal. The market is still strong but you can’t expect renters to do as much

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1582536847833456640

    Also, sorry to belabor my point, but it’s actually hilarious for these wealthy property hoarders to wonder publicly why no one wants to stay in a $400/night room in Cincinnati during a major economic downturn. Just a complete failure to read the room.

    https://twitter.com/xanabon/status/1582058290434826240

    Airbnb landlords are like “how come no one wants to book my house??” maybe it’s bc you evicted a family of 4, converted their home into a shoddy duplex, filled it with clearance bin TJ Maxx decor, and charge guests $200 for a cleaning fee, all bc you don’t feel like getting a job

    https://twitter.com/xanabon/status/1582055054189551617

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    A Perfect Storm For Private Mortgage Lending
    For those Homeowners with Private Mortgages there’s trouble on the horizon
    And it starts with Renewal
    Let’s assume if the borrower was lucky enough to have 5.99% Rate from last year that rate becomes 9.99 to 11.99% on renewal

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1582369893080440834

    From a friend who works at a big bank: Thousands have reached the trigger rate and can’t afford their mortgage anymore. Many need to sell & will be renting, as rent is lower than their current interest payments.

    https://twitter.com/nasmadotali/status/1580234450952421376

    How is the American consumer spending more money over the last year despite inflation outpacing their wages for 18 consecutive months? They’re saving less (savings rate at lowest level since 2008) and borrowing more (consumer credit increasing at fastest pace since 2011).

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1581766598914117632

    Used car prices are now down 10% over the past year, the largest YoY decline on record with data going back to 2009. This was a leading indicator of higher inflation rates in 2020 and the recent downturn is likely a leading indicator of lower inflation rates to come.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1582386573332467713

    Big Bank 3rd Quarter Net Income, YoY % Change…
    Bank of America $BAC: -8%
    JP Morgan Chase $JPM: -17%
    Citigroup $C: -25%
    Morgan Stanley $MS: -29%
    Wells Fargo $WFC: -31%
    Goldman Sachs $GS: -43%

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1582471752059273216

    A license to be a barber = 1 year course
    A license to sell real estate = 7 day course

    https://twitter.com/MalcolmJess/status/1581825884742307841

    1. “Airbnb landlords are like “how come no one wants to book my house??” maybe it’s bc you evicted a family of 4, converted their home into a shoddy duplex, filled it with clearance bin TJ Maxx decor, and charge guests $200 for a cleaning fee, all bc you don’t feel like getting a job.”

      – Yup! Such is the sad state of the STR ‘business’ model, requiring a complete gutting of local zoning laws as well.
      – I personally boycott STRs.
      – Estimated 2.5M STRs in U.S. alone. Housing removed from market. Driven largely by speculators and Fed-induced price appreciation.
      – Now have Fed-induced price depreciation, decades high inflation, and a rapidly weakening eCONomy.
      – Not so many vacays, plus STRs have no value prop. Cleaning fees? Mow the lawn? Really?
      – STR owners will be forced to sell soon. What happens when 2.5M additional units hit the market? Price is set by comps. Price is set at the margin.
      – #HousingBust coming.
      – Get a job. Shanananana.

      1. I stayed at a beach house this summer. As we shopped around, the cleaning fees varied quite a bit. When you enumerated the shacks, they only showed the rental fee. You would have to dig into the listing to find the cleaning and other junk fees, which were as high as several hundred dollars for a one week rental, but some were lower. And all of them had a cleaning fee. You had to be out by 10 AM so their crew could come in, change the sheets and towels, and do a half azzed job of cleaning, so the next renters could move in by 4PM.

      2. “Price is set by comps. Price is set at the margin.”

        Price is set by an appraiser who is told by a lender and realtor what to price it at.

        Lets get that straight.

  17. Literally most real-estate agents will tell you now is the time to buy

    https://twitter.com/brianschardt/status/1582386800647028739

    “We lose nurses and teachers who grew up here because they can’t find anywhere to live”
    This is happening across the globe, to real working class families
    #airbnb

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1582567070847279104

    they blew a call? Tw*t talks about the Fed like it’s a junior trader at a pod shop….they f*cking blew the house is more like it…It was obvious to the blind that inflation was getting totally out if control…they are worthless as a leadership and organization + they lied…

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1582407063618977797

    The real issue is the total lack of accountability of these Central Banks, not only the Fed. Fed and ECB for being total monpol failures. BoE for being a regulatory failure. BoJ for being a joke. Politicians get sacked at the urns. These clowns thrive unchecked once in.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1582409982871420928

    Here’s an example: By June 30, 2022, an estimated 76% of #Utah residents couldn’t afford a median priced home even if they were crazy enough to buy. And #UT is a wealthy state (top-10 median household income). That “76% unable” will be even higher today!

    https://twitter.com/mcspacface/status/1582435925883514881

    Over half of #Airbnb’s current listings have been added since 2020

    https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane/status/1582420915756757000

    While delinquency and forbearance rates are seemingly leveling off into a steady, familiar pattern following the expiration of COVID-19-related relief, some worrying signs have appeared in redefaults, with negative implications about the effectiveness of loan modifications.

    Among loans that went 90 days past due at some point during the pandemic — whether or not homeowners received federal forbearance relief — the redefault rate hit 12% following loss mitigation procedures as of Sept. 6, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The share is up from 10% three months earlier.

    While it was “encouraging that redefault rates have not spiked, as might be expected,” the rise “could be concerning” under what are considered favorable market conditions, analysts wrote in the report produced by the Risk Assessment, Data Analysis and Research Group of the Philadelphia Fed, which used data from Black Knight.

    https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/redefaults-of-covid-era-delinquent-loans-rise-to-12

    1. “Mortgage applications are now into their fourth month of declines, dropping to the lowest level since 1997, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.94 percent – the highest level since 2002,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s (Market Bankers Association) Vice President, and Deputy Chief Economist. “The speed and level to which rates have climbed this year have greatly reduced refinance activity and exacerbated existing affordability challenges in the purchase market. Residential housing activity ranging from new housing starts to home sales have been on downward trends coinciding with the rise in rates. The current 30-year fixed rate is now well over three percentage points higher than a year ago, and both purchase and refinance applications were down 38 percent and 86 percent over the year, respectively.”

      https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/10192022-mortgage-application-volume

  18. Where’s The Real Estate Market Headed?
    Charleston
    Oct 18, 2022 Where’s the housing market headed?

    Today, buyer activity is down and housing inventory is up. That’s a big change from where we were the last year and it’s happened quickly. Active listings are homes available for sale have increased more than 26% compared to this time last year, and at the same time, buyer demand, has decreased almost 17%. We call this an inflection point.

    Over the past two years, we saw a massive amount of demand and not enough homes available for the amount of people wanting to buy them. But today, the market looks very different as those two factors undergo a shift.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhiC6Wj7CR0

    1:25.

  19. Yahoo
    Fortune
    When to expect the housing market downturn to conclude, according to Wells Fargo
    Lance Lambert
    Tue, October 18, 2022 at 3:39 AM·3 min read

    Historically speaking, most U.S. recessions arrive after a period of rate tightening by the Federal Reserve. As the Fed raises interest rates to tame inflation, it begins to cause economic activity to contract. Of course, “Fed-induced recessions” usually start in the housing market.

    We’re already seeing it.

    Not long after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the U.S. housing market slipped into a housing downturn. That housing downturn has seen new- and existing-home sales slump across the country. In some markets, like Seattle and Las Vegas, it has already spurred a home price correction.

    The silver lining for agents and builders? Usually, the U.S. housing market is FIFO: first into the recession and first out of the recession. The big exception was the housing bubble, which saw the U.S. housing market slip into a downturn in 2006. That downturn, which lasted through 2011, was three times as long as the Great Recession.
    …
    https://news.yahoo.com/still-early-innings-housing-market-083905781.html

    1. “The big exception was the housing bubble, which saw the U.S. housing market slip into a downturn in 2006. That downturn, which lasted through 2011, was three times as long as the Great Recession.”

      We’re still in the same bubble. The Fed’s Quantitative Easing targeted at housing made it get a lot bigger, and now the bigger bubble is imploding into the volatility vortex.

  21. Videos on crater are off the chart:

    Boise Idaho Real Estate Market Update: October 18, 2022
    Oct 18, 2022 It officially feels like Fall here in Boise Idaho’s booming Treasure Valley. Leaves are falling right alongside local housing prices.

    We are seeing some consistent trending now with MLS data from both August and September.

    The median sales price for homes in Ada County was $540,000 in September, down 4.4% from the month prior. The median sales price dropped for the last four months, but we’ve yet to see a year-over-year decline in overall prices. After peaking at 44.0% in May 2021, annual price growth has trended down and slowed significantly, due in large part to higher mortgage interest rates.

    We are seeing around 38 days on market for single family resale homes and around 41 days on market for new construction homes. For homes priced well, we have also still seen a few multiple offer scenarios.

    Buyer sentiment shows that some buyers are pausing to see how the increased rates are affecting their current buying power. Seller’s are realizing the importance of pricing their homes correctly and that buyer’s are attracted to sellers offering buyer concessions to use to buy down their interest rate. The question we get the most right now from buyers is “Is this the right time to buy” and from sellers “Can I sell my home in this current market”? If you are looking to buy or sell whether now or into the fall or winter please reach out to our team. We’re here to help you navigate the changes and share the opportunities we’re seeing in the Treasure Valley market”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOOZNkMPlzc

    2:12.

    1. After peaking at 44.0% in May 2021, annual price growth has trended down and slowed significantly, due in large part to higher mortgage interest rates.

      A 44% year over year increase in house prices? Unfvckingbelievable. I stayed in the Treasure Valley a few years ago while away on business, I guess it would have been January or Feb 2021. I remember at the time, looking up local real estate prices while I was in the hotel room, and being absolutely staggered by what I saw. There are absolutely no jobs to even remotely support what was going on. This is the worst failure of central bankers in history.

  23. Denver foreclosures jump after 10-year decline
    FOX31 Denver
    Oct 18, 2022 Denver home foreclosures are rising for the first time in two years, according to the county assessor’s office. This shows a reversal in the last two years of white-hot housing markets, but not a crash.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKw6jV02viE

    1 minute. It’s coming from a low base.

  24. How To Price Your Home in a Correcting Market
    Oct 18, 2022 Sellers: News of our housing market’s death has been greatly exaggerated. It’s true that the exploding housing prices we saw in the last two years are behind us, but we aren’t heading for a crash—instead, our market is correcting. This means you can still receive top dollar for your home, but you have to be smart about it. That’s why I’m sharing a few tips to help you price your home the right way in a correcting market.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdg9sIXTlDI

    1:46. It says University Place, WA.

    1. University Place, WA

      This is Tacoma’s west side with very nice neighborhoods overlooking the Puget Sound. Further inland, lots of moldy apartments and 3/2 single family homes.

  26. “And the landlord now is so anxious to get her to stay that she’s even bringing her fresh flowers. So–‘”

    …. and I got DebtDonkeys fetching me Cheetos every day.

    Sarasota, FL Housing Prices Crater 22% YOY As Gulf Coast Florida Housing Market Submerges In A Seething Pot Of Foreclosures And Mortgage Fraud

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/34292/market-trends/

  27. How’s that globalist Quisling regime working out for ya, Aussie renters?

    Eye-watering rental price for ‘room with a poo’ in Surry Hills

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/eyewatering-price-for-room-with-a-poo-in-surry-hills/news-story/0d6c10d3e8e54c67daf7987f31e56cc6

    The insanity of Sydney‘s infamous property market has again been put on display with an inner-city studio apartment listed for rent with the toilet just centimetres away from the kitchen.

    Labelled a “room with a poo”, the small Surry Hills property is listed at an eye-watering $520 a week.

  28. You will eat ze bugs…you will LIKE ze bugs….

    Aldi considers selling edible INSECTS to help families through the cost-of-living crisis

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11331411/Aldi-considers-selling-edible-INSECTS-help-families-cost-living-crisis.html

    Budget supermarket Aldi is considering selling edible insect recipe kits as the cost of living crisis hits families.

    Bugs such as crickets are known to be a cheap and sustainable form of protein.

    Now Aldi is weighing up whether to stock products by Yum Bug, which make the insect recipe kits.

    2. I remember two years ago when eggs were very cheap protein, and they didn’t taste like ship.

  29. ‘We are starting to feel the impact of these rising interest rates in the Orlando housing market,’ Team leader at Keller Williams Classic Realty Shonn McCloud said. ‘Buyers are pulling back a little bit more.’”

    It’s just a gully.

  30. With buyers facing a sharp jump in mortgage rates this year, home sales have plunged from 2021 levels, inventory has skyrocketed, and sellers have been slashing their prices.”

    Ben, I fear we might very well be looking at a bursting housing bubble.

  31. ‘I’m feeling a lot better now that I know that the prices have come down a little bit,’ Zitt-James said. ‘I just feel a little sad for those people that went in and got those houses only to have it come down.’”

    You’re about to become one of those knife-catchers, you imbecile.

  32. Oh the pathos, the tragedy, of parasites and dissemblers having to find real jobs.

    Won’t somebody think of the poor real estate agents?

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/10/wont-somebody-think-of-the-poor-real-estate-agents/

    The latest sets of house price results showed that New Zealand house prices and sales have fallen heavily in response to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) aggressive monetary tightening.

    For example, the leading REINZ House Price Index has plummeted 12.6% from its November 2021 peak, with sales volumes also down 12.9% year-on-year in September.

    The plunge in both house prices and volumes has seen the nation’s real estate agents take a severe haircut, with sales commissions tanking an estimated 31% year-on-year:

      2. Tells you what the building lot was was worth.

        $28,000 for a half acre of desert scrub is ridiculously high.

    2. LOL, good luck with that bubble price, seller!
      I blinked and missed Kingman on my way south to our new rental place in Sierra Vista.
      Ben, are you planning to do another get-together at some point with your loyal readers/posters?

  37. michelle dufay
    @mdufay
    ·
    The Australian government has helpfully offered to pay funeral costs if you die from the COVID “vaccine.”

    https://twitter.com/mdufay/status/1578787455318122496?s=20&t=HuS3dZzJ9iioP0_VAOksrw

    Jonathan Engler 🐭
    @jengleruk
    ·
    Thoughtfully, the Australian Government now includes funeral costs as part of their COVID-19 Vaccine Claims Scheme.

    https://servicesaustralia.gov.au/deceased-covid-19-vaccine-recipient-payments-and-funeral-costs-you-can-claim-through-covid-19?context=55953

    https://twitter.com/jengleruk/status/1578652343939129344?s=20&t=cpaSQ306k-NxlWGyAGabcw

  38. Canadian Inflation Hotter than Expected: 50-75bps Rate Hike Coming?
    Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario
    Oct 19, 2022 #CanadianInflation #CanadaInflation #BankofCanada

    Canada’s inflation rate came in higher than expected, putting increased pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates at its October 26th meeting. With Canadians expecting higher inflation than they did only three months ago, before the Bank raised interest rates, we’re likely to see another 50-75bps in interest rate hikes coming from the Bank of Canada.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfmEdzL4SI4

    5:48.

  41. Was watching an interview with Nigel Farage about the collapse of the Truss government. Basically he said that too many Tories are RINOs and are really Leftists. He and Martin Clarke were flabbergasted that the Tories almost instantly retreated from tax cuts and resuming fracking in the UK.

    I fear this will happen here after a “red wave” next month. The GOP will control the House and Senate and then vote for Democrat bills which Brandon will sign.

    1. why wouldn’t they? that’s what always happens. There is only one party, the uni-party and you (and I) certainly aren’t in it.

  42. British food prices rose at the fastest pace since 1980 last month, driving inflation back to a 40-year high and heaping pressure on the embattled government to balance the books without gutting help for the nation’s poorest residents.

    The Office for National Statistics said Wednesday that food prices jumped 14.6 per cent in the year through September, led by the soaring cost of staples like meat, bread, milk and eggs.

    That pushed consumer price inflation back to 10.1 per cent, the highest since early 1982 and equal to the level last reached in July.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/british-inflation-1.6621890

      1. The Financial Times
        UK inflation
        UK inflation hits 40-year high of 10.1%
        Price rise driven by soaring food costs, piling pressure on government finances
        A picture of someone holding a shopping basket
        Soaring food prices have pushed inflation back up to double digits
        Chris Giles in London 14 hours ago

        Britain’s inflation rate rose to a 40-year high of 10.1 per cent in September, as soaring food costs more than offset price declines at petrol pumps.

        The jump in inflation as measured by the consumer price index exceeded economists’ expectations, rising from 9.9 per cent in August. It was driven by the highest food price increases in decades.

        At more than five times the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, the double-digit rate will also add to pressure on the central bank for a large interest rate rise on November 3.

        The September inflation figures are also particularly important because they are normally used for increasing benefits and pensions the following April.

        After the figures were released on Wednesday, Prime Minister Liz Truss confirmed in the House of Commons that state pensions would rise in line with inflation, but made no similar commitment to non-pensioner benefits.

        With food prices rising at a multi-decade high of 14.6 per cent, economists said poorer families would be hit hardest.

        George Dibb, head of the Centre for Economic Justice at the IPPR think-tank, said the “steeper rise in essentials such as food and drink where prices are now rising at over 14 per cent . . . underlines the need for greater support for the most vulnerable households this winter over and above the energy price cap”.

        The details of the inflation figures showed there was an increase in the core index as well as higher food prices.

        The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated that, with food and energy prices rising fastest, inflation for the lowest-income tenth of the population was 12 per cent compared with 9 per cent for the richest tenth.
        …

      2. The Financial Times
        UK financial crisis
        Bank of England set to further delay sales of government bonds until markets calm
        Central bank expected to bow to investor calls for new pause to start of £838bn gilt selldown
        Bank of England
        A Bank of England shift would put on hold the start of the UK’s unwinding of quantitative easing — a process other central banks have begun to reduce swollen balance sheets
        Chris Giles and Tommy Stubbington in London yesterday

        The Bank of England is set to delay the sale of billions of pounds of government bonds in a bid to foster greater stability in gilt markets following the UK’s failed “mini” Budget.

        The BoE had already delayed the start of its sale of £838bn of gilts bought under its quantitative easing programme from October 6 to the end of this month. It is now expected to bow to investor pressure for a further pause until the market becomes calmer.

        The Financial Times has learnt that the Bank’s top officials have come to this view after judging the gilts market to be “very distressed” in recent weeks, a view backed by its Financial Policy Committee.

        Investors have also warned that the central bank’s plans to begin selling bonds in its portfolio at the end of this month could destabilise markets.

        The Bank of England said on Tuesday that it had not yet taken a decision on any delay to the bond sale.

        Although 30-year gilt yields have fallen from their recent high of more than 5 per cent to 4.45 per cent on Tuesday, they remain well above the 3.75 per cent level of before the fiscal statement.

        “I’m not sure it’s wise for them to go straight away because the market’s so fragile at the moment,” said Jim Leaviss, chief investment officer for public fixed income at M&G Investments.

        Sandra Holdsworth, UK head of rates at Aegon Asset Management, said: “When they’ve had to support the market so recently, I’m not sure they can go ahead without risking more problems.”

        The BoE’s shift is set to put on hold the start of the UK’s unwinding of QE — a process other central banks have begun in order to reduce swollen balance sheets and increase their freedom of manoeuvre in any future monetary or financial crisis.
        …

        1. “Although 30-year gilt yields have fallen from their recent high of more than 5 per cent to 4.45 per cent on Tuesday,…”

          How does a 4.45 percent yield square with 10%+ inflation? Not very well, I guess…

    2. “prices rose at the fastest pace since 1980 last month, driving inflation back to a 40-year high”

      What were interest rates like back then?

  43. Obama’s a ‘little late’ to party of criticizing wokeism: Greg Gutfeld
    Fox News
    Oct 17, 2022 ‘The Five’ co-hosts discuss former President Barack Obama’s podcast comments blasting Democrats for cancel culture and telling them to stop being a ‘buzzkill.’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-tkbtvurrc

    8:42.

    1. Hopefully this will increase the exodus out of gooberment schools. The number of vaccines kids are required to attend school is already unbelievable.

      1. That would be nice, but I still can’t believe people conolied with the vaccine schedule as it is now in the first place.

    2. My son has an IEP, which in the state of Commifornia surprisingly supersedes any vaccine requirements.

    3. The sea dee sea director lady is a loathsome creature. As she is from the Boston area I was curious and with the world’s most popular search engine in about 30 seconds was able to locate the shack she bought with her likely equally loathsome M.D. husband. They paid a cool 3.2 million for their house (4 miles from where I am sitting) in 2011. The Zestimate! is now 4.75K.

        1. The levels of corruption are completely off the charts.

          As for big pharma, I do not plan on ever getting any type of vaccine again. I have lost all confidence in them.

    1. Updated Wed, Oct 19 2022 5:25 PM EDT
      Stocks snap two-day winning streak as 10-year yield hits highest level since 2008
      Jesse Pound
      Tanaya Macheel

      Stocks moved lower on Wednesday as Wall Street struggled to extend its rally amid a sharp rise in Treasury yields.

      The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.85% to close at 10,680.51. The S&P 500 ticked down 0.67% to 3,695.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 99.99 points, or 0.33%, to finish the day at 30,423.81. The losses ended a two-day winning streak, though all three averages are still up for the week.
      CNBC

      Earnings season is off to a solid start, but Treasury yields remained elevated on Wednesday, suggesting that recession fears are still intact. The 10-year Treasury yield traded as high as 4.136%, the highest level since July 23, 2008.

      “If you keep things simple and say the 10-year Treasury is the risk-free rate that basically the majority of other asset classes in the world are priced off of … that is going to cause choppy markets across the board,” Keith Lerner, co-CIO and chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, said of the bond market volatility.

      “The market is overall hanging in there somewhat, I don’t want to say well, but not as bad as it could be given that 4% is a demarcation line that has really pressured equities,” Lerner added.

      The impact of higher rates is being shown sharply in the housing market, where housing starts fell faster than expected in September, the Census Bureau said on Wednesday.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/18/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

    2. Dow Jones Futures Fall As Yields Keep Rising; Tesla Skids On Earnings, Elon Musk Comments
      ED CARSON 10:53 PM ET 10/19/2022

      Dow Jones futures fell overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with Treasury yields still rising and Asian markets hitting new lows. Tesla fell on mixed earnings even as CEO Elon Musk hinted at a “meaningful” TSLA stock buyback, and predicted an “epic” fourth quarter. But he also admitted that the EV giant is seeing weakness in China and Europe.

      The stock market rally attempt lost ground Wednesday, as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to a fresh 14-year high.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-stocks-fall-treasury-yields-soar-tesla-earnings-mixed-elon-musk-teases-buyback/

    3. Real Estate
      Mortgage demand drops to a 25-year low, as interest rates climb
      Published Wed, Oct 19 20227:00 AM EDTUpdated Wed, Oct 19 20221:39 PM EDT
      Diana Olick

      Key Points
      – Demand for mortgages to buy a home and to refinance fell again, as interest rates kept rising.
      – Mortgage demand hit its lowest level since 1997, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
      – The number of borrowers who can benefit from refinancing is at a record low.
      – Mortgage rate on 30-year fixed loan soars to 7.22 percent

      Mortgage demand, which has suffered four straight months of declines, fell last week to the lowest level since 1997, as interest rates continued to rise.

      Homebuyers’ demand for mortgages dropped 4% for the week and was 38% lower than the same week one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 7% compared with the previous week, in seasonally adjusted terms. Demand was 86% lower than the same week one year ago.

      The number of borrowers who can benefit from refinancing is at a record low. Interest rates were so low during the first two years of the Covid pandemic that the vast majority of borrowers with higher rates already refinanced.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/19/mortgage-demand-drops-to-a-25-year-low-as-interest-rates-climb.html

      1. “Mortgage demand drops to a 25-year low”

        2022 – 25 = 1997, by my math.

        They could have just said, ‘Mortgage demand drops to pre-Housing Bubble level.’

    4. Investing
      Editors’ Pick
      The Yield Curve, A Reliable Recession Indicator, Just Sounded An Alarm
      Simon Moore
      Senior Contributor
      I show you how to save and invest.
      Oct 19, 2022, 1:12pm EDT

      U.S. government 3-month rates rose above the yield on 10-year bonds, according to U.S. Treasury data for Oct. 18, 2022. This is fairly unusual and researchers regard this as among the best indicators that a U.S. recession is coming on a 6-18 month view. This indicator is among the best track records in forecasting recessions across a range of economic variables. It has successfully called all recessions in recent decades without any false alarms. That’s impressive, and among a sea of indicators, this one deserves some attention.
      …
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/10/19/recession-alarm-just-sounded-by-yield-curve-indicator-with-stellar-track-record/?sh=12259df69fee

  48. Tucker is doing a segment right now on the racist Tiffany Cross who evidently is an MSNBC host and her race baiting on air rants.

    This is what popped up in a quick search.

    MSNBC’S TIFFANY CROSS SAYS NFL HANDLING OF TUA, WHO IS NOT BLACK, PROVES WHITE OWNERS DON’T CARE ABOUT BLACK BODIES LIKE HIS

    by BOBBY BURACK
    11 days agoupdated 11 days ago

    “To see all these black men crashing into each other with a bunch of white owners, white coaches, and the complete disregard for black bodies and black life … it just represents a larger issue,” Cross argued.

    https://www.outkick.com/tiffany-cross-thinks-nfl-samoan-tua-tagovailoa-is-black/

    1. It has become more than clear that the only minority that matters to the Left are blacks. Asians, Hispanics, Pacific Islanders (of which this Tua dude is one) simply don’t matter. They are now considered de facto white.

      And right now the Dems are doing everything they can to cancel the Mexicans on the LA City Council. They even rounded up some non Mexican Hispanics to protest against them.

      The message to Mexicans is clear: they are to kneel and bow to blacks.

  50. Shock Video: Woman Beaten, Thrown Off Bus by Mob of ‘Juveniles’
    by Dan Lyman

    October 19th 2022, 4:22 pm

    Older woman brutally attacked after asking rowdy youths to curb foul language

    Breaking News
    @NewsJunkieBreak
    ·
    🚨VIDEO: Elderly woman pushed off a bus by other passengers in Washington
    The following media includes potentially sensitive content.
    5:31 AM · Oct 19, 2022

    https://twitter.com/NewsJunkieBreak/status/1582665774530842624?s=20&t=0rwzjMUDpQf1us_sM0N6Fw

    1. Yahoo
      Benzinga
      A Recession May Just Prove To Be A Great Opportunity For Real Estate Investment
      Mark Gilman
      Wed, October 19, 2022 at 6:38 AM·3 min read

      It seems like a tale of the past, but the U.S. saw record low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021; concurrently, real estate investment soared. But the tried-and-true adage that real estate investment is a long-term proposition has never been more true today as mortgage interest rates steadily climb. As real estate prices come down and a recession looms, the question of whether now is a good time to invest in real estate takes center stage

      Savvy investors understand that real estate has been a consistent hedge against inflation. The low interest rates of a year ago made property affordable at first, but the real estate market adjusted by increasing home values. And now, as interest rates go north of 7%, many buyers are finding themselves priced out of the market.

      That situation presents an opportunity for rental property investors who can increase rental rates as home inventory dwindles and buyers, priced out of the market, seek temporary housing until interest rates decline. This model can lead to consistent passive income for investors.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-may-just-prove-great-113822588.html

    2. Breaking
      Investing
      Housing Market Recession: Home Builders Warn Collapse Is ‘Unsustainable’—And Prices Could Tumble Another 20%
      Jonathan Ponciano
      Forbes Staff
      Oct 18, 2022,11:43am EDT
      Updated Oct 18, 2022, 03:10pm EDT
      Home Prices Suggest Housing Bubble Brewing In U.S.

      Home builder confidence plunged for a tenth straight month in October as rising interest rates continued to weaken housing demand—prompting economists to warn an unexpected rise in new home sales last month may be short-lived and prices may be on the brink of collapse, the National Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday.

      Key Facts

      Builder confidence in the market for new homes dropped 8 points to 38—just half the level of six months ago and its lowest level since 2012—excluding the historic plunge at the start of the pandemic in 2020, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Tuesday.

      The NAHB called the ongoing collapse of confidence further evidence that rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks and still-elevated home prices continue to weaken the housing market, noting traffic of prospective buyers has also slumped to the lowest level in a decade, while the outlook for sales also worsened.
      …
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/10/18/housing-market-recession-home-builders-warn-collapse-is-unsustainable-and-prices-could-tumble-another-20/?sh=329ef58d484f

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